What Made Sense Before The Crash Has Flipped
A weekend look at multi-family housing starting with the Northern Nevada Business Weekly. “The Reno market is increasingly attractive to out-of-state investors. ‘Investors in Reno don’t see the same value as investors from San Francisco or San Diego,” Kenneth Blomsterberg, first vice president investments with Marcus & Millichap, said in a phone interview with NNBW. ‘Ten years ago they wouldn’t have considered Reno.’ Investors ‘are chasing yields,’ he said.”
“Recently Blomsterberg brokered the sale of the 184-unit Willowbrook Apartments in Reno to Encinitas, Calif.-based The Apartment Company. It’s the fifth multi-family complex in Reno purchased by the company. They are C-class apartments in a B-Class neighborhood, Blomsterberg explained. ‘The goal is to reposition the property,’ Blomsterberg said. To ‘bring a C property to a B-minus, or a B property.’”
“Blomsterberg said his associates see a lot of multi-family property investors from the Bay Area, Sacramento and San Diego looking for property in the Reno area. Recently, a buyer from Omaha, Neb., began looking for a first investment in this market. Another investor from Vancouver, BC is ‘rooting around Reno,’ he said. Now, it’s not unusual to have 8-10 offers for a property from as far away as Connecticut and New York, Blomsterberg said. ‘The market is just red hot,’ he said.”
Crain’s Chicago Business in Illinois. “Condominium owners in a Lincoln Park high-rise have voted to sell the entire building to an investor that plans to convert it to apartments, possibly the biggest deal of its kind in Chicago. Strategic Properties of North America has agreed to buy Clark Place Private Residences, a 133-unit building, confirmed Sam Haddadin, president of the building’s condo board. The building, which was converted from apartments to condos in 2005, will become a rental property once again, a switch that’s becoming more common in Chicago amid the hot apartment market.”
“Historically, developers have preferred to convert apartments to condos. That made sense before the crash, when condo buyers were willing to pay higher prices for converted apartments than apartment investors would, creating an arbitrage opportunity for developers. But the market has flipped. Though condo prices are recovering, apartment values have soared even more in recent years, meaning the pricing spread works the other way.”
WFSU in Florida. “Leon County and Tallahassee’s changing property market is a big part of the race for property appraiser. Former Leon County Commissioner and architect Akin Akinyemi says some of the increase in student housing, has been driven by the federal government: ‘The federal government, in 2009, when they passed the recovery act, there was a hefty portion for student dormitory loans,’ Akinyemi said. ‘That really flourished the industry.’”
“At issue is whether Tallahassee is over-built in student housing. And Clay Ketcham says those larger, historical student complexes located far from the center of town are now experiencing cash flow problems. ‘Rent reductions, and they’re experiencing higher vacancies. With those two things. Their property is worth less than it was,’ he said.”
The Miami Herald in Florida. “A luxury condo project slated for Miami’s quiet Morningside neighborhood hasn’t been as popular as its developer, Venezuelan oil man Gerardo Pantin Shortt, had hoped. Sales have been suspended at Boulevard 57, an eight-story tower at 5700 Biscayne Blvd. where units start at $600,000, a spokeswoman for Pantin confirmed.”
“A strong dollar and weak economies abroad are crippling the foreign buyers who snapped up Miami properties over the past few years. Several new projects have been canceled or put on hold as sales slump, including Ion East in Edgewater and the Collection Residences in Coral Gables. Boulevard 57 had pitched its off-the-beach location as appealing to domestic buyers. But it appears they didn’t bite.”
“‘I think the industry expected the project to get put on hold,’ said Peter Zalewski, a South Florida real estate analyst. ‘They were a victim of market timing. I was invited to the launch party [last month] and at the time I told everyone I knew to go because I thought it would be the last launch party of this real estate cycle. … Going forward, you’re likely to see more projects get shelved.’”
From Planet Jackson Hole in Wyoming. “A last minute ‘tweak’ has turned into a full-time haggle as the mayor and town council try to incentivize workforce housing in the downtown core. Even as the town moves forward, opposition continues. At its July 5 meeting, the Jackson Town Council voted unanimously to allow short-term rentals in the downtown core as a bonus to developers for building workforce housing. The ordinance was amended to include a cap that will limit the amount of development possible—for the time being, in the small downtown core.”
“The cap, or governor, would limit the use of the short-term rentals bonus to up to 100,000 square feet. Councilman Jim Stanford, who had originally been against short-term rentals, voted for the ordinance, he said, because of the added cap. ‘It takes away some of my worries about ending up with a glut of high-end condos,’ he explained.”
‘Since the downturn in oil prices over the last two years, Houston’s multifamily market has been one of the most impacted victims of the area’s economic slowdown. Oil and gas is estimated to represent about one-fifth of Houston’s economy. This does not include construction and other new development that depends on the oil and gas industry.’
‘On the supply side, permits for 16,462 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in April 2016, down 3,422 units from the prior year’s total. This shows that the market is probably overbuilt as new multifamily construction outpaces the job growth in the area.’
‘Apartment renters in Houston are reporting lower incomes as job rates continue to decline amid the oil and gas slump. According to MPF Research, renters in 2015 reported a 4.2 percent lower income compared to renters in 2014.’
‘To keep occupancy rates up, many apartment owners and managers in Houston have been offering more one and two-month rent concessions.’
‘While new apartments are overbuilt, older multifamily properties have the potential for significant price increases this year. The market for affordable Class B and Class C units is highly competitive. There is a market for older properties that can be upgraded and modernized even during the oil and gas decline.’
‘Returns for these assets are strong and first-year returns range from 6 to 9 percent, depending on how much deferred maintenance there is, how much of the rent roll is under market, and other factors. Value-add projects are most successful in markets where there is a wide range between the average rental price of a new Class A apartment compared to Class B or Class C units.’
‘While new apartments are overbuilt, older multifamily properties have the potential for significant price increases this year.’
And the eating of the seed-corn continues. These guys won’t stop “chasing yield” until they’re all out of business.
Yesterday I posted an article on Houston. Said the median price was at an all time high. Hands up those who think house prices are going up in Houston. The median is a flawed, lagging indicator.
‘This week, we released the June 2016 Lubbock Area Housing market report. In this aggressive seller’s market, buyers need to plan their strategy a little differently. Home are being sold very quickly – sometimes in a matter of hours – so there’s not the luxury of being able to think on it a few days. It also means you been to be flexible on what meets your needs. Your Lubbock Realtor can help you decide what you can – and can’t – live without.’
‘Get your financing in order. Before you begin your home search, have your financing in order. Preapproval (stronger than prequalification) from a lender will help you be able to act quickly and puts you in a better position to make an offer.’
That’s right, there’s a shortage of land and everybody wants to live in Lubbock.
This came out a week ago. The cows are gone, time to shut the barn door:
‘Credit risks have risen in U.S. commercial real estate as lenders compete more fiercely in a low rate environment, a federal banking regulator said on Monday, adding that it was stepping up its scrutiny of the sector.’
‘The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) said in its semiannual risk report that while the financial performance of lenders improved in 2015 compared to a year earlier, credit risks were higher across the industry.’
‘The U.S. Federal Reserve has kept interest rates low for more than seven years to help the U.S. economy recover from the 2008 financial crisis. But that policy is also weighing on bank profits and pushing lenders to compete more fiercely for worthy borrowers. That competitive pressure is increasing risk, the OCC said.’
“It’s at this stage of the cycle that we also see strong loan growth combined with easing underwriting to result in increased credit risk,” Comptroller of the Currency Thomas Curry said in prepared remarks.’
‘The agency has escalated its oversight of commercial real estate risk from ordinary monitoring to “additional emphasis.” It also flagged risks in commercial and industrial loans, and said concerns remain about indirect auto lending and leveraged lending, which are both issues the OCC has flagged in the past.’
‘The U.S. Federal Reserve has kept interest rates low for more than seven years to help the U.S. economy recover from the 2008 financial crisis. But that policy is also weighing on bank profits and pushing lenders to compete more fiercely for worthy borrowers. That competitive pressure is increasing risk, the OCC said.’
And now the Fed has replaced a steady drumbeat of forward guidance on liftoff with tacit acknowledgment of no planned rate increases until 2018 or later.
I guess they would rather let it collapse of its own weight than risk accusations that the Fed deliberately popped a bubble.
I guess they would rather let it collapse of its own weight than risk accusations that the Fed deliberately popped a bubble.
The difference is that the Housing Bubble v1.0 was relatively organic in nature from what I could tell (modulo the prevalent psychology that was arguably caused by the Fed having caused the Tech Bubble and subsequent rout); however, Housing Bubble v2.0 was essentially an intentional creation of the Fed. And after 1.0, they were given even more regulatory authority, so the responsibility for having a duty to prevent it rather than intentionally spawning it is clear.
So whether HB2.0 pops of its own accord, or whether they help pop it matters little; in either case, the responsibility lies directly at their feet.
“…however, Housing Bubble v2.0 was essentially an intentional creation of the Fed.”
Really?
‘The federal government, in 2009, when they passed the recovery act, there was a hefty portion for student dormitory loans,’ Akinyemi said…At issue is whether Tallahassee is over-built in student housing. And Clay Ketcham says those larger, historical student complexes located far from the center of town are now experiencing cash flow problems. ‘Rent reductions, and they’re experiencing higher vacancies. With those two things. Their property is worth less than it was,’
The dry-cleaner effect
They’re not older, they are “historical”.
‘I think the industry expected the project to get put on hold,’ said Peter Zalewski, a South Florida real estate analyst. ‘They were a victim of market timing. I was invited to the launch party [last month] and at the time I told everyone I knew to go because I thought it would be the last launch party of this real estate cycle.’
Told everyone to go. Let’s get the last of the free cheese and wine.
Keeping an eye on Florida….
The Wrap: Life goes on at CityPlace West Palm Beach despite mortgage woes, Boca’s luxury Via Mizner project nears completion of first phase…and more
July 15, 2016 06:15PM
http://therealdeal.com/miami/2016/07/15/the-wrap-life-goes-on-at-cityplace-west-palm-beach-despite-mortgage-woes-bocas-luxury-via-mizner-project-nears-completion-of-first-phase-and-more/
No one has enough eyes to follow South Florida. What If I said that several well-known shopping centers in Palm Beach and Miami have been built with laundered coke money? I always thought they should erect a stature of a man seated at a table with drug paraphernalia in the center of Cocoplum, the coming Collection’s new development and at the Shops at the Falls.
I thought it was of interest this week that The WSJ ran an article mentioning that CALPERS manages $300 Billion and Blackstone $4.89 Trillion. Blackstone is now a sovereign nation. Calpers is 6% of Blackstone. $4.89 trillion is five times more than the calculated worth of Exxon’s oil reserves. Can you wrap your head around these numbers? What don’t they own a piece of?
What real estate does Blackstone own/manage ?
I think you mean BlackRock:
BlackRock: Financial Planning & Investment Management
https://www.blackrock.com/investing/
BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager
Yes, BlackRock.
We need to cut off the borrowing and make people produce.
“We”? You have no say in the matter, peasant. Your .1% betters want more debt slaves, and the Fed and middle class taxpayers have their backs. So do the 95% of the electorate that bend over for Wall Street water carriers election after election.
Who will buy the products when broke people can’t borrow?
Some of those products will become entitlements.
Entitlements like soc sec and medicare. 11k boomers turn 65 each day for the next 15 yrs.
And they’re all going in the ground every day for the next 30 years.
Buy crematorium stock.
make people produce
Set up gulags and put people to work.
“make people produce”
“Set up gulags and put people to work.”
Set up financial gulags and entice people to willingly and eagerly and enthusiastically imprison themselves in them.
lol@donks
‘It takes away some of my worries about ending up with a glut of high-end condos,’
I can’t put my finger on it, but I sense there must be some kind of government incentive program to build high-end condos which underlies this concern. Otherwise why would builders build a glut, fully cognizant they were going to end up with a bunch of unwanted, unneeded product which would only sell at a loss?
It’s airbnb. The builders already sold. This same paper will routinely report they don’t have housing for the local workers.
Makes sense. Seems like the Airbnb business model might eventually run aground, though, if the hotelier lobby gets sufficiently organized.
‘Ten years ago they wouldn’t have considered Reno.’ Investors ‘are chasing yields,’
What happens when yields are ‘chased’ all the way to zero and beyond? Do investments which will produce nothing of value in return or only pencil out at a loss suddenly appear worth the expenditure of time and resources needed to undertake them?
Oh wait!
“Do investments which will produce nothing of value in return or only pencil out at a loss suddenly appear worth the expenditure of time and resources needed to undertake them?”
They do if the investment money belongs to somebody else and you get to extract some hefty fees.
A good return on somebody else’s money that you get to manage means never having to say you’re sorry.
Has quantitative easing created a bond yield gravity vortex from which there is no escape? Time will tell!
Here’s why 10-year Treasury may still drop below 1%
By Ellie Ismailidou
Published: July 15, 2016 3:56 p.m. ET
Japanese purchases of U.S. bonds reached a record last week
Old Visuals/Everett Collection
The 10-year Treasury yield has tumbled to record lows—and it could fall even further, some analysts say.
The U.S. government bond market has been flirting with record low yields but some analysts and strategist think that yields could fall even further.
Pressures from foreign buyers—most notably Japanese investors who bought an all-time high amount of U.S. debt last week—have been driving prices higher and pushing yields to record lows, leading some analysts to forecast that the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield will fall below 1% in the next six to nine months.
Wall Street analysts have warned that Treasurys are at their most expensive level ever but appetite from foreign buyers, in particular Japan, might continue to put pressure on yields, these strategists argue.
Last week, Tom di Galoma managing director at Seaport Global Holdings, revised his 10-year yield outlook to 0.9% from 1.4% within six to nine months.
…
‘Ten years ago they wouldn’t have considered Reno.’ Investors ‘are chasing yields,’
They are going to get their rear ends handed to them.
“Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other.”
Nothing was learned from the previous meltdown. Nothing.
What was learned from the last meltdown was that fools who should have their asses handed to them will get bailouts.
“Nice, France: It’s pronounced neece, not nice; they have no word for nice in French.” - Will Rogers
The newest narrative on Nice is that the killer ate pork, drank alcohol, and did not attend mosque. And that he beat his wife.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/07/16/world/europe/a-surly-misfit-with-no-terror-links-turned-a-truck-into-a-tank.html
Lot of surly misfits around here too…
It’s not so nice over there now.
Fundamental transformation has a way of destroying the quality of life for all but a corrupt and venal .1% in the financial sector.
UC Berkeley: Student from Del Mar among dead in Nice attack
Posted: Jul 15, 2016 1:06 PM PST
Updated: Jul 17, 2016 7:33 PM PST
Video Report By CBS News 8 Team
DEL MAR (CNS) - The Del Mar man and UC Berkeley student who was in Nice, France on Thursday was confirmed Sunday as one of those killed in the Bastille Day terrorist attack, according to university officials.
Nicolas Leslie, who graduated from Torrey Pines High School, had been studying in Nice as part of Cal’s Study Abroad program. He was identified Sunday by the FBI as among the 84 people killed.
Leslie, 20, was one of 85 participants in a summer entrepreneurship program. Unaccounted for since the truck attack in which another 200 were injured, he had been the subject of an extensive search by university staff, local officials and family.
His death was reported to campus officials by the FBI, which was notified by its French counterparts earlier Sunday.
“This is tragic, devastating news,” UC Berkeley Chancellor Nicholas Dirks said. “All of us in the UC Berkeley family, both here on campus, and around the world, are heartbroken to learn that another promising young student has been lost to senseless violence.”
“I join Nick’s parents, friends and the entire campus community in condemning this horrific attack, and in mourning the loss of one of our own,” Dirks said in a statement.
…
Looks like the coup failed. How long will it take Erdogan to turn Turkey into a radical Islamic nation state?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CJjuVzZQj0U
No star award for a fail coup.
Yesterday there was a discussion about the original strawberry pickers and their ridiculous mortgage, and how that mortgage resembled the new HomeReady mortgage.
Of course,it’s easy to make a mockery of this new mortgage “product,” e.g., Smelly Mel handing out no-down no-docs to a crowd of 15 illegals whose only documentation is a couple of memberships to Gold’s Gym.
This is not the case. Check out these FAQs, which are directed at banks who may be interested in originating such a mortgage and selling it to Fannie Mae:
https://www.fanniemae.com/content/faq/homeready-faqs.pdf
It’s an easy read. ISTM that getting a true HomeReady — i.e. actually using non-borrower non resident income (not de facto renters) — will be about as easy as threading a camel through the eye a very small needle.
(and to put in my obligatory plug for fully amortized PITI: please note that even with HomeReady, the mortgage is still a fixed-rate full payment. No I/O, no neg-am, no ARM or teaser rates. SOMEBODY, even if it’s a clan, has to pony up full PITI from day one.)
Considering it’s a 3% down payment mortgage it is a subprime mortgage by definition. No different than the millions of mortgages made over the last 8 years.
‘This is not the case’
Why do it at all?
‘San Diegans looking to buy their first homes could be in for a huge boost thanks to Congress. Legislators sent a bill to President Obama’s desk that could make it much easier for people to buy condos with a 3.5 percent down FHA loan.’
‘The bill, passed unanimously by Congress, calls for lowering the owner occupancy requirement for buying condos with an FHA loan. Currently, the administration will only finance a condo if 50 percent or more of the units in the complex are occupied by owners — something that seems to harder to find in San Diego County.’
‘The bill aims to lower that threshold to 35 percent, which would open doors for thousands of San Diegans to buy condos with 3.5 percent down. Right now, potential homeowners need to come up with 10 to 20 percent down through other financing to buy the property.’
‘The bill could help San Diegans who struggle to save for a down payment amid rising rents. Charlotte Whelen, who works as a waitress, rents a room for $625 a month in Clairemont. She said she’s moved seven times in eight years, and she would like to own a home someday.’
“Unfortunately, with my student loans, having gone to a private school, it’s been pretty rough when it comes to saving up money,” she said.
‘Whelen may not need as much as originally expected. The median condo in the county sold for $375,000 in May, according to CoreLogic. A 3.5 percent down payment is $13,325. The bill would go into effect as soon as Obama signs it and the FHA needs to adjust the rate.’
‘who works as a waitress…’Unfortunately, with my student loans, having gone to a private school’
‘The bill aims to lower that threshold to 35 percent, which would open doors for thousands of San Diegans to buy condos with 3.5 percent down.
Fantastic news!! Now FHA can underwrite so many more loans on airbnb units!!
“The bill, passed unanimously by Congress,”
Unanimously. And once again, it is the government leading the charge to lower lending standards, just like the first time around.
Why is it in the government’s interest to continuously lower lending standards? Aren’t these people aware that the lens of history will judge them harshly for their folly?
“Unfortunately, with my student loans, having gone to a private school, it’s been pretty rough when it comes to saving up money,” she said.
Lemme guess… this waitress got a STEM degree.
why do it at all?
I wonder that too, Ben. All I can think is that Smelly Mel et al are just trying to look like they’re doing something.
We’re looking for failure points which will exactly reflect the semi-deflation of Housing Bubble I. However, the mortgage finance system has been upgraded to further insulate the FIRE sector from loss.
The Fed has done an interesting thing in that it has grown its balance sheet significantly to be able to generate income from it and buy government debt. So let’s say the mortgage system stumbles - the Fed will be easily in a position to buy government debt. Additionally, the government cannot go bankrupt - the debt simply grows, even if the Fed cannot do this. So this is the new form of the mortgage finance system - it’s nationalized.
So that protects the FIRE sector from disruption. However, it won’t protect the populace who will bear the brunt again of defaults. Here’s an interesting data point:
“But if journalism is the first-draft of history, then it’s about time for a second draft. In a new working paper by Wharton economists Fernando Ferreira and Joseph Gyourko, the authors argue that the idea that subprime lending triggered the crisis is misguided. The paper looks at foreclosure data from 1997 through 2012 and finds that while foreclosure activity started first in the subprime market, the foreclosure activity in the prime market quickly outnumbered the number of subprime foreclosures.”
http://fortune.com/2015/06/17/subprime-mortgage-recession/
All of the economic policy we have is, if one wishes to be polite about it, very “trickle down.” If we don’t wish to be polite about it, we’ll can also accurately call it “crony capitalism”. The net results are the same it seems to me.
The PTB don’t fully understand all of the consequences of their policies. So the attitude is they’ll keep going until something stops them.
‘the idea that subprime lending triggered the crisis is misguided. The paper looks at foreclosure data from 1997 through 2012 and finds that while foreclosure activity started first in the subprime market, the foreclosure activity in the prime market quickly outnumbered the number of subprime foreclosures’
I’ve pointed this out for years. The “subprime was the cause” idea is used to justify ever higher prices. They invented it quite after the fact. The bubble would have popped if there was zero subprime.
The “elites” like to blame things on the little people. They get off on it. Accountability isn’t something they’re fond of.
Bubble prices would not have inflated nearly so much without subprime, one of whose effects is to decouple household incomes and credit worthiness from the home purchase price budget constraint.
“Prime” was subprime.
A case can be made that the sub-prime borrowers set the prices in the margins, so prime borrowers had to pay higher prices created by the sub-prime driven demand.
SOMEBODY, even if it’s a clan, has to pony up full PITI from day one.)
Or no-pay from day one, and see how long it takes to get evicted. How long is that again, these days?
I know someone who hasn’t paid in about 7yrs; I do sometimes wonder whether the reaction time is faster on mortgages issued now, or no.
“Historically, developers have preferred to convert apartments to condos. That made sense before the crash, when condo buyers were willing to pay higher prices for converted apartments than apartment investors would, creating an arbitrage opportunity for developers. But the market has flipped. Though condo prices are recovering, apartment values have soared even more in recent years, meaning the pricing spread works the other way.”
Think about what that means.
A premium for ownership reflects two things: the ability to lock in housing prices, regardless of any inflation in the economy, and become a permanent part of a community.
A premium for renting reflects two things: the ability to benefit from falling housing prices in the long run (even though rents have been rising more than income in the recent past), and the ability to flee a community.
The community has become a wealth transfer mechanism from young people who can’t run away to Generation Greed, which feels entitled to everything it promised itself but refused to pay for. If you are locked in, you are set up to be a victim and pay the debts, underfunded and retroactively enriched pensions, and deteriorating infrastructure left behind by those who came before.
“A premium for ownership reflects two things: the ability to lock in housing prices, regardless of any inflation in the economy, and become a permanent part of a community.”
“… the ability to lock in housing prices.” And to be locked in by housing prices.
“… become a permanent part of the community.” Whether you want to or not.
There’s another thing at work here, that indicates this will go on for some time. CalPers has a new manager, and she’s quoted as saying that they plan to increase their exposure to private equity, and R/E. They simply can’t find a way to earn their target 7.5% return in Equities, and bonds, so they double down on these assets, because they recently performed well. So, lots of other peoples money chasing yield. Interesting to look back and see how they were crushed on their R/E development investments in 2008-09. Yet 7 years later, haven’t learned a thing.
What could possibly go wrong? (See: The Big Short)
On Netflix now.
What’s driving this is big money looking for return, not prudent multi-family managers running a business. The later took the money and ran. Most of what I read is sort of like flippers; already made some bucks, pay sky high prices for land, build a complex, get it rented, sell it or refi and repeat.
I’ve even found articles in Denver where a new complex wasn’t very full and they were able to flip it for big profits. As for how far it can go; it isn’t being run on business principles. These people think they’ve invented a perpetual money machine. It’ll end like all perpetual money machines. They’ve already started to hit a wall on incomes and vacancy (see Portland this past week). A recession will cause a blood-bath, and that’s only a matter of time.
“What’s driving this is big money looking for return…”
Yep… CRE tenants that charge $8 for a cup of coffee and bran muffin.
How long can Yellen the Felon use ZIRP, soon to be NIRP, and QE-to-Infinity to prop up the Fed’s Ponzi markets to prevent true price discovery and keep the public union pension funds solvent?
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/07/14/stocks-will-crash-california-state-local-pension-funds-taxpayers-price-sales-ratio/
Housing Demand Craters To 20-Year Low
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0q8fIAsczFk/VUANHEhSbnI/AAAAAAAAjRs/oANwXOUviGw/s1600/MBAApr292015.PNG
Stuck at 1997 (pre-bubble) levels…
When is the market going to crash? How could we not be in a bubble?
How many of these millstones do you have hanging on your neck?
Central bank Ponzi markets are hitting all time highs, thanks to the deranged money printing of the Fed, ECB, BoJ, etc. How sustainable is this when the underlying fundamentals - especially national cohesion and social stability - seem to be breaking down?
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/07/13/all-time-highs/
Dumbing down the precious snowflakes requires a concerted, costly effort to product the perfect lifetime Democrat dependency voters: dolts with no capacity for critical thinking and no ability to become productive, self-sufficient members of society (horrors!). Forward!
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/07/15/state-membership-common-core-test-consortia-62/
This has nuthin’ to do with housing, but still …
“Vox has conducted a very interesting study and has written a long, insightful article: The 7 biggest problems facing science, according to 270 researchers. Excerpts:
“In the past several years, many scientists have become afflicted with a serious case of doubt — doubt in the very institution of science.
“As reporters covering medicine, psychology, climate change, and other areas of research, we wanted to understand this epidemic of doubt. So we sent scientists a survey asking this simple question: If you could change one thing about how science works today, what would it be and why?
“We heard back from 270 scientists all over the world, including graduate students, senior professors, laboratory heads, and Fields Medalists. They told us that, in a variety of ways, their careers are being hijacked by perverse incentives. The result is bad science.
“The scientific process, in its ideal form, is elegant: Ask a question, set up an objective test, and get an answer. Repeat.
“But nowadays, our respondents told us, the process is riddled with conflict. Scientists say they’re forced to prioritize self-preservation over pursuing the best questions and uncovering meaningful truths.
“Today, scientists’ success often isn’t measured by the quality of their questions or the rigor of their methods. It’s instead measured by how much grant money they win, the number of studies they publish, and how they spin their findings to appeal to the public.
“As long as things like publication quantity, and publishing flashy results in fancy journals are incentivized, and people who can do that are rewarded …”
The link that follows is filled with more.
Link …
https://judithcurry.com/2016/07/15/the-troubled-institution-of-science/#more-21844
The central bankers’ answer to any and all threats to their Ponzi markets and asset bubbles? Why, moar stimulus! Weimar 2.0, here we come.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/15/take-a-sledgehammer-to-brexit-risks-with-new-stimulus-says-bank/
How do you like the 2016 updated version of The Odd Couple?
The Financial Times
Donald Trump
Trump and Pence make for Republican odd couple
Indiana governor chosen as VP may help bridge the divide with the party elite
yesterday
by: Demetri Sevastopulo and Barney Jopson in Washington
When Donald Trump picked Indiana governor Mike Pence as his vice-presidential running mate, it was a case of a liberal New Yorker tapping a Republican from the other end of the ideological spectrum to shore up his conservative credentials and help bridge the divide between the brash businessman and the Republican establishment.
But the choice of Mr Pence, a former radio talk show host who spent ten years in Congress, also marks one of the rare cases since 1864, when Abraham Lincoln ran for re-election with Andrew Johnson, that both individuals on the Republican ticket had previously been members of another party.
Mr Pence touts his credentials as a “Christian, a conservative, and a Republican, in that order”. But the 57-year old native of Columbus, Indiana, was born into a family of Irish-American Democrats. According to Indianapolis Monthly, he collected clippings of John F Kennedy, and later became a youth member of the local county Democratic Party.
While he voted for Jimmy Carter in 1980, he began his shift to conservatism in college, where he studied history. There he became a socially-conservative evangelical Christian, one reason that the low-key Midwesterner has been cast in the unlikely role of running with a flashy New York tycoon.
After weeks of speculation, Mr Trump on Friday said he had chosen Mr Pence over Chris Christie, the New Jersey governor, and Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House of Representatives.
…
He walked right into that one. Paul Ryan, Lindsay Graham and the other Republicans who want revenge already have the articles of impeachment drawn up.
Trump-Pence 2016
Pence 2017
Curiouser and curiouser…I have to say that I could more easily vote for Trump-Pence than for Trump-Newt or Trump-Christie.
I would have voted for Trump-Christie, even though I don’t much care for Christie. He’s been a loyal and surprisingly low-key supporter and adviser to Trump, and I am grateful to him how he eviscerated Rubio, who desperately deserved it.
Christie is who Trump wanted and who he is most comfortable with. But, as usually happens with these Republican campaigns, the senior campaign consultant won out. I thought Trump knew better, but unfortunately Manafort has him by the short and curlies, because of the delegates. In a way, it’s a rather sad story behind the scenes, a Shakespearean tragedy of epic proportions, involving family drama and such.
So I’ll not be voting for Trump, because I don’t want Pence for President.
All the citizen neocucks, are crawling out of the woodwork with great joy and enthusiasm. Pence 2017!
“So I’ll not be voting for Trump, because I don’t want Pence for President.”
So it’s Hillary then!? That’s quite a reversal…
More likely Gary Johnson.
Which senior campaign consultant convinced McCain to pick Palin? I don’t think there was much consulting going on there…
“So it’s Hillary then!? That’s quite a reversal…”
Ben probably isn’t going to let this go through, but I just have to say it.
Prof, you really are one twisted fister. You know damn well I’d never vote for Hillary, not in a million years. I really feel sorry for your students and most of all, your family. Their reality is likely so warped from years of being trolled by you, there isn’t a psych med invented that could keep them on an even keel.
“Which senior campaign consultant convinced McCain to pick Palin? I don’t think there was much consulting going on there…”
AB Culvahouse. Not a consultant, strictly speaking, more of a “vetter”. Same guy who did the vetting for Trump.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arthur_B._Culvahouse,_Jr.
“McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin for vice president led to controversy over the vetting process.[5][6] In 2009, Culvahouse defended his vetting in a speech to the Republican National Lawyers Association: Palin “had a lot of capacity. The mistake I made — and we’ve laughed about it since — after giving [McCain] that advice, he said, ‘Well, what’s your bottom line?’ I said, ‘John. High risk, high reward.’ And his response, ‘You shouldn’t have told me that, I’ve been a risk-taker all of my life.’”[7]
“Me and two of my most cynical partners interviewed [Palin], and came away impressed,” Culvahouse said.[7]“
Apparently, speaking with proper grammar is a concern for middle class little people only.
Just yanking your chain, Palmy, like the posters here who say I am voting for Hillbillie enjoy doing.
Peace, bro!
If pence can dump trump I’ll vote for him
Converted IN to right to work =kewl
Maybe he did it because Pence is close to Koch money? Trump’s billions rise and fall only with the worth of his name. And his name isn’t looking to good.
“Maybe he did it because Pence is close to Koch money?”
Nope. If it was money, he would have sucked it up and taken Newt. It was Manafort, the delegate godfather and campaign consultant. Trump wants those delegates.
The Kochs have already made it perfectly clear they are not contributing one thin dime to the campaign, Pence or no Pence.
And just to clarify, since Gary Johnson said he would sign TPP and proceeded to call Trump a racist, I’ll probably write in someone or maybe even sit it out, something I haven’t done since I was old enough to vote.
It’s not that I’ve turned on Trump. I haven’t. I’d do it out of respect and gratitude to him. He doesn’t deserve an impeachment or any of the obstruction that he’s going to have to face when he wins, which he will. The US is not worth it anymore, the patient is too deformed and too sick to salvage, unfortunately.
I think he’ll fight to the finish, eviscerate Hillary and then take his marbles and go home, leaving the cuck Pence with his hand on his backside.
Yeah, racism was completely eliminated from American life many decades ago. Yet those libertarians insist on throwing the r-word around. Johnson must have received money from Soros.
The election-then-impeachment scenario seems far fetched, unless somebody has far worse dirt on Trump than his helping to sell unbuilt condos to FBs, or promoting Trump University as a university.
If this were so, wouldn’t it have come out by now in the MSM?
“Yeah, racism was completely eliminated from American life many decades ago.”
Nobody said that.
“Yet those libertarians insist on throwing the r-word around.”
Only the one libertarian, as far as I know. As I recall, Ron Paul was accused of being a racist.
“Johnson must have received money from Soros.”
No, he was just buying insurance. Point the finger somewhere else so he doesn’t get the Ron Paul treatment. Doesn’t say much for him that he was willing to do that.
How much violence and mayhem will Soros rent-a-mobs inflict on Cleveland?
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/cleveland-convention-violence-insiders-225570
Or will Trump hire the rent-a-mob and blame it on Soros?
As I explained yesterday, Soros will hire the rent-a-mob and blame it on the Trumpsters.
Good we can at least agree that any violence around Cleveland is likely to be staged.
The question is, whose campaign would benefit from the violence. The answer rather obviously seems to be Trump, who would thereby suck up more media oxygen. Why would Soros want to help Trump grab more attention? Makes no sense…
Yellen the Felon still purports to see no bubbles. Neither did Greenspan. Neither did Bernanke.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-15/housing-bubble-20-are-you-ready
Tech stocks are 50% over-priced according to some actuarial analysts.
Bubble blindness is apparently a Fed chair position requirement.
In the wake of BREXIT, Russian oligarchs and Chinese embezzlers seem to have cooled on buying insanely overpriced real estate in London, the global epicenter of financial fraud.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-15/uk-luxury-property-sales-collapse-post-brexit
Meanwhile, Italy’s banking system remains un-fixed.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/15/eu-finance-ministers-get-tough-with-italian-bank-trying-for-third-bailout
RIP, rule of law.
http://market-ticker.org
Article for all the cultural relativists:
“A Pakistani celebrity who shot to fame on the back of racy Facebook videos has allegedly been killed by her brother in an apparent “honour” killing.
A police official in Multan said Qandeel Baloch, 26, had been strangled by her brother Waseem, who then fled the scene. The model and singer, whose real name is Fouzia Azeem, had been in the city visiting her parents.
Her brother had allegedly told her to end her social media activity, which had won her legions of fans, although left many dismayed. Baloch shot to national attention in March when she released a video promising to perform a “striptease” if the Pakistani cricket team won the World Twenty20 cricket championships.
Although Pakistan did not win, she still danced on camera, saying the performance was in honour of the victorious Indian team. She was unapologetic about upsetting conservatives in the Muslim-majority state where radical forms of Islam have grown in popularity in recent years.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/16/pakistani-star-qandeel-baloch-allegedly-killed-by-brother
When voters sanction and enable official corruption, i.e. with votes for Hillary and her ilk, they bear full moral culpability for what follows.
http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2016/07/torture-american-nearly-beaten-to-death.html
“A survey by Visit Denver shows concern about Denver’s “growing reputation” for safety challenges, homeless youth and public pot consumption is scaring away conventions.
“First impressions of Denver? You do have a lot of homeless people which I’m shocked, practically on every street corner,” said Natahsa Maraj, who is visiting Denver from London for a convention. “Would I return? I don’t know to be honest.”
In a report by VISIT DENVER presented last December, homeless youth, panhandling and public mariajuana use are the top complaints.”
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/report-denvers-rep-a-growing-concern-for-tourism-officials
EVERY municipality run by corrupt, incompetent Democrat Administrations (redundant, I realize) is going to devolve into a dystopian cesspool. In addition, between the oligarch looting of the productive economy and the parasitism actively encouraged and enabled by the Democrats in their quest for the limitless expansion of their dependency bloc voters, panhandlers are the highest expression of Democrat “values.” Forward!
1/1/2013 (legalization of recreational cannabis) was the beginning of the end here. Dem youts need to stop moving here. And if you’re homeless you shouldn’t own a dog you can’t afford to take care of. It’s not a prop to induce sympathy while begging for free sh*t.
99% of the time when I see a driver at an intersection handing cash to a bum with a “woe is me” sign, it’s a female do-gooder. Of course she won’t be anywhere to be found when said bum buys a bag of heroin, ODs, and ends up in the emergency room, with county taxpayers picking up the $20,000 tab.
She should have shot him.
Darwin charts …
https://www.google.com/search?q=heroin+deaths&biw=1360&bih=651&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjS6-XEsPjNAhULwWMKHWElDEwQ_AUIBygC#imgrc=TBeUTZ80lDzSUM%3A
The Cherry Creek bike path downtown is a blatant, open air drug market for heroin, most of which is actually the synthetic fentanyl now.
IIRC from the death of Prince, fentanyl is the last stop on the way out. You don’t last long if you’re buying it on the market.
And it’s extremely toxic — a speck the size of a grain of salt can be lethal. That bike path is probably contaminated, stay away.
“99% of the time when I see a driver at an intersection handing cash to a bum with a “woe is me” sign, it’s a female do-gooder. “”
I think it is 30% male do gooders. When they have their girlfriends in the car. They do the altruism to score with their girlfriend that night. Otherwise when driving alone or with other guys, maybe 1% of the time it’s a guy handing out money.
My former roommate would buy lunches at takeout places with his girlfriend and would give them to the homeless. I knew it was all about scoring.
I’ve bought lunches for the homeless, and it wasn’t to score. It was because some of them, no kidding, are really down on their luck in our Obama-Fed-Goldman Sachs “recovery.” But I’m not handing over funds to be spent on drugs or alcohol.
If I’ve got change on me, I’ll hand it out. Cheap karma.
Because it works so well in Denver …
“According to a recent poll, 60% of American voters want legalization. Proponents are confident that marijuana legalization will pass in California. Californians will vote in November on the Control, Regulate and Tax Adult Use of Marijuana Initiative. The measure would legalize marijuana and hemp under state law.Jun 2, 2016.”
The American people:
1. Dumb ‘em down.
2. Profit.
Our descent into IDIOCRACY was confirmed by the results of the 2008 and 2012 elections, with 95% of the electorate proving they were functional retards with their votes for Obama, McCain, and Romney.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwZ0ZUy7P3E
“Homeless youth.”
I’ve got news for you. It isn’t just cities that legalized pot that have homeless youth. It is in any city the youth have heard about.
They are coming form large areas in the center of the country where you have:
Family collapse.
Economic collapse.
You see them in New York, too. Homeless, young White people. There weren’t so many even in the 1990s, when crack mostly hit the Black community.
I knew it - the UK Establishment (sellout) politicians will not trigger Article 50 - the start of the formal process to exit the EU - until some mythical point in the future when the Scots (who are sadly devolved from the couragous freedom-loving highlanders they used to be) are onboard. So now all those BREXIT voters have effectively been disenfrancised.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3693271/Fury-Scotland-s-Brexit-veto-MPs-react-angrily-Prime-Minister-Theresa-promises-not-trigger-Article-50-Scots-signed-up.html
Why is it that Yellen the Felon and the other central bankers keep touting our supposed economic “recovery” while simultaneously saying we need to escalate emergency measures to avoid a banking crisis?
https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/some-disturbing-figures-about-the-upcoming-banking-crisis-19997/?inf_contact_key=9f9909e540649e308141847ee759881a17d22c5bcc77b810417c37e3ff7b9e18
Jupiter, FL Housing Prices Crater 5% YoY As SubPrime Mortgages Skyrocket
http://www.zillow.com/jupiter-fl/home-values/
Nearby Cities?
I don’t know, Juno?
Name Median ZHVI
Juno Beach $391,500
fairly prosperous for Florida, but that’s not really saying much
The median income for a household in the town was $55,263, and the median income for a family was $68,382. Males had a median income of $50,545 versus $36,842 for females. The per capita income for the town was $50,344. About 3.9% of families and 4.5% of the population were below the poverty line, including 5.7% of those under age 18 and 2.7% of those age 65 or over.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juno_Beach,_Florida
Are you peddling fiction Mighty?
“The median income for a household in the town was $55,263″
“but that’s not really saying much”
Household income in the United States
From Wikipedia
Household income is measured in various ways. One key measure is the real median level, meaning half of households have income above that level and half below, adjusted for inflation. According to the Federal Reserve, this measure was $51,939 in 2013, below the 1999 peak of around $57,000.[1] The Census Bureau estimated real median household income at $53,657 for 2014 and $54,462 in 2015.
Mitey is an LIEberal fiction peddler. Like all LIEberals.
Everything went downhill in Juno Beach (or uphill depending on your point of view) when they closed the Bloody Duck.
Yeah, the median income is a little higher than the nation median. But it’s not anywhere close to a level that would justify $400k house prices. That was my point.
The health insurance scam known as Obamacare continues to rack up more “wins” for patients and taxpayers.
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2016/07/15/illinois-obamacare-co-op-goes-bust-leaving-tens-of-thousands-at-risk/
Globalist Establishment political elites and their media lapdogs are trying to suppress news that might further inflame public opinion against their open-borders, multiculturalist agenda.
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/07/16/graphic-france-suppressed-news-gruesome-islamic-state-torture-paris/
There is no crisis in falling housing prices.
Flower Mound, TX Affordability Surges As Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/flower-mound-tx/home-values
‘Historically, developers have preferred to convert apartments to condos. That made sense before the crash, when condo buyers were willing to pay higher prices for converted apartments than apartment investors would, creating an arbitrage opportunity for developers. But the market has flipped. Though condo prices are recovering, apartment values have soared even more in recent years, meaning the pricing spread works the other way’
Heck we’ve seen a luxury condo project in Manhattan go apartment and back to condo again.
I lived at an apartment complex in Scottsdale years ago that had no garages. Only car ports. After I moved out, they converted the apartments to condos. They put mini W/Ds in. Before they were converted you had to use a laundry room with machines that took tokens. I read later they were converted back to apartments, I think in 2011.
‘Investors in Reno don’t see the same value as investors from San Francisco or San Diego’
Boy does this bring back memories; “these local-yokels can’t see there’s gold, GOLD, layin’ on the ground all over the place!”
Saratoga Springs, NY Housing Prices Crater 17% YoY As Inventory Skyrockets
http://www.zillow.com/saratoga-springs-ny/home-values/
Skidmore College
From Wikipedia
Skidmore College is a private, independent liberal arts college in Saratoga Springs, New York. Approximately 2,500 students are enrolled at Skidmore pursuing a Bachelor of Arts or Bachelor of Science degree in one of more than 60 areas of study.
“Rents Falling in SF”
http://www.sfweekly.com/thesnitch/2016/07/12/rents-falling-in-sf-but-sky-remains-overhead
There is nothing to debate about falling rental rates.
It’s great to see evidence that Uncle Sam’s Affordable Housing program is finally beginning to work.
It’ll work alright. The build your way out of a bubble thing can only result in one thing; “cash flow problems”. As an accountant this sets off warning flares. It means contractors/employees get paid later and later (and they people they owe get the same, on down the line). Corners get cut, loan payments are late then go into default. People who thought they’d retire, don’t. New owners reduce rents and it’ll eventually right itself. But not until lotsa pain is spread around.
This is the end result of intervention/stimulus, be it the central bank or government.
“But not until lotsa pain is spread around.”
And the task for the individual is …
(drum roll)
… to make sure he himself endures none of this pain.
‘The other shoe has dropped at the financially troubled Hudson Valley Mall on Ulster Avenue. Its $49.4-million mortgage has been foreclosed upon, and Kingston attorney Catherine Charuk has been appointed receiver to sort out the situation in the interests of the creditors. Mall management is no longer making the big decisions.’
‘It looks very much as though someone, the creditors, the debtors or both, will have to write off a substantial portion of their investment.’
Thanks. I sent the URL to my sister who has been beleaguered by the high rents up in Northern California the last few years.
‘Two weeks ago, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings…revealed that May 2016 numbers weren’t quite as good as the year before: “With last month’s decline, the index reading is still the third highest in the past year, but declined year-over-year for the first time since August 2014.”
‘Some mainstream media ran headlines highlighting that the index had dropped for the first time in two years. Many read this as an indication that the housing market must be slowing down. If you own a Reno home and were thinking about selling, these reports may have caused you some concern. We want to alleviate that concern today.’
‘Though it is true that the index dropped in last month’s report, let’s take a closer look at the numbers. The index has increased every month over the last eighteen months, leading up to this past May. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explained that it wasn’t a slowing of the market that caused the index to slip, but instead a lack of housing inventory: “Total housing inventory at the end of each month has remarkably decreased year-over-year now for an entire year. There are simply not enough homes coming onto the market to catch up with demand.”
Just wait until the investor horde catches wind of falling prices and tries to dump inventory on the market. The inventory flood could be quite awesome!
crushing.housing.losses.
‘A Texas oil town goes bust. Would housing immigrants for the feds solve its problems?’
The precious snowflakes flocking to beat their breasts over their white guilt at BLM rallies might not like to hear what their “brothers and sisters” really think of them.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-16/black-lives-matter-organizer-triggered-white-people-demands-money-being-fat-black-bi
Priceless.
Black Lies Matter
Helicopter money: the biggest Fed power grab yet.
https://mises.org/blog/helicopter-money-biggest-fed-power-grab-yet
The Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester is a clueless apparatchik and Fed lifer, who joined the system in 1985 fresh out of Barnard and Princeton and has imbibed in its Keynesian groupthink and institutional arrogance ever since. So it’s not surprising that she was out flogging — albeit down under in Australia — the next step in the Fed’s rolling coup d’ etat.
We’re always assessing tools that we could use,” Mester told the ABC’s AM program. “In the US we’ve done quantitative easing and I think that’s proven to be useful.
“So it’s my view that [helicopter money] would be sort of the next step if we ever found ourselves in a situation where we wanted to be more accommodative.
This is beyond the pale because “helicopter money” isn’t some kind of new wrinkle in monetary policy, at all. It’s an old as the hills rationalization for monetization of the public debt — that is, purchase of government bonds with central bank credit conjured from thin air.
It’s the ultimate in “something for nothing” economics. That’s because most assuredly those government bonds originally funded the purchase of real labor hours, contract services or dams and aircraft carriers.
The Establishment GOP wants its pimp allowance raised.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/15/gop-convention-organizers-are-reportedly-begging-for-money-help.html
The Republican National Convention may be struggling to make ends meet after a bevy of companies cut their contributions to next week’s events, according to a new report.
Politico reported Thursday night that convention organizers had written to billionaires Sheldon and Miriam Adelson asking for $6 million. The letter, which Politico said it had obtained, reportedly acknowledges the event is facing a budget shortfall because more than two dozen companies have bailed on a cumulative $8.1 million in pledges — because of presumptive nominee Donald Trump.
“Over the past couple months, negative publicity around our potential nominee resulted in a considerable number of pledges backing out from their commitments,” the letter says, according to Politico. “We would greatly appreciate if you would consider a $6,000,000 contribution to the Cleveland 2016 Host Committee to help us cross the finish line.”
The host committee’s CEO told CNBC that the letter, provided to by staff after a late-breaking request from Adelson, was not reviewed or authorized by the chairpersons, and that it “mischaracterized certain donations from individuals and corporations.”
Representatives for the Adelsons did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Trump’s rich, why doesn’t he kick down? His fratboy running mate probably has come cash laying around too.
Or maybe he isn’t as rich as he brags he is.
It’s all about the liquidity. He probably is as rich as he says he is, but much of it is tied up in real estate that is most likely over-valued. I think he’s already ante-d up about $100 million of his own money since the start. If I were him, I wouldn’t throw down another penny.
Newt was the golden boy who would have brought about $200 mil with him, is what I heard. Trump figured it wasn’t worth it and it probably isn’t.
A lot of donors shot their wad on JEB!, Rubio and Cruz. Especially JEB!, and all they got was a good shellacking.
Personally, I hope he withdraws at the convention. Pence won’t bring in a dime.
BTW, I’ve been following the back story on all of this over the past few days. Hilarious. Apparently Newt wanted the Veep gig badly. He knew he screwed up with his “inexCUSable” donkey bray over the judge issue, so he had all sorts of people calling Trump to lobby frantically for the gig on his behalf, while he swung away from “inexCUSable” to calling for permanent Muslim bans and similar stuff on talk shows, trying to dog whistle to Trump that he, too, could be tough on immigration.
He got the famous Trump treatment. Trump will actually refrain from firing back on occasion, act very friendly, bide his time and then get even when the opportunity presents itself. He’s actually written about it. Newt should have known better.
Newt has been a crap weasel his entire political career, as well as an Establishment toadie through and through.
e got the famous Trump treatment. Trump will actually refrain from firing back on occasion, act very friendly, bide his time and then get even when the opportunity presents itself. He’s actually written about it. Newt should have known better.
Putin’s good at that, too, LOL.
Trump’s rich, why doesn’t he kick down? His fratboy running mate probably has come cash laying around too.
In case you hadn’t noticed, its the same Establishment GOP that tried every trick in the book to deny Trump the nomination that’s now out asking its oligarch pimps for a handout. Trump owes those sleazy RINOs nothing.
Amen and testify, brothah. He ought to show them his hindquarters, at this point. And he may, yet. You never know, with Trump.
Trump breathed new life into a sick and dying organization, brought in new voters from across a broad spectrum. A little over a year ago I was looking forward with dread to this election season, the drip-drip-drip of JEB vs Hillary and then the man stepped up to the plate and made it fun and interesting and brought issues to the fore that desperately needed discussion.
He laid waste to the Bushes like nobody else would dare, for which he has earned my undying thanks.
I would love to see him do this at the convention:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsqJFIJ5lLs
I have come to the conclusion that perhaps it would be best to let Hillary and her Orcs finish things off, so something new can arise from the ashes. And trust me, she will. It’s in her DNA.
So Trump is a Real Republican? The epitome of republicanness? A real estate huckster shilling to the crowd? That’s all it takes?
He’s Da Meddle Fanger.
“He’s Da Meddle Fanger.”
That he is, that he is.
Hey, Russ:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsqJFIJ5lLs
Are you not entertained?
I am most definitely entertained, but I prefer that my clowns are in control of the largest nuclear arsenal on the planet. I’m skittish that way.
Speaking of entertainment….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZetwvKyHuk
What is a convention good for? In my eyes, I see it as some kind of networking bazaar.
It’s free advertising.
… and a place for the dweebs to gather and scream.
It’s free comedy.
Are some of the lemmings who fell for hope n’ change belatedly realizing they were sold a bill of goods?
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_CAMPAIGN_2016_EVENING_IN_AMERICA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-07-16-07-56-19
‘A tight apartment market has dominated local discussions about affordable housing and livability in the Asheville area for nearly two years. But while that vacancy rate is dropping to a more livable range of around 6 percent, rents likely won’t fall over the next couple of years, experts say.’
‘Robinson’s first quarter report for Asheville noted:
• “Properties built from the 1980s to the 2000s are maintaining an average vacancy rate in the 6 percent range, compared to 3 percent for properties built in 1970s or earlier.”
• “The average vacancy for properties built after 2009 is approximately 19 percent, which is skewing the vacancy rate upward,” in part because in a smaller market “additions to supply have an amplified effect.”
‘Robinson said his company’s figures from about two months ago show the Asheville area has “about a 3 percent vacancy, and in real time it may be a little higher.” In North Carolina, the rental vacancy in the first quarter stood at 8.2 percent, according to U.S. Census data.’
‘By some estimates, the Asheville area, including surrounding Buncombe County and Fletcher, has had or will have in coming months about 2,200 new units coming online, well short of the 5,600 units the consultant recommended be built to meet demand.’
‘That 1 percent vacancy rate was made famous by the report from Bowen National Research, an Ohio-based real estate market consulting firm that researched rental apartment vacancy rates in Buncombe, Henderson, Madison and Transylvania counties during fall 2014.’
‘Its release in January 2015 helped push a spike in building, making apartment construction a common sight in and around Asheville.’
‘No one company has put more units on the Asheville market than Will Ratchford’s Triangle Real Estate of Gastonia, which since 2011 has added or will soon add 1,136 units in Asheville, Buncombe and Fletcher. Most of their units carry rents ranging from $900 to 1,350 a month.’
‘While Ratchford has seen one report suggesting the area will have 10 percent vacancy rate by 2020, he’s skeptical it will get that high.’
‘Rents haven’t dropped yet, but Ratchford said some cracks are beginning to show in the rental increase wall, mainly because of all the competition. “You’re starting to see some concessions in the market,” Ratchford said, referring to rent deals. “At Seasons at Cane Creek, we’re doing an up-front special — $500 off the first four months rent. Everybody is trying to fill up at the same time, and when you input more supply in the market it’s taking awhile to fill up.”
‘Even though he makes his living in the apartment world, Ratchford thinks it might be nearing the end of a mini-boom cycle. Rent increases may have plateaued in the luxury-apartment market.’
‘Rusty Pulliam heads Pulliam Properties, a commercial real estate firm that has become active in the apartment industry in recent years…Pulliam said he can still make money at the Mills Gap site because demand is so high that he can build a “premium complex” and charge high enough rents to make it work. But in the long run, he said, solving the apartment crunch does not require a Ph.D.’
“If we were building middle-of-the-road apartments, we couldn’t do it. But until we put out there, as the Bowen report stated, 5,600 units in the marketplace, I don’t see that rents are going to come down, especially when see we’ve got a (3.5) percent unemployment rate and rents went up 7.6 percent, even when a lot of units did come on line.”
‘The average vacancy for properties built after 2009 is approximately 19 percent’
Somewhere out there are several people getting ready to retire and don’t know they will become walmart greeters. And notice the denial:
‘While Ratchford has seen one report suggesting the area will have 10 percent vacancy rate by 2020, he’s skeptical it will get that high’
The article quotes guys still hanging their hat on one estimate from 2014 even when they are already overbuilt.
‘until we put out there, as the Bowen report stated, 5,600 units in the marketplace, I don’t see that rents are going to come down’
This mini-boom ain’t so mini, and billions are “chasing yield” into money heaven.
Asheville was no easy place 20 years ago to find an apartment. I suppose houses were sort of cheaper back then, but apartments in the city were hard to find. People I knew lived way outside the city, which was maybe a 10 to 20 mile radius distance, and they had plenty of cheap places to choose from. I shudder to think what Asheville is like now. I have not been there in about 16 years. Another place “discovered” by arbitrage house sales from away.
Spain’s banks “Too Broke to Fine” - coming soon to a TBTF bank near you.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/07/13/too-broke-to-fine-banks-above-law-spain-floor-clauses-variable-rate-mortgage/
Imagine that - a country that guards its borders.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_EUROPE_MIGRANTS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-07-16-08-02-32
Many do, while their “betters” sternly admonish them for being racist or something.
The bankster loot-a-rama continues.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/16/italy-hires-jp-morgan-to-hammer-out-50bn-bad-bank-bailout-plan/
‘Seven years of interest rates at a historic low of 0.5% (and likely to go down further still, as early as this week) have put paid to the ‘cash’ option. But a lot of people still put their faith in property rather than the stock market.’
‘And for many thousands of those people, the events of last week will have come as something of an unpleasant shock. Quite simply, if there’s one thing worse than an investment that’s collapsed in value, it’s an investment that’s collapsed in value - and you still can’t get your hands on your money.’
‘As I’ve said before - property does have one major drawback as an asset. Namely, that it’s not at all liquid. Unlike a holding of shares, you can’t sell half a house or a quarter of an office block. And critically, you can’t sell property quickly.’
‘And it’s that lack of liquidity that gave investors in property funds a nasty shock last week. And as we saw in the last recession, when lots of investors want to exit a property fund, the fund’s managers can’t sell offices, shopping centres and industrial parks overnight.’
‘Predictably, then, fund managers did what they had done in the last recession: they ‘froze’ their funds, giving them time to make their sales at something other than emergency ‘fire sale’ prices. At a stroke, investors were trapped, their assets frozen.’
‘Worse, in most cases, this followed a ‘fair value’ price adjustment of 5% or so, designed to reflect the lower value of the funds’ underlying investments, post-Brexit. One fund manager, Henderson, did this on June 24th - the very day that the Brexit result was announced.’
‘Psst - want an office block? Going cheap?’
‘Standard Life was first to suspend trading in its fund, slamming the doors on its £2.7 billion UK Real Estate fund July 4th. Aviva came next, suspending its £1.8 billion Aviva Property Trust the following day. A few hours later, M&G did the same, suspending its giant £4.4 billion M&G Property Portfolio.’
‘According to the Financial Times, come Friday some £15 billion of investors’ funds had been locked up, with seven large fund managers and a number of smaller ones all leaving investors trapped inside non-trading funds. And judging by what happened in the recession, it could be several months before investors finally get access to their money - and at valuations much lower than what they thought their property investments had been worth on June 23rd, the day of the referendum.’
That’s why they were so quick to develop liquid products like rental-backed securities. Actually own property! pshaw, would do as well to drive a truckload of corn to the Chicago Commodities Exchange and ask traders to buy the corn (true story, btw… the two filmmakers who made King Corn tried it).
‘A study by real estate consultant Urbanation and obtained by CBC News shows much of Toronto’s high rise construction in 2016 is being fuelled by demand from renters who are either unable or unwilling to pay record prices for real estate. It’s a significant change from the previous decade’s boom, which was spurred primarily by demand from would-be owners.’
‘According to the city of Toronto planning department, there were 28 highrise development applications in the first six months of 2016. That’s just slightly behind the pace for 2015, when the city received 59 applications for the year overall, and well above the pace in 2013 and 2014, which saw 45 applications each.’
‘Shaun Hildebrand, senior vice president of Urbanation, says developers have applied to build 10,000 rental units in the GTA in past year — 6,000 in the past three months alone. He says half of all new high rise units are now being built for rental purposes.’
‘Ownership is unfavourable’
There’s also a big cost factor at play, according to Hildebrand. “Ownership is unfavourable” to many, he says. Despite record low interest rates, the study shows it’s actually cheaper to rent the average Toronto condo than it is to carry the monthly costs of ownership.’
‘The free-spending days are over at WeWork, the buzzy startup that rents out office space by the desk to other companies. The company is cutting its spending by negotiating lower prices for its building costs.’
‘Despite raising a new $430 million in March, WeWork is pulling back on its “spending culture” and has lowered its forecasts for the year, according to a document and videos of company meetings obtained by Bloomberg. According to an internal financial review document, WeWork has slashed its 2016 profit forecast by 78%, its revenue estimate by 14%, and added a 63% jump in projected negative cash flow.’
‘WeWork says the document, which was stolen by a former employee, was prepared for “for scenario planning purposes,” but declined to elaborate further on whether its figures represent the company’s actual finances.’
‘In the video of all-hands meeting at the company obtained by Bloomberg, WeWork co-founder and CEO Adam Neumann urged the company to cut back on spending. “We did not use to be this way,” he said. “We used to fight for every dollar. We did not spend.”
‘One way the company is cutting back on its spending is by negotiating lower prices for its building costs like electrical work, drywall, appliances, and plumbing fixtures such as toilets, according to the document.’
‘The company also confirmed at Fortune‘s Brainstorm Tech conference in Aspen, Colo. this week that it’s cutting about 7% of its staff.’
Who could have ever thought this was going to happen?
Transgender woman is arrested for voyeurism at Target after ‘taking photos of a woman changing clothes in a fitting room’
By Dailymail.com Reporter
Published: 15:15 EST, 13 July 2016
A transgender woman was arrested for allegedly taking pictures of a woman in a Target fitting room, officials said.
Shauna Patricia Smith, 43, of Idaho Falls, was arrested on Tuesday after the incident at the store in Ammon.
She was booked into the Bonneville County Jail on one felony count of voyeurism as a male, under the name Sean Patrick Smith.
Police say Smith told them she identifies as transgender, East Idaho News reports.
Deputies were called to the Target on 25th East shortly after 5pm on Monday, Bonneville County Sgt Bryan Lovell said.
A woman told the deputies that a man dressed in women’s clothing had come into the fitting room of the women’s clothing section of the store.
The victim said she had been trying on clothes when she noticed someone reaching over the wall with a cell phone and taking pictures.
She confronted the suspect who then fled the store.
The suspect was seen taking photos of woman in the stall next door while she was changing, deputies said.
Lovell said he didn’t know if the victim was wearing underwear when she was photographed, the Post Register reports.
‘The woman was begging for help as she chased the man out the door,’ a witness, who asked to remain anonymous, told East Idaho News.
‘She kept saying she wanted those pictures deleted.’
Investigators looked at security footage from the store and identified the suspect as Smith, who was located by deputies on Tuesday afternoon, Lovell said.
Lovell confirmed that Smith had been booked into jail as a male.
He added that detectives are investigating to figure out if there were any other victims.
Smith remains in custody, jail records show, and was due to make an appearance in court on Wednesday.
In April, Target announced that ‘transgender team members and guests’ were welcome to use restrooms and fitting rooms that correspond with the gender they identify as.
‘Inclusivity is a core belief at Target. It’s something we celebrate,’ the company said.
‘We stand for equality and equity, and strive to make our guests and team members feel accepted, respected and welcomed in our stores and workplaces every day.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3689001/Transgender-woman-arrested-voyeurism-Target-Idaho.html#ixzz4EbYO2h8z
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
You can’t post this here.
Please close your browser window, and redirect yourself to the Washington Post.
I don’t know who publishes more garbage.. the Washington Post or MarketWatch.
Did you get a load of Shauna Patricia’s mug?
That is one ugly tranny…
Shauna appears to be a man, as any three-year-old child who barely knows how to talk could readily point out.
What would a Libertarian do?
This reporting is inexcusably terrible. The writing leaves unclear whether Shauna/Sean is female/male, XX/XY with girl parts/boy parts.
Not to suggest any of this matters in a gender-liberated society…
Check out the rates paid on various student loans:
Federal loan Eligible borrowers 2014-2015 interest rate 2015-2016 interest rate
Direct Subsidized Undergraduates 4.66% 4.29%
Direct Unsubsidized Undergraduates 4.66% 4.29%
Direct Unsubsidized Graduate or Professional Students 6.21% 5.84%
Direct Grad PLUS Graduate or Professional Students 7.21% 6.84%
Direct Parent PLUS Parents 7.21% 6.84%
And don’t miss the fact that there is no way to declare bankruptcy on student loan debt!
Meanwhile, interest rates paid to ordinary savers on bank accounts, CDs and Treasurys pay interest rates of approximately 0%.
Does anyone have any suggestions about how to get on the receiving end of those 4%+ student loan lending rates, with guaranteed payments, other than becoming a bank?
If you dont have the money, go to city college first, it is free for the poor.
who cares, its only paper.
Does anyone have any suggestions about how to get on the receiving end of those 4%+ student loan lending rates, with guaranteed payments, other than becoming a bank?
Becoming a bank would be the best way. There used to be non-profit corporations in a number of states that were student loan lenders. A few probably still exist. Getting into that business would take a lot of effort. You could also buy stock in Sallie Mae.
the reason you overpay is quite simple:
U think your gonna get something for nothing
Dumb question of the day: Couldn’t student loan forgiveness be implemented through the Fed buying up the $1.2 trillion of existing student loans, thereby extinguishing the debt?
I’m missing the bit about taxpayers and universities necessarily ending up on the hook for billions.
July 15, 2016, 04:31 pm
Proposed student loan forgiveness rule would leave universities, taxpayers on the hook for billions
By Stephanie Downey
In response to pressure from the Obama administration, the Department of Education proposed an amendment to the regulation governing debt relief for federal student loans. The proposed amendment could have a severe economic impact, with the Department of Education estimating that the new regulation could cost taxpayers up to $43 billion over the next 10 years.
The current regulation was introduced to protect students from being victimized by colleges or universities. The regulation provided borrowers who had been deceived by schools an opportunity to avoid repaying their student loans. In its amended form, however, the regulation’s language is so vague that there is a real danger of it being interpreted too broadly, leaving colleges and universities vulnerable to meritless claims.
The proposed rule would make schools responsible for repaying the loans of their students if the institution is found to have made a “substantial misrepresentation.” This overly broad phrase is defined as a “statement” or “omission” with a “likelihood or tendency to mislead under the circumstances.”
In contrast, the legal definition of fraud is narrow. Fraud exists when a person with the “intent to deceive” causes financial harm. The new rule extends far beyond that.
The proposed rule’s substantial misrepresentation provision does not require intentional misconduct by the school. This omission could cause academic institutions to face claims brought by former students who feel entitled to certain job prospects or salary expectations. If, for example, a statistic such as the average salary of alumni is skewed by an outlier, the school may be liable for students’ loans.
Schools would also have little chance to defend themselves. Instead, judgments will be passed down unilaterally by an non-independent arbiter from within the Department of Education—a department recently criticized by the Government Accountability Office for irresponsibly spending billions of stimulus dollars.
Now, the proposed regulation will grant the Department of Education the power to adjudicate claims regarding the more than $100 billion worth of student loans issued each year and much of the $1.2 trillion in outstanding student loans. As academic institutions will not have the right to an appeal, there is little legal recourse should the Department of Education reach an improper conclusion.
Even worse, taxpayers will be on the hook for more than just the student loans. By exposing publicly-funded academic institutions to nonstop litigation, the new rule will put taxpayers directly on the hook for the astronomical legal fees that will result.
The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee aptly described the situation by stating, “Students have been hurt, but the department [of education] is establishing a precedent that puts taxpayers on the hook for what a college may have done.”
But taxpayers won’t be the only ones left hurting. Increasing student debt discharges and the resulting recovery efforts could lead our nation’s colleges and universities into financial ruin. They simply won’t be able to overcome being held liable for student loans the Department of Education forgives.
…
Optimal interior temperature, half cold, high cool:
http://www.picpaste.com/20160716_161852.jpg
And while you were listening to Oasis, Blur was recording this. Leisure — High Cool:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrjPL14aJv4
Blur — Coffee and TV:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkWX4IGjA7s
Argentina probes ties between ex-presidents, Miami real estate empire
Miami Herald-7 hours ago
Where did a mystery man from Argentina get nearly $65 million to spend on ultra-luxury Miami condos, New York apartments and South Florida strip malls?
I lowball with a smile on my face.
When is China going to do the same?
fundermentals dont matter anymore
I wonder when will gravity cease to exist…
Why do religions get tax breaks? If they kept the peace I would get it, but I saw the movie, Spotlight.
Trump aligned himself with Pence’s Christian-right base by pledging to work to repeal an IRS regulation that prevents churches from weighing in on politics without losing their tax-exempt status
Hillarious is unelectable.
47% of the ‘Murican electorate are receiving gubmint benefits, and 95% are stupid. Hillary will be our next President.
“I saw the movie, Spotlight.”
So you are generalizing from the Catholic priest sex scandal to all religions? Hmmmmmmmm…
‘Hillary for Prison’ sky banner has been spotted in the skies over Cleveland, Ohio.
why prison?
I’d prefer she were shot out of a cannon into geosynchronous orbit, so we could all easily keep an eye on her.
You are sick. Most of us would love to get her out of our sight altogether.
But she would be very, very small at that distance.
u need to grow a set of brass b@lls and accept something of value for your work.
Did everyone see the short lived Trump/Pence logo with the T penetrating the P?
Trump cant even hire a logo designer! geez
You can’t make up stories like this one!
News
Friday July 15, 2016 05:00 PM EDT
‘It’s Literally a T Penetrating a P’: Twitter Mocks Trump-Pence Logo for Being Sexually Suggestive
Mike Pence (left) and Donald Trump
TASOS KATOPODIS/AFP/Getty
by Tierney McAfee
The Internet would like the new Donald Trump-Mike Pence logo to “get a room.”
…
I’m fully expecting the defunct TP logo to appear on Stewart-Colbert Republican Convention coverage…
TP, eh? Seems like the comedy industry is about to enjoy a hey-day!
But…but…stress tests!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/16/why-italys-banking-crisis-will-shake-the-eurozone-to-its-core/
Those who hold stock in the banks have had how many years of warnings at this point that all is not well?
Why should taxpayers pay a dime?
IMO, their good-bank/bad-bank split should be done via a distribution of bad-bank shares to everyone holding the bank. Then they can choose which stock to hold, good-stock, bad-stock, or both. Good-bank should have no problem raising capital. And bad-bank can either liquidate the bad debt, or wait and see whether it is worth something—as can each individual shareholder.
In other words: let the markets work.
good morning lowballers
All the troubles documented by myself and all the other so called “doomers” must have dissipated under the avalanche of central banker liquidity. Printing fiat and layering more unpayable debt on top of old unpayable debt really was the solution to all our problems. I’m so relieved. I think I’ll put my life savings into Amazon and Twitter stock now that the all clear signal has been given.
The market meandered about for the next seven months going nowhere. It then suddenly dropped in January and February, falling 13% from its May 2015 high. This was unacceptable to central bankers around the globe who believe stock market gains are the only factor reflecting the health of our economic system. Maybe it’s because they are only beholden to bankers, oligarchs, corporate chieftains, corrupt politicians, and unaccountable bureaucrats. Central bankers from around the world have come to the rescue by buying stocks and providing unlimited liquidity to banks and corporations so they can buyback their own stocks. The result, is new record highs.
Instead, central bankers seem to view elevated security valuations as “wealth.” The longer this fallacy persists, the worse the subsequent fallout will be. I have little doubt that future generations will look at the reckless arrogance of today’s central bankers no differently than we view speculators in the South Sea Bubble and the Dutch Tulip-mania. Unfortunately, there is no mechanism by which historically-informed pleas of “no, stop, don’t!” will penetrate their dogmatic conceit. Nor can we change the psychology of investors.”
As Hussman notes, no wealth is being created because no productive investments are being made. Mega-corporations buying back hundreds of billions of their own stock to enrich their executives is not a productive wealth creating venture. We are in the midst of a sickening crisis created by appalling incentives, driven by sociopathic corporate and political leadership captured by their greedy desire for power wealth and control. The sickness is pervasive and terminal.”
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/all-time-high-versus-the-rot-beneath/
The money quote:
“As Hussman notes, no wealth is being created because no productive investments are being made. Mega-corporations buying back hundreds of billions of their own stock to enrich their executives is not a productive wealth creating venture. We are in the midst of a sickening crisis created by appalling incentives, driven by sociopathic corporate and political leadership captured by their greedy desire for power wealth and control. The sickness is pervasive and terminal.”
When they started to run out of legitimate suckers who liked being perpetual debt slaves, they used the tried and true method that worked so well with housing in the mid-2000s – loaning money to losers who weren’t capable of repaying them. This Wall Street mindset is driven by the free money provided them by the Fed. You borrow from the Fed at 0%, lend it to deadbeats at 12% for 72 months so they can “buy” that $40,000 Cadillac Escalade and boost the economy. Over 20% of all auto loans are now being made to subprime (aka deadbeat) borrowers. Now the shit is hitting the fan belt.
For all I know the stock market could continue to rip higher. Madness knows no bounds. The general public is not involved in this madness. They were wiped out twice in the space of eight years. Wall Street and their media mouthpieces have been unable to lure the average Joe back into the casino because the average Joe has been impoverished by Fed policies designed to benefit the .1%. The Wall Street lemming herd has gone mad, but I’m not sure they will recover their senses before they burn the entire demented financial system to the ground. But enjoy the all-time highs while they last.
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/all-time-high-versus-the-rot-beneath/
excellent article
The French socialist administration calls on French young people to become reservists, while maintaining their globalist open-borders, multiculturalist agenda that brings in millions of unassimilable Islamic migrants implacably hostile to western civilization and values. Makes sense to me.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/paris-calls-willing-citizens-become-reservists-172826456.html?ref=gs
The Comrades of Proven Worth in Venezuela, like their US counterparts once the collectivist kleptocrats of the DNC install their permanent Democrat supermajority, have amassed family fortunes through patronage and graft. All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others - forward!
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/07/meet_hugos_daughter_la_chica_rica.html
Since the late 1990s, Venezuelans have voted for successive socialist administrations - in reality collectivist kleptocrats - who promised them benefits someone else would pay for. Producers got fed up with seeing the fruits of their labor “redistributed” to the takers, and stopped producing. Now Venezuelans are get a good healthy dose of the end game of all collectivist kleptocracies.
Watch and learn, Democrats. This is a preview of coming attractions once the DNC’s Comrades of Proven Worth get their permanent Democrat Supermajority and embark on an unfettered looting spree against the productive.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/17/at-least-35000-venezuelans-cross-border-to-colombia-to-buy-food-and-medicine
How will Yellen the Felon and the other Goldman Sachs alumni at the central banks manage to outprint all these black swans?
http://www.breitbart.com/california/2016/07/17/first-turkey-coup-now-economic-crash/
Beta wallet alert.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/my-fiancee-wants-me-to-buy-a-second-home-in-her-name-only-2016-07-13
Interesting. Well the good thing is he can accept or refuse. Her too. It is fair for her to ask for the house in her name. People don’t want to admit it but this is pay for sex. She can demand anything she wants in a contract. This is what voluntaryism is all about. Since I started my career, I have taken contracts seriously. Those are the only things I follow, as long as they are what I sign, and not under duress. Any other “contract” does not apply.
Next up… the dead bedroom.
She got the ring but didn’t think to wait for the papers.
Are women usually this stupid? No wonder I was bad at it.
http://image.blingee.com/images19/content/output/000/000/000/7b2/770293674_1024299.gif
RIP, rule of law.
http://market-ticker.org
Our Obama-Fed-Goldman Sachs “recovery” in nine charts.
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/07/17/obamas-economy-in-9-charts/
Sunday funnies from TBP. Enjoy!
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/07/17/sunday-funnies-121/
Revenge of the neocons. Sorry, Jebrah. The Republican base ain’t buying the snake oil you’re pitching.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-17/jeb-bush-lays-out-his-vision-reclaim-republican-party-donald-trump
The plantation is history, Barbara.
Which rent-a-mob packages did Soros purchase? The unruly-but-compliant, or the “burn this mo-fo down”?
https://www.yahoo.com/news/cleveland-preps-protests-eve-republican-confab-053246837.html?ref=gs
3 officers killed in Baton Rogue.
Race war, race war, race war..
Don’t worry loanowners, your houses and stawks prices will go thru the roof.
“Race war, race war, race war..”
I thought President “the Cambridge police acted stupidly” straightened this all out the other night with his Town Hall On Race “shit show.”
People Aren’t Too Happy About President Obama’s Town Hall On Race
One activist called it “a bunch of fluff.”
Julia Craven Reporter, The Huffington Post
07/15/2016 03:15 pm 15:15:27 | Updated 23 hours ago
WASHINGTON ― President Barack Obama participated in an ABC News town hall on Thursday to discuss racism and police brutality, but many viewers saw it as a missed opportunity, saying there wasn’t nearly enough emphasis on the need for comprehensive police reform.
“The President and The People: A National Conversation,” an hour-long program, was hosted by “ABC World News Tonight” anchor David Muir and moderated by ESPN’s Jemele Hill and ABC News correspondent Deborah Roberts.
The goal of the conversation was to address the black community’s relationship with police following the deaths of Alton Sterling and Philando Castile, two black men who were shot and killed by police last week in Louisiana and Minnesota, respectively.
But to some viewers, the discussion seemed to focus too much on what black people can do to avoid being targeted by law enforcement, and not enough on the need to shift police culture and hold officers accountable for excessive force.
Patrisse Cullors, a co-founder of Black Lives Matter who attended the town hall, told The Huffington Post the event was a “shit show.”
“It was honestly one of the worst experiences you could’ve put families through,” she said. “It was all about apologizing about the cops, it was just a mess. They closed it off with a little black boy wanting to be a cop. It felt like a love fest for cops. The entire show was about respectability politics.”
In fairness, Obama did explain at one point that when people say “black lives matter,” they’re not saying that only black lives matter. He also acknowledged that black men face a “greater presumption of dangerousness” than other people, which makes their interactions with police much more fraught (although, of course, it’s not just black men who’ve been victims of police violence).
The societal fault lines are widening. Civil unrest isn’t so bullish for housing.
It should be bullish for housing in outlying areas away from high crime zones; not so much for high crime zone housing. You see this all around the country.
For a good case in point, check out home prices on “comparables” with respect to #s of bedrooms, square footage, # of bedrooms and baths in Bethesda, MD to those on similar homes in nearby Baltimore, MD. Affordable housing is definitely available in Baltimore, if you are willing to live with the crime rates there.
Bethesda home prices? Fuggetaboutit.
Posted on July 11, 2016 by Paul Mirengoff
Baltimore descends into chaos thanks to city’s failure to back the police
Jermaine Schofield was gunned down in Baltimore on Sunday, one of three murder victims in the city that day. Today, Schofield’s family held a vigil for him.
During the vigil, a gunman fired at attendees. Five were hit. Thankfully, all are expected to survive.
These events are not an aberration. Baltimore has descended into chaos since, in the aftermath of Freddy Gray’s death, the city failed to back its police force.
Murders surged a staggering 63 percent in 2015, with 344 people killed. This year hasn’t been quite as bad so far, but the murder rate remains abnormally high.
Meanwhile, Baltimore’s police force is shrinking dramatically. According to Blake Neff of the Daily Caller, at the beginning of 2015, Baltimore had 2,805 police officers. By the end of the year, the force was down to 2,634 officers, a drop of 6.1 percent. In June of this year, there were only 2,445 officers in the force, a decline of 6.8 percent since January.
…
Baltimore, MD
Listings & Sales
Data through May 31, 2016
$129 Median sale price / sq ft
Bethesda, MD
Listings & Sales
Data through May 31, 2016
$457 Median sale price / sq ft
Baltimore Crime Rates per 1000 Residents
Violent 13.65
Property 48.06
Total 61.71
Bethesda Annual Crimes per 1000 Residents
Violent 0.94
Property 14.43
Total 15.37
It’s blue versus you, that is the real issue. Not race.
∆ right there.
Black police officer lives matter.
Slain Baton Rouge police officer felt ‘tested to the core’ by recent tensions
By Mike Murphy
Published: July 17, 2016 9:36 p.m. ET
One of the Baton Rouge police officers killed Sunday wrote on Facebook (FB, -0.37%) just days ago how recent tensions with the community left him “tired physically and emotionally.”
“I swear to God I love this city but I wonder if the city loves me,” Officer Montrell Jackson, 32, a 10-year veteran of the force, wrote July 8.
That was a day after a shooting in Dallas left five officers dead, and three days after the fatal police shooting of Alton Sterling in Baton Rouge that sparked tense demonstrations.
“In uniform I get nasty hateful looks and out of uniform some consider me a threat. . . . These last 3 days have tested me to the core,” Jackson wrote.
“These are trying times. Please don’t let hate infect your heart. This city MUST and WILL get better. I’m working in these streets so any protesters, officers, friends, family or whoever, if you see me and need a hug or want to say a prayer. I got you.”
Jackson leaves behind a wife and 4-month-old son.
Read: 3 police officers killed, 3 wounded in Baton Rouge
The other officers killed Sunday were police rookie Matthew Gerald, 41, and Brad Garafola, 45, an East Baton Rouge sheriff’s deputy.
…
I heard a bit today on DC news radio about how to afford the mortgage. They suggested roommates or a 2nd job on the weekends.
Redfin has yet another spin it. Definitely making lemonade out of lemons. I got a chuckle
Low-Paying Jobs Are Good for Housing, Especially Now
By Nela Richardson
March 6, 2015
Redfin
While low-paying jobs in hospitality and retail are easy to dismiss in terms of their significance to the housing market, they do in fact play a role. In the face of continued wage stagnation, these jobs are the unsung heroes of the housing market. For a family with one primary wage earner, the addition of a second income, even if it’s from a part-time or low-paying job, could make or break their ability to save for a down payment or afford a monthly mortgage payment.
The fact is, it takes many middle-class families two incomes instead of one to afford a home. A second gig at a bar or hotel plays an important role in the household budget, especially when wages refuse to grow.
https://www.redfin.com/blog/2015/03/low-paying-jobs-are-good-for-housing-especially-now.html
Well I’m sure the federal government and the central bank will be delighted to hear this bit of good news.
uncle FED will make u rich!
Sure is a lot of strangers trying to convince Joe Q Public that they are doing the right thing by financing a house.
The second amendment in play, just as the founding fathers intended:
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/baton-rouge-police-reports-multiple-officers-shot-n611101
Top News
Thu Jul 7, 2016 | 1:05 AM EDT
Baltimore saw steep fall in police numbers as murder rate soared
A young boy greets police officers in riot gear during a march in Baltimore, Maryland May 1, 2015 following the decision to charge six Baltimore police officers — including one with murder — in the death of Freddie Gray, a black man who was arrested and suffered a fatal neck injury while riding in a moving police van, the city’s chief prosecutor said on Friday.
Reuters/Lucas Jackson/Files
By Scott Malone
(Reuters) - Already beset by a public outcry over the high-profile death of a black man in police custody and a rising murder rate, Baltimore’s police department is facing another headache: it’s shrinking fast.
The number of uniformed officers in the mid-Atlantic city fell 6.1 percent last year and has shrunk by even more in the first half of this year, according to police data seen by Reuters and not previously reported.
The fall in 2015 was the biggest decline in police numbers among nine comparably-sized U.S. cities reviewed by Reuters. The police force in Detroit and El Paso shrank by 4.9 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively, while Denver and Las Vegas saw increases of over 5 percent.
The reasons for the fall are unclear, but it comes at a difficult time when the number of murders and other violent crimes have risen sharply in Baltimore and many other U.S. cities.
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Meh
https://www.amazon.com/Americas-Counter-Revolution-Constitution-Sheldon-Richman/dp/0692687912
Stocks are the new bonds…at least until the onset of the next recession, when corporate income dries up.
As bond yields plummet, investors turn to stocks for dependable income
By The Associated Press
Friday, July 15, 2016, 10:42 p.m.
NEW YORK — As bond yields plunge to record lows and investors look for income, they’re pouring money into stocks, sending the market to record highs.
Once upon a time, if you were an investor who wanted a steady stream of income, you would probably think of U.S. Treasury bonds. Backed by the solid credit of the U.S. government, those bonds were considered an ultra-dependable form of income that wouldn’t lose value.
You couldn’t count on stocks to pay you a return like that. The dividends stocks paid were usually smaller, and you ran the risk of losing some of your investment if the stock price declined.
Now that stocks, broadly speaking, pay more than many bonds do, investors’ thinking has changed.
“Stocks have become the new bonds,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank. “Income investors have opted to invest in equities versus lower-yielding bonds.”
The drop in bond yields has been dramatic. At the start of 2014, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 3 percent, and a decade ago it was twice that much. Now, it’s around 1.6 percent.
The dividend yield on S&P 500 stocks, meanwhile, hasn’t changed much over the past few years. It’s around 2.1 percent, far more than what the 10-year Treasury pays.
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The Financial Times
Investment Strategy
Brexit vote prompts flood of cash into money market funds
Investors postpone allocation decisions amid market volatility
HSBC has moved cash into money market funds as it waits for fixed income yields to rise
14 hours ago
by: Aliya Ram
Investors are pouring cash into low-risk money market funds as they postpone allocation decisions amid market volatility and weaker business confidence.
Sterling-denominated money market funds have seen more than $30bn of inflows since October last year, with a spike of new money in the aftermath of the UK’s vote to leave the EU, according to EPFR Global, the research house.
Offshore money market funds denominated in US dollars, meanwhile, have attracted $24bn since the Brexit vote, data from provider iMoneyNet show.
By contrast, equity funds have seen billions pulled from their coffers — adding strain on asset managers already contending with falling profits.
“We’re seeing inflows from larger corporate institutions that might want to leave cash with us,” said Craig Inches, fixed income fund manager at Royal London Asset Management, which oversees £88bn.
“We’re [also] seeing investors who want to reduce the duration of the bonds that they have but keep returns.”
A so-called “flight to safety” after Britain’s vote to leave the EU and the prospect of lower interest rates and quantitative easing from central banks have compressed sovereign bond yields, which move inversely to price. Meanwhile, stock markets have shed trillions of dollars since the start of the year over concerns about global growth and the strength of the eurozone.
Money market funds — which are cash-like investment vehicles with higher returns — typically purchase highly-rated government bonds and securities, so have also seen yields compressed by low interest rates. But they have proved popular for parking cash as investment decisions are postponed due to uncertainty.
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Apparently its mainly U.S. stocks to which investors are turning; not so much European shares.
Brexit Speeds Flight From European Stocks
Money has been leaving European stock funds, as political and economic uncertainty spooks investors
Fund flows suggest investors have beat a retreat from Europe after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. Above, Parliament in London.
Photo: Getty Images
By Riva Gold
Updated July 13, 2016 5:18 p.m. ET
In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, the flow of money leaving European stock funds risks becoming a torrent.
Amid a broader exit from stocks, the flight from Europe has been the worst of any region, at 2.5% of assets under management, according to data from HSBC Global Research.
After the U.K. voted to leave the European Union on June 23, European mutual funds reported their fourth-highest weekly outflow on record, the bank said, on a similar scale to the sovereign-debt crisis several years ago. The flows have since continued.
Since the referendum through Tuesday, $15.3 billion was redeemed from European stock funds tracked by EPFR Global, as outflows continued for a 22nd consecutive week, the longest streak in at least eight years. By early July, more than $54 billion had left the region’s stock funds this year, it said.
Following a brutal start to the year, many investors had hoped the tide would turn for European stocks after the U.K. vote, certain a triumph for the “Remain” camp would lift uncertainty blocking investment in the region and unlock a fresh wave of cash. In early June, global fund managers favored the region’s stocks, albeit less than they did at the start of the year, according to surveys by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
But since the June 23 vote, the pain for the region’s stock markets has deepened, as economic and political uncertainty has undermined investors’ confidence.
“Going into the referendum vote, we were starting to see investors withdraw a bit of money from European funds,” said Robert Parkes, equity strategist at HSBC Global Research. “The flow year to date has generally been more of a steady outflow than a flood; the danger is the steady outflow turns into a flood of money exiting Europe.”
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell more than 11% in the two days after the vote, and though it has regained some ground is still down 3% since then and 8.2% this year, even as stocks in the U.S. have recovered to surpass all-time highs. On Wednesday, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.1%, snapping a four-day winning streak, while the U.S.’s Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% to another record.
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A preview of coming attractions once the Comrades of Proven Worth establish their permanent Democrat supermajority, then impose their collectivist kleptocracy. Forward!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/14/no-cash-no-cure-zimbabwes-hospitals-buckle-amid-economic-crisis
Globalization is grand:
https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/4taag0/young_americans_be_happy_for_what_you_have_fire/
Dumidol Fanger doesn’t necessarily help attract corporate political donations.
But since Trump is rolling in billions of dollars, can’t he easily pony up the $6 million to cover the Cleveland festivities?
GOP Cleveland organizers beg Adelson for $6 million
The GOP admits two dozen companies have pulled out because of Trump.
By Alex Isenstadt and Shane Goldmacher
07/14/16 07:02 PM EDT
GOP Cleveland organizers have asked requested $6 million from billionaire couple Sheldon and Miriam Adelson after two dozen companies have pulled out. | Getty
CLEVELAND — Millions of dollars short and running out of time, organizers of the Republican National Convention have written an urgent request for $6 million to Las Vegas billionaire couple Sheldon and Miriam Adelson to cover the bills for next week’s festivities.
In a letter to the Adelsons, obtained by POLITICO, the Cleveland 2016 Host Committee revealed the names of more than two dozen prominent corporations and individuals who have reneged on a collective $8.1 million in pledged donations.
The letter represents the most public acknowledgment to date that Donald Trump has directly cost convention organizers millions of fundraising dollars.
“Over the past couple months, negative publicity around our potential nominee resulted in a considerable number of pledges backing out from their commitments,” the letter says.
It goes on to list the companies and wealthy individuals who have withdrawn their financial commitments. Among those who have canceled their donations, according to the letter, are David Koch ($1 million), FedEx ($500,000), Visa ($100,000), Pepsi ($500,000) and Coca-Cola ($1 million).
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Opinion
Editorials
Collins’ pay shows Poway Unified’s chaos
By The San Diego Union-Tribune Editorial Board | 3:23 p.m. July 13, 2016
SAN DIEGO, February 9, 2016 | With board President Michelle O’Connor-Ratcliff sitting at right, School Superintendent John Collins speaks during a Poway Unified School District board meeting at Rancho Bernardo High School on Feb. 9. |
-Mandatory Photo Credit: Photo by Hayne Palmour IV/San Diego Union-Tribune, LLC
An eye-popping audit alleging former Poway Unified School District Superintendent John Collins schemed to improperly receive more than $345,000 in unauthorized compensation doesn’t just reflect poorly on him or illustrate why the school board had good reason to fire him. The pervasiveness of Collins’ pocket-lining and the fact that he did it for years also shows that a school system long held in high regard is actually at a low point.
Collins’ attorney insists the audit is “replete with errors,” ignores evidence that supports Collins and includes “questionable” presentations of summaries, but the sheer volume of evidence showing Collins manipulating his own pay by taking payouts for vacation time without authorization and receiving pay raises he was not entitled to seems to overwhelm any defense he might offer.
This is the third major indictment of Poway Unified’s management since 2011. So much for teaching the children well.
Poway Unified’s rich history of strong academics is a source of pride for parents and students at its 12 schools in Poway and 26 schools in north San Diego. Yet in some ways, this history amounts to an attractive facade that detracts from the fact that the district’s leadership has lost its way. Collins’ financial improprieties were not even an issue when rumblings began emerging late last year that board members wanted him gone. Their reasons were plain, if not far-reaching enough.
Poway Unified had become the butt of national jokes in 2012 after details were disclosed about the district’s 2011 decision to approve the issuance of $105 million in unusual, controversial capital appreciation bonds that had a long-term cost of nearly $1 billion. Key facts about the awful deal were kept from the public until after it was in place. But Collins defended the bond’s approval and suggested its critics simply didn’t grasp school finances.
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