Bits Bucket for January 15, 2016
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The Housing Bubble
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Will 2016 be the year when the bear mauled the bull?
China stocks sell off, enter a bear market
Published: Jan 15, 2016 3:14 a.m. ET
Shanghai index drops 20% from its recent high, hit on Dec. 22
Bloomberg News
Australia’s energy sector has been hammered in the past year.
By Chao Deng
China’s main stock benchmark entered a bear-market Friday, following a deep afternoon selloff that dragged markets in the rest of the region lower.
The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP, -3.55%) fell 3.55% to 2,900.97. The index has fallen 20% from its recent high, the definition of a bear market, reached on Dec. 22.
Elsewhere, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI, -1.50%) was down 1.4%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (XJO, -0.34%) fell 0.3% and South Korea’s Kospi (SEU, -1.11%) slipped 1.1%.
Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average (NIK, -0.54%) was down 0.5%.
Traders and analysts attributed the sharp selloff to a Chinese state-run media outlet’s report that some Chinese banks were no longer accepting stocks as collateral for loans. The Chinese bank regulator didn’t immediately return a call for comment.
The prospect that liquidity could be drying up raised concerns among already-nervous investors about the outlook for the market, despite a rebound the previous day.
If banks have stopped accepting loans as collateral “it will further tighten liquidity in the market and create panic selling,” said Steven Leung, director at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong. “The news is very confusing.”
…
The oil market
$20 is the new $40
Why the oil price has plunged
Jan 16th 2016 | From the print edition
Timekeeper
SINCE the new year, the price of oil has surprised even the most bearish punters, plunging by 18%. On January 12th West Texas Intermediate (WTI), America’s benchmark, briefly dipped below $30 a barrel, its lowest level since 2003. The next day an incipient rally was undone by the news that American stocks of crude oil and petroleum products had reached 1.3 billion barrels, a new record. Firms are hunkering down. BP this week announced hefty job cuts; Petrobras, Brazil’s state-controlled oil firm, slashed planned investment.
Some blame factors other than supply and demand for turning increasingly bearish. For instance, Standard Chartered, a bank, said oil might need to fall as low as $10 a barrel before speculators concede that “matters had gone too far”. But it’s mostly guesswork. Such is the level of uncertainty that American derivatives contracts tied to deliveries in April imply an oil price of anything from $25 to $56 a barrel, according to official number-crunchers.
…
Opinion: Fund manager who’s been right on oil has a depressing new prediction
Published: Jan 15, 2016 4:26 p.m. ET
T. Rowe Price New Era’s Shawn Driscoll says the price for a barrel of oil could drop into the teens
By Howard Gold, Columnist
In November 2014, Shawn Driscoll, manager of the natural-resource-focused T. Rowe Price New Era Fund, told me he expected crude oil prices, then in the $80s-per-barrel range, to fall into the $50s within 10 years.
Ten weeks later, with crude in the $50s, I interviewed him again and he predicted crude would drop into the $30s.
This week, when oil was trading in the low $30s, I caught up with him once more. And if you’re looking for a so-called tradeable bottom in energy markets soon, you’re going to be disappointed.
Although Driscoll thinks crude oil will slip into the low- to mid-$20s within six months — at around $29.50 in late-Friday-afternoon NYMEX trading, we’re not far from that now — it ultimately could go lower as we spend the next decade digging out of a secular bear market in commodities and oil.
Why? Oil’s oversupply is profound and will last for at least two years, he said, and too many industry people still are in denial.
…
Crude under pressure, closing in on $30 a barrel
Published: Jan 15, 2016 3:34 a.m. ET
By Barbara Kollmeyer
Markets reporter
U.S. and Brent crude prices threatened to again push below the $30-a-barrel levels on Friday, as the commodity came under renewed selling pressure. More than reversing a 2.4% gain from Thursday, February crude (CLG6, -3.40%) dropped $1.09, or 3.5%, to $30.12 a barrel. Brent crude for the same month (LCOG6, +2.28%) dropped 70 cents, or 2.3%, to $30.18 a barrel. Losses for crude came as China stocks slipped into one definition of a bear-market — a 20% drop from a recent high. The pressure was also on U.S. stock futures, which pointed to a difficult open for Wall Street.
…
r u making any money or just talking as usual?
Did you buy a lottery ticket? I was thinking yesterday; there was a time when only organized criminals ran numbers gambling. Then governments made it legal - but only for governments.
I sure did. I was in the game for a few bucks. Was worth it to me. I took the losses like a man and have moved on.
“I sure did. I was in the game for a few bucks. Was worth it to me. I took the losses like a man and have moved on.”
O M G! Stupid is as stupid does, poet.
It’s actually a very rational decision to spend $2 on a chance to win a billion and the accompanying fantasy. A very cheap form of entertainment that doctrinaire aspies don’t understand.
“It’s actually a very rational decision to spend $2 on a chance to win a billion and the accompanying fantasy.”
This winning a billion only works if the number that other lottery players decide to play is different than yours. If a lot of players chose the same number as you chose the your share of the billion gets whacked accordingly.
There are two unknowns here:
1. The lottery number that is destined to win.
2. The number of people you will have to share the prize with if the lottery number that is destined to win is the lottery number that you selected.
I’ll roll the dice on $20 worth of powerball tickets before ever committing to a lifetime of losses on a rapidly depreciating house at a grossly inflated price like our degenerate gambler friends.
…. but yeah. Gov is so corrupt and broke they’ve endorsed and executed on pimping the millionare fantasy on any and every empty-pocketed fool that listens.
Powerball exec Charles Strutt quietly quits post as nationwide investigation into lottery rigging grows
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Wednesday, December 23, 2015, 3:32 PM
IOWA CITY, Iowa — A prominent lottery official who has run the Powerball game since its inception was quietly removed from his 28-year post leading the Multi-State Lottery Association after a jackpot-fixing scandal inside his organization got bigger, according to a document obtained by The Associated Press.
Charles Strutt, executive director of the association since its 1987 founding, was stripped of his duties in October by the group’s board, which includes directors of lotteries in 37 states and U.S. territories.
The Urbandale, Iowa-based association has been rocked by the case against Tipton, who was convicted in July of fraud for working with associates to attempt to claim a fixed $16.5 million Hot Lotto jackpot. Strutt testified for the prosecution, saying he believed a person shown on video buying the winning ticket in Des Moines was Tipton.
On Oct. 9, investigators announced they had uncovered new evidence showing Tipton worked with associates to fix jackpots and claim prizes worth millions of dollars in Colorado and Wisconsin. Since then, the case has expanded to include jackpots in Oklahoma and Kansas.
Investigators allege Tipton used his access to the association’s random number generators to know winning combinations in advance, then he and his associates played those numbers and shared the prizes.
http://www.nydailynews.com/…werball-exec-quits-nationwide-scandal-grows-article-1.2475227 -
Let’s not forget the infamous 666
http://www.lottery-guy.com/lgblog/nick-perry-pennsylvania-lottery-scandal/
“The idea was to switch out the regular lottery balls for the draw, and substitute them for a set of specially weighted balls that would greatly bias the result.”
Hmmmmm … a similar result might be obtained by screwing with the selected balls not by weighting them but by causing them to be influenced by a magnetic field.
If you can screw with the machine to cause it to create a magnetic field while it is in operation then this magnetic field would influence any balls that are subject to the magnetic field and it would not affect the balls that are not, hence you might be able to work it out that some balls will be selected while most of them would not.
“It’s actually a very rational decision to spend $2 on a chance to win a billion and the accompanying fantasy.”
Even if it’s not rational, it’s only two dollars wasted irrationally.
Dropouts don’t have two dimes to rub together.
only two dollars wasted…
Debt Donkey logic.
I can’t believe that no one has brought up the expected-value yet!
When the expected-value of a $2 ticket is greater than $2, then buying a ticket is indeed rational.
Gambling is defined as a game where the house always wins, meaning the expected value of every play is less than the price to play.
IMO, a positive expected-value changes it into the category of an investment—the near-infinite risk investment, granted, but an investment none the less.
Full disclosure: no, I didn’t play, but I have perhaps twice in my life based on the above logic.
$20 on lotto or a carnitas burrito and a movie - which is more entertaining? to each his own
have no fear
Debt Donkey logic.
Your debt donkey logic is not seeing the value of a paid-off home. (because of politics)
BTW, a lottery ticket in Brazil is less than 1 US dollar now!
That’s very good for those of us with those things called US dollars.
“When the expected-value of a $2 ticket is greater than $2, then buying a ticket is indeed rational.”
But in the case of a lottery ticket the meaning of “expected value” is meaningless because of the unknown number of other people that may have also chosen to play the winning number and thus the unknown number of other people you will be forced to divide the winnings with.
because of the unknown number of other people that may have also chosen to play the winning number
Oh, I agree completely that the model for expected value needs to include a probabilistic model for the likelihood of splitting the winnings. But that does not imply that the expected value is meaningless—far from it. It just means that it’s harder to compute. You certainly don’t want to invest based on a naive and incorrect expected value.
“But that does not imply that the expected value is meaningless—far from it. It just means that it’s harder to compute.”
It’s not only harder to compute, it’s impossible to compute. To calculate the expected value you must know and plug into your calculation the number of other people you will be compelled to share the winnings with, which is a number that is unknowable before the time of the winning number selection because the winning number is unknowable before the time of the winning number selection.
It all depends on how much you overpaid for your shanty Lola.
“A very cheap form of entertainment that doctrinaire aspies don’t understand.”
I totally get it. But smart people are able to fantasize about winning a billion bucks without blowing a near-certain loss of $2 on a lottery ticket once a week.
This is a tale of Shakespearean tragedy if one was ever told.
Curse of the lottery: Tragic stories of big jackpot winners
BY Nicole Bitette
NEW YORK DAILY NEWS
Updated: Tuesday, January 12, 2016, 9:19 AM
Some Think Winning Lottery Jackpot Is Cursed
CBS Miami
Winning isn’t everything.
It’s more likely you’ll get struck by lightning than win the Powerball — but if you do win, there is an even better chance that you’ll go broke.
Nearly 70% of lottery winners end up broke within seven years. Even worse, several winners have died tragically or witnessed those close to them suffer.
Edward Ugel, author of the book “Money for Nothing: One Man’s Journey Through the Dark Side of Lottery Millions,” told the Daily Beast of the thousands of lottery winners he’s known, few were happy and only a small number lived happily ever after.
“You would be blown away to see how many winners wish they’d never won,” Ugel said.
One of those unlucky winners was Abraham Shakespeare. Just weeks before Shakespeare was killed, he told his mother he wished he never won.
Shakespeare hit big for $30 million in 2006, causing friends and family to hound him for money.
He befriended Dorice (Dee Dee) Moore who tricked Shakespeare into believing she was trying to protect him from the greedy people around him.
Moore convinced the lottery winner to transfer his assets to her before he went missing in 2009. In 2012, she was sentenced to mandatory life without parole for his murder by a judge who called her “cold, calculating and cruel.”
…
“IMO, a positive expected-value changes it into the category of an investment—the near-infinite risk investment, granted, but an investment none the less.”
By definition, investment is something that provides lasting value. Handing over $2 to the state to waste in exchange for a near-certain loss doesn’t qualify in my book — expectations be damned.
“But in the case of a lottery ticket the meaning of “expected value” is meaningless because of the unknown number of other people that may have also chosen to play the winning number and thus the unknown number of other people you will be forced to divide the winnings with.”
It’s a complicated calculation which involves subjective probability, which some dismiss as mathematical voodoo, but there is no reason one cannot come up with an expectation figure that reflects the uncertain number of players and the probability that you may have to split the prize conditional on a win.
The pigeonhole principle applies to analyzing the case where the number of tickets purchased exceeds the number of distinct combinations.
If the lottery is rigged and nonrandom, the above remarks don’t apply.
“r u making any money”
Direxion Daily Hmbldrs&Supls Bear 3X ETF (CLAW) -NYSE
71.46 Up 11.04(18.27%) 9:40AM EST
52wk Range: 37.64 - 76.46
Don’t tell me you missed two housing bubbles?
Oh my word….
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/claw
Lowest Ever: The Baltic Dry Index Plunges To 394 As Global Trade Grinds To A Standstill
By Michael Snyder, on January 14th, 2016
For the first time ever, the Baltic Dry Index has fallen under 400. As I write this article, it is sitting at 394. To be honest, I never even imagined that it could go this low. Back in early August, the Baltic Dry Index was sitting at 1,222, and since then it has been on a steady decline. Of course the Baltic Dry Index crashed hard just before the great stock market crash of 2008 too, but at this point it is already lower than it was during that entire crisis. This is just more evidence that global trade is grinding to a halt and that 2016 is going to be a “cataclysmic year” for the global economy.
…
Trumps tariff plans should help…. lol
Smoot-Hawley redo?
January 14, 2016, 01:00 pm
Trump: Captain Chaos
By Robert B. Davis
The media are not vetting Donald Trump’s policy proposals, which would undermine the U.S. economy and exacerbate global chaos. Like cynical 20th century pundit H.L. Mencken, Trump appears to believe the “aim of politics is to keep the populace alarmed by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins.” Trump’s policy proposals are incoherent and wrong-headed. He would pour fuel on a world afire.
Trump poses as the champion of a besieged working class. He portrays himself as its St. George, slaying the corrupt, albeit “stupid” elite and foreign bogeymen such as China, Japan, and Mexico who have rigged the game. To quote Mencken, he tells followers that “for every complex problem there is an answer that is clear and simple.” As Mencken stated, that answer is invariably “wrong,” solely serving to play on fear and insecurity.
Trump offers massive tax cuts, including excluding individuals and couples making less than $25,000 and $50,000, respectively, from income taxes. This would benefit blue collar workers, but the Tax Foundation estimates Trump’s total tax cuts, without offsetting spending cuts, would add $10 trillion to national debt over a decade, increasing U.S. dependence on foreign creditors. The tax cuts would aggravate economic inequality, with the top 1 percent receiving 35 percent.
Trump states he will make the U.S. an economic powerhouse again by imposing a minimum tariff of 20 percent and up to 45 percent for China. He says he will compel allies to defray costs for deploying US military forces to NATO, Japan, South Korea, and elsewhere. He pledges to expel 11 million undocumented immigrants and build a massive wall on the border with Mexico. Trump claims all this “will make America great again,” creating high-paying jobs.
Trump is correct that free trade is not necessarily fair, many U.S. allies do not pay their fair share, and illegals take low paying jobs. However, Trump’s policies would be disastrous. His tariffs are reminiscent of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Act, which contributed to the Great Depression. Trump’s hostility to the U.S. alliance system could undermine U.S. security interests and access to markets. Building a wall and deporting all illegals would cost an estimated $400-600 billion. Expelling these illegals would cause social turmoil. Trump says he will emulate Eisenhower’s Operation Wet Back, but it failed. If Trump succeeded, he would wreak havoc with agribusiness, hotel and restaurant industries. Also, net illegal Mexican immigration currently is negative, contrary to Trump’s assertions.
…
Winston Churchill might have characterized Trump’s policy proposals as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.” It is unclear to what extent Trump’s pronouncements reflect bluster and demagoguery, and to what extent, ignorance. Whatever the case, Trump is unsuited to be commander in chief.
Davis is a retired intelligence analyst, who worked with the Army Special Operations Command, Defense Intelligence Agency, and CIA.
Baltic Dry Index falls to 373, down 10 points.
in Dry Bulk Market 15/01/2016
Today, Friday, January 15 2016, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 11 points, reaching 383 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Friday, January 15, 2016, when the index dropped to 373 points.
Source: Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
Key barometer of world trade crashes to record low in worrying sign global economy is grinding to a halt
By Hugo Duncan for the Daily Mail
Published: 16:57 EST, 15 January 2016 |
Updated: 16:56 EST, 15 January 2016
A key barometer of world trade has crashed to a record low in a worrying sign the global economy is grinding to a halt.
The so-called Baltic Dry Index, which measures the cost of shipping raw materials such as coal, iron ore and grain, has fallen nearly 70 per cent since August to its lowest level since its introduction in 1985.
The slump – which analysts said showed ‘global trade is really suffering’ as the outlook worldwide darkens – fuelled fears that the economy is heading for the rocks.
…
Shipyards Vanish as China Loses Appetite for Iron Ore: Chart
Kyunghee Park
January 11, 2016 — 1:00 PM PST
- About 140 Chinese shipyards went out of business since 2010
- Dependence on bulk carriers a risk amid low freight rates
The weakening yuan and China’s waning appetite for raw materials have come around to bite the country’s shipbuilders, raising the odds that more shipyards will soon be shuttered.
About 140 yards in the world’s second-biggest shipbuilding nation have gone out of business since 2010, and more are expected to close in the next two years after only 69 won orders for vessels last year, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts Sokje Lee and Minsung Lee wrote in a Jan. 6 report. That compares with 126 shipyards that fielded orders in 2014 and 147 in 2013.
…
A Towering Chinese Debt Mountain Looms Over Markets
Enda Curran
January 14, 2016 — 1:00 AM PST
Updated on January 14, 2016 — 4:24 PM PST
- Xi faces a historic debt unwinding in a decelerating economy
- “The government has made a complete hash of the past 6 months”
Lost in all the Chinese stock and currency market gyrations, policy missteps and mixed data is this economic reality: The government is constrained by a credit bubble that has ballooned to $28 trillion in an economy growing at its slowest pace in 25 years.
Policy zig-zags have left investors divided over how wedded President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang are to financial sector reform and shifting their $10 trillion-plus economy from one powered by investment and exports to one more focused on consumption and services.
China has appeared to backtrack on pledges to make its management of the yuan more market driven and there’s uncertainty over the government’s willingness to remove stock price supports imposed during a $5 trillion sell-off last summer. Amid the confusion, the benchmark CSI 300 Index, down 14 percent in 2016, has revisited the lows of last year’s rout and pressure on the currency continues.
Against that backdrop, Chinese officialdom faces the high-wire act of trying to keep the economy growing rapidly enough to repay past obligations, without resorting to a fresh pick-up in debt to fund more stimulus. It was China’s reliance on credit-fueled growth in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis that resulted in one of the biggest debt expansions in recent history, and today’s hangover.
“China is nowhere close to reining in its debt problems,” said Charlene Chu, the former Fitch Ratings Ltd. analyst known for her warnings over China’s debt risks and now a partner of Autonomous Research Asia Ltd. “It is one of the key factors weighing on GDP growth and one of the reasons why foreign investors are so concerned about China’s trajectory.”
…
A debt pyramid can only stand as long as it keeps growing. A shrinking economy cannot service a mountain of debt.
Markets
Energy Sector’s Junk Bonds Continue to Suffer
Investors shun oil-and-gas producers’ low-rated debt amid slump in commodity prices
Energy producers continue to feel the effects of a prolonged slump in commodity prices.
Photo: Bloomberg News
By Mike Cherney
Jan. 14, 2016 3:11 p.m. ET
Losses are deepening in the market for low-rated energy debt, as investors fret anew that a prolonged slump in commodity prices and slowing economic growth will push many firms into default.
Bonds from WPX Energy Inc. and Oasis Petroleum Inc. were among the biggest losers Thursday, shedding about 12% each, compared with the previous day, according to data from MarketAxess Holdings Inc. A 2019 bond from Oasis traded Thursday at 53 cents on the dollar, and a WPX bond maturing in 2023 traded at 65.5 cents.
The losses come after many investors have already bailed out of some larger oil-and-gas producers in the junk market. A 2023 bond from Chesapeake Energy Corp. is trading at 28.5 cents, about where it was in mid-December, according to MarketAxess.
Oil prices continued their slide this week and European crude futures dropped below $30 a barrel for the first time in more than a decade. Prices recovered some losses on Thursday and were back up above $30, but concerns remain that a global glut in supply will keep gains muted. Natural-gas futures fell Thursday after a government report said stockpiles declined less than expected.
“Pricing has continued to sail south for oil,” said Andrew O’Conor, energy credit analyst at Morningstar. “Natural gas has had a modest rebound…on account of colder weather domestically, but overall it’s my sense that weak pricing persists in the near term.”
…
Markets
$15 Oil? It’s Already Here, in Canada
Most barrels of oil garner less than benchmark prices because they are deemed lower quality or because buyers incur higher shipping costs
By Nicole Friedman
Jan. 14, 2016 7:41 p.m. ET
Crude prices dipped below $30 a barrel this week for the first time in years. But for many producers, $30 oil already is a thing of the past.
Most barrels of oil sold globally garner less than benchmark prices because they are deemed lower quality, or because buyers incur higher shipping costs. While discounts exist in times of high prices, too, they are more painful for producers when prices are low.
A basket of crude oils sold by the 13 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell Wednesday to $25.69 a barrel. Oman crude-oil futures on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange, a benchmark for crude exports from the Middle East to Asia, fell to $25.88 a barrel Wednesday. And some of the cheapest crude oil in the world, in Canada, costs less than $15.
These ultralow prices already are forcing producers to pile on spending cuts and increase layoffs, and some analysts have suggested that the U.S. oil price could keep dropping to $20 or lower.
…
ft dot com > Markets >
January 14, 2016 6:12 pm
Junk bond ETFs slide as investors exit the market
Joe Rennison in New York
The two largest exchange traded funds that track US junk bonds have fallen to levels last seen during the latter stages of the financial crisis, as investors shun exposure to highly indebted companies.
Sentiment towards high-yield debt has deteriorated this month after sliding for much of last year. The market has been unable to escape this month’s pronounced decline for equities and oil dropping below $30 a barrel.
In turn, the price of popular ETFs that track junk bonds has fallen to around their lowest levels since July 2009. The BlackRock iShares HYG, a $13.1bn ETF, traded as low as $78.28 on Thursday before recovering modestly. State Street’s JNK, with assets of $8.82bn, touched a low of $32.90 on Thursday before edging higher.
In recent years, speculative-rated companies, led by the shale and gas sector, rapidly increased their overall debt levels. Now as interest rates have climbed sharply for junk-rated debt, investors have sought to cut their holdings.
On Wednesday, a widely used triple C rated bond index rose to 18.8 per cent, its highest level since July 2009. Bank of America’s junk bond index moved close to its December highs, trading above 9 per cent.
“This all goes back to our view that the market and investors are waking up and realising that this is something bigger in credit,” said Michael Contopoulos, strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Real risks exist out there and we are in the midst of the end of the credit cycle and this is an expression of that.”
…
Global Market Overview
Last updated: January 15, 2016 8:25 am
Europe stocks soft as oil resumes slide
Jamie Chisholm, Global Markets Commentator
A man is reflected on a display showing stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo August 25, 2015. Volatile global markets showed tentative signs of a respite from the recent blood-letting on Tuesday as bargain hunters helped Asian stocks off three-year lows, though share markets in China, epicenter of the rout, suffered another big sell-off. Picture taken by slow shutter speed. REUTERS/Issei Kato
©Reuters
Friday 08:15 GMT. European stocks are tracking US equity futures and Asian bourses lower, as relapsing oil prices and concerns over China’s economy hit investors’ appetite for risk.
Traders are switching into supposed bolt-holes, pushing down government bond yields, boosting gold and the Japanese yen.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 is down 0.6 per cent as the FTSE Asia Pacific index sheds 0.5 per cent, on course to close the week at its lowest level in more than three years.
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Here’s why we haven’t hit a bottom yet
Bob Pisani
14 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Getty Images
It’s the day after the Powerball lottery. The joke on trading desks all week is that Wall Street has been selling stocks to play the lottery.
Now the lottery is over, and we are rallying. This makes sense, no?
Coming into work, the new joke was that we were rallying but it would all fall apart by midday, because that is all we do anymore Rally at the open, fall apart midday.
It hasn’t happened today, thanks to a rally in oil and a set of indicators that have been in oversold territory for days on end, including a high put/call ratio, the VIX in backwardation (the front month contracts are higher priced than contracts further out), and horrible sentiment from rank-and-file traders (the American Association of Individual Investors weekly sentiment indicator hit an 11-year low this week).
So is this a bottom? I doubt it. Traders are grappling with big issues that they can’t quite get their heads around.
…
Do u think stocks crash when they are oversold or overbought?
Oil prices will get worse before they get better: Analysts
Tom DiChristopher
Wednesday, 13 Jan 2016 | 8:55 AM ET
CNBC.com
After U.S. crude prices broke below $30 per barrel for the first time in 15 years, the market is asking how low oil futures can go? Most analyses see it rebounding in the back half of 2016, but crude faces significant headwinds in the coming months, experts told CNBC.
On Monday, Morgan Stanley joined Goldman Sachs in saying oil prices could dip to $20, and a number of major banks cut their crude cost outlook this week. Standard Chartered even raised the specter of $10 oil.
Oil as low as $20 — and perhaps even lower — is indeed possible, said Matt Smith, ClipperData’s director of commodity research.
“It seemed outlandish that we would get down to this level, but by all means, we could drop another $5-10 here,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday. “Now we’ve tested the two-handle here and the weakness is really going to come over the next sort of three, six months as the market looks to rebalance.”
Global oil production has so far remained stubbornly high despite a roughly 70 percent collapse in crude prices since mid-2014.
…
Though most don’t yet know it, and many others will constantly deny it, global asset markets are cratering.
First up: Commodities, shipping, junk bond and share prices.
Next up: Global housing crater…
Doesn’t oil being cheaper allow houses to be built cheaper?
some are arguing cheap oil is hurting the economy more than it is helping. what do u think?
It’s hurting the Wall Street gamblers who made leveraged bets on high oil prices forever.
This economy could use a good bath.
Or enema depending on your perspective.
Wal Mart is closing almost 300 stores.
+1. Is the long-deferred financial reckoning day, and true price discovery, at hand? If so, be very afraid, FBs and speculators. The Fed and tapped-out taxpayers can’t bail you out this time around.
QE4 and negative rates next?
Are we gonna go all in like japan? anything to prop up overpriced stocks?
If they do this, the next logical stage will be 20-30 years of deflation.
The Fed and tapped-out taxpayers can’t bail you out this time around.
Don’t forget: the Fed can still print an unlimited amount of electronic money in order to re-distribute the losses as they see fit.
Printing for the banks only. Everyone else must borrow Fed money.
Oh, agreed—their interpretation of their mandate is to prop up the banks at all costs. Everyone else can go hang—unless they owe a cr@pl0ad of money to a big bank that cannot be allowed to suffer the losses.
But saying the Fed can’t bail anyone out this time around is false; their own recently-adopted regulations that prevent bailouts can be cast away in a moment by a quick vote of the FOMC, laws be d@mned.
Has the Fed and other central banks decided to stop funding speculative asset bubbles?
We don’t know but I’m quite sure Jamie and Lloyd do.
Earlier this week, Abby Joseph Cohen, GS’s senior investment strategist, announced that the US stock market was “underpriced.” Meaning GS wanted people to buy. The market surged like 300 points that day. Could be GS was trying to unload positions.
Pulling her out of retirement to suck in greater fools is a serious crash indicator.
global asset markets are cratering. First up: Commodities, shipping, junk bond and share prices.
Next up: Global housing crater…
If this is true, you’re going to see job losses across the globe that will make your head spin - worse than 08.
My advice: Own you home outright or have 2-3 years rent in the bank, have a shotgun, be nice to your family, have good savings, some emergency food and have some real gold. Now.
Nobody cares about the rest of the globe Lola.
Labor Force Participation Rate Plummets To 37 Year Low; Jobless Population Soars To Record High
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Marketwatch dot com
Dow set for triple-digit drop as oil breaks under $30
By Barbara Kollmeyer
Published: Jan 15, 2016 5:56 a.m. ET
One analyst asks if this is ‘the calm before the storm’
Markets can’t get around a wall of China worry
Wall Street was setting up for a struggle on Friday, with stock futures falling sharply as China entered a bear market and oil prices traded below $30 a barrel.
Some distraction could come from the banking sector, which begins to report results in earnest on Friday. Economic data, which includes updates on retail sales and the state of New York manufacturing, could also give cues.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YMH6, -1.47%) dropped 260 points, or 1.6%, to 16,022, while S&P 500 futures (YMH6, -1.47%) futures slid 32.10 points, or 1.7%, to 1,882.75. Nasdaq-100 (NQH6, -1.63%) tumbled 80.50 points, or 1.9%, to 4,177.75.
The action threatens to reverse Thursday’s strong gains for stocks. The S&P 500 gained 1.7%, and the Dow industrials rose 1.4% as oil prices rebounded, while comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard appeared to calm fears about the pace of U.S. interest-rate increases this year. But oil pushed back under $30 a barrel for both U.S. (CLG6, -4.84%) and Brent crude UK:LCOG6 in Europe’s Friday morning action.
…
Marketwatch dot com
Oil plunges into the $20s a barrel on Iran supply woes
By Sara Sjolin and Biman Mukherji
Published: Jan 15, 2016 5:33 a.m. ET
Iran sanctions could be lifted as soon as this weekend
Reuters
A petrochemical complex in Assaluyeh seaport on Iran’s Persian Gulf coast.
Oil prices slumped on Friday and broke below the key $30-a-barrel level, as concerns about Iranian supplies adding to a global surplus kept the market under pressure.
Crude oil (CLG6, -4.94%) dropped $1.76, or 5.6%, to $29.47 a barrel, setting it track for the lowest closing level since late 2003. Brent oil (LCOH6, -3.82%) lost $1.40, or 4.5%, to $29.48 a barrel.
Investment sentiment has weakened as international sanctions against Tehran’s nuclear program could be lifted as soon as this weekend, which is likely to lead to a gush of Iranian oil exports.
“The oil supply glut in juxtaposition with the lessening demand is wholly more difficult to contain and with Iran set further to increase volumes following the lift of sanctions, the trend remains to the downside,” said Brenda Kelly, head analyst at London Capital Group, in a note.
I predicted the S&P will finish 2016 ten percent or more higher. Probably I am wrong, considering January effect.
Buy the S&P in November after the day of sadness “Stockholm Syndrome” Day, I mean Election Day.
I think the bear has had his claws in the bull for several months now. The indexes have not reflected it due to the overweight of the FANG stocks.
The small caps got mauled in 2015. 2016 is already a bloodbath, but AMZN, AAPL et al are and will feel the pain.
Economy
Wall Street Traders Get Mauled By The Rampaging Bear
Updated January 15, 2016 6:45 PM ET
Published January 15, 2016 6:02 PM ET
Marilyn Geewax
Stocks on Wall Street and around the world fell on Friday as concerns about oil prices and the Chinese economy persisted.
On Friday, Wall Street traders got the same treatment as the main character in The Revenant: A big fearsome bear attacked again and again.
By the close, stock prices were badly mauled. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 2.4 percent of its value, tumbling 391 points to close at 15,988.
The S&P 500 index dropped 2.16 percent to 1,880 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index lost 2.7 percent to 4,488.
Wall Street’s rough day started during the night, when investors in Asia and Europe began dumping shares. First, China’s Shanghai composite index plunged 3.6 percent, falling into bear-market territory — down 21 percent from a high in late December. Then Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 2.8 percent.
All of that selling was tied to the bad news for energy companies. Their troubles worsened as Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, fell to $29.05 a barrel. West Texas crude closed at $29.42. Those prices are stunning, considering that oil was selling for nearly $115 as recently as June 2014.
Oil and other commodity prices have been falling amid fears that China’s growth is slowing dramatically. A few years ago, China was gobbling up raw materials, such as iron ore, copper and coal. Now, as that country’s growth cools, it is buying far less of everything.
That’s hurting producer nations, especially in Africa, Latin America and even here in North America. So prices are way down for materials sold in bulk. And for oil, the problem has been made much worse by surging supplies. Iran is expected to soon flood the market with new oil exports.
And then other bad news piled on. A new report on the U.S. producer price index showed wholesale prices decreased 0.2 percent in December. And retail sales slipped 0.1 percent last month.
Intel Corp. added more gloom when it said its first-quarter sales would fall short of some forecasts. That knocked its stock price down 9 percent.
Investors are looking around and seeing energy companies laying off workers and currencies from commodity-producing countries in flux and questions being raised about weakness in manufacturing.
Such factors added to the pessimism, and this did not help: The U.S. stock market will be closed Monday for Martin Luther King Day. Traders typically get more jittery when they can’t sell shares while other global markets are doing business.
So people moved money away from stocks and into safer investments, such as U.S. Treasury securities. There were so many takers for the benchmark 10-year Treasury note that its yield slipped to a three-month low of 2.0295 percent.
Analysts scrambled to remind average investors that markets are volatile and that the U.S. economy has lots of strengths, including robust job growth, cheap gasoline and an improving housing sector.
Or as Hugh Glass, the much-mauled character put it in The Revenant: “Don’t give up, as long as you’ve got a breath in you.“
The Telegraph
‘Financial carnage’ wipes £113bn off FTSE in ten days as China enters bear market
For the second time in seven months, the Shanghai Composite index entered ‘bear market’ territory, as FTSE suffers its worst new year start ever
By Tara Cunningham, Business Reporter
7:21PM GMT 15 Jan 2016
Britain’s leading companies surrendered more than £113bn in value in the first 10 trading sessions this year, as another oil-inspired sell-off wreaked havoc on global financial markets.
A lethal cocktail of oil price volatility, China’s controversial circuit breaker and fears of a prolonged global economic slowdown have culminated in a frightful fortnight for the FTSE – its worst new year start in its 31-year history.
The FTSE 100 imploded today, closing at its lowest level in three years – down 114.13points, or 1.93pc, to 5,804.10, with almost £30bn wiped off. The blue chip index has now lost 18.3pc since hitting a high of 7,104 in April.
…
Surge of Swiss Franc Triggers Hundreds of Millions in Losses
Brokerage FXCM Gets Rescue Package; Deutsche Bank and Citigroup Suffer Big Hits
http://www.wsj.com/articles/swiss-franc-move-cripples-currency-brokers-1421371654
“At the center of this week’s turmoil, analysts said, was the use by FXCM clients of borrowed money, or leverage. FXCM kept lower margin requirements, or the amount held as collateral for a loan, than its competitors, analysts said, a practice that enabled traders to boost returns by using borrowed money.”
Brokerage FXCM Gets Rescue Package;
Rescue??!? They have just amply demonstrated their inability to do responsible risk-management; they _should_ go bust and be shut down, and the scraps and bones of the failed company should be picked up by its more-responsible competitors.
Once again, we apparently have learned nothing.
Hangin’s too good for ‘em! Burnin’s TOO GOOD FOR EM! They need to be torn into ITSY BITSY PIECES and buried ALIIIIIIIIIVE!
Twitter hits 52 week low this week.
“After Twitter made known its compensation to top executives, there were headlines crowing about the $72.8 million — mostly stock awards — that enriched Chief Financial Officer Anthony Noto in the second half of last year. ”
“We pointed out in October that Twitter’s third-quarter stock-based compensation totaled 47% of its revenue, and that $170 million in stock-based awards were the main factor leading to a net loss of $7 million. The third-quarter’s compensation was higher as a percentage of revenue than similar awards made by any company included in the S&P 1500 Composite Index.”
“The company also focuses on adjusted earnings, leaving out the non-cash stock-compensation expense. Many Wall Street analysts also overlook the “harmless” stock-based awards.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/twitters-latest-shareholder-slap-73-million-for-a-finance-guy-2015-04-21
The house is always the real winners with stocks. shareholders get to pay for their salaries.
At what point will the latest Wall Street panic infect the Fed, leading them to backpedal liftoff plans?
fed is one an done fo sure
10yr is below the point where they raised in dec so who cares?
Does it help the fed more if stocks go down and bonds go up? think about that one for awhile.
ft dot com > Markets > Equities >
US Equities
Last updated: January 15, 2016 8:31 pm
Oil hits 12-year low as Wall Street sinks
US stocks fell below the lows they hit in August and oil prices settled below $30 for the first time in 12 years as further disappointment over economic data reinforced a spiral of investor pessimism about the outlook for the world economy.
Equity indices in Japan and Europe have lost a 10th of their value so far this year, with the US not far behind. Friday’s fall in the benchmark S&P 500 index briefly took it below the lows set last summer, when a devaluation of the Chinese currency sparked chaos across global markets.
Ahead of a long weekend in the US, the deepening rout throws into stark relief the decision by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December for the first time in almost a decade. Expectations in the bond market for further rate rises are waning.
The latest market declines came after the release of economic figures showing US retail sales fell in December, even as tumbling prices for fuel boosted consumer spending power. Indicators of the mood among east coast manufacturers and a gauge of industrial production fell more than economists had forecast.
The 10-year US government note yield at one point fell below the 2 per cent mark for the first time since October. In contrast, riskier debt such as junk bonds took another hammering as the S&P 500 fell as much as 3 per cent during the trading session, for a loss of 8.8 per cent so far this year.
By the close in New York the S&P was down 2.2 per cent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 2.7 per cent.
“It’s been a brutal start to the year,” said Ben Laidler, a global equity strategist at HSBC. “People are worried about China and a Fed policy mistake, and one is feeding the other.”
…
Check back once the sleepin dole trolls wake up for the DNCs coordinated talking points:
http://www.weaselzippers.us/251061-not-too-obvious-democratic-talking-point-on-gop-debate-sons-of-immigrants-against-immigrants/
Sprinkle some “that’s not who we are” on top and put in in the oven for an hour at 425° and the narrative will be ready to be sliced and served, but never before 10am EST
Paul Ryan: Obama’s State of the Union ‘degrades the presidency’
WASHINGTON — In a scathing response to President Obama’s State of the Union Address, House Speaker Paul Ryan told USA TODAY on Wednesday that the speech’s political tone toward Donald Trump and the Republican presidential field “degrades the presidency.”
Obama made comments unmistakably targeted at Trump, though he didn’t mention the GOP front-runner by name in Tuesday’s address. The president blasted as un-American and wrong-headed those who are “promising to restore past glory if we just got some group or idea that was threatening America under control.”
Ryan said he agreed with Obama that Trump’s proposal to temporarily ban Muslim immigrants from the United States was a bad idea. “Putting a religious test on anybody coming to this country is wrong,” the Wisconsin Republican said. “We ought to have a security test, not a religious test. That’s who we are.
“But I think it sort of degrades the presidency to then talk about primary politics in the other party, during primaries. That’s not what presidents ought to be talking about in State of the Union addresses,” Ryan added. “Speaking up for our values and speaking up for our beliefs is one thing. But kind of wading into the primary politics of the other party is just not really what presidents ought to do.”
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/01/13/paul-ryan-obama-political-state-of-the-union-degrades-presidency/78747316/
Paul Ryan is a tool of the Oligopoly, just like the rest of the Republicrat duopoly.
“That’s who we are.”
Every time I hear Ryan proclaim that’s who we are or aren’t, I throw up in my mouth a little.
I looked at some of the ‘highlights’ for Obozo’s SOTU from the other night and Ryan sitting over Obozo’s left shoulder looked from time to time like he was puking in his mouth.
Anybody else notice this?
It looked some kind of performance to me. He probably wanted to affect a scowl to show that he disapproved of the president without going as far as that guy who screamed “you lie” .
His “did somebody fart?” look contrasted perfectly with Biden’s look of undying adoration.
SOTU from the other night and Ryan sitting over Obozo’s left shoulder looked from time to time like he was puking in his mouth.
It’s been the butt of jokes on social media for days. (Kids don’t like the Repubs)
http://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/watch-colberts-brilliant-takedown-paul-ryans-state-union-poker-face
Update: Crude Blasts Hole Through $30 Floor; Next Support At $20
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic
Has anyone here had experience with bitcoin? Opinions pro and con?
I’ve never heard of it. Is it something new?
http://vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/onlyonetv/images/c/c2/Buttcoins.gif/revision/latest?cb=20110629143518
Looks like something that will collapse overnight at some point.
It’s 85% run by the Chinese. What could go wrong?
Disclaimer: I hold zero bitcoin nor any other digital crypto-currency, and never have.
But I have to correct you on that, Blue: bitcoin isn’t “run” by anyone.
Bitcoin is based on the block-chain; you can think of that as an OPEN ledger of who owns how much. The ledger is implemented by a distributed log with an agreement protocol for how to cryptographically sign new chunks of the log (blocks in the block-chain), thus “sealing” them for posterity.
Anyone who wants to run can the agreement protocol on any computer, though it is unlikely to be cash-flow positive without special hardware (which is state-of-the-art for only a short timeframe).
If the Chinese are using bitcoin more than others, perhaps it’s because they rightly trust their government even less than we do?
But no one “runs” it, in the “ownership” sense.
I am bullish on bit coins. Like anything else, buy low sell high.
Don’t do it kids!
I have seen this before, a kicker that misses a chip shot under pressure is like a dog that bites someone.
He may have been a good dog and the family may love him but unless you put him down he will do it again.
Vikings kicker to meet with first graders who wrote him letters of support
Posted: Jan 14, 2016 12:40 PM EST
By WTHR Channel 13
BLAINE, Minn. -
A first grade teacher in Minnesota decided it was a teachable moment in sympathy when Vikings kicker Blair Walsh broke down in tears after missing a critical field goal.
Walsh missed a 27-yard field goal last Sunday in frigid temperatures, giving the Seattle Seahawks a 10-9 win. Naturally, he took some heat for his performance.
But some students at Northpoint Elementary in Blaine, Minn. decided to show their support for Walsh.
And now the Star Tribune reports that Walsh has met with first graders whose teacher had them write letters of support.
“I know that it can be hard to get through things that are sad. but you have to try and try again. Everyone makes mistakes sometimes,” one student wrote.
“I worked real hard to get myself to a place where I was very, very consistent for this team all year and in that moment, the moment they need me the most I wasn’t. That stings and I’ll be working hard to erase that from my career but it’ll take a while,” he added.
“I know this feeling unfortunately, it has happened to me twice and I think my record of kicks in my career kind of speaks for itself. I know that I’m one of the better kickers in the league and I know that sounds kind of crazy right now, but I think my record says that. Like I’ve said over and over, the one that they needed the most today, I didn’t make and that’s on me. these guys deserved to win tonight and…I gotta finish it,” Walsh said.
http://www.wthr.com/…s-kicker-to-meet-with-first-graders-who-wrote-him-letters-of-support -
PS
Rio
I don’t want to hear sh#t about frigid temperatures or the laces it was a a 27-yard field goal and that’s his job. These first graders could be in Law School before that team gets another shot to win a playoff game.
Everyone deserves a trophy these days.
Pretty harsh, considering that the guy kicked three in a row prior to that, making up ALL of the points scored by the entire team.
Labrador retrievers and Saint Bernards will be replaced by Seals and Walruses as Suburban family pets.
Humans could evolve webbed feet if sea levels rise, scientist claims
By Sarah Knapton, Science Editor
12:01AM GMT 13 Jan 2015
The perils of climate change are well known, but rising sea levels could also alter human evolution, scientists have claimed.
Rising sea levels could force communities to live in underwater or semi-aquatic towns which could change out physiology.
Dr Matthew Skinner, a paleoanthropologist from the University of Kent, claims that humans could evolve to have webbed hands and feet and less body hair so they could move quickly through the water.
Warmists gonna warm.
That’s an interesting article. It’s about what various situations would do to human evolution: an ice age, a worldwide flood, and living in low-gravity outer space are all considered.
If you’re really dumb, it’s an article about how stoopid scientists are. Right phony?
Don’t ask me I’m still waiting for the water in peoples living rooms in South Florida every time it rains because of Climate Change Obama told us about last year.
I had to give up on Al Gore’s inconvenient predictions a couple of years ago.
You sound like the people who for years laughed at the idea of there being a housing bubble, until it popped.
Meanwhile, watch out for that January hurricane! Everything seems back to normal.
When the water comes, it will be Obama’s fault.
Happy Friday!
KeeeeeeeeeeeeRaaaaaaaaaank it up to 11, sit back and count your stack o’ cash.
https://youtu.be/sohB922c2uQ
And for you Lolas and Liberaces, here’s one of your favorites.
https://youtu.be/2nXGPZaTKik
Got gold? The real, physical precious metal, not the make-believe, manipulated paper gold sold on the COMEX.
http://www.kitco.com/market/
You gold bugs are going to get squished when it dawns on everyone that the USA and the World are in recession and not getting out anytime soon.
I can’t wait to see Discovery Channel’s Gold Rush when the metal is under $500 / ounce.
Recessions don’t seem to have any consistent effect on gold:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/default/files/sieron052215-1.jpg
You gold bugs are going to get squished.. in recession and not getting out anytime soon.
Brazil is in a serious recession and my gold is touching all time highs in the local currency.
Gold, cash, paid off house, food, loved ones and a shotgun are must haves when SHTF.
(And the internet and a great stereo with a turntable.)
Is a paid off house really that important? Who is going to kick you out or enforce the debt?
The problem with Lolas “paid off house” is the fact she paid a fortune for it.
Naw…gold will keep waffling until liftoff gets into gear, which will not happen if a recession takes hold.
Wally World closing 269 stores. So much for the Obama-Fed-Goldman Sachs “recovery.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wal-mart-shares-dip-after-it-announces-269-global-store-closures-2016-01-15
Here comes the Bush family hat trick. Hehe.
Lindsey Graham to Endorse Jeb Bush
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/lindsey-graham-endorse-jeb-bush-n497231
“His endorsement is very meaningful and along with it come a lot of friends and supporters of his,” Bush said in an appearance on FOX News, which first broke the story of the nod.
Great news for Jeb! Now he’ll get all of the closeted gay vote.
If you are tired of wars, don’t vote for me.
–Lindsey Graham
If you are tired of wars, don’t vote for me.
If you want more gov and more gov spending on wars and handouts to big biz, and more trickle down economics….vote neo-con.
Hillaryous the neo-con is unelectable.
Salon dot com revives a Cecil the Lion narrative:
http://www.salon.com/2016/01/15/the_true_tragedy_of_cecil_the_lion_the_media_has_overlooked_partner/
Is Kony back too? Ice bucket challenge? What was the expiration date of putting the French flag overlay on your Facebook profile? It’s been five weeks already.
It’s alot of hard work being a slacktivist and keeping up with all these narratives.
Cecil did his job.
He got the Planned Parenthood story of flipping 20-weekers over to be able to harvest an intact head for human organ procurement off the front page.
by Dr. Susan Berry27 Oct 20152,297
In the 11th video released by Center for Medical Progress, a Planned Parenthood abortionist in Texas admits she alters the position of the baby during an abortion in order to be able to harvest an intact head for human organ procurement.
Dermish describes a partial-birth abortion procedure to terminate living, late-term fetuses which, she says, she hopes will provide intact fetal heads for brain harvesting.
“My aim is usually to get the specimens out pretty intact,” explains Dermish to the undercover investigators, admitting that she will sometimes use ultrasound to manipulate a second-trimester fetus to a feet-first breech presentation.
“Especially the 20-weekers are a lot harder versus the 18-weekers, so at that point I’ll switch to breech,” she states.
“That’s what Deb [Nucatola] was telling us, was it really makes a difference for tissue collection at PPLA,” says one of the actors, referencing Nucatola’s technique for organ harvesting.
“It’s really nice when it’s, yeah–I trained with her,” replies Dermish.
When asked about harvesting a fetal brain, Dermish responds, “I haven’t been able to do that yet,” but laughs, “This will give me something to strive for!”
Cool story brony.
TradCon shaming doesn’t change the fact that the best way to prevent abortions is responsible use of birth control.
“TradCon shaming doesn’t change the fact that the best way to prevent abortions is responsible use of birth control.”
True
The only problem is it has that “r” word in there.
the best way to prevent abortions is responsible use of birth control.
It’s hilarious when men, with our entire reason for being and who’s life revolves around getting into a women’s pants, lectures women on the responsibility and consequences of sex.
In theory I guess we have the right but in practice, it’s a joke.
“…the best way to prevent abortions is responsible use of birth control.”
The euro ladies know better… without using birth control.
Lola’s not a Euro lady. He’s in South America (also known as a public library in Kansas City).
Who objects to fetal tissue being used for medical research?
It’s the modern-day version of “They’re drinking the blood of christian babies!”
I have stated my opinion that it is a woman’s right to choose, should not be taken lightly or used as birth control etc.
I don’t claim to know what point it is, but at some point somebody else should have rights too.
“Especially the 20-weekers are a lot harder versus the 18-weekers, so at that point I’ll switch to breech,” she states.
Week Twenty: The halfway point
Congratulations!
You are 20 weeks pregnant. (fetal age 18 weeks)
Baby now weighes about 11 ounces and is roughly 7 inches long.
The baby can hear and recognize the mother’s voice.
The mother will probably start feeling the first fetal movements.
The toenails and fingernails are growing.
The growth of hair on the rest of the body has started.
The skin is getting thicker.
The heart can now be heard with a stethoscope.
Your baby may react to loud sounds. Baby can actually hear noises outside of the womb. Familiar voices, music, and sounds that baby becomes accustomed to during their development stages often are calming after birth. This is an important time for sensory development since nerve cells serving each of the senses; taste, smell, hearing, sight, and touch are now developing into their specialized area of the brain.
20 weeksYour baby now weighes about 11 ounces and at roughly 7 inches long they are filling up more and more of the womb. Though still small and fragile, the baby is growing rapidly and could possibly survive if born at this stage.
NoteNote: Babies are measured from the crown (or top) of the head to the rump (or bottom) until about 20 weeks. After that, they are measured from head to heel. This is because a baby’s legs are curled up against the torso during the first half of pregnancy and very hard to measure.
Every time that this issue of late term abortion comes up, we never hear much about why women choose to wait 20 or more weeks.
hey GOP - just dont to be pro birth, stay pro people if you want more. we can just jail them all (450k a yr)
the fiscal conservative
I have stated my opinion that it is a woman’s right to choose, should not be taken lightly or used as birth control etc.
I agree. Abortion is a horrible thing and should be totally avoided whenever possible. But I do not think we have the right to make it illegal.
You can’t get pregnant Lola, quit trying.
More Obama-Fed-Goldman Sachs “recovery.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/empire-fed-manufacturing-jan-2016-2016-1
FoxNewsHate rallies the base, reports on Rubio calling Edward Snowden a traitor:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/01/15/rubio-hits-cruz-on-immigration-snowden-late-in-gop-debate.html
Marco Rubio is a wholly owned subsidiary of Sheldon Adelson. Sheldon Adelson is an agent of the Likud Party of Israel. Despite allegedly being a United States citizen, Sheldon Adelson’s primary loyalty is to Israel, not the United States.
When you support Marco Rubio, you are a traitor.
Donald Trump said as much, wants to execute Edward Snowden, That is the first brain flatulence he said on the campaign trail.
I HATE Trump. Hope he expires.
America deserves to live through a Trump/Hillary general election.
“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush
Yes, with them as running mates on the Republicrat ticket, no less!
When you support Marco Rubio, you are a traitor.
Trump wants Snowden executed too.
If you support Trump, you are a traitor, too, right?
Ruble sinking like a stone. How long before Russia defaults on its euro- and dollar-denominated foreign debt?
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Currency/USDRUB?countrycode=US
I thought Russia was the new Rock of Gibraltar because of its low debt?
We must import millions more Democrat Entitlement Voters from Central America to secure Comrad Pelosi’s unassailable permananet majority and build our neoliberal utopia. Forward!
http://www.businessinsider.com/el-salvador-is-the-bloodiest-nation-in-the-western-hemisphere-2016-1
William Kristol (net worth $200,000,000) provides a neocon narrative:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/neither-trump-nor-hillary/article/2000583
Neocons depend on the primitive superstitions of Christian Zionists to get elected. It is a belief system that has nothing to do with the life and gospel of Jesus Christ. These people are sick and evil.
Israel is not the 51st state. And remember, peasant, all you’ll ever be to these neocons is a dumb f*ing goyim.
Breitbart dot com abandons libertarianism, advocates neocon:
http://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2016/01/14/exclusive-days-before-sanctions-relief-iran-offers-to-upgrade-relations-with-hamas-terrorists/
Who gets to fight and die for this? Poor blacks, poor browns, and poor white trash.
Sheldon Adelson has a net worth of over $25,000,000,000.
More Sky Wizard follies linked from Google News, Israeli military kills two Palestinians throwing rocks:
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0UT1X9
The national debt is now twenty trillion dollars. But when your foreign policy is controlled by an electorate that believes in the Rapture, deficits don’t matter, as Dick Cheney wisely said.
Sheldon Adelson has a net worth of over $25,000,000,000.
Do you guys think that if 30 years of tax policies had “reduced” Sheldon’s current net worth to 10 billion instead of 25 billion his life would be any less rich or he would have “created” fewer jobs or done less “good” in the world?
Do you think it makes America more “capitalistic” when someone can amass 25 billion in personal wealth than if he could only amass 10 billion in a lifetime instead?
IMO, USA would be a much richer and capitalistic country if people like Sheldon were currently worth 10 billion and that extra 15 billion had been spent the past 30 years on jobs programs, training, infrastructure and programs to bolster the middle class instead of sitting in one man’s name.
And now he’s using those extra billions to buy our government.
And Trump sought out a private meeting with him.
I wonder what they talked about.
+1 and 665
Washington Times (published by the Unification Church, the Moonies) provides a narrative on Donald Trump and white supremacists:
http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jan/14/donald-trump-attracting-white-supremacists-draws-c/
The Southern Poverty Law Center is a criminal terrorist organization.
Is the bromance between Donny and Teddy over?
The Fix
The end of the Donald Trump-Ted Cruz bromance, charted
By Kevin Uhrmacher January 15 at 8:52 AM
With just weeks left before the first votes are cast, several Republican presidential candidates were on the offensive at Thursday night’s Fox Business debate in North Charleston, S.C.
Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) provided some of the liveliest exchanges, as they sparred over Cruz’s citizenship and what Cruz called Trump’s “New York values.”
Until recently, the two candidates seemed to have established a mutually beneficial peace, largely avoiding attacking one another in the debates. After the debate, Trump remarked that his “bromance” with Cruz appeared to be over.
…
ZH is down at this time. Did the Neoconservatives shut it down? What is Adelson up to?
What is Adelson up to?
Watching a looped video clip of the IDF running Rachel Corrie over with a bulldozer?
It’s the neocon way.
ZH is down at this time.
The ruble’s crash has destroyed its financing.
Most Americans have less than $1,000 in savings and Chelsea Clinton was curious if she could care about money on some fundamental level, but couldn’t.
Hillary has Alzheimer’s.
Without Huma working as her seeing eye dog she’d be bumping into walls and falling down stairs. Hopefully Lena Dunham running Hillary’s Instagram account will rally enough youth vote to overlook the fact that Hillary doesn’t know where she is half the time.
Betters don’t appreciate discussion of Hillary’s excretory functions, so let’s stay on topic with her senility and big fat cankles.
New York Times real journalists provide a narrative:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/01/15/opinion/campaign-stops/the-republican-deficit-hypocrisy.html?_r=0
A multi-front neocon war with Iran and Russia is gonna cost alot of money.
But when the Republican primary electorate is dominated by people who believe that the Earth is 6,000 years old, that’s what you’re gonna get.
Meanwhile in Chicago ILLANNOY…..
Linky from Drudge…..
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2016/01/14/judge-agrees-to-release-video-of-chicago-police-shooting-that-killed-black-teen/
And attending results….
http://www.upstream-ideas.com/ideas/rahm-isnt-the-gangster-he-wishes-he-was-hes-a-punk/
Enjoy your weekend.
PS Antonio Brown - OUT!!!
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/steelers–antonio-brown-ruled-out-with-concussion-vs–broncos-144750566.html
Real journalists get trolled, LOLZ abound:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/bile-venom-and-lies-how-i-was-trolled-on-the-internet/2016/01/14/62207a2c-baf8-11e5-829c-26ffb874a18d_story.html
Dianne Feinstein is a fat old hag.
Actually that’s a good read right there. Cautionary tale.
Dianne Feinstein is a fat old hag.
and they (GOP) fear her??? why??
Get ready for the Fed to escalate its War on Savers.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-15/here-it-comes-new-york-fed-president-says-if-economy-weakens-further-would-consider-
yesterday bullard was wheeled out
today it was dudley
Time for the janet yellen to come out of hiding next?
Why is Janet in hiding?
More Obama-Fed-Goldman Sachs “recovery.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-15/us-freight-volumes-fall-first-time-3-years-baltic-dry-crashes-under-400
Who could’ve foreseen that voting for a puppet of the globalists and banksters would result in such “fundamental transformation”? But soon we shall have our own Frau Merkel: President Hillary Clinton.
http://news.yahoo.com/german-town-bars-asylum-seekers-pool-harassment-complaints-154439822.html
Cats and boxed wine. And no, you don’t get to be Carrie Bradshaw when you grow up:
http://www.infowars.com/average-age-of-first-time-mothers-reaches-all-time-high-across-us-study/
First it’s bad we have so many teen mothers, now it’s bad we don’t.
Whatever happens, it’s bad! And just goes to show…
I wonder if Alex Jones and Glenn Beck consider teen motherhood to be a problem at all. In particular, I wonder what they think about girls like Bristol Palin who grow up in religious GOP families in red states and then have babies without benefit of marriage. I looked up Alex Jones and found this:
Jones is a Christian and expresses high regard for the Bible, often citing the more prophetic books of the Bible in order to back up his conspiracy theories,[51] stating: “I just want to try to be a pure and virtuous person. I want to try to transcend my flesh and be the true leader that we’re all meant to be… I feel the spirit of the Creator and it embraces me with chills…”[52]
However, he views organized religion as part of the New World Order, saying, “One of the biggest problems in the United States is organized religion. Not just Christians, but Hindus, Muslims, other people. The leaders of their denominations have been funded openly by governments and corporations to preach doctrines of submission to government, submission to tyranny.”[53] He is also very critical of Pope Francis, whom he considers to be a socialist advocate of a global government, and a global religion, while ignoring traditional Catholic issues such as abortion.[54]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Jones_(radio_host)#Religious
Factor out immigrants and that number (age 26) is probably much higher.
Have our Ponzi markets entered their end game?
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/14/when-story-stocks-crash-like-this-the-market-is-kaput/
Sean Penn now regretting his Chapo interview -
Wonder if he will end up 6 ft. under like Breitbart did when he started his anti Obama campaign.
Sheryl Atkinson has been very quiet of late.
They’d never go after Penn. But if I was that Mexican actress, I’d be a little worried. More of the government than the cartels, though.
The Mexican government is thoroughly corrupt. Once we have our Democrat permanent supermajority, we’ll be just as corrupt. So for all you Hillary supporters: when cops start shaking you down and demanding bribes (with impunity), while they work hand in glove with the criminals to kidnap and extort the wealthy and middle class, remember, this is what you voted for.
Basically when cops start treating white middle class people like they currently treat poor blacks.
ahhh, I loved last night’s debate from the scared neo-cons. everything they say they will do they have never done. Bush had full control, nothing got done.
but this time is different
love the 45% Trump tariff idea. talk about chaos.
Bush had full control
You have to stop lying for a change. Bush’s bad, but he never had full control of anything.
He was a puppet of the globalists, just like every other president in the past 50 years.
Who controlled Congress during George W Bush?
The GOP ran the House from 2001 to 2007, Bush’s first six years in office, while Republicans only controlled the Senate from 2003 to 2007. (In Bush’s first three months, the Senate was divided 50-50 until the May 2001 defection of Republican Sen. James Jeffords gave Democrats control.)
factoid
+1000
wow - this board at times is like telling a story around a circle and the story told to the originator has no semblence to the one he / she originated. Yikes!!!
How is it there HBB’ers that this brief discussion went from Penn / Chapo to this:
“Who controlled Congress during George W Bush?
The GOP ran the House from 2001 to 2007, Bush’s first six years in office, while Republicans only controlled the Senate from 2003 to 2007. (In Bush’s first three months, the Senate was divided 50-50 until the May 2001 defection of Republican Sen. James Jeffords gave Democrats control.)
factoid”
… wow -this board at times is like telling a story around a circle and the story told to the originator has no semblence to the one he/she originated…
Well…You can say “wow” about he/shes all you like, but it was you guys who originated that subject, and it had no semblance to the original discussion.
See?
(Now that was funny!)
I tried to make you all rich
FXP up 10% today — SHORT CHINA - we all know this!!
The third celebrity in the tabloid celebrity death trio:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/15/entertainment/dan-haggerty-grizzly-adams-dead-feat/
Bowie, Rickman, Haggerty. Weird trifecta.
Leap year, buddy.
Meadowlark Lemon.
Notice how the oligarch-owned financial media is trying frantically not to stampede the herd?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-panic-dont-sell-plan-2015-08-26
creating time for themselves to liquidate?
How braggadocious are all those now who worked SO hard to buy in on the August crash only to see us revisiting the scene again 5 months later. LOL!! Hope you sold at 17,500.
Russian default in 3-2-1…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-15/ruble-extends-weekly-drop-with-oil-as-rbs-says-selloff-not-over
he smelt it
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/15/a-recession-worse-than-2008-is-coming-commentary.html
I thought lower prices where good for the economy???
“I thought lower prices where good for the economy???”
They are, unless you are one of the greater fools who used leverage to buy high in a bubble.
A falling Chinese yuan will unleash a wave of global deflation that will send the U.S. into its next recession and pull the S&P 500 back down to 550 points, according to a strategist at Societe Generale.
Albert Edwards, the notoriously bearish analyst at the French bank, released a note on Wednesday in response to the recent currency devaluations by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). This depreciation - with reports last week that it’s far from over - is a result of an asset price bubble that the U.S. central backed helped to create, according to Edwards.
I think the deflation is showing up already. I do a lot of back-country hiking & also keep camp stoves on hand for emergency preparedness. I do not understand how the Chinese can possibly be making any money on units like this:
http://www.amazon.com/Leegoal-Ultralight-Backpacking-Canister-Ignition/dp/B004U8CP88/ref=sr_1_4?s=sporting-goods&ie=UTF8&qid=1452629908&sr=1-4&keywords=ultralight+backpacking+stove
Sounds like the banksters are already pandering for their next round of bailouts.
And now for your oligarch-sponsored fundamental transformation update:
http://www.therebel.media/muslim_migrant_rapes_teen_girls_canadian_media_silent
Yay! My FCX is nicely in the green. Loaded up the truck when it went under $4.00 as a high-risk/high-reward proposition.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=AhHmFgpkjVGgqoorTvbh2bHkNbkF;_ylu=X3oDMTEwajVnbTR2BHBvcwM4BHNlYwN5ZmlRdW90ZXNUYWJsZQRzbGsDZmN4?s=FCX
Why?
Isn’t there a pretty good chance they will go bankrupt?
Like I said, high risk/high reward.
FCX is sitting on a lot of gold, which if it does what I think it’s going to do once our Ponzi markets start to implode, should make the stock an attractive proposition.
It’s a shame that ‘Murican mothers don’t love their children enough to raise them themselves, instead of putting them in kiddie kennels.
http://www.people.com/article/daycare-teacher-convicted-of-running-baby-fight-club
Yes, the fathers are not responsible in any way for how the kids are raised.
Fathers are providers. Mothers are caregivers. Libtards like you shouldn’t breed in any event.
Can’t make that mortgage in the good school district without mom out there hustlin’ too.
This isn’t Archie Bunker’s middle class.
baby fight club
Probably safer than football.
this market is now a buying opportunity according to every bull cnbc wheels out every hour.
Desperation begets desperate lies.
Thanks to satellite data, scientists have finally figured out why Greenland’s ice sheet is melting
Greenland’s vast ice sheet continues to melt, and thanks to two recently-launched satellites we’re beginning to understand why it’s happening so quickly. Researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison believe increased cloud cover over the ice sheet itself may be to blame for up to a third of the ice melt that is occurring, a new study indicates.
Clouds are like nature’s blanket, and their effect on temperature is one of the first things you learn in introductory meteorology courses. For an example, think of temperatures at night when skies are clear versus when it’s cloudy. On that clear night, the temperature falls quicker than on a night where skies are overcast. Clouds, by nature, trap heat in the atmosphere below them, causing temperatures to stay higher.
Professor Tristan L’Ecuyer says that his study found surface temperatures were up to three degrees higher as a result of increased cloud cover over the Greenland Ice Sheet. It does seem like the melt itself may be causing a feedback loop of its own: moisture in the air is a key component for cloud formation, which in turn traps heat in, which causes more melting, which puts more moisture in the air and allows more clouds to form.
http://news.yahoo.com/why-greenland-ice-sheet-melting-000737703.html
I don’t believe it, Ann Coulter told me otherwise.
Thanks to satellite data, scientists have finally figured out why Greenland’s ice sheet is melting
If it says it’s because of Bar-B-Queing I’m voting for Ted Cruz.
Study: Minimum Wage Increases Don’t Hurt the Restaurant Industry
Discussions of raising our nation’s poverty-level federal minimum wage are often met with the objection that paying workers more would kill the profitability of businesses like restaurants. Not so, says a new study.
“Increasing the minimum wage will cause more unemployment” is the prototypical “Econ 101″ trope that turns out to be much less straightforward (or wrong) in real life. The new study, out of Cornell University, examines the effect of minimum wage increases on the restaurant industry specifically—an industry that is labor-heavy, employs lots of low-wage workers, and can be relied upon to lobby intensely against any sort of minimum wage increases.
Here is your bite-sized takeaway of the findings:
[The] results of this study confirm previous findings, namely, that the relatively modest mandated increases in employees’ regular and tipped minimum wages in the past twenty years have not had large or reliable effects on the number of restaurant establishments or restaurant industry employment levels, although those increases have raised restaurant industry wages overall. Even when restaurants have raised prices in response to wage increases, those price increases do not appear to have decreased demand or profitability enough to sizably or reliably decrease either the number of restaurant establishments or the number of their employees. Although minimum wage increases almost certainly necessitate changes in restaurant prices or operations, those changes do not appear to dramatically affect overall demand or industry size. Furthermore, there is strong evidence that increases in the minimum wage reduce turnover, and good reason to believe that it may increase employee productivity as well.
http://gawker.com/study-minimum-wage-increases-dont-hurt-the-restaurant-1753143586?utm_campaign=socialflow_gawker_twitter&utm_source=gawker_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow
Wage increase does not always increase productivity. Just look at Congress.
Wage increase does not always increase productivity.
The point is that for 40 years, wages have greatly lagged increased productivity. With massive productivity gains only going to the rich.
And it’s time for wages to start to catch up to 40 years of increased productivity.
Here’s the math. Feel free to share.
http://retired.talkingpointsmemo.com/images/productivity.png
Lola,
Do you really believe wages are going to triple or quadruple to meet grossly inflated prices? Of course not. Prices will continue falling to meet wages.
Think Lola think!
What are your losses already this year?
Think Poet think!
Sherman Oaks, CA Housing Prices Crater 12% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/sherman-oaks-los-angeles-ca/home-values/
It’s just BS.
oil - $78 for the barrel.
http://www.amazon.com/SKOLNIK-Carbon-Steel-gallons-1-2mm/dp/B006P5RR8C/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1452788858&sr=8-3&keywords=oil+drum
Anyone on this blog remember Whitestone? They’re an REIT. Turns out they’re cat haters. They’re trying to kill a bunch of cats at a mall in Arizona. Never invest with these losers.
REITs as cat killers. The bubble never stops giving…
Traffic — Shouldn’t Have Took More Than You Gave:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JweZ_wzmifw
Sly & the Family Stone — Runnin’ Away:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUGGVQ9glwU
the Velvet Underground — Here She Comes Now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=–cSzOAx99w
Ratatat - Abrasive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7wkRET0hbo
Bizarre, haunting, absurd, beautiful. Bowie at his best, really:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kszLwBaC4Sw
Is the Chinese bear eating your 401(k) plan alive?
Investing mutual funds
Why Trouble in China is Hitting Your 401(k)
Pat Regnier
Aug. 24, 2015
You aren’t a currency trader. You don’t play in Shanghai’s boom-and-bust stock market. (It was only beginning to open to investors when the crash hit.) But if you have some money in a 401(k) or an IRA, you have a stake in the news coming out of China, even if you hardly think of yourself as a global investor.
The China bet in your mutual funds. If your portfolio includes an international-stock fund, it likely holds some Chinese companies that list shares on the Hong Kong or New York exchanges. For example, Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund, the biggest foreign-stock fund, holds a bit less than 5% of its assets in China. At least as important are such funds’ holdings in countries like Brazil that sell a lot of raw materials. As China’s resource-hungry manufacturing economy slows, “the No. 1 thing getting shellacked is commodities,” says Robert Johnson, director of economic analysis at Morningstar. That has hurt commodity-producing countries.
Ripple effects close to home. A significant chunk of U.S. investments are closely linked to China. About 10% of the S&P 500—the benchmark followed by most fund managers—is in energy or basic-materials stocks, and those are down sharply this year.
More broadly, China’s surprise move to devalue its currency “reinforced the perspective that all is not well in the Chinese economy,” says Harry Hartford, president of Causeway Capital Management. China may be slowing even faster than investors thought. American multinationals hoping to sell to a rising Chinese consumer, particularly automakers, report that sales are slipping.
…
Are the markets safe yet for bears to come out of hibernation?
Recession fears behind market rout
Patti Domm
11 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
Stocks cratered and bonds were bid higher in a risk-off selling spree amid fears that oil’s decline is signaling a slowdown that will end in a bear market and recession.
In the worst sell-off of the correction so far, the Dow fell more than 390 points Friday to 15,988, below 16,000 for the first time since October. The S&P 500, off nearly 2.3 percent, is now down 8.1 percent since the start of the new year. The S&P closed at 1876, but fell below last year’s low of 1,867.
“I think this (selling) is ahead of the long weekend,” said John Canally, LPL Financial economist and market strategist. Currencies, oil and U.S. stock, bond and Treasury futures trade on Monday — the Martin Luther King holiday — but the stock markets are closed. “China releases a bunch of data Monday night, and I think that’s part of it. Oil is a catalyst. But the only thing new this morning is oil.”
Emerging markets skidded, and many commodities, like copper and platinum, were slammed. The dollar was weaker against the euro, but emerging currencies fell hard against it. The Mexican peso, for example, was off 2.3 percent.
“The S&P may go down and break 1,800,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. “The whole world is scared we’re headed for a recession and a bear market. What’s going on is people are finally fearful and valuations are finally getting closer to 16 times earnings.”
A bear market is a 20 percent decline from the highs. For the S&P, that means 1,707.78. The Nasdaq is now 14.6 percent off its highs and it would be in bear market territory if it hit 4,185. The bear level on the Dow would be 14,681.
…
U.S. stocks post worst 10-day start to a year in history
Published: Jan 15, 2016 4:28 p.m. ET
Dow industrials sinks nearly 400 points
Markets can’t get around a wall of China worry
By Joseph Adinolfi and Barbara Kollmeyer, Markets reporters
U.S. stocks closed sharply lower Friday, locking in the worst 10-day start to a calendar year ever, as oil prices plunged and investors worried about slowing growth in the U.S.
During the course of the session, the S&P 500 broke below its Aug. 24 low—which several market strategists said would be tantamount to a major sell signal—to trade at its lowest level since October 2014. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was briefly down as much as 537 points.
…