Bits Bucket for February 11, 2016
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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In the background, a hoot-owl, hoots.
For the last year, I thought they vacated the area after the tree trimmers cut down all the 80 year old trees growing on the foreclosed property on the other side of the valley.
I’ve always been kind of a historical buff, as they say, and frequently considered The Housing Bubble Blog to be a historical repository for the mood and the times. [Don'tch you?] Especially while reading The Professor’s links and short commentary (and, the responses) not too mention Ben’s awesome main blog posts.
Some people say that because government records are locked up so tight, it will be difficult for future historians to determine what happened in the past. I think (if internet records are lucky enough to survive) The Housing Bubble Blog will be a treasure trove for future historians, the saddest aspect being, how people of today ignore the track record of yesterday and still think any politician will,”turn things around’ rather than make things worse, not unlike a taxpayer funded toxic load of Chloramine in your water supply.
That said, for what it’s worth, here’s my contribution ( if it sticks) to the historical record, a comment I posted on geoengineeringwatch:
The medium sized Midwestern city I live in sprayed just about every single inch of street pavement today with a liquid salt compound (whatever it is that they use) they seemed to spare no expense. The city trucks were running non-stop up and down most every lane. (Funny thing is, listening to The Nation Weather Service, there’s not even more than flurries predicted for the rest of the week, maybe light snow 24+ hours away.) Why would they do that? Normally, they do that when a mega-storm is predicted to hit that day, or an ice storm is sure to hit That day.
It just reminded me of Geo-engineering.
Especially when I got a headache and a sore throat while driving though the stuff as it dried up, turned to dust, and the wheels of the cars tossed it up into the air much like you’d encounter while driving down a dry and dusty gravel road.
I very seldom get headaches.
I wonder what the contracts for that look like? Unless payments are made by some kind of Bot, a whole group of somebodies know. [Insert bit about Rumsfeldt not being able to account for Trillions of Dollars, right before 9/11 wiped out the record keeping department on 9/11, here X].
I encountered a local today, complaining about a sinus infection. … I didn’t wonder why.
As I was reading Jon Rapopport’s articles about Zika, I kept thinking of this reoccurring theme, one that applies to pesticides, GMO’s, vaccines (and probably Geo-engineering, too): the lack of human studies and the willingness of decision makers to accept the technocrats fraudulent documentation, or flat out document-free assurances, that everything is A-ok fine, while dismissing any notion to the contrary, and even worse, pushing a lie.
Money. Money Money. And, a whole lot of greased palms.
For anyone who doubts that palms are being greased, just take for example, the housing bubble. Fraud runs rampant and regulators turn a blind eye. Examples are numerous. No one says anything. It’s just, ‘Go along, to get along’. The whole way, up and down the pike.
We have a New Tammany Hall, it’s also known as, The Power Elite. What a web they weave.
The sad thing is, too many people think politicians can or will change things or turn things around. I guess they never studied history and prefer to ignore human nature when it suits them?
What if, the only chance to turn anything around, is because of one person in a jury box saying, “No.”?
And, the Empire runs out of money.
Salt is good for your throat and respiratory system. Cold winter air isn’t. You may be making a causation/correlation mistake.
When you react an acid with a base you get a salt. There are hundreds of salts with different chemical and physical properties. Most manufacturers deny any confirmed studies how it affects the human bodies, environments etc.
As a chemical engineer and a chemist whenever I looked at msds sheets from products made by one of the larger chemical companies. There is usually a stipulation that “additional information is being gathered to determine a thresh hold level which is safe. It appears that these msds sheets have been prepared by lawyers and not research scientist. This has been going on for the last 30 plus years and no studies were being conducted.
What’s your point?
“Salt is good for your throat and respiratory system.”
Hit is above.
Can you figure out the nutty - ness of you salt in the respiratory system is good???
You mean that your statement about acids, bases, and MSDS sheets was meant to claim that salt is not in fact good for respiratory systems?
Salt is an anti-inflammatory. That’s why we gargle with salt water when we have a sore throat. It’s positive effects on the respiratory system have long been noted, it’s why people with TB, among other things, would “take the cure” near the ocean, and asthmatics and others seek therapy in salt mines.
Can sitting in a salt cave cure my asthma?
The positive effects of salt on airways were first noted in Eastern Europe in 1843 when a Polish doctor documented how salt mine workers didn’t seem to suffer from the same respiratory problems as the general population.
The theory is that salt helps reduce inflammation and mucus.
Among the 20,000 people who have visited salt cave facilities in the UK many are asthma sufferers, have sinus problems, cystic fibrosis or lung damage.
Sofia Benke, co-founder of The Salt Cave which has five branches in the UK, says: “You inhale tiny particles of salt which are small enough to penetrate deeply into the lungs. The salt loosens the mucus making it watery and also helps to reduce the inflammation making more room in the airways for you to breathe.
“One of the first things people notice is their nose runs and they cough. This is the body clearing the mucus.”
http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/423396/Can-sitting-in-a-salt-cave-cure-my-asthma
—
Kiril Kuletski, a photographer, has visited a unique treatment facility in Ukraine. This is an underground salt mine which has been used for more than forty years to treat respiratory difficulties and it has been proved to be doing this well. No walls, nothing but pure salt caves. So people come deep inside the mine to spend a night, or a few nights.
http://englishrussia.com/2014/10/28/thousand-feet-underground-salt-caves-used-for-treatment/
You Lolas seem to be experts on inhaling things.
Little knowledge of cut and paste is dangerous.
Hazards
Calcium chloride can act as an irritant by desiccating moist skin. Solid calcium chloride dissolves exothermically, and burns can result in the mouth and esophagus if it is ingested. Ingestion of concentrated solutions or solid products may cause gastrointestinal irritation or ulceration.
Other possible side effects of taking calcium chloride include:
• A chalky taste in the mouth
• Hot flashes
• Lowered blood pressure
• Loss of appetite
• Feeling sick (nausea)
• Being sick (vomiting)
• Constipation
• Stomach pain
• Feeling weak
• Mental disturbances
• Extreme thirst
• Passing a large amount of urine
• Bone pain
• Kidney stones
• Irregular heart beat
• Coma
Any of these may be a sign of overly high calcium blood levels (hypercalcemia).[26]
Calcium chloride salts also tend to contain a small amount of metals, especially aluminium.[citation needed] Over time these metals can accumulate in the body and have a toxic effect.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calcium_chloride
inhaling things
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jenkem
Other possible side effects of taking calcium chloride include:
“Taking” in your example means “ingesting” so you’re talking about something completely different than breathing salty air. Nice try, but wrong.
The Pineapples no not exactly know what the word “salt” means. None of us know what they were spreading on the road.
You dont get a virus from the cold. You get sick from cold weather keeping you inside with sick people.
“I wonder what the contracts for that look like?”
I dunno, have you ever tried looking it up?
At least on the federal side, contracts are publicly available. You can look up RFQs and bid on them, or you can look at contracts that are currently being carried out. Here are a couple examples of contracts recently awarded:
Removing Asbestos from the men’s room at Hanscom Air Force Base in Massachusetts. To A-Best Abatement for under $25K.
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=1b63239ecf582ad44a17f0c7f85f3b46&tab=core&_cview=1
Supply and deliver “certified religious goods” to the food warehouse at the Elkton Federal Prison in Ohio. You can even click on the PDF for exactly what they want. This one turned out to be a kosher food contract for cheese omelets ($28/case), cans of tuna ($67/case), ready-made spaghetti and meatball meals ($41/case), and peanut butter ($28/case).
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=37eb486d336071e02cf05fffbd1cf015&tab=core&_cview=1
I doubt that the BIG BOYZ contracts are so detailed, at least not publicly, but summaries are public. Try this as a starting point:
http://www.defense.gov/News/Contracts/Contract-View/Article/653389
Got market fear?
Marketwatch dot com
Europe Markets
European stocks knocked to lowest since 2013 as fear selling returns
By Sara Sjolin
Published: Feb 11, 2016 4:38 a.m. ET
Banks bear the brunt of the selloff again
Bloomberg
Investors flee European stocks on Thursday amid another global selloff
European stocks were sold off sharply on Thursday, tracking a wider stock-market exodus, as investors once again fretted over global economic growth and the rout in oil prices.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index (SXXP, -3.52%) slumped 4% to 302.68, setting it on track for its lowest close since Oct. 2013. A 4% drop would also mark the worst trading day since August last year, when the pan-European benchmark slid 5.3% on jitters over China.
“Nervous investors are once again heading for less riskier assets as concerns over the strength of the global recovery resurface and continued weakness in the price of oil,” said Andy McLevey, head of dealing at stockbroker Interactive Investor, in a note.
Crude oil prices (CLH6, -2.70%) slid below $27 a barrel, down 3.1%.
“With no immediate end in sight, the volatility of late is set to continue, which may provide opportunity for brave investors, however, many may choose to sit on the sidelines until a little calm is restored,” McLevey added.
…
No. Excited. There are going to be some nice bargains to buy soon.
Notice of Foreclosure already Jingle_Fraud?
Be careful what you wish for. Debt donkeys are going to get crushed by their own wagons.
“There are going to be some nice bargains to buy soon.”
“Soon”. Define soon.
I agree that there will be some nice bargains but I do not agree that it will be soon.
IMO “soon” = years.
Are you speaking of housing in particular? Because it seems like lots of other assets are already at fire sale prices.
No, stocks.
Your opening question was “Got market fear?” and I assumed you were referring to stocks. But, I guess not.
Try stocks in the commodities sector.
Arco gas in Salinas: station A: $2.09 gal station B: $2.05 gal
station C: $1.99 gal
Try gold, silver, and platinum group metals stocks.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-11/markets-around-world-are-crashing-gold-soars
Here are some charts of various sectors:
http://finviz.com/groups.ashx?g=sector&v=410&o=name
The strength of commodity prices are reflected in the Basic Materials sector but most of the other sectors (except utilities) are also taking it in the shorts.
These are one-year charts but I believe they show the beginning of a longer-term trend.
Time will tell.
Arco gas in Salinas: station A: $2.09 gal station B: $2.05 gal
station C: $1.99 gal
Saw $1.42 in Longmont this morning.
The American psyche has little staying power for anything, ergo bargains will be bargains (even commodities) only when people lose interest.
Soon = next couple of years. I sold 50% of my stocks in 2015, half in Jan, half in June. I have been mostly sitting on the sidelines.
I will buy oil now. I will start with FENY or FSENX or VDE this weekend. Probably put $100k in these over the next 6 months, $10k at a time.
I am selling vacant land, holding cash flowing real estate and getting set up to buy stock when it drops more.
Now it’s worthless dirt?
lol@jingle_fraud
“Nice bargains”
Sold some gold in 2010 because it was priced too high relative to stocks. I used the proceeds to buy stock funds and ASGN cheap. For the last two years gold has been priced too low relative to stocks. I sold all my ASGN and sold a good amount of some stock funds the last two years and bought more gold, platinum, Bitcoin. I will be selling gold again at some point, I think within five years, and use the proceeds to buy stocks.
Sold some gold in 2010 because it was priced too high relative to stocks.
What’s your methodology for concluding that gold is priced too high or too low relative to stocks?
First, I needed the money. In early 2009 I would have sold gold but did not need money. Stocks were 50% of their all time high and that is my “back up the truck ” criteria for buying stocks. Higher taxes and the threat of confiscation of 401ks dampen my sentiment for stocks though. I think a 50% or even 60% stock pullback is likely from last year’s peak. I would sell some of my metals if my holdings are over ten percent of my net worth and stocks are bargains.
“Higher taxes and the threat of confiscation of 401ks dampen my sentiment for stocks though.”
If the higher powers get into cofiscatory mode, what makes you believe they won’t shake down your gold and bitcoin holdings?
like golf, no one under 40 is interested in gold.
If it’s at all like last time around it takes 4-5 years to reach those “bargains”… And even when they were considered “bargains” the price was still high.
Does “last time around” refer to housing? Housing is much slower than stocks or commodities.
“Got market fear?”
Not at all and thanks to HBB. Cashed out all of it in August 2015.
I do have popcorn, caramel flavor.
Real tasty
Good man. Now go the next step and make sure you are stocked up on life’s essentials for when our financial house of cards implodes.
http://survivalcache.com/37-things-you-should-stock-but-probably-arent/
Sweet!
Got market fear?’
yea its starting I’m getting inquiries usually nobody cares but my ex co-workers in AZ remember how I side stepped the housing crash.
I don’t know but can guess..
Now its a commodity crash with oil as the falling star all caused by too much cheap money. Doubt they will bail out oil though so this crash may stick ?
And with trump and Sanders, two of the same kind of not-connected-politician leading, it tells me the voting public is ready to cut the Gordian knot, not good for investing , no not at all.
could get rough very rough
Are you speaking of housing in particular?”
I think housing will hold up better than stocks, maybe much better.
look at the Chinese for example selling fake stock wealth and converting to tangible assets.
I seem to recall that happened after the dot com bust.
you know rise repeat
Depends how you define “hold up”.
If you’re looking to sell, youre screwed.
Will the Plunge Protection Team’s rescue attempt save Wall Street gamblers from Oilmaggedon?
Is it Oilmageddon?
Dang. That comment didn’t go through? Is it because I said, Chloramine?
Or, was it because I linked to how Zika was a fraud?
Or, was it because I implied,
Not a Dime’s Worth of Difference
By Andrew P. Napolitano
February 11, 2016
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2016/02/andrew-p-napolitano/not-dimes-worth-difference/
If it wasn’t all that, it couldn’t have been because I said, ‘geo-engineering’. Could it? Messing with the statist and the climate-change arguers isn’t permitted?
It’s like, BOO! ‘Geo-engineering’!
They take a little while to show up some times.
Especially if there’s a link.
What if all the remaining presidential candidates really want the same things? What if they all offer essentially the same ideas couched in different words?
Globalists gonna globe.
What if all the remaining presidential candidates really want the same things?
It’s more about what their oligarch puppetmasters want. “Fundamental transformation.”
Just in case you didn’t get the MULTIPLE memos, the two currently surging candidates don’t have oligarch puppetmasters.
So we can disregard that “what if?” question.
Ironic
Hillary would crush the Donald,but Sanders(socialist) would lose
Bernie Sanders reminds me of the character Doc from the movie Back to the future with Michael J Fox for some reason.
It’s the wild hair.
With Rubio as Michael J. Fox?
And Trump as Biff?
Rubio is not going to recover from his shellacking in the debate. But it’s not just Rubio. Politicians have spewed forth the 30-second campaign commercial like that for decades. The “95% of the electorate” is finally catching on to this, to where none of the candidates will be able to get away with it.
“Rubio is not going to recover from his shellacking in the debate.”
Gawd… I hope he doesn’t; phuc him [and] his backers.
unlikely……my guess is uncle retard Biden will jump in as hills VP……but they will still lose
how much different was hills heath plan she proposed 20 years ago? not much
Hillaryous is unelectable.
Sanders(socialist) would lose
Limk? Almost every poll shows either Sanders or Hillary beating Trump, but Sanders usually beats Trump by higher margins.
Barney Sanders is pro-debt slavery.
Hillary?
“Less Popular Than Syphilis”
“What Trump and Sanders have in common is they are not your typical politicians. And don’t think that doesn’t scare the daylights out of the political establishment.”
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=43178#more-43178
Nobody knows who would beat who. Those polls don’t mean much at this point.
Hillary is married to a rapist and associates with her friend Madeline Albright a known leader who approves genocide of 500 000 Iraqi children. In my opinion there is nothing that the vulgar Trump can say to top this sh*t.
What does this say about Hillary lovers?
A vast majority of the women who voted in New Hampshire’s primary on Tuesday will go to Hell when they die, according to former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright’s logic.
The Hillary Clinton supporter generated controversy over the weekend when she attempted to shame female voters into voting for her friend by repeating her now-infamous slogan, “There’s a special place in hell for women who don’t help each other,” at a campaign event. The line drew a ferocious cackle from Clinton, who stood next to Albright on stage at the event. (RELATED: Madeleine Albright Tells Young Women Voters There’s ‘A Special Place In Hell’ For Them If They Don’t Support Hillary)
http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/09/lots-of-women-will-be-going-to-hell-now-according-to-clinton-supporter-madeleine-albright/#ixzz3zrQbhw7O
“There’s a special place in hell for women who don’t help each other,” at a campaign event. The line drew a ferocious cackle from Clinton, who stood next to Albright on stage at the event.
Then there must be an extra-special place reserved for Hillary, given how she “helped” the women who accused Bill of sexual assault over the years.
Maybe they should consider a different slogan.
FoxNewsHate rallies the base, website leads with four articles on Iran right now.
It’s a country the size of Alaska, how much are those boots on the ground gonna cost?
No smaller government or less regulation or lower taxes happening here.
Neocons gonna neocon.
There is a special place in Hell for all the neocons.
SUGuy
Another narrative on conflicting formats of Sky Wizardry:
http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/02/10/paper-hillary-plans-to-attack-sanders-on-israel/
I was preparing my federal income taxes last weekend (I pay alot of taxes) and got to wondering, what is it exactly that Israel has that the United States wants or needs? Name one benefit to American taxpayers that results from unequivocal support of this racist apartheid state?
Oh right, because Rapture.
The question I have is when the world is going to put Netanyahu and his ilk on crimes against humanity.
Israel is a parasitic leech on the United States. Having a blood sucking leach is never a good thing.
“Here Is The Exchange That Left A Stunned Janet Yellen Looking Like A Deer In Headlights”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-10/here-exchange-left-stunned-janet-yellen-looking-deer-headlights
Maybe someone should build a Raptureland theme park in America. All the temples and holy spots people are fighting and dying over in Israel and Palestine could be recreated there, just like the pyramids and sphinx are in Vegas. Then we could let Israel do what they like, on their own dime, and our religious nuts could safely rapture in the midwest, not the Middle East.
We’ll keep our rapture dollars here, thankyouverymuch.
——————————
The Jewish Children’s Museum in Crown Heights unveiled an exact replica of the 2,000-year-old Wailing Wall on Thursday, the latest addition to the museum’s $8 million exhibit floor, titled “A Voyage through Jewish History…”
…The 24-by-11 foot replica is the centerpiece of a brand-new museum floor detailing the history of the Jewish people. Small video screens intersperse the carefully carved rocks, informing visitors about the wall’s history and significance in Jewish culture.
Visitors will even be able to write prayers on scraps of paper and tuck it into the cracks of the wall, as is custom in Jerusalem. Every month, the staff of the museum will collect the papers and send them to Israel to be inserted into the real wall.
———————-
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/brooklyn/jewish-children-museum-crown-heights-unveils-replica-jerusalem-wailing-wall-article-1.1031922
Maybe someone should build a Raptureland theme park in America.
It already exists: The Holy Land Experience, in Orlando:
http://www.holylandexperience.com/
+1000
And speaking of rally, this linked from Google News:
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/iranians-rally-celebrate-anniversary-1979-revolution-36853690
National debt is now twenty trillion dollars, all these new wars are gonna be really really expensive. And after you get “tired of winning” who gets to pay for it?
“Don’t vote for me if you’re tired of war” — Lindsey Graham
Peace through strength=Ohio Class Submarines
Who needs neocon nation building? Let’s take care of our country first.
Goon:
I have never been clear on why you name it Fox News Hate - is it because Fox news incites hate of because you hate Fox News? Could it be both?
Because it’s all war, all the time. It is Orwell’s “Two Minutes Hate” except it airs 24/7/365. I specifically blame Fox for psychologically conditioning this country into supporting the 2003 criminal invasion of Iraq.
I’ll share some stories about my experiences working as a defense contractor when the statute of limitations expires. Check back with me in a decade…
Not sure I will live that long.
Has yet another Minsky Moment landed on the global economy so close on the heels of the last one?
ValueWalk
What Would Minsky Do Now?
By Advisor Perspectives on February 1, 2016 3:20 pm in Business
February 1, 2016
by Laurence B. Siegel
In the two decades since his death, Hyman Minsky’s stature has grown enormously. He foresaw the great financial crisis of 2007-2009, and economists routinely refer to “Minsky moments” as the tipping point when seemingly stable financial markets collapse with catastrophic consequences. It’s instructive to speculate on how Minsky would view our post-crisis economic recovery, and a new book allows us to do just that.
…
Minsky was brilliant and farseeing, and his insights cut across the political and tribal boundaries that characterize modern economics; most of them are well outside the box that liberal thought now occupies. We would do well to study, and in some cases implement, Minsky’s recommendations for a more stable and fairer financial system. But policies based on a superficial understanding of his work can lead to economic paralysis, a topic to which I’ll return.
…
It is QE4 or a total collapse.
“QE is like a roach motel, once your in you cant get out.” P Schiff
Also resembles the Hotel California…
Market Realist
Bill Gross Says the Fed Has Become ‘Increasingly Addled’
By Surbhi Jain Feb 4, 2016 11:14 am EST
The Fed neglected the housing bubble
Bill Gross has been highly critical of the housing bubble and how the Fed neglected it. As a result of his views, the Fed has labeled him as an “odd duck.”
In his investment outlook for February 2016, Gross talks about the “Minsky Moment,” which requires one to rely on common sense as opposed to statistical modeling. Referring to the 2007-2009 subprime crisis as a “fascinating period of corporate and global financial history,” Gross says that the period continues to affect monetary policy decision making by the Fed and other central banks. Most central banks continue to rely on statistical models while deciding the future course of monetary policy measures. According to Gross, the Fed has become “increasingly addled.”
Gross talks about the impotence of monetary policy
According to Gross, “our finance-based global economy is transitioning due to the impotence of monetary policy which has always, and is now increasingly focused on the elixir of low/negative interest rates.”
Central banks have always resorted to the policy rate as the key tool to effect changes in the economy, and their thought process remains fixated on the notion that “higher short rates slow economic growth/temper inflation, and that low (or negative) interest rates do just the opposite.” However, this tool has done little to achieve the desired effect. We see evidence of this policy tool’s failure in the cases of Europe (HEDJ), the US (SPY) (IWM) (QQQ), and Japan (EWJ).
…
It is hard to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on not understanding it. Financial types seem to be particularly susceptible to this.
ValueWalk
Whether Sub-Zero Interest Rates Wreak Havoc
By VW Staff on February 7, 2016 3:33 pm in Business
Karen Shaw Petrou’s memorandum to the Federal Financial Analytics Clients on whether sub-zero interest rates wreak havoc
TO: Federal Financial Analytics Clients
FROM: Karen Shaw Petrou
DATE: February 5, 2016
Whether Sub-Zero Interest Rates Wreak Havoc
In front of the children, the Federal Reserve is keeping its collective voice as soothing as possible, but the new CCAR shows that the grown-ups know how big the bumps in the night could prove if U.S. rates drop below the zero lower bound. The negative interest-rate test is the most alarming among a series of scary hypotheses in the new CCAR (see our Client Report) because it so flies in the face of everything the FRB said when it released its FOMC statement only days before. FedFin took negative interest rates to be a serious U.S. prospect last summer, issuing a paper laying this out at the time. Now that we aren’t the only ones talking out loud about what negative rates might do to banks, it’s worth also revisiting what they could well do to the rest of us. In short, get out the shoeboxes.
A lot of talk in the last few days about negative rates has been surprisingly sanguine, but that’s largely because those doing the talking are theoretical economists and central bankers thinking about what they know best, which for sure isn’t how financial systems respond to a structural inversion as tectonic as prolonged negative interest rates. To be sure, the forecasting challenge for financial stability isn’t simple. One must consider how low rates go below the zero lower bound (ZLB), which rates go where when across the yield curve, and how long which rate stays south of the border. The Fed’s scenario is far from certain, but it’s extremely informative as well as far from comforting.
Under it, three-month Treasuries start below the ZLB – at minus 0.2 percent in the second quarter of 2016, dip to minus 0.5 percent in the third quarter and then stay at minus 0.5 percent through the first quarter of 2019. In short, this isn’t an accidental or temporary drop, but rather the sustained nominal negative interest rates advocated earlier this week by former FRB-Minneapolis President Kocherlakota. In the CCAR, the FRB also gives its own yield-curve projections, with the longest-maturity Treasury (the benchmark ten-year) starting the test in the second quarter at a very skinny positive 0.2 percent with the rate bouncing gradually – very gradually — upward to close at 1.7 percent by the first quarter of 2019. And you thought two percent benchmark ten-year Treasuries were bargain basement.
…
“Bloodbath In Black Gold - Buffett’s Phillips 66 Dumps Oil In Cushing, Crashes Crude Spreads To 5 Year Lows”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-10/bloodbath-black-gold-buffetts-phillips-66-dumps-oil-cushing-crashes-crude-spreads-5-
Nothing accelerates the economy and drives employment higher like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.
Unemployed people in our Obama-Fed-Goldman Sachs “recovery” aren’t doing much driving.
Why not? I thought the common wisdom here is that welfare benefits are the equivalent of a 60K income.
If prices weren’t rigged and fixed at grossly inflated levels(socialism), there would be no need for welfare(socialism).
You seem to like socialism. Why is that?
We need some Global Warming.
SE Region IV
Warmist Warming Thursday, as scripted by New York Times real journalists:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/02/11/opinion/the-court-blocks-efforts-to-slow-climate-change.html
Got ninety-eight percent price collapse?
Is 290 the bottom!?
Home / Shipping News / Dry Bulk Market
Baltic Dry Index remains at 290, No change
Today, Thursday, February 11 2016, the Baltic Dry Index showed no change, remaining at 290 points.
Baltic Dry Index is compiled by the London-based Baltic Exchange and covers prices for transported cargo such as coal, grain and iron ore. The index is based on a daily survey of agents all over the world. Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on on Wednesday, February 10 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.
Source: Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
Top News
Wed Feb 10, 2016 | 9:28 AM EST
Baltic index slips further, hits new record low
Feb 10 (Reuters) - The Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, extended its record decline for the 12th straight session on Wednesday due to concerns about demand.
The Baltic dry index is down about 98 percent from its peak of 11,793 points in May 2008, marking the lowest level since the records began in 1985.
The overall index, which gauges the cost of shipping resources including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell by 1 point to 290 points.
…
Gold at the time of this post at $1239, which is just $160 away from breaking through its long term downward trend. This could be the year for the big breakout.
Buy precious metals, Bitcoin, ETH, wines, and whiskey.
Pack a go bag, especially if you live in one of our soon-to-be-fundamentally-transformed urban centers.
http://graywolfsurvival.com/3089/graywolfs-bug-bag-list-contents/
I cannot walk across the Mexican border with gold in my go bag. I can walk across with my Bitcoin wallet without it getting confiscated though.
If it comes to “go time” I strongly suspect that Mexico will restrict entry to the country. Keep a few gold coins on you for bribes.
I still like the disconnect that we all need to carry go-bags because there won’t be any food or potable water available; but we expect the electrical grid, satellites, and banks and banks of servers in air-conditioned rooms to remain operational.
Don’t give up your car parts.
We’re going to flee to Mexico for safety when TSHTF? Sounds rather…insane.
The appearance of growing panic among central bankers bodes favorably for your scenario. As long predicted here, the Fed is rapidly backing away from liftoff plans. While higher interest rates would crush gold, a waning prospect of higher rates is supportive.
Finance
Panic grips world markets as FTSE and gilt yields hit record lows - live
Dirk Mueller, a trader working on the telephone as the DAX index curve is displayed in the background at the Deutsche Boerse AG at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, in Frankfurt, Germany, on Monday, Jan, 21, 2008.
The FTSE 100 slumps to a fresh four-year low.
By Tara Cunningham, and Chris Graham
1:27PM GMT 11 Feb 2016
European stock markets hit two-and-a-half year low after a savage sell-off in Asia, as investors flock to safe-have assets following Yellen’s Congressional testimony
…
NIRP is baked in the cake. Yellen is already sounding out banks to see how its implementation will be worked out. When this latest escalation in the Fed’s swindles against the 99% is implemented, I fully expect the intelligent 5% of the population to give Yellen and the banks the finger by pulling all but the minimum level of deposits from their accounts and buying physical gold and silver, rather than “investing” in Wall Street’s rigged casino. Precious metals will soar, which won’t go unnoticed by the sheep, who will already be getting agitated. While the Europeans and Japanese politely take it up the a$$ from their central bankers when they impose NIRP and bail-ins, I think that’s going to be the last straw for millions of ‘Muricans who will finally wake the flock up. Interesting times, my friend. Interesting times.
More on the oligopoly’s intentions to implement NIRP as well as a cashless society so they can have total visibility over the sheeple’s assets, income, and sources of wealth for looting and asset-stripping purposes.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-10/something-very-disturbing-spotted-morgan-stanley-presentation-slide
I am thinking I may be able to exchange physical precious metals for Bitcoin.
Exchanging a store of real wealth for the past 5,000 years for a scam crypto currency? Knock yourself out.
It will be a more interesting year watching kitco.com. I’ve been slamming my shoe on the table about gold through a year ago and buying twice a year, including last year. I’m slamming that shoe on crypto currency now. The January effect on stocks bodes well for the precious.
Market cycles.
Bill, my NUGT looks set to fly today.
I love the smell of burning gold shorts in the morning. It smells like…victory.
AUY might get above $2.75 today. I will be watching from the Nordic trak machine at 6:30 leftist coast time.
“Precious metals will soar…”
Gold has already “soared” from $1600 to $1200. Nice run-up during the biggest credit expansion in history, but what is happening now is something different. Something we’ve never seen in our lifetimes.
Buckle up.
we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end, we shall print in France, we shall print on the seas and oceans, we shall print with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our Island, whatever the cost may be, we shall print on the beaches, we shall print on the landing grounds, we shall print in the fields and in the streets, we shall print in the hills; we shall never surrender, and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this Island or a large part of it were subjugated and starving, then our Empire beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the struggle, until, in God’s good time, the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the liberation of the old.
Baltic index sinks as trade dries up
Aditi Divekar | Mumbai
Feb 04, 2016 12:59 AM IST
The Baltic Dry Index, the benchmark for dry bulk shipping freight, has fallen to as low as 300 points, sparking fears of vessels being laid off, if trade deteriorates further.
In 2008, the index had crossed the 11,000-mark. It started falling because of China’s significantly reduced presence in the international dry bulk segment. For the last few months, it fell week after week.
While agents claim that ships could soon be docked as there was hardly any freight to carry, most shipping companies did not comment on the matter.
“The laying-up of ships has already started in the Far East. As shipping is an international business, India will obviously be affected,” said Captain Anoop Sharma, managing director, Essar Shipping. He added his company was doing better than its peers as its other business segments were doing well.
Shipping Corporation of India, Great Eastern Shipping and Essar Shipping are the leaders of the domestic market.
“If this trade climate prevails, ship owners will have no option but to shut down vessel operations. I don’t see that situation too far away. Maybe in the next three to six months, owners may have to take such a call. Currently, however, vessel owners continue to look for business,” said shipping agent Daniel Chopra, also the managing director of Mumbai-based Elektrans.
The index has been on a continuous fall since August last year following China’s economic slowdown that led to the devaluation of their currency, which actually set the strong bearish tone for the bulk trade market, not just in the Asia-Pacific region, but across the globe. Since early this year, the index has touched new lows and was at 310 on February 2 from a high of 1,222 on August 5, 2015.
China, the world’s largest importer and exporter of several commodities, is now only importing sugar in a big way. A slowdown in its economy indicates grim trade climate across world.
“If owners lay-up vessels, it would be the first time since the second half of 1980,” Chopra said.
…
Cam Newton Lunch Special
Crow and Spilt Milk
Speaking of sore looser bedwetters, this linked from Drudge Report:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-11/the-adult-diaper-market-is-about-to-take-off
Hillary’s next promo gig after she looses the election? LOLZ
Cam Newton Lunch Special
But he looked so good warming up while wearing his Supergirl shirt.
We crowed some folks…
Barack HUSSEIN obama.
Chinese are big time gamblers.
Bass Says China Bank Losses May Top 400% of Subprime Crisis
Kyle Bass, the hedge fund manager who successfully bet against mortgages during the subprime crisis, said China’s banking system may see losses of more than four times those suffered by U.S. banks during the last crisis.
Should the Chinese banking system lose 10 percent of its assets because of nonperforming loans, the nation’s banks will see about $3.5 trillion in equity vanish, Bass, the founder of Dallas-based Hayman Capital Management, wrote in a letter to investors obtained by Bloomberg. The world’s second-biggest economy may end up having to print more than $10 trillion of yuan to recapitalize banks, pressuring the currency to devalue in excess of 30 percent against the dollar, according to Bass
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-10/bass-says-china-s-banking-losses-may-top-400-of-subprime-crisis
That will surely make commodities soar.
Anecdotal reports suggest that Chinese who got burned in the stock market are now turning to physical precious metals. I think gold will see $2500 before the end of the year, as even the dullest of the sheeple finally wakes up to the central bankers’ debauchery of the currency and what it will mean for their household wealth and savings.
Maybe. But maybe guys like you with some play money to throw around and swap gold coins with others of their kind are vastly outnumbered by sheep who actually owe money and will have to sell stuff to pay their bills.
The Chinese have been buying tons of gold for a few years, so that information is a little late. That was during the biggest credit expansion in history in China. Something else is starting to happen there now. Have you noticed a recent trend in the price of commodities? Do you think another massive commodities boom is just about to break loose?
To take a turn on Hoss; Sell what China has been buying.
Maybe. But maybe guys like you with some play money to throw around and swap gold coins with others of their kind are vastly outnumbered by sheep who actually owe money and will have to sell stuff to pay their bills.’
yea scary scenario almost happened in 2008 but the OIL Fracking revolution saved us remember .
I don’t know what they are going to do this time ?? But I never do.
If they got burned in the stock market, isn’t it quite likely they have margin debt to repay? I’m wondering where underwater gamblers in a nation whose economy has slowed to a 25 year low of a glacial 6.9% GDP growth rate and whose currency is undergoing devaluation will find the extra cash needed to drive up the gold price?
Seems more likely they will be selling gold to cover margin debt.
“Bass Says China Bank Losses May Top 400% of Subprime Crisis”
Is this a roundabout way of saying that China bank losses are contained?
Was this what did it?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-10/here-exchange-left-stunned-janet-yellen-looking-deer-headlights
Interesting exchange (if you can call it that) between Duffy and Yellen. There should be no doubt in anyone’s mind that the Fed picks winners and losers, and that inside info is their stock in trade. And there’s that Soros name again, gee.
None of these guys and gals have any particular financial skill. None of them. It’s all about insider information, that’s it. It’s a club, and you ain’t in it.
None of these guys and gals have any particular financial skill.
I would argue that racketeering with impunity is a kind of financial skill. And looting the muppets every 7.5 years takes some deft swindling talents, I would say.
I see debt muppets.
Valentine’s Day clickbait linked from Huffington Post:
http://www.littlethings.com/valentines-for-singles/
Cats, boxed wine, and SSRI anti-depressants.
Tell yourself you can “have it all.”
Washington Post real journalists editorial disses The Donald:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-unacceptable-mr-trump/2016/02/10/541fc2ea-d018-11e5-abc9-ea152f0b9561_story.html
This message sponsored by the Southern Poverty Law Center:
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/269053-trump-retweets-then-deletes-white-nationalist-account
“Anyone who says the American economy is in decline is peddling fiction.”
– President Barak Obama, 2016 SOTU address.
I smell fear. Is that you, Jingle Male?
Listen to your betters:
“Most of us are “cisgender,” meaning our gender identity matches our sex, or more simply put, we feel the way we are seen. I was born with lady parts (not to put too fine a point on it) and I have always felt female. An increasingly visible number of people experience a conflict between inside and outside. Transgender, or “trans” people, have physical anatomies that don’t correlate with their internal gender identity. For others—those who identify as neither male nor female, but somewhere along the vast continuum between masculine and feminine—gender identity may be a less fixed idea. These people might refer to themselves as non-binary, genderqueer, gender variant, gender nonconforming, or gender diverse, among other terms.”
http://www.salon.com/2016/02/10/gender_neutral_pronouns_partner/
Some days the zombie apocalypse can’t come soon enough.
Does a few million people you will never meet being extremely weird hurt you somehow? What’s the fascination?
Piss off, ankle biter.
Listen to your betters.
Stop being a loser, and you won’t have betters.
These queers just aren’t getting adequate coaching in healthy self identification. The American Indian culture had this natural confusion all worked out. They identified with other species. The outcome was more harmonious.
They identified with other species. The outcome was more harmonious.
Well, there were also the Two-Spirits. Turns out this transgender thing has been going on a long time, in all cultures.
“Turns out this transgender thing has been going on a long time, in all cultures.”
That knowledge should make the Transitioning period easier for you Oddie.
http://rockymountainfurcon.org/
I thought something was missing at Comic Con last year.
where if not for the housing bubble would we find this crazy stuff ??
In real news
CEO said we have enough money to withstand a down turn ..
Things are turning down in Cloud Computing. Samsung was apparently very glum.
I fear layoffs later this year after very rapid growth. Bummer.
I wonder if we will get a bailout..
Things are turning down in Cloud Computing.
Sounds like Enterprise Computing isn’t going away quite yet.
Up, up and away!
http://www.kitco.com/market/
Most Americans say U.S. economic system is unfair, but high-income Republicans disagree
It has become one of the recurring questions of the 2016 presidential campaigns in both parties: Is the U.S. economic system fair to most Americans, or is it “rigged” to favor the rich and powerful?
A substantial majority of Americans – 65% – say the economic system in this country “unfairly favors powerful interests.” Fewer than half as many (31%) say the system “is generally fair to most Americans.”
There are notable differences on this issue between – and within – both political parties. Overall, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are more likely than Republicans and Republican leaners to view the economic system as unfair (73% vs. 54%).
The ideological gap is even starker. Conservative Republicans are split over the fairness of the economic system: 50% say the system favors the powerful, while just about as many (47%) say it’s fair. By contrast, fully 82% of liberal Democrats say the economic system in this country favors powerful interests. A slim 15% think it’s fair to most.
The economic differences within parties are striking. Republicans and Republican leaners with family incomes of $100,000 or more are more likely than any other income group in either party to say the system is fair to most Americans: 60% of Republicans with incomes of at least $100,000 express this view, compared with no more than about four-in-ten Republicans in lower income categories.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/10/most-americans-say-u-s-economic-system-is-unfair-but-high-income-republicans-disagree/?platform=hootsuite
“Most Americans say U.S. economic system is unfair, but high-income Republicans disagree”
Most Americans cannot wait to sign a dotted line or two that commits hefty chunks of their paychecks to be sent for years - decades - up the economic food chain to deserving people such as myself.
The Game is rigged and everyone knows it is rigged but nevertheless they still line up to play.
Bahahahaha … a nation of dummys.
The Game is rigged and everyone knows
Sounds like most of the higher-income GOPsters haven’t figured it out. Are they dim bulbs or do they just lie to the pollsters?
Most Americans say U.S. economic system is unfair, but high-income Republicans disagree
Sounds like another Mitt Rmoney moment for the GOP. They must really want Sanders to be the next Prez.
And there is only one solution to collapsing demand and record joblessness that results from fixed, rigged and grossly inflated prices(socialism).
What is that you ask?
Falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels accelerating the economy and driving employment higher like nothing else can.
The banksters’ ultimate nightmare: being held accountable by juries for their crimes and mendacity.
https://www.rt.com/uk/332135-hsbc-cartels-money-laundering/
” it would be madness for anybody who cares about this country’s future to feel anything but dread towards the economic threats facing the world. The sorry truth is that there is very little that governments can do at this stage, apart from battening down the hatches and hoping that central banks succeed in kicking our problems even further down the road.”
From ‘The Telegraph’ :”The world can’t afford another financial crash – it could destroy capitalism as we know it”
Capitalism got us here, so I guess that’s fitting.
How did Capitalism turn you into a broke down debt donkey Russ?
He exercised the freedom of choice our capitalistic system offered to him.
How did Capitalism turn you into a broke down debt donkey
Are you saying that everything is fine with our economic system, and any problems people might be having are mostly their own fault?
Are you saying there is something wrong, and all the problems people are having are solved by more fixed, rigged and inflated prices(socialism)?
If the system is rigged, it’s not necessarily your fault if you’re unsuccessful. If your actions determine whether you’re successful or not, and the hard workers and long-term thinkers are rewarded and the shortsighted spendthrifts punished, then the system is working fine.
Which is it?
Are you saying that socialism is an extortion racket run by greedy gangsters?
Are you hiding from my question?
Your question was an answer.
Caught you in your own words, eh? I’ll let you think about it overnight, see of you’ve come up with an answer tomorrow.
You’re backpedalling Anklepants.
End stage capitalism has stuffed my pockets with stupidly invested money. It’s been very good to me. That doesn’t prevent me from seeing the harm to others.
Attention FBs! If you must moan about the market value of your home rapidly cratering while your mortgage remains the same, please try to moan in time with all the other FBs. Otherwise it sounds so disconcordant….
http://www.businessinsider.com/market-update-february-11-2016-2
The EU’s Lehman moment slouches inexorably forward, despite Draghi’s frantic can-kicking.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-11/european-sovereign-risk-soars-systemic-fears-mount
So…here it is - full circle (jerk) now - Otrauma returns to the turf that launched him into the national limelight.
The only this this flea bitten cesspool called ILLANNOY exports is Chicago machine politics and foists it on the nation.
What an utter f…ing fail this whole thing is.
Where are the true statesmen when we need them?
Don’t move here - you won’t like it.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-obama-interview-20160211-story.html
Something to think about as oil crashes…….
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/ISIS-Forced-To-Cut-Wages-As-Oil-Revenues-Tank.html
They’re promising them more virgins to compensate for the pay cuts.
I’ll pay you 20 virgins in heaven for your life right now.
Update: Dow Craters To New 5 Month Low; Down 320 Points On Day
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DJIA
What could go wrong here……?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-10/burger-king-adds-hot-dogs-in-synergy-of-buffett-backed-companies
That should add a few billion to their market cap.
Because every
onefruit and nut wants to live thereSan Francisco, CA Opens Public Open Air Urinals
http://gizmodo.com/san-franciscos-first-outdoor-urinal-opens-just-in-time-1755961380
crushing.housing.losses.
What could go wrong here - part deux….?
http://ritholtz.com/2016/02/slowdown-in-venture-capital-deals-is-a-cause-for-concern/
“Smash a B*tch’s Computer” – Female Student Attacked, Punched in Chest, Because of Trump Sticker on Her Computer
Clifford Durand punched or shoved Brianna Algazali after class
Gateway Pundit | Jim Hoft - February 11, 2016
An unhinged leftist threatened to “Smash a B*tch’s Computer” and assaults her because of a Donald Trump sticker.
Clifford Durand threatened on Twitter to “smash a b*tch’s computer”.
His account has since been suspended.
Clifford Durand punched or shoved Brianna Algazali after class.
The student told the newspaper Algazali asked Clifford Durand to take down the post and he told her to “make me.” The student said Durand then punched her in the chest.
Here’s video of Durand – His friends are laughing about the attack:
“They can’t hold you bro!”
Durand attacked the girl “Shoved her in her neck” after she asked him to take down the Tweet.
The Daily Mail reported:
A student has been condemned online after threatening to smash a classmate’s computer because it had a Donald Trump sticker on it.
The man, identified online as Clifford Durand, a student at St John’s University, New York, posted at 10am threatening to ‘smash this b**ch’s computer’ if his message was retweeted 7,000 times.
After the message went viral, attracting more than 20,000 shares as of Wednesday evening, Durand boasted about getting into a fight with the girl, who has yet to be identified.
In a now-deleted message at around 4pm, Durand wrote: ‘She threw her Starbucks at me and got shoved in the neck.’
According to students at the college, who spoke to the New York Daily News, the fight broke out in a corridor after the woman saw the message about her.
Sources told the news site that the woman asked for the post to be taken down, to which Durand responded ‘make me’.
smash her shit
Without directly referencing Durand’s messages, it says: ‘Thank you to everyone who reported the incident to us. This type of behavior will not be tolerated. Public Safety is handing the situation.
‘Safety is our top priority. Any student in violation of our Code of Conduct is subject to our conduct process.’
http://www.infowars.com/…/ - 132k -
Must be “Smack a Trumpling” day.
“Must be “Smack a Trumpling” day.”
Nope, just another attack that doesn’t fit the narrative so it doesn’t hit the news.
Not surprising your selective rage approves of the thug hitting a girl.
Nope, just another attack that doesn’t fit the narrative so it doesn’t hit the news.
What narrative would that be?
You’re backpedalling.
Stupid should hurt, no matter the gender.
“Stupid should hurt, no matter the gender.”
Ah yes, men who hit women, one small step above child molester.
Congrats Central Scrutinizer
One thing I have wondered about the Jack McCabe RE newsletter subscription, but can’t ask there since comments are turned off: did Jack maintain a model portfolio during the first innings of the downturn, based upon his advice to other clients? If so, what were his returns during 2008-2012?
Comparing investment returns based upon a model portfolio (updated over time as their investment recommendations are released) is a common way of comparing newsletters…
Joe Namath thinks about donating his brain to science for head injury research.
http://tinyurl.com/z62ahlb
Of course, we don’t know what kind of injuries they are going to be researching…….
Concussion or alcohol related? Inquiring minds want to know…..
http://tinyurl.com/zof3yrt
“I spent a lot of money on booze, birds and fast cars. The rest I just squandered.” - George Best
“There are two ways to conquer and enslave a country.
One is by the sword. The other is by debt.”
- John Adams
One way is by coercion, another other way is by persuasion.
If you choose to utilize a system of coercion then you will have to deal with slave revolts. If you choose to utilize a system of persuasion then instead of dealing with slave revolts your system will be blessed with support - support offered by the very same people that you enslaved.
Dumb ‘em down, and profit.
NBAA (the lobbying group for owners of business aircraft) is having their bi-annual hissy fit over ATC privatization……
http://tinyurl.com/zvt34qb
Funny how privatization of government services is all the rage with the guys flying these things (no demographic is more Republican than bizjet owners).
That is, until they actually have to pay the freight on the services they use. Then it’s all about “public good” and “equal access”.
Nav Canada is privatized. We get a bill every time we fly to Europe or Canada. I’ve heard a price of $100/flight for the typical bizjet owner bandied about. Yeah, that’s “too much”. But a $1000 bill for airplane catering per trip isn’t a problem……..
They do have a point, in that a tax on fuel is probably the most equitable way of distributing costs of the system. But if you support that, you shouldn’t have a problem with (say) a “financial transaction” tax.
“Any man who thinks he can be happy and prosperous by
letting the Government take care of him,
better take a closer look at the American Indian.”
- Henry Ford
If only the Indians had “Too Big To Fail.”
All hail the FSA!!
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-obama-budget-payments-to-individuals-to-hot-record-2-9-trillion-and-71-of-total-federal-spending/
lol@pimps
http://goo.gl/yUwfQz
Megadeth Dystopia
Opened number 3 on the billboard 200. Sign of the times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrV61ATP3Ec
Mmmmmm, Mmm. They be serving Krator Tators for mid-afternoon snacks on the trading floor today!
LOLZ
Arco gas in Salinas: station A: $2.09 gal station B: $2.05 gal
station C: $1.99 gal
–
why is gas .75 cents cheaper 80 miles north off of the same 101 Hwy?
Fraud. Why else?
Anyone short China? I mentioned this at $40’s. Get in the game!
FXP +3.79% today ($61.39 )
are you in the game?
Ray K - more confirmation that The American economy is in decline and NOT peddling fiction………contrary to our illustrious moron in chief.
http://www.indystar.com/story/money/2016/02/10/carrier-move-indy-unit-mexico-eliminate-1400-jobs/80181804/
Oil Is the Cheap Date From Hell
Wherever oil goes, the stock market goes. This relationship has got to end.
Peter Coy petercoy
Matthew Philips
Bloomberg Businessweek Reprints
February 11, 2016 — 3:00 AM PST
It’s scary out there. The rout in the stock market that began around Jan. 1 took a turn for the worse early this month. By Feb. 10 the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was down 9 percent for the year. That’s its worst start since the recession year of 2008. Falling oil prices were blamed: A meeting between Saudis and Venezuelans aimed at curbing production had ended inconclusively. West Texas Intermediate fell again below $28 a barrel—more than 70 percent off its 2014 high. Trigger-happy investors have gotten accustomed to selling stocks whenever oil dips. With oil in serious oversupply, it’s hard to sustain any kind of recovery on Wall Street. “The toughest problem for people to deal with is oil getting linked with the market,” says Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup’s chief U.S. equity strategist.
Just in time for Valentine’s Day, it appears that oil and stocks have developed an unhealthy, codependent relationship. They’re way too deep into each other. Where one market goes, the other follows. If they were people, a counselor would be urging a trial separation. “This is highly unusual,” Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, wrote to clients in late January. “Call it the oil correlation conundrum.”
Or oilmageddon, as Citigroup economists have named it. Before you join the Cassandras, though, here are a few things to consider: First, cheap oil isn’t the boogeyman you’d think it is from reading the headlines. Upward spikes in energy prices cause recessions; dips don’t. The national average price of gasoline is down $1.01 from last summer. The money people save is fueling purchases of things like takeout food. “If you’re driving to work every day and you save $10 at the gas pump, you stop at Starbucks or whatever and spend part of that savings,” says Michael Montgomery, an economist with IHS Global Insight.
…
An economy built on debt acts counterintuitively.
“This relationship has got to end.”
Why end a beautiful relationship?
Trump is selling dumbed-down solutions to complex problems, all wrapped in a macho swagger so overdone it would make John Wayne blush.
Don’t like immigrants? Trump will build a wall.
Scared of Muslims? Trump will ban them.
Worried about terrorism? Trump will kill them all.
Trump’s supporters love him because he makes them feel good, but his speeches and interviews are the junk food of political discourse. Everything that comes out of his mouth is crafted to stimulate the same response as when Rocky finally gets up and pummels Apollo Creed.
The time for smooth talk is over. It is time for testosterone.
And lies from a man you wouldn’t buy a used car from.
Trumplings are so gullible….
me build wall
me deport all
me create jobs
me fight China
sheeple eat it up, with out asking for details.
Trumplings are so gullible….
sheeple eat it up, with out asking for details.
You both forgot to mention “Hope and Change” and lump yourselves into the sheeple group…
from 10% unemployment to 5% looks like “hope and change
” to me…..for now.
and all with a do nothing congress
Are you sure?
Labor Force Participation Rate Plummets To 37 Year Low; Jobless Population Soars To Record High
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
It’s amusing to watch mafia blocks demonstrate on a daily basis that he doesn’t understand the labor force participation rate.
Data Anklepants. Data.
If you noticed, the millennials do not support Trump. They fact check everything lightening fast.
Trump has all that money and yet CalifoH20 and The Central Scrutinizer allow him to live rent free in their skulls.
shhhhh…. dont talk about him and maybe he can win….
shhhhhh — just have faith my brother
From your empty skulls directly to the White House, Donald Trump lives rent-free.
Is it true that Trump has mob ties?
Marketwatch dot com
Treasury yields plunge to lowest level since August 2012
Published: Feb 11, 2016 11:26 a.m. ET
Spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasurys narrowest since 2008
By Anora Mahmudova
Reporter
An earlier version of this article provided an incorrect level of Sweden’s interest-rate cut on Thursday.
Treasury prices rallied, pushing yields to their lowest levels since August 2012, amid global rush to find perceived safety of haven assets like U.S. government bonds as U.S. stocks eyed five consecutive days of declines.
Underpinning the moves was a drop in oil prices (CLH6, -1.09%) and renewed worries about the health of the European banking system (FX7, -6.26%).
“This is a fully fledged flight to quality and not a repricing due to changing fundamentals,” said David Schnautz, fixed income strategist at Commerzbank.
“The yields at these lows suggests it’s not about a return on capital but a return off capital, or preservation of capital,” Schnautz said.
A spike in Portugal’s sovereign bond yields (TMBMKPT-10Y, +11.04%) and a surprise 15 basis point rate cut to negative 0.5% by Sweden’s central bank underscored the troubles confronting European markets, according to analysts.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note (TMUBMUSD10Y, -3.28%) —the Treasury market’s benchmark—fell as much as 16 basis points to trade at 1.53%, but recovered somewhat to trade at 1.590% from 1.706% on Wednesday. Treasury yields fall when prices rise and vice versa.
The benchmark yield has dropped about 70 basis points since the start of the year as investors fled stocks and turn to assets that tend to preserve capital but offer a yield. Negative yields in Europe, which means investors must pay to park money, has accelerated appetite for the relatively richer returns offered in U.S. government debt.
The yield on the two-year note (TMUBMUSD02Y, -6.39%) fell 7 basis points to 0.634% from 0.706% on Wednesday.
The differential between 10-year and 2-year yields, also known as the yield curve flattened further on Thursday, narrowing to 99 basis points, its smallest spread since the financial crisis of 2008. This suggests that investors are willing to pay less than a percentage point premium to hold a 10-year bond versus a 2-year bond. The market typically interprets a flattening yield curve as a warning sign that the economy is slowing and that lower rates and /or lower inflation is in the offing.
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Bonds
Treasury yields pare losses amid OPEC production report
1 Hour Ago
Reuters
U.S. Treasury yields gave up some losses Thursday amid a report that OPEC members could be ready to cooperate on a crude production cut.
Earlier in the day, yields plunged to levels not seen since 2012, in some cases, as worries over global growth and the effectiveness of central bank policy sparked huge demand for safe-haven assets. As stocks sold off Thursday morning, 30-year bond futures hit their highest level in 40 years, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
“The U.S. Long Bond future has broken out … as ‘risk-free’ interest rates plummet,” Bespoke wrote in a research note tracking markets back to 1977.
…
maybe yellen wont do qe4 and have some folks to offload some bonds to in a market panic?
Why would the Fed have to bother with QE4 if 30-year bond futures are already at a 40 year high without it?
provide some gambling cash for wall street again?
Is available oil storage capacity nearing the saturation point?
ft dot com > Markets >
Commodities
February 11, 2016 5:27 pm
Oil slides on storage capacity strains
David Sheppard in London
Oil prices fell on Thursday as a growing glut of crude starts to strain storage options for traders, with supply from Opec and other producers still outstripping demand.
The US oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate dropped as much as 5.1 per cent to a fresh 12-year low of $26.05 a barrel, following reports of a further rise in crude stocks at its delivery point of Cushing, Oklahoma.
Stocks at the oil hub, known as the pipeline crossroads of the world, reached a record high last week approaching 65m barrels and close to 90 per cent of its capacity.
Industry monitor Genscape, which analyses storage tank levels through flyovers and infrared monitoring of pipelines, said on Thursday that initial signs were for a further rise in stocks this week.
The rise in crude stocks at Cushing is weighing particularly heavily on WTI for delivery next month. The March WTI contract’s discount or spread to April has widened to more than $2.50 — the highest front-month discount in five years.
Traders said the front-month discount may widen further to either encourage refiners to buy more crude in the coming months or to cover higher storage costs, with tank space becoming harder to find.
“Any further increase in crude oil stocks will probably put additional downward pressure on the spread,” said Tamas Varga at PVM Associates in London.
“As things look right now further selling in the front-end WTI spread cannot be excluded.”
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Nevada rancher Cliven Bundy charged with assault, conspiracy
Nevada rancher Cliven Bundy, the father of the jailed leader of the protest at an Oregon wildlife refuge, was charged with conspiracy, assault on a federal officer, obstruction and other crimes one day after FBI agents arrested him in Portland, Ore.
A criminal complaint filed Thursday stems from Bundy’s role at the center of a tense April 2014 armed standoff with federal officials near his ranch in Nevada.
It involved Bundy’s supporters pointing military-style weapons at federal agents trying to enforce a court order to round up Bundy cattle from federal rangeland near his ranch.
Bundy was arrested Wednesday night when he arrived at Portland International Airport from Las Vegas.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/02/11/nevada-rancher-cliven-bundy-arrested-by-fbi-in-portland.html
Finally. Something I’m glad Portland is known for.
The sea was gorgeous today my friends, like the women surrounding Donald Trump after his victory in New Hampshire.
As hot as his daughter that he wants to date?
Bernie Sanders Dines With Al Sharpton In Harlem
Published February 10, 201611:11 AM ET
Susan Davis
The Rev. Al Sharpton talks with Sen. Bernie Sanders at Sylvia’s Restaurant in Harlem the morning after Sanders’ New Hampshire primary victory over Hillary Clinton.
The Rev. Al Sharpton talks with Sen. Bernie Sanders at Sylvia’s Restaurant in Harlem the morning after Sanders’ New Hampshire primary victory over Hillary Clinton.
Richard Drew/AP
The morning after his New Hampshire primary victory, Bernie Sanders made a highly publicized visit to Harlem to dine with Al Sharpton, one of America’s most prominent civil rights activists and media personalities.
The two dined at Sylvia’s, the same New York City restaurant where Sharpton huddled with Barack Obama during his 2008 presidential campaign.
Wednesday’s meeting was a not-so-subtle recognition of Sanders’ pivot to South Carolina and Sanders’ effort to broaden his appeal to the state’s decisive African-American voters.
Hillary Clinton has been heavily favored in polls to date to win South Carolina, in part due to Clinton support among African-American voters.
http://www.npr.org/2016/02/10/466276101/bernie-sanders-dines-with-al-sharpton-in-harlem -
It must suck to have to kiss Al Sharpton’s ass to stay in the running for the White House.
Maybe if he gets elected he can do the world a favor and send Al a cruisemissilegram.
Paired up with the race pimpin’ pastor.
Priceless.
Maybe Barney Sanders was not there begging for the Black vote, maybe he was there to tell the race pimpin’ pastor he wasn’t paying his fair share.
People Jailed for Owing Less Taxes Than Al Sharpton
By Elizabeth MacDonald Published February 05, 2015
According to a New York Times’ review of government records last fall, the MSNBC host and civil rights activist personally faces federal tax liens for more than $3 million in back taxes owed, and state tax liens of $777,657. So in total, Sharpton reportedly owes more than $3.7 million in back taxes. His other two for-profit businesses, Raw Talent and Revals Communications, (both now defunct) owe anywhere from $717,000 to more than $800,000, based on state and federal tax liens, reports from the Times and National Review indicate. Revals Communications also either didn’t file its tax returns, or underpaid its tax bills from 1999 to 2002.
Sharpton’s National Action Network also owed more than $813,000 in federal back taxes as of December of 2012, according to the nonprofit’s recent filings. At one point, the National Action Network’s tax liability more than doubled last decade, jumping from $900,000 in 2003 to almost $1.9 milion in 2006. In 1993, Sharpton also had entered a guilty plea for the misdemeanor of failing to file his New York State income-tax return. Sharpton has also said the National Action Network had once given him a loan to pay for his daughters’ tuition, which is a violation of the law.
Sharpton has heatedly denied the tax evasion claims. “The (New York Times’) story is at best misleading and totally out of context,” Sharpton has said, adding, “Every time there’s a Sean Bell or a Ferguson or a Trayvon Martin, we go through my taxes.”
http://www.foxbusiness.com/…/05/people-jailed-for-owing-less-taxes-than-al-sharpton.html - 231k -
Sharpton is a black Trump.
Thanks to that post, I’m doomed to wake up later this evening in the middle of a very scary nightmare.
“A government that robs Peter to pay Paul
can always depend on the support of Paul.”
- George Bernard Shaw
Paul, of Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs pays Hillary for speeches and donate to Obama and co.
The Free sh#t army votes for them.
Peter is middle class.
Barney Sanders and Hillary are out on stage trying to out free sh#t each other.
the free shit shifts from Too Big To Fail to health care and education.
take your pick
“the free shit shifts from Too Big To Fail to health care and education.”
Sure it does, just like Obama said it would right?
pop!
Yahoo announces deep layoffs.
“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes,”
Yahoo is the AOL of the 21st century. It’s been looted and raped, and now all that’s left are the incompetents milking it one paycheck at a time.
Time to hire Carly Fiorina for CEO and put the old dog down.
Got gold?
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2016/02/11/lines-around-the-block-to-buy-gold-in-london-banks-placing-unusually-large-orders-for-physical/
Is Trump a big bad governmentarian wolf in sheep’s clothing?
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Review & Outlook
Trump’s Eminent Disdain
Donald is wrong about the Keystone Pipeline and property rights.
Feb. 10, 2016 7:06 p.m. ET
You can’t build a real estate empire unless government helps you snatch private property, or so says Donald Trump, who routinely defends eminent domain as an inevitable business reality. Maybe he needs broader business experience.
…
So Trump avidly supports both torture and for-profit eminent domain.
“But he’s such a big middle finger to the establishment!”
Apparently it’s different if The Establishment is bending over and taking it in the back door for big real estate development interests.
How would you feel about having curious high school boys ogle your naked sixteen-year-old daughter when they dress out for gym class in the same locker room?
It’s the law in California.
That is why you take your kids out of government schools. Problem solved. Bonus: You can teach them about things the government does not want to tell them: That government murdered 262 million people in the 20th century, teach them to read “No Treason: The Constitution of No Authority” by Lysander Spooner and read his other writings. Government won’t mention that guy.
Transgender students have a legal right in California to view the private parts of whichever sex makes them feel most comfortable.
Amazing. I never heard of transgenders in the 60s and 70s in school. I read about them only in sci fi books. The closest was a Robert A Heinlein novel in which a young woman was brain dead and an old man with a healthy brain but old heart had his brain transplanted into the woman.
Transgender student in boy’s locker room sparks debate
Posted 8:37 AM, February 10, 2016, by Jaime Chambers,
Updated at 08:43am, February 10, 2016
POWAY, Calif. – Parents and students packed the Poway Unified School District board meeting Tuesday night to discuss complaints about a transgender student who has been changing for physical education classes in the boy’s locker room.
“I walked in and saw a student who I’ve known as a girl for years but now claims she’s a boy,” freshman Jonathan Franz said.
…
The issue of locker room choice was addressed by the California legislature two years ago when it passed anti-transgender discrimination legislation. According to the law, students can use locker rooms based on the sex they identify with.
Many of the students and parents at the packed board meeting carried signs supporting the transgender student and calling for equality for transgender students.
“How can they drag this unwilling child into this storm of media scrutiny,” said one attendee.
The board took no action on the issue. Now it is up to the superintendent to determine how to address the complaints of student who feel uncomfortable dressing down in front of a transgender student while protecting that student’s legal rights.
It’s the law in California.
Has been for a few years, right? Any problems reported?
Yes. See post above.
Doesn’t sound like much of a problem.
It is for members of religious groups who believe it is wrong for teenage boys and girls to see each other naked. I realize this silent majority has no rights under California law, particularly in the face of the militant LGBT minority, but that doesn’t make the problem go away.
Alright, I put the old bean to work and I’ve devised an ingenious solution: Smocks for everybody! A big loose opaque smock (like a sleeveless mumu) that you put on and change under. Everyone has privacy, problem solved at low cost.
Next!
The news that a boy is dressing out in the girl’s locker room at Poway High School has yet to hit the MSM at this point, though I have on good information that this is the case.
My guess is that despite the complete absense of gender bias in the typical Californiacators’ ultra-politically-correct world view, the idea of boys invading the girls’ locker room will spark a greater amount of outrage than the opposite gender-orientation case. Don’t most high school boys secretly crave the opportunity to see female students in the buff?
Another day, another huge dent in Japanese share prices…
NIKKEI 225 Index NIK
11:35 AM JST 02/12/16
14874.65
-838.74 -5.34%
Must see video, about to post!
Johnny Depp Puts On A Bad Toupee As Donald Trump In Hilarious ‘Biopic’ — Watch
Wed, February 10, 2016 10:49am EST by Lauren Cox
Johnny Depp, is that REALLY you? The actor is completely unrecognizable under a terrible toupee, an orange tan, and the grainy 90’s quality of this absolutely hilarious Donald Trump biopic. Click inside to WATCH!
Hopefully Donald Trump, 69, isn’t a huge Pirates Of The Caribbean fan, because Johnny Depp, 52, just portrayed him in a hilarious mock biopic.
Well, at least now we know who to call when the time comes to make a film about the rise and (inevitable) fall of Donald Trump! Believe it or not, Johnny Depp portrays him so excellently in this Funny Or Die skit that you won’t believe it’s not a real trailer from the 90’s. Okay, to be fair the grainy “old school” film helps, but seriously — Johnny nails the role.
In the super funny video below, Johnny is Donald, even rocking the yellow/orange toupee and what appears to be a heavy spray tan. The so-called “trailer” is for a biopic based on Donald’s own book, The Art Of The Deal. However, it totally makes fun of the Donald and even makes him seem like a scary mafia type with his art of “persuasion” and “intimidation.”
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Send-a-valentines-day-card-to-a-patient-at-Children’s Hospital Los Angeles -
http://abc7.com/society/send-a-valentines-day-card-to-a-patient-at-chla/1197164/
OK HHBers- How about finding some dumb VTD jokes online and copy/paste them to a kid to cheer them up.
Start this in your area. Tough place to be, especially as a kid.
Those cards are a bit…. Molestey?
“Smash a B*tch’s Computer” – Female Student Attacked, Punched in Chest, Because of Trump Sticker on Her Computer
Clifford Durand punched or shoved Brianna Algazali after class
Gateway Pundit | Jim Hoft - February 11, 2016
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-02-11 19:48:01
Stupid should hurt, no matter the gender.
Comment by phony scandals
2016-02-11 21:48:29
“Stupid should hurt, no matter the gender.”
Ah yes, men who hit women, one small step above child molester.
Congrats Central Scrutinizer
Any insights to what Janet Yellen said or did that so traumatized traders this week? Was it just the deer-in-the headlights “I just saw all phantom” look in her eyes, or something she said that sent investors scurrying for cover of gold or Treasurys?
Japan stocks fall more than 5% as global rout continues
by Jethro Mullen
@CNNMoneyInvest
February 11, 2016: 11:01 PM ET
Are stocks a bargain right now?
The rout continues.
Major Asian stock markets fell Friday as investors continued to dump riskier assets. Japan’s Nikkei tumbled 5.3% to its lowest level in more than 15 months. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong dropped 1% after plunging 3.9% the day before.
In South Korea, trading was temporarily halted on the Kosdaq, a market focused on small technology companies, after it nosedived more than 8%. The country’s main index, the Kospi, was down around 1.7%.
The falls in Asia follow losses in U.S. and European markets on Thursday amid worries over low oil prices and the health of the banking sector.
The Japanese stock market had been closed for a public holiday Thursday, so it had missed a full day of brutal trading. Stocks in Tokyo have been hammered this week as investors have turned to assets considered safer bets, like government bonds and Japan’s currency, the yen.
The yen’s recent surge — it’s now at its strongest level against the dollar since October 2014 — is bad news for big Japanese companies because it hurts exports. It also undermines efforts by the Bank of Japan to stimulate the country’s struggling economy.
The central bank cut a key interest rate into negative territory two weeks ago, a move that triggered a drop in the yen. But that decline has been more than offset since then by the yen’s gains, underscoring the challenges facing central banks in the current turmoil.
Cheap oil has continued to alarm investors.
U.S. crude oil plunged below the threshold of $27 a barrel Thursday, hurting stocks. It later recovered somewhat and climbed back above $27 a barrel after Dow Jones reported comments from an official from the United Arab Emirates about the possibility output cuts.
On Friday morning in Asia, it was trading around $27.50 a barrel.
Mainland Chinese stock markets have been closed all week for the Lunar New Year holiday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets will reopen Monday.
…
Stockswatch
Stocks dive to lowest level in nearly 2 years
by Matt Egan
February 11, 2016: 4:48 PM ET
What is a bear market?
The crash in oil prices continues to ruin your portfolio.
U.S. stocks took another punch to the gut on Thursday as investors freaked out over oil diving back below $27 a barrel.
After a day of wild trading swings, the S&P 500 lost another 1.2%. The index, which represents 500 of the largest U.S. public companies, closed at its lowest level since April 2014.
The Dow ended the day down 255 points after falling as much as 412 points. The index has now lost an incredible 1,765 points this year. The Nasdaq fared better, sinking 0.4%. However, the tech-heavy index is still flirting with its first bear market since the Great Recession.
“There’s a broad-based lack of confidence,” said Anthony Valeri, investment strategist at LPL Financial. “Everything suggests this market is heading lower in the short term. Psychology is too frail.”
Global markets are also in turmoil. A global stock market benchmark known as the MSCI all-country equity index officially fell into a bear market on Thursday. It’s now down more than 20% from its record high in May.
The latest market mayhem reflects how anxious investors remain over the slowdown in global growth and the health of large European banks.
Oil crash deepens
But the main focus continues to be oil, which plummeted 6% to as low as $26.05 a barrel on Thursday. That’s the weakest price since May 2003.
Oil prices recovered a little and went back above $27 a barrel after Dow Jones reported an official from the United Arab Emirates said OPEC is “ready to cooperate” on output cuts. However, it’s not clear the UAE official was signaling a policy shift. He also noted non-OPEC producers are already cutting back due to the decline in prices.
The intense focus on crude shows that while cheap oil is great for consumers, it’s fueling lots of turmoil on Wall Street. Investors fear it’s a bad omen, signaling something wrong with the underlying economy. That’s despite the fact that many believe the oil crash has been driven by an epic supply glut, not an alarming decline in demand.
The oil collapse is also causing trouble for energy companies, with dozens filing for bankruptcy over the past year and many others slashing jobs.
“People are losing jobs in the oil patch. Will it create a domino effect to other parts of the economy? That’s the fear,” said Valeri.
Bank jitters grow amid negative rates
Fears are also on the rise about the big banks that loaned money to energy companies and expectations that rates will fall even lower.
Central bankers in Japan, Europe and Sweden have already embraced negative rates and Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen said the U.S. is “taking a look” at negative interest rates, though she didn’t indicate such a move was likely anytime soon.
European banks have been plunging in recent weeks. Shares of Societe Generale (SCGLF), one of France’s largest banks, tumbled 13% on Thursday after reporting poor results. Other big banks like Credit Suisse (CS) and Deutsche Bank (DB) also fell sharply.
“European banks are suffering from a crisis of confidence,” Michael Block, chief strategist at Rhino Trading Partners, wrote in a client note.
U.S. banks also got crushed again, led by a 7% drops for Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C). The S&P 500’s financial sector is the worst performing group this year, down 17%.
PIMCO warned in a report on Thursday that negative rates may be having a “chilling effect” on financial markets and carry “unknown consequences.”
…
CNN Money
Investing Guide
Why people are freaking out about cheap oil
by Matt Egan
February 11, 2016: 1:46 PM ET
Why oil’s plunge is freaking out the stock market
The latest plunge in oil prices is putting a smile on the faces of millions of Americans. But should it?
Sure, the stunning crash in oil prices below $27 a barrel seems great for consumers because it’s driven gas at the pump to nearly $1 a gallon in some places. And the thinking is that it should help boost the U.S. economy, with people spending their gas savings.
But cheap oil is also causing mayhem in global stock markets. The financial headlines at the start of 2016 are downright scary. With that backdrop, any euphoria over low oil prices is questionable. Here’s why:
It’s rocking your retirement account: The Dow has plummeted 1,800 points so far this year and CNNMoney’s Fear & Greed Index is flashing “extreme fear.” You’re not going to be happy when you open your 401(k) statement. The freakout on Wall Street has been largely driven by the crash in oil. It’s caused energy profits to plunge and slammed stocks like Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP).
Oil companies are dying: The U.S. energy boom was fueled by expensive drilling technology that was designed for far higher oil prices and paid for with lots of debt. Those loans are now much harder to pay off. Oil and natural gas bankruptcies spiked 379% last year, according to consulting firm Gavin/Solmonese. Many more are expected to succumb to financial trouble in the coming months.
Big banks are bracing for losses: It’s never a good sign when the country’s financial lifelines are under stress. Large U.S. banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) that helped bankroll the energy boom are already setting aside billions to cover potential loan losses in the oil industry. Investors are worried about imploding energy loans for European banks like Deutsche Bank (DB). High yield bonds in your investing portfolio wont be looking good either — Standard & Poor’s warned that half of all energy junk bonds are at risk of defaulting.
Pink slips are flying in the oil patch: Profits at energy giants Chevron and Exxon Mobil fell over 50% around the middle of last year. No wonder many American oil companies, including Halliburton (HAL) and ConocoPhillips (COP) have aggressively slashed expenses to counter lower earnings. Government statistics indicate the energy industry slashed 130,000 jobs in 2015. Actual job losses that include oil-related businesses are likely higher.
Cheap oil could signal trouble in the global economy: When economies are booming, they consume lots of oil — and vice versa. That’s why Wall Street is worried that the drop in energy prices suggests the global economy is slowing down more than already feared. A severe global slowdown would be very bad news for large U.S. companies like Coca-Cola (KO) and McDonald’s (MCD) to Caterpillar (CAT) that serve customers abroad.
Emerging markets are getting crushed: The oil crash raises the risk of a full-blown crisis in the emerging market world. Many economies like Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia and Russia are powered by energy exports. Brazil’s longest recession since the 1930s is getting worse and the currencies of Russia and Mexico have plunged to all-time lows. The U.S. has deep trade relations with many of these countries, and that will undoubtedly take a blow.
More trouble in the Middle East: The decline in oil prices adds a new element of instability to the Middle East. Tensions rose sharply earlier this year between OPEC kingpins Saudi Arabia and Iran, which can’t help the already-volatile region.
Home foreclosures are rising in oil states: It’s a big negative for previously-booming oil states like Texas. The Lone Star state experienced a 16% jump in foreclosure activity in 2015, while foreclosures in Oklahoma and North Dakota also rose sharply.
U.S. energy independence dealt a blow: Domestic oil output has skyrocketed in recent years, leaving the U.S. less reliant on countries in the Middle East for energy. However, with some U.S. oil companies closing shop, domestic production has slowed in recent months. That’s exactly what Saudi Arabia wanted when it embarked on a strategy of flat-out production that has kept prices lower than U.S. companies can survive on.
Are people even spending their gas savings? The idea that cheap oil is a net positive for the U.S. hinges on the consumers spending the money they’re saving at the pump. The average household saved $540 in 2015 from cheap gas. However, it remains a bit of a mystery whether that actually led to spending at a significant level. U.S. retail sales actually fell slightly in December despite the fact that gas prices continued to fall at the end of last year.
ft dot com
Central Banks
Global stocks on verge of bear market
Risk aversion driven by central bank doubts
Global Market Overview
11 hours ago
by: Dave Shellock
Thursday 21:00 GMT. A ferocious wave of risk aversion swept through global markets on Thursday, driving global stocks to the cusp of bear market territory, gold to its highest in more than a year and 10-year US Treasury yields to levels not seen since mid-2012.
Analysts said persistent uncertainty about the outlook for global growth — amid sliding oil prices, concerns about a Chinese “hard landing” and worries about the health of the banking sector — had intensified as doubts began to emerge over the ability of central banks to engineer adequate policy responses.
Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve chair, has acknowledged concerns about tightening financial conditions and the risks emanating from recent market turmoil, suggesting that another interest rate rise in March was unlikely.
Indeed, many in the markets now believe that US monetary policy will now be on hold for the rest of the year, at least.
“The fact that the Fed might have to abandon plans to hike for now, and perhaps even for the distant future, is an indictment of much of what’s wrong with the international monetary system,” said Steve Barrow, head of G10 strategy at Standard Bank.
“If the system is broken, with the advanced economies doomed to remain stuck in a sort of low growth/deflationary quagmire, then we feel that the core of that system — the Fed and the dollar — risk losing credibility.”
…