The Increases In Prices Have Been Insane
The Traverse City Record Eagle reports from Michigan. “Chase and Brent Ritchie entered the housing market about a month ago with a firm $150,000 budget. ‘It’s sort of impossible in this market because as soon as you find something you like, there’s an offer on it the next day,’ Chase Ritchie said. The couple jumped into the market as buyers while the supply continues to tighten, said Catherine Barris, associate broker at Real Estate One. Barris has seen the definition of ‘affordable’ for such real estate push $250,000. ‘Between $200,000 and $225,000 is hot right now,’ she said. ‘Prices have been going up really rapidly and demand is huge.’”
“Those who do sell will have an upper hand, said Barris, who frequently sees prices on property listings inflated by 10 to 20 percent. A client recently sold a house for $159,000 that two years ago would have been lucky to sell for $130,000, she said.”
The Idaho Statesman. “In a perfect world, Boise couple Christi and Micah Farrell could take a day to talk about spending more than $350,000 on a house. Sellers often field multiple offers at asking prices or higher the day their homes hit the market. The Farrells have been house hunting for two months and have visited 10 homes in the past two weeks. Christi Farrell said each home was a little too small or needed a little too much work for the asking price. ‘It’s nerve-wracking,’ she said. ‘I want to walk through a house and be able to sleep on it, process it just a little bit. I feel this pressure that if you want something, you have to buy it now or it will be gone.’”
“Some buyers — especially those who have lost bids on other houses — are winning bids after writing personal letters to sellers explaining why their families would cherish a house. Under normal conditions, a market with low inventory and strong price gains would attract more sellers, said Mike Turner, owner of Front Street Brokers in Boise. ‘Some sellers are waiting because they aren’t excited about what they can get for their house yet,’ said Turner.”
“More than half of Turner’s buyers hail from outside of the state, he said. Turner said there’s no reason to think out-of-state money won’t continue to support rising home values as long as buyers in expensive markets, such as California, can sell homes there and replace them at a fraction of the cost in the Treasure Valley. ‘Maybe prices are higher than what we’re used to, but for those buyers, the cost of living is still a fraction of where they’re coming from. That’s why I think it’s sustainable,’ Turner said.”
The Seattle Times in Washington. “It’s not just Seattle that’s seeing eye-popping housing costs. Soaring costs from Bellingham to Spokane have propelled the state to a record for home prices, surpassing its pre-recession peak for the first time. Just in the last few years, Washington has zoomed up the list of priciest states in the nation. ‘There’s no reason to believe that this is going to stop anytime soon,’ said Peter Orser, director of the University of Washington’s Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies.”
“In coastal Grays Harbor County, home costs are now “only” $141,000 — but that’s way up from $88,000 four years ago. It’s among the regions seeing soaring housing costs despite remaining fairly economically depressed: The unemployment rate in Grays Harbor is 8.3 percent, third worst in the state and nearly double that of King County’s.”
“Gragg Miller, a managing broker at the Coldwell Banker Bain office in Bellingham, remembers hearing from Seattle agents years ago about getting 10 or more offers on houses in Seattle, creating bidding wars that drive up prices. ‘I thought, ‘I hope it never comes up to Bellingham,’?’ Miller said. Now, ‘It’s starting to come up here.’”
The Bend Bulletin in Oregon. “The number of cash buyers as a percentage of all homebuyers in Bend is on the decline, according to data from the Central Oregon Association of Realtors. ‘It’s a much different environment in real estate than when cash was being thrown around,’ said Carrie DiTullio, a Bend real estate broker.”
“Curtis Delamarter, a Bend broker, said newcomers often arrive in Bend with cash on hand from the sale of their property in Seattle, Portland or Southern California, looking for a lifestyle change and relatively cheaper deals on real estate. They’re not as willing to spend that money on a home purchase as they were when prices were at their lowest. ‘In 2011, you could buy a house in Bend for $150,000,’ Delamarter said. ‘That’s no longer possible.’”
The Orange County Register in California. “For those who think the housing market is too hot, here’s a bit of comforting news. A late spring slowdown in Orange County’s thirst for resale housing is the sharpest reversal in Southern California, according to one benchmark. As of June 16, Orange County’s market time was 69 days vs. 66 days four weeks ago and 60 days a year ago. Why has Orange County’s market time jumped? Well, listing inventory of existing homes for sale rose by 601 homes (10 percent) in four weeks to 6,868. New pending sales fell by 155 homes to 2,989, a 5 percent drop.”
“‘Basic Econ 101 tells us that when supply increases by 10 percent and demand drops by 5 percent, the pace at which homes sell cools. As a result, homes are not selling like hotcakes like they were a month ago,’ wrote Steve Thomas of ReportsOnHousing.”
“CoreLogic reported Orange County homebuilders had their best May in a decade with 421 new-home sales. That was up 49 percent in a year and almost 12 percent of all home purchases. Resales of homes and condos were up just 2 percent from May 2015. If homebuilders keep their hot sales pace, it may be competition – not skittish buyers – making the resale market look lethargic.”
The Mercury News in California. “After 12 years in Sunnyvale, Jason and Freda Collier and their two children are moving to Austin, Texas. ‘The increases in prices we’ve seen over the last 12 years have been insane, and I don’t know how sustainable it is,’ said Jason, a tech executive who sensed that ‘the market had reached its peak point’ and decided it was prudent to ‘make a move’ before prices fall. The Colliers sold their 1,600-square-foot Eichler home in Sunnyvale — which they purchased 12 years ago for $750,000 — for $1.7 million. In Austin, where Jason often travels on business, their new 5,000-square-foot home on half an acre with a swimming pool cost $740,000.”
“Real estate agent Kevin Swartz of the Sereno Group, who represented the Colliers, said their deal is a window on the current market, which he said has softened. The house attracted just one offer — and sold for $17,000 over its listing price, not much by recent standards. ‘A lot of buyers are really becoming very picky,’ Swartz said. ‘The market has changed. … It used to be, ‘How much do I have to pay to make sure I get this house?’ Now it’s, ‘Well, what do I really have to offer? Because I don’t want to overpay.’”
“Other agents agreed that the market has shifted in recent weeks — a change that might not be reflected in CoreLogic’s numbers, which are based on deals that have passed escrow and have been officially recorded. ‘It’s an interesting market right now,’ said Alain Pinel agent Mark Wong, who is based in Saratoga. ‘It’s transitioning. Before, the seller took all the control; they could ask anything they wanted. Now, the buyer can take a little bit more control.’”
‘Wells Fargo recently announced a new mortgage product they are calling “A game changer in the industry.” According to the bank, this product is purported to facilitate the dream of homeownership to more people by… wait for it… lowering the down payment and out-of-pocket costs associated with more conventional mortgage products, while also offering more consumer-friendly income and credit guidelines.’
‘This new product that those at Wells Fargo have declared “revolutionary” is called yourFirst Mortgage, and one has to imagine it must have been developed by somebody with a severe case of amnesia who has recently suffered from a bad concussion.’
‘According to their own press release, the loan program offers a down payment of as little as 3 percent for first-time homebuyers and low-to moderate-income credit history. Income standards have also been loosened to include others who will live in the home, such as family members or renters. Also, the required minimum credit score to qualify for this program was reduced down to just 620.’
‘But for those who may be concerned Wells Fargo is lending like its 2005… have no fear; Wells has partnered with, in their words, “credit experts such as Fannie Mae” to develop a loan option that gives homebuyers the best offering in the market.’
‘Their so-called credit expert, Fannie Mae, was the same Fannie Mae that was placed into conservatorship by the United States Federal Housing and Finance Agency on September 7, 2008.’
‘The sad fact is lending standards are dropping quickly back to the same level that fueled the start of the Great Recession. And as you might imagine, all these newly un-qualified borrowers entering the housing market have boosted home prices.’
‘According to the Census Bureau’s new home sales report: The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2016 was $321,100; the average sales price was $379,800. And the average price in April 2016 was $379,800 and the median price was $321,100. Both of these are above the bubble high.’
‘Furthermore, less than 2% of new homes were sold for less than $150K in April 2016. This is down from 30% in 2002, leading many to speculate that the under $150K starter-home is becoming extinct.’
‘Also, the National Association of Realtors just announced that median existing home prices hit an all-time high in May. In fact, the ratio of median home prices to median income is 4.2, well above the historical range of 3.2, and is also rapidly approaching its all-time high of around 4.5.’
‘The rise in home values will create equity that an owner can draw from and use for things such as vacations, hot tubs and RVs. This will entice more speculators into the market, which will drive up the price of homes further. And the economy will grow on the back of home equity extractions and asset bubbles.’
‘This may have sounded great if we had not tried this already less than eight years ago and it nearly brought down the entire global economy!’
‘Some may wonder why after the 2008 financial crisis Wall Street and the banks didn’t learn their lesson. The reason: The sad truth is the economy has become a giant Ponzi scheme that has become totally addicted to ever-increasing credit issuance and asset bubbles, which need progressively falling interest rates and reduced lending standards to entice new participants into the baneful game.’
‘Yes, we’ve seen this movie before, and the ending is no surprise. The only surprise comes from those who believe this time will be different.’
vacations, hot tubs and RVs
Where I grew up in the industrial Midwest we had an economy that built things.
That was before the Oligopoly offshored our manufacturing base to China. You know, for “shareholder value.”
At least under our Gun Salesman of the Century, one domestic industry is thriving.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/gun-salesman-in-chief-52600-a-day-under-obama-more-seen-under-hillary/article/2594961
Also suv s
The bailed auto cos only make a profit on guzzlers
“Justin Anderson, marketing director for Hyatt Guns in Charlotte, N.C., one of the nation’s biggest gun shops, said Obama has been great for sales.”
In Sept. 2008 I returned to the US after living/working overseas for a few years. I wanted to get some 9mm ammo for my house gun. Everywhere I went, the shelves were essentially bare, except for oddball calibers. It was impossible to buy a box or can of basic .22 LR ammo for plinking. Even some basic FMJ 9mm ammo was unobtainable. Forget about finding some JHP’s. Ultimately, I finally found a box or two of 9mm JHP’s at a little sporting goods store in Bishop or Big Pine, CA.
“…this product is purported to facilitate the dream of homeownership to more people by… wait for it… lowering the down payment and out-of-pocket costs associated with more conventional mortgage products, while also offering more consumer-friendly income and credit guidelines.”
Subprime is back.
Yes, but the important question:
Subprime like in 2005?
Or
Subprime like in 1998?
Or
Subprime like in 1988?
Could it be subprime like in 2016?
When I read replies like this, for some reason I always think about how people can drown in a foot of water. I don’t know exactly what the connection is, but that flashes into my mind.
Let’s not kid ourselves, “subprime” is not a phenomenon that comes and goes over time. It’s been a part of the housing market for decades. It’s just that at some points in history, underwriting standards have been more lax than others.
And at some times, underwriting standards have been so bad that they should be criminal.
Are underwriting standards loosening? Yes.
Are underwriting standards loose? I don’t know, but the signs that you would usually see if they are (high near-term defaults, strong volume of new home sales), are non-existent.
‘high near-term defaults…are non-existent’
Uh huh.
‘Loan modifications facilitated through the government’s Home Affordable Mortgage Program (HAMP) have historically re-defaulted at a lower rate than proprietary loan modifications, but HAMP mods facilitated in 2014 began re-defaulting at a higher rate than those modified in the two previous years, according to Black Knight Financial Services’ November 2014 Mortgage Monitor released on Monday.’
‘Black Knight’s study revealed that HAMP loan mods were re-defaulting at a higher rate for loans modified in 2014 than those modified in 2012 and 2013. About 9 percent of all HAMP mods completed in 2014 were delinquent after eight post-mod payments, compared with delinquency rates of 6 and 5 percent after eight post-mod payments for HAMP mods facilitated in 2012 and 2013, respectively.’
‘There has been a significant shift in the makeup of loan mod activity by investor in the last five to six years for both proprietary and HAMP loan mods. In 2009, the first year of HAMP, about 30 percent of HAMP loans were on private or portfolio loans and about 70 percent were on GSE loans. In 2014, only 10 percent of HAMP mods were on GSE loans, about 18 percent were on portfolio or private loans, and about 72 percent were on FHA or VA loans. In 2013, only 16 percent of HAMP loan mods were on FHA or VA loans.’
http://www.dsnews.com/news/01-12-2015/recent-hamp-loan-mods-re-defaulting-higher-rates
‘The Home Affordable Modification Program continues to disappoint. As of Dec. 31, one in three struggling homeowners who received a loan modification through HAMP ultimately redefaulted on those loans, a new report has found.’
‘Romero’s report found that the longer borrowers remain in the HAMP program, the more likely they are to redefault. Of the homeowners that received loan modifications in 2009, 53% had redefaulted by the end of 2014, up from 46% at the end of 2013. Of the nearly 1.4 million loans modified since 2009, 31% have redefaulted, according to Romero’s report.’
‘The high rate of redefaults raises questions about whether the loan terms borrowers received were sustainable — or even whether they should have received modifications in the first place.’
http://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/servicing/redefaults-continue-to-plague-hamp-1045414-1.html
Crickets…
HAMP modifications are simply delaying the pain from loans underwritten in 2005-2007. They are NOT loans written on today’s underwriting standards.
They’re the same exact underwriting standards. The only difference is the Feds are in it up to their neck instead of private banks.
‘They are NOT loans written on today’s underwriting standards’
So a 2015-16 loan isn’t today’s standard?
Don’t drown in the bathtub rental watch.
“…but the signs that you would usually see if they are (high near-term defaults, strong volume of new home sales), are non-existent.”
As they were in 2006.
But how were those metrics looking by mid-2009, after the ravages of the Great Recession took their toll?
I realize this time is different, as the global central banking cartel has permanently inoculated the developed world economies against any and all future recessions.
3% down payment mortgages are are the majority of new mortgages since 2008. As we all know, 3% DP is the very definition of subprime.
blah blah blah. yawn.
Show me a mortgage where the monthly payment is less than fully-amortized PITI, i.e. an I/O or neg-am. I have asked that question multiple times and the only answer I’ve gotten is “Hey Donk.”
The only thing here that’s new is allowing multiple unrelated incomes to contribute to the mortgage approval. I’d be interested to see just how many apps they get for that.
When I first read the word subprime in October 2004, I had to look it up. Before the big beginning of the subprime boom in 2003, subprime was known to default around 14% of the time. It was reserved for people like veterans. Sure, they will default way higher than acceptable but these people have earned it and the government will eat the losses in light of circumstances. It was around 1% of the market. When subprime moves into the regular market, it’s an attempt to juice it or gain market share, same result. In 2003, the attempt to juice the markets was a sign they were running out of borrowers. Prime lending dropped like a rock in 2003.
Look at the FAQ PDF on this page:
https://www.fanniemae.com/singlefamily/homeready
Pedal to the metal, Mel said last December when this was launched.
You are very much mistaken on the default rate for VA/GI Bill loans, it is about 2% and lower than that of prime loans…subprime is another story entirely.
http://www.military.com/money/va-loans/home-purchase/va-loans-have-lowest-foreclosure-rate.html
I didn’t say VA loans default 14% of the time. I said subprime did prior to the bubble. I doubt all VA loans are subprime. They used to include stuff like USDA loans which are specifically targeted to be subprime (help out the rural folks, ya know).
I don’t know the date of this article, but how could you default right now when people are camping out for condos and writing love letters to sellers in flyover country? There is this from the link:
“A key contributor to VA retaining the lowest foreclosure rate over the last five years is its loan servicing efforts. VA and its partnering loan servicers review all home loans during default to ensure that all appropriate home retention options have been explored.”
“This information is yet another sign that most veterans, with a little bit of assistance where needed, are responsible, hard working, and continue to make strong contributions to the nation.”
Sounds like a really rigorous loan program.
Even if you didn’t hear the word subprime before 2004, loans to borrowers with poor credit (sub-prime credit) were made before 2004.
‘loans to borrowers with poor credit (sub-prime credit) were made before 2004′
Yeah, I know. At the time subprime wasn’t a known word. Web searches were sparse.
Saturday, December 11, 2004
Subprime Lending Surges
Pricing bubbles often end in a parabolic rise, which we probably saw last year. It is no surprise that what is holding up the market now is lending to so-called subprime borrowers. I view this as bad news for this market as these folks will be in financial trouble even faster. Consider that the risk to mortgage lenders increases, suggesting some desperation for borrowers. “Overall, new originations of subprime mortgages totaled an estimated $375 billion through the end of September, a figure that marked a 63 percent year-to-date rise. Putting that number into perspective, one out of every six new residential mortgages made this year has gone to a credit-impaired”..borrower.
http://thehousingbubble.blogspot.com/2004/12/subprime-lending-surges.html
And we’ve responded multiple times Donk.
Every mortgage out there is subprime/neg-am considering the buyer is underwater from the very beginning. Point to one mortgage made in the last 16 years where the Debtor can break even. And you can’t break even either.
You’re all underwater and sinking.
‘Non-Prime is a term for loan types that do not fit into the restraints of government lending standards known as Prime, Agency, or A-Paper Lending and defined as Qualified Mortgages.’
‘Non-Prime loans also known as temporary or fixer loans, for borrowers who are on their way to Prime but need a little help before they qualify. Non-Prime loans characteristically are made to borrowers who have had a past credit event or events in the form of Foreclosure(s), Bankruptcy(ies), Short Sale(s), late payment(s), collection(s), charge-off(s), etcetera. Additionally a borrower seeking a Non-Prime loan can use alternative documentation to qualify in form of Bank Statements, Liquid assets, and other forms of income not typically accepted by government lending criteria. Non-Prime loans usually have increased rates of interest and costs for providing access to capital while providing the ability to participate in the economy and housing market. Non-Prime loans should only be looked at as a temporary solution to an immediate need.’
‘At CSC we realize not everyone has perfect credit and we understand life happens. Additionally not everyone can document their income in the narrow definition that government loans allow. CSC allows borrowers with a rougher than usual credit history to qualify for loans with terms that are fair and meet government lending criteria for Ability-to-Repay and government fee limitations.’
Here’s one:
‘Alt-A Residential Rate Sheet & Matrix*:
Rates starting at 4.875%
90% LTV with Only 24 months seasoning from:
Foreclosure
Short Sale
Bankruptcy
No 4506T’s
Rates starting at 4.875%
Interest Only for Self Employed Borrowers
Bank Statements used for Income
$3,000,000 loan amounts
http://www.citadelservicing.com/programs/maggi-hybrid-arm
Outside Dodd Frank (ODF)
Wholesale Residential
No Income Verification Rate Sheet & Matrix:
No Reserves
Up To 75% LTV
$2,000,000 loan amounts
Interest Only payment available
No Pre Payment Penalties
State Income for 1 – 4 unit properties:
Investment
Business purpose O/O
Foreign Nationals
Cross Collateralization
Fix & Flip
http://www.citadelservicing.com/programs/outside-dodd-frank-odf
Second Mortgage Rate Sheet & Matrix:
Up to 75% CLTV
Down to 600 Fico
No Seasoning on Short Sales
One Year Seasoning for Foreclosure’s & BK’s
50% DTI
30 Year Amortization 7/1 Hybrid Arm
15 Year Fixed
No Balloons
Up to $1 million Combined Loan Balance
http://www.citadelservicing.com/programs/2nd-mortgage
NOPE.
I asked for loans where the monthly payment is less than full PITI.
These mortgages that you posted are all ARM mortgages. Sure, they’re playing games with down payment and FICO (look at the charts), just as they always have. But even if the interest rate changes, you are STILL paying the full PITI every month, for whatever the interest rate is.
[and these ARMs are not for the masses. They all require either a igh FICO, a high down payment, or a high interest rate, or some combination. And a financial reaming for all. No strawberry pickers needs apply.]
Wrong-O Donk.
These low down payment 125% financing mortgages are available widespread and have been since 2001.
It’s easier to qualify for these loans that to get into many rentals. People with ‘qualifications’ like this would not be able to get an apartment in 95% of the complexes here in N. Texas. But they can get enormous loans to buy houses.
What the hell is going on?
The government has nationalized the mortgage finance market by buying about 97% of the new mortgages generated in the US since 2008. (p. 9) This pushes virtually all the risk of default onto the taxpayer while privatizing the profit.
So what will a housing slowdown look like this time? Less investor involvement, more defaults resulting in more US debt.
It takes many years of patient, relentless work, and a lot of time grooming politicians and regulators, to get a business model where someone else takes the risk and you get the profit. And here we are.
“This pushes virtually all the risk of default onto the taxpayer while privatizing the profit.”
And of course said taxpayer will need more bailing out when the current government guarantee scheme goes sideways.
‘In Austin their new 5,000-square-foot home on half an acre with a swimming pool cost $740,000′
They saw you coming a mile away, sucker.
‘More than half of Turner’s buyers hail from outside of the state, he said. Turner said there’s no reason to think out-of-state money won’t continue to support rising home values as long as buyers in expensive markets, such as California, can sell homes there and replace them at a fraction of the cost in the Treasure Valley. ‘Maybe prices are higher than what we’re used to, but for those buyers, the cost of living is still a fraction of where they’re coming from. That’s why I think it’s sustainable’
‘newcomers often arrive in Bend with cash on hand from the sale of their property in Seattle, Portland or Southern California’
‘In coastal Grays Harbor County, home costs are now “only” $141,000 — but that’s way up from $88,000 four years ago. It’s among the regions seeing soaring housing costs despite remaining fairly economically depressed: The unemployment rate in Grays Harbor is 8.3 percent, third worst in the state and nearly double that of King County’s.’
‘getting 10 or more offers on houses in Seattle, creating bidding wars that drive up prices. ‘I thought, ‘I hope it never comes up to Bellingham,’?’ Miller said. Now, ‘It’s starting to come up here.’
‘the definition of ‘affordable’ for such real estate push $250,000. ‘Between $200,000 and $225,000 is hot right now,’ she said. ‘Prices have been going up really rapidly and demand is huge.’
Now that we have equity locusts combing out over Michigan, Oregon, Idaho, Washington and Texas, is it really different this time?
“Just in the last few years, Washington has zoomed up the list of priciest states in the nation. ‘There’s no reason to believe that this is going to stop anytime soon,’ said Peter Orser, director of the University of Washington’s Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies.”
_____________________________/
Um, actually there are a lot of reasons to believe that it is going to stop soon. How we turned selling real estate into an academic discipline perplexes me. Why doesn’t UW establish a Center for Tulip Studies?
From one overpriced market to another…
“In Austin their new 5,000-square-foot home on half an acre with a swimming pool cost $740,000″
I bet the Texas tax assessor has a surprise for these suckers.
That million in profit will cover the 15k a year in taxes for quite a while.
Long ago somebody figured out that over 3,500 square feet, you pretty much have to have a maid.
‘If you have a capital gain from the sale of your main home, you may qualify to exclude up to $250,000 of that gain from your income. You may qualify to exclude up to $500,000 of that gain if you file a joint return with your spouse.’
It will have to since the average salary in TX is about $14k/year! 😭
Wait until they get their first tax bill from Travis county.
“Brexit Is Also A Repudiation Of EU Global Warming Mandates”
“‘By large majorities, voters who saw multiculturalism, feminism, the Green movement, globalisation and immigration as forces for good voted to remain in the EU; those who saw them as a force for ill voted by even larger majorities to leave,’ Ashcroft wrote.”
http://dailycaller.com/2016/06/24/brexit-is-also-a-repudiation-of-eu-global-warming-mandates/#ixzz4Cm1hJ8mg
I was giving this whole “exit” thing some thought after “Texit” was mentioned. It’s quite healthy, actually. Had Germany broken up after WW2, they wouldn’t have been a target for shaming and Hitler memes.
That’s why it would be a good idea for the US. If it breaks up, who do you blame for slavery, Native American dispossession, and stuff like that?
It would certainly put an end to Social Security and FSA issues. Poof!
Texas really does need to go. Slap a 10 gallon hat on Trump and make him Fuherer, y’all.
If it goes, I hope it takes Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida with it. It’d be fun to lock up those ports and watch the parasites scatter.
I’d be honored to have real Texans allow me to join them. In my years of doing business on line part time with people from all over the country, Texans have been my best customers, for the most part. Gracious, well spoken, well mannered and honorable. They are not to be confused with some of their politicians.
Combo et al…..
This well worth a read…..
Excerpts:
“Corrupt elites always try to persuade people to continue to submit to their dominance in exchange for protection from forces that are even worse. That’s their game. But at some point, they themselves, and their prevailing order, become so destructive, so deceitful, so toxic, that their victims are willing to gamble that the alternatives will not be worse, or at least, they decide to embrace the satisfaction of spitting in the faces of those who have displayed nothing but contempt and condescension for them.”
And this….
“Obviously, those who are the target of this anti-establishment rage — political, economic, and media elites — are desperate to exonerate themselves, to demonstrate that they bear no responsibility for the suffering masses that are now refusing to be compliant and silent. The easiest course to achieve that goal is simply to demonize those with little power, wealth, or possibility as stupid and racist: This is only happening because they are primitive and ignorant and hateful, not because they have any legitimate grievances or because I or my friends or my elite institutions have done anything wrong.”
https://theintercept.com/2016/06/25/brexit-is-only-the-latest-proof-of-the-insularity-and-failure-of-western-establishment-institutions/
“The people have always some champion whom they set over them and nurse into greatness… This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when he first appears he is a protector.” —Plato
That was an excellent piece from Greenwald.
The Striking Price
Post-Brexit: Blackmailing Central Banks Comes Next
Thanks to Brexit, EU nations will threaten to leave the union, argues Thomas Peterffy. Plus, “anger trades.”
By Steven M. Sears
June 24, 2016
Photo: Martin Leissl/Bloomberg
As global markets tremble after Britain’s unexpected vote to exit the European Union, investors need to contemplate what will happen after Brexit. Thomas Peterffy, chairman of global trading firm Interactive Brokers (ticker: IBKR ), expects that EU nations will try to blackmail the European Central bank.
The idea, though unformed, is already spreading across the markets. Just yesterday, a veteran specialist at the New York Stock Exchange e-mailed around a list of post-Brexit puns in anticipation of other nations’ rebelling against the EU. On his list: Grexit; Departugal; Italeave; Czechout; Oustria; Finish; Slovakout; Latervia; Byegium.
Of course, the specialist had no special knowledge of political upheaval, and was simply engaging in one of Wall Street’s favorite pastimes of wordplay. But what began as a joke has become reality. The global establishment was soundly trounced yesterday when England voted to exit the EU. People are pissed off, and this likely morphs into a political contagion.
…
someone has to pay for the PIIGS
Not GB…
They are already paying….huge amounts and probably for an extended period. It’s a lose/lose!
If each country in the EU held a referendum, how many would vote to remain? In the future, referenda on membership probably won’t be allowed, for that reason.
“…how many would vote to remain?”
Wouldn’t that depend on citizens’ perceptions of whether EU membership made them better or worse off than they were as a sovereign state?
I have a great idea: What if the EU ministers in Brussels changed the rules of the game to make the citizens in their member nations feel enriched instead of oppressed? Perhaps they could rig the game in favor of Stayers over Leavers…
‘Orange County homebuilders had their best May in a decade with 421 new-home sales. That was up 49 percent in a year and almost 12 percent of all home purchases’
I was told they couldn’t build houses anymore in California.
They build plenty… typically on the best farmland in the world.
The best farmland in the world isn’t drought stricken desert scrub transformed through amendments and reservoir irrigation.
That’s where the vegetables come from, like it or not. You can’t grow them without that sunshine…
http://www.dof.ca.gov/HTML/FS_DATA/LatestEconData/FS_Construction.htm
Building? Yes.
Building enough? No.
Bubble? Yes.
Sustainable? No.
Wife of nation’s lowest-paid governor takes waitressing job
Marina Villeneuve, Associated Press
Saturday, June 25, 2016
BOOTHBAY HARBOR, Maine (AP) — The waitress bounded with a cup of chowder and a plate of fish and broccoli.
It was Ann LePage’s first double shift at McSeagull’s, a bustling restaurant touting double-wrapped bacon scallops and views of Boothbay Harbor.
The wife of Maine Republican Gov. Paul LePage had kept a low profile for the first few weeks of her summer job. But then her husband told a crowd at a recent town hall that his wife took a job to “supplement” his $70,000 salary, the lowest of any U.S. governor.
The LePages live with their dog, a Jack Russell terrier mix named Veto, in the Augusta governor’s mansion and bought a $215,000 Boothbay home two years ago. The governor recently tried but failed to increase his successor’s salary to $150,000, above the nearly $135,000 average for all 50 state governors in 2015.
Ann LePage said being a waitress is “something I’ve always, always wanted to do.”
Her daughter Lauren made $28 an hour last summer at McSeagull’s. LePage said she spent years taking care of her mother, who long suffered from scleroderma and passed away in October.
Now it’s time to follow through on her interest, LePage said, adding: “I know she’d be proud of me.”
Wearing a black McSeagull’s T-shirt and sneakers with pink shoelaces, LePage greeted customers with an easy: “Hey, how are you?”
LePage, who’s saving up for a Toyota RAV4, works three days a week, and is asking for more shifts.
“Because of who I am and who I’m married to, I want to work extra hard just so I can show them I can do the job,” she said.
She doesn’t tell customers, or co-workers, who she is unless they ask.
But when a reporter revealed her identity Thursday, the news just confirmed a customer’s inklings.
“I knew, that’s why I kept staring!” exclaimed Nina Stoddard, of Bridgton, a Republican.
She later wondered: “I mean, is she really here just making money?”
Her friend Laurie Green, of Casco, said she loved it.
“I really hate a lot of our politicians nowadays that have the wealth, the money,” said Green, an unaffiliated voter. “They have no clue what the average person out in the world is doing.”
Stoddard agreed and suggested LePage herself should run for office: “It’s the best of Maine, the best of who we are. Two feet on the ground.”
Fauxahontus Warren, the so-faux “champion of the middle class, throws in with the epitome of corrupt crony capitalism and everything that is destroying the middle class, Hillary Clinton.
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-clinton-to-test-populist-economic-message-with-warren-in-ohio-2016-6
We have a self-professed billionaire running against a near billionaire.
Screw over the 99% enough, and eventually you’ll get a reaction.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-27/deutsche-bank-theres-no-escaping-fact-class-war
Remember douche bank was avoiding nc on a bathroom buddy complaint,as if they were going anywhere
Germany and France must be in a panic as they’re the ones left to pay for pigs
Ray K:
See my post in response to combo above. I think it confirms your sentiments exactly.
CNN’s Amanpour: Brexit A Victory for ‘Xenophobia,’ a Blow to the ‘Liberal World Order’
Steve Watson - June 27, 2016
While reporting on Brexit CNN’s Amanpour said it was a victory for “xenophobia” and a blow to the “liberal world order” in the west since World War II.
Amanpour said, ‘What we are hearing, certainly from people worried who are worried precisely about this, is that they feel that that this marks a victory for the kind of economic nationalism…for the kind of Xenophobia that will imperil liberal world order’ that has guaranteed western property and stability since World War II.”
What else would you expect a mouthpiece for the Oligopoly-owned media to say?
It’s embarrassing how the left is embracing neoliberal institutions, whose intention is to reduce almost all of us to economic serfdom, on diversity and inclusion grounds. Marx would be entertained.
SF homeless problem looks the same as it did 20 years ago:
” Today, despite the efforts of six mayoral administrations dating back to Dianne Feinstein, homelessness is stamped into the city so deeply it’s become a defining characteristic.
San Francisco initially responded by providing temporary, spartan shelters. Now, it permanently houses thousands of people salvaged from the streets through multimillion-dollar residential and counseling programs. But still, the city remains home to sprawling tent cities, junkies squatting on blankets shooting heroin, and all manner of anguished destitute people and beggars holding out hands.
The city’s last official count, in 2015, put the adult homeless population at 6,686, though many officials and advocates for homeless people say the number is much higher.
Whatever the case, homelessness in San Francisco doesn’t look much different than it did 10 years ago. Or 20.”
http://projects.sfchronicle.com/sf-homeless/overview/
Decimate the productive economy and make housing unaffordable due to speculative excesses, and increased homelessness is a predictable result. Heckova job, Janet.
Meanwhile, the house of cards that is the Anglo-American banking system is looking mighty shaky.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/26/the-financial-industry-fallout-from-brexit-is-about-to-get-a-who/
1978 my county found 3 homeless
now 3500? it’s an industry
Homelessness, etc. is not only endemic in the city (SF), it’s the entire Bay area!!
Entire west coast…
Also, I wonder why Las Vegas isn’t on their chart? It’s crazy how many homeless people there are all across the valley.
True. My daughter and I were in the car (Trop and Spencer), windows open and a guy appeared asking for money. Since he was so close to my daughter I grabbed for my bag and practically threw money at him. He was so happy he came halfway into the car and gave my daughter the biggest hug (happy, not pervy). She was a bit freaked out. We talked a little and he did seem like a decent guy down on his luck.
No “pent-up demand” happening here:
“About 22% of people ages 45 to 59 said they have no retirement savings or pension, according to a recent Federal Reserve study. And only about half of private-sector workers participate in a retirement savings plan, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show.
Many workers are worried about just making it to the next paycheck, let alone saving for retirement, particularly after the financial hit from the Great Recession. About 46% of adults in the Fed survey said they did not have enough saved to cover a $400 emergency expense.”
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-retirement-savings-plans-20160627-snap-story.html
Wall Street Journal subscriber paywall article reports that:
“Restaurant visit growth has completely stalled in the last three months, signaling that consumers, jittery over economic uncertainties, are retrenching.”
All that money being sucked into overpriced housing had to come from somewhere.
I was thinking about this in regard to the luxury apartment/condo thing. I’ve lived a few times in towns/cities with tons of great places to go out and eat, have a craft beer, etc. I always quickly discovered eating out a lot will drain ones wallet in no time. I recently watched a show on food in New York. This little hole in the wall was really proud of itself that they could serve a few plates of chow for under 50 bucks. And they had a great wine list!
What good is paying a bunch of money to live near these places if you aren’t loaded? Grocery store? Ooops!
Instead of stopping at a restaurant in Idaho Springs yesterday on our way back from the mountains, my woman got a bag of Cheetos and a Cherry Coke.
She’s a keeper….
“my woman got a bag of Cheetos and a Cherry Coke.”
The 3 Cs
A well balanced meal!
This morning here in California as I was driving home from the gym I noticed a Coca Cola big rig truck proudly half covered with its self-congratulations on being a hybrid or CNG truck (I forgot which). So while they deliver diabetes to you, you can at least be assured they are environmentally correct.
Geesh.
(I forgot which)…….
Drinking too much product??
remember to save the best ones for the Cheetos Museum!!
“…my woman got a bag of Cheetos and a Cherry Coke.”
Google a few “before-n-after” shots of Nicole Eggert.
Goon, may you get everything you deserve.
Anti-Semitic.
Fortunately, I don’t enjoy eating out. I never have.
I imagine that nowadays, restaurant patrons get to watch/listen to people talk on their cell phones at the table, text and play endless games on their pads.
No thanks.
You just described the behavior of millennials at every bar in downtown Denver.
At least you don’t have to chase them off your lawn.
Check out this narrative:
Fear, loathing and firearms: sensory overload inside the NRA’s Mall of Death
Guns and wall-to-wall star-spangled patriotism are the National Rifle Association’s way of projecting a rugged image of strength to its members, but they also point to the steady current of hysteria throughout American history
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/25/nra-annual-meeting-guns-american-dream-hunter-s-thompson
Best. Narrative. Ever.
Interesting thing… The Megatouch bartop game machine company Merit Industries went out of business because bar patrons just play games on their tablets and phones now.
” always quickly discovered eating out a lot will drain ones wallet in no time. “
Truth!
Breakfast and lunch savings per weekday for me the last six months: $15
“And they had a great wine list!”
Savings on wine per day the last six months: $15 (minimum)
$30 per weekday for 130 days is $3900.
Ben Jones: What good is paying a bunch of money to live near these places if you aren’t loaded?
Deflation (or stagflation).
The sun still shines on everyone, rich or poor. 300 days/year…
Hope and change:
“The amount that people with private insurance still had to pay for hospital visits grew 37 percent from 2009 to 2013, a study finds. And it’s probably still going up.
The study, conducted by the University of Michigan and published today in JAMA Internal Medicine, adds to a growing body of evidence that suggests employers are using high-deductible plans to keep premium costs down.
It found that out-of-pocket costs increased 6.5 percent a year, on average, as overall health spending grew 2.9 percent annually. The average out-of-pocket cost of hospitalization was more than $1,000 over the five-year period, largely because of charges patients might not be aware of.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-27/even-with-private-insurance-out-of-pocket-costs-for-hospital-visits-shot-up-37
7 years of Obama and this is what you get:
“Frustrated Fort Lauderdale commissioners see a downtown homeless situation they’ve had little success improving for either the individuals in need of assistance or for visitors and residents who feel threatened by them.
The epicenter of the issue continues to be the city’s downtown Stranahan Park, a central gathering place for the homeless for years.
“My goal, my feeling is, we have to find different places to feed people and to address their social service needs and to give them bathrooms and showers,” Vice Mayor Dean Trantalis said during a commission goal-setting workshop Friday.
It’s a Catch-22 situation: Do charitable groups bring food and other items to Stranahan Park because that’s where the homeless gather, or do the homeless gather there because that’s where they can get handouts? The park at Broward Boulevard and Andrews Avenue is also next door to the Main Library, which has public restrooms and computers the homeless use.”
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/broward-politics-blog/fl-lauderdale-homeless-frustration-20160627-story.html#nt=oft12aH-1gp5
When will Yellen the Felon escalate the Fed’s swindles against the 99% by announcing NIRP and QE4?
Not soon enough!
Take your money out of the bank now, before it’s too late.
The Brexit gives political cover, if the Fed wants to trot those things out. At the very least we won’t be seeing the interest rate increases so often facetiously alluded to, at least not this year.
Brexit: Establishment Freak Out
“There are two major forces driving discontent: Deteriorating economic prospects for majorities, and challenges to traditional cultural hierarchies. The left plays on the former while the right plays on the latter. The right has a coherent program regarding the latter with broad appeal among older ethnic majorities: Re-segregation and restoration of white skin privileges. But the right has no coherent economic program besides blaming ethnic “others.”
The left has a coherent critique of neoliberal economics, and offers some useful alternatives: Stop catering to finance and subject it to competent regulation. Stop pointless fiscal austerity and provide needed fiscal stimulus. And stop dismantling, and rebuild the welfare state. Moreover, this program has broad appeal among the discontented.
But the left has not been able to compete successfully with the right regarding the second source of discontent. If progressive groups campaign for a principled defense of multiculturalism and protecting immigrant rights, they win support from ethnic minorities and some among the young, but they alienate older, majoritarian communities in economic distress. Moreover, the dilemma for the left is even worse. Because the truth is that until a left economic program is won and firmly in place, principled multiculturalism and defense of immigrant rights does further aggravate the economic distress of disadvantaged, majoritarian populations.”
http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/06/27/brexit-establishment-freak-out/
“principled multiculturalism”
My goodness, an oxymoron!
The globalists are starting to panic.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3662027/EU-stop-following-Britain-door-Merkel-warns-amid-market-fears-bloc-no-longer-governable-Brexit.html
I’m surprised they haven’t blamed the Brexit for bad breath and B.O.
And the heartbreak of psoriasis, lol
Hope and change:
“The number of homicides in May reached levels unseen during the administration of Mexico President Enrique Peña Nieto, and the fact that they are more widespread makes the trend increasingly difficult for authorities to reverse.
Mexico’s Executive Secretary of the National System of Public Security (Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública - SNSP) announced there were 1,746 homicides nationwide during the month of May, reported Milenio.
The previous high for murders under Peña Nieto was 1,726 in December 2012, the same month he was sworn in as president.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/mexico-hit-a-somber-milestone-2016-6
A guy I know down in Acapulco scoffs at Americans who stay here and not escape this financial disaster. I like my firearms too much to leave though.
And escape to Mexico’s even bigger financial disaster? I was reading a story about Acapulco and how pretty much all the locals are armed. And that there is a 70% vacancy rate at the hotels as Mexicans are shunning the place as a vacation destination.
Relatives tell me that Mexico City feels like a city under siege. Cops everywhere and soldiers too. Everyone knows someone who has been kidnapped and held for ransom. I’m surprised that the Mexodus isn’t at record levels.
That’s the deal. He’s not a Mexican national and I think that means he cannot own any guns. I think especially Americans cannot own guns there. I can’t figure that guy out, a gold bug and bitcoin bug who says America is collapsing so move to where you cannot defend yourself, by law.
Man - this makes Chicago look like a safe haven paradise.
It isn’t? I was told undocumented guns make everybody safer.
As far as narratives go, this one is pretty disturbing:
http://www.breitbart.com/texas/2016/06/26/graphic-executions-dismembered-corpses-terrorize-mexico-near-texas-border/
Another plug for the book “Gangster Warlords” by Ioan Grillo.
Got fundamental transformation?
“Labour head office ordered local Labour parties to put nothing about immigration on their referendum leaflets, despite warnings from West Midlands regional staff and MPs that the party seemed to be trying to lose the referendum by avoiding the subject, internal party emails passed to the Guardian show.
An email sent by the West Midlands Labour regional office pleading for the national party to change leaflets so as to counter the leave campaign’s arguments about immigration was rejected by the Labour policy team.
An official from head office explained the plan had been rejected: “I have spoken with the policy team and the view is that we do not want to be talking about immigration or sovereignty on our leaflets so we are not able to sign it off. Could you go back to them and ask them to have a rethink about content? The briefing pack which is attached has the core script.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/labour-hq-told-activists-to-avoid-immigration-issue-in-eu-campaign
“Many people are concerned about the number of people coming to Britain, particularly from eastern Europe. Leaving the EU and pulling up the drawbridge will not solve the problem in the long term. We need many of these people to do lower paid jobs.”…
The pyramid needs some people at the bottom to support the people at the top. It’s top-heavy with birth rates being down and people living longer. I was in Europe a few weeks ago and watched a German interview where the guy was saying they needed to bring in all these migrants to make the base of the pyramid larger.
They might be sorry they get what they wish for.
‘A client recently sold a house for $159,000 that two years ago would have been lucky to sell for $130,000′
My calculator show this is a 22% increase. Of course, incomes in Traverse City have almost certainly gone up that much with all the new telecommuting tech workers.
Boyne Highlands has some good skiing for the Midwest.
It’s all about retirement and second homes ‘up North’. Some things never change.
It is indeed a popular area to have a summer vacation home. The demographic that legitimately can afford such a thing is not growing.
‘More than half of Turner’s buyers hail from outside of the state, he said. Turner said there’s no reason to think out-of-state money won’t continue to support rising home values as long as buyers in expensive markets, such as California, can sell homes there and replace them at a fraction of the cost in the Treasure Valley. ‘Maybe prices are higher than what we’re used to, but for those buyers, the cost of living is still a fraction of where they’re coming from. That’s why I think it’s sustainable’
Did ‘out of state’ money save them from the last bubble? How about foreign capital during a recession?
But, again, is locking up interest rates of 3% for THIRTY YEARS a ‘good deal’ before the next move up begins? Lots of areas haven’t taken that 100% run up.
Debt Donkeys don’t care about a good deal.
Debt Donkey’s only care how much it’s gonna cost ‘em per month.
The poor donks. Poor poor donks.
I smell fear…is that you, Mr. Banker?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-27/its-fking-bloodbath-european-banking-stocks-collapse-uk-default-risk-spikes
I move that Social Security funds be put to use in shoring up failing banks so all the children of the world can be saved.
Is that a “pig stain on your fat chin?”
anyone have youtube on Juncker and EU staff when the Brexit vote came in?
EU=PU
Leftist Radicals Attack Media in Sacramento
Promise riots and more attacks in response to popularity of Donald Trump
Kurt Nimmo - June 27, 2016
In addition to attacking and assaulting permitted demonstrators in Sacramento on Sunday, leftist thugs from BAMN and Antifa targeted the media.
The Washington Post reported a “KCRA-TV reporter and his cameraman were caught in an altercation with protesters who shouted ‘no cameras’ as they tried to grab their equipment and shove them away from the crowd.”
Preventing the media from exercising the First Amendment is now a routine tactic. Radical “direct action” groups do not want people to see their unprovoked attacks and the violence used to shut down political enemies. The attackers wear balaclavas and ski masks in order to remain anonymous and avoid being identified and arrested for assault.
The left, including Bernie Sanders supporters, believe violence against “racists” (supporters of Donald Trump are included in this category) are legitimate targets. In San Diego, police stood by while thugs chanting “Bernie” assaulted people at a Trump rally. The mayor of San Diego and the corporate media blamed Trump supporters for the violence.
During a Trump event in Albuquerque, leftist activists attacked journalists and police horses. Infowars reporter Jakari Jackson was hit by a rock thrown by one of the demonstrators outside the event as police used tear gas to clear the mob.
“When confronted with the fact that the organizers of these melees are Bernie Sanders supporters, and representatives from Democrat-allied groups, like La Raza and MoveOn.org, the Democratic party establishment denies, denies, denies. They then condemn the violence with one hand, while their allies perpetuate it,” writes Tammy Bruce for TheWashington Times.
Groups involved in a disruption of a Trump event in Chicago include Black Lives Matter Chicago, MoveOn.org, La Raza Chicago, International ANSWER Chicago, SEIU Local 73, The Illinois Coalition of Immigrant and Refugee Rights.
Following Trump’s primary victory in Indiana, leftists and fellow travelers took to Twitter and promised riots if the candidate becomes president. Others called for his assassination.
“Such calls for violence are a direct violation of Twitter’s terms of service, however at press time all of these accounts are still active,” writes Lee Stranahan for Breitbart. “This is troubling given Twitter’s recent history of what appears to be a war on conservative media, including their unexplained de-verification of Breitbart tech editor Milo Yiannopoulos’s account.”
Leftists in the media have also called for violence. Earlier this month, Vox editor Emmett Rensin called for riots in response to Donald Trump rallies.
These people deserve to live in the Venezuela they are creating.
BTW it’s almost noon eastern time, expect the paid Soros brigade to start replying to any post questioning the SJW script with their sponsored counter-narrative.
Gold is so close, within five percent of the long term breakout, that once it hits that, it’s going to be a meltdown for the stock market and off to the moon for gold.
My limits on stock buys are 40% of their peaks.i just added such a limit on 100 shares of WFM at $20. Next pick when I get the cash added to the brokerage will be 100 shares of AAL at $20.
I look forward to when brokerages allow people to buy stocks with Bitcoin. I would prefer to park my funds in Bitcoin while waiting for limits to hit than to park it in Fiat.
http://www.livebitcoinnews.com/cnbc-news-gets-educated-on-why-bitcoin-is-a-safe-haven/
Gerald Walpin once locked-antlers with Obama
***
Gerald Walpin, the inspector general who was at the center of controversy in 2009 when he was fired by the White House amid an investigation of an Obama friend, died today. He was 84.
Walpin’s son-in-law, Allan Tananbaum, said Walpin was struck by a car while crossing a street in Manhattan.
Walpin was fired in June 2009 for his investigation of the misuse of money in AmeriCorps, the service organization that was part of the Corporation for National and Community Service, where Walpin served as inspector general. The investigation focused on Kevin Johnson, the former NBA star who became mayor of Sacramento, Calif., and was a prominent Obama supporter.
Johnson founded a school called St. Hope, which received about $850,000 in AmeriCorps grants.Walpin discovered that Johnson and St. Hope had failed to use the federal dollars they received for the purposes specified in the grant and had also, as Walpin told me in an interview at the time, used federally funded AmeriCorps staff for, among other things, “driving [Johnson] to personal appointments, washing his car and running personal errands.”
Walpin recommended that Johnson and St. Hope be barred from receiving future federal funds.
It turned out to be an enormously controversial recommendation. As Walpin finished his probe, Johnson was elected mayor of Sacramento. If Johnson had been barred from receiving federal grant money, the city might not have been able to receive a share of the billions of dollars in federal stimulus money being handed out by the Obama administration.
There was enormous pressure on Walpin to back off. He didn’t. On June 10, Walpin received a call from a White House lawyer. “He said, ‘Mr. Walpin, the president wants me to tell you that he really appreciates your service, but it’s time to move on,’” Walpin recalled to me later. “[He] said, ‘You can either resign, or I’ll tell you that we’ll have to terminate you.’”
Walpin declined to resign and was fired on the spot. His firing was a violation of rules regarding the dismissal of inspectors general.
Charles Grassley, the Iowa Republican senator who has long been a champion of inspectors general, took up Walpin’s case and demanded information from the White House. Not much cooperation was forthcoming. Although some Democrats agreed that Walpin had been wrongfully fired, the White House defended its decision and claimed Walpin, who was then 78, was too “confused” to handle his duties.
He never seemed confused to me. I reported at length on the Walpin case, and spoke to him many times. Walpin was an extraordinarily determined man, and he placed enormous value on integrity in government. If he found wrongdoing, he was going to pursue it until it was made right. That became a problem when the wrongdoer was a White House friend.
Gerald Walpin was born in 1931 in New York City. He graduated from City College of New York in 1952 and in 1955 received a law degree from Yale.
He clerked for two federal judges, served in the Air Force from 1957-60, served in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York (where he prosecuted, among others, Roy Cohn) and for more than 40 years was a partner at Rosenman & Colin, later Katten Muchin Rosenman.
Walpin leaves behind a wife, Sheila — next April would have been their 60th wedding anniversary — three children, and six grandchildren.
From the BBC:
Six ways Brexit could hit Americans
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36625229
5. Property boom
The state of the UK economy is volatile, so American property is looking like a very safe investment right now.
“Any time there is a recession in significant markets such as London, it bodes well for the US,” international real estate lawyer and consultant Edward Mermelstein told the BBC.
“Investment will be attracted to a safe haven, and there’s no safer location than the US market… the US will be the beneficiary of continued foreign investment due to the uncertainty created by this vote.”
Americans looking to buy property should expect prices to rise in the next year - making right now a better time to buy rather than waiting.
But in the meantime, as the Washington Post pointed out, current mortgage rates will continue to be at an all-time low as foreign investors seek US government debt, pulling down interest rates.
Linked from New York Magazine:
“Four years after signing a deal for its 298 Bedford Avenue space, Whole Foods’ giant glass box of a Williamsburg grocery store will open at 9 a.m. on July 26.”
http://www.grubstreet.com/2016/06/whole-foods-williamsburg-opening-july.html
Salon leads with this Amanda Marcotte piece:
Pro-choice victory: The Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law, further shredding the religious right
The Supreme Court handed feminists a robust victory, destroying the right’s entire strategy to nix abortion rights
http://www.salon.com/2016/06/27/pro_choice_victory_the_supreme_court_strikes_down_texas_abortion_law_further_shredding_the_religious_right/
And while you’re all cueing up Alice Cooper’s “Dead Babies” on the turntable, consider that responsible use of birth control is the most effective way to prevent abortion.
From the Mercury News article on California:
“‘A lot of buyers are really becoming very picky,’ Swartz said. ‘The market has changed. … It used to be, ‘How much do I have to pay to make sure I get this house?’ Now it’s, ‘Well, what do I really have to offer? Because I don’t want to overpay.’”
“Other agents agreed that the market has shifted in recent weeks…”
I like how they say ‘it used to be that’ as though overpaying for housing was something traditional that now has changed.
And since they say they’ve only noticed this change in recent weeks and are already commenting on it, it must be fairly dramatic and obvious for them not to decide it’s just temporary.
‘How much do I have to pay to make sure I get this house?’
I do this all the time. Buying shoes, burgers, cars.
BTW, given the stock markets importance to this areas housing market, I doubt the mood is getting any better:
‘David Drummond has a simple explanation for why Alphabet Inc., one of the more acquisitive technology companies, has been sitting on its hands for more than a year. “Have you seen the valuations?” Drummond, the corporate development chief for Google’s parent company, said in an interview after the Alphabet annual shareholder meeting June 8.’
“You are seeing changes in the valuations of unicorns and decacorns,” Drummond said, referring to startups worth more than $1 billion and $10 billion respectively. “It’s not all up and to the right now.”
‘A flood of money from venture capital firms, hedge funds and mutual funds in recent years pushed startup valuations beyond what many public acquirers were willing to pay. Annual U.S. VC funding more than doubled to $63 billion from 2013 through 2015. That pushed the median valuation of startup financing rounds to $68 million in the third quarter of 2015 from $17 million at the start of 2013, venture capitalist Mark Suster estimates. The unicorn herd has grown from 13 at the start of 2013 to more than 150, according to research firm CB Insights.’
‘In the first quarter, there were 14 down rounds or exits below the previous financing valuations. In the fourth quarter of 2015, there were 16. That compares to six and seven such events in the previous two quarters, according to CB Insights.’
‘Gilt Groupe, once worth more than $1 billion, sold to Hudson’s Bay Co. for $250 million earlier this year. Yodle, once valued at $600 million, was purchased for half that in February. Good Technology sold for $425 million in September, after getting a $1.1 billion valuation previously.’
‘Falling valuations present startup founders with difficult choices: They will have to reduce their cash burn and try to grow to earn back a richer valuation, accept a down round or complex, onerous new financing terms, or consider acquisition offers, Deeter explained.’
“There’s been a little denial, just like at the start of drug addiction treatment programs,” he said.’
How much do I have to pay to make sure I get your puddle watching, money losing, band of over-paid skinny jeans?
Drummond isn’t stupid, and from what I hear when I speak to VC folks, valuations are pretty damn high.
One thing that needs to be thrown into the mix, however, is that companies are waiting a lot longer before going public today. They are much more mature companies, so thinking about billion dollar private tech companies in today’s environment is different than thinking about billion dollar private companies pre-SOX.
When Miscrosoft went public, it’s revenues for the prior year were $140MM (1985 dollars = $312MM today).
When Amazon went public, it’s revenues for the prior year were about $64MM (1997 dollars = $96MM today).
Post SOX, when Google went public, it’s revenues were approximately $1.5B (2003 dollars = $2.0B today).
Facebook’s revenues were $3.7B in 2011 when they went public.
In other words, some companies may be unicorns because they actually are worth over a billion, are just waiting longer to go public, and have lots of growth potential (Palantir, Space X, DocuSign).
Others however, even if they are justified as billion dollar companies could be wildly overvalued (Uber, Lyft, WeWork, AirBNB, SnapChat, etc.)
And other companies billion dollar valuations and are actually worthless…ahem…Theranos (DraftKings? Instacart?).
I think those in category one (high and justifiable valuations) are the exception, not the rule.
Speaking of stocks, IIRC the S&P 500 is near support.
I’m a little surprised at the financial/political reaction to Da Meddle Fanger. I’ve seen it before, but usually when they want a bail-out or something. More often we see reassurances, it’ll be OK kinda thing. When the Serious People start getting frantic it makes me wonder what’s up. It’s like they are trying to punish everybody, or scare them.
‘The UK’s decision to leave the European Union will lead to an economic crisis more severe than what the world faced in 2008, according to legendary investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.’
“2008 was bad because of debt. The debt all over the world is much, much higher now. Stocks in the US, for instance, have been going sideways for 18 months to 24 months. That’s called a distribution by many people. When you have distribution for a year and a half, it usually leads to bad things,’ he said on Yahoo Finance.”
I had to look it up:
‘If fund managers are getting out of the stock market and a correction is imminent, how can individual investors spot this ominous trend? The answer, in a word, is distribution.’
‘That’s the name on Wall Street for heavier-than-usual selling of stocks. When distribution is expanding at a fast pace, it’s a solid sign that the biggest investors are shifting out of stocks into other types of investments, or cash.’
‘Fund managers are usually silent about those big decisions, and in public they may even be talking up stocks. But any investor can detect distribution by studying a price-and-volume chart of the major indexes.’
‘Specifically, distribution occurs when the Nasdaq or S&P 500 falls significantly in higher volume than the prior session. Of course, an occasional decline in higher volume can happen even during the strongest markets.
‘The tricky part is knowing how many distribution days represent a real danger to the market. From studying market cycles over many decades, we can conclude that usually five to six clear-cut distribution days over a five-week period is the critical level. If that happens, usually a market top is in the works.’
‘Distribution days can occur even as the major indexes are still climbing to new highs.’
‘Also, there’s an insidious form of distribution known as stalling. That’s when a main index makes little price progress in higher volume. Often, the index closes low in its daily price range as buyers walk away from the market in the final hours.’
‘The precise characteristics of stalling-type distribution are too complex to discuss here…In some cases, heavy distribution does not result in a market peak. Usually, that’s when the leading stocks hold up well amid broad selling, which can be taken as a sign that savvy institutions haven’t totally bailed out on stocks.’
I think those who play the game on a daily basis are relishing the turmoil.
I had several discussions over the weekend with people who were doing lots of hand wringing over Brexit…about how big a deal it was.
When I challenged them about it, they said “well, free trade is a really big deal”. So the UK needs to renegotiate trade agreements, big deal. If trade is mutually beneficial, there will be a reason for the EU/UK to strike a new deal (as well as UK with the rest of the world), but it will take time.
Whose risk is that? Mainly the UK’s.
I think an underappreciated piece to all this is the number of EU-centric businesses that located in the UK (instead of other parts of the EU)…will they stay in the UK? Or move somewhere else?
‘Corporate America is curbing its appetite for its own stock, a potentially foreboding sign for the stock market, according to TrimTabs Investment Research on Monday. U.S. companies have announced $291.7 billion worth of buybacks so far this year, about one third lower than the $432 billion announced for the same period last year, TrimTabs said.’
‘June was on pace to be the slowest month of the year, with only $11.8 billion worth of buyback announcements through Friday. “Corporate America announced $2.8 trillion in stock buybacks in the past five years, and these buybacks have provided a key source of fuel for the bull market,” said David Santschi, chief executive officer of TrimTabs. “Corporate actions this year suggest this support is going to diminish.”
‘Buybacks also can prop up company earnings, as lowered share counts boost earnings per share, a closely followed metric. A fall in repurchases could increase price-to-earnings ratios, making the stocks look more expensive.’
‘U.S. companies announced about $182 billion in buybacks in the first quarter, according to Birinyi Associates research, putting buybacks on pace for their weakest year since 2012.’
This was another “flood of money” like the VC stuff and junk bonds. Man, these money floods have weird outcomes.
‘Spiceworks, the IT software and networking company that has been among Austin’s fastest-growing and best-funded startups, announced that it will layoff 12 percent of its staff. Jay Hallberg, CEO and co-founder of Spiceworks, announced the layoffs in a blog post Wednesday evening. He offered no details on the timing of the layoffs, how many people it impacts or what types of positions will be eliminated.’
“Today is the most difficult day in our 10 year history - we’ve had to make the decision to let go nearly 12 percent of our workforce,” he wrote. “This decision did not come lightly.”
‘Last year, the company moved into a new office on Loop 360 south of the Pennybacker Bridge. It also has an office in London. It’s unclear if any layoffs will happen there.. The Austin Business Journal reports that the company employed 390 people last year and had plans to add 100 more workers.’
‘Troubled unicorn startup Zenefits continues to struggle, and its CEO David Sacks announced on Tuesday that more than 100 employees will be laid off and more bought out.’
‘This is the second round of layoffs since cofounder Parker Conrad resigned in February and Sacks took over. That round cut 250 employees, almost all in sales. Today’s layoffs will result in 106 “job eliminations” according to an email Sacks sent to the entire Zenefits staff.’
‘Sacks also offered all other employees who joined before Conrad’s ousting a two-month severance package as a voluntary buyout. “I recognize that the new Zenefits may be a very different company than the one many of you joined,” Sacks wrote. “And if you are not motivated by our mission to make entrepreneurship easier, or if you do not agree with the new company values, or if your role has changed in ways that you cannot support, then you can take The Offer.”
The Offer sounds like Da Meddle Fanger.
‘Silicon Valley is experiencing an extended boom that has only recently shown signs of fatigue. While the local real estate/rental markets remain on fire, given an increasingly restrained funding environment, devaluations for once-hot startups, notable recent layoffs at high-profile tech companies and a challenging IPO market, many observers portend an ominous environment ripe for a bust similar to the early 2000s.’
‘If and when the bust hits Silicon Valley, it’s sure to hurt — jobs will be lost and many dreams will remain unfulfilled. But today’s Silicon Valley is much more fundamentally strong and resilient than the dot-com era. The very essence of Silicon Valley is about embracing change and reinventing itself.
‘Collectively, we will take any hits in stride and improve upon our experiences and offerings to deliver something even better than before. We’ve learned from experience and are looking for sustainable businesses that provide real value — even if that means forgoing the ping pong table.’
The person that wrote the above probably makes 250k/year for “copy”.
‘Tech bankers feeling the pain as ‘cracks are starting to show’
San Francisco Business Times (blog)-Jun 2, 2016
Bay Area technology investment banking has been one of the hottest areas on Wall Street in recent years, but trouble is emerging. “The cracks are starting to …’
‘Layoffs Hit InsightSquared After Doubling Headcount Last Year’
“We’ve doubled our revenue each of the past two years and we beat our plan as recently as May, but throughout the tech community, absolute growth has given way to efficient growth,” Shilmover said in an email. “And efficient growth hinges on more than the top-line number. Today’s decision, painful as it was, helps us address the bottom line number.”
‘The layoffs come after InsightSquared tripled the footprint of its headquarters last year with a move to a 45,000-square-foot space in Copley Square as the company said it was experiencing continued growth.’
‘InsightSquared isn’t the only Boston startup to have layoffs this year while still growing. Earlier this year, Localytics cut 37 people, or 15 percent of its staff, to fall in line with how it was growing and make sure it’s on a path to profitability.’
IT layoffs at insurance firm are a ‘never-ending funeral’
Computerworld-May 31, 2016
The IT layoffs at MassMutual Financial Group will happen over a period of many months, and …
Listen to RJMetrics CEO Bob Moore explain the ‘painful’ decision to …
Technical.ly Philly-May 31, 2016
It’s still a “fresh wound,” Moore said of the February layoffs.
EU–Finland-Telecom Layoffs
Yahoo News-May 31, 2016
… otherwise — for large numbers of laid off personnel in the technology sector, … causing thousands of layoffs, but Microsoft also was unable to turn round the …
Bloodiest tech industry layoffs of 2016 so far
Network World-May 31, 2016
Here’s a rundown of some of the more notable layoffs, workforce reductions, …
What’s Next for Tech? More Layoffs
Barron’s-May 27, 2016
One unfortunate theme that runs through technology in this last decade of coverage is layoffs. Rather than being the story of marvels like the iPhone and …
HPE Spins Off Services As Tech Giants Slim Down
InformationWeek-May 27, 2016
It’s a strategy other tech giants have pursued as well. … IBM has embarked on a series of layoffs this year that the company calls a “workforce rebalancing,” …
Intel Outside: Chip giant shutting Romanian R&D and education dev …
ZDNet-May 26, 2016
Intel’s layoffs in Romania are part of company-wide plans to reduce costs and focus on …
After Nokia, Microsoft To Slash Thousands Of Jobs
CXOToday.com-May 25, 2016
The tech giant also confirms that it will continue to support its Lumia series of … Microsoft last year announced 7,800 layoffs and a write-down of $7.5 billion.
Boeing plans hundreds of layoffs in local IT unit
The Seattle Times-May 25, 2016
Boeing has distributed layoff notices to several hundred people in its Information Technology (IT) unit in the Puget Sound region, according to employees.
Inside IBM: ‘No-one is safe’ as fresh round of job cuts hits Big Blue
International Business Times UK-May 24, 2016
A fresh round of staff layoffs has reportedly hit multiple divisions of technology goliath IBM, with dozens of soon-to-be-former employees speaking out on …
Localytics Pushes Toward Profits After Layoffs and Market Slowdown
Xconomy-May 23, 2016
The tech startup maxim of putting growth before profits has started to reverse itself, as the venture capital boom of the past few years slows down and public …
Intel layoffs evoke painful memories
Albuquerque Journal-May 21, 2016
We had transformed the technology by taking computers out of climate-controlled shrines, entered only by a white-coated priesthood of technicians, and putting …
I think some pent up demand might be going away.
IIRC back in the day, IBM guaranteed lifetime employment.
But house valuations are not too high, right Rental Watch?
1996 high? Or 2001 high?
1996 high? Or 2001 high?
LOL, right?
Had a casual conversation with a co-worker that turned a bit ugly this morning. Another co-worker joined in and I heard all of these statements in the space of 3 minutes: (1)You can’t time the housing market. (2) I wouldn’t ever worry about buying real estate here (Franklin, TN). (3) It never really bubbled here. (4) It’s never going to be cheaper than it is right now. And OF COURSE, the classic: (5) It’s different here.
So freakin’ predictable.
Yeah, it’s different there alright. They haven’t had a bubble this size there before! LOL.
A quick check of zillow shows that there are four SFH for sale under $250K within 15 miles of downtown. FOUR. And three of them were as-is auctions. Does Franklin really have the jobs to support the $300K market?
Does anywhere?
sure…. a couple earning $100k between them can afford $300k easily.
lol@lola
“Those who do sell will have an upper hand, said Barris, who frequently sees prices on property listings inflated by 10 to 20 percent. A client recently sold a house for $159,000 that two years ago would have been lucky to sell for $130,000, she said.”
Cannot think of a better description of a “bubble”.
So if the Dow, etc. keeps dropping I might like to put a little money in.
Is there a Vanguard fund you would recommend that might do well over the next couple years or so?
Or is it too hard to say, given we’re in an election year and looking at a slowing economy and housing bubble that might burst, lol
When gambling, use the dollar cost averaging strategy.
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/why-dollar-cost-averaging-is-a-smart-investment-strategy-cm354240
I suggest first look at all the Vanguard ETFs. Look at their charts for the last five to ten years. Look for cycles. The one you find most undervalued will have an associated investor class or admiral fund if it is not a sector fund. Then put $3,000 in (or the minimum for Admiral fund) and dollar cost average.
I never time stock funds. I dollar cost average into them.
I,try timing stocks on an individual basis.
Are affordable gasoline prices soon to return?
Oil futures settle at lowest level in over a week
Published: June 27, 2016 3:10 p.m. ET
By Myra P. Saefong
Markets/commodities reporter
Corrects the date for the last time prices finished at a level this low.
Oil futures dropped Monday, sending prices to their lowest level in about a week as the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union raised concerns over a slowdown in energy demand. August WTI crude (CLQ6, -2.67%) settled at $46.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down $1.31, or 2.8%. Futures prices marked their lowest settlement since June 16, according to data from Dow Jones.
Update: Oil Plummets 26% YoY On Collapsing Global Demand
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic
“Are affordable gasoline prices soon to return?”
Nope. Think “crack spread.”
Downtown Los Angeles, CA Housing Prices Crater 7% YoY As Housing Inventory Balloons Statewide
http://www.zillow.com/downtown-los-angeles-ca/home-values/
the Notorious B.I.G. — “Juicy” (1994):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4M0ObL56C0A
Why not listen to the whole album “Ready To Die”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2RdaHh0U-s
This is Brooklyn, New York, before it became 99% white.
Wu Tang Clan — Enter The 36 Chambers (1993):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jOLuW2w5kgg
of all people….
Greenspan Warns A Crisis Is Imminent, Urges A Return To The Gold Standard
For sure… more like buying absolution now?
Didn’t seem to bother him in 1998 - 99 when he was touting the benefits of deregulation and derivatives.
“Greenspan also had some colorful comments at the conference on gold, including this gem: “The gold standard is not possible in a welfare state.”"
(From 2014)
http://www.cnbc.com/2014/10/31/
U.S. isolationism between the world wars was a bipartisan policy, drawing support from across the social and political spectrum. Its fundamental postulate was not absolute withdrawal behind the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, but a belief that the United States should retain the independence in foreign policy that had been its norm until 1917. America’s direct losses in World War I were less significant in reinforcing that position than a growing sense that the war had been fought over nothing; that America’s former allies were less concerned with peace and justice than with victory and plunder; and that the United States had obtained nothing from its participation except uncollected debts. In January 1937 almost three-fourths of the responses to an opinion poll believed that American participation in World War I had been a mistake.
How about the Iraq war? All for nothing?
“How about the Iraq war? All for nothing?”
IMHO, yes. But I don’t see much soul-searching over it, nor any clear message to the pols that we don’t want to keep getting involved in overseas quagmires.
How about the Iraq war? All for nothing?
Hardly. We vanquished a tyrant and his WMDs, built a thriving secular democracy with strong institutions, and as the neocons promised, recouped all the cost through the generous gift of Iraqi oil offered to us by the grateful liberated Shias, Sunnis, and Kurds joined by the bonds of brotherly solidarity in a peaceful and prosperous land.
Oh, wait….
“Hardly. We vanquished…”
LOL… sarcasm at its finest!
“How about the Iraq war? All for nothing?”
Is oil still sold in dollars?
Mission accomplished.
ALL WARS ARE BANKER WARS.
You could probably solve all your life problems if you spent a week listening to the Four Tops, Temptations, Jackson 5, Parliament, Funkadelic, Sly & the Family Stone.
Black music is American music. Accept nothing less…
Parliament — Funkentelechy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFalZJ5eEwY
If we’re going old school, I believe I’d rather have a helping of Meat Loaf, complete with cheesey operatic video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DcTJ3gxPis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGDyAb6pePo - 451k -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkr77jE5GFY - 262k -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzrXc68gNjQ - 178k -
Miami Lakes, FL Housing Prices Tank 8% YoY As Sellers Statewide Slash Prices
http://www.zillow.com/miami-lakes-fl/home-values/
Taxpayers, get ready for more bank bailouts.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/06/27/european-banks-get-crushed-worst-2-day-plunge-ever-italian-banks-to-get-taxpayer-bailout-contagion-hits-us-banks/
European bank stocks just experienced their worst two-day plunge ever in the post-Brexit fallout that rained down on the already blooming European banking crisis.
Healthy big banks would get over Brexit and the political turmoil it is spawning, particularly non-UK banks. But there are no healthy big banks in Europe. And non-UK banks are crashing just as hard, and some harder. This is about a banking crisis morphing into a financial crisis.
These bank stocks got crushed on Friday. And they got crushed again today. Italian banks have been reduced to penny stocks. Spanish banks are getting closer. Commerzbank, Germany’s second largest bank, and still partially owned by the German government as a consequence of the last bailout, is well on the way.
The two-day losses are just breathtaking.
“Former Orange County Deputy Had Sex With Male Prostitutes”
‘Following an internal investigation, McCray resigned from the Orange County Sheriff’s Office and became a realtor.’ <—-
http://www.wftv.com/news/local/former-orange-county-deputy-had-sex-with-male-prostitutes-investigators-say/368074682
Morgan Adams-Washington, DC Housing Prices Crater 9% YoY; Housing Demand Plummets
http://www.zillow.com/adams-morgan-washington-dc/home-values/
Front-page news on MSN. So many things you could comment on here.
Wow! I stopped last December. Did not know lots of other people joined in. Could it be because they had inflation in things they needed as well?
I love how the Wendy’s Chief Executive is completely clueless. Same with the Kroger chief exec mentioned in the article. It’s like these people reside on another planet where the atmosphere is very thin.
Brexit
Markets braced for further panic after debt downgrade
Philip Aldrick, Economics Editor| Tom Knowles
June 28 2016, 12:01am, The Times
Time for reflection: Standard & Poor’s said the decision to leave the EU could relegate sterling from the world’s exclusive reserve currencies
DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS/AFP/Getty
Britain has been hit with a two-notch downgrade to its sovereign credit rating in a move that is likely to send another wave of panic through markets today.
Standard & Poor’s said the decision to leave the EU could relegate sterling from the world’s exclusive reserve currencies. It said the downgrade reflected risks to economic prospects, “a marked deterioration of external financing conditions” and questions about “the constitutional and economic integrity of the UK if there is another referendum on Scottish independence”.
It cut the UK from AAA to AA and left the rating on “negative” in a major downgrade…
…