The Vast Majority Of Risk Has No Capital Behind It
A report from Market Watch. “While the days of ‘NINJA loans’ (no income, no job, no assets) are for the most part gone from the American mortgage marketplace, at least one housing think tank says the pendulum has now swung too far in the other direction and made it harder for many Americans to get a mortgage. According to the Washington, D.C.-based Urban Institute, the pool of mortgage loans made between 2011 and 2015 have even lower default rates than the more ‘normal’ lending period of 1999 to 2003, when less than 2% of the loans defaulted after 10 years.”
“Only ‘the best borrowers are getting loans today and these loans are so thoroughly scrubbed and cleaned before they’re made that hardly any of them end up going into default,’ wrote Laurie Goodman, co-director of the Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center. ‘A near-zero-default environment is clear evidence that we need to open up the credit box and lend to borrowers with less-than-perfect credit,’ she wrote.”
“The Mortgage Bankers Association’s credit availability index, which tracks the relative ease (or difficulty) of obtaining a mortgage by factoring in data such as credit scores, guidelines from institutional loan buyers and appetite for risk, shows that while credit availability has dramatically increased since 2011, it has plateaued since the middle of last year, and is well below the levels of 2004, the last ‘normal’ year of lending and credit scores.”
The New York Times. “Mortgages to borrowers with spotty credit histories have yet to come roaring back from the financial crisis, but they are on the rise at the private equity giant Lone Star Funds. Its wholly owned mortgage business, Caliber Home Loans, is one of the few financial firms to report a significant percentage increase this year in the dollar value of subprime mortgages it is managing and servicing for homeowners.”
“Most of the subprime mortgages at Caliber are ‘legacy’ loans, those issued before the housing bust, which Lone Star acquired from banks and federal agencies. But Caliber is also one of the few lenders beginning to issue mortgages to borrowers with less than perfect credit records and to issue bonds backed by those loans.”
“Caliber, a firm that Lone Star began cobbling together nearly four years ago, is now one of the fastest-growing mortgage finance firms in the country. Its portfolio of subprime mortgages increased about 14 percent, to $17 billion, in the last year, according to Fitch Ratings. Mortgages to borrowers with shaky credit histories account for 18 percent of the $93 billion in mortgages that Caliber manages and collects payments on from homeowners.”
“In June, Fitch reviewed and rated the first securitization of nonprime mortgages Lone Star brought to market, a $161 million bond offering backed by nearly 400 mortgages, which is one of the largest securitization of nonprime mortgages since the financial crisis. In its review, Fitch noted that the ‘credit quality of the borrowers is weaker than prime.’”
“Now, Lone Star plans an even larger bond offering backed mainly by nonprime mortgages written by Caliber. In a Sept. 6 pre-sale ratings report, Fitch said the newest $217 million securitization will be backed by 501 mortgages.”
The Australian. “The biggest market in the US, real estate, makes a mockery of the country’s reputation as a bastion of free enterprise. The level of government interference in the $US26 trillion ($34 trillion) US housing market, worth 40 per cent more than it was five years ago, continues to rise automatically and with little scrutiny.”
“The toxic subprime loans that spread around the world stoking the 2008 financial crisis have evaporated. But in their place a new socialisation of mortgage risk has emerged, underpinning surging house prices and increased borrowing. Prices in Denver, Seattle and Portland are rising at Sydney-style double-digit annual pace, while US house prices overall have been rising about 5 per cent a year since 2012. Texas house prices are already 20 per cent above their 2006 peak.”
“‘Our nationalised home lending system is an economics-free zone,’ says Edward Pinto, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute with 42 years in the industry. ‘It’s a frog in a pan on slow boil: we have the unseemly situation of low-capital government entities competing with each other to underwrite risky loans. This will continue until it can’t, which could be 12 or 15 years away.’”
“Chastened by billions in fines and tougher regulations, the US banks have almost vacated the field and now originate fewer than one-fifth of new home loans. Quicken Loans, a Detroit finance company, for instance, is about to overtake banking giant Wells Fargo as the biggest US home lender. Already more than 60 per cent of the $US10 trillion in US mortgages outstanding are directly or indirectly insured by the US government, or a smattering of New Deal and 1960s-era agencies with varying degrees of government ownership and control.”
“These loans are packaged up and sold to investors, such as large pension and mutual funds, all around the world. And this share is growing, with about 90 per cent of new loans guaranteed by these agencies — up from about 80 per cent a decade ago. ‘The vast majority of mortgage risk is now directly borne by US taxpayers with basically no capital standing behind it,’ says Mark Calabria, a financial regulation expert at the Cato Institute.”
“Even the US Federal Reserve is helping prop up demand. It holds $US1.7 trillion in mortgage-backed securities. While the quantitative easing programs that instigated the build-up have finished for now, the Fed still buys about one-quarter of new mortgages issued to maintain its existing stock.”
“Investors wouldn’t be so keen if credit quality mattered to them. But it doesn’t. These loans are insured or guaranteed by one of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae. As long as they conform to increasingly generous limits laid down by regulation, these agencies will guarantee — for a fee of less than 0.7 percentage points, which ultimately is passed on to the borrower — interest payments and principal.”
“‘Most of the benefit doesn’t go to bring in more borrowers, a large portion of it goes to higher prices for the sellers,’ says Pinto. The system doesn’t appear to have helped home ownership much, though. The US home ownership rate has steadily fallen from 69 per cent in 2004 to 63 per cent, the lowest level since the 60s.”
“Nevertheless, borrowers believe they are getting an excellent deal. US households can borrow for 30 years fixed at 3.5 per cent, which is less than many sovereign governments have to pay. More than 80 per cent of mortgages outstanding are of this type, a feature extending back to the 30s when congress first stipulated the duration of loans that Fannie Mae would insure.”
“Intended to be temporary, the agencies’ loan limits were relaxed significantly in the wake of the financial crisis, but they remain high and are about $US625,000 in many parts of the US. ‘A more cynical interpretation is that people like (congress members) Barney Frank and Nancy Pelosi wanted to see more of the housing markets in their own districts (California and Boston) covered,’ says Calabria.”
“Not surprisingly, the average loan to valuation ratio has crept up from 80 per cent to 86 per cent since the financial crisis. While US banks have roughly doubled their capital levels (albeit from not very much) to more than $US1.1 trillion since the financial crisis, Fannie and Freddie and the Federal Housing Authority — which insures the loans that Ginnie Mae packages up and sells — have little meaningful capital. If swathes of loans default, taxpayers will be picking up the tab.”
‘‘A near-zero-default environment is clear evidence that we need to open up the credit box and lend to borrowers with less-than-perfect credit’
You read that right folks. Defaults are too low.
“…the pool of mortgage loans made between 2011 and 2015 have even lower default rates than the more ‘normal’ lending period of 1999 to 2003, when less than 2% of the loans defaulted after 10 years.”
Yes, the default rate is too low. There is a happy medium. I tell my students learning to ski “If you’re not falling, you’re not learning!”
I’ve been stating there is very little subprime or high risk lending today. This article supports that observation. What.is even MORE interesting is that housing prices are rising faster than inflation! Why? Simple: Mire supply than demand!
HA, the truth shall set you free!
Subprime mortgage default rates look great if you cherry pick periods when home prices were increasing at unprecedented rates due to a historic real estate mania (1999-2003 or 2011-2015, for two examples). During such atypical time periods, the vast majority of borrowers quickly move into and remain in a positive equity position and hence face little incentive to default. It’s after prices crash that you learn how many of these subprime borrowers were swimming without their clothes on.
PS I overheard a colleague who I know happens to own a small personal rental investment empire in the SD area on the phone getting a price quote from an appraiser yesterday. Makes me suspect he is going to try to cash out before the next crash. Is this still possible in SoCal, or has he already missed the last good chance?
Just announced:
‘The regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), unveiled a program aimed at homeowners who are paying their mortgages on time but whose loan-to-value (LTV) ratios are too high to qualify for traditional refinance programs.’
‘This will be especially helpful to hundreds of Valley families in Visalia, Tulare, and Porterville.’
‘Because this program for high LTV borrowers will not be available until October 2017, the FHFA will extend the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) until Sept. 30, 2017, as a bridge to the new high LTV program.’
‘HARP was introduced in 2009 to help underwater borrowers following the housing bust. More than 3.4 million homeowners have refinanced their mortgage through the program. More than 300,000 homeowners could still refinance through HARP.’
‘In contrast to HARP, there are no eligibility cut-off dates connected with the new high LTV program, and homeowners will be able to use it more than once to refinance their mortgage, according to FHFA.’
A link at that page:
‘Visalia real estate sales are hot’
‘If you are significantly underwater and have not taken advantage of the HARP program yet, you have a decision to make. Would you benefit from aspects of the new program, such as the ability to refinance more than once, or should you take advantage of the existing HARP program extension? It’s difficult to assess the best option without the details of the new program.’
‘Meanwhile, why not send in your suggestion for a name and acronym for the new program? Perhaps the Home Equity Loan Plan (HELP)?’
I would not touch a home purchase in California right now with a 10,000 foot pole.
Just last week I had a shoe-shine-boy moment at work when I heard from one of our administrative assistants how she is getting booted out of her rental home and hence looking to buy a place in the mid-$500K range. Thank God for federally-guaranteed mortgages!
Guaranteeing Underwater Loans Program (GULP)
Loans on Overpriced Shacks Entitlement (LOSE)
This stuff is truly comical.
Because its jingle _frrrrraaaaaaaud.
Cost u 7% to get you w commission and trans taxes
“Mire supply”
The supply is a mire indeed, and your Freudian typo is right on target.
“More money supply than demand!”
Fixed it.
“If you’re not falling, you’re not breaking any bones… until you fly over that yonder cliff ahead.”
Yes, the default rate is too low. There is a happy medium. I tell my students learning to ski “If you’re not falling, you’re not learning!”
Except if you fall learning to ski, you will most likely get only a bump or bruise.
Excess debt and the financial catastrophes that accompany it ruin lives and distort our entire economy.
“ruin lives”
That’s the point of the cliff metaphor.
‘Prices in Denver, Seattle and Portland are rising at Sydney-style double-digit annual pace, while US house prices overall have been rising about 5 per cent a year since 2012. Texas house prices are already 20 per cent above their 2006 peak’
Five percent, in some places double digits. Remember, that’s compounded. House prices should go up about the rate of inflation. It was that way for centuries.
Want affordable housing? Build!
As more cities every day the word shortage is replaced by glut, the “build your way out of a bubble” idea is discredited. Did you know Manhattan is an island, where people make tons of money and towers are empty and in foreclosure?
‘Rising housing investment is a sign that the Bank of Japan’s negative-rate policy is working, according to Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. But it also has a lot to do with tax changes, and ironically, the increasing supply of new homes might drag down Japan’s inflation rate, the opposite of what Kuroda wants.’
‘The rental market is already weak, however, and more apartments and houses are likely to push down rents more, further hurting inflation. With more than 10 percent of homes in Japan in 2013 empty and rents falling every month since October 2008, the new construction is coming in a saturated market. Some 34 percent of rental apartments in central Tokyo were vacant in June, according to Kazuyuki Fujii of TAS Real Estate, up from around 30 percent in early 2015.’
‘One reason why this construction is increasing is a January 2015 change to tax laws that encourages people to build these kinds of properties to reduce inheritance tax. “It will produce more vacant houses and depreciate rent and CPI,” former BOJ official Hideo Hayakawa said recently.’
‘The BOJ noted the problem itself in a July outlook report, saying that “the increase in construction of housing for rent that is motivated by inheritance tax savings has led to a further rise in the already high vacancy rate of housing for rent, and this has generated downward pressure on private housing rent.”
‘Some 34 percent of rental apartments in central Tokyo were vacant in June’
There is no shortage of land or housing anywhere on the planet, and there never has been.
30-34% of Tokyo rentals vacant. Holy cow, what a staggering number. Meanwhile:
“A survey by the Japanese arm of the homeless charity Big Issue Foundation says 77 percent of the nation’s low-income unmarried youths live with their parents mainly for financial reasons.”
“The thing about Japan’s housing policy is that it only caters to middle-income families, while there is almost nothing to help low-income young adults make a living by themselves,” he said.
“But if you’re not on good terms with your parents, chances are you may fall out with them and have to leave their home even though doing so means becoming homeless overnight.”
The article comes with a picture of a homeless 30-something sleeping on a park bench.
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/05/14/national/social-issues/japans-low-earning-adults-find-hard-leave-home-marry/#.V9QdCtq9KK0
Some years ago I saw a documentary about how empty office space in Tokyo was converted in low income housing for singles. They basically made teensy studio apartments using tall cubicle partitions. They contained a desk and a small wardrobe, which had a futon inside it. Most of the tenants were lucky ducky types, with menial part time jobs.
I’m guessing a foreign real estate investment tax like the one in Vancouver is all it would take to restore affordability in California and help plug holes in the state budget without costing resident state taxpayers a nickel.
No new building is necessary if you hit the greedy foreign investors up for taxes.
‘with about 90 per cent of new loans guaranteed by these agencies — up from about 80 per cent a decade ago. ‘The vast majority of mortgage risk is now directly borne by US taxpayers with basically no capital standing behind it’
In 1986, the GSE’s were backing about 25%, but that shot up to near half three years later. By 2006 according to this paper, it was 80%. Now 90%.
‘Most of the benefit doesn’t go to bring in more borrowers, a large portion of it goes to higher prices for the sellers’
All you real estate geniuses out there take note: it might just be that you have benefited from an unusual historical government intervention into the housing market which may or may not last.
Why would it change? Historically low default rates? The GSEs are doing a great job…..some even say they should relax a bit and party a little more! That will take a decade to play out.
If you want stable & affordable housing for people, build more of it!
Have you sold more houses lately? Why did you sell any?
I sold one house in mid-2013. I paid $290,000 in 2010 and sold it for $420,000. It was listed for a week. It would probably sell for $500,000 today, 3 years later and the buyer is very happy with the house.
I have sold nothing since and do not want to sell any more. I get a 5% cash on cash return and another 5% more with the principal reduction. Where would I get that kind of return today? If you consider the appreciation, it is even better.
So how much was the buyer’s mortgage? What was his income?
“it might just be that you have benefited from an unusual historical government intervention into the housing market which may or may not last.”
Now you’re sounding like an economist!
This trend may continue. On the other hand, it may not.
Inarguably true.
40% of statistics are made up on the spot. What I’m suggesting is clear enough.
+40
‘The vast majority of mortgage risk is now directly borne by US taxpayers with basically no capital standing behind it.’
Doesn’t the Fed serve as buyer-of-last-resort for the federally-guaranteed loans through its MBS purchase program? Once the Fed buys the debt and buries it on its balance sheet, isn’t the default risk extinguished for good?
Why can’t the Fed just buy all bad debt in all industries? Why can’t small businesses access the discount window? Why not have the Fed buy all obsolete inventory? Why not just have a TOTAL FED ECONOMY?
“The biggest market in the US, real estate, makes a mockery of the country’s reputation as a bastion of free enterprise. The level of government interference in the $US26 trillion ($34 trillion) US housing market, worth 40 per cent more than it was five years ago, continues to rise automatically and with little scrutiny.”
When the dust settles on the eventual collapse of the current real estate bubble, economic historians will have a field day documenting the levels and duration of government intervention to sustain the mania.
This Friday the equity and bond markets were roiled by implications that maybe there would be less monetary stimulus going forward.
Eventually they’re (government and central bank) going to have to deal with the sickness instead of letting it fester and grow, choosing to merely give the patient morphine. I’m not sure they know what the sickness is though. Or they do and the treatment is unpalatable to them personally, as they do quite well from the current regiment.
‘Investors wouldn’t be so keen if credit quality mattered to them. But it doesn’t. These loans are insured or guaranteed by one of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or Ginnie Mae. As long as they conform to increasingly generous limits laid down by regulation, these agencies will guarantee — for a fee of less than 0.7 percentage points’
The article goes on to mention that this sub .7% is flat, with no regard to credit quality. Therefore encouraging riskier lending on the face of it.
A peculiar month September.
Ever since 9/11.
I’m over 9/11.
You may be, but the 9/11 bill allowing victims to sue SA was passed by the Senate and yesterday the House and is now on its way to Obama, who may well have his veto overridden.
And if so, it’s on like Donkey Kong. And a good thing, too. Because if there’s litigation, there’s a good chance all the juicy stuff comes out, like how 9/11 was SA’s way of giving Shrub a bit of a “nudge”, for not moving faster on Saddam.
The Saudis pay good money to the Bushes, Clintons and other neocons and they expect something for it, like wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc.
When the Saudis start dumping their US Treasuries and pivot to China and Russia for protection, the petrodollar is toast. Got gold?
let ‘em do it, who cares? That’s how we got into this mess in the first place, the petrodollar, followed by a horrible alliance. Without their oil, they’re nothing. England created this ME monster and then dumped it on the US post WW2.
Good for them, though I don’t see how they can make the saudis pay them if they win. Now if the compensation they’re suing for is air strikes on Riyadh, well, airstrikes are something our government loves to do….
I just still can’t get over how we bombed the living hell out of Iraq and Afghanistan in revenge for 9/11, and Saudi Arabia was untouched.
Neither can I. And it has been said by others that Washington bombed the wrong countries.
BTW, try not to use that pronoun “we” when discussing the war crimes of Washington and the neocons. Most of us, including you, aren’t part of that “we”. I know it’s hard, I do it myself, it’s kind of a reflex thing. There’s the US, US citizens, and then there’s Washington, the occupation government. That’s how I look at it, anyway.
If we had as a country stopped what we were doing and marched a few million protesters into DC until things were corrected, I think things could have been corrected.
Instead we argued about it with people that also weren’t marching around DC showing the government we weren’t going to put up with this crap.
I’m not going to march anywhere, but I don’t think I’m absolved of the actions of my government. I have probably contributed enough tax revenue to buy a few hellfire missiles.
We’re not really powerless. We just aren’t motivated, and are averse to risk.
“I don’t think I’m absolved of the actions of my government.”
Have at it, then. I didn’t agree to these wars.
You must hate freedom. And the children.
“I just still can’t get over how we bombed the living hell out of Iraq and Afghanistan in revenge for 9/11, and Saudi Arabia was untouched.”
A likely answer is staring you in the face: the deep state conspired with the Saudi’s to commit 9/11, giving the deep state an excuse to go into the very oil rich Iraq and the very mineral and heroin rich Afghanistan. Blow up evidence of deep state fraud, ramp up sales to the military industrial complex, its win-win-win all around for the deep state. Saudi oil has probably been declining in earnest for years. They’ve made many claims about output over the years, little of which has proven true.
Its hard for people to accept this theory, but it fits the data points.
“A likely answer is staring you in the face: the deep state conspired with the Saudi’s to commit 9/11…”
This suggests coordination when chaos is the likely reality.
The rise of Al-Qaeda following the Soviet failure in Afghanistan and the Kuwaiti invasion by Iraq were separate isolated events. The U.S. troop build-up in the region presented an opportunity to “sandwich” Iran by constructing remote airfields along both its borders providing Israel an added measure of security.
I was a poster back in 2005 to 2007 and in back in 2010 was surly disagreed with when I stated time to start buying then. I’ve lurked now and then back to this blog but found it was turning political to much. I’ve started lurking more this year to see the tone and seeing posters now able to more so stay on housing topic.
I did buy homes and sold homes during the 2010 to 2016 time frames with easy profit results. I now have the homes that I would not sell even on a downturn.
From my view point the market is not the same issue as it was back in 2005 (watching Boston and Miami). I see that we a couple things as an issue and we will need to see how they play out over the next year or two. One we have many homes that are being held as rentals from big institutional players and the small investors. The main theory for these players is to get price appreciation while still able to purchase with a good cap rate of return. This all works if pricing stays increasing and rents keep up with pricing. This has now changed this spring as housing prices in the areas I’m watching have increased and rents stalled and decreasing due to excess supply. Two it is less expensive to rent in the areas I’m watching than to own, even if you can come up with 20% (200K) in my Boston location.
Whats happens at this reflection point time will tell. But it all comes down to inventory and buyers. Long as you have more buyers than what inventory is available we will keep the prices levitated to increasing. If the big institutional players start selling this will fill the inventory issue quickly as we know once its time to exit they will and fast.
‘back in 2010 was surly disagreed with when I stated time to start buying then’
When I was buying houses I didn’t tell anyone on this blog. It was none of their business.
‘found it was turning political to much’
I used to sit here and read/delete comments for 14 hours a day. Then in 2008 I started a property preservation business that I was soon working 7 days a week on. Sorry your hand wasn’t held during that period.
I don’t get the complaining. This is my third presidential election while blogging. If it was souper bowl time, people would talk about that. If you aren’t interested in the souper bowl, go do something else. But do stop whining on the internet about the comment moderation. Nobody cares.
“…..If you aren’t interested in the souper bowl, go do something else.”
You missed his point. He did go do something else. He recently came back to see what the latest news is here on the HBB. I don’t like the political discourse either, so i just skip thru it to get to housing information.
‘You missed his point’
I didn’t read his post because I stopped at the whining.
Ha ha. Let the whiney hiney-holes submit a hurt-feelings report to someone who cares.
If someone has not noticed this is called “housing” bubble blog, if you would like to blog about football or politics we have blogs for this. Now if you would like to chat about politics that have something that encroaches on housing then that makes sense and the same with football. I’m willing to read that view. But to take up a good portion of the blog with nothing to do with housing just does not fit. But the responses that are coming out of this, especially from Ben makes me think this is not the Blog it was back in 2005. You can now respond you more negativity if it makes you feel better.
“I did buy homes and sold homes during the 2010 to 2016 time frames with easy profit results.”
How many did you flip Al?
I’m a small guy in this investing as I work a full time job. I purchased 4 properties in which I held for rental value and expectation the value would increase, plus my primary home that I just swapped out in 2015 for a better Boston location and a second home to leave for the winter trips to MIA. In 2015 I ended up selling three as the market seemed to be getting heated and put my profit aside and give the good old government a boost from my capital gain tax. I’m not a flipper to buy, fix, and just sell anymore. The numbers got to make sense as a rental and this disconnect for my view was happening in 2015.
I do love RE and found this blog in the tail end of 2005 and the people adding responses gave me good insight of what was happening from different areas of the country. In the early 2000’s you could of called me a flipper as I had not thought of holding, but stopped in 2003 due to work and prices seemed heated, I was wrong by a couple years.
So that leaves you with a primary residence in Boston, a second home in Miami and 1 rental property in the Boston area, is that right?
A few recent ‘topics’ of interest along the lines of this last ‘housingbubbleblog’ post……
Fannie Mae Conventional 97 Mortgage Requires Just 3% Down
September 9, 2016
Another low-downpayment option is available to today’s home buyers. The 97% LTV program can be used to refinance, too. Q&A plus access to live rate quotes.
Today’s Mortgage Rates Analysis
September 9, 2016
Using the IRRRL (VA Streamline Refinance) to refinance your home
The VA IRRRL Refinance Mortgage For Military Borrowers: Rates & Rules
September 9, 2016
The VA Interest Rate Reduction Refinance Loan (IRRRL), also known as the VA Streamline Refinance, waives verifications and credit scores. Get more information, plus access to live VA rates, here.
Freddie Mac: 30-year mortgage rates drop 2 basis points (0.02%) to reach 3.44% on average
Freddie Mac: 30-Year Mortgage Rates Keep On Giving
September 8, 2016
Freddie Mac reports 30-year mortgage rates dropping again, and hiding beneath 3.5%. Mortgage rates are down close to 60 basis points (0.60%) from the New Year.
Tips for closing on a loan more quickly
Tricks For Closing On-Time With A “Quick Closing” Mortgage
September 8, 2016
To win their bidding wars, U.S. buyers are offering quick closings to home sellers. Here’s how to do it, and what you need to know. Rate quotes available.
FHA policy changes when you can close your FHA Streamline Refinance
FHA Streamline Refinance Changes: A New Loan Closing Date Policy
September 8, 2016
The FHA has changed its FHA Streamline Refinance policies, making it easier to close on a refinance loan and reducing the cash you’ll require at closing.
What To Know About Mortgage Rate Shopping
With Mortgage Rates In The 3s, It Still Pays To Shop
September 8, 2016
Mortgage rates are in the 3s, but that doesn’t mean you should skip rate shopping. Get an even lower rate with time
http://themortgagereports.com/
Tx ‘re 20% over prices when oil was $100?
Wow
My good is 5% below peak
Whoops hood
What us markets still have “bidding wars?”
Boston sure has held with “Bidding wars” throughout the summer. Miami has defiantly softened so I’m sure not as many, if any.
I noticed a sharp increase of inventory this week in Boston, I would guess the summer is over and people place the home up for sale. We will see if inventory increases over last years at this time by the end of September.
Tx Aug is usually slow so keep a lookout
My hood has 2 months inventory w hitlery coming to town
Big spend coming
Strange considering I’m in Boston and the notion of a “bidding war” is something that occurs elsewhere. Not here.
Not sure if you are right in Boston or the burbs, but a lot of listing in Boston (areas of beacon hill, back bay, Charlestown, and Cambridge) have a will review offers on a certain date and then goes under contingency after that date. It most likely was due to several offers coming in bidding up the price. The Boston burbs maybe not so much.
‘the pool of mortgage loans made between 2011 and 2015 have even lower default rates than the more ‘normal’ lending period of 1999 to 2003, when less than 2% of the loans defaulted after 10 years’
We all know there was no bubble between 1999 and 2003, right? We are nationally experiencing 50 consecutive months of increasing prices. In some areas like Florida it’s 80 months. How could you possibly default in such an environment? What this think tank (or whatever it is) avoids is that the vast majority of mania defaults were prime loans and the only thing that signifies them was when they were made. Not NINJA, not anything but the prevailing price at the time.
What is undeniable? Push button, get mortgage. How much capital is there behind Quicken? Zero. How many house flipping TV shows are there? And the viewership of these shows is at an all time high.
‘credit availability has dramatically increased since 2011′
Huh, 2011 was right when shack prices took off. Coincidence?
‘These loans are packaged up and sold to investors, such as large pension and mutual funds, all around the world. And this share is growing, with about 90 per cent of new loans guaranteed by these agencies — up from about 80 per cent a decade ago.’
‘The vast majority of mortgage risk is now directly borne by US taxpayers with basically no capital standing behind it’
How many times were we told the problem was no one had any skin in the game?
Ben Jones: How many times were we told the problem was no one had any skin in the game?
Companies which make profit while pushing the risk off onto other entities are basically parasitic entities.
In this sense it’s worse than 2000-whatever. Year after year, multi-billion dollar settlements related to MBS are settled. Who is going to pay if this blows up, the Rocket Mortgage guy? It’s strange but the honest skin in the game lender is the subprime company in the story above. At least they are using their own money and can be sued if their securities are faulty.
There’s a reason Mel Watt gives a “we might need bailing out again” speech every month or three.
The last two mortgages I took out last fall 2015 was just so easy at that time. I was able to closed one if them in just over two weeks. Not one question asked from underwriting. The previous mortgages in 2014 was questions, what I usually expect so the underwriter has something to say they asked. Things have been more loose on credit and I even see some home listings I look at with down payment assistance, still don’t know what that is about but can’t be good.
‘I’m Not a US Citizen, Can I Buy A Home In The US?’
‘There are many new ways to buy a home in the States, even if you are not a U.S. citizen. Just recently, regulations have been revised to grant non-permanent resident aliens the same financing opportunities as U.S. citizens, as long as the home purchased will be a primary residence.’
http://www.novahomeloans.com/faqs/
And you can get your non-permanent resident aliens buddies to say they’ll live with you and their income counts. How many buddies? There’s no limit. Heck of a job Mel.
Ben Jones: Heck of a job Mel.
One big problem is politicians spend so much of their time fundraising. Politicians are not policy wonks, they’re primarily development officers. And as such, they spend their time talking to those with the most to offer them personally. Those with the deepest pockets and most honed lobbying mechanisms. And they’re very persuasive. Which is how we get the policies we do.
Remember, median household incomes in Denver are less than $60,000:
http://www.denverpost.com/2016/09/09/four-beds-big-price-difference/
“A four-bedroom, two-bathroom home lists for an average price of $929,496 in the city of Boulder. But someone willing to live in Craig can get that type of house for $184,833 ”
Someone willing to live in Detroit, MI on Three Mile Dr can get that type of house for $1,000
4417 Three Mile Dr Detroit, MI 48224
4 beds
2 full , 2 half baths
1,680 sq ft
$1,000
http://www.realtor.com/ - 150k -
Dogs climbing mountains:
http://www.picpaste.com/20160910_124910.jpg
This pic taken at about elevation 12,000, the mountain this dog climbed is 13,600.
The Deplorables
Clinton: Trump supporters in ‘basket of deplorables… - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZHp4JLWjNw - 229k -
I guess the Comrades of Proven Worth are going to have to build a Deplorables wing of the gulag once they install their collectivist kleptocracy.
“And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?… The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin’s thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If…if…We didn’t love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation…. We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.”
― Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
I saw this last night, zombie queen is hurting:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Guu33quZMYc
I half expect Huma or Donna Brazile to put on a Hiliary wig and stand in for her at the debates, like some bad SNL skit. Maybe even VP Biteme. I imagine it wouldnt be the first time he dressed up as a woman either.
Starting to look like Weekend at Bernie’s.
Now Hillary is in full backpedaling mode and says she misspoke by labeling half of Trump supporters “deplorable.” So is she going to come out with precise criteria for what precisely qualifies one as “Deplorable”? Are there varying degrees of deplorability? The basket-dwellers want to know. After all, being called “deplorable” by someone as vile as Hillary Clinton could be seen as a badge of honor.
The deplorable debacle makes me think she’s having a really tough time keeping some of the traditional democrats on the plantation. This is obvious from her infrequent, weak rallies vs. Trumps rock star-like concert tour.
Trump definitely kicks her ass in the charisma department.
No rights under a$$clown Dump.
http://theantimedia.org/donald-trump-comes-out-against-4th-amendment/
At least one banker is going away for 30 years. We do things different here in Vietnam.
Pham (Corzine) Danh must have fallen out of favor with Golddong Sacks:
http://www.thanhniennews.com/society/vietnam-jails-former-bank-chairman-for-30-years-over-illegal-withdrawals-65922.html
” intentional wrongdoings and violations of lending rules.”
If only one banker (or Goldstype person) would have been convicted and sentenced like this circa 2004-2008 (or before), I’m sure it would have changed the course of world history…but alas.
Speaking of corruption:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-08/wells-fargo-fires-5300-engaging-massive-fraud-creating-over-2-million-fake-accounts
http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/14/investing/atm-overdraft-fees/
That was in Thailand. In the US the Goldmanites get immunity and impunity.
Hillary labels you deplorable for pointing that out.
Comrade Hillary: If you do not support globalism and open borders, or lowering standards for greater “inclusion,” or resist having your wealth seized and redistributed by collectivist kleptocrats, you are a Deplorable. To the gulag with you! Forward!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-10/hillary-calls-half-trump-supporters-racist-sexist-homophobic-basket-deplorables
Will Correct The Record be getting another Soros cash infusion to try to bully their way into Hillary winning via intimidation and defamation?
Guess what @ssholes, it isn’t working
Yes, well, that’s how those folks are. They point fingers so others won’t look their way, at their own deeply depraved deviance. That’s what all this “shaming” is about. I see it from some of the posters here.
Both of you two need to stop being so deplorable.
They are trying to dig old Hillary out of this on MSNBC. What she meant, she was talking about half.
I think that nasty Leftist speech writer made a big boo boo and they had better keep that big convulsion whisperer pretty damn close to Hilliary the next time they prop her up in public.
What was that sound?
That was the sound of the left crapping itself.
As to her handler, why do these guys always have names like Todd or Bruce?
The EU bunglers, having progressively destroyed the Eurozone’s productive economies, will increasingly see foreign (i.e. American) corporations as cash cows to be squeezed for taxes.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/times-changing-pay-taxes-euro-zone-chief-tells-091508956–business.html
This situation is very strange. Didn’t these companies move their “headquarters” there specifically for the tax advantages? It’s kinda like the Cayman Islands getting tough. The second thing is, the central bank over there is printing and buying so much paper they are running out of stuff to buy. Spain can borrow at rates only slightly higher than oxide.
Goldman Sachs opens Project Fear in a new country to try to frighten locals into backing the status quo and deferring the inevitable financial reckoning day.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/09/08/goldman-sachs-launched-project-fear-in-italy-no-vote-referendum/
Negative interest rates and the war on cash: who is pushing these swindles against the 99%?
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2016/09/negative-interest-rates-and-the-war-on-cash-3/
Will Hillary have special FEMA camps for the Deplorables?
“And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?… The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin’s thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If…if…We didn’t love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation…. We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.”
― Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
Things would have been like this: Security would show up in several armored vehicles, surround the house, toss in a gas grenade, and shoot you down when you emerged coughing and firing your Ar15 wildly.
If that did’t work, they’d just burn the house with you inside.
When push comes to shove, the cops win. You might take a few with you , but most of that walmart ammo you stockpiled is not going to be fired by you.
“You might take a few with you”
Uh, that’s kind of the point.
Kind of a nihilistic point, but I’ll allow it.
The number of cops per capita in this country is very low. So when the cops show up to start rounding gun owning citizens, the outcome will be certain. For example, when 50 gun owners with 30-06 hunting rifles ambush the first police car that shows up and fill the two officers with 100 rounds each, and the second police ends up with the same, the police will quickly go home and burn their police uniforms.
Entire states will quickly lose their police departments. And what is the government going to do, send in the Army? But most of the soldiers in the Army believe in the rights of the gun owners–they wouldn’t shoot at their dads and neighbors in a million years.
So it wouldn’t even be close. The police are greatly outnumbered in this country. Unlike the disarmed masses all around the world, 40% of American households own firearms.
But most of the soldiers in the Army believe in the rights of the gun owners–they wouldn’t shoot at their dads and neighbors in a million years.
Basic training conditions them to follow orders and that’s what they’ll do.
Your lack of knowledge about the modern day soldier mindset matches your lack of knowledge about everything else you spout off about. Its kind of funny how you remind me of some of the biggest liars I’ve crossed paths with over the years who sound so self-assured about their outrageous statements - maybe it works on people who lack critical thinking skills. I guess that would explain the democrat party with its plantation mentality and its need to destroy the educational system wherever it can.
While it galls me to say this, MightyMike is probably right.
Sorry, junior, I’m right nearly all of the time.
Irrelevant.
No facts, no experience (my statements are based on the latter and weekly/daily observations/conversations), just vapid claims from a troll that has taken it upon itself to police every statement. How likely are you to know much of anything in the real world when you’re so busy making sure you’re narrative goes unchallenged on this - and presumably - other blogs?
Thanks for proving my point about the correlation between liars and the left.
The first Army Captain that gives the order to mow down the patriots will find himself shot by one or more of his men in about 3 seconds. The battalion commander will meet with the same fate.
The commanding general will either be arrested or shot on sight. The NEW commanding general, 1st Lt. Jones, acting C.G. will issue an order to return to base.
If you thought that fragging was a problem in Vietnam, just wait until the military is ordered to shoot and kill armed American citizens who are protecting their rights.
You people are really not very bright. Even at the Tiananmen Square protest, the Chinese Army suffered thousands of casualties and several deaths to soldiers, and the students didn’t possess a singer firearm.
What would happen if those students had thousands of rifles? Even the Chinese Government struggled to put down that protest.
If the government made a move against the citizens here, states like Idaho and Texas would just leave the Union. Others would follow. There aren’t enough police in Idaho or Texas to take on hundreds of thousands of armed citizens intent on killing civilians. It wouldn’t even be a contest.
In San Bernardino, two not very competent Muslim Terrorists required all of the Inland Empire law enforcement personnel to end their rampage. The 1992 L.A. Riots resulted in anarchy for days with only a handful of armed mobsters causing the trouble. What would happen in this country if 10,000,000 armed citizens challenged the tyrants who attempted to shred the Constitution?
The end of the tyrants would occur very quickly.
No facts, no experience (my statements are based on the latter and weekly/daily observations/conversations), just vapid claims from a troll that has taken it upon itself to police every statement.
I provide facts on a regular basis. You provide none, just the standard right wing anger and nonsense.
Irrelevant..
They’re already pretty miserable. There going to be even more cranky in November. There won’t be any need to punish them further.
Another prediction Mike? You already said it was going to be a landslide for the “cough”.
I don’t know. The Brexit thing and anti-establishment mood is real.
It’s the same prediction and I don’t think that I wrote that it would be a landslide.
‘I don’t think that I wrote…’
Walking it back already? Might want to brush up on your Canadian.
https://idiotsguidetocanada.wordpress.com/
“I don’t think that I wrote” meant that my memory of my first prediction wasn’t perfect. Thanks to Southrustern.com I found it. Now we know with certainty that I didn’t predict a landslide.
Comment by MightyMike
2016-08-18 08:56:50
Yes, it’s a prediction, though I wouldn’t bet a lot of money on it. There are still 12 weeks to go.
I think its possible that the media is trying to play up the horse race to extend the drama and the revenue it generates.
I have felt at different times that the election would go one way or the other, and now I just don’t know.
I wonder what the next media frenzy will be about…
A number of posters here appear to making the opposite prediction. We’ll find out the result in 8½ weeks.
Now when you are a Canadian will you be MightyMike or MightyMichel ?
French first/given names (prénoms français)
(f) = feminine
(m) – Masculin
Michel (m)
Michèle (f)
List of Acadian & French-Canadian first/given names
http://www.acadian.org/firstnames.html - 202k -
“You already said it was going to be a landslide for the “cough”.”
So funny!
Irrelevant.
deplorable, miserable and repetitive
perturbed!
bewitched, bothered and bewildered!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fzZ4l2H5-w
I can picture it -
Les Deplorables
“Do you hear the people shout?
Screaming the cries of angry men?
Hillary has no clue about Les Dep.
Hillaryous is unelectable.
Already Amazon is selling “Deplorables” T-shirts on line. The backlash against Comrade Hillary is going to be epic, and amusing.
http://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-basket-of-deplorables-donald-trump-2016-9
“Basket of Deplorables”
Finally! A title for my rock opera!
Sing it Russy!
R people here still yakking against the Fed while stockpiling federal reserve notes?
ABQ was up 2% per my friend who was realturd-rookie of the yr.
Clean up in isle 4
Hillary just called 1/4 of the country deplorable racists.
Another way to say it…
Clean up in isle 4
Hillary just called 1/2 of the tax payers in the country deplorable racists.
If she had any sense of humor about all this she’d just call them trumplings. “Basket of Trumplings” sounds a lot more fun than “Basket of Deplorables”.
She’s probably low on that number.
Does everyone experience a delay before their posts appear? For me it seems take minutes between pressing submit and appearance. Not a complaint, just a question.
I think there’s something that vets them and if it feels sketchy about one sends it for manual approval. Things like URLS and cuss words seem to trigger it.
I must be on the auto-suspect list, or something. I’ve seen the delays for a long time.
I thought you seemed a little shady..
Gee, thanks!
I’ve noticed this as well, but only sometime. Some posts go up immediately.
I was thinking that there may be an automatic filter that throws posts into moderation if certain keywords are used.
And the rage rages on.
Trump threatens Iranian boats that make improper ‘gestures’ to U.S. vessels will be ‘shot out of the water’
PENSACOLA, Fla. — In a wide-ranging speech on Friday night, Donald Trump said that as president he would shoot Iranian boats out of the water if they make improper “gestures” toward American vessels, that Hillary Clinton is so protected from having to face consequences that she could murder someone in front of 20,000 witnesses and not face prosecution and that voters need to be “very, very vigilant” on Election Day.
Ever since he installed new campaign leadership about three weeks ago, Trump has softened his tone on the campaign trail and mostly stuck to prepared rally speeches loaded onto teleprompters. That level of discipline seemed to fade during a rally in a packed arena in the Florida panhandle on Friday night.
As Trump shared his plans to dramatically grow the “depleted military” and grow the number of Navy ships to 350, he brought up Iran, a country he has frequently said takes advantage of the United States’ generosity.
“And, by the way, with Iran, when they circle our beautiful destroyers with their little boats, and they make gestures at our people, that they shouldn’t be allowed to make, they will be shot out of the water,” Trump said to thunderous applause. Soon the crowd began to chant: “USA! USA! USA!”
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world/trump-threatens-iranian-boats-that-make-improper-gestures-to-u-s-vessels-will-be-shot-out-of-the-water
B-B-B-But Trump makes such a fuss about being against the Iraq and Afghanistan wars!
https://mises.org/blog/trump-half-right-military
We’re gonna build a war. The biggest, most beautiful war you’ve ever seen, believe me. And I know wars. I’ve been in many wars before, and I always win! And THEY always pay for it! It’s incredible.
+1
There’s a reason why they call that body of water the Persian Gulf.
“they are irredeemable”
Hillary Clinton calls half of Trump supporters bigoted ‘deplorables’
Ben Jacobs in Washington
@Bencjacobs
Saturday 10 September 2016 14.59 EDT
Hillary Clinton sparked a controversy Friday night after suggesting half of Donald Trump’s supporters belonged in “a basket of deplorables” which she described as consisting of “the racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic – you name it.”
She went to note “some of those folks – they are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America”.
In the remarks, at a New York fundraiser featuring Barbra Streisand, Clinton went further than she ever had in the past in suggesting that potentially half of Trump’s supporters were bigoted.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/10/hillary-clinton-trump-supporters–bigoted-deplorables - 675k -
Good to see the monkeying around stopped….. in a hurry.
This is you, and this is your mortgage:
http://imgur.com/a/zJdGS
You are a slave.
That mouse on the wheel doesn’t know how good he has it.
Snake eats mouse - Most Viewed - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JuQfpblygc - 206k -
Some friends of ours are putting together a Co-ed softball team and they can’t decide whether to name it the Deplorables or the Irredeemables.
Hillary Clinton calls half of Trump supporters bigoted ‘deplorables’
She went to note “some of those folks – they are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America”.
“Un-American Irredeemable Deplorables” seems a bit unwieldy.
If they are irredeemable, they cannot be sent to the re-education camps. They must go straight into the Gulag. For the children….
She regrets getting sh#t for it, not for saying it.
Clinton expresses regret for saying ‘half’ of Trump supporters are …
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/09/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-basket-of-deplorables/ - 347k -