Bits Bucket for February 4, 2016
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here. Please visit my Youtube channel which you can also find here:
http:tinyurl.com/http-hbb-com
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here. Please visit my Youtube channel which you can also find here:
http:tinyurl.com/http-hbb-com
Is stock market volatility making you queasy?
Marketwatch dot com
Ugly earnings may mean a scary 20% S&P 500 plunge
By Mark DeCambre
Published: Feb 3, 2016 3:53 p.m. ET
Are corporate earnings signaling a market crash?
Stormy skies ahead as corporate earnings disappoint.
A storm may be brewing in corporate earnings.
Lackluster economic data, plunging oil prices (CLH6, +1.21%) petering global economic growth and a rising dollar (DXY, -0.57%) are just some of the issues the U.S. stock market is wrestling with.
All are weighing on corporate earnings, which are on track to register a third consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines, according to John Butters, senior analyst at FactSet.
…
Marketwatch dot com
Opinion: It’s the earnings, stupid (and they’re going down)
By John Coumarianos
Published: Feb 3, 2016 10:15 a.m. ET
Sharply lower S&P 500 profits is a warning for stock investors
Getty
Analysts and pundits have been trying to understand why stocks have had such a bad start to 2016.
The S&P 500 lost 5% in January, and it continues to slide. Is the decline due to decelerating growth and currency devaluation in China? Is it a global economic slowdown reflected by shockingly low oil prices? Or perhaps the market is reacting to the Federal Reserve hiking rates for the first time in nearly a decade?
The truth is that nobody knows why markets move as they on a day-to-day, month-to-month or even year-to-year basis. But long-term returns hinge on earnings-per-share (EPS) growth and dividends. Even overall GDP growth seems to have no effect on long-term stock returns if it’s not accompanied by earnings-per-share growth and dividend growth.
So if short-term market moves are inexplicable, and long-term returns depend on EPS growth and dividends, what can investors expect?
…
Marketwatch dot com
Recession risks warn of ‘severe’ drop in the stock market
By Tomi Kilgore
Published: Feb 2, 2016 1:08 p.m. ET
Most S&P 500 stocks could fall 50% or more if a ‘worst-case’ recession unfolds
Romina Amato/Red Bull via Getty Images
Another brokerage firm has used the “R” word on Tuesday, warning investors to wake up to the idea that rising risks of a recession could send the stock market over a steep cliff.
Based on current valuations, the prices of most stocks don’t appear to have factored in a recession scenario, “hence the downside should we see a recession could be rather severe,” RBC Capital Markets’ global equity team wrote in a research note to clients..
Applying a stress test to their coverage universe, using worst-case, price-to-earnings valuations seen during the 2008-to-2009 recession, RBC analysts said they believe the shares of most companies could still fall another 50% or more from current levels.
The concern for RBC analysts stems from the recently volatility in the stock market, caused by macro weakness, softness in China and commodity market challenges.
On Monday, Deutsche Bank strategist David Bianco said the second-half of 2015 was “clearly a profit recession” for S&P 500 companies, and suggested it probably won’t be until the second half of this year that “healthy” growth returns.
…
do u feel confident about the value of your stocks being propped up by daily jawboning?
Talk about worthless housing all you want but at least it provides shelter!
Rent the shelter for half the monthly cost. Then buy later after prices crater for 65% less.
Where were you 7 years ago when they were giving away property?
You got greedy thinkn prices would fall further.
You are on the wrong side of the trade again.
Paying 250% premiums for rapidly depreciating houses is no bargain Poet.
Sounds like more fraaaaaaaaaaaaud.
“You got greedy thinkn prices would fall further.”
They would have if the Fed hadn’t gone outside of its mandate to reflate the Housing Bubble. Who could have predicted it?
And why aren’t they propping up the value of oil or dry bulk shipping? Investors are currently losing their shirts on prices the central banking cartel did not decide to prop up. It’s all a big crap shoot when it comes to deciding which asset prices will be manipulated.
you have some valid points. It can feel like a big casino these days and sometimes luck comes your way.
one thing is very apparent : Stocks and homes are key to the economic recovery
You only win if you get out (sell) at the top. Otherwise it’s another coaster ride down.
They would have if the Fed hadn’t gone outside of its mandate to reflate the Housing Bubble. Who could have predicted it?
You still think this is true?
The Fed dropped rates to zero in late 2008…housing bottomed when, mid-2010?
Zero rates didn’t stop prices from falling. And prices didn’t stabilize based on people borrowing cheap debt to buy houses. They bottomed on the basis of people making sense of the rent vs. price ratio, and paying all-cash for those assets.
The math at that point made sense from a rent-price standpoint…and rents are based on supply/demand for shelter.
Now, from that point forward, low rates really put rocket fuel in asset price appreciation, but I didn’t see the Fed’s rate policy form the bottom.
Housing didn’t bottom. The correction was interrupted by foreclosure moratoriums still in effect in all 50 states.
Professor Bear:: They would have if the Fed hadn’t gone outside of its mandate to reflate the Housing Bubble. Who could have predicted it?
Rental Watch:: You still think this is true?
The Fed sure thinks it’s true. From the 2009 transcripts:
As the Fed weighed strategies for arresting the economic tailspin in March 2009, including the collapsing housing market, Elizabeth Duke, a member of the board of governors, offered a colorful way of thinking of their task.
“I’d like to start with the story of an elderly wealthy gentleman who had taken a young bride and begun to spend money like crazy,” Ms. Duke said. “His friends got very concerned that he was going to go through his entire fortune, and they elected one of their number to go and talk to him about it. He said: ‘Sam, we’re really concerned. We want to make sure that you know that you can’t buy love.’ Sam said: ‘I know you can’t buy love, but if you spend enough money, you can buy something that looks so close you can hardly tell the difference.’ ”
What does this have to do with housing? She continued:
“So I think if we spent enough money, got enough of a hit right now, it would look like a floor on house prices, and we might have something every bit as good as a floor on house prices. It seems like the best time, when we have the synergies with the housing program, which should reduce foreclosures and should increase the ability to refinance. Both borrowers and purchasers are so incredibly hair-trigger sensitive to what goes on with mortgage interest rates. Mortgage interest rates went down when we made the announcement before, but that was in November, and that was not the season when people buy houses. If we do this in the spring, when there are other programs that would support it and when it’s pretty obvious that there’s not going to be any fiscal stimulus coming along that would also further support house purchases, then maybe we’ve got a window of opportunity where we can go in there and put a floor under house prices, and that will start to move some of these other things.”
And so what would become a multi-trillion dollar effort to pump money into mortgage markets got a key boost.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/05/upshot/ben-bernanke-has-an-impressive-passive-aggressive-streak-and-other-things-we-learned-in-the-new-fed-transcripts.html?_r=0
Rental Watch: You still think this is true?
Now, the Fed raising interest rates, and the rates on mortgages dropping hard might have been an unintended consequence. Or perhaps somehow engineered, they still are buying billions in mortgages despite QE purportedly being over. Engineering higher house prices itself has unintended consequences, the bane of central planners everywhere.
As far as the stock market goes, I see things like this - the board of directors of the New York Fed: https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/org_nydirectors.html
And of the Federal Reserve system generally: http://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/directors/list-directors.htm
and I see luminaries of the financial sector working diligently in the public interest.
So, while I have no doubt there are people who do know what the Fed is planning to do with public money, and who actually influence it and hobnob with the decision makers, that unfortunately is not the retail investor or borrower.
Oh, and Elizabeth Duke is another one of those luminaries of the financial sector working tirelessly in the public interest:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Ashburn_Duke
President of multiple banks, head of the American Banker’s Association, that sort of thing.
Thanks Neuromance.
I have a day job which makes it challenging to spend my days pointing out Rental Watch’s propaganda posts.
“ConocoPhillips Slashes Dividend, Warns Of Lower Prices For Longer”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-04/conocophillips-slashes-dividend-prepares-lower-prices-longer-weatherford-fire-15-all
Not me. Market volatility is good for making money.
Buy the dips! Buy oil! I purchased 600 shares of IENAX last Thursday at $18.10. I will buy more on the next dip.
I backed up the truck last week during the firesale on FCX, AUY, SSRI, SWC, and PALDF. Ka-CHING!
I like FCX. Might get some soon. Thanks.
Most degenerate gamblers would agree with you Jingle_Fraud.
RT dot com (you can’t post that here, better stick with the New York Times) provides a narrative on the Trans-Pacific Partnership:
“the TPP will come with a private tribunal system, or an investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) process, in which multinational corporate entities will be granted broad powers to challenge sovereign nations’ government regulations, rules, actions and court rulings if those laws or policies are perceived as cutting in on intellectual property values and profits.”
Sounds pretty globey? Get back to your Washington Post.
“Any economic benefits of the deal will go to corporations, not workers in any of the participating nations, opponents say. Labor unions, among many others, have lined up to oppose the TPP based on concerns over a number of issues, including currency manipulation, environmental and health protections, food safety, pharmaceutical monopolies, offshoring of jobs, internet privacy, government transparency, and local governmental control.”
A Davos/Aspen pigmen production:
“Leaked drafts of TPP negotiations have suggested that corporations would be allowed to sue governments in private courts over lost profits due to regulation, elevating corporate entities to the status held by sovereign nations.
https://www.rt.com/usa/331051-tpp-un-human-rights/
This can’t possibly be true, Goon. Our MSM, which scrupulously looks out for the public interest, would surely have alerted us to such an oligarch-enriching scam.
Oh, wait….
I’ll repeat an offer I’ve made here before.
If anyone would an itinerary for a post-NAFTA ruin porn tour of Northeast Ohio, including but not limited to Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown, Canton, Lorain, I can provide a half-day, full-day, or full-week itinerary of this country’s former manufacturing base.
I can provide a half-day, full-day, or full-week itinerary of this country’s former manufacturing base.
Just post it online & leave links to it here.
Hah! The economy must be in a tailspin if you are out shopping for stocks.
Labor unions, among many others, have lined up to oppose the TPP based on concerns over a number of issues,
Those who are complaining are those loathsome progressives you’re always going on about, right goon? If those demons are against it, we should be for it right?
Is this what Noam Chomsky called Manufacturing Consent?
Obama Pressed to Open Libyan Military Front to Combat ISIS
“Top national security aides are urging President Obama to approve the use of American military power in Libya as the number of Islamic State fighters there has grown to between 5,000 and 6,500.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/05/world/africa/isis-libya-us-special-ops.html
How Serious Is the Threat of ISIS in America?
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/04/us/isis-in-america.html
These are the top two articles at upper left on the New York Times website right now. The FoxNewsHate window lickers and mouth breathers have already been rallied with an endless barrage of neocon Drudge Report links, so now it’s time to get the curled-pinky artisan-scone set on board. After all, as my betters inform, the death of 500,000 Iraqi children was “worth it.”
American taxpayers you’re getting played for suckers and fools.
And speaking of Drudge Report links, here Breitbart rallies the base:
“President Obama spoke warmly about Islam during his speech at a mosque today, highlighting the contributions that Muslims had made to the fabric of American society.
“Islam has always been part of America,” he said, detailing the beginnings of the religion among African slaves brought to America.
During his speech, he praised the religion for being a religion of peace – not the hate preached by groups like ISIS.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/03/obama-visits-mosque-islam-has-always-been-part-of-america/
The base then rallied, what does it do? It elects the candidate that Sheldon Adelson purchased. Emphasis on the word purchased. You’re being sold down the river in chains on a boat to New Orleans, so that the 40% of the Republican primary electorate that believes the Earth is 6,000 years old can get Raptured five minutes sooner.
No smaller government, less regulation, or lower taxes happening here.
What a complete, pathetic troll bams is. “You guys are great, now let me see which country of yours I’m gonna bomb the heck out of today”.
Looks like it’s Libya’s day in the barrel.
Remember, it’s never as much about the content of a narrative as it is the control of a narrative.
What a complete, pathetic troll bams is
Because he’s not furthering the narrative by demonizing muslims?
I’m having trouble following the logic here.
Which part of this are you having trouble following?
“You guys are great, now let me see which country of yours I’m gonna bomb the heck out of today”.
I would assume the logic is: “We’re not at war with your religion (which has 1.5 billion followers), we’re at war with some nutcases within your religion.”
Unlike, say, Trump and the neocons, who apparently think it would be neat if every muslim in the world thought we were their sworn enemy.
So it’s hard to see how Obama fits the neocon narrative mold, unless you just throw all logic to the wind. Which seems to be some people’s method.
“So it’s hard to see how Obama fits the neocon narrative mold,”
What was it you said a month or so ago…
they kill each other and we don’t care
I can’t remember either, I’m sure some comment you chose to take out of context and be selectively outraged about.
More importantly, why are you trying to change the subject? Losing the argument?
“You guys are great, now let me see which country of yours I’m gonna bomb the heck out of today”.
That’s directly contrary to his message. Their country is America.
‘fraid not.
That’s directly contrary to his message. Their country is America.
They might have an American birth or naturalization certificate, but many of them still identify with “the old country” first. I know this is hard for Gringos to accept.
“I can’t remember either, I’m sure some comment you chose to take out of context and be selectively outraged about.”
Ben Jones would remember, he’s the one who called you out on it.
“More importantly, why are you trying to change the subject?”
The subject is still you having trouble following this…
“You guys are great, now let me see which country of yours I’m gonna bomb the heck out of today”.
They might have an American birth or naturalization certificate, but many of them still identify with “the old country” first. I know this is hard for Gringos to accept.
You’re making a big assumption there about the members of that Baltimore mosque.
You’re making a big assumption there about the members of that Baltimore mosque.
Like I said, I know this is hard for Gringos to accept. A naturalization certificate doesn’t erase the ties and allegiance to the old country. Everyone I know who naturalized did so for reasons of convenience, and not out of conviction. And except when it wasn’t allowed by the old country they hung on to their old passports.
It’s not a matter of it being hard to accept. I also know people who have naturalized for reasons of convenience. One could say that, at some point, their have two countries and their two passports reflect that fact.
I could also mention that there are many millions of gringo Americans who also have feelings of affinity for the countries of their ancestors. For example, if you were to travel to New York City or Chicago on St. Patrick’s Day or Columbus Day, you would see big parades where Americans celebrate their connections to countries that they’ve never visited and actually don’t know much about. In some cases, their great-grandparents came over 100 or 150 years ago.
What jeff said.
And for the record, it’s not necessary for bams to demonize them, they don’t need any help with that.
Whose narrative is this anyway?
“Hillary Clinton is a courageous hawk. And at Wednesday’s CNN town hall the leading Democratic presidential candidate said she might in fact have to expand U.S. military involvement abroad.
“As a voter who is opposed to the United States being the world’s policeman, can you assure me that as president you would not expand our military involvement abroad?”
“No, I can’t, Michael,” Clinton said.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/hillary-i-may-expand-u.s.-military-involvement-abroad/article/2000895
Look at the TeeVee. Look at the FoxNewsHate. Look at William Kristol, looking back at you through the TeeVee, primped and preened, his manicured hands clasped on the desk in front of him, and his cosmetically whitened teeth beaming.
Neocons gonna neocon.
See also:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/02/03/want-endless-war-love-the-u-s-empire-clintons-your-choice/
Remember kidz, these narratives all lead to only one place, a multi-trillion dollar, multi-front, multi-decade, boots on the ground land war in the Middle East, so get your yellow magnetic flag ribbons, your Power Of Pride stickers, and any other trinkets and baubles that make you feel better about the imminent orgy of Blood and Death, all in order to Secure the Realm.
“Republican presidential candidate Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) somehow found a way to criticize President Barack Obama’s speech on Wednesday denouncing anti-Muslim bigotry.
Rubio, who often stresses religious liberty and his own faith on the campaign trail, said Obama’s words at a Baltimore mosque were intended to divide, rather than unite, the American people.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/marco-rubio-obama-muslims_us_56b2bf8ae4b04f9b57d879d5?05cxflxr
Aren’t there laws supposed to prevent the Likud Party from running political operations in the United States? But never mind that, because Rapture.
Marco Rubio, Banana Republican
The Banana Republican thinks he can “unite the party”. The guy is beyond delusional. Reminds me of the time here in Florida when he was Speaker of the House in the state and his wife had a little spending spree on the Republican state party credit card. He got very offended when he was called out on it, on the grounds that it was OK because his wife was the “First Lady of the Florida House”.
The Florida journos had a field day with that for a while. Who knew there was even such a person as the “First Lady of the Florida House”???
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/marco-rubio-aims-to-show-new-hampshire-voters-he-can-unite-the-party/
A vote for Hillary is a vote for crony capitalism.
http://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-goldman-sachs-speaking-fees-cnn-town-hall-bernie-sanders-2016-2
Mom : Why were you throwing rocks at cars?
Hillary: Everyone was doing it.
RKH: Why did you vote against your own interests as a member of the 99% by mindlessly pulling the lever for Obama, McCain, or Romney?
Voter: Because I’m a stupid, docile sheep like 95% of the electorate. Baaaaa! Baaaaaa!
Mom : Why were you throwing rocks at cars?
Cruz: God told me to.
Ted Cruz gets a spanking fee from GS every night, and yet no one appears to be complaining about that.
Apparently he is a cunning linguist.
Nor are people complaining that Soros gave $6MM to a Clinton PAC, or that the Koch brothers are trying to figure out how to kill Trump’s run.
But dam the socialist to he!!
“Anyone who says the American economy is in decline is peddling fiction.”
– President Barak Obama, 2016 SOTU Address.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/02/04/the-transportation-recession-spreads/
More fiction-peddling as job losses soar 218% in January.
http://www.businessinsider.com/challenger-gray-job-cut-report-january-2016-2
Fiction! ‘Tis fiction, says I! Everything is awesome! The talking heads at CNBC said so….
http://www.businessinsider.com/initial-jobless-claims-february-4-2016-2
The Eurozone financial crisis is contained…Draghi said so. Anyone who claims otherwise is peddling fiction….
http://www.businessinsider.com/yanis-varoufakis-europe-isnt-working-2016-2
If you like your fiction, you can keep your fiction….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-04/starting-2016-bang-challenger-reports-highest-january-layoffs-2009
Hmm, these fiction peddlers seem to be on to something….
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/04/us-layoffs-hit-75114-in-jan-surging-to-6-month-high-challenger.html
Nope, were flatlining following the collapse of an era of debt-fueled consumption, not declining.
But only because of soaring federal debts, stock buybacks, and money printing, with most of the proceeds going to Generation Greed and the rest.
What happens when this can’t continue anymore? Obama needs the game to continue for 12 more months to avoid having to worry about it.
And how does it go from elevated to flatline?
It declines. And declines more. Then declines more.
What happens when this can’t continue anymore?
That’s what keeps the Koch bros up at night, pouring Hitler and Stalin’s seed money into their “everything left of Cruz is socialism” fake grassroots political “movements”.
Fake grassroots is sometimes called AstroTurf, which would be appropriate for Ted Cruz, who grew up mostly in Houston.
…and who sports obvious hair plugs.
“What happens when this can’t continue anymore? ”
By then they expect the very expensive boomers to die.
And speaking of dying, those Kochies aren’t getting any younger. It has only been in the past few years that they surfaced just long enough to smile and tell us all that despite all that secrecy, they in reality were good guys, honest to god we promise! Trying to get right with Jesus?
Since when does secrecy=evil?
If so, why hasn’t HRC been labeled as “evil” for keeping a private e-mail server while serving as Secretary of State?
I don’t think anybody hear under appreciates the evil of Hillary Clinton.
I can’t wait for Mr. Obama to start back “peddling”.
Germans elect a globalist, then decide they don’t like the fruits of globalism and oligarch-backed “fundamental transformation.”
https://www.rt.com/news/331232-merkel-refugee-crisis-poll/
Raymond
Which of today’s current presidential candidates would you vote for?
The only one I really like is Jim Webb. Since he is unlikely to be on the ballot, I will probably vote for Trump, albeit with fear and loathing. Not so much out of any affinity for Trump the candidate, but rather as an upraised middle finger to corrupt Establishment GOP.
RT dot com?
Betters inform you can’t post that here. Or ZeroHedge. Or InfoWars. Betters inform you better stay on the pillow fort, footed pajama, safe space, trigger warning, plantation of thought as curated by real journalists.
Don’t say you weren’t warned.
You can post them but we’ll read them with skepticism ,seeing as both sources seem to be following and writing Putin’s narrative.
If you can’t see that they’re doing that, you’re no Hunter S. Thompson.
I read a wide variety of news sources, and I read all of them with skepticism and an awareness they may be pushing an agenda. Still, I find a lot of good info in such “scorned” outlets as RT or al-Jazeera.
People with brains can form independent judgments.
The market is searching for direction again this week.
Can central bankers desperate talk every week keep the market propped up? Are they gonna help you if you lose your life savings again?
Poet,
You’ll learn to earn a profit during major market corrections if you stick around here.
*Read.Think.Learn.*
I think I have a shorter time than your 7 year periods of talking about a correction that never happens.CAVEAT EMPTOR MY FRIEND!
commodities falling
housing falling
stocks falling
Prices are falling my friend. Prices are falling.
7 year…
More than enough time to get out of debt, if you read and understood the memo.
Currency devaluation is going to save asset prices from collapse!
That is true buddy. we need more Fiat! All we need is more cash in peoples pockets so they can consume.
Consumption is 70% of the economy now.
If the value of the currency goes down the asset must go up!
That is econ 101 .
“Consumption is 70% of the economy now.”
In the advanced course they teach you that lending is the other 30% of the economy. Therefore none of us need to produce anything, simply borrow and consume.
When I do my taxes, I pull up the Zillow values for year end and compare the difference from the previous year. Values are up anywhere from 5-11% in the Sacramento foothills. Surprising, as I thought the value chsnges were flatter.
“Values” don’t mean much Jingle_Fraud. Prices are down and falling.
Remember…. You can “value” your 10 year old Chevy pickup at $50k but where is the buyer at that price?
So it is with all depreciating assets like houses.
“When I do my taxes, I pull up the Zillow values for year end and compare the difference from the previous year. Values are up anywhere from 5-11% in the Sacramento foothills. Surprising, as I thought the value changes were flatter.”
Allow me to make a few changes in order to demonstrate a point:
When I do my taxes, I pull up the Zillow PRICES for year end and compare the difference from the previous year. PRICES are up anywhere from 5-11% in the Sacramento foothills. Surprising, as I thought the PRICE changes were flatter.
There. As you can see, prices equals values, and these values are not determined by what is usually called fundamentals, instead these values are something that is voted on, voted on by thousands of (possibly deluded) people who for one reason or another have access to … have access to a way of making a commitment to buy.
Note: These thousands of (possibly deluded) people do not actually buy these houses and pay these prices, instead they COMMIT THEMSELVES to buying these houses and paying these prices - something they are able to do because The System (for now and for its own reasons) is enabling them to to do so.
The problem with that transaction prices are going in the opposite direction.
Even if the people are not paying the price to buy the house outright, the BANK is paying the price to buy the house outright. Therefore, somebody in The System thinks that the price = value. So Jingle is still correct.
The bank is not buying a house. The bank is only interested in owning you and your productive output for several decades. What the bank lends you reflects what they think you are worth on an amortized basis.
The end user is renting from the bank for twice the cost. Just like you Donk.
Zillow values are pure fantasy.
But the price direction and magnitude are not fantasy.
For the investment we made into rental homes, I need to have some way of tracking an estimate of aggregate portfolio value.
So, I took starting points for each home, which was based on a bank appraisal that occurred AFTER we bought for cash (the appraisal was not trying to “hit” any number to close a purchase transaction). Going forward, I used Zillow’s appreciation numbers for each home’s particular zip code and number of bedrooms (and inflated the value based off of the original appraisal).
The resultant numbers obtained (appraisal inflated by Zillow’s appreciation estimate for all homes in aggregate) was my value.
Our auditors care about how accurate my method is. So, now that we are selling, I can see how this method actually works.
With a sample size of more than 4 dozen “round trips”, I can compare the aggregate sale price of all the homes to my aggregate estimate of value.
Using Zillow’s appreciation estimates, my value estimate is within 1% of the actual sale prices for the homes.
Is Zillow accurate for any given home? +/- 20% or more from what I’ve seen. So, I agree with you, their value for any individual home is not very accurate.
However, Jingle wasn’t looking at individual home values, but how the market has been moving. That is a different question. Does Zillow give you a good sense for the direction of prices in a market? Pretty damn close from what I’ve seen.
You paid too much, your cap rates are negative and there isn’t a buyer in sight at a fraction of the inflated amount you paid for them.
If only HA could read…..
“So, now that we are selling…..”
Selling actually requires a buyer in sight!
We’ll be happy to read right after you write something truthful Jingle_Fraud.
Gold powers on. Could the sheeple be waking up to the fact we have Keynesian fraudsters running our central banks for the exclusive enrichment of their .1% cohorts in the financial sector?
http://www.kitco.com/market/
Where is Harry “$700 per ounce prediction” Dent?
When gold breaks $1400 I will slow down my buying.
“When gold breaks $1400 I will slow down my buying.”
When that happens I’ll start doing some one day a week checks on it. If, and it should happen to reach $900 I’ll think of adding to my holdings.
“Boost for bitcoin”
“Hill went on to position the round as a vote of confidence for the bitcoin ecosystem as a whole, arguing that he believes bitcoin’s code base will become widely used, even by private or permissioned blockchain solutions due to its proven functionality.”
“Bitcoin is the most mature blockchain protocol. It’s had a running $2bn-$7bn security bounty, the largest bounty ever placed on a protocol, for years, and that gives people confidence,” Hill explained.”
http://www.coindesk.com/blockstream-55-million-series-a/
A fine collection of repurposed and invented words! My favorite today is “ecosystem”.
It would appear the big money is being raised to vastly increase the supply of imagino-currency, a supply once believed to be limited by the laws of nature.
AUY up 8% today.
Ended up 8.91%, to be precise.
West Lake Stevens, WA Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/west-lake-stevens-wa/home-values/
You might as well post prices for “West Bumtucky” while you are at it.
Falling housing prices my friend. Falling housing prices.
Is it beginning to dawn on young Democrats, aka sheep, that mindlessly voting for institutionalized corruption and crony capitalism is imnicable to their long-term futures?
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/sanders-spotlights-clinton-vulnerabilities-218722
who is funding the clinton campaign once again? once again nobody gives a sh@t and just play along.
Hillary supporters: the cream of the crap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPob5-_EAmc
Who do you plan on voting for?
The sea was angry yesterday my friends, like a Bernie Sanders supporter at an Iowa caucus coin flip.
Indeed it was. The crater rage continues today.
The warmist narrative has gone dormant lately, have you noticed?
Its usual proponents, Bloomberg, Huffington Post, New York Times have dropped warmism like a used condom.
Why is that?
“Why is that?”
Paris Climate Deal Seen Costing $12.1 Trillion Over 25 Years
by Alex Morales
January 29, 2016 — 8:12 AM EST
The findings from Bloomberg New Energy Finance and Ceres, a Boston-based coalition of investors and environmentalists, show that wind parks, solar farms and other alternatives to fossil fuels are already on course to get $6.9 trillion over the next 25 years through private investment spurred on by government support mechanisms. Another $5.2 trillion is needed to reach the United Nations goal of holding warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) set out in the climate agreement.
“Policymakers worldwide need to provide stable, long-lasting policies that will unleash far bigger capital flows,” said Sue Reid, vice-president of climate and clean energy at Ceres, a nonprofit group. “The Paris agreement sent a powerful signal, creating tremendous momentum for policymakers and investors to take actions to accelerate renewable energy growth at the levels needed.”
“Paris Climate Deal Seen Costing $12.1 Trillion Over 25 Years”
Dumb ‘em down. Profit.
through private investment spurred on by government support mechanisms.
The horror. And all so we can switch to a renewable energy form that doesn’t destroy the planet and empower religious nutcases.
Crazy, innit?
Falling enegry prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels will take care of that.
“through private investment spurred on by government support mechanisms.”
Solyndra x 1000
Solyndra x 1000
Gosh, one company went broke. Let’s throw in the towel and go back to dinosaur juice. At least it keeps the wars going! (And that’s what really matters, right?)
“Gosh, one company went broke. Let’s throw in the towel and go back to dinosaur juice.”
Green Corruption: Department of Energy “Junk Loans” and Cronyism –– Intro
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Concerned Citizen reveals –– via the House Oversight Investigation and years of research –– that over 85% of the 27, including the 23 “Junk grade” DOE loans have “meaningful” political connections to President Obama and the Democratic Party.
In fact, the report released last month by the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform (led by CA Representative, Darrell Issa) “painted a startling picture of mismanagement at the Department of Energy.” The most damaging is that of the 27 loan guarantees under the 1705 program, of which the DOE doled out in excess of $16 billion, “23 of the loans were rated “Junk grade” due to their poor credit quality, while the other four were rated BBB, which is at the lowest end of the ‘investment’ grade of categories.” According to Issa’s Team, the DOE’s 1705 loan portfolio overall average was BB-.” Now, I’m no financial guru, but I wouldn’t want that grade on my report card.
So why did the DOE back so many high-risk investments, particularly at a time when we are drowning in a tsunami of debt?
In a gripping line of questioning, Ohio Representative Jim Jordan confronted this issue head on during that same hearing where he pressed Secretary Chu on nine of the firms that received loans, revealing their political connections. Chu countered that the loans were based on merit. Yet Jordan was perplexed, “so if you weren’t helping your buddies, and you were basing your decisions on the merits of the loan, how do you explain the fact that 23 of 27 recipients of the loan guarantees were rated as junk status investments?” Jordan concluded, “If it wasn’t your political buddies, it had to be incompetence.”
Finally, the probe into the DOE and how they “pick winners and losers” for “green ventures” has gone in the right direction, however, Congressman Jordan overlooked the fact that it’s not just nine –– it’s the majority of the 27 projects recorded by Issa’s Team.
Political buddies indeed –– 21 energy firms are behind the 27 projects found in the House Oversight investigation, and 18 of them are politically connected to President Obama (15 alone) and the Democratic Party, that’s over 85%! 13 were bundlers, donors, and supporters for Obama’s 2008 campaign, and two are members of the president’s Job Council, while three are allied to Senator Harry Reid –– all with ample other Democrat links in the mix.
Nevertheless, before Congress caught on, Peter Schweizer’s New York Times bestseller, Throw Them All Out –– released last November and featured on 60 Minutes, exposing the “permanent political class” and the insidious practice of “Congressional insider trading” perpetrated from both sides of the political isle –– devotes an entire chapter to alternative-energy, “Spreading the Wealth… to Billionaires!” Whereas, others players in this clean-energy scheme are uncovered by Schweizer, this chapter digs into a few of the major DOE programs operating under the stimulus, including the tens of billions of dollars that was dished out through the 1705 Loan Guarantee Program.
That’s right –– millionaires and billionaires got their fare share of green funds! Interesting enough, Schweizer’s book divulged over half of the energy firms listed in the Houses Oversight’s investigation, and what’s astounding is that once again, the majority, 80% of the DOE loans, grants and special tax credits, reviewed by Schweizer, “went to companies with Obama-campaign connections or large donors to the Democratic Party,” and that was as of September 2011!
As the president doubles down on clean energy –– all the way from his 2012 State of the Union address, to his 2013 budget, and off to “algae pushing” –– many of the “green lottery winners” are bundling and campaigning for Obama again, including Secretary Chu, albeit with Hatch Act restrictions. And you can bet your bottom dollar that these large donors are banking on President Obama’s 2012 reelection victory, counting on more government subsidies.
Within the pages of the House Oversight report, are disturbing charges –– backed up with corroboration –– that range from poor to disastrous management, to bias and favoritism, as well as wasteful spending, in some cases a series of DOE violations, and how the DOE touted “misleading job creation statistics.”
Even so, the DOE has come under fire by other federal watchdog agencies, especially since their loan programs have significantly expanded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, which was meant to stimulate the economy and create jobs. But now it has become clear that it’s stimulating the pockets and securing jobs for those that have significant ties to the Democratic Party and the White House –– “green cronies.”
Additionally, under investigation by the Senate Budget Committee are seven solar companies –– severely scrutinized in this House Oversight inquiry –– that in March 2009 “received fast-tracked approval by the Department of Interior (DOI) to lease federal lands in a no-bid process,” a recent story tracked by The Washington Free Beacon. Ironically, these decisions were made with “little scrutiny over environmental damages,” and according to the Los Angeles Times, it has caused strife amongst environmentalists and some “eco-drama,” including news that “Gang Green,” the nation’s big environmental players, “were silent on the projects or actively lobbied for them.” This same “solar seven” also snagged billions of DOE funds under the 1705 loan program, as well as renewable energy grants from the Treasury Department.
Hmmm, favoritism, poor documentation, questionable transparency, special treatment, and so much more to ponder…still, we’ll move on and examine the energy department’s “junk loans” that were funded with tens of billions of taxpayer money.
Let’s throw in the towel…switch to a renewable energy…
The really difficult thing to understand is that our “renewable” technologies consume more juice than they replace. That lens changes the picture of what the Globalists are doing.
Get your energy from kind, honest oil men instead!
Kerosene will never replace whale oil!
Gosh, one company went broke. Let’s throw in the towel and go back to dinosaur juice. At least it keeps the wars going! (And that’s what really matters, right?)
If you like your brown cloud, you can keep your brown cloud.
I prefer big soot laden black plumes discharging from my oil burners exhaust pipe. Crop dusting in the suburbs has never been so much fun.
Scruti, Oddie and Colorado should apply for one of those Department of Energy “Junk Loans”.
They already have a Wind Farm going.
Unfortunately for them, it’s only the big donors to the Obama-campaign and the Democratic Party who get their fair share of green funds.
Loan! PFFT… If I go into oil exploration, I can get GRANTS!
So you’re defending the brown clouds? I don’t know about you, but I’d rather not breathe that, just like I would rather not drink water from Flint, Michigan.
But I get it. Ideology trumps everything else.
Hold your breath.
Walk to work. Walk to shop. Live in a small well insulated house. Use electricity that is generated downwind, or if you please faux-renewables that are manufactured downwind.
You can’t be zooming all over the place and blame your brown cloud on people living 2,000 miles to the East.
“You can’t be zooming all over the place and blame your brown cloud on people living 2,000 miles to the East.”
It’s tough to convince Mrs. Ghandi that Kim isn’t having fun.
The Paris climate summit in December got eclipsed by the ISIS attacks. I scrolled all the way to the bottom of Salon dot com today and they only had one warmist narrative, by Naomi Klein.
They also had a Cecil the Lion narrative, nice to know he’s not forgotten.
Remember….. Nothing accelerates the economy like falling energy prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.
And yet, surprisingly, the simple question wasn’t answered. Which Republican candidate still standing:
-Opposed the repeal of Glass-Steagall?
-Opposed the Iraq War?
-Opposed the Patriot Act?
-Opposed the TPP? (and NAFTA, and CAFTA, etc)
Don’t deflect. Don’t redirect. Answer. (especially since you’re one of the larger R-fluffers here)
lol@az_dude
http://goo.gl/nhb3fP
I want to buy your $50,000.00 chevrolet. My offer is contingent on me getting another buyer under contract for 55k before we close the deal.
That is the art of deal TRUMP JR.
Write it up Poet.
Who was it that wanted to turn the Post Office into a bank?
Meanwhile humble Harry Dent last year predicted gold will go down to $700. Homey don’t think so.
Now that the Fed’s liftoff charade is over, is the dollar toast?
I told you that months ago.
That is why I recommended being long commodities, notably black gold.
When the value of the dollar goes down, the commodity oil for example, goes up in price.
If you are a foreign exporter of oil you are most likely gonna get dollars for your oil.
If the value of the dollar collapses then you are gonna want a higher price to compensate right?
If wanting was getting, oil would still be at $140.
Poet you’re always wishing in one hand and $hitting in the other.
Azdude, I think you may be on to something.
As the Fed’s debasement of the dollar starts to manifest in a weaker currency, commodities are bound to rise in USD terms. That makes beaten down resource plays like Rio Tinto (RIO) worth a second look.
Producers are not going to keep forever taking Bernanke Bux backed by nothing of intrinsic value in exchange for tangible goods like base metals or precious metals for that matter.
Now that the Fed’s liftoff charade is over, is the dollar toast?’
yep good point
Now that the Fed’s liftoff charade is over, is the dollar toast?
Since everyone else is in worse shape than we are and their economies are utterly dependent on selling us exports, I would venture to say ‘no’.
Cash my friends. Cash.
Aren’t you concerned about a panicked Fed devaluing your cash?
With a deflationary spiral raging, are you?
I am near Napa. Gas is $2.15 here. It is $2.75 in the OC
$1.48 last week in Missouri.
This……
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/04/us-layoffs-hit-75114-in-jan-surging-to-6-month-high-challenger.html
The thought that all these brick and mortar layoffs is due to on line retail is a false flag -If it is true that on line only accounts for 6 to7% of all retail sales then what gives?
“Wal-Mart accounted for much of the payroll reductions. The nation’s largest retailer said it plans to close 269 stores and expects to let go 16,000 workers.
Macy’s said it will also shutter some locations this year, costing 4,820 employees their jobs.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas CEO John A.Challenger said the shift from in-store selling to online transactions is playing a major part in the scaling back of retail work forces.”
kohls just slashed forecasts and said holiday sales were n the sh@tter.
Where are all the green shoots?
kohls just slashed forecasts and said holiday sales were n the sh@tter.
I bought some clothes there during the “Christmas” season. Not crowded at all. Was also briefly in the local Macy’s. Also a ghost town.
I did all my shopping on-line this year, except for one trip to a store that sells local foods and goods. I suspect a lot of people are shopping on-line.
I think that a big part of Walmart story was that they tried out some new kind of store and it didn’t work out.
In other news, the meaning of false flag appears to be morphing.
Macy’s was due for a contraction. A decade ago they bought out a crapload of competition from the May company — Kaufman’s, Hecht’s, LS Ayers, etc. As a result, I’ve been in several malls which had TWO Macy’s because Macy’s had simply assumed the old May store space.
They tried to make a go of it by expanding the apparel to fill both floors of the first store, putting the Home stuff on one floor of the second store, and giving up the last floor, but it doesn’t appear to be working very well.
Once Sears and Penney’s bite the dust, it’ll just be Macy’s and Kohl’s left.
What it was, was football.
With NFL Rams gone, St. Louis still stuck with stadium debt
by Robin Respaut
Feb 3 The National Football League’s Rams left behind more than bitterness when the team ditched St. Louis for Los Angeles last month - it left a stadium saddled with about $144 million in debt and maintenance costs.
Taxpayers will now shoulder the remaining payments for the Edward Jones Dome with only the help of revenue from tractor pulls, volleyball tournaments, concerts and the like.
St. Louis Board of Aldermen President Lewis Reed has asked the NFL to help pay off the stadium, but so far has gotten no response.
“The fans are being left holding the bag,” Reed said. “I think they should factor that into the total cost of the move.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/sports-nfl-stadiums-insight-pix-graphics-idUSL2N15I05B
Trump would have done a better deal for the city.
He would have put his name on the now-doomed condos next door to it.
Instead his name is written on the bare walls of your empty skull.
“The fans are being left holding the bag,” Reed said. “I think they should factor that into the total cost of the move.”
Why does he hate capitalism?
And boyz and girlz…..more unsettling information from the interwebs…..
this….
http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/96626/mass-layoffs-return-vengeance
this….
http://rinf.com/alt-news/latest-news/1-million-us-face-food-stamps-cutoff/
this….
http://www.wsj.com/articles/irs-experiencing-computer-failure-across-several-systems-1454542333?mod=e2tw
and this…..
https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/842
with attending comment from world and everything in it….
“If taken at face value and believed, why would Wells Fargo be doing this? What “emergency” could take place that might cause people to swarm to a bank in such numbers that they would have to lock the bank and only allow three customers in at a time?
A bank collapse? An economic collapse? a Currency collapse?
None of these things would be good and if the claims above are true, it is a dangerous signal to the rest of us to get some money out to tie-us-over for a month or so in the event everything shuts down.
In a banking emergency, CREDIT AND DEBIT CARDS WILL NOT WORK. ATM’s will not work. Banks will be closed so that you cannot even enter your own safe deposit box.
Do you have enough cash money on-hand to get through for a couple weeks operating solely on cash? If not, you’d better get that taken care of — fast.”
Just talked to a guy who has a wife and four kids, he pays $2,500 a month out of his pocket for his company provided health insurance. Not sure how much his company pays.
Forward!
Not sure how much his company pays
Sounds like they pay nothing, and he’s paying his boss’s family bill too.
That sounds like one heck of a Cadillac plan.
Socialized medicine isn’t “free”, but there is no other country in the world where costs anywhere close to what it costs here.
When I was in the UK last year I had fun mentioning to people how much healthcare costs in the USA. They thought I was joking.
I pay for the coverage of a “Bronze” high deductible plan for one individual. It’s $500+ per month.
No Cadillac there.
Gotta love it. You pay $6000+ a year for “insurance” that pays nothing until you’ve paid the huge ($5000?) deductible. That premium is more than what my Euro relatives pay for their families, and they have no copays or deductibles.
If it’s so wonderful over there, everyone would live there.
Hint: Europes economy is wholly subsidized by the US.
He can thank attorneys.
You know it’s bad when Shkreli looks like less of a horse’s arse than members of Congress.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/02/04/martin-shkreli-congressional-testimony-turing-pharmaceuticals-valeant-fda-drug-prices/79808004/
And then he sends out this tweet:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-04/shkreli-declares-war-congress-moments-after-pleading-fifth-he-calls-reps-imbeciles
Ouch! That’s gonna leave a mark.
headline over @ cnbc today
No recession, just feels like one. WTF?
Donald Trump. A superb statesman with a squad of sexy strumpets.
Post the pic. Makes me proud to be an American.
Now that’s a great idea. Check out Mr. Trump and his sexy strumpets.
http://goo.gl/lGP20o
and THAT is how you bring peace to the planet.
Get what you can get for your house today because it’s going to be less tomorrow for decades to come.
Denver, CO Housing Prices Crater 5% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/denver-co-80231/home-values/
MR DAY LATE AND A DOLLAR SHORT
Falling housing prices Poet. Falling housing prices.
After a 7 year bull run you would expect a little pullback. I would expect a stock crash before a housing crash.
I can see places where there are bubbles like san fran and san diego coming down a lot.
Some places haven’t seen major price increases like last time.
A home is where u hang your at .
And they have a very long way to fall.
Remember….. Current asking prices of resale housing are 300% higher than long term trend.
U R PEDDLING ECONOMIC FICTION DANIEL SON
Falling housing prices are living in your empty skull, rent free Poet.
Hmmmm…..so here we have Government Motors reporting big earnings - BUT…..whatever happened to the debt due to Obama’s bailout via the taxpayers (and yes MikeyMight and others that would be you too!)in the midst of this.
Forward!!!!
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2016/02/03/gm-posts-earnings/79743110/
They paid that back a couple years ago (much to my surprise)… but don’t let that impede your frothing.
Proof please…..
last I heard they were still on the hook for over 25 billion…..
This is what I ‘froth’ about…..
This from Townhall last Feb. 2015
In his 2014 end of the year press conference, President Obama claimed that, “effectively today, our rescue of the auto industry is officially over. We’ve now repaid taxpayers every dime and more of what my administration committed.” (emphasis added)
And it is true: if you look at only the new money the Obama administration spent bailing out General Motors, Chrysler, and Ally Financial, taxpayers did get back “every dime” of that cash.
But that completely ignores the $17.4 billion President Bush promised General Motors and Chrysler in December 2008.
If you take the entire Troubled Asset Relief Program bailout into account, taxpayers spent a total of $79.7 billion on the auto bailout, received only $63.1 billion back, for a total loss of $16.6 billion.
According to the most recent quarterly TARP Special Inspector General report, released January 28, the Treasury Department sold its final 54.9 million shares of Ally Financial stock at $23.25 a share on December 19, 2014. With that sale, taxpayers were able to bring their final Ally Financial bailout recovery to $14.7 billion, which is still $2.5 billion less than the $17.2 billion that taxpayers initially spent bailing out the company.
In addition to the $2.5 billion taxpayers lost on Ally Financial, they also lost $11.2 billion on the GM bailout and $2.9 billion on the Chrysler bailout.
It did not have to be this way. Obama violated numerous bankruptcy laws when he strong-armed GM and Chrysler through bankruptcy, all to the benefit of United Auto Workers members. Non-union employees of the firms got screwed. And so did taxpayers.
According to a study by George Mason University Law School professor Todd Zywicki, the UAW subsidies forced on GM and Chrysler by Obama cost taxpayers $26.5 billion.
So it’s Bush’s handout. They paid Obama back.
The auto industry is still subsidized albeit indirectly with sub-prime loan guarantees and bundled debt purchases. Otherwise the industry would have a tough time selling their $40k sedans and $60k pickup trucks to an already over-extended middle-class.
Equality is good……..unless you are talking about the draft/Selective Service
http:/tinyurl.com/htotw4e
Here’s the deal about “equality” in the workplace (as observed in action). The “25% of officers, 15% of enlisted are women” stat is illustrative.
Women want equality FOR THE JOBS THEY WANT TO DO. Which usually entails bypassing the messy, dirty part of “starting from the ground floor and working up” phase.
Despite the odd female candidate who might be able (and want to) graduate from Ranger School, or the SEALS, I don’t see many women who want to volunteer or be drafted into the “tip if the spear” jobs.
None of this is new to anyone who has worked in corporate America for any length of time.
Of course, I’m using my own personal observations in 36 years in aviation, where the percentage of women pilots and managers is getting higher all of the time, but the number of women I’ve seen actually getting dirty and turning wrenches can be counted on one hand. (Three, to be exact).
And of those three, (one was a wrench turner, one was a lab tech, one was a “sparkie”/avionics tech) two left for “suit” jobs as soon as they got a chance to.
The next time I see a female mechanic/avionics tech working on the ramp in 10 degree weather, at 0300, trying to fix a broke-d##k airplane will be the FIRST TIME. (For the record, the -fixr encounters this issue on average once or twice/year.)
Barney Sanders is pro-debt slavery.
Be your own woman. Dont follow the politicians advice.
And a socialist.
YOUR POSTS ARE FULL OF ENTROPY LEAVE
I’m living in your skull.
Looking good! Corning Inc. GLW recently announced a hike of 1.5 cents in the quarterly dividend. The new dividend of 13.5 cents per share represents a 12.5% increase from the prior dividend of 12 cents.
The increased dividend will be paid on Mar 31, 2016, to shareholders of record as on Feb 25.
The strength of Corning’s business model is reflected in its strong cash generation capabilities and commitment to return value to shareholders. We believe continued dividend hikes will increase investors’ confidence in the stock.
Deflect, deflect, deflect.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/rice-aides-powell-also-got-classified-info-personal-emails-n511181
This leak reeks of desperation. Try to find anyone with dirt on their shoe so people might ignore the fact that you’ve been swimming in mud.
Hard money lenders are coming out of the woodwork again.
obozo putting the kabash on oil once and for all……
what an ideological f…k this guy is….
http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2016/02/obama-oil-tax-budget-000038
Memo to the morons who voted for hope ‘n change: anytime Obama slaps a new tax on any commodity, it means that YOU will pay higher prices for related goods and services.
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-seek-tax-oil-budget-proposal-203012435–business.html
Gold is signalling a breakdown in public trust and confidence in the Keynesian fraudsters running our central banks and their .1% partners in crime in “our” financial system.
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2016/02/03/gold-its-time-to-pay-attention/
One in seven ‘Muricans on food stamps in our Obama-Fed-Goldman Sachs “recovery.” How’s that hope ‘n change working out for ya, ‘Murica?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-04/welcome-recovery-1-7-americans-455-million-remain-food-stamps