June 17, 2016

Time and Time Again, It Ends Badly

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “The U.S. housing market accelerated to its fastest pace on record in May, according to Redfin. ‘After almost a decade of undersupplied housing stock, competition is fierce,’ said Redfin chief economist Nela Richardson. ‘What’s new in 2016 is that we’re seeing the intensity of fast sales and bidding wars even in affordable markets like Grand Rapids and Omaha, where the typical home sold within two weeks last month.’”

“In Michigan, Detroit and Grand Rapids saw the number of homes sold surge by more than 50 percent from last year. ‘We’re seeing an influx of buyers from places like San Francisco, Southern California, Seattle and Washington, D.C. Most new residents are lured by tech jobs and opportunities to work remotely,’ said local Redfin agent Kent Selders. ‘Locals are watching prices rise, and many realize if they don’t buy soon, they’ll miss out while homes are still affordable. The result is incredible demand and rapid sales. Nothing like this has ever happened in Grand Rapids.’”

“According to Douglas Elliman’s May 2016 report, average Manhattan rents are down 1.6 percent, year over year, while inventory, marketing time, and negotiability are all up. Karla Saladino, managing partner with Mirador Real Estate, suggested landlords are more often using incentives less out of strict necessity than a desire to goose their buildings’ values. ‘We are seeing more concessions because the landlords want to hit certain rent rolls, and the secret is out that you can do that with concessions,’ she said.”

“She said, ‘In new developments a lot of times [owners] were promising investors certain [rent] levels, so they will incentivize sort of non-stop.’ But wait, who do they think they’re fooling? Surely an investor can do the math and figure out that 12 months at $5,000 isn’t actually $60,000 a year if you’re giving away a month free, right? ‘That’s not always disclosed,’” Saladino said. ‘I’ve seen marketing contracts that put incentives into the marketing costs, and sometimes investors look at the marketing costs and don’t realize that’s in there.’”

“She cited the example of one project she looked into on behalf of an investor where tenants were allowed to move in months before their lease technically started. ‘It was like, ‘Well, we’ll let you live here under this rider [in your lease], but your lease actually starts on this date.’ So you see that, well, the lease started in March for $4,000 a month, but that person was actually allowed to move in four months prior. That is untraceable unless you look really, really deeply,’ she said. ‘And when you work with a REIT or a national pension fund or somebody like that, they aren’t going to the building making phone calls to the [marketing] person who worked there six months ago or really digging deep into the renewals.’”

“Those realtors who spoke with the New Canaan Advertiser this week said a number of homes currently listed are priced too high for the current market. Buyers, of which about one-third are from New York City or the West Coast according to agents, are looking to buy. The difference is that they aren’t willing to settle. ‘[Buyers] know the amount of inventory. They know know the trends and they think they should be able to get a bargain,’ said John Engel, realtor with Halstead Property. ‘Sellers are saying, ‘Nobody said we are in a recession. Nobody said the bottom fell out of the market. Why should I reduce my house 25% when we’re not in trouble and I’m not desperate.’”

“Las Vegas’ housing bubble reached its most bloated point 10 years ago this month, at least by one gauge: resale prices hit their peak. A total of 28 previously owned single-family homes were purchased for $315,000 in June 2006, according to a VEGAS INC analysis of Clark County property records. Among those, 18 were lost to foreclosure, including one home twice; four homes still are owned by the June 2006 buyers; and 23 homes were sold again, almost always in the $100,000 range. (Those sales do not include foreclosure auctions.)”

“A one-story, 1,725-square-foot house on Valley Regal Way in North Las Vegas was one of the few that sold at the peak of the bubble and didn’t change hands over the next decade — until lenders seized it through foreclosure in April. A neighbor said people come by about once a month to clear the weeds, but the house has been vacant for some time. ‘We’ve only been here for a year and a half, and it’s been empty ever since,’ she said.”

“The Kingdom’s construction boom will slow down in the next five years, according to government estimates, due to a glut of building space in the capital Phnom Penh and falling demand for new properties. ‘There is a current oversupply of properties,’ Kim Heang, president of the Cambodian Valuers and Estate Agents Association pointed out. ‘The rich have bought houses and condominiums as residences and for investment purposes, the middle class, too, have their own places ‒ some with investment properties. So there is a glut now,’ he said. ‘It’s the poor who cannot afford to buy any property that are left out. And no developer seems to be catering to them.’”

“Brisbane Lord Mayor Graham Quirk recently acknowledged in a national newspaper that ‘the booming apartment market is coming to an end.’ Does it all seem too little, too late? You warn the boom is over with 15,000 apartments still in the pipeline? Anyone with any brains knows a glut is coming, with crashing prices the likely result. A longtime housing investor said to me: ‘How in god’s name did this council approve so many apartment ­towers? Their job is to look over the horizon and predict what will be needed. That’s why they are called bloody planners – to plan.’”

“He has a point. Yet, has Brisbane and Queensland ever met a developer it didn’t like? It falls in love with big men with white shoes and too much money, time and time again, no matter how many times it ends badly. He advises: ‘If I owned an apartment and was thinking of selling it, I’d put it on the market right now for a sensible price.’”

“China’s use of administrative measures to control property prices can have painful repercussions for its swelling ranks of homeowners. Just ask Shanghai resident Yi Miaowen. Yi had to cut the price of the apartment he was selling by at least 8 percent after local authorities in March restricted purchases by non-residents, causing two prospective buyers to pull out. ‘I needed the money ready within two months to pay for a larger apartment I just bought,’ said the 42-year-old engineer, who sold his apartment for 5.31 million yuan ($808,502). ‘The buyers spotted my weakness and then asked for lower prices.’”

“Britain is a nation obsessed with bricks and mortar but experts have warned those thinking of investing in buy-to-let are facing headwinds that will only get worse. From next year landlords will see tax relief on their mortgage payments cut each year until 2021 - putting pressure on profits and potentially forcing them to raise rents. Coupled with the pending removal of a ‘wear and tear’ allowance and a 3 per cent stamp duty surcharge slapped on any buy-to-let purchase made after April this year, many landlords’ finances are suddenly looking like they might not stack up.”

“Graphic evidence emerged yesterday that landlords, both current and prospective, are seeing the writing on the wall: figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders revealed a spectacular drop in the number of buy-to-let property purchases in April. Dominik Lipnicki, director of mortgage broker Your Mortgage Decisions, said: ‘If I could give one piece of advice to anyone thinking about becoming a landlord it’s no wishful thinking. Subsidising the mortgage by £2,000 a year if the capital growth is £10,000 can make sense to many but what if that growth stops or worse, tumbles? The mortgage will still need to be paid.’”

“A growing number of economists seem convinced that the US, the European Union and China are all headed for a prolonged period of sluggish growth. A parallel would seem to be 1990s Japan. There, too, the bursting of debt-funded asset price bubbles gave way to multiple rounds of fiscal stimulus, massive monetary easing and rock-bottom interest rates. Rescue efforts stabilized conditions but couldn’t spark a sustainable recovery, leaving the economy mired in low growth, low inflation and high debt.”

“When Japan entered its downturn, however, the country had several advantages that nations today don’t. For many, a Japan-style slump may be the best-case scenario. The political polarization and resistance to austerity policies evident in Europe and elsewhere underscores just how messy a prolonged economic downturn is likely to be. Japan’s experience is instructive, not predictive. Unfortunately, as Brazilian writer Paulo Coelho once observed, ‘Every time we repeat the same mistake, the price goes up.’”

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 02:57:29

‘Something (Macro) Looks Wrong – that sinking feeling the global economy just ain’t right’

Comment by Jingle Male
2016-06-17 05:36:37

When vacant units at pro forma rents become more valuable than occupied units at market rent, it is a speculative market with no fundamentals.

Comment by Captain Lou Albano
2016-06-17 06:29:23

“Pro forma” is speculation in it’s purest form, by definition.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 03:01:47

‘Home prices in North Texas have shot up about 40 percent in the last six years. And prices are almost 10 percent higher than just a year ago.
But housing analysts aren’t ready to buy into the idea that another bubble is forming for housing. “I get asked the bubble questions all the time,” said Ralph McLaughlin with Trulia. “Housing will probably flatten out and maybe drop but nothing like we saw in 2006.”

‘McLaughlin told the National Association of Real Estate Editors meeting that cities which, in the last year or two, saw the biggest percentage price increase are now seeing slower growth. “Houston has seen the biggest slowdown.”

‘Tom O’Grady with ProTeck Valuation Services also doesn’t buy into the bubble idea. “I don’t think we are in a bubble situation,” O’Grady said. “There are a lot of markets that are under control now because there is a much more regulated lending situation. Things are very, very conservative.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 03:08:35

‘The southeastern Wisconsin real estate market is in the middle of an economic deficiency; it doesn’t have enough homes in the $300,000 to $350,000 level to satiate the influx of buyers. Kevin Pehler, a prospective buyer, experiences those struggles on a firsthand basis. He and his wife — Oconomowoc High School graduates — have been looking for a home for the past six months as they ready to come home to Oconomowoc.’

‘Pehler has been monitoring the markets in Delafield, Oconomowoc and Hartland for six months, twice a day, he said. He knew going into it the process that competition would be fierce but he didn’t expect anything this severe. “We put an offer down on a house that didn’t even have a for sale sign yet,” Pehler said. “I know as soon as that sign goes up, I’ll be dead in the water.”

‘In the $300,000 to $350,000 market, demand far outweighs supply said Mike Ruzicka, president of the Greater Milwaukee Association of Realtors, and Maureen Stapleton of Stapleton Realty and Appraisal. Inventory is a problem market wide in southeastern Wisconsin. Ruzicka said under $400,000 is the sweet spot where houses tend to sell quickly.’

“Stuff is flying off the shelves,” Ruzicka said.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 03:10:29

‘The sales figures continue to show the new normal in the Metro Detroit housing market: prices steadily climbing as inventory remains far below pre-recession levels. The result is that home buyers often find themselves in bidding wars over properties, said Patrick Carolan, a realtor for Coldwell Banker Weir Manuel in Birmingham.’

“It is competitive, lots of overbids, lots of multiple offer situations,” Carolan said.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 06:27:16

‘We’re seeing an influx of buyers from places like San Francisco, Southern California, Seattle and Washington, D.C. Most new residents are lured by tech jobs and opportunities to work remotely…Locals are watching prices rise, and many realize if they don’t buy soon, they’ll miss out while homes are still affordable’

And to make a bit of money too. You gotta buy to sell.

Well now that Oconomowoc is red hot, maybe Yellen will take notice.


Comment by Puggs
2016-06-17 08:42:21

“…opportunities to work remotely…”

Seattle to Grand Rapids, yeah, that’s working remotely. LOL!

Grand Rapids…all the clouds and rain without the mountains.

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Comment by Captain Lou Albano
2016-06-17 06:35:28

“Stapleton Realty and Appraisal”

Wow. How convenient. Wide open.

Comment by Captain Lou Albano
2016-06-17 04:24:41

“National Association of Real Estate Editors”

That same clowns furiously hedging today from their own propaganda yesterday.

Comment by phony scandals
2016-06-17 05:34:54

‘Home prices in North Texas have shot up about 40 percent in the last six years. And prices are almost 10 percent higher than just a year ago.”

In my little hood in SE Region IV home prices are up a little over sixty five percent in the last four years and they are 18 percent higher than a year ago.

This is based on actual sales.

That’s normal isn’t it?

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 03:15:45

‘PH at Sherry-Netherland price chopped to $78M Chinese investor paid $70M for palatial pad in March 2015′

‘It seems $86 million was too steep a price for the penthouse at the Sherry-Netherland. The seller – a Chinese investor who paid nearly $70 million last year for the sprawling pad – has lowered the asking price to $78 million from $86 million. The 18th-floor co-op at 781 Fifth Avenue hit the market in October asking more than $9,500 a foot. The current price works out to around $8,666 per foot.’

‘With seven bedrooms and eight bathrooms, the 9,000-square-foot spread also has three terraces totaling 2,000 square feet.’

“It is one of the best offerings out there and the fact that it is a co-op, which does welcome qualified offshore buyers, with a price reduction, makes it highly competitive,” said Brown Harris Stevens’ Kathy Sloane, who has the listing. The new price, she added, “reflects the seriousness of the seller.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 03:18:12

‘Diddy may know how to sell a bottle of Cîroc, but nobody wants to buy his Park Avenue pad that’s been on and off the market since 2012. The two-bedroom, 2¹/₂ bathroom condo in Midtown Manhattan is just a bit more expensive than the vodka — nonetheless, it’s the cheapest it’s ever been.’

‘The 46-year-old rapper and music producer, also known as Sean Combs, originally listed his Park Imperial pad for $8.5 million. This week, he dropped the price down to $6.5 million. The price cut was first reported by the Observer. The Post first reported a major discounting earlier this year, from $8.5 million to $6.9 million.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 03:20:31

‘Gucci Sisters Reduce Asking Price On Fifth Ave. Penthouse By $10 Million. The condominium is currently on the market for $35 million.’

Comment by Anonymous
2016-06-17 07:45:10

Poor babies.

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Comment by taxpayers
2016-06-17 05:40:34

When oil crashed in the 80s what was the lag time to reach Dallas ?

Got oil?

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 03:30:13

‘I was mislead into buying $1M apartment with brick-wall view’

‘Stacey Widlitz expected that at a price north of $1 million, she’d get an apartment with a nicer view than a brick wall. Widlitz, a retailing expert who has appeared on CNBC, says her lawyer and real-estate agents at Douglas Elliman promised that her newly built Tribeca home opened up to the Manhattan skyline.’

‘She settled on a one-bedroom, one-bath unit at 5 Franklin Place, a 20-story building that opened in 2015 with 53 residences. Widlitz visited the building while it was still under construction in 2014. It was hard for her to tell what view she’d get from her home. “The building was wrapped in scaffolding and plastic, not all the floors were built, and there was no way for [her] to identify the exact location of the apartment in the building,” the lawsuit claims.’

‘Widlitz nonetheless shelled out $1.39 million for the pad, and claims her lawyer and the Elliman agents assured her all along that it would have the views she wanted. The purchase of the home was repeatedly delayed. When Widlitz was finally able to do a walk-through in March, she saw to her “utter dismay . . . that the windows in the apartment faced directly into a brick wall,” she charges.’

Comment by Captain Lou Albano
2016-06-17 04:06:58

The idiot signs up for a $1million apartment yet I cannot find a SFR that can’t be built for $200k or less.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-06-17 05:52:29

Boo hoo

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 03:35:52

‘How Chinese investors are doubling their money by switching from stocks to garlic’

“Manipulating the garlic market and hyping the price is pretty simple compared to the stock market and real estate. Many of my clients have stocked tens of thousands of tonnes of garlic and don’t sell it until the price rises,” another agent, Liu Yunfei, told Reuters.’

‘With a population of around 640,000 and no previous claim to fame other than proximity to the provincial capital, Jinxiang has boomed. Garlic fields stretch out around Jinxiang, and at harvest time the air is filled with dust kicked up by trucks ferrying the crop to market and storage. The town also grows onions and hot peppers.’

‘As production around Jinxiang has doubled in a decade, the ‘garlic economy’ has sprouted new villas, auto dealerships and modern retail space. “Garlic has made Jinxiang richer in the last two years,” said Su Xiuling, a local grower who makes some extra money by peeling garlic at the market once the crop is in. “There’s a huge change. Our roads are wider … and even farmers now build bigger homes.”

‘Zheng Xiang from Chengdu in southwestern Sichuan – a more than 2-hour flight away – is one of those investors who converge on Jinxiang each year to meet their agents, inspect the crop and check on prices. “I came to inspect the market and see how big the harvest is and whether the price has increased,” Zheng said.’

‘Zheng invested 300,000 yuan ($45,664) in garlic last year and plans to spend up to 2 million yuan this year – hoping to recoup some of the 60,000 yuan he lost on the stock market when property shares fell.’

“Isn’t everybody switching from stocks to agriculture commodities now? It’s the trend. Speculating with garlic is similar to stocks, but (physical) garlic is not as unreliable as futures (trading),” he said.’

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-06-17 06:24:04

Well that stinks. How could they?

Comment by snake charmer
2016-06-17 07:26:52

I throw this one out there without comment. I’m trying to visualize the scene.


SHANGHAI — Walt Disney Co. opened Shanghai Disneyland, its first theme park in mainland China, with a lavish celebration Thursday featuring Communist Party leaders, a children’s choir, Sleeping Beauty and other Disney characters.

A vice premier joined Disney CEO Bob Iger in cutting the grand opening’s red ribbon, showing the ruling party’s support for the $5.5 billion investment in promoting tourism at a time of slowing economic growth. They read letters of congratulations from the Chinese and American presidents, Xi Jinping and Barack Obama.

“This is one of the proudest and most exciting moments in the history of the Walt Disney Co.,” Iger said after the choir sang. Later, actors dressed as Sleeping Beauty, Donald Duck and other Disney characters danced on stage.

Comment by redmondjp
2016-06-17 09:46:20

Just don’t ask what is in the hot dogs . . .

Comment by Anonymous
2016-06-17 07:48:23

Then: tulip bulb speculation.

Now: garlic bulb speculation.

Comment by cactus
2016-06-17 10:25:59

They will be buying up Gilroy CA next

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 03:42:12

‘Ghana Real Estate Developers Association (GREDA) is calling on the government to come to their aid to help them make sales in 2016. The Executive Secretary of GREDA, Mr. Sammy Amegayibor, said that the general reaction of members is that of apprehension.’

‘Mr. Amegayibor said that developers are lamenting over the drastic reduction of property sales. Several developers have also disclosed their concerns over unpaid bank loans, making this year a very tough one for them.’

‘Marketing Manager of Renaissance Real Estate Limited, Evans Afedi Tetteh, and a member of GREDA, described the first half of the year as one with challenges.’

“There is no shortage of houses in Ghana. There is an oversupply of expensive upper and middle class houses, which only the rich can afford. The demand for rental properties is steadily increasing in major real estate markets throughout the country. The first half of this year has been challenging though, but the second half is fully packed with ultra-modern investment opportunities with the best risk–return ratio to all stakeholders,” he said.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 03:48:40

‘The economic downturn in the country is taking its toll on the property market as buying and selling in the sector is at a low ebb, investigation by Daily Trust has revealed. any properties are available for sale but without willing buyers across the country.’

‘This, according to Barrister Festus Adebayo, a real estate consultant, might not be unconnected to the anti-corruption crusade of the President Muhammadu Buhari-led administration which has led to a reduction in money laundering by corrupt Nigerians.’

“The economic downturn is really affecting the property sector/market in the FCT to be precise. I can tell you the purchasing power of people who want to own a home has been cut down. You know this is not the time when people can get free money. I can also tell you that most of the people who have been thinking of how to own a home before have resorted to thinking about how to renew their house rent; some people cannot even afford to pay the rent at all,’’ he said.’

‘He also said that developers, who genuinely obtained loans from the banks with working interest would not allow the buildings to remain unsold for too long, this alone, according to him, would crash the prices of the houses.’

“The minister of Power, Works and Housing, Raji Fashola, said about a week ago that he was going to build affordable houses, and that the ministry is coming up with a Nigerian model wherein they will give you the size of the houses which the developer can key into, that also can affect and bring down the prices of houses,” he said.’

“When the economy is not good, a man that has been earning let say N100,000 before cannot get such again. And it will be difficult for any landlord to increase rent, which is the advantage of the present moment we are. Any landlord that tries to increase rent now is doing so maybe to send the tenants out or looking for trouble,’’ he said.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 03:54:22

‘Experts who have been calling the bottom of Dubai’s residential property market may be doing so too soon, as further price declines are likely over the next few months, according to Dubai-based Phidar Advisory. The company’s latest research note on the property market states that rent declines are getting steeper, which is likely to lead to a price slump in the coming months.’

“Talk of a house price floor is entering the media again, yet our research indicates rent declines are accelerating and will likely continue through the summer,” said Jesse Downs, the managing director of Phidar Advisory.’

‘One anomaly in Dubai is that in weaker markets more rental stock becomes available as investors who do not see an immediate prospect of selling their home decide to lease it instead. This can cause a rush to the bottom among landlords keen to let stock. Phidar pointed to a 4.1 per cent monthly decline in asking rents at the lower limits of price brackets during the first week of this month, compared with a month earlier.’

“A lot of contracts are still signed during the summer, especially people who come with their families and I think landlords are realising they are being given notice and are finding it difficult to find new tenants,” said Ms Downs.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 03:59:00

‘Phidar said that although less than 20,000 residential units had been completed over the past year, giving some stability to the market, anecdotal evidence pointing to a pattern of redundancies and slowed job growth – as a result of the impact of the oil price and tighter regional liquidity – might be beginning to take their toll.’

“Rent declines usually turn into sale price declines, especially considering the prevalence of yield-sensitive investors,” the research added. “So, the sale price decline will likely accelerate in the coming months.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 04:02:28

Speaking of “yield sensitive investors”:

‘So you see that, well, the lease started in March for $4,000 a month, but that person was actually allowed to move in four months prior. That is untraceable unless you look really, really deeply,’ she said. ‘And when you work with a REIT or a national pension fund or somebody like that, they aren’t going to the building making phone calls to the [marketing] person who worked there six months ago’

Yeah, we can’t expect people managing life savings to do the work of a leasing agent. Interesting that it’s going on. Must be some shady dudes in NYC.

Comment by Combotechie
2016-06-17 05:27:09

“Interesting that it’s going on.”

It’s not their money. The fees are theirs but the principle is not.

Comment by Combotechie
2016-06-17 05:35:01

In order to get hold of the investment capital so as to extract some hefty fees you need to make some hefty spread sheet-generated projections. If these spread sheet projections do not reflect reality … oh well.

The reality may suck for the owners of the investment capital but nevertheless some hefty fees get to be extracted.

Fees, fees it’s all about fees. Fees are where it’s at.

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 05:59:20

For the bankers, yes. But they don’t much like it when others extract fees from them, like law firms.

“Which is why when the law firm of Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP announced that it was boosting starting pay for its junior-most lawyers to $180k, causing many other law firms to do the same, BAC’s global general counsel David Leitch took action.

Upon learning of the news, Leitch sent an email to law firms which according to the WSJ, handle the bank’s litigation. In short, Leitch said that if any any firm expects to be passing on costs due to wage increases, they can forget about it because the bank isn’t paying.”


How DARE another industry charge us “excessive” fees?

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Comment by Combotechie
2016-06-17 06:11:51

In the world of desperate capital looking for a decent returns it is the money manager who makes the most successful pitch who gets to manage the desperate capital and gets to extract some hefty fees.

The money managers with the less-than-successful pitches get to watch.

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Comment by Jingle Male
2016-06-19 04:54:04

They have no principle for managing others principal.

Comment by Bluto
2016-06-17 11:49:05

I’m very leery of REIT’s, no doubt partly due to reading the HBB on and off for 10 years ;-) FWIW when I retired a few years ago and cashed out my pension (ZIRP made the cashout waaay bigger than it would have been if interest rates were normal) some financial planners tried to sell me on two and gave me some very slick (and obviously expensive to produce) packages….they were a little too slick and what I read about REIT’s in general and people in the RE business put me off.

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-06-17 12:24:05

I’m assuming the “slick packages” were for PRIVATE REITs.

I had a similar discussion with my former neighbor regarding such REITs. He was being pitched on one of the REITs that promised 8% cash on cash returns. He had the offering books as well.

I convinced him to NOT make the investment:

First off, those REITs often have HUGE loads (I’ve seen numbers as high as 16%–only 84 cents of every dollar gets to work)–his advisor would have gotten paid a very nice amount for him to invest;

Second, those REITs often start by paying out MORE than the cash flow the properties they own generate. In other words, they are paying some of the yield with your own capital. Ponzi-light, if you will. Their hope is that in the future, cash flow would grow to a point where it can pay 100% of the 8% return, but that is a speculative bet.

So, you invest $100, $84 gets to “work” and for some time, some of the $84 comes back to you as “yield” even though it’s actually just your capital coming back. The high yield is simply an enticement to enter into a deal that pays huge fees…the reality is that the assets you buy are going to be very similar to what you could buy in a public REIT.

How these offerings are legal is beyond me, but these points are probably all included within the “risk factors” in the 100 page offering documents (with 8 point type).

I did however, encourage him to look at the public REITs. While the dividend yields are much, much lower than the private REITs promise (2-4%), public REITs:

1) need to provide financials quarterly with the CFO and CEO signing off;
2) the assets generally generate more cash flow than the dividend that is paid out;
3) they are typically much bigger than private REITs, so the management overhead as a percentage of assets is much smaller; and
4) for $8.95 from Schwab, you can enter (or exit) meaningful positions in public REITs with the click of a mouse.

Commonly I see payout ratios for Public REITs of more like 60-70%, not 100%+.

Also, at that time pre-2011, REIT prices were generally depressed, so there was less risk of buying at a high point.

AND, his goal was not capital appreciation, but inflation-protected income generation. In that regard, public REITs were not a bad place to park money for cash flow.

Comment by Jingle Male
2016-06-19 05:01:23

I agree. Public REITS have generally been a good investment vehicle the last two decades.

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Comment by Captain Lou Albano
2016-06-19 12:45:37

They were collapsing in 2008-2011.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 04:12:02

Article for all the cultural relativists, and remember also the United States has been militarily involved in Afghanistan for almost 15 years:

“The Taliban are using child sex slaves to mount crippling insider attacks on police in southern Afghanistan, exploiting the pervasive practice of “bacha bazi” — paedophilic boy play — to infiltrate security ranks, multiple officials and survivors of such assaults told AFP.

The ancient custom is prevalent across Afghanistan, but nowhere does it seem as entrenched as in the province of Uruzgan, where “bacha bereesh” — or boys without beards — widely become objects of lustful attraction for powerful police commanders.”


No “smaller government” or “less regulation” or “lower taxes” happening here.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-06-17 06:26:53

Sign up, gear up to go there, boots on the ground, to liberate them. But don’t lie and say you represent Americans.

Comment by TheFabulousMoolah
2016-06-17 07:37:49

You don’t need to go there, we are bringing them here, like the Taliban supporting Orlando shooter’s dad.

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 08:37:34

yeah, whatever happened to “we’ve got to fight them over there” so we don’t have to fight them here?

Oh, that’s sooo yesterday. We’ll do both!

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Comment by CalifoH20
2016-06-17 09:09:00

Who kicked that beehive?

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 04:15:18

FoxNewsHate rallies the base:

“Dozens of U.S. officials have called on the Obama administration to order “targeted military strikes” against the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, with the aim of pressuring Damascus to accept a binding cease-fire and engage in peace talks.

The Wall Street Journal reported that 51 State Department officials advising Syria policy signed the so-called “dissent channel cable”.

State Department spokesman John Kirby confirmed the cable’s existence Thursday, but said he would not comment further until officials have reviewed its contents.”


No “smaller government” or “less regulation” or “lower taxes” happening here.

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 05:10:43

Heh, you beat me to it, posting the two stories that caught my eye this morning, this one above and the Southern Poverty Lie Center story below.

I’m not sure which one is more sinister. The “Hate” Department wants to start WWIII, apparently. Well, look on the bright side. If Putin responds with an EMP attack, the Southern Poverty Lie Center is out of business.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 05:36:06

These poverty pimps have the lead article on New York Times, Washington Post, UK Guardian, that tells you everything you need to know about Diane Feinstein’s designated list of real journalists.

Real journalists = statist pigs who hate hate hate free speech.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 05:19:03

“It is no coincidence that she has drawn admiring remarks from Robert Kagan and other neo-conservative luminaries who envisage her as a President sympathetic to their audacious, muscular conception of American foreign policy. The coalescing of the neo-cons and the gung-ho liberal interventionists who pushed hard for the Libyan intervention (Samantha Powers, Ann-Marie Slaughter, Susan Rice) who now promote aiding the Saudis and GCC in Yemen, and wading into Syria involves a number of people who worked for Hillary in the State Department and/or figure prominently among her current advisors. The outstanding example is Victoria Nuland – Hillary’s spokesperson at State and now Assistant Secretary of State for Europe – who has aggressively spearheaded the anti-Russian crusade. Previously, she had been principal deputy foreign policy advisor for Vice-President Dick Cheney. Nuland’s was escorted into the Obama administration by Strobe Talbot who was her boss at Brookings and viewed her as his protege. Talbot himself, who had been Deputy Secretary of State during the second Bill Clinton administration, has moved progressively toward the hawkish end of the foreign policy establishment continuum (admittedly a rather short band width these days). The affiliation at Brookings of the prominent neo-con Robert Kagan, Nuland’s husband, may have cemented the deal.”


Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 06:42:11

The neos (neoliberal, neocons, just call them the neos) are going into overdrive, which tells me they’re not so sure of a Clinton presidency.

The fact that the State Department is agitating for war tells you everything you need to know. I’ve said before that the State Department is meddling with the DOD to the point that they’ve basically taken the hat of the DOD.

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 06:56:24


“And finally, one last reason emerges: the US is merely pandering to Saudi demands, something it has clearly done very well ever since the Sep 11 attacks which covered up Saudi involvement:

The cable also echoes the growing impatience among U.S. Gulf allies with the lack of military intervention targeted at the Damascus government to force Mr. Assad to resign and make way for a transitional government. Peace talks between Syria’s government and opposition collapsed in April over Mr. Assad’s fate, with the regime insisting he should stay in power, while the negotiated cease-fire continued to disintegrate. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pressed the U.S. to provide more sophisticated weapons to rebels. But Washington has resisted.
In other words, if the US does fold and proceeds with military strikes, i.e. full blown invasion and war, on Assad, it will once again be Saudi Arabia that is running US foreign policy, and pushing the US nation into what may be a state of open war with Russia.

We can only hope the American people wake up and stop this travesty before Saudi Arabia’s favorite presidential candidate is elected president.”

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Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-06-17 07:31:27

When the other candidate wins, they can rule him by flattery.

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 07:32:16

“We can only hope the American people wake up and stop this travesty before Saudi Arabia’s favorite presidential candidate is elected president.”

When it comes to Hillary supporters, you can’t fix stupid.

You could show her supporters authenticated, eye witness snuff films of her and Bill with two year olds and all of Hollywood would be at her feet. George Clooney would host another fund raiser and Morgan Freeman, Steven Spielberg, Jeffrey Katzenberg and Chelsea Handler would pony up another cool million apiece.

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 08:20:52

“When the other candidate wins, they can rule him by flattery.”

I dunno, didn’t work for Bette Midler. And boy did she get pissed when it didn’t.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-06-17 08:46:51

That sounds like a bunch of nonsense. First they write that the US government is just doing what the Saudis want. Then they say the opposite. It makes no sense that a country which is a banana theocracy would have such influence over the global hegemon.

Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2016-06-17 08:55:04

It doesn’t have to make sense. The important thing is to be outraged and afraid.

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 09:19:14

Who said anything about making sense? Since when does any of this global warring make sense? Don’t go looking for logic where only insanity exists.

The banana theocracy has LOTS of moolah and has spread it around quite liberally around Washington. That’s the carrot. When the carrot doesn’t work, they use the stick. That’s 9/11.

Oil, gas, that’s all they’ve got. They want that Qatari pipeline. It’s not happening because Syria is in the way. Therefore, Assad has got to go, they’ve paid good money and want some results.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-06-17 09:33:13

It’s zero hedge that makes no sense. Regardless of the amount of money that Saudis have, it’s still silly to think that their influence would be greater than US oil companies, defense contractors and other corporations who have an interest in American violence in that part of the world.

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 10:06:36

It’s not silly if they’re the ones ponying up the most jack.

I’m no fan of Obama’s, but I truly think he doesn’t want this, and hopes to equivocate as long as he can until he leaves office. It’s one thing to destroy Syria and bring waves of ME inhabitants to the US to hasten its destruction domestically, but it’s quite another to prompt WW III. Not something he wants for a legacy, assuming he’d still be alive to have one.

Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2016-06-17 10:48:43

How does Obama benefit from destroying the United States? Does he get evil genius points or what?

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 12:42:47

“How does Obama benefit from destroying the United States? Does he get evil genius points or what?”

A deep sense of satisfaction.

Comment by snake charmer
2016-06-17 12:51:11

“It makes no sense that a country which is a banana theocracy would have such influence over the global hegemon.”

It makes plenty of sense. Saudi Arabia has huge reserves of easy-to-extract light crude oil, and we don’t. Nor does China and nor does Europe. Or Japan. Or South America or Australia. Any nation with aspirations of being the global hegemon had better start right there in the Middle East. We allow the Saudis influence, and forgive them their terrorists, because it’s easier and cheaper than coercive forms of persuasion.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-06-17 13:12:54

Trust me. It’s not necessary to go to war in Syria to please the Saudi king to have the necessary influence in the region. There’s not much point in being a superpower in the first place if other, smaller countries are going to us which countries to attack.

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 13:59:25

Washington is not a superpower, I hate to tell you. Wait until the first major conflict ignites with Russia and/or China and you’ll see how little there is of any superpower in Washington. From the looks of things, we’re real close to getting a harsh does of reality. The fact that Congress wants to conscript women is a pretty good clue, though. And other stuff, like the open borders, crappy trade deals, crumbling cities and infrastructure etc.

But we’ve got Facebook! Twitter! And the NSA!

You should listen to Trump more, he explains it over and over and over, ad nauseum. You may not like the messenger, but tough noogies. We can’t always choose who brings the bad tidings. And that’s why so many are pissed off at the guy. They can’t handle the truth. They don’t like bad news. He pours cold water over all the blather about “American Exceptionalism”.

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 14:45:31
Comment by MightyMike
2016-06-17 18:55:04

America is still the world’s strongest military power, unfortunately. We may be a mess at home, but have unparalleled ability to dish out death and destruction around the world.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 04:26:07

‘Dotted across the country from Harbin in the north to the tropical island of Hainan in the south, China’s 134 city commercial banks have multiplied their risks by piling into opaque investment products just as bad loans are rising. Warning signs are flashing at lenders such as China Resources Bank of Zhuhai Co., which posted a 90 percent slump in profit in 2015 after almost tripling loan-loss provisions.’

‘Banks in industrial rust-belt provinces such as Liaoning, Shanxi and Heilongjiang are especially exposed to slumping local economies and struggling industries such as steel and coal. In a sign of the strains, Dongbei Special Steel Group Co. has defaulted multiple times on bonds this year and its chairman, Yang Hua, was found dead by hanging in March.’

‘Bank of Beijing Co. and Bank of Tianjin Co. are among lenders to Bohai Steel Group Co., a financially crippled steelmaker in Tianjin, Caixin magazine reported in April. Tianjin’s local government asked banks to keep lending to the business as officials, steel executives and bankers jostled over how to handle the collapse, the magazine said.’

‘Bank of Beijing declined to comment and calls to the general phone line for the Tianjin government went unanswered. Calls to Bank of Tianjin went unanswered.’

‘The city banks — which together hold 15 percent, or $3.6 trillion, of the nation’s commercial banking assets — have jumped into the financial engineering that lets Chinese banks disguise lending by buying “investments” from intermediaries such as securities firms, trust companies or other banks. Assets showing up on banks’ balance sheets as financial investments are often backed by loans.’

“A small bank may face a liquidity problem if their investments are in default and that will trigger a domino effect,” said Patricia Cheng, a Hong Kong-based analyst at brokerage CLSA Ltd. “Any failure of a financial institution will hurt sentiment and the psychological effects just can’t be quantified.”

‘The rise of financial investments could be a sign that lenders are sidestepping regulators’ restrictions on extending credit to risky real-estate projects or industries saddled with overcapacity, such as coal, steel, cement and glass, according to Moody’s Investors Service. Adding to the perils, local-government ownership of smaller banks makes them vulnerable to pressure to lend to officials’ pet projects.’

‘In the south, Bank of Liuzhou Co.’s bad loans surged 154 percent in 2015, with China Business Media reporting in February this year that a borrower had fabricated documents and set up shell companies to steal 30 billion yuan from the lender. China Resources Bank of Zhuhai cited a slower economy as its bad loans jumped 70 percent last year. The lender’s investment receivables — a category that can include disguised lending — had climbed 35 percent. The Liuzhou bank declined to comment. Calls to the Zhuhai lender went unanswered.’

‘In Hebei province, Bank of Cangzhou’s bad-loan buffer — the amount set aside for future soured loans versus existing levels of nonperforming credit — shrank to 194 percent by the end of 2015 from 488 percent a year earlier. One of the bank’s largest shareholders is also its single largest borrower, according to its annual report. Calls to the lender went unanswered.’

“There is no doubt that small city banks are the weakest link in China’s banking system,” said Mu Hua, a Guangzhou-based analyst at GF Securities Co. “The concentration of their business in the home town means that they are more reliant on the local economy and government support than anybody else.”

Comment by Anonymous
2016-06-17 07:57:46

Wow, China already has an “industrial rust-belt”? That was quick!

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 04:31:43

‘A dangerous cocktail of falling house prices, rock bottom interest rates on mortgages and a weak global economy will put a serious squeeze on Britain’s banks, analysts have warned.’

‘The long boom in the housing market – particularly in London – is starting to slow down. Higher stamp duty rates and extra property taxes for landlords are putting off buyers, while demand from Chinese investors is declining because of a government crackdown on transferring capital out of the country and slowing economic growth. Meanwhile, first-time buyers are finding it impossible to get onto the housing ladder because properties have become prohibitively expensive, which is sapping demand.’

“Secured lending in [London and the south east] makes up around 55pc of the overall market. Moreover, the south is where the bubble is and will hurt the banks the most,” said analyst Chirantan Barua at Bernstein Research.’

“We will see what happens on June 23, but our short on the UK goes much beyond Brexit – stamp duty, rise in unemployment, end of quantitative easing, Chinese capital controls, offshore account scrutiny etc. Trough-to-peak, prices in the south have increased nearly 60pc while wages have hardly moved. Quite clearly, this isn’t a short-term, event-driven issue.”

‘Banks rely on strong house prices to spur demand for mortgages from buyers and to act as a security buffer against those mortgages - if prices fall, then the banks’ safety net is diminished. Falling interest rates are also a problem for banks, because it means they make less money on the loans they give out.’

“UK bank investors would be wise to get out if there were to be a pop, given the housing market has not one but a motley collection of headwinds going against it for the next two years,” Mr Barua said.’

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 04:32:22

Southern Poverty Law Center rallies the base for globalists:

“The man arrested over the killing of the MP Jo Cox bought books from a US-based neo-Nazi group, including guides on how to build homemade guns and explosives, according an anti-hate campaign group in the US.

The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) published receipts that appeared to show Thomas Mair bought, among other books, a manual on how to make a homemade pistol from the National Alliance.”


No “smaller government” or “less regulation” or “lower taxes” happening here.

Comment by Apartment 401
Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 05:34:29

“If the political left weren’t so joyless, humorless, intrusive, taxing, overtaxing, anarchistic, controlling, rudderless, chaos-prone, pedantic, unrealistic, hypocritical, clueless, politically correct, angry, cruel, sanctimonious, retributive, redistributive, intolerant—and if the political left weren‘t hell-bent on expansion of said unpleasantness into all aspects of my family’s life—the truth is, I would not be in your life.” Andrew Breitbart

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 05:47:23

The totalitarian left want to extinguish every aspect of individuality and fundamentally transform humanity into a blob of docile, collectivist sludge.

And thought criminals will be executed, it’s the progressive way.

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Comment by nhtransplant
2016-06-17 08:52:16

Someday we can all be just like Brazil!

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-06-17 06:31:28

Leftists are anarchists? What a crock.

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Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 06:53:37

I wouldn’t call it a crock. The idea is to use anarchy and the accompanying disorder as a tool to justify the use of repressive state control over the populace.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-06-17 07:35:36

Anybody in government is controlling, by definition. By singling out the left, you ignore the threat of the right.

Comment by TheFabulousMoolah
2016-06-17 07:39:48

I think you are talking about actual anarchy. Bill’s anarchy definition has a bunch of rules about what is a true anarchist.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-06-17 09:08:31

voluntaryist.com paragraph at top of page.

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 05:18:22

Well, isn’t that special? Didn’t take long for the Southern Poverty Lie Center to manufacture some “evidence” tying the “lone wolf” murder in the UK to a US group, although they must have been working overnight to git ‘er done. But, as I mentioned above, if their neocon warmongering buddies at State are successful, an EMP attack will put them out of business, and I don’t think think anyone will trade a horse and buggy for their propaganda.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 05:39:35

SPLC’s end game is collectivist genocide. Their troll farm posters should be showing up here at noon eastern time when they clock in for their shifts.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-06-17 07:36:40

Lizard people always sleep past noon, goon.

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Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 06:09:06

“although they must have been working overnight to git ‘er done.”

Why, it’s almost as if they had it all prepared and ready to go!

Comment by Anonymous
2016-06-17 08:21:52

Does the SPLC ever analyze or report on the gun violence ravaging black communities in the US?

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 08:32:16

Wrong narrative.

Let the Washington Post and CNN do your thinking for you.

Comment by redmondjp
2016-06-17 10:16:58

According to NPR, there is no ‘gun violence’ affecting black communities. It’s the fault of ineffective police.

In several stories on NPR this spring on Chicago killings, there was NOT ONE mention of ‘gun violence.’

But when I turned on NPR last Sunday morning (not having yet heard the news about the nightclub shooting), I swear they used that term at least five times within the first minute of my listening time. I changed the channel and listened to a local indy station playing bluegrass music instead.

Always control the narrative.


Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 04:36:53

‘If the Federal Reserve did not start increasing interest rates, that could the cause of the next U.S. recession, former Fed Governor Robert Heller told CNBC. “There is a very dangerous scenario building up in the U.S. because the rates are so low and for so long,” Heller, who was on the Fed’s Board of Governors from 1986 to 1989, warned.’

“Pension funds and insurance companies will sooner or later have a very hard time fulfilling their obligations and that would be definitely triggering the next recession,” he said. “When that will happen, when they will run out of money, when they can not fulfill their obligations, nobody really knows, but that may be the trigger for the next big downturn in the U.S.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 04:43:32

Not to worry, these pensions and insurance companies have piled into multi-family housing:

‘Investors are still eager to buy apartment properties, but they just aren’t as eager to pay quite so much for them. “Deal volume is pulling back as buyers and sellers are simply moving further apart on pricing expectations,” says Jim Costello, senior vice president with New York City-based research firm Real Capital Analytics (RCA).’

‘The volume of deals that closed in May to buy and sell apartment properties shrank, after a strong start to the year. Apartment properties remain very desirable, especially in uncertain economic times, but some buyers are resisting the high prices sellers are asking for them. The volume of deals fell especially far in changing markets including Houston and San Francisco while investors turned to secondary markets where yields are higher.’

‘The volume of properties that traded in April fell to just $5.6 billion—the lowest monthly volume in years, according to RCA. The slow month comes after a strong beginning to the year: investors traded $45.0 billion in apartment properties in the first four months of 2016, up from $42.7 billion during the same period last year.’

‘At the same time, prices continue to rise for apartment properties, relative to the income they produce. Cap rates fell to an average of 5.8 percent in April, down from 6.0 percent the year before. Most of that decrease happened over the past few months. “Surprising (to some) is that while deal volume has pulled back, pricing is still tight. Normally one might expect these to move together,” says Costello.’

‘Apartment properties still manage to attract buyers because of the fundamental strength of the apartment markets, especially compared to other property types that have traded at decisively lower volumes so far in 2016.’

‘As more investors buy and renovate older apartment properties, the prices of older rental communities are getting closer to the prices of new apartment buildings. “The premium for new properties is decreasing,” says Ethan Vaisman, real estate economist at CoStar Portfolio Strategy. “The value-added play is driving the narrowing spreads.”

‘Investors now pay an average of $230,000 per unit to buy apartment properties that are less than 10 years old, compared to $138,000 per unit for older properties. That’s a 66 percent premium—a higher premium for new properties compared to 2005 or 2006.’

‘Investors are also buying in secondary markets in large volumes. The volume of sales in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., for example, has doubled over the last year, according to CoStar. “People are scanning outward,” says Vaisman. “Capital is finding its way into overflow markets.”

‘Buyers and sellers are not giving up on troubled markets, like Houston, where the local economy has unspooled with falling oil prices. “There are lots of sharks in the water waiting to buy assets,” says Vaisman. Instead, the volume of sales of apartment properties has fallen sharply and buyers and sellers disagree on pricing.’

‘Potential sellers believe that these markets will recover, and are refusing to sell at bargain prices. “Everybody in Houston is holding on and waiting for things to come back.”

‘Buyers and sellers are also doing fewer deals in the San Francisco Bay Area, where the volume of sales of apartment assets has fallen as much as 20 percent in the last year, according to CoStar. “The Bay Area has been the key example of things being on fire,” says Vaisman. Now the market is taking a pause.’

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-06-17 10:25:30

Cap rates are interesting, but only if you consider them in the context of the rents being collected relative to market rents.

I see all the time people quoting 4% cap office building sales. However, if you look more deeply, that 4% cap sale might be at a pretty low price per foot. Why? Well geez, it turns out that the main tenant in the building is paying a historically low rent that they negotiated in 2010, and that tenant’s lease expires in 6 months (where the new owner can raise the rent meaningfully).

Is that purchase better or worse than a 7% cap purchase at a higher price per foot, where the tenant in-place is paying a market rent PLUS amortized TIs for their specialized improvements?

The punch line is that a 4% cap purchase might be more attractive than a 7% cap purchase–it all depends on the details.

Broadly though, in an environment where we have been moving from a very low rent environment to one where rents are much higher, low cap rate sales comparables can be deceiving.

Comment by cactus
2016-06-17 10:56:51

Bank America is offering 0.04% CD how far does that fund a pension?

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 11:24:34

“There are lots of sharks in the water waiting to buy assets”

Knife catchers are good.

Comment by Bluto
2016-06-17 11:56:40

The OTM blog has a good recent article on the impending collapse of pension funds….
(like the HBB the OTM blog has been around for a long time and also called Housing Bubble 1.0 long before it popped)


Comment by Jingle Male
2016-06-19 05:10:19

“….. but that may be the trigger for the next big downturn in the U.S.”

The trigger for the next recession has already been pulled……6 years of expansion. 2017 will be a year of contraction.

Comment by Captain Lou Albano
2016-06-19 12:44:21

Duration is meaningless considering this is an unprecedented mania, not a cycle.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 04:55:13

‘Douglas Peebles, who oversees more than $200 billion at AllianceBernstein Holding LP as chief investment officer of fixed income, said that years of central banking stimulus have propelled asset prices to levels that may be unsustainable.’

“I’m not very bullish on financial asset prices at the moment,” Peebles said Tuesday during an insurance conference in New York hosted by S&P Global Ratings. “I’m not allowed to call this one a bubble yet, but I actually think we’re in a bubble, sorry.”

‘Investors are paying more for bonds as central banks work to stimulate economic growth. The yield on Germany’s 10-year bund dropped below zero for the first time on record on Tuesday, as the nation joined Japan and Switzerland as major economies with negative figures for that duration.’

“I call that confiscation of money,” Peebles said. “If central banks could just create wealth and create growth then Zimbabwe and Argentina would be the richest countries in the world.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 05:01:51

‘The National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI), created in November 2012, is a measure of housing market risk devised by the International Center on Housing Risk at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). It is intended to determine the ability of the housing market to withstand stresses similar to the 2007 financial crisis, and therefore act as a warning bell to prevent a future housing crash.’

‘NMRI is presented monthly as a percentage value, representing how many current mortgages would be expected to default with the return of the financial conditions of 2007. The index is determined by comparing current government-backed loans to the performance of loans with the same risk profiles during the financial crisis. Each of the government backing agencies — Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Rural Housing Service (RHS), and the Veteran’s Administration (VA) — has an individual risk number assigned, and all five numbers are assigned into a composite score.’

‘The composite NMRI value for April 2016 was 12.59%, which is the highest value it has ever reached. For the most part, the NMRI has been on a steady upward trend since a trough of 10.35% in August 2013. Higher-risk FHA and RHS loans have an index of 24.04% and 19.44% respectively, but it is the risk increase in the larger number of Fannie/Freddie backed loans (6.37% combined) that is driving the composite upward.’

‘Attempting to refine the risk assessment further, AEI created a new style of MRI called the First-Time Buyer Mortgage Risk Index (FBMRI) to study this higher-risk category. That value reached 15.8% in April, compared to a 10.4% risk for repeat buyers. Both are the highest values ever registered.’

‘The combined share of first-time buyers for both government-backed and private sector loans using this definition, known as the First-Time Buyer Mortgage Share Index (FBMSI), rose to 52.9% of home sales in April. Prices are rising as a result and outpacing income for entry-level homebuyers, forcing them to take on greater collective risk to purchase a home. 70% of first-time homebuyers had a combined loan-to-value (CLTV) ratio of 95% or higher (meaning 5% down payment or less). 28% of first-time homebuyers had debt-to-income (DTI) ratios greater than 43% (the limit under the Qualified Mortgage rule) and 22% had a FICO credit score below 660 — flirting with the boundaries of subprime mortgages.’

‘One of AEI’s Charts of the Month for June shows the similarities between the early years leading up to the housing crisis and the current situation. We have been in a seller’s market for 43 months, home prices are beginning to surge, and loan volumes are increasing. The leverage of the current seller’s market is similar to that of the early years of the boom that preceded the housing crisis (1998-2001).’

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-06-17 10:31:26

Thanks for sending the article. These kinds of indices are interesting.

I wish though that they would estimate what the index might have looked like years prior to 2012. An “all time high” with a sampling of the 4 years from 2012 isn’t the same kind of red flag that it would be if it were an “all time high” with data going back to 2000.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 05:07:37

‘In April, an annualized 373,000 homes were started in projects with five or more residences. While below the 428,000 registered in April of last year, when builders in New York were racing to get a tax credit before it expired, it was still well above levels that prevailed prior to the recession.’

‘But the apartment-building boom may be in for a cooling-off period. The problem, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Michelle Meyer, is that much of the recent apartment construction has been concentrated in luxury buildings in the largest U.S. cities. Now it looks as if these high-end markets may become oversupplied. Indeed, the Federal Reserve’s most recent survey of loan officers showed tightening lending standards for multifamily commercial real estate—an indication that banks may view funding luxury apartments as a riskier proposition.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 05:15:56

‘Last month, for the second month in a row, the annual rise in rental income approached 4 percent, nearly four times the overall inflation rate of just 1 percent for the last 12 months. Over the last four years, while the supply of pricier homes has increased, the number of starter homes on the market dropped by 44 percent, Trulia said.’

‘With inventory shrinking, home prices are rising — up more than 30 percent since 2012 in the starter-home price range. That’s made homebuying even less affordable for first timers; the median starter house consumes about 38 percent of the typical first-time homebuyer’s income, up from 32 percent four years ago, Trulia estimates.’

‘The inventory squeeze for first-time buyers is playing out unevenly around the country. Eight of the 25 tightest markets among the 100 largest metro areas are in California. In Denver, Colo., starter-home inventories have fallen by 77 percent in the last four years, while the median price for that range of home jumped 78 percent, according to Trulia’s analysis.’

‘Rising rents are hitting lower-income households hardest, according to a recent analysis by the Pew Charitable Trusts. Over the last 20 years, housing has consumed a bigger share of the typical American household’s budget at all income levels. But while those in the lower third spend less in dollar terms than those higher on the income ladder, they spent a much bigger share of their income than other households that rented.’

This is important. Look at the last graph on this link, the “lower third rents” group. Our government has created a travesty of affordability.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 05:14:08

Burn, baby, burn:

“Wildfires to the south of the state Thursday brought in hazy skies and smoke over Colorado.

The National Weather Service said fires in New Mexico and Arizona — including the Dog Head fire, which that has grown to thousands of acres in New Mexico — are to blame for the smoke.

A small fire that started Wednesday near Fort Carson also is to blame.

The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment issued an alert for sensitive groups for the Front Range corridor from El Paso County north to Larimer and Weld counties, including the Denver-Boulder area, Colorado Springs, Fort Collins and Greeley.”


Comment by TheFabulousMoolah
2016-06-17 07:41:59

Aren’t these people who live in teeny tiny towns always in the path of wildfires the same as the people in Florida always in the path of the Hurricanes. Government subsidizing where they are living.

Comment by cactus
2016-06-17 11:01:15

GOLETA, Calif. — Fueled by hot and dry weather, the Santa Barbara fire threatened homes as crews struggled to corral flames that have scorched miles of brush and timber in California and other Western states.

About 140 homes and ranches were considered at risk in California, where a 1,400-acre fire was tearing through coastal canyons west of Santa Barbara, scorching an area that hadn’t burned in 60 years.”

woke up to a yellow sky

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 05:23:17

‘Housing & condo boom along purple line connecting north Bangkok with rest of city, but many units remain unsold in current slow economy.’

‘Some districts in Nonthaburi also have the largest supply of units remaining for sale. The skytrain is scheduled to open an extension to Samut Prakan soon also and the many condos being built along this line are also experiencing slow sales.’

‘The glut of condos along the Purple Line led some developers to freeze their new projects there to observe the effect once the Purple Line starts operation. One condo developer reports that its two condo projects in Nonthaburi have 30% still unsold after launching. The developer has no plans to start new projects along the Purple Line now as there is an oversupply.’

‘Some developers speculate that even once the Purple Line starts operation the glut may still not be absorbed. It’s not about the effect of the Purple Line operation. It’s about homebuyers and their ability to get mortgages approved, say some developers.’

‘Two of the top five districts in Greater Bangkok for low-rise units remaining for sale as of the end of 2015 were also in Nonthaburi: Bang Bua Thong and Bang Yai. They had a combined 10,560 units comprising 40% of the total in the top five. Bang Bua Thong ranked third for total supply and first for unsold units.’

‘The situation was the same for condos. The most unsold condo units were in Muang Nonthaburi with 9,458, or 16% of the total condo supply in Greater Bangkok. Second was Muang Samut Prakan with 7,592 units remaining for sale. These are also the top two districts for condo supply in Greater Bangkok with 21,623 and 16,659 units, respectively.’

Comment by TheFabulousMoolah
2016-06-17 07:43:26

New slogan: The stronger the Purple Line the Greater the Bangkok.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 05:25:05

Cloward-Piven in action:

“The “maximum family grant” was a key feature in the welfare reforms adopted by California and other states in the mid-1990s. The idea was that welfare recipients should not be given an incentive to give birth while on the dole, so the amount of aid they received would be tied to the size their family was when they started receiving benefits. If another baby came along, well, too bad. Unless mom was raped, a victim of incest or could prove that the birth control didn’t work, there would be no benefit increase.

It was a repugnant policy and, furthermore, it didn’t seem to work. Studies have found little evidence of a link between caps in benefits and reproduction. What we do know, however, is that the maximum family grant rule punished poor kids for the choices of their parents.

Good riddance to this bad policy. It should have been repealed it long ago. Like, the minute it was adopted. The cap on benefits was based on the apocryphal story of the “welfare queen” — a term popularized by Ronald Reagan as he was campaigning for president — describing women who gamed the welfare system by popping out babies and amassing a fortune at the expense of gullible taxpayers.”


California is the most impoverished state in the country.

Comment by taxpayers
2016-06-17 06:08:56

I hope VA sends our FSA to
MD is close but temporarily has gop governor.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-06-17 07:39:25

Perhaps they could eat their excess offspring.

Comment by TheFabulousMoolah
2016-06-17 07:46:29

Maybe if your kid is being born on the dole, delivered by a doctor paid for by the government, then you should have your tubes also tied, then and there.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 05:33:14

The totalitarian left hate Thomas Sowell, and get a free pass for being racist and calling him an Uncle Tom:

“Is diversity our strength? Or anybody’s strength, anywhere in the world? Does Japan’s homogeneous population cause the Japanese to suffer? Have the Balkans been blessed by their heterogeneity — or does the very word “Balkanization” remind us of centuries of strife, bloodshed and unspeakable atrocities, extending into our own times?

Has Europe become a safer place after importing vast numbers of people from the Middle East, with cultures hostile to the fundamental values of Western civilization?

Smug elites in Europe, like their counterparts in America, are not nearly as concerned about such things as they are about preventing “Islamophobia.” Legal restrictions on free speech in some European countries make it a crime to sound the alarm about the dangers to the culture and to the people.

In the lofty circles of those who see themselves as citizens of the world, it is considered unworthy, if not hateful, to insist on living according to your own Western values or to resist importing people who increase your chances of being killed.”


Facebook, Google, Reddit, are all censoring criticism of globalism.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-06-17 07:41:11

I don’t care what color they are or what sky wizard they pray to: there are too many people in this country. Immigrants can immigrate somewhere else.

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 08:35:45

But, b-b-but, a better life!

All kidding aside, way too many people.

Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2016-06-17 08:52:04

There are plenty of delicious foreign foods here already… I have no use for any other foreign cultural bits.

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Comment by MightyMike
2016-06-17 08:55:19

In the lofty circles of those who see themselves as citizens of the world, it is considered unworthy, if not hateful, to insist on living according to your own Western values or to resist importing people who increase your chances of being killed.

He should supply names of actual people who have these attitudes.

Comment by taxpayers
2016-06-17 05:33:36

my old man used to say”why would we do as well as Japan ?”
they have worka holics we have the FSA

“When Japan entered its downturn, however, the country had several advantages that nations today don’t. For many, a Japan-style slump may be the best-case scenario. The political polarization and resistance to austerity policies evident in Europe and elsewhere underscores just how messy a prolonged economic downturn is likely to be. Japan’s experience is instructive

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 05:43:00

Lead article on Huffington Post scripts the following narrative:

“Support for stricter gun laws is up sharply after America’s most deadly mass shooting to date, a new HuffPost/YouGov survey finds.

Americans are more concerned about gun violence and more optimistic that such shootings can be stopped than they were in a poll taken just days before the attacks.

A 55 percent majority of respondents now say they support stricter guns laws, up 7 points since earlier this month. The share of Americans who believe that gun violence is a very serious problem rose by a similar margin, while the percentage who think that passing gun control is possible and that shootings are preventable saw smaller upticks.”


And the way this narrative ends is with you and your entire family choking on poison gas in a screaming pile of bodies and your corpses shoveled into ovens like manure.

History does not lie.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 05:52:36

Quote from Howard Stern (who is Jewish, btw):

“Nazi Germany – which, by the way, didn’t happen 1,000 years ago – it happened within my dad’s lifetime. It’s not that long ago. Can you imagine if the Jews, at least when the Nazis were banging on the door, if they had a couple of pistols and AR-15s to fight the Nazis? If Anne Frank’s father had a f—ing gun? Maybe at least he could have taken a few Nazis out.”

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-06-17 06:33:50

Also gun sales are way up.

Comment by Apartment 401
Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-06-17 07:42:49

What they support is background checks at gun shows… Just like at gun shops. Stop squealing, loon.

Comment by taxpayers
2016-06-17 08:32:31

have u been to a gun show and bought w/o background check?

Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2016-06-17 08:53:11

Its legal. Why not, insufferable pudgy gun nerds aside?

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Comment by Anonymous
2016-06-17 08:17:50

Given everyone’s short attention span these days, within a week they will have forgotten about the “tougher gun laws” they are currently “demanding.”

We heard the same thing after the other mass shootings. But unless I missed something, there hasn’t been any tightening of gun laws at the federal level.

If Sandy Hook, which involved young children, didn’t result in any new laws, I don’t think this incident will.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-06-17 09:02:23

In other words, the NRA thwarts the wishes of the population.

Comment by redmondjp
2016-06-17 10:28:23

The NRA is not the boogeyman in the closet, but nice try.

And in red-state flyover country, the population thinks differently.

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Comment by MightyMike
2016-06-17 11:33:19

There are always people who think differently about any topic.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-06-17 08:56:53

And the way this narrative ends is with you and your entire family choking on poison gas in a screaming pile of bodies and your corpses shoveled into ovens like manure.

The list of reasons that the majority shouldn’t run the country keeps getting longer.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 06:00:54

‘In a bid to attract buyers, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Hong Kong’s biggest developer by market value, is offering mortgages of as much as 120 percent of a unit’s value at one of its projects, reported Bloomberg. However, buyers of units at the Park Yoho Venezia must own another property within the city’s Yuen Long district, which will be pledged as security.’

‘The South China Morning Post earlier reported that a Sun Hung Kai spokesman had confirmed the offer. The financing scheme aims to attract buyers in a market that has witnessed a price correction of more than 13 percent since property prices peaked in September 2015.’

‘Housing prices in Hong Kong soared by 370 percent from their 2003 level to the September peak before the start of a correction, spurred by a slowdown in China and a growing housing supply. Sun Hung Kai’s financing scheme is also meant to circumvent the government’s cooling measures, which limits traditional bank loans on properties priced below HK$10 million (S$1.74 million) to 60 percent of the unit’s value.’

“Overall, property developers are very aggressive and (are) trying to offload inventory because the outlook of the Hong Kong property market is not looking good,” said Australia & New Zealand Banking Group senior economist Raymond Yeung.’

Comment by Justme
2016-06-17 11:45:00

120% ?? Does that mean that you get to overpay by 20% above appraisal, while you must pledging your other condo as collateral? That is indeed being “aggressive” on pricing, but not in the usual sense.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 06:01:57

Hope and Change:

“The owners of Dave’s Markets, who operate eight stores in the city of Cleveland, told members of City Council Thursday that a $15-an-hour minimum wage imposed only on Cleveland businesses would cripple their company and might require them to close some stores.

Steve Saltzman, vice president of Dave’s, said during a Committee of the Whole hearing on the issue that some of the company’s Cleveland stores meet the grocery needs of the community but are barely profitable. A voter-driven initiative to set the city’s minimum wage 85 percent higher than the state’s $8.10-an-hour rate would devastate the company and leave some neighborhoods without a grocery store at all, he said.

“This legislation could undo what Dave’s has been doing over the last eight decades, which is provide easy access to fresh foods in the communities we serve,” Saltzman said. “We take great pride in the fact that we have stayed in these neighborhoods where other retailers would not go or had abandoned. … But without question, Dave’s would not be able to operate as we are today if this type of legislation passes in the city of Cleveland.”


Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 06:04:53

On the fundamental transformation of Vancouver:

“Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is scheduled to meet with a round table of experts on Vancouver’s housing affordability crisis on Friday, just as new data are released showing the extreme nature of the city’s escalating housing problem.

Planner and analyst Andy Yan, who will attend the meeting, has released a comprehensive set of maps that show the rapid rise of assessed house prices over the past decade. Strikingly, his data show prices have spiked considerably within the past two years.

At least one academic at the gathering plans to make the case that Vancouver’s sudden escalation of house prices is timed perfectly with the mass exodus money from China. None of the academics interviewed was given any specifics as to what would be on the agenda, other than a general discussion of housing, so they plan to bring their wish list of recommendations to the table.”


Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 06:22:35

‘Sellers are saying, ‘Nobody said we are in a recession. Nobody said the bottom fell out of the market. Why should I reduce my house 25% when we’re not in trouble and I’m not desperate.’

To sell it?

Comment by Captain Lou Albano
2016-06-17 06:38:14

If they are asking themselves this question, they’re already in trouble and in fact feeling that sense of desperation.

Comment by The Central Scrutinizer
2016-06-17 07:44:58

Maybe they’ll be desperate when it’s down 50%.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-06-17 06:27:49

Davis, CA Affordability Skyrockets As Housing Prices Crater 18% YoY


Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 06:33:52

‘Long-term interest rates are negative in Switzerland and Germany. Meanwhile, rates in the US remain historically low. And central bankers around the world haven’t ruled out the possibility that rates could go even lower.’

“There are laws that prevent the medical industry from adopting experimental procedures before they become, well, less experimental,” noted CitiFX analyst Gregory Marks. “To not have those laws in place would be dangerous. Experimental procedures can produce unintended consequences and their efficacy must be rigorously tested before wide release and adoption. So as a society, we do not let doctors perform experimental procedures on everyone who walks through the hospital doors.”

“Yet for some reason, there are a lot of PhD holders from a different industry who are doing just that to entire nations and economic zones. This isn’t a theoretical petri dish. It’s the global economy.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 06:45:07

Now hold on Greg, are you saying there’s something amiss?

“Markets say the ECB is done, their box is empty,” Governing Council member Vitas Vasiliauskas, who heads Lithuania’s central bank, said in an interview in Vilnius. “But we are magic people. Each time we take something and give to the markets — a rabbit out of the hat.”

Just because they talk about themselves like a Woodstock hippie on LSD doesn’t mean they can’t be trusted with the global economy. Plus they have a guy from Goldman Sachs that looks like Dracula. What could go wrong?

Comment by Puggs
2016-06-17 08:45:11


Comment by redmondjp
2016-06-17 11:27:11

Once you go NIRP, you can never go back!

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Comment by taxpayers
2016-06-17 06:51:53

big gov is hiring 100s of scientists at $150k each to study ice samples etc
why not have the fed test a core sample for their sht and see what rate it it sells at
say $100,000,000 worth and get bids

Comment by nhtransplant
2016-06-17 09:41:49

When big government pays you $150,000 to study ice core samples, big government gets to tell you what you’re going to find in those samples. If you find anything different it’ll be the last time the government pays you $150,000 to study anything.

Comment by taxpayers
2016-06-17 10:16:01

the employees get 150K a year
“scientists” and yes, they better find a bunch a warmin or it’s back to college

Comment by Puggs
2016-06-17 07:57:38

‘What’s new in 2016 is that we’re seeing the intensity of fast sales and bidding wars even in affordable markets like Grand Rapids and Omaha, where the typical home sold within two weeks last month.’”

Fever pitch time! The contagion has spread!!

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-06-17 08:13:08

Andover, MA Affordability Improves As Housing Prices Dive 5% YoY


Comment by dandroidz
2016-06-17 16:43:53

Yet the median home price is still $645k or $262/sq ft. Anything that can commute to Boston, Woburn, or Waltham on I-95, I-93, or Rte 128 will not be affordable to people making under $100k. Not now, not in the last recession

Comment by Captain Lou Albano
2016-06-17 18:01:55

All in good time my friend.

Remember…. housing prices have a long way to fall.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-06-17 08:15:50

“The Bursting Of Silicon Valley’s Real Estate Bubble Has Now Spread To San Francisco”


Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 09:13:00

‘California West is focused on craftsmanship, stability and quality. They have been building houses for more than 20 years, creating homes and communities with design sophistication and individuality. The company is offering incentives on select single-story homes until the end of the month. California West currently has homes available in Upper Cielo in Rancho Santa Fe and at the Southern Preserve in La Costa.’

Comment by Captain Lou Albano
2016-06-17 09:25:39

But only until the end of the month? Right-O.

“Craftsmanship” too! (Never mind every last bit of material was machine cut in the factory or field.)

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-06-17 10:30:57

Where else do you cut it? On the drive to the site?

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Comment by Captain Lou Albano
2016-06-17 11:07:38


Comment by Palm Beach County
2016-06-17 08:31:26

In S. Florida buying a home beats renting after about 2 years….


Comment by Captain Lou Albano
2016-06-17 08:51:22

No math shown in the article.

Median rent- $1180/month

Mortgage payment at median price-$1575/month

Now stack on depreciation at $2.50/sq ft per year, property taxes, insurance, transaction costs, etc.

Comment by taxpayers
2016-06-17 10:17:26

I love the Zillow break even
what’s it say for the oil patch?

Comment by m2p
2016-06-17 08:36:40

Is this the sad panda everyone talks about?

Panda in every picture

Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2016-06-17 09:00:17

The sad panda is actually from a South Park episode: Sexual Harassment Panda. He goes around giving talks about sexual harassment, and incidents of harassment make him a sad panda.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-06-17 09:03:38

Is that show still on? I remember that it got a lot of attention in its first year.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-06-17 09:11:13

Almost 20 seasons, one of the cleverest shows ever!!

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Comment by MightyMike
2016-06-17 09:29:41

All I remember from the little that I watched was annoying high-pitched voices.

Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2016-06-17 09:38:17

It’s an often brilliant satire of current events.

Comment by Anonymous
2016-06-17 17:50:43

“It’s an often brilliant satire of current events.”


Comment by taxpayers
2016-06-17 09:21:08

when kyles little brother gets seduced by an older woman

Comment by nhtransplant
2016-06-17 09:44:24

I thought the sad panda was from some sort of webcam exhibit that the government decided to stop funding during the sequester.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 09:02:31

Controlling the narrative:

“Sebastian Gorka, a counterterrorism expert, said that banning the jihadist terminology is similar to “Newspeak,” the fictional language used for totalitarian control in George Orwell’s book 1984.

“This is simply outrageous from the perspective of national security,” said Gorka, the Horner chair of military theory at Marine Corps University.

“Banning words that our political elite don’t like is not only a contravention of the First Amendment, it directly endangers the lives of Americans,” he added.

“When the enemy that slaughters our citizens in Orlando, San Bernardino, and Boston calls themselves ‘jihadis’ no one, not even the president, has the right to censor that reality and give them another name.”


Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2016-06-17 09:44:35

The president has an agenda all right… to not get a bunch of rednecks all het up to go out hunting muzzies that had nothing to do with any of this. Something to do with having respect for the office, and and understanding of how much power his words have.

You’re plenty terrorized, and perfectly capable of getting your undies in a bunch without the president freaking out publicly.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-06-17 09:15:15

North Dallas, TX Affordability Surges As Housing Prices Plunge 17% YoY


Comment by taxpayers
2016-06-17 09:19:20

I guess the brexit excuse wore off
maybe the p/e of 23+ in a 0 growth market is the problem

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-06-17 09:36:35

Denver, CO Real Estate and Homes for Sale-9,184 Homes


Denver, CO Real Estate and Homes, Price Reduced -2,316 Homes


25% of Denver sellers reduced their price at least once.

Comment by Dandroidz
2016-06-17 09:59:46

Friend of mine just signed a commitment for a $380,000 house which sold for $650,000 in the peak. The tenants of course foreclosed, and did typical dumb stuff like rip up the deck and tear the pool liner. Amazing how immature people are when they cant afford to pay their commitment to the bank, those big evil banks that tricked them.

On a different note, I want to find these apartment deals with ‘riders’ allowing people to move in early, sheesh. There’s a lot of new complexes coming up north of Boston along the Rte 128 beltway…Maybe they’ll be desperate in a few months.

Comment by taxpayers
2016-06-17 10:19:25

it’s always over 20%=boring

Comment by Puggs
2016-06-17 11:27:16

Snowflakes want their cake and eat it too.

Comment by Dandroidz
2016-06-17 10:35:56

New ‘Crisis’ Americans in favor of Govt intervention

Check this mouthpiece from M/W. Many Americans are having to “sacrifice” to pay their mortgage over the last few yrs. Wow really? No cruises? No new car after 3 yrs? How pathetic!!! Growing up we never went out to eat or did vacations other than a road trip to visit family. This is just annoying and sad.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 10:43:59

Bloomberg headline posted about 10 minutes ago:

“U.S. prosecutors have abandoned their case against Angelo Mozilo, a pioneer of the risky subprime mortgages that fueled the financial crisis, after a two-year quest to bring a civil suit against him.

The Justice Department sent a letter informing Mozilo, the co-founder of Countrywide Financial Corp., that it isn’t moving ahead with any action against him, according to people familiar with the matter. That effectively ends nearly a decade of U.S. scrutiny of a man who became a face of risky lending practices and later an emblem of the government’s mixed success in holding individuals accountable.”


Comment by Apartment 401
2016-06-17 10:48:13

More Big Government spying on U.S. citizens:

“Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) on Thursday evening warned against pushing a proposal on the Senate floor to give the FBI more power to obtain email records and browsing histories without a warrant.

The provision to expand the scope of government orders, formally called national security letters, will likely be debated next week during the Senate’s work on the fiscal 2017 Commerce appropriations bill, Wyden said.”


Comment by Dandroidz
2016-06-17 10:59:00

One event and once again they go for overreach to justify security. Its textbook tyranny 101 at this point. What makes it even more of a farce is, just as prior to 9/11, the FBI was somewhat onto this guy. Just like they had intel on the hijackers training and living in the US. But here we are…instead of questioning to the efficiency and effectiveness of existing laws and agencies, we are getting diminishing privacy and liberty. Who cares, its a LGBT hate crime and the guns fault!!!!

Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2016-06-17 11:50:31

No no…it was an intricate ISIS terror jihad plot. Gayness had nothing to do with it!

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-06-17 11:46:36

Brexit, Bitcoin and Gold, Oh My!


Comment by rms
2016-06-17 12:36:45

“America’s Dying Shopping Malls Have Billions in Debt Coming Due”

“Suburban Detroit’s Lakeside Mall, with mid-range stores such as Sears, Bath & Body Works and Kay Jewelers, is one of the hundreds of retail centers across the U.S. being buffeted by the rise of e-commerce. After a $144 million loan on the property came due this month, owner General Growth Properties Inc. didn’t make the payment.”

Comment by Puggs
2016-06-17 13:10:07

Couldn’t tell you the last time I stepped into a time capsule called a “Mall”.

Comment by Anonymous
2016-06-17 17:59:24

So if these places start closing down enmasse, how will all those big retail stores and malls be re-purposed?

Within the last couple of weeks I checked out “going out of business” sales at Sports Chalet and Sports Authority here in Vegas. Even with the 20% or 30% off, I know I could still buy the stuff online for less.

Comment by rms
2016-06-17 12:39:55

“NAR survey shows how college, student debt affect home ownership”

“Broken down by generation and debt amount, the highest share of those postponing buying a home is in older Millennials, ages 26 to 35, and those with $70,000 to $100,000 in total debt.”

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-06-17 12:51:50

good fiscal conservative - Bloomberg looks West after bankrolling Philadelphia soda tax win

save me money!
illegals and Muslims with diabetes are expensive to care for in the E room.

Comment by Apartment 401
Comment by MightyMike
2016-06-17 13:39:22

Why Young Americans Are Giving Up on Capitalism

Should we really be surprised that young people are rejecting the economic status quo?

Imagine that you’re twenty years old. You were born in 1996. You were five years old on 9/11. For as long as you can remember, the United States has been at war.When you are twelve, in 2008, the global economy collapses. After years of bluster and bravado from President George W. Bush — who encouraged consumerism as a response to terror — it seems your country was weaker than you thought. In America, the bottom falls out fast. The adults who take care of you struggle to take care of themselves. Perhaps your parent loses a job. Perhaps your family loses its home.

In 2009, politicians claim the recession is over, but your hardship is not. Wages are stagnant or falling. The costs of health care, child care, and tuition continue to rise exponentially. Full-time jobs turn into contract positions while benefits are slashed. Middle-class jobs are replaced with low-paying service work. The expectations of American life your parents had when you were born — that a “long boom” will bring about unparalleled prosperity — crumble away.

Baby boomers tell you there is a way out: a college education has always been the key to a good job. But that doesn’t seem to happen anymore. The college graduates you know are drowning in student debt, working for minimum wage, or toiling in unpaid internships. Prestigious jobs are increasingly clustered in cities where rent has tripled or quadrupled in a decade’s time. You cannot afford to move, and you cannot afford to stay. Outside these cities, newly abandoned malls join long abandoned factories. You inhabit a landscape of ruin. There is nothing left for you.

Every now and then, people revolt. When you are fifteen, Occupy Wall Street captivates the nation’s attention, drawing attention to corporate greed and lost opportunity. Within a year, the movement fades, and its members do things like set up “boutique activist consultancies.” When you are seventeen, the Fight for 15 workers movement manages to make higher minimum wage a mainstream proposition, but the solutions politicians pose are incremental. No one seems to grasp the urgency of the crisis. Even President Barack Obama, a liberal Democrat — the type of politician who’s supposed to understand poverty — declares that the economy has recovered.

You wonder when the economic recovery will reach your family. You have been wondering for eight years.

In 2016, pundits declare your hardship an aberration: unemployment is a low 4.7 percent! At first you think it’s a mistake, until you realize the government counts everyone working part-time or gig jobs or making salaries below the poverty line as “employed.” That is what employment looks like in America. It is not personal fulfillment or a path to a future. It is futility — and it is forever. Survival is the new American Dream.

Is it any wonder over half of 18- to 29-year-olds in America say they do not support capitalism?

According to an April 2016 Harvard University poll, support for capitalism is at a historic low. 51 percent of Americans in this age cohort reject it, while 42 percent support it. 33 percent say they support socialism. The Harvard poll echoes a 2012 Pew survey, in which 46 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds had a positive view of capitalism, and 47 percent a negative one. While older generations had a slightly more positive take on capitalism — topping out at 52 percent for the oldest cohort, citizens over 65 — youth had a markedly different take on socialism. 49 percent viewed it positively, compared to just 13 percent of those 65 or older.


Comment by CalifoH20
2016-06-17 13:55:37

I wish we had capitalism. Too BIg Too Fail is not it.

Comment by Bill DaWahl
2016-06-17 14:47:58


Comment by Anonymous
2016-06-17 18:05:29

Exactly. I was thinking as I read the article, we haven’t had actual free-market capitalism here for decades. That would entail risk of loss, and there are too many people and entities being sheltered from loss.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-06-17 18:56:10

Maybe we’ve never had capitalism as you’re thinking of it.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-06-17 16:35:47

“No one could have seen it coming.”


Comment by Ben Jones
2016-06-17 17:01:21

There are many reason to think it might be worse this go round. Several global bubbles leaking air, too much happening at the same time. Take the bay area in California; is it a coincidence that their tech and housing booms are looking shaky together? The commodity countries; Nigeria, Kenya, Dubai, Brazil, Australia to mention a few; all with real estate bubbles and either burst or on the way. The related currency problems; not many south Americans buying in Miami. New York has seen foreign cash dry up even for art work. London. The most expensive real estate in the world, Hong Kong, is falling fast. Retail rents have been cut 80% in some cases and they can’t fill it because teh main landers have stopped coming to shop. House prices down too, but that’s just as much from government action.

Speaking of that; now Canadian bankers are begging the government to pop the bubble! That’s a complete turnaround. Similar to Australia; it can’t be denied anymore, and like Greenspan, the deniers will lead the charge to stop the bubble. Amazing and spooky at the same time.

‘TD Bank expressed similar concerns, warning that these housing markets are “ripe for a correction” and that “the party will come to an end”

Comment by phony scandals
2016-06-17 18:18:25

The author Elena Holodny seems to possess many of the qualities coveted by the superficial male.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-06-17 21:10:17

MLS #5296807 bought in 2013 for $325,000 in my old zip code 85044 and now for sale at $308,000.

Finally maybe prices of these places are going in the right direction.

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