February 16, 2016

A Doom-Loop Of Debt Gorging And Economic Vulnerability

The Toronto Star reports from Canada. “High-end executive rentals are sitting empty, or being rented for far less than they fetched when St. John’s was booming with oil-related business. ‘In the executive rental market, the inventory is triple what it was even two years ago,’ said real estate agent and landlord Larry Hann.”

“He’s been trying to find a renter for a condo that rented for $4,800 a month in 2014, and is now priced at $3,500. It has been on the market for seven months. Home sales in St. John’s fell three per cent in December compared to a year earlier, while prices in the province fell 2.4 per cent to $267,093. Housing starts in 2015 were 20 per cent lower than the year before. There are holes in the ground where condo projects have been shelved. Many for-sale signs have a ‘new price’ sticker as sellers reduce expectations.”

The Evening Standard on the UK. “For the past few years, the developers have been propped up by the swathe of overseas investors coming to London. Suddenly, though, they’re not there any more. The first sign of what may lie ahead comes from the failure of Asian buyers in particular to complete on their purchases. They put down deposits and now I’m told they’re turning round to the builders and telling them to keep the cash, they’re no longer interested. If the developer wants the rest, it will have to sue them for it. They will have to sue, typically in a Chinese court.”

“We’ve grown used to boards going up saying ‘85% sold’ when barely a single brick has been laid. Often, the block has been sold off-plan to investors in centres such as Hong Kong, Moscow, Mumbai or Shanghai. Now, however, all that has changed. China’s stalling economy, Russian sanctions, the falling oil price and the increase in stamp duty on expensive homes have combined to convince them prices are going to dip. They’d rather cut their losses and say goodbye to the £2000 than follow through on buying the apartment. Developers are left holding properties they thought they’d sold. There’s talk of 50%-plus price falls ahead.”

The Malaysian Star. “The idea that property development in Iskandar would satisfy spillover demand from Singapore was tested to its limit last year. Despite the weakened ringgit, which provided a lower entry cost for investors, there was not a notable increase in sales to foreigners, say developers and analysts. Upfront price discounts of up to 20% by some developers also failed to move units. Some property firms have had to re-strategise product offerings, while others deferred new launches.”

“Aggressive marketing of huge developments by Chinese developers has also stoked fears of a glut. Country Garden Holdings said 25% of its 6,000 units at Danga Bay were sold to Singaporeans. The Chinese developer remains undaunted by the slowdown. Its spokesman told The Straits Times: ‘We do not wait for the customers. Our philosophy is that we will create the market and the customers will arrive.’”

Bloomberg on Hong Kong. “In the latest sign that Hong Kong’s property correction is deepening, a parcel of land sold by the government in the New Territories went for nearly 70 per cent less per square foot than a similar transaction last September. The plunge in the price of land comes amid weaker appetite from Hong Kong developers against the backdrop of a nearly 11 percent drop in housing prices since their September high, according to the Centaline Property Centa-City Leading Index. In January, sales of new and secondary homes reached their lowest monthly level since Centaline started tracking data in January 1991.”

“Recent land sales have been dominated by mainland Chinese developers. Hong Kong property companies have been less active, as they’re struggling to sell existing units in their inventories and offering discounts of more than 12 percent to entice new buyers. Nicole Wong, head of property research at CLSA Ltd. said mainland companies are outbidding their Hong Kong counterparts because they expect lower margins and are also anxious to park money offshore given the devaluation of the yuan.”

“‘You see more Chinese developers for these lower entry sites because they are better than their projects in China in terms of profitability,’ she said in a phone interview. ‘And because of the renminbi depreciation, some want to get money out.’”

The Australian Financial Review. “Zaki Ameer, who has amassed a $3.5 million portfolio of 15 negatively geared investment properties in Sydney and Brisbane, says Labor’s plans to limit negative gearing to new homes could trigger a house price crash. ‘It would be a shock to the economy. It would shock investors, which could turn into panic and cause the housing bubble to burst,’ Mr Ameer told The Australian Financial Review.”

“All of Mr Ameer’s investment are in existing properties, as are those he advises his clients to purchase. He said changes to negative gearing would hit property values and also affect the wider economy. ‘Investors buy properties in rundown areas and improve them. This creates construction jobs and rental accommodation. The Labor plans would really scare people. My clients would be freaking out,’ he said.”

Stuff News in New Zealand. “Global banking sector woes are a warning for New Zealand. We are stuck in a doom-loop of debt gorging and economic vulnerability. Banks should be made to hold more capital and aggressively manage the risks at home: a distressed dairy sector and a ridiculously overinflated housing market in Auckland. The Reserve Bank can and should do this.”

“Bank share prices are falling globally and their cost of borrowing is going up. This has spread to the Australian parents of New Zealand’s four major banks. There isn’t the same panic as the Global Financial Crisis of 2007, but then history doesn’t repeat but it rhymes.’

“New Zealand is vulnerable because we have not learnt our lesson. We gorged on debt through to noughties to buy houses from each other at ever higher prices and loads of dairy conversions. When the recession hit in 2007, we paid down some debt. But since then we have gorged on debt again. Relative to the economy, we have as much or more debt in mortgages and farm borrowing, as we did before the last crisis. The borrowing in housing has been mostly into Auckland and the borrowing for farms has been mostly for dairy.”

“The Auckland housing market has turned in recent months. The highest ever median house price was in September of $771,000. In January is was $720,000. If someone borrowed a ‘normal’ mortgage of 80 per cent of the house value in September and they sold in January, they would have lost a third of their investment equity, or $51,000. If house prices go back to where they were in January 2015, they would lose two thirds of their equity. If prices go back to where they were in January 2014, their mortgage would be $36,000 more than their house. It will not take much of a reversal in Auckland house prices for a horror show to unfold.”

“New Zealand banks perpetuated the bull run in Auckland house prices and dairy conversions, by lending freely. When prices were going up, all cracks were papered over. Now that prices have recalled the laws of gravity, banks will see bad debts rise. The Reserve Bank is complicit, as they regulate banks. It’s time the Reserve Bank better regulated banks to stop the repeating cycle of debt gorging and economic vulnerability.”




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64 Comments »

Comment by Jingle Male
2016-02-16 05:01:27

I’m happy my investments are in dollars. It seems to be holding up well in the world today. I remember when it was dropping in value against many currencies.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-02-16 05:49:15

Jingle_Fraud,

Your depreciating shanties are falling irrespective of the means of exchange.

 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2016-02-16 06:08:00

“If the developer wants the rest, it will have to sue them for it. They will have to sue, typically in a Chinese court.”

Bahahahahahaha … my first big laugh of the day.

 
Comment by Combotechie
2016-02-16 06:36:46

“He said changes to negative gearing would hit property values …”

… aka prices …

“… and also affect the wider economy. ‘Investors …”

… borrow lots and lots and lots of money and then they take this enormous quantity of borrowed money and …

“… buy properties in rundown areas and improve them. This creates construction jobs and rental accommodation.”

There it is, a borrowed money economy. Once you are immersed in a borrowed money economy its tough to set yourself free …

“The Labor plans would really scare people. My clients would be freaking out,’ he said.”

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-02-16 07:22:01

“rental accommodation”

Investor speak for jacking up rents. Reality should freak them out.

 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2016-02-16 06:41:02

Stand up material …

“‘We do not wait for the customers. Our philosophy is that we will create the market and the customers will arrive.’”

Ben, you really do need to find a way to include a laugh track with some of your posts.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-02-16 06:54:23

That’s priceless.

 
Comment by Karen
2016-02-16 09:25:48

Like the people we heard about a few days ago in North Dakota (I think) who are investing a lot of money to create a large steakhouse. They said they don’t have any restaurant experience but are “knee deep in common sense.”

They are definitely knee deep in something alright, but it’s not common sense.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-02-16 09:36:48

Neck deep in borrowed money.

 
 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2016-02-16 07:13:34

“It will not take much of a reversal in Auckland house prices for a horror show to unfold.”

Here I was thinking that a $771,000 average house price was a horror show.

Comment by Jingle Male
2016-02-16 08:48:45

It is. That’s why a laugh track is needed!

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-02-16 08:55:10

Here I was thinking that a $771,000 average house price was a horror show.

Especially when you consider that Kiwiland is primarily an agricultural economy. Bay Area prices, flyover economy. What could possibly go wrong?

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-02-16 07:34:57

‘Curtin University associate professor Steven Rowley disagrees, arguing that negative gearing should be “high on the agenda for any discussion of tax reform” in addition to the capital gains tax discount.’

“I am more concerned with the argument that ‘average Australians’ cannot enter the property ownership market because it is too expensive and one of the reasons for this are current tax concessions which encourage investment activity in property,” he said. “Certainly the favourable tax treatment offered on investment property does distort the market and has a negative impact on the ownership side of housing affordability,” Dr Rowley said.’

“The total removal of negative gearing would have an impact on the housing market but probably not as great an impact as many think as most investors seek the majority of their returns through capital growth rather than through income flows,” he said.’

Comment by Combotechie
2016-02-16 07:49:04

“The total removal of negative gearing would have an impact on the housing market but probably not as great an impact as many think as most investors seek the majority of their returns through capital growth rather than through income flows,” he said.’

“capital growth” = rising prices. Rising prices as a result of available money, money made available for negative gearing.

Take away the money and you take away the price rise - the “growth”.

Let’s revisit this statement: “… most investors seek the majority of their returns through capital growth rather than through income flows.”

Which means “most investors” will lose their incentive to invest.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2016-02-16 07:58:39

“capital growth”

Must be a pretty difficult concept for an associate professor.

Without credit your capital will still grow to the sky. Never mind that without credit you have no capital to begin with.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
Comment by snake charmer
2016-02-16 07:53:03

Where have we seen this before? It’s not like the boom-bust cycle is a mystery to anyone, yet the failure to recognize that good times won’t last forever is repeated, over and over again. It must be basic to human psychology or something.
____________________________/

“The contents of a family’s life — an oven, a side table, old magazines — are unloaded from a truck into a yard overflowing with pickups, snowmobiles, motorcycles, boats and trailers at Fitzpatrick’s Auctioneers.

The lot has become a graveyard for toys that were easily afforded in past lives built on oil money, an elegy for Newfoundland’s crude-tied boom.

‘If you had asked me 15 years ago if I thought the ass was going to fall out of Alberta, no, absolutely not,’ she said.

‘But it happened. It did. And a lot of people are suffering.’”

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2016-02-16 08:10:31

“Just like the workers who bought new homes and toys with their newfound oil money, the provincial government saw the sudden influx of revenue as a chance to spend on sorely needed infrastructure and social programs. It did not set aside a rainy-day fund, as Alberta had.

“The reliance on oil — and I would argue to the expense of the development of other areas of economic potential — hasn’t set us up well for the situation we’re in now…”

Weekend at Bernanke’s on a global scale.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-02-16 10:01:11

That is an unusual article for the Toronto Star, as they are almost always pro-REIC. It’s long too, going into eateries, all the toys being dumped. The photo of the loser standing next to a snowmobile was funny. These people are fooked. And what’s more, most of them know it.

‘If you had asked me 15 years ago if I thought the ass was going to fall out of Alberta, no, absolutely not’

Still a little anger there. A Canadian, cursing?

I bet I could have asked you 15 months ago and you wouldn’t have had a clue. I have tried to warn Canadians for years this was coming. These ridiculous UHS shenanigans in Vancouver are going to blow up in your faces.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-02-16 11:01:41

Saw $1.36 gas today in Longmont.

Will it drop to $1?

Comment by redmondjp
2016-02-16 20:30:18

Was that for regular 85-octane for for E85?

I was in Colorado Springs a few weeks ago and E85 was 20 cents less expensive per gallon IIRC.

 
 
Comment by rms
2016-02-16 21:20:28

“Renee Pottle was laid off from an oil industry job.”

She’ll survive the shake-out just fine, IMHO.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-02-16 07:47:42

Apple iPhone Sales In China Fall Off Cliff In January

‘Meanwhile, Samsung’s smartphone sales were cut in half in January vs. December, Zhang said.’

“Since people usually buy smartphones as a Chinese New Year gift, January is usually a solid month,” Zhang said. “We also believe the smartphone market has not bottomed yet and that the overall slowing macro affecting consumer spending is now becoming a real concern since we are seeing more layoffs in Chinese companies (different from the 2008-2009 situation).”

Comment by Jingle Male
2016-02-16 08:51:56

Contagion. Coming to a neighborhood near you.

It may arrive in Silicon Valley just in time for Apple’s new spaceship HQ to start the new ignition sequence. Maybe the stock will get down to $2 again.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-02-16 09:00:18

‘Eight years after the financial crisis, the world is coming to grips with an unpleasant realization: serious weaknesses still plague the global economy, and emergency help may not be on the way.’

‘Sinking stock prices, flat inflation, and the bizarre phenomenon of negative interest rates have coupled with a downturn in emerging markets to raise worries that the economy is being stalked by threats that central banks - the saviors during the crisis - may struggle to cope with.’

‘Meanwhile, commercial banks are again a source of concern, especially in Europe. Banks were the epicenter of the 2007-9 crisis, which started over excessive loans to homeowners with shaky credit in the United States and then swept the globe into recession.’

‘Some of the recent tumult may be an overreaction by jittery investors. And the rock-bottom interest rates are partly a result of easy money policies by central banks doing their best to stimulate growth in the years since the crisis.’

‘With interest rates below zero in some cases, it’s much harder for central banks to apply more stimulus if needed. Low rates and stimulus in the form of bond purchases - using some $3.6 trillion in newly printed money in the case of the Fed - have driven up stocks worldwide. Yet inflation has remained quiescent. U.S. consumer prices fell 0.1 percent in December. European inflation is only 0.4 percent annually, despite massive ECB stimulus.’

‘So markets may be realizing this is one downturn where the central banks can’t ride to the rescue as before.’

On this:

‘the rock-bottom interest rates are partly a result of easy money policies by central banks’

Easy money should result in higher rates, not lower. Negative interest rates are insanity on the face of it, but look at how calmly it’s being discussed.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-02-16 13:55:01

Easy money should result in higher rates, not lower.

I didn’t quite follow that, Ben; can you elaborate?

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-02-16 14:17:38

Back in the 80’s, I would around central America and see CD’s offered at 20% and higher. This was because these countries had lots of easy money and inflation. Easy money should cause inflation, but it isn’t and hasn’t since the mid-90’s. Look at this:

‘the bizarre phenomenon of negative interest rates’

It’s bizarre alright. We are witnessing events people wouldn’t have believed could exist 10 or 20 years ago.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2016-02-16 15:12:58

When I was in Argentina in 2000, I saw a Buenos Aires bank offering a CD that paid 6% interest, which I thought was low for Latin America, until I looked closer and saw that the figure was 6% per month. The hyperinflation of the 1980s was so bad that at times you would have lost ground on a certificate that paid 6% per week.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-02-16 09:02:15

“Buybacks Must Continue: AAPL, IBM Unveil Major Debt Issuance To Fund Shareholder-Friendliness”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-16/buybacks-must-continue-aapl-ibm-unveil-major-debt-issuance-fund-shareholder-friendli

What do you do when you’re losing money hand over fist, deep in debt and your product sucks?

Borrow money to buy your own stock.

 
 
Comment by ocsandrenter
2016-02-16 07:58:30

“Zaki Ameer, who has amassed a $3.5 million portfolio of 15 negatively geared investment properties in Sydney and Brisbane.”

Too bad the article doesn’t dig into how much debt this ding dong has also “amassed” in acquiring his 3.5 million Empire of debt, is what I suspect. And when the tide finally goes out for good, this naked swimmer will be flopping about with zillions of similar fools, and I can’t wait to see the stunned looks on their faces.

Neil, please pass the popcorn.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-02-16 08:10:26

“Empire of debt”

I like it. Sounds like a few people we all know.

Comment by redmondjp
2016-02-16 20:31:29

Sounds like an HBO TV show to me.

 
 
Comment by Jingle Male
2016-02-16 09:03:28

I am traveling to Sydney in a couple of months and look forward to giving the HBB a report. Zaki may be singing a different tune by then, but he will likely blame it all on the governments proposed limits on leverage.

He did write a book, “Dream It, Design It, Do It!”. Sounds like he should work for the Nike Property Fund!

This, from his bio: “…..at the age of 19 his family ran into trouble in business (now thankfully recovered) and was unable to support him any more.”

Maybe he will follow in daddy’s footsteps.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-02-16 08:12:30

‘Malaysian financier Low Taek Jho has attracted attention for his flashy lifestyle and real estate deals, as well as his connections to the prime minister’s family and the government’s troubled investment fund.’

‘Now Low is once again creating buzz in the art world. Since Feb. 3, he has sold works by Claude Monet, Pablo Picasso and Jean-Michel Basquiat, according to three people familiar with the matter. They fetched about $54 million (S$75 million), with unusually steep losses on at least two pieces.’

‘The artworks consigned by Low were among the top lots at Sotheby’s evening auction of Impressionist, modern and contemporary art in London this month. All three had been pledged as part of the collateral for a loan of about $100 million from Sotheby’s Financial Services, two of the people said, asking not to be named because the information is private.’

‘Low fielded questions last year over Malaysia’s government investment fund, 1Malaysia Development Bhd., whose advisory board is headed by Prime Minister Najib Razak. 1MDB has been the subject of overlapping investigations in Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong amid allegations of financial irregularities. Low told newspapers that he provided informal consulting to the fund, didn’t break any laws and wasn’t being investigated.’

‘The 34-year-old financier has coveted the spotlight, partying with Paris Hilton and appearing on the red carpet with singer Alicia Keys. He also posed for a photo with Leonardo DiCaprio at the 2013 Paris premiere of “The Wolf of Wall Street,” produced by a company co-founded by Prime Minister Najib’s stepson Riza Aziz, a longtime friend of Low’s.’

‘Low turned heads in the art world in 2013 and 2014 with a shopping spree for trophy pieces. While he personally examined the works and negotiated prices, one of the people said, it’s unclear whether he used his own money, family money or made investments for clients.’

‘The losses on a Picasso and Basquiat show how quickly fortunes can change even at the top-tier of the art market. Prices have been climbing since 2010, helped by the arrival of newly wealthy investors from emerging economies seeking status symbols and more assets to hold their money. Participants now are questioning whether values will hold up amid this year’s global market rout and a drop in art auction sales.’

“The auction market is quite unforgiving,” said David Nash, co-owner of Mitchell-Innes & Nash gallery in New York. “The buyers don’t like to see things come back so quickly. They don’t find the works so attractive the second time around. A lot of the resistance has to do with the fact that the work is no longer fresh. A lot of it has to do with the perception that the seller has overpaid.”

‘Questions about Low’s ties to the family of Malaysia’s prime minister had surfaced in a February 2015 New York Times article. Starting in about 2010, the article said, Low used a shell company to buy a Park Laurel condo in Manhattan for about $24 million, and then resold it to a shell company controlled by Riza, the prime minister’s stepson. Low also snapped up a $17.5 million Beverly Hills mansion and resold it to Riza. A Low shell company also bought a Time Warner Center condo for about $31 million.’

‘Low said the transactions were done “on an arm’s-length basis” and denied “engaging in any wrongful conduct in relation to the prime minister and his family,” according to a statement issued by his spokesman and cited in the article.’

‘Low still owns Basquiat’s 6-foot-tall and 7-foot-wide painting, “Dustheads,” according to a person familiar with the situation. He bought the 1982 canvas at Christie’s in May 2013 for US$48.8 million. That was almost double the presale’s minimum target of $25 million. The price remains a record for the artist at auction.’

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-02-16 08:48:36

Basquiat’s 6-foot-tall and 7-foot-wide painting, “Dustheads”

It is ugly and horrific.

Comment by snake charmer
2016-02-16 09:21:05

That particular one, I don’t like. But I do like “Profit I,” formerly owned by Metallica drummer Lars Ulrich. Since the Fed decided to make punishing savers our national economic policy, I’ve often felt like throwing my hands up in that manner when I get my Form 1099-INT.

http://www.wikiart.org/en/jean-michel-basquiat/profit-i

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-02-16 10:04:49

‘whose advisory board is headed by Prime Minister Najib Razak’

This is the guy who said, when asked where he got over $600 million, “the Saudi’s gave it to me.”

‘The auction market is quite unforgiving,’ said David Nash, co-owner of Mitchell-Innes & Nash gallery in New York. ‘The buyers don’t like to see things come back so quickly. They don’t find the works so attractive the second time around. A lot of the resistance has to do with the fact that the work is no longer fresh. A lot of it has to do with the perception that the seller has overpaid.’

You mean the money launderer over-paid? I’m thinking the art market might be in sort of a phony-money bubble David. Can you wait tables?

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Comment by Jingle Male
2016-02-17 03:15:21

…and I heard it only cost $55/SF to make, so 42 x 55 = $2,310.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-02-17 05:40:47

But you went ahead and paid triple that amount for some run down depreciating shanties and doubled down on those losses by financing.

Brilliant Jingle_Fraud brilliant!

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-02-16 08:23:24

‘Some real estate listings in British Columbia are marketing newly built, potentially vacant properties as personal residences, a deceptive tactic that can encourage buyers to avoid paying the GST and enable sellers to avoid declaring capital gains on multimillion-dollar transactions.’

‘The phenomenon, observed in Vancouver’s high-end housing market, raises the prospect of significant lost revenues through federal tax evasion in a sector already identified by the Canada Revenue Agency as high risk.’

‘As part of an ongoing investigation into the forces that drive Vancouver’s expensive housing market, The Globe and Mail examined hundreds of property listings and marketing materials in the Lower Mainland for evidence of questionable claims by agents.’

‘While there is no way to quantify the scope of the phenomenon, the data suggest various forms and degrees of deception are common. Some have potential tax implications, while others raise ethical questions about a profession that has come under heightened scrutiny from the province and the industry regulator.’

‘Several experienced Vancouver-area agents who spoke with The Globe said they believe the risk of tax evasion is high in the sales of new, multimillion-dollar homes, based on how they see other agents promoting the properties firsthand. The Globe was referred to dozens of recent sales, where brand-new and seemingly vacant homes – some staged with furniture – were being shown to clients as “owner-occupied” – therefore tax-free – when in fact no one appears to have lived in them. In addition, The Globe also found dozens of newly constructed homes currently marketed by agents as GST exempt, an exemption the Real Estate Council of B.C. cautions agents against advertising without the advice of a tax expert.’

‘The Canada Revenue Agency acknowledged this type of tax evasion is a problem in the Vancouver area, where speculation in the housing market has drawn increased scrutiny. The GST is supposed to apply to all sales of new homes, except in rare circumstances.’

‘While it is impossible to demonstrate tax evasion through public records, The Globe reviewed and compared MLS listings, title records, occupancy permit dates, corporate records, property histories and new-home warranties for red flags that indicate risk. More than 50 listings had some evidence of misleading information or questionable claims of tax-exemption on properties marketed as new. The Globe then zeroed in on more than a dozen properties that had multiple flags. The properties were all owned by builders or speculators who purchased a house, knocked it down, constructed a new one and then put it up for sale.’

“There are no exemptions in the GST/HST legislation that would apply to the sale of the home in this scenario,” the Canada Revenue Agency said in a statement. Buyers must pay tax on the first sale of any new house if it was built as a business venture and then put on the market, the agency said.’

‘Despite being newly built and never sold, the homes in question were classified as owner-occupied on Multiple Listing Service data – an indicator the GST would not apply. In each case, the section in MLS property information that asks whether GST is included was left blank.’

‘One luxury home in Vancouver was completed in January, 2015, and immediately put up for sale, for $6.8-million. The GST at that price would be $344,000. New Coast Realty agent Sandra Li took over the listing from another agent in August and advertised the property for several months as new and tax-exempt – or “new home with NO GST!” in the enthusiastic parlance of real estate marketing. Online photos showed pristine, empty rooms. It was built by a small-scale developer, who also owns the house.’

‘Last month, The Globe asked Ms. Li why she promoted it as tax free. “The house is new,” she said, “but it is one year old already.”

‘Two days after The Globe contacted Ms. Li, the ads suggesting the property was GST exempt were removed from real estate agents’ websites. On MLS, the house was then listed as new, but with “GST included.” In January, the property sold for $5.25-million.’

‘Vancouver lawyer Ron Usher, who advises notaries on real estate transactions, said that if a buyer purchases a new house, tax free, they could be on the hook if and when the CRA caught on. Even if the buyer was deceived by a seller or agent, the CRA could put a lien on the property.’

“The buyer would have to pay. And that’s a serious amount of money,” Mr. Usher said. “You have to be very careful about claims of GST exemption.”

‘Alternatively, he said, a buyer who has been misled by a listing could be in for a shock at closing if a lawyer or notary determines the transaction is taxable, an eleventh-hour change that could add hundreds of thousands of dollars to the purchase price. “On every deal, the practice is to have a signed declaration, from the vendor, about the GST status,” he said. “If tax applied, the buyer may have a cause of action against the realtor for misrepresentation.”

‘Since April, the CRA said, 41 people have been audited on speculative Vancouver real estate transactions. They’ve been ordered to pay $1-million in extra taxes, plus another $750,000, in 13 cases of gross negligence. In February, the agency told The Globe it was investigating another 128 cases.’

‘In one typical example, an agent prominently displayed pictures of a palatial $17.8-million home on his personal Chinese-language website. The address listed for the property was on Drummond Drive, on Vancouver’s west side. The Globe visited the address and observed an older, smaller house than the one pictured. On a different website, which featured listings from many agents, the listing showed the same house observed by The Globe. The agent, Wayne Du of Broadway Amex Realty, did not respond to requests for comment, but the misleading listing on his personal site disappeared soon after he was contacted.’

‘Another advertisement, in a magazine, promised investors they could make a million dollars in a year by buying Vancouver property – a reasonable claim by some metrics. The advertisement, promoting agent Roy Yang from Royal Pacific Realty, featured four addresses with sale prices from 2014 and 2015. According to the ad, each had increased in value by a million dollars or more in a year.’

‘Other marketing techniques are so brazen they border on baffling. One Richmond property owner described waking up to a for-sale sign spiked into her front lawn. “I thought, maybe this is a mistake. Somebody put a sign on the wrong property,” Came Fong Tham, who is also a real estate agent, told The Globe. “So, I called the New Coast agent and said: ‘Hey, you have a sign on my lawn!’ And she said: ‘Are you interested in selling? I have clients for you.’ She didn’t apologize that this was the wrong address or anything.” The managing broker of New Coast, Josh Rosenberg, told The Globe “this was not intended to slight anyone. … When the owner called the agent, they removed it right away.”

‘Lynn Yang, a former sales assistant at New Coast Realty, said she was familiar with the technique: Staff would blitz a neighbourhood with signs overnight to give the impression of activity and stir up interest from potential sellers. She said the end goal of all the advertising and promotion is to list or acquire as many properties as possible, then sell to foreign investors who will pay a premium. “I love to see people who are getting rich, but not this way,” Ms. Yang said.’

Comment by bink
2016-02-16 11:55:57

Advertising a property for sale without checking with the owner first, hoping that they will get offers and can convince them to move? Boy howdy, doesn’t that sound like a healthy market?

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-02-16 12:16:11

‘In one typical example, an agent prominently displayed pictures of a palatial $17.8-million home on his personal Chinese-language website. The address listed for the property was on Drummond Drive, on Vancouver’s west side. The Globe visited the address and observed an older, smaller house than the one pictured. On a different website, which featured listings from many agents, the listing showed the same house observed by The Globe. The agent, Wayne Du of Broadway Amex Realty, did not respond to requests for comment, but the misleading listing on his personal site disappeared soon after he was contacted.’

Chinese, eh? Openly advertising tax evasion? Boy have the law and order Canadians gone off their rocker.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-02-16 12:20:20

‘the end goal of all the advertising and promotion is to list or acquire as many properties as possible, then sell to foreign investors who will pay a premium.

Now where is that Vancouver condo guy to tell us there’s no bubble there? Here’s a thought I had one night in 2005; every one of these bubble pesos are going to go away. Some how, some way, it isn’t real and will vanish.

“I love to see people who are getting rich”

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Comment by snake charmer
2016-02-16 15:18:18

The rule of law, which should be the paramount social and economic value in a democratic country, has become contingent on so many things. I don’t even see anyone aggressively defending it.

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Comment by Jingle Male
2016-02-17 03:42:00

…and it goes on for decades.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-02-16 08:41:54

‘Suncorp’s warning on apartment craze’

‘SUNCORP warns about abundance of apartments being built in Australia’s east coast capitals, warning ‘supply is definitely going to exceed the demand’.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-02-16 08:52:41

“Homebuilder Confidence Tumbles To Lowest In 9 Months”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-16/homebuilder-confidence-tumbles-lowest-9-months

If you were a pimping widgets at grossly inflated prices and you knew there were 25 million extra widgets out there and widget demand at 20 year lows and falling, just how confident would you be?

So it is with rapidly depreciating assets like houses.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-02-16 09:45:59

‘They’d rather cut their losses and say goodbye to the £2000 than follow through on buying the apartment. Developers are left holding properties they thought they’d sold.’

They are walking away from more than that in Miami and probably in New York too. How many thousands of these super expensive boxes of air are being built around the world? It’s gotta be in the hundreds of thousands. Safe deposit boxes in the sky indeed.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-02-16 09:49:38

‘In the latest sign that Hong Kong’s property correction is deepening, a parcel of land sold by the government in the New Territories went for nearly 70 per cent less per square foot than a similar transaction last September. The plunge in the price of land comes amid weaker appetite from Hong Kong developers against the backdrop of a nearly 11 percent drop in housing prices since their September high’

See that Janet? That small dot on the horizon, moving quickly toward you. I heard her talk on the radio the other day. She sounded like she was trying to keep some jello in her mouth.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-02-16 09:53:10

‘When the recession hit in 2007, we paid down some debt. But since then we have gorged on debt again. Relative to the economy, we have as much or more debt in mortgages and farm borrowing, as we did before the last crisis’

It’s too late for the Reserve Bank to do anything. And keep in mind the New Zealand central bankers were warning about the bubbles, unlike the Rumpelstiltskin’s running the Federal Reserve.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-02-16 11:05:31

How many thousands of these super expensive boxes of air are being built around the world?

Even if they were affordable, I don’t see the appeal of living in one. Then again, the people who have been buying them don’t actually live in them.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-02-16 11:26:25

They’ll all be Section 8 in ten years.

 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-02-16 09:49:55

San Jose, CA Housing Market Craters; Prices Dive 8% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/san-jose-ca-95111/home-values/

 
Comment by Hargert
2016-02-16 11:27:05

Report from Las Vegas, spoke with a new home builder last week (Richmond) who is selling houses in the low 400s. The wife liked the house but we said the price was too high for what we are comfortable with. Stated that prices would be going up next month. Will be keeping an eye on it to see if it does or not. Builders here still think they are on track for 5-8 percent increase for next year.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-02-16 13:11:24

The question is; Are they actually selling anything. Even at half that price…

Comment by Hargert
2016-02-16 14:08:07

Yes I have seen several buyers in the office when we visit and there are people in the community but I do not have any real numbers.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-02-16 15:10:26

Yeah I’d say it’s safe to say they’re not selling much. Not at that massively inflated price considering housing demand is at 20 year low.

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Comment by In Colorado
2016-02-16 15:40:30

$400K in Lost Wages? Let me guess, the hotel/casino doormen are getting paid $80K again. I still remember that anecdote from the previous bubble.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-02-16 15:45:14

Just looked at Richmond’s website. Looks like they’re charging ~$100/sq foot, which for Vegas seems a bit steep, unless those houses have very high end interiors, which I doubt.

Comment by Hargert
2016-02-16 16:47:53

No not very high end by any means yet they seem to be selling still as I do see houses going up and people moving in. It has to stop at some point but when?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-02-16 16:52:22

Doubtful. The data suggests they’re not selling. Not at that price anyways.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-02-16 17:01:57

Las Vegas, NV Real Estate and Homes for Sale
12,948 properties found

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Las-Vegas_NV/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,mfd-mobile-home,multi-family-home

Price reduced 4,095 properties found

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Las-Vegas_NV/type-single-family-home,condo-townhome-row-home-co-op,mfd-mobile-home,multi-family-home/shw-pr

New Homes for Sale Discount, Las Vegas, NV - Lennar
http://www.lennar.com/new-homes/nevada/las-vegas/…/ne...
Lennar Corporation
Get up-to-date pricing & availability, special incentives, answers to your questions …

There’s a bunch more of these.

 
Comment by Hargert
2016-02-17 16:54:07

Thanks for the info, is there any good site for tracking housing inventory over time? Curious to keep an eye on how things are moving or building up. It does seem like I see more signs for sale popping up.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-02-17 10:18:50

crater

 
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