March 31, 2016

An Ominous Echo Of The Housing Crash

A report from the Kansas City Business Journal. “On Wednesday morning, Katie Yeager, owner/broker of Your Future Address LLC in Overland Park, tried to show a couple three different area homes that had just hit the market. The prospective homebuyers weren’t allowed to tour any of them, however, because the sellers of all three had already accepted offers, Yeager said. ‘There’s hardly any inventory,’ said Jeff Hill, president-elect of the Kansas City Regional Association of Realtors. ‘So a house that looks good and is priced reasonably is going to have a ton of activity and multiple offers on the first day it’s on the market. That’s true for homes up to $300,000, and there’s even $400,000 and $500,000 houses in the right areas that are selling the first day with multiple offers.’”

WMDT in Maryland. “Local realtors say millennials in Salisbury and Wicomico County are making a decision that makes more sense now than it did for the same generation in previous years. Realtors we spoke to also said there are a variety of programs at both the national and state level that make it easier to become a home owner. Realtor Zach Bankert said his clients have used a U.S. Department of Agriculture program that helps with mortgages in rural areas like Salisbury.”

“‘They’ve used USDA financing, which is zero percent down, they got the Maryland mortgage program, $5000 interest free loan to help towards closing costs, and with a little bit of seller contribution, you know, they’ve gotten into a house for basically nothing,’ Bankert said.”

The Contra Costa Times in California. “The conversation that is going around the real estate industry water cooler is, ‘Are we in the bubble in the Bay Area and when is it going to burst?’ ‘This is not a bubble,’ says Chris Thornberg, an economist in Los Angeles. ‘The money flooding the Bay Area isn’t built on speculation like the last boom. These are people with real money, with real incomes. They have enough money to live in whatever cities and neighborhoods they want, so if there’s not enough high-end housing, they’ll just gentrify lower-income neighborhoods.’”

“Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at UC Berkeley, said, ‘The high-tech boom we have is unsustainable. Job growth is unsustainable. There will be, in the next three years, a correction. These unicorns (private companies valued at more than $1 billion) will have to cut jobs. That will have by far the most important impact’ on the housing market. The only question, he said, ‘is whether it’s a minor decline or something more substantial.’”

“At this point, with sky-high home prices, house lusting families are willing to do anything to buy even if this means they are setting themselves up for the next wave of foreclosures. Quicken Loan is pushing the rocket mortgage which you can ‘Push Button, Get Stuff’ — sounds about right for a marketing slogan for a Twitter addicted audience that probably has totally forgotten the sins caused by the first Great Recession. Now you can get a mortgage while sitting on the can or going zero down up to $2 million. What can possibly go wrong? So feel free to buy that $1.2 million shack in San Francisco with a 30-year $1 million mortgage. I’m sure that startup will be around in 30 years.”

The Denver Post in Colorado. “Denver’s single-family housing market, with some of the strongest home price appreciation and fastest turnover times in the country, often gets pegged as a bubble in the making. Zillow research director Krishna Rao argues that those looking for a bubble should instead focus on metro Denver’s multi-family rental market. More than 31,000 multi-family permits have been pulled the past four years, a record-setting pace. And new units are expected to keep hitting the market even though more supply means landlords are being forced to dial back on rent increases and provide heftier concessions.”

“He said oversupply will only get worse, given the long times needed to plan and complete apartments. ‘Taken together, all of this suggests that while demand so far has been sufficient to absorb those units that have already come online, it may be stretched to accommodate the tens of thousands of units builders are planning to deliver over the coming years,’ Rao said.”

The Bay State Banner in Massachusetts. “Real estate broker Delince Louis is bullish on Roxbury’s real estate market. A three-bedroom Dorr Street condo his firm sold last year for $550,000 is now back on the market for $618,000. One single family at 10 Elmore Street sold recently for $550,000 in cash to a Chinese graduate student. Another single family at 45 Elmore Street sold for $590,000. Those prices are still far below the $799,000-$879,000 asking prices for condos on Wyman Street in neighboring Jamaica Plain.”

“The gulf between the higher values in abutting neighborhoods and lower values in Roxbury hasn’t stopped sellers from reaching. There’s the nine-room puddingstone house in the Highland Park section of Roxbury that was last year listed at $829,000. It didn’t sell and is now on the market for $750,000. Then there’s a rather battered looking triple decker near Dudley Square. ‘Great opportunity for developers! Major rehab in the heart of Roxbury,’ reads the $659,900 listing on Trulia. That property hasn’t sold in the 56 days it has been on the real estate website Trulia, despite a price reduction from its original $699,000 asking price.”

“The undisputed king of the high asking prices is 27 Howland Street, where a developer carved out a 4,500 square foot unit and a 3,500 square foot unit from a three-story home and listed listed them for $1.39 million and $1.34 million, respectively. Those prices are down from $1.5 and 1.4 million when the property debuted on Trulia 83 days ago. Will the developer get those prices? ‘I don’t think so,’ says broker Kobe Evans. ‘I don’t see it happening. There are some smooth-talking agents who get owners thinking about prices they wouldn’t ask for.’”

The Wall Street Journal on Florida. “Miami is facing a condo bust—again. Developers have started canceling projects, slashing prices and offering incentives such as private-jet access to spur sales, an ominous echo of the housing crash that pounded South Florida especially hard. In the fourth quarter of 2015, the number of Miami Beach condo transactions declined nearly 20% from a year earlier, while inventory jumped by nearly a third, according to a report from appraisal firm Miller Samuel Inc. The median sales price slipped 6.6%, according to the report.”

“Many of the forces buffeting the Miami market are also hitting luxury markets in New York, Southern California, Australia and London. A strong U.S. dollar and weakening local currencies, dropping oil prices and global economic turbulence have crimped the buying power of foreign investors. ‘The condo market has peaked,’ said Neisen Kasdin, a real-estate development lawyer at Akerman LLP in Miami. ‘Sales velocity has slowed down considerably.’”




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185 Comments »

Comment by Jingle Male
2016-03-31 04:42:23

I guess the Bits Bucket has discontinued, so I will post this topic here:

CRAIGSLIST IS FULL OF FRAUD POSTINGS!

I have never seen it so bad in Sacramento. About every third listing is a fraudster. They won’t disclose the address (so you don’t disturb the existing tenant) and want you to click a link to submit all your info to get your credit report.

Sure…..no prob.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 06:14:01

And you’re likely behind every one of the Jingle_Fraud.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2016-03-31 06:42:35

its been that way for years we used to never see adult porn ads in the gigs section and the flagging system barely works anymore……..i dont know why they let is get useless like this…but everyone else is worse…..

 
Comment by Puggs
2016-03-31 09:04:20

And what’s up with all the salvage titled cars on CL…?!!?

Comment by redmondjp
2016-03-31 10:49:58

A simple non-airbag deployment fender bender (especially in the rear) totals most cars these days, requiring a “rebuilt” title . . . so it is not surprising that so many cars have them.

Some businesses (look up Millenium Motors in Portland) specialize in buying rebuilders from the insurance auctions, and then fixing and reselling them.

Comment by Puggs
2016-03-31 11:15:18

OK, that explains why I see so much on PDX CL. I suppose if it’s been fixed right it MIGHT be a deal.

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Comment by Bluto
2016-03-31 11:32:13

If a car or motorcycle is totaled and the owner is paid off by the insurance company it is then auctioned off with a salvage title in California at least. Some bottom feeders try to make a fast buck by flipping them and like house flippers they have every incentive to cut corners on repairs. These cars can be difficult to insure and often have damage that is not obvious but becomes apparent one way or another down the line.

 
 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2016-03-31 09:54:27

“I guess the Bits Bucket has discontinued, so I will post this topic here”

Law of Unintended Consequences…

 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-03-31 04:42:52

Dept of ag offering home “programs”
How many gov agencies involved w housing?
10,20,50?
Chop heads

Comment by GDLipschitz
2016-03-31 17:34:47

Illegal Immigration affects and permeates everything and it is the most important issue by far. It affects:

Housing
Education
Health Care
Law Enforcement
National Security

 
 
Comment by Shekels
2016-03-31 04:46:55

Local Realtors say millennials…

BARF

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 05:11:07

‘Realtor Zach Bankert said his clients have used a U.S. Department of Agriculture program that helps with mortgages in rural areas like Salisbury. ‘They’ve used USDA financing, which is zero percent down, they got the Maryland mortgage program, $5000 interest free loan to help towards closing costs, and with a little bit of seller contribution, you know, they’ve gotten into a house for basically nothing,’ Bankert said.’

USDA is targeted at low income people.

‘A recent report by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a federal agency that regulates the nation’s banks, warns that declines in mortgage underwriting standards are mirroring pre-crisis trends.

‘Underwriting standards eased at a significant number of banks for the three-year period from 2013 through 2015,’ the report said. ‘This trend reflects broad trends similar to those experienced from 2005 through 2007, before the most recent financial crisis.’ Not since 2006, it noted, have lenders taken on so much credit risk, and it says the hazard will continue to grow this year: ‘Examiners expect the level of credit risk to increase over the next 12 months.’

‘A large chunk of the risk is coming from first-time home buyers with shaky credit and so-called ‘rebound’ buyers who previously defaulted on home loans. The demand from otherwise ­uncreditworthy home buyers ‘is driving home prices up faster than incomes and inflation,’ noted ­Edward Pinto, co-director of AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk in Washington.’

‘This is especially true in hot spots like California, where subprime-mortgage lenders offering interest-only loans with no FICO-score requirements are cropping up from the ashes of Countrywide Financial, the bankrupt subprime giant.’

‘In another sign housing is overheating, home ‘flipping’ is red hot again and hitting levels not seen since just prior to the mortgage meltdown. Nationwide, almost 180,000 homes were sold and then resold last year — the highest level since 2007. In fact, according to RealtyTrac, flipping in a dozen metro areas — including New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, Miami and Jacksonville, Fla. — exceeded peaks set in 2005.’

‘Like the last bubble, this one is fueled by artificial demand from government-induced lax lending standards and accommodative interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. Today’s relaxation in mortgage-underwriting standards is largely a function of government housing-policy changes at FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which dominate the nation’s mortgage activity. As in the last easy-credit cycle, we are seeing ‘the promotion of policy to push firms to seek riskier products to promote growth,’ Wells Fargo Chief Economist John Silvia said.’

‘All three agencies have slashed down-payment and other requirements under pressure from Obama regulators, who include, most significantly, former Congressional Black Caucus leader and Obama appointee Mel Watt, head of the new Federal Housing Finance Agency, which now controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.’

‘Last year, Fannie Mae launched a new subprime-mortgage product called HomeReady that caters to recent immigrants with weak credit and limited income. The new loan program, which offers ‘income flexibility,’ allows borrowers for the first time to bundle income from roommates and relatives to meet qualifications for income. They only have to put 3% down, and can use gifts from nonprofit groups to subsidize their down payments.’

‘There is no limit on the number of non-borrower household members who can be present on a single transaction,’ Fannie advises originators. And even then there is ’documentation flexibility,’ a frightening echo of last decade’s ‘no-doc loans.’

‘You don’t have to show personal financial independence. You can be maxed out on credit cards and even live in government-subsidized housing. Just as long as you round up enough income-earners and pool ­finances to help meet a debt-to-income ratio of up to 50%. And you don’t need good credit. ‘If the borrower’s credit score is less than the minimum credit score required,’ Fannie tells loan underwriters, ‘the lender may develop an acceptable nontraditional credit profile’ that takes into consideration timely payments on electricity bills and car insurance — and even gym dues — in lieu of payments on credit cards and loans.’

‘Under HomeReady, you can even qualify for a ‘cash-out refinance’ of your mortgage, a type of loan that led to over-leveraging and a wave of defaults during the mortgage crisis.’

‘Why would Fannie offer the same kinds of poorly underwritten loans that forced it into bankruptcy? Because HomeReady aligns ‘with our housing goals’ set by Watt, it says in its Home­Ready literature. It’s all part of a government campaign to ease access to home loans for recent Hispanic immigrants — including those living here illegally. In fact, HomeReady caters to illegal immigrants by allowing borrowers to waive Social Security documentation.’

‘Watt, who as a congressman once demanded Freddie Mac back loans for welfare recipients in his North Carolina district, has instructed Fannie and Freddie to come up with ‘alternative credit-scoring models’ to FICO and approve more home buyers. ‘We have the pedal to the metal’ on adopting a new model, Watt said.’

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9573

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 07:43:49

“USDA is targeted at low income people.”

Government housing programs that use low income households as cannon fodder to keep the bubble expanding are heinous.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2016-03-31 09:01:03

‘Underwriting standards eased at a significant number of banks for the three-year period from 2013 through 2015,’ the report said. ‘This trend reflects broad trends similar to those experienced from 2005 through 2007, before the most recent financial crisis.’ Not since 2006, it noted, have lenders taken on so much credit risk, and it says the hazard will continue to grow this year: ‘Examiners expect the level of credit risk to increase over the next 12 months.’

An increase in credit availability does not mean that credit conditions are “similar” to what they were in 2005-2007. It’s like saying that because the temperature rises during the summer in Seattle, that it’s similar to the summer in Phoenix.

CoreLogic has a measure called the Housing Credit Index, which actually allows you to compare credit availability on a relative basis from 2016 to the bubble era.

Here is a recent CoreLogic posting on the data:

http://www.corelogic.com/blog/authors/archana-pradhan/2016/03/credit-availability-trends.aspx#.Vv1G-vkrJhF

At the peak, the HCI reading was 120. The reading today is less than 40, and still well before the 2001-2003 levels.

Yes, that’s one data point.

Tighter credit should also show up in credit scores getting mortgages.

http://www.bkfs.com/Data/DataReports/BKFS_MM_Dec2015_Report.pdf

Credit scores for things like cash-out refinances are still north of 740, vs. bubble era below 700.

OK, a second data point.

What about recent mortgage delinquency rates? Tighter credit should result in recent vintages tracking lower default rates. What do we see?

http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/ir/pdf/quarterly-annual-results/2015/q42015_credit_summary.pdf

See page 18.

A couple of years in, mortgages written in 2005-2007 were already showing signs of default…nothing like that with recent vintages.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m confident that our politicians will find a way to get money into the hands of people who will never be able to pay it back…they just haven’t yet.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 09:44:11

Incorrect.

Credit profiles of borrowers today are far far worse they the were during the previous fraud driven housing market of 2000-2007. 3% down payment mortgages are the majority of mortgage paper written since 2008.

Remember….. 3% down payment mortgages are the very definition of subprime.

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Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 06:36:05

Local Realtors say

Does anyone believe a word a realtor says? Anyone?

Comment by Shekels
2016-03-31 06:50:09

The only truth a local Realtor could ever say is “Guilty, your honor.”

Comment by Sacks of Dong
2016-03-31 16:08:59

Deride the Realtors now while you can for they, along with cockroaches, will inherit the earth once all other forms of life have perished.

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Comment by steadykat
2016-04-01 10:24:30

Yes, I believe Suzanne.

After all……. “she researched this”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20n-cD8ERgs

 
 
 
Comment by Can Bubble
2016-03-31 04:56:44

I know of a Chinese immigrant to Toronto who came here about five years ago. He knows a lot of influential people back in Chins. He makes 80k at a bank and his wife is at home with their two kids.

He just bought a house for 2.3 million.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-31 05:19:02

Sounds legit to me.

 
Comment by octal77
2016-03-31 07:44:34

Of course, you mean 80k per *month*

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2016-03-31 05:09:58

“On Wednesday morning, Katie Yeager, owner/broker of Your Future Address LLC in Overland Park, tried to show a couple three different area homes that had just hit the market. The prospective homebuyers weren’t allowed to tour any of them, however, because the sellers of all three had already accepted offers, Yeager said.”

What a great marketing strategy! Take the marks to three homes that are - oooops - are already sold and then take them to a fourth home that isn’t, that isn’t yet sold.

Bahahahahaha … do ya think there just might be a bit of urgency - panic even - injected into the hearts of the marks?

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 05:31:52

‘a ton of activity and multiple offers on the first day it’s on the market. That’s true for homes up to $300,000, and there’s even $400,000 and $500,000 houses in the right areas that are selling the first day with multiple offers’

Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 06:15:32

Serious question;

Does anyone believe this? Do you?

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2016-03-31 06:34:57

A lot of realtors stage houses with furniture. If I were a realtor I would stage houses with buyers.

Not actual buyers, just people who look like buyers. Have well-dressed couples walking around with tape measures pretending to be interested. Shills.

Of course I wouldn’t pay them for doing this, instead I would maybe feed them a story that they were being auditioned for movie roles and some of the people in the house were actually talent scouts (but they wouldn’t know which people) and those who played their roles the best just might be offered a part in a move.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 06:38:50

Realtards are already paying for open house foot traffic.

What a scam.

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2016-03-31 06:58:55

Oh, and I would charge them a fee.

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Comment by oxide
2016-03-31 07:46:56

When a Realtor/buyer visits a house they leave business cards on the kitchen counter, in case the seller wants to contact them. Then any realtor/buyers who comes later can see how many other buyers are interested in the house. Plant more cards, create more urgency, and you don’t need an open house.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 08:22:05

Well, well…

Overland Park, KS Real Estate and Homes for Sale

1,492 Homes

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Overland-Park_KS

Overland Park, KS Price Reduced Homes for Sale

396 Homes

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Overland-Park_KS/show-price-reduced

Somebody’s a lion.

 
Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 08:55:52

Here you go. Lyon Realtors. And best of all, they’re headquartered in Sacramento, CA.

http://www.golyon.com/

 
 
Comment by Bluto
2016-03-31 11:39:03

This open house goes way beyond having actors bake cookies…

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-open-house-goes-over-the-top-1424969962

“More than 250 guests gathered at a home in Los Angeles’s Pacific Palisades neighborhood last fall. Models swam in the pool, guests attired in all-white drank mojitos and a singer strummed an acoustic guitar. The guest of honor: the 11,000-square-foot New England whitewashed-brick house, which would hit the market days later for $16.95 million.”

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 05:19:13

From the CCT article:

‘Fitch Ratings’ Managing Director Grant Bailey has no doubt that homes here are overvalued and pointed to a fairly recent run-up to describe the current market.’

“The last time the Bay Area experienced this kind of home price growth was during the dot-com era from 1997-2000,” Bailey said. Prices continue to go up in many markets throughout the country, but home prices in the Bay Area have “risen to a level unsupportable by area income,” according to Fitch Ratings which also found that San Francisco home prices “hit an all-time high in third-quarter 2015 and are now 62 percent above their post-recession low in early 2012.”

‘Today, you have a bunch of aspirational house humpers trying to make their money on the edge of a frothy housing market. Flippers are flipping and families are overextending. While the tech sector hits a snag, you have the median-priced house in San Francisco selling for $1.2 million.’

Adam Modzeleski is a real estate professional with Rainbow Funding and Realty, located in Newark for more than 30 years.

When the REIC people start mocking the market it’s getting pretty bad.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-31 05:20:07

Two kinds of people use financial advisors: those who are getting fleeced, and those who are going to get fleeced.

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/03/30/ever-checked-out-your-advisers-disciplinary-record/

 
Comment by Combotechie
2016-03-31 05:22:29

“‘They’ve used USDA financing, which is zero percent down, they got the Maryland mortgage program, $5000 interest free loan to help towards closing costs, and with a little bit of seller contribution, you know, they’ve gotten into a house for basically nothing,’ Bankert said.”

How high of a price can a house rise to if people can get a house for basically nothing?

What a strange question to ask, no? It would be a strange question if the factor that determined affordability was the price, but the question doesn’t seem all that strange when the price has really very little to do with affordability.

But the price does have something to do with equity - everyone’s equity - equity for the buyers and equity for those who have already bought. Raise the going price and - presto! - equity - WEALTH - magically springs into being.

We live in a time filled with financial miracles.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 05:29:36

‘How high of a price can a house rise to if people can get a house for basically nothing’

I don’t know but don’t let jingle see this, he’ll have a fit.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 06:13:56

Infinite leverage and indeterminate prices go hand in hand. It drops right out of the fundamental asset valuation formula that every undergraduate finance student has to learn.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 07:16:00

Perhaps this is obvious, but infinite leverage is the limiting result of pushing interest rates to zero, eliminating down-payment requirements, and abolishing qualification requirements. For good measure, forbearance, bailouts or outright debt forgiveness await those who overpay today, only to soon find themselves drowning in unrepayable debt.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 07:34:12

‘This is especially true in hot spots like California, where subprime-mortgage lenders offering interest-only loans with no FICO-score requirements are cropping up from the ashes of Countrywide Financial, the bankrupt subprime giant.’

There you have it, follow: near-infinite leverage, right up until the point of Ponzi collapse.

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Comment by oxide
2016-03-31 08:06:00

To be fair, he said “into,” which is an important difference. The barrier to entry is nothing, not the house.

How high can the price rise? Probably very high. But if the payments are fully amortized, people will default pretty quickly.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 16:05:32

“We live in a time filled with financial miracles.”

Future problems are in store for those who bought on the presumption that miracles continue indefinitely.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 05:27:09

‘And new units are expected to keep hitting the market even though more supply means landlords are being forced to dial back on rent increases and provide heftier concessions. He said oversupply will only get worse.’

But we must keep building. That’s the answer to high prices.

‘Miami is facing a condo bust—again. Developers have started canceling projects, slashing prices and offering incentives…Many of the forces buffeting the Miami market are also hitting luxury markets in New York, Southern California, Australia and London.’

So the WSJ has picked up on this NY, Miami, California, London thing. Hmmm, I wonder where they got wind of that? Maybe they should add Hong Kong, Dubai, Sydney, Melbourne, etc. Singapore has been in the dumps for years. And India! Nobody seems to care about India, but there’s a lot of people there and their real estate market is a basket case.

China, Canada, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Kenya, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, UAE, Brazil, golly it’s piling up.

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-03-31 09:21:28

‘And new units are expected to keep hitting the market even though more supply means landlords are being forced to dial back on rent increases and provide heftier concessions. He said oversupply will only get worse.’

But we must keep building. That’s the answer to high prices.

Yes, isn’t that precisely what they are saying? More supply is putting more power in the hands of renters/buyers…which is resulting in lower rents/prices.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 09:41:17

Given the fact there are 25 million excess empty and defaulted houses in the US and another 35 million just beginning to empty as boomers die off, there is plenty of supply.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 05:42:52

‘Miami’s Condos Shift to a Buyer’s Market, but Don’t Expect Another 2008 Bloodbath’

What a strange headline. How does expecting have anything to do with a bloodbath? If it’s going to happen, my expectations won’t matter.

‘For more than a year, signs have been pointing toward a sharp downturn in Miami’s condo market, and developers are positioning themselves for the bubble to burst. Carlos Rosso, president of condominium development at Related Group, tells the Wall Street Journal that this time last year, his company was selling an astonishing 100 units a week in Miami. This year, it’s averaging about 20 per week.’

OK, so the developer will make it. But what about those people who were throwing money around and buying 100 units a week? I’ve even read some articles where they were thinking about not closing. And they also were reported to have refinanced their freaking down payments! I bet you weren’t reading the blog that day Wall Street Journal! And if these hundreds of buyers aren’t as strong as the developers think, it might come back to bit them on the butt!

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 05:46:14

‘More than 7,300 new units are in the pipeline, and developers tell WSJ they’re preparing to lower prices and offer more perks to move them.’

Well now that’s just dirty. You are throwing these money launders, I mean Latin Americans, under the bus Mr Related. Why I wouldn’t blame them if they told you to stick this underwater box of air where the sun don’t shine and just try and sue them in Buenos Aires.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Mr. Banker
2016-03-31 05:59:13

“According to a brand new report that was recently released, almost 10 percent of our college graduates believe that Judge Judy is on the Supreme Court…”

Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-03-31 06:37:30

The stupid, it burns.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-31 06:51:44

Higher education is morally and financially bankrupt:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-31/higher-education-morally-financially-bankrupt

“All efforts to create the illusion of academic content are acceptable so long as they are entertaining, and successful participation requires no real effort and no real accountability.

Remove your professor hat for a moment and students will speak frankly. They will tell you that they don’t read because they don’t have to. They can get an A without ever opening a book.

But don’t worry—you won’t go bust because of this failure, not in the modern university. So long as your class is popular and fun, you’ll be favoured by the administration and probably receive a teaching award. This, even though your students will leave your class in worse condition than they entered it, because you will have pandered to their basest inclinations while leaving their real intellectual and moral needs unmet.

There is no clearer example of administrators’ contempt for faculty. But there is also no clearer example of their contempt for students.”

A system that piles debt on students in exchange for a marginal or even zero-return on their investment is morally and financially bankrupt.”

No kidding. But hey, there’s a silver lining to this cloud: You can become a tenured hackademic and blat your brains out on the HBB!

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Comment by snake charmer
2016-03-31 07:36:36

Charles Hugh Smith is always a good read. He’s got his own blog, Of Two Minds.

College is not for everyone. It’s not even for a majority of people; maybe one-quarter of high school graduates should attend, as opposed to the two-thirds who do now. But we’ve made a college degree a required credential because … why, exactly? It’s maturity somebody needs, not necessarily a degree. And how many jobs pay well enough to justify the expense? Fewer all the time.

 
Comment by Puggs
2016-03-31 07:54:02

“College is not for everyone.”

^^True^^

I would add to that 95% of males would rather get some form of hands on experience education for a couple years and then get a job. Sitting in philosophy (or add liberal agenda here) class listening to a prof pontificate for hours is worse than a hot poker in the eye…

Most guys I know like to get things done.

 
Comment by oxide
2016-03-31 08:20:56

Some great info here:
http://www.trade-schools.net/trades/

Go anywhere in the country. Pick a trade school campus, there are some in rural areas where living is cheap. Get a cheap motel room, a job at Target, some loans, and go for it.

 
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-31 08:26:10

Thats what engineering degrees are about.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2016-03-31 10:31:43

I enjoyed my philosophy classes, indeed, nearly all of my liberal arts classes, but that’s just my particular bent. I’m a lot more verbal than I am mechanical or science-oriented, and my engineering skills could never go beyond basic Legos. I liked college, a lot, although I get the distinct feeling that college is different now.

My son is in preschool, but when he gets older I’m going to tell him that, if you learn a trade, and are honest and reliable, you can make a good living. You do not have to be a white-collar professional if you do not want to.

 
Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-31 15:55:45

College is about being able to socialize and get through it as much as the educational aspect. Some cant handle it all.

 
Comment by CalifoH20
2016-03-31 16:40:16

greatest 6 yrs of my life! Super fun! I recommend it just for the fun and women!

 
 
 
Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2016-03-31 08:03:19

If I was in college and someone asked me that question. I would of course say yes to troll the poll.

 
 
Comment by Overbanked
2016-03-31 15:49:03

First, The American Council of Trustees and Alumni is a right-wing organization.

http://www.goacta.org/publications/a_crisis_in_civic_education

(you can only see the questions in the PDF on their website)

Second, nobody knows the integrity of their sample, 1,000 adults, margin of error +/- 3 percentage points for the total population, higher for subgroups…

The Huffington Post attacks the report in a way that I think makes the results more alarming, to wit, more than 36% of college graduates selected someone other than Elena Kagan as a member of the Supreme Court in a multiple choice question, with one of the choices being “Don’t Know/Refused.” (Although one of the questions had an option for “Don’t Know” and an option for “Refused”…)

Likewise, more than 44% of college graduates selected someone other than Joe Biden as being the President of the Senate, multiple choice, “Don’t Know” choice, and neither Mitch McConnell nor Orrin Hatch offered as choices.

IMO these aren’t crucial facts to know, but if you’re a college graduate you sure as hell ought to know to not guess if you don’t know the correct answer.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 05:51:52

‘So feel free to buy that $1.2 million shack in San Francisco with a 30-year $1 million mortgage. I’m sure that startup will be around in 30 years.’

‘Where’s the lane? Self-driving cars confused by shabby U.S. roadways’

‘Volvo’s North American CEO, Lex Kerssemakers, lost his cool as the automaker’s semi-autonomous prototype sporadically refused to drive itself during a press event at the Los Angeles Auto Show. “It can’t find the lane markings!” Kerssemakers griped to Mayor Eric Garcetti, who was at the wheel. “You need to paint the bloody roads here!”

‘Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently called the mundane issue of faded lane markings “crazy,” complaining they confused his semi-autonomous cars.’

Just wait until it starts raining hard Elon.

Meet George Jetson.
His Boy Elroy.
Daughter Judy.
Jane his wife.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 05:58:19

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA! :mrgreen:

Leon Musk the spaceshot dreamboi.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 06:07:45

“It can’t find the lane markings.”

I plan to be reliant on bicycle or rail transport if self-driving cars are ever authorized to hit the freeway.

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-03-31 07:05:35

just drive around here the Hutch Merritt parkway, poorly painted and no overhead lighting, and its deadly in the rain…. the lie in queens everything reflects in the rain headlights from the other direction, the barriers are so low…you get blinded from the 5 opposite lanes

but somehow i managed to keep my safe drivers insurance.

 
 
Comment by GDLipschitz
2016-03-31 06:18:10

Combined with the link up above, it made me ask, how close are we to computer being smarter than humans? Answer: for most humans about 5 years ago.

Comment by palmetto
2016-03-31 06:29:41

Microsoft recently did an AI experiment with its chatbot, Tay. It didn’t go well:

http://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-deletes-racist-genocidal-tweets-from-ai-chatbot-tay-2016-3?r=UK&IR=T

So they took it offline and then tried again:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/30/technology/tay-tweets-microsoft/index.html

BTW, before Tay, there was Max Headroom.

Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-31 06:54:25

“But Microsoft said Tay also had a “vulnerability” that online trolls picked up on pretty quickly.”

A vulnerable mind enters the internet chat space and is quickly trolled into becoming a racist.

Sounds about right.

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Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 08:42:42

EbolaLolaOnTheStrollaCocaColaAmateurTrolla :mrgreen:

 
 
 
 
Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-31 06:44:23

I’m baffled by people who think we won’t have lots of self-driving cars in the near future. How long did it take for cell phones to go from bulky curiosities owned by the very few to tiny pocket computers that pretty much everyone owned? Less than 20 years.

A company like Uber or lyft probably will be the first to introduce self-driving cars on a large scale. I predict this will happen in the next ten years.

BTW- Self-driving cars are already racking up thousands of miles on the roads with far less accidents per mile than human drivers.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 06:54:22

“I’m baffled”

Indeed you are Lola. Indeed you are.

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-03-31 07:10:41

I’m baffled by people who think we’ll have viable transportation infrastructure in the near future.

OTOH, perhaps the self-driving car will spur investment in the repair and replacement of failing transportation infrastructure. So maybe good things will come of it.

They’re excited about self-driving cars here in the Tampa Bay area and have set up some pilot programs. And along with that, FINALLY a ferry service across the bay. There may be hope after all.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 07:13:29

‘I’m baffled by people who think we won’t have lots of self-driving cars in the near future’

That’s an odd thing to say. In the 90’s I lived in a little town that had an electric car company. Stock holders lost everything. During the dotcom thing there was a company which got a $15 million contract to put everything Wal-Mart has for sale online. Up in smoke.

Paper-less office.

I don’t know if these cars will work. I’ve posted a few reasons to have doubts. Like rain or liability or older cars. I also have doubts about why would so many people want to drive a taxi, or have strangers in their house. Maybe it’s just me. The media can report stuff over and over, but dang it, I can’t help but question stuff that doesn’t make sense. Take companies that lose money. It kinda defeats the whole purpose. If a company loses half a billion bucks and the CEO is really impressed with puddle watching, I’m skeptical.

Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-31 07:28:59

Most cars sit unused 90% of the time, quietly depreciating in your garage or parking lot. That’s an incredible inefficiency, but it made sense when taxis were hard to find and expensive to use. Uber has upended how taxis operate, the millenials aren’t interested in driving as “sport”, and self-driving cars are proving themselves safe in real-world conditions every day. Throw in how incredibly convenient a self-driving car would be, I just don’t see how their widespread use is not inevitable.

Considering half the drivers are texting while they drive right now, I look forward to the robots taking over.

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Comment by In Colorado
2016-03-31 08:28:49

Most cars sit unused 90% of the time, quietly depreciating in your garage or parking lot.

Won’t it depreciate faster if it’s used 100% of the time?

Who cares if the car at home depreciates as long as it starts when I turn the key? Cars are still useful long after they have been fully depreciated.

 
Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 08:32:59

Incorrect.

The item is unusable and disposed of after it’s fully depreciated. Either counter the depreciation by throwing more money at it or buy another item(throw more money at it).

It’s the way the world works.

 
Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-31 09:52:16

Won’t it depreciate faster if it’s used 100% of the time?

Not if you don’t own one, but just summon one when needed.

 
Comment by oxide
2016-03-31 09:53:21

Most cars sit unused 90% of the time

So do toilets. Are you going to throw yours out?

 
Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 10:03:14

Only if you decide that paying a plumber $150 to replace the rusty guts and supply hose isn’t worth the effort when a new $hitpot is $125.

I’m guessing you paid somewhere around $5k for a $150 toilet so you might want to pay the plumber to repair it.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 10:09:58

I had to replace a toilet tank recently. I went to the plumbing supply place. Man you would have thought I was asking for a part on the space shuttle. Went to home depot and got one for 30 bucks. Probably cost 5 to make it down in Ol’ Mehico.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 10:28:04

’sit unused 90% of the time…So do toilets’

So 10% in use? More fiber.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-03-31 10:34:00

Not if you don’t own one, but just summon one when needed.

I think that works OK if you live in a high density area close to your destination. If you have the typical long distance work commute those uber rides can become unafforadable fast, even with a self driving car.

 
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-31 15:12:28

The biggest expense in a high density area is parking. In SF it was about $150/month at home and the same at work. Add that to the regular costs of a car, and Uber pencils out really nice. There are a bunch of other rental options for weekend trips.

It will roll out like internet…. first in the city centers, and gradually fade in areas where things are farther apart. I suspect the driving habits of the robot cars will make city driving completely insufferable. I saw the mercedes demo making it’s way through the tenderloin, and it drove like a codger that couldn’t see over the wheel.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 23:03:35

“So do toilets. Are you going to throw yours out?”

Toilets depreciate far more slowly and offer better value than cars do.

 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2016-03-31 07:42:00

“Take companies that lose money. It kinda defeats the whole purpose.” LOL.

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Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2016-03-31 09:57:57

‘I don’t know if these cars will work. I’ve posted a few reasons to have doubts. Like rain or liability or older cars. I also have doubts about why would so many people want to drive a taxi, or have strangers in their house. Maybe it’s just me. ‘

I’d rather see more public transportation -ie- buses and trains. As far as the sharing economy goes, I think part of it is people are hard up for money.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 10:04:34

Around here the buses are often empty or near so. In the summer I see a few people standing in the 110 degree sun waiting for them.

 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-03-31 11:46:02

public trans is 75% taxpayer subsidized

 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2016-03-31 18:13:23

‘Around here the buses are often empty or near so. In the summer I see a few people standing in the 110 degree sun waiting for them.’

Is that Flagstaff or Phoenix or…?

Perhaps the self-driving cars will be on-demand just like Uber. I could see that. Wonder if the market will price it so a person could commute to work cheap enough. Me, 75% of my car time use is for work commute.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 18:46:22

North and west of Phoenix. There are cabs everywhere. I have come to the conclusion the drivers here are the worst I’ve experienced. Second highest red-light running fatalities in the US.

 
 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2016-03-31 07:40:40

What’s likely to happen is that the people who self-driving cars put out of work are going to be added to the pile of social tinder that we are intent on laying around ourselves.

Well-armed Luddites.

Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-31 07:46:42

Yep. And Uber has become the fall-back job for many.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 07:49:23

Bad analogy. Cell phones normally can’t kill people, unless used while driving.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 07:52:15

“Self-driving cars are already racking up thousands of miles on the roads with far less accidents per mile than human drivers.”

Evidence, please?

Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-31 08:19:57

“Google’s cars have driven more than 1.3 million miles since 2009. They can recognize hand signals from traffic officers and “think” at speeds no human can match. As of January, they had been involved in 17 crashes, all caused by human error. Google has previously predicted they’ll be road-ready by 2020.”

http://www.wired.com/2016/02/googles-self-driving-car-may-caused-first-crash/http://www.wired.com/2016/02/googles-self-driving-car-may-caused-first-crash/

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Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 08:34:37

Lola….. “self-driving” cars are a failure. Just like solar energy.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-03-31 09:09:03

I suspect that these numbers are based on ideal driving conditions. What happens when they aren’t ideal? Will the cars just stop?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 15:53:48

“I suspect that these numbers are based on ideal driving conditions.”

That’s the point! How many of the test miles were in real driving conditions, replete with idiot drivers and faded lane markings?

 
 
 
 
Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2016-03-31 08:05:13

You could paint the lanes on the roadway off the cliff like Wile E Coyote and all the traffic would roll off the cliff one by one into a giant flame ball in the canyon below.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-03-31 08:10:58

It can’t find the lane markings.

So how are these cars supposed to work in the snow?

Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 08:29:25

They don’t.

 
Comment by bink
2016-03-31 08:35:09

Or when the road is being milled/paved. Or when temporary roadwork or a wreck diverts traffic into the oncoming lanes. Or potholes. Or roadkill. Or sand. Or leaves. Or backed up storm drains.

Comment by redmondjp
2016-03-31 10:59:24

Yes, exactly. These are the types of situations where the autonomous cars can fail in spectacular fashion (usually doing a full-panic stop, causing the driver behind to rear-end it).

All it takes is one contractor who cones off one lane while they are doing some work along the road, and the Google car has no clue that the lane ahead is blocked until its sensors detect a cone a few feet in front of the bumper.

Stop comparing this to cell phones! This problem is WAY harder to solve and has far more life-threatening consequences than a dropped phone call.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-31 11:15:33

I think the problem can be solved by putting steel rails in the road and set the car on those rails.

Not sure what to call this idea…

 
Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 11:55:50

^ :mrgreen:

 
 
 
Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-31 09:56:59

How clunky and ridiculous was the first cell phone?

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 16:01:55

Dunno, but I’d guess nobody died as a result of the clunkiness and ridiculousness.

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Comment by rj chicago
2016-03-31 08:29:26

I have been in places in my life where I could not find the lane markings either - and it wasn’t because of lack of paint on the road.
Yikes.

Comment by drumminj
2016-03-31 15:10:13

See I-405 through Bellevue, WA as a great example.

Holy crap it’s impossible to track your lane — all kinds of markings, covered up markings, reflectors, etc.

Comment by redmondjp
2016-03-31 15:49:40

I drive it twice a day! It’s a toss-up as to whether that is the worst section of 405, or the S-curves in Renton (which I also slog through).

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Comment by Neuromance
2016-03-31 15:45:29

A reality check on self driving cars: Google’s program lead says they can be here in 3 years for some, 30 for others. The latter is for bad weather, off-road driving, bad-road driving.

Cars today and soon will more and more idiot proof features, like automatic braking, lane-keeping, blind spot warning indicators and the like. That’s due to radar and relatively simple vision systems and increasing processing power. But processing that vision is still quite resource intensive. If they could fill up a car with a supercomputer, that would likely be autonomous, but fitting the computer into a small section of the car - we’re not there yet.

In 2011, soon after Google first told the world about the robocars it had secretly been developing, it promised that the vehicles would be able to “drive anywhere a car can legally drive.” Its timeframe for delivering the technology was generally understood to be in the neighborhood of five years. For example, in a 2014 Wall Street Journal article, project director Chris Urmson was quoted as saying he was hoping “to field a fully autonomous car” by the end of the decade.

Not only might it take much longer to arrive than the company has ever indicated—as long as 30 years, said Urmson—but the early commercial versions might well be limited to certain geographies and weather conditions. Self-driving cars are much easier to engineer for sunny weather and wide-open roads, and Urmson suggested the cars might be sold for those markets first.

Urmson put it this way in his speech. “How quickly can we get this into people’s hands? If you read the papers, you see maybe it’s three years, maybe it’s thirty years. And I am here to tell you that honestly, it’s a bit of both.”

http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/google-selfdriving-car-will-be-ready-soon-for-some-in-decades-for-others

 
Comment by Eddie89
2016-04-01 12:58:03

Yeah, same thing here in San Diego! Roads SUCK! Pavement markings!? What markings!? And potholes, everywhere!!!

 
 
Comment by Shekels
2016-03-31 06:07:34

Local NPR hates TABOR.

The state legislature has balanced the budget via the unconstitutional withholding of TABOR refunds to Colorado taxpayers. The Democrat Party in the legislature are pushing a bill to block TABOR refunds for the next few years.

NPR aired the same segment at least twice yesterday and this morning bashing TABOR.

Comment by GDLipschitz
2016-03-31 06:21:55

Seems like they “fixed the glitch”. Laws mean nothing.

Comment by Shekels
2016-03-31 06:33:43

I pay alot of state income taxes, those are my Shekels these crooks are stealing.

Comment by Oddfellow
2016-03-31 07:00:51

TABOR refunds

Looks like it wold be about 20 shekels per person. That’s about 1 gourmet burger and a microbrew.

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Comment by Shekels
2016-03-31 07:16:04

those are my Shekels

My Shekels, not your Shekels. Ben Jones is trying to clean up the tone of this place, so you should spare us of the anti-semitism.

 
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-03-31 08:15:07

My understanding is that there wasn’t a TABOR surplus to begin with, and that they had to cut spending as well.

Also, IIRC, the state Senate is GOP controlled, so if the assembly is trying to steal the TABOR refund, they Senate would have to go along with the scam, and TABOR is sacrosanct for the state GOP.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 06:10:56

‘There’s hardly any inventory,’ said Jeff Hill, president-elect of the Kansas City Regional Association of Realtors. ‘So a house that looks good and is priced reasonably is going to have a ton of activity and multiple offers on the first day it’s on the market. That’s true for homes up to $300,000, and there’s even $400,000 and $500,000 houses in the right areas that are selling the first day with multiple offers.’

Kansas City prices have become as frothy as California was in the pre-2008 period.

No bubble this time…

 
Comment by GDLipschitz
2016-03-31 06:23:50

Lolas gotta be dead, he’d be commenting on Brazil, Kansas City, and for sure the presidential race.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 06:25:25

Up there lies Lola

Comment by GDLipschitz
2016-03-31 07:40:28

Or maybe he’s still here under his other screen name?

Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 07:44:44

Anything is possible with proxies.

Right Lola? :mrgreen:

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-03-31 06:24:19

Kansas City, MO Housing Market Implodes; Prices Collapse 27% As Housing Demand Craters To 20 Year Lows

http://www.movoto.com/kansas-city-mo/market-trends/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 06:30:12

‘SandRidge Energy Inc confirmed on Wednesday it has hired advisers to evaluate options including a bankruptcy filing, in what could be the most high-profile reorganization yet in U.S. shale oil industry. Oklahoma City-based SandRidge, which reported a loss on Tuesday after delaying the filing, had about $3.63 billion in total debt as of Dec. 31.’

‘Its shares now trade at around 10 cents each. In 2008, they were worth more than $60 each.’

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2016-03-31 12:29:09

Buy the dip?

Comment by MW
2016-03-31 16:16:12

LOL

 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-03-31 06:34:49

San Francisco, CA Housing Market Craters; Prices Plunge 7% YoY As Housing Inventory Balloons

http://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca/home-values/

 
Comment by Shekels
2016-03-31 06:39:46

Current banner ad on HBB headlined “rents change daily” for Costar Market Analytics:

http://costarmarketanalytics.com/?utm_campaign=GDN_PROS&utm_source=N9515.134426GOOGLEDISPLAYNETWO2&utm_medium=display&gclid=CNSZ0rKF68sCFZFcfgodOdgKxg

When I worked as a property accountant for Archstone we used MRI (www.mrisoftware.com). Rents do change daily, and in the case of Denver now they change downward.

Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2016-03-31 08:08:03

Did you talk to the competition in your market directly and often to share upcoming sales, rent changes and specials? A friend told me she was instructed to do this when she worked for a large apartment complex.

 
 
Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 06:40:54

Would you like lose 75% of your career income? Buy a house.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2016-03-31 06:45:21

I’m getting a security alert on this site.

Certificate does not match name of site?

Certificate issued to *.btrll.com by RapidSSL SHA256 CA-G4

Comment by bink
2016-03-31 08:38:25

The SSL version of the site doesn’t have a valid certificate.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-03-31 07:01:32

‘I was right, the housing recovery was a sham’: The Guardian’s Heidi Moore

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/i-was-right–the-housing-recovery-was-a-sham–guardian-s-heidi-moore-191918931.html

“Meanwhile, demand for home loans have hit a 14-year low in the first quarter.”* (Demand has subsequently fallen to 20 year lows since this article)

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-03-31 07:07:36

Seattle, WA Real Estate and Homes for Sale-6,401 properties found

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Seattle_WA/radius-20

Seattle, WA Real Estate and Homes Price Reduced- 1,514 properties found

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Seattle_WA/shw-pr/radius-20

24% of Seattle selllers reduced their price at least once

 
Comment by Shekels
2016-03-31 07:10:56

Article I mentioned recently about rich white yuppies pushing black and Latino gangs into each others’ turf in Northeast Denver:

“All of the people who bought these $450,000 houses are getting freaked out,” she said of the area’s gentrification.

The Rev. Leon Kelly, a gang activist who has worked in the city for decades, attributes the problems to a racial shift and to rising home prices in the neighborhoods. Factions that traditionally were split by distance are being pushed into the same blocks.

“Now, with these changes in demographics, two gangs are going to war,” he said.

Kelly pointed to the immigration of Latinos into the mostly black Cole, Park Hill and Five Points neighborhoods as one of the causes of the friction. He said the city’s Park Hill Bloods and East Side Crips — which have been locked in years of bloody battle — each feel like its territory is being invaded.

Neighbors talk about the factions getting pushed shoulder to shoulder, causing greater friction.

“The whites are demanding that police do something,” Kelly said. “That adds pressure and stress.”

http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_28037646/denver-surging-gang-violence-neighborhood-alert

Comment by In Colorado
2016-03-31 08:17:14

“The whites are demanding that police do something,” Kelly said. “That adds pressure and stress.”

It must be affecting the neighborhood Walk Score.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-31 08:29:51

The “run like hell” score is probably really good though.

 
Comment by oxide
2016-03-31 13:42:03

The whites are also paying property taxes on $450K housing. Can’t say I blame them for wanting something in return.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 15:22:09

Well Donk that’s what you get when you pay too much for a depreciating asset. Nothing.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 07:22:13

‘The money flooding the Bay Area isn’t built on speculation like the last boom. These are people with real money, with real incomes. They have enough money to live in whatever cities and neighborhoods they want, so if there’s not enough high-end housing, they’ll just gentrify lower-income neighborhoods.’

That sounds exactly like what bubble-blind San Diegans were saying in the pre-2007 period. Thornberg has got the NAR religion…

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-31 09:11:38

People with money…

If they had money, they’d have paid cash.

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-03-31 09:29:12

Not necessarily.

I know people with the money who see the mortgage rates today as a gift, and they have mortgages because it is cheap, tax efficient leverage for their financial world.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 09:38:04

Incorrect.

People with money don’t sign up for mortgages or buy rapidly depreciating assets like houses. They lease them.

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Comment by Puggs
2016-03-31 10:08:12

The person with the highest credit score has paid the most interest to the bank.

NOT a winning combo.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 15:56:44

“…mortgage rates today as a gift,…”

It will be interesting to learn how these same people feel about tomorrow’s normalized, much-higher mortgage rates, which are bound to create a large amount of shrinkage in purchase demand and valuations.

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Comment by CHE
2016-03-31 12:31:08

I attended an event put on by my credit union about the possible housing bubble back in 2006 (after I had already sold my home in 2005 thanks to HBB!)

Thornberg tore apart the swarmy real estate shill up on stage. WHAT HAPPENED!!?!??!!

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 12:35:22

I dunno, but I bet it had something to do with how he makes money.

 
 
 
Comment by Shekels
2016-03-31 07:26:22

Denver Post reluctantly admits that Denver is a bubble market:

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_29705455/denvers-red-hot-housing-market-may-be-cooling

“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 07:29:06

“Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at UC Berkeley, said, ‘The high-tech boom we have is unsustainable. Job growth is unsustainable. There will be, in the next three years, a correction. These unicorns (private companies valued at more than $1 billion) will have to cut jobs. That will have by far the most important impact’ on the housing market. The only question, he said, ‘is whether it’s a minor decline or something more substantial.’”

This is one of those rare economists who give a straight up assessment without the sugar coating. I once heard him speak to his humble origins in life, which may help explain his unvarnished descriptions of the housing outlook.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2016-03-31 12:58:55

Have to admit, I’m hoping for “more substantial.”

Again, how many “we are a startup that helps online B2B transactions become more seamless and efficient” do we really need? In Portland we have many with HQ down in the Bay Area.

Comment by redmondjp
2016-03-31 15:51:55

We have as many as we need to absorb all of the free Fed dollars funneled through the Venture Capital firms. It’s the evil genius of central banking at work!

 
 
 
Comment by Puggs
2016-03-31 07:55:56

How does one deal with a braggadocious blow hard?

Ignore them.

 
Comment by LuckyOz
2016-03-31 08:00:05

As a soon to be former investor in Denver, that market has just gone crazy. Somehow the value of downtown condos rose 60%-80%, yet rents have risen 10-15% over the same time period (since rents track income).

No way that is sustainable. Apparently the local laws around affordable housing are restricting new condos going up, whereas new apartments are being built like crazy. This leads to an equilibrium in rentals, and an artificial bubble in condos.

Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 08:27:35

Are you sure?

Denver, CO Housing Market Implodes; Prices Crater 6%YoY

http://www.zillow.com/denver-co-80203/home-values/

 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2016-03-31 10:40:51

Denver blows my mind. How many people live in the metropolitan area? The market capitalization of real estate there must be huge. In a related article:
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/real_deals/2016/03/rockies-real-estate-is-no-steal.html

Comment by Shekels
2016-03-31 11:02:35

It was alot nicer place to live during the recession.

 
 
 
Comment by rj chicago
2016-03-31 08:23:53

SHARPTON: I FEAR FOR THE STREETS AFTER OBAMA…

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/03/al-sharpton-civil-rights-politics

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-03-31 08:36:35

Sarasota, FL Housing Market Caves; Prices Crater 16% YoY As Housing Demand Plummets To 20 Year Low

http://www.movoto.com/sarasota-fl/market-trends/

 
Comment by rj chicago
2016-03-31 08:37:30

From Jesse’s Cafe Amercain this morning…..

“Pity the nation whose people are sheep,
and whose shepherds mislead them.
Pity the nation whose leaders are liars, whose sages are silenced,
and whose bigots haunt the airwaves.
Pity the nation that raises not its voice,
except to praise conquerors and acclaim the bully as hero
and aims to rule the world with force and by torture.
Pity the nation that knows no other language but its own
and no other culture but its own.
Pity the nation whose breath is money
and sleeps the sleep of the too well fed.
Pity the nation — oh, pity the people who allow their rights to erode
and their freedoms to be washed away.
My country, tears of thee, sweet land of liberty.”

Lawrence Ferlinghetti

 
Comment by rj chicago
2016-03-31 08:38:42

And for your morning listening pleasure….
Well worth a listen….

https://musicmp3.ru/artist_porcupine-tree__album_lightbulb-sun.html#.Vv07q5wrIdU

 
Comment by rj chicago
2016-03-31 08:44:38

Callin g Mr. Banker - Yo head may be on the chopping block - BWAAAHAHAHA

http://www.businessinsider.com/bank-layoffs-are-coming-2016-3

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-03-31 09:04:33

Vienna, VA Housing Market Craters; Prices Plunge 6% YoY As Declines Appear Across DC Metro Area

http://www.zillow.com/vienna-va/home-values/

 
Comment by Puggs
2016-03-31 09:07:06

‘There’s hardly any inventory,’ said Jeff Hill, president-elect of the Kansas City Regional Association of Realtors. ‘So a house that looks good and is priced reasonably is going to have a ton of activity and multiple offers on the first day it’s on the market. That’s true for homes up to $300,000, and there’s even $400,000 and $500,000 houses in the right areas that are selling the first day with multiple offers.’”

Riiiiiiiight, no bubble here at all. It’s interesting too because I don’t think housing mania visited this region first time around. Same song just new location…

Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 09:34:24

Would one of our resident Realtors please post the addendum to this script issued to regional offices by NAR headquarters? It would certainly help our efforts in gaurding the public.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2016-03-31 10:16:03

And it’s this nasty *without* all of the crazy subprime lending.

We are told by others that there *can’t* be a bubble because there isn’t crazy lending this time. Uh-oh.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-03-31 10:30:28

‘I don’t think housing mania visited this region first time around’

Overland Park had $500,000 houses before. Downtown Kansas City had expensive condos too.

 
 
Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 09:09:57

Donkey Realtors. Imagine that.

http://goo.gl/idbLVZ

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-03-31 09:20:06

“Realtor Arrested For Allegedly Pocketing Deposits On Apartments”

http://gothamist.com/2016/03/30/epic_realty_scam.php

Comment by redmondjp
2016-03-31 15:54:06

That’s nothing, our state’s auditor is currently in federal court defending himself against stealing a bunch of homebuyers’ money:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/mar/31/key-witness-testifies-in-trial-of-indicted-state-a/

 
 
Comment by Muggy
2016-03-31 14:18:46

Appraisal in…
Underwriting in progress…

We’re looking into moving up the closing date by three weeks.

Forward

Comment by phony scandals
2016-03-31 17:16:03

Good for you.

I hope it all goes well.

Comment by Muggy
2016-03-31 18:00:47

Thank you again for the help. I appreciate it.

 
 
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-31 22:00:03

Don’t fear the reaper…

 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-03-31 17:19:11

Tough day.

I just took 4 Advil because I pulled something in my white privilege.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-03-31 22:41:46

If you keep playing with that you’re gonna go blind.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 23:31:13

“I pulled something…”

Ouch!

 
 
Comment by Shekels
2016-03-31 18:46:53

the Kinks — Afternoon Tea:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVUxUvyfzFg

 
Comment by Shekels
2016-03-31 19:10:32

Neil Young — A Man Needs A Maid:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bORW_YEmHwY

 
Comment by Jake
2016-03-31 19:34:23

crushing.housing.losses.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-03-31 23:34:19

Mrs. Watanabe needs mo’ stimulus!

 
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