Mired In A Recession That Never Ended
The Tech Times reports on Florida. “While luxury condos may not be a novelty, a Miami-based developer is poised to take things up a few notches — by offering a luxury condominium that is only meant for cars. Even though the luxury building in question in downtown Miami will have a social club exclusive to members, a concierge service, 24/7 security and climate-controlled units, it will not have residential accommodation. AutoHouse is a luxury condo that will only be a housing space for cars. AutoHouse, the brainchild of developers Louis Birdman and Jay Massirman, is basically a seven-story car storage that has 45 units. It also has a Collectors Club and the project is based in Miami’s Overtown neighborhood.”
“Each unit is climate-controlled and the space you get for $350,000 is sufficient for accommodating two cars, whereas the biggest unit is 2,200 square feet and sells for $1.5 million. The project may sound quite ambitious and even though the sales kicked off in August, so far no contracts have been signed. However, Birdman disclosed that several interested buyers have already reserved units and put down money for the same. AutoHouse will also cash in on the snob value surrounding luxury vehicles as collectors will have a designated place where they can show off their cars.”
Mortgage Professional America. “Michael Phelps has sold his Baltimore townhouse for $960,000. The Olympic gold medal-winner is not used to losing but on this occasion he fell short of the $1.03 million he paid for the home in 2012.”
The Washington Post. “For five summers, a tarp has covered the swimming pool at Grand Bel II, a condominium community in Silver Spring that has no money for lifeguards, chemicals or insurance. The Vistas at Washingtonian Woods in Gaithersburg faces $600,000 in repairs but has just $400,000 in cash reserves. At Saxony Square in Alexandria, an unemployed man nine months behind on his mortgage negotiates with lenders to keep his two-bedroom condo. His neighbors struggle to pay their monthly fees; since 2010, Saxony’s board of directors has filed more than 80 court actions to try to collect such assessments.”
“Even as posh condos rise in trendy neighborhoods around the nation’s capital, many older complexes are mired in a recession that never ended. Grand Bel II, a 1960s-era complex, ‘is not the Ritz,’ as former property manager Eric Cooper put it. But it has been a sturdy launchpad for immigrants and young families. Bulgarian-born Aneta Lefterov purchased her two-bedroom in 2010 for $106,000, a bargain price, flattened by the housing bust. She took advantage of a Federal Housing Administration-insured loan, allowing her to make a low down payment, and was able to stretch her salary as a workforce consultant for the state of Maryland to cover her mortgage payment and the $490 monthly fee.”
“The problem is the condo economic model, in which your neighbors are also your business partners, obligated to pay their share of common expenses. Even before Lefterov moved in, there were signs of distress. As the economy deteriorated, more Grand Bel II owners had trouble paying their bills. To forestall mortgage default, many opted to stop paying monthly assessments. The board took out a $1 million bank loan to address a serious drainage problem, which depleted cash reserves. Monthly fees ticked upward: $550, then $592, then $655. The board levied a special one-time assessment of between $800 and $1,200 for each unit.”
“‘We’re going to get to the point where we won’t be able to pay,’ Lefterov said.”
“Housing advocates and condo board members say lenders also hurt condo complexes by failing to quickly process foreclosures and offer units for resale. Such ‘zombie foreclosures’ are especially prevalent in cases where the value of the property is less than the balance on the loan, critics say. ‘Some of these units have dropped more than 50 percent in value, so [banks] sit on them and hope that the markets come back,’ said Jackie Simon, a Montgomery County real estate agent and housing activist.”
The Press of Atlantic City in New Jersey. “A new national survey says affordability is a growing concern across the country for people considering buying homes, but that’s not such a major problem these days in Rose Kelly’s corner of the market. In a recent ad, the highest price for a home in her ad was $110,000 for a ‘lakefront townhouse’ in Galloway. The lowest price was $54,000 for a one-bedroom place in Egg Harbor Township ‘in need of rehab.’ ‘There are so many homes in South Jersey at an affordable price, but they need updating or they’re sold as-is,’ said Kelly, whose territory runs from Egg Harbor City and Mays Landing into Atlantic City. ‘You can get a lot of house for the money.’”
“Buyers and sellers around much of South Jersey know very well that there’s no shortage of options available on the local market. ‘A lot of homes are upside-down right now,’ Kelly said, meaning the owners owe more on them than the houses are worth. ‘A lot of people haven’t been able to pay their mortgages because of casinos closing. The availability is definitely here. It is a buyer’s market.’”
“In Atlantic County, the number of single-family home sales climbed almost 23 percent from January through July over those same months in 2015, but the median price dropped more than 13 percent. Kelly said agents have a lot of tools they can use to help people buy their first homes, starting with simple math. ‘You can actually own a home for less than you pay in rent,’ she tells customers, who probably don’t know all the programs available to encourage first-time buyers. ‘A young couple just starting out, they can’t afford a $200,000 house, but they can come to the (settlement) table with no money down and no closing costs, which is very appealing to people,’ Kelly said.”
‘a luxury condominium that is only meant for cars’
Wow, that’s a blast from the past. The earlier one, also in Miami, never got built. I don’t think they ever started that art storage condo either.
artsy went fartsy
more floating condos hotels needed
STAT !
Artsy went fartsy, all right:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-19/that-100-000-painting-bought-to-flip-yours-for-about-20-000
POOF!
‘Art dealer and collector Niels Kantor paid $100,000 two years ago for an abstract canvas by Hugh Scott-Douglas with the idea of quickly reselling it for a tidy profit. Instead, he is returning the 28-year-old artist’s work to the market this week at an 80 percent discount.’
‘Such is the new art season. At auction houses in London and New York, sellers are preparing to bail on their investments after the emerging-art bubble burst and the resale market for once sought-after artists dried up.’
“I’d rather take a loss,” said Kantor, who is offering the Scott-Douglas work at the Phillips auction in New York on Sept. 20. “I feel like it can go to zero. It’s like a stock that crashed.”
Only the little people work. Everyone else flips stuff … until they can’t. I wonder how many of them will be discovering the joy of work.
But the problem is, there aren’t enough jobs. They have already perfected a fully-automated McDonald’s - you place your own order on a touchscreen, and the machine makes it for you. Probably one or two people in the back restocking things. That’s our future.
Every company is automating stuff, and I get that. Do they realize that if the humans aren’t working, they won’t have money to pay for the very stuff they are automating? Who’s gonna buy their stuff like food, groceries, insurance what have you?
But the problem is, there aren’t enough jobs.
I guess these reformed flippers will have to apply themselves and learn some skills.
But yeah, things are going to get very interesting for the under 100 IQ crowd. In a way it already has, as millions are already unemployable, and it’s only going to get worse.
All the needs to happen is for the elite to place all these people in a pen. Maybe a deserted mall?
Since it’s those with money that will have to pay for those without any, it follows that the feedings need to occur in a low-cost, hyper efficient way.
Dump the food in some feeding troughs in the barbed wire parking lot and let them have at it.
Might have to locate them outside the wealthy liberal cities on the coasts, though, as unappetizing as that may seem.
In any event, gotta give ‘em just enough rope for they can vote for more every four years.
They have already perfected a fully-automated McDonald’s - you place your own order on a touchscreen, and the machine makes it for you.
I’m sure a McApp with a customer pre-configured “meal profiles” is just around the corner; think “one-touch” to enter your order and pay for it. The machine won’t forget, “no cheese.”
“I guess these reformed flippers will have to apply themselves and learn some skills.”
And the gov can’t give ‘em away; cooperate and graduate.
And this one is planned for Overtown, no less. At one time, and possibly still, the toughest neighborhood in Miami. Also the site of a violent race riot in 1980.
The speculator class, though, thinks it has found the next big thing:
http://therealdeal.com/miami/2015/11/23/neighborhood-dive-pricing-surges-in-overtown/
“A buying binge led by Miami Beach-based developer Michael Simkins is generating seven-figure deals along a four block stretch of Overtown, Miami’s historically African-American neighborhood.
“Prices have increased dramatically,” Simkins told The Real Deal of the area, which is one of the city’s poorest communities. “When we started purchasing land, it was in the $20 a square foot range. It is now approaching $150 a square foot.”
…
Today, the annual median household income for Overtown residents is $17,450, according to recent U.S. Census data.
Nevertheless, investors like Simkins have recently paid top dollar for Overtown properties. In mid-October, he closed an all-cash $2 million deal there for two apartment buildings with a combined 28 units and three commercial units. Simkins paid $116 per square foot for the 16,300-square-foot assemblage.”
“And this one is planned for Overtown, no less. At one time, and possibly still, the toughest neighborhood in Miami. Also the site of a violent race riot in 1980.”
But, but, they have some really nice murals on the walls of the buildings there!
As quoted in the article, the purchaser of the apartment buildings announced that current residents “hopefully” would continue living there. There’s no chance they’ll be able to afford it and surely they know that.
Next thing you know, Belle Glade will gentrify. The living quarters for sugar cane cutters will be turned into a hip live/work/play space for the upscale millennials we’ve all heard so much about.
‘Each week, “Just Reduced” spotlights properties in Arlington County (VA) whose price have been cut over the previous week.’
‘As of September 13, there are 230 detached homes, 62 townhouses and 312 apartments for sale throughout Arlington County. In total, 34 homes experienced a price reduction in the past week.’
‘Here is this week’s selection of Just Reduced properties:
3523 Valley Street, 22207 – NOW: $2,895,000 (Reduced $103,000 on 9/9)
3111 Monroe Street North, 22207 – NOW: $2,199,000 (Reduced $51,000 on 9/12)
3210 1st Road North, 22201 – NOW: $1,675,000 (Reduced $70,000 on 9/12)
711 Irving Street, 22201 – NOW: $1,599,000 (Reduced $40,000 on 9/9)
5410 Little Falls Road North, 22207 – NOW: $899,000 (Reduced $26,000 on 9/11)
4104 21st Road North, 22207 – NOW: $719,900 (Reduced $20,000 on 9/7)
2030 Adams Street North #404, 22201 – NOW: $239,000 (Reduced $10,000 on 9/13)’
I’m in the next county and inventory is at 1/3 of par
20 for sale in 22151 vs 60 usually for sale
5% = bfd
Just sayin’.
Down is down…and this is merely the beginning.
It is really difficult to gauge this housing market. I went to a home builder’s open house this weekend in the Sacramento foothills and it was very busy. Interestingly, it appeared the houses were a bit smaller, mostly one story and about 10-15% less expensive than the similar product they sold out of next door.
Now this from Wells Fargo:
Confidence among U.S. homebuilders has surged to the highest level in nearly a year, reflecting a brighter outlook for sales now and into 2017.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index released Monday climbed six points this month to 65 following a downward revised reading of 59 in August.
Readings above 50 indicate more builders view sales conditions as good rather than poor. The index has been mostly at 58 since rising to 61 in January. The last time it reached 65 was October last year.
Builders’ view of current sales and a gauge of traffic by prospective buyers rose. Their outlook for sales over the next six months also increased.
Sales of new U.S. homes accelerated in July to the fastest pace in nearly nine years.
Confidence among U.S. homebuilders has surged to the highest level
Monday climbed six points this month to 65 following a downward revised reading of 59 in August.
It is difficult to get a someone to tell the truth when their salary is dependent upon lying about it.
Their salary depends on them believing the lie.
Their salary depends on their ability clearly understand the market and respond correctly.
Additionally, sales of new homes are increasing and selling at a pace faster than any time since 2007….not that 2007 was anything to write home about!
But…but…stress tests said the Eurozone banking sector was on the mend!
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/09/17/italian-banking-crisis-nonperforming-loans-mission-impossible/
I wonder if the FED has some of the EU’s crappy mbs etc?
why not ,they’re all good pals
Just say no to oligarch-globalist Quislings.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3794953/Merkel-faces-setback-Berlin-vote-migrant-fears.html
She doesn’t regret welcoming the rapefugees, she only regrets that she didn’t “manage” their arrival better.
Some people just cannot learn from their mistakes.
OT
I’m collecting stories about free Health Care countries and their failures.
ex:
UK publishes article saying -prostate cancer- why treat it
a. because it metastasizes
Canadah- send it your poop for $400 vs colonoscopy $4000
problem the poop test shows your fcked, whoops too late
more?
In contrast to our totally awesome (and might I mention flawless?) system, where a look-see at a sprained ankle costs $2500, four hours in the ER costs $10K (without actually doing anything other than taking a CAT scan), nobody dies because they can’t afford the prices, drugs or the insurance, or are treated but are bankrupted by the process.
Them effed up Canadians/Brits/Germans/French/Danes/Swedes/Japanese/etc… They would rather have an affordable government-managed system than our “free-enterprise”-type system. Stoopid B##stards.
Them effed up Canadians/Brits/Germans/French/Danes/Swedes/Japanese/etc… They would rather have an affordable government-managed system than our “free-enterprise”-type system. Stoopid B##stards.
My “stoopid B##stards” cousins in Sweden and Finland use private health care because the public package sucks. What’s your explanation for that? Did you even know this was a thing?
Its clear you’ve never traveled to any of those utopias you cite, or at least have never talked with people in those countries to get their opinions of their health care systems. Had you done so, you might STFU.
But probably not. Always pointing to some utopia you have no idea about. Know your kind all too well.
I think that Colorado said that he’s visited relatives in the UK who said that they were pleased with the NHS. I worked at one of the top hospitals in the country many years ago. One of the doctors in my department was from Quebec and said that he felt good that the Canadian system was there for his family.
“AutoHouse will also cash in on the snob value surrounding luxury vehicles as collectors will have a designated place where they can show off their cars.”
This may be the most amazing waste of housing related money I have ever seen.
“collectors will have a designated place where they can show off their cars.”
In Overtown. Anyone who has lived in South Florida, especially the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area, knows that no one goes to Overtown to show off anything.
LOL. See my post above.
Seems like Florida is the last place you would want to store a car, what with humidity and salt. Maybe such a condo would do better in Arizona or Nevada.
Interestingly enough, the one thing a used car buyer in Florida dreads is purchasing a vehicle that has been driven up North. The undercarriage tends to rot a lot faster from driving winter roads (what with the ice and salt) than it does here in Florida.
We get a lot of used cars here in Florida that have been traded in by transplants from up North. You learn the hard way not to buy one unless you’ve put it up on the lift and checked out the underside.
Like a lot of things around this mania, the purpose isn’t to store cars. It’s to sell air boxes to speculators.
The undercarriage tends to rot a lot faster from driving winter roads (what with the ice and salt) than it does here in Florida.
We don’t seem to have that problem here in the Centennial state. From what I have heard MagChlor is used sparingly out here.
Survey: Zika fear has scratched trips to Disney
http://therealdeal.com/miami/
I suspect job security fear in our Obama-Fed-Goldman Sachs “recovery” is the bigger fear.
“Tourism promotion agency Visit Orlando reported no reduction in advance bookings of Orlando hotel rooms due to potential Zika exposure.”
Did anyone expect a statement from a “tourism promotion agency” that people are cancelling right and left because of Zika? Of course not. They only do that down the road when they need cover for lousy numbers.
Orlando sucks. Disney sucks. The area where Disney is located is basically a fetid swamp. So what does Disney do? Create an inviting “beach” on the shores of a gator infested lagoon. Some little kid goes down to the shoreline and splashes in the water. That’s what kids do. And what happens? He gets dragged under and killed by a gator. That’s what gators do.
It’s a perfect metaphor for Disney. All fake charm on the surface, filth and viciousness underneath.
Walt Disney would be appalled by what his creation and vision have become once greedy corporate types took control.
Well, at least Disney is working hard to reduce potential Zika exposure to its American workers….
….mainly by firing them once they have trained their Argentine replacements!
Good old Disney. You peach of a company, you. Can’t wait to spend my time and hundreds of dollars supporting your politically correct ambitions.
All fake charm on the surface
Not even that.
CASHLESS BITCHEZ!
The Fed’s asset bubbles are starting to implode.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-19/that-100-000-painting-bought-to-flip-yours-for-about-20-000
Just wait until interest rates revert to historic norms. You ain’t seen nothin’ yet…
Hope n’ change comes to McDonalds.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/18/mcdonalds-hires-foreign-h-1bs-fires-70-american-accounting-staff/
China looking more shaky.
http://www.businessinsider.com/credit-to-gdp-warning-sign-of-bank-crisis-china-2016-9
Our globalist overlords and their media lapdogs must step up their efforts to convince the sheeple that uncontrolled immigration and the importation of Third World wage slaves is beneficial for “the economy,” meaning the oligarchs who want to drive wages lower to increase their corporate profits at the expense of society. Forward!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/19/immigrants-are-good-for-the-economy-and-governments-need-to-expl/
You can tell the Establishment adjuncts of the banksters and globalists are getting scared when, after their blantant disregard of popular alarm over uncontrolled immigration and multiculturalism run amok, they try to halt the rise of nationalist parties and candidates by playing the “Nazi” card.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3794953/Merkel-faces-setback-Berlin-vote-migrant-fears.html
If DB is going to be the next Lehman, the media would surely warn us.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-19/deutsche-bank-extends-losses-near-record-lows-significantly-undercapitalzied-even-wi
I saw a cartoon with side by side drawings.
Under the caption “then”
It had a hippie holding his hand up giving a peace sign and wearing a shirt with a peace sign that read…
QUESTION AUTHORITY
Under the caption “now”
The same hippie only much older is holding up a subpoena wearing a shirt with an Obama logo that read…
QUESTION ANYONE QUESTIONING AUTHORITY
The Boomers, the most feckless and worthless generation to ever blight the face of the planet, have easily made the switch from “anti-Establishment” to being the most zealous proponents of the crony-capitalist status quo.
Yes, every single boomer.
Collectivism is retarded.
Not every single one.
I’m a boomer and also about the most anti-establishment person you’re likely to ever meet.
“Not every single one.”
I know. I was being very sarc.
RKH is the collectivist. See my post above yours about what collectivists are…
Not every muslim is a terrorist, not every boomer is a former hippie who now zealously promotes the establishment…we’re not allowed to notice general trends anymore because there are always exceptions.
There are no facts to base any belief that there is a trend.
Amazing how money can make cherished principles fly out the window.
“Amazing how money can make cherished principles fly out the window.”
Elizabeth Warren?
‘the median price dropped more than 13 percent. Kelly said agents have a lot of tools they can use to help people buy their first homes, starting with simple math. ‘You can actually own a home for less than you pay in rent,’ she tells customers, who probably don’t know all the programs available to encourage first-time buyers. ‘A young couple just starting out, they can’t afford a $200,000 house, but they can come to the (settlement) table with no money down and no closing costs’
Rose here is offering first time buyers the chance to jump in front of this avalanche with zero down. BTW, the USDA loan she’s talking about is by definition subprime.
Kelly is counting on the sub-par math skills of graduates from our NEA indoctrination mills.
Even worse is her malice… willing to set-up young families for certain financial ruin.
Testify….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-19/trump-slams-profiling-political-correctness-were-allowing-these-people-destroy-our-c
If you decline to vote for a serial fabricator and influence peddler who is too old and ailing for the demands of running the country, you are a sexist and de facto member of the Basket of Deplorables.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/19/obama-blames-american-sexism-hillary-clintons-low-poll-numbers/
She’s younger than Trump, you know. And everything that comes out of his mouth is a fabrication.
“decline to vote for a serial fabricator and influence peddler”
I decline to vote for either of them. They each are serial fabricators and influence peddlers. One is an authoritarian. Both are statists. Both are tyrants.
Nationalism vs. globalism…the 99% vs. a corrupt and venal .1% in the financial sector. Pick a side.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/japans-prime-minister-in-waiting-trades-nationalism-for-globalism/2016/09/18/2c17abc2-7c3a-11e6-ac8e-cf8e0dd91dc7_story.html?utm_term=.ab6a618d742e
Whatever happened to starter homes?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-happened-to-the-starter-home-2016-09-19
‘A survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) found that 59 percent of respondents said they could and would spend no more than $249,000 on a new home, but only 35 percent of new homes started in 2015 were at or below that limit. The online real estate service Trulia recently reported that the number of starter and trade-up homes available […] has plunged by more than 40 percent since 2012.’
‘Yes, […] multifamily construction volume nearly doubled in 2012 compared with that seen in 2010, and increased another one-third from 2012 to 2014, according to a new study by the Research Institute for Housing America.’
‘But most new apartments and single-family homes are aimed at the top of the market. […]. The average price of new homes for sale in 2015 was $351,000—a 40 percent increase from 2009.’
‘Land owners aren’t selling, at least not when it comes to their best lots. One would think that rising home prices would make this a land seller market. However, that isn’t currently the case as Bloomberg detailed recently. When asked for investment advice, Mark Twain once said: “Buy land, they’re not making it anymore.” Right now, owners of well-located land are heeding a variation of that advice in expectation (or, perhaps hope) of higher prices: don’t sell your land because you can only sell it once and it’s likely to be more valuable in the future. There is substantial gap between what builders are willing to pay and what landowners are willing to sell for, particularly in the best markets. Landowners will sell today but only if builders are willing to pay them for possible future inflation that may or may not happen. To complicate matters further, a lot of landowners bought during the brief run-up in 2013 thinking that the market was about to take off. It didn’t and now they are holding out in hope of higher prices down the road.’
‘At some point, the laws of economics dictate that this has to change. We aren’t going to stop creating households and people can’t continue to pay an ever-larger percentage of their incomes towards housing costs without resulting in adverse economic consequences.’
Wow, some great advice there from the builders: either move to flyover (and work *what* job, again?) or raise your young kids in a condo (which are more profitable for the builder).
And this guy obviously didn’t read Ben’s WaPo link about condo HOA fees. Sure, you can buy a $106K condo, but for HOA fees upwards of $600+??!? That bumps your monthly nut up to ~1300/month. That’s the PITI for a house that cost 3x as much.
‘a 1960s-era complex…Lefterov purchased her two-bedroom in 2010 for $106,000, a bargain price’
And what did this air box cost 50 years ago, $10k, less? Call me skeptical, but I would say this woman got took at 106k. Hey, she got a low down government loan that shoe-horned her income in the box. Take solace Aneta, as you pack your things, it was cheaper than renting.
‘Indecisive home buyers in the Orlando area were left behind last month as houses sold faster than in a decade, a new report shows. Orlando-area houses that sold during August landed a contract within an average 56 days of hitting the market — the shortest sales period since May 2006 when the real estate bubble was about to burst.’
‘But those overall market stats don’t reveal the challenges facing entry-level buyers, said John Lazenby, agent for Colony Realty Group Inc.’
“There were 21 percent fewer single-family homes listed below $300,000 available for purchase than this month last year,” said Lazenby, president of the association. “The lack of available options is pushing buyers to take advantage of the current low interest rates and choose more expensive properties they might not otherwise be able to afford with higher rates.”
After the Pulse nightclub shooting, this is what the assistant state attorney, Ken Lewis, had to say about Orlando:
“Downtown Orlando has no bottom. The entire city should be leveled. It is void of a single redeeming quality. It is a melting pot of 3rd world miscreants and ghetto thugs. It is void of culture. If you live down there you do it at your own risk and at your own peril. If you go down there after dark there is seriously something wrong with you. Disney does everything in its power to shield visitors of Disney from its northern blight. That doesn’t change reality. Disney may be the happiest place on earth but Orlando is a national embarrassment.”
http://www.wesh.com/news/assistant-state-attorney-suspended-over-facebook-comments-on-pulse-shooting/40109216
After living in the area for six weeks, I can’t say I disagree. It is really a hole.
He should be working with the police to get the thugs off the street and in jail. It sounds like he was blaming others for his own failure.
A lot of Orlando lacks a discernible culture, but that’s what happens when a metro area grows from 100,000 in 1960 to over 1.4 million fifty years later. Everything seems garishly new and an assault upon the landscape.
The city does have more than its fair share of Honda Civics painted orange and turned into roadsters. I’ve heard that those big mufflers are called “fart cans.”
A lot of Orlando lacks a discernible culture, but that’s what happens when a metro area grows from 100,000 in 1960 to over 1.4 million fifty years later. Everything seems garishly new and an assault upon the landscape.
This has got to be the story of many metro areas in the south and west, such as Atlanta, Houston, Las Vegas, and San Jose.
Ben, 50 years ago that airbox was probably an apartment. Probably condo-converted during the bubble. And in DC you’re largely buying location. Silver Spring is closer to downtown DC, many many buses, and on the subway line. That could jump up the price faster than normal inflation.
raise your young kids in a condo
It may be unbelievable to people who’ve lived their entire lives in SFH suburbia, but it’s not a great tragedy for kids to grow up in condos or apartments. Most of them turn out to be just fine.
That’s not the point, Mike. The point is that the standard of living has been going down for decades. You used to be able to afford a small SFH on one income. Now we need two incomes to afford a condo, and you’re glossing over it. Pretty soon people will be living in tenements and your answer will be “Oh it’s not all that bad. At least they aren’t living in a box.”
You wrote “either move to flyover (and work *what* job, again?) or raise your young kids in a condo…”
You didn’t write move to flyover or move into a condo. I though that you were making the point, which many SFH suburbanites would agree with, that raising kids in a condo is close to child abuse.
An interesting difference between this bubble and the previous one in my little burg: last time the builder boys built lots of 1500-2000 sq foot, single story houses, this time they are only building 3000 sq ft houses.
When I asked one of them why this was, they said that lots in our town are more expensive now, and that only more expensive houses pencil out.
Another difference: last time at the peak of the bubble they were building 1000+ houses a year. This time they only build 300. I do hear anecdotes that when someone here puts their entry level house on the market there is a bidding war. Still, prices here are still about 100K LESS than Denver.
‘they said that lots in our town are more expensive now, and that only more expensive houses pencil out’
Rental Watch is going to have a cow.
There needs to be differentiation between “lots” and “land”.
Even if land is $0, if the impact fees, and cost of infrastructure are too high, than the land can be expensive–even without landowners pricing their LAND at unrealistically high levels.
That cost (impact fees plus infrastructure costs) is the floor on finished lot prices, but usually you need to tack on something for the land as ag land.
Not all high lot prices are due to landowners jacking up land prices and hoping for a sucker to come along.
Everything near me is 3000+ square feet now. And the materials are not high quality — I’ve seen a McMansion under construction that is being built entirely with two-by-fours and sheets of oriented strand board. I’ve never seen anything like it, usually the first floor is concrete block.
I’d be ashamed to build something like that.
Some of the posters here have indicated one reason they want the housing market to collapse is so they can buy up a bunch of new houses for cheap. I guess that’s not a horrible idea, but what are you gonna be buying? A bunch of crappy construction riddled with builder errors and beer cans stuffed in the walls.
Carpet bagging is not the only reason to want the housing bubble to be gone. The credit expansion and general malinvestment that came with it made all of our essentials ridiculously overpriced. The longer this goes on the more severely our systems will be fractured.
I wonder if the same people on HBB and elsewhere who are waiting for a housing collapse (so they can buy more houses) will be paying cash for their new shacks. Or going right back into it with mortgage debt.
It’s like: “Yay we want the credit bubble to collapse so we can buy lots of cheap houses… using credit…” wtf…
‘waiting for a housing collapse’
The alternative is to die.
’so they can buy more houses’
I don’t think I’ll be involved in buying houses again. Having managed multi-family and SFR, multi-family is a far better product.
‘going right back into it with mortgage debt’
Not everybody has that much cash. Now would I prefer it if the mortgage market was private? Yes, but that’s out of my control and yours. Do I think government involvement in the mortgage market is the primary reason house prices are too high, yes.
‘we want the credit bubble to collapse’
It doesn’t matter what I want or don’t want. I follow the housing bubble. I’d like to blog about it to a reasonable conclusion. I practically stopped years ago when I was spending so much time on foreclosures. One day somebody asked me, ‘what’s going on in the housing market’ and I realized I didn’t have any idea. So I also do this to stay on top of things with a limited budget.
This HBB you talk about doesn’t exist the way you think it does. There are no meetings, no criteria for reading here. There’s no subscription fee or membership required. You may believe there is some consensus on this or that, but you are reading that into it. It’s just a place for me to chronicle this economic phenomenon and for anyone who is interested to comment from time to time.
I guess that’s not a horrible idea, but what are you gonna be buying? A bunch of crappy construction riddled with builder errors and beer cans stuffed in the walls.
That can still be a good investment if the price is low enough.
That’s cool, thanks.
China’s central planners are encouraging rather than reining in speculative bubbles. This is going to come back to haunt the CCP once their Ponzi markets and asset bubbles meet true price discovery.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-19/chinese-home-prices-jump-most-record-numbers-are-hard-believe
Who will be the next domino to fall in the freight shipping industry?
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/09/18/hanjins-zombie-collapse-wont-be-last-one-ccfi-scfi/
At the risk of sounding like some crazy person (beyond the usual level, that is), I think it’s a good idea to revisit emergency supply cache — for an extended emergency or supply-chain failure, but not like a full blown society / zombie collapse, in which case everyone can kiss their ass goodbye. So this is my list I am currently assembling:
For under $1000:
1 month food supply (28 day supply Mountain House)
1 month water supply
Solar LED camping lantern with USB charger for phone
Combo wood/coal/natgas-burning camping stove
Magnesium lighter tool
A few stainless steel cups, bowls and plates
First aid kit
and most importantly:
1 month supply toilet paper!
The only other thing I will be doing is taking a few thousand out of the digital checking account (in cash) and put into a safe-deposit box at the local bank branch. It is the next-best thing than having a personal safe at home. Just in case you wake up and the digital money is gone, at least there’s some hard cash available. Yes I know the banks could raid them, but at least it’s something.
Any suggestions?
Hide the cash at home, skip the safe deposit box. Bury it, tape it to the underside of a drawer in the kitchen, hide it in the bottom of a bag of flour etc.
I know you’re not it full blown SHTF mode, but maybe consider a high quality firearm (used to save $)
Thanks YG.
I’ve never owned a firearm before, but I live in a gun-friendly town these days. It’s been something I’ve been considering. I’m not sure I trust myself with one TBH (lol), but if I do decide to go forward with that, no doubt I’ll be spending as much time as I need with a good teacher (proper safety/handling), and practice at the range. Who knows, I may be a good marksman and I never knew.
Thanks again.
“Who knows, I may be a good marksman and I never knew.”
You never know until you try! LOL, a buddy of mine who, to all appearances, was a complete burnout, went on a river boating/fishing trip with us. Our “navigator” got us all lost in the swampy backwoods area, and had trouble with the engine, which was doing little more than putt-putting us around in circles. The breeze had died, flies started biting, it was just hot and nasty and tempers started flaring.
So the guy, who had been sucking on bottles of beer and staring into space most of the day, gets up and says. “Let me try”.
He kicks the engine up a few notches (navigator had said he couldn’t get it to juice) and steered the boat out of the swamps back to the river, with a determined look on his face like some old swamp fox. Turned out, while he was seemingly staring into space, he was memorizing the route. Guy next to me says, under his breath “A hidden talent”.
Oops, sorry I meant YD. Still early this morning.
If the SHTF I’m not sure fiats will have any worth.
Sounds like camping at home. You are not going to carry a month’s worth of water on your back.
An emergency wood stove is a fire ring or a steel coffee can.
If you plan on staying home in a supply chain break, make small adjustments to have pretty much what you are used to eating in your pantry. No big adjustment needed. Learn to do canning. This is not expensive to start and you will save money very quickly.
Cash in a bank safety deposit box? You might then be considered a terrorist. You might not have access at your convenience. Keep it under your control or it is not an emergency supply. Spread it around your home and make it impossible to find it all in 15 minutes. Just a thought.
If there is no electricity, forget about your cell phone working.
Why would you need SS cups if you are at home?
I am pretty much stocked for a month or two with essentials every year when I go cruising. It isn’t difficult if you practice and then eat what you have stocked in. I know how long my potable water tank will last if I do not use it for bathing (lake water for that). Try going a week without shopping for a start. Try going a day without using an electric appliance or turning the lights on.
Save yourself the $1,000.
Thanks Blue. Good advice.
I don’t get this “lights going out” paranoia just because there could be a lousy delay in shipping cheap consumer cr@p from Asia. So WalMart runs out of light bulbs or cheap shirts. It won’t be the end of the world. Mexico City had a monster earthquake in 1985, and the lights didn’t go out.
If you live anywhere in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (SFO up to Vancouver, BC, along the coast), having emergency supplies to last at least a few days, if not a week or more, is a really good idea.
When the big one (subduction zone earthquake) hits again (last date: 1700, and it caused a tsunami in Japan), it’s going to be lights-out for a long time, not to mention the rest of the infrastructure.
And having a few gallons of water under the desk at work, along with a bag of Costco trail mix and some canned chili and a can opener in the bottom drawer, isn’t a bad idea either.
It’s always a good idea to have some emergency supplies, especially non-perishable food and water, at hand; especially in case of a natural disaster. I just don’t see the connection between a partial supply chain disruption from Asia leading to the “lights going out” that some people on this blog are often so worried about.
The truly critical stuff (the stuff that keeps the lights on, etc.) can always be flown in. And I suspect that kind of high value stuff is already being flown in anyway. Those big boats are full of cheap, low value stuff; which is why its being sent by boat in the first place.
And having a few gallons of water under the desk at work, along with a bag of Costco trail mix and some canned chili and a can opener in the bottom drawer, isn’t a bad idea either.
Good point. I have the car and the house prepped, but no supplies at work. Total oversight
Any suggestions?
You could add a fallout bunker in the backyard and store a Dr. Kevorkian contraption in it for when the SHTF.
Dr. Kevorkian contraption? Still not making any sense there MM!
I know, reality has to be getting you down!
Google him if you’re not familiar with the name.
If you are a “super hardcore gun owner” you are, ipso facto, a member of Les Deplorables.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/19/us-gun-ownership-survey
I think the point is being missed. It isn’t any specific thing that makes you “deplorable”. It is simply not being a follower of the authority figure making these judgements. The making of such judgements outs the psychopath.
The point is the pathology of the speaker, not the deplorable state of the target.
If you are a “super hardcore gun owner” you are, ipso facto, a member of Les Deplorables.
I don’t think that that is part of the definition. Though there are probably polls out there that show a correlation.
‘Used machinery is flooding the secondhand market, piling more pain on equipment makers battling slack demand from any customer that mines, moves or refines commodities amid a global slump in the value of everything from coal to corn.’
‘Instead of buying a new $500,000 bulldozer or $300,000 excavator, many construction firms and other equipment users are renting or entering longer-term leases for machines to expand their fleets or replace worn out equipment, dealers and analysts say. Dealers, in turn, are keeping smaller inventories of new wheel loaders, backhoes and other machinery. That is hurting sales for Caterpillar Inc., Volvo AB, Deere & Co. and other manufacturers.’
“There’s a lot of machinery sitting around,” said Bill Yurkovic, used equipment manager for Cleveland Brothers Equipment Co., a Caterpillar dealer in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Demand there for dump trucks that cost more than $1 million and other large earth-moving machinery crashed along with prices for the coal and natural gas the region produces.’
“It’s as bad as it’s been in my 30 years,” Mr. Yurkovic said. “A lot of renting. Not a lot of buying.”
‘With so much equipment up for grabs, used-machinery prices are down 10% from a year ago, Caterpillar says. Its dealers also are under pressure to keep up with price discounts on competitors’ new equipment. Lower prices for new machines provide further downward pressure on used values.’
Since 2008, there has been a bloodbath in the lower half of the business jet market (the companies that bought these aircraft, usually small/midsize business and manufacturers are getting rid of them, or going out of business, or both). The upper half was doing okay, until last year.
Now, these airplanes are starting to see depreciation similar to the bottom end aircraft. Seems that there are only so many buyers who can/will spend $60 million on a jet.
“……speculators, whose real intent was to resell them for premiums as much as $10 million.”
“Prices….rose as high as the mid-$70s (million) in early 2015. Now, speculators are struggling to sell the aircraft, having lost 50% of their value in the last five years.”
http://tinyurl.com/jguzwug
Investing(?) a couple of million bucks in an older aircraft for upgrades made sense when a new replacement cost $50 million. Drop the price of a nearly new airplane to $25 million, and the decision gets tougher. It definitely doesn’t help the resale value of the older airplane.
Some interesting tech news this morning. Apparently Clinton’s “Bleach Bit” guy, Paul Combetta, asked for advice on Reddit on how to “remove or replace to/from address on archived emails”
https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/53gv8k/tfw_you_realize_your_it_guy_went_to_reddit_for/
https://www.reddit.com/r/exchangeserver/comments/2bmm4l/remove_or_replace_tofrom_address_on_archived/
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/19/discovery-2014-reddit-archive-platte-river-networks-paul-combetta-oh-shit-guy-requesting-tech-help-to-strip-vips-emails/
So, some autistic deplorable in the bowels of the internet was able to find what the FBI said it couldn’t.
Hillary lies to Jake Tapper about scrubbed email server … - YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUaixHtHA_w - 181k - Cached - Similar pages
Aug 19, 2015 .
“a pressure cooker, with dark-colored wiring sticking out, connected by silver duct tape”
Sounds like a clock
“Cool clock, Ahmed. Want to bring it to the White House? We should inspire more kids like you to like science. It’s what makes America great.”
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/09/hoax-exposed-muslim-student-ahmed-mohameds-briefcase-clock-is-1970s-digital-alarm-clock/ - 293k -
NY, NJ bombings: Authorities suspect possible terror cell, officials say
Posted 12:14 AM, September 19, 2016, by CNN Wire,
A few blocks away from the blast site and shortly after the explosion occurred, investigators found one possible lead: a pressure cooker, with dark-colored wiring sticking out, connected by silver duct tape to what appears to be a cellphone, officials said.
http://fox43.com/2016/09/19/new-york-bombing-investigators-search-for-suspects-motive/ - 261k -
I know the odds of being hurt by a terrorist attack are about the same as being killed by a pack of rabid Woodchucks, but I think the odds may be improving.
More than 800 immigrants mistakenly granted citizenship
[ALICIA A. CALDWELL]
September 19, 2016
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. government has mistakenly granted citizenship to at least 858 immigrants from countries of concern to national security or with high rates of immigration fraud who had pending deportation orders, according to an internal Homeland Security audit released Monday.
The Homeland Security Department’s inspector general found that the immigrants used different names or birthdates to apply for citizenship with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and such discrepancies
Mistakenly awarding citizenship to someone ordered deported can have serious consequences because U.S. citizens can typically apply for and receive security clearances or take security-sensitive jobs.
At least three of the immigrants-turned-citizens were able to acquire aviation or transportation worker credentials, granting them access to secure areas in airports or maritime facilities and vessels. Their credentials were revoked after they were identified as having been granted citizenship improperly, Roth said in his report.
A fourth person is now a law enforcement officer.
Roth recommended that all of the outstanding cases be reviewed and fingerprints in those cases be added to the government’s database and that immigration enforcement officials create a system to evaluate each of the cases of immigrants who were improperly granted citizenship. DHS officials agreed with the recommendations and said the agency is working to implement the changes.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/more-than-800-immigrants-mistakenly-granted-citizenship/2016/09/19/28151e92-7e6a-11e6-ad0e-ab0d12c779b1_story.html - -
or maybe not
Rabid Woodchuck Chases, Attacks Massachusetts Woman « CBS …
http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2016/09/16/rabid-woodchuck-chases-attacks-massachusetts-woman/ - 118k - Cached - Similar pages
2 days ago … A Massachusetts woman is recovering after being chased and attacked by a rabid woodchuck.
I just got this in an email:
‘Nearly 900 mortgage originators, housing finance experts, and government officials will join Ginnie Mae over the next two days to explore the most critical challenges still facing the housing finance industry. The two-day Summit in Washington, DC will focus on the shift to independent mortgage bankers, new business models for managing mortgage servicing rights, and the uncertain regulatory environment.’
“Independent mortgage bankers now comprise approximately 80 percent of Ginnie Mae’s monthly issuance volume,” said Ginnie Mae President Ted Tozer. “They are an important piece of the continued success of the housing finance industry. However, if we want borrowers to continue to have access to credit, we need to take a serious look at the liquidity challenges these institutions are facing.”
‘The fourth annual Summit takes place as the housing finance industry explores ways to continue providing credit to borrowers despite growing capacity concerns among independent mortgage bankers and decreasing values in mortgage servicing rights. “We cannot underestimate the central role that mortgage servicing rights value play in this market,” Tozer stated. “MSR values are declining at a time when we need to borrow against them or sell them to increase liquidity.”
‘Currently, Ginnie Mae’s outstanding unpaid principal balance exceeds $1.7 trillion dollars, an increase of more than 50 percent in approximately five years. Further, the corporation saw its highest monthly issuance guarantees in history in August with $48.4 billion dollars. Most of this increase is the result of independent mortgage bankers entering the Ginnie Mae program, helping to account for $3.1 trillion in issuance since 2009.’
‘About Ginnie Mae: Ginnie Mae is a wholly-owned government corporation within the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Ginnie Mae pioneered the MBS, guaranteeing the very first security in 1970 and raises capital from investors in the global credit markets to ensure liquidity for affordable rental and homeownership opportunities across the country. Through its MBS, Ginnie Mae finances housing mortgage insurance programs run by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), the Office of Public and Indian Housing (PIH), and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Housing Service. Ginnie Mae securities carry the full faith and credit of the United States Government.’
‘Some much needed relief for Calgary homeowners will be on the table at Monday’s city council meeting. City Administration has come forward with a plan to reduce water and drainage hikes in the coming years, in addition to eliminating the fee for the new green bin program until 2018.’
‘Councillor Evan Woolley likes the idea, but still thinks more can be done. “From people living in social housing to you know, 27,000 jobs lost in downtown Calgary — we’re almost edging up on double digit unemployment and this is a real challenge right now,” he said.’
If you thought the fallout from the global Libor rate-rigging scandal was over, think again.
Australia’s world of high finance and at least a dozen global banks have recently been thrust into the spotlight because of two separate lawsuits.
Court filings allege a key Australian interest rate benchmark was manipulated for hundreds of millions of dollars in “illicit” profit between 2010 and 2012.
It is partly because of the colourful exchanges between traders over phone, email and instant messenger, all set out in these court filings, that charges have been laid.
“You dropping by the casino for Christmas day?” a senior Australian interest rates trader nicknamed “The Rat” allegedly asked another trader in one transcript.
“Which casino? BBSW?” he messaged back.
BBSW is an acronym for Australia’s bank bill swap rate, the local equivalent of Libor. It essentially determines what banks charge to lend to each other.
“Lucky the rate sets are all legit and there is no manipulation within the Australian financial system,” an ANZ trader wrote in a separate incident.
“Ahahah” was the reply, according to court documents.
A decade since those messages were sent, it is safe to say their employers - now being sued - definitely aren’t laughing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37127579
It
Better line up some good asz now
When hc gets in you’ll get fired or worse for asking the same girl out twice
Her-assment
Meh, it’s already too dangerous to ask a girl out at the office.