The Housing Bubble

DEVELOPING
News
Jan 14 2016, 4:00 am ET
Powerball Jackpot: Winning Tickets in $1.5 Billion Lottery Sold in Calif., Fla., Tenn.
by Phil Helsel

History’s largest-ever lottery jackpot has at least three lucky winners.

Three states — California, Florida and Tennessee — sold winning tickets for the monster $1.58 billion Powerball lottery, according to California lottery spokesman Russ Lopez,

Six numbers — 08, 27, 34, 04, 19 — and Powerball 10 were drawn Wednesday night in the historic lottery event.

The three winners will split the colossal jackpot resulting in $528.8 million prize for each, according to officials.

One of the winning tickets was sold at a 7-Eleven in Chino Hills, California, officials said.

Local TV helicopters captured images of a large crowd of people gathering at the 7-Eleven, with crowds chanting “Chino Hills! Chino Hills!”
…

Renters win the lottery every day of their lives.

People with mortgages have a lifetime of incalculable losses.

I won a jackpot by dollar cost averaging over fifteen years into the S&P 500 index fund.

Record High Lottery Prize Brings Alabamians to Florida to Buy Tickets
January 13, 2016
by Caitlyn Cline

Even though Alabama legislature is still debating on having a lottery in Alabama, that is not stopping many Alabamians from playing the game. Currently the jackpot is set at a record $1.5 billion dollars.

When Rhett Joyner took over R & R State Line Lotto, he never imagined most of his revenue would come from out of state ticket sales.

“Most of our business is Alabama. I would say 80 percent of our business is residents from Alabama,” Joyner says. The line in the lotto store stretches out the front door and into the parking lot, something Joyner says happens daily since the Powerball numbers increased.

“We’re so close to so many small communities, that it’s just, you know, a drive over,” Joyner says. “It’s six miles from the Alabama state line.”

Nearly every car in the parking lot sports a Alabama license plate, and most players drive miles just for a chance to win.

“When I lived in Mobile, we would go to the Florida line fairly often, but since moving to Wilcox County, which is in the middle of the state, I haven’t played lotto in years,” says Virginia Dailey. Dailey might not think she is a professional player, but she won a hundred dollars on a one dollar scratch off ticket while in Joyner’s store.
The odds of winning the lottery are one in 292.2 million, but that has not stopped anyone from stopping in to buy a ticket at R & R State Line Lotto.

“You know, if you really think about it, why not? You know, you can’t win if you don’t play,” Joyner says with a laugh.
…

Google is amazingly smart!

For an example, ask it to calculate the number of different possible Powerball number combinations by entering this on the search line:

(69 choose 5)*(26 choose 1)

Is it best to just sell everything, or to ride the falling knife all the way to the ground?

Why it’s wrong to sell everything when markets fall
By Anora Mahmudova
Published: Jan 13, 2016 2:56 p.m. ET
‘Too many variables affect the price in the short term’
Timing markets correctly rarely works over time

The drumbeat of bearishness is reaching a crescendo. Scary, attention-grabbing headlines have become the norm in a market overwhelmed by fear after U.S. stocks kicked off 2016 with the worst calendar-year beginning ever. And it isn’t as if 2015’s returns were anything to be cheerful about.

Regular readers on MarketWatch, for example, have been subjected to headlines ranging from it isn’t a good time to buy to the more extreme calls to sell everything.

But for average investors with a retirement account or 401(k) plan, those recommendations aren’t exactly helpful, according to Michael Batnick, who runs financial blog The Irrelevant Investor and is director of research at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

“For a lay person, the ‘sell everything’ type of stories have no value and are pure entertainment and should be taken as such,” Batnick said.

In a recent blog post, Batnick attempts to put the current rout in the market — which he admits may turn deeper — into a historical context, explaining why short-term fluctuations should be ignored.

In a chart, dating back to 1926, Batnick shows annual returns for the S&P 500 (SPX, -2.50%) and points to three distinct secular bear markets. A secular bear market is a trend when prices fall or move sideways for years or even decades to regain their last peak.
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European stocks set to hit 1-year low as oil, China spook investors
By Sara Sjolin
Published: Jan 14, 2016 5:17 a.m. ET

European stock markets slumped on Thursday, as investors continued to fret about the ongoing selloff in oil prices and choppy Chinese markets.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index (SXXP, -3.16%) dropped 2.5% to 336.06, setting it on track for the lowest close since January 2015, according to FactSet data.

The steep loss comes after the pan-European benchmark mustered gains over the two previous sessions on the back of calmer markets in China.

“Investors have once again realized that nothing has changed and a bounce wasn’t really warranted,” said Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, in a note.

“A depressed oil price remains hindered by global oversupply and the prospect of it getting worse as Iran returns to market, while China jitters continue to shake everything from commodities to financials,” he added.
…

Everything is overpriced and everybody knows it. Everyone is just waiting the dog whistle to get out ahead of the suckers.

The only thing inflating asset prices now is flight capital from places where the collapse is greater.

How much do you believe deflation? Are you willing to buy and lock in a 2 percent dividend yield and a 2 percent bond yield — minus taxes? Or do you think you are entitled to more, and will wait it out until you can get it?

Dang…the Dow is dropping again. Whatever happened to the January effect?

Finance
Oil price crash means petrol could become cheaper than bottled water
Petrol prices could head back to their lowest level in seven years
By Mehreen Khan
12:01AM GMT 14 Jan 2016
Brent crude prices fall below $30 for the first time since April 2004 and could make fuel cheaper than water

Petrol will soon cost less than bottled water as the relentless decline in oil prices sends fuel down to 86p a litre, it has been claimed.

Brent crude fell to below $30 a barrel for the first time since 2004 on Wednesday evening - and has fallen by more 73pc since reaching highs of $115 last summer.

Motoring group RAC said pump prices now could fall back to levels last seen in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2009, if the commodity plunges to as low as $10, a forecast made by Standard Chartered bank earlier this week.
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Oil wavers on jitters over U.S. inventories, Iran supply
By Biman Mukherji and Georgi Kantchev
Published: Jan 14, 2016 5:55 a.m. ET
Don’t be surprised to see Brent hit $25: analyst
Reuters
Gas field in Asalouyeh Seaport, north of Persian Gulf,

Oil prices switched between gains and losses on Thursday amid concerns about swelling U.S. inventories and the return of Iranian barrels to the market.

By midmorning in Europe, Brent was up 0.3% at $30.40 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange, having fallen as low as $29.73 a barrel earlier in the session. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures were trading up 0.7% at $30.69 a barrel.

This week, both contracts breached the key $30 a barrel level for the first time in more than a decade.

Analysts say international sanctions against Tehran’s nuclear program could be lifted as soon as this weekend. That would pave the way for an increase of Iranian oil exports, which would add to the persistent oversupply of crude around the globe.

“Most of the bearishness is coming from worries over Iranian sanctions being lifted,” said Daniel Ang, an analyst with Phillip Futures. “I won’t be surprised if prices continue falling toward $25 per barrel.”
…

Business Standard
More bad news for ocean trade
Aditi Divekar | Mumbai
Jan 14, 2016 12:15 AM IST
More-bad-news-for-ocean-trade
A fresh plunge on the main global index of the cost of moving major raw materials by sea has potential implications for trade.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) slid to a level of 402 on Wednesday, a new low, and this might stop much of trade across the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific market, say observers. There could be a strong aversion, for instance, to long-term deals.

The BDI is an economic indicator issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange.

“The trade climate is full of insecurity, as charterers are not sure if the price at which they have negotiated is the right low price,” Kiran Kamat, owner of Link Shipping & Management Systems, a leading chartering and shipping company, told Business Standard. “Charterers are unable to take a call, leading to last-minute back out (from deals), even if ship-owners are being flexible.”

The index began falling from early August last year, when China initiated a devaluing of its currency. From a high of 1,222, it has lost two-thirds in five months. Wednesday’s level is a three-decade low; the all-time high of 11,793 was on May 20, 2008. Since then, the index has been volatile, being down for much longer than thought likely.
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The Baltic Dry
Don’t Lie

ft dot com > Comment >
Columnists
January 14, 2016 4:35 pm
Shipping’s globalisation woes
Gillian Tett

- For sign of how the tectonic plates of the global economy are shifting, look at the Baltic Dry Index

- A general view of containers on a container ship at the Port of Qingdao, eastern China’s Shandong province, China

This week, the eyes of investors have been fixed on tumbling oil prices. Little wonder: with oil now costing as little as $30 a barrel, 15 per cent down since the start of the year, energy markets are signalling trouble ahead — particularly given the continuing turmoil in China.

For another sign of how the tectonic plates are shifting in the global economy, try looking at the Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of shipping raw materials such as coal, metal and fertilisers across the globe.

Normally, this does not attract much public attention; after all, in an era where investors are obsessed with capital flows — or the latest digital gadgets — it seems rather retro to focus on the humdrum details of harbours and containers.

But right now, the behaviour of that Baltic index is almost as dramatic as those oil prices. This week, the index fell below 400 for the first time since records began in 1985, after several weeks of steady declines. Last summer the index was well above 1,000, in 2010 it was around 4,000. So if you are gripped by a desire to dispatch a cargo of coal, cement or oil across the seas, it will currently cost you less than it has for at least 30 years.

Now, it would be nice to think that this is just another sign of our modern technological revolution. But the key reason why shipping prices are falling so fast is that the patterns of modern trade and global growth are not behaving in 2016 as western and emerging market financiers might have expected, or as they did during earlier booms.

Over the past decade, shipping companies everywhere from Greece to China have expanded their dry bulk capacity. They did this partly because it was cheap for them to borrow money. New investors, such as western private equity funds, have also piled in, seeking innovative ways to deploy their cash.

The other reason for the boom was that it was widely assumed that global trade would keep expanding. Until recently, this assumption did not seem unreasonable. In the decade before 2008, global trade rose by an average of 7 per cent a year, faster than global GDP growth, because countries such as China were booming and western businesses were creating a web of cross-border supply chains.

History, however, does not unfold in predictable ways. As the World Bank described in a sobering report last week, global trade growth has slowed down sharply in recent years to around 3 per cent, or roughly the pace of global GDP expansion, and it is slowing further now.
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Baltic Dry Index falls to 383, down 11 points.
in Dry Bulk Market 14/01/2016

Today, Thursday, January 14 2016, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 11 points, reaching 383 points.

Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Thursday, January 14 2016, when the index dropped to 383 points.

Source: Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

Realtors are liars.

Markets
The Quiet Side of China’s Market Intervention
In addition to spending billions on stocks, Chinese officials quietly cajole companies to issue statements of support
By Shen Hong
Updated Jan. 13, 2016 9:11 p.m. ET

As Chinese markets tanked last week, China Inc. appeared to be rallying to their support.

At least 75 Chinese companies issued statements during the past week and a half, saying their biggest shareholders would be holding on to their stakes in order to protect investor interests.
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‘For luxury-home developers and brokers in Miami and Manhattan who are already contending with slumping prices and slowing demand…’

They’ve already milked the money-laundering fools and it’s time to shut the door.

‘Demand for Manhattan’s most-expensive homes is slipping while apartments from a high-end construction boom aimed at wealthy investors pile up on the market. Resale prices for the top 20 percent of the market peaked in February and have fallen every month since then.’

Just the other day it was reported that Manhattan condos it an all time high. Problem is, the price was simply closing on super expensive new units that had been closed months before they were finished.

‘The most expensive completed sale of an apartment in New York City, the $100.5 million purchase of a penthouse atop Extell Development Co.’s One57, was to a buyer known only as P89-90 LLC.’

‘The New York Times last year examined the increasing use of anonymous shell companies by global buyers seeking havens for cash. Among the findings were that 64 percent of condos at Manhattan’s Time Warner Center were owned by shell companies, and that at least 16 foreigners who have owned in the building have been targeted by government investigations. Secret buyers included former Russian senators, a Greek businessman who was arrested as part of a corruption sweep in his home country and a financier linked to the prime minister of Malaysia, according to the paper. Nationwide, almost half of the most-expensive homes are bought through shell companies, the Times reported.’

parachute sales must be doing well.

I don’t like to take shots at Abq Dan, especially since he’s not around and also, other than the China cheerleading, I rather liked the guy.

However, I do have to say that one of the funniest comments on this blog was yours the day China had its first major hiccup. Dan had posted a comment and your response was something like “Good morning, Dan, you’re up rather early today, it’s —oh, dear..”, followed by a link to the story on the Chinese stock market. I’m paraphrasing, but it did make me laugh.

Always felt that China was a paper tiger that was going to implode sooner or later. The sad thing to me is all that environmental wreckage they’re going to be left with. And for what?

‘Some compared the regulators’ action to closing a casino early because gamblers were holding bad cards.’

They nailed it!

so…. did you short China and profit from your wisdom?

John Kerry apologizing to Iran = Obama is a p*ssy, therefore a trillion dollar neocon war is needed.

Good point. (Obliquely made as it is.)

Many American neo-cons are against the Iran Nuclear Deal because it can lesson the tensions between Iran and The USA - thus making war less probable. It looks like it did just that a couple days ago.

Sign of warmer relations : Iran releases 10 United States Navy sailors

http://diplomat.so/2016/01/13/sign-of-warmer-relations-irans-releases-10-united-states-navy-sailors/

Tehran,Iran ( Agencies + DIPLOMAT.SO)- Iran’s release of 10 United States Navy sailors on Wednesday, less than 24 hours after they were detained on the Persian Gulf, is being hailed in both countries as a sign that their relations have evolved since the signing of the nuclear accord last summer.

I don’t think we be going to war with Iran but I don’t think we need to be groveling at their feet either.

buying a house is like playing powerball thx to wall street.

GOOD !-dodd frank is a disaster
I’d take Glass Stegal
better yet deregulate and let weak hands fail

Still waiting on Sarbanes-Oxley to work. Throw out accounting rules, why not.

Your Republican Congress at work.

Oxide,

At least in this case, a law needs to be passed in order to soften Dodd Frank. In most cases, the lobbyists simply push the SEC rules in a direction to soften the intent of the law.

Instead of having an open debate and being specific on the regulations, the chickensh*t Democrats who wrote Dodd Frank put the law in general terms which then required hundreds of new rules to be written by the SEC, all of which are subject to comment from the public (ie. the lobbyists).

As such, we have massive amounts of new ineffective regulation. Awesome.

As Chris Dodd said himself: “What do they expect me to write, a 100,000-page bill? This is far beyond the capacity, the expertise, the knowledge of a Congress”

Exactly.

So instead of doing the hard work of putting their detailed intent in writing, they allowed the SEC…ahem, the lobbyists…to write the detail of the regulations.

Waterworld!

and martians could land any day.

Sneak preview from the documentary of Dr Matthew Skinner’s research.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6l1GvDWtccI - 169k -

“Our eyes would even become more like cats, so we could see in the murky gloom of seas and rivers and our lungs would shrink as we became used to using artificial tanks to breathe underwater.

“’Regular underwater foraging would lead to the evolution of longer fingers and toes which would then likely develop ‘webbed’ interconnecting skin to enable easier swimming,” said Dr Skinner.

“’We may evolve a tapetum lucidum, an additional layer in the retina, like cat’s eyes, that would improve our vision in low light conditions such as underwater.

“Due to the cold environment of being submerged in water regularly, we would maintain a layer of ‘baby fat’ into adulthood as an insulator.”

Warmists gonna warm.

could evolve to have webbed hands and feet and less body hair so they could move quickly through the water.

Cause those sea lions and seals, they definitely have less body hair.

LOLZ.

Screw webbed feet, I want a tail.

BTW, I’ve posted this before, a relative who has toiled in the tabloid industry for years once told me that it is fairly reliable lore in the industry that celebrity deaths tend to come in three’s, so when one major or semi major name expires, all the reporters are put on alert, sometimes even recalled from vacation or time off, in order to provide the coverage.

So, Bowie, Rickman, I guess we’ll have to wait and see if another one bites the dust.

Severus Snape dead and gone…a sad day at Hogworts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry.

Soros owns Hillary.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/07/02/billionaire-george-soros-director-steven-spielberg-among-top-donors-to-hillary-clintons-super-pac/

Soros touched you in a personal area!

New York Times real journalists provide a narrative:

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/01/14/world/europe/a-climate-of-fear-widens-divisions-in-europes-migrant-crisis.html

Every immigrant, migrant, refugee, dreamer, etc will grow up to be doctors and astronauts. Every single one of them, my betters tell me. Getting raped = checking your privilege.

Forward.

Obama’s favorite oligarch accused of being a slum lord? I am shocked, shocked! And I’m sure it is purely coincidental that “connected” TBTF financial firms got trillions in printing-press Bernanke Bux to buy up distressed housing from FBs so they could turn around and rent back to those same FBs.

If you like your crony capitalism, you can keep your crony capitalism…especially since Hillary will ramp it up into turbo mode.

Invade the world, invite the world.

It’s as American as Pizza and Burritos.

Wetters gonna wet.

I wonder how Larry Kudlow’s run for Senate is doing.

I would expect the DNC to fund better temporary detention conditions for their future votes-for-benefits entitlement bloc.

Was listening on the radio to some SJW whining about how Obama is the “Deporter in Chief” and has deported more people than Dubya did. Then on another news segment they were whining about non citizen veterans being deported after they committed a crime.

Everyone seems to think they have the right to live here (and join the FSA)

What if no one (other than cry bully SJW’s) cares about the narrative and ignores it? Does HuffPo or the NYT still control it?

Bowie’s the kind of guy you’d run out of town if you the darn government would get off your back and respect your freedom, right goon?

As far as young SJW’s are concerned, his music is from the “olds” generation and they don’t care about it. All that they care about is his sexuality.

One thing about David Bowie - he had a great sense of fashion. Well dressed up to nearly the end. He posed for a picture in a suit and Fedora with a big smile just three days before his death.

Robert Palmer also was well into fashion.

Maybe that’s part of the key to being a well remembered star - to look very decent, healthy, clean even up to the last breath.

Real egoists are too good for having a leader. Real egoists have the stones to rule themselves.

No Trump, no Sanders, no Hillary, no Jeb, no Cruz, no rulers. Just rulz.

“I could care about you but then who’s looking out for me…?”

A cute Primeling! Congratulations.

Congrats! His/her costs will be contained.

Adorable. He or she?

Nothing short of BEAAAUUUUTIFULLLL!!!!

That’s a keeper

Congrats

Congrats!

OMG how cute! Congratulations!

Awww. Many congrats, Primey! Hope you and baby Primette have the best times evah!

A beaut!

when hookers are struggling you know the economy sucks.

I’d rather see Trump ride Cruz on being a Goldman Sachs puppet (following in the Obama tradition - Goldman was his #2 campaign contributed) and being AWOL in the fight to rein in the Fed.

Dan’s man Ted…

Politics
Ted Cruz Didn’t Report Goldman Sachs Loan in a Senate Race
By MIKE McINTIRE
JAN. 13, 2016
Ted and Heidi Cruz, after he won the runoff for the Republican nomination for a Senate seat from Texas in July 2012. Credit Johnny Hanson/Houston Chronicle, via Associated Press

As Ted Cruz tells it, the story of how he financed his upstart campaign for the United States Senate four years ago is an endearing example of loyalty and shared sacrifice between a married couple.

“Sweetheart, I’d like us to liquidate our entire net worth, liquid net worth, and put it into the campaign,” he says he told his wife, Heidi, who readily agreed.

But the couple’s decision to pump more than $1 million into Mr. Cruz’s successful Tea Party-darling Senate bid in Texas was made easier by a large loan from Goldman Sachs, where Mrs. Cruz works. That loan was not disclosed in campaign finance reports.
…

We’re not in Brazil Lola. And neither are you.

The Brazil Peso is worthless.

The man has Wall Street AND Jesus on his side! Trump is toast.

Sean Bean: British people can’t believe ‘buffoon’ Donald Trump could be President
The Sheffield native weighed in on what Brits get wrong about Americans and vice versa
Olivia Blair
20 hours ago
Bean has a career spanning 20 years Joshua Blanchard/Getty Images

Sean Bean has explained how many British people feel about Donald Trump to Americans.

When appearing on Larry King Now, the actor and host discussed Trump who is still currently leading the GOP candidate polls.

After being asked by King what British people get wrong about Americans, Bean said one major misconception centres around the real estate mogul.

“I don’t think British people can believe that this buffoon is a prospective American president,” he said.

He then went on to explain the petition which garnered over half a million signatures suggesting to ban Trump from the UK following his call to ban all Muslim immigration to the US.
…

Watch Tara and the Trumplings sing of their love for Dear Leader:

Good lord, 9 year old War Cheerleaders. It figures.

Expect Tonight’s Debate to Be All “Bomb the Hell Out of Them,” All the Time

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/01/14/without_rand_paul_expect_tonight_s_debate_to_be_all_bomb_the_hell_out_of.html

Fox Business Networks’ decision to drop Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul from the main stage at Thursday night’s Republican debate, as well as Paul’s decision not to participate in the undercard event, has eliminated the sole dissenting voice from what could be called the “bomb the shit of them” consensus in the Republican field.

The libertarian senator’s isolationist (though he rejects the term) foreign-policy views stand out from the rest of the field…..

Trump bites his fart bubbles in the bathtub.

Yes, but Hillary has a secret weapon. 47% of ‘Muricans are receiving some sort of gub’mint benefits, and 95% of the electorate are stupid. That pretty much clinches it for Her Essence of Snake Oil.

Hillary is in race to make Trump look good.

Obama didn’t think she should be President.

Proving again that American voters are morons…

This is straight-up influence peddling, something our resident HBB progressives, who are blind in the left eye, refuse to acknowledge.

Mafia Blocks, Ben Jones, Phony Scandals And Donald Trump live in your empty skull, rent free.

The oil market
$20 is the new $40
Why the oil price has plunged
Jan 16th 2016 | From the print edition
Timekeeper

SINCE the new year, the price of oil has surprised even the most bearish punters, plunging by 18%. On January 12th West Texas Intermediate (WTI), America’s benchmark, briefly dipped below $30 a barrel, its lowest level since 2003. The next day an incipient rally was undone by the news that American stocks of crude oil and petroleum products had reached 1.3 billion barrels, a new record. Firms are hunkering down. BP this week announced hefty job cuts; Petrobras, Brazil’s state-controlled oil firm, slashed planned investment.

Some blame factors other than supply and demand for turning increasingly bearish. For instance, Standard Chartered, a bank, said oil might need to fall as low as $10 a barrel before speculators concede that “matters had gone too far”. But it’s mostly guesswork. Such is the level of uncertainty that American derivatives contracts tied to deliveries in April imply an oil price of anything from $25 to $56 a barrel, according to official number-crunchers.

Neil Atkinson of the International Energy Agency (IEA), a forecasting outfit, finds lots in the physical oil market to be bearish about—particularly regarding consumption, which was one of the few factors supporting prices last year. The sell-off in oil in the past fortnight has occurred concurrently with a slide in the Chinese stockmarket and the yuan, which some investors think reflects weakness in China’s economy and hence in demand for oil. Though Mr Atkinson acknowledges that possibility, he thinks this risk is overplayed: figures on January 13th showed China imported a record 6.7m barrels a day (b/d) of oil in 2015.

The trouble, though, is that apart from India and a wobbly China, demand is not looking promising anywhere this year. Europe is unlikely to see a repeat of its relatively strong oil-demand growth in 2015. Although America’s economy continues to grow, tightening fuel-efficiency standards cap the upside. Drivers in the Middle East, where fuel use rose last year, are more likely to keep their cars off the road after their governments raised petrol prices or eliminated fuel subsidies altogether to shore up public finances. “There are now considerable uncertainties about oil-demand growth globally,” Mr Atkinson says.
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