December 20, 2015

Bits Bucket for December 20, 2015

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here. Please visit my Youtube channel which you can also find here:

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Comment by Jingle Male
2015-12-20 04:10:47

Every few years I see movie theater revenue drop year over year and think the industry is dying. Then, we get a year of blockbusters like Jurrasic World and The Force Awakens. Star Wars is epic!

I guess movie theaters (the epitomy of specialty real estate) will not have to be demolished. It is still human nature to gather in large groups and be entertained! May the Force be with you!

Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 06:46:00

gets people out of the house. I haven’t been in a theater in years. I dont really watch movies at home. I enjoy sports entertainment.

Comment by 10-4GoodBuddy!
2015-12-20 07:37:52

No movie in years? Crikey, I thought when I got old and retired with all the time in the world I’d see everything out whether I liked it or not.

Comment by scdave
2015-12-20 08:30:30

I haven’t been in a theater in years. I dont really watch movies at home. I enjoy sports entertainment ??

Ditto here….

Comment by Anklepants
2015-12-20 09:23:32

Outed as a crank.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-12-20 12:05:12

Have you reached the stage of peeing in jars a la Howard Hughs, scdave?

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Comment by ibbots
2015-12-20 08:15:27

Some movies are better on the big screen. We saw something last summer, planet of the apes maybe, in 3d, it was pretty cool. There are a bunch of those movie houses around here, they serve booze and food.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-12-20 10:06:16

Audience reaction is a big part of a good movie experience, too.

Comment by ibbots
2015-12-20 10:20:03

Funny you should mention that. I was at one of the movie houses watching the denzel Washington movie flight which had a pretty good soundtrack, lotta 60s and 70s, Joe cocker, van morrison, etc. After 2 margaritas the guy sitting next to us apparently thought it would be a good idea to turn it into a sing along!

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Comment by inchbyinch
2015-12-20 15:52:07

Friends treated us to a Friday after work movie a few months back. The amount of commercials was mind blowing. No exaggeration, 25 minutes worth before the movie started.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 19:36:17

Washington University in St. Louis
The economics of Star Wars: How the Empire collapses​​
​Using economic modeling and systems risk analysis, an engineering professor predicts financial ruin for the Star Wars Galaxy
December 1, 2015
By Erika Ebsworth-Goold
Feinstein discusses the economics of a galaxy far, far away. Video by Clark Bowen/WUSTL Video Services.

A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away…​

The Rebel Alliance blew up two of their sworn enemy’s space stations, defeated their leader Emperor Palpatine, and dissolved his government. The fictional Galactic Empire, brought to life by the beloved Star Wars movie franchise, was in ruins after the Battle of Endor, at the end of “Episode VI: Return of the Jedi.”

And as it turns out, the financial state of the Galaxy was in serious trouble as well.

Even “catastrophic,” concludes Zachary Feinstein, PhD, assistant professor of electrical and systems engineering in the School of Engineering & Applied Science at Washington University in St. Louis.

In a case study titled “It’s a Trap: Emperor Palpatine’s Poison Pill​,” Feinstein assesses the condition of the Galactic economy following the Empire’s collapse, and applies economic modeling and systemic risk analysis to the Star Wars economy. He even establishes the Gross Galactic Product, similar to a more traditional GDP.

The bottom line: The Rebel Alliance would have to bail out the Imperial banking sector to prevent a devastating economic collapse.

“This project was really about modeling the size of the Galactic economy and banking sector,” Feinstein said. “Once I had that, I simply applied my research on measuring financial systemic risk to determine the required bailout.”

First, Feinstein modeled the galactic economy by estimating the price of both Death Stars, using the most recently completed aircraft carrier in the American fleet as a measuring stick.

Comparing the price ($17.5 billion) and size (100,000 metric tons of steel) of the USS Gerald Ford with an estimated size of both Death Stars, the price tag for the Empire was astounding: $193 quintillion for the first version; $419 quintillion for the second, though manageable in comparison to the $4.6 sextillion Galactic economy.

Darth Vader and the Empire faced a dire economic future after the Battle of Endor, says the School of Engineering’s Zachary Feinstein.

In the movies, both Death Stars are destroyed within a four-year time span, which would have been a staggering economic blow to the Imperial financial sector. To prevent a total financial collapse would require a bailout of at least 15 percent, and likely greater than 20 percent, of the entire economy’s resources.

“The most surprising result was how large the economic collapse could be,” Feinstein said. “Without a bailout, there was a non-negligible chance of over 30 percent drop in the size of the Galactic economy overnight — larger than the losses from the Great Depression over 4 years (from peak to trough).

“The outlook appears very grim for the common Imperial citizen,” he said. “I think it is unlikely the Rebel Alliance could have found the political will and financial resources to provide the necessary banking bailout until it is too late.

“It may be that the Force is awakening 30 years after the events of Episode VI because of the economic forces at play,” Feinstein said.

What remains to be seen: If economic vitality is restored in time for the new chapter of the Star Wars saga. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” opens nationwide in theaters Dec. 18.

Comment by Combotechie
2015-12-20 04:50:32

Labels suck and here’s an example of a label that really sucks:


In some circles to question is to deny; There is no middle ground.

To question is to deny hence a questioner is labeled an denialist, and according to this guy:

“Denialists are people who inhabit their fictions and run from the truth. They don’t believe there was a Holocaust or a final solution; they insist, despite indisputable molecular evidence, as well as the deaths of tens of millions of people, that AIDS is not caused by H.I.V. They are people who believe that angels are real and that evolution is false.”

This sort of thinking and this labeling puts an end to any further discussion. And woe to any scientist or researcher who, one way or another, gets associated with this label, the label of denialist.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 06:58:21

“In some circles to question is to deny; There is no middle ground.”

Faith-based circles thrive on suppressing the flock’s right or desire to question the authorities. If nobody questions authority, they can operate with impunity, sans scrutiny.

Comment by scdave
2015-12-20 08:34:53

There is no middle ground.” ??

That epitomises the right wing of the republican party…

Comment by phony scandals
2015-12-20 08:53:09

“That epitomises the right wing of the republican party…”

#6 “A good tactic is one your people enjoy.” They’ll keep doing it without urging and come back to do more. They’re doing their thing, and will even suggest better ones.

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Comment by redmondjp
2015-12-20 10:51:33

You mean the left wing of the democratic party . . .

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Comment by 10-4GoodBuddy!
2015-12-20 15:51:58

Latest leftist Pew Research Poll from NY Times show why Trump wins:

29%) Americans cite terrorism (18%), national security (8%) or ISIS (7%) as the most important problem facing the country today. One year ago, just 4% of the public cited any of these issues. The share citing terrorism is the highest it has been since February 2003.

The share of the public now mentioning economic issues is lower than at any point in the last eight years: 23% today name an economic issue such as the economy (9%) or unemployment (7%) as the most important problem facing the nation. In December 2014, 34% named an economic issue; nearly half (48%) did so two years ago.

Comment by phony scandals
2015-12-20 07:53:09

“This sort of thinking and this labeling puts an end to any further discussion. And woe to any scientist or researcher who, one way or another, gets associated with this label, the label of denialist.”

Rules for Radicals
From Wikipedia

Once the community was united behind a common symbol, Alinsky would find a common enemy for the community to be united against.

“Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.”

The rules

#5 “Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.” There is no defense. It’s irrational. It’s infuriating. It also works as a key pressure point to force the enemy into concessions.

#6 “A good tactic is one your people enjoy.” They’ll keep doing it without urging and come back to do more. They’re doing their thing, and will even suggest better ones.

#13 “Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.” Cut off the support network and isolate the target from sympathy. Go after people and not institutions; people hurt faster than institutions.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-12-20 08:17:56

“Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.”

Isn’t that exactly what you and your fellow know nothings do?

Comment by phony scandals
2015-12-20 08:48:03

The Hillary Letters

Hillary Clinton, Saul Alinsky correspondence revealed

BY: Alana Goodman
September 21, 2014 10:00 pm

Previously unpublished correspondence between Hillary Clinton and the late left-wing organizer Saul Alinsky reveals new details about her relationship with the controversial Chicago activist and shed light on her early ideological development.

Clinton met with Alinsky several times in 1968 while writing a Wellesley college thesis about his theory of community organizing.

Clinton’s relationship with Alinsky, and her support for his philosophy, continued for several years after she entered Yale law school in 1969, two letters obtained by the Washington Free Beacon show.

The letters obtained by the Free Beacon are part of the archives for the Industrial Areas Foundation, a training center for community organizers founded by Alinsky, which are housed at the University of Texas at Austin.

The letters also suggest that Alinsky, who died in 1972, had a deeper influence on Clinton’s early political views than previously known.

A 23-year-old Hillary Clinton was living in Berkeley, California, in the summer of 1971. She was interning at the left-wing law firm Treuhaft, Walker and Burnstein, known for its radical politics and a client roster that included Black Panthers and other militants.

On July 8, 1971, Clinton reached out to Alinsky, then 62, in a letter sent via airmail, paid for with stamps featuring Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and marked “Personal.”

“Dear Saul,” she began. “When is that new book [Rules for Radicals] coming out—or has it come and I somehow missed the fulfillment of Revelation?”

“I have just had my one-thousandth conversation about Reveille [for Radicals] and need some new material to throw at people,” she added, a reference to Alinsky’s 1946 book on his theories of community organizing. - 111k - Cached - Similar pages

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-12-20 09:07:16

B…b…but Hillary is the champion of the middle class! She said so….

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2015-12-20 08:49:23

Shhh! You’re spoiling the narrative.

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Comment by Anklepants
2015-12-20 08:50:20

Ridiculing Lolas is indeed fun OddSpit. But it’s all fair because you want 90 percent of my stuff.

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Comment by Oddfellow
2015-12-20 09:14:38

But it’s all fair because you want 90 percent of my stuff.

Demonize the opposition and suddenly everything you might do to them is fair, right?

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2015-12-20 09:24:21

Silence, stuff grabbing demon!

Comment by Anklepants
2015-12-20 09:27:22

Demonize those not on the skin color politics bus.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 09:46:31

‘#5 “Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.”’

Apparently Hillary’s attack dogs post here when bored.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2015-12-20 10:12:17

Ridiculous draws ridicule. Stop being ridiculous, and you won’t get ridiculed.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-12-20 17:54:42

Apparently Hillary’s attack dogs post here when bored.

Are you referring to the Pineapple pit puppies?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-12-20 18:44:33

Stop the Lolaisms and you won’t get Lola’ed.

Comment by aNYCdj
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 07:19:54

This is a favorable trend. Does that article have a slide show linked to it?

Comment by aNYCdj
2015-12-20 07:48:46

yeah there is a little arrow above selena gomez

Comment by 10-4GoodBuddy!
2015-12-20 07:48:47

Shouldn’t these women be stoned? I thought you were in favor of stuff like that?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 09:29:53

The Muslim women in my personal circle don’t wear hijabs or other old-fashioned Islamic female attire.

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Comment by palmetto
2015-12-20 10:12:28

Nor in mine, back in the late 1980s. However, all that changed when the uncles flew in from Iran for a visit to see how their female relatives were doing in the USA. Now THAT was a real hoedown hootenanny.

I’ve already posted on this at length before, so I won’t do a repeat. Needless to say, I’ve not had any contact since and no desire.

Comment by Jingle Male
2015-12-21 04:06:32

Boobie housing…..that’s not off topic, particularly if there is a bubble…….

Comment by oxide
2015-12-20 06:19:56

Comment by 10-4GoodBuddy!
2015-12-19 06:57:20

Anyone else got a Ph.D. Worthy phrase of wisdom?

Yes: “Everyone else has one.” You want a job, _____________. True for undergrad degrees too.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 06:52:58

In some fields, a PhD is your union card. No card, no job.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 07:00:06

PS I’m guessing GoodBuddy doesn’t work in one of those fields. LOL

Comment by 10-4GoodBuddy!
2015-12-20 07:26:56

God forbid I sit on my ass counting Angels on the head of a pin and demanding someone else’s 90 percent like most PHDs. No, I work for a living. Hear that you Lolas, get a job.

And quit making all your decisions based on skin color.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-12-20 08:04:21

PhD= Unhireable fiction publishing brain dead asswipes unworthy of any pay rate.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2015-12-20 08:51:03

The ignoramous chorus is in fine voice this morning.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-12-20 09:51:47

PhD paper might be useful for CrapWrap anyways.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 10:24:06

‘#5 “Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.” There is no defense. It’s irrational. It’s infuriating. It also works as a key pressure point to force the enemy into concessions.’

It seems like a lot of HBB ad hominem attacks use Hillary’s play book. Shouldn’t you stay focused on your efforts to get her elected, instead of wasting time ridiculing HBB posters?

Comment by redmondjp
2015-12-20 10:54:30

And it is nothing new. Left-wing politicians have been using ridicule successfully now for a long time. Al Franken was a master at it. When challenged, the comeback is always: “Don’t you have a sense of humor? I was just joking.”

Comment by palmetto
2015-12-20 11:30:50

As tempting as it is to diss academics, given the current state of education in the US (and I’m certainly guilty of doing that myself from time to time) I would urge people to resist that temptation. Certainly there are useless academics, just as there are useless workers in any field who manage to slide by on the backs of their more productive counterparts . But there are those who do some very good work and provide valuable research, etc.

I don’t think people realize how fragile civilization is, rendered even more so by globalization. We are only one cataclysm away from major disaster. One nuclear event, one incurable plague. At the very least, an EMP could knock us back into the 19th century, and it wouldn’t even have to be man-made. A strong solar flare could do it (see Carrington Event). James Comey at the FBI has been pleading for a while with the federal government to harden the grid against such an event, man-made or otherwise, in vain. So what’s my point?

It is certainly possible to descend into the Dark Ages again. And during the Dark Ages of old, it was a group of Irish monks, definitely the academics of their day, who are thought to have saved Western Civilization:

The article is interesting because of its parallels to today. Another Dark Age is very possible. Indeed, it might even be preferable to some of the alternatives. Should that happen, there will be academics who will be instrumental in preserving and advancing human knowledge that would otherwise be lost.

The Roman Empire collapsed, essentially from within, because it became decadent, corrupt, murderous and rotten, pretty much in that order. And yet over the course of its history it gave rise to beneficial advances as well. It is unfortunate that many of these advances were buried, because people all over Europe associated them with the more oppressive qualities of the Roman Empire.

For example, personal hygiene in the form of cleanliness and bathing was so key to its civilization that even the lower classes frequented the baths. And yet, in many parts of Europe during the Dark Ages that followed the collapse and into medieval times, bathing was associated with the oppression of the Roman Empire and so fell into disfavor, even among the ruling classes of the day.

And so it can happen with knowledge, education and academia, if these things become associated with the oppression of people. Being an ignorant doofus becomes a virtue by default.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 12:43:27

“It is certainly possible to descend into the Dark Ages again.”

Hear hear! That’s one reason I would rather not see my tax dollars go towards helping groups like ISIS get organized.

Comment by 10-4GoodBuddy!
2015-12-20 07:39:10

Cram this George Will:

Higher education is increasingly a house divided. In the sciences and even the humanities, actual scholars maintain the high standards of their noble calling. But in the humanities, especially, and elsewhere, faux scholars representing specious disciplines exploit academia as a jobs program for otherwise unemployable propagandists hostile to freedom of expression.

He’s half right.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-12-20 07:56:18

“Higher education” is succumbing to the ever-more-extortionate demands of the SJWs to accelerate our march into IDIOCRACY and a permanent collectivist dictatorship.

Comment by Overbanked
2015-12-20 09:58:55

I heard this on an episode of The Big Bang Theory (I don’t know the characters:)

Chick: So what’s new in the world of physics?
Nerd: Well, really nothing since the 1930’s.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 06:51:18

Does it seem like U.S. housing keeps going through the roof while most other risk asset classes are earth bound?

How long can an anomaly like this persist before economic fundamentals bring about its demise?

Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 06:55:37

as long as the credit is there and the buyers are still looking for a quick buck.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
Comment by Combotechie
2015-12-20 07:03:28

“Does it seem like U.S. housing keeps going through the roof while most other risk asset classes are earth bound?”

Most asset classes do not have the backing of the substantial number of people (read voters) that is needed in order for their values (read prices) to be supported by governmental actions.

But real estate does, hence real estate prices keep going through the roof.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-12-20 07:33:39

Which explains this;

US Housing Plummets To 20 Year Low As Global Economy Slows

Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 06:53:26

I know we have some very smart people here, winners.

I am convinced we have a dollar bubble.Everyone jumped into the dollar based on a tightening cycle that will never happen. I want to make money to pay bills.

What are your short dollar plays? Lets get some ideas on the table, no BS.

I did a little research on an ETF that directly shorts the dollar and to my surprise there is very little out there.

Going long commodities and commodity companies seems like a good strategy.

Any ideas? I need more beer!

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 07:06:12

I think you’re onto it with the commodities play. The only problem is timing. Remember that the last time commodities similarly tanked, in the mid-80s, they stayed in the basement for well over a decade.

What’s your timeline for getting decent returns?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 07:13:20

The big wild card, often discussed here, is the timing of QE4. Figure out how to buy the dips between QEs and sell at the post-QE bubble tops if you want to get really, really rich.

Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 07:18:31


I need some cash flow my friend.

Things move a lot faster these days. I don’t think commodities will be in the sh@tter that long.

UDN is a bearish dollar fund

What about currencies of commodity producers?

I want to back up the truck.

QE4 is around the corner.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 09:39:46

To my recollection, a poster named Dan predicted a near-term rebound in oil this year that never happened. It seems like China has yet to bottom out; until that point, there is no way to know how much farther down the bottom is, or how long this bust will last.

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Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 10:23:57

so basically you have no ideas and you will monday morning quarterback and miss out again? You are skirting around my question as usual.

Get something on the table my friend.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 12:46:12

Don’t worry about me, poet. Just because I don’t talk my book here doesn’t mean I have all my cash stuffed under the mattress.

Comment by Combotechie
2015-12-20 07:09:11

“I am convinced we have a dollar bubble.”

I am convinced that massive amounts of dollars that people believe they now have or believe they have coming to them are destined to go poof.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 07:16:11

The ‘poof’ action limits the supply of dollars, which is supportive of the dollar bubble.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-12-20 07:42:59

What are your short dollar plays?

Buying gold would seem the simplest.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-12-20 07:57:53

Gold is a de facto short on the dollar.

Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 08:37:21

gold seems pricey and appears to be heavily manipulated.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2015-12-20 08:47:33

Aluminum cans. All you need is a sack, coat-hanger and a PHD. And there’s always dimes in front of a steam-roller.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2015-12-20 12:52:32

Gold was not pricey at $1900 but is pricey now? And relative to what asset?

It is around $1100. About 35% higher than the peak 35 years ago. Hell, five year notes did better. Those who bought gold regularly over 35 years and store it are in a great position. They avoid the bail ins that we will have. And no government edict will take gold out of patriotic hands. Gold will be a good item to trade with for those with no low tech skills to barter with.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2015-12-20 14:25:52

Gold was not pricey at $1900 but is pricey now?

No, it wasn’t “pricey” then—it was RIDONKULOUS! I thought it departed from sanity at around $1250 on the way up.

Gold will be a good item to trade with for those with no low tech skills to barter with.

It’s a terrible item for trade/barter—how easily can you cut off a $5 chunk of it to trade me for a serving of chicken dinner? Not very easily. And almost no one except for drug-dealers has a scale with sufficient accuracy to assess small payments.

Not to mention: I still don’t buy the “societal collapse” scenario that demands you have ready access to lots of cash in non-electronic form.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-12-20 14:29:40

I’ll trade a few grains of gold for your rapidly depreciating shanty.

A fair even trade.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2015-12-20 14:33:51

As easily as you can cut a tenth off a twenty dollar bill and buy a candy bar with it. I go to a coin shop with gold and walk out with cash. In thirty minutes.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 19:49:09

“As easily as you can cut a tenth off a twenty dollar bill and buy a candy bar with it.”

It takes under thirty seconds for the average cashier to take receipt of a $20 bill and return $18 in change, at any U.S. retail establishment. No need to visit a coin shop before spending the cash.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2015-12-20 20:48:36

Maybe so. But I make exchanges months in advance to have the right medium exchange for the right purpose.

Abundant cash under the mattress: check

Plenty of precious metals (behind the oatmeal): check

And now Bitcoin accumulation gradually.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-12-20 08:46:07

Ironically, if you don’t have enough money for a 24 pak, you shouldn’t be “investing”.

Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 09:06:41

I like using other peoples money, that is the american way!

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2015-12-20 12:57:41

Municipal bonds, savings bonds, and treasuries are my way of extracting money from the taxpayers who refuse to get rid of taxation. Same thing about me getting some of Oxide’s money for her voting for Obama in 2008 and 2012. Obama made more defense spending fill my Wallet with his war escalation.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2015-12-20 15:08:13

Ah, the old “withdrawing your support by financing the effort” tactic.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2015-12-20 11:44:43

What are your short dollar plays? Lets get some ideas on the table, no BS.

If you want to short the dollar, why not do it directly, rather than indirectly via commodities?

In other words, trade foreign currency futures; go long futures contracts on foreign currencies. They will strengthen relative to the dollar in your opinion, correct?

Full disclosure: I’ll tell you how to do it, but I think you are wrong. Every other central bank appears to be QE’ing more than us. If that trend continues, the commodity position you are considering is likely to fare poorly, as will the more direct dollar shorts via FX.

Comment by 10-4GoodBuddy!
2015-12-20 07:08:44

They pressed the button on Bernie. Well now that the charade of Bernie is finally over, after he handed her the nomination on a silver platter for a second time in a “debate” by apologizing to her, we can all finally move on to see whether the Rs actually let their voters pick their own candidate.

It was all staged from before Bernie ever announced. It’s why no one on the left is actually scared of him running 3rd party. You rubes got played.

Comment by palmetto
2015-12-20 07:52:17

Sunday Humor:

Saturday Night Live had an awesome send-up of the Republican debate. Did a better job of taking Jeb out than GWB. Darryl Hammond was awesome as Trump.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-12-20 07:54:36

cya Barney! We hardly knew ya! :mrgreen:

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-12-20 07:59:00

You rubes got played.


Comment by palmetto
2015-12-20 08:15:46

Wait, WHAT? There was actually a Democratic prez debate last night? I heard there was going to be one, but when I tuned in at the appointed time, all I saw was a bunch of pundits sitting around hissing and lisping at each other on a glitzy set. I figured the debate had been cancelled in favor of ET’s red carpet fashion commentary show and decided not to wait around for CoJo to show up.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-12-20 08:21:05

There was? Musta happened while I was watching the cowgirls get slammed to the bottom of the NFC east and shut out of any hopes of making it to the playoffs. :mrgreen:

Go Giants!

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Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2015-12-20 13:09:24

A popular libertarian I am following on FB predicted Bernie handing the Democrap nomination to Hitlary. But there is still about eight months in the campaign. Limousine socialist E Warren - is she still thinking about running? I somehow think E Warren is not going to and is helping Hitlary.

The libertarian also predicts Trump will be the Republican nominee and pull something extremely goofy to give Hitlary the win.

I predict Hitlary will get 25% of the eligible votes, Trump will get 12% of the eligible votes, 1% will go to third parties and write ins, and 62% of the eligible voters just won’t vote. In 2012 60% of the eligible voters did not vote.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-12-20 18:05:13

I predict 95% of the electorate will be stupid.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2015-12-20 21:09:19

I predict 95% of those who vote will be stupid. Major difference.

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Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 07:09:28

“As we reported a little after 1:15pm on Thursday when the details of the Fed’s first post-hike reverse repo operation were revealed, something very strange and unexpected happened: not only did the Fed not drain $1 trillion, or $800 billion, or even $310 billion, the Fed did not drain any incremental liquidity at all!

The Fed didn’t really drain any liquidity yesterday. They moved the IOER up to .50%, moved the RRP rate up to .25%, and the RRP volume
came in at $105 billion, only $3 billion more than the day before. Where was the draining? But interest rates moved up anyway to reflect the
tightening, without any fundamental change. Basically, the Fed decreed a rate tightening and the market moved rates higher.

Markets work in interesting ways sometimes. Why should the GC rate trade at .41% yesterday when it traded at .21% the week before? In
the Repo market, rates are often set by where traders believe rates should be. Then, rates move higher or lower with imbalances between
supply and demand throughout the day. Naturally, there are substitution effects as Repo rates change in relation to other market rates, but fundamentals don’t necessarily dictate why Repo rates trade at .40% compared to .45%.
I wonder how many economic interest rate models include “by decree” as a factor?”

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by In Colorado
2015-12-20 10:55:59

This has happened before. Mexican conglomerates can borrow in Pesos or in USD. It costs more to borrow in Pesos, as interest rates are higher, and they are higher for a reason: there is always the risk the the Peso will lose value vs. Uncle Buck.

So they borrow in dollars, whistling as they walk past the graveyard, hoping that the Peso will not devalue. The problem with that wishful thinking is that it has never come true. The Peso has gone from 13 to almost 18 to the USD. In hindsight it would have been better to borrow in Pesos and pay an extra basis point on the interest.

This has happened before and will happen again.

Comment by phony scandals
2015-12-20 08:12:01

“We believe Secretary Clinton will be coming around the corner any minute,”

And we’ll all go out to meet her when she comes
Yes we’ll all go out to meet her when she comes
We’ll all go out to greet her, yes we will all go out to meet her,
We’ll all go out to meet her when she comes
She’ll be wearing red pajamas when she comes
She’ll be wearing red pajamas when she comes
Wearing red pajamas, why is she wearing red pajamas,
Don’t know why but she’ll be wearing red pajamas when she comes
She’ll be coming round the mountain when she comes

Hillary Clinton Disappears During Commercial Break, Returns to Debate Stage Late

by J.D. Durkin | 10:05 pm, December 19th, 2015

During the ABC News Democratic Debate on Saturday night, party front runner Hillary Clinton was apparently not alerted as to when to return to the debate stage after the event’s first commercial break. While debate moderators David Muir and Martha Raddatz of ABC News attempted to continue the conversation, only Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley were on the stage.

Muir made note coming back from commercial that Clinton was missing; as the opening question turned to Senator Sanders, a rousing applause — perhaps one of sarcasm? — rippled through the crowd as Clinton returned to her podium. Clinton simply said into the microphone, “Sorry”.

“We believe Secretary Clinton will be coming around the corner any minute,” stalled the moderator Muir. The question for Sanders dealt with the rising salaries of corporate CEOs, but Clinton’s late arrival on stage stole the focus of the moment.…/ - 128k -

Comment by Anklepants
2015-12-20 09:03:05

Having to take a monster dump during a debate is rough. Next time skip Chipotle.

Comment by phony scandals
2015-12-20 09:23:08

“Next time skip Chipotle”

Maybe Hillary should fire Huma and hire Nurse Nancy.

How to Stop and Prevent Leakage When Using an Adult Diaper

Posted by Nurse Nancy on 10/24/2015 to General

One of the most common problems with people that use incontinence products is that the product leaks and they can’t figure out why. How do you stop and prevent an adult diaper from leaking? Outlined below are the five most common solutions to this problem.

1) Try a different size/style/brand.

2) Try booster pads.

3) Make sure it’s snug around the legs.

4) Try an overnight product.

5) Try reusable underpads for a backup.

Incontinence product leakage can be solved! Just use the 5 tips outlined above, and contact our nurse if you have any detailed questions (Click on the ‘Ask a Nurse’ tab at the top of the website). Feel free to leave any kind of comment below, we’d love to hear from you. - 48k

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-12-20 08:24:10

It’s the price. You’d have to be a blooming idiot to pay prices anytime in the last 15 years and most everyone knows it.

Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 08:39:12

wall street gobbled up all the foreclosures and have become slumlords to the middle class.

The american dream is now renting an apartment?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-12-20 09:13:09

Wall Street gobbled up all the foreclosures using trillions in free gambling money from the Fed to become slumlords to the middle class, with 95% of ‘Murican voters sanctioning this crony capitalism with their votes for Obama, McCain & Romney.

There, fixed it for you.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2015-12-20 09:29:10

“In mid-2015, 43 million families and individuals lived in rental housing, up nearly 9 million from 2005…The bursting of the housing bubble played an important role, with nearly 8 million homes lost to foreclosure since the homeownership rate peaked in 2004. Household incomes have also fallen back to 1995 levels…”

People wake up from their dream one at a time.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2015-12-20 13:13:14

Rent a one bedroom unit. All single renters should do so. No matter what net worth. Excess money should go into crypto currency. Stay mobile. My next office may be in Acapulco.

Comment by 10-4GoodBuddy!
2015-12-20 15:16:36

What happens to Bitcoin once the EMP happens?

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2015-12-20 16:14:29

Nothing. He ledgers are stored in millions of computers on hard drives. I am currently updating my node to the latest block. EMP is likely to be regional, if ever done, anyway. Once over with, power up the mesh networks and sync with the ledgers that were not originally affected.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-12-20 08:16:17

If all the sheeple would cancel their subscriptions to Oligopoly-controlled media outlets and seek out credible blogs instead, perhaps they’d make more informed and educated choices. But being a sheep is probably easier.

Comment by Anklepants
2015-12-20 09:13:46

A sheep or a bear, but if you’re gonna be a bear, be a grizzly. Ask Lola. Hence no pic.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-12-20 08:18:51

“Huge Fukushima Cover-Up Exposed, Government Scientists In Meltdown”

“Fukushima radiation just off the North American coast is higher now than it has ever been”

California. The poorest state in the nation is now glowing in the dark too.

Comment by palmetto
2015-12-20 08:52:30

This is not good news. Think of all those multi-million dollar properties in Silly Valley, abandoned and rotting away. Oh, the humanity!

Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 08:35:16

U.S. Eases 35-Year-Old Real Estate Tax on Foreign Investors

What is this all about?

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2015-12-20 09:27:41

It’s about becoming homeless in the land our forefathers conquered.

Comment by Oddfellow
2015-12-20 09:37:47

Maybe Wall Street is just conquering us, which apparently makes it fair.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-12-20 10:09:26

This is what the sheeple voted for.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2015-12-20 10:14:31

You and your sheeple. All evils in the world can be traced to sheeple, and if weren’t for them you’d be successful and happy.

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Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 08:47:12

have we reached peak cheap import consumption?

Look around your house. What other cheap import do u need?

Comment by scdave
2015-12-20 09:35:46

have we reached peak cheap import consumption ??

Consumption declining with production capacity ability higher…

Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 10:20:11

how many flat screens in a house is enough?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-12-20 09:05:30

Spanish voters heading for the polls today. It remains to be seen if they will sanction the crony capitalist status quo, like their retard ‘Murican counterparts, or reject their corrupt, incompetent political establishment.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2015-12-20 09:28:53

Either way, Raymond will find something to cry about. Stay tuned!

Comment by phony scandals
2015-12-20 09:50:16

Gun Control Executive Orders Expected Within Weeks

Obama actively working to circumvent Congress

Daily Sheeple | JOSHUA KRAUSE - December 20, 2015 290 Comments

After countless mass shootings during his time as president, all of which failed to inspire the public to yield on gun rights issues, Obama has had enough with our political system.

He’s actively working to circumvent Congress, and instate the gun control measures he’s always wanted by decree. We now have a timeline for when that will occur.

White House communications director Jen Psaki told Bloomberg that within a matter of “weeks, not months” Obama will review the recommendations for executive orders he’s been given by the Department of Justice. The DOJ is currently trying to figure out what options Obama has, which could legally circumvent Congress and survive any lawsuits that gun rights groups are sure to throw at the order.

Psaki further added that gun violence is “probably the issue that has touched him most personally over the course of his presidency.” For now it’s unclear what he plans to do precisely, though he has frequently called for more thorough background checks in the past, and more recently has called for preventing people on the no-fly list from owning firearms.

According to Psaki, Obama is planning a “range of steps that can be taken as it relates to the people who have access to guns [and] how people gain access to guns,” and that he “will not be satisfied” unless some kind of action is taken on firearms before the end of his term.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-12-20 10:12:28

We can’t have a collectivist tyranny while the bitter clingers have a means of resisting. Our oligarch overlords like Bloomberg and Soros demand that the populace be disarmed. It’s for the children….

Comment by Goon
2015-12-20 11:38:45

I asked yesterday but nobody answered:

Do they have free wifi in the death camps?

I love the smell of Zyklon B in the morning :)

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2015-12-20 13:14:19

Molon Labe.

Comment by Anklepants
2015-12-20 09:53:20

Speaking of ridicule, when is MightyMoron coming to advocate 1st Amendment rights for ISIS.

Comment by Goon
2015-12-20 11:40:25

With the holidays he’s not working his regular shifts this week

Comment by phony scandals
2015-12-20 14:30:29

I don’t think MightyMike got a very good Christmas bonus from his Soros funded employer this year. He was a little off and chippy last week.

He was probably expecting a big bonus check to put in a new swimming pool and got a 1 year membership to the Jelly of the Month Club.

Christmas Vacation Bonus Check Scene - YouTube - 174k -

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-12-20 15:09:50

He’s flakier than a new england pie crust.

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Comment by Anklepants
2015-12-20 16:26:29

Cousin Lola’s visiting him in his RV.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-12-20 17:28:30


Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 10:29:42

As usual no one saw the commodity collapse coming. I’m sure there were some smart folks out there who made a sh@tload of cash on the collapse.

You guys need to start thinking about stuff before it actually happens and make some real money.

Waiting around 10 years for a collapse isn’t helping anyone.

All I keep hearing about is after the fact news.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-12-20 11:46:50

‘no one saw the commodity collapse coming’

A year and a half ago, when I was doing at least one post a week on China (before their media was ordered to stop publishing negative reports, that should have told you all you needed to know) anyone reading would have seen the commodity collapse very clearly. Problem is, you are here in the bits bucket and missed it. I had hundreds of articles in those posts and especially in the comments to those posts, showing it blowing up in metals, solar panels, New Zealand dairy, rosewood furniture to Macau casinos - everything. All of it could have been seen in my posts.

Six or seven months ago I found an obscure Houston paper with a broker telling us the SWHTF. Did you miss that one too? I pointed out Taylor Morrison has the biggest exposure to Houston.

Day’s Range: 14.95 - 15.47
52wk Range: 14.95 - 21.55

I’ve long said you don’t have to predict, just observe. That aside, I don’t understand all this bottom top picking. You can buy foreclosures, for example, every day of every year. Do you know how to make money on that?

Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 13:54:26

buy low sell high!

Comment by MacBeth
2015-12-20 12:45:41

You may want to spend less time reading “informative” articles that certain individuals here post ad-nauseum.

Oftentimes, what people think passes as knowledge and wisdom isn’t.

Based on the many hundreds (thousands?) of articles posted here about the ruin that Greece (!) and China supposedly will bring to the rest of the world, you’d think the world would have ended six months ago. But it didn’t.

I can see how people are suckered by China “news”, but Greece “news”? You gotta be kidding. Interestingly, the very person who posted dozens upon dozens of articles about Greece continues to bad-mouth Dan for what he believes is Dan’s stupidity. To that, I say look in the mirror. Talking about being led around by the nose.

The real news is what is happening within the United States. Nothing else comes close.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 13:04:44

“The real news is what is happening within the United States. Nothing else comes close.”

The commodity collapse was made in China, as will be the next global housing bust.

In case you missed all the posts Ben mentioned, certainly you couldn’t have overlooked all the back-and-forth discussion of this subject between me and AlbqDan in the bits bucket? He was the guy repeatedly assuring us that China’s problems would blow over in a few months, up until when he stopped posting. I was the target of his repeated ad hominem attacks, due to my frequently poking holes in his scenarios.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 23:04:27

International Business Times
China’s Renminbi Is Plunging At A Historic Rate, Raising Fears For Chinese Economy
By Cole Stangler
On 12/20/15 AT 11:03 AM
A man walks past an advertisement promoting exchange services centered on the Chinese renminbi, U.S. dollar and euro at a foreign-exchange dealer in Hong Kong Aug. 13, 2015.
Photo: Reuters/Tyrone Siu

China’s renminbi is falling at a record-setting pace. If Chinese central bankers fix the value of their currency at a lower rate Monday, it will mark the longest stretch of consecutive weakenings since it was officially unpegged from the U.S. dollar in 2005.

The depreciation helps China’s export-oriented sector, but fuels investor concerns and ongoing frustrations over trade. It also comes as Chinese economic growth has slowed.

The People’s Bank of China has fixed the renminbi lower for 10 trading days in a row, tying similar streaks last month and during the crisis-ridden summer of 2008. In the past two weeks, the value of the currency, aka the yuan, has dropped 1.49 percent, the Financial Times reported.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 13:16:26

The Examiner Union
Goldman Sachs may face trial for role in Greek debt crisis
Thursday, 17 Dec, 2015

Goldman Sachs faces the prospect of potential legal action from Greece over the complex financial deals in 2001 that many blame for its subsequent debt crisis.

A leading adviser to debt-riven countries has offered to help Athens recover some of the vast profits made by the investment bank.

The Independent has learnt that a ex- Goldman banker, who has advised indebted governments on recovering losses made from complex transactions with banks, has written to the Greek government to advise that it has a chance of clawing back some of the hundreds of millions of dollars it paid Goldman to secure its position in the single currency.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 13:19:38

Greek’s debt crises: Women forced into prostitution for ‘the cost of a sandwich’!
By: ABP News Bureau | Last Updated: Sunday, 29 November 2015 8:12 AM

In Greece, women are being forced into prostitution for as little as the cost of a sandwich because of the country’s crippling debt crisis.

A new report reveals how more women are ready to sell their bodies for sex and many are selling sex for as little as €2 (approx Rs 140).

In Greece, there are now around 18,500 sex workers said report author Gregory Lazos of Panteion University in Athens.

Professor Lazos told The Times: “Some women just do it for a cheese pie, or a sandwich they need to eat because they are hungry.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-12-20 18:09:18

Where are the fathers and brothers of these women?

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Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2015-12-20 13:26:53

Why bother timing it unless investing is your full time job. Like oil specialized funds or ETFs? Initial investment of $3000 into one and put in $50 per month over at least ten years. I do this with a REIT fund, VGSIX, with emerging markets over ten years and gold over twenty years.

Even gold in physical form beats buying a house and expecting a gain when you sell your house. You have only one shot to buy the house at the right time and even so, there is no guarantee section 8 housing will not come to your neighborhood. Whereas with buying gold regularly, you can be wrong for several years and still be right over most of the years you buy.

Comment by scdave
2015-12-20 11:57:10

You can buy foreclosures, for example, every day of every year ??

Ben, you are rehabbing and renting out these foreclosures ??

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-12-20 12:48:47

I’ve been asked to help some people figure out the Maricopa trustee auctions, land, commercial, whatever. But I rehabbed REO’s for years third party to the lenders. Some for investor/landlords. You can make money any number of ways from distressed property. And it’s always out there.

Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 15:50:58

city of maricopa? It is booming down there. I love the wildhorse pass casino. You cant go wrong buying there.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-12-20 16:09:01


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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-12-20 12:39:39

US and China shares same failed economic model

“China Now Has So Much Bad Debt, It’s Selling Soured Loans On Alibaba”

Comment by Combotechie
2015-12-20 12:57:39

Just two months ago …

“Alibaba executives to take out personal loans against company stock holdings: Bloomberg”

“The leadership at Alibaba may raise cash by taking out a personal loan, using their stock as collateral to avoid spooking investors, unnamed sources told Bloomberg Friday.

“Alibaba leaders told investors they would not sell shares of the Chinese e-commerce giant, even after they are permitted to do so under an agreement that ends next month, according to the last quarterly earnings call. So, to inject liquidity into the family hedge fund, Jack Ma, chairman, and Joseph Tsai, vice chairman, may need to take out a $2 billion loan instead, Bloomberg reported.”

Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 17:37:52


Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 13:07:29

At least they discovered a useful purpose for Alibaba.

Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 17:40:17


Comment by MacBeth
2015-12-20 13:14:35

I believe that many people have overestimated China since it started to modernize 25 years ago.

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 13:27:59

I believe that many people are underestimating the magnitude and far ranging impacts of the China bust underway.

Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 13:58:28

yellen says the economy must be slowed down with rate hikes!

Things are doing great. buy stocks and homes! That is the constant message.

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Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2015-12-20 13:30:50

One threat that could be bigger than the Muslim terreorists and still bigger than the U.S. government terrorist is China’s uneven ratio of males to females. Restless, frustrated Chinese males without a corresponding female will want to take out their aggression at some point. They might kill each other off or kill men outside of China.

Comment by MacBeth
2015-12-20 15:00:53


If I were one of China’s neighbors, I’d be wondering about that, too.

However, since the projection of power through traditional means (i.e., humans bearing weapons) is very costly, I think the odds of a China-led invasion of the US to be rather small.

Better to encourage the United States to destroy itself.

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Comment by palmetto
2015-12-20 15:22:58

What’re you guys waiting for? New business opportunity here: Chinese mail order husbands. Bring money, boyz, and it’s on like Donkey Kong.

Comment by 10-4GoodBuddy!
2015-12-20 15:25:00

Porn virtual reality is right around the corner!

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Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2015-12-20 15:44:30

And in rushed the 40 thieves….

Comment by azdude
2015-12-20 16:01:13

“This phenomenon could be observed in Japan over the past 26 years. Instead of taking the short term pain and allowing all malinvested capital to be liquidated, Japan’s policymakers decided to deficit spend and print out the wazoo – precisely what has been done in he US in the wake of the 2008 crisis. By trying to reverse corrective market processes, they have ultimately produced the so-called “lost decades”.

Lastly, we are not saying that things will play out exactly in the US as they have in Japan. There are many things that suggest that the situation will develop differently, at least to some extent. The common denominator is only this: central planning and unrestrained fiat money have created such a huge credit boom that the economy’s pool of real funding has come been severely undermined.

Once this happens, it is no longer even possible to create the faux prosperity of a boom to a similar extent as previously by simply printing money. As soon as monetary pumping slows down sufficiently, the bust will tend to return with a vengeance. We strongly suspect that Ms. Yellen and her colleagues will learn this part of the lesson next. Or let us rather say: they aren’t going to learn anything from it – but they will undoubtedly face another “no-one could have seen it coming” scenario. We can’t wait to see what their encore will be when that happens.”

Would it be helpful to the FED if the stock market did crash and people flocked to treasuries and they were able to unload some of their treasuries?

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2015-12-20 18:58:20

Obummer just extended the housing bubble. Granted foreigners a huge tax break so they can continue to price American citizens out of their own states where they grew up.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2015-12-20 19:25:33

Yo Cactus, I drove through Santa Paula and Fillmore Thursday evening. I think you are in the Moorpark area. My gps put me there because the 101 thru Camarillo was slow. Would have given you a shout but I wanted to get my drive to Irvine over with.

Comment by Goon
2015-12-20 20:32:44

Led Zeppelin - Good Times, Bad Times:

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2015-12-20 20:44:33

Yeah those college days were awesome weren’t they? Women, beer, football.

Comment by Goon
2015-12-20 21:12:46

I was the last of a generation before smartphones and social media, you could walk up to any party on 15th Ave (frat row) or 12th Ave
(party row) in Columbus and know someone there…

Listen to the Guess Who perform “No Sugar Tonight”

Comment by Goon
2015-12-20 20:51:29

Instead of listening to excerpts, have the album. The Olivia Tremor Control performed at the Student Union @ The Football Factory University in 2000 and I was one of about 50 people in the audience that night

And now back to your regularly scheduled narrative

Comment by Goon
2015-12-20 21:28:41

Traffic - Shouldn’t Have Took More Than You Gave:

“Time to change the script for this whole place
Reading and not feeling what you say…”

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 22:33:33

Are two party systems forever?

Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-20 22:38:16

Economy & Politics
The Wall Street Journal
Spain’s two-party system may be gone for good after general election shock
By Matt Moffett
Published: Dec 20, 2015 5:27 p.m. ET
Upstart parties to usher in new era of politics in Spain
Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy casts his vote

MADRID—Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party appeared to be the top vote-getter in national elections Sunday but was falling short of obtaining enough support to form a government backed by a majority in parliament, according to two exit polls.

The conservative Popular Party was set to win 114 to 124 of parliament’s 350 seats, a sharp drop from the majority of 186 that it won with Rajoy’s election four years ago, according to exit polls conducted for the national RTVE television network and private channel Antena 3. The Socialist Party, its longtime rival, appeared to be winning 79 to 85 seats, the polls showed.

Corruption scandals and high unemployment sharply eroded support for the two parties, which have alternated power for a third of a century.

Two upstart parties, the far-left Podemos and the centrist Ciudadanos, rode a surge of enthusiasm from younger voters eager for change. Podemos appeared to be winning 70 to 80 seats, and Ciudadanos 46 to 50 seats, according to the polls.

With no party apparently near to obtaining a majority of parliament’s 350 seats, Spain was likely headed for a minority or coalition government. Wheeling and dealing among political leaders in search of a winning alliance could last for days or weeks.

One possible pairing of ideologically compatible parties is the Popular Party and Ciudadanos. Another pairing would join the Socialists and Podemos.

Still other scenarios were possible: It was conceivable that smaller regional parties in the Basque Country, Catalonia or the Canary Islands could end up providing the margin of support needed to form a government. Exit polls showed those parties winning up to 30 seats.

Comment by MightyMike
2015-12-21 08:12:45

The Peter Meter: Assessing Schiff’s predictions

Since the launch of the CNBC program “Futures Now” in October of 2012, one of its most frequent guests has been Peter Schiff, who runs both investment advisory Euro Pacific Capital and precious metals dealer SchiffGold.

In these appearances, he has made a series of brash (often bearish) predictions, which tend to generate a great deal of attention and provoke strong emotions.

Following yet another set of bombastic statements on last week’s episode, CNBC felt it may be high time to use the benefit of hindsight to assess the wisdom of some of his more eyebrow-raising prognostications. Some of those predictions were made when he appeared on the program toward the end of its first month — on October 25, 2012.

Schiff’s call: Gold will rise to $5,000 within a few years

Like most prominent gold bugs, Schiff is a sharp critic of lax U.S. monetary and fiscal policies, which he maintains will eventually weaken the dollar and lead investors to snap up bullion as a safe haven.

“Gold’s got only one direction to go, and that’s higher,” Schiff said in October 2012. “People are going to be shocked at how inexpensive gold was” when it was trading at $1,700.

In that interview, Schiff called for gold to rise to $5,000 in a “few years”; when asked about the time horizon for this target, he replied: “I think you’re going to see a big move sometime in the next couple of years.”

Made when gold was trading about $1,700, this prediction may count among the least prescient ever made on CNBC.

Following a dramatic crash in April 2013, gold was trading at $1,316 a year later; a year after that, gold was trading at $1,230.

When asked about his prediction in October 2014, Schiff granted that “obviously it’s going to take a little bit longer than what I believed at the time,” but went on to predict that “it’ll go through $2,000 very quickly, and people will be upset that they didn’t buy gold at $1,700.”

That prediction, too, has turned out to be flat-out wrong. Rather than quickly moving higher, gold has continued its slow move lower, and ended trading on Friday around $1,060.

In a long series of emails with CNBC, Schiff maintained that his $5,000 gold call has not yet been proven incorrect.

“I never specified that gold would hit 5000 in two years,” Schiff wrote. “You can say that Schiff thought gold would make a big more in two years. He was right, but the move was in the opposite direction.”

The investor also hedged on the original time frame he gave.

“A few could be 3, but it could also be 4 or maybe 5,” Schiff wrote. “The marines are looking for ‘a few good men.’ They are certainly looking for more than two. I used that word specifically to be non descriptive as I did not know exactly how long it would take for gold to hit 5000.”

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2015-12-21 08:43:21

Falling prices are always a good thing Cousin SnowFlake.

Comment by TBoom
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