Bits Bucket for January 20, 2016
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Paying a mortgage is like the old Police song, it’s a hole in your life.
If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, it’s not affordable nor can you afford it.
would a ten year mortgage be acceptable under your regime?
Poet…. It’s acceptable to kick the can down the road for 3 generations. They’re your losses.
LMFAO
I will bury those crumb snatchers in debt!
degenerate.gambler.
If only they would give only me, and no one else a 60 yr loan. it is the monthly nut that matters.
Then stick with renting for half the monthly cost Lola.
Just because YOU have never experienced appreciation, dont expect the rest of us to fail. Timing is everything.
Don’t be a Lola.
Robert Shiller: “Housing Depreciates”
http://www.pragcap.com/robert-shiller-dont-invest-in-housing/
If you really want a hole in your life, try paying rent when you’re 68 with only a lucky ducky income.
With rents half the monthly cost of carrying depreciating house, what is the issue?
Washington Post real journalists report on conflicting formats of Sky Wizardry:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/us-ambassadors-comments-ignite-diplomatic-row-with-israel/2016/01/19/2fcca4b6-beb2-11e5-98c8-7fab78677d51_story.html
Here’s a suggestion, if you have such a problem with being called out as a racist apartheid state you can stop taking $4,500,000,000 of American taxpayer money every year.
Which will never happen, because Rapture.
FoxNewsHate website leads with 4 articles about ISIS right now.
No smaller government, less regulations, or lower taxes happening there.
The national debt is now twenty trillion dollars. Imagine how much taxpayer money would be saved if the United States shut down every base in, withdrew all foreign aid from, and militarily disengaged with the Middle East, forever.
And speaking of disengage, I’ll not comment on Trump/Palin, there’s enough of that on Breitbart and Salon now. Which by the way, provide essentially interchangeable narratives if you substitute the words Democrat and Republican.
P.S. don’t vote, you’re just wasting your time and giving them credibility…
The national debt is now twenty trillion dollars. Imagine how much taxpayer money would be saved if the United States shut down every base in, withdrew all foreign aid from, and militarily disengaged with the Middle East, forever.
In reality - not really that much. But it is a nice sound bite.
Entitlements: 60%+ of the Federal Budget
Defense: 17% of the Federal Budget
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget#/media/File:U.S._Federal_Spending_-_FY_2011.png
How much would your proposal save? Maybe 10% of the Defense Budget.
We would STILL have a massive deficit - every year.
FSA votes don’t come cheap.
as long as the net interest slice of the pies stays low the game continues.
Treasury yields wont be going higher for a long time.
The only reason interest of our debt is about 7% of federal spending is becuase of the fraud of artificially low interest rates.
If rates only went back to normal - the American government would be bankrupt.
Obama’s true legacy.
That is very true.
The only reason it all can continue is the printing press and rolling over of the debt.
It is like rolling over credit card debt to a new card. Eventually they have u trapped and the 0% offers quit coming in the mail.
Janet yellens true focus is managing the balance sheet.
The national debt is now twenty trillion dollars. Imagine how much taxpayer money would be saved if the United States shut down every base in, withdrew all foreign aid from, and militarily disengaged with the Middle East, forever.
Bases in other places could also be shut down. Once that was done, the size of the armed forces could be significantly reduced. That should be result in savings much greater than 10%.
Bases in other places could also be shut down. Once that was done, the size of the armed forces could be significantly reduced. That should be result in savings much greater than 10%.
The data says no. You would save about $30 billion in O and M per year. That doesn’t even cover obama’s vacations.
Joking aside - that won’t even move the needle with the average obama $700 billion annual deficits…
Operations and maintenance $258.277 billion
Military Personnel $153.531 billion
Procurement $97.757 billion
Research, Development, Testing & Evaluation $63.347 billion
Military Construction $8.069 billion
Family Housing $1.483 billion
Other Miscellaneous Costs $2.775 billion -
Atomic energy defense activities $17.424 billion
Defense-related activities $7.433 billion
Total Spending $610.096 billion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States
Mirror mirror on the wall. Who is the biggest deficit spending president of them all.
Why…. why it’s Barack Obama!
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=200
Face it. The US is broke and has been for years. It is for this reason they find new and innovative ways to bleed everyone dry, i.e, Obamacare(less).
If the army and the navy, etc. were cut in half, lots of money would be saved in many categories that you listed, like personnel, housing and procurement.
won’t.move.the.needle.
they should cut off the food stamp checks before they weaken the military.
This debate is actually a really really big deal. Both sides agree in theory, but not on what the truthful facts are. This is why facts matter and Mikey is doing such shuffling to not have the facts told. 2b posted actual facts and data and links, where is any fact to say otherwise. Is this liberal core truth that it is the military costing so much money true or not?
Is this another one of those things (like number of MJ possessors in prison, welfare only $150 a month, illegals are 11 million and declining, or cops killing innocent people) that turns out to be horseshit upon close scrutiny of the data?
I wasn’t doing any “such shuffling to not have the facts told.” There’s no way that I could prevent 2banana from stating whatever he wants. That’s just nonsense.
IIRC, most of the government spending is on Social Security and Medicare, laws which were duly passed by Congress back in the day. The only way Obama can avoid these expenses is to be “King Obama” and not enforce those laws.
wars are expensive. remember, Reagan tripled the deficit.
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/deficit-shrinks-1-trillion-obama-era
The Republican rhetoric was ridiculously wrong. We don’t have a trillion-dollar deficit; the deficit isn’t the ultimate problem; and it’s not growing.
Strong growth in individual tax collection drove the U.S. budget deficit to a fresh Obama-era low in fiscal 2015, the Treasury Department said Thursday.
For the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 the shortfall was $439 billion, a decrease of 9%, or $44 billion, from last year. The deficit is the smallest of Barack Obama’s presidency and the lowest since 2007 in both dollar terms and as a percentage of gross domestic product.
I watched those two on stage yesterday, Sarah jabbering and gesticulating, and Donald standing there with a ‘I wish this crazy person would stop ranting” expression. Doesn’t look like a Trump/Palin ticket is in the cards.
Sarah Palin is a rank imbecile. If Trump picks her as VP, it’s all over for his campaign.
Having her speak at his rally was a hhhhhuge error in judgement.
Trump has noticed the more outrageous he talks, the more his poll numbers go up. picking up Palin is a natural progression. My guess is that Trump picked her up solely to draw the god-and-guns wing of the base away from Cruz et al during the primaries. If Trump wins the nom, he’ll drop her butt immediately and pivot left to draw Hillary voters in the general. Sister Sarah, and her disciples, are being used.
Very bad choice by Trump to have her on stage. Not as smart as he thinks he is. Doh!
Why not get involved fcta.org. Americans for prosperity
Lp.org
Bring your musket
Never mind presidential politics, here’s something happening in Congress that actually matters:
http://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/266354-lawmakers-set-to-introduce-encryption-commission-bill
A “bipartisan” effort to give police state pigs a backdoor around encryption, just keep clicking those Drudge Report and Huffington Post links and forget there’s a Fourth Amendment, it’s exactly what these statist pigs want you to do.
“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush
FEAR. Another “bipartisan” production:
http://www.infowars.com/feds-hype-non-existent-terror-threat-ahead-of-super-bowl-50/
Remember in 2001-2002 how the federal government actually recommended that you buy duct tape and plastic to seal yourself off from an anthrax attack (this happened simultaneously with Congress’ passage of the PATRIOT Act)? Remember the color-coded “threat level” always displayed in the corner of the TeeVee screen on Fox and CNN? Do you remember how this country got lied into invading Iraq in 2003?
Pigmen gonna pig. And the American electorate in 2016 are so f*ing dumb they deserve everything they’ve got coming.
Even though we all know that Kurt Nimmo is a genius, he couldn’t possibly know whether threats to the Super Bowl are non-existent. He’d have to have sources within the FBI. He also states that the federal government characterized the massacre at the Charleston church as a hate crime. That sounds quite reasonable.
As long as I am allowed to buy a gun to protect my family from ISIS, I am a free man!
When will the flight to quality begin in earnest?
http://www.kitco.com/market/
Does the FED want a flight to quality? Would it help them unwind all those treasuries or does it really matter anymore?
I bet the balance sheet expands even more because it doesn’t seem to matter how much money is created to buy the treasuries. Its as simple as hitting the easy button.
Gold is the best antidote to the Fed, which means at some point they’ll likely try to tax or confiscate it out of existence for the Proles.
Russian Ruble sinking like a stone. Will Russia be the first BRICS country to default on its foreign debt?
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Currency/USDRUB?countrycode=US
That’s unpossible! We were told by one of our illustrious participants here that Russia is in great financial shape.
When will Yellen unleash QE4 and NIRP?
“Even though the Fed’s holdings of Treasurys won’t rise and remain flat at about $2.5 trillion, the Fed’s reinvestment mandate means a return to active POMO which also means that there will remain a backstop net buyer for 1 of every 2 bonds issued by the US government.
For now, we leave it to Mark MacQueen, co-founder of Sage Advisory Services Ltd., which manages $12 billion in Austin, Texas, to explain precisely why those who are long assets could care less about nominal rate hikes but are terrified of the Fed’s actual balance sheet unwind: “The Fed tightening gave us little worry, but the unwind of the balance sheet gives us major worries. The Fed is keenly aware that the balance sheet has a much greater impact on the overall yield levels in the markets going forward than raising rates.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-19/and-you-thought-qe-was-over-fed-will-monetize-half-years-us-treasury-issuance
And there’s your answer why the Fed is hiking instead of winding down its gargantuan $4.5 trillion balance sheet: it might actually achieve the intended effect.
Snapping up trillions in long-term Treasurys and MBS, then holding them off the market indefinitely has the effect of driving up prices and suppressing the yields. This is Econ 101, not rocket science.
wow, you are acting smart today. That was not the point of the article.
I remember some pukes on here saying that the FED wasn’t buying bonds anymore.
It is a perpetual balance sheet.
You’ll know when by a big spike in the price of gold, among other signs.
“As for the fact that the historical relationships between asset classes (volatilities and correlations) that are used to construct optimal “risk-parity” funds in order that ‘risk’ is balanced and hedged across bonds and stocks have all broken down dramatically causing funds like Bridgewater’s vaunted “All Weather” portfolio to sink, Dalio warned that if assets remain correlated and things continue to move in the “wrong” direction, “they’ll be a depression.”
That, he concluded, is why MOAR QE, and thus a return to the “full-Krugman” regime, is a virtual certainty.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-20/if-assets-remain-correlated-theyll-be-depression-ray-dalio-says-qe4-just-around-corn
Time to hit the easy button again!
They’ll be a depression, comrades.
Will a Russian default be the catalyst for the next global financial crisis?
https://www.rt.com/business/329535-ruble-record-low-dollar/
Default on what? To who? Sometimes defaulting is a good thing to shore up your balance sheet.
Russia: Debt-to-GDP ratio = 12.2%
These countries should pop first:
Japan 174.3125
Zimbabwe 129.4165
Greece 158.339
Saint Kitts and Nevis 113.481
Portugal 121.3
Antigua and Barbuda 109.575
Lebanon 131.04
Jamaica 135.029
Italy 114.654
Iceland 93.565
Eritrea 120.887
Ireland 110.162
Singapore 109.782
Grenada 111.2835
United States 80.18
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt-to-GDP_ratio
What’s their current GDP? I bet it’s a lot lower than when the 12% was calculated. And how much is foreign denominated?
Word of the day:
Etherium
i kinda like the word thorium……imagine nuclear energy and when the rods are used up, you cant build bombs with them…or cars that may never use gas.
http://energyfromthorium.com/
How do you hide under a bed outside in Alaska in January?
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/track-palin-sarah-palin-adult-son-arrested-alaska-article-1.2502319
DRUNKARDS
Thugs.
Pretty bad timing for that incident, as it is sucking up a lot of MSM oxygen from Sarah Palin’s endorsement of The Donald.
Trump brought in a ringer to crush Cruz, the only one even close to him. Iowa is not an election, closer to a rigged carny game. And still they can’t stop Trump. His winning the first three in a walk greatly increases his odds and he knows it.
She’s liability. He already had the moron vote, and her antics will hurt him with everybody else.
He got the McCain curse.
It’s smart business Lola. And it enrages you.
Apparently rage makes me chortle.
Apparently rage makes me
chortlechoke.Fixt for you.
Funny how liberals worry about a son of a D level celebrity running for no office.
The husband of candidate running for the most powerful office in land? Who is accused of rape, sexual assault and using the powers of the government to cover it up? Crickets…
It’s hard to ignore the terrible timing of Palin’s Trump endorsement with her son’s even bigger news. Where does the Republican party find these people?
Is it time to wheel out monica lewinsky for trump?
That’s on hold until when Hillary gets the nomination.
Palin looks less “rubbery” than Clinton.
Somehow I don’t think the GOP controls Palin’s actions in the least.
I think they would rather have her just go away.
Precisely. And Trump too but I’m thinking they’re not going away anytime soon.
Bwa-ha-ha-ha-HAH! Let’s not forget the Kennedys. Especially the Senator who drowned his girlfriend, and went on to have a long and illustrious career in Congress, effed over the country with his poisonous immigration legislation and was lionized when he kicked the bucket.
I remember hearing plenty about David Duke, yet very little about the KKK in West Virginia.
It’s possible that the KKK didn’t do much in West Virginia. The black population is only 3% of the total.
“Track and his girlfriend of one year had been arguing about her contact with an ex-boyfriend most of the day, even during a dinner at his sister’s house, before returning to the house where he lives with his parents, according to the court documents.”
Another success story living in his parent’s basement.
Combat veteran. Some people have problems adjusting after they were fortunate enough to return home. Have a little empathy for your damaged neighbors and the the sacrifices they have made on your behalf.
In 2008 there were widely circulated rumors that Track was sent into the Army to avoid a life of *ahem* using. So he may have been already damaged pre-combat. That said, he’s probably even more screwed up now.
Plenty of rumors and plenty of facts directly concerning people who are actually running for office, married to people who are running for office or are employed by people who are running for office. I won’t join in on these sickening vituperative attacks on this particular poor bastard, not because I support Palin but because this fellow has nothing to do with the entire circus. His commanding officer called him a good trooper that preferred to be anonymous. We are all damaged to some extent and indeed it doubtful that his tour in a war zone did him or anyone else much good. Would you have traded places with him, Oxide? Someone has to do the dirty work. Someone always has to do the dirty work.
Trump? You betcha!
Trump-Palin or Clinton-Trump? Which of these tickets seems more inevitable?
Trump would never be VP. His ego’s too big. I doubt he’d pick Palin for VP either. No crossover appeal. Her job is to push him past Cruz. If he’s smart he keeps her quiet after that. If he’s serious he’ll pick someone like Webb for VP if he gets the nomination.
Palin VP is wishful liberal thinking. She’s just an ice pick to Cruz. The Lolas are easily identifiable.
Take THAT, Nikki Haley!
Who is Nikki Haley?
Did Northern Virginia housing just get cheaper? A little bit
WASHINGTON — Northern Virginia remains one of the most expensive places to buy a house or a condo in the D.C. region, but, by one measure, prices got a little cheaper last month.
The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors says the average price of a home that sold in December was $551,451, down 3.71 percent from a year ago. Even so, the median price, a more accurate measure of selling prices, was down just 0.2 percent from a year earlier to $479,900.
The median selling prices in both Arlington and Fairfax counties were down more than 2 percent.
Sales remained brisk in Northern Virginia last month, with contract signings up more than 10 percent from December 2014, and for all of 2015, closed Northern Virginia home sales saw an overall increase of 9 percent.
“Considering we have a year with new closing laws, a slower-than-usual market in the summer, a strong fall market, and sometimes a flurry of bidding wars, our buyers and sellers had a great 2015,” says NVAR Chairman Virgil Frizzell. “Our region could always benefit from affordably priced new homes that will help our renter population make the move to homeownership.”
The NVAR covers Fairfax and Arlington counties, Alexandria, Falls Church, Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.
There is more for potential buyers to look at in Northern Virginia now, with 3,470 active listings last month, up 7.36 percent from a year earlier.
Below is a look at the housing market in Northern Virginia, according to NVAR:
InfoGraphHousingMarket_December2015[1]
Follow @WTOP on Twitter and WTOP on Facebook.
http://wtop.com/real-estate/2016/01/did-northern-virginia-housing-just-get-cheaper-a-little-bit/
I keep thinking about starting to look at homes in the NoVA area. Just so I know it better. Lots of jobs, kind of boring area (mainly boring people.) More creative stuff in Baltimore but wouldn’t want to live there.
$480K would be like 4X income, if my job doesn’t go away with stock market collapse. And it might be possible to find better paying gig.
The problem though is the region is huge, jobs are spread out all over so if I switch jobs then could be stuck with a long commute.
My concern is that the market is still manic. That escalation clauses, bidding wars and pre-qualifications are the norm from reports I’ve seen. This is indicative, in my opinion anyway, of high speculative demand (housing demand is a two part object, speculative, to capture future price gains, and consumptive, to consume - actually use - the house).
While inspections are waived, houses are sold ‘as-is’ and people are making snap decisions on the largest purchase in their life, it seems, to me anyway, something is slightly amiss.
Is your portfolio buttressed for a bear market? Time to batten down the hatches!
Marketwatch dot com
Oil prices hit fresh 12-year lows to trade below $28 a barrel
By Jenny W. Hsu
Published: Jan 20, 2016 7:56 a.m. ET
Getty Images
Oil well in Garden City, Texas.
Oil futures traded below $28 a barrel on Wednesday, dragged down by a fresh slide in the global financial markets and continued concerns about the glut of crude.
Fears about an economic slowdown in China, the world’s second biggest economy, have rattled financial markets at the start of the year and added to the bearish sentiment on the oil market.
…
how is the MM QB’S portfolio looking?
Do u flunk a lot of students?
Luckily I dumped a lot of stocks over the holidays.
Marketwatch dot com
European stocks tumbling toward lowest close in more than a year
By Carla Mozee
Published: Jan 20, 2016 5:31 a.m. ET
European stocks were selling off Wednesday, heading toward their lowest close in more than a year, as markets were locked in the grip of collapsing oil prices.
The Stoxx Europe 600 (SXXP, -2.95%) fell 3% to 322.33, on track for their worst close since October 2014, according to FactSet data. The benchmark had fallen by as much as 3.5%, driven by declines in all sectors, with financial and oil and gas shares (SXEP, -3.88%) losing the most.
Asian shares dropped earlier Wednesday as the rout in oil prices and concerns about Chinese economic growth took their toll. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average (NIK, -3.71%) closed in bear market territory.
The Stoxx 600 index is down more than 20% from its all-time high reached last April. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures (ESH6, -1.79%) were indicating a sharply lower open for Wall Street on Wednesday. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YMH6, -1.87%) were down more than 300 points.
“This is worrying times for investors as the market is showing signs of pure panic and is being dominated by fear as each day brings its new set of challenges,” said James Hughes, chief market analyst at GKFX, in a note. “The longer fear is dominating, the longer we are likely to be on the back of these big swings,” he wrote.
…
Is it time to wheel out Draghi again for some more dovish talk?
Marketwatch dot com
Opinion: The bear market in stocks has finally arrived
By Michael Sincere
Published: Jan 20, 2016 5:04 a.m. ET
Veteran investor Mark D. Cook gives three options for protecting your money
Mark D. Cook: ‘Every rally in a bear market has no traction. In a bull market, rallies will hold for days or weeks. Now we’re getting sharp “one-day wonders” that fail. Every hope is dashed. That is a strong characteristic of a bear market.’
Investors have noticed that the stock market has gone through a radical change in the past few months.
Veteran investor Mark D. Cook, who pointed out red flags a year ago, feels vindicated. Finally, stock prices confirmed what he saw in 2014: We’re in a bear market and about to go over the cliff, he says. Here is a chat I had with Cook over the weekend.
…
Party’s over, folks. Time to sober up.
Marketwatch dot com
Dow futures fall more than 300 points as oil, Asia selloff rattle investors
By Sara Sjolin
Published: Jan 20, 2016 5:29 a.m. ET
It’s ‘very, very ugly’, says analyst
U.S. stocks are set for an open deep in the red.
Wall Street was set for steep losses at the open on Wednesday, as a renewed selloff in Asia and tanking oil prices triggered a flight from risky assets such as equities.
Investors were also holding off from making any big moves ahead of the release of inflation data and housing numbers for December,due ahead of the bell.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YMH6, -1.83%) lost 313 points, or 2%, to 15,600, while those for the S&P 500 index (ESH6, -1.75%) dropped 34.90 points, or 1.9%, to 1,838. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index (NQH6, -1.97%) fell 91.75 points, or 2.2%, to 4,052.75.
The slides came as part of a broader global selloff in the equity market, fueled by oil creeping further below $28 a barrel and worries over a slowdown in China. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei (NIK, -3.71%) slid into bear market territory, which marks a 20% slump from a recent high. And in Europe, markets were lower across the board, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index (SXXP, -2.96%) down 3% and on track for its lowest close since late 2014.
“Ugly; very very ugly, describes current equity markets, with momentum swinging negative yet again and the bears firmly in control. The fledgling hope from yesterday that markets were on the turn has been quashed by sharp overnight falls in Japan and Asia,” said Rebecca O’Keeffe, head of investment at stockbroker Interactive Investor, in a note.
“With every upturn being followed by deeper falls, investors are increasingly wary as it becomes more and more difficult to determine what might happen next,” she added.
…
Marketwatch dot com
Here’s a reason to ignore this plunging market — it knows nothing
By Barbara Kollmeyer
Published: Jan 20, 2016 7:28 a.m. ET
Critical information ahead of the U.S. market’s open
How to ignore a market that’s showing all the hallmarks of getting butchered on Wednesday? Not so easy.
Futures point to a cratering for Wall Street at the open as oil gets pounded again, Middle East markets crumble and the dollar careens below ¥117. Asia had a disastrous session as the Nikkei fell into bear-market territory, and the FTSE 100 looks to be headed there soon.
These are “worrying times for investors, as the market shows signs of pure panic and is being dominated by fear as each day brings its new set of challenges,” says James Hughes, chief market analyst at GKFX. The herd leading the herd.
That brings us to our call of the day. Oaktree Capital’s Howard Marks says sure, this market is in a panic — but what does it really know anyway? Read on for what he has to say about the dangers of investors putting too much trust in their screens, and not enough in their own common sense.
…
I’m trying to catch me some falling knives. Looking for PE <8, low cost producers with lots of cash paying a dividend.
Infrastructure spending a lower dollar and rising debt are right around the corner. You see that light at the end of the tunnel, just run towards it.
Remember they’ve changed the rules regarding money markets they won’t hold a buck this time. If you have cash keep it in FDIC insured accounts.
Marketwatch dot com
Housing starts fall 2.5% in final month of 2015
By Jeffry Bartash
Published: Jan 20, 2016 8:34 a.m. ET
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Home builders cut back slightly on new construction in the final month of 2015, …
So-called housing starts fell 2.5% last month to an annual rate of 1.15 million, the government said Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected starts to total a seasonally adjusted 1.23 million.
…
The Top 15:
1 Hawaii
2 California
3 New York
4 Alaska
5 Florida
6 Nevada
7 New Jersey
8 Rhode Island
9 Massachusetts
10 Connecticut
11 Illinois
12 Mississippi
13 Washington
14 Arizona
15 New Hampshire
Patterns? Correlations?
The fraud of the housing bubble is a huge factor.
—————-
CT ranked as one of top 10 states where people are living paycheck-to-paycheck
WFSB - 1/19/2016
A new study shows Connecticut is in the top ten for paycheck-to-paycheck living.
People everywhere have to pay rents or mortgages, groceries and utilities. But those bills vary from state to state. When everything’s paid, a study by the website GoBankingRate shows, not a lot is left in Connecticut.
The study takes the median income which in Connecticut is just more than $70,000 and then subtracts the housing costs, grocery bills, transportation costs, utility bills and healthcare.
Then, the study balances out to roughly $663 that’s left over or a quarter of the average paycheck to spend on anything else.
“The fraud of the housing bubble is a huge factor.”
Exactly. And it’s at unprecedented levels.
Here is an example of of autos being way overpriced.
Lets say u bought new chevy truck for 50,000.00 from dealer on payments.
Then you drive home and have realized you made a big mistake as you found a pink slip in your mailbox.
How much would that truck be worth if someone couldn’t get financing and had to pay cash?
Used prices seem to be really high. Been looking at Tacomas, and used market is rough. Not much savings.
Paying grossly inflated prices for depreciating assets like houses and cars don’t represent savings. Losses only.
Tacomas have always been a tight market. And now that new “fully featured” ones are approaching $40k, even more so.
So are states with high taxes…
Curiously, bubbly Colorado and Utah are not on that list.
You will need that extra cash to pay for Colorado’s underfunded state-administered pension plans.
“Between fiscal years 2008 and 2012, the funded ratio of Colorado’s state-administered pension plans decreased from 67.9 percent to 59.2 percent. The state paid 85 percent of its annual required contribution, and for fiscal year 2012 the pension system’s unfunded accrued liability totaled $8.6 billion. This amounted to $1,771 in unfunded liabilities per capita.”
You will need that extra cash to pay for Colorado’s underfunded state-administered pension plans.
Since they can’t raise taxes to cover it, there are going be a lot of sad pandas.
Nor uber-bubbly Oregon.
“People everywhere have to pay rents or mortgages, groceries and utilities. But those bills vary from state to state. When everything’s paid, a study by the website GoBankingRate shows, not a lot is left in Connecticut.”
Those people in Connecticut are going to have to dig a little deeper, they have pensions to fund.
“In Nebraska, for example, the pension liability amounts to about $386 per person, the lowest in the nation. That compares with Alaska ($19,394 per person: the highest in the country), Illinois ($15,158 per person) and Connecticut ($14,769). The average pension shortfall in 2014 amounted to $4,383.”
Is it possible to have a recession in an economy growing at 6.9%?
Marketwatch dot com
Cash is king as China sparks market turmoil, survey of fund managers shows
By Sara Sjolin
Published: Jan 20, 2016 8:31 a.m. ET
Allocation to cash jumps to highest in 43 months, survey finds
Investors dash for cash as China fears zap confidence
Global investors have run for cover, opting for higher cash holdings in January as the growing concern over China’s future economy has dashed desire to hold anything risky, according to the latest fund manager survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The allocation to cash globally has jumped to the highest level in 43 months, with a net 38% of investors overweight cash compared with 20% in December, the survey showed. Average cash balances are now up 5.4%, which marked the third-highest reading since 2009. This came as fund managers sold stocks, commodities and emerging-markets assets.
“With increasing concern over China’s growth, investors are significantly less confident in the global economic outlook,” the BAML team led by chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett said in the report. “Allocations to equities have fallen sharply, while cash holdings have risen.”
A potential recession in China is considered the biggest risk to the investment outlook, while an emerging-market debt crisis and geopolitical jitters come in second and third, as show in the graphic below.
…
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
Sarah Palin will endorse Donald Trump for president today. I have no idea what effect the endorsement will have, if any, but the endorsement shouldn’t be surprising: Palin and Trump have a number of similarities.
1. They’re not all that conservative
Palin has a reputation for being very conservative, but she’s not. OnTheIssues.org, which grades public statements, rates her as a “moderate conservative.” Palin supported a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. She has described herself as a feminist. Palin is far less conservative than other Republican bigwigs, such as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio; both rate as “hard-core conservatives.”
Palin’s ideology lines up much better with Trump’s. When you convert Palin’s and Trump’s OnTheIssues grades to a -100 (most liberal) to 100 (most conservative) scale,1 Palin and Trump have nearly identical scores (47.4 for Palin and 47.5 for Trump). Trump has strayed from conservative orthodoxy on abortion, foreign policy, gay marriage, Social Security and a whole host of other issues. Palin is more interested in outsider credentials than conservative bona fides.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/?ex_cid=story-twitter
Donald Trump. An esteemed statesman with a squad of sexy strumpets.
Conservative means nothing when the elite party bosses continually sell you down the river. Who is conservative on immigration? McSame?
Donald is way smarter than Sarah. Sara is Chauncey Gardner with boobs.
Except that Chauncey would inadvertently spew wisdom and was pure of heart.
But…. Boobs!
Clinton And Sanders Call Out America’s Racist Criminal Justice System
by Alice Ollstein Jan 17, 2016 10:05 pm
Sanders concluded with a call to “make our police departments look like the communities they serve in their diversity,” referencing the current race gap that leads to many majority-black communities across the country being policed by a group of nearly all-white officers.
—————————————————————————
Which is not a problem in Bernie’s town.
————————————————————————–
“Bernie lives in Burlington, Vermont with his wife Jane. He has four children and seven grandchildren.”
—————————————————————————–
Burlington Vermont
Population 42,211
White 88.9%
Black or African American 3.9%
Asian 3.6%
Hispanic 2.7%
quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/50/5010675.html - 161k -
Meet Bernie
Born in Brooklyn, New York, he attended James Madison High School, Brooklyn College, and the University of Chicago. After graduating, he moved to Vermont where he worked as a carpenter and documentary filmmaker. In 1981, he was elected as mayor of Burlington, the state’s largest city, by a mere 10 votes.
As mayor, Bernie’s leadership helped transform Burlington into one of the most exciting and livable small cities in America. Under his administration, the city made major strides in affordable housing, progressive taxation, environmental protection, child care, women’s rights, youth programs and the arts.
Bernie lives in Burlington, Vermont with his wife Jane. He has four children and seven grandchildren.
berniesanders.com/about/ - 49k -
{{Sanders concluded with a call to “make our police departments look like the communities they serve in their diversity,” referencing the current race gap that leads to many majority-black communities across the country being policed by a group of nearly all-white officers.}}
That’s all well and good, but what do you do if not enough minorities apply for the positions?
How come no one ever calls out the NFL and NBA to have a racial makeup to mirror thier fan base?
Good question for Barney Saunders.
That’s almost literally a line from the TV show All in the Family stated by Archie Bunker. If the America id 12% black, the NBA should be 88% white.
So Sanders = Archie Bunker?
Seems as though but Archie was a mere hollywood caricature. Barney Saunders is the real thing.
So Sanders = Archie Bunker?
No, he probably hasn’t made any statements about professional sports. He’s focused on more important things.
But he has made at least one statement of representation in employment based on racial makeup of the community, like our old friend Archie. If pointing at Archie invalidates a point someone is making, then Sanders just got Trumped.
I suppose the point needs to be made more explicitly for you. Hiring policies in police departments is a more important issue than hiring policies of sports teams.
You’re backpedalling SnowFlake.
Sanders concluded with a call to “make our police departments look like the communities they serve in their diversity
Aren’t most police chiefs in large cities minorities?
And the Oscar goes to… Lily White
Straight Outta Burlington
You’re missing the letter D in your name.
I’ve been to Burlington, once, to see the Grateful Dead while Jerry was still alive at the Franklin County airport in July 1994. The locals were all really friendly and nice.
One of my sisters spent four years in Burlington and graduated from UVM in the 70s.
She liked it.
Is this really a problem anyone cares about? Can anyone not name many nonwhite stars in Hollywood over the last 30 years?
“Can anyone not name many nonwhite stars in Hollywood over the last 30 years?”
What?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wEnb9yIoes - 251k -
FWIW: Go here for some interesting information about dancing manias:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dancing_mania
Yesterday I posted about the Dancing Plague of 1519; It turns out this was not an isolated incident.
turn out the lights, the parties over!
The Gyrating Backpedal. It’s the new rage.
“In the spring of 2014, the city of Flint decided to stop using Detroit’s water system and instead began pumping its water from the Flint River.”
Looks like a lot of bad decisions in Flint.
Flint voters elect two convicted felons, two others with bankruptcies to city council
By Dominic Adams | dadams5@mlive.com
November 06, 2013 at 8:27 PM,
FLINT, MI – The newly elected Flint City Council includes a convicted killer, a man who served probation for felonious assault and two people who have gone through personal bankruptcies.
Wantwaz Davis, who beat incumbent Bernard Lawler by 71 votes to win the Fifth Ward seat, served 19 years in prison after pleading guilty to second-degree murder in 1991.
Wantwaz Davis.JPGWantwaz D. Davis
Davis said he didn’t hide his murder conviction from voters and openly talked about the conviction with residents, but it never was publicly reported. The Journal learned of the conviction Wednesday and Davis confirmed it when asked.
Also on the nine-member council are:
• First Ward councilman-elect Eric Mays pleaded guilty to felonious assault in 1987 and served a year of probation. Mays said the man had been threatening his life before Mays threatened him with a gun.
• Second ward Councilwoman Jackie Poplar filed for Chapter 13 bankruptcy in federal bankruptcy court in 2004, a year before first being elected to City Council. She repaid nearly $21,000 to her creditors over six years.
• Newly elected Seventh Ward councilwoman Monica Galloway and her husband filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in 1999, according to federal court records.
Davis and Mays are not the first convicted felons to win election in Flint.
Former Mayor Don Williamson served three years in prison in the early 1960s on two felony convictions involving business scams. Williamson resigned in 2009 on the verge of a recall election.
http://www.mlive.com/news/flint/index.ssf/2013/11/flint_voters_elect_two_convict.html - 104k -
They are democrats.
So they BLAME the governor (cause he is an evil republican) for their idiotic decision.
And the stupid governor actually apologized…
Buy but Donalt says bankruptcies are for winners!
Poetic justic on the sheeple of Flint for voting for corrupt, incompetent Democrats. What kind of goverrnance were you expecting, fools?
Yeah, those kids suffering from lead poisoning is justice. You’re a piece of work, Ray.
Did you eat paint chips too SnowFlake?
The model of compassionate conservatism.
Elections have consequences…
The democrats won and…
The children lost.
But more importantly - not one public union goon pension was harmed in this crisis.
…and you’re happy the kids got brain damage because it makes ‘your’ side look good.
Very christian of you.
There’s hope for Lola after all…
“Head Transplant Carried Out On Monkey”
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2073923-head-transplant-carried-out-on-monkey-claims-maverick-surgeon/
Crypto currency, cash, TBills, municipal bonds and physical precious metals. That’s the new black.
Don’t forget lead and brass.
Did someone post an article yesterday about Mike Hearn saying Bitcoin is dead? Man, I use by Bitcoin debit card frequently. Bitcoin is king.
http://www.coindesk.com/price/
Litecoin is no slouch
http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/litecoin/
Here’s your share of state pension shortfalls
John W. Schoen | @johnwschoen
21 Hours AgoCNBC.com
Despite the ongoing economic recovery, state governments are still struggling to keep up with the payments to their pension funds needed to take care of current and future retirees.
And the shortfalls vary widely from one state to another, according to the latest data from Moody’s, which assigns credit ratings for state governments.
In Nebraska, for example, the pension liability amounts to about $386 per person, the lowest in the nation. That compares with Alaska ($19,394 per person: the highest in the country), Illinois ($15,158 per person) and Connecticut ($14,769). The average pension shortfall in 2014 amounted to $4,383.
Overall, funding levels improved slightly last year, thanks to the rising stock market that helped lift pension fund portfolios. That progress could be reversed if the recent market plunge extends further.
Since the Great Recession ended, most states have seen gains in tax revenues as more people returned to work and consumer spending and the housing market recovered. Despite those gains, pension fund shortfalls widened between 2010 and 2014 in all but eight states.
One reason: Some states have failed to keep up with the annual payments they need to make to keep their pension funds on a sound footing. Last year, Kentucky, New York and Texas paid only two-thirds of the payments needed to fully fund future benefits. California paid less than half of what’s needed. New Jersey paid just 19 percent.
Making up for years of under funding is now costing some states a rising share of revenues, which is crowding out other services and putting upward pressure on tax rates.
Illinois, Connecticut Louisiana, New Jersey Maryland, Kentucky, New Mexico, West Virginia, California and Hawaii now need to spend 5 percent or more of their revenues to keep up with pension fund payments.
In Illinois, which is halfway through the current fiscal year without an approved budget, the funding required to meet pension obligations accounts for 12 cents of every dollar of state revenues. Last year, the state made only 88 percent of that payment.
Go ahead and get yourself a job with a state pension… oh, wait… you’d have to pass a background check. Bummer.
If you’re talking to me, I have passed background checks to be a licensed contractor in the States of Florida, a Little League coach (which I was for 10 years) and one for a concealed carry permit.
Considering what I see teachers getting arrested for every year, I am pretty sure I have had to clear a bar much higher than them.
Does anybody on this site understand that ALL budgets come from the house. In addition, the budget must be approved by the house and the senate before it is sent to the president to be signed into approval.
There is no Obama budget or Bush budget.
Who controls the house, you rocket scientists?
“It’s the man over there! Nope… It’s the other guy! No way…. It’s him with the brown jacket!”
The president is supposed to be a leader.
He/she has enormous power and influence.
He/she also submits a budget to Congress as a starting point.
Sometimes Congress ignores it. Sometimes it doesn’t.
Clinton had a balanced budget with a republican Congress. Who got the credit?
Even though Clinton never ran to balance the budget and the republicans did with thier “Contract with America”
Clinton had the mighty Veto! O has the do nothing congress.
For the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 the shortfall was $439 billion, a decrease of 9%, or $44 billion, from last year. The deficit is the smallest of Barack Obama’s presidency and the lowest since 2007 in both dollar terms and as a percentage of gross domestic product.
B…b…but Obama said at the SOTU that anyone who said ‘Murica’s economy was in decline is “peddling fiction”….
http://www.woodpilereport.com
“Anyone claiming that America’s economy is in decline is peddling fiction,” said Obama. Hmm. Last Friday, after market close natch, the Fed announced Q4 GDP was up a feeble 0.6%. Realistically? Maybe a third of that. None of that, “ex fraud”. JPM agrees, CNN doesn’t. You choose.
Figured by the Depression era method, unemployment is 23%. Retail is still in retreat, railcar loadings are way down, including intermodal. Equities have fallen around 12%, forced selling and margin calls are in motion, and the VIX is percolating above 25. Oil dropped below 30, drillers and frackers are taking their meals at the Chateau de Salvation Army, the whole Chinese economy has cheerfully stepped off the ledge and the high seas are all but untroubled by commerce—the Baltic Dry Index fell under 400 for the first time. Ever. Oh, and the unwinding of enough debt for a whole nuther galaxy is under way. Fiction? No wonder the media is touching the hem of Obama’s robe with ten-foot poles.
Having a tank full of cash in a deflationary environment is like winning the lottery.
cash - lettuce - dinero, green, - what other nick names?
bitcoin on debit card
T-bills
fractional gold (in quarter ounce or tenth ounce sizes) - also platinum, silver - behind the oatmeal
sleeping easy.
How to get rich in a deflationary environment.
Step 1. Have a huge stash of cash…
Step 2. Have a steady job in the deflationary environment, if you are one of the few lucky ones. You can add more to the cash.
A steady union job in a non right-to-work state.
Figured by the Depression era method, unemployment is 23%
I’ve never heard of the Depression era method for calculating unemployment. That sounds like more made up nonsense.
Sorry SnowFlake….
Labor Force Participation Rate Plummets To 37 Year Low; Jobless Population Soars To Record High
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
I’ve told you many times to stop it with that silly graph. It doesn’t mean what you think it means.
It means exactly what it says. Here it is again just in case you missed it.
Labor Force Participation Rate Plummets To 37 Year Low; Jobless Population Soars To Record High
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
You probably don’t know what is meant by labor force participation.
Data SnowFlake. Stick with the data.
Dallas, TX Housing Prices Crater 19% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/north-dallas-dallas-tx/home-values/
Thanks for confirming that you don’t know what the meaning of participation rate is. Also, changing the subject is a form of crickets.
Schooling you everyday? Priceless.
Bellevue, WA Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/bellevue-wa-98006/home-values/
I’ve never heard of the Depression era method for calculating unemployment.
That’s because you’re a retard, MightyMike. Go sit out on your porch and wave bye-bye to the passing traffic and leave this board to the grown-ups.
Oil still tanking. How low can it go? And which banks are counterparties on all those hedging derivatives?
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic
Like we stated when this all started. $15/barrel. Chop and fill between $12 and 20 but $15 is where she’ll stay for a very long time.
Picked up a small position in HES on the off chance that $26 is the bottom, for now.
Don’t you remember the big banks have sold all that slop to retirement plans and pensions. The FED will make them whole if any bad debts get stuck on their books.
Edgewood, WA Housing Market Craters; Prices Dive 7% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/edgewood-wa/home-values/
Ben, is there any way you’d consider adding a feature to the HBB that would allow us to vote annoying, non-value-added posters off the island? I’m generally tolerant of those with differing opinions, but MightyMike just whines and snivels incessantly as he goes about his ankle-biting. WPA at least occasionally had an actual point, although granted, I don’t recall an actual example. Please, Ben, can’t you give us some means to flush this floating turd?
It’s fun to feed the turds and watch them grow into larger turds.
You celebrate lead in children’s drinking water. I point that out and that makes me a turd. That’s a fascinating value system there.
(FXP) up 8.63% today (short China) we all know it is going to go down, put your money where your mouth is, eh?
I tossed $2500 into the casino today. High div stocks.
that dividend will be gone soon. first thing to go.
I did the same
At some point to prevent rioting they are going to start rebuilding infrastructure so I bought resource stocks that have a lot of cash on hand. The ones that might pick up the pieces if everything else breaks.
Rioting over falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels accelerating the economy?
LOL
you would riot over a 40 oz er.
Pick yourself up off the floor and cheer up and remember this Poet….. Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.
lower prices lead to layoffs
Lower prices increases employment. Sorry Lola.
Good idea, I bought water utils.
Been listening to alot of music of late in my earphones and dialed into Don Henley’s “New York Minute”.
Wonder how many New York minutes are wandering the hallowed halls of Wall street lately?
‘Been listening to alot of music of late in my earphones and dialed into Don Henley’s “New York Minute”.
Wonder how many New York minutes are wandering the hallowed halls of Wall street lately?’
My local radio station at the time (maybe syndicated national program, I don’t remember) was playing that song the days after 9/11/2001 during one of the talk shows as bumper music. Forever will I associate it with that date.
PPT for the win!
The shrills over at cnbc are talking about capitulation already. Bunch of baffoons. This selloff is nothing so far.
Breaker breaker this is the CoffeeMaker. You got your ears on Lola?
Sometimes posts here read like Alice in Wonderland…L.O.L.(A)
Who wants to filter through a blog topic festooned with Lolaisms?
how many natty lights today my friend?
Data Poet. Stick to the data.
Colleyville, TX Housing Prices Crater 5% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/colleyville-tx/home-values/
I’m not clicking on that cr@p anymore. I know you get paid per click. STARVE THE BEAST!
degenerate gambler
are u try to make a living here or what?
Falling prices of all kinds Poet.
Another typical day at the bits bucket.
http://goo.gl/yUwfQz
Fire the incompetent maintenance workers and administration that let it get so bad. Then bring in fresh energy and funds or sell them if you cant run a school in those hoods.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/20/us/detroit-public-schools-michigan-governor/
its hard to fire union folk my friend.
the Kinks - Got To Be Free:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7qChiEGugE
Some David Bowie songs you haven’t heard.
And I Say To Myself (1966):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-b57Y3sGZI
After Today (Young Americans Outtake 1975):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efZChbxtqbM
Waiting For The Man (Velvet Underground cover) live 1972:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_3Msuriy1w
Encore: the Width Of A Circle (Santa Monica 1972):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtUP5A1l0fQ
Everybody who had talent or a spark of life is dead or dying…
All the Young Dudes/Oh! You Pretty Things (live 1972):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvZsssoryN0
Stop watching television.
Read more books.
http://maine.craigslist.org/lab/5411316114.html
http://maine.craigslist.org/lab/5411169881.html