Bits Bucket for November 26, 2015
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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Do you plan to eat turkey, crow, or neither for dinner today?
Oil
Oil prices have moved into ’super contango’
John Kilduff
17 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
It looks to be a volatile final few weeks for crude oil prices. So far, the low for WTI oil prices in 2015 of $37.75 a barrel set in August stands as the low price point — but not for long.
There is a global supply glut, not just of crude oil, but, increasingly, refined products that will likely break the back of price support in the market, sending oil prices into a holiday plunge. So much so, land based storage tanks are filling up and increasing numbers of volumes are being stored on tankers.
In a recent report, the International Energy Agency highlighted the fact that global inventories of all petroleum products were at 3 billion barrels, which was a record. And just over 2 billion of those barrels are resident here in the U.S.
Each week, in the summary page of its petroleum-status report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration references the fact that U.S. crude-oil inventories are at levels not seen in over 80 years. Inventories of gasoline are well-above their average and diesel fuels are also well-supplied.
The vast crude oil glut or mega-glut is manifest in the West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil price curves, which have moved into a “super-contango.” (Yup, there are lots of superlatives needed to describe the current state of the market.)
Contango refers to when the front-month or near-term futures contract are trading less than or at a discount to longer-dated futures contracts.
The difference between Brent crude-oil contracts, one year apart, recently hit a record $8 a barrel. The January 2016 WTI futures contract is trading at a hefty discount of $1.50 per barrel to the February contract. In tightly-supplied markets, when crude oil prices are strong, that spread value is the complete opposite.
…
I’m trying to wrap my head around the factors that give rise to “super cotango”.
1) Greater fools, some of whom have been known to post here, believed that oil would soon return to $100 / bbl following this year’s 60% off sale.
2) Some too-clever-by-half folks put their money where their mouths early in 2015 and bought billions of dollars worth of oil, only to store it, for a cost, at land and at sea.
3) As luck, or perhaps Murphy’s Law, would have it, while supply remained high thanks to very low interest financing plus the expectation of near-term price recovery, demand collapsed, creating a glut.
4) Given that supply and demand remain in a prolonged state of imbalance, since the current price remains too high for the rates of current production and consumption to equilibrate, there’s still a river of oil flowing into storage.
5) However, the available storage space is running out, driving storage costs up to a level where it is less costly to sell new product at a low spot market price than to store additional oil at high cost in the hopes of selling for a high enough future price to cover the cost.
Summary: An explosion of storage costs as available storage space runs out makes it cheaper to sell now, further depressing the spot market price relative to the future price, than to store more oil at a cost which locks in future losses. The result of this adjustment to a huge negative expectations shock is super-cotango.
2) Some too-clever-by-half folks put their money where their mouths early in 2015 and bought billions of dollars worth of oil, only to store it, for a cost, at land and at sea.
Don’t be too quick to judge, PB. These folks are often fully hedged, rather than speculating; when they do that, they are assisting with price discovery AND price stability.
In other words, when the near-term futures contract falls below the price of the long contract PLUS the cost of storage, it is a risk-free arbitrage to buy the near-term contract, write the long-term contract, and arrange the storage. If they do that, and lock in all three contracts, then they’re not subject to the risk of a fluctuation in the price of oil (except for any difference between the different-dated contracts—generally very small relative to spot swings).
By entering or exiting those positions, they help apply rationality to pricing in all three of those markets—a general good for all of us.
Now, if they aren’t fully hedged, then they’re just speculating, fair game for pot-shots and schadenfreude in my book…
Thanks for your excellent explanation of how hedging is supposed to work.
I’m guessing that a fair number of hogs weren’t properly hedged, with future slaughter a likely result. I look forward to copying and pasting excerpts from MSM articles that document this lack of precaution.
PS Does super cotango create risk-free arbitrage opportunities?
“…they help apply rationality to pricing in all three of those markets—a general good for all of us.”
My lovely wife paid $2.39/gal for gas at Costco last night, which quite recently sold for over $3.00/gal, and this is against the backdrop of Mideast unrest and recent high profile terrorist attacks. I have a hunch the hog barbecue is already in progress and soon to increase once the current state of high terror alert subsides and the Fed makes good on its liftoff plan.
I’m guessing that a fair number of hogs weren’t properly hedged, with future slaughter a likely result.
You may well be right—in which case, I will enjoy the smell of hogs roasting over a hot fire equally as much as you.
PS Does super cotango create risk-free arbitrage opportunities?
Absolutely. In fact, that is essentialy the definition of super-contango: the long-term futures contract price is well above what would be explained by either storage or cost-of-funds. Contango is the normal equilibrium of the futures pricing being slightly above current spot pricing, typically by the cost of storage and cost of funds; super-contango means futures prices are well above that normal range, strongly suggesting a chance for arbitrage—e.g. sell that overpriced long-term future!
Disclaimer: I am not a futures trader, though I have traded futures.
How do you hedge against the risk that green extremism will get laws passed that force us all to switch from automobiles to bicycles, driving the oil price to zero?
Beware green extremists!
Oil and gas companies ‘risk losing $2tn’
By Richard Anderson Business reporter, BBC News
25 November 2015
From the section Business
The world’s biggest oil and gas companies risk losing $2.2tn (£1.5tn) by overestimating future demand for fossil fuels, a report suggests.
By underestimating both legislation to cut the use of dirty fuels and the development of clean energy, these firms are investing in assets that may prove worthless, says Carbon Tracker.
Shell, Exxon Mobil and BP are among those most a risk, it says.
The report comes on the eve of the Paris climate change summit.
“If the industry misreads future demand by underestimating technology and policy advances, this can lead to an excess of supply and create stranded assets,” says the report by the green think tank.
…
get laws passed that force us all to switch from automobiles to bicycles
Probability of that event: zero.
Does it seem like oil is perpetually falling towards $40 / bbl? </i
Marketwatch dot com
Oil prices drop on supply glut worries
By Jenny W. Hsu and Neanda Salvaterra
Published: Nov 26, 2015 8:23 a.m. ET
U.S. production looks robust despite slowing inventory growth
Getty Images
Oil prices fell on Thursday amid signs of robust U.S. production despite data showing a lower-than-expected increase in U.S. oil inventories and a decline in the number of working oil-rigs in the country.
Brent crude (LCOF6, -1.19%), the global oil benchmark, fell 0.78% to $45.81 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures (CLF6, -0.79%) were trading down at 0.37% at $42.87 a barrel.
Prices had rallied briefly Wednesday on news of lower than expected U.S. inventory increases and nine less U.S. oil rigs from last week.
But sentiment changed as analysts digested data from the Energy Information Administration. While U.S. production of crude slid by 17,000 barrels a day to 9.165 million barrels, compared with the previous week, the four-week average daily production of 9.173 million barrels was still 144,000 barrels above the same period last year.
“Investors will be quickly reminded of the persistent supply glut which could see any substantial rally higher soon lose momentum,” said analyst Kash Kamal in research note from Sucden Financial.
At 488.2 million barrels, the U.S. crude stockpiles is at levels unseen in at least 80 years.
Commerzbank said in a note that the sharp fall in U.S. drilling activity has yet to lead to any more pronounced drop in U.S. crude oil production. That needs to happen if oil prices are to make any kind of sustainable recovery, the bank said.
Excess supply and tepid demand growth has sheared oil prices by nearly half since summer last year.
…
How can oil perpetually fall towards $40 / bbl without ever going below $40 / bbl?
MarketWatch dot com
Oil prices drop on supply glut worries
By Jenny W. Hsu and Neanda Salvaterra
Published: Nov 26, 2015 8:23 a.m. ET
U.S. production looks robust despite slowing inventory growth
Getty Images
Oil prices fell on Thursday amid signs of robust U.S. production despite data showing a lower-than-expected increase in U.S. oil inventories and a decline in the number of working oil-rigs in the country.
Brent crude (LCOF6, -1.19%), the global oil benchmark, fell 0.78% to $45.81 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures CLF6, -0.79% were trading down at 0.37% at $42.87 a barrel.
Prices had rallied briefly Wednesday on news of lower than expected U.S. inventory increases and nine less U.S. oil rigs from last week.
But sentiment changed as analysts digested data from the Energy Information Administration. While U.S. production of crude slid by 17,000 barrels a day to 9.165 million barrels, compared with the previous week, the four-week average daily production of 9.173 million barrels was still 144,000 barrels above the same period last year.
“Investors will be quickly reminded of the persistent supply glut which could see any substantial rally higher soon lose momentum,” said analyst Kash Kamal in research note from Sucden Financial.
At 488.2 million barrels, the U.S. crude stockpiles is at levels unseen in at least 80 years.
Commerzbank said in a note that the sharp fall in U.S. drilling activity has yet to lead to any more pronounced drop in U.S. crude oil production. That needs to happen if oil prices are to make any kind of sustainable recovery, the bank said.
Excess supply and tepid demand growth has sheared oil prices by nearly half since summer last year.
…
The good news of falling prices just keeps coming. Great stuff but here is what I want to know…..
Why do falling prices cause such long faces and sulking?
“Why do falling prices cause such long faces and sulking?”
Paid $1.69 for regular today in AZ. Big Smile : ) !
Early warning signs for China economy
Six interest-rate cuts in a year and expedited fiscal spending have yet to revive growth as overcapacity and weakness in old drivers weigh on
China’s economy
Bloomberg November 26, 2015 Last Updated at 00:10 IST
China’s economy is still showing a muted response to waves of monetary and fiscal easing as of the half-way mark for the last quarter of the year, some of the earliest indicators suggest.
A privately compiled purchasing managers’ index and a gauge based on search engine interest in small and medium-sized businesses deteriorated this month, while a sentiment indicator dropped sharply from October. Combined, the reports make gloomy reading ahead of official releases, the earliest of which will be manufacturing and services PMI reports due December 1. Six interest-rate cuts in a year and expedited fiscal spending have yet to revive growth as overcapacity and weakness in old drivers like manufacturing and residential construction weigh on the world’s second-biggest economy. If official data confirm the sluggishness, Premier Li Keqiang’s growth goal may be missed for a second-straight year.
The unofficial purchasing managers indexes for manufacturing and services sectors both declined, snapping increases in the two previous months. The manufacturing PMI declined to 42.4 in November from 43.3 in October, while the non-manufacturing reading fell to 42.9 from 44.2, according to reports jointly compiled by China Minsheng Banking Corp. and the China Academy of New Supply-side Economics. Numbers below 50 signal deteriorating conditions.
“China’s economy hasn’t bottomed yet and downward pressures are mounting,” Jia Kang, director of the Beijing-based academy and former head of the finance ministry’s research institute, wrote in an e-mail.
…
China property sales growth to slow in 2016: Moody’s
(Xinhua)
Updated: 2015-11-27 09:55:01
A housing project in Nanjing, capital of East China’s Jiangsu province, Sept 21, 2014.
[Photo/Asianewsphoto]
BEIJING - Property sales growth in China will slow modestly by no more than 5 percent in 2016, a Moody’s report said Thursday.
Nationwide sales growth will exceed 10 percent for the full year in 2015, as the effect of supportive monetary and regulatory policies are largely reflected in this year’s sales, Moody’s estimates, adding the stronger sales growth will result in a higher base for comparison for 2016.
“We believe the positive sales momentum seen this year, with national sales up 18 percent year on year in the Jan-Oct period, is the result of the supportive government policies implemented since the second half of 2014,” said Kaven Tsang, a Moody’s vice president and senior credit officer.
While growth in 2016 will slow as the effect of such policies tapers off, leading and financially strong rated developers should continue to gain market share and increase sales as the industry consolidates, Tsang said.
The report further highlighted that residential home prices continued to recover in October for China’s 70 major cities, although at a slower pace than earlier this year.
Of 70 large and medium-sized cities surveyed in October, new home prices climbed month on month in 27, down from 39 in the previous month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
On the other hand, fewer cities reported month-on-month price increases in October, indicating upward pricing pressure is easing, Moody’s said.
China’s property market took a downturn in 2014 due to weak demand and a supply glut. The cooling has continued into 2015, with both sales and prices falling and investment slowing.
To combat the housing market weakness and a broader economic slowdown, China’s central bank has cut benchmark interest rates five times since last November and lowered banks’ reserve requirement ratio three times since February.
Millions of Debt Donkeys, MT Pockets and Loan Owners will be feasting on CraterTaters.
printing money and buying other countries stuff seems to be working fine.
turkey, crow, or neither for dinner today?
I’m still trying to deal with learning that the Pilgrims were wife-swapping commies.
It alters my imagined vision of the first Thanksgiving. Now I’m picturing people dancing on the tables, putting their log cabin keys in a hat that gets passed around, that sort of thing.
Wife swapping Sharia law of their own. On my mom’s side ancestors from England were some of the first Refugees in the 1500s in England. My dads German ancestors arrived some 300 years later.
I welcome the Syrian refugees.
My family came to Colts Head New jersey in 1691. I’m a Grandin or Grandine! and I made a prime rib roast for my little family of one!
Ann, enjoy the prime rib!
I know, i gave up meat for a year and a half!
Yesterday I cooked it in my infra red oven with stuffed mushrooms. i ate all the shrooms with no room for the primo ribo! Looks like sandwich and chips for today and all weekend!
More power to you, dollar bill. I say let the refugees in as well.
I say you and bill pay for them.
I agree, Palmy.
If we lived in a country that promoted and safeguarded individualism, I might think otherwise.
What we don’t need is to import illegals into a nanny state.
I am against borders and taxation.
Bill, what’s interesting to me is that while the border to our south with Tijuana can easily take over two hours to cross, it took us maybe 5 minutes to cross the border from Germany into the Czech Republic during our visit a few years ago.
And the drugs apparently still make their way north from Mexico into the U.S.
How do you explain this contrast?
Dumb questions of the day:
1) Will oil get back to over $80 / bbl by December, which begins next week?
2) is China on track for achieving its 7 percent GDP growth target in 2015, which ends within a month?
You’re not to worry, PB, it’s all contained!
NOT
“Do you plan to eat turkey, crow, or neither for dinner today?”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLeEluVVCLA - 169k -
My favorite Thanksgiving song. I always tear up when the turkeys do their pas de deux.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7v-LQsQKoY
Happy Turkey Day, phony!
Fantastic! I under appreciated what Fred Gwynne brought to that role when I watched the show as a kid.
I’ll have an iceberg wedge lathered in oil & vinegar! That should cover a few different dinner topics!
Tomorrow begins the made dash for those with no cash at retail centers everywhere.
Lola, will you be fighting in the aisles of Walmart for the latest in womens fashion?
I got a wireless speaker with my wells fargo points! Even though I always pay down my card, those fricking airfares and hotels are out of this world. Wish i could ride a private jet for free!
We just bought a Bluetooth speaker last night ourselves. Enjoy!
GET to walmart today and support the 70% consumer economy u serf!
The annual running of the oafs.
I just checked wireless router prices in the Black Friday ads at four different stores - they matched up to Amazon prices almost to the dollar. So no need to get up early - I can order any time I like and have it shipped directly to me.
To Junk Bond Traders “It Almost Feels Like 2008″
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-25/junk-bond-traders-it-almost-feels-2008
mortgage paper=junk bonds
Way OT:
Join me in tweeting and nagging vanguard via fb into offering both a mlp and preferred stock funds
Are indices published for Master Limited Partnerships and Preferred Stocks? If you could point Vanguard to an index for each you may get better traction.
I would love those options
pitch vg on it
they finally came out w a emerging bond fund
Will do.
May I ask you to contact the same re: HSA accounts? Time for Vanguard to offer those as well.
I took a look at the expense ratios for the mutual funds offered in my HSA account. 48 bps for an S&P 500 index fund, and that was the lowest one of the bunch.
Forty eight basis points for an investment product that Vanguard offers for about five basis points.
Drone Whistleblower Claim – Pilots Often High on Drugs; Refer to Children as “Fun Size Terrorists”
The killings, part of the Obama administration’s targeted assassination program, are aiding terrorist recruitment and thus undermining the program’s goal of eliminating such fighters, the veterans added. Drone operators refer to children as “fun-size terrorists” and liken killing them to “cutting the grass before it grows too long,” said one of the operators, Michael Haas, a former senior airman in the Air Force. Haas also described widespread drug and alcohol abuse, further stating that some operators had flown missions while impaired.
Haas also described widespread alcohol and drug abuse among drone pilots. Drone operators, he said, would frequently get intoxicated using bath salts and synthetic marijuana to avoid possible drug testing and in an effort to “bend that reality and try to picture yourself not being there.” Haas said that he knew at least a half-dozen people in his unit who were using bath salts and that drug use had “impaired” them during missions.
Sounds like past time for another Nobel Peace Prize…
Obama sez no threat of terrorist attacks over the holiday weekend.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2015/11/25/obama-national-security-council-islamic-state-thanksgiving/76366960/
If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor.
To be fair, Obama is only saying what he is told by his advisers. Given the bum steers he’s gotten from Centcomm and others over the years, do ya feel lucky? Do ya, punk?
Obama is only saying what he is told by his advisers.
Reading what’s written on the prompter more like it.
You are more likely to be killed by a falling television than a terrorist.
Falling television or an enraged monitor-throwing HBB reader.
“You are more likely to be killed by a falling television than a terrorist.”
That’s what he should have said.
Meanwhile, anyone remember that story about a week or so ago that the immigration trend was reversing and more people crossing the border going home than coming in? Not so fast, Pedro:
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/thousands-children-crossed-us-mexico-border-october-35413803
Fun sized illegals.
Take my kid, please!
You are more likely to be killed by a falling television than a terrorist
The same could be said about AIDS.
But I am still not smoking crack at a Charlie Sheen party.
Conspicuously missing from President Hollande’s decisive declaration of war however, was any mention of the biggest elephant in the room: state-sponsorship.
A senior Western official familiar with a large cache of intelligence obtained this summer told the Guardian that “direct dealings between Turkish officials and ranking ISIS members was now ‘undeniable.’”
ISIS, in other words, is state-sponsored — indeed, sponsored by purportedly Western-friendly regimes in the Muslim world, who are integral to the anti-ISIS coalition. Which then begs the question as to why Hollande and other Western leaders expressing their determination to “destroy” ISIS using all means necessary, would prefer to avoid the most significant factor of all: the material infrastructure of ISIS’ emergence in the context of ongoing Gulf and Turkish state support for Islamist militancy in the region.
There are many explanations, but one perhaps stands out: the West’s abject dependence on terror-toting Muslim regimes, largely to maintain access to Middle East, Mediterranean and Central Asian oil and gas resources.
Take heart that no matter how much food you eat today, it is unlikely you will be able to actually put on more than a pound or so of fat. A pound of fat is 3500 calories. You could easily gain 5-10 pounds but most will be water, that, too, will pass.
3500 calories is a lunch at McDonalds for me.
America salutes you on your contribution.
This mornings snack. Before 4 egg mcmuffins and a supersized coke.
http://picpaste.com/pics/98e2c29f5ee0ad8f9be591250d722858.1448549818.jpeg
If you are used to and normally eat like that with all those calories then you will likely lose weight on thanksgiving!
Lola’s got dibs on the wishbone. He needs to wish his losses away.
That would be 300 Cheetos.
Enjoy!
http://www.calorieking.com/foods/calories-in-snacks-puffs-cheese-snack_f-ZmlkPTUyMzEz.html
I saw that 3500 calorie figure elsewhere. I try to get at least 570 calories on a cardio machine daily. Thanksgiving is an important day for me to work out. I am not eating much but I am trying to make up for the gluttony and war monger anti-refugee side.
3500 EXCESS calories. And your body needs to be able to absorb and process all the food to store those calories. When you gorge, it really isn’t able to absorb all of those calories and a good deal just passes through rather than being stored as fat.
Understood. I meant excess. So if I eat 2000 calories a day sedentary, I should be able to eat 2500 calories a day (0f course well-balanced) without putting on extra weight, provided I burn 500 calories. Also lifting weights - I never count that as calories burned, but it does. For instance, several sets of 20 push ups burn about five calories a set, I think.
Colleyville, TX Housing Craters; Prices Plummet 10% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/market-report/11-15/30983/colleyville-tx.xls?rt=14
If “Everything’s Awesome” Why Did Aussie CapEx Just Collapse By The Most In Its 30 Year History
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-25/if-everythings-awesome-why-did-aussie-capex-just-collapse-most-its-30-year-history
Buckle up.
uncle fed wont let stocks go down.
Over capacity of everything.
“China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association had suggested that the state buys 900,000 tonnes of aluminum, 30,000 tonnes of refined nickel, 40 tonnes of indium, and 400,000 tonnes of zinc…”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/25/us-china-metals-stocks-idUSKBN0TE1JD20151125#UdW7Kogmp3DDFE71.97
Middlesex County, MA Housing Craters; Prices Fall 6% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/middlesex-county-ma/home-values/
Bill Kreutzman, Bob Weir, Mickey Hart, the Dead & Company perform last night:
https://i.imgur.com/BBcX1GX.jpg
Region VIII
a recovery means you get to pay more for stuff? WTF
The war on cash, aka the Orwellian push to have total visibility over your income and assets so you can be taxed into oblivion, moves forward.
http://www.businessinsider.com/negative-interest-rates-switzerland-sweden-and-war-on-cash-2015-11
What do you call rising prices cause of higher demand?
What do you call rising prices because of increasing the money supply?
Is there a difference between the two?
Bitcoin and fractional gold, fractional platinum, my friends.
To the Pineapples: please proceed to your nearest barber store in accordance with the Dear Leader’s instructions to collectivists everywhere.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/12017870/North-Koreans-ordered-to-copy-Kim-Jong-uns-ambitious-hair-style.html
They’ve all gotta sport high-top Trumps? Awesome! How crazy will that look?
I may have to take a vacation there, take some pix, maybe hand out some bibles.
Nothing like a torrential downpour to expose shoddy construction.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/26/qatar-and-saudi-arabia-hit-by-floods-shutting-schools-and-blocking-roads
So, what body part or parts will they lop off when they find the person or persons responsible? Or do they just lay on the lash?
On the brighter side, it’s great that they’re getting some decent rain. Maybe it’ll make them less mean.
Snatch & grab Friday in Chicago?
http://www.sfgate.com/news/crime/article/Chicago-awaits-more-protests-over-police-shooting-6656193.php
New meaning to doorbuster specials….
50 years ago today, Arlo Guthrie was arrested for littering in Stockbridge, MA, inspiring “Alice’s Restaurant.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m57gzA2JCcM
Another American wakes up, takes the red pill, and can’t go back to sleep.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/the-armed-civilians-patrolling-the-mexican-border-to-keep-isis-out-of-america-a6750011.html
Before the economy crashed in 2008, Foley worked in heavy construction as a layout general foreman in Phoenix. It had taken him more than 30 years to rise from digging ditches in high school to overseeing a 150-man crew building high-rises. He built a comfortable life for himself that included a suburban abode, multiple cars and a swimming pool, he said.
But after the economy collapsed, construction work in Phoenix dried up, Foley said. He went from $40-an-hour work to struggling to find odd jobs that paid a third as much. His home was foreclosed, a divorce followed, and Foley said he found himself untethered and alone for the first time in decades.
“You know why they call it the American Dream?” he said. “Because you gotta be asleep to believe it.”
Foley said he spent two years looking for work, then gave up. He’d grown tried, he said, of losing jobs to less-skilled, Spanish-speaking, undocumented workers, who, he said, were willing to be paid off the books and without insurance.
He wanted to fight back against the banks, the corruption and the government that, he said, was allowing all of it to happen. Eventually, he settled on an idea: driving to the border and patrolling it himself.
“I’d rather fight an international drug syndicate than an international bank syndicate, even though they’re often part of the same thing,” he said. “If I try to fight this on Wall Street, I’ll lose.”
Puerto Rico about to default. Inside scoop on how this came about:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDIQNO8PS8M
And remember - this could never, ever happen in a western nation.
It would be unpossible…
Thanksgiving Day. Enjoy.
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/11/26/thanksgiving-day/
Another “renewable energy” scam backstopped by US taxpayers get ready to bite the dust.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/11/26/spain-braces-for-its-biggest-corporate-insolvency-ever/
Risk of cascading defaults. A pyramid of bad debt, used to fund a bad idea.
Washington DC FBs-to-be getting skittish about buying from greedhead sellers.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/11/25/the-predators-are-pouncing-on-the-dc-housing-market/
I’ll just leave this here:
http://dailycallernewsfoundation.org/2015/11/26/most-americans-celebrate-thanksgiving-as-christians/
consume! support the economy
I know some atheists who go along with it and pretend while they are guests.
Dogmatic atheists are even more annoying than dogmatic evangelicals.
No I think hey are equally a$$hats.
The tax man is buggering British “buy-to-let” landlords - once President Hillary Clinton is casting about for ways to fund the ever-growing FSA while still keeping the free trillions flowing to her plutocrat patrons, ‘Murican landlords will be rich targets for wealth extraction, aka taxation.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3334304/Huge-stamp-duty-rises-rental-properties-second-homes-set-kill-booming-market.html
Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels…….. Nothing.
do higher stock and home prices create a recovery? Over the past 8 years thats all that has happened.
somehow higher asset prices are suppose to create jobs.
A mystery, thinly disguised.
https://www.rt.com/news/323538-turkey-convoy-syria-attack/
Looks like payback.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=33e_1448478406
How’s that socialism working out for you, France?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/french-unemployment-rebounds-to-record-high-2015-11-26?link=MW_latest_news
Back to the future: Hitler finds out he’s in foreclosure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM&feature=player_embedded
Poor little traumatized snowflakes….
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/25/university-students-comforted-counseling-seeing-confederate-flag-laptop/
Clinton News Network (CNN) caught colluding with Hillary to smear Rand Paul.
http://theantimedia.org/exposed-hillary-caught-coordinating-with-cnn-to-smear-rand-paul/
Is Trump a fascist? Leading GOP talking heads and campaign (Rubio and Bush) officials have called him one.
Are the gloves off now? Will Trump not run as a third party candidate if he loses the primaries, saying he’s been “stabbed in the back”?
Politically-motivated hyperbole aside, is the claim that Trump is a fascist technically accurate?
The answer is no.
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/Decoder/2015/1125/Is-Donald-Trump-really-a-fascist
“It’s extraordinary, really – a word evocative of the terrible dictatorships of World War II linked with the current frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination. Generally speaking, fascism occurs when a complete dictator eradicates democratic opposition.
CNN takes the comparison seriously enough to ask experts in fascism what they think. The general conclusion: no, Trump’s not a fascist per se, but he does seem to have an “authoritarian sensibility.”
Just hyperbole.
Generally speaking, fascism occurs when a complete dictator eradicates democratic opposition.
True. But they don’t do that when they first appear on the political scene. It’s usually a long gradual descent until they start rounding up the opposition. The question is, is Trump on that slope?
The interesting thing about fascism, is that it insinuates itself by telling everybody their group (trade unions, the church, the rich, the poor, the conservatives, the liberals, the old, the young, the industrialists, the financiers) will be safe, even preferred. It’s not iconoclastic, anti-tradition, anti-church, like communism. This makes it seem to many that the new order is really just a strengthening of what was good in the old order. But in the long run everyone finds out (one at a time, of course, after going insane en masse)) that they’ve been offered a bum deal. In the logic of a fascist leader, there can be but one ruler. Alternative centers of power are too dangerous, unacceptable. All the fasces must be gathered up in the hands of the fascist ruler himself.
But it’s usually a long, slow slog to that point. At that point, however, things start happening rapidly.
The reason this is stupid is that you have no way of knowing what anyone is going to turn into. It’s almost as dumb as saying that Hillary will turn into a Peach the moment she comes to power. More likely that they both at their age are pretty much turned into what they will remain.
you have no way of knowing what anyone is going to turn into.
Following that logic, we should just vote randomly. Who knows what kind of leader anyone will turn into?
they both at their age are pretty much turned into what they will remain.
So Hillary will remain a boring centrist with neocon tendencies and strong ties to Wall Street, and Trump will remain an unpredictable narcissistic thin-skinned blowhard con man?
Comforting, I guess.
Soros hand-picked Obama to be his puppet, ensuring Bamy ran as a progressive, then once in office became Bush Lite. Hard to tell what Trump would do in office, but Hillary is completely predictable, as is any Soros stooge.
Hard to tell what Trump would do in office
Yeah, that’s pretty much the crux of the matter.
the crux
It sure would be nice if we could recall these capitol monkeys when they prove to be insidious.
What I like about Trump is that he is a monkey wrench. I want to throw a monkey wrench into the machinery.
The problem is, monkey wrenches that get thrown into the political machine tend to end up bent beyond repair.
Many years ago my mom mentioned to me that in the small Midwest town where she was raised, the townsfolk admired Hitler when he first came onto the scene in the 1930s. Some even sported similar mustaches to imitate his look.
For some reason Hitler’s popularity died down considerably in the subsequent decade. The upshot is that a populace cannot always tell who is a fascist before it is too late.
Trump…. A superb statesman with a squad of sexy strumpets.
http://goo.gl/41BFXj
That’s a great photo. Does The Don qualify for GQ-grade Secret Service protection?
+1 Better than MacArthur’s Philippines beach landing.
That photo makes me proud to be an American.
Yep
“Busted: Hillary Caught Coordinating With CNN To Smear Rand Paul”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-26/busted-hillary-caught-coordinating-cnn-smear-rand-paul
rand needs a new dew like trumps. this perm thing aint workn. he needs to be more masculine.
Rand Paul…. A peppery public servant with a posse of polished ___?
Tomorrow is Black Friday. Are any Black Lives Matter protests planned in your area for the event?
Oh dear lord, if they disrupt one of our god-given sales events tomorrow…it’s just too horrible to think about.
I bet President Trump will take care of them!
Israeli colonel captured amid a gaggle of IS. Caught by Iraqi army
http://journal-neo.org/2015/11/25/israeli-colonel-caught-with-is-pants-down/
‘Ever since the beginning of Russia’s very effective IS bombing of select targets in Syria on September 30, details of the very dirty role of not only Washington, but also NATO member Turkey under President Erdogan, Qatar and other states has come into the sunlight for the first time.’
‘It’s becoming increasingly clear that at least a faction in the Obama Administration has played a very dirty behind-the-scenes role in supporting IS in order to advance the removal of Syrian President Bashar al Assad and pave the way for what inevitably would be a Libya-style chaos and destruction which would make the present Syrian refugee crisis in Europe a mere warmup by comparison.’
‘The “pro-IS faction” in Washington includes the so-called neo-conservatives centered around disgraced former CIA head and executioner of the Iraqi “surge” General David Petraeus. It also includes US General John R. Allen, who since September 2014 had served as President Obama’s Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) and, until she resigned in February 2013, it included Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.’
‘Significantly, General John Allen, an unceasing advocate of a US-led “No Fly Zone” inside Syria along the border to Turkey, something President Obama refused, was relieved of his post on 23 October, 2015. That was shortly after launch of the highly-effective Russian strikes on Syrian IS and Al Qaeda’s Al Nusra Front terrorist sites changed the entire situation in the geopolitical picture of Syria and the entire Middle East.’
‘That Netanyahu’s Likud and the Israeli military work closely with Washington’s neo-conservative war-hawks is well-established, as is the vehement opposition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran. Israel regards the Iranian-backed Shi’a Islamist militant group, Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, as arch foe. Hezbollah has been actively fighting alongside the Syrian Army against ISIS in Syria. General Allen’s strategy of “bombings of ISIS” since he was placed in charge of the operation in September 2014, as Russia’s Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov have repeatedly pointed out, far from destroying ISIS in Syria, had vastly expanded their territorial control of the country. Now it becomes clear that that was precisely the intent of Allen and the Washington war faction.
Since at least 2013 Israeli military have also openly bombed what they claim were Hezbollah targets inside Syria. Investigation revealed that in fact Israel was hitting Syrian military and Hezbollah targets who are valiantly fighting against ISIS and other terrorists. De facto thereby Israel was actually helping ISIS, like General John Allen’s year-long “anti-ISIS” bombings.’
‘That a faction in the Pentagon has secretly worked behind-the-scenes to train, arm and finance what today is called ISIS or IS in Syria is now a matter of open record. In August 2012, a Pentagon document classified “Secret,” later declassified under pressure of the US NGO Judicial Watch, detailed precisely the emergence of what became the Islamic State or ISIS emerging from the Islamic State in Iraq, then an Al Qaeda affiliate.’
‘In December, 2014 the Jerusalem Post in Israel reported the findings of a largely ignored, and politically explosive report detailing UN sightings of Israeli military together with ISIS terrorist combatants. The UN peacekeeping force, UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), stationed since 1974 along the Golan Heights border between Syria and Israel, revealed that Israel had been working closely with Syrian opposition terrorists, including Al Qaeda’s Al Nusra Front and IS in the Golan Heights, and “kept close contact over the past 18 months.” The report was submitted to the UN Security Council. Mainstream media in the US and West buried the explosive findings.’
‘The UN documents showed that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were maintaining regular contact with members of the so-called Islamic State since May of 2013. The IDF stated that this was only for medical care for civilians, but the deception was broken when the UNDOF observers identified direct contact between IDF forces and ISIS soldiers, including giving medical care to ISIS fighters. Observations even included the transfer of two crates from the IDF to ISIS forces, the contents of which have not been confirmed. Further the UN report identified what the Syrians label a “crossing point of forces between Israel and ISIS,” a point of concern UNDOF brought before the UN Security Council.’
It’s amazing they have managed to hold this phony anti-ISIS thing up as long as they have.
By shooting down a Russian fighter jet, Ankara could sunder the growing coalition against ISIS, which it has been aiding and abetting for some time.
http://www.thenation.com/article/turkey-brings-nato-to-the-precipice-of-war-with-russia/
‘Let us recap. Turkey has played a leading role in fomenting the unrest in Syria since the very beginning of the uprising against the rule of Bashar al-Assad in 2011. Turkey has aided, abetted, and funded ISIS by keeping its southern border open with Syria, allowing radical jihadists from Europe to cross back and forth from ISIS-controlled territory, thereby enabling them to return to Europe to plot and execute such attacks as were recently carried out in the French capital.’
‘Turkish commodity dealers have funded ISIS through their purchase of, by one estimate, $50 million a month in black-market oil. Indeed, reports have surfaced alleging that none other than Erdogan’s son Bilal has been a key financial benefactor of this unseemly business.’
‘Erdogan’s motives for the shoot-down are not terribly difficult to divine, and they have little to do with the alleged violation of Turkey’s sovereign airspace. As was widely reported, at the G20 summit last week in Antalya, Turkey, Putin revealed aerial surveillance and satellite imagery showing a miles-long line of oil-tanker trucks stretching from ISIS-controlled territory into Turkey.’
‘And worse, from Erdogan’s standpoint, was the decision made by French President François Hollande to bypass NATO and instead appeal to to the EU to invoke its mutual-assistance clause, all the while advocating for a coalition against ISIS that would include the Russians. This morning’s shoot-down will ensure that NATO gets in the game, which is exactly what Erdogan, as a treaty member, wants.’
With allies like this….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-25/meet-man-who-funds-isis-bilal-erdogan-son-turkeys-president
I almost was going to ask, what if ISIS itself is a conspiracy against Islam, in some twisted way. Then I remembered all wars are bankers wars. The banksters are involved, so nothing good will come from this. We allowed the elite Ivy League brains to have decades to prove their intentions lead to good things, but they really do not have enough brains to stop the unintended consequences.
I bid Putin a happy thanksgiving, as the least bad statist of all the players. I never heard him call himself a communist.
But I hate statism.
Interesting article. There’s been some speculation for a while now in various nooks and crannies of the internet regarding collaboration between Israel and the Saudis.
Do you suppose J6P is pretending to not be aware that he is manipulated by the collaboration between the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar?
Or is J6P just extremely dumb?
My assumption is that J6P loves watching TV: news, commercials, sitcoms, and all. Joe is not pretending. Joe is ignorant. I stopped. Watching cable TV a year ago. I could not handle it, knowing what I learned from other media: Glen Greenwald’s “No Place to Hide” was a turning point for me. I only read half the book and where I stopped, it got too scary for me. It was headed to the conclusion that the spy agencies are good for big business in America, and good for your stocks. Good for my large company funds. I cannot put my head around that, maybe I will break out of the “deer in the headlights” mode to come up with an investment plan totally out of large U.S. companies or in companies outside the “five eyes.”
Or is J6P just extremely dumb?
The 2008 and 2012 elections answered that question quite convincingly.
OTOH, the recent poll results that show that even among Democrats, the percentage of people that are very concerned about global warming is in the single digits, makes me think that the American public has a few brain cells left.
If they can’t even convince the D’s - well that’s really saying something!
Got Carbon Credits?
If turkey is so good, why do we only eat it once a year?
Speak for yourself.
Liberace,
Maybe you and Lola should check out different soup kitchens.
I eat turkey several times a year. But Thanksgivings lately I eat steak instead.
compared to how often we eat chicken.
Wishing you and yours a safe and Happy Thanksgiving.
Alice’s Restaurant - Original 1967 Recording - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m57gzA2JCcM - 344k -
“Kid, I want You to go and sit down on that bench that says Group W
…. NOW kid!!”
And I, I walked over to the, to the bench there, and there is, Group W’s
Where they put you if you may not be moral enough to join the army after Committing your special crime, and there was all kinds of mean nasty ugly Looking people on the bench there. Mother rapers. Father stabbers. Father Rapers! Father rapers sitting right there on the bench next to me! And They was mean and nasty and ugly and horrible crime-type guys sitting on the Bench next to me. And the meanest, ugliest, nastiest one, the meanest Father raper of them all, was coming over to me and he was mean ‘n’ ugly ‘n’ nasty ‘n’ horrible and all kind of things and he sat down next to me And said, “Kid, whad’ya get?” I said, “I didn’t get nothing, I had to pay $50 and pick up the garbage.”
I put down the Pencil, and I turned over the piece of paper, and there, there on the Other side, in the middle of the other side, away from everything else on The other side, in parentheses, capital letters, quotated, read the Following words:
(”KID, HAVE YOU REHABILITATED YOURSELF?”)
I went over to the sargent, said, “Sargeant, you got a lot a damn gall to
Ask me if I’ve rehabilitated myself, I mean, I mean, I mean that just, I’m
Sittin’ here on the bench, I mean I’m sittin here on the Group W bench
’cause you want to know if I’m moral enough join the army, burn women,
Kids, houses and villages after bein’ a litterbug.”
He looked at me and Said, “Kid, we don’t like your kind, and we’re gonna send you fingerprints Off to Washington.”
The junk bond market is collapsing. When will the carnage spread to the bond market more generally and force Yellen to raise rates?
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-junk-bond-market-is-collapsing-2/
There’s NO reason junk bonds and Treasurys can’t experience yield divergence without an increase in T-bond yields.
http://thefreethoughtproject.com/drone-pilots-bank-accounts-credit-cards-frozen-feds-exposing-murder/
Feds freeze drone pilots’ credit cards and bank accounts.
crushing.housing.losses.
Good news! Dollar up up up! Prices headed down down down!
“How Much Higher Can The U.S. Dollar Go?”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-26/how-much-higher-can-us-dollar-go
I look forward to being a burden on government revenue - to compete against its imperialism. Hope to be around in 11 years to start collecting Social Security and fully.
In the meantime I’m poised to move into longer maturity Treasuries and out of T-bills. The 2 year note yields are up 75% from one year ago. The 3 year note yields are up 29% from one year ago.
The rates are set by the market. The Fed also can set the rates if it wants, but I think it’s not going to raise the rates for a year or two. The rates are going up themselves.
By moving into higher yields, we can help tax the government’s imperialism.
Year In Review: Lyon Realtors CEO Arrested For Drugs After Release From Prison
http://www.bizjournals.com/sacramento/news/2014/10/01/disgraced-real-estate-exec-michael-lyon-apparently.html
Sacramento’s golden child. he will pay a fine and not serve time.