It’s Not A Strategy, It’s Just A Moment In Time
A report from Domain News on Australia. “The apartment boom of the past four years is on a precipice and approvals will drop by more than 50 per cent in the downturn, a property research house predicts. Highrise building will hit a peak in the 2017 financial year as every capital city except Sydney faces too many homes, after a ‘once in a generation apartment boom,’ BIS Shrapnel associate director Kim Hawtrey said. ‘We’re getting way ahead of ourselves [with development]. Pumped up by investors it is theme-park scary how much we are building,’ Dr Hawtrey said.”
“Domain Group chief economist Andrew Wilson agreed the building cycle would face a decline in the next few years. ‘There are no drivers to support the current record levels of apartment development,’ Dr Wilson said. ‘[Approval levels] are already falling away in all capitals other than Sydney. It’s no surprise given how lengthy the boom has been that supply has moved ahead of demand in some capital cities.’”
From SBS News. “Investors should avoid medium and high density apartments in most Australian markets, a property investment expert warns. Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA) chair Ben Kingsley says one and two bedroom units are facing headwinds from potential tenant shortages and large amounts of supply coming onto the market in the next 18 to 24 months. ‘They (Brisbane apartment investors) are up for some risks - in terms of properties not valuing at purchase price if they’re bought off the plan and potentially significant fire sales on rent to attract tenants so they can get some income in from that,’ Mr Kinsgley said.”
“‘Most investors are playing the long game, 47 per cent of them are actually deriving an income from their portfolio,’ Mr Kingsley said. ‘This whole argument is around negative gearing being a strategy; it’s not a strategy, it’s just a moment in time.’”
The Daily Telegraph. “Unit prices have begun to fall in once-booming inner Sydney suburbs and the trend may spread to other areas, real estate analysts warn. With unit supply increasing at a faster rate than detached housing supply, the median price of apartments in Rushcutters Bay fell 24.7 per cent over the past quarter. In nearby Elizabeth Bay and the CBD, unit prices fell by more than 7 per cent, while Surry Hills and Paddington had falls of about 5 per cent, Core Logic data showed.”
“‘With so much new supply being delivered to the market in the form of units, we are already seeing (slower) growth rates for units compared to houses,’ Core Logic head of research Tim Lawless said. ‘As these unit projects come to completion and ultimately settlement, the underperformance of new unit stock could create headwinds for the market in certain geographies.’”
The Courier Mail. “Industry experts BIS Shrapnel analysis released in Brisbane yesterday warned every state except New South Wales would go into oversupply but Queensland would emerge with the worst figures in the country. Queensland was expected to be oversupplied to the tune of 11,200 dwellings by June next year, rising to a 26,400 come June 2018. Victoria was expected to be 6,900 oversupplied next year escalating to 22,200 by mid 2018.”
“BIS Shrapnel managing director Robert Mellor, said ‘this is really an unsustainable cycle driven by overbuilding of high density apartments.’”
“The downturn in investor demand was already beginning to show in Brisbane, Melbourne and other markets, he said. He said anyone who thought the housing boom could continue ‘indefinitely’ only needed to look at the collapse in the Perth market. ‘Anyone associated with the mining industry knows booms do not last forever,’ he said.”
From NT News. “It’s good news for tenants with new data showing Darwin rent prices dropped in August. According to CoreLogic, Darwin rental prices fell 9.4 per cent in the 12 months to the end of August. Nightcliff resident Caitlin Bender said the dropping rents made it possible for her to lease an apartment on her own. The 23-year-old said expensive rents were a well-known part of living in Darwin but she was hopeful prices would continue to fall. ‘It would be nice but it would be bad for investors,’ she said.”
I can’t use any of the text, but if you can read this you’ll know the Australian bubble has popped:
https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Finance-squeeze-hurting-Perth-land-market
‘Most investors are playing the long game, 47 per cent of them are actually deriving an income from their portfolio’
I’d say most aren’t.
$150 for a carton of eggs - a preview of coming attractions once the collectivist kleptocrats of the DNC have established their permanent Democrat supermajority and launched their “redistribution of the wealth” while the Fed prints away all government and corporate debts. Forward, Soviet!
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/8924/venezuela-death-spiral
It’s for the children.
Hope and change.
Not so much wealth inequity now.
Wonder how the free sh*t army is doing now that they have a government totally devoted to giving away free sh*t
The FSA is in for the shock of their lives as our oligarch-looted economy and shrinking tax base forces the Comrades of Proven Worth to prioritize steering patronage and graft to their billionaire donors rather than keep throwing money down the sewers to the FSA ingrates.
And next in line are public unions…
Then trial lawyers…
I’m going to feel pure schadenfreude when the Comrades of Proven Worth at the NEA get thrown under the bus. Talk about Karma in its purest form. They destroyed our public education system; now let them live out their golden years in cardboard boxes.
Get a room, you two!
I get such a kick out of Raymond. Irrepressible.
Keep gettin’ them “comrades of proven worth”, Ray!
We must resettle more refugees/Democrat dependency voters from neocon wars. Our permanent Democrat supermajority isn’t going to build itself, you know.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-14/hillbama-administration-plans-admit-least-110000-refugees-2017
The Comrades of Proven Worth (D) are trying to scare off anyone who wants to peruse the Democrat’s hacked files for dirty laundry.
https://pjmedia.com/trending/2016/09/14/interim-dnc-chair-warns-not-to-look-at-new-hack-could-have-malware/
Scott Adams (Dilbert guy) tweets some real gems:
“Is it my imagination, or is Clinton losing a fight with a cartoon frog?”
“The best candidate for keeping America’s secrets is one who:
-Lost thousands of emails
-Won’t show you his taxes”
That guy has a lot in common with Trump. He’s arrogant, offensive and wrong. He also retweets stuff from bigots.
Irrelevant
Bigot = anyone who disagrees with the clean negro president or his shake sidekick.
“I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy,”
– Joe Biden, 2009
Definition of a prig:
http://www.dictionary.com/browse/prig
noun
1.
a person who displays or demands of others pointlessly precise conformity, fussiness about trivialities, or exaggerated propriety, especially in a self-righteous or irritating manner.
2)a self-righteously moralistic person who behaves as if superior to others.
synonyms: prude, puritan, killjoy; informal goody-goody, goody two-shoes
And palmetto would like to humbly submit a variation on the word:
Prigot. Used in a sentence: Mikey is the HBB’s resident prigot.
Yeah, that’s it. Just keep making up wacky definitions. Maybe someone will go for it someday.
I’m a killjoy, just ruining the fun. I’m sure that I could find a dozen examples of you acting “self-righteously moralistic person who behaves as if superior to others”, ranting and raving about the FSA and whatnot, thus showing you to be a hypocrite.
But I am superior.
You farted in the echo chamber, Mikey, and that’s frowned upon.
You know Russ, if you don’t like it here, you can leave anytime. Or maybe I’ll decide you don’t like it here and do it for you. Talk sh*t about anything, but don’t expect to post here and insult something I’ve worked on for 12 years and I’ll take it.
Sorry Ben. Didn’t mean it quite that way, but you’re right.
I’ll go away for a while and give you guys a break.
…but I’ll be back!
But never dull, repetitive, priggish or a crashing bore.
just an a$$hole
Prigot.
Mikey is okay. The HBB would be less interesting if it was an echo chamber. Sometimes Mikey even has rare, lucid moments, invariably short-lived, where he says something that makes sense. Not in recent memory, but once in a blue moon.
Sure, if Inspector Javert is your cup of tea.
Tighten up your lug nuts Mighty.
It sounds like your bud palmetto is claiming that I’m too uptight with my devotion to facts and logic.
Your facts and logic are nothing in the face of strongly held beliefs.
“devotion to facts”
I have seen your devotion to your facts, you run from them when you are proven wrong.
To MightyMike’s circumscribed little mind, anyone who pokes holes in The Narrative is “arrogant, offensive, and wrong.” Scott Adams and Pepe the Frog will now be added to his daily Two Minutes of Hate sessions.
Nope, you’re wrong again, Ray. He’s arrogant offensive and wrong because he’s arrogant, offensive and wrong. This narrative thing that you blather on and on about is pretty vague. I asked for a definition of it last week and you couldn’t supply one.
I could supply a definition of The Narrative, but I choose not to. I don’t feel a need to spoon-feed people - the truth is out there if they want to look for it.
I thought that narrative was false.
I agree that Trump is arrogant, offensive, and wrong on a lot of things. But I like Scott Adams. “Dilbert” is a brilliant cartoon that skewers a lot of people and things that deserve skewering.
Usually you suffer from a bad case of logorrhea. Then you suddenly clam up on certain issues. There’s no meaning behind this narrative nonsense.
I see no reason to throw pearls to swine.
But I like Scott Adams. “Dilbert” is a brilliant cartoon that skewers a lot of people and things that deserve skewering.
I was referring to his Twitter garbage.
You will be poor.
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/09/13/you-will-be-poor/
2banana, the deplorable, question to liberals/democrats that I have never received a straight answer.
“A what point between 0% and 100% taxation do you become a slave?”
You are so going to the Gulag for that deplorable remark.
At the point where they take it by threat of force. The amount is irrelevant.
We’ve made it at over 40%
Was 8% 100 yrs age = progress !
“…do you become a slave?”
When you are obliged to go to work tomorrow to pay what is owed today.
I don’t care which side of the political spectrum you are on, that right there is pretty damn funny.
———
“Used to be you built cars in Flint and you couldn’t drink the water in Mexico”
– Donald Trump , September 14, 2016
Dang, best line of the campaign season yet!
Best. Election. Ever. In my lifetime, anyway. Beats the peewadden outta JEB vs. Hillary. Imagine what that would have been like. Would have really stunk out the joint.
I wrote about this before, one of our local TV stations did a piece on elections back in the day, like before even the Civil War. They could be just as brutal, in their own way. Partisans used to put out broadsides (def: a sheet of paper printed on one side only, forming one large page.”a broadside of Lee’s farewell address”) defaming the candidates. Even their wives, accusing them of having syphilis and stuff like that.
I don’t know if that is the line of the day or Colin Powell’s leaked email is.
“A 70-year person with a long track record, unbridled ambition, greedy, not transformational, with a husband still d—ing bimbos at home (according to the NYP),”
Colin Powell: Bill Clinton ‘still d—ing bimbos (according to the NYP)’
By Daniel Halper
September 14, 2016 | 2:06pm
Colin Powell wrote in a stunning email that he doesn’t want “to vote for her” — an apparent reference to Hillary Clinton — in part because her husband is “still d—ing bimbos at home,” according to the hacker website DCLeaks.
“I would rather not have to vote for her, although she is a friend I respect,” Powell told Democratic donor Jeffrey Leeds in the email leaked on the site.
“A 70-year person with a long track record, unbridled ambition, greedy, not transformational, with a husband still d—ing bimbos at home (according to the NYP),” Powell added.
The email appears to be a reference to Hillary Clinton — and her husband, former President Bill Clinton.
The July 26, 2014, email came just days after The Post, which Powell appears to cite, reported: “Bill Clinton reportedly has a buxom blond mistress who visits so often when Hillary Clinton isn’t home in Chappaqua that the former president’s Secret Service detail have given her an unofficial code name: Energizer.”
Chinese money launderers and embezzlers are now setting their sights on Toronto instead of Vancouver.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-14/vancouver-luxury-home-sales-plunge-65-chinese-buyers-move-toronto
So who is holding the bag?
The creepy oligarchs at the Bohemian Grove will vote against Trump. Google this bunch sometime - this is an even bigger badge of honor than being called deplorable by Crooked Hillary.
http://www.breitbart.com/jerusalem/2016/09/14/hacked-colin-powell-email-bohemian-grove-attendees/
richard nixon: bohemian grove “most faggy god dammed thing you could ever imagine”
New documents showing up on Twitter purporting to show Crooked Hillary’s pay-to-play rackets. Did the October Surprise come early?
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=231501
No, not yet. There’s more to come. In one of his interviews, Assange said some of the stuff was amusing, and I’m guessing this was the amusing part.
I don’t see anything amusing about selling Ambassadorships. America needs to be represented by effective, competent people with a strong knowledge of the countries where they will be assigned, who will be respected by local interlocuters.
I’m talking about the Colon Powell stuff. Some of that IS rather amusing. Especially the line about dicking bimbos.
But, of course, as you’ve noticed, that’s what seems to be enthralling everyone, not so much the sale of the ambassadorships. Which I’m guessing didn’t start with Obama or the Clintons. I’m pretty sure Joe Kennedy bought his.
Also not amusing: these are the geniuses that are going to be running the show after Crooked Hillary is elected? We are so screwed.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-14/what-democrats-did-immediately-after-realizing-they-were-hacked
Relax. I said this a long time ago, Hillary is never, ever going to be prez of the US. Ever.
I have no idea what’s going to happen, but this I know.
Hillary will be president for a few months, then hand the baton to Tim Kaine who is essentially just a whiter, more effeminate version of Obama himself.
Is hope n’ change coming to Kmart and Sears?
http://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-report-sears-and-kmart-2016-9
Why the rent in NYC is too damn high.
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/09/14/nyc-rent-stabilization-why-the-rent-is-too-damn-high/
Hi, been back from China for a few weeks. Old source of employment got bought out by the Koreans and they didn’t like contractors. So had to come back to the USA for work, found it in San Jose. So now it looks like I’m a Californian.
I kind of had to go cold turkey off the blog for a while, I read every post from about 2006 until about 2014 or so. We’ll see if I can just socially read now :-).
First question I’m a bit afraid to ask…anybody know what’s up with Allena? She hasn’t answered an email in a while. I googled but didn’t see anything bad.
Next question, the bits bucket has gone away and the daily posts are in the afternoon now?
Cats and dogs are lying down together, too.
Hey Carl. Glad to see you back! Allena has popped in a few times recently, last I saw was a week or two ago (I’m not reading daily so may have missed something).
I believe I’ll be down in the bay area in a week and a half. I’ll reach out — we should grab a drink!
OK good. Sounds like all is as well as it can be, then. Look forward to hearing from you.
Hope n’ change comes to teenagers in America’s blighted Democrat-maladministered urban cesspools.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/desperately-poor-teens-in-americas-impoverished-inner-cities-are-trading-sex-for-food
“Sheriff Joe” is a douche who abuses his authority and position while grandstanding for donations from the yahoos and subjecting inmates in his prison camps to petty humiliation like wearing pink boxers. Now Soros is going to elevate him to the status of folk hero by coming out against him.
http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-tough-phoenix-sheriff-may-have-new-foe-george-soros-2016-9
The people in Phoenix like him. If you don’t, just don’t vote for him.
The Sheriff’s job is to uphold the law, not undermine respect for it. I don’t mind a tough but just lawman - this guy just seems like an asshat.
The OLD people in Phoenix like him…
Well, this is a lively little evening here on the blog. OK, give: which of you mokes likes to have a little nighttime toddy and post on the HBB?
Have our resident Pineapples picked up their copies of Crooked Hillary’s “Stronger Together” yet? Or did Goldman Sachs just buy all 3,000 copies sold for $2500 each.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/14/hillary-clinton-stronger-together-book-flop/
Trump’s team claims Clinton has no child care policy. It’s been on her website for a year.
Donald Trump’s campaign has found possibly the most bizarre attack so far against Hillary Clinton: She doesn’t care as much about policy as he does.
It started Tuesday in Iowa, when Trump claimed Clinton is running “a policy-free campaign.”
Then Ivanka Trump picked it up: “There’s no policy on Hillary Clinton’s website pertaining to any of these issues, child care, eldercare, or maternity leave or paternity leave for that matter,” she said, in remarks first noted by ThinkProgress. “There’s no policy that’s been articulated on how to solve the problem.”
If you’re tempted to bet against Hillary Clinton having a policy about anything on her website, that’s probably a bad idea. It’s an especially bad idea when it relates to the issues she’s put at the center of not just her campaign but much of her public career. HillaryClinton.com is virtually buried in policy proposals for child care, family leave, and elder care (including a special section on Alzheimer’s disease).
Trump’s website, meanwhile, has almost no policy on it at all. Even now, it spotlights just eight issues — and that’s counting “immigration” and “pay for the wall” separately.
It’s the latest example of a bizarre tendency the Trump campaign has to parrot whatever attacks Clinton makes on Trump — regardless of whether they make any sense in context.
http://www.vox.com/2016/9/14/12914688/clinton-child-care-ivanka-trump
All well and good, bit is she going to survive the winter?
Overheating is her problem. Winter will be much better for her.
Maybe she could be fitted with a heat sink.
So I took a look at her site
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/
I don’t see a folder for “child care”.
To get to the main site I had to first respond to a popup that is only a personal insult to Trump (vote I agree). I imagine a psychologist might have something interesting to say about that.
WikiLeaks’ Guccifer 2.0: Obama Sold Off Public Offices to Donors
Corruption doesn’t start or end with Hillary
Michael Sainato | Observer.com - September 14, 2016
On September 13, WikiLeaks lived up to its promise of releasing more Democratic National Committee (DNC) documents. This time they were from hacker Guccifer 2.0, serving as a teaser for larger and likely more embarrassing leaks from the DNC and Hillary Clinton campaign.
Both the Democratic Party and Clinton campaign have attempted to insulate themselves from the content of the releases by alleging the hacks were organized by the Russian government. The claims are a mix of paranoia and PR/damage control, and will have enduring consequences. It may lead to what former Secretary of Defense William Perry referred to as a drift back into Cold War mentalities.
The leaks include more evidence of overt corruption within the DNC. One email dated May 18, 2016, from Jacquelyn Lopez, an attorney with the law firm Perkins Coie, asked DNC staff if they could set up a brief call “to go over our process for handling donations from donors who have given us pay to play letters.”
Included in the leak was a list of high-profile donors from 2008 and the ambassadorship they received in exchange for their large donation to the DNC and Barack Obama’s Organizing For Action (OFA). Essentially, Obama was auctioning off foreign ambassador positions and other office positions while Hillary Clinton served as secretary of state. The largest donor listed at contributions totaling over $3.5 million, Matthew Barzun, served as U.S. Ambassador to Sweden from 2009 to 2011, served as President Obama’s National Finance Chair during his 2012 reelection campaign, and now serves as U.S. Ambassador to the United Kingdom.
The Democratic Party’s business model is corruption, patronage, graft, and influence peddling. Same as it ever was.
This is my favorite line from the Powell hack: “the gig I lost.” In the same email when he remarks that she screws up with hubris, he goes on to talk about how he “lost a gig” at some University because Hillary overcharged the U when she went, and the U got a lot of heat, and apparently passed over Powell. “I should send her a bill.”
Would’ve been nice to see Powell express some remorse for his role in touting BS intel to sell the neocons’ invasion of Iraq.
“the gig I lost.”
That is priceless. “B-b-b-but, muh speeches! Muh SPEECHES! How dare anyone deprive me of a speaking fee!”
Ha-ha, they’re like a bunch of resentful little kids squabbling over the sand box. Think about that. That’s what governs the country. That’s what sends citizens off to the sand box of the Middle East all in one piece and ships ‘em back in coffins or with pieces missing, and then they crap all over the sand box. If this was Amazon, they’d be out of business and Bezos behind bars.
Hi Ben,
I know this site focuses largely on residential, but I thought you might appreciate this article as it highlights a lot of the same themes you have:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/09/us-commercial-real-estate-markets-are-sinking-again.html#comment-2669371
‘A year ago, I wrote an article on knowing when to sell. That was a time of widespread optimism and euphoria. As a result, there was very little serious discussion of investment risks in real estate. This complacency led usually prudent investors to dismiss any serious consideration of selling overvalued investments while markets are still strong.’
‘A clear sign that savvy investors sense that real estate has peaked appeared six months ago. Sam Zell is chairman of Equity Group Investments and founder of the largest apartment REIT – Equity Residential (EQR). He declared last December, “With pricing currently available in the commercial real estate market, it is very hard not to be a seller.”
‘Following his own advice, Zell sold roughly 23,000 apartments – one-fifth of his entire Equity Residential portfolio – a month later. Zell also knows about tops in office markets. He sold his office property REIT – Equity Office – for $39 billion in 2007 right before the market tanked.’
“It is 2016 and 2017 when the bulk of CMBS loans will be coming due — $267 billion. The vast majority of them are 10-year balloon mortgages originated during the wildest bubble years of 2006-2007.
To say that underwriting standards disappeared during these two years is an understatement. Here is what occurred.”
Reminds me of the Credit Suisse ARM reset chart. Humpty Dumptey kept that 2011 disaster from roosting. Do they care about CRE? I doubt it.
China creates new credit out of thin air, much like the Fed. Get ready for a new wave of Chinese embezzlers and money launderers snapping up Canadian real estate with make-believe fiat currency.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-15/china-floods-economy-over-rmb-1-trillion-new-august-credit
Some people in America actually believe Chinese do it bad but Fed does it good. Freaking idiots! Lots of them.
When did billionaires buying US elections become illegal? That’s the Democrat’s entire business model!
http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2016/09/mexican-billionaire-convicted-in_14.html
We must accelerate our importation of Democrat-on-Arrival gang members. The DNC’s permanent Democrat supermajority isn’t going to build itself, you know.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/09/15/unaccompanied-minors-swelling-ranks-american-gangs-say-experts.html
Our rigged, broken, manipulated “markets” are going haywire.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/14/bond-yields-are-surging-despite-deflation-and-that-is-dangerous/
Housing, my friend, housing.
They say that like it’s a bad thing! House prices are “artificially” too high! Lower prices, higher volume! More money to spend on “stuff” than shoving it all into high mortgages/rents!
Stupid fed!