Bits Bucket for December 6, 2015
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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Irving, TX Housing Craters; Prices Plunge 12% YoY As Housing Bust Resumes
http://www.movoto.com/irving-tx/market-trends/
Can someone compare 1987/8 Texas to 2016 ?
Have banks in Dallas been Moe cautious this time?
Good question. They say they’ve learned their lesson.
But perhaps the lesson is that those at the top can get away with privatize the profits, socialize the losses.
Meanwhile, with all the angry rhetoric notice how NOT ONE politician DARES to day that maybe we should have a tax or some other policy that makes domestic production, conservation and alternative energy a better deal that imported oil? Even if it means more expensive gasoline?
The Saudis are looking to hook us in again. And then raise the price back to $100 a barrel or more. It has happened over and over. But the politicians are so afraid of the cry of “I want for me now!” that they dare not say anything.
Dependence on imported oil is bad for national security and the economy. But if the U.S. loses less oil, the climate change believers win!
https://larrylittlefield.wordpress.com/2014/10/08/update-oil-sugar-and-35-now-41-wasted-years/
NOT ONE politician DARES to day that maybe we should have a tax or some other policy that makes domestic production, conservation and alternative energy a better deal that imported oil ??
These people get it…
http://link.fortune.com/click/5667396.56025/aHR0cDovL2ZvcnR1bmUuY29tL2NoaW5hLWNsZWFuLXRlY2gtc2lsaWNvbi12YWxsZXkvP3hpZD1ubF9kYWlseQ/55d4961dbcb59ca76f05d79bB6b302454
You and your ilk are welcome to come up with whatever price fixing scams you can….. so long as it comes out of your wallet. Keep your shithooks out of mine or prepare to lose them.
NY is known for low taxes. Did the snowblower fire up this morning?
Falling prices Liberace…… Falling prices.
We’ll never see $100 (in today’s dollars) again. Cheap oil and cheap gas are here to undercut alternative energy.
Currently climate change is mostly scientific data and evidence reported from distant lands. We are not yet at the tangible, I can feel it hit me personal stage yet. When global warming starts killing people regularly around the globe, when it affects the food supply, when the security of whole nations are threatened, there will be a global call for heavy carbon taxes. Demand for oil will decrease, leaving oil assets stranded underground, just like coal is today.
And so the game being played by big oil and the Saudis today is, sell oil and gasoline cheaply to sell off oil assets before they get stranded. They know $100 oil is rocket fuel for people to buy Priuses, Nissan Leafs, and Teslas. Nope, Big Oil wants you to want that oversized SUV with a 5-liter V8 that only gets 12 mpg. They’ve got product to sell.
“When global warming starts killing people regularly around the globe, when it affects the food supply,…”
When space aliens colonize the planet and begin harvesting human entrails as a food source, we’ll all be doomed!
“Climate Change Will Lead To Global Food Shortages”
Q. What loony leftist organization wrote this?
A. General Mills. One of America’s oldest and most respected companies.
“Climate Change Will Lead To Global Food Shortages”
Here’s some price charts of various grains and oil seeds:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GRAINS&p=m1
Not much of a shortage reflected there a measured by the prices.
Just wait until rising sea levels inundate the entire California Central Valley with seawater!
Acid seawater at that.
Just wait until rising sea levels inundate the entire California Central Valley with seawater!
Indeed, here’s a map of the expected inundation:
http://www.hcn.org/blogs/goat/images/SFsealevelrisemap.png/image_preview
Note the expensive real estate underwater in the Bay Area.
Looks like Silly Valley is going to be Soggy Valley.
Radioactive Fukashima water.
Drought, rocketing bread prices, food and water shortages have all blighted parts of the Middle East. Analysts at the Centre for American Progress in Washington say a combination of food shortages and other environmental factors exacerbated the already tense politics of the region. As the Observer reports today, an as-yet unpublished US government study indicates that the world needs to prepare for much more of the same, as food prices spiral and longstanding agricultural practices are disrupted by climate change.
“We should expect much more political destabilisation of countries as it bites,” says Richard Choularton, a policy officer in the UN’s World Food Programme climate change office. “What is different now from 20 years ago is that far more people are living in places with a higher climatic risk; 650 million people now live in arid or semi-arid areas where floods and droughts and price shocks are expected to have the most impact.
“The recent crises in the Horn of Africa and Sahel may be becoming the new normal. Droughts are expected to become more frequent. Studies suggest anything up to 200 million more food-insecure people by 2050 or an additional 24 million malnourished children. In parts of Africa we already have a protracted and growing humanitarian disaster. Climate change is a creeping disaster,” he said.
History shows again and again
how nature points out the folly of man….
Go GO GODZILLLA!
When the Central Valley eventually floods, the Fear Lobby is certainly going to make an all-out effort to convince a gullible public that the only possible explanation is human-induced global warming.
Missing from this Scientific American story: Any mention of climate change or global warming.
California Megaflood: Lessons from a Forgotten Catastrophe
A 43-day storm that began in December 1861 put central and southern California underwater for up to six months, and it could happen again
By B. Lynn Ingram on January 1, 2013
Geologic evidence shows that truly massive floods, caused by rainfall alone, have occurred in California every 100 to 200 years. Such floods are likely caused by atmospheric rivers: narrow bands of water vapor about a mile above the ocean that extend for thousands of kilometers.
The atmospheric river storms featured in a January 2013 article in Scientific American that I co-wrote with Michael Dettinger, The Coming Megafloods, are responsible for most of the largest historical floods in many western states. The only megaflood to strike the American West in recent history occurred during the winter of 1861-62. California bore the brunt of the damage. This disaster turned enormous regions of the state into inland seas for months, and took thousands of human lives. The costs were devastating: one quarter of California’s economy was destroyed, forcing the state into bankruptcy.
Today, the same regions that were submerged in 1861-62 are home to California’s fastest-growing cities. Although this flood is all but forgotten, important lessons from this catastrophe can be learned. Much of the insight can be gleaned from harrowing accounts in diary entries, letters and newspaper articles, as well as the book Up and Down California in 1860-1864, written by William Brewer, who surveyed the new state’s natural resources with state geologist Josiah Whitney.
In 1861, farmers and ranchers were praying for rain after two exceptionally dry decades. In December their prayers were answered with a vengeance, as a series of monstrous Pacific storms slammed—one after another—into the West coast of North America, from Mexico to Canada. The storms produced the most violent flooding residents had ever seen, before or since.
Sixty-six inches of rain fell in Los Angeles that year, more than four times the normal annual amount, causing rivers to surge over their banks, spreading muddy water for miles across the arid landscape. Large brown lakes formed on the normally dry plains between Los Angeles and the Pacific Ocean, even covering vast areas of the Mojave Desert. In and around Anaheim, , flooding of the Santa Ana River created an inland sea four feet deep, stretching up to four miles from the river and lasting four weeks.
Residents in northern California, where most of the state’s 500,000 people lived, were contending with devastation and suffering of their own. In early December, the Sierra Nevada experienced a series of cold arctic storms that dumped 10 to 15 feet of snow, and these were soon followed by warm atmospheric rivers storms. The series of warm storms swelled the rivers in the Sierra Nevada range so that they became raging torrents, sweeping away entire communities and mining settlements in the foothills—California’s famous “Gold Country.” A January 15, 1862, report from the Nelson Point Correspondence described the scene: “On Friday last, we were visited by the most destructive and devastating flood that has ever been the lot of ‘white’ men to see in this part of the country. Feather River reached the height of 9 feet more than was ever known by the ‘oldest inhabitant,’ carrying away bridges, camps, stores, saloon, restaurant, and much real-estate.” Drowning deaths occurred every day on the Feather, Yuba and American rivers. In one tragic account, an entire settlement of Chinese miners was drowned by floods on the Yuba River.
This enormous pulse of water from the rain flowed down the slopes and across the landscape, overwhelming streams and rivers, creating a huge inland sea in California’s enormous Central Valley—a region at least 300 miles long and 20 miles wide. Water covered farmlands and towns, drowning people, horses and cattle, and washing away houses, buildings, barns, fences and bridges. The water reached depths up to 30 feet, completely submerging telegraph poles that had just been installed between San Francisco and New York, causing transportation and communications to completely break down over much of the state for a month. William Brewer wrote a series of letters to his brother on the east coast describing the surreal scenes of tragedy that he witnessed during his travels in the region that winter and spring. In a description dated January 31, 1862, Brewer wrote:
Thousands of farms are entirely under water—cattle starving and drowning. All the roads in the middle of the state are impassable; so all mails are cut off. The telegraph also does not work clear through. In the Sacramento Valley for some distance the tops of the poles are under water. The entire valley was a lake extending from the mountains on one side to the coast range hills on the other. Steamers ran back over the ranches fourteen miles from the river, carrying stock, etc, to the hills. Nearly every house and farm over this immense region is gone. America has never before seen such desolation by flood as this has been, and seldom has the Old World seen the like.
Brewer describes a great sheet of brown rippling water extending from the Coast Range to the Sierra Nevada. One-quarter of the state’s estimated 800,000 cattle drowned in the flood, marking the beginning of the end of the cattle-based ranchero society in California. One-third of the state’s property was destroyed, and one home in eight was destroyed completely or carried away by the floodwaters.
Sacramento, 100 miles up the Sacramento River from San Francisco, was (and still is) precariously located at the confluence of the Sacramento and American rivers. In 1861, the city was in many ways a hub: the young state’s sparkling new capital, an important commercial and agricultural center, and the terminus for stagecoaches, wagon trains, the pony express and riverboats from San Francisco. Although floods in Sacramento were not unknown to the residents, nothing could have prepared them for the series of deluges and massive flooding that engulfed the city that winter. The levees built to protect Sacramento from catastrophic floods crumbled under the force of the rising waters of the American River. In early January the floodwaters submerged the entire city under 10 feet of brown, debris-laden water. The water was so deep and dirty that no one dared to move about the city except by boat. The floodwaters caused immense destruction of property and loss of life.
California’s new Governor, Leland Stanford, was to be inaugurated on January 10, but the floodwaters swept through Sacramento that day, submerging the city. Citizens fled by any means possible, yet the inauguration ceremony took place at the capital building anyway, despite the mounting catastrophe. Governor Stanford was forced to travel from his mansion to the capital building by rowboat. Following the expedited ceremony, with floodwaters rising at a rate of one foot per hour, Stanford rowed back to his mansion, where he was forced to steer his boat to a second story window in order to enter his home. Conditions did not improve in the following weeks. California’s legislature, unable to function in the submerged city, finally gave up and moved to San Francisco on January 22, to wait out the floods.
Sacramento remained underwater for months. Brewer visited the city on March 9, three months after the flooding began, and described the scene:
Such a desolate scene I hope to never see again. Most of the city is still under water, and has been there for three months. A part is out of the water, that is, the streets are above water, but every low place is full—cellars and yards are full, houses and walls wet, everything uncomfortable. No description that I can write will give you any adequate conception of the discomfort and wretchedness this must give rise to. I took a boat and two boys, and we rowed about for an hour or two. Houses, stores, stables, everything, were surrounded by water. Yards were ponds enclosed by dilapidated, muddy, slimy fences; household furniture, chairs, tables, sofas, the fragments of houses, were floating in the muddy waters or lodged in nooks and corners. I saw three sofas floating in different yards. The basements of the better class of houses were half full of water, and through the windows, one could see chairs, tables, bedsteads, etc., afloat. Through the windows of a schoolhouse I saw the benches and desks afloat. Over most of the city boats are still the only way of getting around.
The new Capital is far out in the water—the Governor’s house stands as in a lake—churches, public buildings, private buildings, everything, are wet or in the water. Not a road leading from the city is passable, business is at a dead standstill, everything looks forlorn and wretched. Many houses have partially toppled over; some have been carried from their foundations, several streets (now avenues of water) are blocked up with houses that have floated in them, dead animals lie about here and there—a dreadful picture. I don’t think the city will ever rise from the shock, I don’t see how it can.
The death and destruction of this flood caused such trauma that the city of Sacramento embarked on a long-term project of raising the downtown district by 10 to 15 feet in the seven years after the flood. Governor Stanford also raised his mansion from two to three stories, leaving empty the ground floor, to avoid damage from any future flooding events.
…
Why it’s utterly hopeless to argue with global warmists:
- If nothing whatever is done to stop global warming, warmists will blame all future weather disasters on global warming.
- If anything whatever is done to stop climate change, warmists will never, ever stop taking credit for the fact that the human race hasn’t yet collectively died off.
- in either case, it would be impossible to use nonexistent data to refute the claim using evidence from the version of history which never occurred.
Why do you continue to argue then?
For the very simple fact that you non-science types demand everyone else pay for your schemes.
“Sell your horse before it dies” MT
Talking to people in the Balkens area, it is much worse up there than anyone writes about. I imagine Texas oil co’s are laying off thousands of people too.
Yes, how long are those half-finished houses and apartment complexes going to remain standing?
At some point, I see them being burnt down for fire department training or knocked down by excavators.
Should we start a pool? Ground zero: Willison, ND
Ground zero is every major city and their suburbs.
Dependence on imported oil is bad for national security and the economy.
The USA exports oil too.
The U.S. exports 10 times as much crude to its northern neighbor as it did five years ago, thanks to the American drilling boom. The Commerce Department recently approved U.S. crude swaps with Mexico and has also rewritten rules governing exports to make ultralight oil called condensate legal to sell abroad.
After the 80’s oil bust, didn’t the remaining oil companies consolidate in Houston?
My sense is that the Dallas economy is less oil-centric now than it was in the late 80’s.
Are you sure?
Dallas, TX Housing Prices Crater 25% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/north-dallas-dallas-tx/home-values/
Ben was there at the time…I am sure he will comment…
On another subject, Trumps latest bigotry;
“There is something about the man that we don’t know”
Trump lives free…rent free.
Shouldn’t you be buoying how great Hillary is?
Noting that Trump is a bigot has no implication regarding what Hillary is or isn’t. Only a partisan political retard would make this kind of logical error.
Only a partisan political retard would make this kind of logical error.
Only a retard would have this kind of reaction.
Ahh, the old ‘I know you are, but what am I?’
A schoolyard classic.
Schoolyard tactics are well suited to the intellectual attainment of the partisan hacks who regularly post here.
Anywhere people gather turns into a schoolyard. It’s an identifying characteristic of human beings.
“Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-06 09:57:40
Schoolyard tactics are well suited to the intellectual attainment of the partisan hacks who regularly post here.”
Saved.
“Saved.”
Saved.
tx 3% of jobs are oil so that clips off 1% for a 20% increase in unemployment statewade
the banks are hiding something
Scotia bank is 30% oil and the rest crappy Canadah re loans -their stock has barely budged
‘Have banks in Dallas been Moe cautious this time?’
I’ve said this to the media, I’ve said it here; oil isn’t what took down the Texas economy. It was the real estate bubble. The banks/S&Ls that failed (which was almost every single one of them) didn’t do so because of bad oil loans. It was real estate loans. The question is, does Texas have a real estate bubble?
For the Texas banks; I’m pretty sure the federal government is backing the real estate loans in the oil states. Will there be poor underwriting that is thrown back on local banks? I doubt much of it. Most loans today are done by the bigs (Wells Fargo, etc) and non-banks like Quicken. Before the 80’s there was a part of the Texas constitution that said banks had to be majority owned by Texans. When the failures started that was thrown out so the majors could “save” the failing banks. Mel Watts, this time it’s all on you!
If you work in the oil biz, get laid off and cant make your mortgage…. was that the oil that crashed it or RE?
If you scam the public on houses and housing demand collapses, is that housing or oil?
Report from 22151
Low inventory w only overpriced dregs remaining
Did everyone yank their sign for the holidays?
Zillow showing 3% increased forecast on one portable and flat on their other portal
= weird
A prediction of only a 3 percent increase means crater crash. The shark suffocates if it swims slower than 8 percent gains.
When the shark swims that slow, it can’t help but attract shark jumpers.
which central bank will raise some noise this week?
Dozens Of Global Stock Markets Are Already Crashing: “Not Seen Numbers Like These Since 2008″
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-05/dozens-global-stock-markets-are-already-crashing-not-seen-numbers-these-2008
Liquidate assets, get rid of debt as quickly as possible and hold onto every dollar you’ve got. You’ll thank us later.
Not to worry. It can’t happen here in the USA.
NPR will let you know what words are allowed to be used when discussing racial or gender issues. The word resilient is no longer allowed.
New York Times real journalists provide the following narrative:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/06/us/politics/95000-words-many-of-them-ominous-from-donald-trumps-tongue.html
See also:
All Endings Considered — How to End a Story the NPR way
“Ever wonder why NPR stories leave you feeling the way they do? Here’s a list of traits that close those stories with that signature dread.”
https://medium.com/buzzademia-now/all-endings-considered-how-to-end-a-story-the-npr-way-86f55605a6eb#.54fnkhi3i
“It’s not going to be easy: There’s a lot of anger among other Republicans against this group of about 50 or so conservatives — Peter King calling them delusional, others saying that they don’t do anything toward governing. So I think there’s going to be an effort to bring them in line, but it’s not going to be easy. Cokie Roberts, Netanyahu In D.C., DHS Funding Still Not Settled.”
Where oh where was the DHS when these shootings in California happened? Have you heard one media outlet ask that? One?
Reader comment on a New York Times article:
“I’m very interested in our government knowing who owns multiple rounds of ammunition and assault weapons. In fact, I think ammunition should be taxed as heavily as cigarettes and assault weapons should be taxed yearly. They’re exacting a huge toll from our society and those who chose to own them should take responsibility for insisting upon their easy availability. The funds from the taxes could go to observing owners’ internet activity.”
An interesting idea, worth exploring. Forget gun control: people insist on 2nd amendment rights. Instead of prohibition, tax it and track it. Allow sales of assault weapons in exchange for signing off on an open search warrant to tap your phone and e-mail. Interesting approach…
An interesting idea, worth exploring. Forget gun control: people insist on 2nd amendment rights. Instead of prohibition, tax it and track it. Allow sales of assault weapons in exchange for signing off on an open search warrant to tap your phone and e-mail. Interesting approach…
Yep and Trump is a fascist. LOL
‘tax it and track it. Allow sales of assault weapons in exchange for signing off on an open search warrant to tap your phone and e-mail’
Well it solves the “we must do SOMETHING” itch, but will accomplish nothing, like most of the knee-jerk policies. BTW, these are deer rifles with fancy handles, not assault “weapons”.
Well it solves the “we must do SOMETHING” itch, but will accomplish nothing
I’m not sure. Consider the licensing requirements to buy and store dynamite. How much dynamite abuse is there? Zero, as far as I know. I’m sure the San Berdoo terrorists would’ve liked to have dynamite but instead they had to resort to black powder pipe bombs.
What about pressure cookers, or box cutters? Anthrax! Boy this ISIS is something. And all the while they were getting arms from US allies, shipping oil to Turkey and being stitched up in Israel. But let’s spend all Sunday talking about open search warrants.
Tax it and track it. Apply that to another EGCR, explicitly guaranteed constitutional right, like freedom of speech also? How about freedom of the press or religion?
The funds from the taxes could go to observing owners’ internet activity.”
Cause that level of spying would NEVER be mis-used, would it?
“Interesting approach…”
What’s the Soros hourly rate these days?
I have an interesting idea…You and all of the other Global Fascists volunteer to go house-to-house and confiscate our firearms. We’re waiting.
Just have the current gun laws apply to swap meets and other loopholes and I am happy.
Maybe one of these days a shooter will be stopped by a armed citizen.
There is no such thing as a gun show loophole.
That is a liberal talking point.
And the shooters will never be stopped by an armed citizen when all of the shootings occur in gun-free zones.
Nobody sells guns at swap meets, moron.
We’ve all accepted that DHS is security theater. That question doesn’t even enter our minds.
Security theater. They need to get better shows and programs. Maybe they can consult Netflix.
This country needs Security Karaoke, right now, and our children are not safe until we have it!
“Unarmed” is strictly limited to describimg black men.
wapo says they were too religious
not too muslim mind you
see something say nothing or be called raciscist
Who remembers LAInvestor’s prediction that the Housing Bubble would end by 2013?
Wrong…
SHYSTER
It kind of did in 2012. There was a major trough. What we have now can be viewed as a discrete bubble.
Also from this weekends post:
‘‘It has cooled down a little bit, not a whole lot, compared to what we had in the spring when it was completely insane’ said Chuck Gillooley, a Realtor in San Carlos…’The rental market is going gangbusters – the fastest pace the country has ever seen,’ Herbert told me. ‘Unlike single-family (housing), which is still 5 (percent) to 10 percent off previous peaks, multifamily prices are above the previous peak. In New York the cap rates are at historic lows– in my mind that does have the markings of a bubble. I don’t know about supply, but in terms of valuations.’
Also don’t forget the Fed’s QE3 mortgage bond purchase program was heralded with the publication of its White Paper on housing market revitalization in January 2012. It’s going to take time for the effects of the Fed’s hair-of-the-dog housing market distortion to wear off.
This board was moving to libertarian before Donald Trump decided to market fascism. He right away said he would have Snowden executed. Now he says he wants to continue violations of your privacy.
If you have nothing to hide please give us your passwords.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/12/01/trump-restore-the-patriot-act-video/
All your dollar belong to us, for the wall.
Bill I was listening to some AM radio while driving yesterday, and during a segment interlude there was a brief “promo” spot saying that you should expect longer waits at the airport over the holidays, be more vigilant of your surroundings, et cetera.
Same social conditioning that got the PATRIOT Act passed in 2001.
Rand Paul never had a chance. Someone taller and more charismatic needs to carry his father’s message forward.
Rand Paul’s readiness to sell out is what doomed his campaign.
Like I said, his father’s message, not his own.
Sell out or don’t sell out it appears that the ceiling is just 10% for the Pauls.
Well at least the question of whether selling out works for them is settled.
To be fair, there were long waits fo holiday travel before TSA.
I am done with frequent flying. Airports are zoos. Even in August in Phoenix the terminal 4 is packed like a zoo.
I am saving up for weekend road trips by car in Cali. I might go up the coast for business travel next week. I hope. I love California road trips.
I love California road trips ??
Hwy #1….From one end to the other….Pretty amazing…
“Pretty amazing”
Trees Of Mystery
We used to travel to Monterey a lot and Yosemite a lot. Being from Fresno. Probably Fresno is the best location for a road tripper. Centrally located (if not for its air pollution, it would also have good jobs and lower crime).
looks like we need a large toll on the 101 at about Summerland.
Wtf? Hate often? You would impose such a thing just because I would drive that route?
What a creep.
First, did the Patriot Act go away?
“Well, I tend to err on the side of security, I must tell you,” explained Trump. “I’ve been there for longer than you would think. But you know when you have people that are beheading our — if you’re a Christian, and frankly for lots of other reasons — when you have the world looking at us and would like to destroy us as quickly as possible, I err on the side of security. And so that’s the way it is. That’s the way I’ve been, and some people like that frankly, and some people don’t like that.”
The problem with Trump is he doesn’t think on principle. Whatever works, or sounds like it works, or sounds good at the moment. For instance; how would listening to our phone calls have stopped anyone from being beheaded?
“I’m not just saying that you know since Paris, I’m saying for quite some time. I assume when I pick up my telephone, people are listening to my conversations anyway, if you what to know the truth,” said Trump. “It’s pretty sad commentary, but I err on the side of security.”
We have all this surveillance and the killings in Paris happened anyway. The California shootings too. He’s completely missing the point. It’s because he doesn’t have a principle and is saying what sounds good. Who knows what he would actually do? (Of course, the current office holder got in with an antiwar position and turned into someone who’s “good at killing people”).
I maintain the phenomenon of Trump is more important than the candidate. I can’t vote for him, but there are some cracks in the two party dictatorship appearing.
I maintain the phenomenon of Trump is more important than the candidate. I can’t vote for him, but there are some cracks in the two party dictatorship appearing.
Exactly. I don’t vote but I hope he goes far enough to destroy the stupid party and its evil twin together.
Maybe I just pay more attention to Trump’s fascist blurbs because of my voluntaryism. I don’t want my privacy infringed on, whether online or at home.
How many Muslim Syrian “refugees” have you “volunteered” to accept into your home?
None. I did not vote for Obama. I am not responsible for creating refugees. Voters for Obama are.
I voted for Ron Paul. Did you?
No, I just read a post a few days back where you support bringing in Syrian refugees.
They go right on SSI, Welfare, Food Stamps, Subsidized Housing, etc.
I suppose your emotional outburst stopped you from seeing I also mentioned welfare has to stop completely as the condition we open our borders. But that is not my problem.
I do have somethings to hide. I think the vast majority of us do and we still do so without initiating force or threatening force.
I have things I hide, but they aren’t very interesting. I’m kinda ‘meh’ on privacy.
This board was moving to libertarian before Donald Trump decided to market fascism.
This board has always attracted free-thinkers who reject various dogma, starting with “real estate only goes up.”
Good point. I want that healthy skepticism to prevail. You all have a better BS detector than most people, educated or not.
Lp here card carrying
Near dc everyone is a governmenterian
Did OPEC hatch a plan at their recent meeting to restore oil prices to back above $100 / bbl?
The Telegraph
Finance
Paralysed Opec pleads for allies as oil price crumbles
Brent prices tumbled almost $2 a barrel to $42.90
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
7:25PM GMT 04 Dec 2015
The cartel is no longer able to steer prices and risks going the way of the Texas Railroad Commission. The oil market has become a jungle
The Opec cartel is to continue flooding the world with crude oil despite a chronic glut and the desperate plight of its own members, demanding that Russia, Kazakhstan and other producers join forces before there can be output cuts.
Brent prices tumbled almost $2 a barrel to $42.90 as traders tried to make sense of the fractious Opec gathering in Vienna, which ended with no production target and no guidance on policy. It reeked of paralysis.
Prices are poised to test lows last seen at the depths of the financial crisis in early 2009. The shares of oil companies plummeted in London, and US shale drillers went into freefall on Wall Street.
“Lots of people said Opec was dead. Opec itself has just confirmed it,” said Jamie Webster, head of HIS Energy.
…
Unemployed people in our Obama-Fed-Goldman Sachs “recovery” don’t drive.
5% unemployment is full employment, isn’t it? LOL
95 million “out of the work force” but not unemployed. Neat statistical trick, that.
An interesting article …
“Saudi Arabia faces existential crisis after its misjudged gamble on oil”
“The Saudis took a huge gamble last November when they stopped supporting prices and opted instead to flood the market to drive out rivals, boosting output to 10.6m barrels a day (b/d) into the teeth of the downturn. Bank of America says the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is now ‘effectively dissolved.’
“If the aim was to choke the U.S. shale industry, the Saudis have misjudged badly.”
Read on …
http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/saudi-arabia-faces-existential-crisis-after-its-misjudged-gamble-on-oil
It is ironic that a decade of extraordinarily high income has turned the oil producers from deep pockets to empty pockets.
Spending oil money that hasn’t yet been pumped out of the ground will tend to do that.
Some people (most people?) just cannot stand prosperity.
The Saudis are also embroiled in a costly, mired-down military campaign against the Houthis of Yemen, a tough, warlike mountain people who are fighting with elan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2G8vLrlH6M
Are long-term bond investors toast in case the Fed doesn’t initiate liftoff at their next meeting?
“Drilling down further, the bank notes that of the $9.8 trillion in non-bank, USD dollar debt outstanding, more than a third ($3.3 trillion) is concentrated in EM. “Since high overall dollar debt can leave borrowers vulnerable to rising dollar yields and dollar appreciation, dollar debt aggregates bear watching,” Robert Neil McCauley, Patrick McGuire and Vladyslav Sushko warn. The right pane here gives you an idea of how quickly borrowers’ ability to service that debt is deteriorating.
Hence a world in which debt levels are too high, productivity growth too weak and financial risks too threatening. This is also a world in which interest rates have been extraordinarily low for exceptionally long and in which financial markets have worryingly come to depend on central banks’ every word and deed, in turn complicating the needed policy normalisation. It is unrealistic and dangerous to expect that monetary policy can cure all the global economy’s ills.
“The stock of dollar-denominated debt, which has roughly doubled since early 2009 to over $3 trillion, is still there [and] in fact, its value in domestic currency terms has grown in line with the US dollar’s appreciation, weighing on financial conditions and weakening balance sheets.”
In the end, Borio is telling the same story he’s been telling for over a year now. Namely that the myth of central banker omnipotence is just that, a myth, and given the abysmal economic backdrop, the market risks a severe snapback if and when that myth is exposed. ”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-06/bis-warns-uneasy-calm-markets-may-be-shattered-fed-hike-imperiling-33-trillion-em-de
The dollar has risen cause everyone and their brother expected the fed to start a rate hike cycle. It simply cannot happen folks.The debt needs to stay serviceable. The dollar is in a bubble. Go long commodities my friends!
The Wall Street Journal
Credit Markets
U.S. Bond Prices Rise After Biggest Selloff Since 2013
Higher yields from Thursday’s selloff seen as a buying opportunity on Friday
By Min Zeng
Updated Dec. 4, 2015 4:01 p.m. ET
The U.S. government bond market strengthened Friday after a solid U.S. jobs report, regaining some poise following the biggest one-day selloff since July 2013 in a prior session.
Investors say a bigger-than-expected gain of 211,000 new jobs last month cemented already elevated expectations over an interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve in two weeks.
Friday’s data suggested wage inflation remains subdued. This, along with indicators earlier this week showing a pullback in the manufacturing and service sectors, supports investors’ belief that the prospect of a gradual path for the Fed to tighten monetary policy over the next 12 months and keeps a lid on long-term Treasury bond yields.
“The first rate hike is a done deal but the path is going to be shallow,” said Gary Pollack, who helps oversee $12 billion as head of fixed-income trading in New York at Deutsche Bank AG’s private wealth management unit.
…
Recall 2013 was the year of the “taper tantrum.”
It’s hard to believe it’s been that long already, isn’t it??
Ben, can we take up a collection to pay for grief counseling for the Pineapples? It looks like the disillusioned masses in yet another of their beloved socialist utopias looks set to reject the corrupt, dysfunctional, collectivist status quo.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/venezuela/12035220/Venezuelas-hard-pressed-opposition-scents-victory-over-followers-of-Hugo-Chavez.html
More votes-for-entitlements future Democrats inbound.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-other-migrant-crisis-cubans-are-streaming-north-in-large-numbers/2015/12/05/3160772e-992f-11e5-aca6-1ae3be6f06d2_story.html
I think the cubans are majority republican voters.
Shhh! It’s the apocalypse I tell you!
Tinder users, beware….
http://www.businessinsider.com/prevalance-of-this-ancient-std-increased-in-every-region-of-the-us-last-year-2015-12
LOLZ that one of the HBB’s resident progressives was actually dropping some TradCon shaming here the other day. That you need to “man up” and marry these diseased whores and be their beta wallet.
You’re not referring to me I hope? I was suggesting that the beta wallets marry the 35+ spinsters with the cats and the boxed wine. Those ladies are not likely to ex-hos with a needy brood.
That site tried to download an ITD onto my computer.
how come we are in this boom and bust cycle with asset prices?
From the weekend post:
‘Portland surpassed its bubble-era price high in August, according to S&P/Case-Shiller, and prices in September were 10% higher than a year ago. That’s hardest for the most vulnerable buyers, Rogers said, especially first-timers, and even small rate rises will make homeownership that much harder for those who are already stretching. ‘The more purchasing power we take away from people who don’t have it, the harder it’s going to be..’
‘purchasing power we take away from people who don’t have it’
‘purchasing power we take away from people who don’t have it’
My favorite customers.
I guess this new mortgage product allows folks who are living in the home to apply their income towards the buyers mortgage application.
I feel the desperation for buyers setting in again.
We need to get back to sound money badly.
Have you paid off your HELOCs? Better do that before you ask for “sound money”.
I might pull more equity for xmas gifts.
HELOC 4 XBOX!
Can you get your grandma released from the nursing home and wheel her in to your home in order to boost your qualifying income level on a mortgage application? I smell all kinds of new real estate fraud schemes that are going to go into play with the redefinition of household income.
I think you only need to say that grandma will live with you, not actually carry her in on a board.
Because of greed. Most people become poor because of greed though.
Ironically, your wealth compounds when you use investing strategies that avoid get rich quick schemes. Such a strategy includes buying assets the peanut gallery hates and avoiding assets they love.
A good test would be a survey of your colleagues over a few happy hour beers. Real Estate, stocks, precious metals, Bitcoin, savings bonds, ten year notes, t bills. What to load up on and what to never buy, what to sell, what to dump.
Could some people just carpet bomb this canadian idiot?
Ted Cruz vows to ‘utterly destroy ISIS’ and ‘carpet bomb’ terrorists
Ka-CHING!
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/12/06/defense-contractors-cite-benefits-of-escalating-conflicts-in-the-middle-east/
Remember his wife’s a Goldman Sachs director and it all makes sense!
Yep. Cui bono?
He hasn’t figured out that bombing Islamic countries creates more terrorist recruits, not less.
Who’s that loser of a president again? Who?
George. W. Bush.
Barrack Hussein Obama
Yep…He lit the fire…But remember…He is a evangelical…Its all about the rapture for him…
Who kicked the beehive?
He hasn’t figured out that bombing Islamic countries creates more terrorist recruits, not less.
Or maybe he has figured that out, but also has figured out that more terrorist recruits is good for business…
Pamela Geller is a loon and an instigator, but when it comes to the First Amendment, she has a point.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/12/05/pamela-geller-loretta-lynch-wants-ban-violent-talk-ban-quran/
I don’t think she would have the same thoughts if people were criticizing isreal and zionsim in same fervor.
It’s all nonsense, of course. The rant about the Koran shows that she’s just another loser collectivist.
Conservatives for Energy Freedom
Debbie Dooley is a Tea Party activist fighting for solar power in Florida, challenging big government and big utilities. “…she finds it ironic that much of the criticism comes from rightwing groups who shared her conservative beliefs, including the Koch brothers-funded American Legislative Exchange Council, but which take an opposite stance on clean energy.”
“True conservatives champion free-market choice, not government-created monopolies that stifle competition.” she said. “Trying to protect monopolies from competition is not free market. You should be bound by your principles and develop your position on issues based on your principles, not who your financial donors are.”
Solar power, whether from the right or the left, is good power.
Nope. It’s hippy rainbow power, and all those damn hippies want to do with it is grow dope so they can get high and sit around all day giggling.
Nope. It’s hippy rainbow power ??
This country is making massive bets that your wrong…
http://link.fortune.com/click/5667396.56025/aHR0cDovL2ZvcnR1bmUuY29tL2NoaW5hLWNsZWFuLXRlY2gtc2lsaWNvbi12YWxsZXkvP3hpZD1ubF9kYWlseQ/55d4961dbcb59ca76f05d79bB6b302454
This is also why you need to keep dollar cost averaging into emerging markets. 5% of my net worth in them. Invest in people like Mr. Wu.
On a recent Sunday evening, dressed in jeans, an untucked red-and-white checked shirt, and a gold Patek Philippe watch, Wu, a 47-year-old venture capitalist, is attacking dinner in much the same way he attacks whole industries these days: He sits quietly in a corner, snaps up a range of options, and gorges himself.”
who writes this crap ? Silicon valley is getting too Hollywood IMO
The entire SiliConJob Valley narrative is a hollywood creation.
LOL AR. There’s an old guy down the street who always has the farthest right candidate lawn signs during elections. Workers have been on his roof installing solar panels. A sign of a successful revolution is when people participate even when they don’t champion it.
What does alternative energy have to do with politics?
My dad was far right except he hated war, and he and my mom used to subscribe to Mother Earth magazine. He was interested in alternative energy and they had an organic garden.
Alternative energy = greenie global warming scammers, if you’re far enough down the rabbit hole.
Alternative energy = greenie global warming scammers ??
Chinese don’t think so and they are seeking better alternatives not just the current technology…And if they can get scale with it watch out…You think the energy sector has problems now….Read the link…
“You cannot have caviar every day. You have to eat chicken wings.”
USA drops bombs on rocks, China buys the USA. Who is smarter?
+1 for science and being a fiscal conservative like me.
tons of my friends are leasing solar, saving about 20-25% a mo, no upfront cost.
“a
fiscal conservativeLiberace like me.”Lucky you! Your tons of friends are not going anywhere soon.
Leased rooftop solar panels will be an interesting footnote to the housing bubble trail of tears story. You can save a few dollars a month with the scheme, and pretty much forget about selling your house until you pay off the lease.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-06-23/rooftop-solar-leases-scaring-buyers-when-homeowners-sell
“+1 for science and being a fiscal conservative like me.”
Being a fiscal conservative, what did you think of the Solyndra deal?
Solyndra Scandal | Full Coverage of Failed Solar Startup - The …
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/specialreports/solyndra-scandal - Similar pages
Full coverage of Solyndra, the California-based solar company that went bankrupt after receiving $535 million in federal loan guarantees from the Obama …
Here is one for the no sh#t Sherlock column from that Wapo link.
Gore is successful green-tech investor
Carol D. Leonnig OCT 10, 2012
Al Gore has become perhaps a crusader on climate change and a successful green-tech investor.
Follow the money
How are that solar powered airliner working out for you Lola?
“fighting for solar power in Florida”
Actually Pineapple, it is a fight over who gets to suck at the government teat. It’s not about “good power”, it’s about good feed-in tariffs, and who is eligible to rake them in.
Always remember that solar power has a significantly larger carbon footprint than conventional power.
Solar power, whether from the right or the left, is good power.
I’m all for solar power, as long as I’m not forced to involuntarily subsidize it.
We’re forced to subsidize oil. I don’t see a difference there.
Huge difference. How are you paying these supposed hydrocarbon subsidies? How expensive is gas per gallon right now? So why are you complaining?
But if your electricity rates double or triple in order to pay for your neighbor’s solar system, you don’t see a difference?
A trillion here or there, a few hundred thousand dead, spiraling war and violence, millions of refugees… for ‘cheap’ oil.
We all bear the cost.
Might you consider using less of this blood energy?
Might we stick to the point… comparing oil and solar subsides?
We might. If solar takes twice as much oil to put in place as just using oil then you are subsidizing double if you want to maintain the same lifestyle. Except that the stream goes once again through the government so the multiplier is larger. Is that to the point? I would like it if I had to subsidize your lifestyle less either way.
“If solar takes twice as much oil to put in place as just using oil then you are subsidizing double if you want to maintain the same lifestyle.”
If? Well maybe. Is that really true?
It’s true.
MB’s endorsement puts it squarely in the made up bullshit column. Do you have a link, Sky? Maybe some clarification of what that broken sentence is supposed to mean?
It’s reality my friend.
Or are you another hapless soul that believes in the perpetual motion machine?
ObamaAmerica: “The “Real Stuff” Economy Is Falling Apart”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-05/real-stuff-economy-falling-apart
Stuck box sales down and car sales up in the OC
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/sales-694903-percent-car.html
must be folks pulling equity. It’s nice to get free money cause your house goes up in value.
When will the subprime auto loan bubble come to grief?
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/12/06/what-happens-when-the-auto-loan-boom-blows-up/
bailouts? peoples cars paid off cause they were duped?
I’m out
I can turn a wrench.
These days people have to buy new cars or lease. Anything built in the last 15 yrs requires the dealer to plug it in to diagnose it. why buy a 2006 for $9k that might need a $4000 transmission soon? or a $2500 ECM? $900 sensor?
Lease for under $200! Or drive a 1971!
Subprime auto Liberace. Subprime auto.
OBD 2 occurred in 1996. This allows u to plug into the cars on board computer system and check codes etc.
This is so simple a caveman could do it. The automotive industry lobbied to pass laws in CA so the parts stores couldn’t help u check your codes.
I bought a code reader years ago for 40 bucks. It has saved me thousands.
Problem is most people dont know how to turn a wrench. they look down at people who actually work.
The cheap code readers only give you the OBDII emissions codes. Any manufacturer-specific codes in other modules (airbag, ABS, BCM, etc) you still need the $10K dealer-only scantool for.
“Last Gasps Of A Dying Bull Market (And Economy)”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-06/why-fred-hickey-these-are-last-gasps-dying-bull-market-and-economy
“the U.S. Agriculture Department forecast that U.S. farm incomes will plummet 38% this year…”
There will be plenty of farmers wishing they had followed their grandfather’s advice and stayed out of debt.
Flower Mound, TX Housing Craters; Prices Plunge 7% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/flower-mound-tx/market-trends/
Americas
The US is expected to grow by 120 million people by 2050. Government scientists expect more incidents of extreme heat, severe drought, and heavy rains to affect food production. The warming is expected to continue without undue problems for 30 years but beyond 2050 the effects could be dramatic with staple crops hit.
According to the latest government report: “The rising incidence of weather extremes will have increasingly negative impacts on crop and livestock productivity, because critical thresholds are already being exceeded.” Many agricultural regions of the US will experience declines.
California’s central valley will be hard hit with sunflowers, wheat, tomato, rice, cotton and maize expected to lose 10-30% of their yields, especially beyond 2050. Fruit and nut crops which depend on “winter chilling” days may have to relocate. Animals exposed to many hot nights are increasingly stressed. Many vegetable crops will be hit when temperatures rise only a few degrees above normal.
In the meantime population growth continues to crater, abundant energy continues to be ever more affordable and housing demand continues collapsing to 20 year lows.
Government scientists expect more incidents of extreme heat, severe drought, and heavy rains to affect food production. ”
Fear then dependence that’s how they do it
take this bs somehwere else please. Housing?
“take this bs somehwere else please.”
I think it was in the eighties and I know It was about a shark but I can’t remember who it was that said…
Swim on sucka, jagged @ss tooth, gimmie a cigarette.
Trump
Trump…. A superb statesman with a squad of sexy strumpets.
I’m a techie living the dream
Billy Paul - Am I Black Enough For You:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eX6k5tRzDuU
Parliament - What Comes Funky:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pw2FcLdFoiI
Clarence Carter - The Feeling Is Right:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ddwf2OkjqgQ
Wilson Pickett w/ Duane Allman - Hey Jude:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0y8Q2PATVyI
Otis Redding - I Can’t Turn You Loose:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WBuVoy0XGY
Sly & the Family Stone - Runnin’ Away:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUGGVQ9glwU
Whodini - The Freaks Come Out At Night:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_zDEEQoHOw
Curtis Mayfield & the Impressions - This Is My Country:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_esbRoOeR0
which bubble pops first:
dollar
real estate
bond
stocks
student loans
auto loans
Coke pulls Mexican after outcry.
http://adage.com/article/global-marketing/coke-pulls-mexican-ad-called-offensive-indigenous-people/301574/
Ad, Coke pulls Mexican ad after outcry.
“Spot Attacked for Fueling ‘White Savior’ Complex”
Obama is about to reassure you.
A day at the beach - A day at The Wedge
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EidGiKLk1QM
Eye witness to San Bernardino mass shooting: Three tall white men did it.
https://www.intellihub.com/eyewitness-terror-attack-three-tall-white-men/
There’s something patently weird about the notion that it was a husband-wife commando team that did the mass shooting. Has any woman ever previously been involved in a similar incident, anywhere? And if the guy worked at the place where the attack occurred, where and when did he and his wife find the time and opportunity to get the commando training and to build up the arsenal needed to perpetrate the attack?
Things don’t add up. I looked at that woman’s (eyewitness) Facebook site and messages are two days old. She says nothing more except she is fine. All sorts of well wishers.
It is confusing. Could she be describing SWAT team who were getting at the shooters? But she said one of those three opened the door to building three. All were in black and the first one had a hat. She could not identify his features. Then later she said she was certain there were three and they appeared white, tall, athletic. In black. I thought the married couple were in camo.
I found the YouTube video. I wonder how much longer that will be allowed to be up? I wonder when that lady will get paid off to shut up?
Note that a number of MSM articles spontaneously appeared to explain how many conspiracy theories ALWAYS emerge in the aftermath of a mass shooting. Any alternative explanation to the official MSM narrative was thereby summarily dismissed.
I personally don’t recall seeing either a bunch of newly hatched conspiracy theories or any articles to preemptively dismiss any but the official MSM narrative in the immediate aftermath of any of the other myriad recent mass shootings.
Ees KGB?
A failure to accept your officially scripted MSM narrative is a sign of mental health issues.
It turns out that anyone who uses inductive reasoning to compare what real journalists write to extant evidence may be exhibiting the telltale signs of insanity.