August 25, 2016

Realtors Say It’s Not Time To Panic

CBS 46 reports from Georgia. “Atlanta home prices are the highest in recent memory. According to the Atlanta REALTORS Association, Atlanta’s median home price jumped from $105,000 in 2012 to $250,000 today. With some properties seeing such quick gains in pricing, however, some real estate agents say Atlanta’s market can’t handle it. ‘In 12 to 18 months I think that we will see a correction in prices,’ Said Kris Kolarich of Atlanta Intown Real Estate Services. Kolarich believes Atlanta’s housing bubble is about to burst. ‘I don’t see how you can sell houses in certain zip codes for $250,000 and $275,000 without commerce still, in heavy crime areas and without good schools,’ he said.”

The Miami Herald in Florida. “Close your eyes if you don’t like bad news. The volume of existing home sales in Miami-Dade County fell 20.8 percent in July compared to July 2015, according to a monthly report released Wednesday by the Miami Association of Realtors. Three main factors are conspiring to slow down Miami’s real estate market: Not enough affordable housing for locals. A lack of foreclosure inventory available for investors to snap up. And a major drop-off in the number of foreign buyers, who’ve been burned by the strong dollar.”

“‘When you see a 20 percent drop, you start thinking not just housing recession but housing depression,’ said Jack McCabe, a South Florida real estate analyst.”

“Realtors say it’s not time to panic. The pace of sales set in 2013, 2014 and 2015 simply wasn’t sustainable, said Ron Shuffield, president and CEO of EWM Realty International. ‘A lot of the decline we’re seeing is in the million-dollar market and in foreclosures,’ Shuffield said. ‘The middle of the market is still strong.’”

“The new report shows Miami-Dade’s condo market suffering more than single-family homes. Condo resales dipped to 1,104 in July, down 24.7 percent year over year, the Realtors’ group found. Existing condos are competing with a glut of luxury offerings, making older units a tougher sell. Single-family resales fell to 1,128 in July, a 16.4 percent decline from last year.”

Realtor.com on Texas. “This enormous hunk of partly built real estate outside of Houston, which is on the market for $3.6 million, has been called ‘haunted,’ a ‘disaster,’ and a ‘mystery.’ But here’s what this unfinished, sprawling Texas property really is: a multimillion-dollar fixer-upper.”

“The massive home, abandoned and incomplete, has attracted media attention over the years. Located in the small town of Manvel, TX, the structure started in the early 2000s as a custom build for the original owners, a doctor and his wife, recounts Jim Youngblood, the current homeowner. ‘They got 70% done, and for some reason his wife thought the house was too big.’”

“Her rationale isn’t too hard to understand. According to Youngblood, the home was planned as a 63,890-square-foot facility on 10 acres and would include living quarters, the doctor’s medical practice, and a setting for housing foster children. Youngblood, an investor, decided to go in on the place with family members in 2008. He now owns it through foreclosure. Since then, he has tried to sell it unsuccessfully.”

“‘I’ve had it under contract dozens of times. For some reason, these people can’t get financing.’ He’s not the first person to have big dreams for the half-built home. Other potential buyers have appreciated the enormous 30,000-square-foot room in the back for an event center with a bed-and-breakfast. Or as an assisted-living facility with space for 70 rooms. Despite interest regularly rolling in, no one’s closed on it yet. ‘Everybody has these grand ideas, but they don’t have any money,’ Youngblood laments.”




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84 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-08-25 07:11:49

‘Atlanta REALTORS Association’

So now we are expected to capitalize the entire word? What’s next, exclamation points?

REALTORS!!!

Is three enough?

‘Atlanta’s median home price jumped from $105,000 in 2012 to $250,000 today…‘I don’t see how you can sell houses in certain zip codes for $250,000 and $275,000 without commerce still, in heavy crime areas and without good schools’

Nothing to see here Janet, Mel. As one poster said, these loans will probably be OK.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-08-25 08:21:57

‘I don’t see how you can sell houses in certain zip codes for $250,000 and $275,000 without commerce still, in heavy crime areas and without good schools,’

Do federally-guaranteed subprime mortgages* concentrated in high-crime, low-commerce areas without good schools possibly have a role?

* By subprime, I mean low-down payment, low-FICO score loans that a private lender would not touch without the federal guarantee, not Oxide’s personal definition of subprime.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-08-25 08:33:38

‘$250,000 and $275,000 without commerce still, in heavy crime areas and without good schools’

Don’t have much going for them, huh? Atlanta was swarming with hedge fund money buying thousands of foreclosures a few years ago, BTW, maybe the highest concentration of such buyers in any US market.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-08-25 20:20:50

And don’t forget about the ski resort in former poster Eddie’s Atlanta back yard!

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Comment by rms
2016-08-25 21:37:40

That was in the Spokane area, IIRC.

 
 
 
 
Comment by rms
2016-08-25 10:11:56

Working folks drive an hour or so outside Atlanta to get to a safe family neighborhood.

 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-08-25 07:16:17

codes for $250,000 and $275,000 without commerce still, in heavy crime areas and without good schools,’ he said.”

if HA is black he can park his truck here

$50 a sq ft

Comment by Mr. Beaver
2016-08-25 09:25:59

Maybe with a HELOC someone can finally give him his asking price for that 10 yr old truck he loves.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-08-25 11:53:08

I love that analogy if his, because of all the fail it contains. While it is true for trucks which have never appreciated, house prices do rise, especially during bubbly times.

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2016-08-25 12:34:29

Vehicle prices rise, too, even used vehicles. A 2005 Ram diesel with less than 20k miles was $30,000 in 2011. It’s $40k now.

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Comment by In Colorado
2016-08-25 17:00:10

Well there you go! Trucks and houses, contrary to what our favorite poster says, do appreciate!

 
Comment by redmondjp
2016-08-25 21:46:27

No, you fail to understand. CERTAIN older diesel trucks, ones with far less problematic emissions systems than the new trucks have, appreciate, as people have had nightmares with the late-model diesel engines and thus are shopping for the older models still in good condition.

You could have made a killing on 1990s Dodge 4×4 Cummins 12V diesel engine-powered pickups (1993-1998.5) as those have easily doubled in price over the past few years - used to see them for under $10K and now you can find them in the $15-20K range for nice, under 200K-mile ones.

The exact same thing is true for vehicles with the 1995-2003 Ford Powerstroke 7.3l diesel engine. Look at the insane used prices for a 7.3l diesel Excursion (vs. buying a gas-powered one for HALF the cost or less).

I really want a Cummins 12V in my 1990 F350. But I don’t want to spend $10K to put one in. I can buy a lot of gas for my 460 engine for $10K.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-08-25 07:19:44

Thought I put this here.

‘Mr. Brexit’ Nigel Farage Speaks at Donald Trump Rally in Jackson, MS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oj4K9fr_WgY - 249k - Cached - Similar pages
13 hours ago

Comment by Panda Triste
2016-08-25 07:31:14

Hillary’s a bigot.

Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 07:40:39

she is, but that dog won’t hunt.

For some reason, some prominent white men seem to have some sort of god complex about being the great white savior of brown people.

Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 08:10:01

Which is, in itself, the soft bigotry of lowered expectations.

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Comment by Mr. Beaver
2016-08-25 14:23:45

Who is Jill? http://www.jill2016.com/ She should be able to debate the other two losers. “What do we have to lose?” as Trump says now.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 07:31:51

Nigel was great.

Unfortunately, Trump weaseled on illegal immigration big time in the second part of his Austin town hall with Sean Hannity. Epic fail, but I suppose we knew it was coming.

Kellyanne Conway does great work for Ted Cruz, though.

Comment by Jesus Navas is my Lord Savior
2016-08-25 09:18:27

No wall now?

Comment by Panda Triste
2016-08-25 09:22:55

I’m shocked, SHOCKED.

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Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2016-08-26 10:22:43

It’s almost as if he’s telling different groups of people what they want to hear and has no agenda of his own other than “Look at me look at me me me meeeeeeeee.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 10:17:05

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-immigration-stance-allies-squirm-227397

“But this week, he has pulled back, saying he’s open to “softening” immigration laws and that he’d like to “work with” non-criminal undocumented immigrants — a plan that sounds strikingly similar to those from Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush.
Story Continued Below

“No citizenship. Let me go a step further — they’ll pay back-taxes, they have to pay taxes, there’s no amnesty, as such, there’s no amnesty, but we work with them,” Trump said in an interview that aired Wednesday night, setting off another round of head-scratching over where he stands.

“Now, everybody agrees we get the bad ones out. But when I go through and I meet thousands and thousands of people on this subject, and I’ve had very strong people come up to me, really great, great people come up to me, and they’ve said, ‘Mr. Trump, I love you, but to take a person who’s been here for 15 or 20 years and throw them and their family out, it’s so tough, Mr. Trump,’ I have it all the time. It’s a very, very hard thing,” he said.

As the author noted, sounds much like JEB! and Marco. When they start talking about “bad guys” vs. “good guys” who have been here and worred harr, paying back taxes, etc. that’s ball game.

anyway, as demonstrated by Hillary, laws are a joke. There is no US anymore, just a shiddy little taxing authority.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-08-25 11:16:28

Jeebus, is it any wonder the establishment runs over the people for decades, murdering millions and plundering every step of the way. Can’t you see this is a Jedi mind trick by the media? “Oh, the non-establishment candidate changed his mind in one insignificant, maybe not at all way! He’s not pure!!” They did the same thing with Ron Paul.

Meanwhile the establishment candidates can have the blood of hundreds of thousands of children on their hands, bank accounts overflowing with crooked money and it’s crickets. They can lie, cheat, slander, mislead and we are told “everybody does it”.

All the PTB focus on is Keep. The. Power. I don’t care if this guy turns out to be Pancho’s son. I want to see the neocons swept out of Washington. I want the killing to stop. If this election was between Sanders and Bush, I’d support Sanders. Why? Because socialist warts and all, there’d be a chance. Just a chance, we could get off this slaughtering, globalist merry go round. It might not work out, but we know what we’ll all get if we fail. And frankly, I never thought we’d even get this slim chance in my lifetime. And I for one ain’t gonna miss the opportunity for any reason.

 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-08-25 11:21:53

Who is a non-establishment candidate in this 2016 election? I don’t see any.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-08-25 11:33:05

The one with all the establishment enemies. There’s more than one anti-establishment candidate, I’m sure. But only one with a chance of winning.

 
Comment by HomerSimpsonRocks
2016-08-25 11:37:18

Very well stated Ben.

 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-08-25 11:49:15

“The one with all the establishment enemies.”

I don’t know which one that is.

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 11:55:58

“Can’t you see this is a Jedi mind trick by the media?”

I saw the town hall, Ben. It was Trump’s Jedi mind trick, all on his own, no help from the media. It wasn’t so much what he said, but the nasty little trick he pulled on one of his supporters, where he said he was using a voice vote from the audience as a “poll”. “what do you think, folks, should we throw them out or let them stay?” By deliberate use of the term “throw them out” vs “deport them”, it was meant to silence dissent, which is an old PTB trick.

One guy had the courage to stand up to that in a public forum, to which Trump’s reply was a dismissive “I get it”. Even more interesting was his timing of this most recent pivot, holding off until just after Coulter’s book comes out.

I’ve actually been watching closely his treatment of supporters as he pivots to the “establishment”, ever since San Jose. I’ve tried to rationalize every single one of these under the bus incidents, even justifying his economic “advisory” board as being ok if it is being overseen by Stephen Miller, who is the senior policy advisor and a true believer.

I, too, want to see the neocons swept out of Washington and I was delighted and grateful when he swept most of them out of the Republican party. The endorsements of Rubio, McCain, Ayotte and Ryan showed me that he wasn’t going to finish the job. He’s said no more nation building. What’s next? “OK, maybe some forces in Iraq, we have to get the oil.” Or some such thing.

I’d never vote for Hillary. At this point it looks like I’m going to sit this election out and prepare for the worst.

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 12:15:46

Anyway it looks more as if Washington itself is going to be swept out from under the neocons, the way things are going in the Middle East.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-25/did-turkish-president-erdogan-just-use-false-flag-justify-invading-syria

heckuva job, Kerry!

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2016-08-25 12:24:53

weasled…..maybe some affirmative action is necessary…..no more Muslims but let all the Christians and gays in until the numbers are even

 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-08-25 12:29:20

“t looks more as if Washington itself is going to be swept out from under the neocons, the way things are going in the Middle East.”

News alert:

Hillary Clinton IS a neo con. She likes war and imperialism does she not?

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 13:21:07

yes. And I was being literal, not figurative. As in Washington getting destroyed, courtesy of its own neocon/neoliberal policies and actions. You can’t possibly do what they do and not have blowback. It won’t end with 9/11.

Watch the group that triangulates between parties. They’re an interesting bunch. It’s the war party.

 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-08-25 13:35:37

“Watch the group that triangulates between parties. They’re an interesting bunch. It’s the war party.”

Welcome back to furious skepticism over politicians all politicians.

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 14:26:29

The group that triangulates between parties are not politicians. They are financiers, captains of military industries, media moguls, think tank members, etc.

Why, even Jeff Bezos is now a member of the war party, having had his meeting with the Pentagon. He’s a real whiz at logistics and has some pretty tasty warehouse real estate all over the place. And he’s got his Washington rag to gin up some “military actions”.

The thing is, though, all these “smartest guys in the room” never count on unforeseen events that can seriously mess with their little scenarios. As parasites, they always end up killing the host and screwing it up. Always.

“No one could have seen it coming.”

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 14:29:30

“Watch the group that triangulates between parties”

One saving grace is that these folks always, sooner or later, start stabbing each other in the back and falling out. Which is why the planet is still here, and probably will be for a while, nukes notwithstanding.

 
Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2016-08-25 16:20:07

Quoting yourself, then responding to it, is gross.

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 16:58:22

Not recognizing that someone is adding to and clarifying an earlier statement they made is evidence of a feeble mind. Or lack of sleep, which sometimes happens to me.

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 17:03:06

LOL, and what’s even grosser is watching Hillary Clinton freak out over Alex Jones. Too funny. If he’s a “conspiracy theorist”, why’s she giving him so much credence? Alex Jones just went mainstream!

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 17:49:22

And the really weird thing is (by the way, GR, I’m just adding here, not responding, to my own post) is that Hillary Klanton is the only candidate I know of to have a kissy face photo op with Klan member Robert Byrd.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/25/hillary-clinton-friend-mentor-robert-byrd-kkk/

And here’s another interesting factoid: when I did a google search for “Hillary Clinton Robert Byrd”, there was no auto-prompt for it from google, instead a bunch of other Hillary Clinton- Robert ?” prompts.

Conspiracy?

 
Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2016-08-26 10:26:28

The lizard people have invaded google!

 
 
 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-08-25 11:01:37

Palmy wrote

“Unfortunately, Trump weaseled on illegal immigration big time in the second part of his Austin town hall with Sean Hannity.”

And here I am eating popcorn…

Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 11:12:16

“And here I am eating popcorn…”

With your pecker in a cold wallet.

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Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-08-25 11:37:00

What we’ve been saying all along. Trump has throughout his campaign purposely been hating on as many groups as possible to get the Jerry Springer crowd riled up and to dump Jeb and Ted and Marco. Once he bagged the nomination he’s gone into the mode of becoming more and more like Hillary Clinton, a very close friend of his who he donated to for years for her campaigns.

This has been the design and the only way to elect Hillary is by making sure she has an opponent that most voter groups hate.

Some here have been laughing all along.

Where is Neil? And his popcorn?

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-08-25 11:52:35

‘This has been the design’

That’s your opinion, and I’ve got mine. The other day a poster said he/she had never voted for a presidential candidate that won. I hadn’t thought about it before, but neither have I. This is one election cycle when I’m willing to skip my protest vote and give it a roll.

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 12:03:44

“to dump Jeb and Ted and Marco. Once he bagged the nomination he’s gone into the mode of becoming more and more like Hillary Clinton,”

No, not like Hillary Clinton, that’s not even possible. More like Jeb and Ted and Marco.

He wants to “defeat ISIS”. That’ll give him plenty of reason to go wherever they are. “But we’re gonna let the good Muslims come in, folks, I have many Muslim friends!”

Fukit. Let Hillary be the one to ring down the curtain on the US. It’s appropriate. The idea will rise again, on another land mass, maybe Russia. Maybe even another planet. Hopefully assisted by people who studied the pitfalls and the people that put them there and can forestall them from taking hold and ruining another effort.

 
 
 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2016-08-25 12:18:58

what your opinion of this 14 year old kid……seriously

https://www.facebook.com/TheCJPearson/

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-08-25 07:38:07

I was reading some comments on what the Federal Reserve won’t do. I should do a separate post on this but don’t have time, so let’s look at what is happening in this low rate environment:

‘Retail may be nearing the top, but we’re not coming down soon, many of our panelists said during our Retail & Restaurant Roundup last week. Franklin Street’s Monetha Cobb says rents are near a top on what the typical retail tenant can afford.’

“I feel momentum picking up,” says Loudermilk Cos’ Robin Loudermilk. Robin also says land prices are still high, making new developments difficult to pencil out. In fact, if you haven’t tied up land for development, he predicts it’s too late since sellers still have “stars in their eyes” when it comes to pricing their properties. “I think we’ll have an economic rollback,” he says, “but I think there’s still a runway on some of the land prices.”

‘Restaurants are still a darling tenant for many retail developers. Halpern Enterprises’ Jack Halpern highlighted his redevelopment in Smyrna, the 48-acre Shops at Belmont project. The development, which will include medical office and retail, will feature a majority of local restaurants. “Over half the square footage in that project is devoted to restaurants,” Jack says, adding they’re all locally run operations. “We take chances with people whose credit might not pass muster with larger retail owners.”

Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 07:42:39

“I feel momentum picking up,”

I do, too. The sort of momentum that a rock picks up going downhill.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-08-25 07:44:03

‘Commercial developers have been busy in 2016. Construction starts saw a hearty boost this year, fueled by multifamily, office and lodging sectors. But analysts expect rates of new construction to taper off through 2020.’

‘Cincinnati-based construction data firm ConstructConnect, formerly CMD Group, meanwhile tabulated year-over-year growth of 8.1 percent across all commercial property types. Low interest rates here and abroad, coupled with softened global economic conditions, mean foreign investors are increasingly looking to invest in new construction projects in the United States.’

“Among the effects of this capital influx are extremely low cap rates associated with multiple product types, including office, multifamily and lodging. With the price of commercial real estate having been bid higher, construction activity has been triggered,” says Anbir Basu, chief economist for Associated Builders & Contractors, Inc., a national construction industry trade association.’

‘For many developers in this cycle, high-end office construction has been the name of the game. “There is a growing gap between the most successful businesses and everyone else. The most successful businesses are targeting class-A+ and class-A buildings, including for purposes of recruitment. Correspondingly, in select markets, we are observing significant new construction of office space despite elevated vacancy rates,” Basu says.’

‘Meanwhile, multifamily construction doesn’t appear to be abating either, in spite of significant levels of new supply already coming on the market. Through the end of this year, approximately 400,000 multifamily units are expected to be delivered, representing construction growth of about 1.0 to 1.5 percent, according to Tiina Siilaberg, vice president-senior analyst at Moody’s. Next year, Siilaberg says multifamily developers will add another 400,000 units.’

‘In order to deliver returns high enough for banks to feel comfortable lending money in this restrained financing environment, developers of multifamily properties must concentrate on luxury properties with high rents. The higher cost of construction labor is another variable developers must account for in their pro forma. Thus most new multifamily development built over the past year has fallen into the luxury bucket.’

‘As multifamily construction has picked up this year, so too has industrial, a trend brought forward by Nordby. “There is an almost direct correlation between multifamily construction and light industrial demand nationally.” Some very obvious examples include Denver, Orange County, Calif. and Inland Empire, he says.’

‘One area of significant growth has been in the light industrial sub-sector. For this property type, Nordby says, “construction went from near-zero three years ago to 18 million sq. ft. nationally this year.”

‘Lodging construction is also up. There are approximately 103,000 hotel rooms under construction in the United States. Lodging-related construction spending is up 16 percent on a year-over-year basis, Basu says.’

‘The healthcare industry has been another bright spot for developers, with hospital construction up. The seniors housing sector, on the other hand, is now treading into oversupply territory. “Healthcare facility construction is suddenly taking off this year. In 2010-14, with uncertainty over the Affordable Care Act, nothing happened. Hospital construction is now improving, as is construction of seniors care facilities,” Basu says. “But we got a bit ahead of ourselves with seniors housing. Baby boomers won’t need that level of care until they are in their 80s.”

“2017 is poised to be a transitional year. The 2018-19 construction outlook looks murky. Economic dynamics will not be as they have been,” Basu says. “Price adjustments over the next few years will likely translate into diminished construction.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-08-25 07:49:03

‘Low interest rates here and abroad, coupled with softened global economic conditions, mean foreign investors are increasingly looking to invest in new construction projects in the United States.’

“Among the effects of this capital influx are extremely low cap rates associated with multiple product types, including office, multifamily and lodging. With the price of commercial real estate having been bid higher, construction activity has been triggered,”

Note the effect of low rates and money chasing yield. These guys see the saturation and are charging ahead because they’ve got “stars in their eyes.” Taking marginal deals on: “We take chances with people whose credit might not pass muster with larger retail owners.”

They are overbuilding everything: retail, industrial, housing. And they are mis-building; high end office, apartments.

‘For many developers in this cycle, high-end office construction has been the name of the game. “The most successful businesses are targeting class-A+ and class-A buildings, including for purposes of recruitment. ..”we are observing significant new construction of office space despite elevated vacancy rates”

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-08-25 07:51:29

‘multifamily construction doesn’t appear to be abating either, in spite of significant levels of new supply already coming on the market…In order to deliver returns high enough for banks to feel comfortable lending money in this restrained financing environment, developers of multifamily properties must concentrate on luxury properties with high rents.’

Notice what the consumer needs isn’t mentioned. Returns high enough for lenders to feel “comfortable” are setting the table. This is a classic commercial real estate bust unfolding right in front of us, and central bank policy is at the root of it.

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Comment by 2banana
2016-08-25 07:59:24

War on savers

People putting miney in high risk investments to get any kind of yield

Destruction of of pensions

Companies use cheap money to buy back their own stock instead of real investments

Etc.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-08-25 08:14:18

‘Uber Loses at Least $1.2 Billion in First Half of 2016′

‘On Friday, Gupta told investors that Uber’s losses mounted in the second quarter. Even in the U.S., where Uber had turned a profit during its first quarter, the company was once again losing money.’

‘In the first quarter of this year, Uber lost about $520 million before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, according to people familiar with the matter. In the second quarter the losses significantly exceeded $750 million, including a roughly $100 million shortfall in the U.S., those people said. That means Uber’s losses in the first half of 2016 totaled at least $1.27 billion.’

‘Subsidies for Uber’s drivers are responsible for the majority of the company’s losses globally, Gupta told investors, according to people familiar with the matter.’

“You won’t find too many technology companies that could lose this much money, this quickly,” said Aswath Damodaran, a business professor at New York University who has written skeptically of Uber’s astronomical valuation on his blog. “For a private business to raise as much capital as Uber has been able to is unprecedented.”

And note the unmentioned dry cleaner effect of all the other taxi companies earning less because this black hole is sucking up their customers.

Comment by Jesus Navas is my Lord Savior
2016-08-25 09:10:25

They lose money in every ride but make up in volume?

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Comment by Jesus Navas is my Lord Savior
2016-08-25 09:12:01

And Uber is not cheap either.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2016-08-25 11:05:49

“The second quarter of 2016, which ended in June, could represent a nadir for Uber. The company’s losses will likely fall. In July, it cut a deal with its largest global competitor, Chinese ride-hailing behemoth Didi Chuxing, washing its hands of its massive losses in that country. Didi gave Uber a 17.5 percent stake in its business and a $1 billion investment in exchange for Uber’s retreat. Uber lost at least $2 billion in two years in China, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg in July. Uber won’t see any losses from China on its balance sheet after August, the company said on Friday’s investor call.”

“Bookings grew tremendously from the first quarter of this year to the second, from above $3.8 billion to more than $5 billion. Net revenue, under generally accepted accounting principles, grew about 18 percent, from about $960 million in the first quarter to about $1.1 billion in the second.”

“Uber has about $8 billion in the bank and will soon receive $1 billion in cash from Didi, according to a person familiar with the matter. Uber also has access to a $2 billion credit line and a $1.2 billion loan.”

________________

So, in summary, they are losing money hand over fist, but just shed a large part of their business where they were losing $1B per year, and are growing revenues by ~20% per quarter. They have a model that can show profitability, and have $7.5B of cash (net of debt), which, after shedding China gives them 5+ years of runway–assuming their losses stay constant despite significant revenue growth.

I’m not saying I’m a buyer at a $60B valuation, but I think there are lots of people out there that wish they had a piece of this business at the price paid by the first VCs in the door.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-08-25 20:22:22

How does a company lose $1.2 billion in six months? Especially a company that has barely made any money, ever, to begin with?

Sounds kind of crazy…

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Comment by redmondjp
2016-08-25 21:51:00

They are paying the driver subsidies, since the drivers can’t make enough money from taking fares. As our country spirals downward and more and more people get desperate, they will likely be able to dial back on the kickbacks as drivers will be fighting each other to make a dollar.

All part of the Global Race To The Bottom . . .

Forward!

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2016-08-26 09:18:12

I wonder how the subsidies work…limited time to get the driver started? How long do the subsidies work, etc.

If they are limited in time, it’s a lot like “buying” your magazine subscribers. Up front cost, and then long-term cash flow stream.

Of course, if they subsidize forever, then it’s just a money loser forever.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-08-25 09:09:56

When in doubt, double down and drown yourself in debt.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Business
Big Oil Companies Binge on Debt
Exxon, Shell, BP and Chevron have combined debt of $184 billion amid two-year slump

 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-08-25 07:39:09

“Realtors say it’s not time to panic.

First thought on reading this line: when your stock broker says it’s not time to panic, you’re already _late_ to the panic party.

Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 07:52:23

+1.

Comment by goedeck
2016-08-25 13:07:45

Cue Kevin Bacon ROTC.

 
 
 
Comment by Puggs
2016-08-25 09:05:01

‘Everybody has these grand ideas, but they don’t have any money,’ Youngblood laments.”

Sounds like today’s internet sensation VC craze.

Comment by Mr. Beaver
2016-08-25 09:28:37

Uber only lost $1.2 bill in first half of the year. Uber valuation is $62 Bill. Not easy to lose billions, I guess.

Comment by Jesus Navas is my Lord Savior
2016-08-25 09:50:28

How much Yellon have to print for them to make money?

 
Comment by Puggs
2016-08-25 09:50:46

Valuation and reality, nary the two shall ever meet.

 
 
 
Comment by Puggs
2016-08-25 09:55:14

MT Pockets of the USA.

Comment by palmetto
2016-08-25 10:44:29

yah, that was the plan. We’ll look like Brazil very shortly here.

When the end comes, it always seems like it happened fast, but we’ve been on this downward slide since LBJ. Probably since Woody Wilson.

 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2016-08-25 11:27:03

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-23/the-nation-s-first-soda-tax-is-working-can-its-success-last

Why do those on the left use taxes alter behavior on items that are important to them, but don’t seem to understand (or choose not to understand) that increasing taxes elsewhere also alters behavior?

Comment by Panda Triste
2016-08-25 16:18:09

Are you referring to your marginal 56% tax rate?

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-08-26 09:21:31

The last paycheck showed 52% deducted, but yes, I’m referring to the belief that altering income tax rates doesn’t alter work/employment behavior, and the belief that altering investment tax rates doesn’t alter investment behavior.

 
 
 
Comment by Allan
2016-08-25 11:58:52

Excuse me? They keep telling me this isn’t a bubble. What am I not getting here? Isn’t this a repeat of 2005-2008? Oh, now the banks are being stricter? WTF is going on?

 
Comment by Puggs
2016-08-25 13:57:15

Subprime Auto Delinquencies Jump 17% In July, Net Losses Soar 28%

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-25/subprime-auto-delinquencies-jump-17-july-net-losses-soar-28

Downward pressure on car prices yesterday PLEASE!!

 
Comment by Neuromance
2016-08-25 14:29:31

I heard a couple of interviews on Bloomberg radio with a couple of Jackson Hole attendees. These are people at the top of central bank branches or financial companies. I realized these people have so much more information and influence in the markets and on the Federal Reserve than the average person - and at the same time they are participants in those same markets.

Seems like these situations are rife with the possibilities of conflicts of interest as well access to large amounts of material, non-public (inside) information.

Comment by Mr. Beaver
2016-08-25 15:27:28

Yep. It is good to be an insider.

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-08-25 15:00:47

Don’t think I’ve heard this version in 35 years.

J. GEILS BAND-MUST OF GOT LOST-LIVE W/INTRO - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCxzQA1oy0c - 256k - Cached - Similar pages
Feb 28, 2014 .

Comment by phony scandals
2016-08-25 15:29:32

If anybody wants to stay at the keg party it smells like they are smoking a joint back there by the tree.

Whammer Jammer (Original Version) - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gdvgjLvi6c - 230k -

 
 
Comment by azdude
2016-08-25 15:47:40

have any of you heard about this hero program pushing pace loann in CA?

Seem like a bunch of scammers.

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2016-08-25 15:55:21

C-SPAN asks if you like your National Parks (designated 100 years ago today):

https://www.c-span.org/video/?414022-2/washington-journal-news-headlines-viewer-calls

Comment by phony scandals
2016-08-25 16:55:57

“C-SPAN asks if you like your National Park”

Whose National Park?

Report: Armed rangers forced senior-citizen tourists to stay inside their hotel during Yellowstone visit because of shutdown

posted at 2:41 pm on October 8, 2013 by Allahpundit

The bus stopped along a road when a large herd of bison passed nearby, and seniors filed out to take photos. Almost immediately, an armed ranger came by and ordered them to get back in, saying they couldn’t “recreate.” The tour guide, who had paid a $300 fee the day before to bring the group into the park, argued that the seniors weren’t “recreating,” just taking photos.

“She responded and said, ‘Sir, you are recreating,’ and her tone became very aggressive,” Vaillancourt said.

The seniors quickly filed back onboard and the bus went to the Old Faithful Inn, the park’s premier lodge located adjacent to the park’s most famous site, Old Faithful geyser. That was as close as they could get to the famous site — barricades were erected around Old Faithful, and the seniors were locked inside the hotel, where armed rangers stayed at the door.

“They looked like Hulk Hogans, armed. They told us you can’t go outside,” she said. “Some of the Asians who were on the tour said, ‘Oh my God, are we under arrest?’ They felt like they were criminals.”

Hodgson said in a phone interview Monday that a ranger pulled up behind the bus and told him he would have to get everyone back on the bus — recreation in Yellowstone was not allowed.

“She told me you need to return to your hotel and stay there,” Hodgson said. “This is just Gestapo tactics. We paid a lot to get in. All these people wanted to do was take some pictures.”

Hodgson said the ranger told him he could be convicted of trespassing if he disobeyed.

“The national parks belong to the people,” he said. “This isn’t right.”

http://hotair.com/archives/2013/10/08/report-armed-rangers-forced-senior-citizen-tourists-to-stay-inside-their-hotel-during-yellowstone-visit-because-of-shutdown/ - 112k - Cached - Similar pages

 
 
Comment by azdude
2016-08-25 16:51:40

WE NEED MORE PUMP PRIMING! LMFAO

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-08-25 22:43:29

There really can’t ever be enough.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-08-26 09:01:17

Apparently other countries are much more generous with welfare than we are:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37159686

 
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