Bits Bucket for January 19, 2016
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Are China stimulus prospects buoying your optimism?
Marketwatch dot com
Perma-bear Marc Faber says China growth is 4%, not 6.9%
By Sara Sjolin
Published: Jan 19, 2016 6:55 a.m. ET
‘Dr. Doom’ puts true figure at closer to 4%
Bloomberg
Marc Faber is questioning the accuracy of China’s GDP growth numbers.
The highly anticipated economic growth data for China are out, and while markets are celebrating the prospect of more stimulus, analysts — including perma-bear Marc Faber — are again questioning the trustworthiness of the numbers.
Official figures released Tuesday showed China’s GDP growth dropped to 6.8% in the fourth quarter and to 6.9% in 2015 as a whole. Those readings marked the slowest annual pace of expansion in 25 years, and a larger-than-expected slowdown in the world’s second largest economy.
But in an interview with CNBC, Faber — publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report — said the Chinese economy isn’t at all growing as fast as the country’s government suggests. Instead, the investor known as “Dr. Doom” puts the growth figure at about 4%.
“An economy is very complex, and you have some sectors of an economy expanding and some sectors contracting [...] My sense is that at very best, the economy is growing at around 4% per annum, but it could be lower,” Faber said in the interview.
The investor cited concerns about China’s “colossal debt bubble” and slowing exports as the basis of his more-downbeat assessment.
…
They overbuildt for years. They stole demand from the future and the future is now.
Too much debt and money printing. They imported inflation from us to sell us cheap goods at walmart and the dollar stores.
I do not trust their numbers at all.
And now Wal-Mart, China’s distributor, is shuttering many stores. Good riddance.
I still like the dollar stores, though. As Mafia has said, they’re Wally World’s competition.
yeah you just have to be selective what you buy in there.
dollar general is expanding a lot.
A lot of people thinking shopping at certain grocery stores is like a status symbol. They dont want to be seen in a dollar store by their friends.
‘ have to be selective’ you’re right about that, lots of close to expiring items.
there’s one near here I’ll bop into for some things, like reading glasses, super inexpensive but not flimsy or cheap. They also have a lot of smoking pipes and stuff which is kinda weird for a dollar store.
The problem with that retail sector is the amount of toxic junk they sell. Granted, toxic stuff is in all retail, but I read a report (active in Breast Cancer Prevention groups) and it was worse in the dollar price point sector.
Plastics (have hormone disruptors), kitchen glasses and kitchen ceramics (many time high lead content and toxic coating) are bad news.
I like the dollar sector, but I am selective to be effective as well.
I read “Slow Death By Rubber Duck” and the new book “Toxin-Toxout” and it woke me up.
what sort of junk at a Dollar Store could you not live with out?
I wish Americans would buy less Chinese junk
“I wish”
Wish in one hand and $hit in the other and see which fills up faster.
Dollar stores and Wal-Mart sell small trial sizes of OTC meds. When you’re stocking multiple zombie go-bags, buying multiple tubes/bottles of neosporin or anti-itch or Pepto at $3-4 each adds up to a lot of $$ fast.
Wish in one hand and $hit in the other and see which fills up faster.
Is that your family motto?
Don’t take falling prices personal my friend.
“Wish in one hand and $hit in the other and see which fills up faster.”
My husband uses that phase, and will substitute pray in lieu of wish, depending on the situation. His Midwestern (KS) roots are still in him.
A little crude, but such a great phase. “The rocks in his head, fit the holes in hers.” is my fav.
Lola’s a Jayhawk too. Is there something you’re not telling us?
Four percent growth will probably be the best in the world this year.
The market cap of the USA stock market is about 19.7 trillion.
Guess who is #2?
Japan at 3 trillion.
That is pretty d@m amazing isnt it?
I’m not sure if it’s amazing. It could be interesting. I guess that I don’t much about investments in Japan. They probably don’t have a lot of companies like Amazon, with the very P/E ratios. On the other hand, with their aging population, it could be that a lot of people with money have it invested in low-yield government bonds.
In stimulus we trust.
Marketwatch dot com
China stocks really as GDP triggers expectations of Beijing stimulus
By Chao Deng
Published: Jan 19, 2016 3:23 a.m. ET
Australia, Japanese markets also rise on Beijing bet
Reuters
Construction workers in Shanghai on a break.
China’s stock markets staged a broad rally Tuesday, despite the world’s second-largest economy posting its weakest annual growth rate in a quarter century.
The 6.9% GDP growth rate for last year came as a bit of comfort to investors — who had feared worse and now hope the government will ramp up stimulus.
The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP, +3.22%) closed up 3.2% — recording its first back-to-back session increases this year, with gains picking up in the afternoon. Worries about slowing China growth, mixed policy signals from authorities, and a drop in global oil prices contributed to the country’s largest stock index falling last Friday into a bear market, defined as a drop of 20% or more from a recent high.
Meanwhile, the smaller Shenzhen Composite Index (399106, +3.57%) was up 3.6% on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq-style ChiNext Composite Index (399102, +3.62%) also climbed 3.6%.
Elsewhere in the region, markets also ended ahead, with Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average (NIK, +0.55%) up 0.6% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (XJO, +0.91%) rising nearly 1%. Both have been flirting with bear market territory. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi index (SEU, +0.60%) advanced 0.6%.
…
Right now, for example, today’s price of oil is a lot lower than it was expected to be this time last year so any hedging done by an oil company is very valuable. Reading the 2013-14 accounts of one North Sea producer recently, I noted that it was boasting of having fixed an average price of $68/barrel for about 90 per cent of its expected 2016 production.
Read more: http://www.scotsman.com/news/peter-jones-oil-slump-brings-black-times-indeed-1-4004681#ixzz3xgnTdRvp
Follow us: @TheScotsman on Twitter | TheScotsmanNewspaper on Facebook
Two questions. One when the hedges Right now, for example, today’s price of oil is a lot lower than it was expected to be this time last year so any hedging done by an oil company is very valuable. Reading the 2013-14 accounts of one North Sea producer recently, I noted that it was boasting of having fixed an average price of $68/barrel for about 90 per cent of its expected 2016 production.
Read more: http://www.scotsman.com/news/peter-jones-oil-slump-brings-black-times-indeed-1-4004681#ixzz3xgnTdRvp
Follow us: @TheScotsman on Twitter | TheScotsmanNewspaper on Facebook
Two questions. One how bloody is this going to get when the hedges expire? Two who is catching that lose, it must be eye watering at current prices?
Don’t know who is catching the losses, but they appear to be worsening.
Marketwatch dot com
Oil market could ‘drown’ in oversupply, IEA warns
By Sara Sjolin
Published: Jan 19, 2016 4:52 a.m. ET
Energy watchdog says prices could go even lower
Reuters
Iranian oil is seen as adding more pressure on an already oversupplied oil market.
The selloff in oil could get even worse in 2016, as the energy market grapples with excessive oversupply, a strong dollar and a weak global economy, the International Energy Agency has warned.
In its monthly oil report released Tuesday, the energy watchdog warned that the market is poised for a third straight year of supply exceeding demand, due to those factors. That will lead to “enormous strain” on the system’s ability to absorb the pressure, it said.
“While the pace of stock building eases in the second half of the year, as supply from non-OPEC producers falls, unless something changes, the oil market could drown in oversupply,” the IEA said in the report. “It could go lower.”
On Monday, oil prices hovered around the $28 a barrel mark on news sanctions on Iran were being lifted. That put oil futures down more than 20% since the beginning of the year.
The end of sanctions allows Iran to once again start selling its oil on the international energy markets. The IEA said Iran is expected to add around 300,000 barrels a day of additional crude by the end of the first quarter and about 600,000 barrels by mid-year. This would offset the expected 600,000 drop in supply from producers outside of OPEC.
This means global oil supply could exceed demand by 1.5 million barrels a day in the first half of 2016, the IEA said.
…
go long commodities and energy. Dollar cost average in. Dont blow your wad all at once.
You will thank me later.
When yellen has to crank up the printing presses again the dollar will fall hard.
Why? Commodities and energy are cratering and have a very long way to the bottom get.
$25/barrel oil is my start time….
Let’s assume $25 is the bottom(it’s lower). It’s going to hang at the bottom for a very long time.
I can hang at the bottom a long time collecting 3.5%+ dividends
Mutual funds or ETF’s? I am going to start buying too.
Waiting for Iran to dump their oil on the market and the frackers to shut down.
I bought some oil yesterday…… $1.30 gal. I expect to buy more next week at $1.15.
Go to cash and stay there.
A lot of jobs that were supported by high prices of just about everything are destined to vanish and after they vanish the cash flow that the jobs generated will also vanish.
Vanishing cash flow adds value to any cash that’s left.
A reminder …
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V
Can anyone produce another macro time series besides M2 Velocity which has steadily trended down since Q3 1997?
M2 Velocity and the Baltic Dry Index may both be somewhat misleading, and in a similar way. A lot of excess money in the banking system is parked in reserves at the Fed. This makes the M2 low, but may hide the fact that there is still a “normal” amount of money moving through the economy.
Same with shipping: a lot of excess shipping was built during the last decade, so shipping rates may be very low even while there is a “normal” (non-bubble-level) amount of goods being shipped.
Landing | Fri Jan 15, 2016 11:28am GMT
COLUMN-U.S. freight volume falls for first time in almost three years: Kemp
(John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
By John Kemp
LONDON, Jan 15
Freight volumes in the United States have fallen year on year for the first time since 2012 and before that the recession of 2009, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
The total volume of freight moved by road, rail, pipeline, inland waterways and as air cargo in November 2015 was 1.1 percent lower than in the corresponding month a year earlier.
Freight demand growth has been slowing since the start of last year but the slowdown intensified in the second half and November marked the first time that year-on-year growth turned negative.
Volumes have been hit by a combination of factors. Coal shipments to power producers have fallen as a result of cheaper natural gas and stricter environmental regulations.
Exports of manufactured products and basic commodities are down thanks to a stronger dollar which has made U.S. producers less competitive in global markets.
Farmers have delayed shipping some grains, especially corn and soy beans, in the hope that prices will recover in future.
Manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers have cut new orders as they struggle to reverse excess inventories built up as a result of over-ordering in 2014 and early 2015.
Freight shipments related to oil, gas and mining have tumbled as the plunge in commodity prices forces a widespread slowdown in drilling and quarrying.
Total traffic on major U.S. railroads fell 2.5 percent last year, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR).
Rail freight volumes were lower in 6 of 11 categories, including coal, farm products, forest products, metals, minerals, and petroleum and refined fuels, and the downturn deepened in the second half of 2015.
…
Just be sure you have physical cash because bail ins are on the way. When the USD ATM machines spit out nothing your lettuce will be worth a lot. Bitcoin debit will work well too.
And keep pushing the envelope on your skills. You are never too old to learn and become skilled at useful new things.
Ethereum is my new study. It is a set of software tools for decentralized computing. Involves blockchain.
Freight volumes in the United States have fallen year on year for the first time since 2012
That’s my point. The BDI has been bumping along the bottom for those years, while freight volume in the US didn’t fall YOY until just recently. I’m not saying the BDI and M2 aren’t important indicators,just that they can be a little misleading due to surplus supply issues (of shipping and money, respectively).
Collapsing demand and massive excess supply Lola.
and buy a generator. when the electricity goes out and your freezer stops, you have only yourself to blame for now being prepared. Insulate your home. plant a vegetable garden.
Why?
Really bloody.
Not everyone has that much hedged. A lot of folks have their hedges burning off earlier, or have less hedged. The estimate I saw is that BKs in the first half of this year will be twice that of all of last year.
The other interesting piece that no one is talking about is the other side of that trade.
If someone has the ability to sell oil at $68 per barrel, then there is someone else who is forced to buy it at $68 per barrel.
Can you imagine how much gas prices are going to fall as those hedges burn off?
“If someone has the ability to sell oil at $68 per barrel, then there is someone else who is forced to buy it at $68 per barrel.”
I can’t help but wonder if Albuquerque Dan found himself on the wrong side of that trade.
So does the Goon Squad feel the Bern?
I may or may not vote this year. At this point I’ve stopped pretending that this country has a future, America’s only future is darkness and despair. What happens after I am dead is irrelevant.
I’ve been modeling my life (albeit with more expensive hobbies) on Bill in Los Angeles since I started reading this blog in graduate school, and the less I care about the future or about other people’s lives, the better my life gets.
With my remaining finite time alive, I do not make life decisions that are limiting. Whenever possible, I make life decisions that add options, that expand my freedom.
Slavery is voluntary, and voting solves nothing.
“If you love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude greater than the animating contest for freedom, go home from us in peace. We seek not your counsel, nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you; May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.”
― Samuel Adams
AFP is kinda cool
more lp than gop
Every so often I read somewhere that LPs are making a comeback. I don’t understand the attraction.
There’s a warmth to LPs compared to digital, similar to film.
Yeah… All those cracks and pops sound just great. Could it be you favor LP’s because they sound like your pipe?
I like the Rebel IPA.
“At this point I’ve stopped pretending that this country has a future, America’s only future is darkness and despair.”
I’m under the impression that the U.S. is headed toward the Latin American model, e.g., two classes with a huge gulf between them. Once the second amendment has been repealed the middle class will vanish at an increasing rate. Effeminate men and fat women, both sexless, are our future citizens. Could our only hope be a pestilence that winnows the fittest?
Look to Brazil to see our future.
We will all be Lola someday.
“Effeminate men and fat women, both sexless, are our future citizens. Could our only hope be a pestilence that winnows the fittest?”
Dang, so ugly but so true. I sometimes wonder myself if we’re in for some sort of worldwide uncurable epidemic. Population seems to have exceeded the planet’s carrying capacity.
Old news…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb
Once the second amendment has been repealed the middle class will vanish at an increasing rate.
That’s a pretty bizarre connection there. It could work the other way. We keep hearing these stories about how the gun nuts rush to buy guns and ammo whenever there is talk in DC about gun control. Most of those people are probably using credit cards for those impulse purchases. If they’re middle class, many will end up living in poverty during retirement.
Once the second amendment has been repealed the middle class will vanish at an increasing rate.
FWIW, the 300 million guns in circulation haven’t done a whole lot to keep jobs here or keep illegals out.
Take a look around the world. We’d better turn around this country, because there are none better.
You know who is optimistic? Immigrant economists. “If we can just hold on until the Baby Boomers die off, the rest of us can turn things around.”
Correct on point #1. At this time.
But, which “immigrant economists” might those be? You mean folks like the NAR’s Yun? Or the guys from India who like to tell us how it’s done and yet, India.
At this point I’ve stopped pretending that this country has a future, America’s only future is darkness and despair.
Ah, Goon. I understand the sentiment, but for the sake of future generations, and the children I brought into this world, we have to keep on keeping on and not give in to “darkness and despair,” ever.
but for the sake of future generations, and the children I brought into this world,
You do realize the goon’s reproductive capacities, right?
Eight years of “yes we can” and this is what we have…
————————–
The American Revolution - The Sequel
Zero Hedge - 01/18/2016
Those of us outside of the US watch it like Americans watch TV. It’s like a slow-motion car wreck that we observe almost daily, eager to see what’s going to happen next. We criticise the madness of it all, yet we can’t take our eyes off the unfolding drama. It has all the excitement of a blockbuster movie.
The national debt is, by far, the highest of any country in history.
The economic system is a house of cards, getting shakier every day.
The government has become mired in progress-numbing fascism and increasing collectivism.
The government is aggressively creating the world’s most organized police state.
The majority of the population have become wasteful, spendthrift consumers who apathetically hope that their government will somehow solve their problems.
The media consistently misrepresents international events, prodding the citizenry into accepting that the ongoing invasion of multiple other countries is essential.
Hope Is a Desire, Not a Plan
There are growing numbers of Americans who have accepted that the US is unravelling rapidly and is headed for a social, economic, and political collapse of one form or another. Some talk of a new revolution (but hopefully a peaceful one, of the Tea Party sort).
In the late eighteenth century, America was a largely agrarian collection of colonies. Colonists had to work hard just to survive, so the work ethic and self-reliance were paramount in the colonists’ makeup. They were a brave people who were accustomed to providing for themselves and physically fighting off those who would challenge them.
Colonists received no significant largesse from the British or local governments. No welfare, no social security, no Medicare or Medicaid, no benefits of any kind.
Colonists made their own daily decisions. They had no government schools or media telling them what to think or what choices to make. They relied on common sense and self-determination to guide their decisions and actions.
Today, of course, the opposite is true. Less than 2% of Americans are involved in agriculture. A mere 9% are actually employed in the production of goods. They are rarely directly involved in their own physical protection (Most, if not all, combat is overseas and fought by defence contractors or those who voluntarily serve the military).
Most Americans receive benefits of one type or another from their government. Most recipients regard these benefits as “essential” and could not get by without them.
Most Americans receive their opinions from the media. Although this is not apparent to many Americans, it’s glaringly clear to those outside the US who can only shake their heads at the misinformation proffered by the US media and the wholesale acceptance of this “alternate reality” by so many Americans.
My grandparents told me a little about what life was like when they were kids in the 1920s. Life was pretty miserable. It was probably even more miserable back in late eighteenth century.
I just like the irony of Putin’s zerohedge telling us we’re not getting the straight story and our economy is screwed.
ZeroHedge and CNN are reporting falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels which accelerate the economy.
My grandparents told me of life in America in the 1920s too.
The schools worked - even for the very poor.
Housing was affordable
Medical care was affordable
There were jobs - lots of jobs for those who wanted to work hard
The government barely touched what you earned
People were proud to be Americans
There was a general optimism in the country
Criminals generally feared the law
Since government was limited and small, corruption tended to be limited and small
They has a lot less “stuff” than we do today.
Does lots of stuff make you happy?
The schools worked - even for the very poor.
Criminals generally feared the law
Since government was limited and small, corruption tended to be limited and small
Slept through history class, eh? Or is this the new Texas curriculum?
Hmmm….
Whom to believe?
Two sets of grandparents?
Or a union goon marxist history teacher?
FWIW, your grandparents only offered anecdotal information. Where I live crime is low, school budgets are low and test scores are good and our local government is small. I could very well tell my future grand children that 2016 was the bee’s knees.
I recall that 40-50 years ago we had riots and a “conservative” President had to resign in disgrace. I also seem to recall that during the Prohibition years there was rampant corruption and plenty of lawlessness. And I read that in old, pre-Marxist textbooks.
Out here in the “wild west,” there was no shortage of lawlessness, crime, and corruption back in the day.
Seattle has quite the colorful history . . . one madame had quite the influence, even contributing to the school system:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lou_Graham_(Seattle_madame)
My grandparents all lived through the great depression and I’ve heard a lot of stories. My mom didn’t even have indoor plumbing until 1952 out on the farm when she was growing up.
a 5% average growth rate would make me happy
MOAR i Everything!!!
All your comments about the old days leaves out the most important element. ME.
Housing was affordable
A lot of people lived in crappy little houses or apartments with no electricity or indoor plumbing.
Medical care was affordable
Many treatments that we have today didn’t exist back then. Infectious diseases killed lots of children before the age of five. Even a wealthy guy like Franklin Delano Roosevelt was crippled by polio.
A lot of people lived in crappy little houses or apartments with no electricity or indoor plumbing.
A lot of people live in crappy little houses or apartments with no cable tv and cell service…… and prices are grossly inflated and unaffordable.
Many treatments that we have today didn’t exist back then. Infectious diseases killed lots of children before the age of five. Even a wealthy guy like Franklin Delano Roosevelt was crippled by polio.
You’re backpedalling from the fact that medical services are rigged, price fixed and grossly inflated.
I’m not backpedaling. You should stop using that word. Health care in America is expensive, but the situation is much better than it was 100 years ago.
There were jobs - lots of jobs for those who wanted to work hard
Regarding this - the jobs often paid quite badly. Many kids had to leave school at the age of 13 or whatever to help support the family. Sometimes they got dangerous jobs in factories or mines or whatever.
Read.Study.Learn.SnowFlake.
Labor Force Participation Rate Plummets To 37 Year Low; Jobless Population Soars To Record High
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
My Grandparents told me stories about the ’20s, too. Heartbreaking poverty, but also families pulling together and neighbors helping each other out. Adversity tends to focus people’s minds and souls on what really matters.
My grandparents told me a little about what life was like when they were kids in the 1920s
The standard of living back then, contrary to what some romantics like to believe, was low. And then the Great Depression began. That was a generation that learned to do without.
Lysander Spooner’s birthday today. The greatest American patriot your government schools never told you about.
http://praxeology.net/LS-NT-6.htm
Also Dolly Parton
http://www.wbir.com/news/local/dolly-parton-celebrates-her-70th-birthday/18111147
A failed real estate huckster and failed lawyer:
“After a disappointing legal career – his radical writing seems to have kept away potential clients – and a failed career in real estate speculation in Ohio, Spooner returned to his father’s farm in 1840.[4]”
Wikipedia
Everyone fails at something.
Why didn’t you mention his success in his post office company?
Oh I get it, your agenda.
My agenda is waking you up. I know I won’t be in your will, but being a miser is no life.
What happens when you allow far-left unelected judges to make the most important “laws” of a nation…
———————-
7 things you didn’t know about Jane Roe of Roe v. Wade
liveactionnews.org ^ | January 19, 2016 | Natalie Brumfield
Perhaps you haven’t heard much regarding Jane Roe of Roe v. Wade. If you’re like me, only 8 years ago did I know that the famous leading plaintiff in the case that legalized abortion in the United States is actually a woman by the name of Norma McCorvey. “Jane Roe” was her given pseudonym for the case.
1. She never had an abortion.
2. She asked her doctor to put her in touch with an adoptive/foster attorney. That attorney put her in touch with pro-aborts.
Those two women were Sarah Weddington (the attorney) and Linda Coffee (representing the plaintiffs) looking for a vulnerable pregnant woman who would sign their paperwork for the monumental case.
3. She agreed to be the leading plaintiff for “free pizza & beer.”
4. She never stepped foot in a courtroom.
5. She read about the legalization of abortion in the newspaper. She was never contacted after signing.
I met with them (Weddington and Coffee) three or four times. I signed the affidavit that brought Roe v. Wade into being on March 17, 1970, and I found out about Roe v. Wade just like everyone else did. I read it in the newspaper.
6. In 1995, Norma McCorvey declared herself pro-life.
7. She has attempted to have the case reopened and overturned.
Her case was dismissed by the Fifth Circuit appeals court; The U.S. Supreme Court subsequently denied review. In 1998 and 2005 she testified before Congress about the injustices of abortion and the deceit underlying Roe v. Wade.
Get out the coat-hangers! Looks like we got us a forced child-birth proponent.
Let me guess, you believe that a Jewish guy from Nazareth who maybe lived 2,000 years ago is the god of all the universe including the billions of planets and suns that we have yet to imagine. Is that sort of correct?
Let me guess, you are happy as long as the political viewpoints you identify with are with are advanced by any means possible.
And you will wonder later, as you burn in the camps, how you got there.
Let me guess, you mention burning in camps, more or less at random.
And you believe in nothing but the right to destroy life… which is more sad, those following the teachings of a “Holy Man” killed for his beliefs by a decadent and corrupt Empire or those who believe in nothing but furthering their selfish impulses with nothing to limit their appetites but a mad, power hungry state.
“his beliefs by a decadent and corrupt Empire”
You might want to read up on the Catholic Church through-out history. Talk about decadent and corrupt.
By the way, what has this to to with the Housing Bubble?
Just another ultra-right pressure issue that affects .0001% of the population.
Free pizza and beer? I guess that calls into question the Supreme Court decision.
Can’t wait ’til that opening bell. To the Moon, Alice, To the Moon! Sell the rip!
Engineered so the big swingin’ d*cks can take a profit, or at least minimize some losses.
Rip starting to fizzle. At this time.
With sufficient Viagra, they will get it up for a day. But given the aging bull, I doubt they will keep it up for long.
Here’s what the stock charts for various groups looks like …
http://finviz.com/groups.ashx?g=sector&v=410&o=nam
Nowhere to hide.
Trump Says He’ll Get Apple to Manufacture Products in the U.S.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said he will push for companies including Apple Inc. to bring manufacturing back to the United States.
“Make America great again,” Trump said in a speech at Liberty University in Virginia. “We’re going to get things coming. We’re gonna get Apple to start building their damn computers and things in this country instead of in other countries.”
Apple does research and design at its headquarters in Cupertino, Calif. but now manufactures most of its iPhones, iPads and Macintosh computers through partners in countries such as China. Apple made and assembled many products in the U.S. until the late 1990s, and then shifted manufacturing to Asia to take advantage of the region’s industrial base and lower labor costs.
Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook has made attempts to bring manufacturing work back to the U.S., including a 2012 effort to invest $100 million in domestic capabilities. Still, he has said it’s difficult to make broad changes because of declining expertise in skills such as tool-and-die manufacturing in the U.S.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-19/trump-says-he-ll-get-apple-to-manufacture-products-in-the-u-s-
He’s banning pimples too.
AKA Trumples…
Even Talking About Reducing Drug Prices Can Reduce Drug Prices
Both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are pushing for lower prescription drug prices as part of their campaigns. Debates about whether and how to reduce drug prices aren’t new. But they rarely lead to legislative success.
Still, the mere threat of government price controls may have a moderating effect on drug prices. There’s strong evidence it did so as the ill-fated Clinton administration health plan was being developed in the early 1990s. Today, with the high price of drugs and proposals to address them so prominent in the news, there are early signs it may do so again.
Sara Fisher Ellison, an M.I.T. economist, and Catherine Wolfram, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, found evidence that pharmaceutical companies reduce growth in drug prices in response to political pressure. In the 1980s and early 1990s, drug prices grew at three times the rate of inflation. But, according to their study, rates of price growth fell to almost precisely the inflation rate by 1993, just as the Clinton health reform plan took shape.
As they are today, drug prices were a significant concern in the first few years of the 1990s and drew the attention of Congress. In 1990, under pressure from members of Congress, SmithKlein Beecham cut the price of Dyazide — a fluid retention and hypertension drug — by 11 percent. In 1991, as Congress considered several price control measures, Merck and Pfizer endorsed voluntary reductions in drug price growth to improve the industry’s reputation. In 1990, Merck, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Burroughs Wellcome, but not other big drug companies, favored increasing discounts for drugs sold to Medicaid programs.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/01/19/upshot/even-talking-about-reducing-drug-prices-can-reduce-drug-prices.html?rref=upshot&referer=http://www.bradford-delong.com/2016/01/procrastinating-on-january-18-2016.html&_r=0
Want to reduce drug prices?
Get government completely out of the health care insurance business.
Break the health care monopolies.
Allow market forces to push down prices. Way down.
For an example - It is now ILLEGAL for any American to buy lower priced drugs outside America and bring them into America for sale.
Bigger government can solve this…
Monopoly doesn’t mean much as a plural…
“Allow market forces to push down prices. Way down.”
BINGO
It feels like we are setting up for another plunge into the close today.
RIP Glenn Frey.
The golden age rock and rollers are all in their golden years. A lot are playing their last solo.
David Bowie was sad, but Glen Frey, was very very very sad. The Eagles are even loved by my 84 year old SIL. Such a versatile rock band, and they all seem like nice people.
Many of us have less time in front of us, then behind us.
Carpe Diem.
Smuggler’s Blues one of my faves.
RIP Glenn, thanks for the tunes.
“Many of us have less time in front of us, then behind us.”
And then there’s this …
https://magazine.good.is/infographics/humans-may-live-to-150
Which means … the longer you live the longer you may live. Or sumtin’ like that.
people will outlive their puny savings accounts.
I wonder how many seniors bought momo stocks like gopro looking for yield so they dont have to eat alpo? Now wall street has their money.
https://magazine.good.is/infographics/humans-may-live-to-150
They’ve been saying that for a long time.
combo
Great article, thanks.
I wonder if they calculated the cost of our toxic planet & food (cancer), general medical costs, and in what regions of the world will people live to 150? Too optimistic for my liking.
My paternal grandma lived to 104, and was ready to die. Her body was worn out, but her mind was as sharp as a tack. I miss her.
I’ll read the full article this evening.
Oddie -
I was fortunate enough to have seen the Eagles at Red Rocks way back when - I think it was 73. The place was barely 2/3 full as they had not really become ‘big’ in the big music sense having just a few years before played Tulagi on the Hill in Boulder - and what a sight. To hear those guys then - Bernie Leadon, Miesner, Frey and Henley was just amazing - those young harmonic voices singing Witchy Woman in the dark of the night under the stars - just magic.
RIP Glenn Frey.
“The golden age rock and rollers are all in their golden years.”
If the early baby boomers didn’t get killed in the Tet Offensive they typically did well.
What’s eating bitcoin?
The Wall Street Journal
Is bitcoin broken? Prominent developer cashes out
Published: Jan 17, 2016 7:23 p.m. ET
Cybercurrency roiled by network congestion issues
Bloomberg News
The price of bitcoin plunged 20% last week.
By Paul Vigna
A prominent bitcoin developer has labeled the currency a failed experiment, widening the rift over an arcane but critical technical issue that has divided the community for nearly a year.
“The fundamentals are broken, and whatever happens to the price in the short term, the long-term trend should probably be downwards,” developer Mike Hearn wrote on the blogging platform Medium. “I will no longer be taking part in bitcoin development and have sold all my coins.”
The fight stems from growing congestion on the bitcoin network caused by size limits within the currency’s ledger of transactions. If the limits aren’t raised, the result could be debilitating bottlenecks. But fixing it requires altering a system that has been profitable for those that use heavy computer power to record transactions.
Hearn has been a vocal proponent for expanding the size limits. The problem is bitcoin is open-source software, so any change has to be approved a majority of the community, and it hasn’t been able to agree.
This isn’t the first time somebody has written bitcoin’s obituary. What is different is this obit was being written by a prominent insider, and it hit a raw nerve in the community. The price of bitcoin, which had been stable for months, dropped sharply, down 20% last week to $358. The price regained some ground over the weekend, and many are still defending the currency in the wake of Hearn’s comments.
…
The problem is bitcoin is open-source software, so any change has to be approved a majority of the community, and it hasn’t been able to agree.
Sounds like they need a Fed!
All voluntaryists who don’t want to be told nuttin?
Old news.
Bitcoin VC is still strong.
Bitcoin died 89 times.
why did goldman hose us on oil prices for so long? I remember paying close to $5 / gallon for awhile based on the BS that we we running out of oil. No one ever looked into their scheme very hard.
We ARE running out of oil, just not in the near future.
Ehhhh…. no we’re not.
More oil is formed every minute of every day.
So, a woman I know, who has lots of family and friends in France tole me today that she is hearing of a lot of people moving from France to the US.
Apparently the reason quoted is that they have had enough of the political environment, etc., and that their quality of life is higher here.
I guess you do run out of other people’s money eventually.
Political environment = not being raped by a muslim “refugee?”
I have a feeling that that’s very anecdotal and that there won’t be that many French people moving to America. There are probably aren’t many visas available. There may be a lot of people in France who are dissatisfied with the political environment, but that’s true in America and probably every other country on the planet.
There are probably aren’t many visas available.
H1-B’s?
“So, a woman I know, who has lots of family and friends in France tole me today that she is hearing of a lot of people moving from France to the US.”
Now that’s a new angle, even for you Rental_Fraud. You come up with some doozies.
One more thing…..
Standin on the corner in Winslow Arizona, such a fine sight to see…
It’s a girl my lord in a flat bed ford slowing down to take a look at me…
Take it easy…..take it easy….
This was THE anthem for all of us testosterone laced young punks when in High Screwel. What a memory Mr. Frey’s death brought back.
Enjoy your day gang. Live as if it is your last.
“He attributes the price drop to generally weaker economic sentiment globally as well as in Singapore.
don’t dis Singapore
they’re hosed and unemployment is 2.2%
why?
no unemployment payments
no 99′rs
they’re hosed and unemployment is 2.2%
I suppose it depends on how one counts unemployment in Singapore. I wouldn’t be surprised if those who can’t find work simply leave and go back wherever they came from. Say you’re Malaysian and you lose your job it might make sense to head home when the rent comes due.
Also consider that when we had no unemployment insurance we still hit 25% unemployment during the great depression so there might be something more to Singapore’s low unemployment numbers than meets the eye.
Bernie wants to bring the cost of health insurance down. this is good! Falling prices are good for the economy.
fiscal conservatives approve
Palin supports Trump this week. Big brain crew in full swing.
Want in one hand and $hit in the other and see which fills up quicker.
Speaking of $hitting, Palin’s son had some unfortunate timing with his appearance in the MSM at about the same time his mom resurfaced.
News
Jan 19 2016, 8:54 pm ET
Sarah Palin’s Son Track Arrested on Domestic Violence Charges on Eve of Trump Endorsement
by Erin Calabrese
Less than 24 hours before she endorsed Donald Trump, Sarah Palin’s son was arrested on domestic violence charges, police in Wasilla, Alaska, said Tuesday.
Track Palin, the former governor and vice president candidate’s 26-year-old son, was arrested and charged with interfering with the report of a domestic violence, possession of a firearm while intoxicated and assault on his girlfriend, which are all misdemeanors, police said.
…
“Track and his girlfriend of one year had been arguing about her contact with an ex-boyfriend most of the day, even during a dinner at his sister’s house, before returning to the house where he lives with his parents, according to the court documents.”
Another success story living in his parent’s basement.
More good news for King Dollar. I hope you have more dollars saved than dollars borrowed.
“Hong Kong Dollar Plunges To Weakest Since Aug 2007″
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-19/hong-kong-dollar-plunges-weakest-aug-2007
“Dollar-based investors, when they buy foreign stocks, make two bets: that those stocks rise; and that the currency of those stocks at least remains stable against the dollar. When they catch it right, with both stocks and currency going up, the returns can be breath-taking. But the opposite happens when both go down, as they’ve been doing recently. And dollar-based investors are getting totally crushed.
So why can’t central banks step in and stem the bleeding and restart the good times?
The answer lies in the Eurozone: France is down 21% from the highs in April; Germany 23%; Spain 29%; and Italy takes the crown with a 45% plunge.
These are the big four economies of the Eurozone. In early 2015, the ECB has unleashed a massive wave of QE and inflicted negative deposit rates on the Eurozone in an effort to flog savers until their mood improves and to drive asset prices up into the sky to create that special wealth effect. That worked wonderfully during the run-up before the well-telegraphed QE and NIRP became reality. But since April, the wealth effect has reversed. The ECB has since enhanced QE, but stock market losses have only increased.
Turns out, our delicious central-bank alphabet soup of QE, ZIRP, and NIRP is losing its effectiveness in inflating stock prices. In fact, it may have the opposite effect. Also look at Japan and Sweden. Despite massive QE programs by their central banks, their stock markets have dropped 19% and 24% respectively.
There’s no longer any guarantee that QE, even a much hoped-for QE4 in the US, will re-inflate stock markets. That era has passed. Central banks have lost their aura of omnipotence. And thus, they’ve lost their omnipotence.
However, when it comes to government bonds, central banks still rule; QE, ZIRP, and NIRP still pump up bond prices and repress yields. Hence the low yields prevailing in fiscally challenged countries such as Japan and Italy. But at the low end of corporate bonds in the US — the lower end of junk bonds — the bottom has already fallen out, and rot is creeping up the rating scale.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-18/dollar-based-investors-eviscerated-global-stocks
“<In A Post-Boom World, Auto Prices Will Fall”
(and the economy will accelerate like it always does when prices fall to dramatically lower and more affordable levels.)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-19/post-boom-world-auto-prices-will-fall
Let the incentives begin. Why buy today what you can buy tomorrow for a fraction of the cost?
“Imbeciles for Trump” has weighed in….
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/20/us/politics/donald-trump-sarah-palin.html?_r=0
I love it! I am going to run into the end zone with this. Mop up the HBBers lusting for Adolph Trump.
Bahahahahahahaha … Check this out, one puke in Chino Hills wins a pile of money in the lottery and everyone in the town acts as they are winners.
http://abc7.com/news/winning-15b-powerball-jackpot-ticket-sold-in-chino-hills/1158339/
There’s only one candidate talking about jailing bankers…
I own his soul just as I own everyone else’s.
Rising interest rates won’t effect demand. All is well, nothing to see here.
http://money.cnn.com/video/news/economy/2016/01/19/romans-julian-castro-housing.cnnmoney/index.html
yeah right
have any of u peons tried any of the beer from alpine brewery?
I had the duet and it is delicious.
beer advocate gives a world class rating with a 96 / 100 score.
Trump, always wanting to make his supporters happy, should go with Palin as VP, second choice should be a Kardashian.
Greatsinmple minds think alikeDonald Trump…. An esteemed statesman with a squad of sexy strumpets.
You trump haters should be cheering this. Instead you are scared. It crushes Cruz.
I’m not a Trump hater, but you have to be kidding. Don’t you realize that Palin turned out to be the kiss of death for John McCain’s presidential run? And her family issues reared their ugly head at a most unfortunate time relative to the Trump endorsement.
Palin doesn’t have that “rubbery” look yet.
Illegal Immigrant Pleads Guilty to 2014 Sexual Assault on 10-Year-Old Girl
Rocha will serve five years in prison, then be deported, prosecutors said
Warner Todd Huston | Breitbart - January 19, 2016
Officials have accepted the plea of a 43-year-old illegal immigrant on charges that he sexually assaulted a ten-year-old girl in 2014.
Franklin County, Alabama court officials said Pedro Ramirez Rocha of Russellville pleaded guilty to second-degree assault.
Rocha was indicted last September on four counts of sexual abuse of a child under 12 after the girl’s family came forward.
Authorities said that the plea deal was approved with the agreement of the child’s parents, who hoped to avoid a lengthy trial. The parents said that they wanted to avoid further trauma to their little girl, now 11.