A Trend That Is Happening More Often
The American Statesman reports from Texas. “Average apartment rents in the Austin area increased in July for the seventh straight month, though the rate of increase from last year fell to a six-year low, according to Axiometrics. ‘Austin has been adding a lot of jobs, but also adding a lot of apartments,’ said Stephanie McCleskey, vice president of research for Axiometrics. ‘Though a lot of the new supply is being absorbed, the slowdown in construction we’re starting to see for 2017 would come as welcome relief.’”
“An estimated 10,173 new apartment units are expected to come to market this year — the busiest of the current apartment cycle — and another 5,906 are slated for completion next year, Axiometrics said.”
The San Francisco Examiner in California. “It wasn’t until San Francisco resident Gary McCoy stopped looking for an apartment to share with his husband that one became available in their price range. Earlier this month, after a ‘frustrating’ year and a half of searching for a home to call their own, the couple signed a lease for a rent-controlled studio with a full kitchen and bathroom in The City’s Civic Center neighborhood. The price? Less than $1,800 a month. ‘It’s still an uncomfortable amount of rent compared to what we’ve been used to … [but] to find a pretty large studio with full kitchen and full bathroom for less $1,800 blew us away,’ said McCoy.”
“Prior to finding the studio, McCoy said each apartment the couple viewed cost a minimum of $1,800 a month, ‘and that’s for the smallest studio that we actually looked at.’ ‘Rents have definitely come down,’ McCoy said.”
“Last month, friends of Planning Commission Vice President Dennis Richards sought to rent their two-bedroom top floor apartment next to Dolores Park for a year and asked $7,300 a month. There were no takers. His friends have since dropped the price twice, most recently to $6,800 a month. Richards — who conceded that price ’still seems high’ — estimated that if the home had been rented at this time last year, there would have been no need to reduce the rent.”
The Pagosa Daily Post in Colorado. “It has been an interesting summer for the real estate world in Pagosa Springs. Overall sales activity is up slightly as measured against the prior 12 months. For all property types (building lots, acreage, commercial, ranch, single family, condos, etc.) the average selling price was down 2.5% over the prior year. When you cross into the $500,000+ price ranges the level of supply significantly outpaces demand as shown below.”
“Listing Inventories: $200,000-$300,000: 67 Active Listings = 10 month supply. $300,000-$500,000: 90 Active Listings = 16 month supply. $500,000-$750,000: 53 Active Listings = 29 month supply. $750,000-$1,000,000: 35 Active Listings = 76 month supply. $1,000,000 plus: 49 Active Listings = 106 month supply.”
“The market in Southwest Colorado has been impacted energy prices. Pagosa Springs has always benefitted from our visitors and second home buyers from Texas and other nearby energy states. An increasing number of households with a significant portion of wealth and income tied to oil and gas are choosing to postpone plans for a second home or cabin in the mountains of southwest Colorado.”
From Chicago Now in Illinois. “If you read my last Chicago real estate market update you saw that July home sales came in well below last year’s numbers, which was a bit disconcerting. There is a segment of the housing market where inventory has been quietly building for more than 2 years: single family homes in higher end areas such as West Town, Lake View, North Center, Lincoln Square, and Uptown. I put together the graph below based upon an agglomeration of these community areas and the trend is rather striking. From a low of a 2.1 month supply in December 2013 home inventory has risen to a 6.5 month supply in July. Technically, realtors consider anything above a 5 month supply to be a buyer’s market.”
“What’s driving all this and why is it just happening in these areas and with just single family homes? For instance the inventory of single family homes remains very low in Logan Square at only a 2.3 month supply. Could it be all the new construction driving up inventory? Could it be upper tier homebuyers giving up on Chicago Public schools?”
From Mansion Global on New York. “The daughter of billionaire hedge funder Israel Englander has sold her Manhattan apartment at a loss — a trend that is happening more often across New York’s luxury market. Dr. Laura Englander Levin, a radiologist whose father is the founder of hedge fund Millennium Management and is reportedly worth $5 billion, has sold her condo at 960 Park Avenue, which had a $13.5 million asking price, well below the $15.5 million she paid for it in July 2014.”
“A total of 16 contracts were signed last week at $4 million and above, seven more than the previous week. The median asking price was $6.1 million, while the average discount from original ask to last asking price was 6%, and the average number of days on the market was 245.”
‘$200,000-$300,000: 67 Active Listings = 10 month supply…$1,000,000 plus: 49 Active Listings = 106 month supply’
Like the Indian guy said yesterday, they over estimated the number of homeless billionaires.
I see the same high inventory in most of the affluent areas of Denver.
The level of inventory for homes above $750,000 in Denver is astounding given how few buyers can pay those prices. The higher the prices the greater the problem.
I think that most of this inventory is from baby boomers who believe that their house has now reached “peak equity” and they are trying to cash out. Some people have even told me this.
The Denver Post consistently reports that inventory is low but they fail to report that the scarcity of inventory is at the lower end of the market and that the higher end has plenty of inventory.
Apartment vacancies continue to increase across Denver and of course most of the vacancy is at the higher end. Plenty of concessions are offered to move-in such as: no deposit, no fees, 1-2 months free rent, $500 referral fees, free parking, etc. Never in my life have I seen landlords rent an apartment without a tenant putting down some form of security deposit.
Reposting from this morning:
‘The three primary drivers of the economy are starting to head south: retail, housing, autos. I can smell the housing market slipping away now. I’ve been early on housing, like I was when the mid-2000’s Bubble 1.0 popped, but I was eventually very correct (I sold my dream house in November 2004).’
‘The housing market is beginning to crater. I draw on “hands on” data from the Denver area because I can get “boots on the ground” due diligence accomplished. Denver is considered somewhat of a demographic “bellweather” for economic trends as they unfold. I don’t care what the media propaganda is reporting, in Denver housing sales are rapidly slowing, inventory is rapidly building and prices are falling. I’ve witnessed two $2 million+ homes in my area reduce their offer price 14% and 20% respectively shortly after their initial listing.’
‘Ultra-high end resort areas are starting to get killed. Aspen is reporting that sales are down more than 42% in the first-half of 2016 vs. 2015: Aspen’s Sustained Nosedive. Same with Long Island’s Hamptons, where sales volume in East Hampton and Southampton plunged 53% and 48% respectively from a year ago.’
‘Once the high-end wets the bed, the rest of the market follows very reliably and obediently.’
‘My view is supported by the homes sales data for July reported by Redfin.com last week. According to Redfin, home sales (closings) fell 11% in July. Redfin of course concocts a ridiculous calculus to rationalize the decline, but that’s nothing more than a disconsolate effort to defer acceptance of the unpleasant but inevitable reality.’
‘Perhaps most shocking in Redin’s report is the extent to which the bottom fell out of what had been some of the hottest markets in the country. Year over year for July closings fell 46% in Vegas, 24% in Miami, 21% in Portland, 20-% in Oakland and 11% in Denver.’
‘I have a subscriber who is three decade-plus real estate professional in Denver who is sharing some great insider color on the market, something you will NEVER get from the National Association of Realtors: “You are spot-on the housing market. I think the flippers in Denver metro are driving the under $400,000 price to a frenzy and the over $500,000 in the burbs are dropping in price. Some of these flippers have 8-10 houses at the same time. A little jiggle and they will dump. Then the part time rental landlords follow in selling as the rental market gets tough.”
“I am selling a $309,000 condo and showing another buyer $300,000-$350,000 houses in the same part of Denver. Condos and houses of the same 1980’s age are not worth the same. Every time the condo and house of same square footage and age get the same price, the prices fall. Condos go down the farthest of anything.”
‘I believe the flippers who are facing getting “stuck” with their inventory will start to panic and look to unload their “investments.” Many of them are using debt to make their purchases. This of course will hasten the downturn in housing. This is exactly how the end of the big Housing Bubble 1.0 was triggered.’
“The three primary drivers of the economy are starting to head south: retail, housing, autos.”
Autos sales starting to head south? Haha.
Time for that plunge protection team to encourage and provide guarantees for the 120-month loan. Then the fed can buy the paper after their buddies on wall street create junk bonds from the dubious loans. ‘Merica.
Time to reinitiate Cash for Clunkers and Crapshacks?
I drove the loop from Salida to Gunnison to Montrose to Durango to Pagosa Springs to Del Norte to Salida last week, so many houses, ranches, agricultural land for sale… and not a buyer in sight.
I used to fish a lot in S east Colorado. What’s there to do in Pagosa Springs? If I had enough money for a million peso shack, why would I even be in that part of the state?
Only Pagosa native I’ve met was a tow truck driver in the summers and a liftie at Wolf Creek in the winters.
Tourism and ranching is about it there.
From Del Norte to Sagauche is the eastern edge of the San Luis Valley, allegedly the largest alpine valley in the world, irrigated for lettuce, alfalfa, et cetera.
only a dj can find a song that includes wolf creek pass and pagosa springs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHb_0Lhegig
That’s almost nine years…a full bubble cycle’s wort of $1+ million homes!
‘‘Though a lot of the new supply is being absorbed, the slowdown in construction we’re starting to see for 2017 would come as welcome relief.’
‘An estimated 10,173 new apartment units are expected to come to market this year — the busiest of the current apartment cycle — and another 5,906 are slated for completion next year’
Welcome relief? I thought there was a shortage of air boxes in Austin? Actually, I’ve posted numerous reports of rents being down there and it’s regularly mention in industry circles as already being overbuilt. Lots of speculators holding expensive downtown condos as rentals too.
1 to 100 of 2500
https://austin.craigslist.org/search/apa
1 to 100 of 2500
https://austin.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=1+month+free
MAKE AMERICA WORK AGAIN!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7B6i218dhhs
Reinstate workfare
For starters
that wont work any more, or the ACLU will claim its affecting union workers from making any OT………but forcing them to sit in class 15 -20 hours a week and learn English and math with homework, in exchange for their EBT card will. remember Ebonics has a stranglehold on these people and we need to break the chains of slavery.
Austin, TX Affordability Skyrockets; Housing Prices Down 19% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/austin-tx-williamson-county/market-trends/
Austin, TX Real Estate and Homes for Sale-6,228
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Austin_TX
Austin, TX Real Estate and Homes, Price Reduced-2,318
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Austin_TX/shw-pr
37% of all Austin sellers reduced their price at least once.
Wow - from yahoo…
Another reason(s). Expensive for utilities. Expensive for upkeep. Expensive for insurance. Expensive for taxes. Why pay for square footage you will never use?
—–
McMansions Define Ugly in a New Way: They’re a Bad Investment
August 23, 2016
In the late 1990s, Americans started referring to the new tract-built luxury homes popping up in suburbs across America as McMansions, a biting portmanteau implying that the new structures were mass-produced and ugly, with added, implied snark that their denizens, however wealthy, lacked the sophistication to tell filet mignon from a Big Mac.
Lately, these homes have come in for a fresh round of scorn, thanks to an anonymously authored blog that has been breaking down the genre’s design flaws in excruciating detail. Early posts lambasted builders for erecting garages bigger than the homes they’re attached to, a tendency toward dropping giant homes on tiny lots, plus shoddy construction and a mishmash of contrasting styles. (Gothic Tudor, anyone?)
The premium that buyers can expect to pay for a McMansion in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., declined by 84 percent from 2012 to 2016, according to data compiled by Trulia. In Las Vegas, the premium dropped by 46 percent and in Phoenix, by 42 percent.
Real estate agents don’t usually tag their listings #McMansion, so to compile the data, Trulia created a proxy, measuring the price appreciation of homes built from 2001 and 2007 that have 3,000 to 5,000 square feet. While there’s no single size designation, and plenty of McMansions were built outside that time window, those specifications capture homes built at the height of the trend.
McMansions cost more to build than your average starter ranch home does, and they will sell for more. But the return on investment has dropped like a stone. The additional cash that buyers should be willing to part with to get a McMansion fell in 85 of the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. For example, four years ago a typical McMansion in Fort Lauderdale was valued at $477,000, a 274 percent premium over all other homes in the area. This year, those McMansions are worth about $611,000, or 190 percent more than the rest the homes on the market.
One possibility is that builders have spent the last five years flooding housing markets with a new wave of large homes, bringing prices down. The median size of new homes dipped from 2007 through 2009, but then started climbing again—reaching a high of 2,488 square feet in the third quarter of last year. All those new, big homes may have watered down demand for older, big homes.
Along the same lines, builders have largely neglected the market for smaller, entry-level homes since the housing market collapsed nine years ago, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Trulia. That’s created excess demand for smaller, older abodes, leading those homes to appreciate faster.
Still, there’s another possibility: McMansion owners are losing out because the market considers their homes an ugly investment, too.
Like tryin’ to sell a used 5th wheel. >NO MARKET<
And also this:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/23/why-houses-in-america-are-getting-smaller.html
If it’s too expensive to build a house that people can buy, you start building smaller houses. That crazy logic will never work.
What didn’t work was adding a pile of square footage to the standar 2000sq ft and charging inflated prices for it.
Nice try.
Did you miss the Mountain View FB landlords from yesterday?
I must have. I’ll take a look.
Just read it…the awesome power of rent control.
I am hearing more and more of cities establishing rent control. I suppose we might as well add to the market distortion…sigh. Pre-1995 apartments are probably going down in value all over the State of CA about now. Who wants to be caught holding that hot potato?
They’ve got plenty of rent control in SF (and have for a long time)…how’s that working out to control rents? Rent control kept people from getting kicked out (but encouraged landlords to treat them and the building like sh*t in the meantime in the hopes that you would move). Rent control did nothing for rents if you are looking for an apartment.
What’s the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result?
Hehe… Nixon tried price controls.
I expanded on it in the comments: the problem was they overpaid. These are very small operators and they’ve already lost millions because their rosy picture got upset. The emerging picture of overbuilding is going to upset a lot of rosy scenarios. In NYC they can’t fill the retail. Why? They overpaid. In LA it’s the same because they overpaid. They overpaid because of expectations rooted in a story instead of the market. The story was constructed to justify the overpayment - this happens with manias. Prices are artificially high and boom, the illusion of scarcity is evaporated by the reality of oversupply. It can be seen above in SF and Austin. Houston is seeing rent control too; market enforced rent control. Then there is the matter of recession. It’s just a matter of time. All these luxury apartments built for a non-existent renter base will be foreclosed in huge numbers. There is a credit bust coming to commercial real estate. It’s going to ripple out across the globe.
The woman above who paid 15 million for an air box: why? Wouldn’t a 3 or 5 million air box have sufficed? No, she was going to sell for 20 or 30 millions. Instead, she’s holding the bag.
They’ve got plenty of rent control in SF (and have for a long time)…how’s that working out to control rents?
If it’s not working to control rents, they must not have plenty of it.
“The woman above who paid 15 million for an air box: why? Wouldn’t a 3 or 5 million air box have sufficed? No, she was going to sell for 20 or 30 millions. Instead, she’s holding the bag.”
The level of greed is astounding.
“If it’s not working to control rents, they must not have plenty of it.”
No, rent control doesn’t work to control MARKET rents. Rent control only controls rents for occupied units.
Rent control over time reduces incentives for people to move out of more expensive neighborhoods and into cheaper neighborhoods, thus effectively reducing market rate supply.
I’m not sure why you would invoke the word market and capitalize it. Rent is rent. High rent makes life difficult for people. If San Francisco has rent control and also has high and rising rents, then the rent control must only cover a small portion of all apartments.
Irrelevant.
I capitalized MARKET because rent control bifurcates the rent a landlord can negotiate into two categories:
1. What they can charge a tenant who is already an occupant. A rent restricted by rent control laws; and
2. Market rents–negotiated between a landlord and prospective tenant.
Rent control in SF covers about 72% of the rental units in SF, but I don’t think you understand how rent control works. Rent control does not limit the rents a landlord can charge a new tenant in a vacant unit.
Rent control limits how much a landlord can raise rents on current occupants. So, over time, there becomes a wide gap between what existing tenants are paying, and new tenants. In a normal market, tenants turnover…they change neighborhoods, they upsize, downsize, etc. In a rent controlled market, this turnover is reduced.
Over long periods of time, some apartments are effectively taken out of the market, since their occupants are paying staggeringly low rents, and it makes no sense for them to leave, even though the apartment may be too big for their current needs, or pretty far away from where they work.
The effect of this lower turnover, effectively lowers the amount of supply, which, drumroll please…raises market rents.
Said another way, if you abolished rent control tomorrow in SF, the rent on a vacant units would fall, and many long-time residents would either be paying meaningfully more than they were under the rent control regime, or they would leave town.
Rental rates are falling in Manhattan, the rent control capital of the world.
Nothing that a 50% price reduction can’t solve, McMansion or not… get slashing.
‘Laura Englander Levin…has sold her condo at 960 Park Avenue, which had a $13.5 million asking price, well below the $15.5 million she paid for it in July 2014′
You know Laura Englander, I would normally offer the consolation of saying it was cheaper than renting. But give the manner in which NYC landlords have been getting schlonged, maybe not.
“The Government’s numbers were “driven” by an unexplainable 18% surge in new home sales in the South. Yet, according to Redfin.com’s data for July, homes sales for July in the south’s biggest MSAs (population areas) cratered: Atlanta -12.9%, Dallas/Ft Worth -13.3%, Miami -24.2%, Orlando -16.1% (LINK). In other words, the Government’s metric conflicts drastically with observable reality.”
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-governments-new-home-sales-report-is-idiotic/
more green shoots! yes!
Cratering housing demand is yesterdays news.
‘the Government’s metric conflicts drastically with observable reality’
And just before an election.
Probably over 500 fed employees involved w “housing”
Or is it 5,000?
Wow, $1800/mo SF apartment downtown? Sheesh. How poor was the husband couple? I thought SF was systematically ridding its city of rent controlled apartments as random evictions were surging by landlords so they could get a slice of the 2012-2015 surge?
I knew people paying $1800/mo way out in the Sunset district/Oceanside.
Renting is a small fraction of the cost of buying and has been for years. Coupled with falling rents and we’ve got a bonafide genuine housing correction ramping up.
“Instead, this corporate fund-raising spree is being cycled right back into the stock market in the form of share buybacks, M&A deals and other financial engineering maneuvers. Since the financial crisis, in fact, upwards of $7 trillion has gone into stock buy backs and M&A deals.
This massive purchasing power, in turn, has driven the stock market to the perilous heights described in Chapter 12. It has effectively turned America’s C-suites into stock trading rooms . Our stock option crazed CEOs and boards are doing nothing less than de-equitizing their balance sheets and eating their seed-corn.”
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/bubbles-in-bond-land-a-central-bank-made-mania-part-2/
Haaa, just Zillowed some houses by me. One needs complete gutting and rework, the UHS says “Bring lots of cash to snag this gem!!”, yep lots of people jumping at a $200k 150 yr old home that needs lots of work and uncertainty as to if any of the 5 fireplaces work.
Another house has had a $20k reduction from 2 weeks ago. Asking for $350k, tax assessed at $264,000, last sold for $135k in 1997, yep that makes total sense.
2 additional homes have “Coming Soon” signs, because nothing says hawt market like announcing a 120 yr old home ahead of actual listing date.
GET IN NOW WHILE ITS HAWT.
And nothing says crushing.housing.losses. with housing prices falling in Boston and statewide.
Im sorry u missed all the free equity since 2009.
Data az_donk….. data….
Irvine, CA Housing Price Nosedive 16% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/irvine-ca-92620/home-values/
Pagosa Springs has always benefitted from our visitors and second home buyers from Texas and other nearby energy states. An increasing number of households with a significant portion of wealth and income tied to oil and gas are choosing to postpone plans for a second home or cabin in the mountains of southwest Colorado
What is the allure of a distant vacation home? In addition to all the expenses of a primary residence you have to hire someone to look after it for you since you won’t driving down every weekend.
A relative of mine wants to buy the house his father lived as a child in a small town in rural Hungary. His main reason is that he can buy it for $20K USD and that there is no property tax in Hungary.
The place is a wreck, and I’ll bet he could easily drop another 20K into it just to make semi palatable.
I reminded him that even if he spends all his vacation time there, the house will be empty the rest of the year and he will have to hire someone to take care of it while he’s away, and while Hungarian labor is dirt cheap, its still a cost. Plus there will be utilities year round.
But for some reason, he’s hell bent on buying this shack, which in my opinion has no resale value.
He could always rent it to the Hungarian government to house muslim “refugees”
Hungary doesn’t accept refugees.
Here is a video of the Hungarian PM telling EU leadership that they are irresponsible for bringing in all the refugees.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UT_MFvKhBsE&sns=em
“Hungarian PM Viktor Orban calls out the leftist leaders of Europe and said Europe had more than a refugee crisis.”
Merkel looks rather unhappy as she listens.
No property tax?!?!? That’s almost incentive enough to move there full time!
VAT (sales tax) is 27%. Income tax is a flat 16%
And the hot ch1cks.
Pagosa is on the wrong side of Wolf Creek Pass if you wanted a ski house/cabin and you live in Denver. South Fork is really, really sleepy in the wintertime. Wolf Creek Ski Area consistently gets the most snow of the Colorado ski resorts, but it’s only 1,600 vertical feet and most of that is double black expert terrain. Not exactly a family resort. There’s no lodge or village at the base, and cell phones don’t work there.
“…and cell phones don’t work there.”
Now that’s a problem.
I wonder how long gains stawks and homes can carry the economy?
Stopped by my bank in walmart and it was dead in there.
My car has 210k miles and the lower end is good for 500k easy. Timing belts are cheap on ebay.
That’s because the EBT cards are all “empty” and won’t be recharged until September.
Brookline, MA Housing Prices Crater 5% YoY On Surging Mortgage Defaults
http://www.movoto.com/brookline-ma/market-trends/
Seem like we have been climbing a wall of worry for like 8 years now.
Why are people still so negative?
Shrinking middle class
High asset values (which is terrible if you want reasonable long-term returns on investment)
Meaningfully increasing costs of education and healthcare, the two things that can dramatically improve or extend your life
Underfunded Pensions coming home to roost through squeezed municipal budgets (which impacts local services in a meaningful way)
High levels of unemployment (as measured by U-6)
Stagnant wages
Weak global growth
But hey, we can express our displeasure in 144 characters, and finish it off with a Kimoji. Joy.
You’re gonna have a rupture if you keep letting this stuff live in your head az_donk.
I am havn a great octoberfest from sierra nv brewery. A collaboration with mahrs brau of bamberg germany , est. 1670.
Things r looking up. I am looking at the equity and might need it again. Its addictive.
I’m sorry u missed out on the bull run, again
Ahh that it. You’re on the sauce again. Not good az_donk. Not good.
WAGE SLAVE
Data az_donk. Stick with the data.
San Francisco, CA Housing Prices Crater 12% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca-94121/home-values/
We probably had a discussion about the wisdom of building in well-known landslide zones: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/08/23/lawyers-for-landslide-victims-say-state-committed-fraud.html
It’s the Housing Bubble Blog, but this another significant issue bubbling out there - pensions. And that could most certainly have an effect on the economy.
Illinois governor’s office warns of crippling pension payment hike
Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:52pm EDT
Reuters
A Monday memo from a top Rauner aide said the Teachers’ Retirement System (TRS) board could decide at its meeting this week to lower the assumed investment return rate, a move that would automatically boost Illinois’ annual pension payment.
“If the (TRS) board were to approve a lower assumed rate of return taxpayers will be automatically and immediately on the hook for potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in higher taxes or reduced services,” Michael Mahoney, Rauner’s senior advisor for revenue and pensions, wrote to the governor’s chief of staff, Richard Goldberg.
When TRS lowered the investment return rate to 7.5 percent from 8 percent in 2014 the state’s pension payment increased by more than $200 million, according to the memo.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-illinois-pensions-idUSKCN10Y28Z
Gov workers get paid no matter
They just raise taxes
My state went to 7% est roi
The assumed future rate of return has no effect on what taxpayers have to pay.
Only when they pay it.
The high assumed rate of return — from the inflated high asset values of the 1990s stock market bubble — were cover for Generation Greed shifting costs to those coming after.
No, this is incorrect.
The assumed rate of return effects what payments government employees are required to pay into the system currently.
The assumed rate of return also impacts the public’s view of how well the pension is funded, effecting how willing they are to expand/increase the benefit for current and future employees.
If you assume a really low rate of return, then the actuarial math looks ugly, pushing contributions up, makes beneficial changes to pensioners less likely, and also reduces the probability that taxpayers foot a large bill in the future.
If you assume a really high rate of return, the contributions into the system fall, benefits are pushed higher, and taxpayers are put at greater risk.
Wu-Tang Clan — Cash Rules Everything Around Me (Staten Island, Brooklyn, Queens, 1993):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrsfJHLx5YA
I’m watching Trump’s rally live online along with the interviews outside the rally. Lots of black, latinos, and women. Soros has to be sweating big time, gonna need to airlift in a few million isis members before election day, get them registered and voting early and often.
Streaming comments have some comedy gold as well, lol!
One thing thats nice about an economy/country in the crapper, people really sharpen their humor. Maybe its because thats one of the few things left.
I’ve been traveling lately and got to see some TV, etc. It’s obvious the MSM is 24/7 against Trump. Even after the DNC gets caught running a “get the Jew” campaign at the dumpster fire of a convention, they go right back to the inevitable Clinton routine. People are onto it. They watch these videos and know the spin is on and are rejecting it.
Something powerful is going on. A whole bunch of people want change. And it’s not just here in the US. The Democrats could have run a change candidate. Instead they let the machine put up what is possibly the most flawed nominee ever.
Hillaryous is unelectable.
Hey, she can open a jar of pickles.
I bet they opened that jar of pickles to break the seal first.
I doubt she could open a jar of pickles that was under vacuum seal.
What, being able to open a jar of pickles isn’t proof of your ability to be President?
(I didn’t see it but heard it discussed. You’re exactly right - no pop, and she continued to twist it open, like a jar of PB. We can add opening jars to the list of things she hasn’t done in 30 years. The whole thing was stupid and is yet another example of how stupid they think we are.)
“the most flawed nominee ever.”
If Hillary ends up in the White House, that’s it for the US. As it is, I don’t know if even Trump and his team could turn it around, it looks like a gargantuan task, given the level of corruption in government. It’s way worse than I ever imagined. I was just reading the Epipen story on ZH.
You’d almost have to shut down the government, declare martial law and put massive, uncorrupted task forces in place with unusual authority to clean up various sectors.
One thing I learned from the Trump/Hannity town hall last night is the power of the judiciary at levels lower than the Supreme Court. Ordinary citizens who have lost members of their families to illegal immigrants have almost zero hope of seeing justice, due to the fact that these black-robed sickos do nothing for them and almost always side with the murderous illegals one way or another.
It’s Salon Dot Com, so go put a fresh Depend adult diaper on before reading:
“Donald Trump’s new effort to win black and brown voters is in keeping with that script. His recent insults about black voters and the Democratic Party are not new. Today’s Republicans, aided and abetted by their black conservative human mascots, routinely say that African-Americans are “uninformed,” “stuck on a Democratic plantation,” or “bought off” by “welfare and food stamps.” While the party elites may try to disown him, Trump is, once again, showing that he is the logical outcome of almost five decades of Republican policies and a Right-wing news entertainment disinformation media that has used white racism to win elections and feels great disdain towards black Americans.
http://www.salon.com/2016/08/23/insult-politics-donald-trump-thinks-he-can-appeal-to-black-voters-by-parroting-misconceptions-and-fallacies-about-them/
He may be a blowhard, but he isn’t entirely wrong.
Democrats say you’ve got it made
Cause a few lazy players on the inside get paid.
Shaft
They say you’ll get help
But the money all goes to themselves.
But Republicans won’t placate us
They just want to exterminate us.
Shaft
We ought to vote out all those mothers
Shut your mouth
But they’re giving us the shaft!
The point being that whereas the Republicans try to buy off their base and rob everyone else, including future generations, the Democrats basically serve a few special interests and pursue swing voters — while neglecting those they can afford to take for granted because they have no options (or will not consider them). Including Afro-Americans.
That is one of the worst things about what has happened to the Republican Party. The damage it has allowed the Democratic Party to do in the places where it is the majority, for lack of an acceptable opposition.
There’s a more basic issue. He doesn’t explain what changes he wants to implement that might improve the lives of black voters. So he’s appealing to black voters in the same way that he appeals to white voters. Vote for me and I’ll shake everything up. Everything in America will be different when I’m president because I’m an outsider, a change agent.
We’ve heard this before from other politicians and rarely does anything good come from it.
We’re in a Beyond Thunderdome situation.
Plan? There’s no plan!
Update for palmetto
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article97334827.html - - Cached - Similar pages
9 hours ago
Who in hell would chew the face off another person? This guy has to be a realtor.
Was he snorting bath salts?
Thanks, jeff. It just seems to get more and more bizarre. The garage chemical thing doesn’t make sense, though. I mean, maybe he did imbibe some chemicals in the garage, but he was hopped up before he even got there.
I’m still wondering about steroids or hypno.
LITTLE FEAT LYRICS
“Old Folks Boogie”
Back At the Home,
No Time Is Your Own,
Facillities There, They’re All Out On Loan
The Bank Forclose, and Your Bankruptcy Shows
And Your Credit Creeps to An All-time Low
So You Know, That You’re Over the Hill
When Your Mind Makes a Promise That Your Body Can’t Fill
Little Feat - Old Folk’s Boogie - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmC_OhP7V2w - 244k -
“The three primary drivers of the economy are starting to head south: retail, housing, autos.”
The three primary drivers of the economy: credit cards, mortgage loans, auto loans. How are student loans doing?
I recall trying to find a place for my savings a decade ago. I looked at a long term bond fund. It was stuffed with mortgage loans. So I knew I didn’t want that. Intermediate term? Auto loans. I knew I didn’t want that. Short term? Credit card receivables and rollover financing for financial companies. I knew I didn’t want that.
That isn’t real wealth backing those debts. It’s promises to be poor later in exchange for living rich now. You can say public debts are no different.
“$180 billion a month of additional stimulus is now required from the major central banks to keep the market afloat. Yet the returns continue to diminish.
What we have is a Red Queen’s Market. The Red Queen’s race refers to running fast just to stay in the same place. In a Red Queen’s Market, central banks must continually increase their level of stimulus, intervention, jawboning, etc. just to keep the markets in the same place.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-24/stock-market-2015-2016-ugly-chopfest-equally-ugly-megaphone
Broward home sales take heavy hit in July: report
Fewer distressed properties helped drag down total sales figures
August 23, 2016 03:00PM
http://therealdeal.com/miami/2016/08/23/broward-takes-heavy-home-sales-hit-during-july-report/
The Daily Data Dive: Not The Best Time In History To Invest In Real Estate, Part 1
by Lee Adler • August 23, 2016
According to Jeff Reeves at Marketwatch, this is the best time in history to invest in real estate. Having spent half my professional life in the real estate and real estate finance businesses, let’s just say I was “curious” as to how he reached that conclusion. So I wiped the chocolate milk off my face that I had just spit up through my nose, took a deep breath, and dove in.
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-daily-data-dive-not-the-best-time-in-history-to-invest-in-real-estate-part-1/?utm_source=ReviveOldPost&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ReviveOldPost
“Earnings in the spotlight on Wall Street, Yellen speech eyed”
WTF can she do?
Huma Abedin’s latest leaked e-mail while she was on the State Department’s payroll acting as a fixer for the Clinton Foundation while simultaneously handling access to the U.S. secretary of state.
“Who’ll give me a hundred thousand dollars?
One hundred thousand dollar bid, now two,
now two, will ya give me two?
Two hundred thousand dollar bid, now three,
now three hundred thousand, will ya give me three?
Two hundred thousand, two and a half, two-fifty,
How about two-fifty? fifty? fifty? fifty? I got it!
How about two sixty? sixty? sixty?
I’ve got two sixty, now seventy?
how about seventy? two hundred and seventy thousand?
Mrs. Clinton and Her Fixer
by The Editors August 23, 2016 10:32 AM
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/439258/hillary-clinton-huma-abedin-troubling-questions-influence-peddling-corruption
Lol, should Hillary make it to the WH, Huma will be the de-facto President. Let that sink in. Not unlike Valerie Jarrett is to Obama.
Daily Caller News Foundation
Taxpayer-Backed School Holds Lesson On How To ‘Stop White People’
Blake Neff
Reporter
5:58 PM 08/23/2016
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/08/23/taxpayer-backed-school-holds-lesson-on-how-to-stop-white-people/#ixzz4IGF2FF6Y