April 28, 2016

When Buyers Would Pay More Than The House Is Worth

Lex 18 reports from Kentucky. “Experts said the market in the Bluegrass is hot. It’s the best that realtors have seen in years, especially in Lexington. Lucy Clark has been on the hunt for a new home for about a month. However, she said houses are flying off the market. ‘It definitely seems crazier than it was when I bought a home three years ago,’ said Clark. ‘It’s kind of crazy right now to be honest with you,’ said Ty Brown, President Elect of the Lexington-Bluegrass Association Of Realtors. It’s also a first for many sellers, such as Mitzi Riva. She just put her mother’s house on sale.”

“‘Absolutely crazy,’ said Riva. ‘There has been probably five realtors here in the last hour.’ Realtors said the only comparisons are 2005 and 2006, however this time there’s no bubble, the market is healthy.”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Median new home prices in the Dallas-Fort Worth area now top $300,000 – almost 50 percent more than what you’d pay for a mid-priced preowned home in the area. Median new home prices have increased by almost 60 percent in North Texas in the last decade, Metrostudy figures show. In the first quarter, starts of houses that will sell for $500,000 to $749,000 rose more than 50 percent, the research firm found. And starts of homes priced at $750,000 and more were up by more than 30 percent. Total home starts rose 22 percent in the first quarter from 2015 levels, Metrostudy reports.”

“‘Due to rapidly rising land and development costs, developers argue there is little hope for the revival of the sub-$200,000 new home market,’ said Paige Shipp, regional director for housing analyst Metrostudy. ‘An entry level home on a typical 50-foot-by-110-foot lot is no longer feasible.’”

The Tampa Bay Times in Florida. “It may be a seller’s market but try telling that to a lot of overly optimistic ones. Despite a shortage of available properties in the Tampa Bay area, sellers are reducing prices on hundreds of homes even before the first offer comes in and the true haggling begins. In the past seven days alone, there have been price reductions on nearly 1,000 single-family bay area homes, according to the Multiple Listing Service. Many of those already had price drops and some are in especially hot markets.”

“Last year, Ann Rogers, an agent with Northstar Realty in St. Petersburg began noticing a significant number of price reductions as she searched on MLS for homes that were south of Pinellas County’s Ulmerton Road and that were on the market for at least $500,000. That perplexed her. At a time when the supply of homes was so tight, shouldn’t demand have been keeping prices up? ‘All of sudden in November the price decreases started outweighing the new listings,’ she said. ‘So I thought, what’s going on here, and it must be that real estate agents in pricing property must have overshot the market and the market isn’t going up as fast as we anticipated and now we’re getting a course correction.’”

“In just the past seven days, prices have been cut on 371 single-family homes in Hillsborough, 325 in Pinellas, 195 in Pasco and 31 in Hernando. For Hillsborough, that’s 9.2 percent of all active listings. For Pinellas, it’s 11 percent. And some of those houses that didn’t have price decreases in the past week might have dropped in price earlier. ‘There’s been a ton’ of reductions, says Vince Pennino, a veteran Coldwell Banker agent. ‘The buyer will pay what the house is worth but they are not paying any more than the house is worth. That sounds simple and crazy but there was a time when they would.’”

Biznow in Georgia. “The apartment arm of one of the nation’s biggest homebuilders is taking a crack at the hot Midtown multifamily market. Lennar Multifamily is aiming to develop 195 Thirteenth St, a 27-story, 307-unit apartment project. But it’s coming at a time that many consider the later stages of a multifamily boom that has literally transformed the skyline in the city. We recently reported how multifamily listing website Adobo is seeing asking rents begin to decline in Atlanta. And a number of finance execs told our audience during a recent capital markets event that lending for new multifamily projects is getting tighter as concerns grow about the number of units still to come to the market—and the depth of the demand for them.”

“In a recent survey of apartment developers, Haddow & Co found that Buckhead may be in trouble, with 62% of the 71 respondents believing the Buckhead/Brookhaven submarket is at the greatest risk of overbuilding. In that same survey, 80% feel that debt financing is pulling back. But despite that, nearly two-thirds are still pursuing new apartment sites. Ladson Haddow says performance may be peaking with a flurry of units in lease-up or underway. ‘We don’t believe that there’s a lot of growth left at the high end of the market,’ Ladson says. He notes that while asking rents are at all-time highs, concessions have begun to creep back into the market.”

“He notes that 11 apartment towers in Midtown delivering in the next 18 months will likely need to achieve $2.50/SF rents to justify development costs. ‘The reality is nobody knows how the market’s going to react to that much luxury supply. I think we’ll all find out how deep the demand is for luxury product in Midtown soon enough.’”

The Real Deal on New York. “Real estate investment trust UDR is starting to feel the supply squeeze in the Manhattan residential market. On a first-quarter earnings call Tuesday, COO Jerry Davis noted that an expected influx of new apartments through 2017 forced the company to revise revenue growth projections. Davis said the Denver-based residential REIT is ‘beginning to feel the impact from the new supply in the Manhattan market.’”

“That new supply consists of 25,000 new apartments slated for delivery through the end of this year and ‘even higher’ deliveries of 30,000 new units in 2017, Davis said. The REIT also said it is projecting its 2017 revenue growth figures for New York to be ‘moderately lower than in 2016,’ also attributing that to the ‘continuing pressures of new supply.’”

“Davis cited third-party data indicating that nationwide apartment operator could expect unit supply to ‘peak this year’ in every one of its markets ‘with the exception being New York City.’ New York is also the only market UDR operates in ‘that will experience a higher number of deliveries in 2017 than in 2016,’ the REIT said.”

SF Curbed in California. “If you’re smarting over your mortgage, you can always console yourself that at least you have it better than everyone who‘s still renting — unless you bought in Cupertino, Los Altos, or Woodside, in which case we’re afraid your tenants are getting the last laugh. That’s what Trulia’s bi-annual, 100 metro area Rent vs. Buy report says, which singles out the nine exclusive Bay Area communities where the number crunching shows that renting is a better deal than buying.”

“Anyone with a lease within nine select metro areas can pat themselves on the back for beating the housing crisis, at least for now. The town of Los Altos Hills (not to be confused with the actual city of Los Altos, right next door) gives the best value: The median rent is over $10,000, but since the median home value is over $4 million. Technically speaking, that’s a bargain by a margin of 16.2 percent.”

“Saratoga comes in second with $6,100 rents over $2.3 million home values, a savings of 12.1 percent. Third is Monte Sereno (population 3,300), where you get a savings of 11.9 percent by renting for $7,000 a month rather than buying a home for $2.7 million.”




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160 Comments »

Comment by Dandroidz
2016-04-28 03:49:47

‘ “If you’re smarting over your mortgage, you can always console yourself that at least you have it better than everyone who‘s still renting —”‘ Unless you bought in….any place USA.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-04-28 06:57:26

“The median rent is over $10,000, but since the median home value is over $4 million. Technically speaking, that’s a bargain by a margin of 16.2 percent.”

Median gross rent in 2013: $2,089 according to city-data. That should translate into $200,000 house prices (three years ago). incomes in that crazy corner of the world are really not so extraordinary.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-04-28 07:27:43

It seems useless to discuss the rent-own calculations in an area where prices are in the parabolic blowout stage of another bubble. The main value of renting in that case is to avoid losing hundreds of thousands in home equity wealth in the next crash, which is not considered in rent-own calculators.

 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-04-28 13:02:54

home prices were was 120-130 times rent
about 200x rent where I am

 
 
Comment by rj chicago
2016-04-28 07:46:11

http://wwwtheworldandeverythinginit.blogspot.com/2016/04/what-americans-spent-most-money-on-in-q1.html

I wonder if recreation included Colorado pot sales? Bwaaahahahahah!!!

 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2016-04-28 04:46:02

We all wonder about the invisible hand of the Fed in the financial products markets. Looks like the BOJ has been outed for its stock market involvement.

The Tokyo Whale Is Quietly Buying Up Huge Stakes in Japan Inc.
by: Yuji Nakamura, Anna Kitanaka, Nao Sano
April 24th, 2016
Bloomberg

While the Bank of Japan’s name is nowhere to be found in regulatory filings on major stock investors, the monetary authority’s exchange-traded fund purchases have made it a top 10 shareholder in about 90 percent of the Nikkei 225 Stock Average, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg from public data. It’s now a major owner of more Japanese blue-chips than both BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest money manager, and Vanguard Group, which oversees more than $3 trillion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-24/the-tokyo-whale-is-quietly-buying-up-huge-stakes-in-japan-inc

Comment by Combotechie
2016-04-28 05:22:20

In a world where price equals value and value equals wealth a way to maintain wealth is to maintain prices.

Also, the way to increase wealth is to increase prices. This is fairly easy to do if all that is needed to do is to buy up what is for sale at a higher price.

Note: Not everything is needed to be bought up at higher prices for this to work, only that that is offered up for sale. The actions performed on a few will affect the wealth of the many.

And if the money that is spent on performing this miracle can be conjured up out of thin air then what’s not to like?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-04-28 07:40:30

Central bank manipulation seems to be the key driver behind stock market moves these days.

The Financial Times
Japan Economy
Yen surges and stocks sink after Bank of Japan keeps policy on hold
Decision comes despite return to annual deflation for the first time since 2013
EPA/FRANCK ROBICHON
3 hours ago
Robin Harding in Tokyo

The yen surged by 3 per cent and equities slumped after the Bank of Japan dashed market hopes of stimulus despite data showing the country had fallen back into deflation for the first time since 2013.

It means that Haruhiko Kuroda, the BoJ governor, confronts the most perilous moment of his three-year battle against deflation as a rising yen threatens to undermine the confidence of Japanese companies.

Mr Kuroda insisted he is simply waiting to judge the effects of January’s shock move to interest rates of minus 0.1 per cent, but his inaction highlights the BoJ’s increasingly passive and after-the-fact responses to weak data.

“We have kept monetary policy on hold this time while the effects of quantitative easing with a minus interest rate sink in,” Mr Kuroda said. “Those effects don’t appear in a month or two but I don’t think it’ll take as long as six months or a year.”

That timescale suggests the BoJ could ease policy again over the summer. Mr Kuroda, who has shown a preference for large, surprise actions rather than incremental easing, said the central bank will act “without hesitation” if further loosening is needed to reach 2 per cent inflation.

The broad Topix stock index closed down 3.2 per cent at 1,341 with banking shares especially hard hit. The yen was up 3 per cent at ¥108.2 against the dollar, close to its high for the year.

Mr Kuroda’s decision to keep rates on hold, when more than half of market analysts expected an easing, is partly a bet that a recovering US economy will come to the rescue. A neutral statement from the US Federal Reserve the previous night held open the possibility of a US rate rise in June.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-04-28 10:36:10

Bank of Japan makes you feel sorry for impotent central bankers
Published: Apr 28, 2016 12:37 p.m. ET
Analysis: Market reaction underlines Catch-22 dilemma
Is Kuroda running out of options?
By William Watts
Deputy markets editor

Maybe an international Hug-A-Central-Banker Day is overdue.

Take Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda, for instance. Japanese and Asian stocks (NIK, -3.61%) tanked and the yen (USDJPY, -2.98%) saw an unwelcome jump Thursday after the Bank of Japan opted to remain on hold despite the country’s deteriorating economic picture.

But in January, it was the Bank of Japan’s surprise decision to push interest rates into negative territory that prompted economists to question whether central bankers were running out of tools in a desperate attempt to boost stubbornly low inflation and weakening global growth.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2016-04-28 11:03:36

More than half of market analysts expected a reduction in interest rates that already are negative. Remarkable. But not nearly as remarkable as our own failure to learn from this will be.

 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-04-28 04:57:02

Trigglypuff - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHKmYCCX4_w - 158k - Cached - Similar pages
1 day ago

Comment by phony scandals
2016-04-28 05:06:13

I wouldn’t feel safe in her safe-space.

 
Comment by rms
2016-04-28 06:35:02

Now that’s a SJW right there. LOLZ!

 
Comment by Young Deezy
2016-04-28 07:55:22

ROFLMAO. So glad she’s been meme’d. I don’t even think it took 24 hrs before she was all over the internet. Her OkCupid is pretty LOL too.

 
Comment by junior_bastiat
2016-04-28 13:02:28

Thank you for that! Comments are gold.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-28 05:25:23

What pretext will the rioters and looters use to kick off “Purge Nights” in our Democrat-run urban dystopias?

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-baltimore-police-shoot-13-year-old-boy-who-was-carrying-fake-gun-2016-4

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-04-28 07:40:50

Tamir Rice’s family is getting $6M from the City of Cleveland.

Comment by Young Deezy
2016-04-28 07:58:00

They won the ghetto lottery.

Comment by Oddfellow
2016-04-28 08:23:25

Like a FOAM getting on SS disability, so he can rant about creeping socialism and the FSA full-time on the internet.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-28 05:26:29

Uh-oh…Canadian snowbirds are cashing out of the US housing bubble.

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/04/28/canary-in-the-us-housing-market-canadian-snowbirds-cash-out/

Comment by palmetto
2016-04-28 06:29:10

While that might bother some folks who make money off them, as a Floridian who has no stake seasonal Canadian business, I say don’t let the door hit ‘em where the good lord split ‘em. Although there are exceptions, they act all nicey-nice and hearty, then they tend to be cheap and stiff people in the service industry. Since Canada is having its own difficulties, let ‘em spend their money in Canada. Someone’s gotta support Trudeau’s pop stand. And it’s better for the traffic here.

Comment by snake charmer
2016-04-28 07:48:23

Tourism I like, but real estate speculation I don’t. My only other gripe is that visiting Canadians, when on the interstate, tend to drive slower than the speed limit, which around here might as well be a felony.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-28 05:28:57

A foretaste of life after the FSA picks clean the producers under our permanent Democrat Supermajority. Welcome to the jungle….

https://panampost.com/sabrina-martin/2016/04/27/looting-venezuela-food-electricity/

Comment by phony scandals
2016-04-28 06:06:01

Never more than days not weeks away from happening.

 
Comment by Combotechie
2016-04-28 06:22:06

It’s not the fault of the Venezuelan leadership, it’s because of El Nino and Climate change …

http://www.ibtimes.com/venezuelan-leader-blames-el-nino-global-warming-nations-energy-crisis-2349921

Comment by In Colorado
2016-04-28 11:41:18

While the claim that reservoirs are low and hampering hydro power generation is true, Venezuela has oil and gas coming out of its ears. They have no excuse for not being able to generate electricity, other than incompetence and corruption.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-28 17:16:28

Venezuela has a socialist government. Incompetence and corruption are redundant, just as they are with any big-city Democrat administration.

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Comment by rj chicago
2016-04-28 08:17:25
Comment by In Colorado
2016-04-28 11:50:01

Interesting. Mexico has been printing its own currency for decades. Reading these stories about how Venezuela does not seem to produce anything besides oil is interesting.

Mexico has become less self sufficient recently, as they too are importing cheap cr@p from China.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-28 17:17:49

Yeah I saw that. What an object lesson for the inevitable end-state of any collectivist regime. Coming soon to a permanent Democrat Supermajority basket case near you.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-28 05:32:56

The Keynesian crack dealers at the BoJ have stunned the addicts, er, “markets” by refusing more stimulus - for now. Which means Yellen or Draghi will have to step in to prop up the Ponzi.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-28/boj-holds-off-on-more-stimulus-to-gauge-impact-of-negative-rate

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-04-28 05:33:13

I think this guy reads this blog.

At 2:59 “listen up special snowflake”

This is What a Social Justice Warrior Looks Like - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFrZsGbO6N0 - 245k - Cached - Similar pages
11 hours ago ..

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-28 05:37:20

The intelligent 5% are buying up gold to preserve their wealth as Yellen the Felon is intent on inflating away all government and corporate debts and liabilities.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gcm6

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-04-28 07:26:25

GDXJ and AUY are HOT!

There are people who don’t like gold because to own physical gold means you don’t agree with the fractional reserve. The biggest fraud in the world is the Federal Reserve.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-04-28 08:02:55

Possibly owning gold is from a lack of trust in Fiat. We had a fractional reserve system when we were on the gold standard and we had fiat before we had the Federal Reserve. The fraud that concerns me mostly is the Fed inflation machine, which has taxed away the wealth of the nation at a rate of 2+% for decades.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-28 05:44:03

Somebody is getting themself a nice new house in Vancouever or San Francisco.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-27/china-wealth-manager-disappears-154-million

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-28 06:15:03

‘‘Due to rapidly rising land and development costs, developers argue there is little hope for the revival of the sub-$200,000 new home market…‘An entry level home on a typical 50-foot-by-110-foot lot is no longer feasible.’

We have a poster here who says land prices have nothing to do with house prices.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-28 06:28:12

We have a poster here who says land prices have nothing to do with house prices.

The minder at his group home should be encouraging this special-needs adult to use the home’s computer to look for car-wash jobs, not post drivel on the HBB.

Comment by rj chicago
2016-04-28 08:26:18

Ben -
As I recall Rental and I had a brief exchange on this forum oh some 18 months ago about the cost of land and how this is fueling the issues pointed out in the article on Dallas RE.

I believe it was HA that was dropping the hammer on us making the argument that there are millions and millions of acres of land available so the cost of land meme that Rental was supporting (me too) was a bunch of hocum.
Deal is utilities and water availalbility. When I had been looking for land there in CO a couple years back - what I learned that after paying for the dirt I would have the ‘privlege’ of paying another 60 to 80 k for utility hook ups to build a home I balked - I thought man where are these gooobmit town councils get off - 80 k for water tap and sewer - really?
Well here we are -

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-28 08:53:04

‘I learned that after paying for the dirt I would have the ‘privlege’ of paying another 60 to 80 k for utility hook ups’

I’ve been told people are asking something like 500k for tear downs in east Dallas. So where is the utility cost in that? A couple months ago I posted an article showing Fredricksburg Tx house price up into the 300ks. You probably don’t know where that is but that is pure insanity. I looked it up and lo and behold, the federal loan cap was right around 300k.

Do some of these governments get in on the act? What’s 60k or 80k going to matter on top of 500k? Heck, it’s all rolled into a loan somewhere.

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Comment by palmetto
2016-04-28 10:00:40

The end is near. All the signs are there.

Remember, remember the first of September. 2016. Big Popperoo!

 
Comment by rms
2016-04-28 19:48:41

“Do some of these governments get in on the act?”

High property taxes are closing the funding gap in these counties.

 
 
Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 09:04:14

“utility hookups”?

Back to this grand ol’ lie are we…. ok.

There isn’t a single location in the entire US where a connection fee for an end user for a SFR is this imaginary amount. Not one.

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Comment by rj chicago
2016-04-28 09:30:36

Prove it up HA.

 
Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 09:34:35

It’s your claim, prove it. Many try but not one can substantiate it.

 
Comment by rj chicago
2016-04-28 12:04:31

HA - this was two years ago - area near Parker CO - this was only for tap fees - add in another 20 to 30 k in permitting fees, site development fees and additional taxing district fees I was at 60 k before a shovel got in the ground. This is typical for undeveloped lots of say an acre in Doug Co. Colorado.

This quoted from rep at Pinery new lot development - lots were 3/4 of an acre.

“Pinery Water and Sanitation District current tap fee for a ¾ inch water tap fee and sanitary sewer tap fee is $ 33,107.00″

Dave P.

 
Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 12:26:33

That’s not proof my friend. That’s a developer telling you what you’re going to pay and you believe it. So at this stage, you’re just guessing because you really don’t know.

Here’s real proof.

Here’s a 4″ ductile iron tap with 2″ cast iron hydrant ordered by the owner, a commercial customer.

40′ Class 51 DI Pipe
4- 90’s
1-Tee
5-Megalug kits
1-hydrant
1-meter
1-corp stop, 4″ gate

8-man hour
1- mini ex

A visit from the Water Dept.

Grand total- $6500

My guys did this work this morning. Today. Right now.

http://picpaste.com/pics/9878c2968ca2576fcf7c3e1b912d2731.1461870971.png

 
Comment by redmondjp
2016-04-28 14:08:40

So great HA, you obviously live somewhere in flyover country.

Your prices are not representative of any major urban area in this entire country.

 
Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 14:13:41

You’re backpedalling again.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 06:29:17

They sure do when you pay too much.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-28 07:01:22

‘In the first quarter, starts of houses that will sell for $500,000 to $749,000 rose more than 50 percent, the research firm found. And starts of homes priced at $750,000 and more were up by more than 30 percent. Total home starts rose 22 percent in the first quarter from 2015 levels’

Somebody is going to lose some money.

Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 07:06:30

Alot of somebodys are going to lose buckets of money that make 2009 look like they won the Powerball.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-04-28 07:22:05

So many millionaire-priced new homes, so few millionaires to own and occupy them. It seems like all the government meddling in housing has led to a terrible mismatch between the distribution of household wealth and the mix of housing that gets built, as people who just want a place to live have few affordable options.

Comment by snake charmer
2016-04-28 07:52:34

That was the message of an article I posted about earlier this year — we have succeeded in creating a sham economy of homes without people, and people without homes. And the phenomenon is global. Far worse than this reality is the fact that leaders can’t see it or won’t.

 
Comment by Dandroidz
2016-04-28 07:56:45

What is the stat, 47 million folks on food stamps/Govt assistance? The only jobs being added as of late go in the service industry (bar tending/waitress). The Govt and its failed policies are absolutely crushing everyone, except for the very rich.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-04-28 10:40:26

The number “47″ mysteriously keeps appearing in discussions of the economically disenfranchised…


The Fed asked respondents how they would pay for a $400 emergency. The answer: 47 percent of respondents said that either they would cover the expense by borrowing or selling something, or they would not be able to come up with the $400 at all. Four hundred dollars! Who knew?

Well, I knew. I knew because I am in that 47 percent.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-28 17:20:18

Don’t blame “the government.” 95% of the electorate bent over for Wall Street water carriers in 2008 and 2012. They’re getting exactly what they voted for.

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Comment by Eddie89
2016-04-28 13:40:21

It’s so bad, that even homes in Compton are going for $400k!

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-28 06:30:43

Even relying on our fake, Soviet-style offical unemployment and inflation data, Yellen is running out of excuses to not normalize interest rates.

http://www.businessinsider.com/initial-jobless-claims-april-28-2016-4

 
Comment by rms
2016-04-28 06:31:31

From the Kentucky piece: “Realtors said the only comparisons are 2005 and 2006, however this time there’s no bubble, the market is healthy.”

No mention of of rising incomes or a new Apple tech campus opening in the area, so it must be that our old friend, Mr. E Z Credit has arrived.

Comment by Dandroidz
2016-04-28 07:57:49

Seriously what’s going on Kentucky? With the DEA crackdowns on meth and pot ops, destruction of the coal economy, I’d think the prices would be collapsing.

 
 
Comment by Oxide
2016-04-28 06:34:24

From the Tampa bay article: why is the market hot, but not for houses over $500k? “What’s going on here?”

Because people can’t make the *fully amortized* monthly payment for a $500k house, you moron realtor. She thinks that there are still low ARM I/O neg-am payments. There aren’t. So prices are driven up only to where the howmuchamonth becomes prohibitive. That threshold appears to be a $500k house.

Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 06:41:31

Howmuchamonth?

Monthly Mortgage: $3700

Monthly Taxes: $300

Monthly Insurance: $200

Monthly Depreciation: $500

$4700/month for a rapidly depreciating asset, which is 2x rental rates, is merely your imaginary threshold.

 
Comment by Combotechie
2016-04-28 06:46:18

“So prices are driven up only to where the howmuchamonth becomes prohibitive.”

A case can be made that it isn’t even that. All that is needed to commit to buying a house is a down payment, once the down payment is made you get stat the process of moving in.

If the down payment is the only payment that is made then so what? An eviction does not occur, the process of an eviction does not occur, several monthly payments need to be missed for the eviction process to occur (if it occurs at all) in the meantime the buyer gets to stay.

And the price that was committed to be paid? What happens to it? Why, there it remains, as lofty as ever.

Amazing times we live in.

Comment by Combotechie
2016-04-28 06:47:27

“get stat” = “get to start”

 
Comment by Oxide
2016-04-28 07:44:45

Down payment may be the only money you need, but it’s not all you need. You also need evidence or proof that you can make that full payment. The bank isn’t looking to see if you can make the $600 interest payment. now the bank looks to see if you can make the $1300 P+I. Suddenly people need to have twice as much income to afford a house that they would have afforded back in 2006. They aren’t getting the mortgage, they don’t get to start the process of moving in, and those houses are sitting, and realtors can’t figure out why.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-28 07:49:21

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9573

‘A recent report by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a federal agency that regulates the nation’s banks, warns that declines in mortgage underwriting standards are mirroring pre-crisis trends.

‘Underwriting standards eased at a significant number of banks for the three-year period from 2013 through 2015,’ the report said. ‘This trend reflects broad trends similar to those experienced from 2005 through 2007, before the most recent financial crisis.’ Not since 2006, it noted, have lenders taken on so much credit risk, and it says the hazard will continue to grow this year: ‘Examiners expect the level of credit risk to increase over the next 12 months.’

‘A large chunk of the risk is coming from first-time home buyers with shaky credit and so-called ‘rebound’ buyers who previously defaulted on home loans. The demand from otherwise ­uncreditworthy home buyers ‘is driving home prices up faster than incomes and inflation,’ noted ­Edward Pinto, co-director of AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk in Washington.’

‘This is especially true in hot spots like California, where subprime-mortgage lenders offering interest-only loans with no FICO-score requirements are cropping up from the ashes of Countrywide Financial, the bankrupt subprime giant.’

‘In another sign housing is overheating, home ‘flipping’ is red hot again and hitting levels not seen since just prior to the mortgage meltdown. Nationwide, almost 180,000 homes were sold and then resold last year — the highest level since 2007. In fact, according to RealtyTrac, flipping in a dozen metro areas — including New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, Miami and Jacksonville, Fla. — exceeded peaks set in 2005.’

‘Like the last bubble, this one is fueled by artificial demand from government-induced lax lending standards and accommodative interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. Today’s relaxation in mortgage-underwriting standards is largely a function of government housing-policy changes at FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which dominate the nation’s mortgage activity. As in the last easy-credit cycle, we are seeing ‘the promotion of policy to push firms to seek riskier products to promote growth,’ Wells Fargo Chief Economist John Silvia said.’

‘All three agencies have slashed down-payment and other requirements under pressure from Obama regulators, who include, most significantly, former Congressional Black Caucus leader and Obama appointee Mel Watt, head of the new Federal Housing Finance Agency, which now controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.’

‘Last year, Fannie Mae launched a new subprime-mortgage product called HomeReady that caters to recent immigrants with weak credit and limited income. The new loan program, which offers ‘income flexibility,’ allows borrowers for the first time to bundle income from roommates and relatives to meet qualifications for income. They only have to put 3% down, and can use gifts from nonprofit groups to subsidize their down payments.’

‘There is no limit on the number of non-borrower household members who can be present on a single transaction,’ Fannie advises originators. And even then there is ’documentation flexibility,’ a frightening echo of last decade’s ‘no-doc loans.’

‘You don’t have to show personal financial independence. You can be maxed out on credit cards and even live in government-subsidized housing. Just as long as you round up enough income-earners and pool ­finances to help meet a debt-to-income ratio of up to 50%. And you don’t need good credit. ‘If the borrower’s credit score is less than the minimum credit score required,’ Fannie tells loan underwriters, ‘the lender may develop an acceptable nontraditional credit profile’ that takes into consideration timely payments on electricity bills and car insurance — and even gym dues — in lieu of payments on credit cards and loans.’

‘Under HomeReady, you can even qualify for a ‘cash-out refinance’ of your mortgage, a type of loan that led to over-leveraging and a wave of defaults during the mortgage crisis.’

‘Why would Fannie offer the same kinds of poorly underwritten loans that forced it into bankruptcy? Because HomeReady aligns ‘with our housing goals’ set by Watt, it says in its Home­Ready literature. It’s all part of a government campaign to ease access to home loans for recent Hispanic immigrants — including those living here illegally. In fact, HomeReady caters to illegal immigrants by allowing borrowers to waive Social Security documentation.’

‘Watt, who as a congressman once demanded Freddie Mac back loans for welfare recipients in his North Carolina district, has instructed Fannie and Freddie to come up with ‘alternative credit-scoring models’ to FICO and approve more home buyers. ‘We have the pedal to the metal’ on adopting a new model, Watt said.’

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-28 07:55:12

‘You also need evidence or proof that you can make that full payment’

You or the thirteen “roommates” you get to pledge they’ll live in the house and pay rent. Or grandma. This thing is so open to fraud you could drive a bus load of strawberry pickers through it. And fraud isn’t really a problem because you don’t even have to lie to get the loan.

‘It’s all part of a government campaign to ease access to home loans for recent Hispanic immigrants — including those living here illegally’

So hypothetically, if I were an illegal immigrant and I hear house prices are going to the moon, what’s to stop me from getting on this little rocket and if things don’t work out, bam, I’m back to Guatemala?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-04-28 09:00:57

So hypothetically, if I were an illegal immigrant and I hear house prices are going to the moon, what’s to stop me from getting on this little rocket and if things don’t work out, bam, I’m back to Guatemala?

More likely Jose Illegal would just conjure up a new identity and stay in the US.

Was reading in the Mexican media how Acapulco is in a state of anarchy and that organized crime operates with impunity, and citizens fear to leave their homes. Who would want to go back to that?

 
Comment by snake charmer
2016-04-28 11:16:24

There are vast swathes of Mexico where the state has no control or influence whatsoever, other than violently competing for a share of the drug trade. I really enjoyed the movie “Sicario,” if for no other reason than the Benicio del Toro character telling Emily Blunt that “you are not a wolf, and this is a land of wolves now.”

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-28 17:23:22

There is a verb in Mexico, “Chingar” meaning to f**k or violate, that has no English equivilant. Either you are the violater or the violated…there is no opt-out clause. Thanks to Comrade Pelosi and the DNC, our whole southwest will soon have the same narco-culture.

 
 
Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 08:00:30

Well not really… not at all. That’s more Realtor Narrative and we all know what that means.

1) Right now there is no net down payment. 3% max down payment with down payment assistance programs everywhere results in bringing zero dollars to closing.

2) The credit profile of borrowers since Post 2008 are equally as poor or worse than those before 2008.

3) I/O borrowers were required to show income to pay the fully amortized payment.

4) Foreclosure moratoriums in effect everywhere.

The common thread? They all paid a 200%-300% premium and doubled down on that loss by financing it.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2016-04-28 11:20:24

It’s about wrong headedness. Nobody in their right mind would buy a $500,000 house (which you pay $1M for actually) or even a $250,000 house when it could be rented for a fraction of that cost. Not when they know the price is going to be flat or down. Not unless half a mil is pocket change. No, for the average person this is the proceeds of three decades of life, right in the prime years. There is only one reason and that is mania.

 
Comment by cactus
2016-04-28 13:02:06

Are they lying about mortgage ratings again? Selling mortgage junk as triple A to banks and Norwegian towns ?

Buying insurance on mortgages for the big payoff when they go bad ?

Maybe they are IDK but it would seem incredible if they could after what just happened.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-04-28 06:34:47

Fair Oaks, CA Housing Affordability Surges As Prices Plunge 13% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/fair-oaks-ca-95628/home-values/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-28 06:39:19

‘Muricans now consume 80% of the world’s painkillers. Exceptionalism!

http://kingworldnews.com/gerald-celente-the-dream-is-dying-as-americans-now-consume-80-of-global-painkillers/

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-28 07:27:26

Was this before or after Prince died?

Comment by palmetto
2016-04-28 11:52:06

OK, now that’s just too funny right there, I don’t care who y’are.

On another note, I have two “friends” (and I’ve had to distance myself from them a bit, unfortunately) who are on “pain management”. Sheesh, it’s really kinda sad to watch, and it’s even more frustrating, because there’s very little you can do to help them. And you can’t trust them anymore. One of them has bad constipation as a result of the side effects, I got tired of hearing about it.

Their whole life more or less revolves around their prescriptions. I don’t want to think what would happen if they were suddenly cut off. I got a taste of it, though, when one of them asked me to help them through withdrawal a few years ago. I did it twice. Never again.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-04-28 12:18:11

“Their whole life more or less revolves around their prescriptions.”

It could be worse, with the ready availability of heroin, meth and synthetic opioids for those who opt to medicate with narcotics.

Source: Prince had opioid medication on him at time of death
By Evan Perez, CNN Justice Reporter
Updated 12:59 PM ET, Thu April 28, 2016

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Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-04-28 12:33:00

The problem with that stuff is how fast you build up a tolerance. Even if you lay off for a while, the tolerance ramps up faster each time. Great for near the end of your life, but if you have more than a couple years to get through things are gonna get ugly.

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Comment by palmetto
2016-04-28 13:19:37

Even at the end of life, it isn’t pretty. My sister used to visit a friend who was dying from cancer and she told me he said, with tears in his eyes, he’d give anything to have a decent bm just once before he died.

When I was helping the one guy withdraw, his body did stuff I didn’t think was possible, no joke. Took me an hour to clean up after one of his more spectacular episodes.

Seriously, there are some “doctors” who deserve a place in hell for what they’ve done.

 
Comment by oxide
2016-04-28 14:56:25

I watched the PBS Frontline show on the heroin epidemic and was scared stiff. Were Americans really suffering in such pain before that, that the only option are these opioids and withdrawal? Now I’m afraid of so much as getting a cavity filled.

 
Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2016-04-28 15:23:25

I saw a TV commercial recently hawking a medication for “opiate induced constipation”. Just looked it up - there are several. Mo’ money for Pfizer, Merck, Roche et al. (Just take some magnesium, fix you right up.)

My patient (dear ol’ Mom) is extremely aggravating when she occasionally indulges in an extra hydrocodone. I understand perfectly why she does, but it’s no fun for me. I’ve had to take them away for a while, and because I don’t want to treat her like a child, I give them back and the cycle repeats.

 
Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2016-04-28 15:36:35

Also, amazing what’s available. Saw this when looking up oxytocin:

Anti-Tolerance Bundle (Also Opiate Potentiators)

Science, Mr. White!

 
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-04-28 15:56:51

“Were Americans really suffering in such pain before that”

I think a lot of it is how isolated we’ve become from each other. Before television, live entertainment was so much more valuable, and everybody played and sang together. People gathered and interacted. Now we stare at screens and read about celebrities, ignoring those around us. Evolution hasn’t had time to catch up, so people fill that big empty hole with drugs.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-04-28 18:20:37

“Great for near the end of your life, but if you have more than a couple years to get through things are gonna get ugly.”

With enough of these drugs flowing through your system, the chances you will have more than a couple of years to get through diminishes considerably.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by inchbyinch
2016-04-28 07:01:56

At the end of “The Big Short”, it is mentioned they changed the euphemism for MBS CDOs, and they started up again in 2015.
wash.rinse.repeat.

Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 07:04:08

They never stopped and never went away.

 
 
Comment by Oxide
2016-04-28 07:06:07

“The buyer will paywhat the house is worth but they aren’t paying any more than the house is worth. that sounds simple and crazy, but there is a time when they would.”

Another moron realtor. There was a time when they would pay more than the house was worth, because the bank ALLOWED them to do that: via interest-only toxic mortgages.

So it appears that reining in Fannie is preventing another real blow-up, at least from regular Joes getting a mortgage. Fannie no longer buys I/Os. So banks don’t originate I/Os. So buyers now have to come up with the full monthly payment Day 1. And they can’t. So they are crowding the low end, ignoring the high end, and not bidding the low up into the high.

Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 07:15:16

Fannie/Freddie/HUD/FHA 3% down payment mortgages on a sketchy appraisal is the definition of toxic mortgage. So instead of banks imploding it’s the GSE’s.

Comment by Oxide
2016-04-28 07:48:55

I said monthly payment, not down payment. *Learn* the difference.

Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 08:03:15

A 3% downpayment mortgage and an I/O mortgage are both toxic. There is no difference.

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Comment by scdave
2016-04-28 08:05:24

+1 Oxide….

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Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 08:19:26

Data my friend.

Sunnyvale, CA Housing Prices Crater 7% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/sunnyvale-ca-94086/home-values/

 
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-04-28 12:34:01

Spanking, my friend.

 
Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 12:38:04

Don’t be a Lola.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-28 07:45:15

‘There was a time when they would pay more than the house was worth’

This is a reference to the past couple of years.

Comment by oxide
2016-04-28 09:03:34

In that case, it would depend on the price range that this Realtor deals in. My theory is that people are bidding a house up to the price point where the monthly PITI is too high.

Let’s take the example of Tampa, where PITI goes over budget at $500K. So theoretically, a buyer could bid up a $250K house to $500K and pay seriously more than it’s worth. Or, they could bid up a $450K house to $500K and pay only a little more than it’s worth. Or, they could pay $500K for a $500K house and pay exactly what it’s worth. But since all they can afford is $500K, they won’t bid that $500K up any higher.

That’s what this veteran realtor is seeing. If he is used to selling $450K houses, he could be entirely correct that people are paying a good value and no more.

Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 09:19:30

“But since all they can afford is $500K”

You’re out in the weeds again Donk.

Considering they’re borrowing 2x-3x the actual worth and then financing it the rest of their lives, they can’t ‘afford’ anything.

Remember….. If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, you can’t afford it nor is it affordable.

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Comment by Lurker
2016-04-28 10:53:05

Bank loans are so last year. From P2P lender SoFi:

“Put as little as 15% down on mortgages up to $3 million. Pay just interest for the first 10 years of the 40-year 7/1 ARM* loan.”

Let me repeat: TEN year interest only. On a FORTY year loan. ADJUSTABLE RATE. Up to $3 MILLION DOLLARS.

It’s not only worse than last time - it’s exponentially worse.

https://www.sofi.com/mortgage-loan/interest-only-mortgage/

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-04-28 07:07:51

Cypress, CA Housing Affordability Improves As Prices Crater 7% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/cypress-ca-90630/home-values/

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-04-28 07:14:19

“Lucy Clark has been on the hunt for a new home for about a month. However, she said houses are flying off the market. ‘It definitely seems crazier than it was when I bought a home three years ago,’ said Clark.”

For starters, it seems kind of crazy to be in the market for a new home three years after the last purchase, unless perhaps the buyer accidentally discovered an oil well on her property. In typical fashion, the journalist breezes past this detail as though such behavior is perfectly normal.

 
Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 07:25:05
 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-04-28 07:34:11

I found more details on those auction houses in my area I have been looking at. The price history shows they were for sale at those prices for many many months. I am thinking something hugely wrong with the houses or the soil they sit on.

I am looking at Centerpointe in Irvine. I need some space but like the convenience of large apartment complexes and prompt maintenance. The problem is the rent is twice the amount I am paying now on a one bedroom. The two bedroom units in my complex are $700 more than what I am paying, but 400 fewer square feet than Centerpointe.

Save, save, save.

Comment by cactus
2016-04-28 13:11:12

I am thinking something hugely wrong with the houses or the soil they sit on. ”

Your insurance company might be able to give you insight on soil and flooding problems, fire hazard etc. Ask for a quote.

 
Comment by inchbyinch
2016-04-28 16:01:36

The Selfish Hoarder
Those nice REIT Apts have ridiculous rents. I am looking for my divorcing sister and her two kids, and I am seeing $1,800-$2,700 a month (2+2) in the San Fernando Valley. That’s insane.

Some of the units might be designated LIHTC. Good question to ask. The froth paying tenants are making up some of the delta.

 
 
Comment by Dandroidz
2016-04-28 08:01:32

I just looked up the cost of a 150 yr old house in my town north of Boston. Nice looking home, but the description had the typical rubbish “new hardwood, granite counters, backsplash, and SS appliances!!” They bought the house for $289,000 in January, and its now listed for $389,000. What a joke.

Comment by homie
2016-04-28 08:08:48

Try looking in Arlington, Newton, Belmont, Lexington, Winchester, Needham, Wellesley, etc., where tear-downs go for at least $500K.

Comment by Dandroidz
2016-04-28 08:22:15

I believe it. I grew up military and lived in reasonable areas, I was shocked to see people throwing down $300-500k only to tear down the house in greater Boston. I was used to brand new homes for sub-$200 throughout my life.

Comment by cactus
2016-04-28 13:18:04

I was used to brand new homes for sub-$200 throughout my life.”

Wages have not keep up with the costs it’s a dysfunctional future we live in now.

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Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-04-28 08:02:20

Sweet! Buy Bitcoin insantly with your fiat debit
https://news.bitcoin.com/coinbase-instant-buy-bitcoin-debit-card/

Get the Shift Payments debit card and spend Bitcoin instantly.

https://www.shiftpayments.com

vacate fiat, empty the banks and starve the war mongers.

Comment by Dandroidz
2016-04-28 08:26:06

Until they draft me and my friends into their banker war…

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-04-28 08:42:43

‘The Bank of Japan just shocked the markets. Investors around the world were hoping for more stimulus. Instead, they got the worst news possible: “helicopter money” is illegal in Japan—meaning the BOJ won’t be directly funding the Japanese government.’

IIRC they have been buying stocks and bonds with created money for years.

Comment by Dandroidz
2016-04-28 08:57:58

Hasn’t it been reported that the BoJ owns 90% of Japanese stocks now? Very believable given the decades long QE programs.

 
 
Comment by cactus
2016-04-28 09:04:08

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-going-suck-next-10-230100468.html

“The market is going to suck for the next 20 years, and you’re going to have to double your life savings”

No wonder pension funds are reaching for yield.

Comment by rj chicago
2016-04-28 11:42:32

And this….

by Gina Chon

WASHINGTON, April 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) - That’s a scenario laid out in a new McKinsey Global Institute report. The idea is that returns in recent decades - and expectations that are still above 7 pct - have been inflated by effects that are now disappearing. If so, Gen Xers will retire even poorer than they expect.

- The McKinsey Global Institute on April 28 released a report called “Diminishing returns: Why investors may need to lower their expectations.” The report finds that the last 30 years represented a golden age for investors, with returns from stocks and bonds in the United States coming in higher than the 100-year average.

- Many of the trends that drove such performance, such as sharp declines in interest rates, are fading or disappearing, the report said. That means investment returns for the next 20 years will be lower. Under a slow-growth scenario, return on equities could average 4 percent to 5 percent, more than 250 basis points lower than the 1985 to 2014 average, the report finds. As a result, pension plans could face even bigger funding gaps while 401(k) retirement plans will suffer from diminished returns. To make up for a 2 percentage-point difference in average returns, a 30-year-old today would have to work seven years longer, the report said.

- Separately, the U.S. Commerce Department reported on April 28 that U.S. GDP grew at a 0.5 percent rate in the first quarter of 2016, the slowest pace in two years.

- McKinsey report: http://bit.ly/1TylGOZ

- GDP statement: http://1.usa.gov/1pJERdX

- Reuters: U.S. economy stalls in first quarter as activity weakens broadly

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-04-28 12:02:22

“Under a slow-growth scenario…”

Actually, to get to sustainability a lot of bubble “investments” will get wiped off the books. Consider a protracted contraction scenario.

Comment by cactus
2016-04-28 13:21:57

Actually, to get to sustainability a lot of bubble “investments” will get wiped off the books. Consider a protracted contraction scenario.”

And that’s why the FED prints money all day long.. to delay the doomsday scenario.

or they could raise wages..

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Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 13:44:14

Do you really think wages are going to magically triple or quadruple to meet grossly inflated prices?

Of course not.

Prices will continue falling until they meet wages.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-04-28 09:29:17

Conifer, CO Housing Affordability Grows As Housing Prices Plunge 17% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/conifer-co/home-values/

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2016-04-28 09:50:49

Greetings from beautiful Rio de Janeiro!

Brazil today: Impeachment, massive corruption charges against 60% of congress, commodity busts everywhere, droughts, “biblical plagues” but it’s exactly as I thought. Unlike USA’s bust, the RENTERS here getting hammered while the maybe 70% who own their homes outright are much better off and are having to save their renting relatives from living on the streets. And there has been no “crash”. Just a slow trend downward just recently even after 2 years of depression - no explosion of listings in the nice areas. After all, who would want to sell their homes in the middle of a depression? And go where?

As I said all along, It’s different here. ;)

It’s not a pretty picture, in fact it’s ugly, but it’s amazing to me how this country stays together in the face of multiple crisis of “biblical” proportions.

Brazil Is Suffering An Almost Biblical Tidal Wave Of Plagues Right Now

http://dailycaller.com/2016/04/27/brazil-is-suffering-an-almost-biblical-tidal-wave-of-plagues-right-now/#ixzz478livooL

Brazil has had one of the worst years ever when it comes to diseases, as the politically unstable country has dealt with the Zika virus, dengue fever, and now swine flu.

Comment by snake charmer
2016-04-28 11:22:37

I read in the paper the story about the lower house of the Brazilian legislature impeaching Dilma on corruption charges, when more than half of the legislators, including some of the leaders of the impeachment effort, themselves are accused of corruption. I also listened to a little bit of Greenwald’s interview with Lula, who suggests there is a de facto coup in progress. You can’t make this stuff up!

And then there’s the bike path collapse. The paper made that one seem especially tragic, with corpses lying covered on the beach for hours while people played pickup soccer nearby.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2016-04-28 12:30:27

And then there’s the bike path collapse.

Almost a full moon, high tide and maybe shoddy construction with the plans not taking into account rising sea levels.

I’ve been by that bike path a hundred times. It’s in a very precarious spot.

Greenwald’s interview with Lula, who suggests there is a de facto coup in progress. You can’t make this stuff up!

There good case for his position.

Google: “Brazilian coup”

The “Speaker of the House” Cunha (3rd in line for the presidency) who led the impeachment hearings is as corrupt as they come and the vice president faces the same charge as the impeached president.

To See the Real Story in Brazil, Look at Who Is Being Installed as President — and Finance Chiefs

https://theintercept.com/2016/04/22/to-see-the-real-story-in-brazil-look-at-who-is-being-installed-as-president-and-finance-chiefs/

…It’s not easy for outsiders to sort through all the competing claims about Brazil’s political crisis and the ongoing effort to oust its president, Dilma Rousseff, who won re-election a mere 18 months ago with 54 million votes. But the most important means for understanding the truly anti-democratic nature of what’s taking place is to look at the person whom Brazilian oligarchs and their media organs are trying to install as president: the corruption-tainted, deeply unpopular, oligarch-serving Vice President Michel Temer (above). Doing so shines a bright light on what’s really going on, and why the world should be deeply disturbed.

….The person who is third in line to the presidency, right behind Temer, has been exposed as shamelessly corrupt: the evangelical zealot and House speaker Eduardo Cunha. He’s the one who spearheaded the impeachment proceedings even though he got caught last year squirreling away millions of dollars in bribes in Swiss bank accounts, after having lied to Congress when falsely denying that he had any accounts in foreign banks.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2016-04-28 13:08:52

with corpses lying covered on the beach for hours while people played pickup soccer nearby.

Well, that’s sad but very Brazilian, Latin, Catholic or whatever. This is not a Protestant or even a Catholic country run right. And it’s a country used to death, suffering and dying at a much higher level than the United States. And now it’s bad here. They can compartmentalize and separate death from a day at the beach. Maybe they have to. Sometimes it’s all too much for them.

In many senses it’s a country that combines fatalistic spirituality, the need to be happy in a sh!tty system and the needs of reality.

Thus pickup soccer in view of covered corpses.

 
 
Comment by cactus
2016-04-28 13:24:20

After all, who would want to sell their homes in the middle of a depression? And go where?

As I said all along, It’s different here. ;)

why are renters getting hammered ? rents going up ?

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2016-04-28 13:38:23

why are renters getting hammered ? rents going up ?

Most everyone is getting hit hard but, renters in Brazil are getting hammered harder relative to homeowners in Brazil because.

1. Most homeowners in Brazil own their home outright so they don’t face the monthly cost of renting which is much higher than the cost of maintaining and the taxes on a paid-off home.

2. I actually know many renters now that are being evicted and/or are not going to be able to cover their rent in May and June.

3. Jobs are being lost and income is being severely reduced. Not having to worry about making the rent is a huge mental and financial advantage. This is serious stuff going on here. I’d say much more serious than USA in 08-09 but it’s still is different here in regards to the rate of outright home ownership which is very high relative to USA now and then.

Comment by snake charmer
2016-04-28 14:47:52

I’ve read about favelas being demolished because they are near Olympic venues, notwithstanding the residents’ ownership of the houses, which they built themselves years or sometimes decades earlier. And while the government promises to relocate the residents, the new housing is so far away from anything, especially for people who don’t own a car, that it might as well be in Siberia.

On another subject, I also see that few of the expensive new 2014 World Cup stadia are being used. The one in Cuiaba allegedly had homeless people living in the locker rooms! And the stadium in Brasilia is being used as a bus parking lot.

http://www.businessinsider.com/brazil-world-cup-stadiums-one-year-later-2015-5

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2016-04-28 16:14:38

I’ve read about favelas being demolished because they are near Olympic venues,

Shocker. It’s sad but the thing about favelas is the land was free because it was illegal and the utilities were free because they tap into legal lines. A lot of those removed guys made bank too. Cash. Not that I’m for it, but I guess Brazilians follow Trump’s ideas on eminent domain.

I also see that few of the expensive new 2014 World Cup stadia are being used.

I read that would happen back in 2011. Too many stadiums and FIFA is criminal. Combine FIFA with Brazil and there you go.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2016-04-28 10:23:17

The other main point I’ve always said about Brazil, is that the social gains Brazilians have achieved the past 15 years would protect them from their Brazilian starvation and malnutrition problems of the past during downturns and that’s exactly what’s happening. Very few Brazilians are starving now which might be a real factor of why there is not violence in the streets.

Another thing that needs to be understood is that the Brazilian “left-wing” government has little to do with the massive corruption charges against 60% of congress (right more than left), commodity busts everywhere, droughts, and “biblical plagues”. And both sides here are as corrupt as the other. But the independent justice departments are starting to put some real big-wigs in jail. (Unlike the USA.)

And austerity does not work anywhere:

“Economists say the Brazilian government has only made life harder for poor and middle-class citizens during the crisis by adopting austerity measures and raising taxes. Meanwhile, corruption scandals racking Brazil’s Congress and an ongoing bid to impeach President Dilma Rousseff have prevented leaders from repairing the nation’s chaotic economy.” ibtimes dot com

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-04-28 10:27:27

A BIG, FAT mistake.

Speaking of big fat mistakes, Dennis Hastert for prison. What a POS. Unfortunately, from what I’ve been reading and hearing since the Bush regimes, perverts like Hastert are common among the DC crowd. On both sides of the aisle.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-04-28 12:39:38

I was really shocked they actually put him in jail. I doubt if he lives through his sentence. Less than he deserves but at least it’s something.

Comment by palmetto
2016-04-28 13:24:38

heh, I was slightly surprised myself, and I think they almost didn’t, until some more victims came forward. Then they had to do something, if only for show.

I agree with you, though. Bet he does a Ken Lay.

 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-04-28 10:41:06

“The U.S. Homeownership Rate Falls Again, Nearing a 48-Year Low”

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/04/28/u-s-homeownership-rate-falls-again-nearing-a-48-year-low/

Why buy it when you can rent it for half the monthly cost?

Comment by Dandroidz
2016-04-28 11:56:04

Or live at home until youre 30. Isnt that how the Chinese can now afford to buy up our real estate in cash? Decades of family unit living, instead of our, 18 yrs old and go out on your own to learn life method?

Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 12:00:29

“Isnt that how the Chinese can now afford to buy up our real estate”

It’s a convenient narrative but there isn’t an ounce of truth to it.

US Housing Demand Plummets To 20 Year Low

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-yX5B5Hn95bQ/VYC3Wr6ihBI/AAAAAAAAj7I/alOslZa-cK8/s1600/MBAJune172015.PNG

 
Comment by cactus
2016-04-28 13:30:50

My Chinese co-worker tells me Chinese don’t take care of their homes like Americans do which is why they want to buy new every 10 years.

Says after 10 years the home is trashed. IDK is it true?

Comment by redmondjp
2016-04-28 14:14:44

I don’t know, but I’m watching the 2003-built McMansions down the street from me decay away, as the owners have done zero exterior building envelope maintenance whatsoever thus far (not even paint).

Within the next ten years, they will be looking at exterior siding and trim replacement (not easy on two-story homes where they will have to use ladder jacks and/or scaffolding to get to the upper areas).

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-04-28 16:59:26

I think it has more to do with the select few of them exploiting the hell out of the rest.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-04-28 18:22:26

How can prices keep spiraling upward, even as home ownership rates dwindle to half-century lows?

Sounds to me like the death of another bubble is at hand.

 
 
Comment by inchbyinch
2016-04-28 11:44:51

“Why buy it when you can rent it for half the monthly cost?”

Depends on the cost to enter the market. Unless your have inflation adjusted cash flow, by the time you’re old, you need a paid off home. Renting until the numbers work for you is smart, but being a lifetime renter will not work for most people. In So Ca rents are very high. Senior LIHTC apts have a waiting list.

In the tween time wait for this house, we rented, and every year, the rent ticked up. No thanks, I like owning.

Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 11:48:35

Paying double the monthly rental rates results in MTPockets.

 
 
Comment by rj chicago
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-04-28 12:06:12

Miami, FL Housing Affordability Improves; Prices Crater 6% YoY As Foreign Speculators Dump Properties

http://www.zillow.com/miami-beach-fl/home-values/

 
Comment by rj chicago
2016-04-28 13:41:44

FWIW…..
We are not alone - Italy mo bankrupt than most.

http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/italy

 
Comment by rj chicago
2016-04-28 13:45:31

This has some interesting thingys to click on regarding historic UE rates and UE rates around the world.

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

 
Comment by rj chicago
2016-04-28 13:47:19

And this - with some historic debt clock buttons……

http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock

 
Comment by rj chicago
2016-04-28 13:51:46

And the daddy of ‘em all….this is a fun one to play around with…..

http://www.usdebtclock.org/#

 
Comment by Justme
2016-04-28 14:11:31

About the Amazon 2016-04-28 q1 earnings report:

Special focus is on AWS (Amazon Web Services), hailed by wall st as the high-margin savior
of Amazon’s low margin retail business. How well is AWS doing? Q1/2016 versus Q4/2015:

AWS revenue, q4/q1
% 2566/2405
1.06694386694387

profit margin q4/2015
% 687/2405
0.285654885654886

profit margin q1/2016
% 604/2566
0.235385814497272

AWS Profit margin dropped from 28.6% to 23.5%. or 5.1 percentage
points. Not pretty. Once people figure this out, the after hours pop in
the stock price will reverse.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-04-28 19:20:16

AWS is a godsend for the business I am in.

Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-28 19:58:44

Give up on your atheism?

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-28 17:45:08

Venezuelans elected socialists who promised redistribution of the wealth. The productive got fed up with involuntarily giving up the fruits of their labor to the freeloaders, so they stopped producing. Now everybody is poor except for the socialist kleptocrats and criminal gangs. Meet your future under our coming permanent Democrat Supermajority.

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-04-28 18:11:04

“Meet your future under our coming permanent Democrat Supermajority.”

I think we’re going to pull back from the brink.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-04-28 18:02:08

Is there any Democrat-run urban center that is not a dystopian hub of corruption, malgovernance, and vice?

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/nov/02/hub-human-trafficking-underground-sex-trade-milwaukee

 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2016-04-28 21:49:47

This is out in BFE Maine:

https://maine.craigslist.org/reo/5522181427.html

I don’t know. What could the land be worth?

Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-29 04:18:49

A couple grand maybe? If that.

 
 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2016-04-28 22:02:39

The only draw on this house for the price is it gets you in a good school district. Other than that, no back yard really. Pretty sterile looking place:

https://maine.craigslist.org/reb/5560557785.html

Comment by Happy Humphrey
2016-04-29 04:25:06

It’s double construction cost (lot labor materials and profit) so not much of a good idea there.

 
 
 
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