The Glut Is Starting To Happen At Lower Price Ranges
The Atlanta Journal Constitution reports from Georgia. “Atlanta’s home prices rose 5.8 percent during the past year, slightly better than average gains across the country, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index. The pace of price increases has been slowing. The stock of homes for sale has been historically low overall, but uneven, with a low number of listings among modestly-priced homes and a surplus at the top end of the market. Now that surplus at the higher tiers may be trickling down. ‘There’s getting to be a glut of inventory at the high end,’ said Nancy Keenan, realtor at Keller Williams Peachtree Road. ‘You may have 100 choices at this point. And that is starting to happen at the lower price ranges. Now, we are looking at a glut of inventory at $600,000 and up.’”
“She worked with sellers of a house in Virginia Highland, bought two years ago for $560,000, and priced it at $639,000. ‘We put it on the market for two weeks. There were 15 showings and no offers.’”
News on 6 in Oklahoma. “Two and a half years after breaking ground, owners of new downtown Tulsa condos Urban 8 still haven’t sold a single one. The eight units, which at one point had a price tag of close to $1 million a piece, don’t have any new tenants. Recently - an available sign went up outside of the Urban 8 office building, with the realtor only telling me the space is available for lease or rent. The price of the condos has also been slashed by $200,000. Developer Yvonne Hovell tells News On 6 the project is still moving along, but a glance inside the condos still shows bare, unfinished walls.”
The Toledo Blade in Ohio. “Metro Toledo and three other Ohio cities are among the worst areas in the country when it comes to the percentage of homes still ’seriously’ underwater. Nearly a quarter of the houses with mortgages in metro Toledo, or more than 71,000, were considered seriously underwater in the April through June period, according to Attom Data Solutions. The 23.6 percent of Toledo’s housing units in such condition was enough to rank the local area No. 5 among the nation’s biggest metro areas, the study shows.”
“Worse than Toledo are Cleveland, Las Vegas, Akron, and Dayton. Cleveland topped the dubious list at 27.5 percent. But other Ohio metro areas also fared poorly, with Youngstown at No. 14 with 18 percent of its homes with such negative equity; Columbus was No. 20 at 16.6 percent, and Cincinnati was No. 24 at 15.6 percent. Ohio was the third-highest state at 20.9 percent, behind Nevada, at 22.2 percent, and Illinois at 22.1 percent.”
“Perrysburg real estate broker Jon Modene, of ReMax Masters, who specializes in foreclosed, real-estate owned, and distressed properties, said metro Toledo’s fifth-place ranking seems accurate. ‘There are many people who have hung on and didn’t want to lose their house,’ Mr. Modene explained. ‘There are a lot of upside-down houses in [Toledo]. And you have banks that have been letting people stay in houses even while they are underwater. I call it a shadow inventory.’”
There was another article on Urban 8 in Tulsa 8 days earlier, by the same reporter.
“As the city grows, developers are learning the demand for people wanting to but instead of rent grows as well, making it the newest trend in downtown Tulsa living. Near 3rd and Kenosha, eight condominiums – known as the Urban 8 - are going up; but they’re unique because of their high quality and hefty price tag of $875,000 apiece.”
Having worked as a newspaper intern more than 30 years ago, here is what happened.
The Urban 8 developer sent a press release to the TV station, who sent Meaghan to go out and do a story. She interviews the people, etc. The puff piece is published.
Then the editor gets a call from a tipster, who sent Meaghan out to interview some other people. The result is the story cited.
The exact same thing happened to me! It led to a solvent recycling business, that was failing and trying to drum up interest to sell to someone with a news story, being shut down by the EPA for leaking toxics.
Because I was in dry cleaning I knew of one of these recycling companies. When it closed up it was discovered they were just putting the old solvent in a storage locker.
LEE ADLER
City of Big Bubbles Chicago – Case Shiller Has A Problem
by Lee Adler • August 31, 2016
The flaws in the Case Shiller Index national data are bad enough. But Case Shiller’s worst features become most glaring in the metro market data. The problems start with using stale old public record data. The lag gets worse with the use of the 3 month average of sale prices from that stale data….
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/city-of-big-bubbles-chicago-case-shiller-has-a-problem/?utm_source=ReviveOldPost&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ReviveOldPost
What does”stale old public record data” mean here? The CS index is intrinsically dependent on the use of “old data”, as it is a “repeat sales” index. Is Stockman saying the data are bad because they are old, or because they are wrong?
the “lag ” grows to 1 yr plus when the market turns
5/2005 was the last peak, yet you hear 06 and even 2007 as the peak years
I get the lag issue. The Case-Shiller Index is several months out of date when published. Most academic economists’ awareness of the economic status quo is based on lagged analysis of old data, and hence similarly stale.
Bubbles And Elevators
by Lance Roberts • August 31, 2016
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/bubbles-and-elevators/?utm_source=ReviveOldPost&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ReviveOldPost
Michael Lewitt: “We’re In The Late Stages of Ponzi Finance”
by ZeroHedge • August 31, 2016
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/michael-lewitt-were-in-the-late-stages-of-ponzi-finance/?utm_source=ReviveOldPost&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=ReviveOldPost
$1,000,000 in downtown……..Tulsa?
And no one see a problem with this?
Under the enlightened, competent, fiscally prudent and responsible stewardship of the Comrades of Proven Worth (D), and with our robust economic recovery well underway, such urban cores are set to thrive. Thus the high price tag is justified given such a bright future.
Oh, wait….
Interesting blaming it on the Democrats. I’ve always thought Tulsa was in Oklahoma, which is pretty much THE most conservative state in the Union.
More conservative than Utah? I was deeply impressed that Utah was the only state where both H. Ross Perot and GHWB polled ahead of Bill Clinton in 1992.
Trending
New Poll: Despite Being Unpopular as Heck, Donald Trump Easily Leads in Utah
By Michael van der Galien
August 23, 2016
Donald Trump is not exactly the most popular Republican presidential candidate ever in Utah, but he still leads the polls in the Beehive State:
No other Republican candidate could possibly be happy with 39% support in one of the most conservative states in U.S., but for Trump this is actually quite acceptable. Not because 39% itself is a great result, but because his opponents — first and foremost Hillary Clinton, of course — do even worse.
Only 24% of Utah voters say they intend to vote for the former first lady. That’s less than one in four. It shows how incredibly despised she is by conservatives. Utah voters would rather support Trump (who is basically everything Utah Republicans are not: a bully, indecent, immoral, a braggart), Gary Johnson (a liberal Republican) or Evan McMullin (an outsider with little to no shot at winning) than the Hillster.
…
Easy to foll a Mormon. ( gotta love South Park)
It’s true. Utah has a reputation as one of the scam capitals of the U.S. It’s hard to imagine the Trump mystique not catching on there.
Utah, but he still leads the polls in the Beehive State ??
Because the #1 issue for them is Roe V. Wade…All else is secondary…
Hey PB I know you are not a practicing LDS.
A colleague of mine claims he is not, but was raised by LDS parents. His brother is gay and renounced LDS years ago. His sister is married to an Afghani.
Their dad died of Alzheimer’s years ago. Their mom is suffering from alzheimer’s
Coffee and tea helps slow down or prevent Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s. Yet if you google “mormon coffee alzheimer’s” you will see lots of links about them suffering from those diseases because of the stupid rules against caffeine.
They eat chocolate though. I could never understand the hypocrisy, as chocolate has caffeine!
My colleague does not drink coffee or tea. Go figure. His wife is Chinese and she probably drinks tea. My colleague should know about coffee’s health advantages - he is intelligent and reads a lot, but reads mostly history.
I hope you drink tea or coffee - caffeinated.
I have a cuppa coffee in front of me and a bottle of wine behind me.
My LDS BIL has a fridge so full of diet Coke that you have to duck when you open it in order to not have a can of Coke fall out and hit you in the head. But he drinks no coffee.
I was in SLC a few weeks ago, it was Sunday and all the church goers looked over 70 and had on 30 yr old suits.
The downtown admin building for LDS is ridiculously yuuuuuge!! $$$$$
Think multi-billion dollar corporation…and a very well organized one at that, run by retired corporate executives…
“…a bully, indecent, immoral, a braggart…”
Are these qualities Trump supporters admire? I have worked for and with plenty of people like this, but I would rather not have such a person in high office.
Good that you are into the anti oxidants, resveratrol and phytochemicals, PB. Amazing that other people choose religion over health. I have “Christan Science” relatives. Prayer did not seem to help one who died of congestive heart failure.
I too, would not want a bully or braggart as president.
I used to have a Christian Science coworker. Prayer was not a sufficient cure when his son came down with treatable bacterial meningitis and died at age 12. The funeral was the most bizarre religious gathering I ever attended…no rite of mourning, and the family members spoke of little Johnny as though he was still alive and there in the room with us.
At least LDS folks don’t shun modern medicine.
cities are mostly dem
check the demographic
Tulsa looks pretty red to me:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Tulsa,_Oklahoma
Ray Ray worships anything that calls itself republican, despite is protests to the contrary. Hence, all evil in the world flows from democrats.
$1 million tornado magnets in the middle of the depressed oil patch?
It’s nucking futz. God must be LHAO over the situation.
ITS DIFFERENT THIS TIME.
I’ve visited downtown TUL maybe 20-30 times. There isn’t much besides a few office buildings and a small hipster nightlife. One of the dive bars was in the basement of an apartment building and was the place to be for people watching. We called it the “Wooklyn Bar” because the hipsters tried SO HARD to act like wanna be Brooklynites. PBRs, scarfs, man buns, beards……it was pretty funny to see.
there is a fine line between trying to be a hipster and an actual hipster. Like the fine line between a hippie and white trash.
Was there an old typewriter on display in the bar?
LOL. True.
The hippie rolls his own while white trash drives down to 7-11.
My friends parents are up in OK, out in the sticks in the flat part of the state. For a tornado shelter they got one of those metal shipping containers and bolted it to a concrete pad. Nobody has basements up there so if you don’t have a designated concrete safe room, the metal container is a cheap alternative.
I can’t imagine anyone with a clue paying a million dollars for a condo in Tulsa. For that money you could get a working cattle ranch.
Apparently no one did buy one.
‘Nobody has basements up there’
I grew up not too far from Tulsa. Lots of people had basements. When people started accepting shacks with slabs it probably did away with the basement. If there was a tornado, I wouldn’t run outside. An interior bathroom would be better. Of course, when I as growing up most people went outside to watch or got on the roof to see it better. Cars are where most people get killed, I think.
One year as a boy, visiting relatives in Indiana, we had a tornado warning. Everybody piled into an interior bathroom. I asked why, and somebody said it was because the pipes in the walls helped to reinforce them. Is this true?
It’s a long shot for any one house to be in a given twister’s direct path. I grew up in tornado alley and never saw one over the course of three decades, though one hit a business across the street from my school when I was in third grade. It wasn’t until the bad tornado season of 2011 until one plowed through my parents’ neighborhood a few blocks away from their home after hitting the St. Louis airport.
The pipes and the support around them. If you look at a house under construction, an interior bathroom will look fortified compared to the rest of it. I knew a person once that got in the bathtub and pulled a blanket over to protect from flying glass. It got quiet and then the roof lifted off. The sky was blue above. Most people don’t know the actual twister is almost always at the trailing edge of the storm.
“Most people don’t know the actual twister is almost always at the trailing edge of the storm.”
They’re some times called ‘worst-last’ storms for this reason.
IMHO the Housing Bubble saga is destined to turn out similarly.
“Most people don’t know the actual twister is almost always at the trailing edge of the storm.”
That’s why twisters are sometimes referred to as ‘worst-last’ storms.
The Housing Bubble is destined to turn out similarly by the time it ends.
“Of course, when I as growing up most people went outside to watch or got on the roof to see it better.”
For entertainment?
Sounds like fun actually. Fire up the BBQ, watch the tornados!
Until people get killed but in the meantime it sounds fun.
Twisters, Minnesotans and beer is a dangerous blend
This is one of the most terrifying tornado documentaries I have seen.
Jarrell Texas F5 Tornado Dead Man Walking Documentary
Lived in Texas for a while. Dad was in the Army and we lived in a trailer park. Woke up one morning and the trailer across the street from us (we lived on a corner lot) and many other trailers that hadn’t been tied down, were flipped. Pretty bad windstorm I guess. I slept through it. I think the thing that saved our trailer was the fact that the one next to us was longer and tied down.
We went to Oklahoma to visit friends and while were there a huge storm rolled through and we ended up in a community shelter. That rain was getting pushed by so much wind it actually stung. Fun times.
Or cars being totaled by a minute or two of hail. One of the spookier things I experienced was a down-burst. This happens when cold air gets trapped above a layer of warmer air and then breaks through and gushes down. It can be over 100 MPH. No warning nor any way to predict it. It can blow houses out flat.
“For a tornado shelter they got one of those metal shipping containers and bolted it to a concrete pad. Nobody has basements up there so if you don’t have a designated concrete safe room, the metal container is a cheap alternative.”
Hopefully fully they won’t be directly hit by an EF4 or EF5 twister while living there. I can’t imagine that kind of shelter providing anything but psychological comfort against a lethal storm.
I never recall hearing if my parents bothered to go to the basement the night of the St. Louis airport tornado. I believe the intensity was EF4 when it hit the airport, but was considerably lower when it reached their neighbors’ roofs.
Oh bugger… Where is Albuquerque Dan when you need someone to assure you that all is well in the oil patch?
Employment
Where the Energy Sector’s Pain Still Drives Up Unemployment
Cities in Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas and Wyoming account for most big jumps in joblessness
Isa Salas, who once worked for the oil company Halliburton, stands outside her Mexican food cart this year in Odessa, Texas.
Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
By Ben Leubsdorf
Aug 31, 2016 11:27 am ET
Two years of slumping oil prices are continuing to take a toll on once-booming U.S. cities from the Gulf Coast to the Rocky Mountains.
The Labor Department on Wednesday reported that 11 metropolitan areas had unemployment rates in July that were at least a percentage point higher compared with a year earlier. Seven were in just four energy-producing states: Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas and Wyoming.
They included Casper, Wyo., where the unemployment rate jumped 2.5 percentage points over the year to 7.3% in July. In Odessa, Texas, joblessness rose to 6.8% from 5.1%. The unemployment rate jumped to 7.2% in Houma-Thibodaux, La., from 5.8% a year earlier. And in Tulsa, Okla., unemployment was 5.3% in July, up from 4.3%.
…
“Anyone who tells you that the core issue is the needs of those living here illegally has simply spent too much time in Washington.
Only the out of touch media elites think the biggest problems facing America — you know this, this is what they talk about, facing American society today is that there are 11 million illegal immigrants who don’t have legal status. And, they also think the biggest thing, and you know this, it’s not nuclear, and it’s not ISIS, it’s not Russia, it’s not China, it’s global warming.
To all the politicians, donors, and special interests, hear these words from me and all of you today. There is only one core issue in the immigration debate, and that issue is the well being of the American people.
Nothing even comes a close second. Hillary Clinton, for instance, talks constantly about her fears that families will be separated, but she’s not talking about the American families who have been permanently separated from their loved ones because of a preventable homicide, because of a preventable death, because of murder.
No, she’s only talking about families who come here in violation of the law. We will treat everyone living or residing in our country with great dignity. So important.
We will be fair, just, and compassionate to all, but our greatest compassion must be for our American citizens.”
Gee, what a concept!
Racis.
Free to Kill: 124 Criminal Aliens Released By Obama Policies Charged with Homicide Since 2010
By Jessica Vaughan, March 14, 2016
There is a human cost to the Obama administration’s careless catch and release policies for criminal aliens, euphemistically known as “prioritization”. These policies have led to 124 new homicides since 2010, and thousands of other crimes that harm citizens and degrade the quality of life in American communities.
124 Aliens Charged With Homicide After Release Since 2010
A total of 121 criminal aliens who were freed by ICE over the five-year period between 2010 and 2014 were subsequently charged with homicide-related crimes within that time frame. (Three more were charged in 2015; see below.) These 121 accused murderers were associated with 250 different communities in the United States, with the most clustered in California, New York and Texas.
Why Were They Released?
ICE has previously disclosed that 75 percent of the homicidal criminal aliens were released due to court orders, including the so-called Zadvydas cases, in which the alien’s home country would not take them back. The rest were released by ICE’s choice.
http://cis.org/vaughan/Map-124-criminal-aliens-released-obama-policies-charged-homicide-2010 - 92k -
Illegal Alien Crime Accounts for over 30% of Murders in Many States
by Tom Tancredo8 Aug 2015
Let’s look at a few numbers. You haven’t seen them in the New York Times, Atlanta Constitution, or the Miami Herald, nor have they been featured on NBC Nightly news or CNN. So, the average American is blissfully unaware of them.
Between 2008 and 2014, 40% of all murder convictions in Florida were criminal aliens. In New York it was 34% and Arizona 17.8%.
During those years, criminal aliens accounted for 38% of all murder convictions in the five states of California, Texas, Arizona, Florida and New York, while illegal aliens constitute only 5.6% of the total population in those states.
That 38% represents 7,085 murders out of the total of 18,643.
That 5.6% figure for the average illegal alien population in those five states comes from US Census estimates. We know the real number is double that official estimate. Yet, even if it is 11%, it is still shameful that the percentage of murders by criminal aliens is more than triple the illegal population in those states.
That was really one of the most interesting and forceful points of Trump’s speech. The Pravda media drools and simpers over the “11 Million” and “dreamers” and “separating families” and other drivel. The concern is for the well being of the “11 Million” here illegally.
And along comes Trump and he says “There is only one core issue in the immigration debate, and that issue is the well being of the American people.” Ed Zachary!
And as he pointed out, what about the American families who have been “separated” from loved ones as a result of violence and crimes perpetrated against those loved ones by illegal aliens? Trump had his own posse of separated family members on the stage last night.
So, now the debate is properly framed, as it always should have been. At least, as long as we have a country with citizens and taxpayers and stuff like that. If we don’t, that’s another matter, then dissolve Washington and re-form with some other entity.
Doesn’t just being here and integrating into American society make the Dreamers a part of it?
Where is this “11 million” number coming from?
Pew Hispanic Research Center December 13, 2007:
Hispanics are the nation’s largest minority group, numbering 47 million (about 15.5% of the total U.S. population). About a quarter of Hispanic adults are unauthorized immigrants, most of them arriving as part of a heavy wave of immigration that began gathering force in the 1970s.
Immigration Laws should benefit the receiving country. Will it benefit America’s future, and is it good for REAL American citizens? Ann Coulter (who I am no fan of) coined the phase “We’re not the abused women’s shelter of the world”. Well said, Ann.
I read somewhere that nearly half of illegal immigrants are not Hispanic. You don’t hear about it much. It must not fit the narrative.
my grandparents had to be vetted at Ellis island in 1912 -13 they had to wait to be tested for diseases even given a written English test and had to have a place to go to with people who knew them
mine settled in Bridgeport CT at first with a Hungarian community and church nearby, so the assimilation was relatively easy
My immigrant ancestors were Germans, but not Dreamers. Like many other immigrants to this country of previous generations, they went through a legal naturalization process beginning at Ellis Island.
I guess there is no political support for a middle ground legal immigration process where those who want to become U.S. citizens have a clear process as an alternative to sneaking in illegally? That would make for very boring political theater.
I guess there is no political support for a middle ground legal immigration process where those who want to become U.S. citizens have a clear process as an alternative to sneaking in illegally?
Of course there is one. Almost a million people are sworn in every year as citizens. The problem is that so many people want to come here that unless you are skilled, have a relative who can sponsor you, or are a protected class refugee that you will have to wait a very long time to get in.
What it sounds like you are asking for is essentially open borders where anyone who so desires so can legally come to the USA. For that there is no political support.
I’m not asking for open borders. I’m asking for a legal path to citizenship for those who want to become citizens. Don’t put words into my mouth, please.
Immigration Laws should benefit the receiving country. Will it benefit America’s future, and is it good for REAL American citizens? Ann Coulter (who I am no fan of) coined the phase “We’re not the abused women’s shelter of the world”. Well said, Ann.
It’s not a straightforward matter to determine whether an immigrant will benefit “REAL American citizens”. Any type of immigrant will probably benefit some American and harm others. Bringing in lots of skilled software engineers from India will generally be good for shareholders of companies that produce software, but bad for American software engineers. The arrival of rich Chinese who caused the prices of houses and condos to skyrocket in Vancouver must have benefited some Canadians.
And the analogy to the abused women’s shelter doesn’t make sense. Plenty of people can make important contributions once they get away from abusive situations. A great example of that is the scientists and other skilled professionals who came here after fleeing Nazi Germany.
Ann Coulter = Madam Venom…
I’m asking for a legal path to citizenship for those who want to become citizens.
There is one. Like I said, almost a million people are sworn in as new citizens every year, so there most definitely a legal path. Does it mean that everyone who applies will be allowed admission? No, it does not.
Sorry for putting words in your mouth, but in my experience when people ask for “a legal path to citizenship for those who want to become citizens” that is usually code for “let every one who shows up in and give them a green card”.
live rounds
IKE turned them around w 1/10 the manpower of today
and yep, the border was just as long in the 50’s
I wonder if one of the resident Trump boosters could explain this sentence, from a NYT piece I posted rather late on yesterday’s thread:
“Going through the swing states one by one, party officials showed Eric Trump that his father was drastically underperforming other Republicans in the polls.”
It almost suggests Trump is running against other Republicans. I thought Trump was the Republican nominee?
What if we simply just. don’t. givachit?
Getting a little testy there, Palmy?
No, what if we simply just. don’t. givachit?
What if we just repeat ourselves alot?
What if we just repeat ourselves alot?
Then we’d be just like you!
“Then we’d be just like you!”
Michael Viping seems to always be waiting for the opportune moment to launch an odd hominem attack from the shadows.
I find this behavior rather peculiar.
What if we just repeat ourselves alot?
Then we’d be just like you!
Ziiiiiiiing!
Pile on much?
No, what if we simply just. don’t. givachit ??
Well, thats pretty damm obvious from what I see of the Trump boosters…Burn down the house mentality…
Donald Trump is running a special campaign for special people. Kind of like the Special Olympics.
Michael Viping
And look! True to form you followed up with ad hominem. I love your hypocrisy. Truly you have this skill mastered more than any other here. Next up from you: the straw man attack!
Watch out, Michael, I’m gonna say “boo”…
“And look! True to form you followed up with ad hominem. I love your hypocrisy. Truly you have this skill mastered more than any other here. Next up from you: the straw man attack!”
That’s the prof fer ya. Takes a shot or two at ya, and when you fire back, gets all “safe space-y” about it.
Like one of those kids on the playground that everyone loves to hate, kicks ya when the teacher isn’t watching and starts sniffling about “bullies” when someone kicks back.
Boy are we getting thin skinned around here…
“from a NYT piece I posted rather late on yesterday’s thread:”
It almost suggests?
LMAO
Pat Caddell: New York Times and Washington Post Newsrooms Engaged in ‘Jihad Against Donald Trump’
by Dan Riehl8 Jun 2016
Washington, DC
Veteran political strategist Pat Caddell tells SiriusXM hosts Stephen K. Bannon and Alex Marlow on Breitbart News Daily that a source “with those connections” who had been visiting both newsrooms who said, “My God, to go into the newsrooms of the New York Times and the Washington Post is to enter a raging jihad against Donald Trump.”
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/06/08/pat-caddell-new-york-times-and-washington-post-newsrooms-engaged-in-jihad-against-donald-trump/ - 174k -
“…tells SiriusXM hosts Stephen K. Bannon and Alex Marlow on Breitbart News Daily…”
I’m sure whatever these guys said was fair and balanced…
Is Feinstein up for re-election this year? You can vote for her (again) and vote for real journalists. Andrew Breitbart was murdered under direct order from Obama. How many non-real journalists will Hillary murder?
“Andrew Breitbart was murdered under direct order from Obama.”
Speaking of people who repeat themselves, I have read this here over and over again, but nowhere else. Does anyone except this one special HBB poster have the story, or is it our own special secret?
You don’t get to troll ACORN (which elected Obama) and live to tell about it. See also Sharyl Atkisson’s laptop turning itself on and off.
The best part of your post is calling me special.
I am special. I know things…
That was one angry dude. Take a look at the sneer on his lip. Talk about a candidate for a rage cage!
Andrew Breitbart at CPAC 2012 02102012 - FULL SPEECH
At least it’s not a hole in his tongue.
Here is the money quote from the NYT’s piece:
“Over the last week, close associates have told both Mr. Trump and members of his family that he is in real danger of losing the race, according to a half-dozen people close to the Trump campaign and briefed on its activities, who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid angering the nominee.”
If Trump’s closest advisors are cowering in fear of angering him, then how are they going to be able to help him steer the ship away from the iceberg dead ahead in the water?
he is in real danger of losing the race ??
“If” the polls widen were to a widen to the point where there is no doubt, will he quit the race ?? Will his gigantic narcissism allow him to go down in flames…??
There is more than one Republican on the ballot in each state.
There are representatives, senators, etc.
So, if in Wisconsin, Paul Ryan is polling at 65% (made up number) of the vote against the Democratic contender, and Trump is polling at 38% (the real number), then Trump is underperforming Ryan, another Republican.
I thought that was the point, but the wording almost suggested my alternative interpretation.
Here’s an interesting article. To summarize, it says “you’d rather have Mexicans than Blacks in your town”
http://takimag.com/article/las_dirty_little_brown_secret_david_cole
“Nothing even comes a close second. Hillary Clinton, for instance, talks constantly about her fears that families will be separated, but she’s not talking about the American families who have been permanently separated from their loved ones because of a preventable homicide, because of a preventable death, because of murder.”
Are you trying to insinuate that most Americans killed in violent crimes are the victims of illegal immigrant criminals? Or is it more the Mooslim terrorists we should fear?
Please clarify your fear mongering narrative.
We’ve Reached the “Zero Point” of Debt Creation
by Harry Dent • September 1, 2016
We’re hurtling toward a massive financial crisis, and all we have to show for it are financial asset bubbles destined to burst. And when they do, they’ll wipe out the artificial wealth they’ve created for many decades…
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/09/01/weve-reached-the-zero-point-of-debt-creation/
We’re hurtling toward a massive financial crisis, and all we have to show for it are financial asset bubbles destined to burst.
We’re hurtling towards something bad and we don’t have anything of value to show for it. That’s not surprising.
“We lose money on every sale, but we plan to make it all up on volume.”
illegals are low crime and welfare vs blacks
so solly
OK, so why the big Republican push to get rid of illegals?
Mainly it’s because they are a boogeyman for there being higher unemployment in GOP strongholds.
Secondarily it’s because they are here illegally.
To elaborate on the second point, my neighbor (plenty of “NOBAMA” stickers on his cars) said fairly concisely:
A country is not a country without a border.
Our debt-fueled stock market rally is unsustainable.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/09/01/weve-reached-the-zero-point-of-debt-creation/
THE LEVERAGE AND DEBT CREATED THE CRISIS AND THEN THEY DECIDED TO TRY IT AGAIN?
BUSINESS CREATES JOBS!
We should just create more credit off of reserves so people can use more leverage to buy stocks and homes. Let the people overseas do the dirty work as we just live off of capital gains!
Eliminate all cash while we’re at it so only bank-controlled credit can be used for buying stuff.
I find this thinking off base.
The problem is not cash, but a progressive ad valorem income tax that encourages illegal income producing activities. If you tax legitimate income producing activities, you will drive down legitimate forms of wealth generation and encourage more illegal production. Every economist on the planet, including Kenneth Rogoff, shares this fundamental insight. If you tax the production of value on the margin, you end up with less of it than without the tax.
August 30, 2016
Let’s Discontinue Kenneth Rogoff’s Commentary, Not the $100 Bill
By John Tamny
In a recent opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff declared that there’s “little debate among law-enforcement agencies that paper currency, especially large notes such as the $100 bill, facilitates crime.” Rogoff would like to discontinue the $100 in order to - try not to laugh - reduce crime.
Can the eminent economist really be so naïve as to presume that the disappearance of a piece of paper would prove effective at making the U.S. (and the world) more honest and safe? Apparently he does, while lightly acknowledging what economists refer to as the “substitution effect.” If $100 Federal Reserve notes prove scarce, then similar euro and Pound bills will do the job, as will 10,000 yen notes. If $100 bills simplify big criminal transactions, wouldn’t little gold coins simplify crime even more?
…
Are the sheeple waking up?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-31/nigel-farage-warns-establishment-losing-control-over-people
Is Nigel Farage the newfangled expert on what is ailing Western society at large?
Or is he just another bloviating populist propagandist who captures the fawning fascination of the lunatic fringe?
Do you like Huey Lewis and The News?
Never heard a single song by them. I’m admittedly a pop-culture ignoramus, though ironically I have occasionally found myself on stage with pop icons.
Their early work was a little too wave for my taste, but when Sports came out in ‘83, I think they really came into their own.
Their early work was a little too new wave for my taste. But when Sports came out in ‘83, I think they really came into their own, commercially and artistically. The whole album has a clear, crisp sound, and a new sheen of consummate professionalism that really gives the songs a big boost. He’s been compared to Elvis Costello, but I think Huey has a far more bitter, cynical sense of humor
In ‘87, Huey released this; Fore!, their most accomplished album. I think their undisputed masterpiece is “Hip To Be Square”. A song so catchy, most people probably don’t listen to the lyrics. But they should, because it’s not just about the pleasures of conformity and the importance of trends. It’s also a personal statement about the band itself.
I have all the characteristics of a human being: flesh, blood, skin, hair; but not a single, clear, identifiable emotion, except for greed and disgust. Something horrible is happening inside of me and I don’t know why. My nightly bloodlust has overflown into my days. I feel lethal, on the verge of frenzy. I think my mask of sanity is about to slip.
If you watched Back To The Future you’ve heard their stuff.
LOL, spmk. One of the best bits in all of moviedom.
My first concert ever was from their “Sports Tour” in 1984. I think I may need to buy that album for a little nostalgia (my prior copy was a cassette tape, and I’m sure is slowly disintegrating over the next 1,000 years in a landfill somewhere).
The book is better, but it is pretty twisted.
I admire Farage. For many years I watched him stand up to the bullying and insults from the EU, with fact based arguments pointing out how undemocratic the process was and what harm was being done to all involved. He stood up for Greece when the EU was turning it over to Goldman Sachs. He helped convinced the people in his country to give Da Meddle Fanger to the establishment and Brexit. He’s got as good a view on what the problems are as anyone.
So many politicians just sit back on cruise control thinking that printing money is going to solve everything.
I haven’t seen any changes locally.
How is it possible to create wealth from printing pieces of paper?
He was in Mississippi recently, meddling in the election of a foreign country. In other words, he’s a globalist. Stay home, Nigel. You’ve got enough problems on your miserable, rainy little home island.
“In other words, he’s a globalist.”
Ignore what I say, watch what I do.
Whatever one might think of Farage, people in this country are capable of making up their own minds about what he is saying and what he stands for, and whether he should be listened to or ignored. President Obama traveled to London earlier this year and urged people in the UK to vote against Brexit. Before that, in 2014, he urged Scottish people to vote “no” in their referendum. Were those things OK? Or should Obama have stayed home — the Brexit comments were made in London — because we have enough problems here?
http://www.wsj.com/articles/during-london-visit-obama-urges-u-k-voters-to-stay-in-eu-1461318148
“President Barack Obama bluntly urged Britain to remain a member of the European Union on Friday, warning that the country’s prospects for forging a trade agreement with the U.S. would suffer if it left the bloc.
…
Mr. Obama rejected suggestions that he was meddling in British politics. As a friend of the U.K., he said, he wanted to offer his opinion and explain why remaining in the EU would benefit both Britain and the U.S.”
____________________________________/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11103256/Barack-Obama-tells-Scotland-stay-united.html
“President Barack Obama made an 11th-hour appeal for Scots to vote no, saying he hopes Britain “remains strong, robust and united”.
The unusual last-minute intervention by the President is a sign of concern in Washington that one of America’s closest allies could be about to split in two.”
President Obama traveled to London earlier this year and urged people in the UK to vote against Brexit. Before that, in 2014, he urged Scottish people to vote “no” in their referendum. Were those things OK? Or should Obama have stayed home — the Brexit comments were made in London — because we have enough problems here?
Yes, he should have stayed home and not commented on the issue.
“He was in Mississippi recently, meddling in the election of a foreign country. In other words, he’s a globalist.”
This message has been brought to you by the Southern Poverty Law Center.
Southern Poverty Law Center
When the feds raided Ruby Ridge they shot Vicki Weaver’s face off as she was standing in the doorway holding a baby.
They even shot the family dog.
This message has not been brought to you by real journalists.
he worked with sellers of a house in Virginia Highland, bought two years ago
there is that 2 year “lifetime home ownership goal”… looking to make a tax free profit..
3% down on a 400k stucco shack = 12k
400k/ 12k = 33 Times leverage
We need to get to 100 times leverage for a booming economy!
33 times leverage today, underwater tomorrow…
Sacramento Foothills Report:
Renting: SFR rents continue to escalate as there is a lack of available single family homes and high demand pushes up rents. I estimate a house that rented for $2,000/month in 2006 is now renting for $2,350/month today. That is a 17.5% increase in 10-years. That is a 1.6% annual increase. I cannot speak to apartments and I don’t know about income levels.
Sales: The lower and middle markets are very tight, with most houses selling within 30 days if they are priced under $400,000. Anything from $400,000 to $750,000 is selling well (60-90 days). The upper end is very problematical. I see houses over $1,000,000 that have been on the market for 1-2 years with no activity. These sellers evidently have no clue they need to lower their price, but many of them are still stuck from buying in 2007 at the peak and are unwilling to take a loss.
Bank Owned: I still see vacant houses (maybe 1-2% of inventory) owned by banks with no resolution in sight. It is almost like the house is in no man’s land and maybe dropped of the radar and is lost in the paperwork shuffle! I know an HOA that foreclosed for lack of dues, rented the house out to a savvy tenant (contractor), who fixed it up and is renting it from the HOA for 1/2 price. All the while some loan servicer seems to have misplaced the file for the $950,000 loan which has been in default since 2006! The HOA gets the rent, the tenant gets a break, the servicer probably gets their special fees and the insurance company/pension fund takes a prolonged financial hit! It is really goofy that we are still unwinding deals from a decade old bubble.
I hear oak park is the place to be now?
Yes, gentrification is happening….
hear oak park is the place to be now ??
Has been for a long time and even more so now with the resurgence of the core downtown…
“As for Reid’s declaration to “not fight central banks”, he is of course right: while asset prices had disconnected with fundamentals many years ago, considering this unprecedented central bank step up in asset micromanagement, the only driver behind asset prices is the relentless wall of liquidity entering the global market at a record pace.
Incidentally the chart above also shows why there continues to be widespread, persistent skepticism about a so-called global recovery: after all, the record intervention by central banks meant to prop up asset prices (and, supposedly, economic growth) suggests that if anything, the global economy has never been weaker.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-01/stunning-chart-shows-central-bank-liquity-now-driving-all-asset-prices
Dont fight the liquidity machine!
Don’t fight the Vampire Squid!
Fundamental transformation and cultural relativism comes to Sydney, Australia. Forward!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3767301/Muslim-refugee-20-raped-10-year-old-boy-bedroom-claimed-culturally-acceptable-sexually-assault-children-homeland.html#ixzz4IzmkYo4a
Fundamental transformation comes to Berlin. Forward!
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/09/01/child-brides-rise-german-capital/
Farmers massively levered up to buy expensive farmland and machinery while their incomes are cratering. Even using common core math, this looks unsustainable.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-30/usda-sees-2016-farm-income-crashing-farmer-leverage-spikes-34-year
OT, but here’s a surprising turn about for those interested in such things:
‘The Broken Chessboard: Brzezinski Gives Up on Empire’
I read that a couple of days ago. The Godfather of Globalism reconsiders. Well, at least he’s willing to concede and notice changes in the wind. While the neocons keep bashing their heads against the crumbling bricks.
I visit the Unz Review site almost every day. It is what it aspires to be: a forum for thoughtful alternative voices on the left and right. Some stuff on there I don’t care for, at all, but it’s important to read some stuff you don’t agree with.
I particularly follow Linh Dinh’s series on obscured or forgotten Americans, where he has people talk about their lives.
Donald Trump Says the ‘Outflow of Jobs’ to Mexico Is ‘Tremendous.’ How Big Is It?
It’s a tiny fraction of U.S. employment, according to economists
By William Mauldin
Sep 1, 2016 6:56 am ET
Donald Trump said trade has caused a “tremendous” exodus of American jobs. But it’s really more of a trickle, economists say.
The Republican presidential nominee, visiting Mexico, said the North American Free Trade Agreement has benefited Mexico more than the U.S.
“We must take action to stem the tremendous outflow of jobs from our country,” Mr. Trump said Wednesday after meeting Mexico’s president.
But trade is a two-way street, and a 2014 study published by the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that while imports from Mexico have displaced 203,000 jobs a year, the two-way trade has also supported 188,000 jobs due to U.S. exports headed south. So that’s a net 15,000 jobs lost annually, a tiny fraction of U.S. employment, according to the 2014 study by Gary Hufbauer, Cathleen Cimino and Tyler Moran.
Some economists, pointing to the $61 billion U.S. trade deficit with Mexico, say Nafta is responsible for a higher number of job losses.
But pretty much all would agree that imports from China, where the trade deficit measured a whopping $367 billion last year, are a bigger problem for the U.S. economy.
“Trade with Mexico has no measurable impact on U.S. unemployment or U.S. wages, unlike trade with China,” Mr. Hufbauer said Wednesday.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/09/01/donald-trump-says-the-outflow-of-jobs-to-mexico-is-tremendous-how-big-is-it/
I thought we mainly outsourced our manufacturing base to China? You can check on this at home. Go through all of your consumer goods with any kind of label on them and tally how many say “Made in Mexico” versus “Made in China.”
I know in my own case the China share would exceed 90%, and this doesn’t reflect any personal preference for Chinese-made goods.
If people are so unhappy with the products overseas why do they keep buying them?
Why do companies keep moving jobs overseas? It must be a lot cheaper to pay them.
How can these people overseas work cheaper?
Maybe their money goes further where they live?
Why does their money go further? Not as much of it?
If people are so unhappy with the products overseas why do they keep buying them?
You know the answer to that. It’s because they save money.
How can these people overseas work cheaper?
Maybe their money goes further where they live?
The answer to this is generally no. The people are just poorer. Many in Mexico live in shacks with dirt floors, no indoor plumbing, etc.
Lol Ford F150s are made in Mexico now and a couple GM models.
Kind of ironic that Honda, Nissan, and Toyota, the “foreign” automakers are building US plants while “domestic” automakers flee to Canada and Mexico. What a joke.
My 2015 Civic had its engine designed/built in Ohio, car assembled in Illinois, and 90% US materials. Better reliability, cheaper price, American made. Oh how the times have changed.
It makes sense, if you believe that it was more the American auto manufacturing managers than the workers who screwed the pooch in our auto industry. A big factor was a statistician named William Edwards Deming, father of Total Quality Management. Apparently his ideas were roundly ignored by U.S. auto executives, who liked a world where the Big Three U.S. carmakers enjoyed oligopoly control over the market and could sell us crappy cars that had to be replaced every three years.
Japanese manufacturers listened to Deming, and developed the manufacturing process that produces the Japanese automobiles some of us are fortunate enough to drive today. And if American workers fabricate them, it sounds like a win-win.
I had a client who packed, moved, and installed large mfg’ing equipment. In the mid 90’s he moved a bunch of large equipment for big outfits (Panasonic, GE, etc) from the US to MX, then in the 2000’s moved the same stuff from MX to China. I think he retired and bought a tanning salon after that.
Nice; but I hope he did not get burned with that investment.
I know in my own case the China share would exceed 90%, and this doesn’t reflect any personal preference for Chinese-made goods.
I know some people like to wax about how wealthy China has become. But the truth is that their wages are still so low that countries like Mexico can’t compete. Sure, China has a thriving managerial class, who work in those gleaming skyscapers in Shanghai and Beijing; but they are the minority.
Evidently not a minority if they can contribute some $50 billion to foreign real estate asset markets. But I suppose a minority of a 1 billion + nation is a large population
Their income inequality is worse than ours.
My brother works in procurement for a large multinational. He said that even with a minimum wage of $4 a day and with lower shipping costs (because it’s closer) that Mexico can’t compete with China.
I think one of the issues is that some of the big ticket items that used expensive labor moved to Mexico (auto mfg comes to mind), and that a number of the cheap-to-make products that were using low wage labor here in the first place (textiles come to mind) moved to Asia.
We need more trade deals
NAFTA at 20: One Million U.S. Jobs Lost, Higher Income Inequality
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lori-wallach/nafta-at-20-one-million-u_b_4550207.html - 383k - Cached - Similar pages
Jan 6, 2014 … …
Did Trump bring up the discussion with Mexico’s president about how Trump is going to force Mexico to pay for the Trump wall?
BBC NEWS
Donald Trump: Mexico will pay for wall, ‘100%’
1 September 2016
From the section US Election 2016
US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has insisted Mexico will pay for a border wall “100%”, in a major immigration speech.
He told a cheering crowd in Arizona that he would secure the border, and left open the possibility that millions of illegal immigrants be deported.
Hours earlier, he met Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto but said they had not discussed financing the wall.
The Mexican president later insisted he had told Mr Trump Mexico would not pay.
…
What I don’t get is why did they invite Trump in the first place? Was this a case of hedging their bets?
I saw an article where former President Vicente Fox blasted Pena Nieto for inviting Fox.
“What I don’t get is why did they invite Trump in the first place?”
I thought it was more of a decision by the Trump campaign to show how presidential he can appear with the right makeup and camera angle?
Published On: Wed, Aug 31st, 2016
Headlines / International / National / News | By Yucatan Times
Trump’s trip to Mexico came against the advice of US diplomats
Trump’s trip to Mexico was not only unusual for not including his traveling press corps, but also because it came against the advice of US diplomats.
The campaign’s decision to travel to a foreign country — one rife with security risks for a candidate who has stoked tensions with his rhetoric on Mexican immigrants — without reporters following close behind marks an unprecedented moment in the coverage of major party presidential nominees.
In addition, staff at the US Embassy in Mexico advised the Trump campaign against making such a hastily arranged trip, suggesting it would be logistically difficult to organize on such short notice, according to a source familiar with the discussions.
But Donald Trump is an unconventional individual, who handles an unconventional speech, behaves unconventionally and acts in unconventional manners most of the time.
…
unconventional speech, behaves unconventionally and acts in unconventional manners most of the time ??
And not someone that you want Commander of the military…
He was invited. From what I read in the Mexican media, people are stunned that he was invited.
Sure, he could show up one his own, but I doubt the Mexican president would have received him.
Seems like the Mexican president and Trump are similarly unpopular, and thus share a desperate need for positive publicity.
Pena Nieto has been utterly unable to put a dent in the state of lawlessness that seems to be norm in Mexico these days. And Mexicans are getting fed up with the situation. I fear that I will not live to see this resolved.
Both candidates were invited a while back. This weekend I listed to a report on two murders in Casa Grande, just east of Phoenix. It was a “cartel” (they don’t even bother trying to identify which one anymore) which lured these guys in, tortured really bad and killed. Stuffed one body in the sewer the other in a septic tank. Those who don’t live in a border state where a lot of smuggling goes on, drugs and human, probably don’t get it. These guys could be in the car next to you at any time. Seriously bad guys who are capable of anything. BTW, they make more money from human trafficking than drugs and have for over a decade.
And they’re even up here en el norte, Ben.
A couple of years ago a Hispanic teen (in a $75K Benz with blacked-out windows) was driving home from a party at 3AM or so and was shot and killed (near Arlington, WA north of Seattle). No mention of his race in the news story, or that he was probably a drug dealer (who was likely killed by the competition).
ONE picture that I found on a local news site revealed something shocking - it showed a 3-4″ diameter group (area through which all of the bullets travelled) in the driver’s window (which stayed intact due to heavy window tint film), about 6″ about the driver’s door handle.
This was done from a moving vehicle, at highway speeds, in the dark.
In other words, by a professional. Not by some idiots spraying lead all over the place, as is typical.
No mention of any of this in the local media, either (I just searched and can no longer find this story at all).
The fact that our media actively avoids covering these kinds of stories is very telling.
How Big Is It ??
Its Huggggge…
Watch those BBC documentaries on You-Tube on Trump’ s attempt to confiscate those Scottish farms from the people who did not want to sell. They were according to Trump, of course, LOSERS.
Can Elon Musk ever make stuff that doesn’t explode, crash, etc?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-01/spacex-rocket-explodes-launchpad
I gotta give the guy points for trying, but after a while, you just have to give it up when it keeps going this way.
FWIW, other launchers also have rockets that explode. Curiously, the Russians seem to have the best track record these days.
Jealous of another self-made rich guy–eh? Can you even replace your spark plugs? Tesla employees ~15,000 hard working, skilled Americans.
Plus he’s lowering launch costs, big time.
SpaceX has landed 5 first stages (if you want to see a cool scene, watch the YouTube video from December 2015 from when they landed it…it’s a friggin’ party atmosphere when they find out that it landed).
Before them, there were 0 such landings. Every other rocket in the history of man that launched stuff into orbit simply crashed into the ocean.
Before you cite Blue Origin’s landings, Blue Origin is focused on suborbital flight. SpaceX is launching sh*t into orbit, which requires more fuel, etc., which is why they need to land the rocket in the water…there isn’t enough fuel left to get back to land.
I don’t think I’d say SpaceX has been a failure…I’d say it’s probably the most successful of the three current companies in which he’s involved.
Solar City is an interesting experiment that may or may not take hold.
Tesla is burning through cash, and has a great product, but they can’t seem to get the manufacturing right.
SpaceX has proven an important part of their plan…landed the rocket, and if they can perfect the re-usability aspect, they have the potential to lower cost of launching stuff into orbit by a HUGE amount, which could end up making them very, very profitable.
Learn to love your serfdom, sheeple.
http://alt-market.com/articles/3000-the-central-banks-are-now-ready-to-launch-their-brave-new-world
“Why? Because at bottom, Facebook (FB ) is just an Internet billboard. It’s a place where the idle mostly idle their time, like millennials in or out of their parents’ basement. Whether they grow tired of Facebook or not remains to be seen, but one thing is certain.”
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-apotheosis-of-bubble-finance-the-once-and-future-faceplant-part-2/
Lol this old lady at my work (dumb as rocks) keeps trying to cheerlead me and another younger guy into buying property because its always the best investment. “Look at how much houses have gained”, I had to remind her of something called INFLATION and rent to the Govt every yr. Turns out she used to be a licensed realtor in NY and MA….Go figure, once a cheerleader always a cheerleader.
LMAO Always trying to recruit.
Its like these folks that say once you leave CA you cant afford to move back, but you can visit.
That works for me. After visiting there for a week I’m more than ready to leave.
Yeah, SF is fine when you hit the nice weather for 4-5 days, but you just hope you can make it without contracting rabies from a crazed homeless person yelling/lunging at you in the metro system.
So Cal is awful. But parts of CA are paradise and it does not get any better!!
Yep, that is true…the relentless California bashing posted here as if the entire state is some sort of monolithic hellhole is ill informed at best. IF you can make things work in one of the nicer parts of the state and can afford it life can be very good. FWIW I moved up to the wine country from S.F. 20 years ago, retired recently, and it is a great area to do the things I love…world class hiking, bicycling, kayaking, motorcycling, etc. all very close to home. and great weather most of the year.
A friend from back east (who has been out here 40 years) put it very well “Anything you say about California (good or bad) is true (somewhere in the state)”, I completely agree with that.
It’s not a monolithic hell hole. But the parts where most people live are kind of hellish. I don’t miss living there. I suppose if I were rich and could live in the cool parts it would be great.
Well put and very true Bluto…
“FWIW I moved up to the wine country from S.F. 20 years ago, retired recently, and it is a great area to do the things I love…world class hiking, bicycling, kayaking, motorcycling, etc. all very close to home. and great weather most of the year.”
Sounds like a jelly doughnut, they’re paying for it you eat it.
ONE! TWO! THREE! FOUR! I LOVE CALIFORNIA!
Full Metal Jacket - Jelly Doughnut Scene - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NP8y63Ms4o - 427k -
Federal Spending in California
September 11, 2015
California Receives More Federal Money Than Any Other State. In FFY 2012-13, California received $343 billion in federal spending. As shown in Figure 1, that amount was more than any other state received and about $100 billion more than the next largest recipient of federal funds,
http://www.lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/131 - 28k -
Your moniker is apt in this case:
“In absolute terms, California receives the largest quantity of federal funding because it has the nation’s largest population.”
“As displayed in Figure 3, FFY 2012-13 federal spending in California was $8,967 per person, lower than the national average of $9,961. Based on this measure, California ranks 37th. In part, this ranking is below average because California has a smaller proportion of retirees.”
“this ranking is below average because California has a smaller proportion of retirees.”
So the other states are receiving Federal dollars that they had already sent to the Federal Government, they have a larger proportion of retirees that have paid into the system and California gets the straight cheese and about $100 billion more than the next largest recipient of federal funds.
Watch this.
California has grown welfare while Texas has grown jobs, and soft tyranny is to blame
Chuck DeVore
Vice President, Texas Public Policy Foundation
3:52 PM 01/21/2014
Enrollment in the two the most common welfare programs during this same six year period tell an interesting story too. While the U.S. job base contracted 1 percent, its overall TANF rolls were virtually static, declining by 4,680 people. California and Texas diverged significantly, however, with California’s TANF and state welfare program rolls swelling 18 percent for a total of 203,318 people. Texas’ welfare rolls shrank by 36 percent or 50,996 people during the same period.
More revealing is the fact that, in 2007, before the onset of the recession, California’s 1.2 million recipients of traditional welfare comprised about 28 percent of the nation’s total welfare caseload in a state with 12 percent of the nation’s population. In 2013, California had a full third of America’s welfare cases, 33 percent.
SNAP use is an entirely different matter. In six years, the number of people in the U.S. enrolled in SNAP skyrocketed 80 percent or 21,167,521 people. By comparison SNAP use in California spiked 103 percent for a total of 2,110,846 people. In Texas, the number of SNAP enrollees was up 67 percent for a total of 1,619,693, considerably below this program’s national rate of increase.
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2014/01/21/california-has-grown-welfare-while-texas-has-grown-jobs-and-soft-tyranny-is-to-blame/#ixzz4J3hnyBnF
“federal spending in California was $8,967 per person, lower than the national average of $9,961. ”
and
“Per person spending on retiree benefits in California is $2,657, much lower than the national average of $3,357″
So there is a $700 per person difference in retirement spending, and a $1,000 difference overall. So, even if you take out retirement spending, CA is using less federal money per capita than average.
Bringing STATE welfare programs into the picture muddies the overall picture. Growth rates aside, CA has about 10% of the nations SNAP recipients, but 12% of the nation’s population.
I couldNt imagine this lady selling anything. DUMB DUMB DUMB.
I told her that Case-Shiller research would disprove anything she was spouting, but she just believes in the , “Well in 1975 it cost $X, and now its worth $Y in 2016″. They never seem to calculate the 40-50% loss in purchasing power in that time?
They also omit: repairs and time spent repairing.
Seriously, depreciating appliances too, and with decreasing quality of goods these days, I would expect to need new washer and dryers and such every 10 yrs? Those do not come cheap, unless you buy the generic $400 special.
A neighbor of my family recently did a new roof ($12k) and remodeled the kitchen for another $12k. Not in an attempt to flip or anything, simply because the cabinets and counters were dated (30 yrs).
Lol this old lady at my work (dumb as rocks) keeps trying to cheerlead me and another younger guy into buying property because its always the best investment. “Look at how much houses have gained”
It always makes so much sense to buy after prices have drastically increased.
‘‘There’s getting to be a glut of inventory at the high end,’ said Nancy Keenan, realtor at Keller Williams Peachtree Road. ‘You may have 100 choices at this point. And that is starting to happen at the lower price ranges. Now, we are looking at a glut of inventory at $600,000 and up.’
‘She worked with sellers of a house in Virginia Highland, bought two years ago for $560,000, and priced it at $639,000. ‘We put it on the market for two weeks. There were 15 showings and no offers.’
Note the surprise that she can’t pocket 70k in profit for two years of doing nothing.
But but but…economics.
“Despite steady growth for more than three four years, Atlanta prices are still lower than their peak and some homeowners who avoided foreclosure are still “under water,” their houses worth less on the market than they owe on their mortgages.”
That’s the way it is in this part of SE Region IV
They put a floor under those crashing prices back in 2009 and 2010, held for a year or so, then started that price run up. But it hasn’t got back up to those 2005 to 2006 prices leaving some people who stuck it out still under water.
Socially and financially, it’s all going down.
Only Trump can save us!
Maybe we’ll get some answers from Hillary’s next hard hitting interview with a State Sponsored Late Night Corporate Comedian.
I just can’t get excited about the Republicrat duopoly wars the way some of you folks do…
I commented on somebody’s Fakebook that while Hillary is a confirmed war criminal, Trump as of yet has only made promises to be a war criminal.
“Only Trump can save us!”
+1 That’s right!
It’s a crying shame this won’t air before Election Day.
‘The Simpsons’ to Skewer Trump University on Upcoming Season
Mr. Burns opens for-profit school in 2017 episode
‘The Simpsons’ promise to continue to poke fun at Donald Trump with a Season 28 episode inspired by the mogul’s disastrous Trump University. FOX
By Daniel Kreps
22 hours ago
After envisioning a nightmarish reality where Donald Trump is president, The Simpsons promise to continue to poke fun at the Republican nominee with a Season 28 episode inspired by the mogul’s disastrous Trump University.
In the episode titled “The Caper Chase,” Springfield’s resident billionaire Mr. Burns starts his own for-profit university and forces his power plant employees – including presumably Homer Simpson – to become professors at the university. Neil deGrasse Tyson, Suze Orman, Jeopardy! champion Ken Jennings and Seinfeld star Jason Alexander will provide guest voices on the episode, which won’t air until well after Election Day in 2017.
…
3 professions with the most arrogant workers
Published: Sept 1, 2016 9:31 a.m. ET
And it’s not lawyers and psychiatrists
Chief executives are No. 2 on the list.
Pictured: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co CEO James Dimon.
By Catey Hill
Reporter
If you work in certain professions, beware: Your co-workers may be egomaniacs.
Fully 74% of private chefs, 72% of chief executives and 65% of art directors say they feel that they are the best performer in their company for jobs similar to theirs, according to a survey of more than 380,000 workers across about 480 professions released this week by compensation research company Payscale.
You might think that professions like lawyer and psychiatrist would land top spots on this list, but instead they are in the bottom half of the spectrum. Instead, these professions round out the top 10 with high percentages of self-important employees: floral designers, bartenders, airfield operations specialists, plant and systems operators, sound engineering technicians and farmers and ranchers.
Even if you don’t work in one of these fields, there’s a high chance you’ll work with someone with a huge ego. Roughly one in four people — across all professions — say they are the top performer in their company for jobs similar to theirs, the survey revealed.
The more money a person makes, the more likely their ego is inflated. Fully 56% of workers who make more than $200,000 a year say they are their company’s top performer in jobs similar to their own, compared with just 3% of those making less than $25,000 a year.
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Lol, as an engineer, my gut reaction to ‘most arrogant workers’ was engineers. We think we’re the best and brightest and God’s gift, haha.
Apparently your profession’s arrogance level lags behind that of art directors, private chefs, floral designers, bartenders, airfield operations specialists, plant and systems operators, sound engineering technicians, farmers and ranchers. Who’d've thunk?
(Albeit some of the job titles on that list sound like they might be staffed by engineers…)
I did have a girl tell me once at a bar, “I work in the industry”, to which it peaked my interest like I wonder what that means? She elaborates that shes a waitress and my response is “oh”, and she asks me what I do, to which I say “engineer for industrial projects”, and she replies with “well that’s boring”. LOL.
After she turns 30 and hasn’t made it in “the industry” your Engineering degree will suddenly be of great interest to her.
It seems like some air has started leaking out of the stock market bubble since the Fed’s annual conclave in Jackson Hole? Maybe it’s time to trot out some spokesmen in the MSM to drop hints that rate hikes are off the table again.
Stop! No bubble!!
Read this load of phooey from an Op-Ed in CNBC. This doofus justifies high prices in SF/NYC/LA because they have super awesome high demand job markets. The rest of the US apparently isn’t seeing bubble prices (despite hard evidence to the contrary)
The MSM “no-bubble” fluff pieces are a repeat of what kind of stories were published in the 2006 leadup to the 2007-08 collapse. History doesn’t exactly repeat itself, but it certainly does rhyme.
Remember this old chestnut?
Housing Bubble - or Bunk?
June 21, 2005
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2005-06-21/housing-bubble-or-bunk
There hasn’t been a buying opportunity in real estate in multiple decades. However it will present itself.
Are you planning any measures to get the government out of the home finance business?
nothing to do with housing but a sad commentary on whats happening…..
by Milo31 Aug 20162,492
I’m leaving London tomorrow, perhaps for the last time, and I can’t say I’m sad. This isn’t my city any more.
http://www.breitbart.com/milo/2016/08/31/london-is-gone/
http://www.urban.org/research/publication/housing-finance-glance-monthly-chartbook-august-2016
The PDF linked here has lots of cool charts/graphs, many of which extend to 2000ish (before the bubble.
Very interesting.
For HA
http://americansongwriter.com/2016/07/song-premiere-coal-men-depreciate/
Where’s he been? I’ve been missing his customary HOUSING PRICE DECLINES posts the past few days…
I am just so overwhelmed and ecstatic that the economy is doing so well. In fact Walmart is cutting 7000 back room jobs. Those 7000 will be jumping for joy too as they head into the holiday season with house and car payments. We do owe Obama, Soros, and Wall Street a debt of thanks.
Walmart - profits before people. We don’t want the gov forcing them to keep all their workers. We want less gov, not more.
Walmart is a moocher getting taxpayer subsidies. Shut it down.
Walmart’s low-wage workers cost U.S. taxpayers an estimated $6.2 billion in public assistance including food stamps, Medicaid and subsidized housing….
Sounds like Disney.
And that’s on top of the hundreds of store closures once their CEO promised workers a fair wage. Costs come from somewhere….
And they are getting their lunch eaten by Amazon, who hires part time labor for their same-day delivery, who hope to get tips when they drop off your six pack of root beer.
Amazon is in a pickle right now, as tens of thousands of containers of their stuff is now in limbo on Hanjin ships that the Port of Seattle (POS, an apt abbreviation, LOL) refuses to let unload (as POS isn’t sure they will get paid to do so).
Dumb racis questions of the day:
Why do Mexican yard care specialists all seem to use those noisy, gasoline-powered leaf blowers? What good does it do anybody to just blow around the leaves in your yard from point A to point B? And why does our landlord fork over money to pay for leaf rearranging services? It seems crazy.
Seriously! And they rev ‘em like they’re Evel Knievel or something. Git a rake muchacho.
I hate when I see people just blowing leaves around a yard or into the street. Why not just fling your excrement into the streets too?
Perhaps food waste? Why not, just as bio degradable?
Sheesh you never see people with an old fashioned rake and garbage bags.
I used a blower, but I blow everything INTO my yard and then mow it to pick up the leaves.
The idiot (race-redacted) landscapers across the street use the blower to push crap out into the middle of the street. I’ve confronted the guy about it several times - he claims that the city will clean the streets - one problem - we live on a private street that the city doesn’t sweep!
“She worked with sellers of a house in Virginia Highland, bought two years ago for $560,000, and priced it at $639,000. ‘We put it on the market for two weeks. There were 15 showings and no offers.’”
B’cuz the market demands less. Kinda like the moron I saw trying to sell his ‘05 Sequoia for 10K when it had over 200,000 miles.
NOT. GONNA. HAPPEN.
“Since that time, I and others have noted that a mysterious “someone” steps in and PANIC buys stocks anytime they begin to break down. The manipulation has been so obvious that a child could see it.
This has propped the markets up. But because NO ONE believes this current rally, the market fails to break higher because there is no real buying power.
As a result of this, the markets have essentially flatlined, staging nearly 39 days of flat price action. You have to go back to the ‘60s to find a more boring period for stocks.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-01/election-year-fix-can-janet-make-it-november
The lack of volatility is pretty strange.
‘The Housing Bubble Is Popping’
Why buy it when prices are falling?
Rent for half the monthly cost anywhere in the country, then buy later, after prices crater for 65% less.
Will stopped-clock renters be able to wait out the Fed’s deliberate asset price inflation scheme and eventually get a decent home at a reasonable price? Or will most of them either die or grow too old to care before the financially engineered housing bubble finally collapses of its own weight?
Only time will tell.
What in the world is their justification for “seasonally adjusted”? What does that even mean?
Real journalists, meet real economists.
“This is the strongest global economy of my business lifetime” — Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, July 2007
HP is my favorite Republican… then Dick Cheney. Such good people.
Salt and pepper?
Think of adjusting a monthly time series to subtract the average pattern of monthly variation from month-on-month changes. If average sales stayed the same year-in, year-out, but spring time sales were at a faster pace than winter time, the monthly sales figures would stay constant after the seasonal adjustment. Only departures from normal monthly variation are supposed to show up in the seasonally adjusted data.
Of course it’s possible the used home sellers would do a bit of extra adjustment to hide a looming crash…
I understand the rationale for “seasonally adjusting” the data. More people buy in some parts of the year than others, and so to smooth the data, they adjust up/down based on the normal level of activity for that time of the year.
HOWEVER, I don’t understand how the year on year data can be different between the seasonally adjusted data, and the non-seasonally adjusted data.
Seems like the seasonality is taken out of it when you compare July to July.
Spot on!
And hence my suspicions about the possibility of additional discretionary adjustments to hide a looming crash…
I wish they would get away from the “index” idea. How about raw data?
New Home Sales (a small portion of the market) was 57k in July 2016 vs. 43k in July 2015. This is Census data. While the numbers are up, they are still not high relative to history.
Existing Home Sales (most of the market) according to the NAR (the entity that reports the data) was 514k (representing 4.7 months of supply) in July 2016 and 551k in July 2015 (representing 4.9 months of supply). The NAR doesn’t give earlier data, so it is hard to know how these numbers stack up to history (and whether they are “adjusted”).
One measure shows an increase in sales (no mention of availability), one measure shows a decline (but less on the market).
Nothing to get excited about one way or the other, IMHO.
Interesting how they chose to index to Y2K = 100.0, after the Housing Bubble was well underway, and systematically ignore pre-2000 data, such as the price series in Schiller’s Irrational Exuberance book back to 1890 that documents long-term average annual U.S. residential real estate prices increasing on the 1%-2% range before the onset of the mania.
“No bubble here, folks…”
I agree. It’s frustrating that the existing home sales data is from the NAR and not somewhere else, or else we would have better historical data.
On the new home front, in absolute numbers, the Census has data going back to 1963. And in that regard, the 57k new home sales isn’t abnormally high for July, even when you look at eras with smaller population (smaller housing base=fewer homes that are completely knocked down).
In 54 years of July new home sales data, 57k is 22nd highest. There were more July new home sales in 1963, some months in the 70’s and 80’s, many months in the 90’s, and the ’00s.
And I think you need to study the Shiller data from his website:
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
And the link to his spreadsheet:
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/Fig3-1.xls
On a nominal basis, home prices rose by an average of:
2.0% per year from 1890-1947 (nominal index value of 3.55 in 1890 to 10.98 in 1947)
2.3% per year from 1890-1975 (nominal index value of 3.55 in 1890 to 25.25 in January 1975).
3.0% per year from 1890-1986 (nominal index value of 3.55 in 1890 to 58.16 in January 1986).
3.1% per year from 1890-1999 (nominal index value of 3.55 in 1890 to 99.59 in December 1999).
3.2% per year from 1890-May 2016 (the latest data he shows has a nominal index value of 182.42).
You can cherry-pick the timeframes and find periods of time where the average annual growth was in your 1-2% range, sure, but the longer timeframes you choose, the more frequent number you find is 2-3%, mainly in the mid-2’s.
“On a nominal basis, home prices rose by an average of:”
Irrelevant.
Since 2000 we have seen historically unprecedented levels of real U.S. residential home price increases which had a long-term average annual rate of real increase under 2% from 1890 through 1997. Look out below when the Housing Bubble finally collapses of its own weight.
Right on time too!!
The “not seasonally adjusted” month-on-month numbers are suggestive of the onset of a major correction. Are the all-cash Canadian and Chinese investors who drove prices skyward perhaps leaving the building?
Couldn’t it also simply be indicative of getting into a less active part of the year (kids back in school–fewer people want to move mid-school year, etc.)?
Right. Taking out predictable changes in the pace of sales is the point of seasonally adjusting the data.
If you understand this, then why are you looking at NOT seasonally adjusted MTM data? that’s pretty much worthless if you want to draw any sort of reasonable, rational conclusion.
It’s because the month-on-month drop seems conspicuously yuuuuuge. Maybe it’s just the highlights Ben added that create this perception.
Also, is July normally a month when home sales drop off of a cliff? I have been under the impression that July is part of the red hot summer sales season, and that significant declines in the pace of sales did not normally take place until the approach of the holiday season.
I guess this explains my doubts about the used home sellers’ seasonal adjustments.
Oh bugger… just when home sales are cratering, it seems automobile sales are heading down the toilet at the very same moment. Too much dry cleaner action? What’s a poor porcine beautician to make of such crappy data?
News
Ford auto sales fall more than expected
11 hours ago
by: Financial Times
Ford today announced US vehicle sales were down 8 per cent year-on-year in August to 214,482 vehicles, steeper than analysts had forecast and heightening concerns that the long running boom in the US auto market may finally be coming to an end.
Auto industry analysts are predicting that other big automakers, all of which will report August new car sales on Thursday, will also report a decline, making it the third month this year that US auto sales had fallen on a year-on-year basis, writes Patti Waldmeir in Chicago.
Kelley Blue Book is forecasting a 2 per cent year on year fall for August to 1.54m, resulting in an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17.3m. “Overall, sales are expected to remain steady in the mid-17 million SAAR range, despite a small drop in volume for August 2016,” said Tim Fleming, a KBB analyst, though he added, “although new-car sales growth is slowing, average transaction prices continue to climb across the industry, rising 2.6 percent in August 2016.”
…
The “Pending Home Sales” is based on newly signed contracts.
Most people who want to close during the summer sign contracts much sooner, which gives them time to inspect, get a loan, close, complete minor repairs, and move before school starts.
From the NAR website:
“The Pending Home Sales Index (PHS), a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. Because a home goes under contract a month or two before it is sold, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads Existing Home Sales by a month or two.”
Irrelevant.
Homeownership rate is at 51 year lows.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-28/homeownership-rate-in-the-u-s-tumbles-to-the-lowest-since-1965
My wife’s piano student was a no-show this afternoon. Seems his mom is “losing it” because they are about to make the leap of faith to buy a five-bedroom home in a gated community nearby. This family bought an overpriced condo circa 2006, just in time for the first wave of Housing Bubble collapse.
I’m really tempted to share the numbers Ben posted above with the mom, just to see what she would say.
Double whammy: The automobile sales bubble is popping at exactly the same moment as home sales are diving. Need mo credik!
Auto Sales Starting to Hit the Brakes
Declines as auto makers provide sweeter incentives signal the industry’s growth may be losing steam
GM had said it expected its August sales to trail competitors because of tight dealership inventory and a 20%-off promotion in July that pulled demand forward.
Photo: Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
By Mike Colias and Anne Steele
Updated Sept. 1, 2016 4:41 p.m. ET
The pace of U.S. auto sales decelerated sharply in August, and deliveries fell 4.2% even as car companies ladled out sweeter incentives, the strongest signal yet the industry’s growth streak is losing steam.
Monthly sales volumes remain at a historically strong level with auto makers consistently selling 1.5 million units a month. If those levels continue, this year’s light vehicle sales could top the 17.5 million sales record set in 2015.
The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate, however, dropped to 17 million last month, according to Autodata Corp. That represents the slowest pace for an August since 2013, and far below the 17.9 million pace set in July and 17.7 million in the same month last year.
August is typically among the hottest months for the auto industry during the year and analysts had anticipated a SAAR in the low-17 million range. Each of the biggest U.S. and Japanese auto makers posted declines except Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, due in part to a continued decline in demand for passenger cars.
…
You have to go back to the 1966-1981 period to see what transpired in the last aftermath of a similar period of historically low risk premiums.
It seems quite obvious why Yellen and company are reluctant to scratch the surface of the bubble with any substantial rate hike pin.
so what us city is still hot,booming,perky
looks,like Seattle is trying to scare small biz away
‘Seattle median rent no longer among top ten in nation
Good news for renters, it got a little bit easier last month’
‘The national median prices of both one and two bedrooms fell simultaneously for the first time this year. 1-BRs dropped 0.8 percent to $1,146 while 2-BRs decreased 1 percent to $1,358.’
‘Seattle followed suit, precipitating the fall out of the top ten. The price of 1-BRs fell 4.4 percent to a median of $1,730 while 2-BRs dropped 3.4 percent to $2,300. Year-over-year, 1-BRs are still up 4.8 percent and 2-BRs are up six percent.’
‘This is the part where we mention that Zumper’s data is drawn solely from the asking rents for the listings on its site, not all available rentals in Seattle and surrounding cities. Therefore, it isn’t a measure of what all Puget Sounders are paying, but it does offer one look at prices that prospective renters in the market are seeing.’
Asking rents also doesn’t count concessions and incentives.
MOAR STOCKS AND HOMES!
Two words.
Rocket Mortgage.
Push button, get slavery?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-01/if-it-s-stability-you-want-then-rent-don-t-buy
This is interesting…I’d be interested in seeing the same data for more countries.
Buying a house on 33-1 leverage is one of the craziest high-risk investments possible, and the U.S. PTB openly encourages such foolisih nvesting behavior. Small wonder so many American families don’t have two nickels to rub together.
Who should these poor families blame? Gov? Their parents? God? Alah?
Themselves. They are victims of their own folly.
Well, it’s quite likely that a large majority of poor adults grew up in poor families.
There is a counter-point to your comment:
Lending money to individuals on a fixed rate for 30 years is insane for the lender, and only exists in the US because of the GSEs–to my understanding 30-year debt financing doesn’t exist anywhere else on the planet.
If you have the opportunity to borrow on a fixed rate in an environment where the central bank policy is to create inflation of 2% or more over long periods of time, it isn’t always, but it can be advantageous to take advantage of that debt to buy long-lived, useful assets.
(it isn’t smart to use that money to buy a boat, or Disney Cruise vacation for your whole family, however).
“…it isn’t always, but it can be advantageous to take advantage of that debt to buy long-lived, useful assets.”
And you are of the belief that Mr. Market is too dumb and inefficient to reflect such considerations in the market price for owner-occupied housing?
At some points in the cycle, and for different reasons, Mr. Market IS too dumb to reflect these considerations. A couple of examples:
1. Mr. Market today is reflecting an assumption that inflation from 2021 to 2026 will be approximately 1.31%. (Bloomberg article from June 30, 2016), while the Fed has said they plan to take actions to move inflation to 2% (at least). Is Mr. Market right?
2. Mr. Market nicely deals with LEVELS of home prices in times of less turbulence, but not very well when there IS turbulence. When prices were falling, and indeed, DID fall to a cyclical trough in prices, people were scared to take out a loan, for fear that their down payment would be wiped out quickly. And so the market valued homes too cheaply, even though cheap debt with long-term fixed rates was available.
I’m glad you took my whole quote in context. I’m not saying I’d go out and buy a home today (unless I was selling my current home, downsizing, and planning to live in the next home for a long time), but I am saying that the 30-year fixed rate debt financing ISN’T ALWAYS, BUT CAN BE advantageous.
We need to expand the balance sheet and put people to work!