April 15, 2016

When Investors Say Stop

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “As they battle it for a limited number of homes and condos for sale, some buyers are not only putting in sky-high bids, they are also losing perspective and their heads, notes Sam Schneiderman, president of the Massachusetts Association of Buyer Agents. ‘The real challenge in his market is that some of these buyers are either encouraged or decide to just throw all caution to the wind and they make crazy offers,’ Schneiderman said. ‘We just can’t coach our buyers into making crazy offers with no mortgage and no inspection contingencies.’”

“Some buyers are even waiving mortgage contingencies when they don’t have nearly the cash to follow through and buy the condo or home in question if their loan falls through, notes Neda Vander Stoep of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage’s Back Bay office. At the very least, they are putting their purchase and sales deposit at risk. ‘Many buyers are unfortunately feeling pressed to make some very tough and risky decisions when submitting offers,’ Vander Stoep notes.”

“The Miami real estate slowdown is becoming a meltdown — with the most expensive areas getting hit hardest. The total number of sales in the area also fell during the period, dropping 21.1 percent to 810 properties. Inventory surged nearly 33 percent, and there is now a 21.5-month supply of properties. Prices for the top 10 percent of condos fell by 14.5 percent, to an average sale price of $3.13 million. Condos in the hyper-exclusive community of Bal Harbour saw the average sale price fall 38 percent over the year, to $1.02 million. The number of sales there dropped 32 percent, to 30.”

“‘The high end is softer than the broader market right now,’ said Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of Miller Samuel. ‘We are coming off this unusually strong period for the high end between 2011 and 2014 and now we’re seeing normalization of that segment.’”

“The country’s hottest housing market might finally be cooling off. Home prices in San Francisco declined last month for the first time in four years, according to real estate brokerage Redfin. Sales also took a hit, sinking 22% in March — which normally marks the start of the busy home-buying season. ‘We might be in a market that will continue to contract,’ said Nela Richardson, Redfin’s chief economist. ‘When it looks like a market is contracting and getting smaller, especially with home sales being down 22% year over year — that is big number and is worrisome.’”

“After a big dip in February, Downtown Seattle condominium prices were unchanged from the previous month, remaining $786 per square foot. Prices peaked at $853 per square foot set in January but have fallen off since. The average resale price per square foot decreased by 6 percent in March to $666 per square foot, but remains 17 percent higher compared to the same month one year ago.”

“Vermont’s governor, attorney general and state financial regulators detailed a complex investment fraud scheme they said was carried out by a pair of real estate developers, one of whom is accused of using investors’ money to pay his personal taxes and to purchase a luxury condo in New York City. ‘This is what we allege fraud looks like,’ Susan Donegan, Vermont’s top financial regulator, said, pointing to a chart resembling a bowl of spaghetti to illustrate Donegan’s accusation that the developers funneled money between various accounts. Donegan described a complex, ‘Ponzi-like’ scheme starting in 2008.”

“According to court papers, the pair took in some $350-million from foreign investors through the federal job-creation incentive program known as EB-5. It enables foreign investors to get on a path toward legal, permanent U.S. residency. Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vermont said in a statement, ‘I’m shocked and saddened by what state and federal investigators have found. I am also aware that hundreds of investors who believed in these projects now do not know if they will see their money or any immigration benefits. It is a terrible situation all around.’”

“The era of mercurial Maple Leafs’ player Phil Kessel is truly over in Toronto. The right winger’s luxury College Park condo has sold for $3.325 million, $565,000 below the asking price. Kessel won’t see much profit from the Toronto property he bought for $3.150 million in Oct. 2009, the year he joined the Maple Leafs. The condo was first listed last July when Kessel was traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Initially it was priced at $4.1 million and then relisted at a lower $3.890 million. ‘This category of real estate can take up to a year to sell,’ said listing agent Geoffrey Fulton.”

“Sydney inner-city apartment prices are starting to mirror price falls in central Melbourne, by falling as much as 19 per cent in the last three months of 2015 in some areas, a report by global real estate group JLL has shown. Suburbs up to 10 kilometres from the CBD – such as Rosebery, Potts Point – and the CBD itself reported extensive price falls between the third and fourth quarters of 2015, JLL said. Prices of new apartments and re-sold apartments in Rosebery have fallen by up to 19 per cent, 12 per cent in the CBD.”

“Price changes should not be perceived as a crash but a correction, Real Estate Institute NSW president John Cunningham said. ‘When you have a lot of new units in the market, and investors say stop, discounting will occur on these units. It’s a correction, without a doubt.’”

“Remember when the Pattaya real estate development scene was taking off like a rocket? By 2006 prices on land and condos had already doubled and it would triple and in some cases quadruple in the coming few years. Those were the days and that was what started everything that we see around us today: a huge oversupply of condo units and abandoned development sites.”

“Yes, a good number of developers just didn’t put the brakes on in time and found themselves with too many unsold units and very few buyers in sight. So while we are disposing of our available supply of condominiums, let’s take a little stroll down memory lane and look back at the Pattaya property market of a decade ago.”

“Pattaya Properties had already sold 75 Ocean One Tower units—12 percent of the 626 apartments–before they even had their first press release or had driven one piling into the ground. They sold 40 units in December of 2005 at 85,000 baht per square meter, 20 units from February to March at 90,000 baht psm, and in April they sold 15 units at 100,000 baht psm.”

“If that is not ballistic enough for you: during their recent press launch in Hong Kong, Suttie announced that Ocean One Tower units would start selling at 120,000 baht per square meter when construction started in August 2006. Now that’s an over 40 percent increase in less than eight months. That’s ballistic!”

“Unfortunately ballistic just wasn’t fast enough as Ocean One Tower never got off the ground. Looking back 10 years at the Pattaya real estate development scene just makes one realize that we have done it once again a decade later.”




RSS feed

181 Comments »

Comment by taxpayers
2016-04-15 03:48:54

21 months is almost 4x normal supply

Ouch

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 05:50:04

‘The total number of sales in the area also fell during the period, dropping 21.1 percent to 810 properties. Inventory surged nearly 33 percent, and there is now a 21.5-month supply of properties. That pileup means homes are taking longer to sell, with the number of days on market nearly doubling from 53 to 97 days year over year.’

21 months, 97 days.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 03:50:26

‘New York City’s largest public pension is exiting all hedge fund investments in the latest sign that the $4 trillion public pension sector is losing patience with these often secretive portfolios at a time of poor performance and high fees.’

‘The move by the fund, which had $51.2 billion in assets as of Jan. 31, follows a similar actions by the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (Calpers), the nation’s largest public pension fund, and public pensions in Illinois.’

“Hedges have underperformed, costing us millions,” New York City’s Public Advocate Letitia James told board members in prepared remarks. “Let them sell their summer homes and jets, and return those fees to their investors.”

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-15 06:02:14

“Hedges have underperformed, costing us millions,” New York City’s Public Advocate Letitia James told board members in prepared remarks. “Let them sell their summer homes and jets, and return those fees to their investors.”

Clearly, lady, you don’t understand the nature of crony capitalism.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 06:17:44

From last Fridays post:

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-08

Danielle DiMartino Booth makes an interesting point in the last link:

‘The movement between regions will be catalyzed by demographics, according to the JLL study, which notes there will be more people over the age of 55 by 2050 than there were inhabitants on earth in 1950.’

“This demographic impact will have a profound effect on real estate investment strategies with the amount of private equity capital targeting direct real estate set to increase by over 500 percent, much of it driven by increasing institutional allocations looking at higher yielding opportunities.”

‘Did you notice something implicit in JLL’s argument? It would seem lower for longer will remain the mantra for the foreseeable future, which suggests frothier markets and subpar growth will continue. The most interesting tidbit comes down to who will be doing the investing, that is private equity.’

‘As it were, private equity “dry powder” directed specifically to real estate investments rang in the New Year at record levels. There is now $231 billion in dry powder available just for properties in the United States after $107 billion was raised in 2015.’

‘For being six years into a recovery in commercial real estate, investors certainly remain enthusiastic, especially public pensions. Pensions have allocated some $207 billion to private equity funds since late 2012. Increasingly, allocations have targeted real estate funds with March of this year providing a perfect example of the merriment surrounding this asset class. Here’s a wee sampling with special notations if the real estate fund is of a particular bent:

Texas Teachers: $500 million
State of Oregon’s Pension: $300 million
Pennsylvania Public School Employers: $307 million
Ohio Workers Compensation Bureau: $125 million
State of Minnesota’s Pension: $100 million (distressed); $100 million (opportunistic)
State of Maine Pension: $50 million
State of New Jersey: $200 million (commercial)
State of Kansas: $50 million
Texas Municipal: $375 million

“Pensions’ chronic underfunding has prompted them to stretch to achieve unrealistic return targets,” New Albion Partners’ Brian Reynolds explained. Reynolds has been keeping a running tally of these allocations and is quick to point out that leverage is often needed to hit the bogeys, which are 7.5 percent or more. Bear that in mind when you consider the money being shoveled into these funds.’

‘It really comes down to size, that is, of the pension system. In the early 1980s, pension liabilities amounted to about 50 percent of gross domestic product (GDP); today they are 100 percent of GDP. “Because of their growth, their investment flows have led to asset bubbles that have generated permanent losses,” Reynolds added.’

‘Pensions flocked to hedge funds but that strategy blew up after Long Term Asset Management nearly took down the financial system. This strategy was followed by wholesale herding into commodities, which we all know ended is disaster.’

‘The catch is the rate-of-return bogeys have barely budged despite Baby Boomers moving increasingly closer to retirement suggesting some risk should be taken off the table. (Rather than keeping you in suspense, it’s nearly an impossible feat to lower return targets. Less in assumed returns means states and municipalities have to pony up more money they don’t happen to have on hand. The State of Connecticut has reached the point where it is now taking a stab at taxing Yale’s endowment in a desperate attempt to top off its underfunded pensions.)’

‘No matter how you slice it, most public pensions face a dire set of circumstances, which begs the question: Just what are they to do?’

‘Reynolds’ reply: “They have turned to the last remaining asset class with high expected rates of return – commercial real estate. It’s as simple as that.”

‘Perhaps pensioners should begin praying the JLL report pans out. With commercial real estate prices declining in January for the first time since 2010, the latest data available, and investors balking at rich valuations, it just might take a miracle to keep profitable prospects alive.’

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9602

Comment by Combotechie
2016-04-15 06:44:05

“Rather than keeping you in suspense, it’s nearly an impossible feat to lower return targets.”

“return targets” = pretend numbers

“Less in assumed returns means states and municipalities have to pony up more money they don’t happen to have on hand.”

Sounds a wee bit … deflationary.

“The State of Connecticut has reached the point where it is now taking a stab at taxing Yale’s endowment in a desperate attempt to top off its underfunded pensions.”

So if they succeed then their underfunding problem will then be solved? Dream on.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by aNYCdj
2016-04-15 07:08:14

combo still goes back to actuaries…they screwed up big time, you cant work for 20-25-30 years and get money for 40.

we need to say you get full retirement benefits if you are fully retired otherwise you will get it at 65 or70. most of the CT deficit is pensions payouts,

they are raising state college tuition 30% over 4 years plus this

http://fox61.com/2016/04/14/layoffs-begin-at-connecticuts-judicial-branch-courts/

 
Comment by Combotechie
2016-04-15 07:57:48

“combo still goes back to actuaries…they screwed up big time, you cant work for 20-25-30 years and get money for 40.”

Do you mean the math sucks ? Who could have ever have thought that?

 
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-04-15 08:48:12

” nearly an impossible feat to lower return targets.”

Actual returns, however, take care of lowering themselves.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-04-15 10:10:03

you cant work for 20-25-30 years and get money for 40.

Sure you can! It’s just a question of how much you put in during those working years, and how much you take out in retirement. Too little of the former, and too much of the latter is the real problem.

 
Comment by Bluto
2016-04-15 10:27:37

Yep, you certainly can some places, and nearly full pay at that for “public safety” jobs in many California counties…the basic formula is 3% X years of service at age 50, so even without playing games to get more that is 90%. Many baby boomers will see 80 or even 90 so no way this can work in the long run. By way of contrast I retired from a Fortune 100 company 3 years ago and the pension after 30 years amounted to about 30% of pay (but I cashed it out instead).
In other pension news the Central States Pension fund is attempting to make serious cuts in benefits (like 60% for some) and the PBGC is unwilling to cover the fund failure because doing so would render it bankrupt too.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/15/us/politics/retirees-rally-at-the-capitol-protesting-pension-cuts.html?_r=0

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-04-15 12:01:04

the PBGC is unwilling to cover the fund failure because doing so would render it bankrupt too.

The PBGC normally handles this by cramming-down the pension liabilities to align more closely with the fund. A friend of mine, a pilot, had his union-negotiated pension chopped down to twenty-something percent of what had been promised. Luckily, he was still a long ways from retirement…

 
 
Comment by rj chicago
2016-04-15 08:36:33

The use of the word ‘bogey’ is rather unsettling - I think it a military term for a soon to be shot down aircraft or missle?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-04-15 08:05:51

these admins get 100’s of thousands to beg info from others
they’re not cutting themselves o0ut of a dime

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-04-15 04:57:32

Miami Beach, FL Housing Market Implodes; Prices Crater 13% YoY On Global Housing Market Crash

http://www.zillow.com/miami-beach-fl/home-values/

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-04-15 05:00:49

“Donegan described a complex, ‘Ponzi-like’ scheme starting in 2008.”

2008 is when parties and players doubled down on the housing wreck with sketchy appraisals and financing and accelerated every year since.

It’s global now.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-15 05:12:04

The sheeple of the EU are finally, belatedly, waking up to the fact that the current EU system does not represent the interests of the 99%.

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/04/14/eu-breakup-brexit-fears-so-bad-even-eurocrats-worry/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-15 05:21:07
Comment by Apartment 401
2016-04-15 05:43:56

Print edition of yesterday’s WSJ says that beards are over. Over.

Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 05:54:59

I had no idea Lola was a redhead.

Comment by muhFeelins
2016-04-15 06:32:58

What does it matter what color a winos beard is?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by rms
2016-04-15 06:49:58

“…beards are over.”

Ditto for bearded clams; long live the shaved cooter.

Comment by muhFeelins
2016-04-15 07:29:07

Is this a fair question to ask almost 25 years after boxers or briefs?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-04-15 19:01:52

Commando, baybee!

 
 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-04-15 06:34:56

College Savings with Fairy Dadmother - Chase - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXF03slRxfY - 233k - Cached - Similar pages
Apr 4, 2016 .

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2016-04-15 05:54:01

Don’t rent your house to Johnny Manziel, LOLZ.

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-04-15 09:11:46

Heard from a friend yesterday who runs in those circles in LA. Stories of people trashed in the early afternoon…

Comment by CHE
2016-04-15 12:20:27

Trashed in the early afternoon? We here in LA just call that brunch!

 
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-04-15 19:02:54

Hell, I knew people like that in the redneckistan portions of cali.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2016-04-15 22:48:05

NYC, too. Many moons ago, my husband and I had to attend a funeral in Queens and got there at ten o’clock, instead of eleven. We went into a local pub to kill time and figured having one drink before the sad occasion wouldn’t kill our livers. The bartender feigned embarrassment over one guy sleeping in a booth and another one under a table. Since both of us were/had been in the business, we laughed and said that it was nothing we hadn’t seen before. He pointed to the one on the floor and said that one tends bar in the city (meaning Manhattan.)

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 05:55:12

‘Up to 50,000 housing units in Cyprus have remained unsold for a considerable time based on the difference between the number of building permits authorised and contracts of sale deposited at Land Registry offices.’

‘The report also notes that approximately one third of the housing units built and sold since 2000 are still legally owned by the vendor and, with over 40,000 such cases, this is a major problem. Typically, the home buyer has paid the developer most of the sales price, or even its entirety, and has become a de facto owner. However, legally, the seller (usually a developer) still owns the property, as the transfer of the title deed has not taken place.’

‘In some cases developers have failed to repay the mortgage loan for building the property, despite having received the proceeds of the sale. As a consequence home buyers who have not received their title deeds may have an incentive to default on their home loans, since the bank that granted the mortgage (or other creditors) cannot foreclose on their property.’

‘Instead, it is the bank of a non-performing developer who has the right to seek foreclosure on the property. However, that would lead to evicting the home buyer, who would be left with only a junior claim to the foreclosure proceeds.’

‘Foreclosing on such de facto sold, but not transferred, property, though legal, would seriously undermine the attractiveness of Cyprus property market to foreign investors and would be politically and socially unacceptable.’

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-15 06:01:02

B…b…but they’re not building any more land on Cyprus….

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-04-15 10:28:10

‘Foreclosing on such de facto sold, but not transferred, property, though legal, would seriously undermine the attractiveness of Cyprus property market to foreign investors and would be politically and socially unacceptable.’

BUYING a property, and then making payments on a property, for which one has ZERO legal claim—now that’s a whole new level of stupid on the part of “investors”. OMG, _seriously_??!? Fools and their money, how does the saying go??

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2016-04-15 06:00:00

Article for the coastal Florida HBBers reports Greenland melting faster and earlier:

http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-greenland-ice-sheet-melt-20160414-story.html#nt=oft01a-1li2

“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush

Comment by Combotechie
2016-04-15 06:28:50

“Researchers at the Danish Meteorological Institute found that a whopping 12% of the ice sheet was covered in a layer of melt water that was at least 1 millimeter thick. Such double-digit figures typically don’t emerge until May – and the day before had seen levels of only 4%.”

Yeah? Well there was this El Nino thingy that was happening, which now seems to be ending.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-04-15 06:47:20

Whoever manages NASA’s Facebook page has had it up to here with climate change deniers:

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/nasa-climate-change-facebook-page_us_57101010e4b0018f9cb98d70

P.S. warmists gonna warm.

 
Comment by Oddfellow
2016-04-15 07:20:22

Well there was this El Nino thingy that was happening, which now seems to be ending.

Wow, I bet those scientist never thought of that. Why don’t they have someone like you around to give them good common-sense advice like that? I mean, you have the ability to disprove massive amounts of scientific work with one clever point. Those silly scientist never thought about el nino! So obvious, so simple.

Those darn eggheads. Can’t even run a good worldwide conspiracy.

Comment by Combotechie
2016-04-15 07:45:20

“Why don’t they have someone like you around to give them good common-sense advice like that?”

Well, I am here and I am offering them good common-sense advice.

Just happy to help.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Combotechie
2016-04-15 08:47:31

If you want to really help out some of these climate scientists that you regard so highly you might think of
contacting the Father of Global Warming, James Hansen, and informing him that his prediction of a twenty-to-thirty feet global sea level rise that he states will occur over the next fifty years is a bit out to lunch.

 
Comment by Oddfellow
2016-04-15 09:54:47

A conspiracy so large, no one can even offer a rational explanation for it.

Other than “they’re coming for our trucks”.

 
 
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-04-15 08:51:16

I know right! Scientists are so stupid!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Combotechie
2016-04-15 09:09:34

“I know right! Scientists are so stupid!”

The same judgment could be made about economists.

If the predictions and projections that were made and are made by some economists were taken seriously, such as their projections concerning budgets and pension funding, then some of these budgets and some of these pensions would be in deep trouble. Luckily these predictions and projections were not made for political reasons or any other reasons other than to present reality, both current reality or projected reality, else the economy would be suffering with problems that are associated with an economy being in sad shape rather than enjoying the excellent situation that we, collectively, are now enjoying.

 
Comment by Oddfellow
2016-04-15 09:57:23

So some economists will lie for big banks just like some scientists will lie for big oil.

 
Comment by redmondjp
2016-04-15 14:26:10

I think you meant to say the scientists who will lie to maintain their government funding.

 
 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-04-15 06:44:39

“what the scientists called an “extreme melt event,”

I spent a month in Storrs Connecticut at UConn one night in 1979 and we had one of those extreme melt events.

Comment by CT
2016-04-15 06:48:09

It hasn’t changed much since 1979 either. It’s still an Ag school and still makes the best ice cream ever.

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2016-04-15 06:55:49

Vicodin + pinot noir + MJ edibles = extreme melt event.

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-04-15 07:12:51

ooh ooh cant forget the snow blizzard, inside and outside

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-04-15 08:52:48
(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
 
Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
Comment by oxide
2016-04-15 08:30:16

More like, it *was* snacktime.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-04-15 06:21:33

Cramdowns are coming.

Business Day
Thousands of ‘Underwater’ Borrowers to Get Relief
By REUTERSAPRIL 14, 2016
Continue reading the main story

WASHINGTON — The Federal Housing Finance Agency said on Thursday that it would move to reduce the loan balances for thousands of borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth.

The agency, which regulates the government-controlled mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said about 33,000 people were expected to be eligible for the principal reduction program. It will be a one-time offering for seriously delinquent borrowers, to help them with what the agency’s director, Melvin L. Watt, said “could well be their final opportunity to avoid foreclosure.”

Homeowners must meet certain criteria to qualify, including having an outstanding principal balance of more than $250,000 and being more than 90 days delinquent on mortgage payments as of March 1.

“The national housing market has significantly improved in recent years but there are still areas of the country where home values have not recovered and negative equity remains a real problem,” Mr. Watt said.

The program will “allow an opportunity for delinquent, underwater borrowers in these areas to avoid foreclosure and save their homes,” he said.

Comment by oxide
2016-04-15 07:45:30

Not much information on this is available yet.

http://www.scotsmanguide.com/News/2016/04/FHFA-rolls-out-principal-reduction-program/

————-
“To qualify, a borrower needs to be 90 days past due on payments and also have a mortgage balance that is at least 115 percent of what the house could fetch in a home sale.The loan balance must be $250,000 or less. Also, servicers must solicit eligible borrowers no later than Oct. 15.

Borrowers who qualify will be able to get a portion of the loan forgiven, an interest-rate reduction and an extension of the loan term to 40 years, the FHFA said.

Watt …said that it met the agency’s statutory requirements to provide alternatives to foreclosure without harming the GSEs.”
—————

The last sentence is interesting. Looks like Congress gave Mel Watt and FHA blank check to write regulations they please so long as there is no “harm” to Fannie/Freddie. I wonder what the threshold is for “harm.” My guess is that Mel Watt doesn’t have much leeway if they can only cram down 33,000 houses nationwide, and only partially at that.

15% underwater is not a huge deal. Why not just run a short sale? Sounds like another bank-saver, under the cloak of “saving the chilluns.”

And IMO housing advocates can go hang. The home is not “theirs,” not legally.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 07:49:42

If a loan holder writes down a debt it isn’t a cram down. Cram down is when a judge or someone forces a lender to do so.

Comment by rms
2016-04-15 19:30:16

“Cram down is…”

Are 1099-c income taxes owed by the debtor for a cram down?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Oddfellow
2016-04-15 08:18:41

Looks like Congress gave Mel Watt and FHA blank check
to write regulations they please so long as there is no “harm” to Fannie/Freddie

Actually, it looks like Congress legally required them to do so.

 
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-04-15 08:54:46

No bank left behind.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2016-04-15 16:36:11

One link says $250,000 or less….
The other says over $250,000…

 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-04-15 08:08:57

smelly Mel -like a king

 
Comment by rms
2016-04-15 19:26:45

“Thousands of ‘Underwater’ Borrowers to Get Relief”

Note that the comments disabled for that piece. Fugg’n chits!

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 06:21:50

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9573

‘A recent report by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a federal agency that regulates the nation’s banks, warns that declines in mortgage underwriting standards are mirroring pre-crisis trends.

‘Underwriting standards eased at a significant number of banks for the three-year period from 2013 through 2015,’ the report said. ‘This trend reflects broad trends similar to those experienced from 2005 through 2007, before the most recent financial crisis.’ Not since 2006, it noted, have lenders taken on so much credit risk, and it says the hazard will continue to grow this year: ‘Examiners expect the level of credit risk to increase over the next 12 months.’

‘A large chunk of the risk is coming from first-time home buyers with shaky credit and so-called ‘rebound’ buyers who previously defaulted on home loans. The demand from otherwise ­uncreditworthy home buyers ‘is driving home prices up faster than incomes and inflation,’ noted ­Edward Pinto, co-director of AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk in Washington.’

‘This is especially true in hot spots like California, where subprime-mortgage lenders offering interest-only loans with no FICO-score requirements are cropping up from the ashes of Countrywide Financial, the bankrupt subprime giant.’

‘In another sign housing is overheating, home ‘flipping’ is red hot again and hitting levels not seen since just prior to the mortgage meltdown. Nationwide, almost 180,000 homes were sold and then resold last year — the highest level since 2007. In fact, according to RealtyTrac, flipping in a dozen metro areas — including New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, Miami and Jacksonville, Fla. — exceeded peaks set in 2005.’

‘Like the last bubble, this one is fueled by artificial demand from government-induced lax lending standards and accommodative interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. Today’s relaxation in mortgage-underwriting standards is largely a function of government housing-policy changes at FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which dominate the nation’s mortgage activity. As in the last easy-credit cycle, we are seeing ‘the promotion of policy to push firms to seek riskier products to promote growth,’ Wells Fargo Chief Economist John Silvia said.’

‘All three agencies have slashed down-payment and other requirements under pressure from Obama regulators, who include, most significantly, former Congressional Black Caucus leader and Obama appointee Mel Watt, head of the new Federal Housing Finance Agency, which now controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.’

‘Last year, Fannie Mae launched a new subprime-mortgage product called HomeReady that caters to recent immigrants with weak credit and limited income. The new loan program, which offers ‘income flexibility,’ allows borrowers for the first time to bundle income from roommates and relatives to meet qualifications for income. They only have to put 3% down, and can use gifts from nonprofit groups to subsidize their down payments.’

‘There is no limit on the number of non-borrower household members who can be present on a single transaction,’ Fannie advises originators. And even then there is ’documentation flexibility,’ a frightening echo of last decade’s ‘no-doc loans.’

‘You don’t have to show personal financial independence. You can be maxed out on credit cards and even live in government-subsidized housing. Just as long as you round up enough income-earners and pool ­finances to help meet a debt-to-income ratio of up to 50%. And you don’t need good credit. ‘If the borrower’s credit score is less than the minimum credit score required,’ Fannie tells loan underwriters, ‘the lender may develop an acceptable nontraditional credit profile’ that takes into consideration timely payments on electricity bills and car insurance — and even gym dues — in lieu of payments on credit cards and loans.’

‘Under HomeReady, you can even qualify for a ‘cash-out refinance’ of your mortgage, a type of loan that led to over-leveraging and a wave of defaults during the mortgage crisis.’

‘Why would Fannie offer the same kinds of poorly underwritten loans that forced it into bankruptcy? Because HomeReady aligns ‘with our housing goals’ set by Watt, it says in its Home­Ready literature. It’s all part of a government campaign to ease access to home loans for recent Hispanic immigrants — including those living here illegally. In fact, HomeReady caters to illegal immigrants by allowing borrowers to waive Social Security documentation.’

‘Watt, who as a congressman once demanded Freddie Mac back loans for welfare recipients in his North Carolina district, has instructed Fannie and Freddie to come up with ‘alternative credit-scoring models’ to FICO and approve more home buyers. ‘We have the pedal to the metal’ on adopting a new model, Watt said.’

Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 06:24:27

Record levels of appraisal and mortgage fraud and record low borrower qualifications.

What could possibly go wrong?

Comment by Combotechie
2016-04-15 07:33:52

“Record levels of appraisal and mortgage fraud and record low borrower qualifications.”

“What could possibly go wrong?”

Hey, if all of this results in rising prices then the miracle of wealth creation will continue. Income creation too.

Price rises create equity wealth. Price rises can be powered by mere commitments to buy hence equity wealth can be created by mere commitments to buy.

If these commitments to buy cost nuthin’ or close to nuhin’ then the cost of creating equity wealth costs nuthin’ or close to nuthin’.

Equity wealth is something that can be cashed out; I know this to be so because David Leareah says it is so.

Cashed out equity wealth results in income, real income, income that can be spent - a wonderful thing.

Rising prices also translates into rising rents and rising rents also result in income, income for the owner of the rental and also income - imputed income - for the homeowner who just happens to exist.

One form of rental income, actual rental income, can be spent (a wonderful thing) and the other form of income, imputed rental income, cannot be spent buy nevertheless it counts as a measure of prosperity in that it goes into the calculation of GDP (another wonderful thing). Some people have trouble with the idea that imputed income - income that cannot be spent - goes into the calculation of GDP and this shows just how limited these people’s imagination is.

All of this, all of these wonders, are brought about by rising prices, rising prices that do not have to actually be paid by the buyer but only have to be committed to being paid by the buyer, committed to being paid by many people who do not have a snowball’s chance in hell of actually paying them.

But that’s a problem for tomorrow, so … party on today.

Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 08:35:28

The $hithouse Philospher strikes.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Combotechie
2016-04-15 09:16:25

“The $hithouse Philospher strikes.”

The Truth, as I understand it.

 
Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 09:18:07

One word spelled f-r-a-u-d will save you time.

 
 
 
Comment by redmondjp
2016-04-15 14:27:47

Hi Housing Analyst,

Is ‘Haystacks Calhoun’ your new internet handle this week?

Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 15:25:40

Don’t have a meltdown my friend. Don’t have a meltdown.

San Francisco, CA Housing Prices Crater 7% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca/home-values/

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2016-04-15 06:27:16

bundle income from roommates and relatives

And they’ll make great neighbors, LOLZ.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 07:03:47

‘Watt, who as a congressman once demanded Freddie Mac back loans for welfare recipients in his North Carolina district, has instructed Fannie and Freddie to come up with ‘alternative credit-scoring models’ to FICO and approve more home buyers. ‘We have the pedal to the metal’ on adopting a new model, Watt said.’

I went through this Home Ready thing the other day and it’s worse than the original article said. No limit on how much of this paper can be put into a security offering. None. So there are pensions and life insurance policies out there depending on this room mate lending. The room mates aren’t technically on the loan, so guess what? No income or citizenship verification!

But there’s no subprime lending anymore.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-04-15 07:14:02

Another reason to live in a building that strictly enforces the limit of 2 occupants per unit.

And it’s owned and managed by a local LLC, not a corporation.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Rental Watch
2016-04-15 09:15:55

You don’t by chance live in a city that is under some rent control, do you?

Strictly enforcing rules is code for finding ways to kick out below-market tenants and raise the rents to market.

 
 
Comment by Karen
2016-04-15 15:28:02

“The room mates aren’t technically on the loan, so guess what? No income or citizenship verification!”

Could you simply make up some names and prepare fake documents “signed” by them?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-04-15 19:07:13

You can just stop by Home Depot on the way to the loan officer and pick up a truck load of vatos for the day.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-04-15 06:25:51

Oil prices are falling up again.

Markets Commodities
Oil Markets
Oil Prices Slide in Volatile Trade

Investors doubt that major producers can now agree a production freeze at a meeting on Sunday
By Georgi Kantchev
Updated April 15, 2016 8:47 a.m. ET

LONDON—Oil prices slid Friday on doubts that major producers can agree on supply curbs when they meet over the weekend.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 2.5% to $42.71 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures were trading down 2.6% at $40.44 a barrel.

Both benchmarks were up slightly earlier but dropped after a report that Iran’s oil minister Bijan Zanganeh won’t attend the oil producers’ summit Sunday in Doha, Qatar.

Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 06:37:54

This is positive news for the economy.

Remember…. Nothing accelerates the economy and creates jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.

 
Comment by Oddfellow
2016-04-15 07:33:27

Oil prices are falling up again.

But gas prices seem to have rallied. I do notice that diesel is now cheaper than regular, which I don’t think has happened in a while. When gas prices were high, diesel was so much higher than regular that I’m not sure a diesel car really saved you any money.

Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 07:48:17

Falling prices are good for our economy Lola.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 06:28:32

‘The latest trend in superyachts is renting, not buying’

‘If a superyacht is housed in the Caribbean, Dawson estimated it will be chartered only between three and five weeks a year. Superyachts in the Mediterranean end up rented between eight and 12 weeks a year, she said. With agent fees and value-added taxes cutting into the profits, there’s no guarantee putting a superyacht up for charter will recoup the owner’s maintenance costs, despite the growing popularity of chartering.’

“It’s more convenient, in the sense that they can charter where they want to and not have to worry about moving the yacht,” Ben Kinnard, a research analyst with Wealth-X, said. “We’ve seen a trend for trying out new destinations. If you want to try out Asia one month and Antarctica the next, there’s a lot of hassle if you own the yacht.”

Comment by X=GSfxr
2016-04-15 07:07:53

Can’t imagine that the yacht business is much different than the airplane business.

The trouble with chartering is that every wants to charter at the same time.

The other 45 weeks of the year, not so much.

 
Comment by Oddfellow
2016-04-15 07:35:44

Maintaining a superyacht is superexpensive even for a billionaire.

 
Comment by CalifoH20
2016-04-15 10:27:05

If It Flies, Floats Or Fornicates, Always Rent It

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-04-15 12:02:08

Not all models are available for rent, though…

 
 
Comment by Bluto
2016-04-15 10:33:52

There is an old expression that goes “If it flies, floats, or f#@&s…rent it!”

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 06:38:30

‘Inventory surged nearly 33 percent, and there is now a 21.5-month supply of properties. Prices for the top 10 percent of condos fell by 14.5 percent, to an average sale price of $3.13 million. Condos in the hyper-exclusive community of Bal Harbour saw the average sale price fall 38 percent over the year, to $1.02 million. The number of sales there dropped 32 percent’

‘Sales also took a hit, sinking 22% in March — which normally marks the start of the busy home-buying season. ‘We might be in a market that will continue to contract,’ said Nela Richardson, Redfin’s chief economist. ‘When it looks like a market is contracting and getting smaller, especially with home sales being down 22% year over year — that is big number and is worrisome.’

‘After a big dip in February, Downtown Seattle condominium prices were unchanged from the previous month, remaining $786 per square foot. Prices peaked at $853 per square foot set in January but have fallen off since.’

But rental watch says it’s tough to hire hammer swingers and that’s why prices are high. Tell it to the FBs in Miami and San Francisco.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-04-15 06:42:26

Mercer Island, WA Housing Market Implodes; Prices Crater 11% As Declines Ramp Up

http://www.zillow.com/mercer-island-wa/home-values/

 
Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 07:03:32

I forecast our “Seattle” housing media consultants will have another meltdown today.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-04-15 11:58:26

Who do you consider a “Seattle” housing media consultant?

Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 12:05:58

Why be concerned about what I characterize?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-04-15 12:19:20

Not concerned in the least—just curious. I couldn’t think of any posters that meet that description, IMO, so I was curious who you thought did.

 
Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 12:39:35

Well isn’t that interesting.

 
 
 
Comment by redmondjp
2016-04-15 14:29:05

No meltdown here, just higher real estate prices.

Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 19:37:36

Are you sure?

Bainbridge Island, WA Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/bainbridge-island-wa-98110/home-values/

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2016-04-15 09:22:51

It’s tough to build AFFORDABLE housing due to labor costs.

SF, Miami, Seattle (at $786 psf) are NOT affordable. They can pay whatever the labor market charges to build and sell a home.

And why are those markets now cracking? Lots of supply being built.

Try building a home where the target sale price is $130psf in a market where impact fees alone are $25psf, and you haven’t yet put in the infrastructure for the homes, or even acquired the land.

Hard costs, that used to be $50psf (and less) are now pushing $70psf. And that’s primarily driven by labor costs.

Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 09:29:59

lol@Rental_Fraud.

-There are no “fees” at $25/sq

-Labor expense is 40% of contract price

-We and our competitors are quite profitable anywhere in the country at $55/sq ft(lot, labor, materials and profit)

Comment by Rental Watch
Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 10:04:31

Sorry. No $50k build permits anywhere in the country. And with record high unemployment, there is no labor shortage.

Labor Force Participation Rate Falls To 38 Year Low; Joblessness At Record High

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

I called the hall last week and had half a dozen formwork carpenters on site the next day. When is the last time you hired trades?

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2016-04-15 12:15:33

http://www.stocktongov.com/files/StocktonDevFeeStudyPhase1.pdf

Warning, PDF, see page 15.

Impact Fees are out of control.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 12:23:40

October 15, 2015

The Stockton Record reports from California. “A variety of advocates for low-income housing, for minorities and for the south side made those arguments at a Stockton City Council meeting Tuesday night focusing on a proposal by builders and Mayor Anthony Silva to slash permit fees citywide in an attempt to stimulate the Stockton economy for the next three years. The Building Industry Association of the Greater Valley proposal calls for a roughly one-third reduction in the fees Stockton charges. Those fees surpass $50,000 on single-family homes, rendering the Stockton housing market uncompetitive against neighboring cities that charge lower fees, Beckman said. The BIA proposal calls for a $17,000 fee reduction for 1,000 new single-family homes in the next three years.”

“Most council members said they are eager for action of some sort to boost dormant homebuilding. ‘I think everyone here recognizes the need to reduce fees,’ Councilman Dan Wright said.”

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9294

 
Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 12:43:35

Will review the fees and respond later. You finally gave up on Lincoln California?

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2016-04-15 17:42:09

The Stockton reductions are limited to land currently in the City limits. New annexed property gets the old fees.

And the final agreed reduction was about $12,500, and limited to about 1,300 homes. Which in more normal times is about 1 year’s worth of development.

And Haystacks: Because you care, here is Lincoln’s schedule:

http://lincolnca.gov/home/showdocument?id=1463

It doesn’t take much to get over $35k.

And these fee schedules don’t usually include school fees, which in the case of Lincoln, are at least $4psf.

 
Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 19:29:45

And I take pleasure in exposing your misrepresentations for the second time this month.

http://lincolnca.gov/home/showdocument?id=1463

Rental Fraud, the ‘fee’ youre referring to has nothing to do with a building permit. They are expenses for actual work performed. In other words, instead of paying a contractor to do the work, you’re paying the municipality to perform the work that is typically performed by the contractor. STRIKE 1

And if you’re willing to look at the fine print, the municipality will waive the fee entirely if you opt to pay the contractor to do the work. These are not “fees”. STRIKE 2

So you see….. you really don’t understand the schedule because you never had to understand it ……. You’ve never built a thing in your life. STRIKE 3
———————————————-

Now lets review Stockton, CA Building Dept “Fees”

http://www.stocktongov.com/files/ResidentialFeeTable.pdf

Fixed fee- of $1078 for the first $100k and $.006 for every dollar over $100k or $2278 permit fee for a $300k house. Second fee is a plan check fee thats 42% of the building permit fee or $957 for a whopping cost of $3235.

You busted with your foot in your mouth again.

 
Comment by Karen
2016-04-15 20:15:05

So things like sewer and water connection fees don’t have to be paid to the city/town if you get the builder to do the connections for you?

What are ‘community fees’?

 
Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 20:50:00

It’s called sewer and water tax.

 
 
Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 11:00:37

And that labor quote drops to 25% if I don’t have to pay fringe and prevailing rate.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-04-15 11:07:23

Just hire illegals. They keep labor costs down. Just be sure to keep that warranty under 30 days.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 12:24:42

‘Just hire illegals’

I’m sure that’s what most of them are, here in Arizona anyway. Heck, we have illegals building highways.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-04-15 13:58:57

I bet the savings on neurosurgery if you use illegals is fantastic. Mexican lasik surgery is cheap… they just do one eye at a time in case they blind you.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2016-04-15 09:52:40

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-15/the-affordable-housing-crisis-moves-inland

Look at where rents are rising the most…inland.

No shortage of land, why aren’t they having a building boom in Merced?

Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 10:05:49

With 4.4 million excess empty and defaulted houses in CA, why build more?

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-04-15 12:26:29

can i get a list of those 100+ empty, defaulted homes in Carmel, CA. thanks.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 19:01:34

You can’t handle the truth kiddo.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 10:13:41

March 3, 2016

“After a stretch of little growth, the housing market in Merced County has begun to show new signs of life, with cities beginning to issue more housing construction permits and home sale prices rising faster than the state and national averages. The impact of the Bay Area’s infamously tight housing market is once again spilling over to Los Banos, where the city’s Planning Commission issued 73 permits for new home construction in the first two months of this year. That compares to the 127 permits taken out in all of 2015. ‘(Homes) are not being built and sitting there,’ Senior Planner Stacy Souza Elms said. ‘They’re being sold, as well.’”

“About two-thirds of the Los Banos homes are being sold to people looking to commute to Bay Area jobs, she said.”

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9544

Would there be lower wages if we weren’t building so many towers? Apartment construction is at a 30 year high. Why are there almost zero B,C or D apartments being built?

Comment by stewie
2016-04-15 11:20:56

“Los Banos”

This is funny. Who names these towns? Someone should open a restaurant here and call it “El Cagadero”.

“Hey, have you been to El Cagadero yet?”

“Yeah, its a real toilet.”

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by MightyMike
2016-04-15 11:43:17

Etymology
The name Los Banos is from Spanish los baños “the baths”.[6] It is named after a spring that feeds natural wetlands in the western San Joaquín Valley.[7] Its official spelling, reflected in the name of its post office, omits the tilde of the ñ.[8]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Banos,_California

 
Comment by stewie
2016-04-15 12:45:46

Your point is what? Its still a bathroom.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-04-15 12:53:43

You appeared to have a question about how the town got its name.

 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2016-04-15 12:19:58

“Would there be lower wages if we weren’t building so many towers? Apartment construction is at a 30 year high. Why are there almost zero B,C or D apartments being built?”

Apartment construction is high, but SFH construction is low. Combined, we are still way below the long-term average of total residential construction.

The main problem is that the downturn was so long that a lot of former construction workers left the industry, and they aren’t coming back.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 19:32:56

Considering total dollar volume of housing as a part of total construction spending in the US is in the single digits, residential contractors and their employees could evaporate and have zero effect.

 
 
 
 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-04-15 11:38:50

Miami could be like San Diego and Las Vegas were at the turn of 2006. I remember Ben posting the series of articles of new housing projects in Vegas back then going unsold and prices declining.

This portion of the bubble has been very slow because of the bailouts since 2007 . Very interesting to perhaps be witnessing the ground zero of the bubble burst on the top Miami properties. Eventually the mid priced ones will follow the pressure and it will all implode.

QE won’t fix it.

Comment by snake charmer
2016-04-15 16:19:13

I want to see what happens to that place where there’s an elevator to whisk your car up 50 stories.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article24411289.html

Comment by Muggy
2016-04-15 18:58:59

The Hudson Tea Building was built in 1913 and had a car elevator.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2016-04-15 06:41:58

Mississippi jails are losing inmates, and local officials are ‘devastated’ by the loss of revenue:

“If they don’t send us our inmates back, we can’t make it,” said one county supervisor.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/mississippi-jails-revenue_us_57100da1e4b06f35cb6f14e8

Comment by rms
2016-04-15 07:21:34

The corrections industrial complex.

Comment by Combotechie
2016-04-15 07:59:41

Crime does pay after all.

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2016-04-15 14:00:38

The abrupt layoffs this week of more than 100 staff members at the Connecticut Juvenile Training School has had a devastating impact on students at the school, staff members say.

http://www.middletownpress.com/general-news/20160414/connecticut-juvenile-training-school-workers-decry-layoffs-in-middletown

 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-04-15 06:52:28

It’s Probably Cheaper on the Web, Adobe’s Online Price Index Shows

Is the Internet making everything cheaper?

Well, not everything, but a lot of things, according to Adobe, which has come up with a new index to track the price of goods. The company gets its results by crunching data on millions of online transactions it tracks through its online marketing service.

The price of televisions online fell a cumulative 20.3 percent from February 2015 to February 2016, according to the latest numbers from Adobe’s Digital Price Index, released on Thursday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index, by contrast, logged a 15 percent drop in TV prices over the same time period.

The same held true for the price of household appliances like refrigerators and dishwashers. Online, appliance prices dropped 5.7 percent in the year to February, compared with a 2.7 percent decline in the government’s price index equivalent.

Furniture and bedding prices showed less of a fall online and in physical stores, but the spread between the two was still wide: a 2.5 percent decline, according to Adobe, compared with a 0.5 decline in the Consumer Price Index.

The new price index from Adobe is meant to be a complement to the price index released by the Labor Department, which tracks fewer goods online, offering economists new data points. The numbers released on Thursday were the second monthly numbers from the company.

The lower prices suggested by the digital index are good news if you’re in the market for a new television or refrigerator. The index also has implications for our understanding of the wider economy.

Austan Goolsbee, a former chairman of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, who has been helping Adobe develop its index, said the Adobe figures suggest that the government’s index could be underestimating deflation, or the overall fall in prices, in the economy.

“Large parts of the economy, a fast-growing part, is now e-commerce-oriented,” Mr. Goolsbee said. “And Amazon’s prices are much cheaper, and if everybody’s doing their shopping on Amazon, then that should properly be taken into account in the inflation rate in a way it isn’t now.”

He said it could help explain why inflation remained low, for example, despite a booming jobs market.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/15/business/economy/its-probably-cheaper-on-the-web-adobes-online-price-index-shows.html?_r=0

Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 07:05:31

Housing…. Stick with housing my friend.

Sarasota, FL Housing Prices Crater 16% YoY

http://www.movoto.com/sarasota-fl/market-trends/

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-04-15 07:32:02

“Large parts of the economy, a fast-growing part, is now e-commerce-oriented,” Mr. Goolsbee said.”

“He said it could help explain why inflation remained low, for example, despite a booming jobs market.”

despite a booming jobs market?

NYT Rounds Up ‘Left-Leaning Economists’ for a Unicorn Hunt

By Doug Henwood
Feb 17 2016

The “Mr. Goolsbee” quoted in the story is Austan Goolsbee, who was a long-time adviser to Barack Obama before he became president, and then served on Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers. (During the 2008 campaign, Goolsbee was reported as having assured the Canadian government that Obama’s anti-NAFTA talk was “more reflective of political maneuvering than policy”—New York Times, 3/4/08.) Now Goolsbee teaches economics at the University of Chicago’s business school and is a consultant to hedge funds.

 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-04-15 08:11:24

their $20 pdf decompiler is a free app from other sources
the cloud will clobber most sas etc

 
Comment by rj chicago
2016-04-15 08:45:32

Goolsbee is just another of a long line of hacks from Chicago -
How’s that smell of Chicago politics in your nose Murika?

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-04-15 06:56:01

Bend, OR Housing Market Crashes; Prices Plummet 16% On Cratering Housing Demand

http://www.zillow.com/bend-or-97701/home-values/

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-04-15 07:23:24

Bend = Oil City wages with Bay Area used house prices.

Deschutes is the only good thing that ever came out of that place.

Comment by Puggs
2016-04-15 10:40:20

To much biker S’pandex there!!!

Comment by mike
2016-04-16 11:15:46

bend o’er, baby!
Good enough for Gerry Lopez
Growing like weed
Hipsters galore from Ca. Myself included but too old to be a real hipster but my kid has a fixie!
Nice place to live but housing is overpriced and bubbly. $200 per square foot is the going rate it seems.
No longer an home groaner; just a store owner capitalizing on the legal weed growers eating at my place.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mary O’Neil
2016-04-15 07:15:29

I work in real estate, and I’m absolutely worried that we’re creating another big bubble.

Before the 2008 housing bubble burst, one’s mortgage fitness was supposed to be based on the income of the borrower, the person whose name would be on the deed and who was responsible for making timely monthly payments. Under this new scheme — and scheme is what it is — the combined income of everyone living in the house will be considered for a conventional home loan backed by Fannie. One may even claim income from people not living in the home, such as the borrower’s parents.

If, or as recent history proves, when the approved borrower defaults, who will pay? Taxpayers, of course, not the politicians and certainly not those associated with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose leaders made out like the bandits they were during the last mortgage go-round. As CNNMoney reported in 2011, Mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac received the biggest federal bailout of the financial crisis. And nearly $100 million of those tax dollars went to lucrative pay packages for top executives, filings show.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 07:34:15

‘the combined income of everyone living in the house will be considered for a conventional home loan backed by Fannie’

The number of which is not limited. All they have to do is sign an intent to live in the house for 12 months.

Oh, and the refinancing! Yes, we can’t limit this plan to help poor people buy a house, but to do a cash out refi, for any purpose! And this is one of many new loan schemes to kick this market up a notch:

‘The FHA Streamline is a refinance mortgage loan available to homeowners with existing FHA mortgages. The program simplifies home refinancing by waiving the documentation typically required by a bank, including income and employment verification, bank account and credit score verification, and an appraisal of the home. Homeowners can use the program to reduce their FHA mortgage insurance premiums (MIP)’

Read this again:

‘waiving the documentation typically required by a bank, including income and employment verification, bank account and credit score verification, and an appraisal’

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 07:38:42

‘The FHA Streamline Refinance program’s defining characteristic is that it does not require a home appraisal. Instead, the FHA will allow you to use your original purchase price as your home’s current value, regardless of what your home is actually worth today.’

‘In this way, with its FHA Streamline Refinance program, the FHA does not care if you are underwater on your mortgage. Rather, the program encourages underwater mortgages.’

‘Even if you owe twice what your home is now worth, the FHA will refinance your home without added cost or penalty. The “appraisal waiver” has been a huge hit with U.S. homeowners, allowing unlimited loan-to-value (LTV) home loans via the FHA Streamline Refinance program.’

‘Homeowners in places like Florida, California, Arizona and Georgia have benefitted greatly.’

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-04-15 12:17:38

As long as they don’t allow cash-out refi’s, the risk to the taxpayer seems to be the same or possibly even lower—assuming that they are refi’ing a mortgage that the taxpayer is already on the hook for. Given that, a lower interest rate should reduce the debtor’s debt-service as a percent of income, and thus lower the risk.

Now, a cash-out refi, that’s a whole ‘nother story…

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 12:28:02

‘As long as they don’t allow cash-out refi’s’

‘FHA Streamline Refinance
Learn About Your Mortgage Options’

‘Sending a child to college, consolidating bills, taking a much needed vacation, or making home improvements are some of the ways homeowners tap into the equity they have accumulated in their home to help with these expenses.’

http://www.fha.com/fha_streamline_refinance

You have to have cash to go on a vacation.

 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-04-15 07:48:03

‘waiving the documentation typically required by a bank, including income and employment verification, bank account and credit score verification, and an appraisal’

Didn’t they used to call the Liar Loans?

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 07:51:14

You don’t have to lie anymore. No fraud involved.

‘allowing unlimited loan-to-value (LTV) home loans via the FHA Streamline Refinance program’

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 08:37:00

“You don’t have to lie anymore. No fraud involved.”

BINGO.

That doesn’t change the fact that it’s subprime and essentially a junk bond.

 
Comment by Combotechie
2016-04-15 08:38:02

Money for nuthin’ = equity for free.

 
 
 
Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 08:42:45

“‘waiving the documentation typically required by a bank, including income and employment verification, bank account and credit score verification, and an appraisal’”

Thats a direct quite from a Quicken Loans commercial. But not that this is anything new as it’s been going on non-stop since 2001 but now they’re blatant about it.

 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2016-04-15 10:34:53

‘The number of which is not limited. All they have to do is sign an intent to live in the house for 12 months.’

Great, 20 strawberry pickers can pool their money.

 
 
Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 09:10:33

This thread kinda reminds me of George Bush and the Iraq disaster that he and his gang started and then stood around asking himself and everyone around him “WTF happened?”.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-15 10:05:12

Can You Get a Home Equity Loan Without Having an …
budgeting.thenest.com › Mortgages & Remodeling › Home Equity Loans
In fact, a number of banks only use limited appraisals on home equity loans, in many … BD Nationwide Mortgage: The “No Appraisal” Home Equity Loan from BD …
Home Equity Loan - Tower Federal Credit Union
http://www.towerfcu.org › Home LoansTower Federal Credit Union
Ability to borrow up to 100% of your home’s equity*; No fees unless you request a drive-by appraisal. Tower pays … HELOC - up to 80% LTV, 3.000%, 3.000%.
Homeowner Loans - United States Senate Federal Credit …
https://www.ussfcu.org/homelo…United States Senate Federal Credit Union
Homeowner; Home Equity; Classic Line HELOC; Smart Line HELOC. Homeowner … No appraisal is required and the interest you pay may be tax deductible*.
Apr 25, 2013 - There are many reasons to get a HELOC or home equity line of credit; college … The reason it was so cheap is there was no appraisal required.
Credit Union Home Equity Loan | Alliant Credit Union
https://www.alliantcreditunion.org/…/credit-union-h…Alliant Credit Union
A home equity loan or home equity line of credit (HELOC) from Alliant can help you … There are no closing costs, application fees, appraisal fees, or annual fees.
Eminent Mortgage - Home Equity Line Of Credit
http://www.eminentmortgage.com/home…/home-equity-line-of-credit.html
Considerations For Your Home Equity Line Of Credit. No HELOC application fee or at least the fee will be refunded at closing. No home loan appraisal or closing …

Californians took out 42% of HELOC’s last year with an average amount of over $90,000.

Think about it; all this refi and HELOC isn’t even buying houses. Why would they be doing this? Sure, it makes the REIC happy. But I suspect it has more to do with pumping money into the economy. Do you suppose these Californians even earned 90k last year? They are never going to pay that back. Do you think they forgot how everybody got away with whining into the night the last time? Pedal to the metal indeed.

 
 
 
Comment by rj chicago
Comment by taxpayers
2016-04-15 10:27:10

he’s got TABOR

Comment by rj chicago
2016-04-15 11:49:16

My sense is this thing needs to go down in smoke and flames - TABOR will be irrelevant in the wake of CO being the highest taxed state in the entire country.
Be careful - elections have consequences.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-04-15 12:07:02

he’s got TABOR

Laugh all you want. My property tax bill is LOWER (1900 vs 2200) than it was 15 years ago. All I ever hear from you is how yours keeps going up.

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2016-04-15 11:40:34

The problem is too many FSA and other coastal redistributionists moving here:

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_29767840/colorado-has-more-people-move-than-any-other

It was nice while it lasted, but this place is over.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-04-15 12:04:06

I seriously doubt it will pass. Coloradans might be socially liberal, but they hate paying taxes even more. I predict it will fail 1-2 on election day, which is pretty much what happens here to all ballots issues that will raise taxes.

Comment by rj chicago
2016-04-15 14:46:29

Colorado:
What blows my mind is even the consideration of this to begin with - how much free sh*t can be given away before it ain’t free sh*t anymore - if everything is free then it can’t be free by definition anymore right?
Good to know that it most likely will fail - still - the thought that this is even on the ballot is like yikes!!!

 
 
 
Comment by Dutch Spikes
2016-04-15 08:54:37

Two recent articles on the home interest deduction, which is just as complicit as low rates and easy mortgages in fueling the current asset bubble. (I had no idea the HID was currently limited to 1,000,000 in debt.)

http://www.themreport.com/news/origination/04-14-2016/reevaluating-the-mortgage-interest-deduction

http://www.forbes.com/sites/erincarlyle/2016/04/12/new-report-says-mortgage-interest-tax-deduction-fueling-inequality-for-women-minorities/#f1d5b8764238

Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 09:14:52

The MID only makes sense to DebtDonkeys. Pay a dollar, get a quarter in return.

Comment by Giant Haystacks
2016-04-15 16:11:48

Haystacks Calhoun was a lightweight.

Heaviest Wrestlers in History; The World’s Largest Pro Wrestlers …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8uP_V3AlQ8 - 266k -

 
 
 
Comment by rj chicago
2016-04-15 09:09:14
 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-04-15 09:50:03

MR Banker better come w a 10yr car loan. If car sales stall it’s lights out.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-04-15 10:09:04

10 yr loan, 3 yr warranty….good luck fixing that transoxy3000 sensor.

 
 
Comment by Puggs
2016-04-15 10:38:13

If you jump into this market paying what houses cost today you only have yourself to blame!

Comment by Muggy
2016-04-15 19:17:40

I kinda blame my landlords, Casey Serin, Countrywide, etc.

CRUSHING.EVERYTHING.LOSSES

 
 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2016-04-15 18:40:42
Comment by aNYCdj
2016-04-16 07:08:54

wow it snows there too……it would be cool if it was in FL or SC for the winter

 
 
Comment by Muggy
2016-04-15 19:01:46

Closing Wednesday… Got our final disclosures today.

Comment by Haystacks Calhoun
2016-04-15 19:45:31

lol@FL_Donk

Comment by Muggy
2016-04-15 20:34:52

Chewer^

 
 
 
Comment by Muggy
2016-04-15 19:08:42

“Article for the coastal Florida HBBers reports Greenland melting faster and earlier”

This is how people in my ‘hood are are responding
http://picpaste.com/image1.JPG

Comment by rms
2016-04-16 03:55:20

No shear walls in hurricane country?

 
 
Comment by Muggy
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-04-15 19:24:30

phony scandals

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2016-04-15 23:07:25

Tonight I was deleting old web sites bookmarked on my laptop and found this 1992 youtube. It’s only 30 seconds.

New World Order - Dick Cheney - Military Strategy (5/24/1992) CBS

Comment by phony scandals
2016-04-16 05:25:28

Hiding in plain sight.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2016-04-16 11:11:06

So true, phony. Here’s another one (speech made a few months before 9/11. Almost like he knew what was going to happen.)

Wolfowitz chilling speech

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-04-27 06:28:43

Solar Subsidies Scam Taxpayers And Homeowners | Stock News …
http://www.investors.com/…/ - 203k - Cached - Similar pages
Jan 13, 2015

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-04-27 06:40:58

Customers tell horror stories of solar company that gets $422M in tax …
watchdog.org/130098/solarcity-horror-stories/ - Similar pages
Feb 26, 2014 ..

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-04-27 11:55:39

Michael Savage - GREEN GANGSTERS TIED TO OBAMA SCORE …
http://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10153688567851848&id=123040616847 - 181k - Cached - Similar pages

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-04-27 12:15:16

THE GREEN CORRUPTION FILES
greencorruption.blogspot.com/ - 526k -

 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post