Bits Bucket for December 26, 2015
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Will the Chinese economy come back in 2016 after the Souper Bowl?
The Times and Democrat
Top story in 2015: China’s sharp economic slowdown
Top 10 Business Stories
AP
In 2015, corporate America announced a wave of mergers and acquisitions, including some whoppers: Arch-rival brewers Budweiser and Miller Genuine Draft would be joined by a $106 billion deal between Anheuser-Busch InBev and SABMiller, in one of The Associated Press’ top stories in 2015.
1 hour ago • PAUL WISEMAN AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON — China’s economy lost some luster and its leaders their aura of invincibility. A commodities boom went bust, spreading pain from Texas oil fields to Indonesian coal mines.
Seven years of near-zero interest rates ended in the United States, while easy money kept flowing elsewhere. Volkswagen cheated on emissions tests. And the rise of Uber intensified a debate about the definition of an employee.
China’s sharp slowdown was chosen as the top business story of 2015 by business editors at The Associated Press, followed by the plunge in energy prices.
Here are the top 10 business stories of the year:
CHINA’S SLOWDOWN
It took five years for people to become really worried over China’s slow-motion economic deceleration. The freak-out finally hit global markets in August. Between Aug. 10 and Aug. 25, the Dow Jones industrial average plunged 11 percent on fears that everyone had underestimated China’s troubles and their impact on the rest of the world.
China’s deceleration is part of an official plan to shift from unsustainable growth from exports and wasteful investment to slower but steadier expansion based on consumer spending. Yet its leaders tarnished their reputation for economic stewardship by clumsily intervening to prop up plunging stock prices. Then they shocked and confused markets by devaluing the Chinese currency.
Economists began to conclude that China’s official story — that its economy was growing at around a brisk 7 percent a year — was far too rosy and that growth might be closer to 5 percent or 6 percent and likely to weaken further.
COLLAPSING COMMODITY PRICES
China’s slowdown and a global oil glut crushed commodities and energy prices. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI commodities index has plunged 34 percent this year to its lowest level since 1999, down 80 percent from its peak. And the main culprit was China’s slowdown. When they were booming, Chinese factories devoured about half the world’s copper, aluminum, nickel and steel.
Oil prices, too, tumbled from $98 a barrel two years ago to under $35. The biggest factor was unrestrained production across the world, which led to a huge supply glut. In response, energy companies slashed investment in America’s oil patch. And workers lost jobs in Zambian mines, Indonesian coal pits and Australian ports. But consumers enjoyed a windfall: Near year’s end, U.S. motorists were paying just $2 a gallon for gasoline, down from $2.47 a year ago.
THE END OF FREE MONEY
When the Fed cut short-term interest rates to near zero in December 2008, the American economy was losing hundreds of thousands of jobs a month. The financial system had nearly toppled. The rate cut was an emergency response. No one expected it to last.
But it did — for seven years. On Dec. 16, the Fed declared that the economy was finally healthy enough to withstand a modest rate hike: It raised the short-term rate it controls from a range of zero to 0.25 percent to one of 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent. But with Europe and Japan still struggling and China decelerating, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China had gone in the reverse direction: They acted to continue or expand their easy-money policies.
…
In 2015, corporate America announced a wave of mergers and acquisitions, including some whoppers: Arch-rival brewers Budweiser and Miller Genuine Draft would be joined by a $106 billion deal between Anheuser-Busch InBev and SABMiller, in one of The Associated Press’ top stories in 2015.
Apparently, a local “craft brewer” (New Belgium) is “for sale”. The asking price, a whopping 1 billion. That’s a lotta dough for Fat Tire. According wikipedia their sales are about 180 million a year.
I know of some guys who have been working there from the early days and who have stock and stock options. These are forklift driver types, not executives. From what I heard, if the company sells for 1 billion (smaller Breckenridge was just acquired by AB InBev) these guys would walk away with 3 million each.
Wherever you are, Mr Albuquerque Dan, we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.
It is hard to deny the effect of 7% growth in GDP. It is hard to deny the effect of 5%……
The hardest part is trying to determine what is the real growth figure in China!
I vacillate between thinking China is in trouble and hoping they can just grow their way out of their problems. It is sort of like a subprime lender trying to “outrun” their bad loan buybacks by doubling their origination volume of new subprime loans! You saw how well that worked in 2008!
The mainland’s working-age population continued to fall last year as Beijing struggled to address a spiralling demographic challenge made worse by its one-child policy.
The mainland’s total population stood at 1.37 billion at the end of 2014, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, an increase of 7.1 million on the previous year.
The working-age population, between 16 and 59, fell to 915.8 million last year, down 3.7 million from the end of 2013.
While the shrinking labour pool is helping to prevent a rise in unemployment, it is also driving up labour costs and eroding the manufacturing and export competitiveness that helped fuel China’s 30-year expansion.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1683778/chinas-workforce-shrinks-nearly-4-million-amid-greying-population
It isn’t that there are 4 million less workers that is the issue, it is the average again is going up. Young people put up with more than oldsters, they have less ill health and in the furnace of China I expect a lot of people past the age of 40 are truly knackered. Pollution comes at a cost and while youngsters can get by for the young and older people it can often be fatal.
Young people put up with more than oldsters, they have less ill health and in the furnace of China I expect a lot of people past the age of 40 are truly knackered.
While no doubt this is true, what other choice do Chinese oldsters have but to continue working? I’m pretty sure they don’t have food stamps or other forms of the dole, and I’ll bet their version of Social Security/old age pension doesn’t kick in until they are much older and probably pays a pittance.
Loss of efficiency will drag on the economy.
Meanwhile, their bosses are buying up f-ing floating boxes of air, using the billions that they took out of these poor laborers hides. Disgusting.
With multiple empty cities dotting the global landscape, they’ve got a whole lot more buying to do Donk.
The Economist
Finance and economics
Debt in China
Deleveraging delayed
Credit growth is still outstripping economic growth
Oct 24th 2015 | SHANGHAI
IN MOST respects, double-digit growth is a relic of the past for China. In the third quarter the economy grew by just 6.9% year-on-year according to official data, and probably by a percentage point or two less in reality. Yet bank loans increased by 15.4% in the third quarter compared with the same period in 2014. Having released a torrent of credit to buoy the economy during the financial crisis, China was supposed to have started deleveraging by now. Instead, banks are continuing to pump debt into the economy, while the authorities, apparently worried about the damage a contraction in credit might do, coax them on.
Growth in credit has at least slowed in recent years. A broad measure is “total social financing” (TSF), which encompasses bank loans, corporate bonds and a range of shadowy loan-like products. TSF growth soared to 35% in 2009 when the government called on banks to open the taps and support the then-faltering economy. It has since decelerated: it rose by 13% in the third quarter from a year earlier. The problem, though, is that nominal GDP growth has fallen much lower, to 6.2%.
This means that China’s overall debt-to-GDP ratio is continuing its steady upward march (see chart). Debt was about 160% of annual output in 2007. Now, China’s debt ratio stands at more than 240%, or 161 trillion yuan ($25 trillion), according to calculations by The Economist. It has risen by nearly 50 percentage points over the past four years alone, with slowing growth only serving to magnify indebtedness.
A rapid increase in debt in a short space of time has historically been a good predictor of financial trouble, from Japan in the 1990s to southern Europe in the 2000s. But there is no level that automatically triggers crises. Since most of China’s debts are held within the government-controlled bits of its economy (state-owned firms are the biggest debtors and state-owned banks their biggest creditors), the country has the means to avoid an acute crisis. It can, in effect, roll over bad loans as they come due or abstain from calling them in. However, although that spares the economy short-term pain, it leaves it with a chronic ailment. Ever more credit is needed to sustain growth. Loans that should have gone to sprightly companies with promising new ideas go instead to corporate zombies.
There are worrying signs that China is heading in this direction. In the six years before the global financial crisis, each yuan of new credit brought about five yuan of national output. In the six years since the crisis, that has fallen to just over three yuan. It is not hard to find examples of companies on life support that in other countries might have perished by now. In September China National Erzhong Group, which makes smelting equipment, received a bail-out from its parent. Investors in Sinosteel, a metals conglomerate, are now hoping for the same after it delayed payment on a bond this week.
…
Have commodities hit bottom?
Barron’s
Dec. 26, 2015 12:01 a.m. ET
Commodities: No Rebound in Sight
Hurt by ample supplies, a China slowdown, and a firming dollar, metals and oil had a particularly rough year. Don’t expect much change in 2016.
By Manuela Badawy
Bloomberg Commodity Index
The commodities malaise of 2015 will continue in the new year. Precious and industrial metals will probably fall further in the first half of 2016, pressured by rising global supply, weak Chinese demand, and an appreciating dollar.
Prices of precious metals dropped more than 11% in 2015, and industrial metals lost more than a quarter of their value, pummeled by the strength of the dollar and concerns of a slowdown in China, the world’s largest consumer of commodities, as global production continues to rise.
Investors and analysts expect prices to remain constrained in 2016, given that supply cuts will be required to balance the market and demand growth from China will probably remain sluggish. “The downside risks to metals-demand growth next year are still elevated, as inventory overhangs and fragile recoveries in metals-intensive economies keep us cautious,” says JPMorgan Chase, which forecasts copper and nickel to depreciate 11% and 23%, respectively, over the next two years, while aluminum and zinc will drop intothe $1,300 per metric ton in the first half of 2016.
Aluminum traded at $1,527.5, zinc at $1,539, and nickel at $8,685 per metric ton Thursday on the London Metals Exchange. Copper closed at $2,112 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In 2015, crude-oil prices crashed more than 28%, agricultural commodities dropped 11%, copper thudded 26%, and gold and silver shed 9% and 8%, respectively, of their value as the dollar continued to appreciate.
“The most important debate of 2016 may be the direction of the U.S. dollar,” Morgan Stanley analysts say. The greenback rose to a 13-year high against a basket of currencies in December on the back of modest U.S. economic growth, falling unemployment, and a small pickup in inflation. These factors had been critical for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates, which it did in mid-December for the first time in almost a decade.
…
I think it is getting close to the bottom. I am going to start dollar cost averaging into VGENX and/or VDE in 2016.
Are you trying to clue in Wall Street folks that marks are waiting to buy at “their” prices?
I am not sure what you mean PB. I don’t have much interest in WS folks, I just think energy may oversold and it could be a good time to start buying. No one really knows the future, which is why I stay diversified and use dollar cost averaging!
go long commodities as the dollar bubble implodes.
If you started dollar cost averaging at the highest prices of commodities in the late 70s you would be well above your NAV now. Or at the highest price probably of the 90s.
Dollar cost averaging is for those whose full time profession leaves them little time to do market timing. It frees you up to be a more valuable part of society and profit from the blind role of being a capitalist.
“Dollar cost averaging is for those whose full time profession leaves them little time to do market timing.”
If there’s one overriding take home from”The Big Short” movie, aside from the obvious point that Wall Street is a den of fraud which operates as a club above the rule of law, it’s that market timing is even a tremendous gamble for full-time professional investors. You have to admire folks whose Housing Bubble insights and convictions were so strong that they stuck with their bets through a period when they were losing and others had given up the faith to win big at the end of the game. But the movie gives little clue about how many other folks bet against the Bubble and lost, due to less than ideal timing or other factors.
The biggest problem I have with the movie is the superficial treatment of the causes of the Housing Bubble, suggestive of the oft-recited rephrain, “Noone could have seen it coming!”
If the Big Shorts guys could see it, then how could an army of Wall Street analysts have all missed it? Makes no sense whatever…
“If the Big Shorts guys could see it, then how could an army of Wall Street analysts have all missed it? Makes no sense whatever…”
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it.” —Upton Sinclaire
Try that Upton Sinclair quote on a former New Century, Lehman Brothers, Countrywide, Washington Mutual or Bear Stearns employee.
“Try that Upton Sinclair quote on a former New Century, Lehman Brothers, Countrywide, Washington Mutual or Bear Stearns employee.”
In 2007 at a Thanksgiving Dinner in California I tried to engage a Dean Witter stock broker about their leverage ratio moving to more than 33:1, which was likely based on dubious assets. He flat-out refused to talk about it.
Falling prices Jingle_Fraud. Falling prices.
i spent a whole $4 on Christmas gas to see my family yesterday…is that some sort of a cheapo record?
You beat me by $7.20. I paid $11.20 for a round trip airline ticket from Orange County to Portland, Oregon to visit a relative over Christmas.
I used frequent flier miles.
How much are the tolls to use the bridges and tunnels in the NYC area?
When I was a young (1960’s), the toll across the Throgs Neck and Whitestone Bridges was 25 cents. I imagine it’s at least 5 bucks by now.
The UK is set to become the best-performing economy in western Europe next year, and is likely to overtake powerhouses Germany and Japan in the 2030s, a report says.
The World Economic League Table from think tank the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), said the UK’s rise up the world rankings would be due to the strength of its IT and software industries as well as its culturally diverse workforce.
The UK is currently the fifth-largest economy in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP) worth $US3 trillion ($A4 trillion) this year, behind Germany at $US3.3 trillion, and Japan in third spot at $US4.1 trillion.
The US remains the richest country in the world with a GDP worth $US18 trillion, followed by China at $US11.4 trillion
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-forecast-lead-european-economies-032815605.html
I think I can safely predict, this prediction will be a load of rubbish; keeps them in a job I suppose. They always seem to forget that
‘Events, dear boy, events’ ”
occur.
as well as its culturally diverse workforce.
I thought that was a bad thing.
“I thought that was a bad thing.”
Why is that? Why did you think it was a bad thing?
Mr. Trump told me so.
Racial identity group political pimps, your day has come.
China’s top leaders wrapped up a key three-day meeting yesterday by endorsing a slew of measures to revive the country’s ailing economy, from expanding fiscal deficits to cutting excess capacity and boosting property demand.
The measures were part of a plan approved by state leaders, provincial party bosses as well as state company executives at an annual economic work conference in Beijing.
Over the three days, President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Keqiang and other leaders examined ways to bolster short-term growth while not undermining long-term sustainability.
The authorities will help rural residents buy properties in towns and cities, and encourage real estate developers to cut prices, according to a summary released by Xinhua. Restrictions on home ownership would be revoked.
The country’s proactive fiscal policies would be “more forceful” and its monetary policy more flexible next year, the statement said. The fiscal deficit ratio also needed to be raised gradually. The government should lower operating costs by cutting taxes and social security contributions.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/1893785/home-ownership-heart-plan-revive-economy
“Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,”
By Mother Goose
Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall;
All the king’s horses and all the king’s men
Couldn’t put Humpty together again.
“The authorities will help rural residents buy properties in towns and cities, and encourage real estate developers to cut prices, according to a summary released by Xinhua. Restrictions on home ownership would be revoked.”
It’s a hair-of-the-dog hangover cure for a real estate bust…made in the USA.
Moscow and Beijing have signed agreements on the control of grain quality, which technically open the Chinese market to Russian grain.
Russian food safety watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor and the Chinese government body in charge of quality control signed two food safety documents on Russian wheat, maize, rapeseed, soybean and rice supplies at a ceremony in Beijing.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/1892518/china-russia-open-markets-grain-agreements
Not great news for US farmers.
Or Canadian grain farmers.
Given that the midwest Oglala aquifer is being sucked dry, the beginning of the end of the midwestern US “breadbasket” is approaching anyway.
What I do find humorous here is the Chinese, who live in toxic central, are concerned with the quality of Russian grain.
Regardless of the water table dropping, we MUST continue the corn to ethanol boondoggle.
I hope that any of my friends here who care about such things had a wonderful Christmas and enjoyed the cheer of family, food and drink.
In my family, and from what I gather from most families, it’s the women folk who are all into the “cheer of family”.
For the men folk these gatherings tend to be pains is the asses.
+1
Thank you, Blue and same to you. We had a nice, quiet and enjoyable time yesterday.
How are things up there on the lakes?
Excellent here, thanks.
Short sleeve weather was nice while it lasted!
Combo
F.O.O.D. -The gatherings are usually food feasts. Men like good food. Prime Rib or other such red meat treats, like Tri-Tip. Haven’t met a man yet, that asked for a healthy holiday feast.
So Ca is freak’n cold this morning.
“Home for the Holidays
“Tips for overcoming holiday anxiety and stress.”
“’There’s this idea that holiday gatherings with family are supposed to be joyful and stress-free,’ says Ken Duckworth, MD, medical director of the National Alliance on Mental Illness. ‘That’s not the case. Family relationships are complicated. But that’s doesn’t mean that the solution is to skip the holidays entirely.’”
http://www.webmd.com/balance/stress-management/features/home-for-the-holdays-stress-tips
Family relationships are complicated. But that’s doesn’t mean that the solution is to skip the holidays entirely.’”
It’s why god invented alcohol.
Ha ha!
I was home alone last year for Christmas in Phoenix. The only negative vibes I felt were wondering what people thought about me preferring to be alone. Really enjoyed going through old photos and digitizing them.
I think someone could franchise a mobile business opportunity involving digitizing photos for old people, come to their home pull out the albums and scan onsite so they are never lost or have to be divided up after death. Everybody gets a digital copy.
Great idea!
I’m the proverbial got lots of ideas but too lazy to put in practice person. Another thing I think could be huge would be a line of simplified electronics with much larger icons and very basic operation for music, photos, video and video calls/FaceTime. An iPad for granddad or grandma who hasn’t kept up. The iPadG
Prime rib? Fetch me a couple bags of Cheetos too.
“So Ca is freak’n cold this morning.”
Look at the Jetstream
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-surface-maps
Interesting read …
“Scientists Create the Superman of Metals”
ttp://www.newsweek.com/scientists-create-superman-metals-409031
Ooooops …
Try this:
http://www.newsweek.com/scientists-create-superman-metals-409031
When oil producing countries sell there oil they generally get dollars. Then they usually convert some of those dollars back into there own currencies and then reserve some generally in treasuries.
If the value of the dollar is high then they get more bang for their buck when converting to their currency.
If the value of the dollar is low then they will get less of their own currency and thus need a higher price for the oil to compensate.
All of this dollar conversion stuff would be irrelevant if oil producing countries didn’t sell their oil for dollars.
“Under the new petrodollar system, the US guaranteed the survival of the House of Saud by providing a total commitment to its political and military security. This included a commitment to defend the House of Saud in case of war or warfare. In return, Saudi Arabia agreed to:
Use its dominant influence in OPEC to ensure that all global oil transactions would be conducted only in US dollars.
Invest a large amount of its oil revenue in US Treasury securities and use the interest income from those securities to pay US companies to modernize the infrastructure of Saudi Arabia
No dollars, no access to the world’s most important commodity. It’s a very compelling reason to hold your reserves in dollars.”
Everyone has bid up the dollar based on a fed tightening cycle. When rates go up generally the dollar goes up.
Rates cannot go very high cause the cost to service the 19 trillion in debt would skyrocket as treasuries are rolled over every year.
How do you short the dollar? Go long commodities my friends.
What makes you think commodities have bottomed? You seemed less sure about a week ago.
I’m not sure we are at a bottom but I am will to dollar cost average in and take a little risk that we are close. Great long term investment.
Bottom is a long way down Poet. A very long way down.
How do you invest long-term in commodities?
In NYC, Using Biological Pronouns for Transgenders is Now Illegal…
Louder With Crowder - December 26, 2015
Leftists like to divide people in to groups, tell one group they are oppressed and tell the other group they are intolerant bigots if they disagree. This year, the protected class du jour was transgenders, because thank you Caitlyn Jenner.
Naturally, there’s been an arms-race to see who can pander the fastest. Leading the charge, of course, is New York City…
New York City has warned landlords, employers and businesses they could be running afoul of the law by purposely calling a transgender woman “him” or “Mr.” when she prefers a female title and pronoun, or by barring her from using a women’s restroom.
New guidelines detail the legal protections of transgender and gender-nonconforming New Yorkers and what constitutes discrimination under the city’s Human Rights Law, the New York City Commission on Human Rights said on Monday.
Yes, you’ve read correctly. In New York City, it is now illegal to call someone by their actual gender instead of their preferred gender. You must take part in their delusional, alternate reality or face legal consequences.
First Amendment repealed?
“First Amendment repealed?”
Reinterpreted.
It is a “living document” after all, and it only means what the Supremes say it means,
I wonder how long until there is an epidemic of pimply faced nerds saying they’re girls and demanding access to the girls’ locker rooms after PE.
You must take part in their delusional, alternate reality or face legal consequences.
What are the legal consequences? Is there a link to a better source site than “Louder with Crowder”?
“Is there a link to a better source site than “Louder with Crowder”?
Gee I don’t know Mr. Science.
New York City Lays Out Transgender Protection On Dress Codes, Bathroom Use
The guidelines said dress codes requiring men to wear ties or women to wear skirts are discriminatory.
12/22/2015 01:12 pm ET
Reuters
Ellen Wulfhorst
NEW YORK (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - New York City has warned landlords, employers and businesses they could be running afoul of the law by purposely calling a transgender woman “him” or “Mr.” when she prefers a female title and pronoun, or by barring her from using a women’s restroom.
New guidelines detail the legal protections of transgender and gender-nonconforming New Yorkers and what constitutes discrimination under the city’s Human Rights Law, the New York City Commission on Human Rights said on Monday.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…/new-york-transgender-protections_56799028e4b0b958f6582ba9 - 220k -
“Gee I don’t know Mr. Science.”
Ooops, I said Mr.
Can they prosecute across state lines?
Thanks for almost providing a working link, phony, you’re really coming along.
We now see that the law applies to landlords, business owners, and employers, not everyone, so of course Louder with Crowder misinformed us when it says,
” it is now illegal to call someone by their actual gender instead of their preferred gender. You must take part in their delusional, alternate reality or face legal consequences.”
So calm down, your favorite form of political discourse, calling someone by the wrong pronoun, is still safe.
“We now see that the law applies to landlords, business owners, and employers,”
No, now you see.
Everyone else could see that in the Louder With Crowder article where it said…
“New York City has warned landlords, employers and businesses they could be running afoul of the law by purposely calling a transgender woman “him” or “Mr.”
What everyone else can see and understand is that rights are being taken away incrementally, not all at once.
In New York City, it is now illegal to call someone by their actual gender instead of their preferred gender.
So they were lying when they said that, without specifying that it only applied to licensed business owners and landlords, in the operations of their businesses. The whole thing is a simple outgrowth of the idea that you can’t operate a public business and discriminate in it.
Rest easy, you can still be an ass in private, or on the interwebs.
“gender-nonconforming New Yorkers”
It is ironic that the nonconformers want to force everyone else into conformity. Just sayin!
This should wipe out girl’s sports and scholarships.
Let’s say you are just a good male HS basketball player. You are a star in the girl’s leagues.
College Scholarships will rain down on you.
And all you need to say is a few magic words and have feelings…
Separate sports for girls are discriminatory and costly. To end discrimination and save Title IX expenses, all sports should be made coed, allowing girls and boys to compete on the same playing field.
Because there is no difference between girls and boys in a society without gender discrimination…
The people of Kansas are still waiting for the “trickle down”, without realizing they’ve already received it.
http://tinyurl.com/nuenhec
Such a deal……
-Rob the state highway fund to replace the revenue missing from the budget due to “letting people keep their money”
(”People” = top 10% of self-labeled “producers”)
-Refill the highway fund by issuing unlimited amounts of bonds
-Rob highway fund again in 2016.
(Of course, the official explanation is that they are “taking advantage of record low interest rates”)
-Continue until these idiots are run out of office. Which won’t be anytime soon, since (as one of the regular contributers has noted repeatedly) 95% of the population is stupid.
Quit bitching, you serfs. I’m sure your betters will figure out a way to spend that money. Usually in Colorado, California, NYC, Europe
So Boxing Day originated when the ruling elite and their children like Chelsea Clinton who were curious if they could care about [money] on some fundamental level but couldn’t, would give their servants the day after Christmas off because their services were required for the likes of Chelsea Clinton’s Christmas Day celebrations.
Boxing Day 2015: What is it and why do we celebrate it?
Why the day after Christmas is called Boxing Day in the UK and other interesting facts related to December 26th
By Cameron Macphail
4:05PM GMT 26 Dec 2015
Why is it called Boxing Day?
Also in Britain, on the day after Christmas Day, servants of the wealthy were given time off to visit their families because their services were required for the Christmas Day celebrations of their employers.
They were therefore allowed the following day for their own observance of the holiday and each servant would be handed a box to take home, containing gifts, bonuses and sometimes leftover food.
It was also customary for tradespeople to collect ‘Christmas boxes’ of presents or money on the first weekday after Christmas as thanks for good service throughout the year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/…/Boxing-Day-2015-What-is-it-and-why-do-we-celebrate-it.html -
Democrats have been telling me the gap between rich and poor has been growing for 100 years…
These were the good old days.
I doubt that. Democrats usually say that the 1950s and 1960s were the good old days, so inequality has been rising since the ’70s.
The Jet Set is heading to the slopes this weekend. Eagle County Regional has so many arrivals, they’ve started putting “ground holds” on airplanes that aren’t airborne yet.
http://tinyurl.com/h2hkvxe
Note: this list of “filed” aircraft arrivals DOES NOT include all of the aircraft whose “N” number has been “blocked” by owner/operator request. (Wouldn’t want the wretched refuse getting upset about his betters jetting off to the slopes, while he gets laid off/pay cuts/etc.)
“Note: this list of “filed” aircraft arrivals DOES NOT include all of the aircraft whose “N” number has been “blocked” by owner/operator request.”
What does this mean? What do you mean?
(Seriously, I am clueless.)
If I can figure this out correctly: Colorado ski country can’t handle that many landings. Therefore, smaller aircraft filled with “poors” booked from Kansas to Colorado is being held on the ground in Kansas, so that the aircraft booked from Kansas to Colorado filled with rich passengers can cut in line and take off first and land first.
The rich passengers are requesting that the Departure displays (or flight logs) don’t publicly show the serial number on the plane. If the “poors” knew it was the rich who were cutting in line, they would be very upset.
Selling a home in 2016? Here’s your need-to-know
Dan Caplinger, The Motley Fool 8:54 a.m. EST December 26, 2015
Selling a home can be a stressful experience, and it’s critically important to be aware of prevailing trends in the real-estate market and other financial considerations to keep in mind. If you expect to put your home on the block at some point in 2016, you’ll need to address the following issues and concerns to make sure that you make the best possible deal.
It’s a seller’s market …
Homeowners remember all too well the fallout that the housing bust had on real-estate prices. Even though most investors think of the financial crisis as having hit its peak in 2008 and early 2009, it took three more years for home prices to hit bottom. Yet since early 2012, prices have climbed higher, and the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is coming within spitting distance of matching its highs from 2006 and 2007.
Where you live is a key factor in determining just how much of a seller’s market you can expect. Hot markets like San Francisco have seen some housing-boom-era practices return to favor, with many reports of bidding wars that result in offers well above the asking price. By contrast, areas where economic prospects are less favorable have never fully recovered from the housing bust. The more lucrative a region’s economic future appears to be, the easier you can expect it to be to sell a home.
… but mortgages could get more expensive
One key factor in how much sellers receive for their homes is how much buyers can afford. Low mortgage rates have helped fuel price increases in recent years, but some now fear that with the Federal Reserve having begun a new cycle of rate increases, a move higher for mortgage rates could make homes less affordable.
So far, the tiny quarter-point boost that the Fed made in mid-December hasn’t pushed mortgage rates appreciably higher. Historically, though, tightening has generally led to increased rates on mortgage loans. Sellers need to be prepared for greater difficulty for prospective buyers trying to get financing.
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How is it that an entire nation is painted as a seller’s market? It’s only a matter of how much of a seller’s market it is in a particular area. Where I am located the seller’s market comes to a halt in the $250,000 and up range. That seems like a pretty healthy and staggering number to those who only make $24-28,000/year. The available fare for that price are resales with questionable upkeep, rarely updated and inconsistent neighborhoods.
Any piece of land which could sustain development is marketed/targeted at that end making even less available options for the same median households.
Throw in a limited rentals available and it’s not a wonder the food banks are so busy.
So is it a buyer’s market at $250,000+ or is that notion not recognized in the current marketing cycle?
The only operating market is at the $120k price point and that’s pushing it.
If you think you want to dump that shanty you better get slashin’ the price.
I respectfully ask for interpretation. I don’t possess the shorthand communication so many of you demonstrate.
I know what a price point is but need help with the context.
I don’t own anything to sell. Did that exercise 3 years ago.
Thanks
Straightforward. If it’s not priced in the $120k range, it’s not going to sell.
homes are an appreciating asset. get on board!
Falling housing prices Poet. Falling housing prices.
Salem, OR Housing Prices Crater 13% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/salem-or/market-trends/
Thanks
“How is it that an entire nation is painted as a seller’s market?”
It’s because the entire nation is a nation of dummies.
“Where I am located the seller’s market comes to a halt in the $250,000 and up range. That seems like a pretty healthy and staggering number to those who only make $24-28,000/year.”
The price of a house is not something you pay; the price of a house is something you commit yourself to paying. There is no way a $24-28,000/year dumbed-down puke can buy a house so he enlists the intervention of a lender to buy the house for him, and then he pays back the lender via HUGE portions of his monthly paycheck for thirty years or so.
And chances are excellent that the money the lender forks over for the transaction isn’t really his.
As I said, a nation of dummies.
Keep in mind that the highest bidder for the house gets the house, and also keep in mind the in a nation of totally dumbed-down dummies who all have access to borrowed money it will end up being the dumbest-of-the-dumb who will commit to paying the highest price, the dumbest price.
“Study Reveals Amazing Surge in Scientific Hype
“Scientists are touting their research far more aggressively than they once did, according to a new study.”
“These are tough times for scientists. As funding has flattened or declined, the competition for grants and glory has grown increasingly fierce. In response, many researchers are touting their work more aggressively.
“That is the implication of a new study by three biomedical Dutch researchers (to which communication scholar Matthew Nisbet drew my attention). The authors examined the frequency of 25 positive words—from “amazing” and “astonishing” to “unique” and “unprecedented”–in abstracts listed in the biomedical database PubMed between 1974 and 2014. Here is how they summarize their results in the British Medical Journal, BMJ:”
Read on …
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/study-reveals-amazing-surge-in-scientific-hype/
An article referenced in the above article:
“Why most published research papers are false”
http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
(Snip)
“… scientists may assume that results and their implications have to be exaggerated and overstated in order to get published… The consequences of this exaggeration are worrisome since it makes research a survival of the fittest: the person who is best able to sell their results might be the most successful. It is time for a new academic culture that rewards quality over quantity and stimulates researchers to revere nuance and objectivity.”
A nation of totally dumbed-down broke-assed losers …
Ten reasons you will never - NEVER - get out of debt.
http://m.kiplinger.com/slideshow/credit/T025-S001-reasons-you-will-never-get-out-of-debt/index.html?rid=SYN-yahoo&rpageid=13856
OMG, people are so stupid …
Reason 1: You don’t now how much you owe.
Bahahahahahaha … that’s okay the lender will be sure to remind you (and remind you and remind you and remind you …)
Reason 2: You only pay the minimum.
Which means you are destined to pay forever.
Reason 3: Your mortgage is too big.
This means you go visit your banker and ask him abut doing a HELOC
Reason 4: You took out too many student loans.
You should borrow more money so as to go back to school and get an advanced degree.
Reason 5: You can’t say no to your kids.
You should look up W.C. Fields’ response to the question “Do you like children?”
Reason 6: You don’t have money for emergencies.
This is when you will decide to place your friendly Payday Loan Company on speed dial.
Reason 7: You feel a sense of entitlement.
This sense of entitlement is the only sense you will ever have.
Reason 8: Your car loan is too long.
And this makes me happy if this long car loan of yours in some way involves me. I suggest you refinance.
Reason 9: You rack up late fees.
Bahahahahahahaha … if you do this then you are really and truly stupid and I would like you to come visit my bank and share with me a cup of coffee (I’ll buy!) and possibly allow me to introduce to you what I like to call “The Dotted Line Special”.
Reason 10: Your interest rates are too high.
Again, you should come visit me in my bank and ask me about The Dotted Line Special.
Too much debt - images
https://www.google.com/search?q=too+much+debt&biw=1360&bih=643&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj-mLrZgfvJAhUI8GMKHQxaBCsQ_AUICCgD