Bits Bucket for November 23, 2015
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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Is oil still on track to hit $80 / bbl by December 2015?
Top News
Mon Nov 23, 2015 | 2:47 AM EST
U.S. oil plunges over 3 percent on strong dollar, supply glut
A pump jack operates at a well site leased by Devon Energy Production Company near Guthrie, Oklahoma September 15, 2015.
REUTERS/Nick Oxford
By Meeyoung Cho
SEOUL (Reuters) - Crude futures plunged on Monday, with U.S. oil dropping more than 3 percent on a firmer U.S. dollar and festering worries over a global supply surplus.
The fall was part of a wider decline in commodities that has also been stoked by worries over faltering demand from China, with prices for base metals such as copper and nickel tumbling.
U.S. crude’s West Texas Intermediate (WTI) January contract CLc1 had fallen $1.16, or 2.77 percent, to $40.74 a barrel by 0740 GMT. It hit $40.59 earlier in the session, near levels seen on Friday before the December contract expired.
Benchmark front-month Brent futures for January LCOc1 lost 80 cents, or 1.79 percent, to $43.86 a barrel, recovering from a session-low of $43.69.
“With the stronger U.S. dollar, all of copper, gold and oil fell after Asian trading began … there were also some selloffs which were not made last Friday,” said Kang Yoo-jin, commodities analyst at NH Investment and Securities in Seoul.
…
Pardon my preference for grounding our discussion in reality.
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Oil Markets
Crude Prices Fall; $40 Per Barrel ‘Very Possible’ - Analyst
January Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.49 to $44.17 a barrel
By Jenny Hsu
Updated Nov. 22, 2015 11:56 p.m. ET
Crude oil prices lost traction in early Asia trade Monday as supply glut concerns overshadowed a report showing a decline in the U.S. oil-rig count.
On Friday, oil prices turned higher after industry group Baker Hughes reported that the U.S. oil rig count fell by 10, sparking some optimism that oil production in North America is tapering down. While some discount the measure’s usefulness, others in the market use it as a gauge of how production might rise or fall in the future.
However, analysts say market participants remain nervous that oil majors, particularly those in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, will continue to ramp up output amid low prices for the sake of defending market share.
The organization is scheduled to meet on December 4 in Vienna. Various reports say the bloc plans to maintain the same policy despite protests by the less cash-rich smaller players.
…
Continually “falling” to $40.
You’re catching on!
Who has a copy of AQ Dan’s $80 Thanksgiving prediction? I find it interesting he won’t come back to eat his crow.
I’ll eat some crow for Thanksgiving.
I thought that the price drop was due to washing out the commodities speculation, and that the fall to $45 was the pendulum swinging too far to the low side. I was expecting prices to normalize to demand to ~$65-$70 by now.
I guess I overestimated demand. Did China really account for half the global oil demand? Wow. Oh well, there’s time. “They aren’t making any more oil.”
Considering production cost of crude is down near $6-$7 a barrel, crude has a long way to fall yet.
Crow with your CraterTaters? Sound delectable Donk.
“it interesting he won’t come back to eat his crow.”
I find it interesting that bringing up the prediction he crammed down our throats over and over ad nauseum gets me accused of making ad hominem attacks on a defenseless former poster.
He’s not defenseless. He is destitute, poverty-stricken, impoverished, poor, indigent, impecunious, in penury, moneyless, necessitous, needy, bankrupt, insolvent, without a cent, flat broke, cleaned out, strapped for cash, busted.
I’m thinking he might have had an aneurysm reading the HBB.
‘I guess I overestimated demand’
The recent economics bashing was interesting. Why not do the same with meteorologists? Some are wrong, so this weather study is wacky! And no one has their own version of economics more self-crafted than Oxide-nomics.
Adam Smith gets some people really ruffled because he pointed out that what he called the invisible hand exists. He didn’t invent it, he just identified it: ‘In economics, the invisible hand is a metaphor used by Adam Smith to describe unintended social benefits resulting from individual actions.’
Now why would defining that make some people so mad?
“Why not do the same with meteorologists?”
Or chemists, for that matter.
Wait, I forgot: Chemists are real scientists, unlike economists.
“I’m thinking he might have had an aneurysm reading the HBB.”
Either that, or he posted himself to the point of disability.
“They aren’t making any more oil.”
It’s not called “making” oil. It’s called “producing” oil and yes they are producing more oil.
Chemists are real scientists, unlike economists
Many economists would probably agree with that, actually.
“They aren’t making any more oil.”
They certainly are discovering more, plus innovating more efficient ways to locate and extract reserves that would not have been exploitable a few decades back.
These supply-increasing technological innovations, coupled with collapsed demand, help explain why the price is so sticky at $40 / bbl.
“Many economists would probably agree with that, actually.”
I’m pretty sure more economists would agree with that than the number of chemists who would admit they are clueless on economics.
It’s not called “making” oil.
I know the difference between “making” and “producing” oil. In the context of my post, “making” is correct.
I know the difference between “making” and “producing” oil.
What is it? They are listed as synonyms.
“Producing” oil is pumping existing oil out of the ground.
“Making” oil is converting bio-organisms such as algae into the super-compost that is crude oil. The process takes millions of years.
My post was a reference to peak oil, or at least peak cheap oil. Sure, I bought oil mutuals at $48/bbl a year ago, thinking that oil price would be back up again by now. But so what if it isn’t? I don’t need to sell today. I have decades until I retire. And since nobody is “making” any more cheap oil out of algae, the supply that can be produced cheaply will dwindle, and the price will likely go back up by the time I need to sell.
I think the Saudis know viable fusion is getting close, so they’re selling all the oil they can while it still has value.
Donk,
More oil reserves are formed every second. Oil isn’t going away anytime soon or in the next few thousand years.
You paid too much for the oil.
peak oil
We appear to have passed peak oil consumption with the rolling over of the global building boom. You may need a longer horizon than two decades to see the next demand spike.
Hopefully the mutual fund management fees do not eat your investment away to nothing in that time frame.
Is the Echo Bubble worse than the original housing bubble that blew sky high in 2007-08?
Housing today: A ‘bubble larger than 2006′
Diana Olick | @DianaOlick
Tue, 6 Oct ‘15 | 12:58 PM ET
CNBC.com
Home prices are gaining steam again, fueled by tight supply amid growing demand.
Nationally, home prices were nearly 7 percent higher in August compared to a year ago, according to a new report from CoreLogic. That is a bigger annual gain than we saw during the spring market in May and June. Other monthly reports have shown the same phenomenon.
“It is clear that house price growth has picked up recently,” noted analysts at Capital Economics, comparing August’s annual gain to a 4.8 percent rise in February. “Indeed, with the months’ supply of homes close to a 10-year low, if anything, both CoreLogic and Case-Shiller are reporting slower growth than might be expected.”
While home prices nationally have not yet returned to their peak of the last housing boom, some local markets have surpassed it. Now, some claim the housing market is in a bubble far worse than the devastating one in 2006. The argument: Housing is far less affordable today than it was back then, and the home price gains are driven not by healthy, end-user demand but by a lack of construction, artificially low interest rates, and institutional and foreign all-cash buyers.
“In the days of ‘anything goes,’ ninja financing caused housing prices to lurch higher, which forced people to rush in and buy, which in turn pushed prices higher, thus increasing volume more, and so on. But when it comes to the new-era, end-user buyer, that can’t happen any longer, as buyers actually have to fundamentally ‘qualify’ for the mortgage for which they apply,” wrote housing analyst Mark Hanson in a note to clients.
Hanson, often criticized for being a housing bear, points to the institutional and foreign buyers who have flooded the market since 2012, buying up distressed and lower-priced homes, as well as some new construction, all with cash. He calls it an exact replay of the last housing boom, “when unorthodox demand with unorthodox capital would pay any price it took to hit the bid.”
…
Exact same bubble with one exception: The over leverage is far more severe now than anytime in the last 15 years.
“Home prices are gaining steam again, fueled by tight supply amid growing demand.”
This statement cannot be true! HA says there are 25,000,000 empty, foreclosed, vacant houses in the US that nobody wants.
He also says demand is at 20-year lows and dropping.
Professor Bear, you must quit publishing data that is untrue. How can there be “tight supply” and “growing demand” when HA says houses are going unclaimed and demand is falling off a cliff?
Data Jingle_Fraud data!
US Housing Demand Plummets To 20 Year Low
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-WCDJJDwoM_Q/Ve9aw1-jRzI/AAAAAAAAk6c/HCsokRseios/s1600/MBASept92015.PNG
“demand is at 20-year lows and dropping.”
Don’t get hysterical Jingle. Demand for new SFH is at 50 year lows and it has been since 2009. Builders have continued to build beyond sales during the entire period.
Rising prices on falling volume ends in a blowoff.
Buckle up.
True that. I know a guy who just leveraged himself to the same tune he BK’d from in 2011. How’s the definition of insane go again….?
very few re markets are at their 2006 peak
oil cities and socal
The national house price exceeded the ‘06 peak in 2015.
Sacramento Foothills are not approaching the 2007 bubble factors:
2007: Building 15,000 houses/year
2015: Building 3,500 houses/year
2007: Sale 3,000 SF house at $680,000 (80/20 loan, no down)
2010: Sale 3,000 SF house at $270,000 (20% down, full doc)
2015: Sale 3,000 SF house at $400,000 (20% down, full doc)
2007 loans: Fog a mirror, get a loan, flipper mentality
2015 loans: Full doc, verified income, w real down payment
The conditions in Sacramento and nowhere near the bubblicious state we saw leading into 2007.
3.5% down is ubiquitous in CA and the standard in all 50 states Jingle_Fraud. And remember;
3.5% down payment mortgages are the definition of sub-prime lending.
FHA & VA loans are the new subprime.
you know it it worse in the more desirable areas such as so cal and the bay area.
It has not gotten to the extremes seen before in the central valley or arizona from my observations.
Are you concerned the strengthening dollar may worsen Chinese economic picture in 2016?
Sydney Morning Herald
Business
Golman Sees Sudden Dollar Rally as Major Economic Risk to China in 2016
November 23, 2015 4:20PM
A sharp unexpected rally in the US dollar would cause a tightening of financial conditions in China.
Photo: Bloomberg
By Vesna Poljak
A renewed downturn in China and a rapid acceleration in the United States dollar are the two big “spillover” risks the global economy faces in 2016, according to Goldman Sachs’ top economist, as the great divergence in monetary policy begins.
Jan Hatzius observes that the world’s advanced economies are “actually recovering nicely”, even though the past few years have featured downgrades to growth forecasts and the necessary boosting of monetary stimulus.
“Unemployment in the G7 has fallen faster in the past five years than over any comparable period since at least the 1970s, despite a rebound in working-age labour force participation,” Mr Hatzius said in new research referring to the Group of Seven industrialised countries.
…
Embrace diversity.
——————
Brussels Maintains Maximum Threat Level for Second Day, Belgium On Alert
NBC News | November 22, 2015 | CLAUDIO LAVANGA and CASSANDRA VINOGRAD
Belgium maintained the highest terror alert level for the capital of Brussels on Sunday, indicating a “serious and imminent” threat of attack.
The security measures came amid an international manhunt for Saleh Abdeslam, a potential accomplice to the Paris attacks last week, who was believed to have crossed into Belgium after the terror spree.
Officials have described Saleh Abdeslam, whose other brother, Brahim, blew himself up in Paris as dangerous.
However, when asked whether Brussels’ maximum threat level related to Abdeslam alone, Interior Minister Jan Jambon said “unfortunately not.”
When American car companies and their unions demand their next multi-billion taxpayer bailout and why you will need a 7 year car loan to buy your next car…
—————–
Labor Costs to Skyrocket for American Cars
Washington Free Beacon | 11/23/15 | Bill McMorris
The new GM deal would raise labor costs from $55 to $60 an hour, a 9 percent hike, according to a study of the deals from Kristin Dziczek of the Center for Automotive Research and Art Schwartz, a former GM labor executive and president of Labor and Economic Associates. The union contract at Ford also reached the $60 hourly rate over the next four years, a 5 percent increase from its current rate of $57. Those hike pales in comparison with Chrysler, where average hourly wages will spike nearly 20 percent from $47 to $56.
The Detroit automakers were forced to impose labor cuts in the wake of the 2008 recession that led to a multi-billion dollar taxpayer bailout of GM, which entered bankruptcy, and Chrysler, which was sold to Fiat. Ford turned down bailout assistance.
The new contracts would reverse many of the pay freezes adopted to control costs, as well as offset the tiered payment systems that allowed the automakers to hire new employees at lower pay and benefits than previous generations of union members.
“Workers better make smart investments with their new wage and bonus increases, because they come at the cost of their long-term position. They’ve weakened their long-term job security and they’ve failed to bandage the festering wound that is two-tier wages,” Niedermeyer said.
Niedermeyer said that economic stability is largely dependent on gas prices and lending rates remaining low—something that may not be true in the future. Spiking labor costs only a few years into economic recovery could bring about the same conditions that led to the collapse of American auto manufacturing in the first place.
“This is a cyclical business, and the UAW has prioritized maximizing its position now at the risk of losing out big in the next downturn,” Niedermeyer said.
$60/hr >$120,000/yr. That puts the average auto plant worker at a higher pay scale than a STEM grad by far.
http://www.payscale.com/college-salary-report-2013/majors-that-pay-you-back
I think the actual autoworker pay is likely 70% of the $60, or $36/hour, but your point is well made. The 30% is considered overburden (benefits).
That $60 probably includes benefits like the Cadillac health plans and pensions. Even so, $60-$70K is a rather tall order for someone with a associates’ degree in… um, probably “[STEM] Technology”.
“When American car companies and their unions demand their next multi-billion taxpayer bailout and why you will need a 7 year car loan to buy your next car…”
Is it time for an auto industry GSE to lube the credit pipe?
Working people get a raise, so an organ of the plutocracy raises an alarm.
Here is another way to say it:
Union goons, who are the largest monetary donors in political campaigns, got a massive raise after their industry receives billions in taxpayer bailouts that will never be repaid…
Your excerpt mentions Ford and the fact that Ford didn’t participate. The bailouts are irrelevant to the article. Its purpose is make some non-rich people angry at and envious of some other non-rich people. That’s interesting, because you’ll sometimes see articles on these same kinds of websites claiming people like Bernie Sanders are motivated by envy.
You can probably search the Washington Free Beacon and not find any mention of CEO salaries and bonuses. You often read on such websites that people like Bill Gates deserve their wealth because they built up phenomenally profitable businesses. So whatever happened to the executives who ran GM and Chrysler so miserably that they required massive federal bailouts? Why don’t these web sites express any anger at those people? Why do they reserve all of that for the guys on the assembly line?
Don’t the big three already assemble half their “USA” cars in Canada and Mexico, with a BIG emphasis on growth in low wage Mexico? Last time I checked, the Mexican made cars were no cheaper than the UAW cars.
Given that imported cars are just as expensive, if not more expensive than “American” cars (what happened to all those cheap cars from China?), I would say that the high prices are what the market will bear (EZ financing also helps).
EZ financing also helps = subprime, no down payment, roll your payments into the next vehicle purchase and have the government guarantee all the loans for the next massive bailouts…
What government agency is guaranteeing auto loans? I couldn’t find any on google.
GM, Ford and Chrysler
Not according to the sources I looked up. The government pulled out of the auto industry in late 2013. The banks which had extended car loans — including Ally, the old GMAC — pulled out of TARP in late 2014:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ally-financial-exits-tarp-as-treasury-sells-remaining-stake-1419000430
And Dodd-Frank is designed to prevent future bailouts. So I don’t see how the last half of your post is correct.
The fed buying down interest rates so millions of penniless suckers pay grossly inflated prices for a car is a bailout Donk.
Subprime auto. They can’t afford the car anymore than you can afford the shack.
And Dodd-Frank is designed to prevent future bailouts. So I don’t see how the last half of your post is correct.
You are so cute.
And before the FIRST bank bailouts - there were no plans for bailouts either.
“Osama is dead and GM is alive!”
Always buy a 4 yr old car, let someone else take the big depreciation hit.
What is stopping you from working at GM?
He can’t work and spend his days crying on the Internet.
“What is stopping you from working at GM?”
I don’t want to move to Mexico.
GM to double Mexico production capacity, invest $3.6 billion in plants
http://www.autonews.com/…-double-mexico-production-capacity-invest-3.6-billion-in-plants - 145k - Cached - Similar pages
Dec 11, 2014 … General Motors plans to invest $3.6 billion in Mexico to double its … who are flocking to Mexico moving production from their home countries.
2banana’s Rule:
Conservatives are more than happy to live under the same laws and taxes they want for everyone else.
Liberals/Progressives expect to be exempted from the same laws and taxes they want for everyone else.
——————————
California Conservatives Enforcing Rule of Law
Townhall.com | November 23, 2015 | Arthur Schaper
One of the biggest problems facing American’s political culture is enforcement. President Obama, with phone and pen in hand, chooses which laws to enforce and which to ignore (immigration laws, secure borders, etc). Before challenging the Open Border lobby in Washington, US Senator Jeff Sessions exposed the declining prosecutions for gun crimes in federal court. Why demand more gun control when the President refuses to enforce the laws against gun violence in the first place?
After three months of protests and pressure following the council’s appointment of two illegals to city commissions. We have been ramping up our approach, demanding enforcement in a city where the very council does not honor the rule of law. Enforcement is now our aim, and we are playing the game to win.
We went to the Los Angeles satellite office of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. I have never been to the FBI before. I suppose that’s a plus, considering that I lie in bed plotting federal crimes.
The security on November 19th, 2015 was the strictest I had seen, more than at the airport or into courthouses, state or federal. After passing through the metal detectors, I had to marvel: why can’t the feds establish similar strictures along our borders?
“President Obama, with phone and pen in hand, chooses which laws to enforce and which to ignore (immigration laws, secure borders, etc).”
+1 Afghan boys getting raped by Warlords on U.S. forward bases, and Obama chooses to ignore the Geneva Convention and oust the whistle blowing soldiers who risk all.
stop spending my money in the middle east.
“At the turn of the year, the FANG stocks had a combined market cap of $740 billion and combined 2014 earnings of $17.5 billion. So a valuation multiple of 42X might not seem outlandish for this team of race horses, but what has happened since then surely is.
At this week’s close, the FANG stocks were valued at just under $1.2 trillion, meaning they have gained $450 billion of market cap or 60% during the last 11 months——even as their combined earnings for the September LTM period were up by only 13%.
In a word, the gamblers are piling on to the last train out of the station. And that means look out below!”
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/when-wall-street-gets-defanged-look-out-below/
Yellen will punt again. she wont ruin xmas bonuses.
Wow - A “Trump” win for Argentina
Maybe there is hope for Venezuela too…
——————–
New Argentine president: Reduce state’s role in economy
Greg Toppo - USATODAY - November 23, 2015
The son of a wealthy, Italian-born industrialist — Macri’s father, Francesco “Franco” Macri, emigrated to Argentina from Italy after World War II — Macri had presidential aspirations during the country’s last election in 2011, but decided instead to run for re-election. He won with an even bigger margin, more than 64%.
A civil engineer who has long mixed politics with soccer — he was for years the president of Boca Juniors, one of Argentina’s best-known clubs — Macri, 56, has promised to get rid of the nation’s controversial price control system, which applies to more than 400 supermarket items.
His victory on Sunday signals the effective end of a dozen years of leftist “Kirchnerism” in Argentina, which featured heavy taxes on agricultural exports and heavy-handed government intervention in the economy. President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who is term-limited, succeeded her late husband, Nestor Kirchner, who served one term, from 2003 to 2007. His wife was elected in 2007 and re-elected in 2011. Nestor Kirchner died in 2010.
Macri promised to reduce the state’s role in the economy and embrace more pro-business policies, as well as shift Argentina’s foreign policy away from close relations with the anti-American governments in Venezuela and Iran and better ties with the USA.
He also wants to scrap currency controls and make it much easier for Argentines to change their local pesos into U.S. dollars, a move that would require the country’s central bank to increase its currency reserves.
NPR was doing a hard sell on the new war this morning. This, coupled with the New York Times and Washington Post, means the war is gonna happen. I caught a segment about ISIS on 60 Minutes last night, every liberal media outlet has now embraced the war narrative
Neocons gonna neocon, even when they are Democrats
The democrat policies in Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria all have blown up in obama’s face.
Recent major islamic terrorist attacks in Europe. Coming soon to America.
Let’s see - How to make obama and hillary look “presidential” with less than 12 months before the election?
Go to WAR with someone…
Are your primary loyalties to Israel or to the United States?
And if you’re as “Christian” as you claim to be, why do you support a foreign policy advocated by people who are not Christians, and that does not benefit Christians?
Maybe it’s because you’re not a Christian
Please note #1, 3, 4, 5, 7 and 8 are islamic countries.
So why don’t you ever mention that? What is your agenda to ignore these plain facts and ALWAYS focus on #2?
———-
Top 25 Recipient Countries of U.S. Foreign Aid FY 2013 Reported in $US millions, Obligations
Afghanistan 4,533.51
Israel 2,961.04
Egypt 1,566.24
Jordan 1,211.83
West Bank/Gaza 1,007.73 0
Kenya 886.88
Pakistan 799.34
Indonesia 770.98
Syria 737.88
Ethiopia 686.53
South Sudan 618.74
Malawi 571.18
Uganda 541.93
South Africa 526.19
Nigeria 518.84
Russia 465.16
Iraq 444.81
Tanzania 430.66
Mexico 419.94
Congo (Kinshasa)
Haiti 378.77
Lebanon 376.41
Somalia 367.18
Zambia 310.80
Sudan (former)* 290.05
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_foreign_aid
Afghanistan - we created the mess, so have no choice but to foot some of the bill.
Egypt, Jordan and Palestine - Is to buy “peace” for Israel.
Kinda like the global warming/climate change argument…
Too much rain, not enough rain, too hot, too cold, hurricanes, no hurricanes, too much snow, not enough snow etc.
It is all due to global warming.
We give those countries money so they can turn around and buy arms from our arms producers. The countries are just the middlemen, the money goes to our defense industry.
Warning: This information is not to be provided to the low-information votersheep.
The Republican Party, particularly the Republican majority in Congress, has been hijacked by the Israeli lobby. Israel is not the 51st state. America owes Israel nothing. America has nothing to benefit from protecting Israel.
All you will ever be in the eyes of people like Sheldon Adelson is a dumb f*ing goyim. Your unequivocal support of Israel is no different than 95% of black Americans voting Democrat Party.
And P.S. you’re not a Christian.
The countries are just the middlemen, the money goes to our defense industry.
Of course, their top dogs take a fat cut. Shouldn’t leave that part out.
The countries are just the middlemen, the money goes to our defense industry.
Great point. Most of the foreign aid is basically a bailout to the US companies, think tanks & bureaucrats.
Love the neo-cons, they put the war on the credit card, dont want to pay their bills.
red state moochers.
Thinking of 2016 and investments.
Commodities will still be hated (gold, oil, copper, etc.)
Housing bubble bigger
Tech stock bubble bigger
Medical care will get even more expensive
Europe will start breaking apart with the election of nationalists in response to islamic terrorism and muslim immigration.
Bigger obama wars in the middle east. The Kurds with American airpower and Assad with Russian airpower will continue to make gains against ISIS and other islamic groups. This will piss off Turkey and Saudi Arabia and elicit a response.
Afghanistan (everywhere but Kabul) falling. American troops rushing back.
The insane obama deficits will keep coming. We are now at the point where if interest rates were raised to historical averages (5%) it would bankrupt the treasury (i.e. - all discretionary federal revenue would go to paying off interest on the debt).
China will continue to implode. Global trade will not recover.
With an upcoming Presidential election, the Feds (ALL of whom where appointed by obama) will do whatever it take to keep interest lows and keep QE rolling along.
More and more debt everywhere you look
———–
So what to do in 2016?
Commodities would seem prudent.
Stocks will probably keep going up as cheap money has nowhere else to go. They will crash the instant there is perception that this relationship is over as the fundamentals do not support stocks at these prices.
Invest in yourselves - Stay out of debt. Live within your means.
Well run oil companies.
Companies headquartered in well run countries.
That all I can think of right now - comments?
Beaten down energy or commodities sector mutual funds instead of individual oil companies, if you want to buy the commodities dip without incurring the risk your chosen stock turns into the next Enron…
One further suggestion: Don’t buy until commodities bottom out.
“Commodities would seem prudent.”
Too early.
When there is too much debt, commodities aren’t very good cover. They are as wrapped up in the debt pyramid as anything. Prices are collapsing because the debt machine has faltered. Commodities will continue to be sold at a loss until there is not too much debt.
maylasia/singapore
switzerland
MLPA pipeline MLP
Well run oil companies.
That’s the equivalent of investing in horse buggy manufacturers in 1910 or investing in typewriter companies in the 1980’s. The results look good in the rear view mirror but looking forward the companies get squashed by new technology. Oil is a dead man walking industry.
Sounds interesting but until that happens, I’m blasting billowing plumes of black soot out of every piece of equipment I own and cranking the thermostat to 80.
We love the falling price of energy. Love it.
Cars that run on renewables are not a new technology. They’ve been around for, what, 40 years now and still haven’t caught on yet. Why should they? What do they offer over existing fossil cars? They’re not faster, they don’t run more miles, they don’t refuel faster or more conveniently, they don’t last longer, and they’re not cheaper. So there’s no real reason to buy one except for hippie street cred, which 90% of the population doesn’t care about and can’t afford anyway.
The only advantage is that they don’t use fossil, and that only works if there’s no fossil. We still have a couple decades of fossil. So it’s like saying that “*you’re* a dead man walking. Well, you are, eventually. But you aren’t quite dead yet. You can still go for a walk.
Oxy you make some points, but you ignore that all “renewables” are made from fossil. Ethanol is the best example, using more oil to produce than it replaces as a fuel. Electricity is made from fossil, or nuclear which is hardly a renewable. Hydro is the exception perhaps.
Wood burning cars are possibly the only ones that run on renewable. They have been around since WWII Germany. A nice concept, but not so glamorous.
I’m referring to solar and wind. The hippies are heck-bent on charging up the cheap Tesla in the garage from the solar panels and wind turbine in the back yard. Or putting solar panels directly on the car.
I see. The problem with using solar (or wind) directly yourself is that you don’t get the government subsidy for feeding it into the grid.
Pipe dreams, WPA - energy companies are a good bet in the long run as everybody needs their product.
Even when we all are driving hydrogen-powered cars (in twenty-never-nine), where will all of that H2 come from? Well from reforming natural gas, of course! Provided by said buggy-whip-mfgr energy companies.
Had an interesting online comment conversation over the weekend with a local solar installer. He seems to think that the $.54/kwh (no typo, the decimal is in the right place) subsidy paid for energy produced from a residential USA-made solar system is completely sustainable! That’s about 5x what our electricity costs now.
In what world does it make sense to blow such hefty subsidies on high cost, low BTU energy sources like the ones WPA favors?
“Oil is a dead man walking industry.”
Sure it is, in the long run. But how long are we taking about?
Yeah, pay off any current debt ASAP!
Keep a healthy dose of cash at hand.
After voting for globalists and then getting it good and hard, French are starting to vote for “far right” parties which to the MSM means any nationalist parties that aren’t craven toadies for the banksters & globalists and who put the interests of the nation ahead of further enriching the .1%.
http://www.france24.com/en/20151123-french-far-right-popularity-attacks-paris
Far right in Europe = anyone who wants a border or goes to church.
Smaller government? Less Taxes? Making people work for their benefits?
Why then you are a racist nazi bastard!
Which is ironic as the Nazi where “National Socialists” whose polices the left and progressives mimic and copy.
The poster child for the sleazy, crony-capitalist GOP, Mitch McConnell, has the usual shadowy deep-pockets paymasters. It’s a big club and you ain’t in it….
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/11/20/mcconnell-boosters-bankrolled-megadonors.html
I hate it when Hillary supporters can’t get along.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3329240/Fight-Skyline-High-School-Dallas-Independent-School-District-student-teacher-captured-video.html
Charming, just charming. Well, let it all blow. Public education has become a farce anyway.
I am sure the teacher deserved he beat down for showing some white privilege.
Bonny Prince Charlie sez climate change is a cause of war in Syria. You can’t make this stuff up.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/11/23/prince-charles-syria-climate-change/76248500/
Got some newz for ya, genius. It’s the other way around. War is a cause of climate change and the real problem is, global warRing, not global warMing. But never let a good crisis go to waste, Mr. Battenburg.
The socialist polices of liberals/progressives ALWAYS fail.
They can’t admit it - so they must blame something. No matter how stupid or inane it sounds.
As a South Carolina resident, you no doubt witnessed the devastating effects of the severe floods of last month. How many more of these extreme events will it take to convince you global warming is a real threat? How many times does one have to be beaten upside the head before giving in?
You tell us.
The problem with pretending to have a discussion with WPA is that all his receptors and processors are switched off. He’s posted plenty of lies and hoaxes here that have been exposed as such and it doesn’t give him a moment’s pause.
He doesn’t want a rational discussion. All he wants is this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzZmU0aGmcc
First severe flood ever recorded in SC?
Like there has never, ever been flooding there before?
And never ever has there been drought, ever, anywhere.
Just perfect 70 degree sunny weather with light rain storms until the evil SUV came along…
Face it - your cult of global warming covers all bases. It can never be disproved. All bad things are the result of it. All dissidence must be silenced.
And the ONLY solution is bigger and bigger government, more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes.
I am not a South Carolina resident. I’m in Florida. Although SC is known as the “Palmetto State”, we have palmettos here as well and I thought the name “Sunshine” wouldn’t be appropriate.
Good thinking on the name Palmy.
Lol, when I came across this blog I thought I died and went to heaven, given the crazy stuff that was happening all around me in real estate. Couldn’t even find a decent rental for a decent price, the world had gone nutz. Here was an island of sanity. So I was sitting in my moldy dump of an apartment, anxious to sign on and trying to come up with a commenting handle. I looked out the window at a palmetto, and voila! A star was born!
Meltdown inducing rage on the HBB
http://goo.gl/e0cPhX
The Anatomy of Denial - Multiculturalist delusions in an age of terrorism.
November 23, 2015 - Bruce Thornton
The murder of 27 hotel guests in Mali’s capital city by Boko Haram, now an al Qaeda franchisee, highlights yet again the delusional futility of asserting that, as Hillary Clinton put it in a tweet, “Islam is not our adversary. Muslims are peaceful and tolerant people and have nothing whatsoever to do with terrorism.” Like Obama, Hillary also vigorously condemns the use of a phrase like “Islamist radicalism.”
These evasions are contrary to the history and doctrines of Islam consistent over 14 centuries, and contradict the professed motives for the continuing violence perpetrated across the globe–27,295 deadly attacks just since 9/11– by Islamic terrorist groups who emulate the Prophet and take seriously his injunction to “slay the idolaters wherever you find them, and take them captive and besiege them, and lie in wait for them in every ambush” (9.5), one of 109 verses–the direct commands of Allah– that order war against infidels.
Moreover, that most Muslims do not engage directly in such violence, or may even condemn it, does not change the fundamental doctrines that justify it, no more than the millions of Catholic women who use birth control invalidate the church’s doctrine against contraception. The doctrine of jihad has been part of Islam from its beginning, enjoined by the Koran and Hadith, and confirmed and celebrated by the most eminent Islamic historians, jurisprudents, and theologians. One of the most famous, the late-14th century writer Ibn Khaldun, wrote in the Muqaddimah, “In the Muslim community, the holy war is a religious duty, because of the universalism of the Muslim mission and the obligation to convert everybody to Islam either by persuasion or by force.” When we see Muslims in the 21st century killing and dying in service to this traditional religious imperative created in the 7th century, it is perverse blindness to claim that there is no connection between Islam and Islamic terrorism.
The more important question is why anyone would assert something that would have struck our Western ancestors–for a thousand years the victims of Muslim invasion, occupation, enslavement, and slaughter– as a dangerous fantasy. One rationale appeared in the months after 9/11, when George W. Bush distinguished al Qaeda from the larger Muslim community and engaged in outreach to the latter, inviting imams to the White House and proclaiming Islam the “religion of peace.” The idea was that alienating millions of Muslims would make it harder to fight the jihadists, and even aid in their recruitment. This tactic, of course, has been an obvious failure for over a decade, as there is no evidence that being nice to Muslims–for example, rescuing Afghan and Iraqi Muslims from murderous autocrats–changed traditional Muslim attitudes toward infidels, and predisposed them to turn on their fellow Muslims.
So too has been our ignorance of history. Worse yet, what history we do rely on is false or ideologically warped. Few politicians in charge of our foreign policy seem to be aware of the long, violent assault of Islam against the West, the chronicle of massacre, slaving, kidnapping, occupation, and exploitation, all in service to the commands of Allah and the practices of Mohammed. At the same time, our president invents the mythic “golden age” of enlightenment and tolerance in Muslim Cordoba, harps on the Crusades and the Inquisition, excoriates Israel for defending itself against the progeny of invaders, colonizers, and immigrants to the ancient Jewish homeland of Judea and Samaria, and apologizes for imperialism and colonialism. Meanwhile Muslim Turkey is in its fifth decade of the occupation of northern Cyprus that followed an invasion accompanied by ethnic cleansing, population transfers from Turkey, and the destruction or vandalizing of 300 churches.
Such distorted history, in which the West is to blame for dysfunctions created by Muslims themselves, justifies an apologetic tone like that of Obama’s Cairo speech, and rationalizes Muslim violence as an understandable reaction to historical injustice–just as John Kerry did in his despicable comments that the Charlie Hebdo murders had a “rationale that you could attach yourself to.”
“If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, it’s not affordable nor can you afford it.
Fire up those coal power plants!
——————–
Cleaner atmosphere means more Arctic sea-ice melt, study says
Arctic Newswire | 11/22/2015 | Yereth Rosen
To protect human health and safeguard the environment, governments and utility companies around the world have worked — successfully — to reduced the amount of sulfur dioxide released into the atmosphere.
But there’s a downside to cleaning the air of sulfur dioxide and similar pollutants: Arctic sea ice is more exposed to solar heat, and more of it melts.
Now, Environment Canada researchers, in a study published in Geophysical Research Letters, have put a number on the sea-ice melt that reduced emissions of sulfur dioxide (and certain other aerosols, tiny particles that are suspended in the atmosphere) are expected to cause: about 400,000 square miles or 1 million square kilometers.
That’s the amount of ice melt, according to the study’s calculation, that’s likely to be attributable to reductions of human-caused emissions of sulfur dioxide and similar light-reflecting air pollutants by the end of the century. That figure will account for 25 to 40 percent of the expected seasonal sea-ice melt, depending on future emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, the study says.
You know what would really help expand the seasonal ice shelf?
A nice long nuclear winter.
Nah - all you need is just one massive volcano
Happens in nature on a regular basis.
Happens in nature on a regular basis.
How did that work out for the dinosaurs?
Theirs might have been a meteor strike. A much worse situation.
And here we are, without any means to defend the planet from meteors. Let’s all curse the people responsible for that.
I’m sure that we can redirect some of that defense spending to create the Global Asteroid Defense System (GADS). Reagan would approve!
I’m not sure that they would moral and efficient. The better solution might be to severely shrink the government so that the private sector has the resources to build the system.
like 1979 TIME Mag ice age coming
Republican accuses Republicans on climate change
First EPA chief accuses Republicans of ignoring science for political gain
Former EPA chief under Nixon calls it like it is. “Instead of treating it as a serious problem they are going through all the stages of denial. They are now at the stage of saying that it’s too expensive to do anything about climate change, which is no solution at all, they may as well just deny it’s a problem.”
We need more leaders like William Ruckelshaus to call out the GOP, who have sold themselves like hookers to the fossil fuel industry.
WPA seems to want to comment here, but starts off with a general attack on this blog and most who post here. Hmmm, WPA, why would I pay for you to do that? Why would I spend hours moderating so you can put me and others here down like that? It would be a lot easier and cheaper just to ban you like I have so many other ungrateful a–holes.
Ben Jones what are the rules now? Can I call someone a bedwetter? Can I call someone a dumb f*ing goyim (I’m a goyim)? How about libtard? Teabagger? Knuckle dragger? Window licker? Daughter diddler? Leg humper? Subway groper? Is the term chimpout racist against black people? How about poor white trash? Illegal Mexcrement? Camel jockeys? Red Sea pedestrians? Lolas? Jenkum huffers?
Some clarification is needed, thanks
How about:
And P.S. you’re not a Christian.
You don’t get to cloak your neocon behind Jesus without being called out on it. There is nothing Christian about neocon ideology. Nothing.
For instance, I have my own definition of troll. I’ve never told anyone what it is because otherwise trolls might try to get around it. Clarification isn’t always helpful.
WPA says I am censoring him. I am not; I’m trying to determine if he’s an ungrateful a–hole who should be banned. He says I am singling him out. I am not. I have banned hundreds, maybe thousands of ungrateful a–holes in the last 11 years (next month). He asks why don’t I let the readers decide. Because they aren’t paying for this blog. Some chip in a bit, and I appreciate all the help I can get. But what price is there on 11 years of moderating from before sunrise to bedtime? Thousands of blog posts that each took hours of research to put together. This is comment number 2,496,947, and I had two HBB’s before this one.
Besides, I’m the only one that can decide.
Exactly. I’ve seen posts of mine not make it, and deservedly so, in retrospect. What, I’m going to get all butt-hurt about it? It’s not my blog, I’m just lucky I’m allowed to even post here, and I took my brief banning in the spirit it was meant, in other words, lose the potty mouth.
“I’ve never told anyone”
The key to effective moderation.
“WPA seems to want to comment here, but starts off with a general attack on this blog and most who post here.”
This is the sort of phenomena I’ll never understand. Why would somebody want to comment and attack the blog or the blogger? I mean, why not just leave if they don’t like it? Or take a time-out and cool down. It’s like attending a party, scarfing up a bunch of food and drinks and then barfing on the host.
Wonder what set WPA off? Maybe it was my post on Soros.
Whoopsie, I see what the problem is. Sigh. Global warming.
Which, by the way, is one of the results of global warring.
I think I read somewhere that there was Global warming, but it only caused floods in South Carolina.
Paid posters seem to get really hot under the collar when you point out what they are doing. I challenged one on our local real estate blog and he (?) just came unglued (not good commenting ettiquette). He never could refute my assertation, and I haven’t seen a post from him in months.
Is it OK to point out hypocrisy?
This.
“US Manufacturing PMI Collapses To 2 Year Low As New Orders, Employment Slow”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-23/us-manufacturing-pmi-collapses-2-year-low-new-orders-employment-slow
The wheels are coming off the dumb.borrowed.money ponzi scheme.
Go ahead and google ‘obama’ and ‘debt’ and look at the very first result. A a table appears with some very ugly numbers in it. The clown has racked up $6 trillion in new debt in 7 years.
To put it in perspective.
In seven years - Obama has racked up more debt than every other administration COMBINED and accounting for inflation.
To put it another way.
If interest rate were allowed to normalized (ie - just go back top 5%), it would take every last dollar of federal discretionary spending just to pay the interest on the debt.
The votes of the FSA don’t come cheap to keep the liberals/progressives in power.
Paying for W’s wars, prescription drug benefits, bank bailouts must have contributed to some of that, don’t you think?
Of course it did. Wars, medicare D, recession and tax cuts up through 2009. Then O took over and things got better. People are still mad, because O did not fix everything fast enough. Key: O did not break it. Looks like Hillary will continue fixing the mess.
01/26/2015
WASHINGTON — The federal government’s 2015 budget deficit will fall slightly this year to $468 billion, the lowest since President Obama took office, according to the annual budget outlook released Monday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
The annual deficit topped $1 trillion for each of Obama’s first four years in office, including a record $1.4 trillion in 2009. Deficits have since fallen due to a combination of federal spending cuts and economic growth. The government had a shortfall of $483 billion in 2014.
“In CBO’s estimation, increases in consumer spending, business investment and residential investment will drive the economic expansion this year and over the next few years,” states the report.
CBO also projects the unemployment rate will fall further — to 5.3% by 2017 — as more people are encouraged to enter or stay in the workforce. The budget agency estimates that the number of U.S. residents without health insurance will drop from 42 million last year to 36 million this year, largely because the Affordable Care Act.
Top Democrats hailed the budget outlook as proof that Obama’s economic policies have been effective. “Over the last few years as deficits have fallen, so too has the effectiveness of Republican rhetoric about a ‘big government’ boogeyman,” said Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y.
Obummer continued the wars, prescription drug rip off and all the other junk that continues to this day.
Yes, we are all mad at O for not fixing all the Bush mistakes fast enough.
Not only did he fail to fix them, he augmented them and continued them.
I agree, Bush and the GOP caused a huge mess.
Jeb!
He has failed.
Obama has struck down many of the responsible welfare reform Billy signed in the mid 90’s.
You forgot to mention Bush’s tax cuts and a recession that was either the worst or the second worst since 1945, depending on how it’s measured.
How much of it was because he put W’s 2 wars on the books, instead of off in accounting fairy tale land?
How much of it was 7 years of continuation of W’s 2 wars?
All of it.
continuation?
The U.S.–Iraq Status of Forces Agreement (official name: Agreement Between the United States of America and the Republic of Iraq On the Withdrawal of United States Forces from Iraq and the Organization of Their Activities during Their Temporary Presence in Iraq) was a status of forces agreement (SOFA) between Iraq and the United States, signed by President George W. Bush in 2008. It established that U.S. combat forces would withdraw from Iraqi cities by June 30, 2009, and all U.S. combat forces will be completely out of Iraq by December 31, 2011.[1] The pact required criminal charges for holding prisoners over 24 hours, and required a warrant for searches of homes and buildings that were not related to combat.[1] U.S. contractors working for U.S. forces would have been subject to Iraqi criminal law, while contractors working for the State Department and other U.S. agencies would retain their immunity. If U.S. forces committed still undecided “major premeditated felonies” while off-duty and off-base, they would have been subjected to an undecided procedures laid out by a joint U.S.-Iraq committee if the U.S. certified the forces were off-duty.[2][3][1][4]
The agreement expired at midnight on December 31, 2011, even though the United States completed its final withdrawal of troops from Iraq on December 16, 2011. The symbolic ceremony in Baghdad officially “cased” (retired) the flag of U.S. forces in Iraq, according to army tradition.[5]
And tens of billions of dollars spent and thousands of DoD personnel still there.
/fail.
7 years of obama…
A filibuster proof democrat senate and a super majority of democrats in the house.
And all we get from democrats is that it is STILL Bush’s fault and we need at least four years of Hillary! to continue the healing.
That is the democrat position in a nutshell.
And they wonder why Trump is so popular.
Bush Wars (kicked the beehive)
Bush Tax cuts
Bush Medicare D
Bush spending $1.4 Trillion in 2009
Too Big To Fail
let me know when this is erased from history.
Trump is popular among the ignorant! Free walls, you get a car, you get a car…..
Obummer continued the wars, prescription drug rip off and all the other junk that continues to this day.
/fail
Labor Force Participation Rate Falls To 1977 Levels In October
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Is everyone chronically unemployed or underemployed?
Much of it is called retirement.
These days, it’s the young folks who are retiring.
And moving to Portland OR or Nashville. Home brewing and songwriting is the new “cottage industry”.
“Much of it is called retirement.”
The latest job report showed most of the people who have jobs were 55+.
Sorry SnowFlake.
Because no one retired in 1977?
These are participation RATES.
Math is hard sometimes…
It’s caused by the aging of the population. You may have heard of the large number of people called the Baby Boomer generation. The graph includes all people over the age of 16. The portion of that group (people 16 and older) that is over 65 has been growing steadily for the past few years. That’s just one of the reasons that that graph is not useful.
And the larger demographic is the 18-55 cohort my friend.
Nice try.
It’s larger, but as a fraction of the total group of people over the age of 16, it’s shrinking. The issue is pretty simple. An employment statistic that includes everyone over the age of 16 is just useless.
Nonsense.
A complete collapse in available employment opportunities is what it is.
Data my friend.
An employment statistic that includes everyone over the age of 16 is the true employment rate statistic.
If you want to be thorough, go ahead and include the kids as well.
No my friend. We want to be accurate hence the reason Labor Force Participation rate is used.
Let the kids go to school.
Damn Mike
You better go back to the home base and get some more talking points because you looked like Ronda Rousey in her last fight after that thread.
Ronda Rousey Knockout from Holly Holm - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4IdJPFHEY4 - 234k - Cached - Similar pages
Nov 14, 2015
11k Boomers turn 65 each day for the next 15 yrs. Use the info the make $$. DOnt cry.
Liberace,
They’ve all got one foot on a banana peel and the other in the grave leaving 35 million excess empty houses.
Cheeze and crackers, HA, pick a number and stick with it! One day it’s 20M, then a day or two ago you said an almost-believable 4M+, and now you’re up to 35M excess houses?
Get those meds adjusted stat!
That’s in addition to the already empty, excess and defaulted inventory.
Data my friend. Data.
What was the source for your data on that excess inventory again? What is the number you are using today? I’ll even settle for your usual Zilloto links.
It’s been posted and discussed over and over again my friend. You just don’t like it. Remember….
What did you think was going to happen with housing with 25 million excess, empty and defaulted houses in an environment of collapsing demand?
Obama Quietly Releases Plans For 2,224 Regulations Ahead Of Turkey Day
Gotta love it! Control the sheeple!
Why dont we export them? Africans could live off of them. Got protein?
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A mountain of peanuts is piling up in the U.S. south, threatening to hand American taxpayers a near $2-billion bailout bill over the next three years, and leaving the government with a big chunk of the crop on its books.
Peanut growers in states including Georgia and Alabama boosted sowing acreage by a fifth this spring and now are wrapping up harvesting their 3.1-million-ton crop, the second-largest ever, even as prices plumb seven-year lows.
There is a debate over why it is happening and how long the supplies and costs will build. Farmers and peanut groups blame the glut on poorer market conditions for alternative crops, such as cotton and corn, and improving yields as a result of crop rotation and new varieties.
Yellen the Felon gets called out by Ralph Nadar.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-23/furious-ralph-nader-calls-out-fed-tribune-plutocratic-crony-capitalism-janet-yellen-
Its funny how the car dealers tell you how much your gonna save on the windshield in big numbers and the price is in the fine print.
Drove by chevy dealer and they had “save 6000″ on the windshield in neon numbers. Scam?
“Central Banks Are Out Of Dry Powder” Stockman Warns “Another Financial Crisis Is Unavoidable”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-23/central-banks-are-out-dry-powder-stockman-warns-another-financial-crisis-unavoidable
qe 4 & 5? Propping up asset prices is not the job of a central bank. We need need free markets.
….and will cause irreparable harm.
Donald Trump is leading an increasingly fact-free 2016 campaign
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/11/23/the-2016-campaign-is-largely-fact-free-thats-a-terrible-thing-for-american-democracy/
The Donald lives in your empty skull…… rent free.