On The Downward Slope Of The Peak
A report from the South Florida Business Journal. “Many of South Florida’s leading condo experts said a slowdown in sales will likely prevent some projects from breaking ground, but the long term view for Miami’s condo market remains positive and another meltdown doesn’t appear imminent. The region’s leading condo builders and designers acknowledged that the sales pace for new units has slowed, and it appears the strengthening of the dollar against foreign currencies is to blame. Kevin Malony, principal of residential developer Property Markets Group, said nine months ago he spoke with a contractor who had nine jobs under contract, but he recently spoke to that contractor and he’s down to three jobs because some projects fell through. Still, he’s not worried about the market.”
“‘You are not in an economy where real estate in Miami will have a downturn, unless you believe we will have a national housing crisis,’ Malony said. ‘There’s a lot of stuff that isn’t going to get built. The first-time developers who are building in fringe areas, a lot of those won’t go through pre-sales.’”
“According to CraneSpotters.com, there are 16 condo projects in South Florida that are no longer proceeding as planned because they were canceled, went back to the drawing board with their plans, or converted to apartments. ‘If I have any concerns about the market today it has nothing to do with the condo inventory,’ said Anthony Graziano, senior managing director, Integra Realty Resources. ‘The biggest risk is rental inventory and supply pipeline; not at the city level but at county level with the amount of rentals under construction and the rent they expect [to charge]. The average rent downtown is $2,500 to $3,000 per month and that is a big number. You need to count on serious high wage employment growth to make that.’”
The Advertiser in Louisiana. “Falling oil prices may have landed squarely on the local housing market, sales figures for October suggest, with the number of home sales plunging in October. Bill Bacque, chairman of the Realtor Association Multiple Listing Service, said that home buyers may have found their best opportunity for prices, with available home choices increasing, demand sinking and interest rates projected to climb next month. ‘Realistic pricing is certainly becoming more important in attracting buyers,’ Bacque said in his monthly report on the market.”
“‘It is both logical and prudent to conclude from the past three-month’s numbers that our local economic woes brought on by the challenges faced by our oil industry is beginning to show its effect in our housing sector,’ Bacque said.”
The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “Builder Gary Tesch senses a growing economic skittishness in some of the Houston neighborhoods where his company builds houses. Prospective buyers, he said, are visiting model homes three or four times before signing a contract. ‘The buying process has elongated for the buyers out there today,’ said Tesch, president of McGuyer Homebuilders. ‘There’s competition. There are choices. There’s opportunity out there for buyers. They’re seeing the headlines of what’s going to happen in Houston and oil prices. They’re thinking, are they better off waiting or pulling the trigger?’”
“Compared with this time last year, many seem to be waiting. Sales of newly built homes were off sharply in September, with the number of closings falling 27 percent from 2014, a monthly report from housing research firm Metrostudy shows. ‘This is kind of the sign the market has peaked and we’re on the downward slope of that peak, but we’ll still be able to sell lots of houses,’ said Scott Davis, Metrostudy’s Houston regional director, adding that closings for the year are flat.”
“David Weekley Homes recently promoted a $30,000 ‘decorator allowance’ on some of its homes in Cinco Ranch that sold for $350,000 and up. Through the end of the year, McGuyer Homebuilder brands Coventry Homes and Plantation Homes are offering buyers up to $50,000 toward closing costs or upgrades when buying a recently completed or under-construction home in communities throughout this area. In another indication of the slowing market, the average cancellation rate jumped to 26 percent in September. A cancellation is when a buyer backs out of a contract before closing. Typically, the cancellation rate is below 20 percent.”
The Orange County Register in California. “For two years, Orange County’s new-home market soared. Then sales dropped. According to figures from data firm CoreLogic, new home sales have declined year-over-year in Orange County for 10 straight months, with volume down 21 percent. It could be that Orange County builders are victims of their own success, experts said. New home prices also may have gotten too high, even for Orange County, the region’s priciest housing market.”
“And purchases by Chinese buyers, who made up a significant portion of new home buyers in recent years, are starting to wane following currency and stock market volatility in their country. ‘I’m seeing slower sales at the higher price point pretty much everywhere,’ said John Burns, an Irvine-based housing consultant. ‘And the Orange County new home market is heavily skewed to million-dollar homes.’”
“The price gap between resale and new homes this year is $250,000, according to CoreLogic. For some buyers, that can mean a 20 percent to 25 percent down payment on a new home, vs. paying 30 percent to 35 percent down on an existing home, said Russ Valone, CEO of MarketPointe Realty Advisors, a new home market analysis firm. ‘The gap between the resale market values and the new home market has widened considerably,’ Valone said. ‘A lot of people are going, ‘Nah … I’m not going to buy a new home.’”
“Rising land costs – as high as $3 million to $4 million an acre for finished lots in some parts of Orange County – also are pushing up new home prices, added Mike Balsamo, chief executive of the Building Industry Association-Orange County. ‘Land prices are forcing builders to build too large of a home on too small of a lot at too high of a price, and that’s definitely meeting some resistance,’ said Mark Boud, president of Real Estate Economics in San Clemente.”
North Dallas, TX Housing Prices Plunge 30% YoY; Prices Declines Accelerate
http://www.zillow.com/north-dallas-dallas-tx/home-values/
why does Zillow predict 6% rise
they are losing any credibility
Fort Lauderdale, FL Housing Meltdown; Prices Plunge 14% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/victoria-park-fort-lauderdale-fl/home-values/
Oh come on! At least post valid data.
Victoria Park Market Health
Data through Sep 30, 2015
No recent data Less healthy
No data Average days on Zillow
No data Homes with negative equity (14.4% US Avg)
No data Delinquent on mortgage (4.8% US Avg)
It is valid. It doesn’t get any more current than Sept 2015. Prices fell 14% YoY. See for yourself.
http://www.zillow.com/market-report/11-15/269219/victoria-park-fort-lauderdale-fl.xls?rt=14
I have noticed that Zillow data that is posted is generally accurate, but what they do is stop posting when the data gets bad. For Palm beach County: http://www.zillow.com/palm-beach-county-fl/home-values/
No data on “Average days on Zillow” since August?
No rental data. Period.
Same for Broward County, where Ft. Lauderdale is.
I’ve been periodically checking the “Market Trends” on Movoto (picked that up from Ben and HA, thx); not regularly, but every once in a while. Earlier this year, the deltas vis-a-vis some of the “1 Year Ago” numbers were getting pretty ugly (i.e. really encouraging). In just the last couple of weeks, the “1 Year Ago” numbers have been blanked out from all the markets I’ve been looking at. (I don’t know if it’s a temporary thing, and I don’t know if they’re doing it everywhere, but I did check a few markets on both coasts to confirm that it’s not local).
You are correct. I speculate theyve pulled the information because the price declines were trending deeper and were spreading geographically.
Pressure from the Housing Crime Syndicate? Likely.
I also picked up Movoto based on posts here but the data seems so out of whack for certain markets and time frames. Feels difficult to trust it as a reliable source.
Actually their data is directly from MLS. It’s very accurate.
Pacific Beach(San Diego), CA Housing Prices Crater 12% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/pacific-beach-san-diego-ca/home-values/
Portland, OR Housing Prices Crater 19% YoY
“Rising land costs – as high as $3 million to $4 million an acre for finished lots in some parts of Orange County – also are pushing up new home prices, added Mike Balsamo,”
You were dumb enough to pay it when everyone else knew better.
You’re screwed.
Indians, Persians and Chinese mostly. The people who bought in the OC in the 1970s when it was a decent place, have long fled. Now it it a cage with way too many rates and an Applebees on every corner.
Cheesecake factory, not applebees. Get your facts straight. And hey, our cages all have really nice central fountains as a break from the constant shopping.
Unprecedented Sub-Prime Lending/b>
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-08/three-ads-summarize-current-state-subprime-housing-market
The precedent was set in 2003-2007.
Current sub-prime lending exceeds anything that occurred in the past thus current conditions are unprecedented.
No, no it doesn’t. 80% LTV was NOT necessary for previous liar loans.
Good point. As I recall they were 125% LTV’s back then. Are you sure the same thing isn’t occurring?
Very certain.
I’ve seen signs for 125% financing very recently.
“‘Land prices are forcing builders to build too large of a home on too small of a lot at too high of a price, and that’s definitely meeting some resistance,’ said Mark Boud, president of Real Estate Economics in San Clemente.”
What seems screwy to me is how the measurement value of RE property is determined not by the square footage of the lot but instead it is measured by the square footage of the building that sits on top of the lot.
A builder has no control of the size of the lot but he has absolute control of the size of the building. Same with a homeowner; If a homeowner wants to increase the value of his property then all he has to do is add a second story. Adding a second story adds more square footage and hence adds value.
It’s screwy IMO, but there it is.
This not only holds for property that is locate in cities but it also holds for property that is located in the vast expanses of the California desert. Drive through the desert and you will see miles and miles of vacant land and then suddenly come across a section of desert where two-story houses are built stacked up against each other just the way they are built in the cities. Drive through Victorville and you will see what I mean.
Land prices have doubled or tripled in just a few years all over the place. Media lets it slip out but doesn’t give it any notice.
Land prices have doubled or tripled in just a few years all over the place ??
Yep…And a large part of the reason around here is because the regional and local planners have changed their tune over the last five years on density…50+ units per acre are now very common..
‘The case for buying a home you can’t afford’
‘Here’s a happy reminder if you’re someone who finds escape by perusing real estate listings for unobtainable homes: A mortgage that strains your budget now will be a lighter burden a few years, and a couple of job promotions, down the line.’
‘Young professionals willing to stretch their budgets now should consider Boston, Seattle, and Washington, D.C., among other cities, according to a new report from Trulia. In New Haven, Conn., the typical millennial (defined by Trulia as an adult between ages 25 and 34) can expect to spend 37 percent of her income on housing in the first year of her mortgage. Three years later, though, the same homebuyer’s monthly payments will fall below 31 percent of her income, according to Trulia’s estimates. By the last year of her 30-year mortgage, she’ll be spending 11 percent of her income on housing.’
‘Trulia built its model on the rough assumption that in three decades, today’s 25-year-olds will earn the same as today’s 55-year-olds. (It also baked in some inflation.) That seems like a reasonable basis for comparing local housing markets, but an overly broad one for making financial decisions.’
‘The other thing that stands out in the Trulia report is the low likelihood that young workers will ever be able to afford homes in California. In San Francisco, the typical millennial will still be spending 48 percent of her income on housing in the last year of her mortgage. In San Jose, the figure is 38 percent. In other words, the median home will still be unaffordable to the median millennial when that group is approaching retirement. It’s a grim picture up and down the coast.’
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/case-buying-home-cant-afford-050103486.html
It ends with this:
‘California, to judge from the above, looks destined to become the land of the elderly.’
And dogs, more dogs than children in the bay area.
And dogs, more dogs than children in the bay area ??
Not surprising if that is true…
Yikes, a typical Yahoo puff piece with some very bad advice…basing finances on unrealistic rosy projections has many California counties flirting with bankruptcy. AFAIK the entire Bay Area does not have more dogs than children but that IS the case for San Francisco from what I’ve read…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10932706/San-Francisco-where-dogs-have-their-day.html
“Trulia built its model on the rough assumption that in three decades, today’s 25-year-olds will earn the same as today’s 55-year-olds.”
___________________________/
Like that’s going to happen. Once your read that sentence, there’s no reason for anyone to read any further. We already spent our future; that’s what financialization is.
The crazy thing is the divergence of prices (homes and land).
Land prices in places like Orange County absolutely have gone up as you note.
However, if you drive an hour east, land values haven’t moved in the past 2 years.
The difference in prices between coastal markets and more inland markets in California is as wide as people in the industry can remember.
prices between coastal markets and more inland markets in California is as wide as people in the industry can remember ??
Yep…I stay at a RV park on a golf course in Chowchilla occasionally…Its called Pheasant Run…Its a failed development although the golf course does still operate…Hundreds of undeveloped lots & half finished houses..Lots of vacant houses…Although prices are slightly above the lows of 2010-11 they are no more that 25% above those lows and they are still
50% + below the peak in 2007…
‘prices are slightly above the lows of 2010-11 they are no more that 25% above those lows’
More signs of a bubble. I drove past that place years ago and saw the half built shacks. There isn’t any reason for prices to have gone up at all. And it’s interesting the lows of 2010-11 coincide with when most markets “bottomed” as Bernanke and the rest of the REIC got bubble traction.
Chowchilla? You mean the place that has the women’s state prison? They use to have a wire harness plant in that prison, but I think that was shut down for silly reasons.
A builder has no control of the size of the lot but he has absolute control of the size of the building.
??
Builders often times are the ones doing the subdivisions, or at least communicating to land developers what size lots they want. Land developers don’t do their work in a vacuum, nor do builders simply wait around to find out what lots are available. They speak to lots of people. And their “likes” and “dislikes” are well known.
And developers are limited by what the City will allow.
And the lot size in large part dictates the building size (there are required setbacks, height limitations, etc.). But within those restrictions, the builder does what they want.
“Developers” are the guys with the payola envelopes.
“The case for buying a house you can’t afford”. By Ralph, a housing economist at Trulia.
I want to make a joke, but what could top that?
‘purchases by Chinese buyers, who made up a significant portion of new home buyers in recent years, are starting to wane’
So New Zealand, then Australia, now Orange county.
‘I’m seeing slower sales at the higher price point pretty much everywhere’
“The coal industry likes to point to China adding a new coal-fired power plant every week as evidence that coal demand will pick up in the future, but the reality on the ground is rather different,” according to the report. “Capacity utilization of the plants has been plummeting. China is now adding one idle coal-fired power plant per week.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-08/global-coal-consumption-headed-for-biggest-decline-in-history
Prices, profits and capacity utilization all falling together. When the host shrinks, the parasites will get thin also.
Arch Coal …
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ACI
Here’s a longer view of Arch Coal. At one time the price was pushed up to almost $700 a share, then … oooooops:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ACI&ty=c&ta=0&p=m
The long term debt to equity ratio of Arch Coal is currently at 3.67. IMO this means the debt holders are on thin ice - thin ice unless the China Miracle re-establishes itself.
(fat chance)
The point here is:
The first group of people to take a hit with Arch Coal were the stockholders. The next group of people that are due to take a hit are the debt holders.
No dollar will be allowed to escape.
Infrastructure is supposed to serve something, but with China, infrastructure is an end in itself. Who cares if idle coal plants are being built? Build more. Unnecessary steel mills? Build more. Ghost cities? Build more. The country has to grow at 7% per year, you see. The world has never seen this kind of overcapacity.
‘China’s economy is very bad now. There is a Chinese saying that it is doomed if staying in China, but it could delay the doom if going out’
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9340
‘As the Federal Reserve readies to raise interest rates, on the other side of the world one asset class is bracing for the fallout — bricks and mortar in Hong Kong. In the past seven years, Hong Kong property has risen by more than 150%, and in that period most analysts have just about given up trying to benchmark prices to any fundamental yardstick. What we do know is the two big drivers have been the U.S. on one side and China on the other.’
‘Thanks to the dollar peg, Hong Kong maintained basement interest rates at the same time its gross domestic product was strengthening due to buoyant mainland Chinese demand. Brokerage firm Jefferies refers to this in a new report as an “irregular economic mechanism,” which caused this property overshoot. But now these twin drivers are poised to reverse.’
‘A consensus is forming that we are at a turning point; property transactions slumped to a 19-month low in October, and last week the government was unable to sell a plot of land as all nine bids came in below the reserve price.’
‘Analysts are also calling time on Hong Kong’s property bull run. Jefferies became the latest to predict the end of the property bull run, forecasting a 30% fall in home prices and a new “normalization” of the market. Another indicator of lower prices is the share-price weakness in developer stocks, which are now at back at 2011 levels.’
‘Back in August 2012, Barclays urged caution on local property, noting the price-to-household-income ratio had reached 11 times, against a long-term average of 7.1 times income. Today that ratio has blown out to a massive 17 times household income, according to Jefferies’s latest calculation.’
‘What made that Barclay’s report stand out was that it introduced a novel approach to analyzing Hong Kong housing, suggesting apartments should be likened to “deposit boxes,” where their main function was for somewhere for investors to store wealth, rather than a place for people to actually live.’
‘This thinking was based on the declining number of owner-occupiers and a reduction in overall leverage in the market as cash-rich investors priced genuine home buyers out of the market.’
‘This analogy appeared prescient when, in recent years, developers introduced a new phenomenon of building microapartments with some coming in at 180 square feet. So small were these properties, it led to a debate whether there was more space in a cell in Stanley prison.’
‘China’s economy is very bad now. There is a Chinese saying that it is doomed if staying in China, but it could delay the doom if going out’
By all accounts these days, doom is currently a leading Chinese export product.
Unnecessary steel mills? Build more. Ghost cities? Build more ??
The purpose is not out of need…Its purpose is as a employment center…
I see that point, but then why not employ people to dig a ditch and fill it back in? Probably because that activity wouldn’t support a superstructure of grifting, corruption and fraud.
‘we’ll still be able to sell lots of houses,’ said Scott Davis, Metrostudy’s Houston regional director’
Sure you are Scott, why you can undercut the people that bought six months ago for starters:
“David Weekley Homes recently promoted a $30,000 ‘decorator allowance’ on some of its homes in Cinco Ranch that sold for $350,000 and up. Through the end of the year, McGuyer Homebuilder brands Coventry Homes and Plantation Homes are offering buyers up to $50,000 toward closing costs or upgrades”
You’re still making money. And when you run out of dopes, cut $100k off and see what happens! We’ll know when prices are lower than your costs when the trailer disappears, you don’t answer the phone and you stiff the subcontractors.
I got an ad video the other day for 20% cash back on a new Chevy car. If you bought a house and a car, what would you do with all that extra money?
I’m going to post this in this way because I only get so many views:
‘It’s starting to feel a little bit like 2007′: Why Oakland risks missing …
San Francisco Business Times (blog)-15 hours ago
… will end before the city adds much-needed housing and office for more jobs. … Although the “B word” – bubble – wasn’t used, there are now signs of 2007, …
“Many of South Florida’s leading condo experts said a slowdown in sales will likely prevent some projects from breaking ground, but the long term view for Miami’s condo market remains positive and another meltdown doesn’t appear imminent. … Kevin Malony, principal of residential developer Property Markets Group, said nine months ago he spoke with a contractor who had nine jobs under contract, but he recently spoke to that contractor and he’s down to three jobs because some projects fell through. Still, he’s not worried about the market.”
________________________/
There’s such a cultish optimism about these people that I wonder how many of them are drugged. Not worried … positive long term … it’s all good. Without panicked or illicit foreign money, who’s going to buy or lease those condos? There aren’t very many people in this state who can afford a $3,000 monthly rent.
It’s very telling that these luxury condos are being bought with the intention of renting. And the price per square foot is way higher than 2006. The condo king says in the article, “we won’t take less than 50% down”, then explains that he took 30% down to sell the last units in one tower.
I had a run it with a pair of them who tried to harass me out of my cheap rental. They were coke-heads driving fine vehicles and looking good. Thugs and pigs.
One of the more amusing episodes in our house-rental search in 2006 was the place where the realtor was audibly sniffing and staring at a stock-trading website on his laptop.
“Bacque, chairman of the Realtor Association Multiple Listing Service, said that home buyers may have found their best opportunity for prices, with available home choices increasing, demand sinking and interest rates projected to climb next month.”
For how many years running has the near-term prospect of higher rates been a reason to hurry up and buy now?
At least since ZIRP has been in effect.
“These Are The 20 Worst Cities In The US - Spot The Common Theme”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-06/these-are-20-worst-cities-us-spot-common-theme
You guessed it. All 20 of the worst cities in the US are in Californica.
But that’s obviously Russian propaganda ;<)
Only US Government-approved media sources are to be trusted. And according to those, new jobs are up, and life is grand. Now get out and go shopping! We’ve got to keep those Chinese manufacturing plants busy.