‘Nothing Is Immune’
The Santa Rosa Press Democrat has this update from California. “Sebastopol and Russian River area home prices are at opposite ends of Sonoma County’s housing market, yet both have seen dips in recent months. Homes are staying on the market longer as buyers seek the best deals and sellers face pressure to cut prices.”
“‘You have to take notice of it. Nothing is immune,’ said agent Barbara Young. Young has a new listing in Sebastopol priced about $20,000 below what she would have recommended a year ago.”
“‘The market is softening everywhere in the North Bay. There’s a certain degree of resistance. That is often a very healthy thing to keep markets in balance,’ said (broker) Jeff Morford in Guerneville, the heart of the Russian River.”
“So far this year, sales of existing single-family homes in the Sebastopol area are down nearly 15 percent from a year ago. Russian River home sales are down 41 percent. Countywide, sales are off 20 percent from last year’s pace, according to the monthly Press Democrat housing report provided by Coldwell Banker. The county’s inventory of homes on the market has soared to a 10-year high.”
“Sebastopol median resale prices dipped below last year’s in each of the past three months, with May’s median coming in at $734,500. The Russian River median resale price dipped two of the past three months compared with a year ago and was $397,000 in May. The countywide median was $603,000 for the month, a percent higher than a year ago but down from a peak of $619,000 last August.”
“Kathleen Carr recognized she needed to price her Sebastopol home based on what’s selling in today’s market and not what it might have been worth a year ago. Carr is confident she will get $729,000 for her 1,700-square-foot, three-bedroom home on a sunny acre surrounded by redwoods.”
“Carr’s home might have sold for $750,000 last summer, said Young, her agent. ‘I thought about selling last summer because I realized it was around the peak, but I just wasn’t ready,’ she said.”
“Both Sebastopol and Russian River remain attractive to families seeking homes and buyers from out of the area looking for vacation residences. With declining sales and leveling prices, agents and sellers are counting on the west county’s attractiveness for buyers to sustain demand.”
“‘People that have money have a wonderful area that they can come to. And it’s close enough to San Francisco and the peninsula that they can get away for the weekends,’ Young said.”
‘buyers from out of the area looking for vacation residences.’
IMO much of the second home push has been speculation. That would explain inventory hitting records all over the US. If that’s the case, second homes will eventually be viewed as a terrible investment. These secondary markets could fall harder than the primary markets they are near.
I think you could be right. Sebastopol has scenic beauty, but it lacks the jobs needed to sustain high home prices. The truth is that this is a large country, chock full of beautiful locales. Unless you are wealthy and/or spend a significant amount of time vacationing in one particular area, there is not much point in buying a vacation home.
I have an uncle who sold his home in Vail when he came to the realization that he didn’t ski enough to justify paying the taxes and upkeep every year (he owned outright). He did keep a ritzy CA beach house and relatives are welcome to use it at will. There is no better deal than having generous relations.
LOL! So does Santa Clara County. Sun, Intel, HP started their layoffs. Veritas Mextor and a few others have been acquired and will add to the unemployment lines.
Houses in general should be viewed as a “terrible investment” in fairly short order. I agree “secondary” markets will likely get hammered into the ground. Fine with me, the northeast coast is gorgeous, especially when it’s dirt cheap.
I think we all need to take pledge to stop putting “second home” and “investment” in the same sentence (although I just did it again). A single-family home is never an investment; it’s always either an expense for consumption or a speculation or both.
To me, an investment is something that cash flows from day one, with some hope of improving the cash flow over time. Even in such cases there is an element of speculation, because you are betting that the cash flow is sustainable. Thus you insure against the risks that you can insure against, and maybe hedge the ones you can’t, although this is another form of insurance.
Everything else is speculation or consumption. Nothing wrong with speculation, I do that too. But it’s important to keep the difference in mind at all times.
I disagree. I think I first articulated this last year in these forums but:
The homes you live in should not be viewed as investments. SFRs can be great investments if they are not your home (primary, vaction or otherwise) as well. The home you live can become an investment only at the expense of it becoming merely a house you sell and not a home.
I agree.
Although if you sell your primary residence for profit (and don’t lose that from a lateral purchase), that’s great. But until that happens, your primary residence is speculation at best.
90% of my ‘investments’ would be categorized speculative.
Gosh, 100% of my investments are speculative.
Right, as most stocks no longer pay dividends, those that don’t are speculations also. I don’t think there is anything wrong with speculating per se, but that is the difference between investing.
Just because they don’t pay dividends, doesn’t mean they’re speculations. The tax system is such that it is VERY expensive and wasteful to pay dividends. First, the corporation will pay taxes on its profit and then those profits are taxed again when they are distributed to shareholders. That’s not a good utilization of capital.
Instead of paying a dividend, it’s better for the corporation to plow that money into research, development, plants, offices, factories, and equipment to further grow the business. Remember, a share in a company is not just a share in its profits, but a share in it’s net assets.
Speculating is when you buy an asset because you think it’ll go up in price outside of fundamental reasons. It’s not irrational to buy stock in a company because you think and believe that it will find the cure for cancer. Say the company develops a cure for cancer, it’s share price will go to the moon. That’s not a bubble. Say 2 weeks later it’s discovered that the cure causes your arms to fall off. It would then be logical and rational to have the price be near zero. That’s not a bubble bursting.
Speculating is buying amazon.com in 2000 because you think it’ll keep going up in price even though the price wouldn’t be justified even if amazon had a monopoly in each of the markets it competes in. Speculating is buying a McMansion to flip because you think someone else will pay more for it in the future rather than thinking the fundamentals will change in the future to justify it. If you think that the fundamentals that justify an asset price will be different then the market expects, that is not speculation.
Instead of paying a dividend, it’s better for the corporation to plow that money into research, development, plants, offices, factories, and equipment to further grow the business.
Bulls**t. How is more tax efficient than paying dividents? Are you saying the owner of the company I work for is an idiot for receiving his share of the profits we make for him?
Stocks not paying dividents are baseball cards.
foobeca,
Not so (since 1986) for Australian companies distributing tax-paid dividends to Australian shareholders, they in effect distribute a tax credit with the dividend.
It has resulted in a significant demand for companies that pay a reliable dividend, and has had the side benefit of discouraging some (but by no means all :() corporate tax-elimination shenanigans.
If a company pays dividends, it is first taxed 15-38% on the federal level and 0-10%. Then when shareholders receive the dividend, they are taxed 10-38% on the federal level and 0-10% on the state level. So if a campany is taxed 38% and then the shareholder is taxed 38%, then that’s effectively a 61% tax. If there’s income taxes on the state level, it could reach up to 70%.
A corporation should never make a profit because it’s so expensive to do so. It’s better to take the profits and invest them back into the company (writeoffs) rather than paying the taxman.
Exactly - compare 5yr chart of CSCO - can’t get past $19-20/share and pays no dividend vs 5yr chart of ERF that pays 11% dividend and send checks monthly. That’s is what I want - a stock that grows and pays me as well. Heck I don’t mind paying some tax and keeping the rest of the cash and if I decide to sell some ERF for a nice profit - then I will pay some more tax.
CSCO and ERF are two completely different companies. There’s no comparison. With your logic, GM’s share price ought to be to the moon since they always pay a dividend, even when they’re losing money. That comes out of shareholders equity, well, GM might not have any of that.
Paying a dividend is nice when you are making real money, not when you are bleeding by all your orifices like GM. That living dead corporation. The thing should be taken out and shot. That’s what I think about GM and Ford, two dying monsters that will need a US dollar 50% lower, just to stay afloat and keep their market share. You have te believe in miracles.
You speculate? How so? I was tempted a few times when I saw residential properties that were potential flips (after a cash infusion), but I could never bring myself to do it because they didn’t pencil out if I got stuck in a downturn. Exactly what the F#cked Flippers are panicking over now.
We all know that’s exactly what the alligator wrestlers are faced with… and we also know who will eventually win those wrestling matches…
I speculate in stocks and commodities.
I invest in multi-family income property, but no new money is going there until the cap rates look good in a neighborhood that looks to hold its own. Right now, I see no opportunities.
I can’t imagine investing *or* speculating in SFHs, but that’s just me. If I wanted to flip something, it would be a run-down apartment building or at least a triplex, not an SFH. That would also involve speculating on gentrification or some other force to support the higher rents that would be required to make it work. Today, I see lousy cap rates even on junk buildings, so no play there either.
Just to complete this thread, here is a link to a discussion of what speculation is and is not, as contrasted with investing. If you read to the end, there is a good description of a “mug speculator” that pretty well describes the FB mentality.
http://www.travismorien.com/FAQ/intro/speculate.htm
Long read, but good. Thanks.
Might this mania signal an end, for the forseeable future, to the time when rentals could be acquired that showed positive cash flow from the start with a reasonable (traditionally 25%) down payment?
I don’t think so, because I think we are just past the dip to record low interest rates, and coming off the peak of the massive stimulation that has driven much of the speculation.
Rather, the end of this mania should take us back to a world in which positive cash flows are achievable without putting 50% or more down, as is the case now. RE is still cyclical.
If I’m wrong, I just missed the chance of a lifetime to leverage up at low rates. But I don’t think so. Ask me again in 2010
Interesting comment SM;….I also deleveraged in the past couple of years even in the face of historically low interest rates…Only time will tell if we are correct….
“Might this mania signal an end, for the forseeable future, to the time when rentals could be acquired that showed positive cash flow from the start with a reasonable (traditionally 25%) down payment?”
I don’t think so… I believe the opposite is true. The “permanent positive appreciation premium” is being replaced with the “price depreciation discount” on all forms of property. This means that sellers will need to sell for less than the actual value of the property (in terms of cap rate) because buyers will be factoring the future depreciation into the price and will refuse to pay todays or even yesterdays prices if the future value of the property will be lower. It’ll take balls to be an RE investor, but it’ll be a better time than ever to become a landlord.
Remember when a vacation home was a cheap cabin at the lake or shore that didn’t cost $750K ?
Yes!! So true. My sister and I were just talking about how we were considering an investment purchase of a little bungalow about 5 minutes from Wells Beach in Maine about 10 years ago for…….
30,000. It needed work that we could have easily done ourselves. We blew it. Hopefully we will get another chance!!
Sebastopol is a suburb of the bay area. You wouldn’t buy a place in Sebastopol as a vacation residence. It’s nice enough, I wouldn’t mind living there, but its not that kind of place. Russian River I could see getting a little weekend getaway place there, though really, it’s not until I get to Lake County that I really feel I’m outside the Bay Area metropolis.
I was just up at the La Honda Faire (straight towards the ocean on 84 from Woodside, CA) - the local real estate office had most of their posters in the front window with multiple marked down prices. Things like an original listing of $998K for a 1450 sq ft. marked down to $789K.
Still ridiculous, but showing progress.
‘I thought about selling last summer because I realized it was around the peak, but I just wasn’t ready,’ she said.”
Am I the only one who calls B.S. on this statement?
i just looked at the dq numbers again,sebastopol is at $640k,not the $729k quoted by the realtor.and the county median dq shows is $549k…the press democrat at work,again,thank you michael coit.
Thanks, could you post a link? BTW, the PD said these numbers came from Coldwell Banker.
(agents and sellers are counting on the west county’s attractiveness for buyers to sustain demand.)
counting, but they didn’t say it will. that’s a nice out.
And, let us not forget the fact that the Russian River floods about every year. Two months out of the year, Guiernville is pretty much underwater. WOW, I am now in a hurry to get up there and get me a 2nd home in which to throw away hundreds of thousands of $$$. Just look at how often in the last 10 yrs it has flooded.
“‘People that have money have a wonderful area that they can come to. And it’s close enough to San Francisco and the peninsula that they can get away for the weekends,’ Young said.”
Yes, and what’s more they can stay in a hotel or B&B and keep their money !
“People that have money..,” That’s going to be the problem right there. For X number of reasons discussed on this blog, the easy money won’t be there.
Agreed.
Weekend houses are more like buying a weekend job without pay. Would you rather spend less money and actually *relax* in a clean, well maintained place on your days off, or would you rather spend more money to keep yourself busy doing repairs and cleaning?
If you’re not rich enough to afford personal staff, you’re not rich enough to afford a weekend house at any price. It just doesn’t make sense when you can get a really really nice, well maintained place with room service in Mendicino for $200/night.
I agree.
A person doesn’t need to buy a cow if he only wants a bit of milk in his coffee.
ben,i’m a neoluddite,my carry pistol is 93 years old.i know the figures come from coldwell banker,their last report understated inventory in the county by about 1400 homes…not counting fsbo or new construction…i just google dq news,california and go to the city chart.( it’s a 1911 accurized by marble circa 1935,with a new wilson barrel for those who care)
No doubt to retain your trim figure and protect it right? My dad repaired printing presses for both Colt and S&W and took me along a few times to the factories in CT and Springfield. I doubt very many understand the nomenclature you mention.
Ah, classic design with just enough modern upgrade to maximize its potential… JMB would approve! I built/bastardized/carry a CCO (stainless Cmrd upper on a ‘parked’ Officer’s frame). A functional thing of beauty that will outlive me by a long shot. I’ve had friends ask, ‘What caliber?’. There is only 1 caliber for a 1911.
Nice: more coverage of my home county.
I knew of another seller on my old street that started planning to sell last year, but just wasn’t ready. I wasn’t ready either, but I panicked and got ready. I saw that she finally listed her home recently.
Another friend homeowner is hoping for a crash because he wants to switch neighborhoods. He thinks they will both go down about the same. He will save on commission and get a better tax basis. He doesn’t care about the lost equity. I try to convince him to rent in the interm, but he believes he cannot do that to his family. I am not sure if his kids will feel any different in a rented house vs an owned house. Perhaps the wife would feel unsecure in that situation.
I think he is doing the right thing. We sold and are renting, but moving around and dealing with landlord personalities can be tough. We’re in the process of moving again this weekend and my back is already killing me. The kids have different needs at different times. Sometimes they have good friends in the neighborhood, or if they’re small, parents might like a fence or a cul-de-sac to keep them really safe. It’s easier for singles or dinks to move around, I think. They can go to the health club for exercise, but I like my kids to have access to bike/walking trails for nature walks. We’re moving back to our old house that we sold last year - the current owner was unable to resell it this year and they had to move. It’s weird, but we did enjoy living there and not where we are now.
Good luck with your move. Very true that moving as a single is MUCH easier than with a family. As a single person, I kept things very simple and could easily move in a day. Now, with a family of 5, it takes weeks, or even months, to plan a move. Very different situations.
It really must be weird to rent your old house. Wonder if you’ll regret having sold it?
Went to Bakersfield Thurs. evening and came back last night. Boy the heat was cranking up early this year (103) and supposed to hit 112 by Sun. Had an interesting talk with a CPA that said at tax time this past year RE agents who made a ton of money in the RE market came in for taxes and were shocked to find they owed $50K or more and were in a panic because they had spent everything and now had to come up with the money.
Drove through a Lennar development today. Two streets had finished homes, about 48. ALL OF THEM WERE EMPTY. ALL BUILT ON SPEC??? ALL WAITING FOR BUYERS! I thougt these builders “learned” something from the 90’s?? I will get a pic and forward to Ben
This same scene appeared at 2 other Lennar Developments. And they were builds several 100 more homes in the same developlments. AMAZING!
*building
WHERE ?????
Bakersfield - Near Ridgeview High School
You know what, I think they could not have imagined how fast the market could slow down. I guess the term dead market is just that dead market. To be honest it is the reverse of no one could believe how high the market went up. Nice recipe for an inflated housing market. Two cups liberal lending, four cups realtor bull crap, and and a thousand tons of idiot borrowers.
I am convinced the housing bubble is a conspiracy by the homeless people to make housing more affordable after it bursts.
Speaking of a slowdown, I don’t recall this AZ Republic article dated 6/21/06 being posted yet.
“More than 100 workers at a Scottsdale construction framing company haven’t been paid in several weeks, and that has Latino community advocates concerned that some employers are taking advantage of workers.”
“The unpaid workers, most of whom have work permits and are authorized to work here…”
“But many of the workers are facing financial hardships such as evictions and credit problems, the workers’ representatives said.”
http://www.azcentral.com/community/scottsdale/articles/0621biz-nopay0621.html
The article said this about the workers: ”
Now, what does AZ do with all its unemployed “guest workers”?
Huggy;…..The secoundary effects of the slowdown are starting to appear…As far as those framers that are not being paid, its likely that the framing contractor has not been paid by the builder….Its a domino effect that can get realy nasty….Buckle up….It could be a rough ride…
“most of whom have work permits”
mmm……does this imply that some don’t?
One more thing. Some guy called Bob Brinker today and said there was 3,000 finished and empty homes in Bakersfield. Not sure where he got his numbers, but if its true - It’s much worse than I thought.
What did Bob Brinker say? He doesn’t seem very bearish on housing to me. But his guest host (a woman - can’t recall her name) was more bearish.
He was bearish. Mentioned sigificant increases in inventory and some cities at all time highs in inventory.
It does make me woder though. I went to Crisp and Cole website and noted most of the houses they had for sale were drawings. What is that all about?
What do they do with these homes? Presumeably they’d have to pay property taxes and have at least some minimal services hooked up to them and keep the properties decent.
Income averaging apropos?
Funny you should mention this. A Realtor/mortgage lender couple we know went to their accountant (without receipts, initially!!!!) and are now paying around $1,000/mo in back taxes. By the time they pay them off, it’s tax time again.
Incredible financial planning in this country. Doesn’t bode well for what’s to come.
the personal income taxes and current cash flow problems for flippers couldn’t have been scripted worse by even the greatest bears amongst us.
2005 was easy money. many re-invested that cash into illiquid assets, planning to be liquid again (and again, and again…) in time for taxes. in fact, not only are multitudes of flippers unable to pay 2005 taxes, they are negative cash flow with their current properties.
what we’ve got here is a whole new class of fb’s
Picked up a copy of the local paper yesterday and it had a map of listed open houses for the weekend. Last year this time houses were jumping off the listings at a premium, and local realtors(tm) have been saying that the market is strong here. So imagine my shock when perusing the map and finding something like 218 scheduled open houses in the area. The map looks like someone hit it with birdshot. I’m going to try to shot a pic with my camera and mail it into Ben.
Update from Menifee and Murietta in Riverside County, CA
I’m not sure where to post this…but it’s interesting info.
The agent that sold my elderly relative’s house for me in Menifee CA in early May just sent me an update. At the time we sold the house there were 300 listings in Menifee.
“The market is about the same. We have over 474 homes for sale in Menifee and not a lot of buyers. In Murrieta there are over 1000 homes for sale. Lots to pick from and fewer buyers. With interest rates going up, huge inventories and fewer buyers it has cause the market to be slower. What sellers are doing are offering larger commissions to get their homes sold. I had the biggest month in my real estate career last month.
Crispy, saw the ad for Crisp & Cole in the Bakersfield. The suits standing beside their auto’s posing…..
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=1752600
“…from $1709/mo to $3000/month. There is just no way we can keep up with that…”
Wow, did they over-buy or what? And this is only the beginning of the resets. These Texas FBs are already toast and mortgage rates have only risen slightly off the lowest bottom since the ’60s.
That “defensible cabin” in Colorado is looking better every day.
And this is in Texas were housing is comparably ‘cheap’ (compared to the median income) and 30 year fixed is still the norm. What’s going to happpen out west, where the 0ver 65% of new loans are ARMs and housing is o 10x to 15x median income?
Those 65% ARMs is why the west coast economies are in trouble. I forget which bubble blog had the charts showing San Diego property bounces between 6X and 8X median income. Well… I don’t think its stopping at 6X on the way down this time.
My girlfriend and I are locked out of a decent California home at this time… we realized we could move to Texas and buy a large lakefront home *cash*! Hmmm…
Neil
“Sebastopol and Russian River remain attractive to families seeking homes and buyers from out of the area looking for vacation residences”
Vacation residence? Outside of visiting Russian River wineries, there isn’t much to do in Sebastopol. It’s not a bad place to live, although it borders a lot of redneck areas.
“‘The market is softening everywhere in the North Bay. There’s a certain degree of resistance. That is often a very healthy thing to keep markets in balance,’ said (broker) Jeff Morford in Guerneville, the heart of the Russian River.”
Yes, it is a very healthy to be in balance, and for markets to be normalized, and for agents to go without commissions, and for brokers to go without commissions, and for sellers to go without sales, and for prices to be falling, and for dead equity not being extracted, and for builders stocks going down 70%, and for massive job cuts in the industry on the way, and for for closures on the rise.
Yes, its a healthy happy time now. Fra la la la la.
OT but I noticed on OCRenter’s site Phoenix inventory topped 50K and is still running. Spectaular really. What I would like to know is where does it finally peak out and stop? Can’t be long before lenders end up with a nice jump in their inventories… which puts even more strain on the market as it lowers comps since we know there’s a limit to how much in non-performing loans they can hold before regulators step in and say SELL!!!
Any guess? 100K? 150K? When do we see capitulation? Where does it end up?
Wish there was a way to figure out how many potential buyers are even out there. Sometimes you wonder how many of those homes are just going to sit there and deteriorate, ending up torn down in 50 years or so.
Keep those updates on Menifee, Temecula, and Murietta in Rivecoming plz. Looking to buy there when wife gains 1 of the 33 elm. teaching positions
OK, here’s mine…
If you buy in any of these locations now or in the near future, you’ll be buying in at the tippy top. Some of these areas saw 30% YOY appreciation in 2004-2005. I believe they will give everything back and eventually return to inflation adjusted 1999/2000 prices. There are loads of good rental deals in the Corona-Riverside-Murrietta-Temecula-Lake Elsinore-Canyon Lake triangle. Take care of that pretty wife (elementary school teachers are always scorching hot babes, don’t ask me why) and rent something nice for a couple of years, then swoop when the swooping gets good.
That is all.
***Keyboard warning*** OMG, WAAAAY too funny!!
Thanks to the poster who linked to the Blanche Evans’ “newspaper conspiracy” video. This is by the same person.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkyOovtbvKc&mode=related&search=
O/T again: Sorry if this was posted before, but I don’t remember seeing it.
http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/20060623_mortgagedelinq.htm
NeighborWorks Prepares For Flood Of Mortgage Delinquencies
by Broderick Perkins
“Not unlike preparing for natural disaster, representatives from a network of more than 240 community development organizations are quickly gathering to stockpile home ownership survival skills for what could be a man-made disaster spawned by the flood of riskier mortgages.”
BTW, RealtyTimes is really going after the newspapers! Seems they newspapers are forming some kind of conspiracy against Realtors. LOL!
They are also fighting tooth-and-nail to maintain their commissions and keep the flat-rate “menu plan” agencies out. Of course, they are only looking out for us lowly buyers/sellers who haven’t a clue as to what we’re doing. See, we NEED them. Gotta check out their rhetoric. (BTW, I agree that a GOOD RE agent can be tremendously helpful in certain circumstances, just that they aren’t necessary in all transactions, and can even be a hindrance at times).
It is about time lending was tightened, obviously, it should have happened a lot sooner.
Comments to the above posts: All money is green and if a lender wants to make loans, they will take anyone. Just because they might be Latino does not mean they will say “Oh, I think I will not shaft them because they are Latino”. Naive to think otherwise.
Also, you are talking about neighborhoods ‘tipping’. Then will come the calls of racism as white people flee. While some people may flee just because they are racist, that is a really just a small minority. If gangs, crime and urban nusiance (graffiti, loud rap music coming from cars, “hanging out” in groups at night, etc.) start to be prevalent, THAT is why people flee. They do not want to live around that. Who can seriously blame them? The fact is that as long as these minority groups live up to their stereotypes and generalizations, white people will flee.
BTW, I think the real tipping point where you see people leave in massive qty is when the “element” approaches 40%. Then even the holdouts and the people in denial of what is happening to their neighborhood will stay - unless they cannot get out of their situation.
Solution? Nip that in the bud asap. Town and city ordinances and local law enforcement should attack the smaller things like graffiti, noise, loitering like they do murder investigations. Almost always, this stuff shows up before full-fledged issues do. Do not flee, stand up and fight for your neighborhoods. If things are unacceptable, fight them while they are small issues.
You can run, but you cannot hide. Gangs and drugs are happening in places that were great 10-20 years ago. People ran instead of facing it head on. That said, once it is entrenched, you are too late - so leave and make sure you stay one step ahead of the deterioration.
“Also, you are talking about neighborhoods ‘tipping’. Then will come the calls of racism as white people flee. While some people may flee just because they are racist, that is a really just a small minority. If gangs, crime and urban nusiance (graffiti, loud rap music coming from cars, “hanging out” in groups at night, etc.) start to be prevalent, THAT is why people flee. They do not want to live around that. Who can seriously blame them? The fact is that as long as these minority groups live up to their stereotypes and generalizations, white people will flee.”
_____________________
You are 100% correct here. Unfortunately, until we can address the PROBLEMS in “minority” communities without being referred to as racists, nothing productive will happen.
Like Huggybear (who lived in the same community as I did, IIRC), I tried to do the “forming a Neighborhood Watch” and fix the problems in the ‘hood - thing. We had wonderful neighbors (mostly Hispanic) who were very involved, but we just couldn’t shake out the real problematic neighbors. The city has its hands tied, basically, and it can cause dangerous tensions in the ‘hood.
We ended up moving to a much nicer neighborhood because we have small children, and can’t afford the risks of fighting for our neighborhood — as much as I agree this is what’s necessary.
You can run, but you cannot hide. Gangs and drugs are happening in places that were great 10-20 years ago. People ran instead of facing it head on. That said, once it is entrenched, you are too late - so leave and make sure you stay one step ahead of the deterioration.
Eventually people will run out of places to run, and start standing up and fighting back. Unfortunately, the laws and the entire political class in this country — built on entitlement, patronage, and graft — mean the dice are completely loaded against the dwindling productive, law-abiding sector of the populace. Scumbags and social parasites form huge, well-organized voting blocs pandered to by Democrats and Republicans alike–in fact, Hilary Clinton wants to restore voting privileges to millions of convicted felons, as that would assure the Democratic Party of a permanant stranglehold on the levers of power. Those of us with young children are not going to put them at risk, or send them to deteriorating schools crammed with little welfare predators, as long as we still have the option to pack up and move to somewhere more to our liking. But eventually, when things have gotten so intolerable that even the most delusional liberals are foaming with righteous rage — not a minute too soon! — then the battle lines are going to be drawn. I really do fear for the future of this country — the real estate market is by no means the most important thing that is at risk.
M.B.A. - This is one of the reasons I left So Cal and I’m a native. As beautiful as our coastal sfr neighborhood was it was still only about 5 blocks away from a densly populated neighborhood filled with multi-family rental units. It was known as the place where the most recent “immigrants” settled. It was only about 4 city blocks square but over 4,000 people were estimated to live there and the number of small children there filled an entire elementary school (I’m not joking).
Fighting against keeping the gangs, graffiti, trash and shopping carts from spilling over into the surrounding areas becomes a full-time task. It almost has to be a crusade to stay one step ahead and when I looked around and saw I was the only person in my neighborhood painting over the graffeti, etc. I said that’s enough. Alot of Southern California is still nice but the situation I’m describing is happening more and more often and citys almost refuse to enforce code violations. Plus, I don’t want to live in a place where it’s necessary to constantly have to be on guard duty. I guess I’m not cut out for dense urban living.
When I lived in San Diego, I often heard stories from people at work of waking up in the morning and finding illegals sleeping in their backyards in places like Jamul, National City and even in Escondido.
Definitely, happened to me in Jamul at least once a month. A van stops at the side of the road and 12-20 people hop out and scatter.
I lived in Los Angeles and it is weird: you can see neighborhoods “change” before your eyes. As you say, first it starts out with little offenses: trash, graffiti, noise. Before you know it, you have prostitutes or drug dealers around. Homelessness abounds. But that is a whole different topic/issue. Quality of life issues deteriorate before your eyes- for whatever reason, it was not stopped at the first signs. I no longer live there. I find it dirty, crowded, dangerous, with appaling sights everyday bombarding, bombarding. It is too bad. I miss some things that are no longer available to me. I had eeked out my own little neighborhood where I knew the merchants and liked a lot of my neighbors. But the place changed - even in the span of as little as 5 years. I do not know the answer, but I know that if residents let the deterioration continue, before you know it, you have a skanky neighborhood. It is too bad.
It is not a race issue. I currently live in a mixed neighborhood and embrace minorites who keep their places great and have pride of ownership. Unfortunately the “American Dream” is being redefined and it does not look like Mayberry RFD.
Let’s not pin it all on minorities either. Lots of people lately seem to be very proud of the “white trash” label. Too many cars have the bumber sticker “Queen of White Trash” as if that is something to be proud of. (And just because one is grammatically incompetent and dangling things does not mean one is white trash.
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I want to live in a neighborhood where people are proud of that they have, take good care of it, watch out for their families, neighbors and pets, and behave in ways they want other people to behave around them. (Unless they are nudists
- then they just have to settle for me being different.)
Let’s face it, lots of problems in America and most are caused because people don’t respect other people. No color or religion or socio-economic status is immune. And I’d rather live next door to the Huxtables (The Cosby Show) than the Conners (Roseanne) or the Trumps (The Apprentice.) Most especially the Trumps, well him anyway. Wonder if he’ll go into BK this time around? (Oh, was that disrespectful?)