The Pain Doesn’t Stop At The Very Top
The Real Deal reports from New York. “One57, the alpha dog of the last residential boom, now has its tail firmly between its legs. ‘Escape from New York,’ an LLC that purchased a pad at Extell Development’s signature project for nearly $32 million in 2014, has gone into contract to sell the pad at what’s likely to be at least a $7 million loss, given that its last asking price was $25 million. One57 was once the ultimate symbol of the craze for high-end luxury apartments, and holds the record for the priciest closed sale in the city, at north of $100 million.”
“‘Escape from New York’ was just one of many investors that attempted to profit from appreciating prices. It purchased unit 62A, which spans nearly 4,500 square feet, for nearly $32 million, or north of $7,000 per square foot. It then tried to flip it soon after for $38.9 million, or more than $8,600 per foot. But, faced with declining demand for ultra-high-end homes and increased competition from new product, the seller slashed the price of the property several times. In May, the asking price was slashed to $25 million, or a shade over $5,500 a foot. It’s a far cry from the prices of previous years, and is yet another sign of the times.”
From Mansion Global. “Unit 62A’s trajectory is far from isolated. As the high-end condo craze in New York City eases and the market continues to cool off amid an oversupply of apartments and lower demand, other units in the same luxury tower overlooking Central Park—which briefly held the title of the tallest residential tower in the city—have recently sold at a loss. Apartment 64B changed hands in July for $21.5 million, a 23.5% discount from its original asking price. In December, unit 51C sold at $17.75 million and unit 44C at $17 million, 6.55% and 11.65% less than what they initially listed for, respectively, according to StreetEasy.”
“And some apartments are simply not moving. A three-bedroom unit at One57, 65A, sold for $29.3 million in 2014. It re-entered the market in October of 2015 at $35.5 million. After several cuts that have brought its current price to $29.5 million, it is still awaiting a buyer. Price reductions are not only happening at One57 but at other prime properties as well.”
“Prices for luxury residential real estate in Manhattan declined for the 10th consecutive month in July, marking ‘a point of oversaturation,’ said Krishna Rao, an economist at StreetEasy. Then there’s the full-floor condominium on 515 Park Avenue that is now selling at $10.5 million, a 27.5% discount from its asking price a year ago. The unit overtaking the 18th floor was listed in September of 2015 at $14.5 million.”
“Jonathan Miller of real estate appraisal and consultancy firm Miller Samuel Inc. said that Manhattan luxury sellers are coming to the realization that they need to price their properties according to the new market condition, which is weaker than a few years ago. ‘In a market segment where price trends are somewhere between flat and declining, an overpriced listing, by definition, will not sell,’ Mr. Miller said.”
From Bloomberg. “The pain doesn’t stop at the very top. According to new data from listings website StreetEasy, the luxury market still has some adjusting to do with price cuts now spreading from just the most expensive apartments to other price tiers. When looking at the second highest tier of the price bucket, or sales just below the top 20 percent of the market but above the bottom 60 percent, the slowdown is increasing at an even faster clip. ‘The luxury market was the first price segment where we began to see slowing price growth, and now we’re seeing other price segments following suit,’ Krishna Rao, StreetEasy’s economist added.”
“According to Rao, much of the slowdown can be attributed to a huge boom in supply as developers rushed to build luxury condos in 2014, as well as a stronger U.S. dollar that made it more expensive for foreign buyers to snatch up U.S. real estate.”
“‘It may be that economic and political uncertainty have discouraged domestic luxury buyers, while a strong dollar kept foreign buyers at bay and that they will both return to the market when their concerns are assuaged,’ Rao said. ‘But it may also be that prices and amenities in these luxury buildings have reached an unsustainable level and we are going to see some units languishing on the market and others quickly falling in price as they struggle to find buyers.’”
From Curbed New York. “Earlier this summer, a report by the New York Times suggested Brooklyn’s rental market was becoming over-saturated. Now, the latest round of market reports seems to back up that claim. According to Elliman’s report for the month of August, high inventory in Brooklyn has caused a declining median price and an increase in landlord concessions. Across the board, the New York rental market has more inventory than it does demand, according to Douglas Elliman’s numbers whiz Jonathan Miller.”
“Citi Habitats also tracked a high number of landlord concessions compared to last year. Per its report, 19 percent of rental transactions offered a free month’s rent and/or payment of the broker fee to entice new tenants in August. That percentage is unchanged from July, but it’s significantly higher than August 2015, when only 7 percent of leases offered a move-in incentive. Citi Habitats president Gary Malin says this about the rising incentives: ‘The simple fact is the rental market was overheated and due for a correction—nothing extreme, but enough to get landlords and would-be tenants back on the same page.’”
‘an LLC that purchased a pad at Extell Development’s signature project for nearly $32 million in 2014, has gone into contract to sell the pad at what’s likely to be at least a $7 million loss’
Anyone notice we don’t hear the term “safe deposit box in the sky” much anymore?
A safe deposit box in the sky with $400,000 in yearly taxes and HOA fees…
Geeze, the headline writes itself: “Escape from New York can’t escape from New York without taking $7 M loss…”
The market softens for the selling prices of units, and…land values fall.
Prices drive land values, not the other way around.
Where ever you go, there you are.
You’ve stated that high rents are due to high land prices, and the low interest rates have contributed to “value-add” apartment projects that have taken lower rent apartments off the market (without commentary on how low interest rates also allow supply to be added more easily).
I’ve contended that lack of supply has driven rents higher, and those higher rents have allowed developers to pay more for land…and even with higher land prices, low interest rates have contributed to an ability for developers to make projects “pencil”–driving an increase in supply.
And now we have a test of my theory. An increase in supply has arrived in some markets, and the effects of that supply increase has been a softening of rents, and now you note one example of land values falling.
If rents “softening” actually results in declines in rents, and not just a flattening (still an “IF” in my view), then the next thing we will see is a slowdown in multifamily starts–but there will be a lag before we see it. Land prices won’t adjust immediately (they are sticky on the way down), but land that is priced too highly relative to construction costs and rent won’t sell, and this will contribute to a slowdown in multi-family development.
However, I suspect that broadly, we won’t see rent declines…we will likely see rents decline in some markets, but not overall…we are still building too few housing units for that to occur. On a net basis, I suspect that we will see multifamily starts continue at a high level, but fewer in big cities. In part this is because investors are getting more comfortable with buying multi-family properties outside of urban core locations.
And I expect a snarky response like ‘Click’. Fine. The supply/demand/rent dynamics are playing themselves out for all to watch at this point.
The click thing is an inside joke going back to 2005. Supply and demand is rooted in human nature. When people demand more of a thing when prices rise, it suggests speculation. It’s irrational outside of speculation. When enough market participants are speculating, it can result in a mania. Take these luxury NYC condos. Two years ago it was reported some towers we 95% vacant at any time. It was explained away: it’s an investment. It’s parking money. These people can afford to have housing they don’t use. What they were really doing was speculating and it became a bubble that has popped.
What is the real demand for a 5, 15, 30 or 100 million dollar condo? Not much as it turns out. As the Indian guy said the other day, they over-estimated the number of homeless billionaires. Supply and demand doesn’t apply to bubbles, it simply exposes it by its absence.
Rental Watch: And now we have a test of my theory. An increase in supply has arrived in some markets, and the effects of that supply increase has been a softening of rents, and now you note one example of land values falling.
The situation could be that it’s supply and consumption-based demand driving the prices up and now down, coinciding with an increase in supply. No speculative dynamic at work in this scenario.
On the other hand, it could be speculative-based demand which was driving prices higher, as in a classical mania, and more supply is the pin that will prick the speculative demand balloon. High speculative dynamic at work in this scenario.
There’s probably a spectrum between the demand types. There is no doubt some level of consumption-based demand. And no doubt some level of speculation-based demand. But mania’s are real - see Isaac Newton who invented calculus and discovered gravity - lost a bundle on the South Sea bubble. Very sharp guy who may not have appreciated the nature of a speculative mania.
IF prices are driven by pure consumption demand, then Rental Watch, you’re right - prices probably won’t decline much as the market slowly shifts towards equilibrium.
IF prices are driven by pure speculative demand, then as in any other speculative item, there could be significant volatility - drop - in the prices - as those holding the assets seek to realize their profits and exit their positions.
Then, the other big buyer in the market comes into play, governments and central banks, the role of which many of us did not appreciate the last go-round. Is there anything they can do to limit any price reductions? They’ve fired a lot of their ammunition. But Wall Street is clever - they may well come up with some new policy yet, for governments and central banks to implement.
Interesting stuff.
I think there are threads of truth in all of our comments.
I personally think markets are most screwed in locations and property types where the demand is NOT based on consumption (consumption=living in the house/apartment as your primary residence).
That describes the $5+ million dollar purchase by a foreigner who won’t live in the unit (or rent it out) perfectly. That is a market pulled and pushed around by speculation.
Markets that will react most predictably are secondary and tertiary markets, where there is much less influence from these types of buyers, and today credit, while cheap, is not driving these markets as much as the supply/demand dynamics.
And that is why I focus so much on vacancy rates, if you have really high rental vacancy and owner-occupied vacancy, it suggests non-consumption based demand–ie. a speculative market. However, when you look at the Census data, that does not broadly appear to be the case (although it might very well be true for $5MM condos in NYC).
And I know that some measures of vacancy are still high…however, I really think you need to carve through the various sources of the vacancy to see if the vacant units are likely to ever be available in areas with employment, to people who need a home.
Supply and demand doesn’t apply to bubbles, it simply exposes it by its absence.
All else equal, you are right, higher prices should result in less demand.
However, my point is that all else is not equal…we are building too few homes, and so supply relative to demand is actually declining, which is a reason (perhaps not the only reason, but one of the reasons) prices are rising.
Those ultra-high residential towers in Midtown Manhattan look so ugly and out of place.
New York used to be scary, dangerous, and fun. That place lost its soul.
Tell me about it. Growing up there I used to love to go to Times Square just to people watch.
Of course there were the stray bullets you had to watch out for. “New York Hummingbirds” we called them.
Escape from New York LLC
http://opendatany.com/corporation.php?id=4215154
with an address at 187 Umpawaug Rd., Redding, Ct., another extremely expensive place - sold for $10 million in 2012
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/187-Umpawaug-Rd_Redding_CT_06896_M34877-90130
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/187-Umpawaug-Rd-Redding-CT-06896/57340553_zpid/
wonder what the back story is, a meth lab, murder, poor construction and has black mold all over?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrEmF4SK3T4
http://www.today.com/home/reba-mcentire-s-nashville-mansion-market-see-inside-t102599
“Across the board, the New York rental market has more inventory than it does demand.”
Oh there’s demand allright. Lots and lots of demand. But not at these rent levels. Not at any tier.
Demand from young people living not only more than one to an apartment, but more than one to a room. Struggling despite being employed. Some may be starting to leave.
https://larrylittlefield.wordpress.com/2016/08/14/the-u-s-labor-force-running-away-from-metros-with-high-costs-of-living/
Meanwhile, I have one child, a recent college graduate recovering from a hip operation, looking for a job and another one, now living in Chicago, who might move back next summer depending on employment. One is living at home, and one expects to. Both would move out on their own if it were affordable.
“Oh there’s demand allright. Lots and lots of demand. But not at these rent levels. Not at any tier.”
That’s called a word play on “no demand”.
Leprosy in CA? Moar fundamental transformation!
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1748956/primary-school-kids-struck-down-with-biblical-flesh-rotting-skin-disease/
“Possible” “May have”. Equivocate much?
We have Zika virus here as well. Don’t come to California unless you don’t mind catching a dreadful disease.
Sucks that people have to find out about this from a UK tabloid, because the MSM is too busy shielding a hacking whore from the slings and darts of election season.
No, they don’t want to create a panic! Well, that’s what happens when you import diseased third worlders and turn them loose without so much as a medical exam. And why not? It’s all good. Find something wrong and it’s off to the hospital, courtesy of the US tax slaves.
The Beatles: Yesterday lyrics (COVER SONG) - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbKqt77P-gs - 246k -
Leprosy, all my skin is falling off of me.
I’m not half the man I used to be.
Oh, Leprosy came suddenly.
‘Citi Habitats president Gary Malin says this about the rising incentives: ‘The simple fact is the rental market was overheated and due for a correction’
This is an interesting statement. How does a rental market get overheated? Does he mean rents got too high? How exactly can that happen (supply and demand and all that)? Because if rents can get too high in Manhattan, it might be the same in many markets where rents have exploded for years.
‘Apache Corp. said it made a “significant” discovery in a Texas shale formation that holds enough crude oil to supply every refinery on the U.S. Gulf Coast for a year. The Alpine High discovery in West Texas contains an estimated 3 billion barrels of oil and 75 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, Apache said in a statement on Wednesday. The asset is in the Delaware Basin, a subsection of the Permian Basin.’
I’m surprised there isn’t more excitement about this. It’s like they discovered a years worth of fuel. And it isn’t in some far flung unexplored part of the country. It was right under the oil industries feet all along. Like I said years ago, back in the 80’s the more they looked, the more fuel they discovered. There isn’t a oil shortage in the US and there never has been. BTW, they say it’s good at $50 barrel.
I read they put together 300,000 acres for $1,400/acre (leased drilling rights I’m sure). Think of how many jobs this will produce. But we have fools dumping $5,000/sq foot for air boxes in New York no one has ever lived in.
This is great stuff.
F— OPEC.
I love how OPEC keeps threatening to cut production, and the world is on pins and needles…in the meantime, in the US, producers are producing when they can make a profit…if OPEC cuts production, the US will quickly ramp up in response to higher prices.
Poor, poor OPEC, no one is letting them gouge the world for energy anymore.
“There isn’t a oil shortage in the US and there never has been.”
Amen, brothah! It’s all been a phony, manipulated market for decades. Think of all the $$ generated in terms of shipping, ports, the auto business with fuel efficiency scams and parts, shorts and longs, Arab terrorism, the dollar-oil financial cock-up, failed solar, etc. You name it, it’s mind-boggling.
Oh, and fracking. Let’s not forget fracking.
Or drilling in environmentally sensitive areas and putting the oil in a giant pipeline that has to be maintained. We should remember that the US government sits on hundreds of millions of acres in the western US. How many resources do they keep locked up, while we send aircraft carrier groups half way around the world to protect Arab dictators? Governments of various sorts control over 80% of Arizona’s land.
“We should remember that the US government sits on hundreds of millions of acres in the western US. How many resources do they keep locked up, while we send aircraft carrier groups half way around the world to protect Arab dictators?”
Oh, RIGHT, I plumb fergot! The military-industrial complex! How much have they made off the oil scam, with all the “interests” in the Middle East?
How did this come about? Where and when was it decided? I don’t rightly know, but a little birdie tells me some time after WW2. I’m not sure whose grave to spit on, FDR’s or Truman’s. Maybe both.
I can understand England having interests in the ME, but even then, there was the North Sea. But you just KNOW there was a confab after WW2 that grossly affects us to this day. And there was Prescott Bush, right in the the thick of it.
The most credible theory is that having a great deal of influence over the Middle East was a way to have influence over much of the world. If Texas could produce enough oil to supply the world, it might be cheaper to do that.
Probably true. Even more so when it comes down to the whole petro-dollar construct. And that goes along with my theory that the seeds of globalism were sewn with WW2. Maybe earlier, but definitely started to get ramped up then. UN, all that sort of thing.
And no doubt the price that Washington extracted from Europe involvement was NATO and other vassalage. And look at Europe now, what a shambles. And this time they can appeal to Putin for relief, on account of we’re spent.
And this also brings to the fore the idea that, indeed, true nationalism might be far less brutal than globalism. It would seem that what masquerades as nationalism is in fact, globalism. Hitler is supposed to be the poster boy for the dark side of nationalism. But, did he not really seek globalism under the German flag? And did Washington, in fact, go to war because Germany was cutting in on our action, as George Carlin mordantly pointed out?
This explains some of it:
‘The EU – A CIA Covert Operation’
I will read this later, more in depth, and I thank you for it. I missed that one. CIA, there it is. And in fact had its roots in WW2 under the auspices of the OSS, if I recall correctly.
And now you have the CIA backed “rebels” in Syria fighting the Pentagon backed “rebels”. What a bloody clusterfark.
CIA has done irreparable harm to the country and indeed the planet.
Hitler is supposed to be the poster boy for the dark side of nationalism. But, did he not really seek globalism under the German flag?
He pursued nationalism and globalism at the same time, as well as imperialism.
One theory was “we want to use up all of their oil before we do ours.”
Advancements in technology result in being able to find and extract resources more effectively than in the past.
There is A LOT of natural gas out there. I expected Ogolfer to fund some vehicle networks using it, but noooo - solyndra and other ponzi concepts were preferable to him and his cronies.
I wonder if the extraction of all that will make Texas as earthquake prone as California?
From Bloomberg. “The pain doesn’t stop at the very top. According to new data from listings website StreetEasy, the luxury market still has some adjusting to do with price cuts now spreading from just the most expensive apartments to other price tiers. When looking at the second highest tier of the price bucket, or sales just below the top 20 percent of the market but above the bottom 60 percent, the slowdown is increasing at an even faster clip. ‘The luxury market was the first price segment where we began to see slowing price growth, and now we’re seeing other price segments following suit,’ Krishna Rao, StreetEasy’s economist added.”
How soon until the price slashing spreads from apartments to other market segments, such as single family?
Got contagion?
That wouldn’t be contagion, except for property owners who paid too much and their lenders.
It would be an easing of an affordability problem.
Bring it on. Everyone wants cheap gasoline to goose consumer spending, but no one wants cheaper rents?
Because dropping the price from $1,199,000 to $1,099,000 on 6/3 wasn’t enough, dropping by another $5,000 three weeks ago is gonna bring the buyers out in swarms:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2825-E-Alameda-Ave-Denver-CO-80209/13349401_zpid/
Sold on 4/19 for $650,000, listed for $766,000 on 8/31, and cut to $759,000 six days ago:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1018-S-Race-St-Denver-CO-80209/13355096_zpid/
Bought on 2/27/13 for $500,000, listed on 8/12 this year for $785,000, dropped to $769,000 two days ago, you’re gonna have to try harder than that:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/659-S-Race-St-Denver-CO-80209/13352598_zpid/
Listed on 6/3 for $1,295,000, dropped to $1,249,000 on 7/20, dropped to $1,199,000 on 8/12, and cut $100 to $1,198,000 two days ago.
That last $100 was what it took to convince me. Honey, get the checkbook! We better act fast on this one:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/100-S-University-Blvd-UNIT-12-Denver-CO-80209/13349360_zpid/
P.S. Realtors are liars.
Typo on the last one, should be $1,198,900.
Maybe I should contact the seller and make an offer of $1,198,899?
>> Typo on the last one, should be $1,198,900
Last sold in Aug 2005 for 1,250,000. Already taking a bath even without years of upkeep and prop taxes factored in.
But hey, it’s close to “Wash Park”, as if that somehow makes it worth millions of dollars. Wash Park is where all the coke dealers used to go to find clients when I lived there.
Have you been talked to by our resident DebtDonkey about your posting of falling housing prices? You’ll be talked to soon.
Let’s take a trip to Boulder. My Realtor to me that Boulder is special.
From $980,000 to $950,000 to $899,000 to $850,000 to $799,000, and that’s only since 6/14. This shack’s price is falling down the stairs like a Slinky:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2448-Pine-St-Boulder-CO-80302/13180267_zpid/
Two price cuts each only a week apart, what were you saying about red hot?
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2244-Spruce-St-B-B-Boulder-CO-80302/2097495699_zpid/
Studio cabin on 6 acres for $195,000, I hope your homeless neighbors living in the National Forest don’t burn it down:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/585-Primos-Rd-Boulder-CO-80302/2098095684_zpid/
From Six Million Dollars in 2012 all the way down to $2,999,000 just four days ago. They couldn’t even rent it for $7,000 a month. Remember the lyrics from that Aimee Mann song in the movie Magnolia? So just, give up…
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4322-Sunshine-Canyon-Dr-Boulder-CO-80302/81962022_zpid/
Cut from $3,995,000 to $3,795,000 six days ago, all glass house includes a lifetime supply of dead birds in your yard:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1035-5th-St-Boulder-CO-80302/13195974_zpid/
Next stop, Aspen. It’s gonna be a real bloodbath
That glass house is priceless. Can you image the “People who live in glass houses…” saying by EVERY. SINGLE. VISITOR.
Does Cameron’s dad have the vintage Ferrari parked in a garage next door?
WTF… I just notice that Colorado property Tax is peanuts… no wonder people in Denver are paying those prices..
Hey look, it’s the million dollar 2BR condo that nobody wants! It even has assigned parking, the listing says “A great option in today’s market” whatever that means:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/305-S-Aspen-St-APT-3-Aspen-CO-81611/2097465507_zpid/
They didn’t want your worthless patch of dirt for $25,000,000, and they won’t want it for $21,500,000 either:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/Tbd-Red-Mountain-Rd-Aspen-CO-81611/2098284385_zpid/
From $33,500,000 to $26,500,000 on 6/29, and this thing is just sitting there, waiting for non-existent buyers:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/0955-Little-Woody-Creek-Rd-Woody-Creek-CO-81656/2103066577_zpid/
It took you almost a year to realize that nobody wants a $50,000,000 ranch? Well, guess what, nobody wants a $39,900,000 ranch either:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3448-Woody-Creek-Rd-Woody-Creek-CO-81656/2101571103_zpid/
Listed at $23,500,000, listing removed, re-listed at $23,500,000, cut to $19,500,000. This home has been featured in numerous magazines… oooh, magazines!
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/700-Nell-Erickson-Rd-Aspen-CO-81611/58749953_zpid/
Another one cut from $50,000,000 to $39,500,000. I don’t care if liquid cocaine flows out of the water taps, nobody wants it:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/41-Popcorn-Ln-Aspen-CO-81611/79586811_zpid/
Nice houses. Where are all the machine-gun bunkers to protect them?
Buying a 20, 30, 50 million dollar house in the forest would put a huge target on your back. Everyone knows where the rich people live. You’d have to spend a lot of money on 24×7 security staff. Totally other level.
I’ll tell you this. If I’m blowing 39mill on a house it sure as heeeel ain’t gonna be on a street called flipping “Popcorn Lane”!!
LOL. Ain’t that the truth. Would be the kiss of death wouldn’t it?
Today, Dell and EMC finished their merger and announced 2,000 to 3,000 layoffs. Not a huge amount, but my guess many of those people will be wanting or needing to sell their homes now because they lost their jobs (which is a bummer). I’m not entirely sure, but I think the layoffs are happening on the EMC side. Their HQ is in Hopkinton, MA, a suburb of Boston.
I took a quick look of the town on zillow, just randomly. The Slashers are there too, in varying degrees. Here’s a few (probably a lot more).
It’s fun to look at the price history to see all the slashin’. Many of them have been slashing 3-4 times already.
Those freshly fired people may contribute to even more slashing.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13-North-St-Hopkinton-MA-01748/57072665_zpid/
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3-Edge-Hill-Rd-Hopkinton-MA-01748/57072635_zpid/
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13-C-St-Hopkinton-MA-01748/57075356_zpid/
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2-Equestrian-Dr-Hopkinton-MA-01748/2098444517_zpid/
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/37-Forest-Ln-UNIT-37-Hopkinton-MA-01748/57072577_zpid/
Want to find more buyers? Start massively slashin’ prices!!
It isn’t working for the seller of 2448 Pine St in Boulder
Sad Panda’s of Boulder.
It doesn’t even take much of a price cut, when I sold in early 2007 I listed my place at about $10K under market (which only amounted to about 3%) and had a buyer under contract within a week…the realtor was surprised and said usually her clients wanted to list too high and then the property would not sell. Anyway got a quick sale and it was easy money for the realtor (used the same one from when I bought 10 years earlier because she was honest, highly competent, etc…and do realize this is NOT the case for most of them)
Anyway don’t have any sympathy for greedy sellers with substantial equity, a small discount will often lead to a quick sale…
“when I sold in early 2007 I listed my place at about $10K under market (which only amounted to about 3%)”
Good timing! Right near the top.
I too was a slasher when I sold a few months ago, about the same level as you. But no more slashing for me.
When sales don’t measure up? Just fake it!
Is US Auto Sales Data Fabricated: FBI Investigating Chrysler For Falsifying Monthly Sales Reports.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-08/fbi-investigating-fiat-chrysler-allegedly-falsifying-monthly-sales-reports
It’s hard to make a solid cash deal on a quality used car when other are using subprime, no down loans! Grrrrrr!
Remember….. Nothing raises the standard of living, creates jobs and accelerates the economy like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.
Lot’s of faking it news today.
5,300 Wells Fargo employees fired over 2 million phony accounts
http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/08/investing/wells-fargo-created-phony-accounts-bank-fees/index.html
This is the weirdest story in a long time. How much incentives do they get for a new account — $25? so they are just a bit better than Nigerian scammers
It’s as if the U.S. sphere of finance is slouching towards 3rd world status.
The Battle of Beverly Hills! In one corner, we have the American owner of the Beverly Hilton hotel (who was also the founder and CEO of Packard Bell, back in the day.) In the other corner, we have the even deeper-pocketed Chinese developer, the 19th-richest person in the world.
Bloomberg today:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-08/it-s-millionaire-versus-billionaire-in-beverly-hills-tower-spat
““We looked at a compromise, but they decided to go for broke,” said Beverly Hills Mayor John Mirisch, who opposes Alagem’s proposal.”
Fight!
Hopefully they both lose
Enjoying the CBS Evening Hillary Infomercial I mean Evening News.
Ever heard of the Dead Boys son? They had to move from Cleveland to New York to make punk happen in America:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbVGX4r5gmE
Iggy Pop created punk in Ann Arbor, Michigan. It didn’t happen in New York, and it didn’t happen in London.
Was Iggy a Wolverine?
Another neocon success story.
http://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-aleppo-2016-9
Ben, has the HBB made, er, appropriate hygiene arrangements for MightyMike?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-08/tampons-coming-mens-rooms-brown-university
Lola is ecstatic about this revelation.
Hope n’ change comes to working age men.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-percentage-of-working-age-men-that-do-not-have-a-job-is-similar-to-the-great-depression
Given the stupidity and ignorance of the ‘Murican electorate, Gary Johnson just might be a long-awaited “Man of the People.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-08/i-blanked-it-happens-gary-johnson-makes-no-excuses-his-aleppo-slip
And so it begins….
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres-a-new-normal-in-high-end-manhattan-real-estate-discounts-2016-09-08?link=MW_latest_news
The Huffington Post is a lib-tard joke. I can’t figure out why one of its natural fans, Mikey, spends so much time in the HBB.
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/09/why-arianna-huffington-left-the-huffington-post
Is the long-deferred financial reckoning day finally closing in on the Keynesian fraudsters and “former” Goldman Sachs executives at the Fed and central banks?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/08/ecbs-mario-draghi-has-run-out-of-magic-as-deflation-closes-in/
Gold is spiking as the aware and aware snatch it up before the herd figures out that Yellen the Felen and the Keynesian fraudsters at the Fed and central banks are going to print us down the road to Weimar 2.0.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/06/gold-demand-hits-4-year-high—but-us-rate-hike-raises-risk-of-p/
Collectivist kleptocrats and Comrades of Proven Worth are always a humorless bunch who do not take kindly to being mocked over their lies and failures.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/08/kim-jong-un-bans-sarcasm-in-north-korea-fearing-people-will-only/
This is just kinda a really fun album. Who plays shows like this anymore?
David Bowie — Live at Santa Monica 1972:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-F-nqBDJO8
“And some apartments are simply not moving. A three-bedroom unit at One57, 65A, sold for $29.3 million in 2014. It re-entered the market in October of 2015 at $35.5 million. After several cuts that have brought its current price to $29.5 million, it is still awaiting a buyer. Price reductions are not only happening at One57 but at other prime properties as well.”
Sounds like more slashing will be needed to sell the place.
Beatles — Magical Mystery Tour:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyV-KfDV6NM
I like to get really stoned and think about American foreign policy. What do you think about? Do you even think?
95% of ‘Muricans do not think, as evidenced by their votes for Obama, McCain, and Romney.
A few bad apples…top management was never aware…fines should be a sufficient punishment…practice limited to just one TBTF bank….any real prosecution could cause a systemic risk to the banking system….
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/08/wells-fargo-settlement-illegal-sales-accounts
Oh, the blessings of multiculturalism and fundamental transformation.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/isis-plot-attack-uk-foiled-arrests-thwart-significant-operation-west-london-terrorism-a7232671.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3779567/Anti-terror-police-smash-ISIS-plot-attack-British-soil.html
Buckle up. The house of cards is starting to come down.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/why-2017-is-the-threshold-to-chaos/
Cupertino, CA Housing Prices Crater 9% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/cupertino-ca/home-values/
Meanwhile, North Korea goes on ignoring the Finger Wagger in Chief.
https://www.rt.com/news/358730-north-korea-nuke-test-blast/
But…but…consequences!
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37314927
Did you know that nothing can accelerate the economy and create jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels?
The government needs to step in and ban consequences.
I’ve never seen zillow’s raw data before. I never knew it existed. You guys probably know more about than I do. They have raw .CSV dumps of a lot of stuff here:
http://www.zillow.com/research/data/
I was curious to see whether I could find out trends on the Slashers, and curious to see if their data confirms other news reports like the Manhattan article recently about the Slashers.
So I began charting zillow’s data they provide in “Other Metrics”:
Listings With Price Cut- Seasonally Adjusted, Top-Tier (%)
Listings With Price Cut- Seasonally Adjusted, Middle-Tier (%)
Listings With Price Cut- Seasonally Adjusted, Low-Tier (%)
The CSV raw data has it broken down by city/region, and they also include an overall United States category also. Zillow defines their Price Cut data as:
“Listings With Price Cut (%): The percentage of current listings on Zillow with a price cut during the month.”
Unfortunately, I can’t seem to find a way to see *how many* price cuts per house, I am guessing as long as there is 1 price cut, a house is counted. I really wanted to get stats on houses that have had multiple price cuts — the true Slashers.
The data spans from 9/1/2010 through 7/1/2016 so you can see a bit of history too, but it doesn’t include August yet. I used Google’s free spreadsheet Sheets online app to make the charts. If you’re curious, I pasted the pictures on imgur.
Overall, there doesn’t seem to be much of an abnormality as of July 2016 compared to historical values. There is *some* worsening this year, but nothing to write home about. One thing that was slightly interesting, it seems mostly the % of listings with price cuts were declining during 2010 -> early 2013, then began resuming upward. I think late 2012 / early 2013 was right around the price “bottom” from the previous bubble. Is the downward trend in price-reductions from 2010 -> early 2013 simply a reflection of distressed houses being taken off the market?
Here’s the charts (sorry the Y-axis scales are a little different in each chart, I neglected to ensure they were all identical for comparison, the google app is fairly easy but a little clunky to use).
All of USA:
http://imgur.com/a/wXAu8
NYC chart. Again, not much to get excited about.
http://imgur.com/a/u1aX6
I had to start digging around in the per-metro/city data to find something with a little more fluctuation. Here’s Houston:
http://imgur.com/a/67ELA
One could spend hours plotting charts and sifting through zillow’s data. I’m not sure if it is worth spending a lot of time on, as I don’t know how accurate their data is, and it would be a waste of time to really dig if that were the case. (I’m not saying their data isn’t accurate, I just have no idea).
That said — if anyone is interested in their own neighborhood, I’d be happy to whip up a chart.
Cheers!
Aside from their boots on the ground price data culled directly from transaction records, their housing demand data is quite telling.
Here’s a few more, for “Days On Zillow”. This data range spans from Jan-2010 only though June-2016. There is no July 2016 like they had with the Price Cut data.
So, for Days On Zillow, the first one is the entire USA category they provide:
http://imgur.com/a/DaKjm
Next one is NYC:
http://imgur.com/a/bIbXh
Last, here is *all* of the regions in the CSV file. (There are 259 individual regions in the file, so the legend doesn’t show all of them, but it appeared to have plotted all the lines):
http://imgur.com/a/i3DUj
What’s kind of interesting, they all show waves, with their highest points in January / February, and their lows mid-year. That should be expected as it takes longer to sell in the winter.
But in general it seems, over the years it’s either becoming quicker to sell homes, or sideways. There may be a few individual segments bucking that trend but I’d have to dig more.
Overall though, kind of uneventful.
Maybe if you worked at zillow, you might be able to get instant real-time data for all this. That would be cool.
Forgot to add - they define the Days On Zillow category as the median:
“Days on Zillow: The median days on market of homes sold within a given month, including foreclosure re-sales. The latest data is for one month prior to the current ZHVI (e.g., if the most current month for ZHVI data is January, the most current month for Days on Zillow data will be December).”
Well, maybe not entirely uneventful.
For example, the NYC chart of Days On Zillow — it seems to show two distinct periods of the waves.
A slower period from the beginning of 2010 -> end of 2013, then a significant speedup from 2013 -> 2016. I guess that makes sense since the housing market has been in a bull market again in recent years.
Also I’m not sure how well Days On Zillow can be relied on — meaning a house-seller chooses when to remove their listing from the web site. It could be when they enter escrow, or maybe mid-way through, or maybe at the end when it closes.
Ideally, what I wanted to find out, and I think would be insightful, is a histogram of the slasher levels every month.
For example, how many listings have been slashed 1 times, how many listings have been slashed 2 times, how many have been slashed 3 times, etc. Get that curve every month and come up with, say, a “Desperation Index” value. The fear and loathing index.
The Guess Who - Laughing - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqZUzXKDVx8 - 367k -
Justice Dept. Granted Immunity to Specialist Who Deleted Hillary Clinton’s Emails
By ADAM GOLDMAN and MICHAEL S. SCHMIDT
SEPT. 8, 2016
WASHINGTON — A computer specialist who deleted Hillary Clinton’s emails despite orders from Congress to preserve them was given immunity by the Justice Department during its investigation into her personal email account, according to a law enforcement official and others briefed on the investigation.
Another one about the HELOCs from the past. A bunch of them are resetting again this year. I didn’t know, the first 10 years were interest-only, but then after 10 years you have to start to pay principal.
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/09/08/loan-stress-missed-home-equity-payments-spell-trouble-for-mortgages-credit-cards/
“Prior to the housing meltdown, millions of homeowners signed up for Helocs, most of which only require interest payments for the first 10 years. Many of those loans are now resetting and delinquencies continue to rise as borrowers’ payments spike, often by hundreds of dollars, The Wall Street Journal reported last month.
Roughly 840,000 Helocs that were originated in 2006 are resetting this year and another nearly one million are expected to reset next year, according to Equifax.”
–
If you default on a HELOC, can they foreclose the house?
BY Leslie Larson
NEW YORK DAILY NEWS
Updated: Monday, June 23, 2014, 5:13 PM
“I was curious if I could care about (money) on some fundamental level, and I couldn’t,”
Penn State ‘Progressives’ Denounce Steep Ticket Prices for Chelsea Clinton Campaign Event
By Andrew Stiles | 2:29 pm, September 8, 2016
College Progressives at Penn State University were not happy with the steep entry price to a “Conversation with Chelsea” event featuring former First Daughter Chelsea Clinton, the least successful member of the Clinton political dynasty.
The event, which took place Wednesday in State College, Pa., charged $500 just to get in the door, and $1,000 for a photo with Chelsea. For $2,700, attendees would be granted access to a special reception with the guest of honor.
College Progressives at Penn State really wanted to be a part of the so-called “conversation,” but quite rightly noted that $500 was a hefty price that would exclude many college students from attending.
“Although we certainly support Chelsea’s right to campaign on her mother’s behalf, we do not agree with Mrs. Clinton choosing to make this ‘conversation’ available exclusively to individuals who can afford or are willing to pay at least $500,” said Ethan Paul, vice president of College Progressives of Penn State. “It is particularly deplorable that a $2,700 donation—the legal limit—gets a personal conversation with Mrs. Clinton.”
Others agreed. College Progressive Secretary Kathryn Van Develde said “putting such an expensive price on involvement in elections really hurts college students who already feel there is no point to politics.”
“Citi Habitats also tracked…”
Yes, ‘habitats’. Where us animals live and breed.
c?