May 28, 2016

Bubbles Burst At The End Of Euphoria

A weekend topic on manias starting with Maclean’s written by Bob Thompson. “Every 20 years or so, investor dementia sets in. Memories are wiped clean, allowing individuals to make the same mistakes over and over again. It doesn’t matter if it is real estate markets, stock markets, commodity markets, or tulip markets. They are all the same. Why? Because markets are a reflection of people, and people are hard-wired to have emotional instincts that don’t change. It starts with something actually changing, a new development. There is a valid game changer that starts the boom, and lots of people question whether the valuations of whatever asset we happen to be discussing are overvalued. The underlying asset continues to go up however, seemingly proving the disbelievers wrong.”

“Market bubbles don’t pop during this phase, when there are rational buyers and disbelievers. Bubbles burst, and people’s financial lives are destroyed at the end of the next phase: euphoria. During this phase, caution is thrown to the wind, people’s hard-wired desire to ‘not want to miss out’ comes into full play: ‘I have to get in now, my next-door neighbour is making money and I am not.’”

“During this phase, even the smartest believe that we are in a ‘new paradigm’ and the old ways of valuing things are thrown out. Whatever the asset is, it becomes too expensive for the average investor, which is especially true of real estate. Prices go up, people panic to buy more and they outbid each other in an orgy of greed. Amazingly even the experts begin to extrapolate out recent trends well into the future.”

“Even so-called experts get sucked in during the euphoria stage when all the news is good. That is another absolutely necessary component of any bubble: there is no bad news. The problem is that massive amounts of debt are created in any bubble, and at the end, the market gets crushed under its own weight.”

“Politicians are generally oblivious to the bubble as it is happening, or at least do very little to get in the way of it. After the fact, however, when the catastrophic collapse happens, another necessary component is the blame game. Nobody ever blames themselves for getting caught up in euphoria, which always seems so obvious after the fact. People look to blame someone else for the collapse, pressing politicians and regulators to make an example of someone and to regulate something. Some messenger gets shot, and everyone is happy, and the politicians get to be reactive and the saviours of future generations.”

“Are there irregularities going on right now in the real estate market? Of course there are. Is there some form of fraudulent activities going on or at least a massaging of the truth? The answer is most likely—it is a necessary component of the bubble, an effect of the euphoria. It is also a natural progression of the underlying asset, in this case real estate, which has become too expensive for the consumer to buy. In a competitive system, people will find creative ways to finance the boom.”

An piece by Michael Pento. “It shouldn’t be hard to understand that nearly 90 months of ZIRP has regenerated the equity and real estate bubbles that first pushed the global economy off a cliff back in 2007. In fact, the Fed’s unprecedented foray with interest rate manipulation has caused these assets to become far more detached from underlying fundamentals than they were prior to the start of the Great Recession.”

“The reemergence of equity and bond bubbles are being debated in the financial media. But what is less known to investors is the massive amount of forced hot air that has been blown into the commercial real estate market. For example, commercial real estate prices have increased by double digits for the past six years, according to The National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries. Also, according to the Real Estate research firm Green Street Advisors, commercial property prices now exceed the 2007 prior peak by 24% overall.”

“And in cities such as Manhattan, preferred office buildings and apartment complexes are 60% higher than what existed during the previous housing bubble. Of course, such lofty values have driven National Retail cap rates down to the subbasement of history, at just 6.5%. But this Fed induced famine has caused yield-starved investors to embrace low income streams in the hopes if they ignore this current bubble it won’t pop in the same manner as it did eight years ago.”

“It should be self-evident that eight years’ worth of unprecedented money printing and interest rate manipulations have caused the greatest distortion of asset prices in history. Therefore, the inevitable conclusion is for an unprecedented economic contraction to occur once the party inevitably comes to a close.”

From Bloomberg by Prashant Gopal. “Miami’s crop of new condo towers, built with big deposits from Latin American buyers and lots of marketing glitz, are opening with many owners heading for the exits. A third of the units in some newly built high-rises are back on the market, though most are listed for more than their owners paid in the pre-construction phase. At the current sales pace, it would take 29 months to sell the 3,397 condominiums available in the downtown area, according to South Florida development tracker CraneSpotters.”

“Some are offering homes at a loss as demand cools. Condo purchases from January through April slid 25 percent from a year earlier, while the average price fell 6 percent on a per-square-foot basis, CraneSpotters data show. ‘The problem is that investors are no longer buying, and now they’re going to be looking to sell,’ said Jack McCabe, a housing consultant based in Deerfield Beach, Florida. ‘And what buyers are going to replace those other than vulture buyers looking for deals?’”

“After several price cuts, one Brazilian owner at Related Group’s new Icon Bay tower is offering his two-bedroom condo for $539,000, 7 percent less than he paid in July. It’s now one of 100 listings in the 299-unit building. ‘We are now the most affordable unit in Icon,’ said listing agent Anthony Giuffrida of Elite International Realty. ‘To sell it quick, you have to put it at the right price.’”

“The strong rental market is giving many would-be sellers the opportunity to cover their costs. But there’s also a flood of new, professionally managed apartments under construction. And apartment vacancies in the downtown Miami area rose to 11.8 percent in the first quarter, double the rate two years earlier, according to property-data provider Reis Inc.”

“‘The ticking time bomb is based on rental rates,’ said Peter Zalewski, owner of CraneSpotters. ‘When some of the foreign investors sitting on the sidelines have to dig into their pockets and subsidize renters, that’s the fuse that will lead to a correction.’”

“Of 14 new Miami towers from downtown to Sunny Isles, the share of resale listings ranged from about 7 percent at MyBrickell tower to about 40 percent at 400 Sunny Isles, according to a report this month by Andrew Stearns, founder of StatFunding.com, which provides residential mortgages for foreign nationals. A healthy building should have no more than about 10 percent of its units up for resale at any given time, Zalewski said.’The concern is we’re in a price-discovery phase, and the prices people are trying to get for their condos is a lot higher than the market will bear,’ said Stearns. ‘That may signal a coming price correction.’”




RSS feed

237 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 02:25:34

‘commercial real estate prices have increased by double digits for the past six years…commercial property prices now exceed the 2007 prior peak by 24% overall…And in cities such as Manhattan, preferred office buildings and apartment complexes are 60% higher than what existed during the previous housing bubble’

I’ve mentioned before that the RE bust in the 80’s was mostly commercial RE. Remember the Missouri apartment guy complaining about apartment flippers recently? Here’s another one:

‘Nine months after it finished building District Flats, the Opus Group has put the student apartment building on the market. The housing complex on Locust Street is being listed by Institutional Property Advisors, according to a brochure obtained by the Missourian.’

‘Since the apartment complex hasn’t even been open a year, the brochure includes predicted pro forma numbers, which refers to what would be typical given current data.’

‘Wayne Hawks, a local developer who spoke at a May 16 Columbia City Council meeting in favor of a moratorium on new permits for student housing in and around downtown, told the Missourian that he has concerns about out-of-town developers who quickly sell the properties they build.’

“These big developers are generally in it for the short haul,” Hawks said. “They’re going to be in it for no more than usually two to three years. This is outside money that comes into Columbia because we’ve been recognized as a small city that’s a great place to invest.”

‘He said this isn’t a good thing, however. Hawks worries that big developers are taking advantage of the city. “I wish I could say they really care, but when it’s all said and done, they care about the bottom line: How much they make,” he said.’

‘Nevertheless, Hawks said, this is how big developers work. “Get in, build, sell.”

‘Hawks said at the City Council meeting that he was holding off on plans to build a 100-apartment complex near Stony Creek Inn, saying he was apprehensive about the ability of Columbia’s infrastructure to handle more large developments.’

‘In 2014, Opus built and sold the Nic on Fifth in downtown Minneapolis. That 253-unit, 26-story luxury apartment complex sold for more than $100 million to Boston-based AEW Capital Management, according to the Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal. Opus also sold two other housing complexes in Minneapolis, the Station at Washington in 2013 and Stadium Village Flats in 2012, a week after it opened, the Journal reported.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 05:32:57

This is going on all over the country. Every town and city you can name.

Comment by MacBeth
2016-05-28 06:16:52

Where are all the local planning commissions, chambers and zoning boards?

Just because “developers” and “investors” want in doesn’t mean a city or town has to approve anything.

My mom served on a planning commission for 17 years from the last 1970s into the 1990s. Some didn’t like her much because she squashed a lot of activity. That said, she was re-elected repeatedly and twice was the only commissioner out of seven who didn’t get canned.

These days, it seems that many local boards are on the take.

That so much activity get so easily approved is notable. The unscrupulous populate the entire scene, top to bottom.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 06:24:16

Luxury.

‘That 253-unit, 26-story luxury apartment complex sold for more than $100 million…Opus also sold two other housing complexes in Minneapolis…a week after it opened’

Heck of a job Mel.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by MacBeth
2016-05-28 06:57:43

$100 million.

Where are all the complaints? Where’s the uproar among the townsfolk?

I remember the days when a developer would build a $500 million stadium and receive much negative publicity for doing so.

Now, developers build “luxury” apartment buildings at $100 a crack and no one is up in arms over it? Why not?

Where’s the media?

If I was in this business, I’d be getting the heck out of it right now. Imagine what will happen if Trump gets elected…the media might very well attempt to torpedo the commercial real estate market in response to a Trump victory.

 
Comment by Combotechie
2016-05-28 07:08:37

“Where’s the media?”

Collecting advertising revenue?

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 08:23:47

The media is there in that article, and the developer isn’t being shy about it. You probably won’t hear Bloomberg or the Wall Street Journal talk about it until it blows up, like the Miami Beach condo market is. Even Mr Pento had to pay to have his paper put on the internet.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-05-28 10:24:44

Where are all the local planning commissions, chambers and zoning boards?

Actually, this is happening. In many communities they’ve restricted the number of lots available by reducing subdividing. This created an artificial shortage, hence why in many places houses are still selling in one day, with bidding wars. You would think that in such an environment there would be a torrent of new spec houses in the pipeline, selling like hotcakes, but there aren’t.

This if course results in higher “value” which in most places results in higher property taxes, for everyone. And those local government bodies really like that.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 10:32:05

A poster gave us this yesterday:

‘Gross private domestic investment was down -2.6% while residential investment rose 17.1%.’

‘Here we go again with residential investment propping up the economic growth. The last time residential investment propped up economic growth was during the housing bubble … and that didn’t end too well.’

https://anthonybsanders.wordpress.com/2016/05/27/penny-dreadful-q1-gdp-0-8-growth-vs-0-9-expected-personal-consumption-1-9/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 10:46:04

This is a good place to post this:

‘NLIHC Report, Housing Out Of Reach For The Poor: There’s An Easy Solution To This’

‘Firstly, in some areas, it’s just not the price of building that is the major problem. It’s the price of the land which you may build upon that is. That is, zoning is the problem. The answer to which is to relax zoning and thus make land which you may build upon cheaper.’

‘Secondly, it’s also true that low cost housing is not usually something that was built as low cost housing. Instead, it tends to be old housing that is low cost. New places are quite expensive: it’s as they age that they become cheaper. And no, this isn’t because old places are not maintained and so on. Rather, it’s because as we’ve generally been getting richer we’ve ended up taking some of that new wealth as larger houses. Old houses tend to be smaller and thus cheaper than what people look for in a new build today.’

‘That then means that we don’t actually need to subsidise the building of low income housing today. Instead we can just let rip with building the sort of housing that higher income people want today. Higher income people will move into this larger and more desirable housing, vacating the older buildings they currently inhabit, leaving that to decline in price and be this generation’s affordable housing.’

‘In the economic jargon, housing is fungible, or at least substituitable. We don’t have to build low cost housing in order to increase the supply of low cost housing. We only have to build more housing to do so. And that is something that will be achieved in many areas simply by relaxing zoning regulations and just allowing people to build more housing.’

‘In this case just let people build more housing of any type and the price will come down.’

I’ve been going over this some. Recall the infographic of million dollar houses spreading that came out recently? In just 3 or 4 years it’s exploded in several areas of the country. How many older houses in the San Francisco area are old and super expensive? It’s the same in LA, or San Diego or New York City, Portland or Seattle.

Clearly, this build your way out of a bubble isn’t working. Eventually it will work. And lots of people will get clobbered like what’s happening in Miami, Manhattan and Australia. It would seem to me that in this case we have a bubble, not a shortage. And the way to minimize the damage is restricted loans and the like. Yet we are seeing the exact opposite, which is referenced in the Maclean’s piece; ever easier lending (in the name of affordability no less) until it falls under its own weight. Like what’s going on in Naples Florida.

The build your way out of a bubble is the road to mass defaults.

 
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-28 15:21:11

“The build your way out of a bubble is the road to mass defaults.”

That point has long since past. Its merely a glance in the rearview mirror. Hedge funds, Fannie and Freddie all holding on to massive numbers of excess empty houses, defaulted mortgages, and most importantly millions and millions of mortgages in forbearance. I personally know a half a dozen people in their sixties holding onto two or more houses. Every one of them gyrate the numbers in order to convince themselves to hold on to them. Yet they sink deeper in the hole with each passing month.

 
Comment by redmondjp
2016-05-28 19:11:37

If you want to know why this is happening, here is why:

1) Revenue. Growing/new development is the only way that most municipalities can raise their incomes.

2) Agenda 21 growth plan. Google this and start reading. It is all out in the open for anybody to see. Big developers that are in bed with big government and big transit agencies are making big money off this as well.

 
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-28 19:15:36

Grossly inflated housing prices 300% higher than long term trend and 2x construction costs(lot labor, materials and profit) resulting in tens of millions of excess, empty and defaulted houses and mortgages is what it is.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 06:52:18

‘Higher income people will move into this larger and more desirable housing, vacating the older buildings they currently inhabit, leaving that to decline in price and be this generation’s affordable housing.’

Sounds good, but there is a growing trend in the mania to capture bubble appreciation by replacing older structures with newer, larger, more luxurious ones.

May 4, 2016
Growing Teardown Trend Brings in a Consultant For Zoning, Planning Study

At a meeting on April 25, Princeton Council voted unanimously to hire a consultant to take a hard look at residential zoning in the town. The priority of The RBA Group’s Neighborhood Character and Zoning Study will be the issue of teardowns, which are taking place in just about every area of the town.

The study is in response to concerns of residents and local officials that houses falling victim to the wrecking ball are being replaced by new homes that, while conforming to zoning regulations, are out of character with their neighborhoods.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 06:01:03

Education
Mizzou’s enrollment plummet is more drastic than previously projected
By Koran Addo St. Louis Post-Dispatch
May 5, 2016
MU protests affecting fall enrollment, former president says $25 million lost in tuition and fees

This fall could mark the smallest class of incoming freshmen at the University of Missouri-Columbia in nearly a decade as the school continues to lose students, partly because of last fall’s protests.

The university on Wednesday announced the amount of students paying freshman tuition deposits — a key indicator of coming enrollment — has decreased by 1,470 compared to last year.

It’s nearly 600 fewer students than what was projected in February, when the university was estimating 900 fewer incoming freshmen.

What it means is that Mizzou could have a freshman class of fewer than 5,000 students for the first time since 2007.

In contrast, the university enrolled 7,600 freshmen last fall. That number includes second-year students who did not complete enough credits to qualify as sophomores.

University administrators note that they’ve been expecting a drop-off for some time, as there are fewer high school students in the pipeline.

But last’s fall’s protests have also played a part.

“As we’ve been talking to prospective students and parents, we’ve been told the events of last fall have played a role in their decision-making process,” spokesman Christian Basi said.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 06:17:54

University of Missouri professor filmed during protest asking for ‘muscle’ fired
Posted 6:46 pm, February 27, 2016, by CNN Money

NEW YORK — Melissa Click, the University of Missouri professor who was filmed trying to intimidate journalists during a campus protest, has been fired.

At an executive session Wednesday, the school’s Board of Curators voted 4-2 to terminate Click’s employment. Click has the right to appeal the decision.

“The board believes that Dr. Click’s conduct was not compatible with university policies and did not meet expectations for a university faculty member,” board spokeswoman Pam Henrickson said in a statement on Thursday.

Comment by Combotechie
2016-05-28 07:04:55

A good start, IMO.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 16:49:27

Mizzou’s alumni contributions have plummeted as the school’s craven pandering to the BLM crowd and the prevalence of cultural Marxists like Click have destroyed the school’s reputation.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by MacBeth
2016-05-28 06:24:48

Declining enrollments will soon be the bane of many campuses soon.

Consider that today’s 16-year-old was born in 2000. Birth rates during the several years since have been quite low.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 10:20:04

We’re headed for a perfect storm due to a glut of recently built student luxury housing colliding with dwindling enrollments and student housing demand.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 16:51:03

In our Oligopoly-looted economy, fewer and fewer members of the hollowed-out middle class can take on the levels of debt required to send their kids to college, especially given our Obama-Fed-Goldman Sachs “recovery” that has college grads filling waiter and barista jobs.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 17:10:52

‘West Virginia University opened University Park in August 2015. Half of the complex is a residence hall while the other half is operated as an apartment. The apartment was only 42 percent pre-leased for next year as of May 13, documents show. The four apartment complexes West Virginia University operates as an option for students to live on campus after leaving the dorms appear on track for a noticeably empty year.’

‘As of May 13, only one apartment of four has more than half of its available beds pre-leased for next year, documents show. College Park is 75 percent pre-leased, while the other three are still waiting more than half empty.’

‘Landlords in the area say students not signing leases for WVU apartments is just one glimpse into an over-saturated housing market they don’t think will get any better any time soon.’

“It’s kind of like high school soccer players,” said Frank Scafella, executive director of Campus Neighborhoods Revitalization Corporation, better known as Sunnyside Up. “They kick the ball and everybody runs to it to get into that market. And then it’s overdone, it’s over built and everybody suffers.”

‘Some of the options don’t come cheap. A two-bedroom “deluxe apartment” at University Place rents for $835 a month, a one-bedroom apartment at University Park goes for $1,250 a month and each person in a four-bedroom apartment at University park has to pay $781 a month.’

“It’s better than what was there, but here’s the thing,” Kelly said. “Yes, I think it looks better and it probably functions better and it’s probably higher quality. But who cares [about all of that], if the kids can’t afford it? It’s like a car shop. If you go out and only offer Cadillacs, what are the people who can only afford cheap cars going to do?”

http://www.wvgazettemail.com/news-education/20160528/wvu-having-trouble-filling-apartment-rooms

Somebody isn’t going to be getting a full pension. “Built your way out of the bubble” in action.

 
 
Comment by redmondjp
2016-05-28 19:14:20

Yes. There is a revolution in higher education coming that these college campuses can’t see. It’s called online learning and it’s been around for decades. With the advent of high-speed internet connections, there is no reason for students to leave the nest to get their post-secondary education.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 06:40:03

The technology to do this is fully operational, as you suggest. A recent college graduate in my family was among the first generation of students to exploit the opportunity to live and work far from campus while completing a significant share of her course requirements online.

However, this model may not work for everyone. I have talked to many people who say they would be lost trying to learn college-level material on their own time without the structure of a traditional classroom environment, including access to the instructor’s office hours. And the experience of distance learning creates obstacles for students to form close social bonds with fellow students or professors which is a key part of the traditional college educational experience. There is also the question of whether the person who claims to be taking the online course is actually doing the coursework, but cheating is nothing new and remains a problem in the traditional classroom setting as well, particularly in an era when many instructors let students submit their work electronically from off site.

It is easy to foresee a future where the children of the elite enjoy the personal advantages of an expensive on campus college experience while the children of the 99 percent are left to complete low-cost online college courses in their free time from their parents’ basements. A side effect will be declining demand for traditional on-site instruction, or for campus housing.

 
 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-05-29 06:45:45

Smokes to votes

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 02:30:26

‘another absolutely necessary component of any bubble: there is no bad news’

We were discussing yesterday about no one in the media saying this or that, and I pointed out that some were. It seems more to me that when the mania is really cooking, any warnings or doubts are quickly ignored or brushed aside. After all, lets say some negative statistics or the like come out. There’s an army of REIC companies now to send out interview personnel who will spin it how ever one wants.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 05:10:45

This youtuber collects Australian TV interviews among other things. This one is titled:

“Here’s why China is screwed and so is Aussie property and economy”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syjkByzrRYY

The Chinese commodity trading information about 3 minutes in is interesting. Cotton, soy, eggs!

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 02:44:15

‘I have to get in now, my next-door neighbour is making money and I am not.’

I am grateful to my parents for raising me to not care one lick about my neighbour’s wealth flaunting activities.

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-05-28 05:05:43

it was fun when we were younger cheap gas you go and drive across country with half he distance had literally no speed limit hundreds of miles of cornfields in Kansas and pedal to the metal.

my parents were the same way, you have a lot of freedom when you are not in hock up to your neck. and they enjoyed themselves even now my mom still goes on trips with her friends..my father rode his honda cavalcade 1400 cc motorcycle till he was about 70 then downsized it and rode it till he was 77.

Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-28 05:31:59

Freedom…. Prosperity….. Peace….. Leisure. …

All synonymous with falling prices to dramatically lower more affordable levels.

Comment by redmondjp
2016-05-28 19:16:30

Hi Housing Analyst!

Remember, you only get one new internet handle per month. Use it wisely.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-28 19:29:23

Remember my friend…… Nothing accelerates the economy and creates jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.

Fremont(Seattle), WA Housing Prices Crater 7% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/fremont-seattle-wa/home-values/

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 06:08:22

How’s the DJ business these days? I can tell the economy must be nearing a peak, as I have had recent gigs from contractors who hadn’t contacted me since the 2008 crash.

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-05-28 06:41:01

same here….even got a few gay weddings they have to be the most fun and hilarious ones…plus they spend and tip well.

still the HS college reunions are nowhere near 2008 they almost all double triple class years instead of 3 dj gigs you get 1

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-05-28 10:28:16

‘I have to get in now, my next-door neighbour is making money and I am not.’

Never underestimate the power of FOMO.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-05-28 11:44:54

‘I have to get in now, my next-door neighbour is making money and I am not.’

That reminds me of this from the dotcom bubble.

https://sidoxia.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/everyone-rich-1999.jpg

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2016-05-29 07:16:46

‘That reminds me of this from the dotcom bubble.’

Thanks. I remember that magazine cover now. I seem to remember there were similar types of media image coinciding with the peak of the housing flipping bubble in ca. 2005 but I am not sure.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 03:01:22

“Even so-called experts get sucked in during the euphoria stage when all the news is good. That is another absolutely necessary component of any bubble: there is no bad news.”

One possible reason for the dearth of bad news is that anyone who points it out is labeled a crank at best, or possibly an economic terrorist or an enemy of the state.

“The problem is that massive amounts of debt are created in any bubble, and at the end, the market gets crushed under its own weight.”

Uh-huh…

Credit card debt is nearing $1 trillion. Here’s what you should do
Jean Chatzky
TODAY Contributor
May. 26, 2016 at 7:35 AM

Debt is one four-letter word with a lot of stress attached — especially when it comes after the words “credit card,” “high-interest-rate” or “student loan.” And if it seems to be affecting more people every day, you’re not imagining it.

U.S. credit card debt is on track to reach $1 trillion this year, nearing the record high of $1.02 trillion set in January 2008, right before the financial crisis.

Is it time to worry?

Comment by Combotechie
2016-05-28 05:24:48

“Is it time to worry?”

No, it’s time to go to cash.

Captain Obvious: “The higher it goes the closer to the top it gets.”

Comment by Palm Beach County
2016-05-28 07:43:21

Go to cash? What else is available? Gold? Most people aren’t selling their primary residences. I just did. I’m in Palm Beach County. Now what do I do with the cash? How many years before real estate is a ‘buy’ again. How can you really tell?

Comment by Combotechie
2016-05-28 08:24:52

“Now what do I do with the cash?”

Hang on to it.

Cash = buying power. When the opportunities present themselves then the stash of cash will be there.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-05-28 10:43:30

Then there is Bitcoin, which earlier this morning broke made its one year high price. Some think it’s the Chinese capital control causing this and others say it’s the halving coming up in July.

https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-price-500-congested-volume/

In other news GDAX is operational and those with Coinbase accounts can now log into GDAX. You can easily buy Ethereum or Bitcoin on GDAX without using shapeshift.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-05-28 10:45:41

“It’s time to go to cash” Combo, I remember you pored this every year, even 2009. That was a bad time for cash. Hell, even 2010. It was a get time to move FROM cash to stocks.

Comment by Combotechie
2016-05-28 11:31:30

“’It’s time to go to cash’ Combo, I remember you pored this every year, even 2009. That was a bad time for cash. Hell, even 2010. It was a get time to move FROM cash to stocks.”

This is true but I did not anticipate that a Fed that used to believe in removing the punch bowl when the party got started would morph into a Fed that would go completely nuts with the same punch bowl and load it up to the brim with intoxicants whether the party got started or not.

But we shall see how it goes from here on out with these intoxicants.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Combotechie
2016-05-28 11:35:50

What I missed out on was opportunity costs, a cost I am quite willing to pay in that such costs do no harm to the wallet.

 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-05-28 15:23:17

Parking money in a brokerage account and taking it out of US treasury is how I am changing this year. I have interest in buying good quality companies I can hold for ten years. Toyota is one of them. But I am waiting on a good buy price.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 16:53:31

Looks like Bitcoin is going parabolic on all that Chinese capital flight, Bill.

 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-05-28 19:21:46

Yeah. Someone posted on a different board that there are several events in line past and present and future doing this.

Past: Greece,
Present: China
Future: Venezuela and other SA regimes will go into capital controls.

Other news is that finally IOS is allowing JAXX on iPhones. I think the competition from Coinbase is making competitors raise hell at Apple business rooms of being unfair.

So far you can have JAXX on Droids.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 06:59:50

“This is true but I did not anticipate that a Fed that used to believe in removing the punch bowl when the party got started would morph into a Fed that would go completely nuts with the same punch bowl and load it up to the brim with intoxicants whether the party got started or not.”

It was hard to see that one coming.

However, thanks to the quarter century long experiment with Japan’s economy plus China’s recent example, we know that government asset price stimulus programs can fail to achieve their intended purpose.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-29 07:15:33

I posted this the other day:

‘The putative savior of the financial crisis, quantitative easing, was a Faustian bargain. The Fed got to inject trillions of dollars into the financial sector while simultaneously “sterilizing” the very same money. It did this by incentivizing banks to deposit their digital cash at the Fed, paying above-market interest rates.’

‘Currently, the Fed pays 0.50% annually to banks to keep that money out of the economy. It might not seem like much, but the comparable rate paid by the U.S. Treasury for T-bills is 0.28%. In other words, the Fed pays banks nearly twice as much as the Treasury does.’

‘But the Fed refuses to acknowledge this. Each year, the Fed Chair is required by law to testify twice in front of Congress. Both Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen have used the word, “comparable,” to assert disingenuously that the Fed is paying an amount of interest similar to what banks could earn in the marketplace. It’s possible to “compare” apples to oranges, but it doesn’t mean they’re similar.’

‘Currently, the Fed is paying banks about $12 billion per year in interest. If the Fed raises rates two times (by 0.25% each time) and the level of reserves stays the same, that number doubles to $24 billion. If we are to believe San Francisco Fed President John Williams, who targets an eventual 3.0% for short-term rates, then that’s $72 billion per year to the banks. This is a huge expenses for the Fed. Subtract from that the $90 billion (plus) per year in operating profits, and the amount of money the Fed pays to the Treasury gets pretty small.’

‘But it gets worse. The Fed is taking capital losses on its $4.3 trillion bond portfolio, and those losses will eventually accelerate. When the bonds that the Fed holds mature, it realizes losses because it paid above-market prices for most of them to begin with.’

‘Bottom line: No matter how you slice it, the Fed payments to Uncle Sam will not only drop off a cliff someday, they could also go negative…The crisis comes when Congress realizes the Fed is paying the government nothing (or next to nothing) while shelling out billions to the banks.’

I looked it up:

‘Faustian bargain [( fow -stee-uhn)] Faust, in the legend, traded his soul to the devil in exchange for knowledge. To “strike a Faustian bargain” is to be willing to sacrifice anything to satisfy a limitless desire for knowledge or power.’

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 07:34:29

‘Currently, the Fed pays 0.50% annually to banks to keep that money out of the economy. It might not seem like much, but the comparable rate paid by the U.S. Treasury for T-bills is 0.28%. In other words, the Fed pays banks nearly twice as much as the Treasury does.’

Is it possible the Congress could require the Fed to offer individual households the same return on savings they pay to Megabank, Inc? What’s the legal basis for offering above-market rates to favored insiders?

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-29 07:39:02

‘The Fed got to inject trillions of dollars into the financial sector while simultaneously “sterilizing” the very same money. It did this by incentivizing banks to deposit their digital cash at the Fed, paying above-market interest rates.’

Don’t forget that while this is going on, the Fed was buying treasuries, collecting the interest, and giving it back to the federal government. As we discussed before, the more they borrow, the more “revenue” they got from the Fed. Talk about incentivizing!

Hold on here. What’s this sterilizing stuff? What’s the point of injecting trillions into the financial sector (wall street?) so they can turn around, deposit it with the same Fed, and collect twice the interest treasuries are paying?

These trillions, is this QE? So did the Fed buy all those treasuries and MBS from investment banks, is that the injection? And then these sellers deposit the money they received from the Fed because of this sweet higher than market interest rate?

I’ve always wondered, where did Bernanke and friends get this $4 trillion?

I was playing with a mortgage calculator yesterday. If I borrow $200,000 and pay it off with a 20 year loan instead of 30, my payments would be $200 more a month. But that would save me $74,000 in interest. This reminded me of how much difference even 1% in interest rates makes over the life of a mortgage. When I started this blog, IIRC short term CD rates were 4 or 5%.

Anyhoo, it’s all so complicated and I’m sure they would never screw up over at the Federal Reserve.

 
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-29 08:06:17

I think you just crystallized the entire Fed charade and fiction. Thank you.

The Fed bought all the junk at massively inflated prices, the sellers took the proceeds and deposited at the FED for double the returns. In parallel they’re making the market for treasuries(buying down the market rate), and then handing it back to the Treasury.

How can it be that Madoff is in jail?

 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-05-29 08:21:50

it’s the American way.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-29 08:26:21

Half of the QE’s went to mortgage backed securities. Did they buy those on the market, or special deals with special institutions? Are the borrowers paying their mortgage? Cuz if they aren’t, those MBS are worth a lot less than treasuries.

It’s genius really. The central bank makes money, wall street makes money, the government borrows AND makes money. But as the article says, it’s a short term arrangement taken to the long term. Low interest rates are killing the banks (maybe that’s why they got this deal?). Low rates are killing pension funds and life insurance companies. Oh, I forgot, they’ll dive into luxury apartments!

Steve Forbes said something like, “central banking is believing you can get something for nothing.” One of those bankers said the other day, “We are the magic people.”

 
Comment by Neuromance
2016-05-29 15:02:37

Ben Jones: Steve Forbes said something like, “central banking is believing you can get something for nothing.” One of those bankers said the other day, “We are the magic people.”

This is something I’ve been trying to put my finger on.

• The Fed (and government) want to have the economy in a particular state: full employment, stable prices (they want a certain level of inflation too).

• It seems that something happens to increase unemployment, reduce the purchasing power, and increase the ‘malaise’ of the population.

• The Fed in particular then starts its interventions - asset purchases and money printing. The government ramps up its deficit.

But each action seems to have unintended consequences which, net result, don’t increase purchasing power/decrease the malaise of the population, though they have repeatedly taken credit for the drop in the headline unemployment rate, U3, attributing the result to their ministrations.

However, labor force participation is at historic lows. Some attribute this to Boomer retirement, but very coincidentally, it started right at 2008. And labor force paticipation has been climbing for 55 and older since 1994, and dropping for all age cohorts below 55 since 1994. Since 1994… after the first recent debt/real estate crisis.

It’s almost though there is an underlying factor, call it ‘Z’, that is the true driver of the economy. The Fed and government can print and borrow and direct money to their favored companies and sectors in an attempt to influence ‘Z’, but all they wind up doing is helping the targets of their ministrations and creating a myriad side effects leading to no change in ‘Z’. Like pushing down one place on a balloon leads to another section bulging out.

Every large-economy central bank has a similar, if not identical, playbook. Historically, other economies could acts as sinks for the malaise in a particular economy. Now, they don’t behave as ‘malaise sinks’. They too export inflation or deflation or excess goods right back out of their country.

What might ‘Z’ be? Perhaps it could be called a measure of ‘economic freedom and hope’. Some combination of leisure time, purchasing power, employment options, sense of purpose and hope for the future, for themselves and their progeny.

Anyhoo, the Forbes observation seems to nail it. In physics, they say TINSTAAFL (There Is No Such Thing As A Free Lunch). If the economy, in its true form, is an extension of physics, of physical realities, and not just a figment of the human imagination, it could be that asset purchases, pointless work like digging up buried bottles of money, and firehosing money at select companies is not going to create the ‘yadda yadda’ that puts the economy in a healthy, sustainable state.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-29 15:25:51

Greenspan did a lot to create the stock bubble in late 1990’s. It isn’t well know, but check out “Greenspans Bubbles”. Rates were kept too low for too long and we got a housing bubble. Now they’ve gone and done a lot more bubble creation.

I can say this about getting a busted economy going. When the oil states went down in the 80’s, there was no bail out. Every major bank in Texas failed. Probably close to 100% of the S&L’s. It was years before the empty buildings, apartments and malls were dealt with. There was no stimulus, and oil wasn’t going to come back.

People learned to live with a lot less. They moved to where there were jobs, repaired credit. Little by little, we got some traction here and there. “They’re hiring down in So and So.” Real estate got really cheap! Dallas, Austin, everywhere. I remember seeing a 4 story office building in Deep Ellum (Dallas) asking $25,000 in around 1987.

I’m not saying it was fun, just the opposite. But there was no federal help to speak of and the state was broke. It was a natural, unavoidable take your medicine kinda thing. And if we had chosen a similar course in 2008, we’d probably be back on our feet by now in a normalized economy.

 
 
 
 
Comment by rms
2016-05-28 07:04:50

“Credit card debt is nearing $1 trillion. Here’s what you should do”

There isn’t a young woman alive who wants to hang with a looser [sic] who is struggling to pay-off his credit card debt; phuc ‘em. Yeah, walk away is the obvious end-game here.

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-05-28 11:41:37

lately its the woman who is up to her neck in new clothes, car and debt so is she a loser too? or do you just live with them because you dont want to be responsible for her debt by marrying her?

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 07:40:17

This is a new development?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 03:09:39

“It should be self-evident that eight years’ worth of unprecedented money printing and interest rate manipulations have caused the greatest distortion of asset prices in history. Therefore, the inevitable conclusion is for an unprecedented economic contraction to occur once the party inevitably comes to a close.”

It is the aura of inevitability for a future economic contraction at the end of the ZIRP-fueled boom which should convince the smart money that the Fed and other central banks will prolong ZIRP as long as possible, even potentially sliding into the uncharted territory of NIRP, rather than risk turning the boom into KAPOOM by making good on announced liftoff plans.

Comment by Neuromance
2016-05-29 16:32:19

A couple of other possibilities:

1) They want to raise rates, in order to be able to lower them, the change in rates is the thing that generates the perceived benefit. Yellen has explicitly stated the desire to be able to lower rates to combat future recessions.

2) Also, there could be some new thinking at the Fed, along the lines of what Raghuram Rajan, former UofC economist, now head of the Indian Central Bank:

“There really is no reason other than political pressure for the Fed to take us from bubble to bubble by cutting interest rates to near zero and flooding the market with liquidity. Ironically, the lesson friom the Great Depression - that letting the banks go under is not a good idea - has been so well absorbed by the Fed that it is played for a patsy by the banks.

A rock-bottom nominal short-term interest rate prompts risk-taking and makes price bubbles more likely; it is unclear, however, that it is much more helpful in prompting corporate capital investment and job growth than a somewhat higher but still low nominal short-term interest rate”

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2010/06/saving_prudence_and_economics

Meaning that rates below a certain critical level merely creates a higher return on that debt for non-investment purposes. Things like levering up companies to get very large paydays now for the corporate leadership (along the lines of ‘Bankruptcy for Profit’ - see Akerlof, stock buy-backs and the like). Purposes which turn out to put drags on the economy and lower employment.

Rates slightly higher can continue to make investment debt a profitable alternative (provided such opportunies exist), but not frivolous, lever-the-company debt.

We hardly think of Bernie Sanders as a carnivorous capitalist, but his wife’s actions in levering up the college (Burlington College) which she ran is blamed for the shutdown of that college.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 03:19:31

“The reemergence of equity and bond bubbles are being debated in the financial media. But what is less known to investors is the massive amount of forced hot air that has been blown into the commercial real estate market. For example, commercial real estate prices have increased by double digits for the past six years, according to The National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries. Also, according to the Real Estate research firm Green Street Advisors, commercial property prices now exceed the 2007 prior peak by 24% overall.”

If I understand the terminology, then ‘commercial real estate’ encompasses residential investment properties such as apartments and rental housing. And so one of the artifacts of all the ‘forced hot air’ driving commercial real estate prices skyward is crushingly high rents grinding household-level affordability into the ground.

Has anyone considered how pricking the commercial real estate bubble could have the desirable side effect of making both rents and home purchase prices more affordable?

Comment by Combotechie
2016-05-28 05:31:28

“And so one of the artifacts of all the ‘forced hot air’ driving commercial real estate prices skyward is crushingly high rents grinding household-level affordability into the ground.”

But it creates rental income in the process - both actual rental income and imputed rental income - and these two types of income go into the computation of our great nation’s GDP, and in doing so these GDP numbers can magically convert dismal things such as unaffordability into wonderful things such as growth and prosperity.

Comment by Combotechie
2016-05-28 06:39:46

If one-third of the housing stock are rentals then that means that two-thirds of the housing stock is either owned or in the process of being owned.

Whatever the choking amounts of actual rental income that is actually paid by renters by the one-third translates to similar amount of imputed income to the two-thirds - imputed income that cannot be spent but nevertheless is counted the same as if it could.

This is an enormous amount of phantom, unspendable income if anyone cares enough to think about it but it factors into the computations of GDP just the same.

The amusing part of this GDP math is the use of decimal points. The joke is that these guys use decimal points when they compute GDP in order to demonstrate to the world that they have a sense of humor.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 03:25:42

‘The problem is that investors are no longer buying, and now they’re going to be looking to sell,’

Kudos to Ben for digging up the rare articles that document the shift underway of real estate investors from the demand side to the supply side of the market.

Once high profile news sources like the Wall Street Journal eventually catch on to such trends, you can stick a fork in the Echo Bubble.

Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-28 11:15:20

can.not.be.beat.

 
 
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-28 03:29:11

“That is another absolutely necessary component of any bubble: there is no bad news.”

Agreed. Here’s some very good news.

Miami Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 9% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/miami-beach-fl/home-values/

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 03:32:14

One Year After Bubble Burst, China’s Stock Market Has Gone Quiet
Kana Nishizawa
May 25, 2016 — 9:00 AM PDT
Updated on May 26, 2016 — 1:08 AM PDT
Volatility on the Shanghai Composite is lowest since 2014
State support limits losses as valuation concerns cap gains

It’s been almost 12 months since China’s equity market embarked on a precipitous decline that would erase $5 trillion of value, and the nation’s stocks have rarely been this subdued.

For the past two weeks, the Shanghai Composite Index hasn’t strayed more than 51 points from the 2,800 level. Volatility on the gauge is the lowest since December 2014, while turnover has crumbled to levels more than 80 percent below last year’s peak. Margin debt, which fueled 2015’s bull market, has dropped by more than 1.4 trillion yuan ($213 billion) on China’s equity exchanges as investor interest dwindled.

The muted trading masks convulsions in the nation’s financial markets as an economic slowdown deepens and the authorities step up measures to prevent capital outflows. Rising corporate defaults are prompting concern over the size of China’s debt burden, commodity prices are plunging as another speculative mania ends, while the yuan is heading for its steepest losses this year. While state support for the stock market is limiting declines in the benchmark gauge, RS Investment Management says expensive valuations mean there’s little incentive to chase gains.

“You still have an artificially high P/E multiple and that needs to come down as the A-share market adjusts to fundamentals,” said Tony Chu, a Hong Kong-based money manager at RS Investment Management, which oversees about $17 billion. “Pain is likely going to continue.”

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 03:54:11

The Financial Times
Emerging Markets
Chinese firms’ financial outlook worsens at record rate
Credit ratings suffer record deterioration, says Moody’s
EM Squared
yesterday
James Kynge

The financial outlook for Chinese companies is deteriorating at a record rate as a large debt overhang accumulated since the 2008 financial crisis and waning corporate profits presage an “extended period of sub-par economic growth”, according to Moody’s, the credit rating agency.

The agency more than quadrupled the number of Chinese debt issuers it classified as having a “negative outlook bias” on their credit ratings at the end of the first quarter of this year, compared to the end of 2015. A negative bias includes both those companies with ratings on review for a downgrade and those with a negative outlook on their rating.

“The share of rated issuers in China with a negative outlook bias … has increased to a record high of 69 per cent,” according to a Moody’s report authored by Michael Taylor, Moody’s chief credit officer for the Asia Pacific region, and colleagues. This proportion was up from 15.7 per cent at the end of last year and 33.3 per cent at the end of March this year (see chart).

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 04:00:45

Are commodities signaling a Lehman-sized meltdown? Japan’s Abe thinks so
By Barbara Kollmeyer
Published: May 26, 2016 6:44 a.m. ET
It’s been a painful drop for emerging markets as global commodities prices fell 55% from June 2014-January 2016
Cate Gillon/Getty Images
A financial news update in Canary Wharf on September 15, 2008 in London.

Only hours after Brent oil prices shot past $50-a-barrel for the first time in months, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe warned that the past few difficult years for commodities in general could be a red flag for another global financial crisis.

Abe made the comments while hosting a meeting of the Group of Seven leaders on Thursday in Ise-Shima, Japan, according to a report from Reuters.

Abe showed his fellow leaders data charting a 55% drop in global commodity prices between June 2014 and January 2016. He said that’s similar to how much prices fell between July 2008 to February 2009 after Lehman Bros. went bankrupt and triggered a global financial crisis.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 04:14:52

The latest binge of Japanese electronic printing press monetary stimulus is shaping up as a crushing failure. Who could have imagined it wouldn’t work any better than any of the many previous attempts over the past quarter of a century?

Comment by Resistance
2016-05-29 23:48:08

Paul Krugman?

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 04:05:27

China commodities rally but steel, iron ore face worst month
By Reuters | 27 May, 2016, 15:02 hrs IST
The gains followed a spike in U.S. cotton futures to a three-week high overnight on hopes that China may boost import quotas, helping U.S. and other top exporters.

MANILA: Chinese commodities rallied broadly on Friday in a rare respite from a weeks-long reversal that has hit steel-linked materials particularly hard, with steel and iron ore futures still headed for their biggest monthly falls on record.

Analysts pinned the gains on short-term production curbs in China’s biggest steelmaking city and an “oversold” market after a selloff that has left some commodities nursing losses of more than 20 percent in just five weeks.

 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-05-28 04:10:40

Super low inventory in 22151
Gov workers await Hilary

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 04:24:41

Election 2016
Hillary Clinton’s Lead Over Donald Trump Narrows
Republican support boosts presumptive nominee’s chances against the former secretary of state in new poll

A new WSJ/NBC News poll shows Hillary Clinton’s once double digit lead over Donald Trump in a hypothetical general election matchup narrows to just three percentage points. Here’s why.
Photo: AFP/Getty Images

Comment by Combotechie
2016-05-28 06:50:44

FWIW: Here’s Scott Adam’s (Scott Adams =
the guy who does “Dilbert”) predictions from December of last year:

“Ranking the Best Political Pundits of 2015

“Posted December 30th, 2015 @ 9:58am in #Trump

“As regular readers know, 100% of my political predictions for 2015 were correct, thanks to the Master Persuader filter. For example, I predicted…

“1. Trump would gain popularity and win the nomination, not fizzle as every other pundit predicted. (I predicted it in August, based on his skill set. So far, so good.)

“2. The Jeb Bush “low energy” kill shot would end Bush. (First to predict it.)

“3. The Fiorina top in her poll numbers (after she paired her own image with a dead baby)

“4. The Carson top in his poll numbers (after Trump did his famous belt-buckle speech)

“5. The Clinton top in her poll numbers (after Trump noted how many women her policies have allegedly killed)

“6. Trump’s “nice guy” move that involved going into a crowd to personally help a wounded warrior with the Veteran’s system.

“7. You will start to see Freudian slips in the media calling Trump “President Trump.” And so we have.

“8. My 3D predictions – no matter how accurate – will be ignored by the standard 2D media. Check!

“9. [Update] My prediction months ago that Trump’s persuasion skills would set off a swarm of competing (and wrong) explanations for why Trump is defying expectations. This is a classic “tell” for cognitive dissonance on a mass scale, which is what we are seeing. That is the fingerprint of a Master Persuader. Here’s the latest explanation, for Trump’s success – that he’s a narcissist addicted to social media pellets, or something.

“By this time of the year you would expect a list of “Best Political Pundits of 2015″ to pop up somewhere. Try a Google search and discover that it doesn’t exist, because if it did, the only name on it would be mine, and that can’t happen in the 2D world. That would be like stock brokers admitting that index funds are a better bet.

“As I hinted in a prior post, Trump isn’t just changing politics. He is changing our understanding of reality by brushing aside the illusion that humans use reason to make important decisions. This extends well beyond politics.

“To put a size on Trump’s skill level, I believe that as president he could depose a foreign leader with words alone. It would not work in all cases. But his skill set in persuasion is, in my opinion, weapons grade. I have never seen that level of skill. Luckily, he has a history of opposing unnecessary wars. I can’t think of a better way to prevent a war than removing a dictator with words alone.

“I remind new readers that I do not endorse Trump or anyone else for president. I’m not smart enough to know who would do the best job. All the candidates look qualified to me, assuming their health holds out.

“But I am a certified hypnotist with decades of study in the field of persuasion. My predictions are based on my knowledge of that skillset and the recognition that Trump has mastered those tools. (He says so often when speaking of his negotiating skills and how he “knows psychology.”) In other words, I see that Trump is bringing a flamethrower to a stick fight, but most of you only see a stick in his hand and a lot of random, rude behavior. I can tell you with certainty that none of it is random.

“Prediction is easy once you see the flamethrower.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 06:57:03

Justin Raimondo had this at Antiwar.com:

‘Why I Didn’t Vote for Trump’

‘And why I’m cheering on the movement he created’

‘Take a look at this interview by CBS News reporter Sopan Deb with some randomly selected attendees at a recent Trump rally:

“Deb: What brings you here to the Trump rally?
Trump supporter: This is about nationalism versus globalism.
Deb: What does that mean?
Trump supporter: That’s the political crux of the future.
Deb: Okay, what does that mean?
Trump supporter: Left and right are dead. Republican vs. Democrat is dead. Trump killed them both. It’s all about – either we’re going to be a nation-state with our own sovereignty or we’re gonna be at the whim of global interests, who have their own agendas, who don’t give a damn about anyone’s heritage, or anyone’s legacy, culture, customs, laws, and history. We’re gonna preserve that.”

‘For all the sneering by the elites at the supposedly ignorant masses who support Trump, that’s a very articulate and succinct summation of Trumpism. It is a cry of protest against the transnational elites who think they can determine the fate of nations: it is, in short, American nationalism at its best. And the implications for US foreign policy under the influence of this nationalism is good news for anti-interventionists.’

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 07:12:42

‘As I hinted in a prior post, Trump isn’t just changing politics. He is changing our understanding of reality by brushing aside the illusion that humans use reason to make important decisions’

I read that post and it was then I changed my take on what was going on. He said Trump had a very calculated and sophisticated plan. What we saw on TV, especially initially, seemed chaotic, unscripted, and certainly not what we are used to from talking heads and politicians. It was like a sniper. Remember how he dispatched Rand Paul in a debate?

“You’re not having a very good night, are you?”

Rand folded like a snowflake in the desert.

There have been some discussions on Antiwar.com about this angle; how do you get away with calling for an end to Nato, stop regime change, etc? You have to preemptively destroy the charge you are weak. Trump did that. He took the immigration issue, at a time when almost every other candidate was for amnesty, and made it his own.

Any one of these people could have looked at a poll and known the public wanted to clamp down on illegal immigration. Why were they 90%+ on amnesty? I’ve asked here for years; why doesn’t at least one candidate come out against globalism? I talk with people all the time who think it sucks.

IMO, Trump played some jujitsu with the powers that be. He used their massive weight against them, on key issues where they were naked as a jaybird.

 
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-28 07:42:17

Not only that but with every word he uses very effective but fundamental tactics at gaining the upper hand. It’s no different than a street fight. Truthfully he cannot be beat.

 
Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2016-05-28 10:05:55

… and they still have no idea what is happening.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 10:27:38

‘For all the sneering by the elites at the supposedly ignorant masses who support Trump, that’s a very articulate and succinct summation of Trumpism. It is a cry of protest against the transnational elites who think they can determine the fate of nations: it is, in short, American nationalism at its best. And the implications for US foreign policy under the influence of this nationalism is good news for anti-interventionists.’

It sounds great, until it morphs into ‘America, America, Ueber Alles.’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 10:51:12

You are saying our constitution can’t protect us. If true we have a bigger problem than this election. Or we can elect a neocon like Clinton. These neocons have a way of screwing everything up though.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 15:16:00

No, Ben, I am actually optimistic our Constitution will protect us, regardless of which of the two leading candidates, neither of whom I plan to vote for, gets elected.

 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-05-28 15:37:12

Nationalism is the ideology of taking credit in $hit you did not do and hating people who had nothing against you.

 
Comment by junior_bastiat
2016-05-28 16:04:01

I’ve been amazed at Trumps abilities throughout this political campaign. I had no idea what to make of him initially (I was more of a Cruz or maybe Walker guy in the early rounds), but recognized he has unmatched skills as Scott Adams notes.

It does seem like he has also hypnotized the media - I think they fear his powers of persuasion - Adams is right again - he could likely deliver a death blow to the companies that monopolize the media, hence their fear.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 16:07:30

Nationalism is preferable to globalism. Especially if you have a constitution that works for liberty. My preferred form of government would probably be the city state like the early Greeks had. You could punch your politicians in the nose if they acted up.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 16:44:40

“You could punch your politicians in the nose if they acted up.”

Hear, hear!

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 17:03:56

The choice is Trump or Goldman Sachs. Trump is a flawed candidate and human being, but he has at least the potential to be his own man and not just another feckless Wall Street salad-tosser like HillaryJeb. But don’t think for a minute those of us who love liberty and have sworn an oath to defend the Constitutution against all enemies foreign and domestic will hesitate to turn on him if he betrays his oath of office as President. I could also do with a lot less buffoonery and gratuitous insults against entire categories of people, i.e. Mexicans and Muslims, from Trump, who as Ben noted, is making inflammatory ad hominem comments that can’t be taken back and that only serve to lower Trump’s stature and moral authority if he is elected. God knows, we need somebody who is capable of uniting this fractured, polarized country.

 
Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2016-05-28 17:34:41

” You could punch your politicians in the nose if they acted up.”

The basic premise of democracy is, ‘there are more of us than there are of you, so do as we say or we’ll kill you.’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 17:38:17

I never had to have anyone join me in punching a nose. And I never punched one that didn’t deserve it.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 07:16:07

“I could also do with a lot less buffoonery and gratuitous insults against entire categories of people, i.e. Mexicans and Muslims, from Trump, who as Ben noted, is making inflammatory ad hominem comments that can’t be taken back and that only serve to lower Trump’s stature and moral authority if he is elected.”

I have heard many say that they admire Trump for saying what’s on his mind, rather than following the more scripted approach of rival politicians. While this may win favor among the part of the American electorate that is fed up with political correctness, the same qualities in a President could prove disastrous.

 
Comment by scdave
2016-05-29 08:55:20

Trump is a flawed candidate and human being ??

Thats a understatement….

the same qualities in a President could prove disastrous ??

Which is why, at the end of the day, IMO, he will get crushed…

I have read, but not sure its true that Trump has received roughly 11-mil votes…Its going to take 55 mil votes to win the Presidency…Where are the other 44 mil votes going to come from after eliminating all the democrats, the majority of the woman, hispanics and Muslim vote ??

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 09:36:09

We might get a pre-election preview of whether the U.S. Constitution is strong enough to withstand Trump’s brand of populism.

Judge bashed by Trump orders release of company records
By Tom Hamburger
May 28 at 5:45 PM

A federal judge has ordered the release of internal Trump University documents in an ongoing lawsuit against the company, including “playbooks” that advised sales personnel how to market high-priced courses on getting rich through real estate.

The Friday ruling, in which Judge Gonzalo Curiel cited heightened public interest in presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, was issued in response to a request by The Washington Post. The ruling was a setback for Trump, whose attorneys argued that the documents contained trade secrets.

Curiel’s order came the same day that Trump railed against the judge at a boisterous San Diego rally for his handling of the case, in which students have alleged they were misled and defrauded. The trial is set for November.

Trump, who previously questioned whether Curiel’s Hispanic heritage made him biased due to Trump’s support for building a wall on the Mexican border, said Friday that Curiel “happens to be, we believe, Mexican.” Trump called the judge a “hater of Donald Trump” who had “railroaded” him in the case.

“I think Judge Curiel should be ashamed of himself. I think it’s a disgrace that he is doing this, “ Trump said.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 09:59:08

“The basic premise of democracy is, ‘there are more of us than there are of you, so do as we say or we’ll kill you.’”

The same description works well for many religions.

 
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-29 10:26:19

Trump is your next US President. Ignoring that reality changes nothing.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 10:38:59

Trump or Hillary is your next US President. Whether or how I choose to vote changes nothing.

 
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-29 10:57:01

You don’t understand this fundamental point: Trump cannot be defeated irrespective of our opinions.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-29 11:20:21

You have to admit no one can say that for sure. I was reading this:

‘Overall, comparing the two most recent ABC/Post polls on the likely matchup between Trump and Clinton, Trump moved from a 9-point deficit in March to a 2-point advantage in May. Similarly, he closed his gap with Clinton by 8 points in the most recent NBC/Journal poll.’

‘In the ABC/Post poll, among Republicans, Clinton does 6 points worse in the new poll than the last poll and Trump does 10 points better. This yields a net 16-point improvement among Republicans for Trump on the difference between the two candidates. That improvement for Trump’s margin over Clinton is 22 percentage points among independents. (In the March ABC/Post poll, Clinton led Trump by 9 points and in the most recent study, she trails him by 13.)’

‘As the table shows, yes, he gains from Republicans. But, of Trump’s gain from last month in the horse race, the largest comes from independents. To be sure, Clinton will get back a few Democrats, but she already has high loyalty (86 percent support) among members of her party and is not likely to increase an already large Democratic advantage (+7) in party ID among the electorate. At some point, she is going to have to win a greater share of independents.’

I read somewhere that Sanders has a much better polling chance of beating Trump right now. A lot can happen between now and November.

 
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-29 11:46:11

Agreed that in the case of trump /Sanders or a three way race, anything is game. I look through the public lens of anyone but Hillary. It’s real, powerful and it’s what drives this election imho

I’ll eat my words here if Clintons are elected again.

 
 
Comment by Combotechie
2016-05-28 06:59:19
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-05-29 08:04:43

And here is the youtube clip of Adams on Bill Maher’s show. I like where he talks about how Trump got people to debate whether Hillary should be called Crooked Hillary or Heartless Hillary.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pX1SkJMCrI

When you realize that almost everything he says/does is deliberate, you get a kick out of the media’s many bogus pronouncements about the guy. Most recently, he called out the judge presiding over the Trump University class action, at the San Diego rally. The judge stupidly took the bait and immediately retaliated by ordering the release of all documents related to the case.

Most would say, oh, no Don, you shouldn’t have done that. My guess is he did it on purpose to illustrate something: perhaps how biased the judge is, that he can’t be impartial thereby setting up for removal from the case.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 09:53:20

“When you realize that almost everything he says/does is deliberate, you get a kick out of the media’s many bogus pronouncements about the guy. Most recently, he called out the judge presiding over the Trump University class action, at the San Diego rally. The judge stupidly took the bait and immediately retaliated by ordering the release of all documents related to the case.”

You mixed up the order of events. Trump bashed the judge at the San Diego rally both for his Mexican heritage and for the ruling. So apparently the judge’s ruling, made across the country on the same day, was not in response to a racial slur Trump made at his rally.

It’s disturbing that some people find amusement in such deliberate attempts to undermine our Constitutional Justice system. I’m personally looking forward to hearing more about whether Trump’s real estate sales program met the necessary legal qualifications to call it a University.

 
Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-05-29 11:43:47

It’s my understanding that the judge issued a number of rulings in the matter over time, including denial of a motion to dismiss, prior to Trump calling him out, and then ordered the release of all documents after he was called out, the very same day.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/judge-orders-release-of-internal-trump-university-documents/2016/05/28/2e960e5e-24f9-11e6-8690-f14ca9de2972_story.html

The article doesn’t specify what time of day the order came down with respect to the rally. However, it wasn’t until after the rally that the media seems to have picked up the story. It certainly didn’t pop up on my google news aggravator until hours after the rally.

So you really don’t know. Trump called the guy a Mexican. If you consider that a slur, it says more about out you than it does about Trump.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-05-29 12:50:55

It’s not technically a slur. It’s an attempt to appeal to the bigoted views of some people.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 16:29:52

“Trump called the guy a Mexican.”

Sounds innocent enough taken out of context.

But in the middle of an ad hominem attack on the judge over the release of information about Trump University, it seems like the intent was to insinuate a connection between the judge’s ethnicity and the decision to release the documents.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 21:46:45

“…google news aggravator…”

Where can I get one of those?

 
 
 
 
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-28 04:29:53

Are you sure?

Fairfax County, VA Homes for Sale & Real Estate-6,224 Homes

http://realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Fairfax-County_VA

Fairfax County, VA Homes for Sale, Price Reduced-2,153 Homes

http://realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Fairfax-County_VA/shw-pr/sby-7

34% of all Fairfax VA sellers reduced their price at least once.

Comment by taxpayers
2016-05-29 06:53:56

WHere and when has that stat gone below
25%

Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-29 07:50:46

Fairfax Co, 2009-2015.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 05:06:12

The banking crisis in southern Europe, papered over with trillions in bailouts and stimulus, may be getting ready to rear its ugly head again. Can you say “contagion” boys and girls? I knew you could….

http://www.businessinsider.com/hsbc-analysis-portuguese-economy-and-banking-sector-2016-5

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 05:09:06

What happens to the petrodollar if Yellen keeps punting on hiking interest rates?

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/05/27/dollar-exerts-stress-saudi-banks-riyal-currency-peg/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 05:11:28

When will Yellen join her fellow Keynesian fraudsters in inflicting NIRP, and what will be the long-term consequences?

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/05/26/negative-interest-rate-policies-nirp-euro-japan-depress-u-s-treasury-yields/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 05:14:42

“When has the Fed ever gotten it right about the economy? Did it see the crash coming in 2000? Did it see the housing bubble? Did it see the Wall-Street meltdown in 2008, or the bubble it’s creating now,” asked David Stockman, former budget director under President Ronald Reagan. “The answer is no…it has no clear view of the future.”

Comment by rms
2016-05-28 07:15:17

“The answer is no…it has no clear view of the future.”

With a printing press and the taxpayers as a fallback Mr. Magoo (Greenspan?) quietly destroyed the American middle-class. RIP

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 07:47:51

I have been as critical of Greenspan as anyone. But recall that he put out a paper on mortgage equity withdrawal and immediately did a 180.

Warning PDF:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2007/200720/200720pap.pdf

I remember a quote from a reporter or someone, “Greenspan used to say a housing bubble was impossible, now he won’t shut up about it.”

Remember how he raised alarms, started raising rates? He was largely responsible for the bubble. He popped the bubble. Contrast his actions to Bernanke and Yellen.

Example

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 05:18:31

I’m glad I grew up in a time and place where there were no curfews on kids under 18. This nanny-state BS is getting ridiculous.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/28/curfew-laws-san-diego

Comment by taxpayers
2016-05-29 06:55:17

Your bathroom buddy can be multi gendered

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 06:17:25

‘The Neocon-Liberal Hawk Convergence is Worse Than I Thought’

‘As noted above, I’ll leave the rest to others more knowledgeable about grand strategy, but this part about Iran and the Gulf strikes me as almost bizarre and, in any event, very dangerous. That some of those responsible for this report could become top policy-makers in a Clinton administration is pretty scary.’

‘Meanwhile, to the extent that this report represents its institutional views, CNAS deserves a new name: Center for an Outdated American Security.’

‘Photo: Robert Kagan, Robert Zoelick, Kurt Campbell, Michele Flournoy, and Jamie Rubin’

I’d bet the MSM won’t have one peep on this.

Comment by MacBeth
2016-05-28 06:41:25

NeoCons = Progressives

An overtly-stated equivalency now four years old, at least on the HBB.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-05-28 15:32:02

You got that right. Most people don’t see how that can be. Yet military Hawks such as Obama (the president who’s presided during the longest number of years of U.S. at war) and Hillary Clinton do not fit the narrative most people are familiar with.

George W Bush ushered in the “progressive” prescription medical benefit” and did not fit the narrative of conservatism. Many hawkish conservative types try to appeal to the masses for war to liberate foreigners.

The only conclusion is neoconservatism = progressivism.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by junior_bastiat
2016-05-28 16:07:05

If you take a step back you can see that there are a lot of the same insiders behind the scenes controlling the front puppet - clinton, bush, obama, clinton. And all the while the parties not just adopt but implement the other parties platform and you start to think the 2 party system is controlled opposition.

 
 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2016-05-28 07:46:03

Securing the Realm. Yes, Realm.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 08:02:11

Read some of the details in this link. This is the real world of foreign policy as it exists today. The world of the CFR, neocon/neoliberal think tanks with patriotic names. If you listen to the radio or TV, it’s all left versus right. That’s a fiction to keep us at each other throats while these people run an empire.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by CalifoH20
2016-05-28 14:45:04

Amen!

 
Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-05-29 08:48:22

“That’s a fiction to keep us at each other throats while these people run an empire.”

Yes, I was listening to one of the local Sunday talk shows this morning and much of the show was devoted to the transgender toilet issue. Seriously. While Rome burns, this is what people get all wrapped up in. Another social issue to distract the masses while their pockets are picked.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-28 05:26:51

Lesson of the week;

There Is A Crater Under Every Bubble

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 05:32:09

Behold our future once the collectivist comrades of the DNC and their permanent Democrat supermajority establish the tryanny of the takers.

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/05/27/behold-our-future/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 05:34:16

Once the Comrades of Proven Worth at the DNC have their permanent Democrat supermajority, we shall have our own socialist kleptocrat dystopia. Forward!

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/28/world/americas/venezuela-economic-government-collapse.html?_r=0

 
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-28 05:35:34

crushing.housing.losses.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 05:37:22

‘Panama Papers bubble chart shows politicians are most mentioned in document leak database’

‘It appears to show that politicians are mentioned most often, followed by lawyers, business people, entrepreneurs, and those working in association football’

The most by a long shot.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 05:40:41

‘Before the Panama papers were published, African governments were already aware of the damage inflicted by financial practices that have robbed countries of billions of dollars a year. Over the last 50 years, Africa is estimated to have lost in excess of one trillion dollars in illicit financial flows. This sum is roughly equivalent to all of the official development assistance received by Africa during the same period. The Panama Papers identified around 30 members of Africa’s political and business elite as having done business with the Panamanians.’

‘The latest fallout from leaks of the Panama Papers is the resignation of the chairman of the state-owned Austrian bank. British Prime Minister David Cameron admitted he had failed to answer fully questions about his inheritance from his father who had an offshore investment company, and he released his tax returns for the past six years. The Panama Papers showed that his father was a director of an offshore trust that paid no British taxes.’

‘Here in Asia, the Panama Papers that were released by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalism exposed the key role played by Hong Kong and Singapore in funneling wealth into tax havens. Mossack Fonseca’s Hong Kong office set up thousands of shell companies, including some linked to China’s top political officials.’

‘In Russia, President Vladimir Putin admitted the Panama Papers report was accurate about the revelation that one of his associates secretly moved as much as two billion dollars through banks and shadow companies. Of the report, he said, “I get the impression it was put together, not by journalists, but most likely by lawyers.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 05:49:25

‘The U.S. Treasury Department’s efforts to determine the true identities of secret all-cash buyers of seven-figure luxury condos is rife with loopholes, experts said at a roundtable panel. But the Treasury’s move might just be the beginning of a series of efforts to crack down on secret purchases.’

‘The mid-April release of the Panama Papers has placed an even bigger spotlight on anonymous all-cash condo buyers, real estate and law enforcement experts said on the Holland & Knight South Florida Real Estate Roundtable event.’

However, panelist Sergio Osorio, a vice president for Old Republic National Title Insurance Company who oversees the company’s mid-Florida operations, said he’s skeptical the targeting order is effective. “It really hasn’t done anything to hurt our business,” Osorio said. “The reason is there are a lot of ways to get around [the targeting order].”

‘For starters, deals involving wire transfers are exempt from the targeting order, which represent a significant number of all-cash transactions in Miami-Dade, Osorio said. He also noted all-cash buyers who want to remain anonymous can simply avoid purchasing real estate in Miami-Dade or wait until the disclosure period expires in less than four months.’

“If you really want to buy in Florida, you can buy in Broward and you can buy in Palm Beach” without being identified, Osorio said. “And it’s only set up for six months. Just wait until August and you can buy then.”

‘John Tobon, another panelist and deputy special agent in charge for the South Florida office of Homeland Security Investigations, explained that wire transfers are not considered cash transactions under the Bank Secrecy Act. However, Congress is considering legislation to change the law, he said.’

“The proposed legislation would expand the Bank Secrecy Act to cover all transactions,” Tobon said. “We realize the world is moving in a more electronic fashion.” The Homeland Security official also told roundtable attendees that it was more than likely that FinCEN would issue another targeting order at the end of August that would target other parts of Florida.’

‘In addition, Tobon said, the Treasury Department is pushing for attorneys and real estate professionals to be subject to the same anti-money laundering rules and regulations as financial institutions. “When the anti-money laundering law was enacted, a lot of people got exemptions,” Tobon said. “It’s not just law enforcement stating we have a problem. There is pressure mounting from international organizations.”

‘Andres Fernandez, a Holland & Knight partner who moderated the panel, said he believes anti-money laundering reporting requirements will be extended to persons involved in real estate closings, whether it’s an attorney, a broker, or title insurance agent.’

“If you fall into that category in the next three to five years, you will need to have anti-money laundering policies and procedures,” Fernandez said. “This targeting order is just the beginning.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 06:06:49

‘Sergio Osorio, a vice president for Old Republic National Title Insurance Company who oversees the company’s mid-Florida operations, said he’s skeptical the targeting order is effective. “It really hasn’t done anything to hurt our business,” Osorio said. “The reason is there are a lot of ways to get around [the targeting order].”

“If you really want to buy in Florida, you can buy in Broward and you can buy in Palm Beach” without being identified, Osorio said. “And it’s only set up for six months. Just wait until August and you can buy then.”

Serg, (can I call you Serg?) I would think a title company might be inclined to uphold the legality of real estate transactions, maybe even not get on a panel and brag about how you are circumventing the law.

‘Miami’s crop of new condo towers, built with big deposits from Latin American buyers and lots of marketing glitz, are opening with many owners heading for the exits. A third of the units in some newly built high-rises are back on the market…At the current sales pace, it would take 29 months to sell the 3,397 condominiums available in the downtown area’

Serg, you might have hit on something here:

‘If you really want to buy in Florida’

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-28 06:23:08

If politicians are most often mentioned, shouldn’t an independent prosecutor be appointed to conduct the investigation? It seems like Treasury Department efforts could be hampered by political conflicts of interest.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 06:28:19

It’s theater:

‘deals involving wire transfers are exempt from the targeting order, which represent a significant number of all-cash transactions in Miami-Dade’

If you exempt something, there was a decision made. Coincidence?

Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-28 07:38:15

Unprecedented levels crime and fraud in housing sales. Exceeded over and over again, year after year for nearly two decades now.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 05:41:15
Comment by redmondjp
2016-05-28 19:21:29

No. There is too much short-term profit to be gained by not learning.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 05:45:51

’such lofty values have driven National Retail cap rates down to the subbasement of history, at just 6.5%…apartment vacancies in the downtown Miami area rose to 11.8 percent in the first quarter, double the rate two years earlier’

Somebody out there who thinks they are about to retire is going to get a big surprise.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 07:04:51

‘Muricans profess to be worried about our moral decline…yet millions of them will readily vote for a known lawbreaker and influence peddler. Talk about a broken moral compass.

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/05/27/americans-remain-pessimistic-about-state-of-moral-values/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by rms
2016-05-28 17:22:24

“God forbid.”

Second that!

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-05-28 07:12:44

CraneSpotters.com. :)

Miami’s Condo Frenzy Ends With Inventory Piling Up in New Towers

Bloomberg
May 27, 2016 — 5:00 AM EDT

Why Miami’s Condo Frenzy Is Coming to an End

Investors ‘no longer buying,’ selling instead, consultant says
One owner at Related Group tower asking 7% less than he paid

Miami’s crop of new condo towers, built with big deposits from Latin American buyers and lots of marketing glitz, are opening with many owners heading for the exits.

A third of the units in some newly built high-rises are back on the market, though most are listed for more than their owners paid in the pre-construction phase. At the current sales pace, it would take 29 months to sell the 3,397 condominiums available in the downtown area, according to South Florida development tracker CraneSpotters.com.

With the U.S. dollar strong, South American investors who piled into the downtown Miami market after the real estate crash are now trying to unload their recently built condos, adding inventory to an area where 8,000 units are under construction and nine towers were completed since the end of 2013. Some are offering homes at a loss as demand cools. Condo purchases from January through April slid 25 percent from a year earlier, while the average price fell 6 percent on a per-square-foot basis, CraneSpotters data show.

“The problem is that investors are no longer buying, and now they’re going to be looking to sell,” said Jack McCabe, a housing consultant based in Deerfield Beach, Florida. “And what buyers are going to replace those other than vulture buyers looking for deals?”

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-05-28 07:40:32

They should have arrested the clerk for offering “fast cash” loans with interest rates beginning at 94 percent.

Police: Man told loan office worker he needed cash ‘to purchase meth’

By Ben Hooper Contact the Author | May 27, 2016 at 1:04 PM

SPARTANBURG, S.C., May 27 (UPI) — A man busted on drug charges in South Carolina allegedly told a loan office worker that he needed some money “to purchase meth.”

A report from the Spartanburg Public Safety Department states Grady Carson, 58, attempted to secure a loan against his car Wednesday at a Carolina Title Loans office, which offers “fast cash” loans at interest rates beginning at 94 percent.

The arrest report said an office clerk told police Carson appeared to be under the influence of narcotics and said he was seeking the loan because he “needed the money to purchase meth.”

Police arrived and searched Carson, who was found to be in possession of a glass container with an “off white rock-like substance inside.”

“Carson stated it was cocaine, but he was not going to smoke it because he did meth.”

http://www.upi.com/…/9111464366115/ - 67k -

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2016-05-28 08:37:25

Here’s How Much Money You Need To Afford Rent In Every State:

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_574880cae4b0dacf7ad4c828

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-05-28 15:24:41

Meanwhile the cost to rent in number of Bitcoin is falling incredibly. Bitcoin up 12% the last 24 hours.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-05-28 19:47:04

Thanks for that article.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-05-29 08:35:40

The latest Bitcoin infographics has been published today.

http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/05/29/newsbtc-infographics-q1-2016/

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-28 08:43:23

rampant.housing.fraud.

 
Comment by alphonso bedoya
2016-05-28 14:35:48

Miami :

What’s amazing is NOT what is for sale , but, rather what is STILL slated to be built.

Bring it on.

Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-28 15:22:26

Everyone is digging on the falling prices in Miami. It’s a very positive development.

 
 
Comment by Andre The Giant
 
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-28 15:33:39

This woman is a fraud and a phony.

“‘Fauxchahontas’ Elizabeth Warren Bought Foreclosed Homes To Sell For A Quick Profit”

http://www.weaselzippers.us/273550-fauxchahontas-elizabeth-warren-bought-foreclosed-homes-to-sell-for-a-quick-profit/

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 17:04:55

How dare you besmirch the first “woman of color” to graduate from Harvard.

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-05-28 17:51:05

“‘Fauxchahontas’ Elizabeth Warren Bought Foreclosed Homes To Sell For A Quick Profit”

Maybe she is an ancestor of Chief Flipping Bull.

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-05-28 16:48:49

Drove past the beach today and unfortunately just like the last 33 years there is still no sea level rise.

At this rate of sea level rise the oceans are going to become too crowded, the dolphins are going to grow legs, walk up on shore and start asking why there are men using the ladies rooms.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 17:11:43

Venezuelans voted for socialism; now they’ve got empty supermarket shelves. Learn something, Democrats.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtMODsO2NZ4

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 17:41:07

B..b..but I thought “gun control” was the answer to “gun violence.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/29/us/chicago-gun-violence.html?_r=0

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 17:55:53

B…b…but I thought the Eurozone crisis was fixed. Goldman’s man Draghi said he’d do “Whatever it takes.”

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/05/28/spain-banking-crisis-is-back-banco-popular-capital-npl/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 18:01:59

No wonder the Olipopoly is trying to pass new laws to make it impossible to unplug from the system and live off the grid. An awake, aware, not-dependent populace is their worst nightmare.

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-live-off-the-grid-debt-free-dan-timmerman-profile-2016-3

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-05-29 10:16:45

That was an interesting video. While I generally approve of off the grid live, although I’ve not adopted it myself as yet, a couple of thoughts struck me while watching the vid:

1) He’s a bicycle racing hipster who probably is also a good-thinker socially. However, he would probably be appalled to discover that his “lifestyle” bears a remarkable resemblance to that of many of the so-called white “trailer trash” living in the hollers of Appalachia, with crap strewn all over the porch and grounds, including appliances and vehicles, and crap strewn all over the inside as well.

Similar lifestyles can also be seen in parts of Arizona, North Florida, Maine and Vermont, usually minus the solar panels. But it’s cool for him because he’s a hipster who is socially conscious and has all his teeth, and wears some pretty fancy streamlined sporting duds instead of a sweat stained undershirt.

2) The hippies of the 60s and 70s also had similar lifestyles, adapted to the times, of course.

Here’s the urban version, the container home in Oakland, CA:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfqunEuw61k

Everybody loves that composting stuff.

Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-29 11:05:10

That’s some hard living right there. Unsustainable.

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-05-29 13:51:08

I prefer to flush, but that’s just me. I guess outhouses are the wave of the future.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-29 14:30:46

Giving turds the royal flush and the swirly-twirl is our patriotic duty.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 18:03:58

Oligopoly-owned globalist neoliberal politicians don’t give a damn about open borders and unrestricted migration.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/28/david-cameron-and-george-osborne-too-rich-to-care-about-migratio/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 18:29:20
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-28 18:40:14

trump

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-28 18:50:28

‘Fact: “Mexico” does not sell drugs in the United States. The cartels do. Mexico cannot control the cartels’

Yeah, and Guzman tunneled out of a prison because no one noticed an industrial size operation going on under their feet.

‘He is mad about the use of welfare by illegals. Trump quote: “U.S. taxpayers have been asked to pick up hundreds of billions in healthcare costs, housing costs, education costs, welfare costs, etc.” How much sense does this make? America offers these things and then complains when they are accepted. If you don’t want illegal aliens on welfare, don’t give them welfare.’

We have a safety net. We can’t afford a safety net and open borders.

‘We have Trump eagerly planning ways to punish Mexico.’

By having them support and employ their own people? This is like shooting fish in a barrel.

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-05-29 09:42:51

“We have a safety net. We can’t afford a safety net and open borders.”

So much mal-incentivization in this issue. No other country automatically extends citizenship to the children of non-citizens, provided they are born on US soil.

And while I think a bit of safety net is a good thing for the citizens of the country, it should not extend to the children of non-citizens. Nor should the safety net encourage people to have children if they couldn’t support them otherwise. It discourages family planning and encourages a state-will-provide attitude. Paying someone per child is a bad idea, which also encourages looking at children as a source of income, incentivizing over-population. Sets a bad example for the children, too.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 07:26:26

“America’s immigration mess is entirely self-inflicted. In 1965 the United States changed its laws to encourage immigration. Mexico didn’t change America’s laws. Ever since, American businessmen have knowingly, eagerly hired illegal immigrants in large numbers and exerted influence to maintain the influx.”

Talk about changing U.S. immigration law to better facilitate legal immigration and to prevent illegal immigration = boring.

Talk about building a wall and making Mexico pay for it = exciting!

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 17:08:26

“Trump is either dishonest, naive, or thinks like a ten-year-old.”

He deserves the benefit of the doubt: He’s plenty start, though dishonest.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-28 18:30:57

Even the MSM can’t overlook the central contribution of the Clintons to the last housing bubble bust.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/28/are-the-clintons-the-real-housing-crash-villains.html

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
 
Comment by Andre The Giant
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 17:29:19

Crooked Hillary or Deceitful Donald: How do you plan to vote?

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-29 17:37:18

I probably won’t vote. Trump will win Arizona.

I read there’s something like 3,000 people killed in fighting in Iraq every month. Have been for a while. 300,000 dead and counting in Syria. Libya is overrun with jihadists, lots dead there too. I suspect this will come up in the debates.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 21:42:11

Hillary will win in California. And no matter how I vote, the chances that I will have an effect on the outcome are below one in a million.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Andre The Giant
2016-05-29 18:11:51

crater

 
 
 
Comment by Combotechie
2016-05-29 04:46:15

The Huffington Post is one of those publications who will trash anyone who dares to challenge the findings of climate scientists by labeling them as “denialists” and so what do we have here, from the same Huffington Post? Why it is an article discussing (and explaining away) why scientists and reporters sometimes get the science wrong, way wrong.

Here (link to follow) …

“Just a few weeks ago, in one of his provocative and hilarious critiques of American culture, John Oliver, host of Last Week Tonight, turned his discerning eye to scientific research. If you haven’t seen it yet, it’s worth the watch.

“The topic hit home with me because my colleagues and I recently published a paper looking at some of the very criticisms Oliver so succinctly explains. You can find it here. We looked specifically at researchers who study management, but the results are applicable in a general way to all disciplines.

“One Oliver quote struck me as especially poignant: “Science is by its nature imperfect, but it is hugely important,” he said. “And it deserves better than to be twisted out of proportion and turned into morning show gossip.”

“Oliver touched on a few pieces of the puzzle, but at least some of the burden lies with two groups: researchers who employ questionable research methods and journalists eager to report on juicy results. As Oliver points out, there are countless examples of the media sensationalizing and over-simplifying complex and nuanced scientific findings. But the news media aren’t the only perpetrators guilty of misrepresenting science; the scientists themselves are also to blame for mischaracterizing the nature of our procedures and findings. Fortunately however, transparency and open dialogue are bedrock principles of science and many disciplines within the scientific community are beginning to foster and maintain open dialogue about how to make the process even more transparent and trustworthy.

“At the heart of the problem is an entrenched set of practices adopted by researchers that push the boundaries of accepted scientific practice. We call them questionable research practices, and the appropriateness of these practices can range from questionable to fraudulent, depending on a number of circumstances.

“First, though, it’s helpful to understand what we talk about when we say “questionable research practices.” In our study, we found evidence of

“•Selectively reporting hypotheses
•Excluding data that do not support the hypothesis
•Hypothesizing after results are known
•Selectively including control variables
•Rounding off probability values

“Each of these practices is problematic, and Oliver himself hits on one of the key questionable research practices: p-hacking. He describes it as collecting a lot of variables, then playing with data until something is found that is statistically significant. This practice is becoming increasingly common as it becomes easier to access and analyze large data sets. Another problem is the systematic exclusion of data. In our study we found more than a third of scientists surveyed admitted to a post-hoc exclusion of data for the express purpose of supporting hypotheses with statistical significance. That means their original hypothesis was not supported by the collected data, so they excluded some of that data from the set in order to support their hypothesis. This is problematic at best, particularly if these procedures aren’t reported.

“So why do researchers engage in these practices?

“To be fair, the root causes are as varied as the methods themselves. But one reason stands head and shoulders above the rest: the intense, often overwhelming pressure to publish at all costs.

“Once at a university, new professors on tenure-track lines generally have five years before they are put up for promotion. And depending on the university, requirements for tenure can be pretty tough to reach, but the vast majority of schools require multiple peer-reviewed publications in top academic journals. That process — which can often take several years from the start of the research to publication — has to be balanced with lesson planning, grading, classroom and lab teaching and student mentoring.

“That is not complaining — it’s only to say that the stakes are high. And as the pressure mounts, if a scientist finds that data collected over a year and a half isn’t significant, there’s really no time to push the reset button. But, with an adjustment here and a tweak there, an academic paper is soon in the offing.

“Everyone is complicit — from the administrators who demand more and more publications to the journal editorial staffs who only want to publish large-scale, ground-breaking studies. In all honesty, no one should be surprised to find that the use of questionable research methods is pervasive — and now thanks to Oliver’s 20-minute rant, no one is.

“So what to do about it? It’s easy to diagnose the problem and ferret out its root causes. But the solution is much more complicated.

“First, it’s naïve to hope universities will relax their publishing requirements or teaching loads. Universities need cash and research and publication brings in grant dollars, name recognition, and large donations. Teaching brings in tuition dollars. And in the end, this is, the job we signed up to do. But some of the best journals could begin to acknowledge the importance of replication studies as well as those rigorous studies that find no significant results. After all, if we fully expect to find an effect and don’t, isn’t that interesting and “significant”? Encouraging research partnerships might also relieve some of workload issues as well as the interdepartmental competition that often feeds the beast.

“Furthermore, it’s time we got transparent. My colleagues and I are advocates of opening up the scientific process — pre-registering hypotheses, research questions, study design and actual surveys, and sharing data on open platforms. That doesn’t preclude deviation from the original course of inquiry, but it documents changes so results are verifiable and replicable.

“Shining a light on research is the only way the results will stand up to rigorous challenge. And it would give John Oliver one less thing to critique.”

Comment by Combotechie
2016-05-29 04:53:01

Link …

“How And Why Scientists Fudge results And What We Can Do About It”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/charles-white/how-and-why-scientists-fu_b_10106104.html

Comment by Combotechie
2016-05-29 04:56:37

Here’s a link to the John Oliver video that was referenced in the article …

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Rnq1NpHdmw

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 05:14:41

Behold our future once the collectivist comrades of the DNC have their permanent Democrat supermajority and the takers overwhelm the makers.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-finds-venezuela-shortages-exceed-80-percent-230140079.html

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 05:22:10

The white blue-collar workers who have been thrown under the bus by the corporate statists are looking to Trump to save them - but will he turn out to be a snake oil salesman like a certain Soros-backed community organizer pitching “hope and change”?

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2016/05/28/buchanan-working-class-white-americans-look-to-donald-trump-the-way-a-lot-of-african-americans-looked-to-barack-obama/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 05:24:24

In spite of what our elites and their corporate media fluffers are telling you, the global economy is in real trouble.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-28/dont-listen-ruling-elite-world-economy-real-trouble

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 05:27:19

The proles in flyover USA continue to lose ground to the bicoastal elites who have rigged the game in their favor, thanks to the proles’ bovine stupidity in electing Republicrat duopoly politicians captured by the .1%. (How’s that hope ‘n change working out for ya, ‘Murica?)

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/05/29/losing-ground-in-flyover-america-part-3/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 05:34:02

Iceland, the sole country in the West to hold its banksters and captured politicians accountable for their fraud and swindles that caused the 2008 financial crash, is now on the road to recovery.

http://www.businessinsider.com/icelands-economy-miracle-2016-5

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 05:37:34

So, Italy’s banks are still broken? But didn’t Draghi and the MSM assure us that a crisis had been averted, and that the Eurozone had been fixed by the trillions in printing press funny money and NIRP Draghi had thrown at the problem?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/28/italys-broken-banks-show-the-dangers-behind-the-euro/

 
Comment by Palm Beach County
2016-05-29 05:38:39

No ‘crash’ in the market or real estate coming soon…so how long do we have to wait this time…Barrons says it may be a long time…

Barron’s Buzz: Watching for a Market Crash

Barron’s senior editor Jack Hough and WSJ’s Shelby Holliday preview the newest issue of Barron’s, including a cover story on whether the market is at risk for a crash soon.
This video originally appeared on Barrons.com
Posted May 27, 2016

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 05:41:21

France and Italy are too big to be bailed out. The banksters and their captured elites might be able to hold their three-ring sh*t show together until after the elections, but then the long-deferred financial reckoning day is going to expose their frauds and swindles, again. And the sheeple may not bend over for them again like they did with their votes for pro-bailout status quo politicians back in 2008 and 2012.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/france-and-italy-next-economic-crash-europe-a7054801.html

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 05:44:51

History will repeat itself once the grifters of the DNC have their permanent Democrat supermajority and have free rein to steal with impunity as they “redistribute the wealth.” Forward!

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/countingthecost/2016/05/venezuela-looming-collapse-160528081007472.html

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 05:46:33

The Oligopoly and its media border collies think the sheeple are stupid, and they’re right.

http://townhall.com/columnists/derekhunter/2016/05/29/they-think-were-stupidand-maybe-theyre-right-n2170211

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 05:49:52

California free-sh*tters are waxing rapturous over Bernie. I’d love to think it was because they are rejecting the corruption and crony capitalism of Hillary Clinton, but these are, after all, Democrats.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/29/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-california-democratic-primary

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-05-29 13:49:07

They polluted the Verizon Ampitheater in Irvine with their (and Sanders’) presence week ago at a rally. California is. Beautiful state but it takes strength to tolerate the “progressives.”

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 05:53:43

Salon, once a progressive standard-bearer, has stagnated into irrelevance as it becomes yet another house media organ for the corrupt and degenerate Democrat establishment. Oddly, even the sheeple don’t seem to want an endless diet of corporate propaganda and DNC talking points.

http://www.politico.com/media/story/2016/05/the-fall-of-saloncom-004551?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethits

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 06:06:33

Given the Democrat voting base is comprised of feckless, amoral, igorant takers voting themselves benefits that producers will have to pay for, who would think that Clinton, the consumate crony capitalist, status quo insider, and tool of Wall Street, would have such a hard time rallying them against Donald Trump?

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/05/28/nyt-clinton-campaign-implodes-trump/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 06:10:14

Young people in oligarch-looted economys in the Eurozone are screwed beyond measure.

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/05/17/young-people-marginalized-eu-eurobarometer-greece-portugal-spain-cyprus/

Comment by rms
2016-05-29 07:07:25

Taking it for a bologna sandwich. Hehe.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 06:13:48

Establishment (Oligopoly-controlled) political parties committing election fraud to keep “far right” challengers out of power? Inconceivable!

https://www.yahoo.com/news/austrian-far-says-countless-signs-election-fraud-104533911.html?nhp=1

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 06:15:43

The next housing bubble burst will be epic, thanks to the Fed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNmcf4Y3lGM&feature=player_embedded

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 06:19:06

Four decades of stagnant earnings and losing ground for the 99%, while the 1% thrive from rigging the rules of the game thanks to their capture of the Fed, regulators, and the Republicrat duopoly.

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=45072

 
Comment by measton
2016-05-29 06:45:33

Iceland nationalized banks allowed currency to depreciate

http://www.businessinsider.com/icelands-economy-miracle-2016-5

They didn’t bail out banks and bank owners and what do you know they recovered

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 07:32:14

Our debt-based monetary system. Mind-boggling.

https://mises.org/library/our-money-based-debt

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 07:44:25

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-28/dont-listen-ruling-elite-world-economy-real-trouble?page=4

One major complaint that people have is that the system is rigged – that is, the rising income concentration is not due to free market competition, but a rigged system that favours the politically powerful. This is largely true. The new billionaires over the past two decades have come mostly from finance and property. Few made it the way Steve Jobs or Bill Gates did, creating something that makes people more productive.

The most important factor in the rigged system is monetary policy being used to pump up financial markets in the name of stimulating growth for people’s benefit. This is essentially the trickle-down wealth effect, that is, making some people in the financial food chain rich while the spillover gives people a few crumbs. Yet, instead of crumbs, the wealth effect has pumped up property prices in Manhattan, London and Hong Kong, as well as the price of modern art. Essentially, the wealth effect has stayed within the small circle of the wealthy. And these people show up at Davos to congratulate policymakers on their “successes”.

Wasting resources is an equally important factor in making the global economy weak and prone to crisis. After the 2008 financial crisis, the US government and Federal Reserve spent trillions of dollars to bail out the people who created the crisis. Instead of facing bankruptcy and jail, these people have become richer than ever. Predictably, they have used their resources to rig the system further.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-29 08:03:09

‘After the 2008 financial crisis, the US government and Federal Reserve spent trillions of dollars to bail out the people who created the crisis. Instead of facing bankruptcy and jail, these people have become richer than ever.’

Clearly this is Kremlin propaganda.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 08:46:43

And 95% of the electorate, instead of punishing the perperators by throwing out their political water-carriers, bent over for eight more years of Oligopoly rapaciousness by voting for hope ‘n change or the even worse GOP “alternatives.”

 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-05-29 12:40:44

Few made it the way Steve Jobs or Bill Gates did, creating something that makes people more productive.

They became billionaires working in an industry built on corporate welfare. Tyler would probably call it crony capitalism if he didn’t like them.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-05-29 07:54:38

‘Fathom Consulting blame both record low interest rates of 0.5% and the government’s various property schemes that have helped tip the supply and demand scales. That is because lower interest rates mean it is cheaper for people to service debt — so they take on more.’

“We maintain our view that this increase is demand driven, brought about by both exceptionally low real rates of interest and Chancellor Osborne’s Help to Buy scheme,” said Fathom Consulting in the report. “The housing market is likely to remain overvalued at anything other than near-zero interest rates.”

I can’t link to this chart, you’ll have to go there to see it: “Just take a look at this ridiculous chart that shows how skewed the ratio has become”

Comment by Combotechie
2016-05-29 08:19:36

“The housing market is likely to remain overvalued at anything other than near-zero interest rates.”

Ah, but think of the wealth creation. And if the buy/rent ratio remains the same think of the creation of rental income, both real rental income and imputed rental income.

So it’s all good in a bean-counting sort of world but it is a bit less than good in a real-world sort of world.

 
 
 
Comment by Combotechie
2016-05-29 08:34:17

A short video (2:39) …

“We tested an economic theory by trying to buy people’s lottery tickets for much more than they paid.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/regret-avoidance-plays-into-lottery-tickets-2016-5

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 11:59:05

Oligopoly mouthpiece The Chicago Tribute assures the Proles that despite Hillary being a straight-up criminal accomplice of the same gangster oligarchs who are trying to disarm the populace so they can ram through “fundamental transformation,” we need not fear her attempts to nullify the Second Amendment.

FU, Chicago Tribune. We’ve seen what a dystopian hellhole Chiraq has turned into under successive corrupt, incompetent Democrat “leaders” and their Oligopoly-dictated agendas. The Second Amendment was drafted by wise, prescient, insightful patriots who knew the “monied interests” would be a persistent, mortal threat to the Republic and liberty. They had no illusions about corrupt, venal influence-peddlers like Crooked Hillary.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/05/27/chicago-tribune-nra-exaggerating-hillary-clintons-threat-to-gun-rights/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 14:19:16

The poors have no access to affordable housing under our Obama-Fed-Goldman Sachs so-faux “recovery” and QE-fueled speculation binge in the residential housing market.

http://www.businessinsider.com/map-of-wage-needed-to-rent-a-2-bedroom-2016-5

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 14:26:39

Parasite voting blocs installing socialist kleptocracies through majority rule end up killing their host. Learn something, Democrats.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/extends-shortened-workweek-decree-public-sector-220334901.html?ref=gs

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 14:29:49

Comrades of proven worth who undermine national security operations with their haphazard and unauthorized communications pratices need not fear actual consequences for themselves, only for those whose lives they put at risk.

http://nypost.com/2016/05/27/ex-state-aide-recalls-hillarys-sloppy-communications-with-staff/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 14:38:16

The socialist kleptocrats running Venezuela now have to sell off the nation’s gold reserves since no sane creditor will lend money to this deadbeat collectivist basket case. I hope future generations in Venezuela exact justice on their Free Sh*t Army elders who ran their country’s into the ground by voting in a clique of collectivist thieves to preside over the looting of the country’s wealth.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-29/venezuelas-gold-reserves-plunge-lowest-ever-maduro-sells-gold-repay-debt

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 14:41:47

Forty shootings so far in Chicago over Memorial Day Weekend…how can this be? The Lib-Dems running Chicago have imposed the strictest gun control laws in the nation…wasn’t this supposed to CURB “gun (not thug) violence”?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-29/over-40-shot-violence-erupts-chicago-during-memorial-day-weekend

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 14:45:14

The last time this happened, the housing market collapsed.

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/05/29/last-time-this-happened-housing-collapsed/

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 18:58:37

Gotta love the back-slapping and high fives between the former and current Fed Chairs:

‘How did we get here? Seven years of global QE and wealth effect, instigated by Ben Bernanke.

On Friday, he himself introduced Fed chair Janet Yellen to the audience. She then said that the Fed’s bailouts and money-printing gyrations engineered by her predecessor during the Financial Crisis were “nothing short of magnificent.” “Ben was immensely courageous,” she said. “America owes him an enormous debt of gratitude.”

So maybe “America” doesn’t owe him that sort of gratitude, but the richest people in the world do. Their homes and other assets have shot up in price during Bernanke’s reign when what he called the “wealth effect” had become official Fed policy.’

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 14:59:26

The special snowflakes supporting Sanders are getting a realty check into how corrupt and soulless the Establishment Democrat Party has become.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/05/27/feel-the-hate/

Obama’s time in the White House office has been a big wet kiss to the super-rich and powerful (whose wealth has concentrated yet further under his presidency) combined with a raised middle finger pointed in the direction of the party’s progressives and the nation’s working class majority. As the investigative researcher Eric Zuesse noted last summer, “Under Presidents G.W. Bush and Barack Obama, economic inequality in America has been more extreme, for more years, than under any Presidents in all of the previous U.S. history. But, at least, Bush didn’t pretend to care about it. Obama does. He pretended to a concern for justice which he never really had; he was always merely faking liberalism.”

Comment by phony scandals
2016-05-29 19:56:57

“Hillary’s good friend the blood-soaked mass murderer Madeline Albright telling female voters there was a “special place in Hell” for them if they backed Bernie.”

The Gates of Hell

Satan: Could the female Bernie voters please stay to the left, female Bernie voters please stay to the left.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 15:07:26

Jeffrey Epstein’s Orgy Island, where Oligopoly-captured politicians could have sex with underage girls, was doubtless just a small part of the web of blackmail and degeneracy by which the oligarchs keep their political puppets like Bill Clinton in line.

https://www.intellihub.com/elites-orgy-island-exposed/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 15:09:29

A preview of coming attractions in our Permanent Democrat Supermajority kleptocracy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/28/world/americas/venezuela-economic-government-collapse.html

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-05-29 18:14:03

The neocon puppetmaster speaks: Since the GOP base has rejected the Oligopoly-annointed water carriers and Trump has the votes to be the Republican nominee, there will be an Oligopoly-selected “independent” (right) candidate to thwart the popular will.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/05/29/bill-kristol-will-independent-candidate/

Comment by rms
2016-05-29 19:25:15

“Just a heads up over this holiday weekend: There will be an independent candidate–an impressive one, with a strong team and a real chance.” –Bill Kristol

Independent or owned by jooz?

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-05-29 19:23:35

Lake Park Fl. 2/2 side of a duplex would have sold for $60k in 2000 and about $70k in 2009

This is from Realtor.com today

Date Event Price Price/Sq Ft Source
05/05/2016 Listed $150,000 $131 JTHSMLS
01/04/2006 Sold $200,000 $156

So this little1000 sq ft place has played out like this so far.

2000 $60,000

2006 $200,000

2009 $70,000

2016 listed for $150,000

 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-05-29 22:03:04

Top News
Thu May 19, 2016 | 10:13 PM EDT
Crude tanker storage fleet off Singapore points to stubborn oil glut
By Keith Wallis and Roslan Khasawneh

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Prices for oil futures have jumped by almost a quarter since April, lifted by severe supply disruptions caused by triggers such as Canadian wildfires, acts of sabotage in Nigeria, and civil war in Libya.

Yet flying into Singapore, the oil trading hub for the world’s biggest consumer region, Asia, reveals another picture: that a global glut that pulled down prices by over 70 percent between 2014 and early 2016 is nowhere near over, and that financial traders betting on higher crude oil futures may be in for a surprise from the physical market.

“I’ve been coming to Singapore once a year for the last 15 years, and flying in I have never seen the waters so full of idle tankers,” said a senior European oil trader a day after arriving in the city-state.

As Asia’s main physical oil trading hub, the number of parked tankers sitting off Singapore’s coast or in nearby Malaysian waters is seen by many as a gauge of the industry’s health.

Judging by this, oil markets are still sickly: a fleet of 40 supertankers is currently anchored in the region’s coastal waters for use as floating storage facilities.

The tankers are filled with 47.7 million barrels of oil, mostly crude, up 10 percent from the previous week, according to newly collected freight data in Thomson Reuters Eikon.

That’s enough oil to satisfy five working days of Chinese demand, suggesting recent supply disruptions - which have mostly occurred in the Americas, Africa and Europe - have done little to tighten supply in Asia as Middle East producers keep output near record volumes in a bid to win market share.

“The volumes of oil stored at sea in South East Asia - predominantly Singapore and Malaysia - appear to have increased significantly,” said Erik Broekhuizen, Global Manager of tanker research and consultancy at New York-based shipping brokerage Poten & Partners. “The current volumes are the highest for at least the last five years.”

 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post