March 14, 2016

Bits Bucket for March 14, 2016

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Comment by Goon
2016-03-14 00:39:37

There is no such thing as a “paid off house.”

Keep telling yourself that, it’s a one way ticket to poverty and ruin.

Comment by Combotechie
2016-03-14 05:10:05

My house is not only paid for it also pays me in the form of tax-free imputed rent in the amount of $2,200 per month (according to Zillow).

That is $2,200 that I do not need to earn free and clear of taxes in order to pay rent to somebody else.

In a sense I am a landlord and I am also a tenant and as a tenant I treat the house that I rent from myself in the same way I would as if I owned it, which is what I do, I own it - free and clear.

But there are taxes and upkeep but because of Prop 13 the taxes are low and because I am my own tenant and behave as if I own the place the upkeep is also low.

Comment by Combotechie
2016-03-14 05:27:14

This past weekend I did my taxes and I learned that my Federal tax bracket it 25% and my state’s tax bracket is 10%. I already knew that my payroll tax was about 10% (payroll tax = Social Security, Medicare, SDI, etc) so the question I like to ask myself is:

Just how much extra income do I need to earn in order to pay somebody else a monthly rent of $2,200 after I pay all of the taxes that are owed to the Federal government, to the state, and after all the payroll taxes are subtracted?

The answer is forty-five percent more, which is $3,190 a month.

Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 05:38:55

Social Security and Medicare is about 17% if self employed or when you include the employer’s contribution.

Now include property taxes, sales taxes, transfer fees, estate taxes, car registration fees, etc.

“At what point between 0% and 100% taxation do you become a slave?”
– 2banana

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Comment by Combotechie
2016-03-14 06:05:51

“At what point between 0% and 100% taxation do you become a slave?”

The closer you are to 0% the freer you are. The closer you get to 100% the more freedom you end up giving up. So to enjoy the most freedom you need to somehow learn to keep your expenses down.

Keeping expenses down means:

1. You do not have to earn much money and thus taxes associated with earning money are minimized, and

2. You do not have to pay as much taxes that are associated with buying things.

Doing 1 and 2 automatically pushes you toward the zero end of the spectrum.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 06:48:23

Combo’s insight explains why sucking the Middle Class dry with burdensome, aggressively progressive taxation is highly deflationary. No amount of money printing by the Fed can fix the situation.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-14 08:33:48

I was going to say that houses do not have vehicle registration fees, but in fact my boat does.

There are many degrees of freedom. A measure that is meaningful to me is the ability to make choices. Living well within one’s means provides that. Paying a very low percentage of your income/wealth for shelter is key. Debt is slavery.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-14 10:54:00

If you dont like taxes, dont vote for wars that cost trillions.

or walls or deporting 12 mill that will cost billions and billions

even WW2 has not been paid for yet.

pay your bills….

NV has no income tax. Live as close to Tahoe as possible is one of my plans.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 13:58:49

Those wars on going on the national credit card.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 17:53:50

“If you dont like taxes, dont vote for wars that cost trillions.”

How do you ‘not vote’ for wars?

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 06:49:11

Problem is, you gotta sell the house when you retire to move to a low tax state such as Nevada. Will you sell to a Chinese?

I already am prepared for retirement in Arizona. Looking forward to biking the Scottsdale green belt paved trail daily. Will work about five hours a day on cryptography software tho.

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Comment by 10FeetHigher
2016-03-14 07:15:59

Scottsdale Gun Club is a fine place. Lots of fanciness for a shooting range. Lotsa ladies looking to learn how to shoot in those classes they set up.

Comment by oxide
2016-03-14 08:53:53

So you’re saying those ladies are taking up shooting in the hopes of meeting a man? :grin:

One woman advised me that if I wanted to meet a man, take up golf, because that’s where the men with the money are. Heh, not so fast. The moneyed men aren’t legal, and the legal men have already been de-moneyed. [assuming that the ladies are looking for money. Most aren't.]

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-14 11:30:26

I wish I could get my girl shooting straight. She’s terrified of the 1911… squinches her eyes shut, jerks the trigger, and is emotional jellly after 4 clips.

I guess I should take heart in the fact that if she ever decides to shoot me, I won’t be in any danger.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-14 11:39:05

How do you bike 6 mos of the year with that heat? Will you flee in the summer and head north? 110 is too hot to be outside.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 14:00:50

I already am prepared for retirement in Arizona. Looking forward to biking the Scottsdale green belt paved trail daily.

Good luck with that 120F temperature when the grid goes down.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 17:54:58

“I guess I should take heart in the fact that if she ever decides to shoot me, I won’t be in any danger.”

What if she decided to outsource to a trained shooter?

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 20:13:30

I biked before in Scottsdale every other morning, even when it was in the 90s for the low or 30s for the low when I lived. There before. As for power, I never had over two hours without power when I was physically located in Phoenix, a total of three years and a few months out of 13 years. I did experience an AC unit broken down just two months before I moved out. The apartment complex replaced it in the early evening. Brought in a crane. They put me in a hotel.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 07:35:25

Problem is rents are far under $2200.

What are your yearly losses to depreciation?

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Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-14 11:31:26

In flyoverland maybe.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 12:19:23

Regardless of location.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-14 16:05:22

The only location you are familiar with has a grand view of the backside of your naval.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 16:48:12

any location.

Comment by oxide
2016-03-14 08:46:47

I don’t know Prop 13. Does this mean you’re paying taxes based on the assessment at the time you purchased?

I guess the equation changes for retired folks. They can sell the house and buy something outright for 1/3 price in a cheap state. Now the new paid off house is only paying them ~$600-700 month, but at the same time, the lump sum profit from selling the old house is earning investment money. Might be some fun calculations to find the optimum price for the toe-tag house.

Comment by dwkunkel
2016-03-14 09:15:21

Pro 13 means your property taxes are based on what you paid for your house when you bought it. We bought out house in 1979 for $80K so our property taxes are about $2,200 per year. We added a 500 sq/ft addition 20 years ago which modestly increased our tax base.

California has a one time option for geezers like me to sell my current house, buy another in the same county, and keep my low prop 13 tax base.

A paid off house with low property taxes in a stable neighborhood is a good way to retire.

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Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 09:21:05

Holding onto a big depreciating asset with limited income is no way to “retire”. The carry costs far exceed rental rates.

The reality is offloading the house for whatever it will fetch and hand the proceeds over to assist living facilities until youre in your grave.

Demographic reality my friend. Demographic reality.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 20:19:48

This is why Californians are huge on real estate. Prop 13.

If you can max out your IRA and 401k investmnets in Roths and you have a house in a place with jobs, education, and climate, you might as well stay in California.

For me, it is all about guns, gold, libertarians and sunsets, which are welcome in Arizona.

Ever sit in the lodge on the North Rim of the Grand Canyon behind the glass? It’s Arizona. It gives you a view of the geologic core billions of years old. Makes you a Darwinist.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 09:16:05

There is no “lump sum profit” from having a depreciating asset bleed you dry for 30 long years.

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Comment by redmondjp
2016-03-14 11:24:55

So Housing Analyst AKA “Jake,” what will you be calling yourself next week?

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 12:26:37

Data my friend. Argue with the data.

Seattle, WA Housing Prices Crater 5% YoY

Comment by Muggy
2016-03-14 15:56:06

Lol, are you trolling yourself? 9/10 you post a link showing increases.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 21:11:11

Study the data my friend.

Comment by Bluto
2016-03-14 14:31:58

Prop 13 passed waaay back in 1978, I remember because I’d been overseas in the Navy and blissfully unaware and many people were talking about it when I returned home that year. As was said your property taxes (typically about 1.1% in CA) are based on the purchase price and can only be increased by a very small percentage each year. Great if you are an owner (I was for 10 years and benefited) but it gives people a powerful incentive to stay put so there is less turnover. For example a Calif. listing for say $500K might show an assessment of $60K and taxes of $700/year for example…the owner of the recently purchased similar house next door might be paying $5500/year in property taxes. Anyway, all the more reason not to buy into the current echo bubble…

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Comment by Bluto
2016-03-14 19:11:46

Here is a good example of the local bubble and a house someone has evidently owned for a LONG time, probably pre Prop 13. A dump near me that went up for sale today for $450K, assessment is $33K, property taxes $430/year. If someone is foolish enough to pay this price the new owner will paying over $5000/year in taxes…

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 20:28:04

I voted for prop 13 in 1978. Very much a capitalist, Milton Friedman fan, Howar Jarvis fan, and 19 years old. If I was a voter and had to do it all over again, I would vote for it (yes) again.

Comment by cactus
2016-03-14 09:02:19

My house is not only paid for it also pays me in the form of tax-free imputed rent in the amount of $2,200 per month”

I wonder what Bernie the socialist thinks of that ?

Comment by Combotechie
2016-03-14 09:42:24

Here’s an article on imputed rent that will supply a lot of arguing material for those who care to delve into the issue:

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Comment by Combotechie
2016-03-14 09:54:08

Something interesting (from the article):

“The Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis calculates imputed rent on an annual basis and includes it in personal income, which is a major component of the gross domestic product.”

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2016-03-14 10:16:57

” calculates imputed rent on an annual basis and includes it in personal income”

Wow. Imagine how much income I have due to not having a car payment every month. And not eating out as much, I save a ton more money each month. Think of the imputed possibilities!

Comment by Combotechie
2016-03-14 10:20:47

This is another example of how price translates to (is converted into) value.

The prices of actual rents affects the values of imputed rents and the values of these imputed rents go into the computing of GDP.

So to increase GDP in this case (and in many cases) all one has to do is increases prices.

Comment by oxide
2016-03-14 11:30:37

So all those widows aging in place in now-valuable houses are “producing” more than minimum wage workers. Whoda thunk!

Comment by Combotechie
2016-03-14 11:40:53

The actions of a few can affect the wealth of the many if the prices that are set by a few go into determining the wealth of the many, and this indeed is the situation that now exists.

Thus it follows that if the few who determine the wealth of the many are swept up in a mania then the wealth of the many will reflect the actions of this few and so will the GDP figures.

Comment by David Lereah
2016-03-14 11:55:03

Wealth and income; The imputed expansion of GDP is due to the expansion of income due to the expansion of imputed rent.

Wealth is another matter; wealth is a balance sheet item whose value, as it is with imputed rent, is something that is determined by the behavior of a relative few number of strangers who very possibly have lost their minds.

Comment by cactus
2016-03-14 12:40:33

I read something like this years ago. Imputed rent as income but a more shrill article that really wanted a tax change.

Sort of a wealth tax

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 18:04:48

“The Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis calculates imputed rent on an annual basis and includes it in personal income, which is a major component of the gross domestic product.”

Now that is clever! For instance, suppose that some deadbeat loser is renting a home for $2000 a month. If Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or the FHA came along and loaned Mr. Loser enough to purchase a home that would rent for $2000 a month, then his personal income would increase by $2000 a month, with no change in cash flow. If, say, 50,000,000 individuals did the same thing, so monthly income for each of these guys went up by $2000, then aggregate monthly income would increase by 50,000,000 X $2,000 = $100 bn. The annual increase in aggregate monthly income (aka GDP) would go up by $100 bn X 12 = $1.2 trillion.

Please tell me there is something wrong with the above arithmetic, or I may get sick to my stomach!

Comment by inchbyinch
2016-03-14 11:33:21

We love living in a free and clear home as well. The accruals (prop taxes & HO ins ) are less then renting a room ($550/mo), and if you have an oh sh*t expense, no house payment becomes a big plus.

We all get old with any luck, and unless you get very rich, you need a debt free existence.

Comment by David Lereah
2016-03-14 11:46:07

If you paid your mortgage off, it means you probably did not manage your funds efficiently over the years. It’s as if you had 500,000 dollar bills stuffed in your mattress.

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Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 05:25:58

If there are public unions pensions to be paid and long term democrat rule in your town - you will never own your house.


Chicago to get hit with large property tax hike
Monday, September 21, 2015 - abc7

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s 2016 budget is expected to include a hike in property taxes to help eliminate billions of dollars of debt. Residents also may face more taxes and fees on garbage collection, sugary drinks and other services.

“We need to include protections for the working families of the city of Chicago,” Chicago Alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa, 39th Ward, said.

“You must tax the wealthy. You must properly fund public education,” Jesse Sharkey, Chicago Teachers Union, said. Sharkey also repeated the CTU’s threat to strike this winter if massive layoffs happen because of a separate $500 million deficit facing Chicago Public Schools.

Some homeowners, landlords and business owners complain they already pay more than other cities in gasoline prices, sales taxes and parking. Chicago’s sales tax rate is 10.25 percent, the nation’s highest.

While Chicago’s property tax rates rank 12th nationwide, which is higher than Los Angeles and New York, the higher property values in those cities mean property owners pay thousands more a year,

Chicago has the worst-funded public pension system of any major American city and a budget shortfall of at least $750 million. Illinois’ governor, Republican Bruce Rauner, has even suggested that the city school district declare bankruptcy.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-14 06:08:21

No offense to rj and other decent people who live there, but it couldn’t happen to a nicer place.

Comment by Goon
2016-03-14 06:20:51

5 decades of Cloward-Piven and Chicago is what you get.

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Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 06:33:24

No - it is:

60 years of unbroken democrat rule.
60 years of public unions deciding who gets elected and what contracts they will offer.
60 years of a growing free sh*t army voting for the party that will promise them more free sh*t.

It happens every place it is tried.

NEVER buy a house in a place like this.

Comment by taxpayers
2016-03-14 08:27:45

rauner must be insane to want that gig

re taxes going 9.3% in seattle, a nirvana ville

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-14 12:30:24

Look at what Gov Brown did in CA, we have more money than we know what to do with. Darn Liberal!

Comment by taxpayers
2016-03-14 13:22:24

Dint worry u won’t get any of it back

Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 06:21:28

Eventually - they are going to DEMAND a bailout from you.

It will be for fairness and for the children…

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Comment by 10FeetHigher
2016-03-14 06:42:24

There aren’t enough printing presses to cover the public and private pensions and municipalities that will be failing in the next 20 yrs.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-14 06:47:12

There will be no “eventually”.

President to Chicago: “Drop dead” (like Ford to NY, back in the day)

Comment by In Colorado
2016-03-14 12:11:04

Eventually - they are going to DEMAND a bailout from you.

They can demand all they want. If it involves significantly raising taxes they’ll be told to go pound sand by voters.

Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2016-03-14 06:46:31

Work is sending me to Chicago end of month. It’s actually pretty nice there, at least where we stay (magnificent mile.) The area near the data center isn’t terrible either, but it’s all recent rehab.

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Comment by oxide
2016-03-14 07:06:47

Is this a permanent thing? Good thing you hadn’t gotten serious about buying.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-14 07:07:30

Will you be there for the summer?

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-03-14 07:13:55

and then we have this………ICE: 124 illegal immigrants released from jail later charged in 138 murder cases

Comment by 10FeetHigher
2016-03-14 07:44:21

124 with murder. How many with DUI, assault, AG assault, domestic violence, burglary, robbery, drug offenses, gun offenses, and all the rest?

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 07:47:23

I will be going on business travel back to the Mid-Atlantic area in a week for a day or so. It’s where I worked back in 08. April is a great month there. Hoping for an early spring.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-14 08:36:11

April is forecast to run a little below average temperature. Regardless of that, everything is greening up so it should be a pleasant contrast.

Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2016-03-14 10:37:04

It’s just for a few days, once or twice a year depending on new work that needs to be done. I’m not moving there. No way would I be down for those winters!

It was just ~80s here for a few days in Northern Virginia — but it seems to have cooled back off. All these people whining about global warming, I don’t want to go full lizard people but I could deal with a bit less winter.

Comment by rj chicago
2016-03-14 08:46:07

Thanks for the acknowledgement…..Helps me just get through the day here in ILLANNOY….
so all you HBB’ers know - I will indeed be moving this summer.
Much to the chagrin of Goon and In CO - I will be moving to Doug Co. / Castle Rock area - like it there a lot. The sun, the blue sky etc.
I have had it here in Chicago after 30 years. The taxes, the crime, the dirt, the politics, the declining job market, the weather, Cutler and the Bears, Bulls (suck) and on and on has forced me out.
So…I think once I move I will take on a new moniker say something like rj CR or something like that - suggestions are welcome. Even disparaging ones will be considered (sarc).

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Comment by cactus
2016-03-14 09:11:43

I have had it here in Chicago after 30 years. ”

I read lots of people leaving Chicago. It used to be CA but I think the exodus here it slowed down ? Anyway they are replaced here in CA by Chinese etc so net population probably still growing.

Comment by rj chicago
2016-03-14 09:15:10

take a look at the Uhaul reports, the United Van Line reports and you will get an idea of the exodus. As long as the Dems continue to hold a super majority in the State Congress NOTHING and I mean NOTHING will change here. Time for waiting is over and many I know if they have not already moved are seriously considering it.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-14 09:24:11

Hi, rj. Whew, I am relieved to see you posting. After the, uh, events of the weekend in Chicago, I was a little concerned about you. As you probably know by now, political comments are now restricted, for good reason, here at the HBB, so I’m just going to leave it at that. Glad you’re OK, and glad you’ve decided to move.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-03-14 12:08:13

Time for waiting is over and many I know if they have not already moved are seriously considering it.

When I ask my Silly Valley colleagues if they are considering leaving I always get a resounding “no”.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-03-14 12:35:21

Much to the chagrin of Goon and In CO - I will be moving to Doug Co. / Castle Rock area - like it there a lot. The sun, the blue sky etc.

As much as we like to complain, there is much to like here.

Comment by rj chicago
2016-03-14 13:07:49

Hey CO:
I hope when I get resettled you and Goon and I might sit on a porch on a nice Sept evening and tip a cold one and figure out the problems of the world. What say u?
And like you - I complain alot but as a local talking head here says - I may be a man with a glass half full outlook but that is why I continue to fight the good fight!! :)

Comment by Goon
2016-03-14 16:10:01

I am in Castle Rock a few times a month. Dinner and drinks at the Castle Cafe are on me when you get here.

Comment by Middle Coaster
2016-03-14 10:17:55

Hey, all of suburban Cook County is being re-assessed too. Our house is now allegedly worth some absurd amount of money according to the county. We just finished up a successful appeal that reduced our 2015 property tax bill, and now get to appeal the 2016 assessment. Life as a homeowner, good times (for real estate appeals companies).

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Comment by redmondjp
2016-03-14 11:30:11

Good job on tackling the appeal process - it is so onerous here that almost nobody does it. You have the burden of proof to show why they are wrong, and have to take time off from work to attend a meeting with the county.

My local assessors no longer even do drive-bys - they base values on comparable sales. So even having a dumpy-looking house (like I do) no longer works, as my dumpy house is considered to be worth what the fixed-up same-size houses all around me have sold for.

Comment by oxide
2016-03-14 11:35:38

Good to see your here, mid coaster.

Comment by Middle Coaster
2016-03-14 13:02:38

Thanks, oxide. Hope you are enjoying your home and ignoring the naysayers.

Redmondjp, that is why there is an entire service industry built around property tax appeals in these parts. The first couple of times I tried it myself, got nowhere. For a small fee upfront ($50) and a percentage of the first year’s savings, people who know the system and the players act on my behalf. If they don’t get a tax reduction, $50 is all they get.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 14:02:54

Are you sure?

Highland Park, IL Housing Prices Crater 5% YoY; Losses Mount For Homeowners

Comment by Middle Coaster
2016-03-14 14:20:17

HA: Highland Park is in Lake County. Their taxes are high but I don’t know if they are being re-assessed this year. Tax assessments have little to do with, and often lag behind, reality anyway.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 14:32:02

Losses are losses irrespective of location.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 14:01:56

Chicago Democrats are getting exactly the dystopia they voted for.

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Comment by taxpayers
2016-03-14 08:02:17

even FDR warned folks about gov unions
scarier than ALcady

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-14 12:22:47

there is also no such thing as free shelter.

Comment by Puggs
2016-03-14 15:27:16

^^Truth^^ Because you’re always paying rent for the land under you “paid off house”.

Comment by JB
2016-03-14 01:42:42

I’m glad that Globe and Mail with other sources started disclosing the speculative practices that take place in one of the most expensive cities to live (in relation to income) - Vancouver. I’m awaiting response from the provincial government that would help deal with this unsettling situation, in which the Canadian citizens forced to spend more, just because foreign capital keeps coming, and it is a good business for everyone who is involved.

Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-14 06:37:31

I’m awaiting response from the provincial government that would help deal with this unsettling situation

Good luck with that.

Comment by redmondjp
2016-03-14 11:33:20

You expect government to shut off the money spigot that they are drinking from? Yeah, that’ll happen . . .

In my own city, the ONLY source of increasing revenue for city government is land (re)development. Why would they want to stop that?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 03:20:22

China’s containerized freight index belies its rosey official statistics.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 03:29:15

The German sheeple experiencing “fundamental transformation” are finally turning against the globalist Angelica Merkel and her Quisling CDU.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-14 07:09:28

Immigration fetishism is dying an ugly death in the West.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 14:03:13

Not really. The DNC will need to import millions more lifetime entitlement voters to secure its permanent Democrat supermajority.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 07:17:31

I’m guessing the non-news out of the March Fed meeting will be that liftoff is indefinitely on hold, after the major market freakout that followed the first Fed rate hike in half a decade late last year.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 14:05:25

There’s a remote possibility that Goldman Sachs has gone massively short and will call Yellen and direct her to hike rates to crash the markets. Although it looks to me like Da Boyz are trying to lure the last of the retail investor bagholders into the rigged casino before they exit the pump & dump, then snap up cheap shares after the resultant bloodbath.

Comment by Goon
2016-03-14 03:47:14

Yes, your phone is spying on you:

“The StingRay is a suitcase-size device that tricks phones into giving up their serial numbers (and, often, their phone calls and texts) by pretending to be a cell phone tower. The technical name for such a device is IMSI catcher or cell-site simulator. It retails for about $400,000. Harris and competitors like Digital Receiver Technology, a subsidiary of Boeing, sell IMSI catchers to the military and intelligence communities, and, since 2007, to police departments in Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, and more than 50 other cities in 21 states.”

Comment by 10FeetHigher
2016-03-14 06:47:48

For normal solid working type people none of this matters. Stingrays are usually used to locate a person whose cell you know about. Pin them down to a specific location because they use drop phones and don’t register the phone to their home address.

Where is your cell phone registered to? 95 percent of people it is their home or work address so you’d just go there. No need for all the tech fanciness.

Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2016-03-14 06:48:35

You can practically build your own now using open source software and a SDR (Software defined radio) like the USRP2 and maybe BladeRF or HackRF.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 06:57:26

They can spy all they want, but they have to crack my encrypted files protected by my encrypted apps. Open source apps are the way.

with open source it is easy to verify the crypto algorithm.

Also when I don’t want the thugs to know where I am going I power off my phone.

Unless you are a high profile target the State won’t waste resources trying to crack your alg.

Comment by 10FeetHigher
2016-03-14 07:37:30

What could possibly be on these files that anyone would care about? You are an employee at a company. A regular working stiff like the rest of us drawing a check and giving up to Ceasar. Much as I tease, you’re a good egg living your life in a traditionally boring somewhat conservative way, not on the dole, paying your bills, not bugging anyone. Ironically, the State, would love to have many more like you!

Comment by Muggy
2016-03-14 12:28:29

“Also when I don’t want the thugs to know where I am going I power off my phone.”

Snowden stated that power indicator to user is meaningless, aswell as battery charge. In other words, “they” can have it on and make it appear off, as well as appear dead.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 20:32:02

Scuse me but. I don’t believe that. Link?

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Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-14 20:39:11

I read an interview with Snowden and he had made the reporter take the battery out of his cell phone.

Maybe that’s the trick.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 04:28:46

Seems like the Oligopoly-owned media is doubling down on its efforts to lull the sheeple into a false sense of complacency and faith in the “all is well!” meme, while insiders exit the pump & dump.

Comment by Overbanked
2016-03-14 04:28:47

How many “libertarian” posters here “make” their money through inheritances?

Comment by Jingle Male
2016-03-14 04:51:33

Goon is the only one bragging about it…..

Comment by Goon
2016-03-14 05:07:20

You’ll never get into Onwentsia, they don’t accept Realtors as members.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 05:37:03

Realtors are liars.

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Comment by Goon
2016-03-14 05:47:26

They don’t allow Realtors into the Social Register either.

Comment by 10FeetHigher
2016-03-14 06:56:14

Where did you make your debut?

Comment by oxide
2016-03-14 09:11:57

What if a Realtor lies about not being a Realtor? Does he get into Onwentsia?

Comment by In Colorado
2016-03-14 11:52:52

What if a Realtor lies about not being a Realtor? Does he get into Onwentsia?

I suspect that if you have enough money, you can get into Onwentsia, or any other country club for that matter, and they won’t ask how you made it.

Comment by Jingle Male
2016-03-14 08:35:24

I am not a realtor and I have no interest in Onwentsia. Your reality is up in smoke.

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Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 09:27:48

Youre jingle_fraud.

Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-14 06:35:46

“make” their money through inheritances?

Even homemoaners can climb mountains all day when they inherit from daddy. And then they can scoff at the people who are serving them coffee.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 07:05:01

Your jealousy is showing Lola.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 07:40:49

Envy is too common. It is historically a European disease. But too many people in the west contacted that disease and instead of high fiving decent people who inherited wealth, they hate them.

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Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-14 07:52:23

I’m not envious, I’m amused that the guy who’s always lecturing others about spoiled SJW or OWS people yakking on the iphones daddy bought them is actually one of them himself. It opens a whole new window into his political screeds about independence from government and braggadocio about falling backwards into money like a rap star.

A new narrative, one might say.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 07:57:12

You are envious. You ain’t got it and it burns you up Lola.

Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-14 08:09:48

You sure are protective of your fellow sadist, Jake.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 08:23:13

Lola….. Get yourself together and go out and earn your own.

Comment by oxide
2016-03-14 09:09:31

Please stop this bickering, especially since there is no confirmation about the situation of the particular poster in question.

Instead, I’ll turn the conversation to where there *is* confirmation. Some time ago, HBB poster Brett in Austin *did* tell us that he had inherited a chunk of change. Enough to be cushy, but not enough to change his job/lifestyle. Brett sincerely asked us for advice.

It is also worth noting that Brett did NOT taunt, or show off, or lord it over the others here. THAT is what burns people up.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 09:24:21

Brett…. another character.

Comment by cactus
2016-03-14 09:26:19

spoiled SJW or OWS people”

They all live in Boulder after they were kicked out of San Fransisco by Chinese all cash investors.

Comment by Goon
2016-03-14 10:54:23

If I write it on the internet it must all be true, right?

I’ve been working and paying taxes for over 20 years, and when I talked to him on the phone yesterday Daddy Goon was still very much alive.

Uncle Goon (Princeton class of ‘42 and Chicago Social Register) left something for my generation of Goon siblings and cousins at his death, but it’s not what you might think. If you were paying attention you’d remember I said retire from working full time, not stop working altogether. And as everyone knows, Old Boy, these 19th century Midwestern industrial fortunes just don’t go as far as they used to ;)

Believe what you want. I’ve got more narratives than you can imagine.

Comment by Overbanked
2016-03-14 15:25:11

“Envy is too common. It is historically a European disease. But too many people in the west contacted that disease and instead of high fiving decent people who inherited wealth, they hate them.”

Hence, John Hancock et al stealing what was “rightfully” George III’s property.

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Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-14 19:31:05

Hence, John Hancock et al stealing what was “rightfully” George III’s property.

Good point. America was founded by people seizing the property of the wealthy.

The wealthy, of course, had previously stolen it from the Indians.

Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 05:15:04

It would be interesting to see median salaries in there markets to see just how bubble they are…


Here are North America’s Most Expensive Housing Markets
Zero Hedge | 03/13/2016 | Tyler Durden

When the average home price in San Francisco went over the $1 million threshold in the first half of 2015, it was pretty obvious for most people that the Bay city secured the top position as the most expensive housing market in the U.S. This is exactly what happened. According to records released at the end of last year, San Francisco is the superstar housing market not only in the U.S., but for the entire North America as well.

But what may really surprise some people when looking at the top 15 list of the most expensive housing markets in North America is seeing Vancouver — the third most expensive city in the world — down in the 6th position, behind a less expected entry … Brooklyn, N.Y.! The reason for this is the same one which pushed Toronto out of the top 10 list and to #11: a weaker Canadian dollar. And guess who comes right after Toronto? Well, it’s Queens, N.Y.

#1. San Francisco, CA
Median home sale price (Dec. 2015): $1,085,000 USD

With sky-high home prices becoming the norm in San Francisco, many are wondering how long people are going to be able to afford buying a home here, especially since the condo market is not significantly cheaper than the detached-home segment.

#2. Manhattan, NY
Median home sale price (Dec. 2015): $1,059,000 USD

#3. San Jose, CA
Median home sale price (Dec. 2015): $700,000 USD

#4. Brooklyn, NY
Median home sale price (Dec. 2015): $620,000 USD

Said to be following in Manhattan’s footsteps, Brooklyn has seen home prices break all previous records in 2015. It’s a surprising entry into our list and its high median price reflects a peaking luxury market which has attracted a growing number of foreign investors.

#5. Los Angeles, CA
Median home sale price (Dec. 2015): $565,000 USD

#6. Vancouver, B.C. (Canada)
Median home sale price (Dec. 2015): $549,783 USD / $760,900 CAD

The main culprit of Vancouver’s low position in our list is the Canadian dollar. The fact that it lost strength against the US dollar made the Canadian real estate properties a much more affordable asset for American home buyers. Now an average home in Vancouver (including condos) will cost Americans just a little over $500,000 USD, which is half of what they pay now for a home in San Francisco. However, the benchmark for a single-family home was, at the end of 2015, at record-levels — $1,226,300 CAD, which still means a jaw-breaking $911,240 USD.

#7. Seattle, WA
Median home sale price (Dec. 2015): $538,500

#8. Washington, D.C.
Median home sale price (Dec. 2015): $510,838 USD

#9. San Diego, CA
Median home sale price (Dec. 2015): $510,000 USD

#10. Boston, MA
Median home sale price (Dec. 2015): $451,250 USD

#11. Toronto, ON (Canada)
Median home sale price (Dec. 2015): $443,064 USD/ $613,200 CAD

Comment by oxide
2016-03-14 06:40:19

“It would be interesting to see median salaries”

Seems like a pretty easy thing to google, so why don’t you look it up yourself? Or are you only paid for cut-and-paste piecework?

Comment by Goon
2016-03-14 06:48:05

Another weekend in the land of incalculable losses?

Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 06:57:14

Putting your bitter progressive attitude aside for moment. (and why are progressives/liberals the most unhappy and bitter people you have ever met? They have had obama for almost eight years now, obamacare, insane left wing supreme court rulings, war without end in the middle east, Hillary about to become the nominee, etc…they should be ecstatic).

It is not as simple as looking up the median salary from the census in these cities.

You or I would have to gather boatloads of other data and then refine:

1. Teenagers/college students making minimum wage or older folks on SS would probably not be in the housing market - throw out that data.
2. What % of single folks are in the market?
3. What % of married folks are in the market? What is their median combined salary?
4. Those who own a house - what kind of equity do they have to move up?
5. What are the sweetheart government programs in these markets?
6. Besides salaries - stock and bonds assets that could be used to purchase?
7. How much will mom and dad help out? What is their wealth?
8. Foreigners buying in the market?

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 07:08:22

“and why are progressives/liberals the most unhappy and bitter people you have ever met?”

Empty pockets and a mountain of revolving debt has a tendency to do that to a person.

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Comment by oxide
2016-03-14 07:17:13

“bitter progressive attitude”

Paying attention, you are not.

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Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2016-03-14 12:02:25

“4. Those who own a house - what kind of equity do they have to move up?”

Bahahaha. So ingrained in the minds of US Americans.


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Comment by taxpayers
2016-03-14 08:31:54

no one in dc ever gets fired
other cities have recessions etc

Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2016-03-14 10:43:22

2012 had some pretty decent prices from what I’ve seen via Zillow and stuff. If that returns, it would be nice!

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 12:24:46

I wouldn’t call 250% premium over long term trend and double construction cost(lot, labor, material and profit) “pretty decent”.

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Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 05:20:29

But you can be sure the Feds will jail you in a heartbeat for not paying taxes or student loans…


Justice Dept.: States shouldn’t jail over fine nonpayment
Associated Press | Mar. 14, 2016 | Eric Tucker

The Justice Department is discouraging state court systems from jailing defendants who fail to pay fines or fees, warning against practices that it says run afoul of the Constitution and erode community trust.

A letter being sent Monday by the federal government to state court administrators makes clear that judges should consider alternatives to jail for poor defendants who don’t pay their fines. It also says defendants should not be locked up without a judge first establishing that a defendant who failed to pay did so willfully.

“Furthermore, in addition to being unlawful, to the extent that these practices are geared not toward addressing public safety, but rather toward raising revenue, they can cast doubt on the impartiality of the tribunal and erode trust between local governments and their constituents,’ reads the letter from Vanita Gupta, the head of the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division.

Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-14 06:44:38

judges should consider alternatives to jail for poor defendants who don’t pay their fines. It also says defendants should not be locked up without a judge first establishing that a defendant who failed to pay did so willfully.

But they owe the company store! This would destroy the business models of countless townships like Ferguson.

the extent that these practices are geared not toward addressing public safety, but rather toward raising revenue, they can cast doubt on the impartiality of the tribunal and erode trust

Sounds commie.

Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 07:00:30

Public union goon pensions WILL be paid.

That is all you really need to know to understand this.

Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-14 07:45:23

Public union goon pensions WILL be paid.

Nope. It’s done most egregiously in smaller towns and townships like Ferguson, where the fines are what pays the cops’, judges’, and city officials’ salaries. There are no unions involved, they’re too small-time for that, hence they run a usually apartheid-based vampire legal system.

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Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 08:22:15

Sorry - wrong answer. Thanks for playing

Public unions are a parasite even in small towns.

And why most will go bankrupt.


Ferguson officer enlists police union attorney
September 29, 2014, by Associated Press

CLAYTON, MO (AP) – The suburban St. Louis County police officer who fatally shot an unarmed 18-year-old has enlisted a police union attorney who has spent decades representing members of law enforcement in court.

Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-14 08:33:12

What union is the cop in? The attorney he hired is…irrelevant.

Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-14 08:37:06

The Los Angeles Times published a piece addressing a municipal code called “manner of walking along roadway” described in the report. This code is designed to require pedestrians to walk on the sidewalks or on the side of the road, but according to the report, Ferguson police used the code to harass blacks, with African Americans accounting for 95% of “manner of walking along roadway” charges from 2011 to 2013.[33] The town imposes the highest fines in the region for violations of “manner of walking.”[34]


Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 06:52:25

They have to break encryption to get to our Swiss banks in our electronic wallets.

Slaves do not encrypt.

Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 07:03:17

Slaves also do not own guns.

Now think about who is trying to ban them…

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 14:10:58

I don’t have to think about it. The billionaire oligarchs like Soros and Bloomberg who are funding gun control initiatives have been very up-front about their agenda.

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Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 20:34:35

“Slaves do not own guns.”

Or better put, state worshippers don’t own guns.

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Comment by scdave
2016-03-14 05:23:09

Look who leads the way in food stamps….California with by far the most residents @ 38+ mil is 42nd…The most impoverished state my a$$….

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-14 05:35:13

Oregon?? That’s a shocker.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 07:21:09

You ever been to Portland? There were so many street people out on the sidewalk last time I visited that you had to avoid tripping on them.

Comment by 10FeetHigher
2016-03-14 07:04:33

California has 5 million on food stamps, more than the top 7 on your list combined!

Comment by scdave
2016-03-14 07:39:37

Maybe its to difficult for your to get your brain around the concept of per capita…But your internal angst about California comes through quite clear…Rage on…

Comment by 10FeetHigher
2016-03-14 07:54:41

It depends how and what you want to look at. Per capita is one measure. Absolute number is another. Lots of ways to lie and manipulate with stats. Nothing I said did not recognize the per capita numbers, but it enraged you to see the actual number. 5 million. Why?

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Comment by In Colorado
2016-03-14 09:41:11

It depends how and what you want to look at. Per capita is one measure.

It’s also the more meaningful measure.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-14 11:40:47

If I lived in Buffalo, NY I would be jealous of CA too.

Charlie don’t surf and we think he should / Charlie don’t surf and you know that it ain’t no good / Charlie don’t surf for his hamburger Momma / Charlie’s gonna be a napalm star

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Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 07:58:57

California is an artificially bordered area. Mountains, deserts, farmland, ocean front. Subtract the inland farm area (and inland empire) and desert and The remaining areas would be considered the highest standard of living.

I don’t know about you but my area is mostly tech companies with colleges such as UCI and Cal State Fullerton. Lots of good paying software jobs. Mostly web development, games, and cryptography. Incredible dedicated bike trails, moderate climate, Lots of good grocers selling organic produce (new Whole Foods opens up in Irvine on Saturday a mile from my office). An individual has a great opportunity to get in great physical health here. Walkability is increasing in my office area. My admin assistant and I usually walk a couple miles several times a week there.

What food stamps?

Comment by MightyMike
2016-03-14 12:02:08

It’s quite possible that the people who work at Whole Foods are eligible for food stamps. While we’re at it, it can be mentioned again that the software industry was built on corporate welfare.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 20:39:19

“The software industry was built in corporate welfare” | “government create the Internet” | “Socialist Al Gore created the Internet.” - therefore it all MUST BE FRIGGING CONTROLLED BY BUREAUCRAPS!!!!!!’

Your logic makes me swoon.

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Comment by In Colorado
2016-03-14 09:39:58

Even funnier, 9 of the top 12 (per capita) are southern, “right to work” states.

And 14% of Texans are on the dole, vs 11% of Californians.

Comment by Cracker Bob
2016-03-14 10:20:37

Those Southern states have, by far, the most AA’s.

Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 05:58:03

So why hasn’t a single banker gone to jail since 2008?

Why is there such fraud and bubbles in the financial and housing markets?

Yes - they are connected.


Why was no one prosecuted for contributing to the financial crisis? New documents reveal why
Yahoo Finance - Bethany McLean - March 12, 2016

“This gags me.” So said Elizabeth Warren in response to a Quora user, who asked, “What do you think are the real reasons that no Wall Street executives have been prosecuted for fraud as a result of the 2008 financial crisis?” Her answer, which she expounds on more thoroughly in her report Rigged Justice, is, “Weak enforcement begins at the top.”

A little background: The FCIC was set up to investigate the causes of the financial crisis. The commission didn’t have either the authority or the resources to do a criminal investigation. But as the documents show, a number of matters—involving Goldman Sachs, AIG, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and Fannie Mae—were referred to the Attorney General. No criminal prosecutions arose from any of those. (In Citigroup’s case, the SEC settled with the company and two executives in the fall of 2010 for a paltry sum. The Commission drily noted, “The SEC’s civil settlement ignores the executives running the company and Board members responsible for overseeing it. Indeed, by naming only the CFO and the head of investor relations, the SEC appears to pin blame on those who speak a company’s line, rather than those responsible for writing it.”)

The FCIC also referred what I’ve always thought was the area in which Wall street had the most exposure to the criminal authorities. That’s what Wall Street firms told investors they were buying when they bought mortgage backed securities. Or as the FCIC labeled it, “Potential Fraud: False and Misleading Representations about Loan Underwriting Standards by UBS and Other Issuers.” (UBS is mentioned specifically only because the FCIC first discovered what was happening by looking at UBS.)

It seems that in the run up to the crisis, the big banks were doing their best to play ostrich. In its public report, the FCIC wrote, “Only a small portion—as little as 2% to 3%—of the loans in any deal were sampled. When those loans turned up turnips, the banks didn’t do the logical thing, and have Clayton go investigate a bigger sample. Instead, they hid their heads in the sand—and didn’t bother to inform their investors of any of this. “Prospectuses for the ultimate investors in the mortgage-backed securities did not contain this information, or information on how few loans were reviewed, raising the question of whether the disclosures were materially misleading, in violation of the securities laws,” the FCIC wrote in its report.

The FCIC went on to note that while the banks did disclose that they might include loans that didn’t meet the stated criteria, they didn’t disclose just how many loans that was. And if a loan didn’t meet the stated criteria, there were supposed to be “compensating factors.” If there weren’t compensating factors—or if the banks hadn’t even bothered to look to know if there were compensating factors—well, then this was a false statement. And if the statement was material, “there could be a violation of the federal securities laws.” Or as the FCIC put it, there were “two possible areas of misrepresentation…failure to disclose the gross numbers [of] waivers of underwriting standards, and inaccuracy in disclosing that not all waived loans had confirmed compensating factors.”

What happened then? Well, in this case, not nothing. The big banks have paid a lot of shareholders’ money to make this go away. The Wall Street Journal just did a remarkable tally, and found out that the big banks have, to date, paid $110 billion in mortgage-related fines, many stemming from the Justice Department’s investigations. (The Journal’s examination of where the money has gone is a scandal in and of itself, but that’s another story.)

So the two sides hammered out a settlement, every single word of which you can bet was heavily negotiated. The Justice Department gets money, and gets to trumpet a victory, and Morgan Stanley and its employees get to walk away. More broadly, that’s what has happened with all the banks. And the rest of us? Well, we don’t know whether the big banks bought off the US government, or whether the US government extorted the banks. We’re left with no real answers as to why no one could be prosecuted in a crisis that defined our times.

Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 06:04:32

Epic bubble coming…


Chinese developers muscling in to Bay Area housing market
San Francisco Chronicle | March 13, 2016 | Kathleen Pender

The flood of Chinese money into Bay Area housing is coming not just from home buyers. Developers and investors are also building and backing large residential projects here. They mainly want to diversify away from China’s overbuilt market but also serve Chinese buyers wanting a home in the Bay Area.

Singpoli also runs Invest LA, an EB-5 regional center program. These programs connect U.S. developers with foreign investors, these days mainly from China. The program awards green cards to foreign investors and their families who invest at least $500,000 or $1 million (depending on the location) in a business that directly or indirectly creates or preserves 10 U.S. jobs.

The newest investment came in late February from Landsea Holdings, the U.S. subsidiary of one of China’s largest home builders. It paid $186 million for a 24-acre Sunnyvale site entitled for 450 townhomes. John Ho, Landsea’s CEO, estimated that up to 30 percent of the townhomes will be purchased by people from China.

Comment by scdave
2016-03-14 06:12:29

estimated that up to 30 percent of the townhomes will be purchased by people from China ??

From what I am witnessing I would say more like 75%…Maybe more…

Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 06:22:30

And now - all green card holders for their “investment”

Comment by Goon
2016-03-14 06:08:39

Did somebody say “falling house prices?”

Comment by Goon
2016-03-14 06:18:13

1190 S Race St, 2250 S Monroe St, both dropped asking price by $100,000 and there are no buyers to be found.

Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 06:27:55

Denver - 2banana’s FAVORITE bubble city.

It is not the biggest. It is not the most epic.

I just like the silliness.

1. Denver’s average salaries are so low compared to the average price of housing. But the snootiness equals California.

2. There is noting quite like looking at a $600,000 poorly built new house build on a postage stamp lot with no real dedicated water supply and turning around on that same front porch and literally see 100’s of square miles of undeveloped land.

Comment by Goon
2016-03-14 06:39:42

It’s getting to the point where you can’t make any real money in the weed biz in Denver. At $1200/pound wholesale it’s almost as worthless as Denver houses.

Stick a fork in this place because it’s over.

Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 06:45:24

HA! You should hear how everyone involved in the “business” are complaining about all the taxes they have to pay.

And how they are NOT getting rich.

“It is getting to the point I will have to go back to the black market to make any money.”

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-14 07:10:35

The first house on the sidebar:

03/05/16 Price change $599,000-0.2% $539 –
03/02/16 Listed for sale $600,000+450% $540 Owner
08/28/96 Sold $109,000 $98

Three days and he cuts a thousand off.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-14 07:19:04

A thousand? Whoop-de-friggin’-do. Why do they even bother?

This is something that comes up in the Greenwich, Ct. realtor’s blog, feeble price cuts. Of course, in Greenwich, a $10,000 price cut is considered feeble. Even $100,000 is sometimes considered feeble, depending upon the property. When the guy sees this, he comments “Yep, that’ll work”.

Comment by 10FeetHigher
2016-03-14 07:13:26

Where are the new frontiers? Won’t there be other states legalizing it who are going to need to get up and running and where you could do the same thing you did in Colorado? At least until Big MJ moves in.

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Comment by oxide
2016-03-14 09:18:21

IIRC DC tried to legalize but was overridden by the Feds.

And if you think it’s not a moneymaker now, wait until there’s a state east of the Mississippi. You’ll lose even more tourist dollars.

Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2016-03-14 11:36:11

I think it’s legal in DC, or quasi? I’ve seen on reddit that there is some car that rolls around and it’s wrapped in vinyl printed stuff about weed and they will give it to you if you donate to their non-profit. The cops aren’t amused or something.

Comment by cactus
2016-03-14 10:23:50

At $1200/pound wholesale it’s almost as worthless as Denver houses.’

Now how will they afford to buy the over priced pesticides ?

Avid 0.15 EC #1 Choice for SpiderMites Miticide/Insecticide 32oz. QUART
More than 10 available

+ Free Shipping

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Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-14 22:09:14

easier to grow than artichokes….

gonna be dirt cheap after CA makes it legal.

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Comment by In Colorado
2016-03-14 09:14:01

and turning around on that same front porch and literally see 100’s of square miles of undeveloped land.

It depends. On the east side (say Aurora) that is definitely true. But the west side is pretty much built right up to the foothills. Guess where houses cost more?

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 10:06:02

Material and labor prices are higher on one side of town versus the other?

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 06:55:54

Oh no…don’t tell me recession fears are back again, now that the bulls have FINALLY managed to get their New Year’s drunken bash underway!

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 06:58:24

Morgan Stanley cuts S&P 500 target as recession fears rise
By Sara Sjolin
Published: Mar 14, 2016 8:28 a.m. ET
But U.S. remains favorite stock market
Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg
Morgan Stanley sees the U.S. and global economies slowing down, making equities less attractive

Morgan Stanley strategists are growing increasingly concerned about the risk of a global recession, slashing forecasts for all major equity markets and advising investors to sell stocks that have recently rallied.

In a report out on Monday, the bank’s global strategy team cut its 12-month target for the S&P 500 index (SPX, -0.41%) to 2,050 from 2,175, indicating the U.S. benchmark over the next year only will rise 1.4% from its close of 2,022.19 on Friday. This comes after the index rallied 8.4% over the past month, driven in part by a rebound in oil prices and upbeat economic data from the U.S.

However, there’s nothing to indicate the rally will continue, neither in the U.S. or elsewhere, according to the Wall Street bank.

“Weaker growth forecasts and rising political risk lead us to close our positive tactical stance and lower exposure in global equities,” the analysts said in the note. “The probability of a global recession has risen.”

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 07:00:17

Attribution: MarketWatch dot com

Comment by cactus
2016-03-14 10:29:24

“The probability of a global recession has risen.”

What will that do to choice US investment RE ? down like japan in the 1990’s or up as investors sell and move money to a safe place?

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 07:01:31

Beware the Ides of March.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 07:13:50

This chart explains how the Baltic Dry Index could spell doom for the global economy
Matthew Nitch Smith
Mar. 9, 2016, 9:03 AM
sinking containter cargo ship
Shipping is a good indicator of how the global economy’s doing

Even if you follow markets and global economics news, you still may not know what the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is and why it matters.

You might guess it’s related to shipping – and you’d be right.

The BDI is a very useful gauge of global trade, and tells you how much it costs to move goods around the world in massive ships. These goods can be pretty much anything: iron ore, grain, coal … stuff the world needs to build things and function.

As such, analysts keen to predict how the health and future of the global economy like to pay close attention to it.

It is frequently used as a so-called canary in the coal mine for the state of the world economy and how well international trade is doing. If the price is low, it suggests trade is slowing.

And that’s the problem. As this chart shows, right now it’s doing really badly.

In fact this is the worst it’s ever been. To put it in perspective, it was at 11,000 points in May 2008, just before the financial crash. Now, it’s below 300.

This matters because BDI drops have historically predicted economic crashes. It did in 2008 and it did again last November when commodity and oil prices jumped off a cliff.

As usual, most people are blaming this on China. Two years ago, the country shipped in over half the world’s iron-ore and 25% of its coal. But China grew by only 7.4% last year when previously it was running at well over 10%.

Exports from China have also plunged, dropping 25.4% in February from the same time last year.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-14 07:02:09

Totally OT, but did anyone catch that “Little Big Shots” show hosted by Steve Harvey last night? I’m a Harvey fan, so I tuned in just to see him, but a couple of the kids were amazing. Loved the Japanese kid’s Bruce Lee act.

It’s good fun. Recycling the old Art Linkletter “Kids Say the Darnedest Things” only with stunts, but very nicely done.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-03-14 09:07:52

I rarely watch TV anymore, which is why I have an el cheapo ($300) flat panel, unlike some acquaintances who have a $2000+ set, which is always blaring, even though no one is watching, when I drop by for a quick visit.They also have the $100+ per month satellite package. When they see my modest TV (which is always turned off when they visit) and the $30 indoor HD antenna they are shocked and wonder how I can live like that.

When I show them my flip phone they pass out.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-14 09:17:58

Hah! You must be my brother from another mother! I have a similar set up and my flat panel is even more el cheapo than yours, lol. And people laugh at my phone, too.

Comment by phony scandals
2016-03-14 11:15:10

“When I show them my flip phone they pass out.”

Show them your wife’s cabbages, your daughter’s faceless doll and your son’s stick and hoop and they will really freak.

The Settlers: Satisfaction - DirecTV TV Commercial - YouTube - 187k -

DIRECTV Commercial 2016 The Settlers Privacy - YouTube - 190k -

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 14:16:24

Testify, my long-lost brothers! I cut the cable three years ago and don’t miss it one bit. And my flip phone does exactly what it’s intended to do: makes phone calls and sends the occasional essential text. While my friends are constantly needing to charge their smart phones while giving corporate America full access to every website or place they’ve ever visited, I can go days on a single charge. Just say no to being tethered to your phone or computer.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 20:47:26

“I rarely watch TV anymore.”

I see sports Center from 5am to 6am when I am on some cardio equipment at the gym. Lately half the show on Sports Center is about Steph Curry. He is amazing isn’t he? I would dream of being able to go to a couple of games.

Other than that, I use my 35″ TeeVee for checking my progress on Ethereum smart contracts or to create another offline cold storage wallet in some crypto currency denomination.

Comment by Jake
Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-14 10:57:53

Last time I was in Malibu, it did feel like the Appalachians or upper State NY.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 14:07:49

For you its a distinction without a difference kiddo.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-03-14 07:27:43

Bend, OR Housing Market Caves; Prices Crater 16% YoY As Housing Correction Gains Speed

Comment by azdude
2016-03-14 07:32:53

“We wonder if this sentiment has been revised now that Bloomberg actually has the “big picture”, and realizes that the only thing pushing the market higher is bond issuance (courtesy of central banks) whose proceeds are used to immediately buy all the stock that investors are dumping. ”

Stock buybacks baby!

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-03-14 07:42:01

Vienna, VA Housing Markets Implodes; Prices Plunge 10% YoY As Market Seizes Up

Comment by oxide
2016-03-14 09:38:18

Meanwhile, a house on the next block just sold at its initial wishing price, no price reductions. Sale price was 6% above Zestimate, and IMO 15% more than it’s really worth.

And it’s not even a pergraniteel flip. From the pix, the basement is living in the 1970’s, the kitchen is living the 1980’s, and the bathrooms are — well I don’t know. They couldn’t even be arsed to paint the bathrooms. Small yard too. There has got to be some chicanery going on.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 09:49:35

Post a link.

Comment by oxide
2016-03-14 12:26:43

Jake, you know I won’t do that.

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Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 12:32:35

Nor can you.

Comment by cactus
2016-03-14 10:32:58

There has got to be some chicanery going on.’

yea because prices always go down ..

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-03-14 07:47:45

Sarasota, FL Housing Market Craters; Prices Plummet 16% YoY As Speculators Dump Properties

Comment by taxpayers
2016-03-14 08:04:05

how much would the 10yr rate rise if the fed unloaded 2 trillion of “assets” over a one year period?

por que es?

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 08:04:31

Excessive litigation drives up the costs of goods and services and limits job creation.

Just sayin’…

Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 08:29:55

You ever wonder why tort reform never passes? Why trial lawyers can sure anyone for any reason? Why businesses and manufactures refuse to invest? Why no loser pays?

Top All-Time Donors, 1989-2014

16 American Assn for Justice $49,343,405 - 93% to democrats

and just for comparison:

49 Koch Industries $29,519,116 - 94% to republicans

Funny how the left never rails about Big Law. How they never complain how Big Law is buying elections…

Comment by MightyMike
2016-03-14 09:01:12

All litigation must drive up costs, not just excessive litigation.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-14 10:55:13

+1 , yes, attorneys are destroying America.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-14 08:11:46

There used to be an old expression “Who whizzed in your Wheaties?” Now it’s “Who whizzed in your Rice Krispies?” for real. Gross.

This is one reason why processed foods can be hazardous to your health.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-14 11:42:18

and the Wendy’s chili story….

people are getting crazier or the Internet is exposing them more??

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 20:54:43

“This is a wonder which processed foods can vpbe hazardous to your health.”

Or produce.

I usually buy my white mushrooms unpackaged. I bought about six servings of mipushrooms in a plastic wrapped container. Consumed four per day for three days. Tonight I took out another four for the cutting board and sauce pan, then I saw an object roll in the container.

Enough said. I threw those four and the remainder out.

I am feeling okay in my pipes and probably will be okay.

Lesson: You never know if “fresh” produce is fresh or clean.

We city slickers are at the mercy of Juan and Rose.

Comment by cactus
2016-03-14 08:49:38
Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 09:33:12

“Egypt Devalues Pound In Bid To Ease Acute Dollar Shortage”

A shortage of dollars? How can this be?

There is no shortage of oil, land, houses, materials of types…… but I think they’re onto something with this dollar shortage thing.

Comment by phony scandals
2016-03-14 10:31:50

That Jean-Claude Van Damme was one hell of an actor. :)

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-14 11:45:44

Lol, he certainly named the names, didn’t he?

BTW, did you go to Boca? If so, Liddle, LiDDle. I watched the live stream.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-14 11:56:54

ROTFL, Alex Jones is in seventh heaven these days. Sometimes he looks like he’s about to rapture any minute.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 14:18:27

Odd how characters like him that used to be dismissed as “conspiracy theorists” are shown to be right all along on some of those tinfoil claims of theirs.

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Comment by palmetto
2016-03-14 15:48:15

True. I gotta give Jones props. He goes from a minor local cable access and radio show host to a major force in internet programming, with a huge audience. And the Brit boy wonder, Paul Joseph Watson, is said to be one of the best investigative journalists ever. I guess his youthful looks have fooled people who underestimated him.

Comment by I am yuuuge in Burma
2016-03-14 16:12:14

I liked his films growing up. Hope he wins Nobel prize for his next movie.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-14 18:33:53

Check this out. Van Damme Epic Split Feat for Volvo Trucks. Unbelievable.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 21:05:22

I was worried for an instant. I saw the word “was.” Google search showed he is not dead. In the early 90s my sister’s friends told her I look like Jean Claude Van Damme. We were at a party where they say me. I was in my very early 30s, taller than Van Damme. I was bummed because I was hearing I looked like Arnold. But I watched several Van Damme movies after that, looked in the mirror and said “Damme!”

Now just a shell of my former self, humbled and overlooked by the chicks, I hope to look like Greg Lemonde in his prime. I am just as ugly as 55 year old Van Damme. But I have been with some fantastic women in my younger days!

Comment by Hard Rain
Comment by 2banana
2016-03-14 10:56:57

They put bankers in jail in Iceland.

Comment by Hard Rain
2016-03-14 10:49:27

65 year old men with incomes of 13k and 246k of student loan debt are not buying $500,000.00 starter homes.

Comment by Hard Rain
2016-03-14 10:50:46

Robert E. Murphy lost his job nearly 14 years ago and says he hasn’t been able to find a new one. Now 65, he has already depleted his retirement savings, which has left him and his wife largely dependent on her $13,200 yearly salary as a teacher’s aide. And a bank is trying to foreclose on their Duxbury home.

Comment by phony scandals
2016-03-14 11:06:26

“Based on these facts, Murphy might seem a sympathetic petitioner for relief from the more than $246,000 he still owes on student loans he borrowed to send his three children to college.”

Crazy thought

Maybe his three children could help him pay the loans back.

Comment by Jimmy Carter is Hitler
2016-03-14 11:18:21

“Maybe his three children could help him pay the loans back.”

With what? The money from their barrista jobs?

Comment by phony scandals
2016-03-14 11:40:37

“With what? The money from their barrista jobs?”

Are you “peddling fiction.”?

By Peter Schroeder - 01/12/16 09:19 PM EST

President Obama gave a full-throated defense of his economic record in his State of the Union address, accusing his critics of “peddling fiction.”

“The United States of America, right now, has the strongest, most durable economy in the world,” he said, according to prepared remarks. “Anyone claiming that America’s economy is in decline is peddling fiction.”

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Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-14 12:17:59

not everyone is a failure. plenty of nursing jobs out there.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 14:19:35

Iran is getting ready to hang a billionaire fraudster. What a concept.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-14 11:33:19

Rent for half the cost of owning??

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 21:08:58

It happens. But most people are drinking the Kool-Aid of loan ownership and throw away the virginity of all their daughters to be able to be in a house.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-14 11:37:14

More “half the cost of owning”

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 12:31:17

San Jose, CA Housing Market Implodes; Prices Crater 9% YoY As Mortgage Defaults Balloon

Why buy it when you can rent it for half the monthly cost? Buy later after prices crater for 65% less.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2016-03-14 13:13:49

Updated March 10, 2016 - 10:35pm
Every Las Vegas ZIP code sees home appreciation in ‘15

What goes up…is still going up.
For the third straight year in 2015, every ZIP code in the Las Vegas Valley posted home-price gains, according to new numbers from local analysis firm SalesTraq.
While improvements vary from neighborhood to neighborhood, overall statistics reflect ongoing recovery from recession in one of the nation’s worst-hit housing markets.

:-p Comments reflect the locals’ skepticism.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 13:45:43

German populist parties are putting ECB head Draghi on notice that he can no longer count on unlimited German taxpayer bailouts for his banker cohorts and the PIIGS deadbeats. Is “extend and pretend” finally running out of road to kick the can?

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-03-14 21:10:36

I am half German. But I neither buy Hitler nor Marx.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 13:53:23

While Frau Merkel will not deviate one iota in carrying out her globalist handlers’ orders for “fundamental transformation,” especially for something as inconsequential as German public opinion, her Quisling CDU has a narrowing window of time to impose its agenda before enraged, awakened voters throw them out of power.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 13:55:51

Frau Merkel admits her refugee policy is bad for Germany, but her globalist-oligarch masters have issued their orders and political lackeys like Merkel have no choice but to carry them out to the letter.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 13:57:39

The silly German serfs think they can get Merkel to abandon her oligarch-dictated policies. How delusional…but soon we shall have our own Frau Merkel.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 14:23:11

Just when you think Keynesian central planners and central bankers can’t get any loonier….

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 14:30:17

How young couples and new families are shafted by central bankers and their asset bubbles. How’s that vote for Oligopoly-owned candidates working out for ya, youngsters?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 14:49:15

“With real median household no higher than it was in 1988, the Wall Street criminal banks and their Madison Avenue maggot propaganda machine convinced the masses to add $2.8 trillion of consumer debt since 1988, a 500% increase. Meanwhile GDP has only gone up by 350%. The establishment has stolen the wages of the people while simultaneously enslaving them in chains of debt. TARP, ZIRP, QE, the $800 billion porkulus plan, Obamacare, non-stop social engineering, black lives matter, never ending wars, and now more jobs sacrificed at the altar of TPP, have pushed working class Americans beyond the point of no return. They are finally fighting back.”

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 14:58:49

Importing millions of functional illiterate entitlement voters is a central tenet of fundamental transformation. Forward!

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 15:06:52

Worker unrest in China is about to get real. I wonder how many of them are dusting off their grandparents’ Little Red Book and reading up on Mao’s advice on how to stage a revolution against your capitalist roader overlords.–finance.html

Comment by Puggs
2016-03-14 15:30:13

When a used car you’ve been looking at for the last month changes price ^^UP^^ by 4K and actually SELLS… you know you’ve reentered the irrational exuberant zone.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 16:00:17

John Kasich, who presided over the meltdown of Lehman Bros back in ‘08, is now the oligarchy’s dark horse stooge in the Establishment GOP primary as Marco Rubio’s campaign is floundering.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-14 18:38:03

No wonder Kasich backs shamnasty.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 17:12:04


Comment by Muggy
2016-03-14 18:10:30

Sign me up!

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 17:32:29

The neocon success stories just keep piling up, and adding trillions to our national debt.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-14 17:34:48

Will oligarchy sock puppet Marco Rubio meet the same fate as the unloved, unwanted (except by the Establishment) Jeb Bush?

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-14 18:31:47

He’ll end up like his Senate seat opponent, Charlie Crist, former Bush protege and governor of Florida, doing commercials for a personal injury law firm.

Marco Rubio denounces freedom of speech:

“This is what a culture and a society looks like when everybody says whatever the heck they want, when everyone just goes around saying ‘I’m just going to speak my mind,’” Rubio said at a morning press conference in Largo, Fla. “Well, there are other people that are angry, too. And if they speak out and say whatever they want, it all breaks down. It’s called chaos. It’s called anarchy. And that’s what we’re careening towards.”

From WaPo. Not gonna link to it, on account of it mentions Mr. T.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 18:17:04

Oil futures slide, give up almost half of last week’s gain
Published: Mar 14, 2016 3:06 p.m. ET
Iran’s oil minister rejects production freeze until country’s output rises
By Myra P. Saefong
Markets/commodities reporter
Dan Strumpf

Oil futures settled with a loss of more than 3% Monday, giving up nearly half of last week’s gain, as Iran again tossed cold water on market speculation for a production cut and weak economic data from China raised worries about the outlook for energy demand.

The move at a minimum pauses a rally that took crude near its highs of the year following a report from the International Energy Agency that said prices may have bottomed.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 18:52:40

How long until the subprime auto loan bubble implodes? I’d like to get a used car on the cheap.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 18:55:04

ft dot com > Companies > Industrials >
March 14, 2016 4:04 pm
Fears rise over US car-loan delinquencies
Robin Wigglesworth in New York

Delinquencies on poor-quality US car loans have climbed to their highest level in almost two decades, according to Fitch Ratings, reinforcing concerns over the rapidly growing market.

The rate of “subprime” motor loans overdue by more than 60 days rose to 5.16 per cent in February. This surpassed the post-financial crisis peak and was the highest since the 5.96 per cent reading in October 1996, according to the rating agency.

Subprime car loans have long been a concern for analysts, some of whom feared that rapid issuance since the crisis and weakening lending standards would cause problems in the market for securitised motor loans. There, banks repackage loans into asset-backed securities and sell them on to investors, much like they did with subprime mortgages in the 2000s.

“Sharp origination growth, increased competition and weaker underwriting standards over the past three years have all contributed to the weaker performance of the past year,” Fitch Ratings said in its report.

The overall US car finance market passed $1tn in 2015, powered by strong car sales. Issuance of US motor loan-backed ABS climbed 17 per cent to $82.5bn last year, according to data provider Dealogic, the strongest year for such sales since 2005.

Fitch tracks the performance of almost $100bn of car loans that have been securitised into so-called asset-backed bonds, of which just over a third is considered subprime. The delinquency rate on prime US motor ABS stood at just 0.46 per cent in February, up slightly month-on-month but flat compared to the same month in 2015.

Subprime typically means borrowers with scores below 620 from FICO, the biggest credit risk scorer, which rates consumers from 300 to 850.

Fitch expects both prime and subprime car loan ABS performance to improve this spring because of tax refunds, but that the seasonal benefits will be more muted given the weakening of loan quality and the expected softening of the US wholesale car market.

“Both the prime and subprime sectors have been buoyed by strong used-vehicle values over the past five years, contributing to lower loss severity on defaults,” the report said. “However, with new-vehicle sales and expected off-lease vehicle supply levels at historical highs entering 2016, Fitch anticipates weakness in the wholesale market.”

Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-14 20:02:09

Putin pulling Russian troops out of Syria: “Mission Accomplished”.

Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-14 20:40:42

Ran out of money.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 22:46:24

That got the Ruskies out of Afghanistan, to my recollection.

Comment by Muggy
2016-03-14 20:24:25

Debt Donkeydom is eminent… damn the torpedoes.

Plan B (in 4 years): stop paying my mortgage and live for free for five years. It’s the nuclear option. It’s my only hand; my only play.


Comment by Jake
2016-03-14 20:28:15

Don’t be a Lola.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 22:45:06

We’ll look forward to hearing your thoughts after the Echo Bubble goes kablooey.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-14 22:43:54

It’s so sad to witness unrest at a lovefest.

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