August 4, 2016

If The Boom Does End, It Wouldn’t Be The First Time

The Los Angeles Times reports from California. “Something is happening downtown that would shock many renters living in an increasingly expensive Los Angeles: Some landlords are letting tenants live for free. At the recently opened 263-unit Hanover Olympic apartments on Olive Street, new residents can get a free month’s rent when they move in. So can new tenants at Sares-Regis Group’s new 240-unit Wakaba LA in Little Tokyo. Developer Carmel Partners is offering an even sweeter deal. ‘Summer savings for a limited time,’ says the website for its new Eighth & Grand complex, where a studio starts at $2,300 and residents can get four to five weeks of rent free and up to 12 months of free parking.”

“The downtown development boom that’s transformed the region’s civic and commercial center into a vibrant residential neighborhood has been so great that it’s raising questions about how long the heady times can last. ‘Concessions have been virtually nonexistent across L.A. for several years. Demand had been so high there just wasn’t any need for them,’ said Steve Basham, senior market analyst with CoStar Group Inc.”

“The new dynamic, Basham said, can be chalked up to simple supply and demand. In the last year and a half, more than 3,700 apartments have opened downtown and an additional 6,260 are currently under construction, according to real estate firm Transwestern. When those apartments are finished, they’ll boost the number of downtown residences — both for sale and rentals — by about 15% to more than 40,000. Thousands more apartments are planned, as well.”

“Lenders have grown more selective in the projects they fund. ‘Are there that many people that can afford the $3,000 a-month rents?’ Chris Casey, a managing director in JLL’s real estate investment banking group. ‘People are looking around and asking themselves: Are we in the seventh inning, the eighth inning’ of the development cycle?”

“If the boom does end, it wouldn’t be the first time for downtown. Amid last decade’s housing bubble, developers focused heavily on new condominiums, only to slash prices, mothball their plans or turn the buildings into rentals when the financial crisis and recession turned boom to bust. This time developers are focusing on apartments and at a much greater scale.”

The Real Deal on Florida. “For Miami-Dade County’s renters, relief may be within reach. By the end of 2016, developers are slated to deliver the largest influx of new inventory in the past 17 years, according to a new report from Marcus & Millichap. An ‘exceptional amount of new development’ in the pipeline this year will likely outpace that demand and cause vacancies to rise. Miami-Dade already saw 2,100 new apartments open their doors during the first quarter, nearly matching in three months the 2,440 units that were delivered in the entirety of 2015. And the Marcus & Millichap report said another 4,640 apartments are in the pipeline, marking the biggest inventory spike since 1999.”

“As noted in the report, a lack of land for single-family housing has brought multifamily projects into prominence over the past year. Now, a flood of new condos — 11,000 in Miami-Dade’s pipeline for the next two years — could also end up as rentals, potentially leading to an oversupply of apartments.”

“Meanwhile, the volume of investment deals has already begun slowing over the past 12 months. According to the report, multifamily sales fell 12 percent year-over-year. Low cap rates have distanced the gap between asking prices from property owners and investors’ yield expectations. Despite that, prices continued their uphill sprint in Miami-Dade. Multifamily deals averaged $195,300 per unit in the first quarter, up 12.8 percent compared to last year.”

The Star Tribune in Minnesota. “When Mary and Mitchell Roach decided this spring to sell the 4,000-square-foot house they built 15 years ago in Savage, they were emboldened by stories of home buyers lining up and sellers getting more than asking price. Four months and three price reductions after listing the house for $539,000, they’re still looking for a buyer and are baffled by the disconnection between the headlines and what’s happening on their quiet suburban street.”

“‘It’s a whole different ballgame in the $500,000 price range,’ Mary Roach said. ‘It’s been very frustrating.’”

“The scenario is particularly vexing for real estate agents who cater to upper-bracket sellers, who see the data and the headlines but feel like they’re missing out. And if an upper-bracket buyer doesn’t sense value, they’re apt to move on and build exactly what they want. ‘We’re fighting a huge battle in the upper-bracket market,’ said Meredith Howell of Coldwell Banker Burnet. ‘The market is very, very harsh, particularly when you’re competing against newer developments.’”

The Daily Times in New Mexico. “Despite a recent decrease in the number of properties in foreclosure proceedings in the city, Farmington’s foreclosure rate is higher than the national average, according to CoreLogic. The high rate of foreclosures in Farmington is something that Rita Gomez, a real estate agent at Coldwell Banker Cornerstone Realty, has noticed.”

“Gomez attributes the high local foreclosure rate to a decline in oil and gas production that has lead to layoffs. While real estate agents do not use foreclosures while doing market analysis for people interested in selling their homes, Gomez said the foreclosures could affect housing values. ‘It could be good for some people, maybe, but for the majority of the population, it’s probably bad,’ she said.”

“Gomez said the trend will likely continue until the area experiences an increase in employment. In another sign of the shaky local economy, the study shows Farmington’s mortgage delinquency rate has climbed to more than 4 percent.”

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-08-04 09:39:06

Mount Vernon, VA Housing Prices Tumble 20% YoY As Housing Correction Expands

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-08-04 09:41:34

Higland(St Paul), MN Housing Prices Tumble 10% YoY

Comment by Mike
2016-08-04 19:05:03

Hi Analyst,

I’m confused. You write that the prices tumbled 10% year over year. However, when I go to the link, it says they’re up 3.2%. What am I missing?

Comment by Big Mac
2016-08-04 19:20:21

Our good friend and blog contributor Karen made this. Read up.

Comment by Mike
2016-08-04 19:36:47

Ah, that nails it. Thanks, Mac!

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Comment by Question
2016-08-04 20:52:47

When I click on the link, where exactly on Zillow can I see this drop?

Comment by oxide
2016-08-05 05:08:39

Zillow’s default view shows their own “home value” made-up number, which is useless. Another view is “median list price.” This is rather useless, since list price depends on how the realtor is feeling at any one time. So, follow Karen’s chart to get to “median sales price,” which is really the only data you can count on. It’s literally the money shot.

That said, I have two observations on such charts:

1. The data is extremely erratic and noisy, which is an indication of a low number of sales, and makes for less reliable trending.

2. The median sales price is for all home types, big and small, condos and SFH. For example, if the sales mix trends toward smaller condos, then the median could show a price decrease even if SFH increase in price. So, it’s more accurate to look at the price per square foot. Highland’s $/sq ft has actually increased by 3.4%. SO the price increase could be simply be attributed to more condo sales in 2015.

As an extreme example, about a month ago I looked up these charts for an older small town. The median price AND price per square foot had increased. But the sample size was really small — 10-15 dwellings. From what I could tell, the overall value of existing housing had decreased a little bit, but the median sales price had increased due to the opening of ONE new condo complex, one. All it took to skew the data was 7 idiots buying a shiny new expensive condo that particular year.

Comment by Big Mac
2016-08-05 05:41:20


Are you suggesting there is no housing demand?

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-08-04 09:50:16

“SF, Oakland, And San Jose Rents All Went Down Last Month”

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-08-04 10:20:05


Melania Trump, the wife of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, denied on Thursday that she had ever broken immigration laws, in response to a Politico report that calls into question whether she committed visa fraud and worked without authorization during her early visits to the U.S.

Comment by Puggs
2016-08-04 10:50:58

Jay and Gloria.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-08-04 13:33:26

the ugly, stupid version of jay and gloria that is…

Comment by Jesus Navas Is My Lord Savior
2016-08-04 14:30:47

Must be blind to think Malaria is ugly.

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Comment by CalifoH20
2016-08-04 17:12:11

Looks like a man with squinty eyes and a good female body (for now) And she is an illegal.

Comment by Big Mac
2016-08-04 18:13:19

Right up your alley Lola.

Comment by not even a smidgen
2016-08-04 19:22:54

“Right up your alley Lola.”


Comment by CalifoH20
2016-08-04 20:43:00

is her head flat?

Comment by phony scandals
2016-08-04 13:57:05

That’s nothing, Hillary was on Fox News Sunday lying about lying.

Judge Napolitano: Clinton Lied Again To American Public About Her Emails

Randy DeSoto August 1, 2016 at 2:50pm

Fox News senior judicial analyst Judge Andrew Napolitano took Hillary Clinton to task on Monday for lying to the American public about her email server, yet again, in an interview over the weekend.

Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace played three clips to Clinton of her making different statements about her emails. First, in March 2015, she said there was no classified information on her email server. In July, she changed her story to say, no information was classified at the time it was sent or received. The next month, the former secretary of state modified her story further claiming no emails were “marked classified” at the time they were sent or received.

Wallace then turned to Clinton and pointed out that FBI Director James Comey, after a long investigation, found none of those statements that she told the American public were true.

“That’s not what I heard Director Comey say,” Clinton replied. “Director Comey said that my answers were truthful, and what I said is consistent with what I have told the American people. There were decisions discussed and made to classify retroactively certain of the emails.”

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-08-04 15:31:27

Must be nice to be a Comrade of Proven Worth who is able to retroactively void laws and rules you view as inconveniences.

Comment by azdude
2016-08-04 16:39:59

r u not entertained?

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Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2016-08-04 16:46:49

I’d like to see her long form birth certificate, if youknowwhatImeanandI thinkYoudo….

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-08-04 16:48:36

She’s the kind of illegal alien I’m just fine with. Hubba hubba…nice genes in nice jeans. Might help offset some of the dumbing down of the native population.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-08-05 02:24:31

Lock her up! Lock her up!

Comment by Puggs
2016-08-04 10:34:33

Poor, poor homeloaned Debt Donkey’s.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-08-04 10:50:06

I’m curious - when we “defend our freedoms” by launching regime change operations in the Middle East, do those freedoms still include our CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS like the First Amendment? Or does “freedom of expression” only apply to porn these days?

Comment by taxpayers
2016-08-04 10:55:33

vix 12.43 all clear
no worries
go wild

Comment by azdude
2016-08-04 12:40:32

market is boring as h@ll right now.

Comment by Jesus Navas Is My Lord Savior
2016-08-04 15:00:59

Thank god Bernie didn’t win.

Venezuela’s economic collapse is so bad, people are slaughtering and eating zoo animals.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-08-04 15:28:13

I can see a falling out between PETA and the DNC’s Comrades of Proven Worth once the Democrat’s collectivist kleptocracy reaches this stage.

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-08-05 13:55:52

People for the
Eating of

Is it that PETA that you’re talking about?

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-08-04 17:15:59

Why dont they just print more money? works for the rest of us.

got lean protein?

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-08-05 02:26:31

The economy is too small…

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-08-04 15:06:20

Housing A wants you to give to her cause.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-08-04 16:47:16

The Comrades of Proven Worth at the DNC are thrilled by the recent lifting of the ban on part-human, part-animal embryos, as this creates the possibility of a whole new category of humanoids - admittedly, not much different than the current Democrat base - who will be lifetime dependency voters. Forward, mutants!

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-08-04 17:11:00

Will Trump U be BK #7?

Will his wife be proven to be an illegal working in the USA?

too easy!!

Comment by junior_bastiat
2016-08-04 17:11:50

I was looking at getting historical inventory stats for some areas I’m interested in, turns out the website movoto is undercounting by orders of magnitude. What is the point of such a crappy website?

Maybe they don’t want to be accused of peddling fiction, lol. Jenga economy in a nation of lies.

Comment by CalifoH20
Comment by drumminj
2016-08-04 18:47:16

For those of you using the Joshua Tree Extension on Chrome, I’ve just pushed a new version, 3.0.2.

The update will cause you to lose your ‘read post’ history as it stores the data slightly differently, but will work as expected after taking the update.

The new version makes it easier to track new comments across multiple blog posts.

Comment by Big Mac
2016-08-04 19:15:38

Nice. Thank you.

Does it track IP addresses too?

Comment by drumminj
2016-08-04 19:47:06

Nope. That would be nice to be able to consolidate all of your aliases, but sadly I don’t have a mechanism for that yet!

Comment by Big Mac
2016-08-04 19:54:37

There’s one and only. Sorry to disappoint.

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Comment by aNYCdj
2016-08-04 19:05:24

Elmhurst Dairy, the city’s last milk plant, closing after nearly 100 years in business

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2016-08-04 21:36:39

They should of converted to an almond milk plant or a Greek yogurt plant. Shelf space in the dairy yogurt section is about 75% Greek yogurt now and almond milk shelf space is getting a large section.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2016-08-04 19:11:32

Seattle, WA Real Estate and Homes for Sale-9,279 Homes

Seattle, WA Real Estate and Homes, Price Reduced-2,822

30% of all Seattle sellers reduced their price at least once</i<

Comment by Mike
2016-08-04 19:32:53

I like what Vancouver did, but there’s something gnawing at me.

For deals that were under contract, but not closed, they didn’t grandfather these in.

So let’s say Joe Foreigner (Chinese or not) agreed to buy Sally Vancouver Resident’s house for CAD $1 million. Let’s also suppose that Joe put down $30K in earnest money. They agreed to terms on July 15th, but are now waiting on the bank, title, etc. The clock turns to August 2.

All of the sudden, Joe has to pay $1.15 million for the place. Or, if he wants to back out, he’s s.o.l $30K. I guess the bright side is that prices will likely drop and maybe in the end he’ll get more bang for his buck. But he’s still damaged by the cash loss.

Sally was going to unload at a good price. Now she’s likely stuck with a house that’s going to drop significantly. She might get $30K cash, but could also lose $100K or more in equity very soon. Not good.

Why not let this transaction run its course? The resident will be happy and the foreigner will overpay.

What do you guys think?

Comment by Big Mac
2016-08-04 19:37:48

Falling prices is a good thing. And there isn’t much anyone can do to prevent it.

Comment by CalifoH20
2016-08-04 20:44:17

Cheaper to us with fake Yuan than bomb us

Comment by spmk
2016-08-04 23:04:44

Life is about:

1. Minimize risk and avoid mistakes.

2. Maximize risk under certain temporary conditions.

3. Recovering from mistakes in honest ways.

4. Be honest in everything you do.

Comment by spmk
2016-08-04 23:20:35

You may kill me for saying, but it is true:

“When life looks like Easy St, there is danger at your door.”

- the Grateful Dead.

The reverse is also true.

Comment by spmk
2016-08-05 02:43:25

I could drag up so much, from the depths of the 60’s to now, all in between, how about:

Watch out you might get what you’re after
Burning down the house

Comment by Big Mac
2016-08-05 05:18:23

You might be better off considering a run down 60 year old house isn’t worth much anyways.

Comment by spmk
2016-08-05 02:50:14

I want to see it most of it burn, but I don’t want anybody hurt.

Nobody wants anybody hurt.

That’s not the point.

Comment by not even a smidgen
2016-08-05 04:31:40

“I want to see it most of it burn, but I don’t want anybody hurt.”

So if you meet me
Have some courtesy
Have some sympathy, and some taste
(Woo woo)
Use all your well-learned politesse
Or I’ll lay your soul to waste, mm yeah
(Woo woo, woo woo)

Pleased to meet you
Hope you guessed my name

Comment by Big Mac
2016-08-05 04:39:13

I have no sympathy for Lola

Comment by not even a smidgen
2016-08-05 04:47:00

Incredulous Obama on Trump’s ‘rigged’ election worries: ‘What does that mean?’

Christine Wang
13 Hours Ago

President Barack Obama seemed incredulous Thursday at the idea of a “rigged” general election, which was suggested by Donald Trump.

“Of course the elections will not be rigged,” Obama said. “What does that mean?”

Leaked DNC Emails Confirm Democrats Rigged Primary, Reveal Extensive Media Collusion

Jul 24, 2016 10:44 AM

There are three key findings to emerge from yesterday’s dump of leaked DNC emails released by Wikileaks:

There had been a plot designed to smear Bernie Sanders and to hand the Democratic nomination to Hillary on a silver platter

There has been repeated collusion between the DNC and the media

There has been questionable fundraising for both Hillary Clinton and the DNC - 186k -

Comment by not even a smidgen
2016-08-05 05:05:47

Hell he doesn’t need Congress to fight Zika, just load up a few cargo planes with wooden pallets of euros, Swiss francs, and other currencies.

Obama Tells Congress To ‘Do Its Job’ On Zika

08/04/2016 06:27 pm ET | Updated 12 hours ago

Michael McAuliff Senior Congressional Reporter
The Huffington Post

WASHINGTON ― Saying the Zika threat is “getting critical,” President Barack Obama called on Congress Thursday to go back to work and pass the funding he has sought since February to combat the disease now spreading in Florida.

Lawmakers failed to pass any funding to deal with the mosquito-borne disease before they went on their seven-week break last month. Since then, at least 15 Americans have gotten infected in the Miami area.

“Congress needs to do its job,” Obama said in a news conference at the Pentagon. “Fighting Zika costs money.”

Secret Ransom Payment Is More Evidence of the Enormous Fraud of the Iran Deal

by Fred Fleitz August 3, 2016 12:25 PM

According to the Journal article, the U.S. sent Iran wooden pallets of euros, Swiss francs, and other currencies because U.S. transactions with Iran in dollars are illegal under American law. Obama officials are asserting that the timing of the cash shipment to Iran was coincidental and that the negotiations to convince Iran to free the U.S. prisoners “were completely separate” from the nuclear talks. If this is true, why the secrecy surrounding the cash shipment to Iran? Why did Obama fail to disclose this shipment to the American people or Congress?

Read more at:

Comment by not even a smidgen
2016-08-05 05:49:43

Obama on Iran payment: ‘We do not pay ransom’

By Stephen Collinson, Elise Labott and Kevin Liptak, CNN

Updated 8:04 AM ET, Fri August 5, 2016

Washington (CNN)President Barack Obama on Thursday dismissed suggestions a $400 million payment to Iran amounted to a ransom paid in return for the release of American hostages.

Confirming the US offered the payment in cash, Obama nevertheless downplayed the delivery’s significance, saying it was not a “nefarious” deal.

Freed Iranian Hostage: Iranians Told Me They Were Waiting For Another Plane To Arrive Before Letting Us Go

by Ian Hanchett4 Aug 20161,320

On Thursday’s broadcast of the Fox Business Network’s “The Intelligence Report with Trish Regan,” Saeed Abedini, one of the four hostages released from Iran back in January, stated that on the night he was freed, his captors told him they were waiting on another plane to arrive before letting him go.

Abedini said, “I just remember the night that we’d been in a[n] airport, just take hours and hours there. And I asked one of the…police that was with us, that, why are you not letting us to go to the…plane? And he told me we are waiting for another plane, and if that plane take off, then we’re going to let you go.”

Comment by azdude
2016-08-05 05:11:44

… it has become common for managers to tell their owners to ignore certain expense items that are all too real. “Stock-based compensation” is the most egregious example. The very name says it all: “compensation.” If compensation isn’t an expense, what is it? And, if real and recurring expenses don’t belong in the calculation of earnings, where in the world do they belong?

Wall Street analysts often play their part in this charade, too, parroting the phony, compensation-ignoring “earnings” figures fed them by managements. Maybe the offending analysts don’t know any better. Or maybe they fear losing “access” to management. Or maybe they are cynical, telling themselves that since everyone else is playing the game, why shouldn’t they go along with it. Whatever their reasoning, these analysts are guilty of propagating misleading numbers that can deceive investors…. When CEOs or investment bankers tout pre-depreciation figures such as EBITDA as a valuation guide, watch their noses lengthen while they speak.

Comment by spmk
2016-08-05 05:32:07


I try to keep it going in my life, but I think I an failing.

Pleased to meet you too, Mr. not even a smidgen.

I would like to hear more.

Comment by spmk
2016-08-05 05:50:50

“not even a smidgen”

all you do is repost from other sites but you don’t provide your own thoughts.

It is best to have public constructive debates provided by Ben Jones right here. I’m as horrible as any other, but let’s go for it, I just don’t want to annoy the founder.

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