Bits Bucket for February 2, 2016
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Housing: the biggest avoidable mistake in life you don’t have to make, don’t do it!
Why buy it when you can rent it for half the monthly cost?
Using dumb borrowed money to buy a house is a highly leveraged financial gamble from which you are unlikely to ever recover.
Your losses may be incalculable.
no one ever makes money on housing, hence the demand. You cant win even if you have multiple properties for 30 yrs, your kids will inherit all that debt.
Correct. Houses are depreciating assets.
CalifoH20
In 1998 sold our first home (held 14 yrs) and even in a weak market, the net was approx. $80K
Then sold our luxury view home in the bubble (held for 5 years) and made a pile of $ net. Home was 1998 construction.
Paid cash for this cottage in 2012. This home is older.
We are watching our deferred maintenance expenses, and we’ll most likely make a small profit. Our accruals are $550 mo.
Housing can produce a profit. The newer the home, the better off you are.
Your generation got screwed thanks to the engineering of the market. I feel for you. It sucks. Homeownership should not be a debt prison or a casino.
I was being sarcastic. Of course people get rich off housing. Some of the wealthiest people I know did it by buying income props. I have never lost on the 3 homes I Sold
MT Pockets, you paid a 250% premium for a depreciating asset and then threw more good money after bad at it.
Has the Baltic Dry Index finally stabilized?
Dry Bulk Suffers From Poseidon’s Potent Prongs
By Aiswarya Lakshmi
Monday, February 01, 2016
It has been a grim start to 2016 for the bulkcarrier market, with the Baltic Dry Index sliding to new record lows on almost every day of the year so far, says Clarksons Research.
With a nearly constant stream of negative news continuing to emerge across each of the key dry bulk cargo sectors, it is almost as if Poseidon, the Greek god of the sea, has with his powerful trident launched a three-pronged attack.
The current depression is indeed severe. The Baltic Dry Index, a daily indicator of bulkcarrier rates, fell to its 19th consecutive record low of 317 points on 29th January.
This is far below the average of 718 points in 2015, which itself was the second lowest annual average on record, and represented a year in which bulker earnings averaged around $7,000/day, little over estimated operating costs.
Of course, difficult market conditions are nothing new. Bulker earnings have been under pressure since 2011, when more than 100m dwt of deliveries kept fleet growth in double-digits.
Whilst fleet growth eased to 2.4% in 2015, the slowest pace in 16 years, new demand-side pressures emerged, with dry bulk trade remaining flat last year.
In Greek mythology, Poseidon’s trident had the power to cause earthquakes on earth, and there has certainly been evidence of a shake up recently. But where have each of the three prongs hit, and how sharply?
…
“with dry bulk trade remaining flat last year”
Buckle up for contraction.
Baltic Dry Index Continues Freefall
February 1, 2016 by Reuters
The Baltic Dry Index is yet to record a daily gain in 2016.
Photo: Shutterstock/Volodymyr Kyrylyuk
ReutersFeb 1 (Reuters) – The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying industrial commodities, touched a new all-time low on Monday as concerns of weak global demand and vessel oversupply weighed on the sector.
The overall index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, dipped three points or 0.96 percent to 314 points.
A slowdown in the Chinese economy, which grew at its slowest pace in a quarter of a century in 2015, and a huge over-capacity in vessels has meant the index has been hitting new all-time lows for most of 2016.
…
Baltic Dry Index falls to 314, down 3 points.
in Dry Bulk Market 01/02/2016
Today, Monday, February 01 2016, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 3 points, reaching 314 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Monday, February 01 2016, when the index dropped to 314 points.
Source: Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
Doesn’t matter. None of the economic data matter.
As long as the electronic fiat money presses are in good working order, where is the problem?
TruNews
Baltic Dry Index Hits All-Time Low of 310; Rail Traffic Continues Decline
News released Tuesday reveals that the Baltic Dry Index has reached a record low of 310.
The Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793.
The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying industrial commodities, slipped to another all-time low on Tuesday on worries about vessel oversupply and slowing global demand.
The index has yet to register a single session of gains this year, tumbling around 35 percent and touching fresh lows in 20 of the 22 sessions.
A slowdown in the Chinese economy, which grew at its slowest pace in a quarter of a century in 2015, and a huge over-capacity in vessels has hit the index hard.
The Baltic Dry Index is an economic indicator issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the index provides “an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 23 shipping routes measured on a timecharter basis, the index covers Handysize,Supramax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain.
…
Baltic Dry Index falls to 310, down 4 points.
in Dry Bulk Market 02/02/2016
Today, Tuesday, February 02 2016, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 4 points, reaching 310 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Tuesday, February 02 2016, when the index dropped to 310 points.
Source: Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
Which Democrat won Iowa last night?
Suddenly there were five…
Why does the FED cater to democrats?
By raising rates during an election year when they could easily not?
.25 % is nothing. Plus if you look at the way they are trying to do it I’m not even sure rates really went up. Repo market?
Maybe, but they raised during an election year when they had plenty of cover not to. Seems to me that makes them either pro-GOP or politically neutral. Or they favor the angrier candidates of both parties.
Conspiracy!
“.25 % is nothing.”
It is quite a bit higher than 0%, due to extreme convexity at the zero bound.
because ohbahma gave credit card companies an 18 month leeway to convert tens of millions from fixed rate to variable rate cards so what would a 4% rate do?
Old Donald Trump TWEET haunts candidate after Iowa caucus LOSS
Breaking World News
“Which Democrat won Iowa last night?”
Looks like the felon trumped the angry guy.
I don’t think that is accurate. What’s more important than the numeric outcome is where the candidates are now compared to a couple of years ago. Sanders suddenly looms TOO BIG TO IGNORE.
The datacenter I work at has a few flat panel TVs in the lounge areas. They’re all fixed to CNN. Up until a week and half ago or so it seems that you would NEVER hear the S word. Now all of a sudden you hear them mention Sanders. Thankfully not as much as you hear about him on Reddit, though.
If your TeeVee is fixed to CNN, you won’t just be uninformed, you’ll be misinformed. Try “Democracy Now” or other non-corporate media if you want real news instead of DNC talking points and Oligopoly propaganda.
Democracy Now
I used to like Amy Goodman. Then I found out that she donated more than 1 mil for Obama in 2012 election.
2012? Are you freaking kidding me?
I still like Amy Goodman. I also like Rachael Maddow.
Like her as what? Not exactly a pretty lass, and she’s as big of a schill as you’ll find anywhere on TV.
They’re both intelligent, thoughtful, and independent thinkers who do not mince words when it comes to speaking truth to power or calling out political hypocrisy. I may not agree with them on all issues, but it’s nice to see media figures who are worthy of respect.
I’ll have to grit my teeth and watch Maddow… Never been able to stand her mannerisms long enough to see what she’s about.
Turn off Maddow. Turn off Limbaugh. Turn off Olberman (although that may have been done for us). Turn off O’Reilly.
Make up your own mind.
I know you’ll say that you do (make up your own mind), but most people I know who listen to the talking heads only listen to one side (or listen to the other side with a closed mind).
I don’t listen to the talking heads, ever.
“I don’t think that is accurate.”
Agreed, the spread between ‘em was razor thin. I couldn’t resist the word-play, “trumped.”
“trumped”
That word is getting plenty of play today.
Anyone know the % of popular vote for Sanders vs Clinton?
Trumped - to be schlonged by a greasy preacher.
Sounds right up your alley Lola.
Sanders won, IMO.
Yes, Sanders and Rubio were clearly the real victors.
The most important narrative to result from Iowa is Rubio’s strong third place finish, and his anointment as the establishment GOP candidate.
Expect endorsements from neocon William Kristol and his merry band of blood-soaked armchair generals, and an avalanche of cash (as I have been correctly predicting for months now on HBB) from Sheldon Adelson.
Neocons gonna neocon (national debt is now $20 trillion, BTW).
No “smaller government” or “less regulations” or “lower taxes” happening here.
“Rubio’s strong third place finish”
Yep. Totally agree with your assessment. I dunno how we’re gonna get rid of the neocon filth.
Poor Barbara… she doesn’t realize the plantation has changed hands.
Marco will protect us from ISIS with his Christmas gun.
Marco’s the one, and short of Bush, that’s about as depressing as it gets. No way Cruz will ever make it to the nom, he has a citizenship problem that would dog him all through the campaign.
They were saying that Trump brought the record crowds in for Rubio. Funny if true.
No, what’s not so funny but probably true is that Microsoft, which supports Rubio, counted the votes.
I can understand Cruz winning Iowa over Trump, but what doesn’t square is Rubio’s “surge” in that state. Doesn’t make sense.
As they say, it’s not the vote that counts, but who counts the votes.
Anyway, from what I see in Trump’s Twitter feed, my guess is that Trump will pull out if he doesn’t make it in New Hampshire. Here’s a quote:
“I don’t believe I have been given any credit by the voters for self-funding my campaign, the only one. I will keep doing, but not worth it!”
Kind of a crappy statement to make and sounds a little sour grapey to me.
Especially since he’s getting donations… The poor little rich boy.
And then gives them back, which I guess is better than nobly pissing them down the drain like St. Ron Paul.
So you idolize the jackass over the libertarian?
“jackass”
It’s animal cruelty to suggest that jackass behavior resembles Trump’s.
William Kristol’s Weekly Standard salivates at the prospect of thousands and thousands of American military coming back from a ground war in Iran and Iraq and Syria with their legs blown off by IED’s or better yet, in flag draped coffins that make for good photo ops:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/rubio-makes-it-a-three-man-race/article/2000870
“Don’t vote for me if you’re tired of war” — Lindsey Graham, Senator and soon to be Secretary of Defense
Another Rubio narrative from neocon Christian Zionist website World Net Daily:
http://mobile.wnd.com/2016/02/rubio-set-to-score-big-tea-party-backing/?cat_orig=politics
Big Tea Party backing? This must be the part of the narrative where the government gets shrinked to the size you can drown it in the bathtub, by launching multi-trillion dollar, multi-front ground wars in the Middle East, because Rapture.
Washington Times (published by Unification Church i.e. the Moonies) links this article fourth from the top now. The Iowa narrative has passed, so now it’s time to rally the base before New Hampshire, pimping the fear and promoting neocon:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/feb/1/isis-al-qaeda-battle-for-jihadi-supremacy-fuels-fe/
Neocons gonna neocon. And if you prefer your neocon in a pantsuit, remember that the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children was “worth it.”
Breitbart abandons all pretense of libertarianism, provides a neocon narrative on Rubio, Sheldon Adelson pours himself and Benjamin Netanyahu another glass of champagne, puts his feet up and rewinds his favorite video clip of Rachel Corrie getting run over by an IDF bulldozer, fondles some coins in his pockets and enthusiastically drools:
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/02/why-marco-rubio-is-iowas-big-winner/
American taxpayers, did you vote for a foreign policy based on a Rapture belief system? All these neocon wars are gonna be really, really expensive.
We interrupt your regularly scheduled neocon with a pigmen money narrative:
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/267804-lobbyist-cash-flows-to-clinton-rubio
Another Super-PAC pigmen money narrative:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/marco-rubio-post-iowa-ad-218609
“Which Democrat won Iowa last night?”
What difference – at this point, what difference does it make if it was heads or tails?
Hillary Clinton Has The Most Statistically Improbable Coin-Toss Luck Ever
Feb. 2, 2016 4:45am Leigh Munsil
DES MOINES, Iowa — One of the most bizarre details to emerge from Monday’s Iowa caucuses was that in six Democratic counties, the ownership of six delegates was decided by a coin flip.
A single delegate remained unassigned at the end of caucusing in two precincts in Des Moines, one precinct in Ames, one in Newton, one in West Branch and one in Davenport, The Des Moines Register reported.
In all six instances, the coin toss was won by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
There may have been more coin tosses, but those are the ones we know about for now.
Now, get ready to do some math.
In a single coin toss, the probability of calling the toss correctly is 50 percent, or one in two. Heads or tails.
But the probably of winning every flip out of six flips is one in 64, or 1.56 percent.
Look at the way Hillary turned a $1000 investment into $100K on the advice of one of her “friends” back in the ’90s. No rigging or manipulation there.
They rigged or manipulated the commodities market?
Lest We Forget – Hillary’s $100K Cattle Scam
From Barbara Olson’s tremendous book, “Hell To Pay,” pp 138-144:
CATTLE QUEEN OF ARKANSAS
The deal was arranged in the following way. All Hillary had to do was put $1,000 of her own money into a block of cattle futures at a time when her husband, then the attorney general, had a thirty point lead for the governorship. How did Hillary make out?
From her initial investment of $1,000, she came away with $99,537. Among the community of experts, there is general agreement that between 75 percent and 90 percent of commodity players lose. And no one turns $1,000 into $100,000. “The average retail customer has about as much chance of that kind of success as I have of driving to Hawaii,” one Chicago-based investment advisor noted.41
Unless you believe in good fairies, luck had nothing to do with it. It is pretty obvious that Hillary had something better than luck. She had well-placed friends who wanted her to have $100,000. The likelihood of such a return on such an investment was close to lottery odds, twenty-four chances in a million.44 This was in a decade in which no speculator made more than $400 profit a day with one contract of cattle futures. Yet Hillary managed to make $5,300 a day. Such a return would have required her holding thirteen contracts, involving 232 tons of beef with a value of $280,000.
The New York Post explained, “There is no way that the commodity exchange or a broker would permit a novice speculator to control $280,000 worth of cattle with a skimpy investment of $1,000. Not, that is, unless a friend, guardian or partner guaranteed her investment.”45
It seems unlikely that Hillary could have been unaware of the magnitude of this straddle or that her wins were at the expense of others. (Blair himself was a designated loser, losing millions on the cattle deals.) Many commodities traders suspected Hillary of allocated trading—an illegal procedure in which a broker buys block trades, waits for the win, then allocates it to favored customers after the fact. Just a few months after Hillary’s “lucky” day in commodities trading, Refco–specifically Hillary’s broker Red Bone–was disciplined by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Board for “serious and repeated violations of record-keeping functions, order-entry procedures, margin requirements and hedge procedures.”
One person who has done well during the Clinton years is the man who provided the nexus between Red Bone, Jim Blair, and Bill Clinton. That man is Don Tyson. During the Clinton-era, Tyson’s company benefited from millions of dollars in state loans, tax breaks, and the relaxation of environmental regulations. He received $8 million in tax concessions for plant and workforce concessions, as well as $900,000 in state grant monies to build roads and upgrade sites for a $40 million processing plant in Pine Bluff.46 What was especially extraordinary was the kid glove treatment Tyson received from a governor who at least affected a tough and uncompromising stance on protecting the environment.
sweetness-light.com/archive/barbara-olson-on-hillarys-cattle-futures - 36k -
See, they didn’t rig or manipulate the market. They just got one of the golden deals reserved for the rich and well-connected.
Like Bush and his loan and baseball team. weeeeeee, money for nothing and the drugs for free.
Will central bankers be able to save global stock markets from drowning in a crushing wave of financial contagion?
The South China Morning Post
China stocks jump to strong close after central bank pours in cash
Business seen thinning out as Lunar New Year approaches next week
Jessie Lau and Laura He
PUBLISHED : Tuesday, 02 February, 2016, 9:21am
UPDATED : Tuesday, 02 February, 2016, 5:35pm
An investor looks at an electronic board showing stock information at a brokerage house in Huaibei, Anhui province.
Photo: Reuters
China’s equity markets closed sharply higher on Tuesday after the People’s Bank of China poured in 1.52 trillion yuan into the system from last month, aiming to ease a seasonal cash squeeze ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays.
The Shanghai Composite index jumped 2.26 per cent or 60.72 points to settle at 2,749.57, while the CSI 300 index for large cap stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose 2.08 per cent or 60.28 points to close at 2,961.33.
The Shenzhen Composite index also gained 3.42 per cent or 57.18 points to 1,729.09, while the Nasdaq-style ChiNext index increased 4.14 per cent or 82.59 points to 2,075.29.
Hong Kong stocks however closed lower, with the session dragged down by a slide in the energy sector after oil shares plunged overnight in overseas markets.
The Hang Seng Index bucked closed 0.76 per cent or 148.66 points weaker at 19,446.84, while the H-share index dropped 1.06 per cent or 86.02 points to finish at 8,058.83.
Markets got a strong boost from the PBOC’s latest move on Tuesday to inject 100 billion yuan into money markets via reverse repurchase agreements. Last month, the central bank pumped in more than 1.5 trillion yuan of liquidity into banks via Standing Lending Facilities (SLF), Medium-term Lending Facilities (MLF), and Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL).
“Ahead of the Lunar New Year, the Chinese government wants to put more money into the market. If they don’t inject more money, they will push up the overnight (interest) rate,” said Louis Tse Ming-kwong, director of VC Brokerage, adding the markets fell on Monday because short term investors used the release of slightly worse than expected purchasing managers’ index data as an “excuse” to sell and take money off the table.
…
Top News
Mon Feb 1, 2016 | 3:18 PM EST
Global stocks retreat after grim China data, oil plummets
Stocks cautious after rocky January
By David Gaffen
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Global markets got February off to a cautious start on Monday following a rocky January, with stocks and oil falling in the wake of weak manufacturing reports around the world.
U.S. and European stocks fell. Disappointing euro zone manufacturing data dovetailed with the fastest contraction in China’s giant factory sector in over three years, and U.S. manufacturing sentiment remained weak.
Those surveys showed the new year began much as the old one ended, with too much capacity chasing too little demand. The U.S. Institute for Supply Management showed a bit of stabilization, but its sentiment survey was still below 50, the demarcation line for expansion versus contraction.
“The contraction in manufacturing is ongoing but no longer getting worse,” said Steve Blitz, chief economist at ITG Investment Research in New York.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.25 percent to 16,425.55, the S&P 500 lost 0.21 percent to 1,936.26 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.07 percent to 4,610.58.
Oil prices, the other major factor influencing markets this year, also fell. U.S. crude was down more than 6 percent to $31.50, resuming a downtrend that had been interrupted recently on hopes for production cuts. Brent dipped as well, falling 5.3 percent to $34.07 a barrel.
…
shorts will be crushed by yellen! BTFD
It is not ethical if stocks go down and democrats lose.
Roughly every 7.5 years we have a financial crash, which is the most efficient means for the Wall Street-Federal Reserve looting syndicate to asset-strip the sheeple. So we’re about due for one any day now.
“Will central bankers be able to save global stock markets from drowning in a crushing wave of financial contagion?”
Only they can do so. Only they can save the global financial system.
You should be eternally grateful for their presence and you should pray daily for them, pray daily for their continued health and well being.
Dear Gawd,
Please inspire the global central banking cartel to electronically print enough money to flood the entire world with liquidity, in order to wash my collapsed stock portfolio off the bottom of the sea.
God says you should save yourself and buy all the GRLD that you can.
Tracing Oil’s Hypnosis of Stocks From Wealth Funds to Junk
Dani Burger and Oliver Renick
January 31, 2016 — 11:00 PM CST
Updated on February 1, 2016 — 8:59 AM CST
Even casual observers know oil is exerting uncommon influence on stocks. What’s less clear is how the energy market has come to dominate sentiment in industries with seemingly no connection to crude prices.
Understanding why oil is casting such a spell is more than an academic inquiry. The reason matters, given how big the moves have been. Almost $1.6 trillion has been erased from U.S. stocks in 2016. If oil is contributing, it’d be nice to know why.
Here are four theories on what’s underpinning the connection. They range from a straight economic signal to speculation oil’s plunge threatens to lay low everything up to and including the financial system. None is authoritative — it can’t be — and it’s possible that something else entirely is only making it seem like oil and stocks are moving in lockstep. But these are the hypotheses most often cited by equity investors this week.
…
Crude prices drop on fading hopes for production cuts
Published: Feb 2, 2016 6:01 a.m. ET
By JENNY W. HSU
Reuters
Crude prices were down Tuesday as hopes for production cuts from major producers faded and investors focused back in on the weak fundamental factors underpinning the oil markets.
The global crude benchmark Brent (LCOJ6, -3.77%) fell $1.23, or 3.6%, to $33.01 a barrel for April loading while its U.S. counterpart West Texas Intermediate (CLH6, -2.66%) was down $1.07, or 3.4%, at $30.54 for March deliveries on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The prospect of Russia agreeing a deal with major producers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is considered unlikely by most market observers, with several banks and think tanks expressing doubts that it will happen.
…
BULLETIN Exxon Mobil’s profit tumbles, but beats expectations
Forecasts grow bleaker: S&P will end this year at 2,050, Credit Suisse’s strategist says
Published: Feb 2, 2016 6:36 a.m. ET
Another bank trims its 2016 year-end S&P 500 target
Who will be next to throw in the towel?
By VICTOR REKLAITIS
MARKETS WRITER
Another Wall Street strategist has thrown in the towel with his year-end prediction for U.S. stocks.
The S&P 500 (SPX, -0.04%) will finish the year at 2,050, Credit Suisse’s Andrew Garthwaite said in a note dated Tuesday, after previously forecasting the benchmark would close out 2016 at 2,150.
Why get more bearish? Garthwaite and his team said their reasons for cutting their target include expectations that earnings growth will end up roughly flat in 2016. Plus, the equity risk premium stands at fair value, and the macroeconomic environment has become trickier. (The equity risk premium, or ERP, generally refers to the greater return that stocks promise over a risk-free rate, such as the return from Treasurys.)
Garthwaite & Co. argue the macro picture looks “more complicated” because of the latest signals from China and the Federal Reserve.
“China’s property data, the loan-to-deposit ratio and control of FX reserves have all been worse than we had expected, increasing the risk of a hard landing,” they said in the note. And the Fed “appears to be unusually focused on lagging indicators of activity.”
…
Marketwatch dot com
Recession risks warn of ‘severe’ drop in the stock market
By Tomi Kilgore
Published: Feb 2, 2016 1:08 p.m. ET
Most S&P 500 stocks could fall 50% or more if a ‘worst-case’ recession unfolds
Romina Amato/Red Bull via Getty Images
Another brokerage firm has used the “R” word on Tuesday, warning investors to wake up to the idea that rising risks of a recession could send the stock market over a steep cliff.
Based on current valuations, the prices of most stocks don’t appear to have factored in a recession scenario, “hence the downside should we see a recession could be rather severe,” RBC Capital Markets’ global equity team wrote in a research note to clients.
Applying a stress test to their coverage universe, using worst-case, price-to-earnings valuations seen during the 2008-to-2009 recession, RBC analysts said they believe the shares of most companies could still fall another 50% or more from current levels.
The concern for RBC analysts stems from the recently volatility in the stock market, caused by macro weakness, softness in China and commodity market challenges.
On Monday, Deutsche Bank strategist David Bianco said the second-half of 2015 was “clearly a profit recession” for S&P 500 companies, and suggested it probably won’t be until the second half of this year that “healthy” growth returns.
…
Must suck to be stuck in an underwater portfolio, facing the prospect of far worse losses to come if you don’t cut and run presently.
Donald Trump is ‘red-hot favorite’ to win in Iowa, New Hampshire, bookies say
By MarketWatch
Published: Jan 31, 2016 1:47 p.m. ET
That’s according to British bookmaker William Hill
Getty Images
Presidential candidate Donald Trump’s “bandwagon shows little sign of a slowdown,” says William Hill’s Graham Sharpe.
British bookies see a banner month ahead for Donald Trump.
The Republican presidential candidate is the “red-hot favorite” to win the Iowa Caucuses (Feb. 1) and the New Hampshire primary (Feb. 9), says Graham Sharpe, spokesman for William Hill PLC, a leading British bookmaker. William Hill has Trump as the 1-2 favorite in Iowa and the 1-4 favorite in New Hampshire.
“The Trump bandwagon shows little sign of a slowdown,” says Sharpe.
…
The bookies know how to make money off the gullible, just like Donald.
One of the problems when you become successful is that jealousy and envy inevitably follow. There are people I categorize them as life’s losers who get their sense of accomplishment and achievement from trying to stop others. As far as I’m concerned, if they had any real ability, they wouldn’t be fighting me, they’d be doing something constructive themselves.
Rick Santorum won in 2012.
Placing in second is really no different than losing.
For Trump it’s got to sting a bit….but then again it may not. Let’s see how he reacts next few days.
Just saw it somewhere - close to 2/3rd of the IA republican caucus goers were born again evangelicals. Jesus, I mean if you are not running to be the Pastor of the USA, you have no chance with that crowd.
I’m still waiting for someone here to tell me the part of the Bible where Jesus talked about the Rapture.
“For Trump it’s got to sting a bit”
Nah. He was clearly in full-blown denial last night. Sounded as giddy as Rubio about his loss.
Are you one of life’s losers Trump is referring to?
No, but you clearly are, with more losses and denial to come after last night’s Trump dump.
Most of the GOP field is un-electable in the General. Trump with all of his faults has been a breath of fresh air in a contest that has historically been putting up the same lineup of scripted clowns.
Does he mirror my politics? No, but he is clear on open borders and the rise of political Islam. He has also stated he supports the second amendment and would like to remove ourselves from protecting countries that give us absolutely no return. Meaning he would have our country’s best interest at heart…sounds kind of refreshing.
Good enough for me at this point in history. If he’s another wolf in sheep’s clothing, I guess we’re still effed…I’m willing to roll the dice.
If he’s another wolf in sheep’s clothing.
Deep down, you have to accept he is just that or he will become one of them. No one person can’t change the deep corruption aka Amerikka.
Time for a Hail Mary?
Bernie or Rand. The rest are slime.
BailoutBarney is pro-debt slavery.
would like to remove ourselves from protecting countries that give us absolutely no return.
What did he say to that effect?
I recall him saying we get nothing from the countries we protect like Korea, Saudi Arabia, NATO countries, etc.
He has also said the four trillion dollars spent on foreign wars and aid, would have been better spent on our infrastructure.
I should not leave out his statements on our nineteen trillion dollar debt and the fact that we can not afford to take in more migrants.
Again, you have to take all of this with a grain of salt at this point.
I’ve never heard him say anything about not supporting Israel, he wants to bomb the sh!t out of ISIS, and he opposes the peace deal with Iran. He seems like a neocon regarding the Middle East, except he kicks it up a notch by saying we’ll somehow seize their oil to pay for it all.
I’ve heard that one before…
Well said, Red Pill.
Trump will win in NH and suddenly he will be the unstoppable one again.
Maybe it’s just Iowa, but I don’t get the affinity for Cruz. At. All. To me, Paul, Christie (aside from his drumbeat for war), and maybe Kasich are the most relateable. Cruz is just smarmy.
When the Sky Wizard is on your side, nothing else matters. Religion is designed to exploit the gullible and stupid, and it works very well.
Cruz reminds me of a TV Minister. I cannot stand that man, and the fact he stood behind Kim Davis when she refused same sex marriage licenses, is something that really concerns me.
With all Trump’s faults, he at least addresses real issues, and doesn’t focus on the fear of god, bibles and bullets.
On the other side, Hillary gives me a technicolor yawn. Bill is at least likable. X-Pres=1st dude… I wonder how we’d fare internationally? Would China be penning there next trade deal to screw us?
Trump talks tough, but it’s election time.
The Central Scrutinizer
Yep. Although they are protected by the Constitution as Atheist are. You never hear from Atheists recruiting because they believe in the freedom thing in the Constitution. I believe Atheists are more tolerable.
Hillary supporters would love for it to be Cruz. Canadian problem, easily paintable as far right wacko. Plain smarmy. She’d destroy him.
“I believe Atheists are more tolerable”
Clearly you’ve never been on Reddit.
when you become successful ??
Trump became successful on day one in the maternity ward at the hospital…
From your empty skull directly to the Whitehouse, Donald Trump lives, rent-free.
Your candidate lost. Deal with it!
Lost what, exactly? Trump will win in NH and suddenly he will be the unstoppable one again.
Whose candidate?
“Trump will win in NH and suddenly he will be the unstoppable one again.”
How many times has Albuquerque Dan changed his screen name by now? I’ve lost track.
He’ll lose, declare the contest unfair, and quit.
Then the Trumplings will follow the greasy preacher like he’s Moses.
They all live in your empty skull.
Do the trumple shuffle for us, fatty.
All of them Iola.
John Cleese: Political Correctness Will Lead To An Orwellian Nightmare
“The very essence of his trade — comedy — is criticism”
http://www.infowars.com/john-cleese-political-correctness-will-lead-to-an-orwellian-nightmare/
So now he’s criticizing the monster he helped create, because it’s biting him in the keister and he can’t go tell jokes on American college campuses because now he isn’t PC enough. Something about closing the barn door after the cow got out comes to mind.
How did John Cleese help create political correctness?
He is PC, he even admits to being PC in the video.
Used to be PC was called ‘manners’ and was seen as a positive trait. Now jackassery is all in vogue.
Bad Grandpa all the way!
Used to be PC was called ‘manners’ and was seen as a positive trait.
That’s the thing. PC is never defined by the people who rail against it, so it’s never exactly clear what they’re complaining about.
The same sort of people started using the word “socialism” a lot in the summer of 2008. In that case, the word has a specific meaning, but the people who fell in love with it didn’t know what that meaning is.
Political correctness is telling lies rather than the truth so as not to offend some group. The truth is correct. The lie is “politically correct,” meaning it is a weasel spin of the truth to not offend a constituency, usually a favored minority or pretend minority. How hard is that to understand Milky?
3 minutes research on the Internet could tell you this.
How hard is that to understand Milky?
I don’t know what the hell you’re talking about. Look at what I wrote. I stated that the people who use the term don’t have a definition for it. Many examples of the use of the term don’t conform to your definition.
And speaking internet research, Google has this:
the avoidance, often considered as taken to extremes, of forms of expression or action that are perceived to exclude, marginalize, or insult groups of people who are socially disadvantaged or discriminated against.
There’s nothing specifically about telling lies. So mu point stands. However, your point of view is interesting, that bigotry represents truth, justice and the American Way.
MilkyMoron proves my point, bigot is the first response of politically correct bullies. And this coming from the same dude that a couple of weeks ago was defending antisemites.
Awesome post. And that’s the way it goes. When the revolution come, the useful idiots always get taken out and shot.
Very true. Seinfeld came out a while ago saying the same thing.
He may just be mimicking Jerry Seinfeld. It sounds unlikely that American college kids are interested in a John Cleese performance in the year 2016.
Yeah, but you can’t be truly funny unless you offend, that’s just the way it is. Being offensive is brave, bold and funny sometimes…relax.
Well, maybe you can’t be funny without being offensive. Plenty of other comedians have been able to do it.
Brian Regan is hilarious without using foul language, but some of his material may be offensive. What’s the problem? Lighten up Francis. Laughter is great medicine and is good for the soul…so is Metal…example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SKELDVRJDY
Who cares what John Cleese thinks?
More than care what you ‘think’
That’s what you think.
I don’t ‘think’ so, bub!
Hong Kong housing bubble imploding.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-01/hong-kong-housing-bubble-suffers-spectacular-collapse-sales-plunge-most-record-price
“Punishment interest” (NIRP) next up from Yellen.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/02/02/negative-interest-rates-already-in-feds-official-scenario/
Retail apocalypse 2016.
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/retail-apocalypse-2016-brings-empty-shelves-and-store-closings-all-across-america
local kmart is closing its doors finally.
Sears sold its real estate to a spinoff company. Have long will it take them to burn all that cash to executives? Shareholders will be left with nothing as usual.
What value does sears really have other than real estate?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffett-takes-8-stake-in-sears-spinoff-seritage-2015-12-10-111032359
shld is now a 17 dollar stock. didnt this trade at 200 at one time?
srg is a REIT, that is close to 40 / share.
“local kmart is closing its doors finally.”
Nixon was grooming China back when the floors were still polished at Kmart. Walmart had the benefit of timing… low cost Chinese products, point of sale bar codes and cash registers and networked relational databases that made it much easier to manage growth and theft.
Bare shelves? I don’t shop a whole lot, but when I do I see plenty of well stocked shelves everywhere I go, even when I set foot in the local Kmart, which I try to avoid.
“Fighting terrorism” is a great pretext for the war on cash (to ensure total awareness and taxation of all financial transactions), and ensure total control of the population.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/12135785/500-bills-being-used-by-terrorists-EU-warns.html
Seems like some massive profit taking in oil again today. Seems like the oil market is a pretty big casino. People keep trying to guess a bottom and then we get a little short covering.
I was going to short HES yesterday but didn’t pull the trigger. Doh!
Shorting is good when the stock starts falling off its peak after a long run. It is wimpy to short it when it is near its five year low.
It seems the fix is in for open borders and unfettered immigration.
I’ve watched Faux News morph over the last couple of years…the globalists are cradling the peaches of just about everyone now.
Would be nice to have a moratorium on all non-essential immigration until we can absorb and assimilate the 40+ million already here.
I’ve often asked, “How does bringing in millions of the worlds poor from relatively primitive cultures help the middle class and the general welfare of most Americans?”
Would be nice to have a moratorium on all non-essential immigration until we can absorb and assimilate the 40+ million already here.
Every four years, ‘Muricans vote overwhelmingly for open-borders candidates like Obama, McCain, and Romney. That in effect is a national referendum on immigration. In 2016, open-borders advocates Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio appear to be leading the pack, so the Oligopoly has a public mandate to bring in millions more immigrants as part of our “fundamental transformation.”
Red Pill gets it.
“Nations are not ruined by one act of violence, but gradually and in an almost imperceptible manner by the depreciation of their circulating currency, through excessive quantity.”
–Nicholas Copernicus 1525
“Anyone who says the American economy is in decline is peddling fiction.”
President Barak Obama, 2016 SOTU address.
corp profits are at all time highs. fact
Crypto currency my friends. Vacate the banks.
The real losers are the voters. Trump is a looser.
Vacate the vote.
Taqiyya: tactical deceit for the purposes of spreading Islam.
Cowardice: the disproportionate fear of a negligible threat.
+1
Here are a few more:
• Kitman: deceit by omission.
• Tawriya: deceit by ambiguity.
• Taysir: deceit through facilitation (not having to observe all the tenets of Sharia).
• Darura: deceit through necessity (to engage in something “Haram” or forbidden).
• Muruna: the temporary suspension of Sharia in order that Muslim immigrants appear “moderate.”
Hey fellas! I think we got ourselves a mooslem here!
Listening to Trump’s tough talk about making America great again makes his cowardly supporters less afraid of their own shadows.
Where do you get the idea that Trump supporters are cowards?
It’s clear that Trump’s message is aimed at fearful people in need of protection.
Real journalists:
“In response to “toxic” discussion on immigration and Islam, the British newspaper the Guardian has decided to close down comments on those topics. Other topics where commentary will be blocked include race, gender and Israel”
http://www.infowars.com/corporate-media-closes-down-toxic-comments-on-migration-islam-gender-and-race/
Sounds like the proles were displaying an inconvenient tendency toward free thinking that disrupted the Oligopoly-approved Narrative.
More likely the shrieking of the loons was making the paper look bad.
Good morning boyz and girlz….
This….
Great explanation from an oil field hand on FSA protests…..
3 mins long….
http://wwwtheworldandeverythinginit.blogspot.com/2016/02/watch-oil-industry-worker-speaks-his.html
BP….
This…..
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-02/bp-profit-falls-91-missing-estimates-as-oil-slump-deepens
Resulting in this….
http://www.cbs58.com/story/31117080/bp-to-cut-7000-jobs-after-posting-huge-loss
Oof…
Ashton Kutcher’s support for Bitcoin as a defense against a Trump or Sanders presidency goes viral.
http://www.coinfox.info/news/4648-kutcher-s-support-for-bitcoin-gains-popularity
Honestly you have more to worry with Hillary, Cruz or Rubio then Sanders or Trump.
https://pjmedia.com/victordavishanson/dark-ages-california/?singlepage=true
Huge numbers, illegality, and the far greater presence of indigenous peoples meant there were more immigrants, more who were poorer and more who did not speak English or even Spanish as their native language—at a time when the salad bowl and hyphenation replaced the melting pot. The result is that there are large areas of Central California that resemble life in rural Mexico. Within a radius of five miles I can go to stores and restaurants where English is rarely spoken and there is no racial or cultural diversity—a far cry from Jeb Bush’s notion of an “act of love” landscape.
With unemployment at 10% or more in the interior of the state, with the public schools near the bottom in the nation, and with generous entitlements, it is no accident that one in six in the nation who receive public assistance now live in California, where about a fifth of the population lives below the poverty line.
As I predicted, Yellen the Felon laying the groundwork to ramp up the Fed’s War on Savers by introducing NIRP in a desperate attempt to force the sheeple into Wall Street’s rigged casino for a final fleecing before Da Boyz exit the pump & dump and leave “retail investors” holding the bag.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-02/rates-less-than-zero-is-bank-stress-fed-wants-to-test-in-2016
Still rockin my 1% savings account.
Commemoratives
Authorized by Congress, commemorative coins celebrate and honor American people, places, events, and institutions. Each coin is crafted to be rich in symbolic history. They represent not only an investment in maintaining our American Past, but also in ensuring our Future.
Hillary Clinton 2016 Uncirculated Two Headed Silver Dollar
Philadelphia (P)
$44.95
——————————————————————————
Hillary Clinton Has The Most Statistically Improbable Coin-Toss Luck Ever
Feb. 2, 2016 4:45am Leigh Munsil
DES MOINES, Iowa — One of the most bizarre details to emerge from Monday’s Iowa caucuses was that in six Democratic counties, the ownership of six delegates was decided by a coin flip.
In all six instances, the coin toss was won by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
In a single coin toss, the probability of calling the toss correctly is 50 percent, or one in two. Heads or tails.
But the probably of winning every flip out of six flips is one in 64, or 1.56 percent
The World Health Organization anticipates that the Zika virus will spread to all but two countries in South, Central and North America.
bummer
How the mighty are fallen. Oligopoly anointed one Jeb isn’t feeling the love no matter how much his .1% patrons lavish on his campaign. While Democrat voters are embracing the crony capitalist status quo with their support for Hillary, the more intelligent and moral GOP base is roundly repudiating same.
http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/jeb-bushs-sad-campaign-spent-almost-3-000-per-vote-in-crushing-iowa-loss-8221034
Jeb just looks like a comedian lampooning a politician… Except for the eyes, where you can see how frustrated he is that people keep laughing at him.
Clinton voter fraud in Polk County, Iowa Caucus - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNz-dtnQ1Ys - 145k - Cached - Similar pages
13 hours ago
Video: Clinton Voter Fraud In Action?
Hillary wins with six coin tosses and dodgy hand counts
Steve Watson | Infowars.com - February 2, 2016
The footage is taken from precinct #43 in Des Moines, Iowa, where supporters of Clinton and Sanders gathered to determine the delegate count for the candidates.
The description of the video, posted on the C-SPAN website, claims “Caucus chair and Clinton precinct captain do not conduct actual count of Clinton supporters and deliberately mislead caucus”.
Reports suggest that Sanders was winning during an initial vote, but when a recount was called, Clinton gained the lead.
One person who was at the event at Roosevelt High School took to Reddit to explain:
So basically in the caucus they have to hand count everyone depending on what side they’re sitting on. Well when it came time to do the second count the numbers were off. The first vote breakdown was like this:
FIRST VOTE: 215 Sanders 210 Clinton 26 O’Malley 8 Undecided 459 TOTAL
And this is the SECOND Vote: 232 Clinton 224 Sanders 456 Total
So somehow they lost 3 people but Clinton’s vote went up by 14.
So basically what had happened was Hillary’s team didn’t take the time to do a full recount instead she just added the new people who joined the second vote. Which clearly wasn’t an accurate count.
The footage appears to verify this with the Clinton camp admitting they did not do a second full count and that “they just added the (new) people”.
“Does that add up right?” one of the organiser is heard asking the caucus chair, who replies “I don’t think so.”
Nevertheless, a challenge by Sanders supporters for a third count was rejected and Clinton was handed a victory.
“Clinton’s vote went up by 14″
Math is pretty tough, especially when you are writing an article about not being able to add.
Cruz would make abortion illegal. Can u imagine all the prisoners we would have to house at $50k + a yr in 18 yrs? Sure we could used them to fight the Iranian War he starts, but….
Zika virus will make them pinheads, and lead in the water will make them violent. Perfect cannon fodder.
Perfect voters, too. They’ll fit right in.
Here comes NIRP. BOHICA, savers.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-02/negative-interest-rates-already-fed’s-official-scenario
Buying a house is overrated.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-one-economist-says-buying-a-home-is-overrated-2016-02-02
Most people rent from the bank.
That’s the power of “move-up” marketing from the sleazy REIC.
Worthless housing…. worthless worthless housing. Housing is worth less and less with each passing day.
The increase in price due to monetary inflation more than offsets depreciation.
How is being in cash for 7 years working for you?
And not a buyer in sight.
Remember Poet…. I can ask $50k for my 10 year old Chevy pickup but where is the buyer at that price?
So it is with all depreciating assets like houses.
US Housing Demand Collapses To 20 Year Low
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-yX5B5Hn95bQ/VYC3Wr6ihBI/AAAAAAAAj7I/alOslZa-cK8/s1600/MBAJune172015.PNG
The coins in his half-full piggy bank weigh as much as they ever did.
Living rent free in your empty skull has never been more lucrative for us.
Look how you perk up when somebody finally pays a little attention to you.
Pull yourself up out of that gutter and get ahold of yourself and remember Lola…..
Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels.
Update: Crude Oil Craters; Blows Hole Through $30 Floor
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic
Don’t panic - it’s all good……
But …..
Market off 300 today on the Dow and oil drop below 30/bbl. and now this on otraumacare.
But it’s all good, right…..right??!
http://www.courant.com/business/connecticut-insurance/hc-aetna-earnings-20160201-story.html
Still waiting for the solution to high health care insurance.
We all know it it tort reform.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/01/owners-cautiously-taking-cash-out-of-homes.html
Synopsis: Despite “homeowners” starting to pull out equity again, they are not pulling out as much as they could, fear remains for both lenders and borrowers.
The last line of Olick’s video–”savings rate rising”.
The savings rate is 5.5%…still anemic as far as I’m concerned.
How much is savings, and how much is paying down impossible debt?
Your own words beg the question: Are people really “saving” or are they just not borrowing?
I’ve seen several articles on this the past few days. Are they actually seeing checking/savings/mm account balances rise? None of the articles seems to say that.
Jeb Bush’s oligarch bankrollers aren’t getting much of a return on their “investment.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3428680/Jeb-Bush-spent-2-800-vote-came-SIXTH.html
Am I wrong or are we in a recession given all this bad sucking sound news of late?
You are wrong.
http://econbrowser.com/archives/2016/01/the-u-s-is-not-in-a-recession
seems like sh@t really has to hit the fan for anyone to declare a recession anymore.
All we have is increased asset prices again.
Which simply drives the economy deeper in recession.
*THINK* Poet.
we will be in a full blown depression before anyone will admit there is a problem.
Falling prices to dramatically lower levels is what we need Poet. And that’s what we’re getting. Falling prices.
“we will be in a full blown depression before anyone will admit there is a problem.”
Yep… terrible but so true.
Indeed we are. 1% GDP growth is a recession by definition.
Which central banker is on deck?
Why did Reagan sell weapon of mass destruction to the Muslims in Iran? Yet, the new GOP honors reagan?
True, but another question is why “peace loving” Jimmy Carter, along with Zbignew Brezinski, started arming and funding Al Quaeda in 1979 to counteract Russia in Afghanistan. The genesis of 9/11 was done by Carter and his henchmen.
We can go back farther then that.
The first of the Crusades began in 1095, when armies of Christians from Western Europe responded to Pope Urban II’s plea to go to war against Muslim forces in the Holy Land.
Radical Jihadis are a very tolerant people.
There are eight major central banks within the world economy today:
US Federal Reserve Bank (USD)
European Central Bank (EUR)
Bank of England (GBP)
Bank of Japan (JPY)
Swiss National Bank (CHF)
Bank of Canada (CAD)
Reserve Bank of Australia (AUD)
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (NZD)
“Stocks, Bond Yields Plunge As Bank Risk Soars”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-02/oilpocalypse-wow-stocks-bond-yields-plunge-bank-risk-soars
lol@lola
http://goo.gl/xJaNPI
It’s Not About The Nail - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4EDhdAHrOg - 173k -
Bernie Sanders promises to fight to the convention
Whatever the result of the Iowa caucuses Monday evening, Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders promised he won’t be leaving the race.
“We are in this for the long haul,” Sanders told CBS News in an interview Monday before the caucuses began. “We’re going to be there fighting until the day of the convention. There are a lot of states out there and we now have a strong volunteer base in many, many states.
“We have the resources, we have the energy to continue the struggle and I think at the end of the day we’re going to surprise a lot of people. I think we’re gonna win this thing,” he added.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/bernie-sanders-promises-to-fight-to-the-convention/
I’d like to see the Mad Jew chew through The Lizard Queen’s backside. That’s some good political theater.
2nd-Place Finish Pierces Donald Trump’s Mystique, but Another Chance Comes Quickly
WEST DES MOINES, Iowa — Donald J. Trump, the builder, casino owner, golf course developer, reality television star and tabloid fixture who said his “life has been about winning” and led every national Republican presidential poll for the past seven months, will now be known by a title to which he is unaccustomed: loser.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/02/us/donald-trump-loses-iowa.html?_r=1
Goon,
how is the snowfall out along the Colorado Trail this year? I am thinking I may hit the trail in late April and hike for about 3 weeks southbound from Denver. If the snow has been banner, then I will probably resign to hiking along the Appalachian Trail instead during that time. I have experience with winter camping and snowshoeing but the CT is not nearly as well marked as the AT so I might be too eager right now.
Has China’s economy finally stopped sliding into the abyss?
The Guardian
China manufacturing sector shrinks at fastest rate for more than three years
January figures in benchmark purchasing managers’ index are weaker than expected and mark a sixth straight month of contraction
Workers on an automobile manufacturing line at a workshop in Hefei city, China’s Anhui province
China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 49.4 in January, compared with the previous month’s reading of 49.7. Photograph: Wu Hong/EPA
Reuters
Sunday 31 January 2016 21.48 EST
Last modified on Monday 1 February 2016 01.54 EST
Activity in China’s manufacturing sector contracted at its fastest pace in almost three-and-a-half years in January, missing market expectations, an official survey showed on Monday.
The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) stood at 49.4 in January, compared with the previous month’s reading of 49.7 and below the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. It is the weakest index reading since August 2012.
Analysts polled by Reuters predicted a reading of 49.6.
The PMI marks the sixth consecutive month of factory activity contraction, underlining a weak start for the year for a manufacturing complex under severe pressure from falling prices and overcapacity in key sectors including steel and energy.
…
The BBC
Business
China manufacturing shrinks for sixth month in a row
1 February 2016
From the section Business
Activity in China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth month in a row in January - and hit its lowest level since 2012.
According to the government’s latest factory survey, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed a reading of 49.4 for the month compared to December’s reading of 49.7.
Expectations were for a reading of 49.6 for the month.
A figure below 50 indicates that factory activity contracted.
‘Quite concerning’
Analysts said the numbers confirmed that momentum in Chinese economic activity had continued to weaken into 2016.
“It is quite concerning that the significant monetary and fiscal stimulus in 2015 has only managed to slow the rate of decline in China’s industrial activity,” IG Markets’ Angus Nicholson told the BBC.
Image copyright Getty Images Image caption China’s economy grew by 6.9% in 2015, compared with 7.3% a year earlier, marking its slowest growth in a quarter of a century
The first three months of activity is considered the weakest in China due to the seasonal disruption of Chinese New Year, Mr Nicholson explained.
“The big question is how much of this first quarter weakness in China will carry over to the second quarter. It is looking like it will be quite a struggle for China to even hit its lowered growth target of 6.5% for 2016.”
China’s economy grew by 6.9% in 2015, compared with 7.3% a year earlier, marking its slowest growth in a quarter of a century. Beijing had set an official growth target for the year of “about 7%”.
China’s slowing growth is a major concern for investors around the world, as the country has been a key driver of the global economy.
…
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Commentary
China’s Economic Hinge Point
Look beyond the unsettling news out of Beijing lately and behold the stirring of the Chinese consumer.
By Andy Kessler
Feb. 1, 2016 6:59 p.m. ET
China sneezed and the world caught double pneumonia. So far in 2016, oil prices and global markets have taken a pounding as China’s economy slows. The Dow is down 6%, and the Shanghai Composite lost 24% in January. Plus, the yuan has plummeted to a five-year low. And now Donald Trump wants to whack Chinese exports with a 45% tariff. Is the Great Boom of China finally ending?
…
BloombergBusiness
Chinese Stocks Extend Monthly Rout as Energy Producers Decline
Kyoungwha Kim
February 2, 2016 — 6:46 PM MST
Updated on February 2, 2016 — 9:20 PM MST
Global Stocks Sell Off: What Happened to the QE Premium?
PetroChina leads energy companies lower as crude below $30
H shares tumble, heading for lowest close since March 2009
Chinese stocks dropped, extending last month’s rout, as traders unwound bullish bets and plunging oil prices weighed on energy producers.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.2 percent to 2,717.50 at the break, extending its slide this year to 23 percent. PetroChina Co. slid to a one week-low, leading energy companies lower. Developers eked out gains after the central bank lowered mortgage down payments for first-home buyers. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index tumbled 2.8 percent, heading for its lowest close since March 2009.
Margin debt in China’s stock market shrunk to the lowest level since December 2014 on Monday, a sign of waning investor confidence after the Shanghai Composite’s biggest monthly tumble since 2008. The central bank said it will allow banks to cut the minimum required mortgage down payment to 20 percent from 25 percent for first-home purchases to the lowest level ever, as it steps up support for the property market. Mainland markets will be closed all next week for lunar new year holidays.
…
Top News
Wed Feb 3, 2016 | 2:08 AM EST
China stocks fall despite property easing measures
SHANGHAI Feb 3 (Reuters) - China’s stocks resumed their slide on Wednesday as sceptical investors quickly booked profits on gains made in the previous day, shrugging off fresh government measures to boost the property market.
The CSI300 index of the largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell 0.4 percent to 2,948.64 points.
The Shanghai Composite Index also lost 0.4 percent to 2,739.25 points.
Late on Tuesday, China said it would reduce the minimum down payment required for first- and second-time home buyers in most cities, a move aimed at clearing a massive housing glut that is weighing on the property market and the broader economy.
…