An Imbalance That Works In Favor Of Special Interest Groups
A weekend look at housing supply and demand starting with the Lincoln County Journal. “We keep hearing how low inventory is in today’s housing market, but why is that the case? New Construction– Though housing starts were up 12.4 percent in 2015’s first quarter, homebuilders are constructing new single-family homes at a 680,000 annual rate, which is roughly 400,000 units below historic averages. So all builders have to do is up their construction and our inventory problems will be solved, right? Well…not necessarily.”
“The relatively low rate of new construction is a common target of industry analysts (NAR has especially harped on that point), but we think the problem is more insidious than that, and for a number of reasons. For one, new construction has responded to consumer demand and shifted towards multifamily developments in a major way, with 90 percent of those units being intended for rentals; so new construction is higher, but it’s not as top-heavy for single family as it used to be.”
“Two, the vacancy rate for new single-family homes remains historically high, so builders are keeping their construction numbers in check (indeed, some have argued that today’s level of construction is even too high).”
“And three, the new construction that does make its way to the market, on both the buying and renting side, is intended almost solely for more affluent consumers (and is therefore unaffordable to most consumers). Why? Simply, builders are limiting their products for safer terrain, aka the more affluent consumers who can absolutely buy what they are offering. So yes, new construction is low by historic standards, but for very precise (and deliberate) reasons.”
“Exclusionary Inventory – Finally, even when housing inventory has increased, it has not done so in an equal manner. In the first seven months of 2014, housing inventory jumped 18.5 percent over 2013; yet, according to a Redfin study of that increase, those gains were exclusively for higher-priced listings. So while the inventory of homes priced $549,800 and above rose 15.6 percent, the inventory for homes priced $227,500 and below fell 15.7 percent.”
From Quartz. “Across the country a wave of dual-income couples and down-sizing baby-boomers are skipping home ownership and choosing apartment living instead. Meanwhile, other renters—who have a median household income less than half that of homeowners—are finding that fewer and fewer homes fit their budget. Developers have responded by flooding the market with new apartments—nearly 250,000 were completed in 2015 alone.”
“However, those who hope the building boom will provide shelter for the huddled masses are in for a nasty surprise: Three out of every four new apartment buildings are luxury designs targeted at high-end renters. Housing data compiled by RentCafe, a rental search company, track completion of all new apartment buildings with 50 or more units. These buildings are graded based on presentation and amenities. The top two grades are classified as ‘luxury,’ indicating that they are primarily targeted at those who choose to rent, even though they could afford to buy. Last year there were 895 such buildings completed in the US, up 134% from 2012.”
From Bloomberg. “Central banks may be partially to blame for the misperception that economic conditions will be materially better than they are now when inflation is higher, contends Citigroup Inc. Global Head of G10 FX Strategy Steven Englander. To the extent that this true, it probably has much to do with the increased emphasis the Fed has placed on the wealth effect as part of the transition mechanism by which unconventional accommodation boosted activity when policy rates approached zero.”
“Asset price inflation, improving Americans’ aggregate net wealth in the process, has been an explicit goal of Fed policy.”
“This combination of low interest rates and large-scale asset purchases laid a solid foundation for the improvement of household balance sheets that occurred during the recovery. But it can’t do much to spur a higher trend rate for real growth. ‘It may be more accurate to say that the economy at 2 percent inflation will be as good as it gets, but as-good-as-it-gets may be very mediocre,’ Englander concludes. ‘Expectations of currency strength and asset market stability are likely exaggerated as well.’”
The American Enterprise Institute. “If anything, this election cycle has revealed the anger and frustration on both sides of the aisle with an economic and political system that many view as rigged. Maybe nowhere more so than in the housing finance ’system’ do the people have a point. After all, the deck is stacked against low- and moderate-income borrowers due to to rent-seeking behavior of special interest groups such as the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which government loan guarantee agencies and regulators are all too willing to accommodate.”
“The resulting loans enable borrowers to buy more expensive homes than they can truly afford, typically through minimal downpayments, underpriced mortgage insurance, or monthly payments too high in comparison to the borrower’s income. These various forms of excessive leverage continually set the little guy up for failure.”
“The fundamental problem in today’s government-centric housing finance system is a supply-demand imbalance that works in favor of homeowners who see their assets appreciate faster than wages and inflation. According to S&P/Case-Shiller, house prices are now over 30% higher than four years ago.”
“Who else benefits from higher prices? Realtors. That is why the NAR, whose sole mission is to ‘help its members become more profitable and successful,’ keeps pushing for even more demand against a constrained supply, which will ultimately drive prices even higher and make commission checks even fatter.”
“Who benefits from more demand? The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) — which is in the business of providing loans to primarily lower-income borrowers — was able to overcome its chronic funding shortfall by expanding demand through a mortgage premium cut that not only drew in new borrowers by providing them with more leverage, but also poached from other agencies.”
From Reuters. “Conventional wisdom maintains that the bubble in UK home prices is due to inadequate supply. Conventional wisdom is wrong. Despite tough British planning laws, the shortage of housing across the country is not acute. Overvaluation is largely the result of ultra-low interest rates. London property prices have also been boosted by foreign capital inflows. Low interest rates may be with us for a while. Global capital flows, however, are prone to sudden reversals.”
“A better explanation for high house prices is that interest rates are incredibly low. Over the last 15 years, falling interest rates have reduced the cost of buying a house with borrowed money. Land and home prices have climbed. This all suggests that Britain’s housing crisis is largely the consequence of the extreme affordability of mortgages. This conclusion is confirmed by the behavior of other housing markets around the world where interest rates are also at abnormally low levels.”
The New Zealand Herald. “Government ministers seldom lose an opportunity to lambast Auckland Council, as Housing Minister Nick Smith did again at the weekend, for inhibiting residential development in and around the city. It is convenient for the Government to attribute the price of houses entirely to a lack of supply because it enables it to avoid taking effective action to reduce demand for investment homes. It is an argument that makes the Government popular with home owners who have already invested heavily in multiple houses, for it not only relieves them of effective taxation but promises to supply Auckland with many more potential investment properties.”
“The pace of house price rises cannot be slowed just by building more houses, particularly more ‘affordable’ houses. Those are exactly the stock investors are looking for. The cheaper the house for its location, the better the likely capital gain. There is no limit to the demand for speculative property in and around Auckland, and making more land and housing available will only add more fuel to the fire.”
“Obviously Auckland’s projected population growth requires a much greater rate of house building than we have yet seen. But the problem does require a multi-pronged solution. Whatever the source of the demand for Auckland houses, it will remain insatiable if the Government pretends it is purely a problem of supply.”
Fitchburg, MA Housing Affordability Improves As Prices Sink 5% YoY; Statewide Median Falls YoY
http://www.movoto.com/fitchburg-ma/market-trends/
‘The 2015 housing market was a good one. 2016 is proving to be even better. Demand for homes is outpacing supply and mortgage rates have started the year in a downward spiral. Furthermore, nationwide, unadjusted home values have surpassed last decade’s peak.’
‘Multiple-offer situations are common and homes are selling quickly.’
‘If you’ve been in the market for a home, no doubt you’ve noticed. It’s a competitive market and putting your best foot forward is essential if you want to “get the house”.
‘The good news is that mortgage approvals are getting simpler.’
‘In addition to reducing their loan approval standards, mortgage lenders have recently lowered minimum credit score requirements, made concessions for self-employed income, and granted leniency on loans which “make sense”.
‘Furthermore, there are more low- and no-down payment loans available than during any period this decade.’
‘In addition to the Conventional 97 program and HomeReady™ programs, which are backed by Fannie Mae and require just 3% down, demand for the FHA 96.5% LTV program is high, as are requests for “piggyback loans”.
‘The 80/10/10 piggyback loan has been in high demand of late, and buyers are finding the Fannie Mae HomeReady™ home loan to be a worthwhile alternative to FHA lending.’
‘There are also the VA and USDA loan programs — both of which allow 100% financing.’
‘VA loans are available to eligible active-duty military personnel, veterans of the armed services, members of the national guard and reserves, and surviving spouses. They are optionally no money down and require no mortgage insurance.’
‘USDA loans are also no money down, backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. USDA loans can be used in many rural and suburban areas nationwide.’
‘USDA mortgage rates are typically the lowest of all government-backed loans, and mortgage insurance rates are minuscule compared to other low-downpayment programs.’
‘With home prices expected to rise through the end of 2016, the availability of low- and no-downpayment mortgages will be a boon to U.S. buyers — especially if current mortgage rates remain low.’
‘The math for “Should I rent or should I buy?” has shifted and this month’s housing starts data reflects that.’
‘It’s an excellent time to shop for a home.’
Let’s look at this:
‘The math for “Should I rent or should I buy”
Do you suppose Mel Watt really is unaware that almost every apartment loan he is guaranteeing is luxury?
Push button, get mortgage.
What else do you need to know?
“Push button, get mortgage.”
I like it. I can close my bank building, fire all my employees, and replace it all with a vending machine.
Hilary will give them paid leave
Be careful not to kill off the host, Mr. Banker.
We’re a little past that….
It’s fine to kill off any number of current hosts, as there is a virtually limitless supply of plankton available to qualify as the next generation of subprime-funded hosts.
Houston, do you, like foreclosures?
All the more it makes me happy and thankful my rent is under 15% of my salary and compensation, and it is a fifteen minute drive to my office, a cool corner office with a view of traffic headed to Irvine Spectrum.
Me too, except I own my house. I get a nice interest deduction and my house payment is 25% cheaper than rent.
^More digital deciept.
Your interest deduction is nice until it’s not there, meanwhile you are paying double for a decaying stucco box by paying interest for 15 to 30 years. Oh it’s not decaying? Then you are paying 2 and a half times because you are adding maintenance to the amount.
What? You seem confused. My PITI is $500/month less than the property rent. I bought it from BofA in 2010 for a great price.
I own it.
My interest rate is 3.25% $600/month is principle reduction. It could sell for $250,000 more than I paid.
Sometimes buying a home is a great economic investment. It seems like you need a little of the crow Ben likes to offer!
Doubtful
All of these measures to loosen credit serve to decouple home purchase budgets from household incomes, creating a glut of transient false demand for luxury homes which are far too expensive for most buyers to afford without the subprime lending crutch.
Yeah, but think of all the wealth that magically gets generated.
If you are one to limit your thinking that generating wealth is actually producing something useful rather than thinking of generating wealth as increasing the prices of things that have already been produced then you are definitely Old School and thus are subject to some re-schooling. Painful re-schooling.
We have entered a New Era, a New Era Of Endless Financial Miracles and those who get this will get aboard this Miracle and those who do not get this will be left behind.
Combotechie: If you are one to limit your thinking that generating wealth is actually producing something useful rather than thinking of generating wealth as increasing the prices of things that have already been produced
It’s interesting to think about what exactly currency is, and how the central bank and government’s policies net results are.
I’ve heard currency referred to as a ‘claim on wealth’. I don’t think it’s completely accurate (technically, a person doesn’t have to sell to any individual, as limited by law, but he almost always will, and sometimes does have to sell as directed by law and anti-discrimination statutes), but it is a pretty good way of thinking about currency.
Like, if an economy contains 10 people, with a king (who prints the money) and workers. The workers generate goods and services. The king prints up a little extra for his right-hand man. That gives the right-hand man (RHM) more of an advantage in obtaining goods and services. And disadvantages the rest of the members of the economy.
Similarly, with the Fed’s QE program, in which it prints money, there are those who receive a disproportionate portion of the largesse (the king’s right-hand-men). Ditto with government deficit spending financed by central bank purchases of government debt. Thus disadvantaging the rest of the population.
Or how much would get raptured if the Fed ever made good on its announced liftoff plans…
Jawboning about a mythical rate rise should not be confused with actual plans. Yellen the Felon has no intention of normalizing rates no matter what the “data” or her flying monkeys say.
Some misleading info in the article on “VA Loans” the VA does not make loans, it guarantees them and in effect IS mortgage insurance…a conventional lender makes the loan and the VA program will cover up to a 20% loss to the lender if the borrower defaults and the sale of the property does not cover the debt. (I’m a veteran and bought a house with a GI Bill loan…and paid it off in full when I sold)
They are all backed; VA, USDA, Fannie, Freddie. People call them that all the time. If the GSE’s had to do something like actually make loans, they would lose even more billions than they are.
i have so much money left after ‘throwing money away on rent’ every month that i don’t know where to throw it.
I throw mine into Roths. Still got money leftover over from that so I throw it into precious metals and crypto currency.
Selfish, what percent of your net worth are you putting into crypto, and how do you intend to use the currency - booking vacations, online auctions, etc? I’ve only read up on consensus algorithms and havent looked into who accepts what in any detail. TIA.
Right now it is about one half of one percent of my net worth. I know some enthusiasts who make day trades between cryptocurrencies. I regard crypto currencies as a savings vehicle in an asset far stronger than the Dollar and as a way to vote against imperialism and against wars. I am not in it to get wealthy.
I am using Crypto NOW to buy food and gas. I can use it on Expedia. I will start using it on Amazon since I am a frequent customer. I will get up to 15% discount using Bitcoin on Amazon using Purse.
.5%? There’s a real vote of confidence.
Why no,
It is recommended even in the crypto community.
You will be (”gasp!”) horrified to know that the open source software git repositories put out warnings that the latest untagged clone is unstable and use at your own risk.
Are you 100% into precious metals? No? Good grief no confidence.
I am 8% into precious metals. 10% is the recommended asset allocation even by the Kitco.com folks.
Are you 100% into stocks? If you are in your twenties maybe you should be 95% into stocks but no one should be 100% into anything. You need savings as well.
.5%? There’s a real vote of confidence.
Again, crypto currency is not an investment. It’s savings. 0.5% is not a huge distance away from 5%, which is the amount I have in fiat and T-bills right now.
I’m shifting back out of T-bills starting at the end of June and am adding to limits on stocks. More and more stocks are down 40% - some of them established and good large companies.
I’m shifting back out of T-bills starting at the end of June
Why are you shifting out of T-bills, Bill? Just re-balancing?
I am getting antsy about having too much in U.S. treasuries. My T bills are not even a third of what I got in US Treasuries. However by moving them into cash in my brokerage it is not much different. It’s still in U.S. But I want to place more buy limits on what could be deals of the decade coming up on some stocks.
Look at Toyota, Apple, and a bunch of others lately. Down by 40% or more. I think they are canaries in the coal mine and some great buying opportunity is in store.
I have not yet used Purse.io. But it works this way: You have to be a member of amazon.com. Create a wish list on Amazon.com, then make it public, and add your shipping address (could be your office and I highly recommend it for your own safety), then allow 3rd party shipping. Copy the URL of the wish list into a text box on purse.io. You then have an adjustable tab. I read on Reddit that if you push it to 50% you are unrealistic. So I would try for a 25% discount.
I will try this on small items $15 to $30 first. See how it goes, then I might order $300 items on it.
You pay in bitcoin and the third party shippers get some bitcoin out of it. You could also earn bitcoin by becoming a 3rd party shipper.
Read the disclaimers on the web first.
Thanks for the info. I guess you buy a card with crypto and use the card for food and gas purchases? Interdasting.
To me the real attraction of crypto is a currency amongst trusted participants outside of government control. I think the number of people interested in getting outside of the govt noose will only increase as more problems in this and other nations become apparent. The people with sub 90 IQs will forever believe in FRNs and go after those that have left the reservation, so you could end up being too smart by half if you go all in with crypto.
In my analysis of blockchain, I came to the conclusion that the developer was not a single person - there had to be a team of brilliant people who were able to synthesize the various advancements developed over the past several decades necessary to devise blockchain. I have not been able to guess who the developers were or their motivations as of yet.
That guy named Wright claims to be Satoshi. One big name guy believes him but lots of the community do not believe him.
Actually I don’t think it is a great idea to announce if you are Satoshi. That could get you executed, even if it would not kill Bitcoin it would be revenge by the bankers.
You might be right. Or Hal Finney could have been the real Satoshi. Hal Finney passed away a few years ago but w one of the early pioneers. I have studied some of his work on the TPM and have reproduced what he did, because some of it was unpublished. I used some notes he wrote on some user group.
Be aware there are two main ways to get into crypto currency (other than mining): Bitoin ATM machines (I have yet to mind a machine that is working) or by establishing an account with a third party application that can make ACH translations from your bank and store it in a wallet they created for you. The nie thing about it is that some applications work with your iPad or smartphone camera and you can use the camera to scan a QR code and immediately make a transaction. I have another online wallet from a different app and I can have my coinbase app on my iPad scan my other wlet’s QR code on my smartphone and transfer BTC. I also have offline wallets and can simply transfer Bitcoin to them. But I primarily add to my Bitcoin by transferring fiat from my bank to my main App. My shift debit card is associated with my coinbase app. My shift card can be used anywhere a Visa can be used. Other than rent, most of my expenses are paid with Bitcoin, I would rent with Bitcoin, Litecoin, or ether if I could.
Anyone discussing “FRNs” is not living in reality.
I’m starting to think that people who talk about IQ on the internet are mostly jerks.
‘Cherry Creek is one of Denver ’s most popular residential neighborhoods, coveted for its picturesque landscaping, walkability and proximity to downtown. Not surprisingly, due to low housing inventory and high prices, this high-end neighborhood is also known to have one of the toughest real estate markets in the city.’
‘Nate Postlethwait with LIV Sotheby’s International Realty says, “There are many pockets of Cherry Creek that still prove to be great investments at or under the $500,000 mark. You have to watch these closely, as they tend to have multiple and immediate offers.”
‘Despite the fact that Denver is currently a seller’s market, more than 20 percent of offers fall out of contract. Susie Best, with the Porch Light Real Estate Group, specializes in helping first-time buyers find their first home, she says it’s about “understanding what the seller’s fears are and trying to alleviate those.”
“It’s a competitive market and it’s common [for sellers] to get 20-plus offers on the first day. We advise clients not to work with sloppy offers,” says Aaron Lebovic, with Keller Williams Real Estate. He encourages clients to pique a seller’s interest by offering to cover the appraisal gap, and buyers should be prepared to offer “$5,000 to $10,000 more than the listing price,” and also promise “$5,000 to $10,000 over the appraised value to make the offer more attractive.”
‘Postlethwait agrees. “If you write an offer, go all in on your first offer. Do not risk a lower offer and anticipate a counter. There will be others waiting behind you,” he emphasizes.’
‘In order to feel comfortable with such creative pricing tactics, Best reminds first-time buyers to “make sure they get pre-approved for the highest amount possible and not just what they want the final payment to be, so if they have to go a little bit higher they can.”
‘Make the seller’s life easier. Another way to succeed at buying your first home in Cherry Creek is to be flexible and forgiving with things like appraisals and inspections. Best advises buyers to, “stick to deadlines and schedule inspections quickly. That’s what makes a difference in getting offers accepted or not.”
‘Lebovic agrees that “Buying ‘as is’ helps buyers get ahead,” and notes that, “A big challenge for inexperienced buyers is to accept that every home has faults.” He also warns against asking the seller for too many repairs.’
‘Shelley Bridge, a real estate agent with Re/Max of Cherry Creek, encourages clients preparing offers to “write them over asking [price] and with as few contingencies as possible. We often try and remove as many contingencies as we can so they (the seller) feel confidant.”
go all in
“You gotta roll with it” — Caitlin Vestal
My scant exposure to the mile-high city was limited to Lakewood, west of Denver. A used 3/2 rancher there is still only worth about $145k in 2015 dollars based on local household income. Colorado is still a drought stricken low wage state, IMHO.
They have pot now=instant wealth
‘The burden of prosperity is forcing home buyers along the Wasatch Front to move quickly to find a house on the market before it’s gone.’
‘According to the Utah Central Association of Realtors, homes for sale in Eagle Mountain are staying on the market an average of just 17 days. “It’s unbelievable. There is just more buyers than there are [buildings] in the marketplace,” said Steven Bond, a Re/Max Equity broker in Provo. “Almost every home that hits the market is in a bidding war in just a couple of days.”
Now that’s writing:
‘The burden of prosperity is forcing home buyers…’
‘While the housing market is what builders term as “hot,” it’s better than when the housing market collapsed in 2007, Gamvroulas said. “It’s night and day,” he said. “Obviously, it’s better to have a strong economy than a weak economy. They both pose challenges, these are just better challenges to have. No one in their right mind wants a challenging market. “It’s been a little overheated and everybody that I know in the industry would rather have it consistent and stable and strong, but not overheated.”
Chief Jay Strongbow and Senior Housing Analyst are plying racquetball in some skulls around here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fj1sP5uKEkw - 213k -
“A weekend look at housing supply and demand starting with the Lincoln County Journal. “We keep hearing how low inventory is in today’s housing market, but why is that the case?”
But why is that the case? Let me go to Zillow and maybe we’ll get a clue:
Zillow says the value (also known as the price) of my Miracle House has jumped up by $6,030 over the past thirty days. Clearly this Miracle House of mine is a money-making machine; It sits there generating increasing wealth day-after-day and all I have to do to make this happen is … is to do nothing.
So the incentive for me is to do what? To sell?
Are you crazy?
My Miracle House is a money-making machine and there is no way I will ever want to sell this money-making machine as long as it continues to make money. The only reason I would want to sell it is if it STOPS making me money. Got it? And the way it will stop making me money is if the value (also know as the price) stops going up and (gasp) begins to go down.
Which means that my Miracle House and probably a lot of other Miracle Houses in my neighborhood will not be put up for sale as long as values (prices) are going up but just might possibly be put up for sale if it is seen that this Devine Miracle has come to and end and values (prices) are start to go down.
Which means if prices start to do down then all of a sudden a lot of houses will be put up for sale because the owners of these houses will sense that the Divine-Miracle-Of-Ever-Rising-Home-Values has come to an end and that now is the time to cash out (meaning now is the time to sell).
So if this is the case then what happens, what suddenly happens, to this “low inventory” of houses?
I know you’re being a bit facetious, but you’re not far off. One of my co-workers is planning to retire in a few months. Between his gold bennies and his younger wife’s portable job, the family is in a position to move anywhere in the country if they wished. But he told me that he might just stay put where he is. Their home — in a country-ish town far from the city but still commutable to the office — is appreciating faster than any of his investments. If they moved, they would lose that.
Donk,
Thats a handy but worn false narrative that ignores the fact there isn’t a buyer at that price.
Zillow says my house value dropped $85,000 over the last 12 months.
Whoops….nonothe Zillow value down over $100,000. I haven’t checked it for a while. It says the value dropped $9,997 last month.
Strangely, it also says my house value will increase over 1.5% next year!
Whoops….nonothe Zillow value down over $100,000.
And… did you care?
I did. Especially considering I had to earn $9000 just to offset $5k in depreciation this year alone.
Sure, I care, it is all part of my new worth. However, what Zillow says has no impact on my life. I live in a toe tag house! I love living here.
‘Crash and yearn: Guilford housing market has ’shortage of inventory’
‘Millions of people have repaired their credit, found jobs and want to own homes again. They’re colliding with Millennials, young people who are finding their first jobs. Both groups could represent more than 35 percent of all buyers by the end of this year, real estate experts say. That has meant rising prices and even bidding wars for some of the most desirable houses.’
‘In recent years, for example, sellers were eager to pay closing costs to sell houses, “but it’s becoming harder because the seller realizes ‘I’ve got three or four offers on my house. Give me your highest and best,’ ” said Chris Young, a certified mortgage planner with Benchmark Mortgage in Greensboro.’
‘One of his clients was stunned recently when he lost a house to another buyer paying $4,000 over the list price.’
‘Marks advises all of his clients to work with a mortgage broker, someone like Young, who can find those incentives and help them get qualified early for a mortgage. “When you see a property come on the market that you like, be ready to make an offer,” Marks said. “You need to be prepared when you find the property.”
‘Nationwide research tells the same tale. According to a report from the RealtyTrac research company, many “credit dings” that occurred as a result of the foreclosure crisis in 2006 and 2007 are “falling off the system.”
“The people who are going back into the market have to understand that the lenders are going to be asking for information,” he explained. “And don’t get frustrated … even if it’s the day before (closing). Because the goal is get into the home.”
Why is there any doubt about the record levels of fraud going on?
Housing Analyst. We have been over this again and again. You are only allowed one new internet handle per month. You have 10 days before you can pick a new one.
Data my friend. Study the data.
Arcadia, CA Housing Prices Crater 10% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/arcadia-ca/home-values/
I don’t need to study the data, but you need to get back on your meds. I’m watching the three overpriced new homes behind me not sell. I think they are holding out for cash-rich foreigners.
Don’t attack. Study the data and be classy….. like Freddie Blassie.
Oakton(Washington, DC), VA Housing Prices Collapse 31% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/oakton-va/home-values/
“Because the goal is get into the home.”
No matter what it takes.
BTW, if anyone in HBB-Land has a good-looking teen-aged daughter and want to get a good deal on a loan then come in to my bank and perhaps we can work out a deal.
Oh, and be sure to bring along your daughter.
Can we share the bathroom
Only if you can prove that you are a tranny.
“GREENSBORO — The real estate crash nearly a decade ago flushed thousands of people out of their homes and away from the market.”
They were screaming give me my house for free I’m a robo signed victim while they were circling the bowl.
Urban Dictionary: circling the bowl
Paramedics sometimes use this term (among each other) when a patient is about ready to die or is dying.
Wasn’t much I could do given the three gsw’s (gun shot wounds) to his upper thorax, that dude was circling the bowl even before we arrived on scene.
‘Most houses that are priced well in Grays Harbor are flying off the market. Low interest rates, low inventory, pent up demand and folks from Thurston County looking to Grays Harbor to find more house for their money are a few of the probable reasons. “About two or three years ago the average was 110 days on the market. I don’t have actual statistics yet, but it seems like now a couple weeks to a month on the market is the average expectation,” said Jason Atwood, broker at Premier Realty in Aberdeen.’
“This market is the busiest that I’ve seen. It feels even bigger than ’05 and ’06,” Atwood said. “This May is going to be the biggest month that I have ever experienced. The former monthly sales record for this realty was $1.8 million. I think I might hit $3 million in sales this month!”
‘Why the shift? Because the inventory is lower than typical, in much of Grays Harbor, houses are receiving multiple offers,” he said, something that this area’s real estate agents haven’t had to deal with much over the years.’
‘Houses in the $175,000 to $300,000 range are going particularly fast in East County, but throughout Grays Harbor everything from $25,000 to $450,000 is going, he said. “And from Central Park to the east, if something is priced right, buyers usually have to literally jump on it the first day.”
‘In addition, in Aberdeen, Atwood said, the Bel Aire area and Broadway Hill area, as well as the Cosi Hill in Cosmopolis are also seeing quick movement. “I don’t know if it is just that interest rates are still low, or what. We’ve seen a little pick up of commercial buildings, a few restaurants, etc., but it’s nothing like a mill opening.”
“I do know that while I used to get a call or two a week from Olympia-area brokers, I’m getting two or three calls a day now. The commute isn’t bad, the prices are low in comparison and the Thurston County inventory is depleted,” he said.’
‘Another sign of a community’s economic health is what is happening in the commercial market. And while Grays Harbor is not experiencing anything near the activity of the residential market, there are some hopeful signs.’
‘Right off the freeway in Elma, the land is being prepared for what’s rumored to be a little strip mall. In Montesano, two new restaurants, The Fishing Hole and the new Savory Faire, are poised to open.’
‘In Aberdeen, the Top Foods store will soon have Tractor Sales operating there, a Sprint franchise has opened in the former Baskin &Robbins and a new Wendy’s Restaurant has just broken ground. In addition, the much-anticipated Amore Italian Restaurant above the Grand Heron Building on Heron Street, and an inviting sushi restaurant, Samurai, on Wishkah Street, have both recently opened.’
Wow, this might be the shoeshine boy stock tip moment we’ve been looking for! Aberdeen, Hoquiam, Grays Harbor are rundown former logging towns. There is no reason for this to be happening there. Sell, fool!
Aberdeen, fyi, is where Kurt Cobain is from. Maybe that’s it…
‘Who says Disneyland is the happiest place on earth? I’m just back from the Mortgage Bankers Secondary Market Conference in New York. Now, that was the happiest place on earth.’
‘And these folks were as happy as I’ve ever seen lenders in my 25-plus years of attending these mortgage meetings because they’re pleased about their year-to-date business.’
‘Now, let’s talk about some exciting new loans that I came across at the conference. How about a loan for single-family and duplex property investors, foreign or domestic, that requires just two months of bank statements to verify your down payment and your payment reserves?’
‘Qualifying is similar to how commercial loans are qualified, based upon the strength of the subject property rents to cover debt service. If you are loaded with debt or have little or no documented income, as conventional Fannie Mae qualifying goes, you might still be good to go.’
‘Domestic borrowers or their designated limited liability corporations require at least 25 percent down, a 700 minimum FICO score and four months of payment reserves. Foreign investors (no LLC’s) require just a passport (not a visa), an approved country of origin (per the U.S. State Department), a minimum 35 percent down and six months of payment reserves.’
‘For the many Orange County non-warrantable condominiums (not acceptable to Fannie Mae) that are hard to place, how about owner-occupied or second home, putting at least a 20 percent down payment and a minimum 680 FICO score?’
‘While not exactly new, I haven’t heard about the old Federal Housing Administration Title 1 home improvement loan in nearly 10 years. But it’s back in town! You get a loan amount up to $25,000. A 620 middle FICO score is required. No equity, no problem! It’s either a second mortgage or in some cases, a third mortgage.’
‘And lastly, there is a piggy-back fixed-rate second mortgage available to avoid mortgage insurance when putting less than 20 percent down. You can get a maximum combined loan-to-value of 95 percent with a 680 middle FICO score for up to $250,000. This is ideal for those Fannie Mae high-balance loans ($417,000 to $625,500) and true jumbos (above $625,500).’
‘More next week from the Mortgage Bankers Secondary Market Conference. Specifically, I’m going to explain a new tool used to see if the appraiser was really low-balling you or if the property just isn’t worth what the seller is asking.’
‘Mortgage broker Jeff Lazerson can be reached at…’
‘I’m just back from the Mortgage Bankers Secondary Market Conference in New York. Now, that was the happiest place on earth’
‘Kings County home building activity has reached its highest level in four years, according to reports by the city of Hanford and Metro Study. In light of Kings’ improving economy and population growth, the city plans on the construction of 4,832 housing units over the next eight years, according to its recent housing report.’
“It’s positive in the fact that there’s new home demands, [and] our job growth is stable and drastically improved,” said Greg Gross, director of Metro Study’s Central California market. “Also, in the Central Valley we have people priced out of the Bay Area market.”
‘Kings County has a higher growth rate in new construction than surrounding counties. Compared to March 2012, the number of annual starts for Kings County is up 70 percent; Kern County up 60 percent; Fresno County up 43 percent; and Tulare County up 41 percent.’
“In your area, people are looking for affordable homes outside of Fresno, so they’re moving to Visalia, or Kings County,” Gross said.’
‘Hanford real estate agent Kimber Regan says people are buying their own homes because interest rates are low, and “a larger percentage of the population is able to qualify” in the area. “Our local real estate market, including Kings and Tulare counties is booming,” she said.’
Oh…
‘Regan says people are buying their own homes because interest rates are low, and ‘a larger percentage of the population is able to qualify’
” It’s either a second mortgage or in some cases, a third mortgage.’”
Third mortgages are more widespread than ever. Not to mention the fact that second mortgages are granted on negative equity properties.
“Third mortgages are more widespread than ever. Not to mention the fact that second mortgages are granted on negative equity properties.”
See? No frenzy here at all.
A market that has its prices backed by sound values. A Miracle Market.
‘If you are loaded with debt or have little or no documented income, as conventional Fannie Mae qualifying goes, you might still be good to go’
It’s gonna be crow buffet at jingles shack if he reads this.
I’m having a turkey sandwich. Does that qualify?
I hope u r making this up
3rd? Why nit get a Scandinavian 100 year mortgage ?
Third mortgages are right there in the article VA_Donk.
Third mortgages are more widespread than ever.
Can you point to any data that supports your statement?
I thought not.
Data my friend. Stick with the data.
Silverdale, WA Housing Prices Crater 14%YoY On Ballooning Housing Inventory
http://www.zillow.com/silverdale-wa/home-values/
Data my friend. Stick with the data.
That is exactly what I was asking you for: data to support your supposition about third mortgages. And you have none—you were just making stuff up once again.
You know exactly where to find it. Just because you deny its’ existence doesn’t change anything.
‘FHA Smashes Homeownership Barriers In High-Priced Markets’
‘Consider this number: 753,388. That’s how many families bought a home with an FHA mortgage in 2015. This statistic from Housing and Urban Development (HUD) puts in perspective the massive popularity of this program.’
‘There may be no single more effective tool for home buyers than an FHA loan. And in 2016, the news just keeps getting better.’
‘FHA loan limits have risen in 188 counties across the U.S. in 2016, giving families in higher-priced areas access to more homes via FHA financing. FHA loans can be had at loan amounts well north of half a million dollars.’
‘Now, more homes in expensive areas are eligible for a 3.5% downpayment and lenient credit score requirements.’
‘Before the FHA announced the updated limits, some experts worried that the agency might decrease the limits. News of the mostly unchanged ceilings should come as a relief to home buyers.’
‘The FHA doesn’t issue loans itself. Instead, it insures the mortgages issued by banks and other private lenders. Historically, this has increased private institutions’ willingness to make loans to people who otherwise wouldn’t qualify for conventional mortgages.’
‘FHA-insured loans are especially beneficial to first-time buyers because the upfront costs are lower, and they don’t need a 740 credit score to qualify.’
‘In fact, borrowers can get an FHA loan with a downpayment as low as 3.5 percent and a credit score of 580. Those with credit scores between 500 and 579 can still qualify, but must make a downpayment of 10 percent.’
‘Home buyers pay two kinds of mortgage insurance premium to qualify for the FHA loan. The first is an upfront mortgage insurance premium (UFMIP), which is due in its entirety upfront. Most buyers choose to add it to their loan balance.’
‘The second is an annual mortgage insurance premium (MIP), which is added to the monthly mortgage payment. The amount of both premiums is a small percentage of the loan amount.’
‘In non-metropolitan areas, the FHA calculates its maximum loan limits each year based on 115 percent of the median home price in the area. Not every area’s limit is based strictly on median home price, however. The FHA’s lowest loan limit, called the “floor” limit, is $271,050. This limit applies to regions that would have lower loan limits strictly based on 115 percent of the median home price.’
‘These are called low-cost areas.’
‘Home buyers in low-cost areas can buy homes that are priced well above area averages. For instance, an area’s median home price is $100,000. Without the FHA “floor” limit, buyers in that area could only buy a home up to $115,000. But buyers can qualify for a home that costs more than twice that price because of the FHA floor limit.’
‘An area where the loan limit exceeds the floor is considered a high-cost area. Using the uppermost limit, buyers can qualify for an FHA mortgage up to $625,500 in areas like Los Angeles County, California, and in many counties around New York, New York.’
So, where are the mortgages where the monthly payment is less that fully amortized PITI? Not 0% down. Not low FICO. Less than fully amortized PITI.
‘With inventory tight in the lower end of the housing market there comes new hope for those who can qualify for an approved loan underwritten by the Idaho Housing and Finance Association. Both the income level and allowable purchase price of a home in the North Idaho Panhandle region have increased which will allow some to get help in buying a pricier home.’
‘For many programs the income limit for Kootenai County is now $90,000 annually with a home cost limit of $312,300. If you are a one- or two-person household that income limit lowers to $73,680 or $85,960 for three of more in the family wanting to use a first-time loan, a tax credit/Mortgage Credit Certificate loan or an FHA loan with a second mortgage to cover the down payment. All other IHFA loans are allowed for folks making up to $90,000 in income.’
‘An MCC is an on-going federal tax credit that can continue year after year for as long as you retain the loan and occupy the home as your primary residence. The amount of the MCC tax credit is based on a percentage of the amount of mortgage interest you pay on the first mortgage loan. The exact percentage of first mortgage interest you can claim is determined by Idaho Housing.’
‘It is interesting to note that in all of North Idaho, Bonner, Benewah, Boundary and Shoshone counties, even those who have owned a home within the last three years are able to utilize this program. North Idaho is a target area and IHFA wants to encourage home ownership here.’
‘National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun recently stated, “The simplest math shouldn’t be overlooked. A vast majority of homebuyers take out a 30-year fixed rate mortgage to make a home purchase. After 30 years, there is no mortgage payment (nor rent payment). So the home price growth over that time period would be the equity that the homebuyer would have accumulated.”
‘Of course we are in favor of anything that encourages home ownership. These new income and loan limits will do just that, particularly in North Idaho where there are fewer restrictions.’
“So, where are the mortgages where the monthly payment is less that fully amortized PITI? Not 0% down. Not low FICO. Less than fully amortized PITI.”
80/20 double mortgages are everywhere. The 20’s are pick-a-payment.
‘The West Side housing market is tipping in the favor of sellers, with low inventory and appreciating prices the hallmark of recent months. Homes on the market that are well-priced and in prime condition are being snapped up quickly by buyers, local real estate agents recently reported, and in some cases sellers are able to choose from competing offers.’
‘Homes listed for less than $200,000 are few and far between, agents recently told Mattos Newspapers, while the number of homes on the market with asking prices exceeding $300,000 is growing.’
‘The tight inventory could be changing, though, as Vander Poel and Rodriguez each noted that a number of homes have recently come onto the market. “Last week, eight properties came onto the market the same day,” Rodriguez told Mattos Newspapers in late April. “There are people starting to sell again, mostly investors.”
‘That is a significant increase, given the small number of homes on the market. Even with an influx of five new listings, Vander Poel told Mattos Newspapers recently, a total of 19 homes were on the market in Gustine and Newman. Eight of those were listed for over $300,000.’
‘Some buyers who are looking at a property as a long-term home may stretch their parameters if they find that perfect house, Rodriguez said, but many are cautious about over-extending themselves.’
“Buyers are well-informed. They have checked out the housing market on the internet and they are pre-qualified by the time they come in,” he commented. “They know how much they are going to pay, and even if they are pre-qualified for more they will tell you that they can only afford so much.”
‘Amaral agreed. “When we have first-time buyers, we have exactly that conversation with them,” he said of the importance of finding a financial comfort zone. “They figure out their price point and they shop for it, so that they are not in sticker shock when they get their first mortgage statement.”
‘even if they are pre-qualified for more’
Buyers are well-informed
They’re not buyers.
Buyers don’t have to be “pre-qualified” because actual buyers pay with cash.
‘In California, where the average home price is roughly two-and-a-half times the national average, buying your first home is more than a little daunting. With home prices in much of L.A. at pre-recession levels, or exceeding them, first-time buyers are struggling to break into the market.’
‘To be considered, buyers must often put down big down payments or even full cash offers. They have to agree to the seller’s terms, such as a long — or short — escrow period. And there’s no forgetting the “love letter,” a personal appeal written to the sellers. Real estate broker Carol Huston recalled the buyer who sent a photo of herself with a pet frog to the sellers.’
“She said that she loves this house for her and her frog,” Huston said. “But you know, it worked! They thought it was so charming.”
‘Drayson Helberg, a 29-year-old art director, has only been house-hunting for a few months, but he knows the drill. “The decent properties are swooped up almost instantly. And the list price is never the actual price,” Helberg said. Multiple bidders drive up the home value. “What are you going to do? That’s the game out here.”
‘But it wasn’t always this way. Decades ago, California home prices were more in line with the rest of the country.’
‘Matt Epstein closely watches the real estate market as a broker for Berkshire Hathaway in Los Angeles and the 21-year vice president of one of the city’s largest homeowner associations in Sherman Oaks, with over 2,000 members. “I don’t think there’s a solution in terms of supply and demand,” Epstein said.’
‘He agrees there needs to be more housing. But, he said, the city’s aging infrastructure — crumbling sidewalks, bursting water mains — isn’t equipped to support more people.’
‘Dale Jordan, a ballet dancer and new mom, has made at least nine bids on homes since January. She’s originally from the village of Stonybrook in eastern Long Island, where the median price of a home is half the price of homes she’s looking at in Los Angeles. “The amount of cash you’re paying, you can buy two or three houses,” Jordan said.’
‘So she’s had to re-adjust her expectations. She offered cash on a house in Glassell Park last month. But it wasn’t enough. Her broker said there were more than 60 bids. The house sold $725,000 — $150,000 over the initial asking price.’
‘I don’t think there’s a solution in terms of supply and demand’
See, there is a magic line you cross when you enter California. The laws of supply and demand don’t work there. (They used to, something happened!)
The frogs are different. There’s now gold nuggets in the top soil. And there’s a huge federal house loan cap too! Joy!
“See, there is a magic line you cross when you enter California. The laws of supply and demand don’t work there. (They used to, something happened!)”
Damn, I just did another Zillow and Zillow says the price of my Miracle House hasn’t moved up one cent from what it was an hour ago. Should I be concerned? Is now the time to place it on the market?
I gotta know; My fingernails are bitten down to the quick.
“She said that she loves this house for her and her frog,” Huston said. “But you know, it worked! They thought it was so charming.”
Hand me the barf bag.
I gotta admit, that frog is right up there with the Indoor Lazy River and the Puddle Watching.
“In California, where the average home price is roughly two-and-a-half times the national average…”
That’s a big phat fugg’n lie right there.
They can pay what the want. My housing costs in the foothills south of Irvine are one third that of my neighbors’ and I have more than ten times the average savings that they have.
It is the deal of having your cake and eating it too.
There is a lot of rage here by motorists who tailgate us as we drive into this rent-only apartment complex. Several times, though I have turned on my turn signal far enough in advance, I would hear a car horn, someone enraged that someone is turning into an apartment complex.
I think they know we are living quite well for such a low cost and not throwing money away on stucco boxes.
These boxes are about a third of my net worth, so my one-sixth criteria rules them out.
Yes the rage is high by the loan owners here.
Will Mr. Market and Ms. Fed ever get divorced?
By Anora Mahmudova
Published: May 20, 2016 6:28 p.m. ET
S&P 500, Dow have stayed below records for 12 months amid interest-rate uncertainty
Joseph Sohm/Shutterstock
It may be time for the Federal Reserve and Wall Street to end their co-dependent relationship.
If the Federal Reserve and the U.S. stock market were human, they would be a long-suffering couple on the verge of a divorce.
Mr. Market—emotional and unstable—is continuously supported by loving and caring Ms. Fed. But the relationship, which can only be described as “co-dependent” in an unhealthy way, has been truly strained over the past year and both would like to part ways while perhaps remaining friends.
It is reasonable to feel sympathy for the Fed—finding a perfect time for hiking rates proved extremely difficult. Destabilizing markets, which can then negatively impact the real economy, is something that the Fed will avoid doing if it can. And for the past year it had been doing just that, though the side effect of such policy has been a self-perpetuating trap for the Fed.
…
More corporate media obfuscation. The Wall Street-Federal Reserve Looting Syndicate is the most lucrative racket for the .1% in human history. If the Federal Reserve and the US stock market were human, Janet Yellen would be Goldman Sachs’ gimp. Oh wait, she already is.
Warmist Warming Weekend Edition, linked from Drudge to rally the base:
http://pagesix.com/2016/05/20/hypocrite-leo-takes-private-jet-to-collect-green-award/
Rallying the base.
Spring has sprung in the Arctic, but it’s way too early for it:
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_573f6fa8e4b00e09e89f17ee
The trees were coming into bloom a month and a half ago.
Madera, CA Housing Affordability Surges As Prices Fall 5% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/madera-ca/home-values/
“This combination of low interest rates and large-scale asset purchases laid a solid foundation for the improvement of household balance sheets that occurred during the recovery. But it can’t do much to spur a higher trend rate for real growth. ‘It may be more accurate to say that the economy at 2 percent inflation will be as good as it gets, but as-good-as-it-gets may be very mediocre,’ Englander concludes. ‘Expectations of currency strength and asset market stability are likely exaggerated as well.’”
At what point did asset price manipulation and looking out for the interests of the 0.1% become part of the Fed’s mandate?
‘When Leslie Rouda Smith’s daughter decided to put an East Plano home on the market for $199,000, her mother’s advice: “You better not go out tonight.” And it was a good thing she did, said Smith, who is the 2016 chairwoman for the Texas Association of Realtors.’
“She was blown away by the kind of response she got,” Smith told the Dallas Business Journal.”Our market is off the charts. In three-and-a-half hours she had 11 offers — some at list price and some above list price and some cash offers.’
‘With the median home price in North Texas growing 8.6 percent year-over-year to $215,000 in the first quarter of 2016, Smith said any home in the region priced under $200,000 are snapped up quickly by home buyers.’
‘Dallas-Fort Worth’s median home price was $20,000 more in the first quarter than the median home price of the Lone Star state, which sat at $195,000.’
‘The Texas Association of Realtors reported Monday homes sales in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area skyrocketed year-over-year in the first quarter by 14.3 percent, with 20,206 single-family homes sold to buyers.’
‘growing 8.6 percent year-over-year to $215,000 in the first quarter of 2016…sales in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area skyrocketed year-over-year in the first quarter by 14.3 percent’
Higher prices should reduce demand. This is the exact opposite.
“Higher prices should reduce demand. This is the exact opposite.”
Logic. Those who are stuck with trying to apply the logic of Econ 101 are looosers.
Higher prices do not reduce demand, higher prices is what creates demand.
The New Era has arrived.
“Higher prices should reduce demand. This is the exact opposite.”
Consumables are bought on present value.
Good which are expected to be sold at a later date are bought on perceived future value, not present value.
Consumables aren’t. Investments are and that’s where the problem lies. Houses are indeed a consumption item and also depreciate. There is no “investment value” there.
‘Multifamily developers continue to churn out record levels of new supply ahead of what is expected to be a ‘peak year’ for apartment construction in 2016. The number of new apartments under construction is at its highest level since the 1980s, and double the annual historical average seen over the last 34 years.’
‘Almost 205,000 units delivered over the four quarters ending March 31, 2016, a 2% annual increase, including 46,000 units added during the seasonally slow first quarter. With more than 240,000 units expected to deliver across the top 54 U.S. markets this year, CoStar projects 2016 to be the peak year in the current cycle for new apartment construction.’
‘More than a half a million units are under way across the country, nearly twice the historical average since 1982.’
‘Another 220,000 units are projected to be built in 2017. If that holds, 2017 would be the fourth consecutive year that annual new supply exceeded 200,000 units, the first such period of extended building activity since Ronald Reagan was in the White House.’
‘Wonder why the rental market is slowing? Take a look at census numbers’
‘NYC’s population growth fell for fifth year in a row’
‘One common view is that rents simply rose too quickly in previous years, making many apartments unaffordable and eventually putting downward pressure on prices. Others point to the boom in multifamily construction, which added heaps of new supply. Figures released by the U.S. Census Bureau Thursday hint at a third possible factor: New York’s population is no longer growing at the rate it used to.’
‘Census figures also show that despite all the talk of a flight to cities, suburbs have actually been growing at a faster pace than major urban centers. The 50 largest cities accounted for 20 percent of overall U.S. population growth in 2015 – down from 26.7 percent in 2011.’
‘According to an April report by appraisal firm Miller Samuel, median net effective rents in Manhattan and Brooklyn grew by 0.4 and 0.6. percent respectively between April 2015 and April 2016 – down from 3.9 and 5.5 percent a year earlier.’
‘More and more apartment buildings are popping up in cities around the country, but that doesn’t mean they’re getting more affordable. A large number of these developments are very upscale, aimed at people who can afford some serious luxury.’
‘The study found that 3-in-4 new apartment developments built in 2015 were high-end rentals, and that luxury construction was up 63% overall from 2012. In absolute numbers, that translates to 896 luxury multi-family projects of 50+ units (out of a total of 1,188 total projects) completed in 2015, according to RENTCafé, compared to 382 luxury multi-family projects of 50+ units completed three years prior.’
‘Early 2016 data shows no slowdown in luxury apartment development, with 79% of all apartment buildings finalized in the first quarter of 2016 being categorized as luxury.’
‘It’s no wonder developers are focusing on rentals with amenities that typically far surpass those available in starter homes. The highest percentages of high-end rentals were registered in the Southwest and the Mid-Atlantic (88% of the total number of large rental developments), and in the South and Southeast (78%), the study showed. The lowest numbers were registered in the Pacific Northwest (61%), in California (65%) and in the Northeast (65%), where the leading metro markets are more mature.’
‘Luxury apartment construction is on the uptick in all regions in recent years, however. The most significant increase from 2012 to 2015 in the ratio of high-end to total new apartments was in the Southeast, up by 119%. Over the same period of time, in the Pacific Northwest the numbers went up 90%, and in California 82%, the study showed.’
‘Check out our roundup of 9 cities where rent is getting cheaper this year. Six metro areas that aren’t on that list, however, really stood out when it comes to luxury developments.’
‘San Antonio, Texas, where 17 out of 17 properties that completed construction in 2015 were luxury.’
‘Kansas City, Missouri, where 14 out of 14 properties completed were luxury, with an average monthly rent of $1,055, versus the metro average of $850.’
‘Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where 10 out of 10 large properties opened in 2015 were all classified as high-end with the average rental rate of $1,367 per month.’
‘Midland-Odessa, Texas, where 9 high-end properties were completed, charging an average monthly rent of $1,501, which is $402 more than the overall average rent.’
‘Jacksonville, Florida, with 7 of 7 properties completed were high-end, with average rents of $1,055.’
‘Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, also with 7 out of 7 properties completed in 2015 being high-end rentals with average rents of $1,090.’
In the nation’s soon to be third largest city, every empty corner is being filled with luxury mid- to high-rise apartments. And yet, the bloodletting continues in the so-called Energy Corridor.
Deduct 100,000 bankers losing their jobs
“Central banks may be partially to blame for the misperception that economic conditions will be materially better than they are now when inflation is higher, contends Citigroup Inc. Global Head of G10 FX Strategy Steven Englander. To the extent that this true, it probably has much to do with the increased emphasis the Fed has placed on the wealth effect as part of the transition mechanism by which unconventional accommodation boosted activity when policy rates approached zero.”
First of all, according to Fed economists, assets price increases are wealth effects, which are entirely different than inflation.
Secondly, isn’t the real proof in how well those wealth effects are destined to hold up under liftoff to normalize policy? It seems like they might reverse, based on standard asset pricing formulas, but I guess we won’t know until liftoff actually happens.
“assets price increases are wealth effects”
Yes! If the value of an asset you possess increases in value faster that your paycheck then you are a dummy if you continue to work for a living.
If/when EVERYONE has an asset that increases in value faster than their paychecks then EVERYONE will be able to quit their jobs and sit back and enjoy endless prosperity.
Assets for everyone, endless wealth for everyone. Truly a Miracle economy.
“EVERYONE will be able to quit their jobs and sit back and enjoy endless prosperity.”
Why not just buy a couple of investment properties and rely on them to provide your income instead of the sweat off your brow?
Reston(Washington, DC), VA Housing Affordability Balloons As Prices Crater 6% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/reston-va/home-values/
‘Tax breaks for pricey housing spur suburban development’
‘The new buildings surrounding the Orenco MAX station look like they could have been airlifted from the Pearl District. The train whizzes by a public plaza where families and couples gather. Young professionals drink craft beer and watch sports on the ground floor of an apartment tower. Others eat at outdoor tables beside a French boulangerie.’
‘Tenants in the new development, known as the Platform District, are paying Northwest Portland-like rents, too. And it comes with a big assist from Hillsboro taxpayers to the developer behind the project.’
‘For Portland-area landlords, recent years have marked the most lucrative stretch ever seen thanks to historic growth in population, employment and home values. For developers of multi-family and mixed-use projects, there’s never been a better time.’
‘But the Platform District – developed by Vancouver-based Holland Partner Group – received an especially good deal. It saved more than $330,000 in property taxes last year through a little-known state initiative called the Vertical Housing Program, according to a Washington County estimate. By the time the 10-year incentive expires, the Platform District’s owners will have saved millions of dollars in property taxes, without any requirement to include affordable housing.’
“I think development probably would have occurred there anyway,” said Christine Armer, who has lived in the historic Orenco townsite neighborhood opposite the MAX tracks for 11 years. She believes the program is a giveaway to developers.’
‘An analysis by The Oregonian/OregonLive shows that the initiative – which is often used in conjunction with other publicly funded subsidies, such as a $700,000 Metro grant at the Platform District – mostly results in pricey market-rate housing.’
‘Developers defend the program, saying the Platform District and other such projects would have been impossible without the incentives and bring investment to previously depressed areas. And they point out that the incentive has not been widely used and was never designed to provide affordable housing.’
“My personal opinion about the affordability crisis is it’s really a supply-side issue,” said Dwight Unti, president at Tokola Properties, which has done Vertical Housing projects in downtown Hillsboro and Gresham and is planning another in Forest Grove. “There’s just not an adequate supply of multifamily housing.”
‘When the Platform District was being planned, the economy was still struggling and the rental market was anemic. But Hub 9 opened last year, at the peak of the rental and development boom, and another Platform District building opened months later. A third is slated to hit the market this summer. All, in addition to a fourth building built beforehand, are eligible for the tax breaks. They total more than 900 units of housing in the area surrounding Orenco Station.’
“Two-plus million dollars to a developer so they could make a lot of money… was a really poor use of public money,” said Tom Beck, who has chaired the Forest Grove Planning Commission for 15 years, referring to 4th Main.’
‘Unti said Vertical Housing projects wouldn’t pencil out without the program. At the developer’s Vertical Housing project in downtown Gresham, called Third Central, rents are way above average – $1,605 a month for a two-bedroom, two-bathroom unit, compared to a Gresham-area average of $990.’
‘During a committee hearing on extending the program last year, state Rep. John Davis (R-Wilsonville) wondered why Vertical Housing was needed in light of a booming market for apartment construction and historically low vacancy rates. He eventually did vote in favor of the extension.’
“Most developers I know… are trying to get multifamily up as quickly and with as much abundance as possible,” Davis said.’
Gentrification of what some used to call Hillsburrito.
Another heroin article:
“Grandparents have long provided safe harbor for grandchildren for a host of reasons — dire financial straits, teen pregnancy, military deployment. But not since the crack epidemic of the 1980s and 1990s, analysts say, have so many children been at risk because of parental drug addiction.
With the rise in heroin use, grandparents are increasingly raising their grandchildren because the parents are either dead, in jail, in rehab or otherwise incapable of taking care of their children.”
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/05/us/grandparents-heroin-impact-kids.html?_r=0
The Democrat Party seeks to supplant the role of grandparents in nurturing the next generation of dependency voters. It will be a friend for the friendless, a home for the homeless, and a garden for the vegetables that vote straight D.
‘With rent prices soaring, more and more San Francisco residents are looking to earn some extra cash by renting out their homes to tourists through websites like Airbnb and Craigslist. But as the NBC Bay Area Investigative Unit uncovered, many of these listings are illegal, with thousands breaking the law each day and getting away with it.’
‘The San Francisco Board of Supervisors first identified the crunch on affordable housing in the 1980s when the city moved to ban all short-terms rentals. The measure was intended to stop landlords from converting residential homes into makeshift hotels.’
‘Last year, the city loosened those restrictions, allowing permanent residents to rent out their homes if they register with the Office of Short Term Rentals and follow certain restrictions.’
‘Since February of last year, 1,281 other hosts have also registered with the city. However, that number is a far reach from the 7,046 hosts that Airbnb acknowledges are listing more than 9,000 properties in San Francisco. That means at least 82 percent of hosts are breaking the law.’
‘To help weed out illegal rentals, the city contacted the internet’s biggest home sharing companies, Airbnb, Craigslist, Flipkey, and Homeaway/VRBO. Among other things, the city asked the companies to require hosts in San Francisco to include their registration number in online ads. That was more than 4 months ago and Guy says those companies have yet to accommodate the city’s requests.’
‘Airbnb told NBC Bay Area they’ve had multiple conversations with the city and are working to remove some illegal rental ads from its site. The company still believes the city’s registration process is too complicated and, therefore, does not require its users to get a city permit.’
‘As for the other websites, they never got back to us.’
‘In a sample of 10 properties listed on Airbnb, city records showed 8 are not registered.’
‘The Investigative Unit went undercover and checked into one of those unregistered rentals in San Francisco’s Richmond District. The owner told our hidden camera while she owns the building, she doesn’t live there. City records show the building owner was previously cited for illegally operating a short term rental at another apartment complex in Nob Hill.’
‘The Investigative Unit found dozens of other users renting out multiple properties at a time, including one profile that listed 30 different rentals across the state. Three of them are in San Francisco.’
‘Former believes those who break the law drive up housing prices and compete with an unfair advantage. “Obviously, things have gotten out of hand. . . people were buying up all houses and converting them into short-term rental hotels,” Fromer said. “The people that live and work here have no place to go.”
Oh…
‘Airbnb believes the city’s registration process is too complicated and, therefore, does not require its users to get a city permit’
‘When Kuno and Jessica Copeland’s neighbor moved out of their quiet San Francisco neighborhood, they had no idea their life was about to be turned completely upside down.’
‘Within the first week, they noticed crowds of people coming and going from the house next door, sometimes hanging out on the sidewalk drinking and smoking. They said strangers carrying luggage, shuttled in by a constant stream of Uber cars, would mistakenly ring their doorbell late at night.’
‘Then they noticed the lock on their neighbor’s door had been replaced with an electronic key pad.’
“I think after the first couple of days when about 15 to 20 people showed up, we put the pieces together and realized this isn’t a tenant situation, this is an Airbnb situation,” Kuno Copeland said.’
‘The Copeland’s suspicions were confirmed when they found a listing on Airbnb advertising the home as a crash pad for travelers. Overnight, the 930 square foot home next door had been turned into a hostel where guests could stay for $33 a night. Even the garage was being rented out.’
‘Listings and reviews posted on Airbnb say the small three bedroom house could accommodate up to 20 guests and showed photos of bunk beds stacked side by side. “There are only two bathrooms for about 20 people at max capacity and has a high turnover rate,” one guest wrote in a review.’
‘NBC Bay Area went undercover to a short-term rental to see what a potentially illegal hotel looked like on the inside. Our crew rented a bunk bed at a 9th Avenue apartment for $42 a night. Inside, they found 14 beds packed into a three bedroom apartment and no signs it was someone’s primary home. At full occupancy, the owner could potentially make more than $17,000 a month listing the three bedroom apartment as a short-term rental.’
‘The Office of Short-Term Rentals sent letters to the major players in the industry, including Airbnb, asking for more assistance enforcing the City’s laws. The letter asked the companies to identify hosts with multiple listings, require hosts to list their registration number, and deactivate listings that are not occupied by a permanent San Francisco resident. However, the agency said the platforms have done little to cooperate.’
‘Peskin and fellow supervisor David Campos co-authored legislation in April that would mandate platforms to help police their own sites. Without that cooperation, they say enforcement is nearly impossible. The legislation would make hosting platforms verify hosts are registered with the City before they could list their home on the website. Platforms could face penalties of up to $1,000 a day for any unregistered listings.’
“The hosting platforms have perfect access to all of this information,” Peskin said. “They know which individuals are renting out multiple units. They can block them from their website. They can share that information with the City so that we can return these thousands of units back to our rental market and help bring down rent in San Francisco.”
‘Airbnb says all of those unregistered users are signs the City’s registration process is overly complicated and time consuming, not evidence of unscrupulous actors trying to cheat the system. “It’s incredibly complex,” said Chris Lehane, Director of Global Affairs for Airbnb. “It makes going to the DMV the equivalent of a walk in the park. For the average person, it takes 30 days to do it.”
This is rich:
‘Lehane said the complicated registration process makes it burdensome on users who depend on the platform to avoid evictions and foreclosures.’
On this:
‘all of those unregistered users are signs the City’s registration process is overly complicated and time consuming’
You know Chris, going into business is complicated and time consuming. Running a 30 person hotel out of a little house where it isn’t legal might even be subject to regulation! I am tempted to think not only are these scofflaws going away, but your entire business model is screwy. And if that’s the case, somebody is going to lose a whole bunch of money.
The false promise of single-payer health care:
“There is an elephant in the room that few like to mention when the high cost of U.S. health care comes up — especially in relation to what citizens in other countries pay. But thanks to Bernie Sanders’ proposal for a single-payer government-run plan, the elephant is finally getting some attention.
Expert analysts who look at the Sanders plan have mostly concluded it would cost a great deal of money, and much more than Sanders insists.”
http://www.denverpost.com/editorials/ci_29919432/false-promise-single-payer-health-care
The “elephant” in the room the the one third of the adult U.S. population that is obese.
Providing health care for these people’s self-inflicted health problems is why single payer will never work.
Not to mention the junkies.
New Data Show Millions of Americans with Alcohol and Drug Addiction Could Benefit from Health Care
By Join Together Staff Writer
September 28th, 2010
“Our society and our health care system have been slow to recognize and respond to addiction as a chronic, but treatable, condition,” said Dr. Taylor. “While change doesn’t happen overnight, if health care reform is implemented properly, millions of Americans will finally have insurance coverage for addiction treatment. This is an historic step toward a comprehensive, integrated approach to health care that includes treatment of addiction.”
Defining the Addiction Treatment Gap is intended to provide statistical context for efforts to close America’s addiction treatment gap, including the design of an addiction treatment benefit as part of health care reform implementation. According to CATG, a number of important factors should be considered:
Twenty-three million Americans are currently addicted to alcohol and/or other drugs. Only one in 10 of them (2.6 million) receives the treatment they need. The result: a treatment gap of more than 20 million Americans.
Cost and lack of insurance is the primary obstacle cited by Americans who say they need but are unable to receive treatment. Among those able to access treatment, nearly half (48.4 percent) reported using their own money to pay for their care.
In contrast to other chronic diseases, funding for addiction treatment disproportionately comes from government sources. More than three-quarters – 77 percent – of treatment costs are paid by federal, state and local governments, including Medicaid and Medicare. Private insurance covers only 10 percent of addiction treatment costs, with out-of- pocket expenditures and other private funding making up the remaining percentage. In contrast, private insurance pays for approximately 37 percent of general medical costs.
Screening and treatment is not integrated into the health care delivery system. Less than seven percent of those receiving treatment were referred by another health provider. In contrast, slightly more than two-thirds of those receiving treatment got there through self-referrals or the criminal justice system.
Legalize everything.
Read the Gangster Warlords book by Ioan Grillo. The war on drugs has been and always will be a total failure. Latin America is a disaster because of it.
Legal or not you still have…
Twenty-three million Americans addicted to alcohol and/or other drugs.
“Our society and our health care system have been slow to recognize and respond to addiction as a chronic, but treatable, condition,”
Treatable condition, as in just say no?
At some point this is what the addict has to do. It may be a hard thing for an addict to do but ultimately this saying “no” is what it takes.
IMH (hardcore) O.
Tsk, tsk addicts…SMH while drinking my second cup of caffeine.
Smack addiction flat out takes away the ability to say no.
“Smack addiction flat out takes away the ability to say no.”
This widely known fact should inspire those fools who should know better to “Just say no” right at the beginning but for some reason they don’t.
People have done it for thousands of years, long before Nancy Regan solved the problem.
Some people have it a lot rougher than you.
Used to be called moral hazard,u can’t insure a self induce event
“Providing health care for these people’s self-inflicted health problems is why single payer will never work.”
What does Canada have?
Obesity in Canada
From Wikipedia
Obesity rate
Statistics Canada, a sub-organization of the government of Canada, reports that 14,222,521 Canadians (54% of the population) over the age of 18 self-reported as overweight or obese in 2014.
can has folks waiting for heart,hip etc
Statistics Canada, a sub-organization of the government of Canada, reports that 14,222,521 Canadians (54% of the population) over the age of 18 self-reported as overweight or obese in 2014.
There’s a difference between being overweight and being obese. However, this would still indicate that Apartment 401’s assertion is probably incorrect.
Irrelevant.
That must be why you have to wait 3 months to see a doctor in Canada, too many obese people in the line.
“Providing health care for these people’s self-inflicted health problems is why single payer will never work.”
They get healthcare now, and we already pay for it through higher insurance premiums. We subsidies the fatties AND the insurance companies as it stands.
nope, they used to rate up fatsos by 20%
‘the vacancy rate for new single-family homes remains historically high, so builders are keeping their construction numbers in check (indeed, some have argued that today’s level of construction is even too high).”
‘And three, the new construction that does make its way to the market, on both the buying and renting side, is intended almost solely for more affluent consumers (and is therefore unaffordable to most consumers). Why? Simply, builders are limiting their products for safer terrain, aka the more affluent consumers who can absolutely buy what they are offering. So yes, new construction is low by historic standards, but for very precise (and deliberate) reasons’
Oh the quandary of it all. It would seem there’s no real shortage. Housing construction is at a 30 or 40 year high. But check this info-graphic out again:
‘Watch as million-dollar homes take over big cities’
‘Million-dollar homes used to be somewhat unique in the United States. While properties priced at or above that mark represent just a little more than 2 percent of the market, according to the National Association of Realtors, their share is growing.’
‘In fact, the share of million-dollar homes has nearly doubled in the last four years, according to Trulia, and in certain hot markets and neighborhoods, the increase is much larger. In the city of San Francisco, the share of million-dollar homes almost tripled. In San Jose, it went from around 17 percent of all homes to 46 percent.’
‘All of the major southern California housing markets, including Los Angeles, Orange County, Ventura County and San Diego, have seen their share of million-dollar homes more than double.’
‘In Brooklyn alone, one of the (NY) city’s five boroughs that has seen a ton of pricey new construction, the jump was enormous, from just under 2 percent to 56.5 percent.’
You have to check this out. Each map has a counter for the years. Look at Seattle from 2012 to now.
Gosh, we’ve wealth effected real good Janet! I’m sure nothing bad can happen, and it’s sustainable and no roll back could ever occur. I mean, if it did, roll back that is, would there be a negative wealth effect? Are any of these new million Yellen buck house owners refinancing? Surely they are all paying cash and no possibility of default with these enourmous increases, in all these cities, at exactly the same time.
“…with these enourmous increases, in all these cities, at exactly the same time.”
Thanks to systemic failure of the journalist profession, it’s up to a blogger to point out the extent of a mania.
Well, it’s real estate. Let’s look at some other types:
‘Consider the following string of regional shopping malls that sold in the past few weeks. The three properties - all located in outlying, sparsely populated areas and all hit with major store closures — join the list of 76 other malls of 100,000 square feet or larger that have sold for less than $10/square foot in the last two years.’
‘The 503,626-square-foot Gadsden Mall in Gadsden, AL sold for $9.85/square foot ($4.96 million) after trading for $58.8 million in 2005.’
‘The 358,057-square-foot Aiken Mall in Aiken, SC sold for $8.45/square foot ($3.03 million). In 2007, the same mall carried an appraised value of $26.3 million.’
‘The 746,410-square-foot Fairgrounds Square Mall in Reading, PA sold for a ridiculously low $1.54/square foot ($1.17 million). In 2007, the mall carried an appraised value of $50.7 million.’
‘It goes without saying that such sales represent an extreme example of the disparity evident in the two types of malls and make up just a tiny portion of overall mall sales. An almost equal number of malls have sold for more than $1,000/square foot.’
‘Since 2014, there has been about 1,125 malls that have sold for a combined $34.15 billion at an average price of about $153/square foot, according to CoStar information.’
Even $153/sq ft is hella cheap compared to our shacks. So what is the difference between shacks and this real estate? I can’t get a FHA loan for a mall. The government won’t back my mall purchase. Mel Watt isn’t backing these either. Whatever loan the government is backing, the real estate is going through the roof. Yet these malls are selling for peanuts. Coincidence?
We construct far more costly and robust stuff than a mall for less than the cost of a used up house and make a killing doing it.
“We”? The royal “We” that inhabits that smelly basement?
No. Just us individual contributors living in your empty skull.
Reading,silken are not that small or rural
What holding is reits alloft?
Luxury mall apartments. Is that a thing?
‘The 503,626-square-foot Gadsden Mall in Gadsden, AL sold for $9.85/square foot ($4.96 million) after trading for $58.8 million in 2005.’
That’s one of the places where I lived growing up. Based on my foggy recollection, the current value of the mall is much more in line with the local economy than the 2005 price was.
Balance Due: Credit-Card Debt Nears $1 Trillion as Banks Push Plastic
Outstanding balances near precrisis levels as banks promote cards and borrowers regain confidence
Credit card balances are on track to hit $1 trillion as more Americans feel comfortable taking on more debt. WSJ’s AnnaMaria Andriotis joins Tanya Rivero to discuss the underlying reasons for the credit boom.
Photo: AP
By AnnaMaria Andriotis and Robin Sidel
May 20, 2016 5:30 a.m. ET
U.S. credit-card balances are on track to hit $1 trillion this year, as banks aggressively push their plastic and consumers grow more comfortable carrying debt.
That sum would come close to the all-time peak of $1.02 trillion set in July 2008, just before the financial crisis intensified, and could signal an easing of frugal habits ingrained by the recession.
The boom has been driven by steady economic conditions and an improving job market that have made creditworthy consumers less reluctant to take on debt. In addition, lenders have signed up millions of subprime consumers who previously weren’t able to get credit.
…
1. Dumb ‘em down.
2. Profit.
You would think these people would eventually learn from history, learn from their own experiences, but no.
(And I am so glad.)
You can’t fix stupid.
So many credit bubbles, so many future debt crises…
“So many credit bubbles, so many future debt crises…”
So many potential fees.
Bring it on. The Dotted Lines await.
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Debt is slavery.
My biggest expenses on my credit card are business expenses. I was not offered a company credit card yet but I don’t mind. I like using my own to get airline miles. Now I use my Bitcoin for most of my expenses that I used to pay by credit card. The bank charges are usually $0. The typical Bitcoin transaction fee is mini scale compared to credit card charges.
My credit card gives me 2% on every transaction. Take that, bitcoin!
Kind of like a carjacker giving you bus fare, Sparky.
I don’t pay them anything.
I don’t pay them anything… just pay off the balance each month.
Doubtful.
Dont forget those airline miles. Free flights to Hawaii.
Speaking of…
Kapolei, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 9% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/kapolei-hi/home-values/
How to discover the ‘magic number’ on a home’s value
Updated 10:18 pm, Friday, May 20, 2016
Buy of the week
Built in 1965, this four-bedroom, three-and-a-half-bath home at 24 Nutmeg Drive features a 400-square-foot glass conservatory that could be used as a wonderful sunroom, as currently furnished, as a gardener’s paradise with growing tables or as a fabulous mix of the two. Set on 2.12 acres with 4,586 square feet of finished space, you’d be hard-pressed to find or build the equivalent home in Greenwich at anywhere near its selling price.
This home’s tax-appraised value of $1,757,600 is 17 percent higher than the selling price of $1.5 million. That’s one clue as to value but, of course, a real estate appraisal would be a far better indicator. The bottom line is the full exposure to the real estate marketplace which gives the ultimate answer.
Sale of the week
My sale of the week at 29 Horseshoe Road was built in 1976 and has been sold four times since 1999 with prices of $839,000, $1.44 million, $1.825 million (at the market’s 2007 peak) and now at $1.81 million. That pretty much reflects the state of our market in Greenwich. Most of our real estate is close to the peak of our “bubble” prices.
http://www.ctpost.com/…/article/How-to-discover-the-magic-number-on-a-7885781.php - 122k -
“Chicago’s pension-fund shortfall just got $11.5 billion bigger.
Thanks to the defeat of the city’s retirement-fund overhaul by the Illinois Supreme Court and new accounting rules, Chicago’s so-called net pension liability to its Municipal Employees’ Annuity and Benefit Fund soared to $18.6 billion by the end of 2015 from $7.1 billion a year earlier, according to its annual report. The fund serves some 70,000 workers and retirees.
The estimate presented Thursday to the board of the municipal fund, one of Chicago’s four pensions, will add to what had been an unfunded retirement liability for the city estimated at $20 billion.
A key driver was the court ruling striking down Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s plan that cut benefits and boosted city and employee contributions. Without it in place, the fund is now set to run out of money within 10 years.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-19/chicago-s-pension-fund-troubles-just-became-11-5-billion-bigger
‘At the outset of this year, in January, VentureBeat tallied 229 unicorns globally, with a total valuation of $1.3 trillion. (The total pool size varies depending on where you look; Fortune’s unicorn list counts only 174, while WSJ’s list has just 145.) It is hard not to see that as a sign of a bubble. And in the U.S., new entrants far exceed exits, as companies that are crowned unicorns now stay private for much longer.’
‘If 2015 was the year of the minting of new unicorns, 2016 has been the year of unicorns losing their horns, and delaying public offerings. Only one U.S. tech company, SecureWorks, has gone public this year. (And the offering “fizzled.”) None went public in the first quarter. In March, Fidelity, which invests in many pre-IPO tech companies through its mutual funds, slashed the valuation of is stakes in previously-hot names like Zenefits, Cloudera and Dropbox.’
‘But most of this trouble is here in the U.S., and the landscape for unicorns still looks plenty sunny abroad, in places like Europe and China.’
‘The waters are friendlier abroad because they’re less crowded. It is especially true right now in Europe. “The thesis there is that there are fewer venture capital and private equity investment professionals chasing deals in one quarter, [less] density,” says Chris Roy, a director at wealth management firm Windrose Advisor, which invests in both early-stage tech startups and public tech companies. “So what that leads to is less bidding on deals and more attractive valuations from a venture capital perspective. So if you have two bidders instead of six or seven, you’re likely to get assets at a more attractive price.”
‘Roy adds that Europe has opportunities not just for hot young startups, but older, more established non-public tech companies, too. “There are great disruptive technologies like Uber entering Europe, but there are also these big, old, legacy brands in Europe that really haven’t gone online,” he says. “So there’s opportunity in Europe for both incumbents and disruptors.”
‘Four of the 10 highest-valued unicorns at the moment live outside America, and the first three are all in China: smartphone maker Xiaomi ($46 billion valuation); ride-sharing service Didi Chuxing, previously called Didi Kuaidi ($25 billion), in which Apple just invested $1 billion; online booking-service China Internet Plus, previously called Meituan-Dianping ($18 billion), and Indian e-commerce giant Flipkart ($15 billion). None of these companies appears to be in any hurry to go public.’
‘great disruptive technologies like Uber’
Taxi’s aren’t tech.
Push button, get taxi.
‘For the first time since the Great Recession, spec-home construction and lending is up in the Asheville area, some builders and bankers say. Sparse inventory, combined with high demand for houses, caused some financial institutions about nine months ago to free up funding for spec homes.’
“It’s important that the building community is able to offer new homes for people who need a move-in-ready home now,” said Brandon Bryant, president and owner of Red Tree Builders in Asheville.’
‘A spec home is one contractors build on speculation, without a confirmed buyer. Developers typically build those types of homes only in areas where they believe a profit will occur.’
‘The number of houses in Buncombe County for less than $300,000 is the lowest in roughly a decade, said Don Davies, founder of Asheville-based Realsearch, a company that analyzes real estate trends. Just 441 with an average asking price of $213,106 existed at the beginning of the month, he said.’
“We opened up a little bit in the more affordable range at $350,000 and lower about six to nine months ago,” said David Kozak, Asheville Savings Bank executive vice president and chief credit officer. He cautioned, however, that the bank green-lights loans for up to 10 spec homes at any one time. “We’re not going hog wild on this,” Kozak said.’
‘In other words, a few dozen spec homes coming on the region’s market is not going to solve Asheville’s ongoing affordable housing crisis.’
‘A Nationwide report published last month concluded the Asheville metro area’s housing market has reached unsustainable levels. The study’s authors ranked the metro area market as the nation’s sixth unhealthiest because of the widening gap between the region’s housing prices and wage levels, said David Berson, Nationwide senior vice president and chief economist.’
‘Finite buildable land is another reason housing costs continue to climb, said Jamie Dose, president of Old Northstate Building Co. in Swannanoa. Because what land is available exists in a mountainous region with rivers, contractors must grapple with complex situations like steep slopes and flood plains, Dose said.’
“The dynamics of the (Appalachian) mountains make it a very complex situation,” he said. “People can get more for land because there’s not much of it.”
‘Dose and his company work with Asheville Savings Bank exclusively, he said. Old Northstate was the first builder the bank restarted spec-home lending with, Dose said Asheville Savings officials told him. Other companies now are obtaining such loans from the bank.’
‘Dose predicted spec-home lending practices would “continue to expand” across the community because “we’re going to have to have the release of capital to meet the demand.”
‘The higher-end market for spec-home construction lending freed up even earlier, said Robert Sulaski, a principal and cofounder of Sulaski & Tinsley Homes. That Asheville-based design-and-build company constructs homes ranging from roughly $475,000 to $1.8 million, said Sulaski, whose company helped develop Biltmore Park.’
“Within the last eight to 12 months — the bulk of which are between $650,000 and $900,000,” Sulaski said, describing when the spec-home loan environment shifted. “We’re consistently building 12 to 14 spec homes,” he said. The buyers “come from other cities.”
‘Sulaski acknowledged those residences don’t fit into the affordable category, but he said the people who purchase them are a boon to the local economy nonetheless. They often are small-business owners who “instantly reinvest” in the community, he said.’
‘They bring parts of their businesses to town, buy cars and other products from Asheville-area companies, and bring in revenue by attracting friends who spend money on expensive hotel rooms and restaurants, Sulaski said.’
‘Richard Whitney, president of Whitney Commercial Real Estate in Asheville, concurred. “That’s exactly my position,” Whitney said. “The money’s coming in.”
‘Consumer confidence continues to rise, he said. “I don’t suspect problems for years.”
‘Plus, more people are buying houses, said Peter Best, senior vice president and head of Capital Bank’s Asheville commercial team. “We’re doing more lending in the speculative market because we’re really centered on the rebound in the housing market,” Best said. “But we’re looking for partners, not whales. We’re not going for home runs. We’re looking for builders with whom we can build relationships.”
‘Richard Whitney, president of Whitney Commercial Real Estate in Asheville, concurred. “That’s exactly my position,” Whitney said. “The money’s coming in.”
And what a position, Dick! (Can I call you Dick?) The money is coming in!
‘Who else benefits from higher prices? Realtors. That is why the NAR, whose sole mission is to ‘help its members become more profitable and successful,’ keeps pushing for even more demand against a constrained supply, which will ultimately drive prices even higher and make commission checks even fatter.’
‘Who benefits from more demand? The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) — which is in the business of providing loans to primarily lower-income borrowers — was able to overcome its chronic funding shortfall by expanding demand through a mortgage premium cut that not only drew in new borrowers by providing them with more leverage, but also poached from other agencies’
This is what I’ve been telling rental watch. The simplest answer fits, so why go wandering around looking for complexity:
November 18, 2015
Greedy Bastards Selling At Inflated Prices
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9354
“Southwest Montana Building Industry Association chairman Brian Popiel said the building industry remains adamantly opposed to the mandatory portion of the proposal, which would kick in automatically if affordable home production falls short. As Popiel puts it, the policy relies on the assumption that builders are ‘greedy bastards selling homes at inflated prices.’ That’s ‘fundamentally misguided,’ he said.”
“The city’s housing consultant, Daniel Werwath, disagrees with the notion the construction industry is running on thin margins, however. Werwath argues Bozeman’s housing market has been distorted by ‘unnatural demand’ fueled by outside money, as retirees and others relocate to the area having sold homes in pricier markets or built savings in communities with higher wages. ‘Houses are not priced at the cost to build them,’ he said. ‘Houses are priced at what the market will pay. People are making good profits right now,’ he said. ‘People could be building lower-cost housing in Bozeman.’”
OT -”The simplest answer fits, so why go wandering around looking for complexity.”
U were an engineer in a past life.
Asheville sucked for jobs 20 years ago. I can’t imagine the COL improving given that real estate there has “gone north”.
RIP Wilbur
Alan Young (1919 - 2016)
A preview of coming attractions once our Permanent Democrat Supermajority runs the country into the ground, just like corrupt, inept Democrat political machines have run Detroit, Baltimore, Chicago, etc. into the ground.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/21/venezuela-how-the-socialist-paradise-turned-into-debt-and-hyperi/
Police misconduct in a Democrat-run dystopian cesspool? I am shocked, shocked!
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/21/oakland-police-misconduct-scandals-pile-up
Did the democrats touch you in a personal area or something? I sense trauma.
I hate paying taxes to support thieves, swindlers, incompetents, and their parasite dependency base.
But you like paying taxes paying taxes to support thieves, swindlers, incompetents, bible thumpers, and warmongers?
You seem to think there is some tangible difference between the parties. It’s kind of sad.
Clearly, you haven’t been paying attention. While the degree of corruption in the Democrat Party is off the charts, I’ve made it very clear I have no love for the neocon/corporate statist/crony capitalist Establishment GOP, or Wall Street’s captured Republicrat duopoly. The big difference is, while the Democrat base willingly embraces and enables crony capitalism - witness their support for Hillary - the Republican base, at least, repudiates it, as evidenced by its rejection of Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and the other clown car occupants.
You may have said something like that, but your endless repetition of the post above totally drowned it out.
Litchfield County, CT Housing Affordability Improves As Prices Crater 8% YoY County Wide
http://www.zillow.com/litchfield-county-ct/home-values/
Context? Greed is always a motive:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUkWViKbCpA
The stupid, it burns.
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/05/20/the-stupid-it-burns/
‘Pick a house, any house. In San Francisco and Silicon Valley, there’s about a 50 percent chance that it’s worth $1 million or more. The odds are less in Alameda and Contra Costa counties, yet the share of million-dollar homes there has nearly quadrupled since 2012.’
‘The cycle “is not sustainable,” said Matt Regan, senior vice president of public policy with the Bay Area Council, which recently conducted a poll showing massive frustration over housing prices among residents.’
“My home has appreciated by double digits in the last four years,” said Regan, who grew up in Ireland and now lives in Pleasant Hill in Contra Costa County. “It’s nice to see all those euros added to my home value when I look at Trulia or Zillow. But at the end of the day, I am incredibly worried that our refusal to permit and build enough housing to accommodate our growing population will result in an economic downturn. … All that appreciation will evaporate very quickly in the next recession.”
And we have a winner! Recessions happen every 6 years or so, and we’re going on 7 since the last one. All those metastasizing million dollar houses on that info-graphic are a recession away from “evaporating”. Luxury apartments will get wiped out too.
A trailor home goes for $5.3M in Malibu, yet Yellen purports to see no bubbles.
http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/hot-property/la-fi-hotprop-malibu-mobile-home-record-20160519-snap-story.html
I wonder what Jim Rockford’s would be worth now.
‘The West is accusing China of manipulating global markets yet again. This time, it wants to delay a much-anticipated Market Economy Status (MES) for China under the World trade Organization (WTO). When China joined the WTO in 2001, it was pre-conditionally designated as a centrally-planned “non-market economy” for the next 15 years until December 2016.’
‘Now the “probationary period” is almost over, but the West is baulking. European lawmakers had voted overwhelmingly on May 12 to designate China as a “non-market” economy.’
‘There is nothing new in the latest trade tirade. Beijing faces the same old accusations of artificially glutting global markets with cheaper products from its state-subsidized enterprises. This results in a Made in China item in every household that matches – in frequency and costs – the annual bankruptcy tally in the West. This is the border-less free market system working at its best, but “laissez-faire” no longer excites its Western originators. In fact, it has conveniently disappeared from the vexing corpus of Western business clichés.’
‘Trade disputes involving China remain of epic, bazaar proportions. They involve items ranging from chicken feet, thermal paper, steel sinks, lawn equipment, automotive radial tires, and VSF textiles to amoxicillin. But it is Chinese steel that is currently agonizing EU lawmakers.’
‘China’s current steel surplus, reportedly weighing over 400 million tons, may take years to be absorbed into various Belt & Road (B&R) initiatives. Until then, Beijing must keep many of its factories intact. That means more Chinese steel in the market, and more insolvency reports from the West. In a classic Catch-22 situation, a WTO-prescribed “rationalization” (closure) of Chinese factories may render many OBOR proposals stillborn due to the ensuing paucity of cheaper steel. Some of China’s Silk Road partners do not have the capital to afford market prices for steel and this seems to be what the EU is banking on.’
‘The Western stratagem seems ingenious enough. Raise trade barriers against China, apply pressure on its exports and undermine the OBOR process over the next two or three years through selective interpretations of a turgid WTO legal codex.’
‘The EU needs its factories running for other reasons as well. Germany alone will spend €94 billion on refugees until 2020. Apart from housing, integration, German language courses and social welfare benefits, this budget includes educational material for adults on proper toilet and gender etiquette. The Mannheim Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) estimates Germany’s refugee crisis to cost €398 billion. When the sum is extrapolated across the EU, total refugee costs may easily exceed €1 trillion by 2020.’
‘If the West thinks that Asian enterprises are going subsidize this madness by applying WTO-style brakes to its industries, then it better think again.’
What about Japan manipulating its currency and markets with Abeonomics?
Woman ‘preferred death’ to voting for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton
Nick Allen, Washington
17 May 2016 • 10:06pm
A woman preferred death to voting for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, according to her obituary.
Former nurse Mary Anne Noland of Richmond, Virginia, died aged 68 last week.
Her obituary in the Richmond Times-Dispatch read: “Faced with the prospect of voting for either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, Mary Anne Noland of Richmond chose instead to pass into the eternal love of God on Sunday, May 15.”
…
She should have joined me in writing in Ozzy Osbourne,
Everyone I know who plans to vote is going to vote for a candidate they dislike in order to thwart the chances of a candidate they dislike even more.
Bill in The OC = WIN
People talk about giving the middle finger to the establishment… Ozzy does that more than any other candidate.
‘Morley Safer, who was a correspondent on CBS’s 60 Minutes from 1970 until just last week, died Thursday at age 84. There will be hundreds of obituaries about Safer, but at least so far, there’s been no mention of what I think was one of the most important stories he ever told.’
‘In 1965, Safer was sent to Vietnam by CBS to cover the escalating U.S. war there. That August he filed a famous report showing American soldiers burning down a Vietnamese village with Zippo lighters and flamethrowers as children and elderly women and men cowered nearby.’
‘The next year, he wrote a newspaper column about a visit to Saigon by Arthur Sylvester, the assistant secretary of defense for public affairs — i.e., the head of all the U.S. military’s PR. Sylvester had arranged to speak with reporters for U.S. outlets, including Safer. Here’s how Safer described it:
“There had been some annoying moments in previous weeks that had directly involved Sylvester’s own office. In the first B-52 raids, Pentagon releases were in direct contradiction to what had actually happened on the ground in Viet Nam.”
“There was general opening banter, which Sylvester quickly brushed aside. He seemed anxious to take a stand — to say something that would jar us. He said: “I can’t understand how you fellows can write what you do while American boys are dying out here,” he began. Then he went on to the effect that American correspondents had a patriotic duty to disseminate only information that made the United States look good.”
“A network television correspondent said, “Surely, Arthur, you don’t expect the American press to be the handmaidens of government.”
“That’s exactly what I expect,” came the reply.”
“An agency man raised the problem that had preoccupied Ambassador Maxwell Taylor and [U.S. spokesman] Barry Zorthian — about the credibility of American officials. Responded the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs: “Look, if you think any American official is going to tell you the truth, then you’re stupid. Did you hear that? — stupid.”
“One of the most respected of all the newsmen in Vietnam — a veteran of World War II, the Indochina War and Korea — suggested that Sylvester was being deliberately provocative. Sylvester replied: “Look, I don’t even have to talk to you people. I know how to deal with you through your editors and publishers back in the States.”
“At this point, the Hon. Arthur Sylvester put his thumbs in his ears, bulged his eyes, stuck out his tongue and wiggled his fingers.”
‘Sylvester absolutely meant what he said. By the time he met with the journalists in Saigon he’d already told some of the key U.S. government lies about the Cuban missile crisis and the Gulf of Tonkin.’
‘You’d think this would have made an impression on American media outlets. And that going forward, they wouldn’t be so “stupid” as to believe what they were being told.’
‘But in the 50 years since, from essentially everything the Nixon administration said about Vietnam, to the Reagan administration’s claims justifying the invasion of Grenada, to the George H.W. Bush administration justifying the Gulf War because Iraqi forces were massed on the border of Saudi Arabia, to the Clinton administration’s wild exaggerations about Serbian violence in Kosovo, to essentially everything the Bush administration said about Iraq, to Obama’s Director of National Intelligence James Clapper denying the National Security Agency gathers data on millions of Americans, most of the U.S. media has been, as Sylvester put it, “stupid.”
When I first studied Russian, back in the early 1980s, my Russian teacher was a recent U.S. immigrant who grew up in fear of a knock on the door to serve notice that her father was about to take a one-way trip to the Gulag Archipelago.
She told us about how the Russian intelligentsia were able to read between the lines of the state-controlled propaganda outlet, Pravda, to parse out the true story.
Fast forward half a century to today. It seems Americans need to read news from the front in the war on terror and other recent U.S. conflicts with the same critical eye the Russian people used during the Soviet era in to uncover the truth in Pravda.
Americans seem collectively unaware how the bottom ranking concern on the list below, buying a house they cannot afford, underlies all the other items on the list.
This is No. 1 financial regret of older Americans
By Catey Hill
Published: May 20, 2016 7:05 a.m. ET
Most Americans are filled with regrets — financial regrets.
Fully three in four, in fact, admit they harbor financial regrets, according to a survey of more than 1,000 adults published Tuesday by Bankrate.com.
Their biggest regret: not saving for retirement early enough (nearly one in five Americans put this in the No. 1 spot). What’s more, among those 65 and up, 27% said this was the biggest regret, compared with 17% of those aged 30 to 49.
…
America’s biggest financial regrets
Percentage who say this is their most significant financial regret
Not saving for retirement early enough 18%
Not saving enough for emergency expenses 13%
Taking on too much student loan debt 9%
Taking on too much credit card debt 9%
Not saving enough for your children’s education 8%
Buying a bigger house than you could afford 3%
…
I suspect
“Buying a bigger house than you could afford”
will rocket up from 3%, doubt it will knock “Not saving for retirement early enough ” of ther top spot though.
The typical American loan owner is far too financially illiterate to connect the dots between a foolish decision to buy too much house and a lack of money to fund other priorities.
Paying a 300% premium for a depreciating asset is never a good idea. They should have stayed in the house they had.
HOMES in Airdrie are the best value for money in Britain in terms of size, new research has revealed.
Lanark, Coatbridge and Kilmarnock are also in the top 10 cheapest places in the UK for prices per square metre, according to Halifax bank.
Buyers are getting 11 metres of property space in these towns for the price of just one metre in posh suburbs of London, such as Kensington and Chelsea.
Airdrie has the lowest typical property price per square metre at £1,019 in the whole of the UK.
Lanark is fourth at £1,040, Coatbridge ninth at £1,071 and Kilmarnock in 10th place at £1,120.
They fall well below the average home price, which now costs £2,216 per square metre.
However, in some parts of London buyers are facing paying over £11,000 for the same size.
Read more: http://www.scotsman.com/news/which-scottish-town-has-the-cheapest-homes-in-the-uk-1-4133577#ixzz49Nvbkwxy
Follow us: @TheScotsman on Twitter | TheScotsmanNewspaper on Facebook
Should Scotland expect equity locusts soon?
The whole of the UK has been stripped bare by equality locusts.
North Dallas, TX Housing Affordability Improves As Prices Plummet 6% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/north-dallas-dallas-tx/home-values/
This is a globalist narrative:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2016/05/21/armed-with-guns-and-constitutions-the-patriot-movement-sees-america-under-threat/
Southern Poverty Law Center and the Anti Defamation League are not civil rights organizations, they are globalist organizations.
Globalism is incompatible with a sovereign United States.
And a disarmed American population is the last step to globalist supremacy.
Goon, I sense some unresolved trauma. Tomorrow I’m going to have a therapist bring a doll to your place of work, and I want you to point out where Triggleypuff touched you inappropriately.
Globalism is bad if it is world government.
Globalism is good when there is no State.
I am a globalist of the second category. Have international stocks? Then you are a globalist. Be consistent. Even most large companies are international and if you want to retire you best invest as a globalist.
A good article. Thanks for posting. This captures the crux of the issue:
“Soper bristles when critics call him anti-government; he said he supports the government but just wants it to follow the Constitution. And he said calling his group “armed” is as relevant as saying its members wear boots, because the Second Amendment gives every American the right to carry a gun.”
I hope cooler heads on both sides prevail.
See the article about the SPLC called manufacturing hate for fun and profit.
Counterpunch had a piece about the ADL operating as a private spy agency.
And globalist Jeff Bezos gives both of these criminal organizations credibility in his allegedly mainstream media Washington Post.
They are not civil rights organizations.
‘Austrian election could produce first EU far-right head of state’
Who is ever characterized as far left? Then it goes on to say:
‘with the eurosceptic FPO running first in opinion polls’
Ah, they want out of the EU. Fanatics.
Now where is the word game of left and right not really observed?
‘There already shouldn’t have been any doubt about the orientation of the current Israeli government and the associated obduracy of that government in blocking any path toward resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The government led by Benjamin Netanyahu is firmly rightist, dominated by those opposed to the relinquishing of occupied territory or the creation of a Palestinian state.’
‘Netanyahu, who comes across as one of the more moderate members of his own coalition, has paid more lip service than some other members of that coalition to the idea of an eventual Palestinian state, but he has made clear with other words and actions that he has no intention of any such thing coming into being on his watch, or of taking any meaningful steps toward such a state coming into being. Now come reports that Netanyahu is offering the defense ministry to former Moldovan nightclub bouncer (and resident of a West Bank settlement) Avigdor Lieberman.’
‘This will bring into the ruling coalition Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party, which even within the Israeli context is usually described as “hard right.”
‘Bringing Lieberman into the government is indicative not only of the overall orientation of that government but also of some larger disturbing trends in Israeli attitudes that the government has fomented more than it has discouraged.’
‘If Lieberman is made defense minister he would replace Moshe Ya’alon, who in recent days has backed the Israeli military in prosecuting (though only for manslaughter, not the murder that occurred) an Israeli soldier who was caught on videotape shooting in the head, at close range, a Palestinian man who was wounded and lying on the ground, already subdued and obviously not a threat. Lieberman has joined other hardliners in expressing support for the soldier. (Netanyahu has visited the soldier’s family to express sympathy.)’
This is interesting. The “far right” guy hasn’t shot anyone in the head, or bombed Gaza repeatedly. But we are supposed to sit up and be alarmed! Alarmed that a group of people want out of a trade deal. Or at least that’s how it is framed. The EU is about sovereignty. You know, those quaint ideals about self determination. Fanatics.
Challenging The Narrative, Ben? You do realize that makes you a “domestic extremist”…today’s (oligarch-owned) Washington Post said so.
I was thinking about Amazon. WalMart had a slowdown in ecommerce recently. I heard that Target’s online sales are a better deal. It’s all so inevitable. It’s cheaper! But I remember when WalMart first came to my town. Man the prices couldn’t be beat. Then we started hearing how WalMart was forcing suppliers to go off-shore. One little town nearby got a WalMart, which put local retailers out of business. Then WalMart closed it and everyone had to dive 20 minutes to the now closest WalMart. Those prices didn’t seem like such a good deal anymore. It occurred to me this ecommerce thing might be like the WalMart phenomenon. Embraced like some new, inevitable boon for consumers, but turned out to be not so great after all.
‘Promotions have become an addiction and consumers won’t settle for anything less. And those promotions may be part of what’s killing retail, at least according to those in that sector.’
“The problem, as I see it, is more of a supply issue, especially in the apparel category. Simply put, America is overstored and overstocked. We have approximately 10 times more retail space per capita than our European counterparts and more direct-to-consumer choices, too,” Urban Outfitters Chairman and CEO Richard Hayne said in his earnings call.’
I had heard this before:
‘We have approximately 10 times more retail space per capita than our European counterparts’
The sound of losing money.
‘It occurred to me this ecommerce thing might be like the WalMart phenomenon. Embraced like some new, inevitable boon for consumers, but turned out to be not so great after all.’
I can just imagine how many more miles UPS and USPS have to drive to get those e-commerce packages to every household that orders them ala carte.
Purse, combined with Bitcoin makes Amazon a better deal online than Target. Huge savings.
Globalism is incompatible with a sovereign United States.
And a disarmed American population is the last step to globalist supremacy.
http://townhall.com/news/politics-elections/2016/05/19/california-senate-approves-sweeping-guncontrol-measures-n2165582
Another day, another Zillow report:
Today’s Zillow report says the value (choke) of my Miracle House increased by $13 since yesterday. Thirteen dollars! I’m a bit pissed.
Zillow did say that the value (another choke) of my Miracle House increased by $5,965 over the past thirty days which averages out to just a squeak short of $20 per day of price increase.
Twenty dollars of price increase over the past thirty days has diminished to only thirteen dollars of price increase since yesterday. So, what should I make of this? Is the price rise topping out? Should I put it up on the market and cash it out while I am still able? Or should I hold on and hope for further price increases?
What to do, what to do?
Oh wait! There is a third option. I like to call this the David Lereah Equity Cash-Out option which is a method whereby one can cash out the risen value of his house while at the same time he can retain the ownership of the house! Yes, this is the answer!
And as a plus, if I were to do this and a lot of other people in my neighborhood were to do this then there will be a LOT LESS houses put up for sale in my neighborhood and these lot less house put up for sale will act to RESTRICT THE SUPPLY of houses that are put up for sale.
And so what will this do to the housing market? Why, if will cause house prices to rise faster and rise further, and these price rises will add even more to the incentive for those potential sellers to hold on to their houses and still cash out the price rises AND it will add urgency to potential buyers to “buy now or be priced out forever” and to engage in bidding wars whenever necessary because, due to the genius of David Lereah and his equity cash-out schemes, few houses will be offered up for sale.
So there it is: The Miracle explained (perhaps).
365 X $13 = $4745, a nice little short-term income bump until you offset it against the ownership costs of depreciation, maintenance, property taxes, etc.
ahhh yes. The crushing losses to depreciation.
And if this Miracle Of Ever Rising House Prices begins to wear thin and do the Unimaginable which is to begin to DECLINE IN PRICE? What then?
Well in my case pretty much nuthin’, but in the case of a lot of people the answer is clear: The house must be put up for sale so that any equity that is left can be cashed out.
During the price rise it was the RISE IN PRICE that was cashed out via the David Lereah Magical Equity Cash-Out Scheme but if the rise in price begins to morph into something else (such as a decline in price) then the David Lereah Plan is no longer viable so the only plan left is to SELL THE HOUSE. For everyone involved in the Magic the incentive is to sell their house. Everyone involved.
And what will this mass selling do to the supply of houses? And what will this mass selling of houses do to the incentive for potential buyers to engage in bidding wars due to the previous shortage of houses that were put up for sale?
Does this question really need to be asked?
‘For everyone involved in the Magic the incentive is to sell their house’
Don’t forget, you can accomplish the same thing by refinancing and taking cash out. Millions of people are doing it. You don’t have to move. I hear on the radio it just takes a few minutes on the phone.
‘For everyone involved in the Magic the incentive is to sell their house’
This applies if the house begins to decline in price; It does not apply if the house rises in price. If the house rises in price the incentive is to keep the house and to cash out the price rise.
The point I am trying to make is a price rise of house will act to restrict the number of houses put up for sale. This is because the rise in price can be cashed out without selling the house.
But if the price rise tops out and begins to decline then there is no longer any price rise to cash out so the next logical step is to sell the house. Selling the house adds to the inventory of houses for sale and this addition to inventory acts to place even more downward pressure on house prices causing prices to decline even more.
So the market turns and this market turn ends up feeding on itself.
If one were to think of owing a house as owning a Money Making Machine (and a lot of people do) then the incentive is to HOLD ON to the Money Making Machine for as long as it continues to make money.
But the moment it is perceived by the owner that his Money Making Machine is no longer making money then the incentive shifts from KEEPING the machine to SELLING the machine.
The market price of the machine will not much reflect this perception if ONLY ONE person puts his machine up for sale but the market price will definitely reflect this perception if A LOT of people have the same perception and act on this perception in the same way, which is for ALL OF THEM to put their machines up for sale.
I hear on the radio
Local AM 850 KOA are the biggest housing whores on my radio dial.
Ten times an hour they run ads for American Financing dot net (tell ‘em Mike Rosen sent you!) so full of blatant lies and misinformation.
Radio Ga Ga by Queen, with video based on the brilliant Fritz Lang film “Metropolis.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azdwsXLmrHE&list=RDazdwsXLmrHE
‘Home appraisal
An important part of refinancing a mortgage is getting a home appraisal. This is simply a written estimate of the value of your home, which lenders use to determine what type of loan you qualify for. While other companies may ask you to provide this information, at New American Funding, we work with a network of licensed home appraisers to deliver the most accurate estimation at no extra charge. This service expedites the home financing process and ensures you’ll get the most precise home value. It also means you’ll have one less thing to worry about when refinancing your mortgage.’
‘Once you’re approved for your new mortgage, the closing process can begin. At that point, the new mortgage becomes your official mortgage of record and the refinance is complete. Your old loan will be paid in full, and you can begin payments toward your new loan.’
http://www.newamericanfunding.com/loan-process.aspx
‘HARP 2.0, also known as the Making Home Affordable program, was created to offer homeowners a chance to refinance without paying private mortgage insurance, but not to avoid foreclosure. The program is available for investment properties, condominiums and vacation home refinancing.’
‘The program assists borrowers who have demonstrated an acceptable payment history on their existing Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac mortgage, but may not have been able to refinance to obtain a lower payment or move to a more stable product due to not having equity in their home. With this new program there is no equity and no appraisal required.’
‘The goal of the refinance effort, as announced by the president, is “to provide access to low-cost refinancing for responsible homeowners suffering from falling home prices.” HARP 2.0 refinancing can help put responsible borrowers in a better position by reducing their monthly principal and interest payments.’
‘Your HARP 2.0 limit is usually determined by your city’s limit for a Jumbo Mortgage, which is typically $417,000. HARP 2.0 was extended to December 31, 2016 while Congress debates HARP 3.0.’
http://www.newamericanfunding.com/home-affordable-refinance-program.aspx
“Ten times an hour they run ads for American Financing dot net (tell ‘em Mike Rosen sent you!) so full of blatant lies and misinformation.”
It’s conditioning to set the stage for blatant fraud, one penniless dope at a time.
Had dinner with my cousin last night, who is a finance professor in The OC. He asked me once again when we were going to buy a house. I said we would possibly consider the next time prices correct, after which he opined that he didn’t foresee that happening any time soon.
I kept to myself my next thought, which was that his profession completely missed the last housing bust until it hit them over their heads like a ton of bricks.
It’s like Bernanke being against TBTF. We know this model requires bailouts. It’s a model which receives a disproportionate amount of Fed and government largesse.
But the attitude of top policymakers is:
1) Wait and see. Let’s see what happens this month.
2) Backstop all of the industries we consider important with taxpayer money and the printing press.
They won’t or can’t, see two steps in advance. Anything that might harm profit to their preferred sectors is bad, and damn the cost of continuing to support it. Forget about unintended consequences.
Their legislative responses are mind-bogglingly complex - and flexible. Because complexity breeds loopholes and flexibility provides discretion, and thus power.
They’re economic hacks on the one hand, with an inability or unwillingness to see more than a few weeks or month out. On the other, their focus is, from observation, protecting large, favored institutions.
This quote from the now head of the Indian central bank is informative:
“There really is no reason other than political pressure for the Fed to take us from bubble to bubble by cutting interest rates to near zero and flooding the market with liquidity. Ironically, the lesson friom the Great Depression - that letting the banks go under is not a good idea - has been so well absorbed by the Fed that it is played for a patsy by the banks.
A rock-bottom nominal short-term interest rate prompts risk-taking and makes price bubbles more likely; it is unclear, however, that it is much more helpful in prompting corporate capital investment and job growth than a somewhat higher but still low nominal short-term interest rate. ” — Raghuram Rajan, 2010
http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2010/06/saving_prudence_and_economics
“Their legislative responses are mind-bogglingly complex - and flexible. Because complexity breeds loopholes and flexibility provides discretion, and thus power.”
Absolutimento!
Don’t be a nattering nabob of negativism. Remember…… Nothing accelerates the economy and creates jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.
With Yellen the Felon printing away all government and Wall Street debts and liabilities, the purchasing power of the dollar will be debased into Weimar-style wheelbarrow money. Read “When Money Dies” to see what’s coming.
In the meantime, the run on dollars gets more extreme.
WIth the orgy of central bank money printing in Europe, Japan, and China, the dollar has the most fingers left in the leper colony.
Davis, CA Housing Affordability Skyrockets As Prices Tailspin 22% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/davis-ca-95616/home-values/
Sunday funnies from TBP. Enjoy!
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/05/22/sunday-funnies-113/
Thanks
My pleasure, brother.
What the Fed has wrought. When all these debts are printed away, gold is going to be a moon shot.
http://www.businessinsider.com/companies-masking-66-trillion-of-debt-2016-5
If you do not want globalists putting you on the hook for the banksters’ gambling debts or flooding your country with Third World immigrants or forcing you and your country into the oligarchy’s supranational unelected bodies and the incorporated neoliberal plantation, you are “far right.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/polls-open-key-austrian-presidential-runoff-055930890.html?ref=gs
While most Sanders supporters seem to be card-carrying members of the Free Sh*t Army, it’s a healthy phenomenon that large numbers of young people are finally waking up and denounching the entrenched corruption and crony capitalism of the Establishment Democrats, just as the Republican base has roundly repudiated the Wall Street water carriers of the Establishment GOP clown car.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/280690-sanders-fans-plan-rallies-near-dem-convention
most Sanders supporters seem to be card-carrying members of the Free Sh*t Army
link please
Irrelevant
A preview of coming attractions when our Permanent Democrat Supermajority gives the collectivist comrades of the DNC a free hand to implement “fundamental transformation.”
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/20/venezuela-breaking-point-food-shortages-protests-maduro
Venezuela, like the lunatic Keynesians at the Fed, tried to print its way to prosperity. Epic fail….
https://www.yahoo.com/news/venezuela-where-hamburger-officially-170-184605711.html?ref=gs
I think I will have a burger for lunch today.
Hope ‘n change = the coastal elites screwing over the flyover states.
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/why-the-flyover-zone-is-hurting-bubble-finance-is-strictly-for-the-bicoastal-elites/
With “far right” parties surging in northern Europe, how long can the globalists count on being able to put the taxpayers of those countries on the hook for endless bankster bailouts, and when will nation-states and sovereign peoples kick to the curb the “former” Goldman Sachs officials running the ECB for the exclusive enrichment of their .1% pals?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/austrian-election-could-produce-first-eu-far-head-220924596.html?ref=gs
Product placement:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/modern-family-teams-up-with-national-association-of-realtors-in-integration-deal-1462449601
Business Insider is run by Henry Blodgett, one of the most infamous touts and cheerleaders prior to the tech bubble crash. So now he sees home prices “approaching” bubble territory…we are dangerously DEEP into bubble territory, and once again, it’s the Fed’s fault.
http://www.businessinsider.com/a-new-housing-bubble-2016-5
Stock buybacks with borrowed printing-press Fed confetti have levitated our Ponzi markets for the past eight years, thanks to ZIRP…but now corporate buybacks seem to be tapering off. Does this mean QE4? Our “markets” will crater without the Fed’s financial crack cocaine.
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/05/22/stock-share-buybacks-now-bought-out-american-enterprise-in-decline/
‘Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist and perma-bull at Charles Schwab, recently acknowledged that “… there has not been a dollar added to the U.S. stock market since the end of the financial crisis by retail investors and pension funds….” Since every buyer has a seller (and vice versa), what group or groups had enough of a buying presence to push the S&P 500 14.2% off of the February closing lows? Corporations. (Seeking Alpha)’
‘Most people assume what has kept the market afloat this year after sinking 11% at the start of the year was a mixture of better news out of China, oil prices stabilizing, and indications that the Fed won’t raise rates as much as thought. But the real thing bouying the market could be something else: Stock buybacks…. The stock buybacks come at a time when major investors including individuals, foreign investors, and pension funds have been selling off their shares, according to a note from Goldman Sachs, amid market volatility and weak oil prices. (Fortune)’
Some wealth effect, eh Janet?
Back when we had semi-honest markets, these kind of stock buybacks (designed solely to boost the “shareholder value” and enable CEOs to collect inflated stock options) were illegal.
A floundering, staggering, moribund economy in terminal decline at the hands of this woman and 12 high priests of cluelessness.
Testify….
Sarasota, FL Housing Affordability Surges As Prices Crater 16% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/sarasota-fl/market-trends/
It looks like the backlash against globalism has begun in earnest as the sheeple are finally saying “enough!” to policies and captured Establishment political parties that are destroying their formerly sovereign countries and distinct peoples.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-22/first-time-world-war-ii-right-wing-anti-immigrant-euroskeptic-set-become-president-a
This is getting interesting. Austria and Viktor Orban’s Hungary could become an island of civilization in a cucked continent of Europe.
Even the New York Times referenced the 10yo boy rape “sexual emergency” in their requisite hit piece on Austria today.
Next month Greece is supposed to get bailed out yet again. What happens if “far right” governments come to power in Austria or other northern European countries (the ones underwriting the bailouts) and refuse to put their taxpayers on the hook for the banksters’ gambling debts? Suddenly, no more can-kicking or extend-and-pretend for the ECB…no wonder the oligarchs are freaking out.
“Loathing of elites” causes small-town Austrians to vote “far right.” Hmm…I guess wanting your politicians to actually represent your views and interests instead of toadying to the .1% places you in the “far right” camp according to our media border collies.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/22/austria-election-far-right-candidate-norbert-hofer-ahead-in-exit-poll
It is rather telling that only a “far right” party will come out _against_ the toadying to the .1%, as you call it. Apparently every other party across the spectrum is in favor of government of the elites, by the elites, and for the elites?
The Establishment parties have been wholly captured by the Oligopoly, with the dumbed-down 95% of the electorate shuffling zombie-like into the voting booths to mindlessly vote for the crony capitalist status quo. But the popular support given to Trump and Sanders show that at least some of the sheeple are finally waking up.
Some of these euro skeptic parties are socialist. In Italy and France, for instance.
Thanks, Ben. Maybe the “far right” message is where the MSM prefers to focus its attention?
In Austria, a lot of people react strongly to expression of pan-German sentiment or suggestions that existing recognizes international borders are illegitimate.
We must force our schools to make suitable accomodation for those who self-identify as goats. (Or those like MightyMike who feel unnatural urges towards goats.)
http://nypost.com/2016/05/22/why-this-man-decided-to-become-a-goat/
So now you’re slandering me. I believe that that’s covered by one of the commandments.
When will our Ponzi markets implode under with weight of their own ficticious valuations and unsustainable debts?
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/05/22/bear-market-tracker-global-stocks-usa-ipo-index/
While it is rare that I find myself fully in agreement with the editorial content of the Washington Post, this opinion piece hits the nail on the head. We have far too many stupid, ignorant voters - 95% by my reckoning - who lack the basic knowledge or reasoning skills to competently exercise their right to vote. Obama Zombies, McCain Mutants, and Romney Retards fall squarely into this category. What a concept: require would-be voters to pass the citizenship test that new immigrants have to pass before they are allowed to vote.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/we-must-weed-out-ignorant-americans-from-the-electorate/2016/05/20/f66b3e18-1c7a-11e6-8c7b-6931e66333e7_story.html?postshare=9311463843952700&tid=ss_tw
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/05/20/the-stupid-it-burns/
What a concept: require would-be voters to pass the citizenship test that new immigrants have to pass before they are allowed to vote.
Brilliant—I’d vote for that.
It’s just another tactic of the rich to keep the poor from voting.
Maybe stupid, easily-manipulated people shouldn’t be deciding the direction of the country. You know, like the kind of lemmings who thought a Soros-backed candidate would bring “hope and change.”
The rich don’t care about that. They just want to run the country with minimal interference from the 99%.
They just want to run the country with minimal interference from the 99%.
Dude, those in the top 1% (But not top 0.1%) are not “rich” as you mean it. They’re still wage earners, and certainly not in a position to buy a lobbyist, influence a politician, etc…
That just leads to a discussion about what level of income is rich. If they have seven times the median household income, that’s a quite a high standard of living.
Housing my friends. Housing.
Union City, CA Housing Prices Crater 9% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/union-city-ca/home-values/
Dude, those in the top 1% (But not top 0.1%) are not “rich” as you mean it.
Here’s another thing. You don’t know what I mean by rich. I probably use the term the way that most Americans do.
Zombie them down and profit.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/legal-highs-law-banned-thursday-psychoactive-substances-act-critics-professor-nutt-a7035951.html
Dumb ‘em down and profit, indeed. Mr. Banker, you must be cackling with glee.
http://nypost.com/2016/05/22/todays-tech-addicted-kids-are-stuck-in-a-world-of-distraction/
Get rid of your American workers, replace them with H1-Bs…shareholder value! The scam continues.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=3408334
Texas judge orders Obama DoJ attorneys to take ethics classes…priceless!
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2016/05/21/texas-judge-orders-doj-attorneys-to-take-ethics-classes/
Importing millions of Democrat-on-Arrival dependency voters is getting kind of expensive.
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/illegals-dwarf-american-households-in-welfare-obama-seeking-17k-for-every-illegal-minor_05092016
SJWs quitting the Democrat Party over its massive, entrenched corruption? Oh, my…someone’s not happy about their paltry share of the loot.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/05/21/clinton-cash-top-democrat-shaun-king-quitting-democratic-party-corruption-revelations/
If you hate rigged, broken, manipulated markets or Wall Street bailouts, you must be far right.
http://www.businessinsider.com/lloyd-blankfein-wrong-about-markets-2016-5
Been a long time since I’ve seen a kick-ass zombie movie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ss63UOd4P84
If you oppose neocon wars and resettling Middle East refugees created by them in the United States, you must be far right.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/05/19/trump_adviser_bernie_sanders_is_correct_that_hillary_clinton_is_not_qualified_to_be_president.html
Anyone who thinks Yellen will hike rates and crash the Fed’s Ponzi markets and asset bubbles has self-identified as a retard.
http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/144700124640/rate-hike-this-chart-says-dont-bank-on-it
Portland Public Schools Ban Textbooks that Cast Doubt on Climate Change
“This is further proof that public schools are not interested in education, only political indoctrination”
Fox News - May 22, 2016
The Portland Public Schools board voted last week to ban any materials that cast doubt on climate change, the Portland Tribune reported.
According to the resolution passed May 17, the school district must remove any textbooks and other materials that suggest climate change is not occurring or that says human beings are not responsible for it.
“A lot of the text materials are kind of thick with the language of doubt, and obviously the science says otherwise,” said Bill Bigelow, a former Portland public school teacher who worked to present the resolution. Bigelow says textbook publishers are yielding to pressure from fossil fuels companies. “We don’t want kids in Portland learning material courtesy of the fossil fuel industry.”
One commenter to the Portland Tribune story responded to the news, saying, “I have never seen a case for homeschooling more clearly put forward. This is further proof that public schools are not interested in education, only political indoctrination.”
Warmists gonna warm.
Yup. And globalists gonna globe!
Anyone opposed to the usurping of our democratic process by billionaire oligarchs must be labeled “far right.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/2-gop-megadonors-were-supposed-to-buy-the-election-2016-5
We the People owe it to the Clintons to let them go out on a high note with a final orgy of influence peddling.
http://www.thecoachsteam.com/2016/05/bernie-sanders-also-thief-if-only-piker_22.html
Between 2009 and 2013, the Russian atomic energy agency Rosatom took control of Uranium One, “…a Canadian company with uranium-mining stakes stretching from Central Asia to the American West.” According to a New York Times article, the Canadian owners of the company had been heavy donors to the Clinton Foundation. Why would the Chairman of Uranium One donate $2.35 million to the Clinton Foundation; money which was not publically disclosed by the Clintons “…despite an agreement Mrs. Clinton had struck with the Obama White House to publicly identify all donors?”
Why indeed? Because:
“Being a strategic asset, with implications for national security, the deal had to be approved by a committee composed of representatives from a number of United States government agencies. Among the agencies that eventually signed off was the State Department, then headed by Mr. Clinton’s wife, Hillary Rodham Clinton.”
The purchase of Uranium One gave Russia control of 1/5th of the world’s uranium production. But of course, sufficient millions had been donated to the Clinton Foundation piggy bank to render the treason involved tolerable to a former President and a serving Secretary of State.
Could a liquidity crisis in Saudi Arabia be the next black swan event to roil global markets?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/22/saudi-financial-crisis-could-leave-oil-at-25-as-contractors-face/
Here we go again - the Greeks making more empty promises of “austerity” in exchange for the ECB giving them more “loans” and taxpayer-funded bailouts to keep kicking the can down the road.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/22/greece-poised-to-give-green-light-to-austerity-to-secure-bail-ou/
German police, who deliberately downplayed the Cologne New Years rapes and assaults on women by gangs of Muslim men, are now reporting an increase in “violent Islamists.” Um, yeah…who’d have thunk that when the globalist Merkel and her Quisling CDU invited over a million Middle East and North African refugees to resettle in Germany, they might bring a certain mentality with them?
http://www.dw.com/en/german-investigative-police-report-increase-in-violent-islamists/a-19276271
I just heard back from a friend who was in Switzerland. Almost 100% of their Syrian immigrants are male.
Just found out about this gang:
http://www.pressherald.com/2016/05/20/authorities-alert-mainers-to-felony-lane-gang/
I wonder how compartmentalized they are.
“Yeah I’m the Tax Man
And you’re working for nobody
But me”
George Harrison, 1966
My Bloody Valentine — Loveless (entire album, 1989):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrMjc4oz0mY
Lowell, MA Housing Affordability Surges As Prices Crater 8% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/lowell-ma/home-values/
I knew this.
No Matter What - Badfinger - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xoke1wUwEXY - 231k -
Never knew this.
Badfinger - The Tragic Story - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6ebpDPSDT8 - 230k -
Wonder what Mao would have to say about what China has turned into.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-22/chinese-part-time-workers-soar-economy-deteriorates
Have a Coke & a smile…but not in Venezuela. How’s that socialist paradise working out for you, sheeple?
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2016/05/venezuela-food-crisis-forces-coca-cola-shutdown-160522141611063.html
Only sheep give up their right to self-defense.
http://www.thedailysheeple.com/germans-rushing-to-buy-blank-guns-over-migrant-fears_052016
You’d have to have rocks in your head to pay these prices for housing right now. Or at anytime in the last 16 years.