Creating This New, Smaller Tsunami
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Housing experts insist that getting more millennials to buy homes in 2016 will go a long way in determining the future of the Valley’s housing market. ‘If we really want to see a healthy real estate market in Phoenix, these millennials are going to have to jump in,’ Realtor Tricia Amato said. Brandi Porter, 22, is a recent Arizona State University graduate who thinking about buying a house, especially now, with the cost of rent going up around the Valley. ‘I want to make sure I can stay here, and throwing money toward a rental seems like throwing money away,’ she said.”
“You’re scared. You purchased your dream home in Summerlin or Green Valley a few years ago and now you find yourself still underwater on your mortgage. What happened with the economic recovery? Some 22 percent of Southern Nevada homeowners have mortgages that are underwater, according to Zillow. Michelle Johnson, CEO of the Financial Guidance Center, explained another problem she is seeing with clients coming to the center for help. She said many of the unique loan products, like the 80/20 loan that allowed people to buy a home with two loans and none of their own money or home equity loans that people got when home prices were soaring, are just now coming to fruition.”
“‘I think all of those together along with the underwater is creating this new, smaller tsunami,’ Johnson said.”
“Even with the real estate market recovering, more than a quarter of all South Florida home and condominium sales in 2015 involved a distressed property. Short sales, bank-owned homes and properties in some stage of foreclosure accounted for about 27 percent of all sales last year in the tri-county region, according to RealtyTrac Inc. Judy Trudel, a real estate agent in Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties, said she’s surprised that distressed sales remain such a big part of the housing market in South Florida. ‘Nine times out of 10, you can’t even find a foreclosure,’ Trudel said.”
“During the heady years of Manhattan high-end real estate, one dirty little secret was that buying a condo in a pre-construction development was an easy way for buyers to avoid scrutiny. Amid a buying wave—like the one Manhattan saw over the past five years—not every developer was willing to rock the boat, despite potential liability. ‘It was a no-questions-asked’ environment, one prominent high-end Manhattan broker recently said.”
“This year, labourer Fan Fu and 20 or so colleagues working on the Zixia Garden apartment complex in Hebei province have not joined China’s legion of migrant workers returning home to celebrate new year with their families. Instead, they have camped in the offices of the property developer’s subcontractor, demanding almost a year’s unpaid wages and too angry and proud to go back to native towns and villages empty-handed. ‘The developer has kept using the fact that they have no money as an excuse. As of now they haven’t paid us a single penny,’ said Fan, who brought others from his home town in the western province of Sichuan to work on the apartments.”
“With China’s economy growing at its slowest in 25 years, more workers face Fan’s predicament and labour unrest is on the rise, a concern for Beijing as it seeks to avoid social unrest even as financial pressures build. According to Geoffrey Crothall of the Hong Kong-based group China Labour Bulletin, which tracks worker issues, there was a spike in protests in the last quarter of 2015. Its data show that in December and January, there were 774 labour strikes across China, from 529 in the previous two months, most of them over wage arrears.”
“At a printing factory in the western city of Chongqing, a Reuters reporter was present when a local official visited last week to make sure the boss paid his workers before the Year of the Monkey begins. The official declined to speak with Reuters, although the boss later said it was an attempt to prevent unrest. ‘That’s (unrest) what the government is most fearful of,’ said the factory owner, who did not want to be named.”
“The nation’s only listed broker’s housing price index for the fourth quarter of last year was down 4.1 percent from the same period in 2014, led by corrections in the greater Taipei area — which had seen prices rise to the extent most people could not afford to buy a property, the report said. ‘The pace of the retreat is actually more than 10 percent in Taipei, if price levels are compared with mid-2014, and challenges the popularly held belief that houses in central locations hold prices more than those in suburban and outlying areas,’ said Sinyi researcher Tseng Chin-der.”
“Perth’s surging housing supply last year added eight more properties for every one buyer, according to the Real Estate Institute of WA. ‘Overall sales to listing ratios have gone from one property being sold for every 19 listed in November 2014 to one sold for every 27 listed in November 2015,’ REIWA president Hayden Groves told the forum. ‘In theory that means buyers have eight more property options to consider when they buy.’”
“Daniel Kavishe, manager of market research at FNB Namibia, said that the volume and value index retreated on the eve of the fourth quarter 2015 as the housing market eased across the country. He added that the deeds office recorded a 40% drop in transactions year-on-year due to a slowdown in purchases in the northern and central towns. These transactions, combined with developments at the coast, pulled the median house price down to N$694 000, Kavishe said. ‘Taking a look at the last five years, we realise that Namibia’s housing market has changed considerably. Volume growth has increased by 30,5% while prices have grown by an estimated 87,8% across the board,’ he said.”
“In Windhoek those struggling to pay bonds are from Khomasdal and Katutura areas but are ironically office-based workers or semi-professionals, he said. ‘The interest rate environment in Namibia is bound to change drastically over the course of 2016 and that will not bode favourably with the already indebted consumer. Irrespective of inflation and general economic slowdown expectations for 2016, consumers will face headwinds on the back on the rise in the cost of servicing their debt. So save where possible and curb unnecessary spending,’ he said.”
“Aberdeen, a city whose prosperity was recently measured in the number of Bentleys leaving car showrooms and million pound homes in estate agents windows, now finds itself holding out the begging bowl. Once among the wealthiest cities per capita in Europe, it is relying on the sort of state handouts that would make a banker blush.”
“Stories abound of struggling businesses, from restaurants and hotels, to the bookies and even the discount stores. The 70% fall in the oil price over 18 months has ripped a massive hole in the economy and few cities as self-dependent as Aberdeen could expect to bear the downturn without substantial casualties. But just how tough has life become?”
“According to the shop workers, restaurateurs and property people, the city is now in a state of meltdown as thousands are laid off and even those left in a job have stopped spending. There is no doubting these horror stories, but there is a danger of over-doing the tales of woe.”
“One report this weekend gave an example of a ‘former high roller’ turning up at a food bank in a Porsche clutching a welfare reform grant from the local authority. Seriously? If the story is true, this guy had the temerity to drive to a food bank in a Porsche and expect a carrier bag of free groceries? Mmm… I’d like to have a word with him and find out how he could afford a Porsche - even if he does have to hand it back - but doesn’t have enough money in the bank from his high-earning days to feed himself and his family.”
‘about 27 percent of all sales last year in the tri-county region…‘Nine times out of 10, you can’t even find a foreclosure’
“This is a property that sat for almost ten years, approximately 9.5 years” Assemblyman Mickey Kearns said. “It was an incomplete foreclosure. HSBC walked away from this property, walked away from this beautiful community.”
‘Kearns says this home at 290 Germania in South Buffalo is just another example of the neglect of banks that abandoned these so-called “zombie properties,” leaving them in limbo for years.’
‘Kearns launched his Shame Campaign against the banks last year to call attention to the problem. Now he has a proposal to help bring these houses back to life.’
“We’re in the process of working with Habitat for Humanity to get people into a nice home,” Kearns said. “We’re hopeful that the banks with surplus properties as we know would consider donating them to non-for profits like Habitat and good organizations that can put families into these homes.”
“It’s a good idea. I mean my idea is to put people back in these homes. A lot of these homes they could be lived in again,” community and housing activist Arthur Robinson said. For years, Robinson has been working on cleaning up and rehabilitating these abandoned houses. He thinks Kearns’ plan would be a win-win for the community and the banks.’
“The banks, if they know that the people are not gonna come and pay the mortgage, either auction off the mortgages or get somebody in them. Don’t let them sit empty where the thieves can get in. They just deteriorate to where they’re just unlivable,” said Robinson.’
‘There isn’t much that can surprise Code Enforcement and Community Service Officer Charles Anderson. “Every now and then I’ll get an eyebrow raise,” Anderson said on a recent tour of the city neighborhoods.’
‘Anderson said Code Enforcement staff have fielded numerous complaints of blighted, abandoned homes in the Klamath Basin for the city of Klamath Falls Police Department.The feedback led him to approach council members last Tuesday about finding more efficient solutions to the plight of local blight.’
‘Anderson said there are 37 properties in Klamath Falls documented as blighted and in a state of disrepair. He is encouraging the city to beef up city codes to include reintstatement of foreclosure procedures and/or a lender registry of abandoned and vacant properties.’
“Essentially our ‘modus operandi’ has been to board these places up and it’s definitely not helping. It keeps the people who are shooting methamphetamine out of the house, but it’s also affecting property values. We’ve considered the boarded up properties to be the lesser of two evils.”
‘Anderson floated the concept to require banks and lenders to register vacant properties with the city. Code Enforcement would maintain a list of the properties, and banks and lenders would be required to provide the property site address as well as contact information for the property owner and the bank or lender.’
“Some of them, they’re not habitable,” said City Manager Nathan Cherpeski, adding he agreed more tools are needed to promote action. “If you can foreclose on something that has some structural integrity … somebody could actually occupy it,” he said.’
‘The last property foreclosed on by the city was in 2004, Anderson said.’
‘Officials with the Putnam County Housing Corporation (PCHC), a private, not-for-profit housing corporation, say homeowners facing foreclosure are often slow to react, ashamed to find they are at risk of losing their homes.’
‘Pat Synan, a foreclosure prevention specialist with PCHC, said said one thing that put homeowners in fiscal dire straits is refinancing and home equity loans.’
“They took out lines of credit and now many of these mortgages are about to reset,” he explained. “First they were only paying interest on the loan. But then it resets and they have to start paying the principal. The monthly payment jumps for about $200 to $1,500 and they can’t keep up.”
‘Diaz said the reason why foreclosure rates are so high in Putnam County is because there is a large number of construction workers in the area who have been hit hard due to the lack of new building starts. “A lot of our clients are in the construction business and after a few years have gone by [without much business] they stop paying their mortgage,” she said.’
‘Additionally, high taxes continue to plague homeowners here. “Taxes are high here and property values have dropped dramatically,” Chipman said. “At the height of the housing market they took out the equity [through a loan] and now they owe more than their home is worth.”
‘Diaz said the reason why foreclosure rates are so high in Putnam County is because there is a large number of construction workers in the area who have been hit hard due to the lack of new building starts. “A lot of our clients are in the construction business and after a few years have gone by [without much business] they stop paying their mortgage,” she said.’
A debt fueled cycle that always ends in falling prices and massive excess housing inventory.
Northeast Florida lacking in homes for sale
‘Brad Officer, Realtor with RE/Max Specialists, said he sees it all the time. “When someone comes in and says ‘This is the kind of house I’m looking for,’ normally we can show them five or six that would come close to matching that,” he said. “Now it’s two or three. One needs work, one is overpriced and one is in the ballpark. The choices are incredibly limited. It’s crazy.”
‘During the boom of a decade or more ago, builders were building homes that hadn’t been bought. They’re referred to as spec homes because the builder is speculating that buyers would come. “In the early 2000s, you could build anything and people would buy it,” said Todd Holder, division president with KB Home. “But that’s not the case anymore.”
‘At Toll Brothers, Division Vice President Steve Merten said that his company will start homes on spec, but rarely finish them. “People want to personalize them, to select the features,” he said. “So if we start a home that isn’t bought, we’ll slow down around when the drywall is put in. “If we take it all the way to the end, it sits longer on the shelf.”
‘But with homes in such demand, prices are not skyrocketing. The median sales price went up 7.7 percent to $170,000 in the past year.’
“That’s what I keep saying,” Officer said. “Why not 15 percent?”
‘He gave the example of a home that was listed at $230,000, and he found a buyer at that price. But the home was appraised at only $215,000, which reduced what the bank would lend.’
“The buyer either had to pay the difference in cash or the seller had to drop the price,” he said. “The seller did drop, but sales like that force the median sale price down.”
‘But Jacksonville is actually seeing prices increase faster than much of the country. Nationally, the median price went up 5.9 percent from 2013 to 2014. Adding into all that, Officer said, is that there’s still a hangover from the boom and bust because prices went so high and then so low.’
“You may have someone in a three-bedroom, two-bath,” Officer said, “but now they have another kid and need to go to a four-bedroom. But they’re stuck in the three-bedroom because it’s still not worth what they paid for it 10 years ago.”
‘The last property foreclosed on by the city was in 2004, Anderson said.’
There is your problem right there. Cities _could_ be citing these homes for violations, running up a tab in liens, and eventually foreclose based on these liens. But they aren’t. They _could_ be helping move these houses through the process and back into the hands of a new occupant, thus keeping houses occupied in the neighborhoods within their city limits—and they aren’t. Shame on the cities, IMO.
Why does a foreclosure occur?
Inflated price.
How is it the price is inflated?
Fraud.
How many of these toxic mortgages were written in the last 5 years? 10 million? 20 million?
u really are confused
Collapsing housing demand az_donk. Collapsing housing demand.
I’ve always liked Fridays and Desk Clearing Time just makes them even more interesting. The news from around the world shows many housing markets are adjusting downward. I am off to Australia in April, so I’ll be able to see their market first hand. I’ll post a Friday Fishwrap Report for the HBB while I’m there.
With a grain of salt Jingle_Fraud……. a tiny grain of salt.
Ignore him JM. I always appreciate boots-on-the-ground stories. Speaking of which, I hope Carl is doing okay (in China?).
lol@donk
You haven’t the intestinal fortitude to ignore. But make no mistake we’re not going anywhere.
Ignore him JM ??
Precisely…..
Nor do you Dave.
Thanks Oxy, I like them too, which is why I try to deliver them to you every now and then. It beats calling out 25M houses that don’t exist! HA!
Boots on the ground data Jingle_Fraud. Boots on the ground data my friend.
Sacramento, CA Housing Prices Crater 7% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/west-sacramento-ca/home-values/
Where are you headed? It’s been awhile, but I could recommend a couple of watering holes. It is not an abstemious country, and I mean that in a good way. I’ve never been bought so many alcoholic beverages in my life.
We are still planning, but we have friends in Melbourne and Tasmania, so we will start there. It is a HUGE country.
Curses …
“According to a recent study by Bank of America:
“94 percent of millennials aren’t comfortable going into debt;
88 percent avoid risky investments;
79 percent don’t want to dip into their savings at this point in their lives.”
In this case our educational system has failed miserably.
Good for the Millenials! I know everyone loves to demean their younger generation, but seriously good for them!
White Plains, NY Housing Market Craters; Prices Plummet 7% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/white-plains-ny/home-values/
Was the housing crash so erased from people’s memory that a 7% YoY decline is characterized as a “plummet”?
Seems that way.
“Four Days After Predicting Oil Will Double, T. Boone Pickens Sells All Oil Holdings”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-04/four-days-after-predicting-oil-will-double-t-boone-pickens-sells-all-oil-holdings
Nothing cures poverty and accelerates the economy like falling energy prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.
‘Ethiopia: Access‘ Drama Continues’
‘The cracks in his voice resonate with the deep emotional pressure he tries to communicate. “My daughter got divorced because of Access,” Deboch Belay said. Won over by Access Real Estate’s impressive sales pitch that had literally come knocking at his door, he had convinced his daughter and son-in-law, who lived in England, to dish out two million Birr from their savings and buy one unit in Access’ Europa Site.’
“Her ex-husband thought I had swindled them,” he said. “Not only has their investment gone to waste, but now, she has been forced into raising my grandson alone.”
‘Deboch and his daughter’s story is but one of similar stories that can be told by 2,703 homebuyers. Customers had been wooed by assurances of delivery times as short as six months, with money-back guarantees and a promise of 5,000Br for each month of delay. Yet, eight years after the company’s formation and six years after it started operations, Access Real Estate (ARE) has yet to deliver a single unit from any of the numerous sites it claims to have been developing.’
‘Fantaye Makonnen, 75, was one of Access’s customers that demanded a refund. She is a widowed retiree who sold her house around Bole Airport five years ago and bought two apartment units from Access’s Ayat East View Site. She had met Ermias during the process, and he talked her into buying a third. “I’m telling you what I would tell my mother,” she recalled him saying.’
‘While the sale had gained her 3.5 million Br, the purchases, two of which were paid in full and the other-in half, cost her 1.5 million Br. She has spent the ensuing four years in rented housing. Prices, however, are sending her farther and farther from the city centre. Her current address, south-east of the Ayat Roundabout, costs a 40 Br bajaj ride from her home to the roundabout from where one can get a taxi.’
“I have worked for 40 years, and have enough to live on,” she said, but conceded that she could not keep paying rent.’
He he…
‘he talked her into buying a third’
Take a look on the Google at some of the ridiculous houses that Access is building. McMansions, in Addis Adaba. Yeah, the locals can afford those.
It’s like a disease spreading around the world, with central banks as the transmission vector rather than mosquitoes, bats or rodents.
http://tinyurl.com/z4hc6o4
If you look at the lower picture, you’ll see the garage doors are half opened.
If they don’t have electric openers, then that is the proper place where, if you have the springs adjusted properly, that the door is supposed to self-balance.
snake charmer: Take a look on the Google at some of the ridiculous houses that Access is building. McMansions, in Addis Adaba. Yeah, the locals can afford those.
It’s due to the financialization of housing. Houses have become speculative assets.
THE PROBLEM is that people don’t understand why a speculative asset, be it purely virtual like a stock, or a hybrid physical-virtual object like a house, goes up in price.
The reason speculative assets go up in price is because more money is chasing a limited pool of objects. It’s like a ponzi scheme, in which new money pays off existing members. The increase in the price of the speculative asset sets up a positive feedback loop, luring in yet more money, driving up prices yet higher.
There can obviously exist markets which are relatively stable, driven by primarily by consumption demand with limited speculative demand. However, when speculative (”Hope”) demand dominates, it’s easy to get a bubble.
The problem with houses globally, is that typically, people speculate in houses with debt. Day traders don’t need to go into debt to speculate in stocks.
And that’s where central banks come in, indemnifying banks. I posted the other day, Elizabeth Duke’s famous story about the old man buying love, from the 2009 Fed transcripts, and the need to put a floor under house prices. We wonder, well, why not let the bad lenders take their lumps, prosecute the fraudulent ones. There are a couple of reasons for it: 1) It might deleteriously affect society as a whole (which has still happened) and 2) The conflicts of interest are mind boggling.
And like I say, these speculative markets are like ponzi schemes, in that they keep going up only as long are more money is being pulled in.
And when you have a speculative market based on debt, in which governments and central banks indemnify the lending institutions but do not penalize the individuals making these decisions in any way - the speculation can continue.
” It’s like a ponzi scheme, in which new money pays off existing members.”
Existing members get their entire price when they sell out but new members don’t have to pay the entire price when they buy in; New members only need to COMMIT themselves to paying the entire price when they buy in.
And this, this commitment to buying instead of actually buying, is what allows prices to rise as high as they do. There is no way prices could rise as high as they do (in most cases) if the entire price was required to be paid by the buyer on the day of the sale.
‘Already reeling due to the economic slowdown, the property market is bracing itself to get over the initial ‘shock’ of the latest decision by Ministry of Housing and Muscat Municipality to raise the land registration and lease agreement fees from three per cent to five per cent.’
“Changes to the existing tax regime in Oman are expected to take many by surprise, but it is not totally unexpected, given the government’s austerity drive in the face of a collapse in oil prices,” Philip Paul, head of Cluttons Oman, told Muscat Daily.’
“Unfortunately, for the property market, the sector is already reeling from weakness due to falling rents and occupancy levels across the board. We would anticipate that many real estate investors will review their plans given the immediate impact on returns,” he said.’
‘Shadi Amoorah, manager – sales and leasing, Salman Properties, said that it is a slowdown period for the sector. “We need to be patient and wait for market conditions to get better. This fees increase is going to be a burden on the landlords and immediately affect their expenses.”
‘He agreed with Jalil that rents will not go up as they are controlled by market dynamics. “Rentals are controlled by demand and supply pressure and currently there is an over supply.”
One of many end results of grossly inflated prices.
“Welcome To The Recovery: 1 In 7 Americans (45.5 Million) Remain On Food Stamps”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-04/welcome-recovery-1-7-americans-455-million-remain-food-stamps
‘Prices of mid-range condominium units are expected to slow down because of oversupply, online real estate portal Lamudi said in a report on the Philippine real estate market.’
“A bit of a slowdown in prices for mid-range residential condominium is clearly expected, because of the glut of supply coming into the market,” Jacqueline van den Ende, Managing Director of Lamudi Philippines, said in a news briefing.’
‘Van den Ende pointed out the expectation is “not necessarily a decline or a bubble but just a slowdown in investor interest.” “There are relatively high vacancy rates in these kind of condominiums that will put pressure on the rental rates,” she said.’
‘Real estate projects launched in 2011 to 2012 are now coming into the market, flooding it with low- to mid-range supply, she added.’
‘The luxury residential market in London has been a one-way bet for developers, speculators and – to a lesser extent – contractors for years now. Prices have soared fuelled by foreign investment and a bullish property market in the capital. But worrying signs are starting to emerge of over-supply in London.’
‘The specific problem is the number of £500,000+ apartments being built in large tower blocks. Areas like Battersea and Nine Elms on the south bank of the Thames are saturated with similar developments. While other pockets like Aldgate in east London have a huge concentration of look-a-like towers.’
‘Things were rosy for everyone involved on sites while buyers were queuing round the block to invest in the London market. But a glance around sites like Rightmove reveals a glut of unsold new flats and speculators looking to offload their investments. There are thousands of flats for sale – most priced at £1m+ for an average looking two bedder in a standard block.’
‘The market has the whiff of a price correction and property experts are waiting for the first developer to run into trouble and send prices spiraling downwards. The London luxury market has been a good friend to contractors providing a steady stream of work. But firms are now getting wary of pricing jobs as doubts grow about a finite number of buyers at current values.’
‘A report by consultants Property Vision estimates more than 54,000 homes costing at least £1m are planned for London over the next few years. Many are luxury high-rise flats aimed at foreign speculators.’
‘Once a market turns it often takes everyone by surprise how quickly things move.’
‘In a city that saw demand propel property prices to a record last year, the estimate that transactions reached a 25 year-low in Hong Kong shows how quickly sentiment has turned.’
‘Home prices have slumped almost 10 percent since September and monthly sales in January fell to the lowest since at least 1991, according to Centaline Property Agency Ltd. Amid a spike in flexible mortgage rates this month and anemic demand for new developments, the low transactions volume for January is the latest evidence that prices have further to fall.’
“The danger is that when sentiment turns negative, it’s very hard to turn things around,” Michael Spencer, Deutsche Bank AG’s Hong Kong-based Asian chief economist, said in a telephone interview. “Developers realize they missed the best opportunity to sell.”
‘it often takes everyone by surprise how quickly things move’
‘how quickly sentiment has turned’
Hong Kong, London.
“‘it often takes everyone by surprise how quickly things move’”
“‘how quickly sentiment has turned’”
Which suddenly leaves a lot of people (and a lot of debt) … stranded.
(Marooned? Would the word maroon work better than the word stranded?)
What A Maroon!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_Kh7nLplWo
‘demanding almost a year’s unpaid wages and too angry and proud to go back to native towns and villages empty-handed. ‘The developer has kept using the fact that they have no money as an excuse. As of now they haven’t paid us a single penny’
‘in December and January, there were 774 labour strikes across China, from 529 in the previous two months, most of them over wage arrears…‘That’s (unrest) what the government is most fearful of’
Wow Dan, I’m surprised. With 10% growth and a couple hundred million people moving in, I would have thought they could at least meet the payroll.
‘The developer has kept using the fact that they have no money as an excuse’
Well, to be fair Fan, that is a pretty good excuse. You want the boss to reach into his pockets and hand you lint? The question could be, why ARE YOU STILL SHOWING UP FOR WORK?
Read on:
‘As travel ramped up ahead of the holiday, beginning on Sunday, it was not only construction workers who prepared to celebrate with less money in their pockets. An online survey by the job recruitment company Zhilian Zhaopin said two-thirds of more than 10,000 white-collar workers it surveyed were not expecting Lunar New Year bonuses.’
‘In Dongguan, a city in the southern province of Guangdong known as a manufacturing hub, some factories sit idle behind locked, rusty gates, with advertisements pasted on their walls seeking new tenants. Some of those still in business were withholding bonuses until after the Lunar New Year, workers, factory owners and recruiters interviewed by Reuters said.’
‘Brothers Zhang Guantian, 23, and Zhang Guanzhou, 21, quit temporary, hourly paid jobs at two plants, one making earphones, the other computer cables, to go home for the holiday. “It’s hard to find a permanent job now,” said the elder Zhang, while waiting for a bus with two large suitcases.’
‘Still, he is hopeful of finding another job when he comes back to Dongguan in mid-February. “My aim is to find a permanent job after Chinese New Year, something I like. But it will be difficult.”
The question could be, why ARE YOU STILL SHOWING UP FOR WORK?
I think this might be the clue: “permanent job”. I don’t know much about Chinese labor laws, but I’m guessing that “permanent” employees have some perks (as opposed to temps), like being guaranteed a large payout in the case of a layoff. Of course, if there is no money in the firm’s coffers, then that becomes a worthless right/perk. And after a year of no pay, it should be more than obvious to those workers that they are wasting their time. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was money to pay them, but it was embezzled by the company’s managers and is now safely residing in a foreign bank, carefully laundered away or was perhaps used to purchase real estate in Vancouver or Sidney.
This does raise the question of why is it so hard to find a “permanent job” when there is allegedly 7% growth.
Brothers Zhang, 23, and Zhang, 21
“Boys we had two years to think of a different name and we were stumped.”
Even worse, Zhang is the name of both the parents.
Zhang is their surname, you maroons. The name listed second is their given name - you know, like how they do it in most Asian countries?
Zhang is their surname, you maroons. The name listed second is their given name - you know, like how they do it in most Asian countries?
I’m surprised they didn’t know it was their surname, but the fact is that the article is in English and therefore the names should have been written English style, with the surname last, not first.
therefore the names should have been written English style
Nope. Write as THEY use ‘em.
Nope. Write as THEY use ‘em.
This is wrong. If they want to do that they should just use Chinese characters and write in Chinese…
Write as THEY use ‘em.
We should also write Zhong Guo, I mean 中国 or wait, I mean 中國, instead of China, too, right? Write it as THEY do? No, I don’t think so.
In fact the choice is completely arbitrary.
Back when the US press started routinely using Japanese names, they decided to go with given-name first, as in English. That’s how you still see Japanese names written, even though in Japanese they say names surname first.
It was a couple more decades before Chinese names would routinely appear in US periodicals, and by then they decided to go with surname first, as in the native language.
So we’re in this weird state where Chinese names are given surname first, and Japanese names are given-name first, even though in both those countries it’s surname first.
There is one name that is universal around the globe.
Cratering Housing
Zhang 1 and Zhang 2,
Oh how they wish they had something to do!
Too cold to go out, too broke with no pay,
So they started a protest on that cold, cold wet day!
Jingle_Fraud
Awesome.
“At a printing factory in the western city of Chongqing, a Reuters reporter was present when a local official visited last week to make sure the boss paid his workers before the Year of the Monkey begins. The official declined to speak with Reuters, although the boss later said it was an attempt to prevent unrest. ‘That’s (unrest) what the government is most fearful of,’ said the factory owner, who did not want to be named.”
________________________________/
I’m sure the local official owns property in Vancouver or Sydney, for which he paid cash. The presence of political figures only works when they have moral credibility.
No one continues to show up to work for a year without being paid due to it being hard to find a “permanent job”.
If you’re not being paid, you don’t have a job. It’s just volunteer work.
Probably it’s a sense of shame and not wanting to lose face combined with assuming the government will somehow make it right.
Keep in mind that we don’t have “permanent jobs” in the US. In many countries it can be next to impossible to fire “permanent” employees. It is likely that workers would hang around if they had reason to believe that they would eventually get paid. But waiting 12 months seems a bit optimistic.
People in China quit jobs because it’s New Year’s and the want to travel to see family. So they just quit. I don’t think people are working without being paid for 12 months due to optimism.
LinkedIn Corporation (LNKD) -NYSE
115.11 Down 77.17(40.13%) 9:56AM EST
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=LNKD&ql=1
EPS (ttm): -1.17
‘LinkedIn has been spending heavily on expansion by buying companies, hiring sales personnel and growing outside the United States, but is now facing pressure in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific due to macro-economic issues.’
“Given those macro concerns and LinkedIn’s recent execution issues, we expect investors will demand financial outperformance before there is meaningful recovery in LNKD’s multiple,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a client note.’
‘LinkedIn shares have lost nearly a quarter of their value in the last three months.’
And another quarter in the past half hour.
When I posted that the market cap was just over $15 billion, now it’s just over $14 billion.
Headquarters
2029 Stierlin Court Mountain View, CA 94043 United States
I can hear the calls going out to the UHS now. “Sell that shack, pronto!”
Oh dear, three minutes later and it’s $13.7, no $13.6 B.
You might want to put that trip to Australia on hold JM:
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -Nasdaq
500.71 Down 35.55(6.63%) 2:41PM EST
Somebody might wish they had focused on making a dime here and there.
P/E (ttm): 400.67
Bye-bye Internet bubble 2.0
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/columnist/shinal/2016/02/05/bye-bye-internet-bubble-20/79887644/
The women all control their men
With razors and with wrists
And the princess squeezes grape juice
On a torrid bloody kiss
What will you be wearing there
The lion or the raven hair?
The flesh will all be tearing
But the tail will be my own
In the colosseum tonight
This one’s for the balcony
And this one’s for the floor
As the senators decapitate
The presidential whore
The bald headed senators
Are splashing in the blood
The dogs are having someone
Who is screaming in the mud
In the colosseum tonight
Now it’s raining and it’s pouring
On the pillaging and goring
The constable is swinging
From the chains
For the dead there is no story
No memory no blame
Their families shout blue murder
But tomorrow it’s the same
In the colosseum
A slowly acting poison
Will be given to the favorite one
The dark horse will bring glory
To the jailer and his men
It’s always much more sporting
When there’s families in the pit
And the madness of the crowd
Is an epileptic fit
In the colosseum
No justice here, no liberty
No reason, no blame
There’s no cause to taint the sweetest taste of blood
And greetings from the nation
As we shake the hands of time
They’re taking their ovations
The vultures stay behind
In the colosseum, in the colosseum
In the colosseum tonight
Yes, I noticed the Australian $ is strengthening, but only a little bit. I have no exposure to tech stocks, so no problem there. I like dividends and am buying energy.
Australia is still a go. The kangaroos don’t care about the NASDAQ!
‘Even the postponement of the next global recession will do little to assuage fears that the world could find itself defenceless against another round of mania, panics or crashes.’
‘Two of the world’s three major central banks have slashed interest rates in to negative territory. Monetary tools will need to be deployed more creatively, perhaps going as far as injecting stimulus directly into the veins of the economy.’
‘Should the world manage to ride out the perfect storm of 2016, next time round, answers will be difficult to find.’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12138466/when-is-the-next-financial-crash-coming-oil-prices-markets-recession.html
‘I have no exposure to tech stocks, so no problem there’
If you own property in California, you have exposure to tech stocks. If tech stocks are blowing up, California real estate is going to tank. If California real estate tanks, the entire mortgage market will be rocked via the GSE’s and FHA. This is but one of the connected threads we are facing.
Great point. I am selling some real estate this year. Mostly lots I bought from banks in 2010 & 2011. The houses have good cash flow and the debt is being retired in short order. Maybe I should sell a couple…….hmmm. See why I love this Blog?
You can’t keep your stories straight Jingle_Fraud.
‘Call them the invisible victims of the housing collapse: The millions of homeowners who’ve spent nearly a decade dutifully making mortgage payments on homes worth less than the balance of their loans. Known as “being under water,” many in this crowd were never in danger of losing their home. But that doesn’t mean they didn’t suffer.’
‘Tiffany Doyle, 44, was one of them. She bought her two-bedroom townhouse outside Seattle for a very reasonable $289,000, well within her means. But her timing was terrible. She pulled the trigger in 2007; very near the market’s peak. When the recession hit, her townhouse’s value plunged all the way to an estimated $220,000.’
‘You might think as long as Doyle could keep making payments on the mortgage everything would be fine. Wrong. After the bubble burst, her company was acquired by a New York-based firm. To get ahead — or at least to feel secure in her position — she’d have to relocate to New York. But that wasn’t possible.’
“I could not even consider moving,” Doyle said. If she did, she would have lost much of her life savings paying off the balance of her loan after her townhouse sold. Meanwhile, she also knew declining the move might put her future prospects with the firm at risk. “I remember feeling trapped. I thought I was making a move towards a better financial stability and then the market dropped out from under me.”
‘At the end of 2015, there were 6.4 million U.S. homes at least 25% under water. That’s roughly 11.5% of all homeowners with a mortgage. While that sounds like a lot, it’s down from 7.1 million at the end of 2014 — 12.7% of all homeowners with a mortgage — and down from 18.8% at the end of 2013.’
‘Doyle fits this profile neatly. Her townhouse is now worth an estimated $267,000 — still well below what she paid, but since she’s made several years of payments, she’s reasonably close to break-even. In other words, her mortgage is no longer a financial anchor around her neck.’
“It was only a few months ago when I saw the value of my house start going up, and I did immediately feel more free and a huge sense of relief,” she said.’
Here’s the problem Tiffany: the only way you get the anchor off your neck is if someone else puts it around theirs.
“victims…She bought her two-bedroom townhouse outside Seattle for a very reasonable $289,000, well within her means.”
“I did immediately feel more free…”
Made “free” by Zillow, but still in the prison cell.
“she’s reasonably close to break-even”
Based only on what the townhouse is worth now? Lets tally up 9 years of property taxes, insurance, and maintenance plunging this homedebtor back beneath the waves.
Also interest.
Also, opportunity cost.
Plus the non-monetary cost of all the worry over this whole issue.
Why, that would almost be like having to pay rent!
A completely paid off house still has monthly and annual carrying costs. The bigger and more expensive the house, the bigger the carrying costs.
In New Jersey, the property tax rate is 5.35%, so even if you don’t have a mortgage…….you still do!!!
California Jingle_Fraud…. California.
Encino, CA Housing Prices Crater 13% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/encino-los-angeles-ca/home-values/
We moved from one rental to another yesterday and in the span of 12 hours I came across three different little tidbits worth sharing.
I asked the movers we hired how business has been. They looked visibly glum and said horrible. Whereas the last two winters they claimed to be putting in 45-50 hours per week, this winter they’ve been topping out at 25 hours per week…on top of mentioning their company and done some recent layoffs.
During the move, my wife brought her car in for service and I returned the loaner they gave us early in the evening. Not only was the showroom at the dealer empty, but the lot was so full of excess inventory that it took 20+ minutes to maneuver cars to return my serviced car to me. Mind you, just this past summer when we purchased her car, the showroom was full of buyers and the inventory was scarce.
So I took my wife’s newly serviced car to Target to pick up some new garbage cans for the kitchen. I got lost in the maze of aisles with shelves that were quite literally 40% stocked. After finding the supplies I needed, there was no waiting in any checkout line.
Just curious, what part of the country? I ask because I’m not seeing the half empty shelves in my neck of the woods.
Chicago west suburbs
The burrito index is running high in the Sacramento foothills and the mall parking lots are full.
However, we are vacationing on the north coast this weekend and the VRBO house was offered at “special pricing”. It is the off season and SuperBowl weekend, so those may be factors, but this place rented for about 70% of what I expected.
Fan Fu is the new Fang Nu…..
“This year, labourer Fan Fu and 20 or so colleagues working on the Zixia Garden apartment complex in Hebei province have not joined China’s legion of migrant workers returning home to celebrate new year with their families. Instead, they have camped in the offices of the property developer’s subcontractor, demanding almost a year’s unpaid wages and too angry and proud to go back to native towns and villages empty-handed.
Knock knock knock….. Did you liquidate and pay off your debt? You’ll be glad you did.
“As Madoff Airs On TV, Two Anonymous Whistleblowers Are Pounding On The SEC’s Door Again
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-05/madoff-airs-tv-two-anonymous-whistleblowers-are-pounding-secs-door-again
“Los Angeles, CA Gas Leak Spewing Lethal Levels Of Breathable Nuclear Material”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-05/madoff-airs-tv-two-anonymous-whistleblowers-are-pounding-secs-door-again
Metro NY Gasoline Prices Crater; $1.69/Gal And Falling
http://goo.gl/fGCBLs
Losses….. that what degenerate gamblers do best. Losses.
“After Buying Back 63 Million Shares At $83, Hess Just Sold 25 Million Shares At $39″
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-06/folly-ages-after-buying-back-63-million-shares-83-hess-just-sold-25-million-shares-3
Folly indeed. They sold their retail. They sold their refining. They bought their own stock, which without them buying isn’t worth much. So they sell that too.
MBAs should get minimum wage at best.
Labor Participation Rate At Lowest Level Ever; Typical American More Likely To Be Unemployed Today Than Any Time In US History
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2016/02/Labor-Force-Participation-vs.-FF-rate.png
Strange it is The HBB has to drag the rest of the society to the truth
“Bank Of America Admits The U.S. May Already Be In A Recession”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-07/bank-america-admits-us-may-already-be-recession
its not official till goldman says so.
So, it’s been a while since my last participation in HBB. FYI, my wife and I sold our place in Tampa and moved at the height of the bubble there. Prices thereafter slid somewhere slightly north of 28% in a very desirable, centrally located area in the greater Tampa Bay Region. So, Florida is “going crazy” again? Hmm. We do miss central Florida, but will not move back. We might try northern Florida at some point. I’m getting closer to retirement and miss Tallahassee. I went to grad school there.
Roidy
P.S. Condos are still the crack cocaine of this. It has been what? Eight years? It’s going to be different this time, for sure.