Familiar Anxieties And Debates
The Register-Guard reports from Oregon. “Across Lane County, and especially in Eugene, many local real estate agents and housing market analysts say prices are rising at a pace not seen since the pre-recession boom years more than a decade ago. The record-breaking home prices — not just in Eugene but in many markets in Oregon and nationwide — are triggering familiar anxieties and debates. Are we in a housing-market bubble — or for that matter a stock market bubble — that’s inflated by desperate buyers and is doomed to burst? Or are the escalating home prices sustainable and reasonable?”
“Lisa Frey, a buyer’s agent with Keller Williams Realty in Eugene, has worked in real estate sales locally for 19 years. She watched Californians flood the market here during the mid-2000s boom. As the economy has recovered from the recession, they’ve returned to the Eugene market, competing with local buyers. The hot real estate market in California allows owners there to sell their property and direct the cash into Oregon. ‘The last six months is when I really noticed the frenzy start picking up,’ Frey said. ‘I just talked to somebody on Sunday who said, ‘We hate California. We want out.’”
“The recent price escalation puts pressure on buyers to up their offers and make snap decisions. That concerns real estate brokers such as Ron Blacquiere, who owns Equinox Real Estate in Eugene with his wife, Bess. After years of depressed home prices and inventory rates above 10 months, the market appeared to be heading toward a sweet spot between a buyer’s and seller’s market around late 2014, he said. The surge in prices ‘has kind of been in the making over the last 18 months,’ Blacquiere said. ‘The rapid increases give me pause, they make me nervous.’”
The Pueblo Chieftain in Colorado. “Real estate agents will tell you Pueblo’s housing market has heated up in the past few years — though they are divided over whether the cause is people coming to the area for legalized marijuana. ‘We’re going through a seller’s market right now that I’ve never seen before in my career here in Pueblo,’ said Betty Martinez, owner of a local real estate company. ‘You’re seeing multiple offers on property that are above the asking price.’”
“Laurie Linn, of the Pueblo Housing Authority, said that for whatever reason, Pueblo clearly is at the top of the list for many housing investors. ‘I had a call from a Denver man who asked me, ‘If I buy 25 or 50 houses in Pueblo, can I rent them all?’ she recounted. ‘And I told him that right now he could.’”
The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “The housing market in northwest Houston has remained steady this summer, despite the downturn in the energy sector. And builders are adjusting to suit the needs of the market. Last year, there were many builders who offered homes priced more than $300,000. But the demand now is for lower priced homes. ‘Builders start to adjust the product line they have out there,’ said Jill Wente, a real estate agent with Better Homes and Gardens, Gary Greene, in Spring. ‘We’re seeing some builders come back and make adjustments to offer lower prices in the under $300s to accommodate for that segment of the market where the demand is definitely still there.’”
“The more expensive homes are sitting on the market longer, and inventory is therefore greater. ‘It’s a different market in a sense that we’re seeing more inventory available in the higher price point,’ Wente said. ‘Buyers have more to choose from. They are taking their time on the higher price points.’”
“The housing market has returned to more normal levels, said David Patton with Heritage Texas Properties. ‘Over the $300,000 range, homes are staying on the market longer,’ Patton said. ‘That’s not necessarily a bad thing. It’s just not the frenzy we’ve had the last two years. It’s more a normal market.’”
“‘For higher price points, it is a buyers’ market because they have options they did not have in prior years,’ Wente said. ‘For lower price points, it’s still a sellers’ market.’ And more communities will be developed. ‘We still have land for them to build on,’ Wente said.”
The only reason anyone would ever go to Pueblo is to score. It’s obviously the marijuana.
‘The hot real estate market in California allows owners there to sell their property and direct the cash into Oregon. ‘The last six months is when I really noticed the frenzy start picking up,’ Frey said. ‘I just talked to somebody on Sunday who said, ‘We hate California. We want out.’
Can we call it a bubble now that hoards of equity locusts are spreading out across neighboring cities and states?
‘‘I had a call from a Denver man who asked me, ‘If I buy 25 or 50 houses in Pueblo…’
‘It’s just not the frenzy we’ve had the last two years’
About this timeline: it hasn’t been that long.
‘the market appeared to be heading toward a sweet spot between a buyer’s and seller’s market around late 2014, he said. The surge in prices ‘has kind of been in the making over the last 18 months,’ Blacquiere said’
‘We hate California. We want out’
Before anyone accuses me of bashing the place, I’ll point out that was a Golden Stater who said that.
Yep. If my 2 big clients in LA metro leave, I am leavin too.
Would be great at half the price, but I’m out come the end of August.
I once crossed paths in Boise with DennisN, a fellow who used to post here quite often. Not sure if he is still around under a different name. But he is a California refugee who could shed light on Boise as an alternative locale to settle.
The Golden State is turning brown.
I was astounded about all the dead trees even up past Yosemite valley. The bark beatle and the drought have wrought great devastation.
60 million dead trees in the sierra hills.
I’ve never seen anything like it.
most of it is the western pine beetle. It is about the size of a grain of rice.
ponderosa pines defense is to produce a pitch as the beetle bores through the bark into the cambium layer.
Without a lot of water the trees ability to fend off an attack very pitch tubes is futile. I have seen strong vigorous trees killed by these beetle rampages.
From what I have noticed the beetle kill is a lot worse at lower elevations, like 2500- 4500′.
The problem is with the warmer winters is the snow level rises. You might get precipitation but when it falls as snow and melts the soils have more time to absorb it. When it rains hard a lot of that water runs off and never gets into the ground.
We got decent precipitation last year but hardly any snow at lower elevations. It was mainly > 5000′.
I have seen pictures of the mountain area where I lived as a kid near Yosemite. The brown trees are shocking. But I am thinking that once all of them die off there is nothing for the beetles to feed on and they will die off. This deforestation probably happened hundreds of times in the history of the Sierras.
I live here and I’ve come to loathe it.
I love my part in the hills around Saddleback Mtn in OC
Unless the person is trying hard to follow every dictatorial law made by the communists of Sacramento, I don’t understand how a person can hate California.
Particularly when you got Roths, crypto currency, and precious metals and mining stocks.
“Can we call it a bubble now that hoards of equity locusts are spreading out across neighboring cities and states?”
We have all been here before, we have all been here before…
“sell their property and direct the cash into Oregon. ”
“can we call it a bubble now?”
I guess it’s a bubble, but there’s a huge difference. In the first bubble, equity locusts didn’t “sell” their Cali properties; they did a cash-out refi for a low-down payment on Oregon properties, which of course blew up. This time they totally uprooting from CA and using profits to buy an Oregon house outright, or at least with a high down payment. So the locust is not going to go underwater.
But I wonder what they are all doing for jobs?
A distinction without a difference considering they’re using borrowed money. Where its borrowed from makes no difference
If they are (for example) selling a $750K house in Cali, walking away with $250K profit, and buying a $250K house outright in OR, then they are NOT using borrowed money.
They bought low, sold high, and used the proceeds to get out of debt and rather live below their means. Just like HBB likes to lecture us on a daily basis.
You got a problem with that? Or are you just p-o’d that they bought a used housing instead of buying a $50/ft2 pre-fab crapshack from your company?
[that said, save your cheeto ire for the bagholder who bought the $750K Cali house]
Conjecture Donk.
The reality is CA Debt Donkeys are underwater as deep as you.
‘Dallas made it onto Realtor.com’s new list of the country’s 10 “overheating” real estate markets. Dallas ranked as the fifth most overheated home market in the country. Austin was in third place. More expensive Northern California markets — San Jose and San Francisco — topped the list of cities Realtor.com analysts say are on its “bubble watch.”
‘Realtor.com looked at the 50 largest U.S. home markets for factors including the rate of home price increase, inventory, median wages and new home construction.’
The report said about Dallas: “Although the local oil industry took a beating, prices in the Texas city still ballooned 9 percent last year. That’s because more companies are moving and expanding into the area, such as Toyota relocating its North American headquarters from California to nearby Plano.”
‘Smoke is predicting that price increases in the 10 hot U.S. markets will slow or stop when buyers can no longer afford properties. North Texas median home sales prices are now almost 80 percent higher than they were at the worst of the Great Recession in early 2010.’
‘In June the median price of a pre-owned single-family home sold in North Texas hit $237,000 — the all-time high for properties sold by real estate agents.’
‘The Austin housing market is heating up, but does the same hold true for rentals? The most recent report from rental website Zumper shows that prices have actually decreased in our fair city.’
‘It’s not a significant drop, but the median cost of a one-bedroom unit in Austin was $1,110 for June down $20 since December. And on a neighborhood-by-neighborhood basis, there are a a few surprising decreases.’
‘Downtown Austin is still the most expensive area to rent, but the current price is $1,860, down $60 from December’s median. Rent in Zilker went down by $125 (now a median of $1,525); East Cesar Chavez decreased by $70 ($1,630); West Austin is $70 cheaper ($1,420); Holly decreased by $60 ($1,540); and Old West Austin went down $50 ($1,650).’
Inventory inventory inventory. And not a buyer in sight at any price.
Household Formation Craters
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/2014/12/HHFGS
I just saw this from July 14, 2016:
‘Home prices continued to rise in June and the number of properties on the market in the Portland area remains very low, but there are signs the real estate market may be loosening, according to the latest monthly report from the Regional Multiple Listing Service.’
‘The 4,501 new listings last month marked a 5.2 percent year-over-year increase and the most June listings since 2008. And for the third straight month, the number of closed sales decreased compared to the same month in 2015 – 3,158 this year versus 3,302 last year. Pending sales also saw a year-over-year decline of 6 percent.’
The dumpster fire continues in Philly:
BREAKING: Bernie Protesters CLIMB FENCE -STORM MEDIA ROW- PEPPER SPRAYED! Video at the link. lol.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/07/breaking-bernie-protesters-locked-dnc-convention-climb-fence-video/
And an unsubstantiated tweet says all 700 Bernie volunteers have been stripped of credentials and barred from Wells Fargo for tonight.
https://twitter.com/tonybrasunas/status/758030566075797509
Bill Clinton just nailed the speech today.
The enthusiasm of the Democrats is way more refreshing than the vestiges of Nuremburg spouted by the Lord of Hate last week.
Trump looks like a clown.
Hillary is acting very Presidential.
IRS launches investigation of the Clinton Foundation.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-27/irs-launches-investigation-clinton-foundation
The villain of both conventions: Goldman Sachs
By Jeremy Olshan
Published: July 26, 2016 6:12 p.m. ET
PHILADELPHIA (MarketWatch) — The only common ground between the Republican and Democratic conventions is a shared insult: Goldman Sachs.
Donald Trump supporters shouted the name of the Wall Street bank at Ted Cruz’s wife Heidi last week in Cleveland, spitting out the words as though it were an epithet. (She worked there.) And the “Bernie or Bust” hecklers used the same “Goldman Sachs” chant against Hillary Clinton. (She gave paid speeches to bank employees).
“It was truly amazing that Goldman Sachs was held up as a villain at both parties’ conventions,” William Goetzmann, a professor of finance and management studies at Yale University told MarketWatch.
But how did Goldman become shorthand to vilify red and blue opponents alike? And why is trashing big money now as important to populist political campaigns as raising big money is to running them?
(Goldman Sachs declined to comment.)
…
That’s the biggest piece of BS cheerleading I’ve seen in a while. “Oh poor widdle goldman sachs, whatever did they do to you? whine whine.”
Corruption triumphs for the Democrat Party.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/26/hillary-clinton-presidential-nomination-democratic-convention
Debbie goes under the bus, and the wheels on the bus go round and round….
FINANCIAL TIMES
Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank in settlement talks with DoJ over mortgage probe
Revenues drop 20 per cent against backdrop of ‘challenging market environment’
43 minutes ago
an hour ago
by: James Shotter in Frankfurt
Deutsche Bank said it had begun settlement talks with the US Department of Justice over its probe into the German bank’s origination and securitisation of mortgage-backed securities, as it posted a slump in second-quarter profits.
Along with a joint US-UK probe into alleged mirror trades involving Deutsche’s Russian business, the DoJ’s investigation into alleged miss-selling of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) is one of the biggest legal uncertainties hanging over the bank.
John Cryan, chief executive, has made clear that he wants to resolve Deutsche’s big outstanding legal cases as soon as possible, and said earlier this year that he would get personally involved in the efforts to do so.
…
why dont they send checks to the victims of these shysters instead of bailing them out?
Increasing aggregate demand is the holy grail of economists, in their thinking about how to get an economy out of a slump (of course, if the source of supply is in another country, that’s another story).
However, if pro-debt policies and lower interest rates actually suppress aggregate demand, then economists and central banks have been prescribing exactly the wrong medicine for the patient.
Economists Give Up on Milton Friedman’s Biggest Idea
by Noah Smith
Bloomberg
July 26, 2016
One of the core pieces of modern macroeconomic theory, handed down to us by the great Milton Friedman, probably missed the mark. And now it might be on the way out. And this shift has big implications for how we think about economic policy and finance.
[...]
A blow to the mathematical version of the theory came in 2006, when Georgetown economists Matthew Canzoneri, Robert Cumby and Behzad Diba wrote a paper testing the consumption Euler equation directly against real financial data — something that, for reasons that escape me, no economist seems to have actually tried before. The equation says that when interest rates are high, people save more and consume less — this is the way they smooth their consumption, as Friedman predicted. But Canzoneri et al. found that the opposite is true — for whatever reason, the fact is that people tend to consume more when rates are high.
Oops.
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-26/economists-give-up-on-milton-friedman-s-biggest-idea
How long can capital gains from bogus stock valuations keep states budgets from going into freefall?
Can we lower interest rates some more to boost home prices?
Remember. Nothing accelerates the economy and creates jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.
“I just talked to somebody on Sunday who said, ‘We hate California. We want out.’”
Okay. As long as you agree to not ever come back.
I checked out a long time ago.
But I could never leave. It’s easy to love California when you ignore unjust laws and politicians. That is what being a real Californian is about.
The world will be a better place when the welfare capital of the US finally dries up and falls off.
You mean Mississippi?
“CALIFORNIA:WELFARE CAPITAL OF THE U.S.”
http://www.radixjournal.com/altright-archive/altright-archive/main/blogs/malinvestments/california-welfare-capital-of-the-us
It is what it is my good friend. It is what it is.
Do you know where the cheap money flows from Eccles building? Here’s a hint….It’s not Mississipi.
See my link below. Red states have more welfare. Mississippi is number 2 and New Mexico is number 1
http://www.businessinsider.com/red-states-are-welfare-queens-2011-8
Federal workers told to stay home if it’s too hot outside
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/federal-workers-told-to-stay-home-if-its-too-hot-outside/article/2597769
If you’re”working from home” your work isn’t very important.
Clinton War Criminal Says Trump Has Destroyed US Foreign Policy
Madeleine Albright responsible for slaughter of 500,000 Iraqi children
Kurt Nimmo - July 27, 2016 Comments
CNN rolled out the old war horse Madeleine Albright on Tuesday to push the Putin conspiracy angle on the DNC leak.
Albright told the convention Donald Trump had “already done damage” to American foreign policy “just by running for president.” She said defeating Trump would represent a defeat for Putin and the Russians.
“Putin is eager to see Trump win, and that should worry every American,” she said. “Take it from someone who fled the Iron Curtain—I know what happens when you give the Russians a green light.”
Secretary of Hate
The damage inflicted by Albright when she was “Secretary of Hate,” as Bob Djurdjevic characterized her time at the State Department, is almost incalculable.
In 1998, as Bill Clinton unleashed cruise missiles on Iraq, murdering dozens of civilians in response to Saddam Hussein thumbing his nose at the United Nations, Albright declared: “If we have to use force, it is because we are America. We are the indispensable nation. We stand tall. We see farther into the future.”
In 2013, she admitted the bombing of Yugoslavia by her boss was illegal, but decided it was fair. Clinton teamed up with NATO in 1999 and conducted 38,400 sorties, including 10,484 strike sorties, in a terror bombing campaign that lasted 78 days and destroyed infrastructure, commercial buildings, schools, health institutions, media houses and cultural monuments.
In addition to convincing Clinton to bomb Yugoslavia with depleted uranium and cluster munitions to force Slobodan Milošević to sign the Rambouillet peace accord, she pushed to send US troops to Bosnia, according to the recollection of then Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, Colin Powell.
Hillary Clinton celebrated the illegal attack. In October 2000, The New York Times reported Clinton “cited American involvement in Bosnia and Kosovo as examples of foreign engagements she favored on moral and strategic grounds.” Clinton urged her husband to bomb Yugoslavia without congressional approval and said what “do we have NATO for if not to defend our way of life?”
NATO also defended the way of life of the Kosovo Liberation Army, a terrorist gang of ethnic Albanian separatists. The KLA effort for an independent Kosovo supported by Albright and the United States encouraged similar terrorist groups in the Balkans, the Middle East, and Russia. The Kosovo precedent was responsible for inspiring Chechen terrorists in Russia and the murder of scores of Russian citizens.
Career Achievement: 500,000 Dead Children
Albright’s crowning achievement, however, was the murder of half a million Iraqi children under a brutal and medieval sanctions regime imposed on the country by the United States and the United Nations.
“We have heard that a half million children have died. I mean, that’s more children than died in Hiroshima. And, you know, is the price worth it?” asked Lesley Stahl of 60 Minutes asked Albright in 1996.
“I think this is a very hard choice, but the price—we think the price is worth it,” Albright responded.
On Tuesday, the war criminal Albright warmed up the crowd for Bill Clinton, described at the time of the Yugoslavia bombing raid by Edward Herman as the world’s “leading active war criminal.”
The crowd was clueless about the magnitude of the crimes committed—and those to be committed if Hillary Clinton wins. The corporate media once again failed to note the complicity of Albright and Clinton in mass murder and crimes against humanity, preferring instead to dwell on the alleged DNC hacking by Vladimir Putin, an accusation without definitive evidence that is now passed off as a fait accompli.
lbright told the convention Donald Trump had “already done damage” to American foreign policy “just by running for president.”
What a fookin’ c**t! What next? The fact the Trump or anyone who opposes their views were born to this country?
Miami-Dade retail market softens, while Broward and Palm Beach thrive
Retail markets in Broward and Palm Beach continue tightening
July 26, 2016 05:30PM
By Sean Stewart-Muniz
http://therealdeal.com/miami/2016/07/26/miami-dade-retail-shows-some-softness-while-broward-and-palm-beach-thrive/
Home prices are rising across the country, but they’re going up faster in South Florida, according to a housing index released Tuesday. Prices in Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties rose 6.6 percent from a year ago, data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index show. Nationally, prices…
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/realestate/
Boots on the ground data.
Miami Beach, FL Housing Prices Crashing; Plunge 5% YoY On Skyrocketing Inventory
http://www.zillow.com/miami-beach-fl/home-values/
“The peak was in the first six months of 2009, when there were 63,336 new cases filed,”
That was just about the time TPTB put an artificial but very successful floor under foreclosures and plummeting house prices.
South Florida foreclosures down sharply from 2009
Paul Owers
July 13 2016
New foreclosure cases continue to decline across South Florida, as a robust job market boosts homebuyer confidence and low interest rates help keep monthly payments affordable.
Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties totaled 6,485 foreclosure starts in the first half of the year, down 12 percent from the same period in 2015, according to a report from RealtyTrac Inc., a foreclosure listing firm in Irvine, Calif. And foreclosures are down 37 percent compared with the first half of 2014.
The peak was in the first six months of 2009, when there were 63,336 new cases filed, according to RealtyTrac.
“The [South Florida] filings now are basically one-tenth of what they were at the peak,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac. “That puts things in perspective.”
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/realestate/