January 25, 2016

Bits Bucket for January 25, 2016

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 02:28:41

Is this a bear market, and if so, don’t stocks still have over 10% to fall before bottoming out?

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 02:32:44

Why would anyone buy now knowing markets have another 10%+ leg down ahead of them?

Makes no sense!

These signs will mark the bottom for the stock market
Published: Jan 22, 2016 6:17 p.m. ET
They’ll be crystal clear only in hindsight
AFP/Getty Images
Is this really the bottom?
By William Watts
Deputy markets editor

After getting off to the worst start to a new calendar year in history, U.S. stocks on Friday finally posted the first winning week of 2016. So did stocks bottom or is this just a bounce within a bigger pullback that could yet turn into a full-blown bear market?

For the average, long-term investor, the best advice during times of market turmoil is to remain calm and stick to a long-term investing plan. Calling a bottom—or a top—is a challenge even for professional investors.

The Wednesday low

It’s “abundantly clear” that Wednesday’s sharp selloff, which saw the S&P 500 (SPX, +2.03%) fall to its lowest intraday level since February 2014 at 1,812.29, marked a temporary low, said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital. But he suspects that despite the subsequent rebound, which may have substantially further to run, the bears are still in control of the market.

Rallies in bear markets tend to be quite strong, fueled by short covering and investors who rush in an effort to “buy the dip,” said Sarhan, who expects stocks to fall into a full-fledged bear market.

Getting to the ultimate bottom is going to take “a lot more time” and price deterioration, he said, noting that genuine bear markets tend to last from 18 to 36 months. In other words, don’t look for a bottom soon as the major indexes have yet to retreat 20% from their highs, which is the widely accepted definition of a bear market. A fall below 1,704.66 would put the S&P 500 in bear territory, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, +1.33%) would need to fall through 14,649.91.

The Russell 200 (RUT, +2.34%) is already in bear territory.

‘Total capitulation’

Comment by azdude
2016-01-25 05:28:58

the scrills over at cnbc were talking about capitulation last week. How about dow under 10000 and we might start talking.

Nothing has been fixed or changed since 2008.Things were papered over.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 02:36:27

Here’s a reason to ignore this plunging market — it knows nothing
Published: Jan 20, 2016 10:51 a.m. ET
Critical information ahead of the U.S. market’s open
Shutterstock
By Barbara Kollmeyer
Markets reporter

Gloomy markets seem to match the mood perfectly in snowy, beautiful Davos, Switzerland. All around the lookout towers, the cream of the global business crop are in an apparent race to see who can best wax lyrical about economic gloom. Check out our stat of the day to see just how downbeat CEOs are.

The situation is worse than it was in 2007,” William White, chairman of the OECD’s review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), told The Telegraph. That toxic addition to debt gets an airing as well, as White says the Fed is in a “horrible quandary.”

Things are so bad that there is no right answer. If they raise rates it’ll be nasty. If they don’t raise rates, it just makes matters worse,” he said.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 02:40:06

Crude prices reverse early gains, back under $32 a barrel
Published: Jan 25, 2016 3:09 a.m. ET
By Jenny W. Hsu

Crude-oil prices on Monday gave up a lead that had been driven by last week’s signals from the European Central Bank that it may undertake more stimulus measures.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in March (CLH6, -3.14%) traded at $31.93 a barrel, down $0.27, or 0.9%, in the Globex electronic session, after trading as high as $32.74 a barrel earlier Monday. March Brent crude (LCOH6, -3.08%) on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.56, or 1.7%, to $31.63 a barrel, having moved as high as $32.81 a barrel.

Last week, oil prices dropped below $27 a barrel, but bounced back to above $32 after the ECB hinted that more monetary easing may be rolled out as early as March. Some traders also speculated that Japan’s central bank might increase its asset-purchase program at its late-January meeting.

Prices got an additional lift after oilfield services provider Baker Hughes reported the number of U.S. active oil rigs dropped by five to 510 last week. The recent frigid weather in North American and Europe also buoyed prices on expectations for higher demand for heating fuels.

But analysts say the positive streak will likely end soon because the problem of a growing global glut amid slowing demand remains unchanged.

“Oil rigs in the U.S. have become more efficient so fewer numbers of active oil rigs don’t necessarily translate to lower production,” said an Australia-based energy analyst, adding that the physical oil market is still “grossly oversupplied.”

Global oil prices have taken a beating for nearly two years as inventories are swelling at a pace faster than demand growth. The imminent full return of Iranian oil back into the market is expected to further exacerbate the imbalance between supply and demand.

Goldman Sachs, one of the first banks to predict that oil prices could fall to $20 a barrel before a turnaround, said the recent rise had resulted as “both financial and operational stress begin to create substantial binding constraint on the oil market at prices in the high $20’s.”

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 02:45:49

ft dot com/markets
Global Market Overview
Last updated: January 25, 2016 9:36 am
European rally fades as oil loses ground
Paul McClean in London and Peter Wells in Hong Kong

Monday 09:30 GMT. US and European equity gauges are reversing early gains as trader sentiment continues to be buffeted by oil price volatility.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 is down 0.4 per cent and US index futures suggest the S&P 500 — which last Wednesday hit an intraday 23-month low of 1,812 — will open at 1,900, shedding 7 of the 38 points gained on Friday.

Concerns about a persistent supply glut last week pushed oil prices down to 12-year lows — weakness that spurred volatility across broader financial markets.

Investors were worried that as the energy sector struggles there is little evidence so far that lower fuel costs are boosting consumers. In addition, there are fears that oil producing nations are having to sell financial assets to make up budget shortfalls. The energy-sensitive Russian economy shrank 3.7 per cent in 2015, fresh data shows.

Oil prices then shot higher over the past few sessions, a snapback that had bearish traders scrambling to cut short positions, and they initially looked to continue that trend on Monday morning.

Comment by azdude
2016-01-25 07:04:35

Do u think some more EM reserves will have to be liquidated to pay this bills this week? Or support free falling currencies?

Is that QT? Quantitative tightening?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-01-25 07:21:31

Gold is finally starting to act like a barometer of concern over central bank money-printing/debasement of the currency and the underlying deterioration of global finances thanks to our lunatic Keynesian central planners. Loaded up the truck on AUY, GSS, IAG and SSRI at the firesale last week - hope it pays off going forward!

http://www.kitco.com/market/

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Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-01-25 08:50:47

I am buying up more AUY in a few weeks, also more GDXJ.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2016-01-26 04:38:05

AUY…..from $18 to $3 in 36 months. I’m glad I don’t own any, but it’s worth looking at now.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-01-25 07:24:52

I would love to see Yellen the Felon’s hand forced by investers refusing to buy US debt at such ludicrous yields given the Fed’s propensity to print away all government and corporate debts and obligations.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 02:50:56

ft dot com > Markets >
January 24, 2016 6:25 pm
US junk-rated energy debt hits two-decade low
Eric Platt and Ed Crooks in New York

The value of debt issued by junk-rated US energy companies has plummeted to the lowest level for more than two decades, sending a warning signal about the outlook for the North American oil industry.

The average high-yield energy bond has slid to just 56 cents on the dollar, below levels touched during the financial crisis in 2008-09, as investors brace for a wave of bankruptcies.

The slump in bond prices took a further step down last week, as crude dropped to 12-year lows below $28 per barrel. Although oil rebounded sharply, at about $32 per barrel on Friday, it was still 14 per cent lower than at the start of the year.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 02:53:52

Does it seem like Megabank, Inc uses every period of market volatility to pander for bailouts?

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 02:55:45

ft dot com
January 25, 2016 9:06 am
Talk of Fed ‘policy error’ grows
Robin Wigglesworth

Gathering for the first time after their epoch-ending decision to raise interest rates in December, the backdrop couldn’t be more different for Federal Reserve policy officials.

The long-awaited rate increase went smoothly, but simmering concerns over China, the global economy as a whole, deflating commodities and financial market valuations have since risen to the fore. Even fund managers that were relaxed about slightly tighter monetary policy last month are now wondering whether that was complacent.

It is reasonable for investors to wonder whether Fed’s December rate hike was a policy error,” admits Bob Michele, chief investment officer of JPMorgan Asset Management. “Historically the Fed has raised rates because either growth or inflation was uncomfortably high. This time is different — growth is slow; wage growth is limited; deflation is being imported.

Perhaps most of all, many investors now fret that they are operating without a safety net they had grown attached to during the post-financial crisis era.

Markets have been buffeted by powerful headwinds since 2008-09, ranging from predictable Middle East strife to the spectre of the disintegration of the European common currency. But central banks have been a constant source of comfort in hard times, suppressing interest rates and market volatility, thereby reinforcing the view among investors of a ‘central bank put’, or downside protection.

Such an assurance now appears less certain given the recent approach from central banks.

Comment by azdude
2016-01-25 05:31:41

supply and demand usually sets prices.

QE has pulled forward demand.

Unless some miracle growth occurs all of a sudden you run out of buyers.

Still no miracle after 7 years.

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Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-01-25 03:12:33

Like a beggar that chops off a limb for more sympathy.

Comment by azdude
2016-01-25 07:10:19

We need a massive debt purge so people have disposable income again.

I’m sorry if you bought sh@tty debt.

I feel sorry for junk bond holders. They got greedy. Haircuts in order, get in line!

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 22:32:36

“I’m sorry if you bought sh@tty debt.”

Did you aim that comment at those who borrowed way more than they will ever be able to repay in order to purchase a home at the Echo Bubble peak price, only to soon find themselves underwater without a life jacket?

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-01-25 06:28:01

It’s part of the Wall Street-Federal Reserve looting syndicate’s financial warfare against the 99%. Happily for the former, the latter keep enabling the swindle by bending over every election and sanctioning the institutionalized rip-offs.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-23/institutionalized-looting-america

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-01-25 10:51:08

More importantly, they keep borrowing.

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Comment by oxide
2016-01-25 07:30:12

They have been pandering for bailouts and interest rate cuts as long as I can remember. Recall those suggestive “news” headlines on CNBC, like “Greenspan to cut rates again???” which were designed to bully and manipulate the Fed to give money to banks. Rinse and repeat in 2008. Well, by now all these banks should have “living wills” courtesy of Dodd-Frank. May they choke on them.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 07:46:33

Was last Friday’s Wall Street bounce perhaps a spillover from Draghi’s “EU QE without limits” announcement?

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 07:50:00

Marketwatch dot com

Dow 16,025 -68.83 -0.43%

Bulletin McDonald’s leaps Dow gainers; Caterpillar leads its decliners

‘Buy the dips’ strategies are delaying that moment of ‘quiet despair’
By Shawn Langlois
Published: Jan 25, 2016 7:53 a.m. ET
Critical intelligence before the U.S. stock market opens
Forecast calls for a splash of red?

Poof! Nearly $8 trillion has been sucked from the carcass of the 2016 global equity market so far, and despite the solid pulse in recent days, nobody’s in a celebratory mood just yet. In fact, the gloomers are still holding court in the media. Why wouldn’t they be? Pain sells and double-digit declines are everywhere, with Russia, Italy and China carving deeper into bear territory.

But if Friday was merely a blip in a continued freefall, it was quite a blip. Global stocks exploded for their biggest gain since 2012, according to Bloomberg. The MSCI’s benchmark of world equities rose 2.6% as buyers stepped up and shorts scrambled in the face of potentially more stimulus.

If that 500-point storm midweek didn’t open the selling floodgates, maybe retail investors are a bit more patient than they get credit for. After all, while the headlines screamed blood in the streets, investors bought the dip in what Fidelity said was one of the 10 busiest retail trading days ever.

David Stockman, the tireless bear making noise on the Contra Corner blog, said the “no-man’s land” trend that has gripped markets won’t allow that to be a winning strategy. “Apparently, the day traders and robo-machines think BTFD [buy the f***ing dip] still works,” he wrote. “But they are going to be sorely disappointed — just as they have been for nearly 700 days running.”

And what then? “At some juncture in the not too distant future,” Stockman wrote, “the stock averages are going to break this trading range, and plunge back down to earth.”

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 19:48:59

R u one of the suckers who bought the oil dip on the incorrect assumption that prices had bottomed out?

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 20:03:58

Top News
Mon Jan 25, 2016 | 6:39 PM EST
U.S. crude drops back below $30 as Iraq adds record output
A flame shoots out of a chimney at a petro-industrial factory in Kawasaki near Tokyo December 18, 2014.
REUTERS/Thomas Peter/Files

SEOUL (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures dropped back below $30 a barrel in Asian trading on Tuesday, extending a near 6 percent fall made in the previous session, amid news that Iraq’s output reached a record high last month.

U.S. crude CLc1 fell 47 cents, or 1.55 percent, to $29.87 a barrel by 2309 GMT after settling $1.85, or 5.8 percent, lower at $30.34 a barrel.

Global benchmark Brent crude settled down $1.68 at $30.50 a barrel in the previous session, 5.2 percent below its closing price on Friday.

Iraq’s oil production hit a record in December, as output increased from the central and southern fields, an oil ministry spokesman said on Monday.

Meanwhile, Iraq may raise oil output further this year, reaching levels as high as 4 million barrels per day (bpd) from the country’s south, a senior Iraqi oil official said.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 20:08:50

The Wall Street Journal
Iran Makes First Post-Sanctions Sale of Oil to Europe
Greece’s largest refinery has agreed to buy oil from Iran, the first sale to Europe since sanctions lifted
By Stelios Bouras
Updated Jan. 23, 2016 8:34 a.m. ET

ATHENS—Greece’s largest refinery Hellenic Petroleum has agreed to buy oil from the National Iranian Oil Co., marking the first sale of Iranian crude to a European country since the lifting of trade sanctions against the Middle Eastern nation.

Hellenic Petroleum said late Friday that the two sides have “reached a long-term agreement,” with deliveries to start immediately.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-26 01:22:04

Stocks Decline as Oil Breaks $30 Again, Shanghai Equities Tumble
Emma O’Brien and Jonathan Burgos
January 25, 2016 — 3:11 PM PST Updated on January 26, 2016 — 12:15 AM PST
U.S. stock index futures indicate losses, Treasuries advance
Shanghai equity benchmark slumps to lowest level in 13 months

Stocks declined for a second day as Chinese equities slumped and oil fell back below $30 a barrel amid anxiety over global growth. Haven investments gained, including the yen, Treasuries and gold.

The Shanghai Composite Index plunged as much as 6.6 percent. Oil extended last session’s selloff, falling to $29.50 a barrel amid expectations U.S. stockpiles data will intensify concerns over the global glut. South Korea’s won weakened as data showed slowing economic expansion.

“Investors tend to see the decline of oil as a direct indication of slower global growth and weakness in emerging-market economies,” said Toshihiko Matsuno, chief strategist at SMBC Friend Securities Co. in Tokyo. “This is making the overall atmosphere worse.”

 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2016-01-25 03:14:08

I attended a conference last week with a lot of knowledgeable RE professionals. There seemed to be a consensus that NY condos are a very dangerous place in which to be invested right now.

The first day of the conference was the big down day on the stock market, and I must say, people seemed shell shocked. I think that day led to the overall feeling being one of foreboding (i.e. higher risk in the market today than last year). However, as the week rolled on, it became clear that the nervousness mainly related to places/property types where there has been substantial development and/or very high prices. Thus, a fair amount of commentary on the NYC condo market.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 05:04:04

You’re inclined to find far more “RE professionals” right here.

Comment by azdude
2016-01-25 05:36:39

“QE is like a roach motel, once your in you cant get out.” P. Schiff

It is the only thing that will keep the market from going into free fall.

Let prices fall to where real demand is or keep creating artificial demand.

Whats it gonna be daniel son?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 09:37:16

lol@Poet

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Comment by BlueCollarMale
2016-01-25 06:09:14

Call me when it’s dropped another 30 percent.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 07:13:29

“The first day of the conference was the big down day on the stock market, and I must say, people seemed shell shocked. I think that day led to the overall feeling being one of foreboding (i.e. higher risk in the market today than last year).”

That must have been awesome!

 
Comment by oxide
2016-01-25 07:34:45

When I visited my redneck friends, I told them about the Chinese buying up condos in NY or Miami or San Fran. And I expressed my relief that the Chinese had chosen to buy F-ing floating boxes of air, instead of buying real houses on real arable land in flyover with the intention of starting a colony. My redneck friends agreed.

Condos are neither a good store of value, nor do they make very good “safe houses.” New York must be reeling right now. Don’t they, of all cities, rely very much on just-in-time deliveries?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 07:46:06

Donk,

Condos or houses, they both depreciate rapidly.

Comment by oxide
2016-01-25 08:05:47

Maybe they do. But even if a house is worth nothing financially, it still has the value of a roof over your head. And if a house falls down, you still own the land on which to build another house, or shelter, or pitch a tent if you have to. Not to mention planting some kale or pasturing a few chickens. This is why I and the rednecks are glad the Chinese are staying out of flyover. Do those high end-condos even have laundry in unit?

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Comment by Oddfellow
2016-01-25 08:54:30

It’s a lot harder to maintain and secure a SFH or farm from the other side of the world, than it is a condo.

The Chinese are also probably rightly dubious about their ability to deal with rural legal systems and cultures. There aren’t many Mandarin-speaking lawyers in Podunk.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 09:02:20

Donk,

Condos don’t have rooves?

Chicken’s pretty cheap at $1.50 a pound.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-01-25 05:37:52

All of the makings of a global financial crisis are in place, including currency crashes in Russia and Turkey. This could get a lot uglier than the usual “financial crash” that comes along every 7.5 years as the Oligopoly’s preferred means of looting and asset-stripping the 99%.

Comment by BlueCollarMale
2016-01-25 07:37:20

Let’s not forget that peso y’all.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-01-25 05:49:38

The German sheeple voted for a faux “conservative” who was a known toady of the globalists and banksters. Now they are getting exactly what they voted for, good and hard. But soon we shall have our own Frau Merkel, only a more corrupt and venal version: Hillary Clinton.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-24/bowels-emptied-women-molested-german-media-reveals-monstrous-cctv-footage-refugee-po

Comment by azdude
2016-01-25 07:00:36

u have bad apples in every group of folks. You cant stereotype off of a few rogue people that are under a lot of duress.

Comment by Montana
2016-01-25 19:53:22

No need to import duress.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2016-01-25 11:01:09

I predict that 2016 see even more guns and gun accessories under the Christmas tree than even in 2012.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-01-25 12:04:54

ISIS is everywhere!

 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2016-01-25 05:50:52

It is criminal gangs who decide who comes into the UK and in what numbers. They largely decide what happens to the migrants once they arrive.
In handing our immigration system over to them, we have allowed conditions of unimaginable squalor, misery and criminality reminiscent of Victorian times to take hold.
So how has it happened? Well, get rid of any notion that we are doing the world’s poorest many favours.
Judah quickly discovers that multiculturalism for many migrants is a euphemism for slave labour.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/columnists/article-3412616/How-Labour-turned-London-foreign-city.html#ixzz3y4YJUoNH%3C/b

Human trafficking, will work for food.

Comment by BlueCollarMale
2016-01-25 07:52:18

Come here, have kids and get welfare. The new American way.

BTW, my experience is that the people most against welfare are those who have been on it or those with close family or friends on it, who have been able to see it wreck lives for decades.

Comment by palmetto
2016-01-25 08:02:40

Except the article is about London, not an American city, although my guess is that a similar article could be written about NYC and LA.

Filthy cesspits.

 
 
Comment by butters
2016-01-25 11:43:14

It’s called guaranteed future labour voters.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-01-25 05:51:33

Finally, potential relief for the Pineapples’ Trump-phobia.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/24/opinion/sunday/a-drug-to-cure-fear.html?_r=0

Comment by BlueCollarMale
2016-01-25 07:38:35

Without even clicking, I thought that drug was called booze?

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by BlueCollarMale
2016-01-25 07:41:00

How the hell did they get that dog up there?

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-01-25 06:11:56

More black swans winging their way towards the Fed’s Ponzi markets and asset bubbles.

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/24/moodys-sours-on-stocks/

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2016-01-25 06:17:29

Ghost city porn

Welcome to the Department of Emptiness: The £150 million knockoff Pentagon that has been built and abandoned in Chinese city…Shanghai.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/peoplesdaily/article-3404879/Welcome-Department-Emptiness-150-million-knockoff-Pentagon-built-abandoned-Chinese-city.html

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-01-25 10:57:51

The Chinese have lost their freakin’minds

 
Comment by oxide
2016-01-25 11:15:13

One of the commenters had a good idea: why net send all the Syrian and Middle Eastern refugees to China? China already has empty cities to house them.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-01-25 13:13:32

They’d probably end up in the chow mein.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 22:37:07

Thanks for the acknowledgement. Seems like a win-win.

 
 
Comment by Sacks of Dong
2016-01-25 17:33:49

Ahh its a shopping mall. Just waiting for the Chinese economy to do that magnificent flip flop from manufacturing to consuming. Decaying for 7 years now.
“…the massive pentagon-shaped complex was constructed in 2009, costing £150 million to develop, but it has been vacant ever since.”

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-01-25 06:18:47

The sheeple of Flint, Michigan, like their urban counterparts all over ‘Murica, vote for successive corrupt, incompetent Democrat municipal administrations (redundant, I realize) then are shocked, shocked! to find their basic services and infrastructure has been hideously maladministered.

The stupid, it burns.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2016/1/24/michigans-emergency-managers-come-under-fire-in-flint-and-detroit.html

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-01-25 07:15:59

yet they still wont fix the school to prison pipeline by demanding all students read, write and speak English. Reading the NY Times and understanding the world around you should be a mandatory requirement for awarding a HS diploma.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-01-25 08:52:55

The NYTimes is 8th grade reading level.

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-01-25 09:48:44

ok the wall street journal…just as long as its not the daily news or the ny post or some other rag aimed even lower

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Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-01-25 12:07:46

Wasn’t that emergency manager appointed by the republican governor? I saw his apology speech.

Comment by measton
2016-01-25 22:39:29

Did we quit when the German’s bombed Pearl Harbor?

Pearl Harbor?

Forget about it he’s on a roll.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-01-25 06:22:05

The “succession of the successful” into walled cantons and gated neighborhoods has now gone worldwide, especially as income inequality widens. I bet a lot of old Viet Cong and NVA veterans living in poverty on their meager pensions are thinking, this isn’t what we fought for.

http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/jan/21/inside-hanoi-gated-communities-elite-enclaves-air-cleaner

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-01-25 06:23:48

Looks like gold is finally getting some wind in it’s sails. I think the flight to quality is going to be epic once even the dullest of the sheeple start seeing central bank debasement of the currency manifesting as hyperinflation.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2016-01-25 06:39:37

This quite possibly could be after several decades of gold price languishing below $400. We’ll have to extinguish a giant pyramid of shoddy debt before “the dullest of the sheeple” start having way to many dollars with no place to put them except gold.

 
Comment by Combotechie
2016-01-25 06:40:36

“I think the flight to quality is going to be epic once even the dullest of the sheeple start seeing that much of the money they thought they had tucked safely away in stocks, bonds, and managed accounts (especially managed accounts) ends up going to poofville, which is not hyperinflation at all but instead resembles more than a little bit the much-dreaded deflation.

Comment by Combotechie
2016-01-25 06:51:24

It’s again the time to trot out a chart …

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V

In a period of hyperinflation the velocity of money would go through the roof. In a period of deflation, when money is hard to get and hard to hang onto, not so much.

 
Comment by azdude
2016-01-25 06:54:46

Are you ready for some debt destruction? Keep your powder dry my friend.

Comment by Combotechie
2016-01-25 07:03:39

“Are you ready for some debt destruction?”

On person’s debt is somebody else’s money.

When somebody’s debt goes poof then somebody’s else’s money also goes poof.

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Comment by azdude
2016-01-25 07:13:06

Is that right my friend?

So if debt is created by bank credit it is someone else’s money? Did they earn it? Did they work for it?

 
Comment by Combotechie
2016-01-25 07:18:49

“On person’s debt” = “One person’s debt”

What’s interesting to me is how closely attached the value of everything (the value of equity, the value of debt … the value of everything) is to prices.

Prices. Prices, at root, determine the values of everything. If prices go up then - presto! - the values go up.

If the values of things give value to the debt that is backed by these things then the price also gives value to the debt. Take away the prices and - poof!- you just took away the values - not only did you take away the values of things but you also took away the values of the debt that is backed by these things.

Prices determine the value of things and debt is used to finance the purchase of things hence debt supports the price of things, the very same things that give backing - and thus value - to the debt.

 
Comment by Combotechie
2016-01-25 07:22:36

“So if debt is created by bank credit it is someone else’s money? Did they earn it? Did they work for it?”

It doesn’t matter how they got the money, it only matters that it works as money, that one can buy things with it.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2016-01-25 07:25:50

We will get to see how this debt destruction works out. The central banks can buy up bad debt but that money only goes to keep banks afloat.

 
Comment by Combotechie
2016-01-25 07:29:44

“The central banks can buy up bad debt but that money only goes to keep banks afloat.”

Which means that if this money never leaves the banks and enters into the economy the economy will remain short of money.

 
Comment by Combotechie
2016-01-25 07:33:07

The way it is set up now is you get to be saved from debt destruction if you are a bank - a big enough bank.

But people are not banks which means, when it comes to debt destruction, people are on their own.

 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-01-25 14:16:48

“Which means that if this money never leaves the banks and enters into the economy the economy will remain short of money.”

Plenty of BTC on my debit card.

 
 
 
 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-01-25 08:54:19

Mining stocks are scrumptious, but hands ful of physical gold is reassuring.

2016 could be a better year for Bitcoin.

2017 we will see gold above $1600.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-01-25 11:01:16

I sure hope so. I feel like an idiot for not selling at 1800z

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-01-25 11:25:16

A Chinese firesale may be in your future.

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Comment by CalifoH20
2016-01-25 16:56:10

Chinese health care costs are escalation from the smog and pollution. Hence they (with fake winnings) all want to flee to Irvine, CA.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Goon
Comment by Goon
2016-01-25 07:21:41

Weekly Standard leads with no less than five Trump articles right now.

William Kristol’s neocon rag may be weekly but it sure as hell isn’t standard. Unless of course your idea of standard is the Israeli Defense Force running over U.S. citizen Rachel Corrie with a Caterpillar bulldozer paid for with U.S. taxpayer dollars.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-01-25 11:02:19

Trumplings gonna trumple.

 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-01-25 14:18:21

Wait til Trump continues zionism.

 
 
Comment by BlueCollarMale
2016-01-25 08:00:10

Trump is up by 11 points in the most recent Iowa poll. That’s two in the last week showing him up by a yuuuge margin.

Got Pineapple Upside Down Cake?

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-01-25 13:34:49

2016 Trump v Sanders.

That Palin sponsor will haunt Trump, shows bad judgement.

Comment by BlueCollarMale
2016-01-25 18:37:40

It’s really hurt him in Iowa.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 22:43:17

How could he have predicted how wacky she would act, once back in the lime light?

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Comment by Goon
2016-01-25 07:01:38

FoxNewsHate website leads with no less than five articles on ISIS.

You’re being conned by neocons.

Comment by Goon
2016-01-25 07:39:41

Washington Times (published by Unification Church i.e. the Moonies) has a subsection titled Threat Assessment.

It doesn’t matter what the actual news of the day is, because there is always a threat that must be assessed. This is how neocons roll. Today’s threat is narrated with three articles on Russia.

The masthead of the Washington Times has a really newsy looking font, so much so that some Drudge Report link clickers may believe that it is an actual newspaper.

 
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-01-25 13:16:29

ISIS peed in the shrubbery in front of my house!

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-01-25 07:27:37

Looks like more systemic fraud and ficticious valuations are about to be uncovered.

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/24/acs-one-of-worlds-biggest-construction-companies-johanssen-short-attack/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-01-25 07:31:21

Remarkably, even the permabulls and Wall Street fluffers at CNN are having to admit all is not well with the economy.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/22/investing/oil-crisis-defaults-rise/index.html

 
Comment by Goon
2016-01-25 07:32:42

I went to the Drudge Report looking for neocon narratives and found this instead:

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-std-testing-20160124-story.html

Los Angeles has the highest rates of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in the country.

As Soul Coughing sang in Screenwriter’s Blues, “Los Angeles loves love.”

LOLZ

Comment by palmetto
2016-01-25 07:43:22

Here’s another one. Get ready for Zika!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/as-zika-virus-spreads-el-salvador-asks-women-not-to-get-pregnant-until-2018/2016/01/22/1dc2dadc-c11f-11e5-98c8-7fab78677d51_story.html

so bad, that “El Salvador on Thursday took the most extreme stance so far: Deputy Health Minister Eduardo Espinoza urged women to refrain from getting pregnant before 2018.”

Yeah, like that’s ever gonna happen. They’ll just roll the dice and pray they don’t pop out a pinhead. And if they do, they’ll just migrate here for the health care and special needs goodies.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-01-25 08:08:57

Those born with abormally small heads are ideal lifetime Democrat entitlement voters. Comrad Pelsosi and the DNC should charter a special airlift to bring all the Zika babies of Latin America and their extended families to the US to bring forward the date of our permanent Democrat supermajority.

Forward!

Comment by palmetto
2016-01-25 08:30:52

Holee Jeebus, forget Zika. This just popped up on ZH:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-25/20-dead-200-hospitalized-after-reports-us-lab-leaks-deadly-virus-ukraine

The California Flu, and it looks like the Spanish Flu redux. Here comes Goon’s die off.

WTF is a US lab doing in Ukraine, breeding deadly viruses? This looks like biological warfare on Russia. We have some real sick fvcks in the US goobermint.

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Comment by scdave
2016-01-25 09:18:34

We have some real sick fvcks in the US goober mint ??

We have one particular “sick fvck” here on the blog….

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-01-25 09:40:30

“We have one particular “sick fvck” here on the blog….”

Do you have a comment on the story? Or just looking for a flame fest?

This is serious stuff and if true, has the potential to start WW3 with Russia.

 
Comment by scdave
2016-01-25 12:45:15

Do you have a comment on the story ??

Why would I…I don’t read that end of the world garbage from zerohedge…

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 20:04:10

Pull yourself up out of the gutter and cheer up and remember….

Falling prices are positively bullish and good for the economy.

 
 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-01-25 10:07:35

Here’s another one. Get ready for Zika!

You’re probably disappointed that Ebola never became widespread in the USA.

Comment by palmetto
2016-01-25 10:21:25

“You’re probably disappointed that Ebola never became widespread in the USA.”

Not really, but probably Obama & Co. was.

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Comment by Oddfellow
2016-01-25 21:17:20

That’s why Obama invented the California flu to wipe us all out. Starting with the Ukranians, for some reason.

 
 
 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-01-25 07:47:35

Actually, that is part of the Drudge/Fox/Rush/Breitbart narrative. The big cities are full of all kinds of unsavory things. Usually their suburban audiences are regaled with horror stories about drugs, unions, and crimes committed by non-white people on welfare. The STDs just fit into the narrative.

Comment by Goon
2016-01-25 08:19:48

07:47:35?

Starting your shift at the Southern Poverty Law Center early today?

Matt Drudge is gay, BTW.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-01-25 09:54:09

Look around. Palmetto supported my point a few minutes later at 08:02:40.

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Comment by palmetto
2016-01-25 10:24:34

By noticing something? I was born in NYC, did grow up in the ‘burbs, thank jeebus. Always rather disliked it, except for the odd party or two. Lousy place to work, IMO.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-01-25 10:35:52

You expressed an opinion. You didn’t simply make an observation.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2016-01-25 11:27:56

Mike, you’re wasting electrons.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-01-25 22:48:56

“What’s causing the rise in STDs in L.A. County and how can technology help?”

What if LA health authorities handed out free orgasmatrons in the red light district?

 
 
Comment by Goon
2016-01-25 07:54:18

This is who real journalists are, this is what real journalists do:

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/24/boston-globe-endorses-hillary-clinton/

Hillary Clinton has early stage Alzheimer’s. Her lower calves are swollen into what some people call cankles. And she also suffers from chronic incontinence problems that require her to wear adult diapers. Real journalists don’t like to talk about these things, but you can set your watch to the paid Southern Poverty Law Center trolls showing up at 10am East Coast time to defend this vile beast.

Forward.

Comment by scdave
2016-01-25 09:44:01

Goon….You were at 14,200 feet…How many feet did you ascend ??

Comment by Goon
2016-01-25 12:20:26

Approximately 5,000 vertical feet of ascent to the summit:

http://i.imgur.com/LpNQvb7.jpg

The dog had it easier because she wasn’t sinking in the snow but we were frequently punching through to shin, knee, thigh, or waist deep, even in snowshoes.

Fun fact: there are 58 mountains above elevation 14,000 feet in the state of Colorado, and the number of people who have climbed all of them in calendar winter (between the solstice and the equinox) is five.

One of them is Aron Ralston, famous from the film 127 Hours. Another is Steve Gladbach who I knew personally and who died in a climbing accident near Aspen in 2013.

Comment by scdave
2016-01-25 12:42:23

The dog had it easier because she wasn’t sinking in the snow ??

Thats why I asked…Did not figure she could climb that mountain plowing through really deep snow…At that elevation its hard enough climbing on hard pan…Not my cup of tea in winter…I am a fair weather hiker…Have done my share fly fishing during the summers always with my canine companions…28 years with Brittney’s and now 11 years with German Shorthairs…

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Comment by Goon
2016-01-25 12:57:20

Some of us were born to achieve.

And some were born to never do more than passively observe from a sedentary position. Which is fine, because the latter give me alot of likes on Instagram.

 
 
 
 
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-01-25 11:05:54

President Poopypants?

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 11:25:43

Yeah. I want to know how you got the damn dog up there.

Is your dogs name Astro?

 
 
Comment by rj chicago
2016-01-25 08:40:30

ARTS & ENTERTAINMENT
Obama love story sweeps into Sundance

 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-01-25 09:29:04

way OT
safari as a browser sure cures many pc ills

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 09:48:32
 
Comment by Donald Trump
2016-01-25 11:05:02

I’ve got the hottest brand in the world.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 11:08:58

“What Squeeze: Bets Oil Will Drop Below $25 Hit Record High”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-25/what-squeeze-bets-oil-will-drop-below-25-hit-record-high

Remember….. Nothing cures poverty and accelerates the economy like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 11:35:57

“Texas Economy Collapses - Dallas Fed Survey Crashes To 6-Year Lows As “D” Word Is Uttered”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-25/texas-economy-collapses-dallas-fed-survey-crashes-6-year-lows-hope-disappears

Next up: Californica

Comment by MightyMike
2016-01-25 13:15:57

I read somewhere that oil and gas is a significantly smaller portion of Texas’ economy than it was 30 years ago. Interestingly, Zerohedge doesn’t mention any increase in unemployment, just various indices.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 14:49:55

Interesting. Post the information.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-01-25 15:36:29

It’s not easy to find that information quickly, but here’s something.

Manufacturing helps Texas economy grow at ‘modest’ pace

Despite struggles in the energy sector, a strong performance in manufacturing is helping keep the Texas economy moving, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

http://www.mystatesman.com/news/business/manufacturing-helps-texas-economy-grow-at-modest-p/np4fJ/

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 15:57:58

Collapsing housing, collapsing construction, collapsing oil.

Try again.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-01-25 16:08:32

You’re the one who always says that falling oil prices are wonderful. Now you’re changing your tune.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 16:31:30

They are wonderful.

Nothing accelerates the economy and cures poverty like falling housing and oil prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.

 
Comment by CalifoH20
2016-01-25 16:50:45

They are wonderful.

For the older, retired crowd on a fixed income with out family.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 17:03:04

Everyone benefits from falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Everyone.

 
Comment by CalifoH20
2016-01-25 17:43:13

How about Houston’s high end restaurants and their workers??

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 17:51:40

How about billions of people around the globe paying dramatically lower and more affordable prices for fuel and gasoline, accelerating the economy for billions more people.

 
Comment by BlueCollarMale
2016-01-25 18:48:08

Just saw a news story that grocery prices are dropping, down 6 percent. That’s good news.

 
Comment by CalifoH20
2016-01-26 00:09:54

Definition of “everyone.”

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-26 04:17:29

Everyone Lola. Everyone.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Goon
2016-01-25 12:33:03

Current banner ad on HBB for some weight loss program:

https://www.hmrprogram.com/healthysolutionsathome/

My Android phone is spying on me, it can tell that me approaching 175 pounds this winter is making me feel like a fat lazy piece of sh*t that needs more exercise.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-01-25 13:05:59

I’m still getting Victoria Secret ads.

 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-01-25 13:33:12

Militants Bring Young Children To Stay At Occupied Refuge

OPB has confirmed that there are children staying at the occupied Malheur National Wildlife Refuge.

The two young girls now staying at the occupied refuge are sisters, ages 8 and 9.

OPB is not naming the kids, nor their parents, to protect the identity of the children, but the mother and father are active and vocal militants in the armed occupation. Both parents have been involved in the incident since its start Jan. 2.

http://www.opb.org/news/series/burns-oregon-standoff-bundy-militia-news-updates/children-present-at-occupied-refuge-with-militants-/

Comment by Goon
2016-01-25 13:44:04

This paid message sponsored by the Southern Poverty Law Center.

 
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-01-25 14:46:08

Well, now they have their human shields. How long before they’re praying to Allah with their butts in the air?

 
Comment by Oddfellow
2016-01-25 21:35:39

I always like the part in cowboy movies when the cowboys hide behind their children.

 
 
Comment by CalifoH20
2016-01-25 13:37:24

PPT did a job on me, now I have no cerebellum…. sing along….

 
Comment by CalifoH20
2016-01-25 14:53:43

I remember $147 a barrel oil!

do I fee bad for these greedy clowns?

For oil field services stocks like Schlumberger, Halliburton, Baker Hughes and National Oilwell Varco (with the exception of Cameron International, soon to be acquired by Schlumberger), the last 12 months or more have been witness to losses of 20%-to-47% in share price.

Comment by rj chicago
2016-01-25 15:27:15

Recall that Slumpberger is cutting 10k folks in the near terms as a result.

Does anybody work anymore?

Comment by azdude
2016-01-25 18:45:03

a lot of people have been forced into retirement by lack of commerce amongst private individuals. lots of folks in there 30s retired.

 
 
Comment by Puggs
2016-01-25 18:34:56

Nope. Nada. not even a little.

Should have saved some of that profit for a rainy day.

Everyone, especially those in the business, knows oil goes up and down. Pretty drastic I might add.

 
 
Comment by CalifoH20
2016-01-25 15:20:21

The Fed’s balance sheet grew from around $900 billion in August 2008 to its current level of $4.535 trillion on January 14, 2016, an increase of $3.635 trillion or roughly 400 percent.

Got debts?

Comment by azdude
2016-01-25 16:55:37

deflation = debt destruction!

 
 
Comment by rj chicago
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-01-25 18:54:42

Hope ‘n change!

 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-01-25 15:58:19

With Inequality Rising, Billionaire Steve Schwarzman Expresses Surprise That American Voters Are Unhappy

DAVOS, Switzerland — As income inequality and healthcare costs rise in the United States and as an economic slowdown may be on the horizon, one of the world’s richest men expressed surprise that U.S. voters seem so angry in advance of the 2016 presidential election. Speaking at a gathering of corporate and government leaders in Switzerland, Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman told Bloomberg Television that he is bewildered about why Americans seem so discontented.

“I find the whole thing astonishing and what’s remarkable is the amount of anger whether it’s on the Republican side or the Democratic side,” the Wall Street mogul said at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “Bernie Sanders, to me, is almost more stunning than some of what’s going on in the Republican side. How is that happening, why is that happening?”

On the eve of the conference, the nonprofit group Oxfam released a report showing that the richest 62 people on the planet now own more wealth than half the world’s population. In the United States, recent data from Pew Research shows the average American’s median household worth has stagnated, as the median household worth of upper-class Americans increased 7 percent. Schwarzman, though, expressed surprise that people are enraged.

“What is the vein that is being tapped into across parties, that has made people so unhappy?” he said, telling Bloomberg’s anchor, Erik Schatzker, “That is something you should spend some time on.”

Schwarzman’s private equity firm, Blackstone, manages — and makes fees from — billions of dollars of pensioners’ assets, and was recently fined by federal regulators for not properly disclosing fee terms to its investors. The investors harmed by Blackstone’s conduct included public retirement systems in California, Florida and New Jersey.

Schwarzman has donated $100,000 to a super PAC supporting Jeb Bush’s presidential campaign and reportedly organized a meet-and-greet session between John Kasich and Wall Street executives, but Schwarzman said on Wednesday that he would ultimately support Donald Trump should his fellow Republican billionaire win the GOP nomination for president. In recent years, Schwarzman has made national headlines likening tax increases on the wealthy to the Nazi invasion of Poland.

http://www.ibtimes.com/inequality-rising-billionaire-steve-schwarzman-expresses-surprise-american-voters-are-2273633?utm_content=bufferbb91f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Comment by In Colorado
2016-01-25 16:31:48

For a moment I thought that was quoted form The Onion.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-01-25 18:55:42

Oligarchs like this can take comfort in the fact that 95% of ‘Muricans will bend over for them on demand by voting for their water carriers.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-01-25 16:06:22

Dallas, TX Housing Market Craters; Prices Plummet 15% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/lake-highlands-dallas-tx/home-values/

Comment by azdude
2016-01-25 16:57:00

no one cares BTFD!

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 17:10:32

Data Poet data!

Phoenix, AZ Housing Prices Crater 9% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/phoenix-az-85014/home-values/

Comment by azdude
2016-01-25 17:28:57

I refuse to click on that bs and enable your drinking problem!

I have read that some wall street cry babies think janet yellen is being to hawkish with their interest rate calls.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 17:49:41

There is no need to fear cratering housing prices Poet.

Gig Harbor, WA Housing Prices Plunge 9% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/gig-harbor-wa-98332/home-values/

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 18:02:01

CraterRage Photo Of The Day

http://goo.gl/7NdnhU

Comment by Muggy
2016-01-25 19:01:01

That looks like a toll road that only loanowners travel.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-01-25 20:00:13

And it’s all up hill.

 
 
 
Comment by Muggy
2016-01-25 18:28:22

Moved up a tax bracket this year.

 
Comment by azdude
2016-01-25 18:39:36

why is auntie yellen so hawkish?

 
Comment by CalifoH20
2016-01-25 18:53:44

HEY Bloomberg, YA CANT BUY AND ELECTION….JUST ASK JEB.

 
Comment by Muggy
2016-01-25 19:18:22

When you aren’t at Home Depot (and then Olive Garden if you have time) on the weekends you get the whole preserve for you and your girl.

http://picpaste.com/pics/c99361a20291ba4844613f2b953def24.1453774544.jpg

Offer limited to renters only

 
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