March 10, 2016

Bits Bucket for March 10, 2016

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 03:29:55

Poor China’s economy just can’t seem to ever get out of the woods!

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 03:35:04

What they need are GSEs to transform ordinary impoverished Chinese workers into special wealthy Chinese home owners.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 03:42:14

Struggling to envision goats and chickens residing in high rise apartments…

Awash in Empty Homes, China Asks Migrant Workers to Settle Down
Wuhan, in Hubei Province in central China, in August. The housing glut is one of the biggest drags on China’s economy.
Wang Zhao / Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
March 9, 2016

BEIJING — Migrant workers are the unsung heroes of China’s economic miracle. Numbering more than 270 million, they abandon their impoverished farms and villages to move to the cities, where they run the factories and build the highways and high-rises that have made China’s growth the envy of the world.

Now, as China’s economy slows, the country’s leaders have a new mission for them: Buy homes.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2016-03-10 11:07:30

Next up……….stories about Chinese strawberry pickers, with $800K “Fog a Mirror” mortgages.

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Comment by Combotechie
2016-03-10 05:37:16

What they need are customers in the U.S. to once again go crazy in the David Lereah fashion of going crazy by prestoing large gobs of money into existence and into action by converting home equity (real or imagined home equity) into large gobs of spending cash and then rushing down to Walmart and other Chinese distribution outlets and throwing these large gobs of cash at the cash registers.

Yerp (Europe) too.

Comment by Combotechie
2016-03-10 05:47:36

At root the “China Miracle” was a function of the insanity that inflicted and infected those who live in the Western World AND it was a function of the money that was conjured up to finance this insanity.

The insanity remains but the money is no longer able to be conjured up.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 06:13:01

The Miracle was incubated and enabled by the Symbiosis.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 06:19:08

Volcker: U.S. Economic Crisis Imminent
Thursday, 09 Jun 2005 12:00 AM

It’s a recipe for American economic disaster.

On Thursday the Wall Street Journal reported bluntly that “Mr. Volcker thinks a crisis is likely.”

Volcker believes that investor confidence could fade “at some point,” he said, with “damaging volatility in both exchange markets and interest rates.”

“If I were a biologist I’d call this a perfect example of symbiosis,” Volcker said during a February speech at Stanford University.

“Contented American consumers matched against delighted foreign producers. Happy borrowers matched against willing lenders. The difficulty is, the seemingly comfortable pattern can’t go on indefinitely.”

Experts seem to agree that the current situation can’t last.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 06:31:32

I’m thinking the “Miracle” was a $28 Trillion debt mania. This is what held back global deflation. It is falling in on itself.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 16:31:19


Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 03:48:03

CBS Evening News
China’s economic slowdown leaves millions of jobs at stake
Seth Doane
CBS News
Mar 8, 2016 7:26 PM EST

BEIJING — On Wall Street, stocks closed lower — the Dow lost 109 points — in part because of the economic slowdown in China.

The communist government there is struggling to manage enormous debts, shaky stock markets and a growing perception that it may not be equal to the task.

At a roadside Beijing job-fair, those searching for work told CBS News it’s getting tougher.

“Yes, I can feel the pressure,” Niu Sisi told CBS News. “The economy is slowing and industries are facing lots of changes.”

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 03:56:11

Trouble Ahead: What’s Next for the Chinese Economy?
Mar 09, 2016
Business Radio Podcasts
Minyuan Zhao and Barry Naughton on Troubles Facing the Chinese Economy

China’s economy continues its decline, as reports earlier this week revealed that exports had their biggest monthly drop since May 2009. That fall underscores the Chinese government’s announcement last week lowering its economic growth target for 2016 to between 6.5% and 7%, compared with 6.9% last year. Last week, ratings agency Moody’s also said it has lowered its outlook for Chinese government bonds from “stable” to “negative.”

Against that backdrop, China is preparing for millions of layoffs in the steel and coal sectors, while a potential real estate bubble looms. What Beijing could do to manage the fallout and help entrepreneurial activity pick up some of the slack in the economy are open questions, according to experts.

In February, China’s exports fell 25.4% compared to those of a year ago, while imports fell 13.8% over the same period. “[That is] just another sign that the downward forces are substantial in the Chinese economy,” said Barry Naughton, chair of Chinese International Affairs at the School of Global Policy & Strategy at the University of California, San Diego.

Comment by Puggs
2016-03-10 10:44:47

All the stages of grief are baked into the final stages of this financial orgy.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 03:59:23

Is EUQE working according to plan?

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 04:02:17

It’s 1 year since ECB launched QE — here’s where it’s falling short
By Sara Sjolin
Published: Mar 10, 2016 3:47 a.m. ET
Stoxx Europe 600 down 14% since launch; inflation turns negative
AFP/Getty Images
Perhaps not what Mario Draghi envisioned.

This week marks the first anniversary of the European Central Bank’s aggressive quantitative-easing program, meant to deliver a shot in the arm to the flagging eurozone economy and, in particular, help boost inflation.

But a year after its launch, some analysts are questioning QE’s effectiveness.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 04:05:23

Do recent price increases indicate the oil glut is finally abating?

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 04:11:07

Global oil glut set to worsen, says IEA
International Energy Agency warns stocks likely to rise by 2m barrels a day in first quarter despite recent price rise
The price of oil has risen since it tumbled to a 13-year low in January.
Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty
Sean Farrell
Tuesday 9 February 2016 10.19 EST
Last modified on Tuesday 9 February 2016 17.01 EST

The global oil glut is larger than previously thought and the risk of prices falling further has increased, the International Energy Agency has said.

In its monthly report, the IEA warned that the recent respite was likely to be a “false dawn” and market conditions were weaker than the agency believed when it predicted last month the world could drown in supply.

The agency issued its gloomy commentary as Goldman Sachs predicted further volatile price swings and said oil could fall to less than $20 a barrel as global storage capacity runs out.

The price of oil has risen since it tumbled to a 13-year low in January. After falling below $28 a barrel, Brent crude climbed to more than $35 at the end of last month, though that was less than a third of the $115 peak in summer 2014.

Comment by Puggs
2016-03-10 10:39:19

Time to mortgage a 2016 50K F-150 with gas so cheap.

Comment by stewie
2016-03-10 12:17:18

Rollin’ coal on the pineapples.

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Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-10 13:51:15

Odd thing is, If i drive an 8mpg truck, I want the rest of the world driving a Prius to keep my cost down. Why are the big-truck kooks anti Prius? born stupid?

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 04:35:33

China is in contraction. That tells the story for oil, copper, steel and a host of other commodities.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 04:44:59

China’s contraction is the gift that keeps giving for commodities dips buyers.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 06:33:45

Take a look at the long term copper trend. Any buying of dips is picking up nickels in front of a steam roller.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 04:13:10

Hillary and Bernie just gave a green light to Central Americans to send their kids to sneak across the border.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 04:17:16

If you like your creepy government overreach and totalitarian drift, you can keep your creepy government overreach and totalitarian drift.

Comment by Overbanked
2016-03-10 04:19:38

Question on Section 1031 Like Kind Exchanges:

Guy sells old SFR rental for 200, pays off mortgage 60, nets 140. He buys new SFR rental 140 cash, no new mortgage.

Bought old house 80, depreciated 30. Gain is 200 - 80 + 30 = 150.

Tax program is showing no taxable gain, basis of new house is 80, a/d 30, same depreciation over remaining life of OLD house. Plus an entry on Form 8824 of 150 Deferred Gain.

Is this right?

I prepared thousands of tax returns in my prior life as a glorified bookkeeper, but probably 5 or fewer 1031 exchanges. I can’t remember the last time I did one, it’s been that long.

I could SWEAR the rule was that the basis of the new house was the basis of the old house REDUCED by any gain not taxed, BUT NOT LESS THAN ZERO. So I was expecting this guy would have to pay tax on 100 (150 - 80 + 30)

Were the rules changed in the last 20 years or is my memory failing me? I’d like to hear some input before I spend an evening with the Pub and Instructions.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 04:30:12

“Bought old house 80, depreciated 30. Gain is 200 - 80 + 30 = 150.”

That looks alot like bubble math!

Comment by Overbanked
2016-03-10 13:25:14

That’s the way the tax code works. Yeah, his gain is 200 sales price minus 80 what he paid for it, or 120. But, he depreciated and deducted 30 over the last twenty years, so the IRS makes him pay tax on that 30 when he sells.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 06:02:09

Hire a CPA.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 07:13:37

Hey, I’m no tax expert, but your math confuses me.

150 - 140 = 10. not 100.

Comment by Hi-Z
2016-03-10 09:59:45

You are calculating (150-(80+30)), not (150 - 80 + 30).

Comment by scdave
2016-03-10 07:56:27

Guy sells old SFR rental for 200, pays off mortgage 60, nets 140. He buys new SFR rental 140 cash, no new mortgage ??

I see possible problems on several fronts…..I am Not going to step into giving tax advise….I would suggest some deep research or would suggest CPA counsel….Did the transaction already close ?? If yes, its a moot issue other than filing the tax return properly…If no, Contact a third party Intermediary…Fidelity title provides this device but I use these people;

Comment by Overbanked
2016-03-10 13:11:32

Thanks for the links. I’m going to hit the books.

What is interesting, if I am correct, is that this was a change in the tax code that essentially gave a big tax benefit to property owners, similar to the personal residence gain exclusion.

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-03-10 13:54:36

1031 allows people to defer gains as long as they buy another piece of real estate with the proceeds. There are a HUGE number of people who do this…often times with a plan to never pay the tax (get the automatic step-up in basis on death).

Talk about loopholes…the carried interest loophole is peanuts compared to 1031 exchanges.

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Comment by cactus
2016-03-10 10:30:06

Tax program is showing no taxable gain”

you will have to look at the tax program work sheet to see what its doing.

basis of the old house is now 140K not 80 K no?

I just did my taxes but I have never done a 1031 exchange.

I get to input RSU cost bias, ESPP and NSO . fun times.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 04:22:29

How much more financial crack will Draghi feed to the addicted “markets” today to keep the Ponzi markets and asset bubbles levitated?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Oxide
2016-03-10 08:58:22

Technically you’re only eligible for a Darwin if you remove yourself from the gene pool before spreading your stupidity genes. She’s got a four year old, so it’s too late for a Darwin.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 09:19:55

Hey Donk…

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 16:32:44

Anyone who leaves a loaded gun where a four-year-old can get to it is a prime candidate for court-ordered sterilization.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 04:27:18

IEM Presidential Winner-takes-all Election futures prices currently imply a nearly seventy percent chance of a Democrat win in November, without respect to who the candidates are.

The implied probability has climbed steeply with The Candidate Who Must Not Be Named’s recent primary successes.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 04:41:55

Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far.

– Theodore Roosevelt

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 04:43:13

Which candidate best embodies Roosevelt’s insight?

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-10 12:42:42

We need FDR, not TR. Our infrastructure is crumbling.

Comment by Combotechie
2016-03-10 05:40:18

“You can get much farther with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone.” - Al Capone

Comment by Goon
2016-03-10 07:05:05

Washington Times (Moonie rag) reports “Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump said Wednesday that “Islam hates us” and that the United States can’t allow people into the country who have such hatred for the U.S.”

Comment by 10FeetHigher
2016-03-10 07:26:22

Turning it up to 11 ahead of tonight’s debate and next Tuesday.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 07:44:10

How can a religion hate a country? Makes no sense to a non-Trumpling.

Comment by 10FeetHigher
2016-03-10 08:00:42
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Comment by Hi-Z
2016-03-10 09:51:32

“How can a religion hate a country?”

You are always about facts so examine this.
Numerous polls and assessments of the Muslim (Islamic) population in the Mideast show a majority favor the “death to all non-believers” and in particular, the USA and Israel. This belief is widespread and touted publicly.

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Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-10 10:08:55

“Death to America” is right there in the Koran for anybody to read.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 16:37:06

No, but these are among the gems of tolerance that the religion of peace ordains:

“Slay them wherever you find them…Idolatry is worse than carnage…Fight against them until idolatry is no more and God’s religion reigns supreme.” (Surah 2:190-)

“Fighting is obligatory for you, much as you dislike it.” (Surah 2:216)

“Men are tempted [in this life] by the lure of women…far better is the return of God. Say: ‘Shall I tell you of better things than these, with which the righteous shall be rewarded by their Lord? Theirs shall be gardens watered by running streams, where they shall dwell for ever: wives of perfect chastity…” (Surah 3:14, 15)

“The only true faith in God’s sight is Islam.” (Surah 3:19)

“Believers, do not make friends with any but your own people…They desire nothing but your ruin….You believe in the entire Book…When they meet you they say: ‘We, too, are believers.’ But when alone, they bite their finger-tips with rage.” (Surah 3:118, 119)

“If you should die or be slain in the cause of God, His forgiveness and His mercy would surely be better than all the riches…” (Surah 3:156-)

“If you wish to replace a wife with another, do not take from her the dowry you have given her…” (Surah 4:20)

“Forbidden to you are…married women, except those you own as slaves.” (Surah 4:20-, 24-)

“Seek out your enemies relentlessly.” (Surah 4:103-)

“Believers, take neither Jews nor Christians for your friends.” (Surah 5:51)

“Make war on them until idolatry shall cease and God’s religion shall reign supreme.” (Surah 8:36-)

“If you fear treachery from any of your allies, you may fairly retaliate by breaking off your treaty with them.” (Surah 8:51-)

“…make war on the leaders of unbelief…Make war on them: God will chastise them at your hands and humble them. He will grant you victory over them…” (Surah 9:12-)

“It ill becomes the idolaters [non-Muslims] to visit the mosques of God…” (Surah 9:17)

“Fight against such as those to whom the Scriptures were given [Jews and Christians]…until they pay tribute out of hand and are utterly subdued.” (Surah 9:27-)

“It is He who has sent forth His apostle with guidance and the true Faith [Islam] to make it triumphant over all religions, however much the idolaters [non-Muslims] may dislike it.” (Surah 9:31-)

“If you do not fight, He will punish you sternly, and replace you by other men.” (Surah 9:37-)

“Prophet make war on the unbelievers and the hypocrites and deal rigorously with them. Hell shall be their home.” (Surah 9:73)

“Believers, make war on the infidels who dwell around you. Deal firmly with them.” (Surah 9:121-)

“Say: ‘Praise be to God who has never begotten a son; who has no partner in His Kingdom…” (Surah 17:111)

“Fight for the cause of God with the devotion due to Him…He has given you the name of Muslims…” (Surah 22:78-)

“Blessed are the believers…who restrain their carnal desires (except with their wives and slave-girls, for these are lawful to them)…These are the heirs of Paradise…” (Surah 23:1-5-)

“You shall not force your slave-girls into prostitution in order that you make money, if they wish to preserve their chastity.” (Surah 24:33-)

“As for the faithful who do good works and believe what is revealed to Muhammad…He will forgive them their sins…” (Surah 47:1)

“Muhammad is God’s apostle. Those who follow him are ruthless to the unbelievers but merciful to one another.” (Surah 48:29)

“Shall the reward of goodness be anything but good?…Dark-eyed virgins sheltered in their tents…They shall recline on green cushions and fine carpets…Blessed be the name of your Lord…” (Surah 55:52-66-)

Comment by MightyMike
2016-03-10 17:11:33

I have a feeling that you get those from the Koran.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-03-10 17:24:10

I meant to write that you didn’t get them from the Koran.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-10 17:33:05

All the sky wizard books are full of that crap.

Comment by Puggs
2016-03-10 10:03:49

Whelp, Iran has been pretty clear about it from the beginning…

Comment by MightyMike
2016-03-10 11:02:43

It’s only been since 1979. That was the year that they threw out the shah that we installed around 25 years earlier when we overthrew a democratically elected prime minister. Not surprisingly, oil was an issue in the coup.

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Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-10 17:34:39

Installing a brutal puppet dictator that set back their modernization 20 years made them angry? What a bunch of grouches.

Comment by Goon
2016-03-10 07:20:17

These Trump rallies are getting violent, LOLZ. Protesters arrested yesterday in North Carolina, and some black dude got sucker punched as he was being forced to leave.

RNC Cleveland is gonna be a bloodbath.

Comment by scdave
2016-03-10 08:18:04

RNC Cleveland is gonna be a bloodbath ??

Thank You GWB presidency…

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-10 10:10:15

Might be lucrative to be a protester, if trump is truly paying the legal bills of his thugs.

I suspect he’s just talking out his posterior, as usual.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 19:17:47

That was a dick move by a 78-year old Trump supporter, punching a protester as the guy was being removed. Then the cops arrested the black dude that got punched. How messed up is that?

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Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-10 22:59:52

I was shocked… two cops walked right past the smacky guy, and the ones in front tackled the black guy for getting smacked.

I used to think trump staged these protester theatrics, but having actual police involved like that… I don’t know what to think.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-10 23:04:03

All that said, he threw a decent punch for a 78 year old.

Comment by ibbots
2016-03-10 11:18:31

‘Trump yard sign inspires armed standoff that ends in arrest of 3 ‘Hispanic males’’ This is in GA btw.

“Well, they was walking down the street, we was sitting outside,” David Grant told The Washington Post in a telephone interview. “Three Hispanic males grabbed it up, wadded it up, threw it down the road.”

Grant, 43, did not hesitate to confront the man he considered the main offender.

“I went up to him,” Grant said. “I said, ‘Put the sign up, fix it back.’ He just refused, throwing out profanities, walking backwards. I seen he was getting away. I told him he wasn’t going nowhere until he fixed the sign.”

The confrontation grew heated, Grant said.

“He pulls his gun out of his waistband and started it pointing at me,” Grant said. “I said, ‘If you got the balls to pull your gun, shoot it!’” He also said the man with the gun threatened him, saying: “I’m fixing to pop a cap in your ass.”

But Grant found he had backup when his neighbor came outside.

“My neighbor — he’s Hispanic too — said, ‘Hang on, I got you,’ and gets his gun,” Grant said. The neighbor — whom Grant did not wish to name — told the men: “Ain’t nobody shooting him. You don’t go on another man’s property and mess with nothing, just because of the Trump sign.”

The police ended up arresting the 3 offenders.

Grant said the confrontation spoke directly to the issues Trump, his favored candidate, is trying to address.

“Trump stands against all that gang violence and stuff, people coming over here and bringing in guns,” he said. “… That’s what they are doing.”

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-10 12:38:02

My favorite lines from the Trump campaign when Don Lemon challenged him on CNN about his statements regarding illegal immigrants:

“Who’s doing the raping, Don? Who’s doing the raping? Somebody’s doing the raping.”

Heh, applies figuratively also to bankers and the gov’t.

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Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-10 17:35:56

Sounds like a typical educated, thoughtful trumpling.

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Comment by Goon
2016-03-10 07:28:25

Salon real journalists provide a narrative reporting Trump is beginning a “new era of authoritarian politics”

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 05:28:05

More trillions for the already super-rich from “our” central bankers, while debasing every Euro in existence.

Comment by SV guy
2016-03-10 05:53:30

Could a toothless domesticated bear survive in the wild?

Comment by azdude
2016-03-10 06:07:27

probably they are omnivores. do u need teeth to eat berries?

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 06:15:00

Falling housing prices my friend. Falling housing prices.

Santa Monica, CA Housing Market Implodes; Prices Dive 5% YoY On Ballooning Housing Inventory

Comment by viky
2016-03-10 20:35:13

Where do you see a decline on the link you posted? I see a rise of 15.4% over the past year

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 21:14:13

Where do you see a rise on the link I posted? I see a decline of 5% over the past year

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Comment by viky
2016-03-11 12:28:03

One the left (towards the top). Says 15.4% 1 year change

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-03-11 17:35:59

If you ran a linear regression over the past year, I bet it would show neither gain nor loss.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-11 22:31:40

But fell 5% YoY.

Comment by 10FeetHigher
2016-03-10 08:01:42

You calling someone out here ?

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-03-10 06:27:52

San Diego, CA Housing Market Caves; Prices Implode 9% YoY As Sellers Slash

Comment by viky
2016-03-10 20:34:02

Where do you see a decline on the link you posted. I see a rise of 3.5%

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 21:11:00

Where do you see a rise on the link you posted. I see a decline of 9%.

Comment by Muggy
2016-03-10 06:35:24

Brief housing summary for newcomers

Graduated 2000

Moved to NYC 2000-2003, lived with friends or a while, then rented in
Hoboken until building nearly collapsed and was evacuated. Decided NYC wasn’t for me

Moved back to Upstate, NY 2003-2005, lived in crappy rental briefly, then bought small condo, sold two years later for same price, with transaction costs, basically the same as renting (monthly was same, we walked with about $2k).

Moved to St. Pete area in 2005, lived in tiny beach efficiency for a year, paid off student loans, LL jacked rent, told them no thanks, moved to 2br. condo, started grad school, wifey got preggers and LL tried to jack rent when they lost homestead exemption, said no thanks, bubble was peaking, moved into SFR 2br, excellent condition, good location, affordable, wifey got pregnant again, tried to buy 3br., owner died during negotiations, in two days found current rental, signed lease and moved in… that was 2010. Been here since then. Great LLs, great property manager and rent below market. Became part of neighborhood and have strong family network, kids play all over the place, have sleepovers, street ball, all that… Owners decide to retire, now we’re under contract.

I first became aware of the housing myth when I bought the condo in Rochester. It was a wash.

So, now we’re under contract, closing in May.

Ex, you asked for the numbers, so I’ll give it to you straight (with ranges for some privacy). I am posting this so that others may benefit from seeing my metrics and decision process. I’ll also post links so you can see what I am up against.

Rent at time of non renewal was between 1,100 and 1,200
Current market in my hood for rents is $1,700-$2,500. These are rented in days.

Sales price will be between 233-243k. PITI will be $1,770

Family income is $139k, with take home at a little over $8k/mo. Our only debt is $19k balance on auto note.

1770/8000= .22

In a worst case scenario (revert back to two teacher incomes (we’re both currently admin)), we’d be at .34. That would be a stretch. I’m not excited about my hand being forced, but I am also not concerned with the numbers.

We know that the owners declined an offer in 2010 between 210-220k, and this was during bottom between Bubble 1.0 and 2.0, BP Oil Spill (nobody was buying then, Tampa area smelled of burnt plastic), and $8k FTHB credit. At peak, the house was $390, at trough it was a little over $200k.

We will be in this house for at least 13 years until both kids are through K-12.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 08:13:28

A bare mortgage is $1700. Now add in taxes, insurance and deprecation.

Comment by taxpayers
2016-03-10 08:37:48

rent= piti w taxes

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-03-10 09:05:25

Rent=half the cost of buying at current grossly inflated asking prices.

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Comment by DaveBro in SonomaCo
2016-03-10 20:58:13

Do you understand the term “PITI”?

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 21:12:26

Do you understand depreciating asset?

Miami, FL Housing Market Caves; Prices Crater 5% YoY As Declines Spread Statewide

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Comment by taxpayers
2016-03-10 08:35:21

that’s well within all metrics- I’d say you done ok
if piti = rant then w tax deduction u should make up all repairs etc.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 09:06:30

What “metrics”.

Comment by taxpayers
2016-03-10 09:30:32

a price of 120-150 times rent is a good deal these days
my hood is 200 x rent

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Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 09:33:41

Explain how that gets you to an accurately appraised dollar amount adjusted for depreciation.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 09:08:01

Forgive me for a cold response to these numbers.

Is the $5K per year for flood and wind insurance on top of this?

Add maintenance to the equation. “Dilapidation”

“at trough it was a little over $200k.”

At trough was probably 200+% of non-bubble price. Taking this bath should be part of your calculations. $700/mo.

Depending on the fine points it looks like you will be spending somewhere between $250,000 and $350,000 more than me for housing in the next 13 years. Roughly equivalent to 5 years of take home pay if things go well. This is only my slant.

These kinds of decisions cannot be justified on the math. It is an emotional decision. Of some concern is that you will be doubling your monthly expense, and haven’t found the recent past to be much of a “saving friendly” situation.

Comment by Muggy
2016-03-10 09:36:03

No forgiveness needed. This is why I am posting.

PITI is 1,770
This includes flood and wind and taxes

Inspection revealed some possible deal breakers

annihilated flex duct

All three of these were possibility facilitated by a prop mgr who may have omitted information to owner. I like the owners enough to convey this. I have to follow up on some other things first.

Comment by redmondjp
2016-03-10 09:46:12

The first one is the potential biggie. The last one you can fix yourself.

What, specifically is the electrical issue? Miswired outlets? Missing grounds? Ancient electrical panel? Aluminum wiring? I design this stuff for a living, so I don’t get worked up about electron piping.

And what about sinkholes? Any in your area?

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Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 09:47:07

“PITI is 1,770″

Your math isn’t adding up. A bare mortgage at $243k is roughly $1700/month.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 09:56:13

Really? Seems to be more like $1100/mo without downpayment and PMI.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 10:00:46

243k@3%@15yr duration is $1678/month.

Now stack on the

$5000/yr insurance
$_,000/yr taxes

Well over $2500/month.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-03-10 10:53:36

What is it for a 30 year mortgage?

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 11:02:24

Too much.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-10 12:45:27

Why not calculate a 8 yr mort and call it even higher.

the spin zone has been entered

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-03-10 12:55:00

The first month’s payment on that 15-year fully amortizing loan is over $1,000.

If you are counting that as an “expense”, I think you are missing something.

And $5,000 per year of insurance? Where do you get insurance? I have a house which is more expensive than the one in question, and my annual insurance cost is less than $2,000 per year.

If you add back in a maintenance cost, that would be fair.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 13:17:43

You’re gyrating Rental_Fraud.

Paying $110/sq ft for a 20 year old depreciating asset is double reproduction cost… then some.

And double rental rates.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 13:58:29

The $5K is what Muggy said was just for Flood and Wind. I don’t think that replaces the basic fire/liability policy. Wasn’t there talk of jacking up the Fed Flood “levy” drastically?

The sparky home of a termite colony might need some maintenance for sure. I’ve been told that you cannot actually kill a termite colony, only fight a war of discouragement to make your neighbor’s house seem more interesting.

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-03-10 14:01:31

Wow. I’m glad I just live in earthquake land…EQ insurance is far cheaper.

Comment by rms
2016-03-10 23:44:48

“PITI is 1,770″

Sounds like it’s ITI, i.e., no principal.

“Your math isn’t adding up.”

Yep, my napkin calculation doesn’t pencil-out either.

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-03-10 10:03:06

How much is the “P” part of the equation?

Yes, you need to maintain the property, but it won’t depreciate to $0, so the “P” isn’t entirely an expense.

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Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 10:04:11

Eventually it depreciates to zero.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 10:18:44

I allowed for $75,000 of principle reduction in my back of the envelope calculation.

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-03-10 12:57:18

The building will eventually be worthless (especially if you don’t properly maintain the home), you are correct. However, since the average age of a home in the US is more than 50 years–and people still get utility out of them, the time at which the home will be worthless is likely pretty far out (especially if you properly maintain the building).

The land is very unlikely to be worth zero.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 13:12:41

With a globe full of land where 95% of it goes undeveloped, land isn’t worth much if anything.

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-03-10 15:12:19

I’ll trade you 5 acres of land in the middle of Nevada straight up for 5 acres in Malibu on the beach…deal?

I don’t mean to state the obvious, but land varies widely in value based on where it is, how easily it can turned into something with utility (homes, farmland, etc.), the stability of the government in which it is located, etc.

Painting it all with the same brush is just silly.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 15:15:55

Irrelevant. Dirt is dirt. And you paid too much for it.

Now what are you going to do?

Comment by phony scandals
2016-03-10 15:57:29

Inspection revealed some possible deal breakers

annihilated flex duct

Did you find this out today?

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Comment by X-GSfixr
2016-03-10 11:23:36

“Wife got preggers”

Well there’s your problem. Too much letting little jimmy doing the thinking for the big head…….. LOL

Hint: Get a pair and own it. Your should be saying “I got the wife preggers……..”

Even better, tell wifey that that’s how you want her to describe it.

(I crack myself up sometimes……… :) )

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 12:58:10

He is still blissfully married fixr. You and I are not. I’m sure he’ll be amused though.

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Comment by oxide
2016-03-10 11:13:52

Houses in your nabe are renting in “days?”

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 11:19:18

Hang it up Donk.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-03-10 06:35:49

Menlo Park, CA Housing Prices Crater 22% YoY As Demand For Housing Plummets To 30 Year Low

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 06:51:06

Former Fed President: “We Injected Cocaine And Heroin Into The System To Create A Wealth Effect”

“The Fed is a giant weapon that has no ammunition left.”

Remember….. fixing prices at grossly elevated levels, rigging markets and bottlenecking supply is never effective.

Besides collapsing demand, just what did these people accomplish?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 12:41:25

The Fed created a “wealth effect” for the 1%, at the price of debasing the currency and swindling savers out of billions in interest income.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 17:06:26

The Fed has no “interest” in savers.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-03-10 17:14:42

Nearly everyone’s broke, right? There aren’t many savers suffering.

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Comment by Goon
2016-03-10 06:56:59

Drudge Report links to a Los Angeles Times real journalists narrative reporting that 58% of calories consumed in ‘Merika are from ultra-processed foods:

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-10 07:02:01

Is this the beginning of the end of the House of Rothschild? One can only hope.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 07:06:32

Labor Force Participation Rate Falls To 38 Year Low; Joblessness At Record High

Comment by Goon
2016-03-10 07:08:55

Breitbart provides a narrative on homeless in San Francisco:

California is the most impoverished state in USA.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-10 10:14:13

Apparently the libby lib libs DO care about the poor.

Comment by Goon
2016-03-10 07:11:45

Breitbart provides a narrative reporting millennials are broke @ss loosers:

No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes happening here.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-03-10 09:00:00

The ones who got a degree in Barista Studies certainly are effed. The ones who studied something useful are doing OK.

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-03-10 07:21:52

so should Bernie madoff be allowed to spend his last few months at home dying? lets get serious here……

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-10 10:16:03

If they send them home to die, they don’t have to pay the medical bills, and it’s not like they’re gonna hurt anybody.

Why do you think the taxpayers owe felons end life care?

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-03-10 14:20:18

well thats what we have now… take is if you are sentenced to life without parole….that means you must die in jail, if you have parole hearings then maybe your family could take care of you at home.. and free up cells for the violent ones

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 12:42:59

Spoken like a true pinhead. I’d rather free up a cell and a place in the dispensary for a violent convict, not an ailing, infirm old man.

Comment by 10FeetHigher
Comment by palmetto
2016-03-10 11:25:16

“Screw the law, screw rules.”

That’s what bothers me the most about the issue. Either we do or don’t have a country, either we do or don’t have laws.

If we don’t have laws or a country, fine. Dissolve Washington, the US of A and get rid of the danged IRS, DOD, and the whole friggin’ shooting match. Every man for himself, armed to the teeth, pausing at each bridge before crossing to wonder “do ya feel lucky, do ya, punk?”

Comment by Goon
2016-03-10 07:36:46

I have yet to see World Net Daily provide a narrative reporting what a ground invasion of Iran will cost, or the projected number of American casualties.

So it’s time to revive the Neville Chamberlain narrative, that’s always a good one to whip the mouth breathers and window lickers into a frenzy. And the base then rallied, it votes for the candidate that Sheldon Adelson purchased.

No smaller government or less regulation or lower taxes happening here.

P.S. Senator Tom Cotton (Neocon, AR) is at the secret anti-Trump conclave of globalist pigmen and bloodlust neocons, what is he doing there?

Comment by Goon
2016-03-10 07:43:58

Realtors are liars.

Local NPR affiliate reports “no evidence” of a bubble in Colorado:

There is no “pent-up demand” for $800,000 starter homes.

Nobody wants to live here.

“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 08:15:54

“Realtors are liars.”

You can say that again.

Comment by Goon
2016-03-10 08:41:39

Hello “Jake” (forget it Jake, it’s Chinatown?).

So many 20-30-40-somethings I know in metro Dumver are borrowing themselves into an early grave. $600 a square foot is about the worst I’ve seen yet, and that was the “winner” of a bidding war.

TV in the gym at work is always on HGTV, which makes perfect sense as these loanowners spin their hamster wheels, they can’t afford to hike and ski in the mountains every weekend. They can’t really afford anything.

Every week something new breaks, needs repaired or replaced. Their rotting shacks are literally caving in on top of their heads.

Financial funeral, indeed.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-03-10 09:08:13

It sure is funny how the oldest, most decrepit shacks are the ones that fetch the highest prices because “location”. Many, many years ago we were shown some old brick house in central Denver. Even to my untrained eye the place screamed “money pit”. The furnace looked like something out of an old pre WW2 movie, it looked like a boiler on a steam ship. I could have bought it for 150K back then. I’ll bet there are chumps who would pay 600K+ today for that dump (neighborhood winos and panhandlers included at no extra charge). I’m sure it has a great “walk score”.

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Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 09:17:39

“the oldest, most decrepit shacks are the ones that fetch the highest prices because “location”.”

Are you sure?

US Housing Demand Plummets To 20 Year Low

Comment by Goon
2016-03-10 10:22:15

Central Denver is a toilet. Literally.

In my ultra high walkscore South Denver neighborhood, the winos and junkies stay clustered near Broadway and in the King Soopers parking lot. There are specific other areas to avoid at night but I’m never out past 10pm anyway.

Downtown Denver = you’ll get some poo on your shoe and get shaken down for money every five minutes. Keep telling yourself you can “have it all.” That new artisan bakery is 4.8/5 on Yelp.

Comment by rj chicago
2016-03-10 10:32:07

Speaking of collapsing houses…..

9 displaced by house collapse in Germantown
GERMANTOWN (WPVI) –9 people were displaced when a house collapsed in Philadelphia’s Germantown neighborhood just before 1:00 a.m. Thursday morning.
When firefighters arrived to the scene on the 5100 block of Marion St. they found that the entire home had collapsed.

Two people were inside the home when it collapsed. They managed to make it out safely.

Images from the Action Cam at the scene show bricks covering the sidewalk, and a car that was parked on the street.

Authorities requested crews from PGW, PECO and L&I respond to the scene.

The American Red Cross arrived to help the 2 people who were in the home. 7 People, including 5 children, from the neighboring home were also displaced and were helped by the Red Cross.

The cause of the collapse remains under investigation.

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Comment by Puggs
2016-03-10 10:24:16

They said the exact thing in 2006 in other parts of the country. But that is a micro way to look at a macro problem….

Student loan debt 1.33T (a record)
Auto loan debt 1.02T (a record)
Credit card debt 9B (also a record)

And we’ve added 10T to the National debt since 2008…

No problems here. Just move along…

Comment by Combotechie
2016-03-10 07:50:06

Convince strangers to push housing prices up and - presto! - you will have before you miracle …

Another million homes regain positive equity in 2015

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 08:31:23

Well… think of it this way…..

I can ask $50k for my run down 10 year old Chevy pickup but where is the buyer at that prices?

So it is with all depreciating assets like houses.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-10 07:52:57

It’s Time to Take the Economy Away From the Central Bankers
Mar 8, 2016

There are few things that keep me up at night. And until recently, I would not have included “the shaky role of central bankers” on that list.

Then I read The Only Game in Town, by Allianz chief economic adviser and former Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian. In his book, El-Erian paints a terrifying picture of an economy that is being managed by a group of academics who never asked for the job; who don’t have the tools to keep performing the task; and who have no relief in the wings. “They have been forced to make things up on the spot,” El-Erian writes of the world’s central bankers. “Repeatedly, they have been compelled to resort to untested policy instruments. And, with their expectations for better outcomes often disappointed, many have felt (and still feel) the need to venture ever deeper into unknown and unfamiliar policy terrains.”

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-10 08:28:16

Idiot Trump worshippers who hate the Fed and the wars that are bankers wars don’t see the contradiction.–business.html

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-10 08:59:32

In Glenn Greenwald’s book “No Place to Hide,” he details how the NSA shares industrial espionage secrets with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which then rewards U.S. Corporations with the secrets to counteract the foreign competitors.

How many idiot Trump worshippers think Trump will shut down the NSA. Oh wait, he wants Snowden executed.

Comment by spook
2016-03-10 10:16:21

Adolph Hitler is the white Donald Trump because Donald Trump acts like a “you know what.”
(rhymes with “trigger”)

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 19:21:03

You don’t add much to this forum. Maybe you should go away.

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Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-10 09:01:24
Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 09:18:08

On the contrary. If you don’t accept the Two Party establishment, it is possible to speak out with a write in vote. As it is you have no say in the election, having cut your own tongue out, so to speak.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-10 09:58:18

False. No one represents you in this government, Ever.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 10:09:20

I’m not necessarily disagreeing with you on that. I still have some hope that a revolution is possible without too much violence.

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Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-10 21:13:11

I still have some hope that a revolution is possible without too much violence.

A nonviolent revolution IS possible. It involves mass civil disobedience. Simple. Technology is making it more possible to stop paying taxes.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-10 10:43:47

“speak out with a write in vote. ”

…that nobody ever knows about but you.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 10:53:22

Actually Russ, you’d be amazed that they are indeed recorded. There were 136,000 in the last election. You just don’t get the news watching the TV.

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-03-10 09:24:23

Palm Beach Gardens, FL Housing Market Implodes; Prices Cave 8% YoY As International Sellers Liquidate

Comment by taxpayers
2016-03-10 09:34:25

for MUGGY- Pinellas is gaining wealth fast- per
Gained Wealth From: big net gainer

$275.61 million Cook County, IL
$129.61 million Suffolk County, NY
$106.61 million DuPage County, IL
$104.75 million Nassau County, NY
$86.62 million St. Louis County, MO

Lost Wealth To:

$909.88 million Pasco County, FL
$243.31 million Manatee County, FL
$154.55 million Hernando County, FL
$95.29 million Citrus County, FL
$94.19 million Collier County, FL

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 09:44:53

Which won’t help his crushing losses.

Remember….. Houses are depreciating assets that never put a single dollar in your wallet.

Vienna, VA Housing Prices Crater 10% YoY

Comment by taxpayers
2016-03-10 11:39:46

price per sq ft dead even flat inventory and only 200 data points
try again

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 12:25:58

And falling prices.

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Comment by Muggy
2016-03-10 18:46:58

Whoa, interesting website. Thanks for posting.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 10:07:26

“Why Saudi Arabia Has No Intention To End The Oil Glut”

And why would they after all? They’re getting a 400% premium on top of their production costs and a growing market share.

Comment by Puggs
2016-03-10 10:29:33

Always, always pay off debt during good times.”

It don’t get any better than this.

How much debt this you shed last year…?

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-10 10:30:23

Indeed, why do people panic about “birth rates below replacement”? Is it because of the current ponzi where oldsters depend on subsidies from younger working people? Is that the only reason?

Because it seems like to me that falling birth rates would be a good thing for both the planet and population. Just sayin’.

Comment by Goon
2016-03-10 10:57:41

the current ponzi

Yup. And in case you forgot, infinite growth is not possible in a finite ecosystem.

“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-10 11:03:27

I didn’t forget, how could anyone forget it, seeing streams of migrants to Europe and the US? It brings the issue into sharp focus.

Seems to me like “below replacement” is a good thing.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 13:02:41

falling birth rates…

mean smaller government. The horror.

Comment by Puggs
2016-03-10 10:37:59

…2006 called and contractors aren’t returning calls…

Comment by Puggs
2016-03-10 14:33:12

I’m going to sit down and write a heartfelt note to my contractor as to why he should consider my bathroom remodel over the next guys with promises to feed him and his crews while they’re on the job.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 10:54:13

If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, it’s not affordable nor can you afford it.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-10 12:49:57

unless everyone else does it, then that is your basis of value.

try Somalia, no mortgages

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 13:24:47

There are only 15 and 30 year mortgages?

You’re being a drama queen now.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-10 14:51:50

if you don’t understand value, everything is worthless

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Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 16:13:28

Worthless housing. Worthless worthless housing. Housing is worth less and less with each passing day.

Winter Garden, FL Housing Market Implodes; Prices Crater 12% YoY

Comment by viky
2016-03-11 12:30:36

“The median home value in Winter Garden is $226,500. Winter Garden home values have gone up 7.5% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 2.5% within the next year.”

How are you coming up with a decline of 12%?

Comment by Jake
2016-03-11 22:25:56

And prices fell 12%.


Comment by Puggs
2016-03-10 14:22:19

Then an event like 2008 adjusts all the basis and people realize…”Damn, I freakin’ overpaid!!!”

Eveyone’s overpaying again.

Comment by Donald Trump
2016-03-10 11:01:16

I think we’re going to do really well in Florida. I think we’re going to do really well in Ohio. Then what we’re going to do is we’re going to beat Hillary Clinton, and we’re going to beat her badly.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-10 13:08:17

I notice your twitter feed is awfully quiet today. Is something up? Or just prepping for the debate? Or did Ivanka go into labor?

Comment by I am yuuuge in Burma
2016-03-10 16:29:10

Only losers prep.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2016-03-10 11:05:28

Illegal Mexican National, deported in 2004, kills five white guys/racists (they were white and male, ergo, they must be racists)/probable Trump supporters in Kansas and Missouri.,/gu67mk8

Guy has been arrested at least 3 times in the KC Metro…..domestic violence, DUI, traffic violations. Somehow the ICE didn’t get him deported.

“……..I’d hope that we’d do better next time”.

Of course, the cops admit that they don’t want to alienate the immigrant community? Why? Because “……..we might need them as witnesses.”

And besides, why, as a local PD, would you risk being accused of racism/prejudice/immigrant harassment, when it’s easier to just kick these guys loose?

Some people complain about how hard it is to get statistics on how many cop-involved shootings there are. It’s even more difficult to get legit stats on how many crimes are committed by immigrants and/or illegals. Or any kind of cost-benefit analysis, which includes the “socialized costs”.

Because our betters tell us that immigration (legal or illegal) = Sunshine and Fairies/Candy-crapping Unicorns.

Comment by Goon
2016-03-10 12:23:14

our betters tell us

Always listen to your betters, because they’re better than you.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-10 13:34:50

We know you don’t listen, but we love you just the same.

Comment by phony scandals
2016-03-10 14:24:49

“Guy has been arrested at least 3 times in the KC Metro…..domestic violence, DUI, traffic violations. Somehow the ICE didn’t get him deported.”

Well, he probably wasn’t deported because none of these are “serious” crimes and he wouldn’t have been arrested in the first place if it wasn’t for the rampant racism in our police departments and justice system that Hillary and Barnie Sanders keep telling us about.

This is just one of the undocumented Dreamers who drive our streets without a drivers license or car insurance with 8 or 9 cervezas in them like the ones who have hit and run 2 of my vehicles.

My wife’s back is still screwed up from the last one but it could have been worse, could have been hit by a 23 year old anchor baby.

FHP: DUI driver responsible for killing sisters in wrong-way crash arrested

Man, 23, had license revoked for being habitual traffic offender

By John Dzenitis
Oct 02, 2015

JUPITER, Fla. —The wrong-way driver who killed two sisters on I-95 near Jupiter Saturday night was arrested Thursday and is charged with manslaughter, vehicular homicide, driving without a driver’s license causing death and DUI property damage.

Admerson Vicente, 23, of Jupiter, was driving with a revoked license. In March 2015 he was labeled a habitual traffic offender and had his license revoked.

Vicente was found guilty in a DUI crash in 2010. Investigators said he had a blood alcohol content of .195, which is more than twice the legal limit.

In the following years, Vicente was previously cited for driving with a suspended license and not having insurance.

There was even a request in 2014 to make Vicente get an interlock device installed in his car to prevent him from driving drunk.

The victims in Saturday night’s wreck were Brittany and Alexis Musumeci. They were driving southbound near Jupiter on I-95 in Martin County when Vicente, driving the wrong way, slammed into them head-on.

Alexis, 24, was a staff sergeant in the Air Force who was getting ready to be deployed to Korea, and the two sisters were in South Florida to celebrate with family.

Brittany, 23, was a classical violinist who went to school at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Friends say Brittany was proud of her Cuban roots and taught her Midwestern classmates how to salsa dance.

There’s been an outpouring of support for the sisters’ family online. Ottman started a GoFundMe fundraiser page, and it’s already raised more than double the initial goal of $5,000 to pay for funeral expenses. The family says any money left over will be used for a scholarship in Brittany’s name.

Click here for the GoFundMe page.

Brittany and Alexis were pronounced dead at the scene.

Once Vicente is released from the hospital, he will be booked into the St. Lucie County Jail then transferred to the Martin County Jail, according to a release by FHP.

His bond is set at $3 million.

The crash remains under investigation

Wrong-way driver had multiple DUIs, license had been revoked … - 231k - Cached - Similar pages
Sep 29, 2015 … The wrong-way driver who killed two sisters on I-95 near Jupiter Saturday night was driving with a revoked license. Admerson Vicente, 23,

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 16:45:28

Acts of love….

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2016-03-10 12:26:09

Assuming there is a hell, I hope there is a spot reserved there for all the NIRPers.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 12:49:21

Is the Great Muppet Slaughter of 2016 about to hit global markets? Have Da Boyz exited the pump & dump at the top so they can buy back their shares for pennies on the dollar when the bottom drops out?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 12:51:04

As I predicted, the flight out of our rigged, broken, manipulated Ponzi markets and into the safe haven of precious metals is beginning in earnest.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 13:14:01

I have a hypothesis I’d like to run by the HBB. I think today marks an important tipping point in the markets.

To much fanfare, Draghi did exactly what any Keynesian lunatic and “former” Goldmanite central banker does when their Ponzi market starts to prematurely deflate: he announced more QE and NIRP. Only this time it juiced the markets for about ten minutes - that’s it. Meaning the myth of the omniscient central banker has been shattered - and confidence in our rigged, broken, manipulated markets is about to follow.

On Sunday, German voters who up to now had been remarkably good little sheep for their oligarch-globalist masters and their Quisling establishment politicians and media border collies, are likely going to shock the system by voting for nationalist, populist candidates rather than keep bending over for more “fundamental change.” In the same way, the rise of Trump and Sanders signifies that American voters, 95% of whom had bent over in lobotomized obedience to their oligarchy masters and their annointed political puppets in 2008 and 2012, are belatedly realizing that voting for the crony capitalist status quo means voting against their own economic survival. The oligarchs can no longer count on unfettered neoliberal looting and swindles against the 99%, since the awake and aware 5% are suddenly being joined by former Obama Zombies, McCain Mutants, and Romney Retards who have inexplicably appeared to reversed their lobotomies enough to realize voting for the same-old, same-old only leads to more of the same. That is going to be a SEVERE shock to the Wall Street-Federal Reserve Looting Syndicate, and some of the Da Boyz might calculate that now is an opportune time to cash out of the Wall Street pump & dump before the sheeple wise up and beat them to it. Similarly, on Sunday, when Germans reject the globalism they so mindlessly voted for previously, the ECB is going to realize the window of opportunity for forcing German taxpayers to cover the bad loans of their bankster cohorts to the PIIGS is rapidly closing. At that point, things are going to start to turn into a three-ring sh*t show as “extend and pretend” tricks are increasingly unable to defer the inevitable financial reckoning day.

Got popcorn?

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-10 13:47:38

I agree. Anytime now the faith in the market ends, and the selling starts.

You cant borrow your way to prosperity.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 14:25:46

Right now the intelligent 5% are piling into gold. By the time the stupid 95% start to follow suit, as markets are crashing, gold — the only antidote for the Keynesian fraudsters running our financial system — is going to be a moon shot, methinks.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-10 15:42:16

gold is just a manipulated confidence game too.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 16:44:16

PMs popped nicely today. The shape of things to come.

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Comment by palmetto
2016-03-10 14:57:15

Didn’t that just happen recently? And then things went back up to the moon?

Mind you, I’m not saying something shouldn’t happen. Heck, something should have happened long ago, in 2007-2008, but nothing can really happen in a rigged market and that’s a fact, jack.

No, I think it will be something outside of the “markets” that causes the sucker to implode. An unexpected event of some sort.

Comment by ann gogh
2016-03-10 14:10:59

Love the way you write. If it wasn’t such a boring subject i’d say it was poetic! Bring Back the Politalk!

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 16:21:24

Thank you, Ann Gogh.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-10 18:47:07

Thanks Ann

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by MightyMike
2016-03-10 13:57:45

If Trump Wins, Expect Thousands of Defense Jobs to Move to Europe

The GOP frontrunner’s anti-Muslim comments could prompt U.S. allies to shop elsewhere for arm

Donald Trump has pledged to bring jobs back to the U.S. from overseas, but if elected president the Republican frontrunner might send thousands of American defense jobs to Europe.

U.S. defense industry and national security analysts are expressing concerns that a President Trump might prompt Middle Eastern and other military allies to seek arms elsewhere.

“President Trump may prove offensive to Islamic states and those countries could seek alternative sources of weapons systems,” Byron Callan, an analyst with research firm Capital Alpha Partners wrote in a recent report. “European firms could benefit if countries seek to reduce U.S. defense dependence.”

That means billions of dollars that would go to American firms — Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, and others — could shift to European arms makers, such as BAE Systems, Airbus, Thales, and Finmeccanica.

In recent years, foreign sales have been key for many arms makers, particularly as U.S. weapon sales have slowed. The war against the Islamic State group, or ISIS, has also boosted arms deals in the Middle East. Now defense industry watchers worry that a Trump administration could be bad for business.

“Anti-Muslim rhetoric absolutely does not help when you’re trying to sell to the Middle East,” one lobbyist with close ties to the defense industry said.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 14:22:21

What a joke. European states may sell our Arab “allies” weapons, but they can’t and won’t provide the military muscle to protect countries like Saudi Arabia or the Gulf Arab states from their regional adversaries. That requires American boots on the ground, and that won’t happen unless the fat checks keep rolling in for the MIC.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 14:00:54

Our institutions are becoming more corrupt because our people are becoming more corrupt, as exemplified by the Democrat Party, Hillary Clinton, and millions of mostly Democrat voters who wittingly sanction and enable corrupt politicians and officals. Our penal system is especially corrupt, which should surprise no one.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by palmetto
2016-03-10 14:43:44

LOL, when they mentioned “Future Money Trends”, I first read it as Fuhrer Money Trends. Must be all that Hitler stuff the MSM and the weenie pundits have been flinging around like poo at a chimp fest.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-10 15:45:04

…51% of the people in the United States that are employed are earning under $30,000 a year… Less than half the population is considered middle-class in America… the gap between the rich and the poor is as bad as it was at the worst times of the Gilded Age going back over a hundred years.

So, what happens when the Panic of 2016 happens?

The Panic of ’08 helped wipe out the middle class… this is going to eliminate it to a large degree, because they’re deep in debt…

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 17:28:54

The middle class was already wiped out kiddo.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 19:25:21

They got what they voted for.

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Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 19:37:31

No denying that.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-10 20:56:10

silly middle class….. trickle down is for kids

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by palmetto
2016-03-10 14:45:07

Meanwhile, back in Venezuela…

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 16:30:14

Ah, Venezuela. A foretaste of where ‘Murica is headed once the Comrades of Proven Worth at the DNC have their permanent Democrat supermajority in place. Forward!

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-10 14:42:31

just when you thought it could not get any worse: Neil Bush, Jeb’s brother, joins Ted Cruz’s finance team

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-10 15:49:23

“Neil Bush, Jeb’s brother, joins Ted Cruz’s finance team”

I don’t see how that’s a bad thing. He should make short work of draining the kitty.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 16:18:57

Birds of a feather…Neil Bush and John McCain should both be in jail for their roles in the S&L meltdown and the Keating Five influence-peddling schemes, respectively. Among other things.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-10 15:10:19

I despise the MSM with a deep, deep passion. A look at the google news aggravator on any given day, at any given time, provides a snapshot of how contemptible the MSM truly is.

One trend that has been going on for a while now is the “Things to Know” “What to Watch” words in the titles of pieces: As in “Five Things to Know about the Zika Virus” and “What to Watch in the Republican Debate”. So obnoxious.

And now there’s a new one I see popping up: “How to Think About…” whatever it is they want you to think about.

So they’re gonna tell us what we need to know, what we need to watch and how to think about it all. Brilliant.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 16:15:24

You’re the one who turned it on.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-10 16:37:38

Yep. I should stick to Bing. It’s really not as bad and often carries stories I actually want to read. Google is heavy with WaPo and NYT.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-10 15:37:05

Fukushima’s ground zero: No place for man or robot.

Comment by cactus
2016-03-10 16:47:54

By Kevin Wilson, Blue Water Capital

“I believe the failure of NIRP is going to provide that metaphorical windshield in the next two years or less, as Japan at last faces its endgame. I make this somewhat bold prediction based on the fact that the country is already monetizing the majority of their deficit, has more income from debt than they do from tax receipts, has already conducted the biggest QQE stimulus on the planet by far, and will face far worse trouble as the recession takes root. Something like this was predicted years ago by Mauldin and his co-author Jonathan Tepper (see their book Endgame, 2011, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 318p). Those who think Japanese stocks (EWJ, DXJ, JOF) look cheap right now should bear in mind that the macro picture is about to turn as ugly as it ever gets. In fact, in my opinion, Japan Inc. is the biggest short ever, just as hedge fund manager Kyle Bass said it would be. And if you are looking for something that could finally trigger a US recession, assuming we are not already in one by then, I think an event like this would easily qualify.”

Comment by azdude
2016-03-10 17:18:01

rigging asset prices is only helping people with assets. It wont last but the smart money will know when to bail.

We are close to the rinse cycle.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 18:38:02

But is it really when the amount owed on the asset far exceed the market price of the asset.

The smart money exited long ago.

Comment by sfraz
2016-03-10 17:19:15

Vancouver: Elder abuse and money laundering.
How Vancouver Is Being Sold To The Chinese: The Illegal Dark Side Behind This Real Estate Bubble
“Vancouver seems to be evolving from a residential city into almost like a lockbox for money,” Amanda said. “But I have to live among the empty houses. I’m a resident, not just an investor.”

Comment by cactus
2016-03-10 18:25:19

Angry comments about Vancouver RE didn’t they film x files there because it was cheap back in the day ? All gone

Endless amounts of money pouring into a country from a wealthier and more productive country. Pricing the local population out of home ownership as their purchasing power and wealth is diminished. Sound familiar Canada , enjoy your slow walk to the 3rd world. Oh and next time you go to Mexico on vacation that you paid for by credit card look around. Because when you get home you are the Mexican and the Chinese the rich tourist. Enjoy and don’t worry I’m sure you’re government will help you out

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 19:26:30

A recipe for xenophobia.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by palmetto
2016-03-10 18:54:42

Just read that a short time ago. Excellent piece, IMO and speaks to the anxieties of some of the, ahem, Trump haterz on the the blog.

Well, here we go. Debate time.

Comment by sfraz
2016-03-10 17:29:00

FOLLOW THE MONEY. Vancouver turning into an empty deposit box for money laundering.

Wei had arranged for three million yuan to be deposited in a Chinese bank and transferred to a Richmond currency exchange. Exchange owner Tony Xu called Wei and told the realtor his client’s cash had arrived and it was converted to $521,470 Canadian.
It was 10 times the legal amount individuals are allowed to transfer from China. And it was 50 times over the $10,000 limit that must be reported under Canada’s anti-money-laundering laws.
Instead of having Wei come to his Richmond location to pick up the cash, Tony Xu said it was better for the realtor to meet his brother Frank Xu in Vancouver. Wei’s client Zhongyun Zhang, a Chinese transportation professional, had come to Vancouver in August 2014 and set up a Bank of Montreal account with Wei’s help.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 17:31:57

How’s that hope ‘n change working out for ya, ‘Murica?

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-10 18:42:08

those of us who work hard and went to school are doing great. 4.9% unemployment and record corp profits. Ya gotta work hard in life, no free lunch at the good table.

ps. as a fiscal conservative i approve of food stamps. $160 mo, spent locally, keeps the zombies out of jail at $5k a mo.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 18:55:37

Are you sure?

Labor Force Participation Rate Falls To 38 Year Low; Joblessness At Record High

Comment by Muggy
2016-03-10 18:05:10


Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 18:19:13


Comment by Jake
2016-03-10 18:36:32

Barney Sanders is pro-debt slavery.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 19:51:56

Bernie, Trump, or Goldman Sachs. Pick one.

Comment by Muggy
2016-03-10 20:33:05

Bernie and Trump… I like it.

Get the squid off my face.

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Comment by Muggy
2016-03-10 20:14:26

Me too!


Comment by Muggy
2016-03-10 18:49:14

Crushing. Housing. Losses.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-10 18:59:01

Does John Kasich have osteoporosis?

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-10 19:01:52

Like Grandma used to say about my nieces…”They are young. They have enough time to recover.” She didn’t say that to them directly for some reason. She said it to me. She never said that directly to me in my younger days. Maybe she knew I wouldn’t hear her. She had experience.

Comment by Donald Trump
2016-03-10 19:02:51

We are going to beat Hillary, soundly.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 19:10:34

Hillary Clinton gives props to a barista on her campaign site, gets Berned by the woman in response. Not exactly a classy or gracious way to treat a high-profile customer who gives you a shout-out, in my book. Then again, maybe this barista is bitter because she has a degree in English Literature or Sociology and not a hope in hell of finding a job more suitable to her education or of paying off her student loans in our Obama-Fed-Goldman Sachs “recovery.”

Comment by Donald Trump
2016-03-10 19:31:24

Let me explain something. Because of the fact that the pharmaceutical companies — because of the fact that the pharmaceutical companies are not mandated to bid properly, they have hundreds of billions of dollars in waste.

We don’t bid properly. We don’t have proper bidding procedures. The reason we don’t is because they take care of all of the senators, all of the congressman, and they don’t bid. They don’t go out to bid.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 19:34:50

Almost alone in Europe, Hungary is resisting “fundamental transformation” and defending its national culture, heritage, and sovereignty.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 19:43:00

Remember when markets were honest, based on fundamentals, and closely monitored by vigilant regulators and enforcers determined to safeguard the public interest?

Me neither.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-10 19:59:08

The Bush clan is backing Cruz. Like I needed another reason to detest that Elmer Gantry charlatan.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-10 21:10:53

Kiss of death for Ted.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-10 20:04:40

debate is on….. wow! how do we pay for all this? GOP loves to spend money they dont have.

Comment by 10FeetHigher
2016-03-10 22:11:47

Are you lonely? Bernie and Hillary both agreed last night to deport no one. What’s that gonna cost you in dole payments for illegals. Now triple it because it means twice as many will come now as are already here.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-10 20:18:26

GOP debate:
“no veteran should be unemployed”
Our military needs to be much stronger
we need to go after ISIS w/30k ground troops , blow up the oil fields
beef up soc sec
deport 12k illegals
build a $12 billion wall
defend Israel at all costs
make schools better
make candy sweeter
more money for Egypt

AND we will cut your taxes… yippeeeee!

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-10 20:55:18

a real snoozer for sure. Someone needs to give Kasich the hook.

Comment by 10FeetHigher
2016-03-10 22:09:32

12 billion is a bargain for a wall. You’ll save that much in less than 5 years from DHS’s budget alone, which for this year is 38 billion. Plus Mexico will pay for it from tax on remittances. It’s easy peasy.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-10 20:21:09

lets end the war on coal.

black lung is a right!

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
Comment by Hi-Z
2016-03-11 17:02:01

Good luck with that!

Comment by Donald Trump
2016-03-10 21:25:36

I’ll win New Jersey, I’ll win Ohio, I’ll win Florida.

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