November 12, 2015

Prime For A Value-Add Strategy

The Associated Press reports on Oregon. “Portland has been a magnet for young, creative adults for over a decade. But the city’s popularity has had another effect: Those who helped make it cool can’t afford to live here anymore. Evictions and skyrocketing rents are putting apartments out of reach for many, especially those working part-time, low-wage or artistic jobs. It’s even harder to afford a house. The hot market has led some rents to double or triple, even in areas once considered less desirable, said Justin Buri of Portland-based Community Alliance of Tenants. Entire apartment complexes are cleared out, the evictions followed by new owners renovating and increasing rents.”

“Susan Langenes and her husband, both professional musicians, lived for over a decade in an apartment complex with other artists. But last year, when their building was sold, the tenants received no-cause evictions. After new owners renovated the complex, Langenes said, rents tripled. She and her husband ended up in Milwaukie, a small town 5 miles away. The best solution? Experts say it’s shifting policies to make building new housing easier. And accepting change — including the city’s popularity and the fact that adding higher-density housing ultimately benefits everyone. ‘People hate new development,’ said Portland economist Joe Cortright. ‘But it’s the price of success.’”

The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. “Boston has some of the highest rent costs in the country. As MotherJones reported last week 87.4 percent of the Hub’s two-bedroom units rent for more than $2,000 per month. Crazy right? Well, not so much. It turns out some of Boston’s luxury rental units are going for a lot more than that – in fact, some of them are going for close to 40 times $2,000 per month. Listing service RENTCafé looked at Boston’s luxury rentals to create a top 10 list of the priciest units for lease in the city today. You might be shocked at not only the amenities (and crazy views) each apartment has, but also what people are expected to pay for them.”

The Puget Sound Business Journal in Washington. “The developer of a 41-story luxury apartment project in Seattle is casting a wide net to catch tenants with different tastes — and budgets. It’s aimed at appealing to ‘the widest audience of apartment users,’ said Scott Koppelman, senior VP of development of Chicago-headquartered AMLI Residential, which is developing the glass-and-metal panel tower. The tower is part of a crop of new apartment projects, including one where units go for as much as $7,525 a month, designed to appeal to the employees of Amazon and other tech companies.”

From Miami Today in Florida. “A downtown site in Miami chosen for a pair of 93-story towers will now become home to a far shorter development. Phase one is to be a condo tower called Vice, from developer Property Markets Group, or PMG. Vice will have an amenity deck with a pool and a bike storage area, said architect Sandy Peaceman. The project also calls for a dog park. The parking facility is designed with a metal mesh façade – a skin like a giant cheese grater and similar to a new garage completed this year in the Design District. The difference is the towering art element on one end of the garage – the image of a human face from artist Javier Martin.”

“Board member Neil Hall asked if the residences would include affordable one-bedroom units. Mr. Peaceman said the units will be smaller and priced toward the ‘high end.’ Mr. Hall asked who the developers are trying to attract. Mr. Peaceman said they’re those young professionals more apt to use public transportation. ‘I’m not sure they can afford this,’ Mr. Hall responded.”

The Phoenix Business Journal in Arizona. “A cutting-edge infill development on Grand Avenue in Phoenix will have one unit set aside for Airbnb rentals. The Containers on Grand development in downtown Phoenix has eight apartments fashioned out of 16 seaport shipping containers. StarkJames partners Brian Stark and Wesley James designed and developed of the avante-garde apartments. They are the first apartments made out of shipping containers in the western U.S.”

“The stretch of Grand south of the Arizona State Fairgrounds has long been a collection of older properties, machine shops and some low-end motels. The Containers development is on the site of a former used-car lot. The Containers on Grand units are approximately 740 square feet and going to be rented out for $1,000 per month. ‘This is a true team of pioneers who have created something brand-new in Phoenix,’ said Stanton.”

Multi Housing News on Colorado. “HFF has recently announced the closing of The Retreat at Park Meadows—a 518-unit, Class A multifamily community in Littleton, Colo.—on behalf of PNC Realty Investors Inc., acting as investment advisor to the AFL-CIO Building Investment Trust. Though the sale price has not been disclosed, data collected by Yardi Matrix shows that the buyer, Invesco Real Estate, paid a whopping $125 million, or an average of $241,313 per unit, to acquire the asset.”

“‘With its low-density design and large unit sizes, Retreat at Park Meadows is a very unique asset within the Denver market and was highly sought after by investors,’ said Managing Director Jordan Robbins in a statement. ‘The property had not been upgraded since it was built 15 years ago and is prime for a new owner to complete a value-add strategy for additional growth.’”

From Westword on Colorado. “By the way the term is being used around this city these days, one would think Denver is the ‘luxury’ capital of America. As new development bullies its way into our neighborhoods, ‘luxury’ is the ubiquitous term used to sell it — ‘luxury apartments,’ ‘luxury high-rises’ and ‘luxury living in the city’ are offered around every corner. With luxury comes a high price tag, of course. I’m beginning to think that in Denver in 2015, ‘luxury’ is just another word for ‘too expensive for most of us.’”

“Last month, South Park nailed the ‘luxury’ issue with its rollout of SoDoSoPa, in an episode titled ‘The City Part of Town.’ And for those very privileged few, the most private and exclusive ownership opportunity is here,’ the slick male voice proclaimed over a muted soundtrack of sushi-restaurant techno. It sounded just like the real-life marketing campaigns for RiNo and LoHi and SloHi and every other made-up Denver neighborhood that has been Columbused, reclaimed and sold to the highest bidder over the last decade.’”

“‘Luxury’ doesn’t have to be a bad word in Denver. But until we face the real issues going on in our city, it will continue to be a divisive term separating the haves from the have-nots. And if there’s anything I miss about the idea of a long-dead ‘old Denver,’ it’s that we used to feel like a place where everyone could afford to belong.”




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57 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 04:45:41

‘Two Seattle City Council members say the situation at one South Seattle apartment building is emblematic of displacement and gentrification occurring throughout the city. Councilmembers Kshama Sawant and Nick Licata say landlords eager to take advantage of the hot housing market are increasing rents to push low-income tenants out.’

‘Sahro Farah and her neighbors say their landlord gave them an ultimatum after buying 6511 Rainier Ave. S. this summer: Sign new leases with higher rents or get out. She says the rent for the two-bedroom apartment she shares with her five children was scheduled to increase Thursday from $550 a month to $1,550.’

‘The three-story, 18-unit structure was sold to 6511 Rainier LLC in July, according to King County records. Valdez said Haglund isn’t to blame because he bought the building from an owner who had allowed it to deteriorate. “Carl’s going to make improvements, but in order to make improvements he needs money and the money has to come from somewhere, from rents,” Valdez said, suggesting the council members should allocate money for repairs if they want to keep the rents down.”

‘He accused Sawant and Licata of “narrative malpractice.”

Comment by scdave
2015-11-12 08:14:22

the two-bedroom apartment she shares with her five children ??

Pumping out children like Guinea pigs….Disgusting…

 
Comment by oxide
2015-11-12 11:06:39

So I guess renters have to pay for maintenance as well as homeowners, if only indirectly?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-11-13 05:45:27

That’s a nice thought but there isn’t enough cashflow to cover principal, interest or taxes.

Pick your poison Donk.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2015-11-13 06:46:21

Or live w 5 children to a bedroom…..

 
 
Comment by Gary D.
2015-11-12 14:11:05

I have lived in San Francisco & never have seen anything like this in my 60 years.People are nuts asking $2500 a sqare ft. for homes that just 10 years ago sold for $500.This is hyperinflation my friends rents are through the roof $3500 for a 1 brm apt. & it’s a dump.
The Federal reserve should have raised rates a year ago .We are going to make South America look tame.Prices for food,health care everything is skyrocketing as small business close throughout the city.A once beautiful home plundered by cheap money and laundered money from Chinese that hide assets in Bay area properties. A crime if you ask me.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-11-13 06:28:25

Give it time. The price declines are just getting traction.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 04:48:20

‘A development team that includes a real estate investment arm of JPMorgan Chase & Co. is offering the ultra-wealthy a rare opportunity to build mansions bigger than the White House on a hillside overlooking Los Angeles. Starting price: $115 million.’

‘Junius Real Estate Partners, part of JPMorgan’s private bank, and developer Domvs London acquired an 11-acre site near the Hotel Bel-Air a year ago, and are preparing it for three estates. “There’s a shortage of trophy properties that are available for sale in this pocket of Los Angeles,” Barry Watts, president of Domvs London, said in a telephone interview. “You’ve got high-net-worth people who want to own multiple homes across the world, and Los Angeles offers something different. If you want to drive your convertible car 12 months a year, it’s a city where you can do that.”

‘Homes priced at more than $100 million are becoming increasingly common as billionaires, seeking places to put cash, shatter sales records from Los Angeles to London. Around the world, five properties sold for $100 million or more last year, and at least 23 others have nine-figure asking prices, according to Christie’s International Real Estate. In the Los Angeles area, the Bel Air homes add to multiple trophy mansions being built, including several on a speculative basis, or without a buyer in place.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 04:55:30

Global elite buys trophy apartments
Financial Times-Sep 29, 2015
The 59th Street buildings are for rich New Yorkers, while 57th Street — dubbed Billionaires’ Row — is for foreigners, according to real estate industry executives.

‘Chicago-based apartment owner Equity Residential, chaired by Sam Zell, said today it plans to sell more than 23,000 of its units to Starwood Capital for $5.37 billion. The deal involves 72 properties in five markets and totals 23,262 apartments, Equity Residential said this morning. The real estate investment trust owns more than 109,000 units.’

‘Equity Residential intends to use most of the proceeds from the sales and others planned in 2016 to pay shareholders a special dividend of between $9 and $11.’

‘The price is an average of about $230,634, Equity Residential said. The 72 properties are in the South Florida, Denver, Seattle, Washington, D.C., and California’s Inland Empire markets. Residential landlords are adding assets and consolidating amid the lowest U.S. homeownership level in decades. Even so, stocks of all the publicly traded rental-home landlords have been sagging this year, with firms struggling to convince investors they can operate the business efficiently.’

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 04:58:33

‘There Are Plenty of New Apartments Being Built—Just Not Affordable Ones’

‘She examines a recent analysis published on a New York Fed blog by the economists Jonathan McCarthy and Richard Peach. They found that price of housing is increasing a whole lot more for those at the bottom of the economic ladder than for those at the top, even when controlling for the possibility that growing utilities bills are responsible for the increasingly heavy burden on renters.’

‘That’s especially troubling because it means that even relatively affordable apartments are quickly becoming too expensive for low-income families, says White. The reason for this gap is what construction projects developers are deciding to pursue these days. The Fed researchers took a look at housing supply and found that there’s a lot more construction happening at the top of the market, where developers and builders are quickly getting luxury apartments to market.’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 05:04:11

‘The chief economist of an Australian challenger bank has warned SMSFs about investing too heavily in residential property. AMP Capital Shane Oliver said Australians are “loaded to gunwales” with property. Mr Oliver said that, on balance, Australia still has a shortage of property, but highlighted that there will be certain suburbs in Sydney and Melbourne that could potentially see an oversupply.’

“For example, the inner-city parts of Melbourne and also the Western suburbs of Sydney. The supply of units is starting to have a dampening impact on prices,” he said. Mr Oliver said off-the-plan residential property is particularly worrisome since investors who have bought off-the-plan may have difficulty getting finance from the banks further down the track.’

‘David McMillan, director of acquisitions at Performance Property Advisory, said an oversupply of off-the-plan apartments, falling property values and recent regulatory changes by APRA will begin to affect purchasers in the months ahead, and believes Melbourne is particularly at risk.’

“For a start, it has too many off-the-plan apartments and not the available rental population to make this type of investment worthwhile,” he said. “In addition the value of generic off-the-plan, high-rise, fringe house and land packages has fallen by 10 per cent to 15 per cent in some pockets of the city, and now with APRA changes beginning to take effect and the big four banks requiring a 20 per cent deposit, those with off-the-plan contracts will have to stump up additional cash to settle.”

“What this means for investors, who say, put down a 10 per cent deposit on a $1 million apartment, they will now need an additional $100,000 to settle,” he said.’

‘While Mr McMillan welcomes the changes made by APRA, saying they will moderate an overheated market, he noted that there will be collateral damage. “Those most affected will be people who can least afford it – often those close to retirement who have used their life savings to purchase property via their SMSFs.”

‘Mr McMillian noted that the finger should be pointed at unscrupulous advisers, accountants and financial planners for herding their clients into risky investments because they stand to pocket commissions of up to nine per cent on the purchase price of the property.’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 05:14:17

‘The ritzy Buckhead Atlanta development has encountered a potential setback, with one of the project’s more anticipated retailers said to be in doubt and the opening of a highly-touted steakhouse delayed until sometime in 2016.’

‘The development covers six city blocks and eight acres in the heart of Buckhead Village, with a first phase involving 370 high-end apartments, luxury retail and dining and office space. The developer recently went before city planning boards to show off a second phase, now described on the company’s website as including more retail and a 19-story residential tower with 135 condos. Other developers have planned major high-rise and mid-rise apartment projects nearby.’

‘Doug Mauk, president of Builders Steel Supply in Lilburn, filed a lien against an OliverMcMillan subsidiary and LDV seeking nearly $80,000 for work on the American Cut space. “I got guys beating down my door wanting me to pay them,” he said.’

Comment by taxpayers
2015-11-12 05:32:34

HA can live in downtown Atlanta for $50 a sq ft
=dead honkey

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 08:28:23

‘I got guys beating down my door wanting me to pay them’

A guy in the biz told me once, “If you haven’t been bankrupt at least once, you haven’t been around very long.”

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 05:19:44

‘Next for Albuquerque’s Rembe: More luxury apartments’

‘Under construction and now vertical is a three-story mixed-use apartment complex with retail spaces on the bottom floor. Rembe said the last phase will include a 50-unit high-end apartment complex, which will be built on a vacant lot behind the existing buildings. Details are still being finalized, but Rembe said the building will likely be three to four stories tall with high-end urban rental units.’

“I’m trying to attract high-income baby boomers,” Rembe said. “I want to push the rents on these.”

Comment by taxpayers
2015-11-12 08:07:57

close to mobile meth labs?

 
Comment by snake charmer
2015-11-12 12:07:58

It seems like the new global business model is, one person owning or leasing ten houses is just as good as ten people owning or leasing ten houses. Maybe even better.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 05:24:19

‘Price slashing has spread to luxury homes after a loss-making deal was recorded on The Peak, prompting developers to rush more units for sale to the market. A 2,377-square-foot apartment at Stewart Terrace on Peak Road was sold for HK$45 million, or HK$18,931 per sq ft, 40 percent lower than the last deal at the same low-rise development on The Peak.’

‘The flat’s owner, an expatriate, bought the unit in 2008 for HK$50 million. Together with transaction charges, the owner’s loss is estimated at almost HK$7 million.’

I was listening to a UHS radio show yesterday and they were giving stats for high end shacks in the Phoenix area. Lots of price slashing too, including a place listed at 16 million, closed for 7 million.

 
Comment by taxpayers
2015-11-12 05:30:43

see Portlandia =cool show

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 05:32:03

‘Renters in downtown Chicago feeling the pinch of escalating monthly prices could see relief as new apartments are being built faster than landlords are likely to fill them, which could translate into more stable or even declining rents over the next few years, according to a report released this week.’

‘With a record 3,100 rental units coming online this year, followed by 3,500 and 4,500 units in subsequent years, supply will soon outpace demand, said the report on the state of the downtown rental and condominium markets. And occupancy has slipped to 93.7 percent, down half a percent from last year.’

‘So a market currently in balance could soon see an excess of apartments, with landlords willing to cut deals to fill them, said Ron DeVries, a vice president of Appraisal Research Counselors.’

“How much rents may or may not fall will really be a function of what the owners are thinking in terms of trying to balance that income with occupancy,” DeVries said. “If your objective is to fill the building more, you’re probably going to need to cut rents in order to capture that demand.”

‘If price relief is coming, it isn’t evident yet for downtown renters. Prices in the newer buildings with more amenities like washers and dryers are called Class A and averaged $2.82 per square foot, up 6 percent from a year ago. The average rent this year among Class A units is $2,436, up from $2,288 last year, DeVries said.’

‘Rents in luxury buildings, the best of the Class A, are even higher, rising nearly 5 percent year over year and now averaging $2,652, he said.’

Comment by rj chicago
2015-11-12 08:49:44

Not with Rummy’s recently announced and approved property tax increase. What a bunch of stooooopid donks!!! Connect the dots there donks!!!

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 05:52:22

‘Lenders will keep pouring money into apartment properties over the next two years, originating about the same volume of loans in 2016 and 2017—with slight increases—that they are likely to close in 2015, according to the latest Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), an industry trade group.’

‘Lenders will likely originate a total of $224 billion in permanent loans to multifamily properties in 2015, according to MBA. That’s a 15 percent increase from the $195 billion they lent in 2014, which in turn marked a 13 percent increase from $173 billion in multifamily originations in 2013. That year marked an 18 percent increase in originations from 2012. Lending volume can’t grow like that forever. The growth this year already caught most experts by surprise.’

“The volume in 2015 is higher than most people anticipated,” says Woodwell.’

‘In the meantime, low interest rates support high property values, encourage potential investors to buy more assets and existing property owners to refinance. All these factors increase demand for financing. And lenders continue to be eager to lend on apartment properties.’

‘The lenders growing the fastest in 2015 include banks and agency lenders, who make loans to apartment properties based on the programs set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They increased the amount of mortgage debt they have outstanding to commercial and apartment properties by $15 billion in the second quarter of 2015. Giant loans on large portfolios of apartment properties account for much of the growth. The federal officials who effectively govern Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also made this growth possible. Halfway through the year, they tinkered with the limits on how much the agencies can lend, so that many loans to affordable and workforce housing properties don’t count towards the agencies’ caps on lending.’

‘Lenders are expected to originate $225 billion in permanent loans on apartment properties in 2016, roughly the same as in 2015. They are expected to originate $227 billion in 2017, a tiny increase. Over the long term, the volume of loans lenders make should continue to gradually grow.’

“There is natural growth in the system,” says Woodwell. “Over the long term, one does see property values increasing, while completions increase the inventory of apartments that need financing.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 05:58:14

‘a 15 percent increase from the $195 billion they lent in 2014, which in turn marked a 13 percent increase from $173 billion in multifamily originations in 2013. That year marked an 18 percent increase in originations from 2012′

Here’s your bubble. In the future there will be a picture next to asshat in the dictionary.

Asshat:

Example

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 06:09:09

‘Passco SVP of realty investments Ogal Claspell tells us the abundance of multifamily construction hasn’t scared the company off, but it’s something to watch. The new product coming on line will put a damper on rent growth, but not significantly, he says. Passco still wants to be in the Austin area and is watching for deals like Lone Oak. The strategy tends to focus on the suburbs, Ogal tells us. He says he’s looking in the suburbs for well-located properties that are reasonable distance to the employment centers and I-35. Lone Oak is about 23 miles from Downtown Austin. (KeyBank Real Estate Capital’s Chris Black arranged financing through Fannie Mae for the property’s acquisition.)’

‘He tells us Passco should close on about $300M in multifamily acquisitions by year-end, including the Lone Oak. Passco leadership wants to double that in 2016.’

‘Austin is more California-like than any other city in Texas, Ogal says, especially in pricing.’

And we all know how marvelous being California-like is, especially in house pricing.

 
Comment by Bluto
2015-11-12 11:03:16

Ah yes…Mel Watt who last year famously made his new visionary pronouncements on finance and housing from the ballroom of a Las Vegas casino.
Sounds like another highly amusing story from The Onion but it really happened.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/what-happened-in-vegas-1413934406

Comment by taxpayers
2015-11-12 13:16:33

3% down w smelly Mel
it’s going to stink later

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-11-12 06:49:38

“There is natural growth in the system…”

Really?

Fast track to $1Tr subprime highrise loans on the taxpayer’s book.

 
 
Comment by homie
2015-11-12 06:19:48

FWIW, Boston.com is to the Boston Globe what the New York Post is to the New York Times. Boston.com is worth a read when you’re burnt out and can’t think, but that’s about it.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 06:42:28

Boston.com was one of the first news websites on the public web, launched in late October 1995 by Boston Globe Electronic Publishing Inc., the Internet subsidiary of the Boston Globe.[1]…On September 12, 2011, the Boston Globe launched a separate site at bostonglobe.com[3] that put most journalistic content from its print edition behind a paywall.[4

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston.com

Comment by homie
2015-11-12 09:38:19

That’s my point - the Globe has sequestered anything of value behind their paywall, and the crap that’s left over is on Boston.com It’s usually not worth your time to read.

 
 
Comment by Dani W
2015-11-12 18:20:40

I agree about Boston.com.

When attempting to see what is really going on, sources are important and seeking truth and facts should be the goal , not looking for people who will merely reinforce a chosen mind-set.

I am concerned that this site is becoming less and less a site that filters through hype and more a site that is falling for right wing propaganda .

For instance the Wall Street Journal is still a highly valuable source because successful business people need factual information in order to make decisions, but god forbid anyone interested in reality stray to the opinion side of the Journal.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 18:28:45

‘I agree about Boston.com…I am concerned that this site is becoming less and less a site that filters through hype and more a site that is falling for right wing propaganda’

Oh jeebus, boston.com is right wing propaganda? First I don’t think you know as much as you say. Boston.com often publishes the Boston Globe articles, just in a reduced form. Second, I post Boston Globe articles all the time. If you know what you are doing, you can still access them (I do it all the time) and luckily they haven’t sued me.

It’s the same freaking media outlet! If you are really that concerned, please send me an email and I will refund your subscription, in full.

 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-11-12 07:04:17

12,554 nearby properties found Boston, MA Real Estate and Homes for Sale

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Boston_MA?ml=4

5,223 nearby properties found Boston, MA Price Reduced Homes for Sale

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Boston_MA/show-price-reduced?ml=4

41% of Boston, MA sellers reduced their price at least once.

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-11-12 07:06:44

Boston Metro Housing Prices Fall 5% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/market-report/11-15/26/ma.xls?rt=14

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2015-11-12 07:10:18

Newcastle, WA Housing Craters; Prices Dive 7% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/newcastle-wa-98056/home-values/

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-11-12 07:55:30

“Housing Bubble - Part Deux”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-12/housing-bubble-part-deux

“Flippers are getting stuck with houses they can’t flip for a profit. Hedge funds have stopped buying and have begun selling. Anyone dumb enough to have been lured into this market in the last few years will be underwater in no time. The foreclosure train will be leaving the station shortly. We’ve been here before.”

 
Comment by taxpayers
2015-11-12 08:23:01

is there any city/county in the us w rising RE prices?

taxes are going up and prices are going down=sad panda

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-11-12 08:49:11

‘The property had not been upgraded since it was built 15 years ago and is prime for a new owner to complete a value-add strategy for additional growth.’

Is ‘value-add’ a code word for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pumping in subprime loans to fund their unaffordable rentership program?

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 09:42:50

It means they can do upgrades and justify raising the rent. It’s rampant and the GSE’s are funding the whole thing:

‘The hot market has led some rents to double or triple, even in areas once considered less desirable…Entire apartment complexes are cleared out, the evictions followed by new owners renovating and increasing rents…last year, when their building was sold, the tenants received no-cause evictions. After new owners renovated the complex, Langenes said, rents tripled’

And anything that’s built new is “luxury”. The media sits around, “gosh rents are really going up!” As I said the other day, it’s already starting to break down.

Hey reporters, come on, pick up the bread crumbs!

Comment by Rental Watch
2015-11-12 10:13:05

“It means they can do upgrades and justify raising the rent. It’s rampant and the GSE’s are funding the whole thing.”

Upgrades to raise rents is sometimes the case–completing long-deferred maintenance to bring rents back in line with the competition is also common. Both are considered “value-add”.

I prefer the latter than the former from an investment standpoint.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 10:19:05

Yeah, painting new stripes on the parking lot, etc, and doubling or tripling rents is bringing it in line with competition. Paying 240k per old apartment in an area where incomes haven’t gone up = default city.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Rental Watch
2015-11-12 10:50:53

I’ve never actually invested in an apartment project (I’ve declined too many to count). I’m talking about commercial projects where you might need to do things like:

Replacing the asphalt in parking lots
Replacing old exterior lighting (safety issue and lowers op ex)
Fixing leaky roofs
Fixing bathrooms and cleaning up trash enclosures
Fix truck docks that have been damaged from prior users
etc. etc. etc.

And doubling or tripling rent? Not a chance in a market with reasonable supply. Depending on how bad the project is before you get started, you might be able to raise rents by 5-15%.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 11:30:46

‘Not a chance in a market with reasonable supply’

If you connect the dots, the only answer that makes sense is this is a rampaging, out of control mania. Why can’t they build affordable apartments? The land has doubled or tripled, in just a few years. So their calculators go tap tap and viola! It’s gotta be high end. What’s high end? All sorts of fancy stuff people don’t really need. Like Blue was saying, a trillion bucks in four years, just from the GSE’s. That’s not counting life insurance companies and the like. And don’t forget, even with these huge increases in rents, the deals are yielding low returns.

The other day I posted an article about the mega-billion dollar apartment deals with a guy saying, ‘if it wasn’t for this easy government-backed money and low rates these deals wouldn’t be happening.’ One of the last multi-family posts I did had a guy in Atlanta saying ’something’s got to give.’ It’s going to give alright. You can’t suck 35-50% out of peoples incomes for long without causing something, somewhere, to break. Not to mention some of these articles in the comments today; vacancies. Yes, they might have empty luxury condos from Hong Kong to New York to London, but apartments need rents.

And then there’s the inevitable recession. When paying 35% of zero income doesn’t work. Out they go, more vacancies. It’s all spinning faster and faster, with each year seeing double digit increases in the loans. What is the conventional wisdom in the industry? It can only go higher, and of course it will never end, as one would expect in a mania.

 
Comment by Dani W
2015-11-12 18:32:01

I believe the rents are going up so fast because the apartment owners have a cartel going and have a price fixing arrangement.

Just no way to prove that one, except it would be so easy for them to do.

I actually believe we needs lots more apartments and I’m happy to see them built as long as it’s infill but I also believe there’s something fishy when the rents can rise this fast overnight.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 11:54:19

‘Commodities prices plunged across the board on Thursday, pulling down the share value of mining and oil companies, as investors took a pessimistic view about global economic growth in 2016.’

‘The Bloomberg Commodity Spot index, which tracks the value of 22 raw materials, fell to its lowest since August, approaching levels last seen during the global financial crisis in 2008-09.’

‘Investors have sold commodities holdings and shares of oil producers and miners because they’re worried about economic weakness in China — the main engine of raw materials demand growth — and other emerging countries. “Global growth is weak,” Alireza said.’

‘The strength of the U.S. dollar as investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of the year has also hurt commodities prices. Most raw materials are priced in dollars and historically a stronger U.S. currency tends to result in weaker commodities prices.’

‘The renewed downturn in oil and commodities prices heightens the pressure on natural resources executives to deliver on their debt reduction programs and cut costs to sustain their dividends. Natural resources groups from Chevron Corp. to BHP Billiton Ltd. have announced large reductions in investment for 2015 and 2016 to adjust to lower prices.’

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-12/commodities-prices-tumble-as-investors-worry-about-2016-growth

 
Comment by snake charmer
2015-11-12 11:56:32

That Miami development is absurd, even reduced in size. With loose money, there’s no limitation to ego in that town. And naming it “Vice”? This is after previous towers were branded with the names Porsche, Armani and Fendi. Don Johnson lived on a boat.

The art element on the parking garage creeps me out. A fifteen-story techno image of a blindfolded woman’s face? I can only guess what they’re trying to convey with that.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 12:10:08

But it looks like a cheese grater!

Check out the gallery from the shipping container article. Edgy.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2015/11/11/avant-garde-shipping-container-apartments-in.html#g1

BTW, $1,000 month will get you a decent house in an area where you will still have tires on your car the next morning.

Comment by snake charmer
2015-11-12 13:02:48

I don’t understand why somebody on the Planning Board didn’t speak up and say, I don’t want to live next to a giant cheese grater. Or how about, that’s ugly. Maybe they think that in a hundred years it will be like the Eiffel Tower.

I don’t understand the shipping container phenomenon. I like tiny houses, but is living in a metal box a good idea in an area where summer temperatures routinely exceed 100º?

 
Comment by CHE
2015-11-12 13:20:33

They couldn’t even paint the outsides to look nice? For $1k a month?

Comment by oxide
2015-11-12 15:10:18

Heck no; that original paint is part of the hipster-hugger cache. The residents can point to it to show off how environmentally friendly they are.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by redmondjp
2015-11-12 12:12:02

50 shades of crater rage?

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2015-11-12 12:19:48

I just got this email:

Motivated Seller

3431 Coast View Drive, Malibu

Just completed, Mid-Century modern revival located in one of Malibu’s premier neighborhoods. Amazing ocean views of the Queens Necklace, Cross Creek, Surfrider Beach and Malibu Colony. Situated on over an acre, this residence features Fleetwood doors and windows, a Bulthaup kitchen, stone and hardwood flooring throughout. Pool, large detached guesthouse and ample off-street parking. A must see! Co-listed.

Offered at $5,255,000

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3431-Coast-View-Dr-Malibu-CA-90265/20554296_zpid/

08/05/15 Price change $5,255,000-10.9%
06/08/15 Listed for sale $5,900,000+120%
07/01/14 Sold $2,680,000-4.1%
06/13/14 Pending sale $2,795,000
06/03/14 Listed for sale $2,795,000

Comment by taxpayers
2015-11-12 13:18:12

tell them HA will pay 55 per sq ft

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-11-12 13:37:13

Or tell them he lives in your skull…. rent free.

 
 
 
Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2015-11-12 12:46:39

Bracing for the potential that my landlord my up the rent again next spring, I’ve started to poke around the commercial units in the area. I’ve only contacted one so far and they said it’s not zoned for someone to live in one. I heard the unit at another one had some sort of night watchman clause that does permit it. The rents seem to be all over the place but some definitely less than I pay now, and not sure how well it would work long term. Some have showers and kitchenettes and stuff, but unlike renting a house washer/dryer might require modifications and not sure how the whole space would be with regards to air conditioning.

 
Comment by CHE
2015-11-12 13:28:03

Even if I could afford it, I wouldn’t want to live in Malibu. A lot of those homes are way up curvy roads in the hills that are 10-15 minutes off PCH. Even though you can see the water, it’s going to take a lot of time and effort to actually get to it.

Malibu itself is pretty isolated from the rest of LA. It’s a bad enough commute and then when you have rainstorms you get rock slides and closures of PCH and those smaller roads… making it difficult/impossible to gain access.

Comment by redmondjp
2015-11-12 23:48:58

Same here. After hearing about it for years, I actually visited the place in person on a college road trip (in a 1969 Cadillac ambulance - that was a lot of fun). Totally underwhelmed.

Now Carmel, OTOH, wow, is that place scenic!

 
 
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