Bits Bucket for March 13, 2016
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Here’s a game for the day boys and girls! Guess on what topic comments are being deleted? It’s trial and error for you.
But Ben, you might say, that means I have to waste hours.
Welcome to my everyday world.
Thank you, Ben, and not a minute too soon. I won’t miss the constant inane trolling one bit, which adds nothing to the HBB or our understanding of the economy & housing markets.
There’s a reason we talk politics a lot these days. Everything economy, finance or housing related is rigged.
^ that
+1
lol@jingle_fraud
Economics, finance and policy (politics) are all interrelated, true enough, but the fratricidal, incessant political flame wars in here get old. Let’s pull the focus and our energy back to the topics at hand: the housing market within the context of broader socioeconomic trends. Truce?
Deal. And please don’t take anything I said on The Topic Which Must Not Be Discussed personally.
You are forgiven, PB.
Good call.
Works for me.
‘Golf clap’
It was becoming unbearable….pun intended!
Fair enough, as long as the rules apply to all posters, including those who post under ten or more different names.
+1
National Review, a mouthpiece of the oligarchs and neocons, says working class communities deserve to die.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/12/national-review-writer-working-class-communities-deserve-to-die/
That NRO moron isn’t even talking about working people. He’s talking about the welfare class, not the working class.
“What they need isn’t analgesics, literal or political. They need real opportunity, which means that they need real change, which means that they need U-Haul. If you want to live, get out of Garbutt [a blue-collar town in New York].”
Don’t leave now!
Those 200,000 jobs in upstate New York Hillary Clinton pledged to create are probably right around the corner.
Keeping the jobs promise to upstate
By Lawrence Mone
June 21, 2011 | 4:00am
For two decades, every politician running for statewide office in New York has promised to improve the Upstate economy — and failed to deliver. In her 2000 Senate campaign, for example, Hillary Clinton pledged to create 200,000 jobs in upstate New York — yet the region actually lost 48,000 jobs from 2000 to 2010.
They’ve moved Nabisco’s production of Oreos to Mexico. Criminals.
But they will pass that cost savings directly onto us the consumers, right?
There is a simple but effective way alumni can respond to the SJW and cultural Marxist totalitarians on campus: cut off their money.
http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/03/09/mizzou-faces-32m-deficit-20-percent-decline-enrolment-last-years-protests/
Since a lot of criminals use the hundred-dollar bill one way to fight crime is to eliminate the hundred-dollar bill.
Got it.
Ooops … wrong spot to stick my post; it should be posted four posts down, the “war on cash” post.
Common sense in a world gone mad.
http://straightlinelogic.com
German voters look set to punish Merkel and her CDU Quislings for being hirelings of the globalists and banksters.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3489936/Angela-Merkel-set-punished-voters-open-door-refugee-policy-Germany-s-Super-Sunday-state-elections.html
Are the central planners and central bankers on the verge of losing control of our rigged, broken, manipulated markets?
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=43809
“Citizens should not be put under general suspicion.” The war on cash meets resistance.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/03/06/bundesbank-takes-sides-in-war-on-cash-freedom/
I think this is a rather big deal.
A functioning economy must also have liquidity at the retail level. We won’t have the liquidity we need should everyone think most transactions are tracked.
A side effect of eliminating $100 bills is a strengthening and deepening of the barter economy. Can’t imagine the Feds wanting to encourage bartering.
Get rid of cash = strengthening bartering economy = decreasing tax “revenues”.
Get rid of cash = total Orwellian ability to constantly surveill and monitor the citizenry and their sources of income and expenditures, and then tax/loot them at will. With the IRS already targeting conservatives and conservative groups, can you imagine the abuses of authority once our Permanent Democrat Supermajority can give free rein to their larcenous impulses and punish the political opposition?
Can’t imagine the Feds wanting to encourage bartering.
Bartering is far less efficient than a cash-based economy. Thus, even if bartering increases, it will increase less than the cash-based transactions decrease.
So yeah, I’m guessing that they would consider it a good trade-off.
If they kill cash, there are plenty of other untraceable medium of exchange.
Could you list a couple? Flakes of gold? Chickens? Goats? Silver pennies? Water soluble Tide Pods?
Are the chickens grass fed?
Ammunition. Long shelf life. Best currency out there in the barter economy (keeping some in your loaded gun that you of course have at hand). You can use it like coinage. For higher amounts, you trade it by weight.
Why do you think they are also trying to make ammo hard to get? Yes, also as a means of back-door gun control, of course.
Bitcoin and friends, rolexes and other jewelry, people, a variety of precious metals, or pretty much anything else portable people decide to ascribe value to.
You don’t care if the government knows about your grocery purchases, so low denominations aren’t really the issue. Anything that’s going to get you into trouble is going to be valued over $1k.
“people”
A return to the slave trade?
return?
Embrace your serfdom, ‘Muricans.
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/03/13/the-status-quo-plan-convince-the-american-public-to-accept-serfdom/
Free internet provided by the government coming soon to all areas. They own your internet history then with no griping.
All your wifi are belong to us.
“In Germany after WWI, austerity imposed by outsiders created the conditions for fascism to grow. We knew this. We were even taught this in school. And we certainly know just how good that is for women and minorities.
But in America (and Britain), that austerity is being imposed by our own leaders, and most effectively by leaders of the Democratic Party (and Labour Party) — the supposed “left” party, the party that was understood to support working people.”
Domestic Imperialism.
Could have said it better myself.
“In Germany after WWI, austerity imposed by outsiders created the conditions for fascism to grow. We knew this. We were even taught this in school.
You should see what they DIDN’T teach you in school about the conditions that created Hitler and the Nazis. Like how a certain Prescott Bush and his oligarch cronies aided and abetted the National Socialists’ (the ultimate expression of corporate statism) rise to power. Google it sometime.
Sunday funnies from TBP. Enjoy!
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/03/13/sunday-funnies-104/
North America’s Most Expensive Housing Markets:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-12/north-americas-most-expensive-housing-markets
Pretty much the usual suspects.
How about the least expensive housing markets that also have decent job markets?
If anyone has that in list form - and not in the highly irritating one-market-per-screen format that most online sources publish - I would appreciate knowing about it.
Thanks in advance.
Sounds like a useful list if anyone has it! If posted, I will send on to a friend who is on the job market.
Mac, the one anecdotal I can give you on that subject is the Greenville area of South Carolina. Oh, and I think Pittsburgh. But that was from a while back, and I think Greenville has probably increased in price.
Mac, here’s one list, this guy Skousen does have a survivalist point of view, but there’s some good info here.
Strategic Relocation:
http://www.joelskousen.com/strategic.html
Here are my current ratings for the TOP 10 MODERATE GROWTH, MEDIUM SIZED METRO AREAS that are relatively safe from strategic threats, or where you have a good chance of mitigating those threats. These are not the best areas, but the areas where most people who need to stay in the job markets will find medium term security:
1. Boise, ID
2. Provo-Orem, UT
3. Beaverton, OR
4. Santa Rosa, CA
5. Greenville, SC
6. Winston-Salem/High Point, NC
7. Austin-San Marcos, TX
8. Grand Rapids, MI
9. Reno, NV
10. Madison, WI
For those of you on a tight budget, here are the TOP 10 MOST ECONOMICAL STATES to live. These ratings take into consideration overall taxes, housing, and cost of living. These ratings also exclude most large metro areas, where costs are much higher than the state average.
1. Arkansas
2. Alabama
3. Louisiana
4. Texas (except Dallas Metroplex)
5. West Virginia
6. Oklahoma
7. South Carolina
8. Mississippi
9. Wisconsin
10. Tennessee
Good lists. I’m a bit surprised MO is not on the bottom one, though…At one point, Lil’ Sis owned three houses there free and clear, purchased between her community college instructor and autoworker hubby’s incomes.
This list is probably why MO is not on there, I think he eliminates possible nuke target areas:
THE TOP 10 MOST DANGEROUS NUCLEAR TARGETS IN OR NEAR A METRO AREA (there are several other primary targets not listed that are not near a major metro)
1. Washington DC /and related bases (major command and control for the President)
2. Colorado Springs, CO (Cheyenne Mtn Control Center, 2 space command/comm bases)
3. Omaha, NE (secondary command and control bases)
4. Seattle, WA (Trident Missile Sub base and numerous Naval Bases)
5. Jacksonville FL/Kings Bay GA (Trident Missile Sub base, Major East Coast Naval Center)
6. San Diego, CA (largest west coast naval complex)
7. Norfolk, VA (major east coast naval complex)
8. Kansas City, MO (Nuclear Manufacturing facility)
9. Cheyenne, WY (Warren AFB, Minute Man and Peacekeeper MX missiles)
10. Great Falls, MT (Malmstrom AFB –Minute Man missiles)
Hah, I moved from #7 to #1.
Thanks for the info, Palmy, yet I’m looking for lists with more metrics.
There are numerous mid-size markets that are inexpensive (Columbus, Indy, Roanoke, Chattanooga, Pittsburgh, Provo, Greensboro, Louisville, Little Rock), but few that are inexpensive AND employment jauggernauts.
And no, I’m not interested in college towns. Too artificial.
Palmy, when Skousen talks about “strategic threats” is he talking about external threats, i.e. incoming ICBMs, or is he talking about an economic collapse scenario and the “golden horde” that will be pouring out of the urban areas?
I don’t know, Ray, since I haven’t read much of his stuff, I was just sort of interested in the lists. I think he has a third edition of his book out, and bear in mind he’s talkin’ his book here, but it seems like good analysis. My guess is that while he’s concentrated on incoming threats, he’s also got the urban threat somewhat covered, judging from some of the locations listed.
Unlike much of the prepper stuff, seems like he takes into account people who have to earn a living, or want to survive but don’t have a whole lot of $$.
IIRC Kansas City was on a list of best places to live “when the sh*t hits the fan” based on access to food, water, transportation, etc. That was the same list that ranked Rio De Janeiro #1 only because they’ve been functioning as if the sh*t hit the fan for several decades.
And those locations you ‘ll find the most frequent and egregious examples of widescale housing fraud.
People with mortgages do not get to drink a beer on the summit of Mt Crested Butte:
http://imgur.com/qI0Rrfe
Adult lift tickets at CB are up to $111 now. Not that I’d ever pay retail for that.
People with mortgages also do not get to hike in the Collegiate Peaks Wilderness:
http://imgur.com/P0Z7MF0
Region VIII
Goon,
Do check out Banff one day if you haven’t already done so. And, say, 200 miles west/southwest of Banff. A special place indeed.
Never been to western Canada, it’s on the bucket list.
I paid $400 for my Loveland season pass. If you add up the retail price of all the bonus days you get 3 each at Crested Butte, Monarch, Powderhorn, Purgatory it’s close to $1000.
Skiing isn’t that expensive of a hobby if you’re willing to rough it. I only spent one night in a hotel this weekend and camped outside two nights.
Goon, my brother, I quite enjoy my vicarious outings through your pics. Nothing quite as sublime as our Colorado mountains.
It’s not terrible. I sleep outside 40+ weekends of the year.
In addition to the scenery and exercise, the past 6 years of travelling around our Region is helping me decide where I’ll move when I leave Dumver. The quality of life in the Front Range is steadily deteriorating.
The quality of life in the Front Range is steadily deteriorating.
Agreed. A huge influx of Californians, Texans, dopers, and illegals in the past few years is changing the character of the place.
Californians and people from the East Coast are ruining Colorado.
I just put a “No Vacancy” sticker on my truck to remind them that they’re not welcome here, LOLZ.
Most Californians are from somewhere else.
The people that moved in ten years ago are putting up the “no vacancy” sign. I bet that gives the local native americans a laugh.
The So Californians are getting squeezed out by the Persians and Chinese. No sense retiring in crowded so cal.
There is no ‘retiring’ kiddo. Work till you drop.
Another Japanese nuke plant, another fault line.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-13/next-fukushima-active-fault-line-discovered-directly-below-japanese-nuclear-power-pl
Phony’s School of Business
How to throw away millions of dollars in Starkville, Mississippi on a Saturday night: 101
Report: Ex-Miss. State QB Dak Prescott arrested on DUI charge
By Chase Goodbread
College Football 24/7 writer
Published: March 12, 2016 at 11:58 p.m.
Updated: March 13, 2016 at 12:35 a.m.
Former Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott was arrested on suspicion of driving under the influence early Saturday morning, according to the Jackson Clarion-Ledger.
Prescott, one of the top quarterback prospects available in the 2016 NFL Draft, was driving a white 2016 Cadillac Escalade when he was pulled over between 1-1:30 a.m. in Starkville, Mississippi, and the arrest was confirmed by Starkville Police Chief Frank Nichols, according to the report.
Prescott did not respond to a message seeking comment.
Dumb question of the day: What does it mean if the gambling odds are +250? I’m not much of a gambler, so I honestly don’t understand. Would that mean that a bet of $100 pays $250, plus return of your $100, if you win and $0, including no return of the $100, if you lose? And how would odds of -200 work?
Here is a very cogent explanation:
Calculating profits with American odds
American odds are unsurprisingly the default style in America. They start either with a positive or a negative sign, e.g. -110, or +120. A negative number indicates what you must bet to make $100 profit (or equivalent in your chosen currency) and a positive number indicates how much you might profit if you bet $100.
If you bet $110 on a team with American odds of -110 and they win, you will make $100 profit (plus your original $110 stake). If you bet $100 on a team with odds of +120, and they win, this will return $120 profit (plus the original $100 stake).
…
So if I understand it, odds of -200 mean that a bet of $100 would pay a profit of $200; i.e. you get back $200 plus return of your $100 stake.
bets are in $110. increments or a fractional equivalent of it…Say, $55 instead of $110…The $10. is for the sports book…The $100. is your actual bet…
When you see a -200 that would mean that you would have to bet $200. (plus $20. for the sports book) to be able to win $100…
Conversely, when you see +250 it means that you must bet $100. (plus $10. for the sports book) to win $250…
In either case, if you win, you get your initial bet back plus your winnings…
Not sure if you follow the warriors basketball but the lost to the LA lakers the other day…The warriors are so good and the lakers are so bad that the sports book had the Warriors -1900…Yep, a $100. bet on the Lakers would have won you $1900…
Wikipedia …
“Moneyline odds
“Moneyline odds are favoured by United States bookmakers and as such are sometimes called American Odds. There are two possibilities: the figure quote can be either positive or negative. Moneyline refers to odds on the straight-up outcome of a game with no consideration to a point spread.
“Positive figures
If the figure quoted is positive, the odds are quoting how much money will be won on a $100 wager (done if the odds are better than even). Fractional odds of 4/1 would be quoted as +400 while fractional odds of 1/4 cannot be quoted as a positive figure.
“Negative figures
“If the figure quoted is negative, the moneyline odds are quoting how much money must be wagered to win $100 (this is done if the odds are worse than even). Fractional odds of 1/4 would be quoted as -400 while fractional odds of 4/1 cannot be quoted as a negative figure.
“Even odds
“Even odds are quoted as +100 or -100. Some but not all bookmakers display the negative symbol.”
Does anyone want to take a free course to learn the “real story” of the financial crisis?
The Global Financial Crisis
Yale University
Instructors
Andrew Metrick
Michael H. Jordan Professor of Finance and Management
Yale School of Management
Timothy Geithner
Lecturer in Management, Yale SOM, Former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury
Yale School of Management
Was listening to a home improvement call in radio show hosted by Gary Sullivan and it was like watching a horror movie listening to people call in with all the things they needed to repair or replace.
And strangely this show is followed by the Dave Ramsey financial advice show. After spending thousands and thousands of dollars every year on a depreciating house, none of these people will ever be able to retire above a poverty level.
I rent, therefore I am retiring from working full time within 5 years.
What do you save monthly by renting? Let’s say it’s $1,000/month at most. 5-years (60 months) of savings = $60,000 for your retirement?
What are you smoking out there in Denver? Oh, now I remember! LOL.
Realtor, I have so much money left after “throwing money away on rent” every month that I don’t know where to throw it.
Evidently you are investing some of it in herbal remedies!
Realtor, the majority of my incalculable wealth is in a S&P 500 index fund with a 0.1% expense ratio.
Realtor, the majority of my incalculable wealth is in a S&P 500 index fund with a 0.1% expense ratio.
Goon, I’m proud of you.
My fiduciary has a link to compare how my retirement savings is against people in a given zip and age group. So I punched in my Orange County zip code and my age group (late 50s). Just that one 401k alone is 200% higher than my contemporaries in my zip code. I did not count my Roth IRAs or Roth 401k, which are almost as much as my traditional 401k.
People here in the OC are proud to have more of their nest egg tied up in RE and not so much in retirement accounts. It’s a California cultural thing.
Having spent a lot of years in Arizona, I know that in many zips the houses are modest, but the incomes are about the same in my former AZ zip code as the incomes in my OC zip code. This tells me that the people in my former AZ zip code have more money saved. I need to check my traditional 401k web site on my old zip code.
Essentially the Arizona folks in my former nabe seemed more relaxed than my OC nabes. They have everything tied up in RE here.
I pay $1425 per month rent and the average stucco box price in my zip is $600k. A real estate guy told me at my neighborhood pub that I’d be looking at $4200 per month to pay for one of those houses. In essence, every year I rent, it’s like getting another 23 months worth of this nabe.
I enjoy the same things my loan owner nabes enjoy such as a safe part of Orange County, for 1/3 the cost.
I got so much money left over after rent that I invest $30500 in Roth 401k and IRA every year. And I converted half my tax deferred plans to Roths in 2010 when stocks were barfgain prices.
In 2 and a half years I can retire. But it will be likely working my own business from home in Phoenix where I will retire.
I demonstrated to myself that I have the gumption to work remotely on cryptography. Prolly will get paid in crypto currency.
I rent, therefore I am retiring from working full time within 5 years.
Goon, I respect your plan for early retirement and life change… I know you’ve talked about going the MMM route. Would you be willing to share more details of what your plans are, and how much you think you need to save in the next 5yrs in order to get there?
He’s already discussed it. His shelter costs are a small fraction of a mortgage slave. Just that alone has resulted in a $500k savings for me and other renters just in the last 10 years.
The reason for the unwillingness to to perform simple math is obvious.
The Social Register wing of my family are dying and leaving me money.
My father was divorced twice and I have learned alot from that experience.
dying and leaving me money
A trust-fund rebel? You never scripted that narrative for us.
Did any of our HBB’ers see this on Friday?
Our “own” Allena Hansen was on Inside Edition Friday night.
http://tinyurl.com/jmpkwad
Real Bear Attack Survivor Says She Laughed During Leo’s ‘Revenant’ Scene: ‘It Was Goofy’
If you have not read Allena’s book, “Chomp, Chomp, Chomp” download it off Amazon and read it. I found it to be a fascinating personalized glimpse into a feisty woman’s extraordinary life.
Very cool to see… but for some reason it made me think of OlyGal, and now I’m sad.
SJWs are like slinkys. They serve no useful purpose in life, but it makes me smile when I push one down the stairs.
no useful purpose
Not true. The ones without trust funds pour my coffee.
“…when I push one down the stairs.”
Pushing the limits so soon?
There’s no need for violence.
SJW’s will wake up at age 35 living in an apartment in Brooklyn with 6 roommates and slowly accept the fact that their band is never gonna make it big.
And wake up early, early in the morning, to pour coffee for people like me.
to pour coffee for people like me.
Who inherited his money from daddy.
Your jealousy is showing again Lola.
not just Brooklyn anymore….
CA is full of cases like that.
So long as you stick with the assigned viewpoint, trolling is fine.
German voters are turning on Merkel and her Quisling CDU after reaping the fruits of “fundamental transformation.”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/germany-elections-angela-merkel-afd-refugee-right-wing-a6929016.html
Kleptocrats do the strangest things.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3490220/The-Ghost-House-Sussex-40m-mansion-built-property-baron-friend-Robert-Mugabe-31-years-work-started.html
Religion of peace strikes again.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/ivory-coast-hotel-shooting-eye-7549507
Germans have buyers’ remorse after ten years of voting for oligarch-globalist lackey Angela Merkel. Merkel’s ability to continue putting German taxpayers on the hook for trillions in bad loans made by her bankster cohorts is now in question following the rise of nationalists (”far right” to the oligopoly-owned media) who refuse to screw over their countrymen to enrich the international financiers. Is the endless can-kicking running out of road?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-13/merkel-heading-humiliation-state-elections-swing-anti-immigrationists
An interesting website …
It’s called “Big Think” and it has links to thousands of interesting articles and videos.
Go here: bigthink.com
(FWIW)
Make that:
http://bigthink.com
How did it go Muggy?
Floriduh. I took this one at a gas station in Fort Myers in December:
http://imgur.com/y5SjwbY
So now we have the anti establishment candidates and their supporters from the right and left at each others throats. Seems to me that the establishment has to be pretty happy about this. I wouldn’t be surprised if they orchestrated it. Add a little violence or property damage and maybe they can derail both, the same way they derailed and distracted OWS and the Tea Party movements.
This is exactly what I’m thinking, including the bit about orchestration. Really discouraging, as the best thing about the last few months has been the unity of anti-globalist sentiment on all sides, the finding of real common ground in unexpected corners. But we have to see how it plays out.
I’ve only just started to look at what’s happening to Merkel in Germany; it would be nice to see a decisive result there as a shot across the bow of globalists worldwide. Going back to read more now.
Globalism is the natural result of capitalism supported by global communication and transportation networks. Fighting it is like fighting the surf.
I always liked that one posting handle that used to pop up here from time to time: Guillotine Renovator
I don’t know if that same person posts now under another name, but that was very creative.
Novato, CA Housing Market Plummets; Prices Crater 12% YoY On Collapsing Housing Demand
http://www.movoto.com/novato-ca/market-trends/
It’s a shame all the snowflakes and SJWs can’t spend some quality time down in Venezuela gaining some first-hand knowledge about what happens when the collectivists run out of other people’s money and producers quit producing since the fruits of their labor will be stolen from them. Forward!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-13/let-them-come-me-maduro-defiant-thousands-protest-venezuela
Ben - how do you like Boise?
Never been there.
I have been there for a few business meetings over the years, and even met up with a former poster who lives there, DennisN (not sure if he is still posting under a different name).
My impressions:
1) If you are into hunting, fishing, skiing or various other forms of outdoor recreation, could be a good gateway.
2) There seems to be some base of an economy, especially if you are into agribusiness.
3) There is night life around the capital area; albeit not NYC!
4) I haven’t visited in winter, but would guess that it gets cold there.
5) There was a point when my wife’s ex-BIL had a job offer there which he turned down. I never got the full story, but think it was related to his disliking Boise.
RE: 5)
My wife clarified that it was her sister, not x-BIL, who nixed the Boise move. She thought it was too small…something to think about if small town living is not your cup of tea.
I have heard great stuff about Boise, smaller means less traffic and crime usually. At 215k people, I consider it plenty big, what else do you need besides a Costco?
I do fish, ski, hike, mtn bike….
Your mortgage there is what a room rents for in my town (49k pop) now.
Cypress Hill — Real Estate (1991):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vx9N–pE27Q
I saw them live in Washington D.C. in 1993, House of Pain and Whodini opened the show.
Goldman Sachs is trying to dissuade the muppets from buying gold. That means one thing: buy with both hands.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-13/gold-believers-scoff-at-goldman-warning-as-wagers-on-rally-rise
The German sheeple are waking up. Will ‘Muricans follow suit?
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/03/13/merkel-drubbed-at-the-ballot-box-as-surging-nationalists-declare-people-voted-against-migrant-her-policy/
The Who — Slip Kid (1973):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4xjr9v5ehk
“No easy way to be free”
Man I haven’t heard that song in 30 years.
When I clicked that link and saw that album cover it was like a time machine and I was in a dorm room with a Stop sign table that had a red bong on it and this song was playing.
The Who - Squeeze Box - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pW3PSKJ-Bik - 224k -
Are German voters done bending over for the globalists and oligarchs?
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/german-anti-immigration-party-celebrates-dizzying-rise-202547094.html