Bits Bucket for January 26, 2016
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Are China’s latest plunge protection measures working?
BloombergBusiness
Stocks Decline as Oil Breaks $30 Again, Shanghai Equities Tumble
Emma O’Brien and Jonathan Burgos
January 25, 2016 — 3:11 PM PST
Updated on January 26, 2016 — 12:15 AM PST
U.S. stock index futures indicate losses, Treasuries advance
Shanghai equity benchmark slumps to lowest level in 13 months
Stocks declined for a second day as Chinese equities slumped and oil fell back below $30 a barrel amid anxiety over global growth. Haven investments gained, including the yen, Treasuries and gold.
The Shanghai Composite Index plunged as much as 6.6 percent. Oil extended last session’s selloff, falling to $29.50 a barrel amid expectations U.S. stockpiles data will intensify concerns over the global glut. South Korea’s won weakened as data showed slowing economic expansion.
“Investors tend to see the decline of oil as a direct indication of slower global growth and weakness in emerging-market economies,” said Toshihiko Matsuno, chief strategist at SMBC Friend Securities Co. in Tokyo. “This is making the overall atmosphere worse.”
…
A basic understanding of market prices seems lacking over there.
There’s nothing worse than going long into an epic crash.
Marketwatch dot com
China’s crude oil imports rise 8.8% in 2015
By Jenny W. Hsu
Published: Jan 26, 2016 4:10 a.m. ET
HONG KONG–China’s appetite for crude oil remained healthy last year, with the latest data showing imports in December risng 9.3% from a year earlier to 33.2 million metric tons, but the country’s slowing economy will likely weigh on domestic demand for the fuel.
China’s total crude oil imports in 2015 rose 8.8% from the previous year to 335.5 million tons, China’s General Administration of Customs said Tuesday.
The government’s eagerness to fill up strategic petroleum reserves helped buoy imports, and local refiners have been taking advantage of weak oil prices to shore up inventories, analysts said.
Global oil prices have been battered for almost two years due a prolonged oversupply in the market. Prices are nearly 80% lower from their highs in mid-2008, and have fallen more than 18% since the beginning of the year.
“Product inventories are at seasonal lows and need to be rebuilt. This should keep crude imports high in first quarter of 2016,” said Laban Yu, an equity analyst at Jefferies.
However, some market observers said China’s slowing economic growth could result in weaker oil demand from the world’s second-biggest oil consumer. Last week, China said its economy grew 6.9% last year, the slowest pace in 25 years.
A downward revision by energy giant Exxon Mobil Corp. on its estimate for China’s annual energy demand growth highlights such fear.
On Monday, the company cut its forecast for annual energy-demand growth in China by almost a 10th to 2.2% a year through 2025. Over a decade, the revision amounts to more than Brazil’s current annual oil consumption. Exxon also predicts that China’s thirst for energy will peak by 2030.
A study issued last week by consultancy ESAI Energy also said China’s oil-demand growth rate between now and 2030 would be less than half that of the previous 15-year period.
According to Platts China Oil Analytics, the country’s crude imports may grow by 4.6% in 2016, much slower than last year’s 8.8% growth.
In the near term, analysts say China’s oil demand will hold up as the government is allowing more small and independent refiners to import crude oil. However, given that the domestic market is already flooded with refined products, Chinese refiners will likely seek to place their products in the export market, which could dent China’s need for imported oil products.
…
CNN U.S. Edition
Investing Guide
Cheap prices fail to kill U.S. oil boom
by Matt Egan
January 26, 2016: 12:24 AM ET
Many smart people thought U.S. oil production would fall off a cliff along with the crash in crude prices.
In reality, it hasn’t even come close to killing American production. The U.S. pumped 9.35 million barrels of oil a day in October, according to the latest government statistics available. That’s up from 9.13 million barrels in October 2014.
“Oil production from the U.S. is very resilient, particularly from shale production,” said Bielenis Villaneuva Triana, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy.
Official stats aren’t available yet for the end of 2015 but the Energy Information Administration estimates U.S. production slipped to 9.24 million in December. That’s hardly an all-out collapse.
All of this matters because the 70% plunge in oil prices since mid-2014 has been fueled by an epic supply glut. The oversupply has largely been created by skyrocketing U.S. output, which surged from just 4.6 million barrels per day in October 2005 to a high of 9.69 million last year, according to the EIA.
…
How long can they operate at a loss?
Should we print some money and bail them out too?
guess they lose less money pumping oil than closing the rigs
How much did they donate to the DNC?
But to answer your snarky question, I looked up the answer for you. And you are about to get PWNED.
Democratic National Cmte, received from the Energy and Natural Resource Sector:
2008: $2.2 million
2010: $619K
2012: $2 million
2014: $678.5K
2016 (so far): $168K
http://www.opensecrets.org/parties/indus.php?cmte=DNC&cycle=2008
And here are the numbers for Republican National Cmte, received from the Energy and Natural Resource Sector:
2008: $9.4 million
2010: $1.4 million
2012: $14 million
2014: $4.6 million
2016 (so far): $3 million
http://www.opensecrets.org/parties/indus.php?cmte=RNC&cycle=2008
So much for loving the DNC, eh.
Goes perfectly with a lack of understanding of intellectual property.
Business
Tue Jan 26, 2016 | 2:58 AM EST
China shares tumble to 14-month lows as oil slips back
An investor walks past an electronic screen showing stock information at a brokerage house in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, January 21, 2015.
REUTERS/China Daily
By Samuel Shen and Pete Sweeney
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Chinese shares plunged more than 6 percent to 14-month lows on Tuesday after oil prices dropped again, reviving concerns about global growth and prompting a sell-off in the world’s equity markets.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC ended down 6.4 percent after a late selling frenzy at 2749.79 points, its lowest close since Dec. 1, 2014.
The CSI300 index of the largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen dropped 6 percent to 2940.51, also its lowest since the beginning of December 2014.
After a rebound on Friday and early Monday, crude prices fell back below $30 a barrel, not far from last week’s 12-year lows, ending a couple of days of gains for Wall Street stocks.
China’s fickle stock markets have now slumped about 22 percent so far this year on concerns about the slowing economy and confusion over the central bank’s foreign exchange policy.
…
Do you live in a stock market panic room?
What’s your plan if the pain spreads to housing?
“Wall Street never predicts a recession. And that’s basically why the stock market goes up for 5-7 years on a slow escalator, and then plunges down an elevator shaft during several quarters of violent after-the-fact retraction when an economic and profits downturn has already arrived.
According to these Keynesian Cool-Aid drinkers, the US economy is doing “just fine” because job growth is robust, real wages are rising and the consumer is fixing to commence a shopping spree at any moment now. And since stocks have purportedly never gone deep into bear market territory in the absence of a recession, what’s to worry?
That’s right. Auto lenders—especially the legions of subprime nonbank operations that have sprung up with junk bond financing——have been extending credit to anyone who can fog a rear view mirror. Indeed, since mid-2010 when the auto recovery incepted, auto credit outstanding is up by $340 billion or by 90% of the $375 billion gain in auto sales.
And that’s where the skunk in the woodpile is hiding. During the next 5 years a veritable tsunami of used vehicles will come off lease and loan and flood the used car market, thereby reversing the virtuous cycle of debt fueled new car sales that may well have peaked last fall.
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/why-dip-buyers-will-get-clobbered-the-us-economy-isnt-doing-just-fine/
From David Stockman’s article: “Like then, the pool of credit worthy borrowers has been depleted, meaning that it is only a matter if time before the debt fueled auto boom of recent years goes pear-shaped.”
It is only a matter of time? Yes, it’s only a matter of ONE YEAR of time. After that, auto financers are suddenly going to find that, not only are very few people are creditworthy, but they will have to eat 5% of the new un-creditworthy.
I keep posting this but since I don’t get much of answer, I’ll post it again. Auto loan companies are going to get a nice piece of coal in their stocking next Christmas. Those Dodd-Frank requirements that an auto buyer and loan originator must adhere to in order to meet the QAL requirements are going to kick in. In other words, if a buyer doesn’t follow this QAL rule, they have to retain 5% of the loans when they are securitized. [And I have to assume that all of these fog-a-mirror loans are securitized. No lender would keep any of this trash paper.]
In the past, securitizers could get away with retaining risk for a “representative sample” within a bundle of securities, allowing them to slice and dice as they please. No more. This 5% applies to each individual auto loan.
So here we go:
————————-
Compliance with the rule with regard to all other classes of asset-backed securities is required beginning December 24, 2016.
__.18 Underwriting standards for qualifying automobile loans.
(a) Underwriting, product and other standards. (1) Prior to origination of the automobile loan, the originator:
(i) Verified and documented that within 30 days of the date of
origination:
(A) The borrower was not currently 30 days or more past due, in whole or in part, on any debt obligation;
(B) Within the previous 24 months, the borrower has not been 60 days or more past due, in whole or in part, on any debt obligation;
(C) Within the previous 36 months, the borrower has not:
(1) Been a debtor in a proceeding commenced under Chapter 7 (Liquidation), Chapter 11 (Reorganization), Chapter 12 (Family Farmer or Family Fisherman plan), or Chapter 13 (Individual Debt Adjustment) of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code; or
(2) Been the subject of any federal or State judicial judgment for the collection of any unpaid debt;
(D) Within the previous 36 months, no one-to-four family property owned by the borrower has been the subject of any foreclosure, deed in lieu of foreclosure, or short sale; or
(E) Within the previous 36 months, the borrower has not had any personal property repossessed;
(ii) Determined and documented that the borrower has at least 24 months of credit history; and
(iii) Determined and documented that, upon the origination of the loan, the borrower’s DTI ratio is less than or equal to 36 percent.
(A) For the purpose of making the determination under paragraph (a)(1)(iii) of this section, the originator must:
(1) Verify and document all income of the borrower that the originator includes in the borrower’s effective monthly income (using payroll stubs, tax returns, profit and loss statements, or other similar documentation); and
(2) On or after the date of the borrower’s written application and prior to origination, obtain a credit report regarding the borrower from a consumer reporting agency that compiles and maintain files on consumers on a nationwide basis (within the meaning of 15 U.S.C. 1681a(p)) and verify that all outstanding debts reported in the borrower’s credit report are incorporated into the calculation of the borrower’s DTI ratio under paragraph (a)(1)(iii) of this section;
(2) An originator will be deemed to have met the requirements of paragraph (a)(1)(i) of this section if:
(i) The originator, no more than 30 days before the closing of the loan, obtains a credit report regarding the borrower from a consumer reporting agency that compiles and maintains files on consumers on a nationwide basis (within the meaning of 15 U.S.C. 1681a(p));
(ii) Based on the information in such credit report, the borrower meets all of the requirements of paragraph (a)(1)(i) of this section, and no information in a credit report subsequently obtained by the originator before the closing of the
loan contains contrary information; and
(iii) The originator obtains electronic or hard copies of the credit report.
(3) At closing of the automobile loan, the borrower makes a down payment from the borrower’s personal funds and trade-in allowance, if any, that is at least equal to the sum of:
(i) The full cost of the vehicle title, tax, and registration fees;
(ii) Any dealer-imposed fees;
(iii) The full cost of any additional warranties, insurance or other products purchased in connection with the purchase of the vehicle; and
(iv) 10 percent of the vehicle purchase
price.
(4) The originator records a first lien securing the loan on the purchased vehicle in accordance with State law.
(5) The terms of the loan agreement provide a maturity date for the loan that does not exceed the lesser of:
(i) Six years from the date of origination; or
(ii) 10 years minus the difference between the current model year and the vehicle’s model year.
(6) The terms of the loan agreement:
(i) Specify a fixed rate of interest for the life of the loan;
(ii) Provide for a level monthly payment amount that fully amortizes the amount financed over the loan term;
(iii) Do not permit the borrower to defer repayment of principal or payment of interest; and
(iv) Require the borrower to make the first payment on the automobile loan within 45 days of the loan’s contract date.
—————
Got that everybody? You need
2 years of pretty good credit,
3 years of no BKs or repos
DTI of 36%
fully documented income and credit report
Down payment of 10% of price PLUS all fees taxes etc with your own money
Six-year loan max
Fixed rate, no deferred interest or balloon payments
If you can’t do all that, your loan guy has to keep 5% of your sorry butt. Instead of “running out” of good buyers gradually, which is what happened in 2006 for housing, automakers are going to run out of buyers, suddenly. To be honest, I look forward to not being crowded and tailgated by shiny new SUVs and Tacomas driven by people who obviously can’t afford them.
(I’ll post the link in a few minutes)
It will be the best thing to happen to America in quite a while if every odd mo-ron can’t buy a monster truck.
Thank you for answering, Oddfellow. I’ve been banging on this point for months. And yes, I’m tired of the monster trucks, while I still drive a paid-off little beater. It’s the reason why I look this up. I want to see the looks on these people’s faces when the auto dealer asks for three years of W-2’s and 10-15% down to buy a $45K truck, or no loan for them.
Here’s the link to the Federal Register: https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2014-12-24/pdf/2014-29256.pdf
Warning, PDF, and the QAL is on page 160/166.
The anger is ironic. Angry at idiots who buy a $50,000 truck that they “cannot afford”. Angry that they share the road with your virtuous debt free humblemobile. All the while laboring under a $500,000 obligation on a shack on cinderblocks that you couldn’t afford.
I am still waiting for the renters on HBB to inform me that they have pre-paid their next 20 years of rent.
I am not worried. I am guessing that you have at least 15- 20 years on me. By the time I am your age I will be debt free as well, and will probably have enough cash to buy 5-6 crapshacks in your area.
And damn right my humblemobile is debt free. Isn’t that what HBB keeps telling me to do?
Penny wise and pound foolish.
It would be interesting to see what kind of advice you give to young eager debt donkeys in 20 years. If it is like my advice based on retrospection of decades of servicing debt they will mock you as well.
It would take a couple of million to buy 5 or 6 average shacks in my area. Good for you if you have accumulated this much cash after 20 years of debt service. You have a spreadsheet no doubt. In any case, you will have spent half a million more than me for housing by then, and will not have any more than me to show for it.
Donk,
Locking in your shelter costs at 2x current rental rates is nothing to boast about.
If you can’t do all that, your loan guy has to keep 5% of your sorry butt.
Won’t the factory owned finance firms just go ahead and do that? Those pickups have huge profit margins.
Colorado, maybe they will. But, 5% off the top? That’s gotta hurt. And every 5% will bit into their reserves (I remember Polly saying this), so can’t play pass-through forever.
5 percent of a 30,000
$1500
That’s not enough to even begin to deter anyone, ever.
$3000 average profit, 100% failure rate, you’re still doing fine.
All that program is going to do is make used cars of say, 10 years old, worth triple what they are now so as to make the needed trade in value to make the 22%(tax license and title are over 11% in most places) down payment.
That’s 22% plus toys, warranties and laha, so your sled trade in will have to cover it.
The factories will build another $8000 in to sticker price to cover.
Retail price versus actual sales price will he a contention.
One would hope that the number of wage slobs willing to make $800/mo payments on a rig would tend to get exhausted.
Rebates count as down payment.
Some states pretax, some post tax.
Offer 20% rebate…. Tadaaaa!
oxide: I keep posting this but since I don’t get much of answer, I’ll post it again. Auto loan companies are going to get a nice piece of coal in their stocking next Christmas. Those Dodd-Frank requirements that an auto buyer and loan originator must adhere to in order to meet the QAL requirements are going to kick in. In other words, if a buyer doesn’t follow this QAL rule, they have to retain 5% of the loans when they are securitized.
Just as with housing, my guess would be that the onset of the rule will be extended and then defanged. That’s what happened with QM/QRM.
There’s a big show of grand theoretical principles when people are watching, but then the lobbyists set in on the unexciting minutiae which resets the “Privatize the profits, socialize the losses” business model back to its pristine form.
+1, Neuromance.
No, QRM was defanged during the comment and revision process. These requirements are the final rule, after the comment period. Only Congress can defang it by passing a specific law to override (they are trying to defang one part, but not this.)
A friend of mine made an astute observation about the Financial Crisis: “These are powerful people whose fortunes are at stake. They’re not just going to sit back and do nothing.”
Nowadays our society is following the path that every other society follows - the enshrining in law of the protection of privilege. This is done by de facto legalizing bribery through our campaign finance laws (”If money is speech, rich people have a lot more speech than you”).
Different societies have done it differently in the paste, through some sort of nobility or caste/class system. This is the path we’re taking. The Citigroup Plutonomy memo was a harbinger.
Privatize the profits, socialize the losses is one of those policies to help protect privilege. It is a fantastic business model if you can get it. However, only a very few can - the few that can own politicians.
From the link:
“The final definition of QRM does not incorporate either an LTV ratio requirement or standards related to a borrower’s credit history, such as those in the alternative QM-plus approach discussed in the reproposal. As the agencies explained in the reproposal, although credit history and LTV ratio are significant factors in determining the probability of mortgage default and are important aspects in prudent underwriting, on balance, the agencies believe policy considerations weigh in favor of aligning QRM with QM at this time.” - p. 88
The whole CFPB/QM thing was an effective sideshow, briefly.
Also this: “In addition, the private-label RMBS market remains extremely small and limited to mortgages of very high credit quality. In the second quarter of 2014, less than 1 percent of mortgage originations were funded through private-label RMBS.” - p. 89
Nationalizing the mortgage finance market was the end game that started with the Depression.
Indemnifying Wall Street against losses, preventing creative destruction at the top, is a significant step in the protection of privilege and the ossification of society.
“Society is like a stew. If you don’t stir it up every once in a while then a layer of scum floats to the top.” - Edward Abbey
“I am still waiting for the renters on HBB to inform me that they have pre-paid their next 20 years of rent.”
The beauty of rent is that you don’t NEED to prepay it or lock in the amount of future payments, unlike a mortgage. If rents drop, renters enjoy lower monthly payments while underwater homeowners stay locked into their same high monthly FOREVER.
What’s your plan if the pain spreads to housing?
Buy eventually?
Marketwatch dot com
Opinion: Ask yourself these questions before you dump stocks and funds in a panic
By Chuck Jaffe
Published: Jan 25, 2016 5:08 a.m. ET
Have a solid investment plan to weather stormy markets
When the stock market is nerve-wracking as it has been, investors need to make sure that any decisions they make are part of the big plan instead of the result of panic.
That’s easier said than done. While some investors can stay the course and never worry about the market’s short-term volatility, others need to do something to feel like they are in control.
Indeed, anyone truly convinced that a massive bear market is about to begin is likely out of the market already. For example, some $24 billion was pulled from stock funds over the first three weeks of 2016, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Most investors, meanwhile, are simply unsure of what to do next. And here’s where it’s appropriate to check the panic meter.
The physical symptoms of a panic attack include a racing heart, sweats or chills, feeling faint or dizzy, a sense of impending doom or terror, a perceived loss of control and more. Investors who feel any of those things about their portfolio have a mix that’s off-kilter with their risk tolerance.
They feel panic because they aren’t comfortable with the market’s prospects and/or can’t live with any plan they have in place. At that point, hanging on and hoping for the best — even if it’s a viable strategy — may not be realistic.
…
If my math is right, then twenty-six years ago was 1990, when a bad recession began.
The Wall Street Journal
Markets
Oil, Stocks at Tightest Correlation in 26 Years
The link reflects a common theme—a fear of a global recession
By Tommy Stubbington and Georgi Kantchev
Updated Jan. 25, 2016 2:39 p.m. ET
Oil and stock markets have moved in lockstep this year, a rare coupling that highlights fears about global economic growth.
As oil prices tumbled early in 2016, global equities recorded one of their worst-ever starts for a new year. On Monday, oil and stocks werre lower again.
…
Oil, Stocks at Tightest Correlation
It is pointless to look for correlation for things that do not cause each other. The cause is elsewhere, as in Easy Money.
You just need to remember that correlation doesn’t indicate causation. Then there’s third c-word, which is coincidence.
Then there’s third c-word, which is coincidence.
And you missed a fourth: co-correlated. Both can be correlated with a different, third thing—which is causally related to both.
In other words, what Blue said: Easy Money can mis-price everything at the same time, causing them to appear correlated.
Lpfifth is most important. Crater.
“Easy Money can mis-price everything at the same time, causing them to appear correlated.”
Easy Money is called a confounder. The noncoincidental correlation accross the prices of almost all risk assets on the planet reflect the confounding causal influence of Easy Money.
According to the dates shown at this site, the recession lasted from July 1990 through March 1991, or eight months. However, to my recollection, the recession in California dragged on for years longer. Also, the national hiring picture didn’t turn around until 1994 or so.
When a recession ends seems to depend on where you look and whom you ask.
https://www.titlemax.com/title-loans/
Pull that equity why u can!
“About 7,730 car title lenders operate in 21 states, charging borrowers $3.6 billion in interest on $1.6 billion in loans each year. A typical borrower receives cash equal to 26 percent of a car’s value and pays an annual percentage rate of 300 percent.
Oct 29, 2013
“The Consumer Perils Of A Car Title Loan | Bankrate.com
http://www.bankrate.com/finance/auto/consumer-perils-car-title-loan.aspxBankrate“
That link is hosed. Here’s another link; a different article but it has similar info:
http://www.dmcccorp.org/edu/the-consumer-perils-of-a-car-title-loan/
“Is it worth the risk of losing your car for a loan that charges 300 percent interest?”
I don’t know, Jessica. Why don’t you take yourself down to TitleMax and ask the customers what they will use the loaned money for?
Marketwatch dot com
If China slows, where will oil demand come from?
By Bradley Olson
Published: Jan 25, 2016 8:18 p.m. ET
A bedrock belief among oil forecasters has been that China’s voracious appetite for fossil fuels would stoke global energy demand for decades to come. That assumption now appears increasingly shaky.
A highly anticipated new energy-demand projection from Exxon Mobil Corp. released Monday cuts the company’s expectations for China. And a slew of data is emerging that points to the toll a weakened economy has taken on Chinese energy demand, which is among the most important factors in determining the price of crude oil.
Exxon cut its forecast for annual energy-demand growth in China by almost a 10th to 2.2% a year through 2025. Over a decade, the revision amounts to more than Brazil’s current annual oil consumption. Exxon also predicts that China’s thirst for energy will peak by 2030.
The company played down the change to its figures based on its previously held view that China’s working population is reaching its apex, said Bill Colton, vice president of corporate strategic planning.
“Countries sometimes have to go through transitions,” he said. “One thing about economics, it’s never a straight line.”
Oil prices fell 7.4% to $29.80 a barrel after Chinese data released Monday showed that diesel fuel use fell in 2015 from a year earlier.
A study issued last week by consultancy ESAI Energy said China’s oil-demand growth rate between now and 2030 would be less than half that of the previous 15-year period.
“If demand won’t come from China, who will step in to fill China’s shoes?” said Erica Downs, a senior analyst for the Eurasia Group who focuses on the country’s energy sector.
Some energy companies have already taken concrete steps to pivot from oil because China’s economic transformation and global efforts to reduce carbon emissions make its future less certain.
Royal Dutch Shell PLC, Chevron Corp. and others have pursued multibillion-dollar projects that hinge on natural gas, which emits less carbon than oil and is cheaper or more lucrative to use in power generation. Some analysts believe gas will eventually overtake oil as the world’s most dominant source of fuel.
Shell is in the finishing stages of acquiring global gas powerhouse BG Group PLC for $50 billion, while Chevron and partners are spending more than $80 billion to build two massive plants in Australia that will liquefy natural gas so it can be shipped overseas to Asia and beyond.
But those steps may prove problematic if energy demand doesn’t pick up in emerging economies.
Chinese energy consumption rose just 0.9% last year, according to government estimates, as gross domestic product increased 6.9%, the weakest annual rate in a quarter century. The unexpected short-term drop casts a shadow over the prospect of an oil-price rally this year. U.S. and global benchmark crude prices fell below $27 a barrel last week for the first time since 2003.
The current oil glut was initially spurred by technology breakthroughs that unlocked more fuel reserves from the ground. But the oversupply is being prolonged and deepened by weaker-than-expected demand.
That confluence of factors has made this oil downturn particularly difficult to resolve. If tepid Chinese energy consumption continues, it could raise profound questions about the stability of oil and gas producers around the world, analysts say.
…
Is the bull dead, or merely passed out from a long bender?
Forbes
Investing
Trending Now
Jan 25, 2016 @ 12:33 PM
Investor Alert: We’re Firmly In A Bear Market
Intelligent Investing
Ideas from Forbes Investor Team
Clem Chambers, Contributor
I’ve been writing article after article about how we are coming into a period where a crash is highly likely.
Well, here we are.
Make no mistake, we are in a bear market and have been since early last year.
A bear market is not defined as after a market has fallen, as the clueless now describe it, but when a market is going on a persistent downward trend. A bear market starts the moment that trend begins, not after it has fallen 20%.
In the Dow’s case that was in May 2015 or even as early as February of that year. According to my indicators, the bear began its gestation in early 2014, but whenever the date of birth was, it is now in full swing.
Can you look at this chart and say the trend is up? Only if you are a hardcore market random walk purist can you fight the obvious implication of the S&P 500 chart.
The most important call in investing is knowing if you are in a bear or bull market. It’s utterly obvious when you think about it but how often do you hear people discuss that?
Once you know which market you are in, investing gets much easier.
In a bull market, if you apply a bit of diversification, you buy stocks and make money. You have to be pretty clueless or terribly unlucky to lose money being long in a bull market. In a bear, you stay in cash and fiddle with special opportunities. If you are really brave and skilled in a bear market you go short.
It is very hard to make money long in a bear market. As the latest cliché goes, in a bear it’s about return of capital not return on capital. It is really that easy and that simple. If you call a bear a bull, you lose and vice versa.
If you don’t know if you are in a bull or bear market you shouldn’t be in the market at all and if you ask many investors their opinion on the matter they will give you a blank look.
So let’s be clear. We are in a bear market.
…
the trend is your friend.
For a sense of perspective, here’s a long-term chart of the S&P 500 …
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5Egspc+interactive#{”range”:”max”,”allowChartStacking”:true}
In a bear, you stay in cash and fiddle with special opportunities
Seems like it would be better to be going long in a bear market. Isn’t that when stocks are cheaper?
That’s known as “catching a falling knife.”
So when do you buy?
1. When others are too scared or broke to buy.
2. When there is blood in the streets.
3. When your friends and neighbors say you would be crazy to buy stocks.
But that would be in the throes of a bear market. The writer was saying you mostly stay in cash in a bear.
#1,2,3 ?
Wasn’t that the case after the September 2008 meltdown ??
September 2008
Merely an appetizer.
Merely an appetizer ??
Only because of the to big to fail bailouts…Without them, it would have been a food court instead of a appetizer…Nobody would have been spared degrees of pain including you BS…
To the pain.
It was not spared. It was spread around, spread out and multiplied. My pain after 2008 was in continuing to have to pay more for the necessities of life, and now more national debt for the entire foreseeable future. The shame is that we did not get it over with and start fresh on a sustainable path.
1. When others are too scared or broke to buy.
So I just have to wait for the hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, and central banks to go broke?
Won’t we be heading to our bug-out sites when that happens?
Won’t we be heading to our bug-out sites when that happens?
No. Society will not break down because more accurate pricing is applied in many area at once.
Society will not break down because more accurate pricing is applied in many area at once.
Will it break down if the central banks have gone broke?
“Wasn’t that the case after the September 2008 meltdown ??”
March 2009 turned out to be the time to back up the truck. Thanks alot, Fed!
Will it break down if the central banks have gone broke?
How can they possibly “go broke”, when they can e-print as much money as they want, and lend it out at interest? The e-printed money is arguably “fake”, but the interest earned is all too real. What a racket!
So let’s be clear. We are in a bear market ??
Maybe…So money comes out of the stock market, real estate, emerging economies and goes where ?? Swedish bonds ? German Bonds ? US Treasuries ? Looks like interest rates are going to stay low for awhile…
Consider that there isn’t actually any “money” in the stock market.
Then what do you receive ion return for selling it ??
If your stock doubles, where did the money come from?
I did not say anything about stock doubling…I said if it comes out, in essence it was sold;
“So money comes out of the stock market, real estate, emerging economies and goes where”
I am not trying to be obscure Dave. My point is that there isn’t any money in the stock market, only a “valuation”. If you sell stocks the money comes from someone’s pocket and goes into yours. No net increase in money, so it doesn’t have to “go” anywhere. The stock market could sell off to zero valuation and there would not be an increase in money supply.
Dave wants to hear they will buy hoses, right?
Looks like interest rates are going to stay low for awhile…”
yep
Time for negative rates, yet?
Looks like the big investors are bailing, leaving the retail “investors” holding the bag, yet again.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/01/25/this-stock-market-is-really-sick-and-big-institutional-investors-are-bailing-out/
The sickness is over-valuation.
The cure is 50 percent plus to the downside.
Happens the same way every time.
With reductions in equities and bonds, what are they going to buy?
“Long-dated illiquid strategies,” that’s where asset allocations are heading. In order of magnitude of the shift: private credit (“over half” plan to increase their portfolios), real assets (53% increase v. 4% decrease), real estate (47% increase v. 9% decrease), and private equity (39% increase v. 9% decrease).’
real estate ? That won’t go over well on this Blog….
real estate ? That won’t go over well on this Blog….
I’m ok with it; by so doing, they may well help form a true blow-off top, and the unavoidable return to sanity that always follows…
A preview of what ‘Muricans can expect once we have our own Frau Merkel, the globalist Hillary Clinton. The DNC must feel enraptured as they calculate all those new entitlement programs and recipients.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/01/26/dentist-association-warns-treating-migrants-terrible-teeth-will-cost-taxpayer-billions/
The snowflakes are confused. All of their lives they’ve been conditioned and indoctrinated to vote straight D, but now one D says another is dishonest and corrupt. Of course these dull-eyed slugs lack the intellectual capacity for critical thinking and forming their own opinions, and their usual DNC talking points provide no clarity in this situation. The cognitive dissonance must be causing their lobotomy scars to throb all over again….
http://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-young-bernie-sanders-supporter-question-cnn-town-hall-2016-1
Add to that one R saying that the others are corrupt. That adds up to a lot of confused people.
Adding to the confusion: both are correct.
A cultural Marxist professor (is there any other kind?) who tried to block a student journalist from exercising his First Amendment rights now faces assault charges that could cost her her job.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/01/25/bullying-mizzou-professor-charged-assaulting-journalist/
That made me laugh and laugh. Such are the wages of thuggery.
The PPT has trying to levitate the algos, again. Regardless, the market will still close red today.
“A striking feature of the past five years, following the Great Recession, has been lackluster revenue growth across many industries. This reflects slow economic growth rates, low inflation, weak wage-growth, overcapacity, and a lack of pricing power. Higher profitability has been driven by cost savings, rather than increases in revenue.
Loose central-bank monetary policy also has facilitated M&A activity. Ample availability of funding at historically low rates and credit margins has helped finance activity. Facing subdued loan demand, banks have been keen lenders into such transactions. Searching for yield, capital market investors have been eager buyers of debt, both investment and increasingly non-investment quality, originated to finance mergers, acquisitions, and corporate restructurings.
Low interest rates and quantitative easing programs have also lowered equity risk premiums, driving stock prices higher. This has increased share prices, allowing companies, particularly in technology and biotechnology, to use their own stock as currency for purchasing businesses at elevated valuations.
Mergers and acquisitions have underpinned stock prices, generated fees for investment banks and consultants, and allowed private equity to prosper. But the impact on the economy at large may be less positive.”
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/memo-to-bubblevision-last-years-4-6-trillion-global-ma-boom-was-a-sign-of-economic-weakness-not-c-suite-confidence/
Its quite interesting revenues keep falling but EPS keeps rising.
By giving your money to wall street you are conceding that they are better than you.
The Pineapples, explained.
http://www.nature.com/news/monkeys-genetically-modified-to-show-autism-symptoms-1.19228
The European Court of Auditors has strongly criticised the European Commission’s handling of the Irish bailout, highlighting its failure to notice warning-signs in the run-up to the financial crisis.
In a hard-hitting report published this morning, the EU spending watchdog also pointed to the absence of key documentation relating to bailout decisions, noting that certain documents are still missing.
The report into the European Commission’s management of five bailout programmes found that it failed to spot a number of warning signs including the emergence of high budget deficits for Ireland, Latvia, Portugal and Romania.
In particular, it cites a Commission analysis of the Irish economy from March 2008 which found that ‘the risks attached to the budgetary projections are broadly neutral for 2008’. But the European Court of Auditors report notes that by the end of 2008 the fiscal balance was lower than forecast by 7 per cent of GDP.
Noting that the European Commission already had oversight responsibility for member states’ budgets in the years preceding the financial crisis, the report concludes that “the European Commission estimated the countries’ public budgets to be stronger than they actually turned out to be.”
http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/european-commission-s-handling-of-irish-bailout-strongly-criticised-1.2510807
Burned Chinese stock market investors are rediscovering gold as a store of wealth and hedge against central bank currency debasement.
http://www.reuters.com/article/china-gold-imports-idUSP9N12N014
Meanwhile they vacate the USD. The draining noise getting louder and louder is the end of the Fed. Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dashcoin, gold, platinum, silver.
They need to vacate the homes they bought in USA. The fun will begin then.
Litecoin
Is that low-fat or low-carb?
Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dashcoin, gold
Think I’ll create a new EasyCoin. Or maybe NewCoin. HmmCoin?
Lolacoin
Will China’s be the first central banker Ponzi market to capitulate?
http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-stocks-plunged-to-13-month-lows-2016-1
so how is replacing asset inflation with savings from production working out?
Rising unemployment and unfunded pensions.
Another Hillary Clinton/John McCain success story.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/libyas-oil-guards-accused-of-siphoning-off-countrys-supplies-for-profit-a6833401.html
Another socialist utopia runs out of other people’s money. This is what happens when the parasites can take at will from the producers. Coming soon to a Democrat supermajority-maladministered country near you.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-smuggling-insight-idUSKCN0UY1IT
The Egg McMuffin has officially saved McDonald’s
It’s now been a little over three months since McDonald’s introduced all-day breakfast—the menu addition that customers had long clamored for—across the US.
And were there any doubts about the magical powers of the Egg McMuffin, just-released fourth-quarter results from the burger giant should be quashing them.
McDonald’s said Monday (Jan. 25) that sales at stores open for at least 13 months jumped 5.7% for the quarter ended Dec. 31. That’s the best US same-store sales figure the chain has reported in almost four years. Shares opened up nearly 3%, and were hovering around $120, near an all-time high, as of early afternoon.
“All-day breakfast was clearly the primary driver of the quarter,” Steve Easterbrook, McDonald’s CEO, told investors on a post-earnings conference call. “We knew it would be.”
http://qz.com/602260/the-egg-mcmuffin-has-officially-saved-mcdonalds/
Firesign theater - bass player …. egg a muffin…….
you will need to turn this up to hear it…..
Linky here…..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6×5HUXFxmo
A violin is a wimpy thang….wimpy wambly wambly…..
Can you say ‘egg mcmuffin’?
I’d rather take a trip to the magic kingdom.
Never had it. Maybe time to try.
Predator vs. Alien.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-26/china-warns-soros-against-starting-fx-war-ha-ha-you-cannot-possibly-succeed
I sometimes wonder why no one has taken out Soros given his history.
‘Muricans say they don’t trust the gub’mint, yet 95% continue to vote for the status quo. The stupid, it burns….
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/01/25/glenn-reynolds-polling-confidence-government-obama-elections-column/79264470/
Where is my Keynesian Cool-Aid Drinker today?
How much will the Saudis deposit in Bill and Hillary’s bank account(s) for services rendered? Or will they just send their dipomats and students to “speeches” at $250K a pop?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/12121546/Payment-of-681m-into-accounts-of-Malaysian-PM-was-a-gift-from-Saudi-royals.html
Case-Shiller misses, again.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-26/case-shiller-home-prices-miss-7th-month-row-seasonal-adjustments-dominate-gains
As long as there are shorts in this stock market the central bankers will continue to squeeze them out. It has been going on for 7 years. Just when it looks like markets will crater buying action comes in and forces shorts to cover.
What will happen when there are no short sellers left?
How much money have short sellers lost since 2008?
Breitbart abandons all pretense of libertarianism, provides a neocon narrative:
http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/01/26/npr-erases-israel-from-the-map/
Neocons gonna neocon.
Libertarians, isolationists, must be brought into the fold.
FoxNewsHate led with five articles on ISIS yesterday. A narrative which has strangely disappeared today. Maybe an Iran narrative will work instead.
American taxpayers you are getting raped to pay for all of this.
And William Kristol is laughing at you. All of you.
Salon dot com provides a Hillary narrative from incestuous child molester, false rape accuser, and self-proclaimed feminist Lena Dunham:
http://www.salon.com/2016/01/25/lena_dunham_slams_media_for_rabidly_sexist_coverage_of_hillary_clinton/
New York Times real journalists provide a Trump/Cruz narrative:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/01/27/us/politics/ted-cruz-donald-trump-republican-establishment.html
Mornin boyz and girlz…
Your morning job report update….
Employment rate fell in 25 states in December
The Labor Department is out with the details of the state jobs report for the month of December. Some highlights:
the jobless rate declined in 25 states.
North Dakota had a low us unemployment rate of 2.7%
New Mexico has had the highest jobless rate at 6.7%.
Missouri and Oregon showed biggest declines in unemployment in December
Illinois showed the biggest drop in payrolls in December
ILLANNOY - Don’t move here you won’t like it and you will be broke with no job.
“out with the details…”
Unfortunate wording as their “data” is 90% model adjustments.
“With every sale Jos. A. Bank stole its future purchases, because when you buy one suit and get three for free, you may not need to buy another one for a while.But there is also a snowball effect that you cannot ignore: Every ad chipped away at the company’s brand. Now when you show someone that you wear a Jos. A. Bank suit, they don’t think about its quality, just that you have two or three more suits in your closet.
The Fed is betting on George Soros’ theory of reflexivity, in which people’s biases and actions can change the economy: Instead of the wagon being towed by the horse, the wagon, in expectation that it will be towed by the horse, starts moving on its own, thereby motivating the horse to start towing the wagon.Lower interest rates drive people to riskier assets, and as asset values go up, people feel confident and spend money, and the economy grows. But this policy puts us on very shaky ground, because reflexivity cuts both ways: If asset prices start to decline, confidence declines — and so will the economy. Now there are a lot more savers owning riskier assets than they otherwise would have, and their wealth is at risk of getting wiped out.
The third lesson from the parallels between the Fed and Jos. A. Bank: We are in the midst of a game of musical chairs, and when the music stops, no one wants to be left standing around holding risky assets. Everyone is focused on the Fed’s tapering, and they are right to do so. Just as we saw with Jos. A. Bank, economic promotions cannot go on forever. With every sale the company had to increase the ante, giving away more and more to get people to come into its stores. The Fed may continue to buy Treasuries and mortgage securities, but the purchases will be less and less effective. And the music may stop on its own, without the Fed doing anything about it.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-26/ben-bernanke-buy-one-suit-get-three-free
Last night I was watching an old promo video for United’s new DC-8 airliner. All the male passengers were wearing suits (and the ladies were quite dolled up too)
Who wears suits now anyway? Last year I attended a funeral at a large funeral home in Denver. There were a few other funerals/viewings at the same time as ours. While at the funeral I attended men wore suits (as did I) I noticed that at all the other ones people were dressed as if they just came from Walmart: jeans, sneakers, some even wore T-shirts.
I get that not everyone owns a suit these days, but I would have expected them to own some khakis, a dress shirt, a tie and some real shoes. I guess I was wrong, or maybe they just couldn’t be bothered.
During business hours, the Goon is often the best dressed person in the room.
It may only be off the rack from Brooks Brothers, but it’s incalculably better than the People of Walmart you have described.
“Fresh and def til the day I rest” — Jay Z
In Denver, “formal” means a black down jacket, right?
I see the same jeans and T-shirts at the National Symphony Orchestra concerts at the Kennedy Center.
“Last year I attended a funeral at a large funeral home in Denver. There were a few other funerals/viewings at the same time as ours.”
Any Bronco fans in a La-Z-Boy?
Family has unique viewing at funeral home
Jul 6, 2005
Associated Press
PITTSBURGH — James Henry Smith was a zealous Pittsburgh Steelers fan in life, and even death could not keep him from his favorite spot: in a recliner, in front of a TV showing his beloved team in action.
Smith, 55, of Pittsburgh, died of prostate cancer Thursday. Because his death wasn’t unexpected, his family was able to plan for an unusual viewing Tuesday night.
The Samuel E. Coston Funeral Home erected a small stage in a viewing room, and arranged furniture on it much as it was in Smith’s home on game day Sundays.
Smith’s body was on the recliner, his feet crossed and a remote in his hand. He wore black and gold silk pajamas, slippers and a robe. A pack of cigarettes and a beer were at his side, while a high-definition TV played a continuous loop of Steelers highlights.
“I couldn’t stop crying after looking at the Steeler blanket in his lap,” said his sister, MaryAnn Nails, 58. “He loved football and nobody did [anything] until the game went off. It was just like he was at home.”
Longtime friend Mary Jones called the viewing “a celebration.”
“I saw it and I couldn’t even cry,” she said. “People will see him the way he was.”
Smith’s burial plans were more traditional; he’ll be laid to rest in a casket.
Weekend at Bernies.
After visiting the HBB for over a decade, all of the questions I have ever had about anything have been answered, except one.
“How the hell did you get the dog up there?”
“All animals are equal, except some animals are more equal than others” — George Orwell
Region VIII
Goon,
Did you see any grass-fed chickens up there?
“Chinese Lose Faith In Collapsing Stock Markets And Currency, Import Most Gold Since 2013″
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-26/chinese-gold-imports-soar-investors-lose-faith-collapsing-stock-markets-and-currency
Is this racis?
http://www.chicagonow.com/city-limits/2016/01/out-of-school-out-of-work-young-chicagos-jobs-crisis-hits-blacks-latinos-hardest/
still wont admit its severe functional illiteracy that is the problem and not race
Barry the Debt-Peddler
http://goo.gl/Ke61yX
Years ago here, we argued about whether the housing bubble fallout would be inflationary or deflationary. Combo’s argument resonated with me: that loose money and debt-growth (in the past) had been inflationary, and that the eventual destruction would be deflationary. I think the Fed pushed out the deflationary forces by a few years, but did not ultimately destroy them.
Are we finally seeing the deflationary forces at work? We are seeing: cheaper and cheaper commodities (which should eventually flow through production costs and into retail), the poof of money in stock markets around the world.
Any other deflationary forces that you folks can identify?
Do you see wages tripling or quadrupling to meet grossly inflated prices?
Of course not.
Prices will continue falling from grossly inflated levels to meet wages.
“Any other deflationary forces that you folks can identify?”
You’ve identified the prices of assets that Mr. Market decided to mark down; Next to be marked down will be the values of the debt that was associated with and given value by the previous prices, the previous prices that have been marked down.
This second markdown, the debt markdown, will (mostly) be done by by accountants and if you are positioned on the wrong end of this destined-to-be-marked down debt then your money will get to experience a disappearing act similar to the money that belonged to those who experienced the Mr. Market initiated asset price markdown.
In this screwy world we live in there seems to be is a strange relationship involving price, value and debt in that the interaction of any two components will affect the third component.
For example: price translates to value and value is used to back up debt, the same debt that is taken on and is spent to support a higher price level, a higher price level that creates a higher value which in turn supports an even higher level of debt.
which in turn supports an even higher level of debt.
And as that cycle runs in reverse, that debt goes bad…
Great point, Combo. We’re seeing this in oil stocks already; it will be interesting to see what other sectors hit the reverse button on their debt values most quickly.
“Donald Trump is a delusional narcissist and an orange-faced windbag. A speck of dirt is way more qualified to be president” - Rand Paul
Russ
You should see someone about the guilt from your deep-seated rectangular anger.
He wants to ride his bicycle…. in San Francisco.
https://youtu.be/ncQsBzI-JHc
Awww … Did the bad old libertarian hurt your delicate self esteem?
While they are working on your deep-seated anger issues perhaps you might mention your propensity for talking like a child.
I gotta speak the wawgwage of the giant babymen if I wants de twumpwings to stop making they boo boo faces, don’t I? Yes I do snookums!
You’re spiraling Russ. Get ahold of yourself.
I wish Rand had a shot. He is the only fiscal conservative, like me.
do u like his perm?
The GOP burned that bridge when they sandbagged Ron. They earned this… and the tears in November will be epic.
Maybe Trump will get Mitch McConnell to quit. If he made that promise, I’ll take Trump over Hillary, but not Bernie.
“He is the only fiscal conservative, like me.”
This must give a fiscal conservative, like you, the dry heaves.
$8,314,529,850,339.07: Debt Up $70,612.91 Per Household in Obama’s First 7 Years
By Terence P. Jeffrey
| January 26, 2016 | 12:44 PM EST
(CNSNews.com) - The debt of the federal government increased by $8,314,529,850,339.07 in President Barack Obama’s first seven years in office, according to official data published by the U.S. Treasury.
That equals $70,612.91 in net federal borrowing for each of the 117,480,000 households that the Census Bureau estimates were in the United States as of September.
Well you could easily double that to make it a taxpaying household.
when was the last time we had an ugly president?
Mirror mirror on the wall. Who is the biggest deficit spending president of them all.
Why…. why it’s Barack Obama!
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=200
Bad old Bawak is going away soon, poopypants. Now dry those tears hop on your mobility scooter… we’re going to Wal Mart.
“Bad old Bawak is going away soon, poopypants.”
I have seen this before.
Russ
Between the anger seething out of your posts and your propensity for baby-talk I must urge you to seek help before it’s too late.
Transgender Dad, 52, Living as a 6-Year-Old Girl … - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dCVRrybYWNE - 179k - Cached - Similar pages
Dec 11, 2015 …
I like Rand as well. Though Jim Webb would be my first choice.
Mr. Banker will like this chart……
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-banking-oligopoly-in-one-chart/
Yes! And any bank not on that chart is to be targeted for extermination.
Boyz and girlz -
There is a reason Mr. Banker is called the BIG BAD (and I mean BAAAAAD) BANK……
Houses in my town that sold for $300k in 2000, now close for $800k. Meanwhile income has moved up less then 10%.
Time to leave that town to the greater fools and move on.
Santa Barbara , Carmel, and Santa Cruz are even pricier.
When would I go? Belize?
Time to get creative. Been looking at New Hampshire (bonus: your license plates say “Live Free or Die”) and Maine. Plenty of woodland boltholes up there for not much money.
Trick is to arrange steady remote work.
Nobody believes you…… Lola. lol.
Collapsing demand, massive excess supply. Just like housing.
“Zombie Ships - Why Global Shipping Is Even Worse Than The Baltic Dry Suggests”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-26/zombie-ships-why-global-shipping-even-worse-baltic-dry-suggests
debt is burying the economy. their isnt enough real production to service the all the debt created out of thin air.
I think apologizing’s a great thing, but you have to be wrong. I will absolutely apologize, sometime in the hopefully distant future, if I’m ever wrong.
when u create too much bank credit and the economy doesnt create good jobs folks dont have discretionary income cause they are buried in debt.
the real problem here is creating credit out of thin air.
Mr. Trump,
You are a superb statesman with a squad of sexy strumpets.
The past year has been a very interesting one for Wal-Mart. For years — decades, really — the low-cost retailer has been a stout bulwark for low prices and low wages, against increasingly fierce pressure from left-wing activists who want Wal-Mart wages to be closer to those of the old manufacturing jobs that have disappeared. Wal-Mart ferociously refused to cave into pressure — until suddenly in February of last year, the company announced a substantial hike in its entry-level wages.
Good! let WMT shopper and stock holders pay the increased cost of labor, no more mooching off taxpayers that dont shop there. WMT has more workers on welfare then any other co. Mooching must stop!
I went into walmart today to use my bank atm. Did not buy anything.
Their prices on groceries have gotten high. Their meat section is weak.
I was buying eggs there until they doubled the price overnight one day.
I get some cat food there sometimes. Their motor oil is reasonable compared to the parts store.
“I get some cat food there sometimes.”
You really are degenerate gambler Poet. Have you considered a soup kitchen instead?
Their meat section is weak.
I bought a steak there once. Thought it tasted stew-y, pulled the label out of the trash and read the fine print. They brined a frickin’ t-bone. They brine all their steaks.
I don’t think stocking shelves is on par with manufacturing, nor should the wages be. The folks working at walmart are unskilled enough that they are going to end up on welfare one way or another. If you make them too expensive, they’ll get replaced by machines all the sooner.
sounds like too many unskilled workers zombies. They can pick up trash.
not my circus, not my monkeys.
Hey CalifoH20, I was in a store today and they were playing a song with sitar music. It went:
‘Summer breeze, makes me feel fine, blowing through the jasmine in my mind.’
For some reason, when I heard that last bit, I immediately thought of you.
I love the smell of Jasmine, Eucalyptus and peppermint.! Whole Foods has lots of samples to try if ya cant buy your own. Namaste.
http://i415.photobucket.com/albums/pp232/codetoad/TrumpHarsh.png
You like leaping Lolas of Central Asia.
Driving a truck for walmart is suppose to be highly sought after job.
The only ones making any real money in the stores are the managers.
I can’t imagine they get over 60k…. I guess it feels pretty posh compared to the worker bees.
“A Starbucks store manager makes an average $44,632 yearly salary, compared with $92,462 at Wal-Mart, while a Starbucks district manager makes an average $75,775 a year, according to an analysis of data from career website Glassdoor.com.Jul 23, 2014″
Wall Street Journal
Pretty good money, especially if you live in some smaller town in Flyover. You could afford a Very Large Truck.
Not too shabby for flyover.
I don’t think stocking shelves is on par with manufacturing, nor should the wages be.
I’d think it takes more intelligence and equal skill to stock shelves compared to bolting the same bolt to a car door repeatedly.
Industrial workers of the post-war period weren’t necessarily skilled artisans. They were just working schmucks who got a bigger slice of the pie than they do today.
Modern manufacturing is quite a bit more demanding… robots have the easy jobs.
Meanwhile back at the ranch in Iran…..
http://www.europac.com/commentaries/lifting_sanctions_iran_mixed_bag
How much are ‘re taxes going up in your county?
If my co fairfax,va gets their way it would be 9%
That’s a 2% eguity lose … approx
freedom to move to OR, MT, NH, AK or DE with no sales tax if you need to.
Maybe Obama ought to quit farting in office……sheeesh!
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Obama-Moves-To-Limit-Methane-Emissions.html
fart tax?
More and more it looks like Donald Trump is living in millions and millions of empty skulls….. all rent free.
BANKRUPT
Better check your blinker fluid Poet.
Hillary Clinton was the worst secretary of state in the history of the United States. There’s never been a secretary of state so bad as Hillary. The world blew up around us. We lost everything, including all relationships. There wasn’t one good thing that came out of that administration or her being secretary of state.
haha, Did Bush kicking the beehive in the middle east have an effect? Invasions bug locals and have consequences.
mission accomplished
America is strong, doing very well. Dont let Trump get ya down.
Not really Lola. Cratering GDP, record high levels of unemployment. Simply because of grossly inflated prices.
Remember….. Nothing crushes an economy like massively inflated, rigged, bottlenecked and fixed prices. Nothing.
My IQ is one of the highest and you all know it. Please don’t feel so stupid or insecure. It’s not your fault.
2 Corinthians walk into a bar…
lol@lola
http://goo.gl/Upjas9
It’s about time these jerk-offs got kicked to the curb.
http://www.oregonlive.com/oregon-standoff/2016/01/bundys_in_custody_one_militant.html
Booooring. I wanted video of a hellfire missile smashing that compound.
Yep. GTFO. Shoulda done so when the locals told ya to.
Trump would shut down HBB.
http://thefreethoughtproject.com/trump-calls-closing-internet-hours-suggesting-u-s-ban-muslim-immigration/
The Daddystaters will toddle in and rally to his defense… on the internet.