It’s Astounding How Universal It Seems To Be
Insider Louisville reports from Kentucky. “Ok, pop quiz! (applause) First question: In what month were Louisville homes selling the fastest? You guessed it, May! Second: What month had the lowest absorption rate in Louisville real estate history? Yes, again it’s May! How about a trick question? Since January 2006, which month had the highest median home sale price? Drat! You guys are smart. The answer here is also May 2016. Can you believe this stuff? If you walk up to the next real estate professional you see and ask them, ‘How’s the market?’ you’ll likely be met with a pregnant pause while they gather their thoughts, stridently searching for words to accurately describe what in the world is going on right now.”
The Seattle Times in Washington. “The building boom sweeping downtown Seattle is hard to miss, between the jostling cranes, giant holes in the ground and construction crews closing down streets. But new data shows just how intense things have gotten — and how much more is still yet to come. There are currently 65 major buildings under construction across downtown, South Lake Union and surrounding neighborhoods, more than at any point since the figures were first tracked in 2005, the Downtown Seattle Association said in a new report. The previous midyear high was 50 buildings under construction in 2014 and 49 last year.”
“And the frenzy isn’t set to end anytime soon: Most of the structures will take until next year to finish, and there are dozens more in the pipeline set to start in the next year and a half. About two-thirds of the project are residential. The number of housing units under construction downtown has also hit a new high since 2005. ‘There is a ton of development on all fronts,’ said Don Blakeney, a vice president for the downtown group.”
The Washington Post on Virginia. “Arlington County, which last year approved construction of a record 3,747 rental apartments or condominiums, has given the green light to build about 1,900 more so far in 2016. David Howell, executive vice president and chief information officer at the real estate firm McEnearney Associates, said he sees no indication that residential units are being overbuilt in Arlington and other close-in communities. ‘I don’t think we’re there yet,’ he said. ‘Millennials are slowly coming out of mom and dad’s basement, and the first rental or purchase tends to be in these apartments and condos. There’s an enormous pent-up demand.’”
The Charlotte Business Journal in North Carolina. “One Charlotte City Council member stopped just short of mentioning an apartment moratorium during the public hearing portion of Monday’s zoning meeting. Though pausing new multifamily development in Charlotte wasn’t the focus of her comments, LaWana Mayfield, who represents District 3, said council and city staff needed to more closely examine the repercussions of proposed multifamily projects.”
“Tens of thousands of apartments are being developed or planned across Charlotte. But while demand is high, with low vacancy and high absorption rates, many have wondered when the boom will end. ‘If you notice where this project is located, it’s almost diagonal from Brookhill,’ Mayfield said. ‘You have a community that has been predominately lower-income (and) minority.’ In the wake of new development, she added, lower-income residents are ‘continuously being displaced.’”
The Wall Street Journal. “An annual report from Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, the State of the Nation’s Housing, reveals that even while the housing market begins to recover and regain solid footing, large parts of the country are being left behind. Middle-income families are increasingly losing ground, facing housing affordability challenges that were once largely limited to the poor. One reason middle-income renters are struggling to find an affordable apartment: Developers are catering to a growing number of affluent renters.”
“While newer rentals have always commanded higher prices than older units, the premium for new apartments has risen sharply, the Harvard report finds. The median asking rent for new apartments built in 2015 was $1,381 per month, more than 70% higher than the overall median rent. The rent premium for new studio apartments was even more stark, at 90% above the overall price for a studio. ‘It is just astounding how universal it seems to be’ that the majority of new rental apartments in cities across the country are at the high end, said Chris Herbert, managing director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies.”
From National Real Estate Investor. “Tens of thousands of new apartments are now opening in central business districts (CBDs) around the country. Some will have a hard time finding residents. ‘There’s a lot of angst about downtown apartments right now,’ says Jay Parsons, vice president for apartment market intelligence firm MPF Research. ‘The real challenges will come in the next 12-18 months as supply further accelerates in downtown sub-markets across the country. Anyone who subscribes to the idea that downtown sub-markets offer a higher barrier to entry is holding onto outdated conventional wisdom. It hasn’t been true for a decade.’”
“In downtown sub-markets, the number of apartments is growing at a furious rate of 5.0 percent a year, on average. ‘That’s a huge number—particularly given that downtown areas are, by definition, smaller and more confined areas,’ says Parsons. ‘That means you have new apartments within walking distance of a ton more new apartments.’”
“Prices for apartment properties in CBDs have risen much more strongly than prices for suburban apartments, which helps explain why developers are eager to build downtown. Prices for downtown properties rose nearly 450.0 percent from 2000 to the end of 2015.”
“Prices also rose for suburban properties, but not nearly as much. And the more suburban locations resembled a downtown, the more price growth they experienced. Prices rose nearly 300.0 percent for suburban apartments in ‘highly walkable’ areas, close to 250.0 percent in ’somewhat walkable’ areas and just 200.0 percent in ‘car-dependent’ suburban areas, according to MPF.”
The Miami Herald in Florida. “It’s a trend that can’t last forever: Home sales in Miami-Dade County are falling, but prices are still going up. Total existing home sales slid to 2,435 in May, down 10.4 percent annually, according to data from the Miami Association of Realtors. Single-family homes — down 7.2 percent — fared better than condos, which fell 13.3 percent. (Existing condos are competing with a glut of new luxury construction.)”
“That makes sense, experts say. For now. ‘Historically, even after there has been a noticeable change in the market, home prices continue to increase for six to 12 months despite the shift in supply and demand,’ said Jack McCabe, a real estate analyst. ‘If you see a big change in the real estate market, it takes a long time to sell. It’s not like stocks or commodities.’”
“Sellers are already starting to respond, especially in the luxury market, said Ron Shuffield, president of EWM Realty International. About 37 percent of Miami-Dade listings over a million dollars have seen price reductions since Jan. 1, according to research conducted by EWM. ‘We’re seeing a lot of people reducing prices as inventory goes up and sales go down,’ Shuffield said.
Did you know that there are “walkable” neighborhoods that aren’t walkable because hipsters live there, but because many people who live there can’t afford cars?
Lol. This is so true. Or the city isn’t very biker friendly.
Try walking around San Francisco, it’s deceptively big. You think, oh this restaurant is only a few blocks that way, then you’re going “God this is taking forever”.
I will say Boston is a very walkable city. You can go from the Seaport to the center of the city and on to the “Back Bay” region in 25 mins on foot at a nice clip.
Funnest part about walking anywhere in SF: The hills are often so steep the effort required to go a few blocks is deceptively high.
Dont forget…always have a jacket and wear all black to blend in.
I noticed that to. On a trip to Boston, my buddies and I were walking around when we realized.. oh wait… that’s all there is! We ran out of city!!!
“Anything is walking distance if you have the time.”
“Some 26 percent of U.S. renters paid at least half their income to landlords in 2014, up from 20 percent in 2001, according to the State of the Nation’s Housing report, published on Wednesday by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.
On the other hand, the number of homeowners who are severely cost-burdened by mortgage payments (paying 50 percent or more of their income) or moderately cost-burdened (paying 30 percent to 50 percent) actually fell from 2013 to 2014, the JCHS study said. And while the poorest renters are more likely to find themselves in dire straits, data compiled this month by Greg Willett, chief economist at property management software maker RealPage, suggests that market-rate renters are keeping up with those rising rents, and are thus able to put some money away for that eventual first purchase.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-22/renters-are-making-more-and-landlords-get-it-all
Rising rent as a percentage of renter’s income does not indicate that people are making more or saving more for a downpayment. The opposite is more probable.
“About 37 percent of Miami-Dade listings over a million dollars have seen price reductions since Jan. 1, according to research conducted by EWM.”
How long does it usually take for this price decline to filter down to the ‘under a million homes’? Months? Years? Any information from the last bubble on South Florida? Or where can it be found? Charts? Graphs? etc.
There’s a new build complex in Costa Mesa that has slashed prices ~$100k from mid $700s to mid $600s.
So it’s happening, but no one is talking about it.
I wonder what their original underwriting was…they probably made the investment a couple of years ago, when prices were much lower.
Did they underwrite selling in the mid-$700’s? Or something lower?
Depending on the answer, it could be the difference (from an investment standpoint) between going from a homerun to a solid single and going from a solid single to a strike-out.
Who cares. Prices fell $100k. With alot more to fall.
I keep wanting to “like” people’s posts.
Me too.
Palm Beach,
Are we talking about a 2/2, a 3/2, a 3/3…..condo, house….on the water… not on the water….east of A1A… east of I-95….west of I-95 ….endless variables with one shared answer….over a long period o time [Translation: Tax seasons] everything reverts back the MEAN.
AND…..
folks buy on the way up and buy on the way down.
Then there is the small cultural issue of the Chinese in British Columbia. Will they ever sell and move on? I think about that every night when I walk the streets in my neighborhood with million dollar mansions that have NOT been lived in for twenty years. The owners live elsewhere and never know when they just might have to pack up one night and leave. The lawns are impeccable. The pools maintained. Mighty fine I tell ya.
I, however, have my money on fracking and severe droughts. Those activities will force people to migrate. When you lose your water you just might overshoot the MEAN on the way down.
Do you think the people on Jupiter Island give a fuck?
“‘Millennials are slowly coming out of mom and dad’s basement, and the first rental or purchase tends to be in these apartments and condos. There’s an enormous pent-up demand.’”
First of all, this guy needs to check his smug. Get out of mom’s basements? Aren’t the oldest “millenials” 34? Yes a large amount of 20-26 yr olds are stuck at home saddled with $50,000+ student loan debt (thanks Uncle Sam for guaranteeing the 1000% rise in tuition), and not many blue collar or production jobs to get into. A lot of friends and people my age have jobs and don’t live at home, thanks. Some of them “own” houses and pay their mortgage no problem. This mass generalization about the “millennial” gen being some helpless little kids who only know how to take selfies and live off mom and dad is such hogwash.
Second, pent up demand? In this ridiculous Govt sanctioned market? Ha. Yeah a lot of 20 somethings and heck even 40 somethings just sitting on the sideline with $60,000-$80,000 in their savings to dump right into a down payment on a cheaply built condo/apartment. Yeah right. Meanwhile some 60% of Americans have no retirement savings, or the cash to respond to a significant financial emergency. Yep it’s only the millenials who are helpless in this magnificent booming Fed controlled FIRE economy. Strange that a lot of the engineers at my company are around 26-30…
To all the Britons out there, Happy Brexit Day! Do the right thing and vote “Leave”! The world is watching.
The Netherlands is probably next. Did you see that 90+% of all Dutch favor a referendum on leaving the EU?
The push is on worldwide to halt globalism and elitism.
While 95% of ‘Muricans meekly bent over for their oligarch overlords in ‘08 and ‘12 by voting for Obama or the even worse Establishment GOP “alternatives,” it is encouraging to see the winds of change finally starting to blow in Europe.
Pound Tumbles Most Since 2009 on EU Voting in Northeast England
Lucy Meakin and Lukanyo Mnyanda
June 23, 2016 — 4:23 PM PDT
Updated on June 23, 2016 — 4:46 PM PDT
Sterling weakens against all of its major counterparts
Currency earlier rose above $1.50 on bets ‘Remain’ would win
The pound dropped the most since 2009 after results from Britain’s European Union referendum in two industrial cities in northeast England showed greater support for leaving the bloc than academics had forecast.
Britain’s currency tumbled against all of its major counterparts after 61 percent voted in favor of an exit in Sunderland. The pro-EU camp won 51 percent of the vote in Newcastle, smaller than the forecast 12 percentage-point lead.
Price swings in the currency accelerated as the first results from the referendum filtered through, with sterling trading in a range of more than 4 percent. It earlier climbed above $1.50 for the first time since December after a nationwide YouGov Plc survey conducted on the day of the vote showed a 52 percent share for the status quo, and also sank as much as 3.9 percent.
…
The next 5 hours will be like a bunch of 6 year olds playing soccer.
Everytime a new result comes in, everyone will talk about it like it makes the difference in the overall vote.
One interesting statistic that I saw was the voter turnout of like 83%…holy cow, that’s high relative to what we are used to in the US.
AND they have to go out and about in an diluvian flood in order to vote!
How awesome!
Thunderstorms and flash floods caused chaos across Britain in the final hours of the EU Referendum, as commuters left stranded in London
By Helena Horton, Lydia Willgress and Harry Yorke
23 June 2016 • 10:03pm
- Commuters were left stuck at Waterloo as rain caused chaos, forcing the station to close temporarily due to overcrowding
- Thousands of people are believed to have been unable to get back to vote at polling stations before 10pm
- Vote affected by flooding and bad weather
- Elsewhere in Hertfordshire, Essex and Kent, cars left stranded as roads were flooded
- Commuters earlier stuck on ’sweatbox trains’ for hours
- Travel to Glastonbury affected as festival-goers trudged through thick mud
- River Rom bursts its banks
…
“Sellers are already starting to respond, especially in the luxury market, said Ron Shuffield, president of EWM Realty International. About 37 percent of Miami-Dade listings over a million dollars have seen price reductions since Jan. 1, according to research conducted by EWM. ‘We’re seeing a lot of people reducing prices as inventory goes up and sales go down,’ Shuffield said.”
Ron Shuffield! As I live and breathe! We must be on the cusp of the RE crash. Does anyone have his infamous quote from RE Bubble 1.0? If you do, please post. It’s a classic.
OK, found it myself. Here’s Ronniebaby back in 2005:
“Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors says that “South Florida is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past.” He predicts that a limited supply of land coupled with demand from baby boomers and foreigners will prolong the boom indefinitely.”
Classic bubble 1.0 quote.
sweet- the older 1988 bubble was
1988 boston popped
then 1989 NYC
and DC in 1990
I’m guessing things are faster now w the interweb an all
2017 SF
2018 LA
2019 SD?
LOL, that is a classic! Thx!
The Limited Supply of Land is going to get even more limited as sea level rise progresses over the next 50 years and flat Florida is inundated. Have you seen the news articles about periodic flooding in Miami? It’s already happening.
You mean to tell me it floods in Miami? SHOCKER!
I’ve lived in Florida since 1980. Guess what? It ALWAYS floods in low lying areas after a heavy rain. Does it flood in areas where it didn’t used to before? You betcha! Why? Because of the freakin’ over-development and building, combined with poor planning.
I’ll tell you what’s flooding the state: idiot economic refugees looking for their little piece of the pie, who think it’s all sunshine and skittles here.
Then again, Rt 41 over in Apollo Beach, which used to flood if there was a strong moon tide, no longer gets flooded. Why? Because they built this fancy development called “MiraBay” by filling in the mangrove swamp, and it acts as a buffer between Rt 41 and Tampa Bay. Plus they built this huge-ass berm to block themselves off from all the riff-raff traffic on Rt 41. Instead, the residents at MiraBay are moaning because their seawalls are cracking and dissolving. Well, that’s the bad news. Good news is, I can travel Rt 41 during moon tide and it’s dry as a bone. Thanks, MiraBay!
Mkay!
I do appreciate the humor of this board!
“Developers are catering to a growing number of affluent renters.”
The mega rich renting/leasing to the rich, all financed by elite rich?Sounds unsustainable.
It’s more of a theory they’ve conjured up after the fact to justify the bubble. From yesterday:
‘You can lean on the millennial argument…you can spin a story of how demand will absorb all of this,’ said Dennis McGill, director of research at Zelman & Associates. ‘Demand is not going to change by 50% in a year.’
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9669
These cover stories are common for bubble deniers; “houses are a new asset class, safe deposit box in the sky” kinda stuff. New paradigm usually. Every things changed!
I’ve gone over this a lot, but in case anyone hasn’t seen it, what’s driving this isn’t millennials or affluent renters. It’s a flood of pension/insurance cash looking for yield and the CRE developers are taking it. This has been going on since 2010; they’ve bid the land up up and the only thing that pencils out is luxury. So they invented the story.
‘The median asking rent for new apartments built in 2015 was $1,381 per month, more than 70% higher than the overall median rent. The rent premium for new studio apartments was even more stark, at 90% above the overall price for a studio. ‘It is just astounding how universal it seems to be’ that the majority of new rental apartments in cities across the country are at the high end’
It’s not astounding Harvard, see above.
From the NREI article:
‘The percentage of vacant apartments in downtown sub-markets averaged 6.3 percent in the first quarter, according to data firm Reis Inc. That’s up from 5.6 percent a year ago. “The vacancy rate for class-A, urban apartments is up a little over the last six months,” says John Sebree director of Marcus & Millichap’s national multi housing group. “We’ve heard a little about some concessions being given.”
‘Barriers to development have slowed new construction down, but it hasn’t stopped apartment projects. “Downtown development requires more time and more money, but there has been no shortage of capital sources willing to provide both,” says Parsons.’
‘The outlook for the next year will largely depend on whether these urban economies will be strong enough to attract new renters. “Job growth is what everyone is going to be monitoring,” says Sebree.’
Pensions, insurance companies:
‘there has been no shortage of capital sources’
Building for something that isn’t there yet:
‘Job growth is what everyone is going to be monitoring’
And not just job growth; high wage job growth. And like Miami Beach, the fall back is “oh, a bunch of these won’t get built.” Well they did and are. Here’s one from Phoenix:
‘A lot of construction in downtown and central Phoenix is focused on housing. New apartments featuring the latest amenities often come at a price that some longtime residents and those who work in the area cannot afford.’
“The average household incomes that we see within a five-mile radius can support the housing options that we have within a five-mile radius or 15-minute commute,” Research Assistant Joseph MacEwan told members of the Neighborhoods, Housing and Development Subcommittee during Tuesday’s meeting.’
‘That was news to Kristen Fisher. “I’ve looked downtown and looked at a lot of places and couldn’t afford any of them,” she said. Fisher falls under the city’s housing category labeled ‘workforce’. She has a full-time job at a downtown deli, but can’t afford the two-bedroom market average of $1,200 a month.’
‘The single mother isn’t even sure she could afford the average ‘workforce’ rent of $733. “I could, but then I wouldn’t be able to afford utilities,” Fisher said.’
‘Traditionally, as market rates projects are built, others will lower rent to attract new residents like Kristen Fisher. That hasn’t happened, but Economic Development Director Chris Mackay is hopeful. “We may start to see some of that older product reset itself,” she told the subcommittee.’
‘The single mother isn’t even sure she could afford the average ‘workforce’ rent of $733. “I could, but then I wouldn’t be able to afford utilities,” Fisher said.’
The average SRP bill for power is probably $733 a month. What a rip that uility is.
Man $1400/mo median rent. Even for a young white collar professional that can easily be 40% of after-tax income.
You should see the premium for these Mill-apartments. The reconstructed/rehabbed mills in the Northeast become expensive apartments with exposed brick, iron pipes, SS appliances and go for $1600-$2200 depending on models/location/etc. To think they used to be home to productive companies and wage earning workers and now the basements are filed with craft beer bars and sandwich shops.
I saw a farm house around the corner with a sign for 2750 / month. LMFAO
I will live in a tent before I pay those shysters that kind of cash.
Still doesn’t beat the wooden box in the Bay area living room for $800/mo, or w/e obscene rent it was.
‘Fort Mill, S.C., is going to get a new flavor of apartment soon: “Farmhouse chic.”
‘That’s how national developer Miller-Valentine Group describes its new venture, Beckett Farms. Located near Gold Hill Road and Interstate 77, the development will cover 33 acres and include 280 one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments. Construction has started, and the first apartments at the new development are expected to be complete in May 2017.’
“We’re thrilled to bring upscale apartment living to Fort Mill, with a farmhouse chic aesthetic,” said Charles Rulick, vice president of conventional multi-family development for Miller-Valentine, in a statement. “From the architecture to the interior design to the amenities, we wanted to thoughtfully create an apartment community that blended the pastoral setting of Fort Mill with the latest in luxury urban design.”
‘The apartments at Beckett Farms will include balconies, “farmhouse-inspired fixtures and lighting,” washers and dryers, and kitchens with stainless steel appliances and granite countertops. Amenities will include a saltwater pool, a clubhouse, outdoor grills, a gym and pocket parks throughout the property.’
Farmhouse chic?! WTF. Live like a farmer in a rustic setting without having to do any real farm work, woohoo!
I always laughed when people gauk and praise the industrial chic look. To me it felt like I was at work on ships in a shipyard setting, but to other people it was hip and cool. Barf.
Somehow in South Carolina they will still ask for $2,000/mo for these “chic” apartments.
‘The apartments at Beckett Farms will include balconies, “farmhouse-inspired fixtures and lighting,” washers and dryers, and kitchens with stainless steel appliances and granite countertops. Amenities will include a saltwater pool, a clubhouse, outdoor grills, a gym and pocket parks throughout the property.’
And Chickens ? maybe some cows ?
And each will include a DebtDonkey.
Lol, no if they had actual farm on premise people wouldn’t feel luxury enough. “Ew those chickens like totally smell”.
It’d be something if they actually had crops on property to harvest and sell in a boutique sammich shop with gluten free vegan smoothies.
retirement communities are doing just that — putting houses right on the farm, same way you have houses on the edge of a golf course. And yup, residents get to participate and partake of the clean livin’. And When it comes to craft beers and slow food and artisan bread, (and showing off on f-book) retirees are worse than Millenials.
Hey donk
Just like this…
http://www.sfgate.com/homeandgarden/article/NousDecor-s-Heather-Gillette-shares-barn-with-5549306.php
All you need is to be an early employee of YouTube.
My retired neighbor (his wife is still working) buys old furniture at the Goodwill Clearance Center, often for as little as $1. Then he fixes it, does it up in the “shabby chic” style, and sells each piece for $50-$75-$100 or more.
It’s really just applied Econ 101. With a high fixed cost (land) you need a high variable revenue stream (rent) for the investment to pencil out.
No builder buys land first, and then figures out the product type they are going to build.
It is an iterative process. But the bottom line is that on the day the investor puts in the equity, and the bank provides the debt to acquire the land, builders have their base business plan in place.
And when the market is competitive for land that is slated for multi-family development (because no one is going to buy again, everyone is going to rent, everyone likes apartments, institutions are looking for steady yield, etc.), the winning bidders are those who can afford to pay the most…and that is luxury.
The problem is going to be with the depth of demand, as I noted yesterday. I think demand at high prices won’t be nearly as great as the number of units being built.
Nonsense.
Contractors buy land all the time and hold it until they can’t anymore.
‘It is just astounding how universal it seems to be’ that the majority of new rental apartments in cities across the country are at the high end’
It worked with Coffee why not apartments ? Can’t invent anything new so just jack up the price of the old stuff and Market it as “New”
This doesn’t raise our standard of living like a new invention or technology but I guess its a lot easier to “invent”
“So they invented the story.”
And they’re just good enough at these inventions to get it to pass the tacit scrutiny the average person can muster which isn’t much. Think back to 2000-2006. The ’scooping up homes’ and ‘housing is an investment’ were the single sentence narratives. We all know the end result of that charade.
The correction just starting to unfold dwarfs anything imagined in 2008.
pension cash was planning on 7-8%
now getting 3?
LMFAO with inflation those yields are negative!
Most people wont get a pension. They will be lucky to get a SS check.
Shoot on I’m banking on total collapse of my 401k or outright theft in the next 20-30 yrs.
Sad but probably true.
Shoot on I’m banking on total collapse of my 401k or outright theft in the next 20-30 yrs.”
Means testing - you saved and sacrificed ? No Government cheese for you its for the guy with the 40K pickup truck and European vacation every year until he got laid off.
I think means testing will be the best we can hope for. I’m expecting my social security to be means-tested way down, and my Medicare cost to go way up.
There is an outside chance that they seize other retirement assets, which is why I’m putting a lot away outside retirement.
Shoot on I’m banking on total collapse of my 401k or outright theft in the next 20-30 yrs.”
With Yellen the Felon intent on printing away all government and Wall Street debts, your 401(k) might buy you a can of beans each month.
It’s a flood of pension/insurance cash looking for yield
I was talking with a teacher a few weeks ago. He was VERY confident that PERA (the Colorado public pension plan) could earn 8% returns into infinity.
Yet even if it could get long term high yields, PERA is underfunded and is in trouble.
There’s gonna be a lot of unhappy cops, firefighters, teachers and other state (but not muni) employees down the road in the Centennial state. I mention muni workers, because they usually don’t get pensions, especially in the suburban munis. In my little burg only teachers, firefighters and cops get pensions. All other local muni workers have to settle for a 403b plan.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio
8% a year Ok maybe ?? look how REITS improve a return at least in the past .. That means jacking up risk.
They have some canned portfolios you can test as well coffee house , lazy , etc.
This backtest tool is fun if you’re into this kind of analysis.
Now I need the future returns time machine tool
It’s going to be a thing of beauty with all the public unions who aided and abetted Democrat corruption and malgovernance get to retirement age and discover they, do, got bilked out of their retirements by these Democrat grifters.
The county will just Re side your taxes to pay gov pensions
See IL for results
That sounds sensible. Pensions are just another expense. Someone ought to investigate whether pension funds make sense in the first place.
It’s a flood of pension/insurance cash looking for yield ”
That’s not going to end well
“It’s a flood of pension/insurance cash looking for yield and the CRE developers are taking it.”
That’s fine as long as taxpayers don’t have to ameliorate their losses.
It’s always been Storyland at Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, with a dearth of factual information to back up the stories they like to tell.
“‘It is just astounding how universal it seems to be’ that the majority of new rental apartments in cities across the country are at the high end, said Chris Herbert, managing director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies.”
There’s just so many unhoused rich people out looking for a roof to put over their heads! These folks were spinning similar yarns circa 2006.
How about the famous NAR yarn in early 2005? “September 11th made everyone want to own something tangible.”
These stories are meant to wear down doubters too. Like the “renters have a fear of commitment” complete with psychologists rubbing their chins and reflecting on mommy and daddy stuff.
I saw an article yesterday from yellen sayn it wasnt the FED’s job to prop up the stock market. I was browsing the comments and the cynical comments were just classic. The article was on cnbc.
They do a great job of making you pay more for stuff.
Then why did they take on propping up the housing market and allocating wealth to rich homeowners and banks and away from poor renters and young people?
“complete with psychologists rubbing their chins and reflecting on mommy and daddy stuff.”
LMAO
Yep, the narrative.
“The Denver Police Department plans to increase its panhandling enforcement on the 16th Street Mall after receiving reports of aggressive panhandling by groups known as “urban travelers.”
The increased enforcement comes as the police department and Downtown Denver Partnership prepare to roll out a new security plan that includes the hiring of a security manager, said Tami Door, the downtown partnership’s president.
Concerns about aggressive panhandling and mall security increased after Fox 31 Denver broadcast a video of panhandlers harassing and assaulting a downtown office worker. Officials said the incident is concerning.
Denver police spokesman Sonny Jackson described the aggressive panhandlers as “urban travelers,” young, homeless people who travel to different urban areas around the country.”
http://www.denverpost.com/2016/06/22/denver-police-plan-to-increase-panhandling-enforcement-on-16th-street-mall/
In the 1990s and 2000s they were called gutter punks.
George Carlin explains this transition of language.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkhUivqzWv0
“Political Correctness is tyranny with manners.”
yes, well, unfortunately he bit the biscuit before he got a gander at the protesters at some of the Trump rallies.
George Carlin also eloquently explained why if you vote, you have no right to complain.
In GD1, hobos…
Trailers for sale or rent
Rooms to let 50 cents…
They are heroin addicts, plain and simple. Or as they say on the ‘hood drug documentaries: “hair-ron”.
I see idiots giving these people money at every intersection. It is just stupid; every dollar you give these poor people goes straight to the drug dealers.
I saw the video, and what struck me is what a pansy that “office worker” was. He didn’t take a single swing at the bums, no doubt because he doesn’t know how to do it, and neither did the bums who pretty much just tugged at his clothes. It occurred to me that any dude with some martial arts training could have easily cleaned their clocks.
Step through into horse stance, right foot forward, right hand side punch and hiyaaaaaaa.
Forget the stances (especially horse stance, who uses that?), just punch ‘em in the face. After you flatten the first bum or give him a bloody nose the rest will turn tail and run.
Right on. When the chips are down, “Just punch” is the best solution. No talking, no warning.
I love Iron Mike’s quote “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
Not sure I’d want to fight people whose blood is awash with HIV, Hep C, and various other nasty bugs.
If they’re hitting you; you might as well hit back.
this is the way to go: http://www.latimes.com/local/la-me-homeless-meters-20140914-story.html
Fourteen repurposed parking meters across the city will collect change for nonprofits that serve the homeless. The meters, painted bright orange and decorated with smiley faces and inspirational sayings, are supposed to raise awareness for the city’s homeless programs.
LMAO.
How will “repurposed” parking meters raise the social consciousness of the typical San Franciscan?
And here I thought San Franciscans were the most socially aware denizens of the entire of planet Earth.
Or so they tell me.
tell the bums u put the money in the meter, they can head to the soup kitchen for food.
it works in my town, less begging
Those public servants on Segway scooters need a chrome face mask and jousting lance; the future is now.
“Urban travelers” = Bernie FSA supporters.
Why travel around the country? Just go to Illinois.
It’s what all the bums and bumettes from Wisconsin and Indiana do.
Illinois has excellent bennies for bums. “Bennies for Bums.” Rather catchy, isn’t it?
That said, winters aren’t too cold in far southern Illinois, either. Try Cairo.
“A study by Apartment List found that 4 out of 5 SF millennials say they’ve given up on buying a house in the city because, of course, it’s completely unaffordable. About 76-percent of those surveyed did say they wanted to purchase a home someday, however, which means many millennials will be looking for residences elsewhere.
The most depressing part of the survey is the gap between expectations and reality. SF millennials estimated they’d need about $70,000 for a down payment. In reality, they need over $142,000. So if they thought they couldn’t afford a house then, they definitely realize they can’t afford one now.
Apartment List estimates it will take an average Bay Area millennial 20.5 years to save enough money for a down payment. By comparison, they estimate it will take 11.4 years in Denver, 8.2 years in Seattle and seven years in Boston.”
http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/most-SF-millennials-given-up-on-home-ownership-7259865.php
‘it will take an average Bay Area millennial 20.5 years to save enough money for a down payment’
As luck would have it, that’s about how long it will take to sell or rent the 62,000 units in the pipeline there. I’m sure everyone involved can ride out 20 years of vacancy.
I witnessed the condo/apt boom being constructed in the SoMA (south of market st) and Mission Beach region (south of ATT park). Quite a few 10 story buildings/complexes going up. At the time (2013) they were starting at $850,000 - $ 1 mill, and if there were rentals I would guesstimate $4000/mo.
Funny that even in the Bay, the tech companies pays ’some’ employees well, but even run of the mill programmers might only be earning $100,000, which of course is peanuts in the Bay Area.
I went to san fran a few years ago. Homeless pissing all over the place. It wasn’t the greatest scene. Haven’t been back.
Sounds like Paris.
Lotsa people there peeing in the bushes outside Notre Dame.
Luckily I was only there for a temporary project for 2 months on 2 different occasions, 2012 and 2013. But yes, homeless EVERYWHERE. And they are not shy about harassing people, peeing anywhere, pooping. Ugh just thinking about coming out of a BART station anywhere on Market St makes me shudder.
My wife commuted to law school via CalTrain, and walked through the Tenderloin to school from the train station. She would recount days when she was late, and had to pull the OJ running to the train, jumping over legs and human excrement.
Needless to say, she does not miss those days.
Repost of a classic:
“When work crews pulled open a broken BART escalator at San Francisco’s Civic Center Station last month, they found so much human excrement in its works they had to call a hazardous-materials team.
While the sheer volume of human waste was surprising, its presence was not. Once the stations close, the bottom of BART station stairwells in downtown San Francisco are often a prime location for homeless people to camp for the night or find a private place to relieve themselves.
All those biological excretions can gum up the wheels and gears of BART’s escalators, shutting them down for long periods of extended repairs, increasing station cleaning costs and creating an unpleasant aroma for morning commuters.”
http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Human-waste-shuts-down-BART-escalators-3735981.php
I’ve actually seena graphical map a software engineer developed to show poop around SF, lol. It was definitely concentrated all along the BART/MUNI stations on Market St. So disgusting.
“software engineer” lol
There must be a hundred million suburbanites all over America who have stories like these about the brief periods that they spent in cities. The only solution for them is to just stay away from all cities.
What more do you need than a couple months to get acquainted with city life? Not using your car, utilizing public transit, grocery shopping at a limited # of shops, eating out, attending random events throughout the city.
You can get the lay of the land pretty quickly if you’re motivated and make some local friends…
Was I complaining about city life? No. Stating fact. SF is home to a lot of angry hostile homeless who defecate everywhere. Yes even near the entryways to the Million $$ luxury condos with doormen.
When I see feces in the street or on sidewalks, I usually assume that it came out of a dog.
But it’s good your work involves so much travel. You can give us all a poop report wherever you go.
“I’ve actually seena graphical map a software engineer developed to show poop around SF, lol.”
Hehe… gotta add that to the esri arcgis database.
I was just in SF for a couple of days. What are the new high-rises going up downtown)? Are they apartment buildings or more office space?
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v408/csskalet/2016%20Uploads/IMG_20160610_154100_zpswt6xezxi.jpg
Both. Salesforce is building a HUGE tower.
However, my understanding is that the bulk of the towers are residential (rental and for-sale).
Unsure. I know a HUGE Tower at the base of the Bay Bridge at Rincon Hill was going up in 2013. It was going to become one of the tallest buildings in SF. It was luxury condos.
“…the bulk of the towers are residential…”
Soylent Green.
In other San Francisco news some dot commers are evicting a tenant with 3 days notice (for bogus “safety” issues) for living in an illegal inlaw unit in a house they just purchased for $1.3M. FWIW there are LOTS of these units throughout S.F. and have been for many years, probably in about 25% of houses in some neighborhoods, lived in one myself for a year or so.
http://www.modernluxury.com/san-francisco/story/tech-workers-evict-kindergarten-teacher-mission-apartment-using-appliances
Wow. “Out of compliance”. I’m sure if inspectors looked hard enough at 75% of the SF houses/apartments they would find violations and building code problems, just as any old city buildings across the US. Once the new landlords win, they’ll tidy the place up and place it on the market for $3,000 a month or more.
Palm Beach County home sales take hit during May, condos hold steady: report
Home prices continue to rise despite sales slowdown
June 22, 2016 02:15PM
By Sean Stewart-Muniz
It’s been a rough spring for residential real estate in Palm Beach County, and May proved to be no different.
Single-family home sales in the county have fallen four months in a row now, according to a new report from the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches, while condo deals showed some improvement during May despite a similarly beleaguered track record.
A total of 1,648 single-family homes were sold last month at a median price of $311,000 per property, according to the report. Sales were down 4.8 percent from the 1,731 deals done in May 2015, but median prices still rose by $16,000, or about 5.4 percent.
Meanwhile, sales for condos and townhouses picked up slightly year-over-year. The market saw 1,275 unit sales last month, up 1.9 percent from 1,251 sales the year before. Prices also spiked 9.6 percent from $150,950 per unit to $165,500.
As the association’s figures show, sales for both sectors have fallen consistently since January, all while housing prices for Palm Beach County — and South Florida in general — continue their steady climb.
At the same time, a bevy of new housing inventory is hitting the market. May saw 2,224 single-family homes hit the market in Palm Beach County, a rate that jumped 11.6 percent compared to May 2015.
Condo listings actually decreased 2.2 percent to 1,580 properties, although they surged by 11.9 percent just a month before.
Though the overall figures paint a gloomy picture, there are still bright spots to report: home and condo sales between $300,000 and $600,000 grew considerably year-over-year, indicating that the luxury and distressed portions of the market — both of which saw declines — are to blame for an overall slowdown.
http://therealdeal.com/miami/2016/06/22/palm-beach-county-home-sales-take-hit-during-may-condos-hold-steady-report/
“As Vancouver-area home prices continue to surge, “housing affordability is being crushed” there and “will likely deteriorate” further, RBC Economics says in a new report.
As it stands, ownership costs for detached homes run well above typical earnings, with costs equal to 119.5 per cent of median household income in the first quarter, RBC finds. That’s nearly 10 percentage points higher than the previous quarter.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/rbc-housing-affordability-is-being-crushed-in-vancouver/article30554364/
“The housing market isn’t overheated, but it is resilient as home prices continue to rise across South Florida.
The median price for existing, single-family homes in Palm Beach County in May hit $311,000, a 5 percent increase from a year earlier, the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches said Wednesday.
Broward’s median was $312,500, up 8 percent from May 2015, according to the Greater Fort Lauderdale Realtors.”
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/realestate/fl-home-sales-may-20160622-story.html#nt=oft13a-17gp1
Since one can sell just about anything if it is marketed correctly I think I will try this concept out on my customers:
If NIRP means people pay you money to borrow then debt is not really debt, instead debt becomes an asset. The more debt you incur, the more income arrives in your bank account.
Also, if an asset earns a negative return then it acts as a debt, it acts as a debt used to act before the invention of NIRP.
So, debt really and truly is wealth, and wealth is really and truly debt.
If we can get our government and corporate bean counters to NIRP their balance sheets by having the assets and liabilities swap positions then most of our financial problems will be immediately solved.
That comes later…maybe.
In the more immediate future: federal confiscation of individual retirement assets. They won’t STEAL them, per se. They’ll just tax the hell of out them.
The US Federal Government prefers the slow torture of its citizens. It’s ironic that the feds frown on waterboarding.
“They won’t STEAL them, per se. They’ll just tax the hell of out them.”
A distinction without a difference.
You mean I might have to pay taxes on my Roth withdrawls after all?
Yes. And those taxes may be considerable.
Yikes! that kinda makes sense in a horrible twisted dystopian way….the only thing missing is a newspeak definition for the concept
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspeak
A proxy war against ourselves:
‘A smoldering confrontation between Syrian armed groups backed by the United States but hostile to each other is escalating, complicating the fight against Islamic State in the war-torn country. Syrian Arab rebels under the Free Syrian Army (FSA) banner say they are in a growing struggle against the Kurdish YPG militia that are helping the United States wage its campaign against IS in Syria.’
‘More than five years since it began, there is no end in sight to the war in Syria that has created the world’s worst refugee crisis, helped the rise of Islamic State, drawn in foreign states, and killed several hundred thousand people.’
“For years now, the notion of Assad being a target on the US bombing list has been very much at the fore. Then came the thundering effect of Islamic State forces and the continued role of al-Qaida elements fighting under various designations. In this scrambled mix could be added Free Syria Army forces, though that title remains a fluid, nonsensical one.
On Friday, the Obama administration was attempting to do some tidying up in the aftermath of a leaked internal memorandum cable critical of its position on Syria. In the past, this has usually involved castigating the leaker, or whistleblower, and banging the person up for a few decades. On this occasion, the New York Times and Wall Street Journal got the spoils, and no one is set for the chop.”
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/06/22/warmongering-and-necromancy-the-us-state-department-dissent-on-syria-2/
‘More than five years since it began, there is no end in sight to the war in Syria that has created the world’s worst refugee crisis”
by Edwin Mora
30 Nov 2015
Washington, D.C.
The Obama administration pursued a policy in Libya back in 2011 that ultimately allowed guns to walk into the hands of jihadists linked to the Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL) and al-Qaeda (AQ) in Syria, according to a former CIA officer who co-authored a report on behalf of the Citizen’s Commission on Benghazi (CCB), detailing the gun running scheme.
In Congress, the then-bipartisan group known as the “Gang of Eight,” at a minimum, knew of the operation to aid and abet America’s jihadist enemies by providing them with material support. So says Clare Lopez, a former CIA officer and the primary author of CCB’s interim report, titled How America Switched Sides in the War on Terror, speaking with Breitbart News.
The ripple effects of the illegal policy to arm America’s enemies continue to be felt as the U.S. military is currently leading a war against ISIS and AQ terrorists in Iraq and Syria, according to Lopez.
In late October, Defense Secretary Ash Carter said that the U.S. would begin “direct action on the ground” against ISIS terrorists in Iraq and Syria who may have reaped the benefits from the gun-running scheme that started in Libya.
“The Obama administration effectively switched sides in what used to be called the Global War on Terror [GWOT] when it decided to overthrow the sovereign government of our Libyan ally, Muammar Qaddafi, who’d been helping in the fight against al-Qaeda, by actually teaming up with and facilitating gun-running to Libyan al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood [MB] elements there in 2011,” explained Lopez. “This U.S. gun-running policy in 2011 during the Libyan revolution was directed by [then] Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and [the late Libya Ambassador] Christopher Stevens, who was her official envoy to the Libyan AQ rebels.”
To avoid having the funds tracked back to the Obama administration, the arms flow to Libya was financed thru the United Arab Emirates, while Qatar served as the logistical and shipping hub, she noted.
“In 2012, the gun-running into Libya turned around and began to flow outward, from Benghazi to the AQ-and-MB-dominated rebels in Syria,” Lopez added. “This time, it was the CIA Base of Operations that was in charge of collecting up and shipping out [surface-to-air missiles] SAMs from Libya on Libyan ships to Turkey for overland delivery to a variety of jihadist militias, some of whose members later coalesced into groups like Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS [also known as IS].”
Jabhat al-Nusra is al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate.
“The downstream consequences of Obama White House decisions in the Syrian conflict are still playing out, but certainly the U.S. – and particularly CIA – support of identifiable jihadist groups associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, the Islamic State and other [jihadists] has only exacerbated what was already a devastating situation,” declared Lopez.
Some of the other weapons that eventually ended up in Syria included thousands of MAN-Portable-Air-Defense-System (MANPADS) missile units, such as shoulder-launched SAMs, from late dictator Muammar Qaddafi’s extensive arms stockpiles that pose a threat to low-flying aircraft, especially helicopters.
“It’s been reported that President Obama signed an Executive Order on Syria in early 2012 [just as he had done for Libya in early 2011], that legally covered the CIA and other U.S. agencies that otherwise would have been in violation of aiding and abetting the enemy in time of war and providing material support to terrorism,” notes Lopez. “Still, such blatant disregard for U.S. national security can only be described as deeply corrosive of core American principles.”
Libya Amb. Stevens was killed by jihadists in Benghazi on September 11, 2012, along with three other Americans.
Echoing a Benghazi resident who provided a first-hand account of the incident, retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Col. Dennis Haney, a CCB member, suggested to Breitbart News that Hillary Clinton’s State Department armed some of the al-Qaeda linked jihadists who may have killed the four Americans in Benghazi.
“The reason the U.S. government was operating in Libya is absolutely critical to this debacle because it reflects where America went off the tracks and literally switched sides in the GWOT,” points out Lopez. “This is about who we are as a country, as a people — where we are going with this Republic of ours.”
http://www.breitbart.com/…/ - 102k -
‘The reason the U.S. government was operating in Libya’
Stevens was “stove-piping” weapons from Libya into Syria. From one war crime/regime change into another.
^^^^^THIS! I didn’t shed a tear for the guy when he bit it. Far as I’m concerned, it was the most awesome example of instant karma I’ve ever seen.
Diane Reynolds
Chelsea Hubbell.
She couldn’t readily admit that in the hearings being that it violated Embassy neutrality.
Thanks Obama. Now get the F outta town.
He’s not going anywhere, he’ll be Secretary General of the UN next.
At least W had the decency to retire to watercolor painting.
Nobel Peace Prize!
I thought that the UN was dominated communist Third World dictators hostile to the freedom-loving USA. On the other hand, maybe they would put Obama in charge for that very reason.
The news says that a bunch of SJWs are trying to make sure that a woman is chosen.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/05/helen-clark-former-new-zealand-prime-minister-confirms-bid-for-united-nations-top-job
“The news says that a bunch of SJWs are trying to make sure that a woman is chosen.”
If Obama wants the gig, he’ll get it before any woman does, as Hillary well knows.
The only problem is that there’s no indication that he wants the job.
“He’s not going anywhere, he’ll be Secretary General of the UN next.”
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Oh, Jeebus, I couldn’t stand it. To have Mr. Moral Authority lecturing the planet would be one of the worst forms of psychological torture for mankind, ever.
Just to get a daily dose of outrage, I watched part of his press conference after the announcement of the SCOTUS ruling on his illegal executive action regarding illegal immigration. First thing I noticed is the frost on the old pumpkin there. Well, at least he doesn’t dye his hair.
He definitely has some sort of academic instructor experience, though. Every speech seems to be an effort to preach a moral lesson of some sort. Jeez, if he’d just shut his trap he could end global warming right there.
I thought for sure he’d be moving back to Chicago or Hawaii, but noooo, I hear he’ll be staying in Washington until one of the kids graduates from high school. So he’ll be hanging around sticking his nose in everyone’s bidnezz for a while. Ugh.
He’ll get tapped for the UN, and bring Michael Bloomberg on as a special adviser on the global Take Away All The Scary Looking Guns In The Hands Of American Citizens project to remove the last barrier to collectivist, one world government.
You heard it here first.
Who does the tapping?
Congressional sit-in! Lol. I have to admit to a wee bit of schadenfreude toward Paul Ryan. What goes around, comes around, Paulie.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-23/democrat-gun-control-sit-continues-its-second-day-house-floor
Salon leads with this:
“the Second Amendment is no longer a necessary means of self-preservation, as perhaps it might’ve been in a rural, agrarian, semi-hostile, slave-holding, post-colonial America. Absent the wilderness hazards of the late 18th Century, it’s strictly become a means of protecting the availability of a retail product. Hardware. A hobby. Guns are a product that we don’t absolutely have to own in order for democracy and liberty to flourish — and, in fact, owning a gun is statistically bad for you, that is unless you earn your living manufacturing and selling them.”
http://www.salon.com/2016/06/23/theyve_earned_your_applause_the_democrats_house_sit_in_illustrates_who_truly_represents_the_people_on_gun_control/
And yet, the various elites of finance, politics, tech and entertainment have armed security.
I love the liberal reporter trying to prove how easy it is to get an AR-15. Except his purchase was held up when he didn’t clear the background check because he has a domestic violence charge. Then it became a “discrimination” casde for him. Lol. Luckily he’s an internet joke sensation now.
yep, he claims it’s BS,but oddly he’s not suing
Or the other guy claiming PTSD and “bazooka” like explosions when he fired an AR-15. What an insult to those who serve and have served in war.
Another liberal idiot made into an internet joke sensation. All the responses were met with pictures of men’s daughters under the age of 10 firing their AR’s no problem.
The no guns AND open borders crowd.
See a problem here?
Me thinks the federal government needs to prove that it has rid itself of all the tanks, guns and artillery it has stored on the East Coast and elsewhere before it dares to ask the citizenry do the same.
Salon can get bent- I’m sure they’ve never called 911 before due to people trying to kick down their door at 3am. It took the cops 20 mins to show up at my place, and if they had gotten into my place and I had been unarmed, what then? (this was in one of those hip urban core areas, which is in theory fully served by the local PD)
Unnecessary as a means of self-preservation my ass.
One punk tried to break into my buddies apartment one night. The punk was met with a .40 in his face with a strobe going. Punk dropped his own shoes (dunno why he didn’t have them on) and bolted so fast.
geeez… it is like a different planet out there.
A friend of mine was broken into a few years ago…the robber was staring him and his wife in the face in his bedroom.
He was OK, thankfully, but the police officer suggested that he should have a gun.
Sounds like a horror film. Thankfully he wasn’t harmed.
Owning a pool is also statistically bad for you, but there is no Salon.com article about it.
Not to mention a money pit. The few people I know with inground pools spend so much time readjusting chemicals, cleaning, skimming, etc. By the time the water warms up, you get 3 months of use out of it. My one buddy just bought a foreclosure, the previous owners being angry at the bank, ripped the pool liner. That repair cost my friend $3500
I was referring to a statistic that I believe was quoted in Freakonomics…a child is more likely to drown at a house that has a pool than be killed by a gun in a house that has a gun.
So you’re statistic only applies to children. It must be the opposite for adults.
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2001/07/27/levittpoolsvsguns/
Here is the article on the dangers of pools with kids.
We should outlaw pool ownership if you have children.
“Nobody NEEDS an AR-15……”
Well, no, maybe we do………
You know, in this country there are thousands of things that people don’t “need”, but they want/desire them. Nobody “needs” to be a Wall Street bankster, or hedge funder, pulling down hundreds of millions of dollars for screwing up formerly profitable manufacturers and businesses, either.
But I don’t see anybody doing a congressional sit-in to make those guys illegal.
Besides, it is becoming more apparant that there was more than adequate laws in place to keep him from getting one, but it didn’t happen due to the inaction of various people, starting with the family.
Went to a gun show last weekend. Tons of AR’s, not many buyers, even though the dealers didn’t jack the prices 75% the way they did after the school shooting. IMO, the AR-15 market is totally saturated. At this point, anyone who even remotely wants one, has one (or two). In fact, it’s like the flood or ARs has taken all of the oxygen out of the rest of the gun market.
In the meantime, the price of legit M-1 Garands continues to go up, if you can find one. Of the dozen or so for sale at the show, not one of them was for sale for less than $1000. As the -fixr got his back in the early 1990s, he can sit back and smile……
This is a fantastic post. Thanks, X-er.
F**K you, Salon. Molon Labe.
Tell us how you really feel.
“Congressional sit-in! Lol.”
Baby Boomers.
It’s always a positive when Congress is literally doing nothing. They should protest until November.
^^^^This.
While I think it’s outrageous we don’t do more to prevent homicidal types from getting firearms, and I absolutely don’t see any right to a convenient firearm in the Constitution, watching politicians trying to re-enact a sit-in is farcical. Pure political theater. Watching these powdered, venal, feckless kleptocrats singing racial justice songs while the other side assiduously acts like everything is normal is theater of the absurd.
“No one will really understand politics until they understand that politicians are not trying to solve our problems. They are trying to solve their own problems — of which getting elected and re-elected are No. 1 and No. 2. Whatever is No. 3 is far behind”. — Thomas Sowell
’stridently searching for words to accurately describe what in the world is going on right now’
I throw these in from time to time, but I could dedicate the blog to little towns you never heard of in states you couldn’t find on a map that have multiple offers, over asking, with a UHS telling you “make an escalating, no contingency offer on the hood of my BMW, hurry!”
Just look at Portland Maine (featured in a couple of your postings).
No idea what people do up there besides panhandle, brew beer, sleep on the streets, or attend the Art institution. Of course this is a generalization because there are some oil ports and seafood industry, but not enough to justify a miraculous rental/housing price boom. As soon as you come off I-295 into the downtown area, you’ll see 3-4 panhandlers on at the intersections.
do they have Somalis?
or is that just Camden
they like cold weather
‘There are currently 65 major buildings under construction across downtown, South Lake Union and surrounding neighborhoods, more than at any point since the figures were first tracked in 2005, the Downtown Seattle Association said in a new report. The previous midyear high was 50 buildings under construction in 2014 and 49 last year.’
‘And the frenzy isn’t set to end anytime soon: Most of the structures will take until next year to finish, and there are dozens more in the pipeline set to start in the next year and a half. About two-thirds of the project are residential. The number of housing units under construction downtown has also hit a new high since 2005.’
Three straight years of record high construction and ‘the frenzy isn’t set to end anytime soon’.
FED bailouts encourage reckless gambling in real estate.
10 years later they are still running adds on tv here for principal reductions for those duped by angelo. His golf game is looking good though.And where did the money come to pay for these bailouts? Borrowed of course.
Why should I overpay to keep these folks in their house they never could afford?
‘Arlington County, which last year approved construction of a record 3,747 rental apartments or condominiums, has given the green light to build about 1,900 more so far in 2016. ‘Millennials are slowly coming out of mom and dad’s basement, and the first rental or purchase tends to be in these apartments and condos. There’s an enormous pent-up demand.’
Two straight years of record construction. Again with the millennial’s in the basement bit. Remember the Atlanta condo joker cracking every one up with the line about “I hope mom and dad loan basement-junior the down payment”?
Yeah the narrative is stale. All my millennial friends working in NoVA (North VA) are already in apartments in the DC metro.
And despite most of them working median salary jobs, guess how many have $50-75,000 saved for a down payment? Ding ding ding, 0.
Look at now - but the birth rate is way down since 2001.
Who are all the new renters going to be in 2025? Foreigners?
I can tell you one thing, in Silly Valley it seems at times that the majority are immigrants, both legal and illegal.
Heck ya, why pay an American tech worker $80,000-$100,000 when you get a 22 yr old Indian on a H1B1 ?? Export blue collar, import white collar. America’s economy is going places.
‘The celebrations of 500 million monthly active users on Instagram didn’t go the way Mark Zuckerberg would have thought. The Facebook founder shared a photo of his to mark the celebrations of the new milestone. But the moment that made Zuckerberg talk of the town was when some of the observers noticed that the Facebook founder had put tape around his laptop’s microphone and webcam in a fear of being hacked.’
‘James Comey, Director of FBI, in April, revealed the possible intrusion from a microphone or webcam of laptop and said that he also put a tape over the webcam and microphone of his laptop “because I saw somebody smarter than I’m had a piece of tape over their camera.” Therefore, one cannot just let off the fact of possible intrusion of a hacker through a webcam or microphone of a laptop.’
‘Ironically, Mark Zuckerberg’s firm, Facebook, in the past has been accused of hearing phone conversations when Facebook’s app is open on a smartphone. The act is parallel to understand users’ desires and activities, and in turn feeding him with relevant content on the social media platform in order to engage profoundly. The social media giant, however, later denied such claims.’
‘A chunk of the media houses and social media posts jokingly branded Zuckerberg as paranoid. In Facebook’s regulatory filings, the company has revealed that it spent a whopping $16 million on Zuckerberg’s private air travel that comes under ‘all other compensation,’ that also comprises of equipment for his security as well as of his house. Mark has also hired 16 bodyguards who safeguard him at his $10 million home near Palo Alto.’
He’ll end up wearing Kleenex boxes on his feet.
There are a lot of conspiratards focused on him. If I were a lizard person, I’d get bodyguards too.
Who are all the new renters going to be in 2025? Foreigners?
Boomer retirees?
“I can tell you one thing, in Silly Valley it seems at times that the majority are immigrants, both legal and illegal.”
To that, I say:
这是种族主义的。 你真应该多一分包容,这些卓越的您。
“Boomer retirees?”
Those are starting to head into the rest homes already. It’s not a luxury apartment building if it smells of lysol and pee.
I always think of retirement homes with characters like Ben Stiller in Happy Gilmore.
“I’d like a warm glass of milk to help me sleep”
Stiller : “You can have a warm glass of shut the hell up. You will sleep. Or I will put you to sleep”
Hopefully all these boomers saved a lot during their debt binges over the decades. Don’t nursing homes cost upwards of $10,000/mo ? Because their kids are stuck with empty pockets in the unaffordable world they fueled and voted for.
When you run out of money, medicare takes over.
I believe Medicare only covers 100% of a nursing home for the first 90 days, then it scales off 50%, 25%, 0% after bit more time.
It’s Medicaid that generally pays. Of course, you have to close to zero assets usually.
Drive until u qualify dude!
I wonder how buckeye, az is holding up?
Downpayments, LOL. Nobody makes downpayments any more.
Just using the Skyscraper Index, we are overdue for another economic crash.
There were a number of unfinished holes in the ground in Seattle during the last economic downturn - some of them were actually filled in and returned to parking lots.
“we are overdue for another economic crash.”
August/September.
Affordability crisis? Not in Palm Beach County
June 23, 2016
http://realtime.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2016/06/23/affordability-crisis-not-in-palm-beach-county/
Doesn’t make much sense with housing prices 250% higher than long term trend.
Obama immigration plan blocked by 4-4 tie at Supreme Court
By MARK SHERMAN
Associated Press
Jun 23, 10:50 AM EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) — A tie vote by the Supreme Court is blocking President Barack Obama’s immigration plan that sought to shield millions living in the U.S. illegally from deportation.
The justices’ one-sentence opinion on Thursday effectively kills the plan for the duration of Obama’s presidency.
A tie vote sets no national precedent but leaves in place the ruling by the lower court. In this case, the federal appeals court in New Orleans said the Obama administration lacked the authority to shield up to 4 million immigrants from deportation and make them eligible for work permits without approval from Congress.
Made my day.
Doesn’t seem to matter seeing how the border agents and INS don’t have the resources to actually deport people. After long detention periods they’re left with no option but to cut them loose.
Funny how there are “resources” to educate their kids, feed them and provide them with free medical care.
They have the resources, but they’ve been told to stand down, if they want to keep their jobs.
Meanwhile there seems to be plenty of resources to pay State Department “contractors” like Catholic Charities and the Lutherans to import refugees from Washington’s bombed out hellholes and dump them on unsuspecting communities.
Wait, the president can’t just do what they want?
Small victory for those who still believe we live in a representative democracy.
How high will taxes need to go to pay for all this?
lol@lola
‘Home prices in Washington are rising faster than any other state in the country for the first time in 25 years. County by county, the numbers are astonishing. According to the Seattle Times, the median home value in King County is up nearly 50 percent from a year ago.’
Somebody is watching this, right?
Damn….. the reckoning on the horizon is far deeper than I thought.
As my 12 year old sez:
“It will be EPIC”.
Yes, and they have their pom-poms out and everything.
Henderson, NV Housing Prices Crater 8% As Foreclosures Ramp Up
http://www.zillow.com/henderson-nv/home-values/
‘A sitting U.S. congressman – and former champion of post-crisis mortgage relief – has been found guilty on a raft of racketeering charges. Rep. Chaka Fattah Sr. (D-Pa.) and three of his associates were found guilty of participating in a racketeering conspiracy that involved the misappropriation of federal, charitable and campaign funds, according to the Department of Justice.’
‘Fattah was one of the architects of the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s Emergency Homeowner Relief Program, according to a HousingWire report. The HUD program set aside $1 billion to provide interest-free loans to cover mortgage payments for unemployed borrowers in the wake of the financial crisis.’
‘Fattah was convicted – along with associates Robert Brand, Karen Nicholas and Herbert Vederman – of participating in a racketeering conspiracy. Fattah was also convicted of conspiracy to commit bribery, bribery, conspiracy to commit wire fraud, conspiracy to commit honest services fraud, mail fraud, money laundering conspiracy, money laundering, bank fraud, false statements to a financial institution, six counts of mail fraud and five counts of falsification of records.’
Don’t let the door hit him where the good lord split him.
How many Congresscritters are doing this sort of thing, but not getting caught?
Chaka, chaka, chaka (Khan) Fattah.
Chaka, chaka, chaka (Khan) oh I mean Fattah….
Ha! I posted a link about this yesterday and said I was surprised there was no real estate angle to his corruption. But of course he was one of the pro-bailout folks.
A significant percentage of the US population derives their income from slapping together housing, or processing the paperwork/generating the money for the sale of housing.
As many of these jobs don’t really require anything other than minimal licensing/training, and most of it seems to be OJT, it’s the perfect place to dump people who have been put out of work by globalization.
What will happen if the the housing market returns to “normal”, with large down payments, and elimination of “fog a mirror” financing? Millions will be out of a job, to be added to the millions already displaced who can’t find work that pays over $12/hour.
The PTB in this country continue to pick “winners” and “losers”. The “winners” are obvious……….Wall Street/financial vultures, the Health care/Pharma/Insurance industrial complex, Real Estate, and the California Tech industry. Everyone else will just have to figure out how to survive with all these leeches.
Shoot, my buddy quit chasing his engineering degree and got his RE “license”. Then again he had to repeat a few core engineer classes at least twice, so maybe he wasn’t cut out for critical thinking…
Now his social media is filled with “Get on this deal now!”, “Look at this beautiful ranch!”, “Interest rates at their lowest!” type propaganda.
I guess it depends on your definition of “normal” and your view on current market conditions.
My understanding is that “fog a mirror” finance is gone.
And while 3% down payment loans still exist today, they have existed for 40+ years…my parents bought their first house in the mid-70’s with a 3% down FHA mortgage.
From my experience, the thing that seems “abnormal” right now is the total amount of housing being built…which is still well below the multi-decade average.
Personally, and based on the data I read, I think that moving toward “normal” leads to more housing activity, not less.
Go ahead, now you may throw rotten tomatoes at me.
The US has been warned about its high poverty rate in the International Monetary Fund’s annual assessment of the economy.
The fund said about one in seven people were living in poverty and that it needed to be tackled urgently.
It recommended raising the minimum wage and offering paid maternity leave to women to encourage them to work.
The report also cut the country’s growth forecast for 2016 to 2.2% from a previous prediction of 2.4%.
Slower global growth and weaker consumer spending were blamed.
US economic growth slowed to an annual pace of 0.5% during the first three months of the year, down sharply from 1.4% in the last three months of 2015.
‘Social strains’
But the stronger labour market meant that overall “the US economy is in good shape”, said the IMF’s managing director Christine Lagarde. May’s unemployment figures showed the rate at an eight-year low of 4.7%.
However Ms Lagarde warned that “not only does poverty create significant social strains, it also eats into labour force participation, and undermines the ability to invest in education and improve health outcomes”.
“Our assessment is that, if left unchecked, these four forces - participation, productivity, polarisation and poverty - will corrode the underpinnings of growth and hold back gains in US living standards,” she added.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36599316
How many more years of ZIRP until we have a recovery?
how about we give this a shot:
Supply-side economics is a macroeconomic theory[1][2] which argues that economic growth can be most effectively created by investing in capital and by lowering barriers on the production of goods and services. According to supply-side economics, consumers will then benefit from a greater supply of goods and services at lower prices; furthermore, the investment and expansion of businesses will increase the demand for employees and therefore create jobs. Typical policy recommendations of supply-side economists are lower marginal tax rates and less government regulation.[3]
That sounds like poor definition. It was also part of something that was called voodoo economics and didn’t work out well.
http://metrocosm.com/how-we-share-the-world/?ref=tw
This interactive graphic shows how the world is divided according to six different socioeconomic variables. The land area of each country represents its share of the worldwide total.
Amused me for five minutes.
Venezuela
This…..
‘http://wwwtheworldandeverythinginit.blogspot.com/2016/06/grocery-shopping-during-venezuelas-food.html
Venezuelans voted for socialism. Now they can f**king starve as far as I’m concerned. Stupidity SHOULD hurt.
You just derive satisfaction from the suffering of others.
“Experience keeps a dear school but fools will learn in no other.” — Ben Franklin
Talk about self agrandizement…
I fell off my chair when I read this Reuters blurb……
OBAMA SPOKE BY PHONE ON THURSDAY WITH KENYAN PRESIDENT KENYATTA, DISCUSSED NEED FOR STRONG INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR REFUGEES IN KENYA-WHITE HOUSE
Will ‘Muricans bend over as meekly for the next subprime bailout as they did for the last one?
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/06/21/ny-fed-warns-government-insured-subprime-mortgages/
Libtard Californians should be barred from entry into any of the free states they try to infest.
http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_30037774/greener-pastures-beckon-some-beleaguered-residents
Hopefully it is just the Chinese and Persians fleeing CA. They wont be missed.
Cuba Libre
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article85496792.html
Will the British be voting for more of the same, or will they reject Soros-backed “fundamental transformation”?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3654246/Mob-violence-lawless-Paris-Terrifying-video-shows-woman-tourist-viciously-attacked-marauding-youths-city-deserted-police-despite-state-emergency-Euros-rampage.html
Toss a coin, buggered if I know.
I remind you of this because this past week, during Janet Yellen’s semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, she was asked by California Rep. Edward Royce the following:
“ROYCE: I’m worried that the Federal Reserve has created a third pillar of monetary policy, that of a stable and rising stock market. And I say that because then-Chairman Bernanke, when he appeared here, stated repeatedly that, ‘the goal of QE was to increase asset prices like the stock market to create a wealth effect.’
That seems as though that was goal. It would stand to reason then that in deciding to raise rates and reduce the Fed’s QE balance sheet standing at a still record $4.5 trillion, one would have to be prepared to accept the opposite result, a declining stock market and a slight deflation of the asset bubble that QE created. Yet, every time in the past three years when there has been a hint of raising rates and the stock market has declined accordingly, the Fed has cited stock market volatility as one of the reasons to stay the course and hold rates at zero.
YELLEN: It is not a third pillar of monetary policy. We do not target the level of stock prices. That is not an appropriate thing for us to do.”
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/cash-as-an-asset-class-and-stock-prices-as-a-fed-target/
It is fortunate for Yellen that 95% of the ‘Murican electorate are stupid, or she might face actual consequences for her counterfeiting and racketeering.
And I say that because then-Chairman Bernanke, when he appeared here, stated repeatedly that, ‘the goal of QE was to increase asset prices like the stock market to create a wealth effect.’
That sounds like a lie. I doubt that he ever said that it was the goal.
The Federal Reserve and inequality - The Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/…/cef652d4-0955...
The Washington Post
Jun 4, 2015 - Indeed, Fed officials from former chair Ben S. Bernanke on down said quantitative easing’s “wealth effect” would stimulate the broader economy …
That’s not exactly the same as saying that it was the goal of the policy.
‘Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in a Washington Post opinion piece, defended the central bank’s decision to buy $600 billion in government bonds and noted that quantitative easing “eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again.” The central bank chairman noted that stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell in anticipation of Wednesday’s decision. “Lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance. Lower corporate bond rates will encourage investment. And higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending,” he said.’
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-defends-qe-talks-wealth-effect-in-op-ed-2010-11-04
You can eat your hat now.
Irrelevant Mike thanks you for another Ben Jones Slap Session.
That quote doesn’t say that the wealth effect is the main reason that he did QE, just a beneficial side effect.
You were wrong about Vin Scully saying Hugo Chavez’s daughter was the richest person in Venezuela too.
Eat another hat.
There is only on solution to this equation: Yellen is LYING.
While through her sophistry she may not technically be lying when she claims “we do not some-stock-index==X”, what the FRB does to is to target “some-stock-index>Y”.
The Plunge Protection Team is on high alert over the Brexit contingency!
The Financial Times
UK’s EU referendum
Brexit response unit activated
Contingency planning appears straight out of an SAS manual
City Insider
22 minutes ago
‘This is the War Room!’: Clifford Chance’s ‘bunker’ features posters of Peter Sellers as US president in ‘Dr Strangelove’
5 hours ago
by: Edited by Harriet Agnew
As the referendum polls drew to a close, the language around contingency planning appeared straight out of an SAS manual. US exchange operator CME Group reassured clients that it had been adding staff to its “Global Command Centre”. (That’s a back room in Chicago to you and me.) Over at Clifford Chance in Canary Wharf, the Magic Circle law firm had set up a Jack Baueresque “24/7 Brexit rapid response unit” to respond to client queries across the world. A cynic would say that lawyers are quids in if there’s a vote for Brexit. It would mean hours of work advising on contingency plans and unwinding 40 years of membership. But as Clifford Chance partner Simon Gleeson has been telling clients: “It’s rather like being a doctor in the Black Death — you’re very busy at the time, but it’s not really good in the long term.” Back in Clifford Chance’s secret bunker, one joker has decorated the walls with posters of Peter Sellers in his role as US president in Stanley Kubrick’s black comedy Dr Strangelove. “Gentlemen, you can’t fight in here! This is the War Room!”
…
Lake Worth, FL Housing Prices Crater 13% YoY; Mortgage Defaults Balloon As Housing Demand Plummets Statewide
http://www.zillow.com/fl/home-values/
Corey Smith — F* the Po-Po:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3YPc8FYA6D8
“Crude Is Crashing”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-22/crude-crashing-again
Att. In Colorado
Free health care coming . To co
the Who — 5.15:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OR5v4yyPV6Y
What’s cookin’ Potsy?
Have any of u ever lived in a yurt before?
Seems like a great way to get quick and cheap shelter. Rough it for awhile and save up that 3% down! John muir woods is close for any of u n the bay area.
I’ve thought about going the yurt route in the Colorado backcountry.
http://coloradoyurt.com/?gclid=CISunbupv80CFQeraQodVJUFMQ
Parliament — Dr. Funkenstein (mute the youtube commercial):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noqMfTRKNlo
An entire album about corrupt government and corrupt cops? Yeah, in 1991.
Ice T — OG Original Gangster:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjQIdV9bLDM
Goon, my brother, amidst the shuffling zombies, you give me hope that maybe all isn’t lost after all.
North Dallas, TX Housing Prices Crash 17% YoY As Speculators Dump Properties
http://www.zillow.com/north-dallas-dallas-tx/home-values/
Brexit lookin’ good, at the moment. Go, Blighty!
Does anyone know how the winner is decided? Is it straight votes?
Good question. As far as I can tell, the answer is yes. ZH did a guide to the vote, but I don’t see anything referring to percentages, so I’m assuming it’s straight votes.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-23/britain-votes-all-you-need-know-about-todays-brexit-referendum-and-what-look
Here’s where it stands right now:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-23/nailbiter-continues-here-are-first-official-results-and-they-give-bremain-some-hope
Ignore the first headline, at first things looked bad for brexit, then it turned around. ZH is actually doing a great job with coverage and updates. I keep refreshing the page.
The Lindsay Lohan thing cracked me up. A little comic relief.
Jeebus, Remain just took the lead. Ouch! Yep, it’s an all night nail biter.
Now Leave is making a comeback. What a horse race!
C’mon Blighty, you can do this. Leave!
Lookout below…
Referendum of the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union
Last updated Jun 23 at 7:27 PM
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
41.9% Reporting
Votes
Remain a member of the European Union
48.9%
5,819,095
Leave the European Union
51.1%
6,076,476
Live
EU referendum results live: Brexit most likely outcome say pollsters, betting markets and Labour
Michael Wilkinson, Political Correspondent
24 June 2016 • 3:51am
…
Da Middle Fanger
GBPUSD British Pound (Tullett Prebon)
Delayed Quote Data as of 6/23/16 11:30 p.m.
1.35 -0.14 (-9.2376%)
Sky News calls Brexit.
http://news.sky.com/watch-live
“The result will overshadow the polls.”
Didja brace yourself for Brexit? 8:56 pm pacific time and stock futures are getting crushed. Down 4% right now.
Gold: up. Steeply.
Bitcoin up. Steeply.
“Brexit is now the base case,” said Matthew Sherwood, head of investment strategy at Perpetual Ltd. in Sydney, which manages about $21 billion. “Investors are just trying to get out. You sell first and ask questions later. There was a massive miscalculation of risk and now you’re seeing all that unwind.”
Oh my word! Diversification rulz!
#Brexit
Lots of questions. Technically, it’s non-binding. Expect the EU to play hardball however they can’t force the UK to do anything.
When will the UK invoke Article 50?
What happens to Scotland + Northern Ireland?
#Spexit?
Brexit wins!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-results-live-brexit-wins-as-britain-votes-to-leave/
Ben - thanks for the Sky link. I’ve been watching.
GLORIOUS NEWS! ”Tis nothing better than opting for freedom.
Tomorrow’s domestic stock market barf should be over in a week or two. Bank stocks will really get creamed. Could be a nice buying opportunity overall, depending.
Off to bed…
“New Home Sales Plunge Most In 8 Months Following Sharp Downward Revisions; Median Home Price Tumbles”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-23/new-home-sales-plunge-most-8-months-8-year-highs-prices-fall