September 4, 2016

We’ll Be Talking About This 10 Years From Now

An editorial from the News and Observer in North Carolina. “The question had the best of intentions. A Chapel Hill Town Council member asked, ‘How can the council know if the market for apartments is saturated?’ The short answer is ‘you probably can’t.’ A better answer is ‘you certainly shouldn’t try.’ All of which begs another question, how should a local government evaluate new investment in our community? Such concerns should not be a factor when the Town Council considers applications for new apartment projects. Evaluating supply and demand should be left to the market and the developers risking their money on the investment. There are several reasons for this.”

“Developers have the expertise and real-world experience to best assess the prospects for a project. In the case of rental housing, they collect better data than is available publically. This is their business. They also have more reason to care. After all, it’s their money on the line. That’s not to say they are perfect. This is an inexact science even for the best practitioners. However, in business (as opposed to much government activity) poor decision makers are weeded out, while competency is rewarded.”

“Even if the developer itself fails, a new owner will be found at a price that will make the project viable. Indeed, that is exactly what happened during the recession with Greenbridge (a condo project, but analogous to apartments for this purpose). The original owners lost their investment, but the new owners profitably sold the remaining units at much lower prices.”

“When government intervenes in the process of anticipating needs and efficiently allocating capital to meet them, bad results follow. One only has to look at the economic disorder inflicted when the market was superseded by the Soviet Union’s Gosplan or the Venezuelan Planning Ministry to understand that.”

The Real Deal on New York. “Fort Greene’s sudden logjam of luxury rentals could cut into profits for some of the borough’s top rental developers, ending a price run that’s lasted years. More than a decade after the neighborhood’s rezoning, there are 23 new residential buildings being built (or newly completed) along a 10-block stretch. Together, the buildings will add more than 7,500 apartments, according to the New York Times. Already, landlords are offering concessions to fill their buildings.”

“The amount of apartments is poised to depress prices — or at least put an end to the run-up in prices in recent years, some real estate players think. ‘The market is saturated,’ said Sofia Estevez, executive vice president at TF Cornerstone TRData LogoTINY, which is developing a 714-unit rental at 33 Bond Street.”

The Missoulian on Montana. “A lack of housing options in Missoula is driving up prices here like never before, and that trend has wide implications for the economy. Patrick Barkey, the chief economist at the University of Montana’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research said it’s hard to untangle whether high housing prices create a strong economy or if they are often just a side effect of strong economy. ”

“Barkey said there are two main reasons that ‘lurk in the background’ and aren’t brought up very often. ‘The first is that we have a whole alphabet soup of primarily federal programs to help people buy houses,’ he said. ‘Everything from the Federal Housing Authority loans to Frannie Mae and Freddie Mac. You have to travel to other countries to appreciate how different it is here.’”

“Because lots of people are able to qualify for loans, they are able to buy houses and thus the inventory decreases. ‘When you have a restricted supply like we do in Missoula, it pushes up prices,’ he said. ‘People can get 30-year loans and it tends to show up in price growth.’”

“Barkey said he’s not the only person who has pointed out that housing policy in many cities has failed. ‘Basically, what affordable housing policies in communities across the country do is try to subsidize house purchases for people who can’t afford market prices,’ he said. ‘At least in my opinion, those policies are doomed to failure. Market prices are the problem.’”

“‘Something tells me we’ll be talking about this 10 years from now,’ said Barkey. He said that because the economies in some of the least affordable places in the nation – San Francisco and New York, for example – are doing extremely well, people are often tempted to conclude that higher housing prices equal a better economy.”

The Naples Daily News in Florida. “After a long recessionary dry spell, a flood of new homes inundated the Southwest Florida housing market over the past six years. Now the question becomes: Is this flood about to recede? ‘The new home market in Lee and Collier County has softened along with the rest of the residential market,’ said Mike Timmerman, a Naples-based economic adviser to builders. ‘The supply has increased, and demand has slowed, which is putting pressure on pricing.’”

“Timmerman said he considers the temperature of the current housing market cool and adds ‘the sales pace of new residential communities has slowed over the past 18 months, especially those communities which have similar product and pricing strategies.’”

“And that’s dried up traffic in a way that’s got some in the industry like Bill Fox, division construction manager for Southwest Florida for Frontdoor Communities in Naples, a bit worried. Over the summer, traffic at his communities, which typically run in the $700,000 to $1 million range, has dropped to about 10 visitors a week from about 30 or 40 a week, he said. But the biggest reason for the market cool down, industry experts agree, is oversupply.”

“‘Builders got too exuberant and built too many houses,’ said David Cobb, southern regional director of the new home research group MetroStudy, at a meeting of the Collier Building Industry Association in Naples. Wrongly expecting a significant increase in demand that didn’t materialize, ‘builders got into a supply trap,’ he said, leaving them with too much inventory starting late last year — particularly in Collier County.”

“Cobb expects builders will eliminate excess supply soon by cutting back on building and offering buyers more deals and incentives. But even with incentives, it’s getting harder to get buyers to commit to a new home, said Patty Campbell, division president of GL Homes in Naples. That’s because the existing home market is becoming oversupplied, too. In July, overall existing home inventory rose 36 percent, to 4,801 units from 3,518 units a year earlier, while both closed and pending sales dropped by double-digits, the Naples Area Board of Realtors reported.”

“So while buyers would jump on a new home when the market was hot and supply tight, confident that they’d be able to sell their existing home quickly, now they’re not as sure that will happen. ‘They want to sell their old house before they buy a new one,’ Campbell said.”

“But for now buyers who are ready to commit are benefiting from the excess new home supply, said Rick Fioretti, president of NABOR. ‘In the early part of year you couldn’t get a builder to give you a dollar,’ he said. ‘Now there are incentives, and now they immediately come out to us for support.’ Buyers are typically nabbing around $10,000 to $15,000 in incentives that offset some of the price increases builders had been making when the market was hotter, he said.”

“And some, like Naples medical device distributor Joe Massaro, have done even better than that. Massaro, 54, had been looking for a new home for more than a year when he came across a two-bedroom home he liked at Greyhawk Golf Club of the Everglades. To entice him to buy the $455,000 home, the builder, Pulte Homes, offered him $12,000 off his mortgage costs, an upgrade to the Craftsman-style elevation he wanted, and about $5,000 off his lot costs, he said.”

“Massaro was thrilled. ‘I got an outstanding deal,’ he said. But he’s a little sorry he didn’t wait a little longer. ‘Now I hear they’re giving away free pools,’ he said.”




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94 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-09-04 07:38:00

‘When government intervenes in the process of anticipating needs and efficiently allocating capital to meet them, bad results follow. One only has to look at the economic disorder inflicted when the market was superseded by the Soviet Union’s Gosplan or the Venezuelan Planning Ministry to understand that’

OK, fine and good. So who’s allocating capital here:

‘Barkey said there are two main reasons that ‘lurk in the background’ and aren’t brought up very often. ‘The first is that we have a whole alphabet soup of primarily federal programs to help people buy houses,’ he said. ‘Everything from the Federal Housing Authority loans to Frannie Mae and Freddie Mac. You have to travel to other countries to appreciate how different it is here.’

‘Because lots of people are able to qualify for loans, they are able to buy houses and thus the inventory decreases. ‘When you have a restricted supply like we do in Missoula, it pushes up prices,’ he said. ‘People can get 30-year loans and it tends to show up in price growth.’

‘Barkey said he’s not the only person who has pointed out that housing policy in many cities has failed. ‘Basically, what affordable housing policies in communities across the country do is try to subsidize house purchases for people who can’t afford market prices,’ he said. ‘At least in my opinion, those policies are doomed to failure. Market prices are the problem.’

That’s the thing: these aren’t market prices. They aren’t borrowing the money from the market. The US government, with No-Limits Yellen behind them, id allocating the capital. So yes, bad results follow.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-09-04 07:40:24

Here’s an example:

‘Massaro had been looking for a new home for more than a year when he came across a two-bedroom home he liked at Greyhawk Golf Club of the Everglades. To entice him to buy the $455,000 home, the builder, Pulte Homes, offered him $12,000 off his mortgage costs, an upgrade to the Craftsman-style elevation he wanted, and about $5,000 off his lot costs, he said.’

‘Massaro was thrilled. ‘I got an outstanding deal,’ he said. But he’s a little sorry he didn’t wait a little longer. ‘Now I hear they’re giving away free pools’

Yeah, and next year you’ll be a hundred grand underwater as the builders get more desperate, you’ll toss the keys, and some pension fund or Unca Sugar will take the hit.

You know, we’ve seen this movie before.

Comment by The Crushin' Russian
2016-09-04 07:56:38

All in cost at $500k and $1.5 million over 30 years for what is always a depreciating asset.

‘Thrilling’ indeed.

 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-09-04 07:57:50

12+ fed agencies involved in housing

All got raises as the bubble blew

Comment by Jesus Navas Is My Lord Savior
2016-09-04 08:00:26

I thought Ameribanana Republic was a “capitalist” country. How could that be?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-09-04 14:10:02

Crony capitalist, as sanctioned by 95% of the ‘Murican electorate. There, fixed it for you.

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Comment by Neuromance
2016-09-04 11:15:44

States and counties have multiple methods to funnel money to buyers. Here’s a state level program: http://mmp.maryland.gov/Pages/default.aspx

One of the most expensive counties in the country, Arlington, Virginia, has programs: https://housing.arlingtonva.us/get-help/home-ownership/ - It was either this county or Fairfax that was offering monetary assistance to six-figure households.

The GSEs conforming loan limits are in some cases over a million dollars: https://www.fanniemae.com/singlefamily/loan-limits

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 08:23:37

Is there general agreement at this point that affordable housing policy is an abysmal failure, or do pockets of denial remain?

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-09-04 08:31:59

Oxide is a pocket of denial. Last week we were told that if market forces prevailed, poor people couldn’t afford houses. Yet when most loans were private, 15 year loans were much more common and a house in Palo Alto cost about the same as my home town in north Texas.

Let’s be real; Bernanke said straight out that house and stock prices were to be propped up to create a wealth effect. You propped them up real good Bernanke. So much so you can’t turn on a TV without seeing a house flipping show. I would object to incentivizing speculation in stocks, but to do this with houses should be criminal.

Comment by rms
2016-09-04 10:09:01

“…but to do this with houses should be criminal.”

+1 There’s no shame in gaming-up people’s basic needs.

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Comment by Neuromance
2016-09-04 11:25:49

Last week we were told that if market forces prevailed, poor people couldn’t afford houses.

Poor people still can’t afford houses. It’s just that the infrastructure which purports to put them in houses is now fully insulated against financial losses. It’s the full realization of privatize the profits, socialize the losses, a program which began after the Great Depression.

There’s a large local developer who’s been working on a development effort for years. There’s been massive community pushback and it looked like the issue had gone away. But he just scored a large victory in getting a parcel rezoned to allow the first phase of this new project. Manipulating governments is part and parcel of the FIRE sector’s business model and they’ve become very, very good at it.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 11:51:04

“It’s just that the infrastructure which purports to put them in houses is now fully insulated against financial losses.”

With the Fed in the position of buying MBS directly from the GSEs and immediately burying them on its balance sheet, it seems like the status quo could continue on autopilot indefinitely. No bailouts are necessary when the Fed is ready and willing to eat the losses.

What I want to know is, given how well the Fed’s mop-up operation has worked for housing, why not expand it to include student loans, credit card debt, car loans, and any number of other pesky debts which weigh on American families? Why can’t the Fed declare a War on Debt that would improve the lives of all American families who struggle to pay their bills?

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-09-04 14:11:11

End the Fed.

http://endthefed.org

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Comment by Neuromance
2016-09-04 11:17:51

Is there general agreement at this point that affordable housing policy is an abysmal failure

These policies enrich the FIRE sector and politicians keep getting re-elected at normal rates. By that standard - the true standard IMO - it’s a success.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 11:25:20

True. I was talking about the majority of the American people who are not employed by the REIC. From the perspective of the unholy coalition of politicians and REIC constituents, the policy has thus far been an unbridled success, though the eventual unraveling is destined to be epically painful.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 07:52:12

It’s a good thing San Diegans make so much money by owning homes, as labor market income isn’t enough for most to cover the high cost of living.

Labor Day: In last 10 years, SD food workers see biggest wage jump
By Phillip Molnar
6 a.m. Sept. 3, 2016

Food workers have seen their real wages go up more than any other profession in San Diego County over the last 10 years.

Taking into account inflation, food workers have seen a 15 percent increase in pay, according to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics from May 2015. Their annual mean wage was $26,460 in 2015, nearly $28,000 less than the annual median wage for all county jobs.

In general, wages for San Diego County jobs across all occupations increased 7 percent. But some occupations saw their actual wages decrease. For instance, schoolteachers and other education professions have seen wages drop 5 percent.

Sean Karafin, executive director of policy and economic research at the San Diego Chamber of Commerce, said the wage increase for food workers was largely a function of minimum wage increases.

“It is important to understand that (the) government reported information about total compensation for food workers is drastically off as tips are often not reflected,” he said.

The biggest drop in wages, 7 percent, came in sales occupations, which include retail workers, insurance sales and travel agents. Their annual mean wage was $39,520.

Tony Cherin, finance professor emeritus at San Diego State University, said the drop in wages was likely a function of the recession, when many commission-based retail workers were hit hard.

“People really start drawing back in their buying habits,” he said. “They are just trying to meet things like their electric and gas bill, mortgage or rent. In a recession, you’re not going out to buy a new car.”

Comment by taxpayers
2016-09-04 10:46:01

County,state,fed up average. 15% from 2005 to 2013,privacy up 2%
Per census

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-09-04 08:05:00

‘Developers have the expertise and real-world experience to best assess the prospects for a project. In the case of rental housing, they collect better data than is available publically. This is their business. They also have more reason to care. After all, it’s their money on the line. That’s not to say they are perfect. This is an inexact science even for the best practitioners. However, in business (as opposed to much government activity) poor decision makers are weeded out, while competency is rewarded.’

Again, fine and I hear you. This is how it’s supposed to work. But is it their money? Because I have posted dozens of articles showing Mel Watt at FHFA has backed around a trillion in apartment loans. What would the interest on these apartment loans be if Yellen wasn’t running QE?

This guy is right about the inexact science. Capitalism has a lot of moving parts and the individuals involved are constantly making decisions. When anything outside this process intervenes it’s going to change things. Maybe more risk is taken on. More money borrowed or spent. It could change the object of the market; luxury housing instead of modest. But when we have the amount of intervention our government and central bank are doing, everything is disconnected from the markets. Interest rates, 30 year backed loans, Jeebus even the GSE’s are zombies! How’s that for weeding out poor decision makers?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 08:32:15

If Trump comes up with a serious plan to fix American cities, it could be a game changer. As certain posters here frequently note, Democratic party FSA policies have turned America’s inner cities into crime-ridden poverty trap hell holes from which there is no escape.

Comment by scdave
2016-09-04 09:07:08

it could be a game changer ??

You really think that Trump, or the majority or at least a significant amount of Trump supporters care about inner city problems ?? Its just part of his latest con…Next week will be a different one…He will continue to through crap out to see if it sticks and garners a few more votes…

Look no further than how Trump reacted to the 5 black kids in New York…If he had his way they would be dead…He’s a wealthy, bigoted narcissists…IMO, the only reason there is not a complete outrage from the republican conservatives is because they don’t think he can win and may in fact believe he will lose badly…

Comment by phony scandals
2016-09-04 09:44:14

“the only reason there is not a complete outrage from the republican conservatives is because they don’t think he can win and may in fact believe he will lose badly”

Those RINOs had better hurry up and get their outrage on.

Trump catches up to Clinton, latest Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
Politics | Fri Sep 2, 2016 5:55pm EDT

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN1182PT - 100k -

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-09-04 10:14:50

As long as we’re “looking no further”, let’s look no further than the violence that has been perpetrated on Trump supporters entering and leaving his rallies.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-26/real-threat-violence-left

“He’s a wealthy, bigoted narcissists”

Which makes it OK for a rainbow crowd of violent, sneering thumbsuckers to attack others, because now they’ve been properly labeled.

There ya go, davey. Taking your lines from the despicable “Never Trump” crowd of neocons, who masquerade as “republican conservatives”. You might be a tad more believable if you’d spoken out from time to time against the carnage in the Middle East, perpetrated by these goons.

Speaking of narcissists, did my heart good to see a real narcissist get his comeuppance on the tarmac over in China.

Comment by palmetto
2016-09-04 10:28:44

“IMO, the only reason there is not a complete outrage from the republican conservatives is because they don’t think he can win and may in fact believe he will lose badly…”

Apparently not, because RHINO hero and arch neo-cuck Rich Lowry has already conceded and calls the man “President Trump”.

http://truthfeed.com/video-whoopsie-that-awkward-moment-when-nevertrump-rich-lowry-says-president-trump/20670/

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Comment by scdave
2016-09-04 10:33:57

Trump is a sick man…

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Comment by scdave
2016-09-04 10:35:38

I stand corrected…He is a sick human being…He’s not much of a man….

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Comment by taxpayers
2016-09-04 10:48:22

He gets some good asz

 
Comment by scdave
2016-09-04 10:57:16

Money can buy good asz…Like I said, not much of a man…

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 10:58:02

And that really is what matters most in a U.S. President. Just ask Bill Clinton.

 
Comment by scdave
2016-09-04 11:28:01

Just ask Bill Clinton ??

I will take the period between 1992-2000 any day of the week over what we have now…Like I said, it started with Bush/Cheeney and the hate media…Then double-down with the illegitimate black man…You reap what you sow…Enter Trump…

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-09-04 11:51:54

“I will take the period between 1992-2000 any day of the week over what we have now”

The folks in the Balkans might think differently. Half a million people, wiped out, poof, just like that, due to the Clintons.

 
Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
2016-09-04 15:28:05

That was part of the PNAC plan. It has been the Bill Kristol/Bush/Clinton/Obama policy. Heck, Carter and Reagan also were fully involved in nurturing the Mujahadeen (which became Al Quaeda).

These wars are proxy wars. The real deal is the Cold War is back. The other part of the deal is the U.S. congress and defense agencies and defense companies and bankers are far more powerful in case a Ron Paul became president. Dr. Paul himself would have turned into an imperialist. It is less likely every week that Trump will be elected, but he too would turn into a war mongering imperialist.

 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-09-04 11:17:15

rainbow crowd of violent, sneering thumbsuckers

Gee, I never thought that we’d have to be concerned about thumbsuckers getting violent.

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Comment by palmetto
2016-09-04 11:49:41

Ever see a toddler throw a tantrum?

 
Comment by tresho
2016-09-04 12:42:40

Ever see a toddler throw a tantrum?
Ever see a 6′4″ 250-lb toddler throw a tantrum? :)

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-09-04 13:26:32

“Ever see a 6′4″ 250-lb toddler throw a tantrum?”

No, but I did see a 6′9″ 340-lb sore loser throw one hell of a cheap shot yesterday.

LSU Player Ejected After Cheap Shot 2016 - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfzVYenL51o - 138k - Cached - Similar pages
20 hours ago .

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 13:46:29
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-09-04 14:11:22

Just snowflakes.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 14:21:29

“Just snowflakes.”

That line is a telling sign that you can’t think of anything intelligent to say. I suggest you refrain from revealing that.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-09-04 15:24:58

6′4″ 250-lb toddler

How many of these toddlers are there in your neighborhood?

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-09-04 15:33:59

The theory is that every snowflake is unique. So people who proudly proclaim themselves to be non-snowflakes must be robots without an original idea in their heads.

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-09-04 18:34:40

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 14:21:29

“Just snowflakes.”

“That line is a telling sign that you can’t think of anything intelligent to say. I suggest you refrain from revealing that.”

OK Professor

Who besides the Special Snowflakes at Yale and other college campuses who need “safe spaces” from Halloween costumes and other such nonsense (see Trigglypuff Umass) are actually Trump terrorized by Trump?

Yale University Students Protest Halloween Costume Email (VIDEO …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IEFD_JVYd0 - 200k - Cached - Similar pages
Nov 6, 2015 …

also…

Special Snowflakes at Yale get triggered - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nd4kX66uG1M - 382k - Cached - Similar pages
Nov 7, 2015 ..

and

My TRIGGLYPUFF Encounter at UMass’s “The Triggering” Summed …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIpkdusnIkE - 220k - Cached - Similar pages
Apr 30, 2016 …

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 10:55:55

A marriage of Trump’s anti-trade agenda to his plans to be the law-and-order candidate and to fix America’s inner cities could turn into a central planning economic Frankenstein monster of epic proportions which traditional Republicans would forever regret. I personally doubt a lifelong megascale real estate developer can easily shed his central planning ambitions.

The Wall Street Journal
Trump tells Detroit church: ‘I fully understand the African-American population has suffered’
By John D. Stoll
Published: Sept 3, 2016 4:32 p.m. ET
Trump is accompanied by Ben Carson, met by protesters
JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP/Getty Images
Protesters try to enter the property of Great Faith Ministries Church in Detroit before Donald Trump’s visit.

DETROIT—Donald Trump delivered a call for unity to churchgoers on the west side of Detroit and pledged to listen to African-American voters, kicking off a key initiative in the Republican presidential nominee’s drive to reach out to inner-city voters.

Speaking in brief prepared remarks he read from a piece of paper that he rarely strayed from, he promised economic reform and said “I believe we need a civil rights agenda.” That plan would address the need for justice, employment and trade policies.

“I fully understand the African-American population has suffered,” he said. “I will do something about it.”

Mr. Trump entered the Great Faith Ministries International sanctuary shortly after 11 a.m. EST and proceeded to clap dance, and smile as worship songs were performed. He was accompanied by Ben Carson, a one-time challenger for the Republican presidential nomination and now a supporter, and Omarosa Manigaul, who is the campaign’s director of African-American outreach.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2016-09-04 11:53:02

Cameraman and supervisor (?) comments during filming:
Reuters cuts feed just as Donald Trump is being blessed by Bishop Jackson

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Comment by phony scandals
2016-09-04 13:09:30

That was good thanks T.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 11:54:41

“…remarks he read from a piece of paper that he rarely strayed from…”

Can’t accuse him of relying on teleprompters if he read from a piece of paper…

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Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-09-04 14:40:44

“You really think that Trump, or the majority or at least a significant amount of Trump supporters care about inner city problems ??”

I would guess 5 white Trump followers care but the rest couldn’t care less.

 
Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
2016-09-04 14:53:11

Trump makes his worshippers sign a lifelong non-disclosure agreement. Yes he thinks he is a deity.
http://www.vox.com/2016/9/2/12769084/donald-trump-volunteers

Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
2016-09-04 15:09:34

This is another stunning Trumpism. Even Obama never required his followers of 2008 to pledge such religious worshipping. This god-like status is hereby more applicable to Donald Trump. No person should sign any such paper. What if an elected Trump or even nonelected (the agreement holds regardless) is perceived different than what his worshippers now perceive him? Would they be denied the right to change their minds?

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Comment by MightyMike
2016-09-04 15:38:24

god-like status

Many Obama haters called him the Messiah a few years ago. The reason was never clear.

 
Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
2016-09-04 16:03:56

I accused People of worshipping Obama. I probably have done so on HBB in 2008. That was when the crowd here on HBB was not authoritarian, not neoconservative, not libertarian but for “progressivism.” Hos, Ahansen, Olympia, Polly, Oxide, Big V, Mighty Mike, and so on, in 2012 it was Ron Paul and libertarianism that the HBB crowd wanted. Not walls. Ron Paul never pledged to deport, surveil, drone bomb anyone. And now 2016 the HBB crowd does not want neoconservatism or “progressivism,” but wants Mein Kampf, which actually implemented the same ideas of “progressives” to economics.

I wonder what the new political interest will be of the HBB in 4 years?

 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 10:36:19

I don’t know how this lands, but I cannot recall a more vitriolic election season since I was old enough to notice.

Comment by scdave
2016-09-04 11:00:20

I cannot recall a more vitriolic election season ??

The manifestation of Bush/Cheeney, FOX, Limphose, Beck & Hanity and a few others….

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-09-04 11:40:48

“but I cannot recall a more vitriolic election season since I was old enough to notice.”

I can’t remember anyone being covered for like this.

This Friday Afternoon FBI Clinton Document Dump is Total B.S.

by Rachel Stockman | 4:37 pm, September 2nd, 2016

This isn’t the first time that the FBI’s timing as it relates to the Clinton investigation has drawn scrutiny. You might recall reporters scrambling as Clinton went to FBI headquarters July 4th weekend for her interview. Many pundits were not too pleased that they allowed her such a convenience.

And then just as everybody was getting over their holiday weekend hangovers, on July 5th, FBI Director James Comey notified the public that he would not be recommending charges against Clinton for her use of a private email server.

http://lawnewz.com/uncategorized/this-friday-afternoon-fbi-clinton-document-dump-is-total-b-s/ - 69k -

Why Democrats Buried Their Debates at Times No One Will Watch

by Brendan Bordelon November 13, 2015 11:29 AM @brendanbordelon

Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O’Malley will face off at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa at 8 p.m. local time Saturday — at which point the undefeated Hawkeyes will be an hour into their battle with the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

The entire state of Iowa, first in the nation to voice a presidential preference in the February 1 caucus, will be glued to the game. The debate? Not so much. “It’s just gonna be you, and me, and the pundits, and a few other people watching,” veteran Democratic political strategist Bob Shrum tells National Review.

Top Democrats think it’s no accident the Democratic National Committee scheduled the debate on the night of the big game in Iowa, at a time when fewer voters nationwide will see it. They see collusion between DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Hillary Clinton’s campaign to insulate the Democratic front-runner from the potential challenges and embarrassments of a vibrant debate in front of a healthy audience.

“Do I think that the DNC almost certainly knew that the Iowa game was scheduled for 8 p.m., and now the debate is scheduled for [the same time]? Yes,” says Shrum. “If you want to diminish the audience for the debate, and if you want to protect the front-runner, you would do that.”

With just six debates planned to the Republicans’ twelve, the DNC is already running an unusually sparse slate of contests. Former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley led a campaign to pressure the DNC to add more debates over the summer but was stymied by voter apathy and a recalcitrant Wasserman Schultz.

Less-noticed at the time was that half of those debates would be broadcast on weekends — one this Saturday in Iowa, another on a Saturday in New Hampshire six days before Christmas, and another on a mid-January Sunday in South Carolina.

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/427026/democratic-debates-timing-rigged-dnc-hillary-clinton

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-09-04 14:00:43

I’ll tell you how it lands. Break up, secession, civil war or military takeover. People are just too far apart on their needs and wants, viewpoints, etc. It is always best, and way more peaceful, to let those with separate viewpoints congregate so they can be with others of like mind, and avoid bloody conquest of one by the other.

Break up is how failed empires go. Always.

 
Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-09-04 14:50:56

PB, the kicker is that there is very little foreign policy / surveillance state difference between Hillary and Trump. I made my statement that Hillary is a war monger hawk. But even the top military don’t like the idea of Trump ordering the execution of family members of alleged (key word) terrorists. Hell even if it is true that a relative of someone is a terrorist, it is beyond logic and humanitarian to murder a blood relative. We are supposed to be civilized. Trump is worse than barbaric.

 
 
Comment by MacBeth
2016-09-04 14:30:51

Yes, it could be a game changer.

It’s not as though that those in the inner city are particularly enamored with Obama or other liberals.

To wit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdTihf2_GGM

-and-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIHWgdVFq9s

And there are many, many more examples out there on youtube..

White liberals on this board and elsewhere better start listening. You don’t “own” the black community, and you obviously aren’t dialed in to what is happening.

You only think you know…apparently by chosen affiliation. White liberals living the good life on the coasts are clueless.

That Trump is going into black neighborhoods and in many cases finding approval there, is quite telling. Not of him, but of presumptuous white liberals.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-09-04 15:30:21

Republicans generally get less than 10% of the black vote in presidential elections. Scripted conversations with black pastors are unlikely to change that. Trump is wasting his time.

 
 
 
Comment by rms
2016-09-04 10:48:13

The local dealership also has a large used lot. Starting to see a number of these fugly dark-toned pickup trucks with full bash-guard front bumper, huge tires, rear-window roll-bar, etc., like they’re ready for the Apocalypse and the zombie aftermath. Nothing under 100,000-miles… $30k and up. Wonder if they’ll toss in a pair of tow-hitch nutz?

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2016-09-04 11:15:33

Oilfield workers going broke…

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 11:40:58

We bought a used car last month to accommodate the expanding number of drivers living under our roof. There was no shortage of good choices, as the dealer was flush to the gills with inventory.

Comment by taxpayers
2016-09-04 13:40:14

Good to hear as used cars have been way overpriced
Like many things

 
Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2016-09-04 13:54:27

We get notes on our 1998 Toyota Corolla asking if we want to sell it (three in the last two years.) It’s an embarrassment to be seen in, but it still runs. It’s a third car we really don’t need, so we should take someone up on it.

I guess they want it for parts.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-09-04 10:52:13

The German sheeple voted for globalism with their votes for “Mutti” Merkel, and were duly rewarded with a million new neighbors. Now they seem to be wising up. Unlike Merkel’s Quisling CDU, the so-called “far right” is not about to let the ECB put German taxpayers on the hook for endless bankster bailouts. The can-kicking may finally be running out of road.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-04/merkels-cdu-stunned-election-defeat-anti-immigrant-party-her-home-state

Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
2016-09-04 15:00:41

My international stock funds also vote for globalism. My make of car also votes for globalism.

Comment by MightyMike
2016-09-04 15:35:52

Just think about all of those Americans who start their days with coffee or tea, the vast majority of which is produced in some other country.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-09-04 10:56:15

‘And that’s dried up traffic in a way that’s got some in the industry like Bill Fox, division construction manager for Southwest Florida for Frontdoor Communities in Naples, a bit worried. Over the summer, traffic at his communities, which typically run in the $700,000 to $1 million range, has dropped to about 10 visitors a week from about 30 or 40 a week, he said. But the biggest reason for the market cool down, industry experts agree, is oversupply.”

“‘Builders got too exuberant and built too many houses,’ said David Cobb, southern regional director of the new home research group MetroStudy, at a meeting of the Collier Building Industry Association in Naples. Wrongly expecting a significant increase in demand that didn’t materialize, ‘builders got into a supply trap,’ he said, leaving them with too much inventory starting late last year — particularly in Collier County.’

The hottest market in Florida 2 years ago.

‘typically run in the $700,000 to $1 million range’

As long as there’s no subprime, what’s the problem?

‘5 ways you can buy a house even if you don’t meet income requirements - Natalie Campisi GOBankingRates’

‘Increase qualifying income: As required by the Equal Opportunity Act Amendments of 1976, income that the borrower receives from public assistance programs might be used to qualify for a loan if it can be determined that the income will probably continue for three years or more. This can be helpful in boosting total income.’

‘Here are other sources of income that you might not have considered: Non-occupant borrower income…Public assistance income…Tip income…Unemployment benefits income’

‘Choose a different mortgage: Some mortgages have more forgiving guidelines than others when it comes to income. VA loans, for example, calculate income two ways — the standard debt-to-income method and the “residual income” method, which is much more generous.’

‘For people with lower incomes, a worthwhile option to look into is Freddie Mac’s Home Possible program. To qualify, the borrower must have a yearly income that’s either equivalent to or less than the area median income for the census tract where the property is located. The only exception to this rule is if the property is in a designated underserved area or high-cost area.’

‘Bring in a co-borrower: There’s always the option of bringing in a co-borrower. Extra income allows you to qualify for a bigger mortgage. Co-borrowers can be occupants or nonoccupants. An occupying co-borrower lives in the home with you. A nonoccupant co-borrower is more like a co-signer; this person doesn’t live in the house but is responsible for the payments.’

‘Lenders are more likely to put restrictions on nonoccupant co-borrower loans, such as requiring a higher down payment. Government loans come with fewer restrictions.’

‘Get a subprime mortgage: The term “subprime mortgage” often has a negative connotation because of the housing bubble and financial crisis it’s often associated with; however, subprime mortgages can actually be a gateway to homeownership for some people.’

‘Basically, a subprime mortgage is a home loan with higher interest rates than their prime mortgage counterparts. The higher interest rates are in place to offset the risk of loan default by subprime mortgage borrowers who are risky customers because of poor credit. These mortgages might be either fixed or adjustable rate mortgages.’

‘The benefit of this kind of mortgage is that people with poor credit don’t have to wait as long to own a home. They can repair their credit by paying their mortgage each month, rather than waiting years to repair their credit and then buy a home.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-09-04 11:00:01

‘Get a subprime mortgage’

I smell crow a roastin’ I smell crow a roastin!

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-09-04 12:25:53

Hey Jingle, Rental Watch, I was thinking about ordering a box of these bibs for you:

Example

What do you think? Maybe two boxes?

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Professor Bear
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-09-04 13:47:28

If it weren’t for Moochelle Obama reading the paper about Kaepernick and saying… For the first time in my adult life I’m proud of an NFL Quarterback.

and the Obama Care ambulance speeding past the… SLOW Middle Class Crossing sign after running over 2 middle class victims of Obamacare I would have said it was an off week.

But it wasn’t an off week so thanks for posting.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-09-04 14:14:30

Pleased to be of service, good sir.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-09-04 11:25:40

Another Fed success story: no affordable housing for the proles.

http://www.businessinsider.com/not-one-us-county-has-enough-affordable-housing-2016-9

 
Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2016-09-04 11:28:18

Looks like the Chinese are headed south from Vancouver. I’m sitting on my deck on Bainbridge island, and there is a group of 6 Chinese dudes walking down the street, taking pictures of every house and looking at their phones.

These are waterfront houses, going for 1 to 2 million… soon to become washing machines for dirty money, by the look of it.

It’s a dead end street. If I hopped in my truck right now, I could probably run them all over. Should I do it for The Children?

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-09-04 11:47:16

The most important thing about these Vancouver reports is that the market headed sharply down months before the tax was announced.

Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2016-09-04 12:29:03

Maybe these guys were down on their luck and casing the area for a bit of burglary.

 
Comment by A Comrade of Proven Worth
2016-09-04 14:21:18

Citizen Jones, your deviation from The Narrative has been duly noted, and a dossier on you has been started for when the Comrades of Proven Worth (D) send you and certain other instigators from the HBB who scoff at The Narrative for a much-needed stint in our re-education camps. You will learn to love our DNC talking points and fawning “Everything is Awesome!” MSM coverage of how our Obama-Fed-Goldman Sachs recovery is raising all ships. Now cease and desist with pointing out facts that conflict with or otherwise debunk The Narrative…it’s for the children.

 
 
Comment by Justme
2016-09-04 11:50:24

It was for the children! (TheCentralScrutinizer talking to the judge).

It seems to work for all other kinds of budgetary crimes.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 11:59:56

There seems to be an unlimited number of rats jumping off the Good Ship China these days for Western Shores.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-09-04 12:09:11

‘Another realtor is hammering in the idea that the window is fast closing before Metro Vancouver’s white hot housing market picks right back up since the foreign buyer’s tax was introduced. Vince Taylor with Pilot House Real Estate calls the foreign buyers tax an artificially created window.’

“You have a window of 60 to 90 days, the market wasn’t going to go on forever. At some point markets stop, they go up, they go down.”

‘He says the cure for higher prices are high prices.’

“At some point people say no, I won’t pay this much for a car, I won’t pay $87 dollars for a pair of socks, I won’t pay $82-million dollars for a house and then the price starts to come down.”

“Here is an artificially created window but I don’t believe it’s going to last. The bottom line is markets go up and markets go down, period. There is no one on earth that is capable of predicating the day, the time, or the reason. What we do know for 100% certain is that what goes up must come down and then goes back up again.”

This is the second time in a week I’ve seen a report that didn’t use the Royal “R” on the used house salesman title. What’s the world coming to?

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 12:16:20

I predict Vancouver housing prices will crash.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by patrick
2016-09-04 18:24:52

PBear - they are crashing and they will continue to stabilize. Crash - who knows.

Remember, 15% is an opening bell - if it doesn’t work then maybe 25% !

 
 
Comment by TheCentralScrutinizer
2016-09-04 12:31:59

I would like to see an 87 dollar pair of socks. They must be amazing!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by tresho
2016-09-04 12:48:51

I would like to see an 87 dollar pair of socks.
I have a pair around here that I’d sell you for that amount. They do need washing, though.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-09-04 11:35:42

‘Retail sales in the city of Aspen increased 4 percent in July compared to the same month last year, according to a city of Aspen consumption tax report. The industries experiencing the largest declines were automobile (36 percent), miscellaneous (19 percent) and luxury goods (12 percent).’

‘Housing and Wheeler real estate transfer tax collections for July 2016 were down 2 percent and flat, respectively. On an annual basis, collections for real estate transfer taxes are tracking 42 percent and 43 percent behind last year’s figures to date.’

 
Comment by Larry Littlefield
2016-09-04 11:36:44

“The market is saturated.”

No it isn’t. There is enormous latent demand.

The market is only saturated at rent and price levels high enough to pay off the construction loan.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 12:11:54

Any thoughts on how soon the central bankers’ post-2008 period of extraordinary accommodation might end?

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 12:17:41

Plunging yields cost investors a half a trillion a year in yearly income
By Ellie Ismailidou
Published: Sept 3, 2016 5:10 p.m. ET
Fitch says income-reliant investors, like pension funds, are taking the biggest hit

The frenzied bond rally has a side effect: plunging yields, which are costing investors billions in lost income.

As government-bond yields have tumbled to all-time lows, and in many cases negative levels, investors are losing over $500 billion in annual income—a dangerous side effect of a frenzied global bond rally that has been fueled by insatiable demand for yield.

“Relative to yields available in 2011, global investors are forgoing over $500 billion in annual income on $38 trillion in currently outstanding bonds as a result of the collapse in sovereign yields,” said Fitch Ratings in a report released late Wednesday.

The devastating effects of rock-bottom and subzero yields may not be immediately obvious because returns in bond portfolios have been high, as the relentless bond rallies, fueled by central-bank purchases, have driven bond prices to historically high levels. In the past year, valuations have spiked for all major 10-year government bonds and are at their highest level in history, a BlackRock report showed in July—yet investors’ demand remains strong even at those inflated values.

“Many investors have already seen large gains in their bond portfolios,” Fitch wrote. But for “income-reliant investors” such as insurers and pension funds, the effects have been devastating.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 13:27:49

Telegraph Business
AEP: Dollar hegemony endures as share of global transactions keeps rising
The world has never before been so dependent on the dollar and the US Federal Reserve
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
1 September 2016 • 7:11pm

The US dollar is tightening its grip on the global financial system at the expense of the euro, entrenching American hegemony and rendering the US Federal Reserve more powerful than at any time in history.

Newly-released data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) show that the dollar’s share of the $5.1 trillion in foreign exchange trades each day has continued rising to 87.6pc of all transactions.

It is the latest evidence confirming the extraordinary resilience of the dollar-based international order, confounding expectations of US financial decline a decade ago.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-09-04 13:54:02

Opinion: These 3 charts explain the terrifying math behind pension funds’ shortfall
By Amit Sinha
Published: Sept 3, 2016 6:50 p.m. ET
We’re burying our heads in the actuarial sand of high expected returns

The Chicago Tribune recently wrote about how the decision to reduce the expected-return assumption from 7.5% to 7.0% for the Illinois Teachers Retirement System resulted in the governor calling for approximately $400 million in additional taxes.

While the political positioning behind this small move of 0.5 percentage point is fascinating, it more importantly brings to the forefront the issue of how large future obligations are, and why there is a lot of fear and an incentive to hide.

If reducing the expected return assumption from 7.5% to 7.0% results in an additional $400 million- 500 million a year of taxes, then moving the liability discount rate to something closer to a risk-free rate of 3% may imply additional $5 billion in additional contributions (Note: the actual number is likely several times higher than this – see the illustration below for some simplified math).

The dilemma we face is that we have made future promises and don’t have enough money set aside today to pay them. Therefore someone has to make up the shortfall. Instead of trying to determine who makes up the shortfall, we try to bury our heads in the actuarial sand of high expected returns.

 
 
Comment by tresho
2016-09-04 13:00:21

Extreme service labor shortage extends beyond seasons (Traverse City Michigan).

TRAVERSE CITY — Store manager Krystina Magnuson stuffs a “Now Hiring” flyer into each bag of food ordered at the Taco Bell on East Front Street.

Each leaflet is personal for Magnuson, whose work weeks have become as long as 80 hours during the past few months to compensate for a severe labor shortage at the fast food restaurant.

“It gets hard when you don’t have enough people,” she said. “I don’t get paid for anything beyond 50 hours a week, but I’m still required to come in and cover what needs to be covered.”

Summers always required long hours from Magnuson, who has worked at Taco Bell locations in the area for nine years. But the demands came to a head in July when she started managing the Taco Bell on East Front Street. Only 11 employees operate the location meant for a staff of 30.

I just returned from spending a couple of weeks in the area, staffing shortages were pretty obvious at the lower end eateries. Higher cost eateries had plenty staff.

Pancheri [district manager of Taco Bell locations in Traverse City, Cadillac and Ludington] is short-staffed by about 30 employees among his four Traverse City franchises. The shortage has taken a toll on his business and on his employees.

“It’s affecting all aspects of service,” he said. “We have a high rate of turnover because we’re so short-staffed. It’s so chaotic, so everyone’s busting their butt and ends up quitting.”

The shortage forced Magnuson to limit hours at her location. The Taco Bell, which once stayed open until 1 a.m. on weekdays and 3 a.m. on weekends, now closes at midnight on weekdays and 1 a.m. on weekends. She has, on rare occasions, had to shut down the front counter or drive-thru when she didn’t have enough employees to work both.

“When it gets down to only three people working, we have to limit the flow of customers,” she said. “It all really takes a hit on how much sales we make.”

More money is crucial in an area struggling with a worsening shortage of affordable housing.

“I’m sure everywhere is struggling because these are low-paying jobs and the cost of living in Traverse City is ridiculous,” Pancheri said. “You can barely afford rent on $15 an hour, much less $10 an hour.”

I visited the McDonald’s in W. Yellowstone MT 10 years ago, where they solved their revenue problem by doubling the standard McD prices, no free WiFi either. Would-be customers who didn’t like those prices were free to go elsewhere. Twarn’t really any “elsewhere” nearby.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-09-04 14:08:58

Millions of amoral, stupid ‘Muricans who are members of the 99% choose to believe that Crooked Hillary is “fighting for us.” How adorable, say the oligarchs.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-04/show-hillary-love-rothschilds-urge-she-charges-2700-question-10000-family-photo

Comment by aNYCdj
2016-09-04 20:25:49

the only reason i can come up with to vote for hillarie is she knows all the dirty sex secrets of the world leaders and would be able to blackmail them if need be.

 
 
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