The Housing Bubble

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SERFDOM 101:

Obtain mortgage

Well after something has went up 100% I dont think a 5% correction is that bad. That is expected my friend.

Are u n the game?

If you aren’t in the casino u can never win. Your first step is getting in the game. Your odds of success increase dramatically after the first step.

Region VIII = CRATER

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2015/12/09/housing-prices-rising-too-fast-in-denver-bubble-is.html

And not a buyer in sight Poet.

why do renters get no respect?

Respect? Cash Poet. Big piles o’ cash.

^^^
My six figure bank account sure gives me a lot of self-respect.

Last Sunday was a beautiful sunny 80 degree day in LA.

I was at brunch at an outdoor cafe enjoying mimosas.

My loan owner friend down the street was sanding and painting doors.

He was frowny face.

Wait, you want to crowd out defense spending, when your career was funded by defense spending?

And since when has defense spending been “crowded out?” If Congress runs out of money for defense spending, they’ll just borrow the money and run a deficit. Bush didn’t even write it down.

And if someone does tell Congress to stop borrowing so much, they tend to crowd out everything else except defense spending, stuff like food stamps and medicaid and education… … and privatizing Medicare with vouchers (thank you Paul Ryan)…or raising YOUR Social Security age so you would collect less.

We have to build up Defense to take on the challenge of an ever growing Chinese military. If we have to sell more bonds to do that, we can sell more to the Chinese; no, what??

You are delusional oxide. You still claim I work in defense. I been in commercial since 2013.

I used to think defense spending was needed but discovered what Ron Paul wrote and I also turned against George W Bush. It took awhile.

Our “defense” would cost a LOT less if we took the “offense” out of it.

Don’t BS me, Bill. I specifically did NOT claim that you “still” worked in defense. I said that your career “was” funded by defense spending.

I know how to use past tense.

Back in 2005-2006 or even later, you were bragging that you were 47, lived with your sister, had x-number of $100K in the bank/precious, and could retire whenever you felt like it. In other words, you had already had a career and made your pile — by the grace of defense spending — long before you went commercial.

After 20+ years of sucking off the government teat, 2 years of private sector does not give absolve you of belittling that same government.

You are delusional oxide. You still claim I work in defense. I been in commercial since 2013.

Oxide spoke in past tense (”was funded”), and Oxide has a point. The nest egg you’re so proud of was feathered with DoD $. You had no moral issues creating weapons to kill people as long as you made a buck. I don’t recall you ever repenting of that, and I suspect you believe that you don’t need to do so.

I been in commercial since 2013.

A self-justifying excusatory mindset that boggles the mind.

+1 WPA

Hey, give the guy a break. He hasn’t helped design a death machine in over two years.

(rattles hippy beads)

It’s a Pineapple Pile On! Mind if I join in?

Reformed Death Star Designers have their own kind of obnoxiousness.

Along the same lines, I dated a gal once who told me she’d been a Virgin for over two years.

Seems like we never really got any real liftoff and we are headed back into a recession again.

Is inflating asset prices really a recovery? That’s what it seems like. Create a bubble and then have taxpayers mop up the carnage after the collapse and then start over again?

There is a lot of fluff in stock prices thats for sure.

Most of the good jobs created over past 8 years were in energy and now opec is hell bent on selling at any price cause that is all they have.

There’ll probably be a recession sometime in the 25 years. It’s reasonable to say that, anytime that we’re not in a recession, that we’re heading towards one. He not busy being born is busy dying.

Candidly, I don’t think we are headed for a recession yet. While asset prices are high, the level of economic activity seems to be modest (ie. not to overheating yet). Leverage levels for some parts of the economy is going to get people in trouble (oil and gas, and maybe private equity), but household didn’t get themselves back into trouble yet (the Fed’s measures of household debt service are actually pretty good).

Household formation is expected to be strong in 2016…and that’s a big driver of growth.

“Expected”? lol@rentalfraud

“Household Formation Is Cratering”

http://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/08/21/2013/household-formation-cratering

Household formation is expected to be strong in 2016…and that’s a big driver of growth.

Didn’t they say the same thing last year?

Marriage rates are at all time lows.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_household_formation

Household formation in 2015 was actually pretty good.

“pretty good”

less than 50% of the long term trend.

Over 1.5MM households per year is less than 50% of the long-term trend?

Then why haven’t we ever built more than 3MM housing units per year if 3MM new households each year is the long term average?

With 25 million excess empty and defaulted houses in the US(4.4 million of which are in CA), why would anyone build more houses?

And falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels accelerating the economy.

Let the prices fall Poet. Let the prices fall.

how many years have you been wrong about home prices now?

Hoarding cash has cost u a lot of cash! lmfao

Remember Poet……. Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices. Nothing.

Ventura, CA Housing Prices Crater 22%

http://www.movoto.com/ventura-ca/market-trends/

median $/sq ft went up 15% yoy, seems bullish to me.

It is the falling transaction price that is important here. $/sq ft will fall as demand plummets and transaction prices continue to crater.

With 47% of ‘Muricans on the government teat and 95% demonstrably stupid, there was never any question that Hillary would be our next president. Still, I love how Trump threw a wrench into the works, even though I don’t agree with a lot of what he’s said.

In a contest between an establishment republican and Hillary Clinton, America loses no matter who wins.

“Jimmy Carter is Hitler.” Aren’t you cute?

On one hand, we have Carter, who just bravely conquered cancer, and has been selflessly dedicating his life to humanitarian causes. A man of integrity who quietly lives up to his beliefs with work and his own hands.

On the other, we have you, a sniveling coward who hides behind a tasteless and immature username.

Jimmy Carter is 1,000x the man you are.

Jimmy Carter was the worst president ever until George W Bush came along.

Awesome!

I’m not sure if you’re joking or serious on this one. Either way, that’s just too funny right there.

there are only so many white, 62 yr old truck drivers…

They want to stir the pot, even if taxes go way up to pay for it.

“Crickets, as usual. Pushing the new angry white male talking point. How about issue voters rather than skin color voters. You know, like MLK wanted. Here’s some groups for you though if that’s all you can think about:”

+1 - Yup. Also, people who don’t think Caitlyn Jenner is courageous.

Ok. Thanks.

My wife and I have two traditional IRAs with $0 balances, two Roth IRAs (with much larger balances), a Roth 401k (with company match).

The company match is non-taxable, but you can convert that to Roth as well (by paying the tax on what you convert on the year of the transfer).

As of right now, we have converted all of our retirement accounts to Roth. Our contributions to a Traditional IRA would be taxable money anyway, so each year we contribute to the Traditional IRA, and then convert shortly thereafter.

It’s completely screwed up, but as long as the conversion is legal, we’re taking advantage. Eventually, I suspect that backdoor will be closed, but not until we have walked all of our retirement assets to date through that door. The tax bills were painful…but it will be awfully nice to pull out the dividends tax free later, and NOT be required to pull out minimum distributions.

Yeah I have nearly half and half, traditional to Roth. I stopped traditional 401k in 2013 and now do a Roth 401k. Made the big Roth conversion in 2010 where you could divide the tax over two years. That was dumb luck, since the stock prices were relatively low.

I’ll be able to legally take distributions without penalty in 3 years.

If you contribute to a deductible IRA, that amount you contribute is pre-tax. So if you convert any of that amount to a Roth, it is taxable. I cannot deduct for several reasons: High income and I already have a 401k plan at work.

I want to stress the word “nondeductible” in my posts above (as my alter ego Bill, Just south of Irvine)

“Fill your deductible IRA or 401K to the limit before considering Roth, I think.”

It all depends on your expected tax rate in retirement.

If you expect your tax rate to be low, then I think you are right.

However, if you expect your tax rate to be just as high in the future as now, better to pay your tax now. On $5,000 you will pay $2,000-$2,500 now. It effectively allows you to invest $2,000-$2,500 MORE than you would otherwise and reap tax-free gains on that $2,000 to $2,500 for as long as you are invested.

Most of us are not going to have a 6 figure payout per year from our retirement savings.

If you are 25 years old today, and you start investing in your IRA to the greatest extent possible, and that investment grows by 7% per year, and there is 2% inflation (increasing how much you can contribute over time, but decreasing your purchasing power), you will have $2.1MM in your retirement account at age 70. 1% greater in return (from 7% to 8%) is another $700k.

There are lots of stocks that even in today’s low rate environment pay a 5% dividend…there is your 6 figure income. However, factoring in that 2% inflation, your income on your savings would be the equivalent to about $44k per year in today’s dollars. Good, not great, but you’re paying taxes.

If you have a wife who also works and saves, that’s a total of $4.2MM.

Now you are doing pretty well, and the tax bite is larger.

If either of you also have a 401k that you max out (today’s limit is 18,000 per year), but you only work until age 60, and then live off the return on that money until 70, you will have another $3.3MM.

Add in a company match?

You are now going to Europe frequently, and yes, you are paying taxes.

And that excludes what anyone might save outside of their retirement accounts, or Social Security.

And before you say that’s unrealistic, I have never had a 401k (so my IRA isn’t juiced by 401k rollovers), but have diligently saved in an IRA. My IRA balance handily exceeds what my model shows I should have at this point on my way to that $2.1MM.

We need to stop with the “no one can make very much from their retirement savings” rhetoric–because with diligent saving, a large number of us (especially most college graduates) should be able to do just fine.

RentalFraud,

With the median HH income of $44k/yr and prices that are rigged and fixed at a grossly inflated level, nobody is maxing out a 401k.

You’re deluded.

Yeah, lol. If you’re 25 or 35 with a wifey, most are maxed out on credit. The big house has barely any furniture and there’s sprogs on the way. By the time they are on the carpet, you’re cashing in the 401K, less tax and penalty but thanks for the match, to buy the van to do the soccer mom thing. By the time one wakes up from this donkey mill, there will be no $2million.

Yet Starbucks has revenue of $5B per year selling overpriced $4 Lattes, 1/3 of Americans have $400 iPhones so they can play Candy Crush and spend real $ on digital feed for their digital animals on their digital farm while camping out for 12 days to see a movie that they will spend another $30 on when it comes out with extended scenes in 8 months, hoping to not throw up their $6 burrito (after getting poisoned at Chipotle) on the girl in front of them in line who is standing on a $500 PhunkeeDuck because she doesn’t want to wear out her $150 LeBron James Shoes, so when she pays $200 to see the Kobe vs. LeBron final game, she might impress the King enough with her shiny kicks that he’ll sign her fake t*ts in magic marker.

There is plenty of frivolous spending in our $17T economy…not nearly enough savings.

You’re one of the biggest bullshitters on the planet my friend.

My 2 cents worth: when I was in my early 20s average starting salaries for engineers right out of school were around $20,000. We were told to expect lifetime income of $500,000. I guess factored into inflation that would be in the $millions over 35 years.

I started my career at 26 (I was a perpetual student until my dad got upset) with only a savings of $4,000. I did not start tax deferred investing until I was 29. And I maxed out all my tax deferred investing from the start. In the mid 90s I started investing in IRAs and maxed out. I have dollar cost averaged for 26 years now. Anyone in that time period could have done better than me. Anyone my age could have invested 7 years more than me and probably have saved double what I saved.

My tax deferred plans amount to just short of $1,000,000 (they surpassed a million for a few weeks in the summer).

Rental is right. Anyone in their early 20s could do much better than me. Engineers start at $70,000 or so these days. 401k contributions were limited to maybe $8,000 annually when I started. IRAs were limited to $2,000 annually into the mid 90s and now are at $5,000.

Don’t forget all the folks paying over 50% of their monthly income on housing. There is a sizable swath of U.S. households which has nothing left to save after paying the bills.

Bill, I’m a recent college grad working in engineering, and I don’t know anybody who is making less than $100K.

Rental - yes I do move the entire amount. Not sure if what I wrote seemed to suggest I only moved the gain to the Roth.

I would move the entire $5,200 to the Roth at conversion time.

Yeah, you said that you moved $200 to the Roth, and the rest to your 401k–that seemed goofy to me.

So, why do you wait to convert and pay tax on the $200? Just because you like to average into the market over the year?

I also prescribe to averaging into the market, but I don’t do so on a monthly basis, but average on a yearly basis, and avoid paying tax on the gain…

Seems like the benefit from averaging into the market might be negated by the tax you pay on any such gains upon conversion.

it is just a personal preference to DCA. Because when I started in my own IRA I first contributed all at once in January and then the market took a big dive sometime during the year and I was down by the end of the year.

The expenses are low enough in the fund that I can do it.

I have a managed fund (non-retirement) with a high expense ratio (0.6 or 0.7) and outside of Vanguard. I pay steep fees. So in that case I buy a set amount once a year. That is after all distributions. Final distribution is usually December 27.

I guess that the guy who shot up the clinic in Colorado Springs would say the same thing about Christianity. He’s a good Christian who acted to save the lives if innocent babies. The other 99.99999% of American Christians who never engage in such violence are bad Christians.

Exactly.

Democrats and progressives have one answer to all problems. Raise taxes and ban something.

Like ban all Muslims?

Only to a liberal.

Temorarily stopping muslim immigration until we can figure out which ones will go jihad and kill Americans…

Is equal to a ban on muslims.

Keep playing the meme.

Temorarily stopping muslim immigration until we can figure out which ones will go jihad and kill Americans…

Right. “Temorarily” lol

Repubs have turned fascist. Face reality.

SnowFlake,

Do you think he’ll continue O’s job?

I’ve read that every single president since the end of WW2 has been guilty of war crimes. The least bad was probably Carter, though he still supplied weapons to thuggish governments around the world. It seems unlikely that Trump would be more peaceful than Carter.

Trump to Obama: “You’re fired!”

Obama to Trump: “It doesn’t work that way. I leave office on 1/20/2017, when my term ends.”

Trump’s gonna kick the killing up a notch, bomb the sh!t out of them, start torturing again, the whole nine yards.

“It’s about security now. We’re gonna have to do things we never imagined before.”

You couldn’t care less about the killing Lola.

couldn’t care less about the killing.

Sounds like you’re the one who’s suddenly forgotten where he left his high horse. Supporting someone who tells us in advance he’ll bring back torture, increase bombing greatly.

Guess all your bluster against such things was really just whitewash.

“You couldn’t care less…”

Exactly.

you.couldn’t.care.less.

Has Romney’s famous “47%” grown to “50% plus one” yet?

We’re here to poke you and yours in the eye with a sharp stick. Don’t let the door hit you on the @ss on the way out!

Has Romney’s famous “47%” grown to “50% plus one” yet?

I read that it actually declined to somewhere near 40%. Of course, the large number of baby boomers retiring every year should cause it to increase.

Don’t let the door hit you on the @ss on the way out!

It won’t. I’m sure Hillary will hold the door open for him on her way in.

Everybody Lola.

∆bingo

Always vote for the one who terrifies you.

People want a show, they are bored, Trump will give them the show, who cares what it cost.

Just watching the wall being built will be so exciting for those with an internet connection and who shovel snow 4 mos a yr.

My leftist Facebook friends are now in this frenzy about banning anyone they find that has “liked” Trump.

I think you’re FOS. None of my “leftist” friends on FB care that much to ban any friends who like Trump.

They’re obviously terrified -

Disgusted, not “terrified”. Why would any Dem be terrified that the Repubs are most likely going to lose 6 out of the last 7 popular votes for POTUS?

you fascist little weenies…

Trump is the out-of-shape pot-bellied fascist who’s destroying the Repubs. I saw this coming.

I guess that’s on great thing about Facebook In 2015 Fascism takes the form of unfriending people. If Facebook was around 80 years ago, Hitler could’ve skipped the wars and the death camps and just attacked his enemies on FB.

fascist

Not in any way we can see does he fit the definition.

O however has a track record of imprisoning dissenters, which does fit the definition. Kind of ironic.

fascist…Not in any way we can see does (Trump) fit the definition.

“We”? You’re so blinded by bias you can’t even admit the truth to yourself.

Trump is a racist proto-fascist. Don’t run from it. It’s your Party (and you can cry if you want to).

Trump isn’t operating as an approved agent of my unrecognizable Republican Party. That seems pretty clear even for someone like me who avoids the TV dramascape.

What I learn here on the HBB is that socialists first accuse of something without basis and then condemn based on the accusation. It’s an old theme.

So, step up. Is there a basis for your accusation, or is it one of the Pineapple predictions of what someone is going to morph into in their imagination?

I think he is a run o the mill doofus who is pissed off and has enough money to act out. He couldn’t exactly run as a socialist against Hillary could he?

If you don’t have time to check the party line for a response I totally understand.

Trump isn’t operating as an approved agent of my unrecognizable Republican Party.

Oh yes, Trump is operating as the approved agent of your whackjob Party. You Repubs made him and you Repubs own him. He’s yours.

What did you expect? Something different? I saw this coming years ago. I’ve spoke of the Repubs devolution into hate and division for years.

And it’s a sight to see.

So, you’ve got nothing but hate. It has been this way for years. Nothing but bile. So much for a conversation.

Blue Skye out.

nothing but hate.

The truth holds no hate.

Time to head back to the alley refrigerator box Lola.

Trump shows you can’t just label someone a racist or sexist and shut them up. Political speech is the most highly protected of all constitutional rights. Leftist fascists want to shut everyone up, especially on immigration.

2B -
Yep - that in a short concised comment is it.

Leftists would let the city burn down to the ground as long as they could rule over the ashes.

No, it could be much better what most people have now. Medicare, which is probably the most popular institution in American life, could be extended to cover every citizen. Huge amounts of money spent on insurance bureaucracy and paperwork could be saved.

+1 MM. Absolutely. Medicare for all as base coverage. If want premium coverage above that, then buy supplemental insurance on top of it.

“Huge amounts of money spent on insurance bureaucracy and paperwork could be saved.”

And instead, we’ll have lots of money spent on government bureaucracy where the employees don’t care one sh*t about reducing healthcare costs.

Yes, Medicare is very efficient.

When your efficiency measurement is percent of dollars that go to healthcare expenditures as compared to the cost of administration.

Bang up measurement…with that math, you can make anything more efficient by having each employee write bigger checks. Awesome.

Extending Medicare to every American would give us a system very similar to the Canadian system. Canada spends around 40% less per capita.

In Canada, medical decisions are made entirely by physicians.

Before we go universal, let’s start by making that fundamental change for Medicare and see how people like it.

Well looky here. It’s a Free$hitFiesta.

Bernie 2016!!

So, what you are saying is that the ends justifies the means?

If that’s your measure, then Trump > Clinton.

They could, except Clinton told the Egyptian prime minister within a day of the attack:

“We know the attack in Libya had nothing to do with the film. It was a planned attack, not a protest.”

Mighty

That was a valiant effort trying to defend that lying dried up corrupt old hag.

did we solve any problems today or make any money?

Disclose your losses.

Up 5 k today!

Interesting.