Looking At A Bit Of Saturation
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Apartment developers are starting to tread more carefully as cracks appear in the five-year-old boom that sent rents soaring to records across the U.S. Construction concentrated in fast-growing urban markets has left cities from New York to Denver and San Francisco with a surplus of high-end units. ‘Everybody fell in love with these markets and wanted to build — but you can’t build forever, it doesn’t work that way,’ said Ryan Severino, chief economist at research firm Reis Inc. ‘The apartment market is losing steam.’”
“The second quarter was the fifth straight in which construction exceeded net gains in occupancy, according to a report Reis issued late Tuesday. With almost 200,000 units completed over the past 12 months, ‘2016 is set to challenge records for construction figures, if not break them,’ the firm said.”
“As tens of thousands of Boston-area tenants get ready to move this summer, there are yet more signs that the region’s rental market might finally be topping out. A number of new apartment buildings are set to open around the city’s traditional Sept. 1 move-in date, putting more pressure on landlords, some of whom are already offering sweeteners such as a free month or two, to keep rent hikes in check. More buildings are covering upfront costs such as broker’s fees and security deposits. That effectively lowers their costs to tenants and forces owners of older buildings to do the same to compete.”
“‘You clearly see the trickle-down effect of new inventory,’ said Ishay Grinberg, president of RentalBeast, a Somerville-based rental website. ‘The big new buildings have to adjust to attract more ‘normal’ renters. That applies pressure on the mid-market buildings, too.’”
“Although the Baton Rouge apartment market remains strong, the dramatic increase in the number of new units completed or planned is starting to have an impact on rental trends in the area. Some older properties already are showing signs of struggling to maintain their vacancy rate, which has remained consistent with historical norms of slightly under 6% in Baton Rouge. ‘Some of the older complexes, those built in the late ’80s, are struggling to lease up,’ says Wesley Moore, a partner with real estate appraisal firm Cook, Moore and Associates, adding their occupancy rates remain in the upper 80th percentile for now.”
“In terms of inventory, there is virtually nothing under $400,000 within city limits, said Larry Kendall, co-founder of The Group Real Estate in Fort Collins. The inventory of higher-priced homes listed for more than $700,000 is 13.3 months, a buyers’ market. Kendall said it’s the best ‘move-up market’ he’s seen in his 43 years in real estate. ‘You can sell your $400,000 house in a few days and go buy a $700,000 house and be in a buyer’s market and close it at less than a 4 percent interest rate,’ he said.”
“Our housing market has nearly returned to the frothy prices seen in 2005 and 2006 before the real estate crash. And anyone who bought a home in the Truckee Meadows in 2011 is in tall cotton today. The median home price in Carson City has gone up from $161,000 in April, 2011 to $242,000 in the same month this year, according to Zillow. ‘I guess we’re seeing a resurgence in prices. The market is way, way improved and now we’re having appraisal problems, the house prices are going up faster than they’re appraising,’ said Avis Cherry, president, Sierra Nevada Association of Realtors.”
“Cherry said springtime, in particular, was active, but there has been softening in the Carson City residential home market since then. Few entry level homes are available and homes at all price points are staying on the market longer than they did earlier in the year. ‘We’re starting to see a little slowdown, a little correction because prices have gone up too quickly,’ she said.”
“According to ISG World’s Miami Report, more than 2,300 units in eight projects had once been slated for delivery in the first quarter this year. No new inventory actually arrived in the period, and during those three months, only 74 units sold. Nayla Benitez, manager of EWM Realty International’s Brickell office, pointed to market saturation as a major factor in the construction slowdown. Over the past year, she said, there’s been a 19% increase, representing about 30 months of supply. Looking at the $1 million-plus market exclusively, Ms. Benitez said, that figure jumps to about 70 months. A nine-month supply is considered a balanced market.”
“‘We still have a handful of buildings that are not finished,’ she said. ‘They will bring on nearly 3,000 units between 2016 and 2017. ‘So we are looking at a bit of saturation, but we feel the market will correct itself. Even with this level of inventory we are very optimistic that the market will not see the drops in prices we saw in the last cycle.’ For the moment, though, she said, sales are down 30% from this time last year. ‘That has everything to do with Latin America,’ Ms. Benitez said. ‘It will be interesting to see what happens in the next six months. There will be opportunities created, but as more units come in, we will see owners in older buildings trying to sell at a very competitive rate.’”
“Despite a lingering decline in the price of oil resulting in energy industry layoffs, the housing market in Sugar Land and Missouri City remains healthy, local real estate agents said. It is still a seller’s market in the area, said Susan Greer, a broker associate with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene. Greer said in other areas, layoffs have inhibited home purchases. ‘What we’ve really seen—and especially in our Katy office—where two days before closing somebody loses their job and so that transaction is off,’ Greer said.”
“In recent months, real estate developers across Mumbai – home to the largest number of billionaires in India – have upped the ante to entice the wealthy, name-conscious, status-obsessed buyer. Exclusive branded interiors, in-house spas, indoor Jacuzzis, concierge services, and luxury hotel tie-ups are not the only draws. The market reality, however, belies such swagger, and the cheery catchphrases of the brochures. Desperation has led builders to sit across the negotiating table, which can bring prices down by between 10% and 20% at least.”
“Some, in fact, have even been scared away by developers’ hyper-emphasis on opulence. ‘I want a home, not five-star frills,’ says a banker who’s been scouting South Mumbai unsuccessfully for six months for a no-nonsense property. ‘For old school people like me, even though I have a budget, it is becoming increasingly difficult to find something tasteful, but low key. Something that doesn’t scream money.’”
“Then there are also considerations of the simple laws of economics. The scarcer the product, more is the demand, thereby, driving up prices. In Mumbai’s oversupplied luxury residential market, the biggest problem is that this simple equation is not adding up.”
“House hunters in East Vancouver were just greeted by a strange but highly unusual sight: six-figure price reductions on several homes. At least two older single-family homes in the Fraser corridor saw reductions of $100,000 in the past two weeks. The price of a three-story fixer-upper on East 18th Avenue near Kingsway dropped a whopping $449,000 — nearly a full quarter of the asking price — after sitting stagnant for several weeks of open houses with no offers.”
“Dan Morrison, president of the Real Estate Board of Metro Vancouver, says inventory has crept up slowly over the past four months. Since March, more homes have been listed for sale in the Vancouver area than in any other four-month period this decade. UBC economist Tom Davidoff says it’s unusual to see places taking more than one open house to sell, and that the market could be ‘finding itself’ after a rapid acceleration that saw prices spike more than 30 per cent in a single year. ‘When you start to see inventory rising and homes taking longer to sell that gives you an inkling that you’re at the top of a cycle instead of on your way up,’ he said.”
“Russian oligarchs, Middle Eastern oil tycoons, international arms dealers and jet-setting trust-fund kids just took a nasty hit thanks to Brexit. These people and their ilk have been using central London real estate for the last 20 years as their money laundromat of choice. London was considered a great place to park money. Real estate there ‘never goes down.’ Meanwhile demand just went up and up and up. After all, London was the effective capital of Europe. Everyone wanted to move there.”
“Oops. Prime central-London properties have lost more than 10% of their value in the past month when measured in U.S. dollars, the international currency for the super rich. And that means the inconceivable has happened: This part of the London real-estate market has now entered what is considered ‘bear market’ territory, following a loss of more than 20%. That is based on a key index that tracks the kinds of property coveted by the plutocracy, created by top-tier London real-estate broker Knight Frank, known as The Prime Central London property index. It has plunged 22% since the summer of 2014 when measured in dollars.”
“Interesting times. As a wise man once said, there is no such thing as a completely safe investment, merely one whose risks aren’t yet apparent.”
‘After the financial crisis, which sent prices sharply lower, commercial real estate in the U.S. has enjoyed growth with solid fundamentals. Rents have steadily increased and demand generally continues to exceed supply. Improving fundamentals, though, have not been the primary driver of higher CRE prices. Consider this: Since the fourth quarter of 2009, overall office prices have doubled (as have general CRE prices), yet national office rents have risen only about 15% (see Figure 1). The primary price driver for U.S. CRE assets instead has been capital flows.’
‘But capital flows have grown unstable over the past year due to fears over interest rate hikes and, more recently, events such as political and economic uncertainty in China. While this instability began in the public CRE markets, it has blown in to private CRE as well, particularly in non-major markets.’
‘In August of 2016, REITs will be reclassified as their own sector within the Global Industry Classification Standard, which could partly account for recent outperformance. While a more specific benchmark should result in increased flows to REITs from index-conscious equity funds, REITs could still be exposed to highly correlated and volatile global capital markets.’
“CMBS loan origination platforms have been crushed by the plunge in prices, as banks and originators found their recently originated loans, intended for securitization, to be underwater based on CMBS pricing.”
‘CRE liquidity has declined in recent years, driven by post-financial crisis regulations such as Dodd-Frank and the Federal Reserve’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR). This has intensified volatility for the sector during periods of broader public market sell-offs. In February, for instance, oil-induced fears in the broader high yield debt markets led to redemptions that forced several hedge funds to unload positions, including subordinate U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS).’
‘Here again, the sell-off had little to do with actual CRE fundamentals. Instead, it highlighted an increasingly important headwind to U.S. CRE finance broadly – reduced bank dealer inventories. As with other areas of fixed income, banks have traditionally served as market makers in CMBS. However, in response to a variety of regulatory pressures, banks have reduced their balance sheet inventory by nearly half in the last two years (see Figure 3). The impact of this inventory reduction is clear – hedge funds hold about 40% of subordinate U.S. CMBS positions, and as they began selling to meet redemptions in February banks were unable to provide liquidity (or make a market). As a result, prices for these subordinate CMBS positions fell by as much as 20% in a matter of weeks.’
‘CMBS loan origination platforms also have been crushed by the plunge in prices, as banks and originators found their recently originated loans, intended for securitization, to be underwater based on CMBS pricing. According to Bank of America, CMBS issuance in the first quarter of 2016 tumbled by over 30%.’
‘Not surprisingly, with CMBS representing over 20% of the debt origination market in 2015, the February fallout in CMBS had a notable impact on private CRE as well. CMBS lenders increased rates on their debt quotes by 50–100 basis points and buyers reduced property bids to maintain target returns. Indeed, broker transaction volume affirms this dynamic – first quarter transactions dropped 11% compared with the same period in 2015, according to CBRE Group.’
‘Hardest hit were non-major markets, where CMBS represents over 35% of the non-multifamily debt origination volume. Many deals fell out of contract or re-priced down by as much as 10% to 15%.’
‘Since the fourth quarter of 2009, overall office prices have doubled (as have general CRE prices)’
That’s all you need to know as far as how this will turn out.
“That’s all you need to know as far as how this will turn out.”
This too …
“The primary price driver for U.S. CRE assets instead has been capital flows.”
cre is 2002 -pricing here in Hilary land
“After the financial crisis, which sent prices sharply lower, commercial real estate in the U.S. has enjoyed growth with solid fundamentals.”
That first sentence, lies and propaganda.
If “solid fundamentals” were present the government guarantees wouldn’t be needed, a savings account would be yielding 5%, jobs in this CRE would be paying living wages, etc., and Obama wouldn’t have to bite his tongue when he reads the teleprompter.
How we all forget. Aren’t the emergency measures from the Fed still in place? Isn’t QE still going on? Even competitive QE, expanding into buying corporate bonds in Europe and REITs in Japan. I heard a guy say once that if TARP was an ambulance, QE is triage. Solid fundamentals my foot.
Consider this: Since the fourth quarter of 2009, overall office prices have doubled (as have general CRE prices), yet national office rents have risen only about 15% (see Figure 1). The primary price driver for U.S. CRE assets instead has been capital flows.’
The operative word for this is “cap rate compression”, meaning that yields have fallen (all-else equal, driving prices higher).
However, in Q4 2009, people were still expecting commercial RE to follow in the footsteps of residential…and so at that point, such fear drove values below where a “fair” level was (yields were too high).
Today cap rates for stabilized assets are historically low. The really scary thing at these low yields is that small moves in cap rates will crush you. All-else equal, going from a 5% cap rate to a 6% cap rate will reduce value by 20%. Good luck to your returns if you put 30% down. It will take you 13 years of cash flow to just break even.
Additionally though, cap rates today are in part “buying the dream” of higher rents. Buyers, instead of buying on the basis of the in-place rents, they are buying on the basis that they will be able to raise those in-place rents to market when the tenants’ leases expire.
In some cases, this might be reasonable…especially if the in-place rents were struck in 2009-2011, when rents were still pretty low.
HOWEVER in many cases, this is a pipe dream. In the Bay Area for instance, do people really believe that their tenants can pay triple the rent and stay in business? I don’t.
The real metrics that matter in any market is cost per square foot and how much supply is being added.
If you are paying a low yield, high price per square foot in a market where they are building like crazy, look out below.
If you are paying a low yield, low price per square foot in a market where they can’t justify building competitive space yet (because the construction cost/rent equation doesn’t “pencil”), the dynamics are much different.
‘The overheated rental housing market in Portland is fueling demand for new apartment construction that is now spilling into communities north of the city. Two projects with a combined total of nearly 130 market-rate apartments are pending in Cumberland, an affluent coastal community dominated by single-family homes. In neighboring Falmouth, the owner of the Foreside Estates complex has floated an expansion that would add 72 high-end apartments in three new buildings.’
‘The projects come as hundreds of apartment units are being developed in Portland and other projects are coming on line in Cape Elizabeth and Westbrook. Housing construction in the region is rebounding from the recession and developers are trying to catch up to the demand for apartments.’
‘The apartment complex will be sited next to a subdivision where homes are selling for between $350,000 and $400,000, Graiver said. Monthly rent at the complex will run from $1,250 to $1,550, with heat included, according to Graiver.’
‘Daniel Endyke, a senior vice president for Princeton Properties, said the new units would rent for more than $2,000 a month without utilities and his company hopes to start construction next year. “I think, certainly, the economics work today. They did not three or four years ago,” Endyke said. “The real estate cycle is just that,” he said. “You try to catch it right, and we hope we are.”
‘New home listing rose in June in metro Denver, but the pace of sales softened, boosting the number of properties available on the market. Randy Hay, a residential broker with Keller Williams Realty Downtown in Denver, said he recently listed a home for $348,000. It is the kind of property that earlier this year would have had multiple showings a day and a quick sale.’
“Now it can go days without a showing,” he said. On the flip side, Hay said he can once again show buyers three or four homes in a day without them feeling pressure to make an immediate decision.’
The party is over in Denver.
How is it that within days the msm treats us to articles about how houses in Denver are flying off the shelves like flashlights before a storm hits, and then articles about how the bloom is off the rose?
‘Insight: China’s innovaton economy a real estate bubble in disguise?’
‘The Chinese government’s call to the nation to build an innovation-driven economy from the top down has sparked a rush by local governments to construct new buildings in the name of supporting creativity.’
‘Innovation centres have been popping up around the country and are set to more than double to nearly 5,000 in the next five years, according to internet research firm iiMedia. The only problem for local governments; entrepreneurs are not moving in.’
‘Many centres are in small Chinese cities or towns, not ideal locations for attracting startups. There is no local market for their product, no local ecosystem of suppliers and fellow entrepreneurs and centres generally provide only basic amenities, such as a desk and a telephone. They lack the financial, technical or marketing expertise that many startups need.’
‘Most incubators have occupancy rates of no more than 40 percent, iiMedia says.’
‘The result: like steel mills, theme parks and housing before them, the country now faces a glut of innovation centres as another top-down policy backfires to leave white-elephant projects and a further buildup of debt.’
“The risk of a bubble is extremely large,” said Shi Jiqiang, a partner at Leilai Management, which runs day-to-day operations at a startup base in the city of Tianjin, near Beijing. “This is both a test for government and for the managers of startup spaces … there aren’t enough entrepreneurs.”
This one’s a hoot.
‘The Chinese government’s call to the nation to build an innovation-driven economy from the top down has sparked a rush by local governments to construct new buildings in the name of supporting creativity.’
How very innovative.
maybe they can broadcast it on loud speakers
comrade be innovation now,preeze
… While they do group innovation calesthenics!
“Beijing argues its development model that worked so well” (wtf?) “for infrastructure and real estate, powering the country through the global financial crisis, can build successful, high-tech startups.”
“However, the innovation centre, offering desks and a period of free rent and utilities to potential startups, is empty. The floors are littered with rubbish and dust.”
“Shacheng’s local authority and the county economic planner declined to comment.”
Truly an entertaining article.
‘FHA Credit Score Standards Are Dropping In 2016′
‘Many lenders are approving FHA loans down to a 580 score. And according to loan software company Ellie Mae, 7 in 10 mortgages reach the closing table, a new high since the company started tracking data.’
‘In 2016, a lower credit score doesn’t have to be the end of your homeownership goals. Fortunately, the rules are starting to change. FHA has implemented changes that allow lenders to drop FHA credit score minimums and allow more applicants to qualify.’
‘A lot has changed in four years. For one thing, demand for refinancing dropped, so lenders had to ease up to keep applicants coming in the door. Today, the majority of mortgage applicants are successful, according to Ellie Mae, with more than 70 percent of applications resulting in closed loans as of May 2016.’
‘The same month, the average FICO for successful applicants was 724, and nearly one in four approved FHA applicants had FICOs between 550 and 650.’
‘During the worst of the mortgage crisis, experts estimated that 90 to 95 percent of lenders imposed overlays. By July 2015, Fannie Mae’s Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey concluded that only 40 percent of lenders were still applying credit overlays.’
‘The government made some changes, too. In 2015, HUD announced changes to the compare ratio system used to evaluate lenders. The agency created a “supplemental performance metric” to make it easier for lenders to approve loans according to FHA guidelines and make credit available to more homebuyers.’
‘All these changes mean it’s now easier for lower-credit borrowers to buy a home, or finally qualify for a refinance.’
‘Approving mortgages with DTIs at 43 percent or less (debt payments at or below 43 percent of gross income) is the easiest way for lenders to comply with the rule. However, lenders can approve borrowers with higher DTIs if they can justify it. You just have to look harder to find them.’
Ahem…
‘demand for refinancing dropped, so lenders had to ease up to keep applicants coming in the door’
‘Fort Wayne has been named one of the hottest housing markets by Realtor.com.“The housing market is like I’ve never seen it before,” Coldwell Banker Realtor Charla Sheray said.’
‘Sheray said Coldwell Banker has seen a 20 percent spike in closings so far this year. North Eastern Realty Group President Kim Ward said they’ve seen a 14 percent increase in sales over their best month. “Homes are flying off the market,”Ward said.’
‘Houses aren’t lasting long on the market. “If the three components are in line that it takes to get an offer which are condition, location and price we get people come looking the first day or two and it’s not uncommon to have multiple offers,” Sheray said.’
‘With fewer homes on the market, it can be tough for buyers. Multiple offers on a home can result in bidding wars and sometimes higher prices. That’s why you need to be ready to act before you ever schedule a viewing.’
“Those buyers need to be pre-qualified, have a letter from their lender that says we’re qualified for this amount or for that particular property and they just need to get out there right away and be ready to make a decision quickly,” Sheray said.’
“You need to be working with a realtor, set up on a search on the MLS [multiple listing service] so that you’ll get notifications immediately and realtors right now just need to be available to jump on those properties when they become available for their clients,” Ward said.’
‘If you’re looking to buy a home in the La Crosse area, you have got to move fast. It’s a trend not surprising to La Crosse Area Realtors Association’s Dave Synder. “I think when something comes on the market, and it’s priced right, it can sell as quick as 24 hours, or as quick as two or three days,” Snyder said.’
google earth confirms these tiny Midwest towns are running out of land and have brutal commutes !
Everybody wants to live in La Crosse and play Lacrosse.
Ben -
Not asking in a disparaging way - have you been through Fort Wayne?
Man it is a tough place in many respects not the least of which is it is situated in nothing but massive corn fields.
Why anyone would live there is something to ponder.
Never even flew over that part of the country. I could devote an entire blog to little burgs where you have to act immediately if you hope to win a multiple offer situation. It’s not clear how much is hype.
Been there.
There’s just the university which is the main employer. There’s also vacation properties and summer activities.
It’s gorgeous in summer. It’s beyond brutal in winter.
From the first link:
‘Builders went upscale to preserve profits squeezed by rising land and labor costs. Now they’ll need to work harder to find renters willing to pay a premium for trendy locations and frills such as rooftop pools and fire pits. About 30 percent of the apartment units under construction are in cities, compared with 15 percent in the previous decade, according to multifamily-data firm MPF Research.’
‘In Austin, Texas, where technology jobs are driving up wages, 12,130 units will be delivered over the next 12 months, the most since 1985, said Robin Davis, manager of data firm Apartmenttrends.com. The 1,124 apartments under construction downtown would expand that area’s rental market by about 31 percent.’
‘Developer Mike Lynd has shelved a midrise building planned for suburban Austin with 325 units, and a tower of more than 30 stories in Houston. Lenders have started tightening underwriting, and land costs in Austin have doubled in three years, “choking off the ability to add supply to Austin in a big way,” he said.’
‘Average rents downtown, which increased 1.2 percent in the first quarter, would have been flat if not for the recent debuts of some of Austin’s most-expensive buildings, Davis said. “The number of units coming online is at such a high price tag,” she said. “The central core is going to take time to absorb these units.”
“profits squeezed by rising land and labor costs.”
How are labor costs going up? I keep reading that wages are stagnant.
The construction downturn was so long and deep that many of the workers left construction and found other jobs. And they aren’t going to leave a steady paycheck and come back to a historically cyclical industry.
I just pulled this from the annual Harvard Housing Propoganda Report:
“Labor shortages could also be a damper on construction activity. More than 2 million workers left the industry between 2007 and
2013, reducing the construction workforce to 80 percent of its
2007 peak. According to a Census Bureau analysis, only 40 percent
of those who lost their jobs between 2006 and 2009 had returned
to their previous positions or to other jobs in the industry. Of the
remaining displaced workers, more than half found work outside
construction and the rest did not return to the formal labor force.
This contraction left the construction workforce significantly
older. The share of trades workers age 55 and over rose from 10
percent in 2007 to 16 percent in 2013, while the share under the
age of 35 fell from 43 percent to 35 percent. This pattern reflects
not only the aging of workers that held onto their jobs through
the recession, but also a falloff in hiring of younger workers.
Indeed, only 13 percent of newly hired construction workers
in 2013 were under age 25, down from 18 percent before 2006.
Without younger workers to bolster the ranks as older workers
move toward retirement, labor shortfalls may emerge. As it is,
a 2015 National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) survey
found that a majority of construction firms were already reporting
labor shortages in many trades.”
Go ahead and tell us what other jobs people from the construction trades have found since 2007-2013.
Retail salesperson at Home Depot or Walmart? Barista?
AS IF those guys wouldn’t jump back into construction in a heartbeat if there were jobs available for them.
We all know what’s been going on with the economy.
Was kinda wondering myself, what other jobs they found…
“…and the rest did not return to the formal labor force.” So I guess they are now part of the 94 million or so who aren’t working?
people are working but a big percentage of the 94 million is off the books cash freelance no taxes taken out
A big percentage of work done in the trades is off the books, period. Always has been.
‘Pharrell Williams must have been seeing a few blurred lines in his bank book, after the nearly 50% discount he had to take on the sale of his Brickell Avenue penthouse. The songster had purchased the 10,000-square-foot spread for $12,525,000 in 2007. Originally listed in 2012 for $16.8 million, the Miami property had gone on and off the market with several price cuts until it sold to a New Jersey businessman for $9.25 million.’
Look at the phrasing here, Ben.
Williams didn’t take a near 50% discount. (A wish sales price of $16.8 million does not figure into the scenario.)
He took a hit of approximately 26%, a serious loss off his initial purchase of $12.525M in 2007.
One wonders if the author has a hidden agenda (probable). Otherwise, it’s difficult to believe that he or she could be that stupid.
He certainly did DISCOUNT the price by nearly 50% to sell it.
He took an ACTUAL LOSS of approx 26%.
What’s YOUR hidden agenda?
You don’t calculate losses off of ASKING prices. There’s an original sales price and a final sales price. And that’s it.
“Discount price”? What the hell is that? Guess what? It’s an arbitrary number based on some other arbitrary number, usually an “asking price”..
I could attempt to sell you a 1986 Pontiac Sunbird for $100,000K, and six months later offer it for $50,000 - a 50% “discount”. If I could sell that car at that 50% discount, I’d laugh my way to the bank.
Let’s hope that few are so foolish to think “discount price” means anything more than horseshit.
No chinese bid up the price. They are so ray-cis…what a disgrace…
Our old friend Amy Hoak:
‘Demand for housing is white-hot and supply is ultra-lean. But that doesn’t mean all the people on one side of the real estate transaction are sitting pretty. For Linda Gaudin, a divorced Portland, Oregon, homemaker whose kids had moved out, there were a few false starts. Gaudin started thinking about selling her big, old English Tudor in 2014 — “it’s 4,000 square feet and it’s just me and the dog,” she said — but shied away from the craziness of the real estate market.’
‘Finally, after Christmas 2015, Gaudin had enough. “It’s time to quit taking care of this house,” she said.’
‘Gaudin has gone from being put off by the churning Portland real estate market to taking solace in it. Her new home is in a part of town she’s not as familiar with, but her real-estate agent told her not to worry. “Joan says, if I decide I don’t like Lake Oswego I could turn around and sell that house for a profit.”
‘With so few homes for sale in the Portland region, multiple bids are now being made on houses far away from the most popular close-in neighborhoods. According to Michie Megan, a John L. Scott real estate agent in Lake Oswego, more and more buyers are willing to make compromises, like a longer commute, to own a home.’
“Because of the shortage of homes, people who work in Portland are bidding against each other in cities that are many miles away,” including Gresham, Wilsonville, Woodburn — and even Washington cities north of Vancouver, Megan says.’
‘A good example is one of her clients, Sara Forrest. When the 30-year-old military veteran decided it was time to buy her first home. Forrest finally got lucky when she bid $15,000 over the asking price on a small house near I-205 and Southeast Division Street. Although one person outbid her, that deal fell through and Forrest was able to move into the house several weeks ago.’
‘Although Forrest is pleased with the additional room and large back yard, the commute to her job in Lake Oswego is now much more time-consuming, especially on those times when I-205 is very congested.’
“My commute went from 20 minutes to sometimes over an hour,” says Forrest, who still considers herself fortunate. She credits the Veterans Administration loan program for allowing her to buy her first house.’
“I’m really worried about what’s happening in Portland right now, with rents going up, and all the older homes being demolished and replaced with more expensive ones. By owning, I’m not going to be paying much more than renting, I have more control over my life, and I’m building equity,” Forrest says.’
Plus, Sara, these UHS say if you get laid off or get tired of the commute, you can sell for a profit. VA loan. That means zero down, huh?
‘The sign on the restaurant window caught my attention. I stopped to read it. Then read it again. The little restaurant where we’d ordered dinner ever since discovering Manzanita in 2004 had closed its dining room. For now, at least, the menu at Marzano’s Pizza Pie will be strictly take-out. As a friend who once worked at the restaurant so aptly put it, “It was a gut punch.”
‘It turns out Marzano’s will be take-out only because for the first time in 15 years they can no longer find the staff they need to operate their very successful business. And they can’t find the staff because people can’t find affordable housing. It’s the same story in many coastal towns.’
“I say that this is an overnight crisis 40 years in the making,” said Lincoln County Commissioner Bill Hall. “I have been testifying on housing issues in the legislature for several sessions. Up until last year, I saw only one other elected official show up. This year, a whole parade of councilors, city managers, mayors, the state treasurer were there. All of the sudden it has risen to the top of everybody’s agenda. They are hearing stories like Marzano’s.”
“I think the problem in Manzanita is the housing inventory overall,” said Dan Haag, coordinator for the Manzanita Visitor Center. “It is getting gobbled up by people from out of state. There are some people moving in to retire. People moving in to get away from other things. People are using them as vacation rentals.”
I’ve often wondered how they staff low wage jobs in Silly Valley.
A friend of mine runs a small hotel group, some property in the Bay Area…this is his biggest challenge.
They bus them in.
Just like the subway system “buses” in workers from the Bronx and Queens into Manhattan.
They bus them in.
That has to be one loooooooong bus ride. I know people at the Santa Clara site who have 1.5 hour commutes and they have cars. And these are people who live on the east side of the bay, but still the metro area, meaning it’s still too expensive for the $12/hr crowd. Are they commuting from Manteca or Los Banos?
East Palo Alto is about 20 minutes from Palo Alto, Atherton, etc.
It’s just the “wrong side of the tracks”.
Think Jets v/s Sharks. Very 1950’s.
“East Palo Alto is…”
Don’t forget East Menlo Park… both good hunting turf back in my repo days.
A friend-of-a-friend is a manager at an outlet store in Silverthorne, CO. She’s said the same thing: due to the high cost of living, it is very difficult to get and keep retail help.
In that case difficult must just mean more expensive than they want to pay.
“difficult must just mean more expensive than they want to pay.”
Very, very good point that is so easy to forget. Apparently - from what I’ve read in history books - in old-timey capitalism scarcity of labor drove wages up.
And it’s a business problem, but a lot of it comes down to the end customer. It’s outrageous - wealthy equity locust retirees move somewhere en masse, drive up the cost of RE, yet they never want to pay the actual cost of the goods they consume whose prices they have driven up. This pizza place, and every business like it, should raise the cost of their goods in line with the actual cost of the first-world labor to produce it, say, $50 or $75 a pizza? And if these spoiled retirees don’t want to pay what something actually costs, then they can do without like the rest of us.
Exactly!
Silverthorne is out in the sticks too, in Summit County. So in addition to being pricey (because it’s near the ski resorts) there aren’t a lot of people to hire to begin with.
Another factor that affects service sector employers (like hotels, restaurants, etc.) in high cost coastal areas is that many if not most of their employees now have to work two or more jobs to get by…so they are unable to work overtime, alternate shifts, cover for coworkers out sick or on vacation, etc.
Welcome to the lower Florida Keys.
‘My commute went from 20 minutes to sometimes over an hour’
Portland is seriously effed. I don’t know why people put up with it. We’re currently weighing other options…
“it’s 4,000 square feet and it’s just me and the dog,”
Bahahahaha. That describes me exactly in 2007. Difference is, I (and my dog) sold…
‘U.S. landlords who built rental businesses by buying homes en masse are now consolidating and streamlining their operations, in part by selling for a profit properties that have soared in value or no longer fit their business models. Invitation Homes is the first of the large rental companies to give residents a shot at owning their houses, seeking to benefit from having its own pool of ready buyers who are constrained by a market starved for affordable homes.’
‘Selling rental homes to tenants is a way for investors to make more money than they would selling in bulk, and saves them the costs of renovating and carrying the properties until they sell on the open market.’
‘Invitation Homes bought Suniga’s house for $83,000 in 2013, according to property records. Values in Phoenix have since risen about 25 percent, and rents in the area have climbed 15 percent in the same period.’
‘Now, Suniga is buying the renovated place for $150,000 with a loan from the Blackstone-owned Finance of America Mortgage LLC. A bankruptcy from more than a decade ago, along with a past sale of a home for less than what was owed on it, had raised flags with other lenders Suniga talked to, even though she’s brought her credit score up to 660, she said.’
‘Suniga’s monthly mortgage payment will be$920, about $65 less than her rent, she said. Her down payment wouldn’t have been large enough without the help of the Maricopa County, Arizona, homebuyer-assistance program, which required both her and her mother to take an eight-hour online course. She also received a $5,000 credit from Invitation Homes for closing costs and used her security deposit toward the down payment.’
‘That kind of help might lead to questions from lawmakers and regulators in Washington, according to Isaac Boltansky, an analyst in Washington with Compass Point Research & Trading LLC.’
“There’s inherent skepticism in D.C. regarding Wall Street’s motivations in the mortgage-finance market,” he said. “Novel forms of credit access are going to be scrutinized closely even though they purport to increase homeownership.”
Lik shooting fish in a barrel.
Repeatedly.
“A bankruptcy from more than a decade ago, along with a past sale of a home for less than what was owed on it”
How many times can one person choose to be a victim??
‘Suniga’s monthly mortgage payment will be$920, about $65 less than her rent, she said.
Now stack on taxes, insurance and losses to depreciation and she’s double her current rent.
DebtDonkeys just refuse to perform the math.
Ok, credit where credit is due - this is genius. It combines the reliance on government programs of Walmart with the predatory lending of Subprime and the quick little-value added profit of Flippers. All in one deal. At the same time! A shame such creativity is directed to the sole purpose of fleecing the hopelessly ignorant.
Also, math. “Values in Phoenix have since risen about 25 percent.” 25% of $83k purchase price = 20,750 + 83k = $103,750. Even if we accent current bubble values and assume Invitation got a bulk discount on a house that was maybe worth $100k retail at the time, she’s still overpaying by $25k, or 16% upfront, at least. That’s not even counting the $10,260 per year rent she paid for however long she’s been there. Wonder if that government-mandated finance class pointed this out.
‘In the last 18 months, 2,735 apartment units have been approved or built as part of 16 new residential complexes in New Hanover County and Wilmington, according to records provided by their respective planning departments. Three more complexes in Brunswick County total 374 units.’
‘The influx of one-, two- and three-bedroom units is the latest sign of an apartment boom some local experts attribute to a slump in low-end home inventory and a growing demand from millennials to retirees not interested in taking on a mortgage and the responsibility of home ownership.’
‘The complexes rising across the county — largely centered within Wilmington city limits — range in size from the 88-unit complex on North College Road to the 402-unit Gallery Park Apartments. They aren’t alone. Projects given the green light prior to January 2015 include 223 units at One Midtown Apartments on Independence Boulevard and Grand View Luxury Apartments.’
‘Ritchy admits the nearly 2,800 apartments entering the market is a “ little scary.” But she doesn’t foresee development tapering off. “When we start seeing occupancy and rent growth decline, I think they will slow down,” she said. “But I don’t think it will happen until then.”
‘While the apartment spike has been steep in recent years, Coleman said the number of units doesn’t necessarily translate into potential market overload. “Although it seems like a lot of units, they are staggered out in various stages of construction and development, so it shouldn’t affect (each other),” he said. “Plus, as I see it, they are also dispersed around the county.”’
Hehe…
‘When we start seeing occupancy and rent growth decline, I think they will slow down’
Stop spewing real estate propaganda here. As if these idiots don’t have the whole main stream media to spew their propaganda, they have to dirty even sources with real data such as this blog.
The difference between now and the post-2008 episode is that the Fed cannot pull the interest rate lever again to save housing, as rates are already at historically unprecedented lows.
Negative interest rates….some fools will confuse that as genuine demand.
dumb.borrowed.money always seems to short-circuit MT skulls.
Negative interest rates …
The miracle that converts a money consuming debt into a money generating asset.
Think of it: On balance sheets everywhere assets and liabilities get to swap places. Debt is wealth.
Is this What Hit Housing in San Francisco, Manhattan, and Miami? Suddenly, Foreign Investors Pull Back…
by Wolf Richter • July 7, 2016
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Chinese investors buy fewer homes in the US.
Oh no, we thought when we read the report from the National Association of Realtors. Not now! Not when there’s a huge unstoppable condo glut building up in the teetering housing markets of San Francisco, Manhattan, and Miami, when sales and prices are already dropping. Foreign investors are now needed more than ever to absorb this new high-end inventory and bail out these markets.
That’s what everyone has been praying for. The last thing we need is for Chinese investors to stay away from San Francisco and Manhattan; and Canadian, European, and Latin American investors to stay away from Miami.
But that’s what they’re starting to do – for the first time since the Financial Crisis….(continued)….
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/07/07/foreign-investors-chinese-pull-back-from-housing-in-san-francisco-manhattan-miami/
Fake economy fake demand…
“Led by Venezuela (45%) and Brazil (24%), at least eight countries, including China and Canada, saw double-digit percent increases in the median sales price of a U.S. existing-home when measured in their country’s currency.”
Thank you for that info., Palm Beach.
It’s succinct and useful. The numbers tell much of what one really needs to know. All the other numbers about units being built, sold, etc., are continually manipulated and restated by those in the business.
Currency conversion rates and the cost of money are harder to lie about.
Again, thanks.
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Jul 7, 2016 @ 12:49 PM
Should We Be Worried About Record-Low Interest Rates?
Brad McMillan, Contributor
I help Main Street investors understand and act on current news.
As headlines sound the alarm about rock-bottom interest rates around the world, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has hit all-time lows. What’s more, the yield curve (the difference between long-term and short-term rates) has also tumbled to very low levels. A collapse in the yield curve has often been linked to recession, particularly when the difference is below zero, as you can see in the chart.
…
Top News
Fri Jul 8, 2016 | 2:25 AM EDT
British property panic a red flag for banks, insurers
Workers stand on scaffolding on a new residential building at Battersea in London, Britain, March 7, 2016.
Reuters/Toby Melville/File Photo
By John O’Donnell and Lawrence White | FRANKFURT/ LONDON
(Reuters) - The run on British property funds has drawn attention to the vulnerability of the commercial real estate sector, largely funded by domestic banks and building societies but increasingly by foreign banks and insurers.
UK banks and building societies had around 90 billion pounds ($117 billion) in credit extended to domestic commercial real estate at the end of 2015, according to a study by De Montfort University.
German, other international and U.S. banks had 55 billion pounds of exposure, having increased their investments in the sector since the 2008 financial crisis. Insurers, which prior to the crisis had barely any exposure accounted for 25.9 billion.
This means they could all take a hit if Britain’s vote to leave the European Union leads to a slowdown in business investment and depresses demand for offices and shopping centers, as expected.
“There is a lot of uncertainty at the moment,” said Sonja Knorr, a funds analyst in Germany at rating agency Scope.
…
Business
UK property fund panic ‘looks a lot like the sell-off in 2008′
Friday, July 08, 2016
UK property funds with about £18bn (€21bn) of assets froze withdrawals as investors sought to dump real estate holdings in the aftermath of Britain’s vote to leave the EU.
“It’s reminiscent of Bear Stearns’ subprime funds before the Lehman debacle,” Bill Gross, a fund manager at Janus Capital said.
“The system doesn’t allow liquidity to flow into the proper places. If these property funds are just one indication, perhaps there will be others to follow. I think it’s something to worry about,” he said.
Henderson Global Investors, Columbia Threadneedle Investments and Canada Life suspended trading in at least £5.7bn of funds on Wednesday.
Aberdeen Fund Managers cut the value of a property fund by 17% and suspended redemptions so investors who asked for their money back have time to reconsider.
Legal & General Group said it is adjusting the value of its £2.3bn fund by an additional 10%.
Investors are pulling money from UK property funds as analysts warn London office values could fall by as much as 20% within three years of the country leaving the EU.
During the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008, real estate funds were similarly hit by redemptions and forced to halt withdrawals, contributing to a slump in property prices of more than 40% of their peak in Britain.
Wednesday’s moves brings the number of UK firms curbing redemptions to seven since the June 23 vote.
…
Did the music just stop playing, similar to what happened in the summer of 2007, when subprime was “contained”?
The Financial Times
Investments
Property funds in ‘vicious circle of redemptions’
Seven UK vehicles forced to suspend trading as fears sweep the sector
yesterday
by: Aime Williams and Judith Evans
It has been a tough week for commerical property funds. Amid volatile market conditions, seven large vehicles holding about £15bn between them have been forced to suspend trading, trapping investors’ money.
Funds run by Standard Life, Aviva and M&G halted trading this week after investors’ redemption requests ate into their holdings of cash and real estate investment trusts, which they generally hold alongside direct property assets.
As investor worries spread through the sector on Wednesday, Columbia Threadneedle and Henderson Global Investors also suspended their UK property funds while Canada Life halted trading in a smaller property fund holding £222m of real estate.
On the same day, Aberdeen Asset Management applied a 17 per cent discount to its fund as it fought to keep providing liquidity, only to announce a day later that it would block withdrawals until next week.
Fund groups say that while suspending trading does trap investors’ money, it also helps to ensure that those who cash out of the funds early do not leave the rest of the investors to bear the burden of price falls in the market.
Even so, the suspensions have raised questions about open-ended property funds including whether the liquidity risk they entail — and the possibility of money being held — is well understood by retail investors.
…
Dallas shooting…next civil war looming
It only means the fed will flood the stawks and housing with money…To the moon, alice!
The gun-grabbing will begin in earnest.
“A house divided against itself cannot stand.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3680097/Protests-sweep-nation-thousands-demand-justice-Alton-Sterling-Philando-Castile-black-men-shot-dead-police.html
There is only one appropriate response to the social unrest sweeping our cities: the Fed must announce NIRP and QE4 at once, and gift more trillions in printing-press gambling money to its Wall Street cohorts.
Yes. The only appropriate response by the Fed.
As for individuals they should do their part by cashing out equity and applying for reverse mortgages.
Obviously another false flag opera by Obama and the gun grabbers. Buy mor gunz!
“Dallas shooting…next civil war looming”
This is exactly why our fore fathers wanted the civilian population to have access to weapons, not for dinner hunting. Voting from a rooftop is a symptom of larger issues such as too much debt, off-shored jobs, etc., and no way out. I hope that the underlying root cause is not glossed-over.
I don’t have time to post much today but will comment to predict that the response to this, irrespective of politics, will be an increase in authoritarianism.
That may literally be the response to everything that happens nowadays.
This is exactly why our fore fathers wanted the civilian population to have access to weapons, not for dinner hunting. Voting from a rooftop is a symptom of larger issues such as too much debt, off-shored jobs, etc., and no way out. I hope that the underlying root cause is not glossed-over.
So you’re saying that founding fathers would approve of these Dallas shooters. I don’t recall reading anything about them in school that would indicate such attitudes.
Their history of shooting at the enforcers of their British rulers, perhaps?
Dallas shooting…next civil war looming ??
Vigilante justice against what some see as out of control and immune police officers…It was bound to happen…Civil war ?? Only if Trump gets elected and plunges this country into a depression…The good news is that is highly unlikely…
People like you bore me….
Everything is about red team vs blue team.
Everything is about red team vs blue team ??
I am neither red nor blue dude….Will see in October what the markets tells us about the potential of a Trump presidency…Right now its saying no chance…
So please explain how a Hillary presidency will result in any different outcome.
So please explain how a Hillary presidency will result in any different outcome ??
Because of Bill….
Hello everyone, please say hi to the dumbest person on earth…..
Hi, butters.
We’ve been in an economic depression in case you haven’t noticed.
Goon’s long hot summer has arrived.
Burn baby burn.
I still bet that stawks and housing will go thru the roof even if everything is burned to ground. Yep, the market. LOL
I don’t think so. More and more people buying downtown real estate are going to be taking a long view and reassessing the risks, especially in cities maladministered by corrupt, incompetent Democrat administrations, i.e. virtually all of our urban centers. Who wants to buy insanely overpriced real estate in municipalities that are doomed to become dystopian wastelands a la Baltimore, Chicago, or Detroit?
This probably won’t be up very long.
Graphic video of Dallas shooting suspect aired on TV - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-23nlUpUte0 - 170k - Cached - Similar pages
7 hours ago .
A comment on that video, I was thinking something similar as I was watching the video:
“… Observe the way this suspect is maneuvering that rifle and how his feet are evenly spaced as he moves. This person obviously has had CQC (Close Quarters Combat) Training. He uses cover, even knows how to stay calm under fire and fires back without hesitation. Very steady and yet some how calm. This person is trained to kill, this is not some hoodlum who picked up a rifle and just started shooting today for the first time in their life. They clearly have experience and it’s terrifying. This was a well planned and coordinated attack….”
Most likely US military trained. Coming home to roost….Train them to kill and when they are done killing brownies in deserts…what what to do?
That reminds me of a scene in the movie Full Metal Jacket.
HARTMAN: Do any of you people know who Charles Whitman was? None of you dumbasses knows? Private Cowboy?
COWBOY: Sir, he was that guy who shot all those people from that tower in Austin, Texas, sir!
HARTMAN: That’s affirmative. Charles Whitman killed twelve people from a twenty-eight-storey observation tower at the University of Texas from distances up to four hundred yards. Anybody know who Lee Harvey Oswald was? Private Snowball?
SNOWBALL: Sir, he shot Kennedy, sir!
HARTMAN: That’s right, and do you know how far away he was?
SNOWBALL: Sir, it was pretty far! From that book suppository building, sir!
HARTMAN: All right, knock it off! Two hundred and fifty feet! He was two hundred and fifty feet away and shooting at a moving target. Oswald got off three rounds with an old Italian bolt action rifle in only six seconds and scored two hits, including a head shot! Do any of you people know where these individuals learned to shoot? Private Joker?
JOKER: Sir, in the Marines, sir!
HARTMAN: In the Marines! Outstanding! Those individuals showed what one motivated marine and his rifle can do! And before you ladies leave my island, you will be able to do the same thing!
That reminds me of a scene in the movie Full Metal Jacket.
Full Metal Jacket (1987)
Da Nang Hooker: Hey, baby. You got girlfriend Vietnam?
Private Joker: Not just this minute.
Da Nang Hooker: Well, baby, me so horny. Me so HORNY. Me love you long time. You party?
Private Joker: Yeah, we might party. How much?
Da Nang Hooker: Fifteen dollar.
Private Joker: Fifteen dollars for both of us?
Da Nang Hooker: No. Each you fifteen dollar. Me love you long time. Me so HORNY.
Private Joker: Fifteen dollar too beaucoup. Five dollars each.
Da Nang Hooker: Me xxxxx-xxxxx. Me love you too much.
Private Joker: Five dollars is all my mom allows me to spend.
Da Nang Hooker: Okay. Ten dollar each.
Private Joker: What do we get for ten dollars?
Da Nang Hooker: Every t’ing you want.
Private Joker: Everything?
Da Nang Hooker: Every t’ing.
Private Joker: [to Rafterman] Well, old buddy, feel like spending some of your hard-earned money?
Love you long time - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mlVBs86N7E - 251k -
Train them to kill and when they are done killing brownies in deserts…what what to do ??
The gift that keeps giving from Bush & Cheeney….
The gift that keeps giving from Bush & Cheeney….
You forgot the juicy part….continued by your boi, Omaba.
boi ??
Bigoted much ? A trumpeter I suppose also…
bigoted
LOL…does your micro-aggression see no boundary? Were you butt-hurt by Trump’s star of the david?
Obama gets his race war that he has pushed for eight years.
He will blame guns and push for massive gun control.
“Never let a crisis go to waste.” — Rahm Emmanuel
How many more police officers will be murdered in obama’s last six months….?
It will probably depend on how many seemingly innocent people cops kill.
Your progressive racist meme is breaking down
Dallas police shooting: ‘Black Power group’ claims responsibility for police killings and warns of more assassinations to come
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/dallas-police-shooting-black-power-8378177
Now that African Americans are arming themselves with high powered rifles, the frightened old white guys at the NRA will be talking about how we need to limit their second amendment rights.
Time to stop policing inner city neighborhoods I suppose. We can make little enclaves “Escape from New York” style.
That may just be the most important quote of Obama’s administration.
And Rahm was his first bad decision, with the most damaging quote of them all:
“F’em, we’ve got the votes”. Put us on the path we are on with divisive politics.
“He will blame guns and push for massive gun control.”
Touchdown
It might just work.
Lately we have seen more and more “people of colors” committing mass murders, the white NRA crowd may suddenly change its tune. Wouldn’t surprise me a bit if it happens
Yea, those NRA types are scared to death.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZE-EDGw2vo
I live in an area (the whole State actually) that is flooded with various sorts of weaponry. Everyone has guns, lots and lots of guns.
Yet I can’t remember the last time someone around here got shot.
Not once has our local newspaper flashed stories about “the streets rising up to take yet another life”, “gunshots ringing out” or insinuating that a victim was “someone that just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time”.
We also don’t have midnight basketball anti-crime programs, marches (riots) to “end the violence” and “stop the killing” or protests to demand that the Government create more “programs to stop the killing” that in the end simply means send us “Mo money”.
If one looks at any State or Federal crime stats involving murder and guns it will quickly become apparent that the gun violence problem in this Country has virtually nothing to do with any “White NRA members”.
I know dozens of kids like the one in the above video. Lots of luck to the Government when it comes to their gun control plan.
Not once has our local newspaper flashed stories about “the streets rising up to take yet another life”, “gunshots ringing out” or insinuating that a victim was “someone that just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time”.
We also don’t have midnight basketball anti-crime programs, marches (riots) to “end the violence” and “stop the killing” or protests to demand that the Government create more “programs to stop the killing” that in the end simply means send us “Mo money”.
So either police are well behaved, or, if they are killing civilians without justification, the population doesn’t care.
Two primary forces are going on with the Black Lives Matter movement:
1) Legitimate fears that a panicky policeman, seeing a black guy, will be much quicker on the trigger, and a tragedy results, as apparently in the Castile case. Castile was, from all I’ve read so far, an upstanding citizen. I saw his girlfriend’s Facebook video, and she repeats over and over, something to the effect of “Lord knows we’re innocent people”.
2) It is a front for an underclass that is essentially unemployable and sees petty crime as the only way it can economically get ahead. Biggie Smalls sang in “Juicy”:
“Yeah, this album is dedicated to all the teachers that told me
I’d never amount to nothin’, to all the people that lived above the
buildings that I was hustlin’ in front of that called the police on
me when I was just tryin’ to make some money to feed my daughter”
The first issue, the entire population can relate to. The second is confined to the black underclass primarily (and to a lesser degree, the white underclass).
A complex issue.
Kaboom
——
The Party Is Over: Foreign Interest In US Real Estate Tumbles To 3 Year Lows
Zerohedge - Jul 8, 2016
The housing market in key regions across the United States has been cooling, something that we have covered extensively, especially when it comes to New York, Miami, and California.
Any hopes that foreign buyers would continue to rush into the US tripping over themselves for an opportunity to park money in a “safe” real estate asset have been dashed according to a survey by the National Association of Realtors released Wednesday.
Purchases of US residential real estate by foreigners fell 1.3% y/y from $103.9bn in 2015 to $102.6bn in 2016 (year ended March 2016). As shown below, the main buyer by dollar volume was China, contributing nearly 27% of the total.
Foreigners losing interest, or financially tapped out?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-07/party-over-foreign-interest-us-real-estate-tumbles-3-year-lows
Can someone be president if they don’t have a security clearance?
Only a sexist would vote for Hillary.
and neocons
No, just Hillary.
Her lizard powers exonerate her.
If the majority of the electorate are amoral and stupid, and a different standard applies for the .1%, then yes.
I know that anyone else who had a security clearance, obtained access to classified info, then did what she did, would be in jail. Anyone other than Teflon Clintons and their ilk, that is.
The FBI has determined that someone can be president if they did not intend to know what a security clearance or Top Secret information was.
There have probably been only 1 or 2 presidents who had a security clearance.
“There have probably been only 1 or 2 presidents who had a security clearance.”
Were they “extremely careless” when handling classified information too?
Gee, I don’t know, but it’s beside the point.
No answer to that on the SPLC crawler?
Twitter, which actively censors and shuts down conservative voices, gives free rein to users openly calling for violence against police.
http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/07/08/tensions-rise-threats-police-increase-twitter/
There’s only so much whining the servers can take.
They just need to boycott the MSM and its apparatus. Hit them where it hurts. But of course they won’t….they will just whine and cheese.
…and buy more guns that they will never have the guts to use.
crushing.housing.losses.
Gun stocks on a tear…go figure.
http://www.businessinsider.com/gun-stocks-are-surging-2016-7
Never let a crisis go to waste.
The democrats will push for gun control before the funerals.
Even though obama’s anti police hate, BLM hate illegals and or muslims most likely are the murderers.
Funny how the police have had three suspects in custody for nearly 12 hours but have said nothing on them.
It seems only if a white police officer or a confederate flag is involved do we find out immediately and will be in the news cycle 24/7.
As others have noted, the one guy in the video conducts himself as a well-trained professional, not as an angry hoodlum. Raises a lot of questions.
Like a trained muslim terrorist who was imported without vetting in obama’s muslim refugee scam?
Ha..always looking for the narrative.
He’s a moosleem terrrist because he once played pick-up basketball with a member of Nation of Islam, right?
Jesus…can’t decide what’s worse?
He’s black. That’s enough to make him scary. The Muslim part is a smoke screen for the racism.
Terror trauma! Save me Obama!
How look how BLM is responding.
Maybe Jesus can help decide then.
https://m.imgur.com/a/6YSUI
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-cia-tweets-raid-on-anniversary-of-osama-bin-laden-death-20160502-story.html
Look how this country’s leaders gleefully watching a murder of an unarmed man in the middle of the night…..
What RACE is a muslim?
I will wait for you to tap dance around your racist response.
The blatant, open support for terrorism by the BLM posters is telling. Nothing like their own unfiltered joy in the deaths of police officers to rip off the mask, despite the best efforts of the MSM apologists to sanitize the movement.
“What RACE is a muslim?”
That was the point, lackwit.
On the radio this morning they mentioned that they caught the (white) guy who was killing homeless people in San Francisco. They gave his first, middle and last name as well as his date of birth. So far nothing on these cop killers.
Jingle Male…in answer to your question about where to store PM’s, this book has some suggestions:
https://www.scribd.com/doc/3261302/How-to-Hide-Anything
Those with empty pockets and up to their neck in debt have no gold.
I received my DRAM settlement check…$35.14, lol
http://dramclaims.wpengine.com/
“One In Three American Welfare Recipients Resides In California”
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/437522/california-economy-government-crumble-while-elites-watch
87% of welfarians vote dem
Forward, Soviet!
13% are too dumb to vote in their best interest.
95% of the electorate are too dumb to vote in their own interests. I give you Exhibit A: the vote totals for Obama, McCain, and Romney.
And now the U.S. Capitol building is on lockdown, sketchy report about a woman with a gun…
I hope she has lots of ammo.
Would you say the same thing if she was headed towards WH?
She wouldn’t need so much there, now would she?
Protected by Capitol police vs Secret Service….which one would require more ammo?
Maybe if she were a ninja, she wouldn’t need any at all. Why are these questions not answered by the media? Is this woman a ninja? A pirate? A robot? We’ll never know!
THANKS OBAMA!
Here’s some free investing advice that typically costs $5 million: Investment firm that called the 2008-09 crash doesn’t like most stocks or bonds:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investment-firm-that-called-the-2008-09-crash-doesnt-like-most-stocks-or-bonds-2016-07-08
Right on cue, here come’s the MSM financial media cheerleaders and touts with their “Yellen is really, really serious about raising rates this time.” NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN! Raising rates = crashing the Fed’s Ponzi markets, and we can’t have that unless Trump gets elected.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-rate-hike-back-on-table-but-likely-not-july-after-strong-jobs-report-2016-07-08
94,517,000 ‘Muricans “not in the labor force” in our Obama-Fed-Goldman Sachs “recovery” won’t be buying houses.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/07/08/94517000-americans-not-labor-force/
Claims that one of the Dallas shooters was a US Army veteran who wanted to “kill white people.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-08/dallas-shooter-upset-about-black-lives-matter-wanted-kill-white-people-especially-wh
You can’t post ZeroHedge links here, please stick with the Washington Post.
I get all my news from Alex Jones.
Not working..you still sound dumb though.
Sometimes Alex Jones annoys the snot outta me, but I have to say, today he’s hitting it out of the park. Good on ya, Alex.
http://www.infowars.com/culprits-behind-dallas-police-massacre-revealed/
Well, he did kill quite a few white people, so that seems like a pretty solid theory.
When I first read that sentence, I read the word “theory” as “therapy”.
And it’s way past coffee time.
Now thats funny right there!
Work out that feeling of oppression, and relax, by shooting some white people.
yeah, for a minute there I thought you’d really gone around the bend, lol. Then my eyes focused.
I think it’s a good idea to short or limit TOL, PHM, and other home builders, also AVB (high end luxury apartment REIT), HD and LOW.
I would think 2012 or 2013 stock price levels for the above might be in store.
The average hourly increase in earnings among Americans increased only 2.9% Y-O-Y yet still far behind the house prices and rent increases, particularly in the coastal states.
Some large company stocks have dropped 30% or more from their highs of the last 24 months but housing prices have in general kept going up. This is why I expect another housing crash or a severe correction more than of stocks.
My ten year notes and 5 year notes are maturing this year and next year, so instead of going for lower rates I am adding money to my brokerage account to put limits on equities.
I am shorting Toyota, First Solar, Microsoft, Macy’s, Whole Foods Market, and want to add AAPL, AAL, and TOL to the list. SCTY is also worth shorting.
The Reno Carson market has Tesla fever, its amazing all the upside down people think the tesla 15$ an hour employees are going to buy there 400k dollar 1970’s crap shacks… lots of speculation blackstone and clear capital bought up all the crap on the courthouse steps for 2 years paying way to much given the incomes in northern nevada.
Now here comes the correction mls listings up 20% and sales slowing, it will adjust….again.. even more if Tesla’s ponzi scheem come full circle…
casino jobs do wonders for 400k shanties.
According to a February RGJ article there’s also a ton of shadow inventory the banks are sitting on. Anyone know if that’s still the case?
It’s amazing watching the people around me getting buy now or be priced out forever fever. Do we never learn?
As an aside my rent just increased but the property management company was kind enough to point out that it’s still below market value. Now isn’t that special of them.
Micah Xavier Johnson
Why such a nice christian man would do such a thing?
Because Jesus own sex slaves, was a slave trader, a serial pedophile, a mass murderer, gemcidial leader, personally executed infidels and hated dogs….?
And wrote “holy book” honoring these behaviors.
Oh wait..
Have you read old testament?
Have you read the Gospels in which Christianity is based?
You know the ones.
Funny how Jesus owned not one sex slave or never told his followers to kill, rape or enslaved infidels…
Or are you using the “all religions are equal” progressive talking points?
Probably because he was “weaponized” by some folks up the line.
That’s my guess, anyway.
One thing for sure….no one’s talking about Hillary today.
BLM statement via twitter…its not going over very well with everyone judging by the comments:
https://twitter.com/Blklivesmatter/status/751311826013417472
State Dept. reopens investigation into Hillary’s emails:
http://www.reviewjournal.com/politics/state-department-reopens-investigation-hillary-clinton-s-emails
“But Kirby said this week former officials can still face “administrative sanctions.” The most serious is loss of security clearances, which could complicate Clinton’s naming of a national security team if she becomes president.”
Can you have a president who has been stripped of security clearance?
It’s like drafting a one-legged basketball player into the NBA.
“Can you have a president who has been stripped of security clearance?”
I read somewhere there are several levels higher of security clearance than the president, at least the current president.
She will have to sit in the lobby while the grownups talk.
No she will probably install a server with windows DOS in her basement and download all top secret documents.
As long as it’s DOS 3.1.
DOS 3.0 was a piece of crap.
lol.
No she is going with Windows ME….gotta get those Bernie’s millennials.
Bitcoin Block reward halving in one day, 9 minutes and 30 seconds.
The race war will be epic.
Every race group has US military trained personnel. Your tax dollar at work.
I hope Oxide bought silver
Wish there were minig companies/stocks that didn’t sc k
Dallas police shooting: ‘Black Power group’ claims responsibility for police killings and warns of more assassinations to come http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/dallas-police-shooting-black-power-8378177
Do you think this will affect vacancy rates and rental prices of the tens of thousands of apartments being built right now in the city of Dallas and the whole meme of people wanting to move back to the urban core?
According to this article http://www.dallasobserver.com/news/dallas-biggest-boom-neighborhoods-8388788 only 24% of the new housing units are being built downtown. But this is because 76% of new housing units here are single family houses.
If you read further down, and look at the map of Multi-Family by Zip, almost all multi-family projects are in downtown Dallas.
‘Kill whitey’ might put a bit of a damper on that.
Because as much as the anger might be officially about police shootings of blacks, the truth is all this gentrification of downtown Dallas has been pushing out a lot of poor people who, increasingly, have nowhere to go.
And who are they going to take their anger out on?
Looks like it’s still focused on the cops… but people are nutty.
Wu-Tang Clan — Enter The 36 Chambers (1993):
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jOLuW2w5kgg
Staten Island, New York City, although everybody knows that rap was born in the South Bronx, not in Queens.
Fast forward to 17:48 to hear the best song on the album.
A repost (with Ben Jones gracious permission) of Ice Cube’s debut solo album:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrwmAcrJr2U
This is America, 1990.
Has anything changed?
Because it sure doesn’t feel like it…
“Fast forward to 17:48 to hear the best song on the album.”
I did, It’s kinda like soccer to me, I know other people like it, I try to like it but I just cant. I guess I’m just too old.
Anyway, at the end of the song when the dudes are talking to each other and saying… you know what I’m sayin’
Reminded me of this kid on a job back in the 90s. His father who was a really good carpenter was a friend of mine and had gotten his kid the job. The kid was in his early twenties and had been doing some minor screwing up. He was a young white kid who at the time wished he was a gangsta and talked like the dudes on that album.
I was talking to him after we had got to know each other and in the conversation he said… you know what I’m sayin’
I said whoa whoa whoa, if I don’t know what the fuqe you are saying I will tell you I don’t know what the fuqe you are saying so stop saying that.
The kids eyes got real big and his father got a big smile on his face.
But…but…narrative!
http://gotnews.com/breaking-philandocastile-falconheightsshooting-crips-gangmember/
the most hated stock market rally in history just seems to have magical power to keep levitating.