The First Time It’s Never Been A Sure-Fire
A report from the New Zealand Herald. “Auckland property speculators are on-selling homes on the same day of purchase for huge profits, sometimes without even setting foot inside. Incredibly, one Auckland house was sold three times in a single day with its value surging by nearly $80,000 in less than 24 hours. Other astute buyers have ‘flipped’ their new purchases for instant profits worth tens of thousands of dollars, with one speculator pocketing $100,000 the same day they bought and sold a Papatoetoe house. One investor who buys and sells Auckland properties - sometimes on the same day - has defended the practice, labelling it ‘easy money’ in a rising market.”
“‘If you can swing a property deal once a week and make 20 or 30 grand, why would you not do that?’ said seasoned Tauranga-based investor Ian Stevenson. ‘Big money is chasing good profit here but it’s the market’s rise that’s driving it because they’re not fixing the Auckland problem.’”
News Limited on Australia. “Australia has roughly ’six weeks’ to prevent a housing market collapse caused by the banks’ crackdown on foreign investor lending, a US defence think tank has warned. The Washington-based International Strategic Studies Association argues ‘changes in local banking policies’ could see foreign direct investment in the property sector ‘decline markedly.’ ISSA president, West Australian-born Gregory Copley AM, told news.com.au the ‘banks’ caution is precipitating the market collapse.’”
“‘The banks clearly believe Australian real estate values will decline, so they are attempting to avoid that risk. They’ve learned from the US collapse that seizing real estate collateral is a no-win scenario when the volume is great and the market slow. In so doing, they precipitate the market collapse but are less exposed to it,’ he said.”
“NAB chief economist Alan Oster described the ISSA’s prediction of an imminent collapse as ‘garbage.’ ‘One of the big problems of apartments is most of them, we don’t know who’s funding them,’ he said. ‘If the big banks don’t know who’s funding them, then the bottom line is, basically the main risk is somewhere else. What the banks were trying to do with the tightening of apartment lending, particularly to foreigners, was make sure that if people were having trouble offshore they didn’t end up in the Australian banking system. To get any sort of problem you’ve really got to have something going wrong in China and then everybody selling their apartments at the same time. If they do that then it’s not an Australian problem, that’s a global problem.’”
The National Mirror on Nigeria. “Quite unexpectedly, house rent has crumbled to an all time low, under the weight of the current recession in the economy, and this has left people to wonder what was actually happening. Could it be that Nigerians have suddenly become more frugal in their spending habits in view of the bleak economic realities?”
“Alaoma John, resident of Wuse, observed that uncertainties about the future of the economy were responsible for the perceived fall in rent across the territory. ‘Many families who lived here before now have already moved to places where they could find low-cost accommodation at a discount even a three bedroom flat for less than a million Naira for a year. They prefer that to luxury homes just because of the bad economy right now,’ he said.”
“In his words, ‘Many families who have been living in these high brow districts are finding things tough these days, especially where their breadwinners who could be civil servants, businessmen or contractors were owed salaries for several months, had poor returns on business, had not been fully mobilised for contracts done.’”
“An estate developer, who preferred to be simply addressed as Engineer Ajani informed us that a bedroom flat that he had advertised for rent after much renovation work somewhere in Lugbe had not been taken by any tenant for over 10 months till date just because he left the rent at N350, 000 for a year without the option of staggered payments.”
“Barrister Adeyemi Moshood, corroborated the first respondent when he said that several houses all over the place, especially in Maitama, Asokoro and Wuse had been vacant for up to thirteen months now after their last occupants moved out. ‘Just drive around town, from Wuse to Maitama to Asokoro, all you will see would be the tags which hang around these houses, saying, ‘House For Rent,’ or ‘Vacant Accommodation, Please Call This Number…,’ and so on.’”
From CBC News in Canada. “Income properties used to be a pretty safe investment for many Calgarians, but the city’s rising vacancy rate is making some landlords nervous. Mark Hawkins, president of Rentfaster.ca, says landlords need to reflect the economy in their rates. ‘Because the market is very different than it was a year, what it was two years ago, the economy is way different here, so people have to react to that and adjust their prices,’ he said.”
“In addition to dropping rental rates, landlords should also consider other incentives, he added. ‘Being flexible on some other terms, like an early move-in date or not a year’s lease, maybe an eight-month lease, can be more important to the renter than a reduction of the rental rate.’”
“Ryan Kostel, who manages several rental properties in the city, says the energy sector downturn has changed the market. His parents invested in rental properties years ago, and they never had a problem finding tenants — until now. ‘I mean, I’ve only been helping out for the last few years but still, this is the first time it’s never been a sure-fire,’ he said.”
‘Incredibly, one Auckland house was sold three times in a single day with its value surging by nearly $80,000 in less than 24 hours’
It’s all fun till someone loses an eye.
This Australian article is worth reading in full:
‘It comes after Australia’s richest man, billionaire property developer Harry Triguboff, warned that a “very significant” number of Chinese buyers were now failing to settle their off-the-plan units and urgent action was needed. But Mr Triguboff, founder of Australia’s biggest apartment builder Meriton, warned the real risk was looming in the new wave of developments. As apartment price growth stalls or goes backwards, the risk of buyers walking away from their deposits grows.’
‘Earlier, broker CLSA predicted a looming apartment “crisis” that would be kicked off by a wave of defaults forcing smaller developers into receivership, pushing down prices and potentially causing wider contagion that could lead to a recession. The ISSA described moves by Australian banks from July this year to restrict or even withdraw funding to foreign property investors as “almost cartel-like policies”.
‘The piece quotes a “leading Australian property source” warning that by cutting off the foreign buyer sector completely, “it is much more likely to be a self-fulfilling prophesy by depressing demand, creating oversupply and putting downward pressure on prices, thereby creating paper losses at the settlement date which would tempt buyers to walk away”.
“It will likely also have a broader impact of depressing housing prices across the whole economy. It is a kneejerk response to fraud concerns,” the source was quoted as saying.’
“To my understanding the fraudulent activity has been linked mainly to one significant group, which has historically managed about 3000 sales into Australia each year.”
“And notwithstanding the doctoring of supporting documentation, the actual settlement rates had remained high. That one property group needs to be taken to task, not the whole industry.”
“Incredibly, one Auckland house was sold three times in a single day….”
Please explain the time-line logistics for this. Let’s start off with the first sale at 8am. There is no formal RECORDING of this sale, correct? May I assume the “listing” for the second sale is with the same agent? Did the agent merely take “back-up” contracts and ENFORCE each one as a separate sale? Is one agent C H U R N I N G the commission ?
’several houses all over the place…had been vacant for up to thirteen months now after their last occupants moved out. ‘Just drive around town, from Wuse to Maitama to Asokoro, all you will see would be the tags which hang around these houses, saying, ‘House For Rent,’ or ‘Vacant Accommodation, Please Call This Number…,’ and so on.’
This country was home to the most expensive housing in the world two years ago.
Everyone wants to live in Nigeria.
Just for kicks, I looked at the Olympic Village in Mexico City. My parents had us in an apartment there for a few years in the early 70’s.
What I found was that a 1000 sq ft flat there has an asking price of 4,200,000 pesos, about $200,000 USD! There were a few listed at that price, no idea if there were any takers, but given incomes there that price seems utterly outrageous. Plus the Villa Olimpica is not centrally located, it’s on the south end of town and the place is old and decrepit.
http://adrianaalzati.nocnok.com/properties/departamento-en-venta-en-villa-olimpica-miguel-hidalgo-distrito-federal-mx16-bx2568?PromoterId=248fe1cf-97ae-46d0-bdca-798ad2283640
According to link, it’s only $1500 USD a month with 10% down on a 20 year loan. I don’t think that even 10% of Mexico City’s population could afford that.
The bubble is FAR worse just about everywhere else.
An there’s an extra kicker. On 2070, ownership reverts to the Mexican government. Sure, most of us will be taking a dirt nap by then, but that sure does put a damper on the whole “safe deposit box” thing.
The wall goes up next year !
Like controlled the border w no tech and live rounds
IKE
Maybe it still is… to expensive for people to actually live in it.
N350,000/year equals U$1,100/year or $92/month.
I wonder if HA could build in Nigeria for $55/SF?
Survey: Connecticut residents looking to spend money, leave state
Mark Saunders Updated 3:23 pm, Monday, September 12, 2016
Connecticut residents are hopeful of their own finances, just not the state’s. Which may be leading them to consider moving out of Connecticut.
The Consumer Confidence Survey, conducted every fiscal quarter by the Connecticut Economic Resource Center (CERC) and released by InformCT, found that a large majority of residents think they may move out of the state in the next six months.
Forty-two percent of the survey’s respondents said they are very likely or somewhat likely to move out of the state in the next six months, a 10-percentage point increase from the second quarter of 2015.
“Slightly more than four in 10 Connecticut residents now say it is likely that they will move out of the state within the next five years, reflecting concerns about a lack of jobs, declining business conditions, and health insurance costs,” CERC said in their findings. “Yet, many residents continue to say that Connecticut is a good place to live and raise a family.”
http://www.ctpost.com/news/article/Survey-Connecticut-residents-looking-to-spend-9217785.php - 211k -
Follow the money….or in this case, the lack of it. A lot of Californians heading to Oregon because their money buys more to the north. I just plan to downsize and stay put!
And the MIC is afraid that if the Aussie housing bubble collapses they won’t be able to buy submarines for moar phony war.
Unbelievable. Fake economy, fake wars. We went from the broken window theory of economics and expanded it to a broken planet thanks to these scumbags.
‘Overthrowing other people’s governments: The Master List’
‘Instances of the United States overthrowing, or attempting to overthrow, a foreign government since the Second World War. (* indicates successful ouster of a government)’
Q: Why will there never be a coup d’état in Washington?
A: Because there’s no American embassy there.
burrrrn!
That’s some sweet venom right there.
Actually, they’re buying their submarines from France.
Irrelevant.
Really? It’s not if your sub leaks!
‘How Conservatives Lost the GOP’
‘Then Trump blew it all up. En route to the nomination, he paid nearly no heed to the usual litmus tests; he seemed to have no idea they existed. Instead, he spoke in terms of broadly shared contemporary concerns—from the pressures of the global economy to threats to national identity to a sense that America had lost its edge.’
‘The response from Trump’s opponents in the primaries was largely a resort to the familiar purity pageant. Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Trump’s strongest challenger, seemed to believe that by proving Trump was no conservative (which was easy enough) he would prove that Republicans shouldn’t vote for him. But “not a conservative” didn’t seem to be much of an insult to large swaths of Republican voters. And Trump eventually made the point explicit: “This is called the Republican Party. It’s not called the Conservative Party,” he said in May.’
‘He had a point. Conservatives are surely still the party’s most significant bloc, but we are not its owners. And to bring the party along we must convince other Republicans who are not first and foremost conservatives. In fact, Trump has reminded us of an important point: Conservatives, like progressives, are a distinct minority in American society, and can succeed only by winning over others who are not already like-minded. By imagining there was a majority coalition for orthodox conservative ideas when there wasn’t even one within the GOP, we neglected the hard work of reconsidering how our ideas might best apply to contemporary challenges. As a result, the right (like the left) simply hasn’t confronted some key 21st-century realities—perhaps, above all, the fragmentation and fracturing of America’s mid-20th-century institutions.’
‘Instead, both progressives and conservatives have tended to look backward to what they take to be America’s 20th-century heyday; it’s just they’re stuck on different years. One party pines for 1965, with its strong post-World War II emphasis on regulated economic corporatism and liberalizing culture. The other is trapped in nostalgia for 1981 and the Reagan revolution of American self-confidence and liberalizing economy. But the truth is, neither can be recaptured.’
‘Trump has been a painful shock for many conservatives. But at the least, he might offer an opportunity to rethink our relationship with the party we’ve long considered our own.’
I don’t believe in political dualisms like left right etc. But I heard a guys say once that our system quit working when one party became conservative and the other liberal. I thought about it and I could remember very well when there were liberals, conservatives and moderates in both parties! They would cross the aisles, form coalitions, agree to disagree. This polarity of ideology began, IMO around when the PTB coalesced around globalism starting with NAFTA. Then there was no labor party or small business party. Everybody agreed in DC it was big corporations and off go the jobs! Hurray!! We’ll be the worlds economic engine and consume our way to, well, a much richer China anyway. But hey, they’ll buy our bonds!
We gave it 30 plus years and it sucks. They know it, we know it.
We gave it 30 plus years
That’s my whole adult life and then some.
I remember driving up through Cleveland with my dad in the 1980s to go perch fishing on Lake Erie and asking him why the neighborhoods all looked so run down. And visiting family in Pittsburgh and driving past miles of idle steel mills.
In case you forgot, NAFTA was a bipartisan creation.
I still own a suit I inherited made by Richman Brothers, at their (as of circa 2008 last time I drove that street) idle factory on East 55th Street near St Clair or Superior. Get that thing dry cleaned and it looks brand new. Made by workers, many of whom probably owned their own homes in Cleveland, and whose children were the first in their families to attend and graduate college.
But we’ve got NYC and SF! Two fawkin slums that all the flunkies point to while denying there is anything wrong.
Rigged markets and fixed prices at grossly inflated levels is the end result of all the govt meddling, shitty trade agreements and the frauderal reserve.
Oh, man, that’s it right there. Globalization bites the big one. It’s really stinkin’ out the joint, that’s fer sure.
Anyway, Obama Goons called it. Hillaryious is unelectable. The DNC, hoist by their own pee-tard, Hillary. Film at 11.
Too much free stuff like freedom.
That says a lot about you. Are you an authoritarian voting for Dump then?
WTF are you talking about? I never said too much free stuff like freedom.
I think you must’ve hit your head and not your stomach during that little bicycle episode.
Don’t get your panties in a twist. I intended the response to xyz below but it got put here.
I do- governmentarian and private market
trump and Hilary are both governmentarians
vulgarian / nannyist
So does Trump have a right to steal the resources of other countries he deems “enemies?”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/09/11/top-trump-adviser-rudy-giuliani-until-the-war-is-over-anythings-legal/?postshare=9001473647056390&tid=ss_fb
“”Conservatives lost the GOP”
And the progressive racists took it over.
Things are falling apart now in America, Europe and the western world because we got too much free stuff–like freedom, wealth, health and opportunities. It’s like rich kids born with silver spoons in their mouths. Things never turn out good.
It’s as old as the Bible. So what the world needs now is a REAL war and suffering and privation. Not the phony crap that passes for suffering in America today.
Lots of people displaying phony cynicism and wisdom–let’s see how that plays when things really get bad.
“Lots of people displaying phony cynicism and wisdom–let’s see how that plays when things really get bad.”
As someone who has fallen victim to this on occasion (and got smacked out of it by Ben once or twice), great comment. It’s real easy to do when you’re sitting in AC, banging away at the keyboard and no bombs are falling and no one’s kicking the door in to get something to sell for a fix.
phony crap that passes for suffering in America today
We’re about one electro-magnetic pulse attack, massive hack, sunspot interference, and/or grid failure away from that happening. Remember New Orleans post-Katrina? Do you understand the logistics and complexity of “just in time” accounting for re-supply?
I almost got stranded in Akron in 2003 when the Northeast grid went down, I pumped some gas about an hour before everything shut down, then I made it back to Columbus and waited two days to go back to work.
xyz: So what the world needs now is a REAL war and suffering and privation. Not the phony crap that passes for suffering in America today.
Thanks Jamie.
“While he said Democrats should not discount anger in the electorate this year, he said he doesn’t think most Americans appreciate how good the nation’s position is in the world, or how strong the economy is… He [Dimon] cited the nation’s university system, its work ethic, its innovation, its financial markets and the rule of law as tremendous advantages for the United States and its economy.”
Hilarious for Dimon to cite the rule of law as a tremendous advantage. Haven’t the last ten years demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt that JP Morgan Chase is above the law?
It is amusing that one of The Untouchables touts the rule of law. But it makes sense, right? The rule of law is why he can’t be touched for his and his executives’ fraud.
And not to be snide, but it is true that conditions in the United States are excellent, relative to historical terms or relative to the developing world.
However, people see their own wealth eroding, see opportunities for their children dropping, and wonder why that would be in a world of advancing technology and wealth. Especially in contrast to what they see for Wall Street for example, or other sectors doing well.
It’s all very simple, our current problems (social, economic, housing prices, wars, etc.) are the result of naked, unadulterated GREED. And this greed is unprecedented in world history. It’s just a function of humans since that’s the way we’ve always been.
There’s no use complaining about it since it’s not going away. Now, individual people can make decisions to live a “better” life, but today that’s not in fashion since the concept of “better” implies that some ways of life are better than others. Today it’s old fashion, racist, bigoted to believe in absolutes and morality.
So we get what we get. BTW, not all cultures or societies in the world are in the same mess as America and the West. But, who cares, we can complain about things on the interent.
I have no kids, and don’t give a fig about the future past the next 50 years. I’ve been living really well for the past 20.
For my purposes, America is pretty damn great as it is.
“I have no kids, and don’t give a fig about the future past the next 50 years. I’ve been living really well for the past 20.”
Let me guess, if you were at Omaha Beach, when the ramp went down on your landing craft you’d be found hitching a ride back to the transport ship.
Like I said, America is in trouble because people got too much stuff for free. Which is exactly opposite to what people did during the war and after–that generation worked hard so that their children and grandchildren would have a better world.
And things worked out better than anyone could have imagined in 1941. Too bad we’ve pissed it all away.
But what happens, Sport, when you have a heart attack and the E.R. that they take your worthless body to has too many patients and too few doctors, and you end up dead or a cripple because they couldn’t treat you in time?
I hope that you’ll enjoy wearing those soiled Depends in the really smelly SNF you’ll end up in (and you won’t have any visitors).
“Let me guess, if you were at Omaha Beach, when the ramp went down on your landing craft you’d be found hitching a ride back to the transport ship.
Like I said, America is in trouble because people got too much stuff for free. Which is exactly opposite to what people did during the war and after–that generation worked hard so that their children and grandchildren would have a better world.”
War monger logic: “Freedom is not free.” You have to be kidnapped and forced to kill people some rulers do not like in order to be free. You should be forced to stand for a colorful rag so that you can honor freedom. You should be forced to sing why you like freedom.”
DER.
Neocon troll alert
It’s why a vast majority of Great Depression folks were so honest, frugal and productive?
‘Metro Atlanta’s building boom will be slowing down soon, Rajeev Dhawan said. Referring to new multifamily housing permits in the region, which went up to just over 4,000 in May, he said, “I think our peak is this year. … There has to be moderation, with both single-family housing and multi-family.”
‘Dhawan, the director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University’s J. Mack Robinson College of Business in downtown Atlanta, spoke on that topic and much more. Dhawan showed renderings of planned metro Atlanta projects, mostly apartment buildings, including at least one each in Buckhead and Sandy Springs.’
“If they get built, it’s a super big boost. But some may not happen,” he said, referring to an earlier rendering of a planned Dunwoody development that has been canceled.’
‘Dhawan made no predictions on who would win the election but said, “In my 20 years of forecasting elections’ [effects on the economy], this is the most populist one, by a factor of five.”
‘During a question-and-answer session following his speech, attendee Josh Oster-Morris asked why the Fed continues to buy assets, including $2 trillion recently, instead of canceling some of the U.S. Treasury debt it owns, and if it has any credibility with the economy anymore.’
‘In response, Dhawan said, “We are in a jam if a recession happens [now] because we’re in trade wars. If you can’t trade, nobody’s buying the stuff, so monetary policy is important. And regarding your question about the credibility of shoring up the economy, these guys will come to the rescue. They have come to the rescue for more than 20 years.”
‘If you can’t trade, nobody’s buying the stuff, so monetary policy is important’
That’s why you make the big bucks Rajeev.
Where’s Sean Snaith these days?
What a coincidence, I read this earlier today:
‘With the national economic recovery in its eighth year, economist Sean Snaith predicts the possibility of a downturn in 12 to 18 months. He bases that on several indicators, including economic growth nationally “shows the initial descent into recession.”
‘He said the next recession might not be as severe as the December 2007-June 2009 experience known as the “Great Recession” and could be minor by comparison. He doesn’t see a repeat of the dot.com bust of 2001 or the housing and mortgage crisis of the mid-2000s.’
“I don’t see any of the gauges on red,” Snaith said. He considers a lot of the threats are coming from international conditions.’
‘Nonetheless, once a recession begins, the psychological domino effect sets in. “These things start to snowball,” Snaith said.’
“The nation as a whole is not growing terribly fast,” Snaith said, calling the recovery subpar. Unlike the V-shaped recovery predicted by some economists, in which the economy recovers as steeply as it plunged, Snaith has long predicted a “gravy-boat” recovery.’
‘That is a shallower and longer recovery before the economy grows strongly, although Snaith said Friday that “growth never did pick up.”
‘In the six full calendar years since the recession ended, real annual GDP growth has not exceeded the 2.5 percent it reached in 2010, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.’
Ah, Sean Snaith, the Souffle Man! A little walk down HBB memory lane:
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=1980
December 10, 2006. That was a long time ago. Some of those papers don’t exist anymore:
The Reporter from California. “Economic growth in the Vallejo-Fairfield metropolitan area will be among the strongest in the region, says a recently released study. ‘Part of the story,’ said professor of business economics Sean Snaith, ‘is housing and the larger trend of this demographic shift from the coastal areas of California, inland.’”
“Much of that migration was driven by the real estate boom in recent years, and though Snaith admits ‘that party is coming to an end,’ he said, ‘by no means is this going to be a bubble crashing.’”
“In fact, the business school likens the housing market not to a bubble, but a souffle. ‘A bubble is something that’s driven by speculation,’ Snaith explained. In terms of the housing market, he said, ’speculation wasn’t the key driver.’”
The LA Daily News. “It had to happen sometime. The median price of a San Fernando Valley house had to fall. Last month it finally did, by just less than 1 percent. And, just maybe, November brought us a glimpse of what the residential real estate landscape is going to look like for months to come.”
“‘We’re kind of right at the price point now that we’re going to have to get used to,’ said John Karevoll, an analyst at DataQuick. He’s neither a cheerleader nor a market basher. He simply interprets the numbers. ‘We’re way ahead of the game. It just depends on how much of the gains we made in the past four years we get to keep. Is it 95 percent, 90 percent or all of it?’”
The Orange County Register. “With the housing boom over, its dark side is coming to light, including fraud. Pam Houchen, the former mayor of Huntington Beach who helped dupe lenders and borrowers in a real estate scam, is a good example of a national phenomenon.”
“Mortgage fraud, ballooned as the housing market heated up, according to government data and industry experts. That’s bad news to the many mortgage companies based in Orange County, because they face losses when fraud involves inflated home prices.”
“Peter Norell, who leads a Santa Ana-based white-collar crime unit of the FBI, said fraud is being fueled by the volatile housing market, an increase in loans available to consumers and the widespread use of automated lending systems. ‘The market is riper than ever before’ for fraud, Norell said.”
“For a seven-county area that includes Orange County, 4,326 suspicious banking activity reports were filed in fiscal 2006, nearly double from 2005, according to the FBI. And the 2005 total was up 30 percent from the prior year.”
“Don Currie, founder of HighTechLending Inc. in Newport Beach, said loan volume is falling with the market, and people who work on commission are struggling to keep up their incomes. ‘A lot of people go to desperate measures to keep their production and lifestyles up,’ Currie said.”
“And more consumers stretch the truth when home prices or interest rates are high, Currie and others said. They exaggerate their income and assets to qualify for loans.”
“Sometimes customers lie when buying a second home; borrowers falsely say they will live there in order to qualify for better interest rates, he said. Currie said the second-home lie contributes to defaults and foreclosures, which hurt the market. In tough times, an owner will default on a second home before his own home, he said.”
“‘It’s probably one of the most rampant misrepresentations that you have,’ Currie said.”
The Contra Costa Times. “Christopher George, (founder of) a San Ramon-based mortgage firm, is on the front lines of the housing market in the Bay Area. The once-muscular realty sector has turned flabby lately. And some home owners are getting unpleasant surprises from their adjustable-rate mortgages as bigger payments kick in.”
“Q What’s your assessment of the housing market in the Bay Area? A ‘We are still in a flat and, in most cases, a declining market. There seems to be more inventory on the market. Most folks are still questioning whether they need to be aggressive in reducing their prices so they can sell their home.’”
“Q Are sellers still in denial? A ‘Those people who do not think they are in denial are still in denial. I think a lot of people have seen the market soften before and have seen it correct itself very quickly. They figure that in a couple of months the market will come back and surge again. But this is different. This is very different.’”
“Q How is it so different? The difference in the housing decline is far deeper this time than it has ever been. Interest rates have gone up. Folks have stopped making multiple offers. This time we see a lot of things that are problematic for the industry. Foreclosures are up, not just in Northern California, but also above the nation. In some cases foreclosure rates here have doubled, tripled, even quadrupled. But the big change is early payment defaults on mortgages.’”
“Q What is happening with these defaults? A ‘They involve people who have defaulted on their mortgage in the first six to 24 months of their mortgage. They can’t pay their mortgage because they did not state their income properly, or their payments have gone up because they had option ARM mortgages.’”
“Q How have all the foreclosures affected the Bay Area housing market? A ‘You have created a whole new reason to depress the market by flooding it with more inventory. This inventory largely is coming from lenders who have these homes that have defaulted. In some cases they aren’t even in foreclosure yet. There s a lot of pressure on home prices right now.’”
‘We’re kind of right at the price point now that we’re going to have to get used to,’ said John Karevoll, an analyst at DataQuick. He’s neither a cheerleader nor a market basher. He simply interprets the numbers. ‘We’re way ahead of the game. It just depends on how much of the gains we made in the past four years we get to keep. Is it 95 percent, 90 percent or all of it?’
I’ll take D John. I was taking D back then too.
“December 10, 2006. That was a long time ago. Some of those papers don’t exist anymore:”
Neither do some of the posters.
Almost ten years on. And I think I started about a year earlier.
It’s been quite a ride and it looks as if we’re almost full circle.
Hey, Ben, thanks for all of this. I have thoroughly enjoyed it.
Indeed. Thanks for keeping this going, and putting up with us. Your commitment to free speech has cost you dearly in irritation.
Can’t believe I’ve been reading and posting to this blog for over 10 years! Gracias Ben, Prof. Bear, TxChick, Combotechie and the legions of others who taught me how real economics work. I even learned a lot from the gold bugs and the poster who moved off to Erie. Some of those people caught a lot of crap but they had information to share and some of it was worthwhile. ABQ Dan and Rio notwithstanding
“Gracias Ben, Prof. Bear, TxChick, Combotechie and the legions of others who taught me how real economics work.”
De nada. The real world is a lot different than textbook models suggest, as I continue to learn from participating in this rollicking extended conversation.
+1, thanks very much Ben, have been following the HBB off and on since 2005 or so and it has been highly educational and entertaining (though the Joshua Tree extension is an absolute must for me now
Anyway thanks in part to the HBB sold my last place quickly in early 2007 (bought it in ‘97) and the proceeds helped me to retire early and debt free in 2012. (and did donate to the blog when my place sold)
Article about sprawl development in Atlanta:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/09/12/us/atlanta-beltline.html
Live where you want to, it’s a free country. I moved to an urban neighborhood at age 19 and have lived in one the majority of my life since then. To each his own…
With millions of Democrat-on-Arrival illegals and resettled refugees from neocon wars flooding in, “sprawl” and slums are going to be the new normal.
What markets are still perky?
Dc inventory is tight,but prices are up only 2% yoy.
That’s not enough to pay for repairs etc.
Anyway, back to weawestate. Here’s a little gem from one of the local fishwraps in South Hillsborough County, Tampa Bay:
http://www.observernews.net/2016/09/07/lennar-to-build-183-half-million-dollar-homes-in-ruskin/
Whoopee! Lennar’s taking sloppy seconds from the Key West style homes that were built in 2005-2007.
“The developer recently paid $17 million for 190 home sites with 183 still available.
Seven luxury homes were previously built by Bahia Sun, a prior developer.
The community began in 2005 during the economic boom but slowed around 2007 and in 2009, the site was foreclosed on by the lenders.”
You’d have to live around here and have visited the site back in the day to know what a complete joke this is. This is really putting lipstick on a pig, the pig being a stinking (and I do mean stinking), swampy spit of land with a man-made beach next to where the Little Manatee river empties into Tampa Bay. And that’s not all that has emptied into Tampa Bay. After Tropical Storm Hermine, there’s this:
http://www.tampabay.com/news/environment/water/tampa-bays-sewage-mess-29-million-gallons-spilled-into-the-bay-and-rising/2292477
29 million gallons of sewage dumped into the bay.
“Today’s new normal counsels prudence in the removal of policy accommodation,” Brainard, one of six permanent voters on the Fed’s rate-setting committee, told the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
…
“Incredibly, one Auckland house was sold three times in a single day with its value surging by nearly $80,000 in less than 24 hours.”
Think there’s any fraud there?
I’m not even short and this was disgusting today. I’m not long either. I’m a spider monkey.
fraud?
I don’t know what you mean by fraud in this context.
One can claim “fraud” in many things, like if you are trying to hide something and do another.
For example, do I think Brainard directly was profiting off the NZ houses? Like directly fraud?
Probably not.
Indirectly, of course, it’s all “fraud”.
Even still, I don’t think there’s much “fraud” in the sense of intentionally deceiving people.
The Fed has been quite open about their intentions.
They are openly telling us.
For example..
If there were people in the Fed, or even the Fed governors themselves, and they all agreed that they were going to adjust rates or QE’s to some level, as a normal part of their business. (They are a private company).
And then they personally went out and bought or sold securities in advance, to personally profit from their own decisions.
Yes, that would be fraud.
Do I think they are doing it? I dunno. At this point I wouldn’t be surprised with anything I guess.
My only reason for posting that was the whole:
“The new normal”.
Smacks of previous “new normals”.
And the contrast of what happens when you are in a “new normal”. Talking to _Global Affairs_.
“It’s different this time.”
Fraud
Crushin!
I respect you, but please tell me in more detail why you say Fraud. I don’t disagree with you inherently, but I answered your question as best I could, and all I got from you was “Fraud”.
Can you please explain more?
I’m not a shill from the democrats.
Remember, I am one who buys gold in large quantities and very much distrusts in the Fed and the government.
But you just say “Fraud”, without any explanation, and I want to know why you think that before I will ever believe anything you say.
Falling housing prices.
I never got my ice-cream shipment.
Russian ice-cream. I think it is now a dream.
One good book:
Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal
It’s not a novel but a collection of good articles, a few from Alan Greenspan.
fraaaaaud
People are getting paid to do this.
What Correct The Record can’t do online, they’ll hire people to do it in person.
Fresh violence at Trump rally as supporter allegedly punches protester:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/12/donald-trump-rally-protester-punched-north-carolina
Scott Adams (Dilbert guy) does it again:
“Our next president will either be an offensive, rich, divisive, bigot with a bad haircut or Donald Trump.”
‘A former Democratic National Committee chairman says President Barack Obama and the party’s congressional leaders should immediately come up with a process to identify a potential successor candidate for Hillary Clinton for the off-chance a health emergency forces her out of the race.’
“Now is the time for all good political leaders to come to the aid of their party,” said Don Fowler, who helmed the DNC from 1995 to 1997, during Bill Clinton’s presidency, and has backed Hillary Clinton since her 2008 presidential bid. “I think the plan should be developed by 6 o’clock this afternoon.”
Is that Eastern time or Pacific Don?
It’s gonna be cold up there this winter Mike.
Nonsense! Americans need a president that keels over in a stiff breeze.
Changing Horses in the Middle of a Stream
“People are getting paid to do this.”
Yes, to the tune of about 100 billion dollars, if you count all the donations that one dude is investigating of the clinton crime syndicate.
No wonder they are propping up a half-dead corpse. A lot of money to be lost. A lot.
Ben’s post yesterday of Comfortably Numb was spot on. It really was.
Ben,
That whole album is almost a direct picture of the clintons, their walls, everything.
You nailed it.
“In a phone interview with CNN’s Anderson Cooper on Monday night, Clinton said she was feeling better and insisted that she did not faint on Sunday.”
Zoomed into Hillary Clinton’s foot shows she out cold - @OpieRadio …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXPAmQMXDbA - 219k
SHOCK VIDEO: Hillary Clinton Collapses Leaving 9/11 Memorial …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVDyciOQCak - 470k -
“Clinton said she was feeling better and insisted that she did not faint on Sunday.”
And Bill didn’t have sex with that woman.
Believe it or not, she’s actually telling the truth. She didn’t faint. She spazzed out and went unconscious.
‘Tis but a scratch!
Coming soon, Obama saves the Republic. He’s ready for his close-up. His surrogate, David Axelrod, is already talkin’.
Once again, Obama foils the Clintons. It’s for the children. Er, uh, the Republic.
Film at 11.
Advice from late American author David Foster Wallace:
“He told me that judging the merits of these short pieces was about as exact as throwing them down the stairs and seeing which ones made it the farthest, then tacked on a warning: “Make sure you check it over for typos and errors.” And he then tacked on another: “More than once.”
“You do not make grammatical errors when you’re swinging for the fences,” Wallace said during the first class, only instead of “errors”, he used a word I’m assuming is unprintable in British newspapers.
“If you’re more interested in what you’re saying than the person listening to you is, you’re the definition of a boring person.”
https://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2016/sep/12/david-foster-wallace-my-teacher
Sly & the Family Stone — If It Were Left Up To Me:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTN4BJbDt58
So I guess Los Angeles and San Francisco can’t listen on the radio to the Monday Night Football game between the Steelers and Redskins.
“As we celebrate mediocrity all the boys upstairs want to see
How much you’ll pay for what you used to get for free”
‘‘The banks clearly believe Australian real estate values will decline, so they are attempting to avoid that risk. They’ve learned from the US collapse that seizing real estate collateral is a no-win scenario when the volume is great and the market slow. In so doing, they precipitate the market collapse but are less exposed to it,’ he said.’
‘NAB chief economist Alan Oster described the ISSA’s prediction of an imminent collapse as ‘garbage.’ ‘One of the big problems of apartments is most of them, we don’t know who’s funding them,’ he said. ‘If the big banks don’t know who’s funding them, then the bottom line is, basically the main risk is somewhere else.’
‘most of them, we don’t know who’s funding them’
If I buy a used car with cash my bank wants to know what I’m doing with the money. “We don’t know, maybe they found it in a couch!”
I’m officially old. I’ve never heard of Pepe the Frog, and according to my kids he’s totally old.
LOL, my friend, I hear ya. I’ve learned a lot this election season, and Pepe was one of the things I learned about. Birthed in the depths of 4-chan. “Feels good, man.”
I’ve also learned about “dank memes” and that if you’re “based”, you’re cool. Oh, and sh*tposting. Trump became much beloved on 4-chan for his sh*tposting abilities and for being the JEB!slayer.
Snek. Kek. Centipedes. Airhorns. Knife Party. The Can’t Stump the Trump series (available on youtube).
You’ll know you’ve made it when some whippersnapper calls you a “based vintage centipede”.
And to think, a year and a half ago I was looking forward to another dreary election cycle, the JEB! vs. Hillary match-up. Oh, the agony!
And then Trump came down that escalator. Whew! What a ride it’s been.
The escalator scene made me laugh and laugh. What a deluded twatwaffle, thought I.
…and then…
I look at 4chan from time to time. There seems to be some dismay about their coming to the attention of “normies”.
The racial slurs on /pol/ are vicious, but inventive. No one holds back.
I’ve identified an entire category of people worthy of court-ordered sterilization. Besides Hillary voters, that is.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3785961/Apple-fans-begin-queueing-new-iPhone-7-FIVE-DAYS-ahead-release-professional-sitters-charging-2-500-week-save-spot.html
They don’t breed anyway… these people are clones of the yuppie couple from the beginning of idiocracy.
HuffPo Headline:
https://i.sli.mg/TqOG3y.png
I dunno if this was a real headline or someone’s meme mock-up, but I nearly killed myself laughing.
I like it. Political correctness chucked right out the window.
I was kind of surprised to see right wingers calling for political correctness the other day. I made a stupid little game called “Day of the Trumplings” (http://store.steampowered.com/app/517060), and there was quite the kerfluffle on the associated message board. The term “hate speech” was thrown around, and a bunch of people tried to get the game pulled from the store. Of course, I had a grand old time with the irony of it all.
It did give me some idea what the HBB would look like without Ben’s tireless moderation. There are some real chuckleheads out there.
Southborough, MA Housing Prices Tank 4% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/southborough-ma/market-trends/
O Canada - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwDvF0NtgdU - 171k -
Never too early to get started.
Official French
Ô Canada!
Terre de nos aïeux,
Ton front est ceint de fleurons glorieux!
Car ton bras sait porter l’épée,
Il sait porter la croix!
Ton histoire est une épopée
Des plus brillants exploits.
Et ta valeur, de foi trempée,
Protégera nos foyers et nos droits.
Protégera nos foyers et nos droits.
Translation by Parlimentary translation bureau:
O Canada,
land of our ancestors
Glorious deeds circle your brow
For your arm knows how to wield the sword
Your arm knows how to carry the cross;
Your history is an epic
of brilliant deeds
And your valour steeped in faith
will protect our homes and our rights,
Will protect our homes and our rights.
More from Floyd:
Welcome to the machine:
Where have you been?
It’s alright we know where you’ve been
You’ve been in the pipeline, filling in time
Provided with toys and ’scouting for boys’
You brought a guitar to punish your ma
And you didn’t like school, and you
Know you’re nobody’s fool
So welcome to the machine
How I wish, how I wish you were you here.
Flash: Trump tells the truth again
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-says-fed-chief-yellen-114816250.html
The oligarchy can’t impose its full surveillance state and looting of the proles until we have a cashless society.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-12/financial-crisis-has-morphed-growth-crisis-rogoff-warns-cash-not-forever-its-curse
ZIRP (soon to be NIRP) and QE-to-Infinity are the Fed’s most lucrative swindles against the 99%, costing savers and the prudent $500 billion a year in lost interest income while lavishing trillions in printing-press “stimulus” on the Fed’s favored banksters so they can buy up the assets of the increasingly pauperized middle and working classes and engage in reckless speculation.
The Oliopoly media offers a typical fawning propaganda spin on Crooked Hillary’s physical unfitness to be president.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clintons-impulse-to-power-through-with-pneumonia-set-off-cascade-of-problems/2016/09/12/a887074c-791b-11e6-ac8e-cf8e0dd91dc7_story.html
No need to fret about rate hikes during election season, FOMC saber wrattling notwithstanding to the contrary.
Bloomberg
German Bonds Rally as Brainard Stokes Wagers on More Cheap Money
Anooja Debnath
September 13, 2016 — 2:49 AM PDT
There’s now a less than 1-in-4 chance of September Fed hike
Bund yields drop from highest close since Brexit referendum
German 10-year bunds rose for the first time in four days, following Treasuries higher, after Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard’s dovish comments encouraged traders to pare bets on an imminent U.S. interest-rate increase.
Benchmark bund yields fell from the highest since the Brexit vote in June after Brainard, speaking in Chicago on Monday, cautioned “prudence” in tightening policy. That’s leading investors to wonder whether global policy makers will, after all, keep open the supply of bond-boosting cheap money — days after the European Central Bank sent securities tumbling by failing to expand quantitative easing.
…
Drudge Report and Breitbart readership figures are hitting record highs as even the dullest of the sheeple are starting to see right through the Oligopoly media’s lies, propaganda, and DNC talking points.
https://www.similarweb.com/blog/us-media-publishers-august-2016
“‘The banks clearly believe Australian real estate values will decline, so they are attempting to avoid that risk. They’ve learned from the US collapse that seizing real estate collateral is a no-win scenario when the volume is great and the market slow. In so doing, they precipitate the market collapse but are less exposed to it,’ he said.”
European nations continue to reap the benefits of Soros-sponsored fundamental transformation.
http://www.businessinsider.com/german-police-arrest-3-syrians-suspected-of-being-sent-by-isis-2016-9
While 95% of the ‘Murican electorate bent over for crony capitalism by voting for its water carriers in 2008 and 2012, China’s downtrodden peasants and workers have grown increasingly restive and fed up.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/13/wukan-village-china-police-battles-protest
Wells Fargo fired 5,300 workers for illegal sales push. Executive in charge retiring with $125 million.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/09/13/wells-fargo-fired-5300-workers-for-illegal-sales-push-executive-in-charge-retiring-with-125-million/?postshare=1741473771242479&tid=ss_tw-bottom
It’s their fault for not working harder like the boss.
No, they didn’t work smarter.
Ton front est ceint de fleurons glorieux!
stocks and homes have made a lot of people a lot of money!
Someone around says all the time sez this woman is unelectable.
Now someone at zerohedge sez the same thing…. all time.
Coincidence?
“Hillary Became Unelectable Long Ago”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-13/hillary-became-unelectable-long-ago