October 1, 2016

They’re All Outbidding Each Other In A Good Direction

A report from Multi-Housing News. “Coming off a strong year in 2015, student housing investment continues to gain momentum. By August, volume reached $5.7 billion, a 54 percent year-over-year increase that edged out the $5.6 billion tally for all of 2015, according to Real Capital Analytics Inc. Although financing for construction has slowed a bit, acquisition financing is readily available from varied sources as 2016 heads for the home stretch. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are active providers of acquisition financing for student housing and lend stability to the niche.”

“Boosted by low interest rates, refinancing of student housing assets is also healthy. ‘We are at historic lows, with the 10-year Treasury hitting below 1.4 percent right now,’ said Will Baker, a Birmingham, Ala.-based senior vice president & managing director for Walker & Dunlop. ‘I think that’s attracting a lot of people sitting on the fence about whether or not to refinance.’ These low rates have tended to compress cap rates, which have fallen below 6 percent on occasion.”

The Louisville Cardinal in Kentucky. “After four new off-campus student housing options added 2,455 beds in three years, 2016 is the first year without a new project. Has the housing boom halted? U of L Director of Campus Housing Julie Weber said options are market-driven, typically means lower rent prices. ‘They’re all outbidding each other in a good direction for students, which is down,’ she said.”

“The flood of new properties and amenities isn’t just being felt by students – property managers are feeling the impact, too. The average occupancy of the affiliated options and The Retreat for spring 2016 is 84 percent. The Province saw the highest occupancy rate, with 96 percent of its 858 beds filled. The Retreat and The Arch fell below average figures with 76 and 68 percent occupancies, respectively. A 650-bed project called ‘The Village,’ was announced to the U of L Foundation in spring 2014. U of L spokesperson John Karman said the project is now on hold so its owner, American Campus Communities, can look at market conditions.”

“‘It’s on them to do a market study and determine if their investment dollar is going to be well-served by building next to the University of Louisville,’ Weber said of developers. ‘Right now, we’re a little cautious because we have so much high-end housing around the campus we make sure that we’re staying in the right position in terms of number of affiliates,’ Weber said.”

From Bloomberg on New York. “Renters in the New York City area are finally catching a break. According to a new report from listings website StreetEasy, rental prices are rising much more slowly than in recent years, with luxury apartments leading the slump. That deceleration’s happening at a pace that’s caught even industry analysts by surprise. ‘I think we expected things to slowdown,’ StreetEasy economist Krishna Rao said. Still, ‘the pace has been a little bit faster than we expected.’”

The Real Deal. “For Miami renters lamenting the city’s notorious unaffordability, relief may be on its way. The city just lost its title of eighth-most expensive rental market in the country to Chicago for October, falling to ninth place. The ranking comes from listing website Zumper, which tracks asking rents for apartment listings across the country. In Miami, the median monthly rent for a one-bedroom apartment dipped 2.16 percent year-over-year to $1,810 in October, marking one of the city’s first rent decreases in recent history.”

“At the top of Zumper’s list was San Francisco, where the ask for a one-bedroom apartment is a staggering $3,420 per month. Even there, however, rents are on the decline. Rents in San Francisco dipped 5.5 percent year-over-year in October.”

From Multi-Family Biz. “Year-over-year apartment rent declines in some of the nation’s highest-priced markets continued to affect the overall national market, as performance moderated in the third quarter of 2016, according to early figures from Axiometrics, a provider of apartment and student housing market intelligence. ‘While the national apartment market is still performing above the long-term average, the moderation from the unsustainable levels of 2014 and 2015 has come, as Axiometrics predicted,’ said Jay Denton, Axiometrics Senior VP of Analytics. ‘In particular, rent growth has declined precipitously in markets with the highest rents in the country, such as New York and the San Francisco Bay Area.’”

“Rent levels declined year over year in the three major markets with the highest rents — San Francisco, New York and San Jose — and increased by less than 2% in the fourth highest rent-growth metro, Oakland. Although Houston isn’t a high-rent market, its -2.8% rent growth in the third quarter also helped weigh down the national rate. Hartford, Birmingham and Oklahoma City also experienced negative annual rent growth.”

“‘Job growth isn’t bad in the Bay Area and New York, though the rate has slowed over the past year, so demand for apartments is still relatively strong,’ Denton said. ‘However, the amount of new supply that has been and will be delivered to these markets is extremely large and is forcing owners and developers to keep rents lower than they would like so they can remain competitive.’”

“Houston is being affected by job losses in the energy sector, as well as a glut of supply in the urban core Montrose/River Oaks submarket. ‘Urban cores in general are showing slowing performance,’ Denton said. ‘The market is feeling the effects of the concentrated new supply in these submarkets.’”

The Williamette Week in Oregon. “Good news, Portland apartment-dwellers: the city’s skyrocketing rents appear to be going down. In a sign that the crowded Portland apartment market may finally be seeing a smidgen of daylight, median rents for two-bedroom apartments fell significantly in September. The median rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Portland is now $1,600, down 4.1 percent from last month’s median rent, according to Zumper’s National Rent Report for October 2016. According to Zumper’s data, the decrease reflects a broader trend.”

The Star Tribune in Minnesota. “Few multifamily developers have been as active in the Twin Cities market during the recent building boom as Minneapolis-based CPM Cos., founded by principals Daniel Oberpriller and Nick Walton. The pair this week shared their views on the quickly evolving Twin Cities multifamily market. Some excerpts: Q: How as the market changed in the last 12 months? Walton: The easiest way to make a budget look possible has been to have high rents. Along with a sharp demand created by a lack of supply, that’s what was driving so many of these luxury apartment deals. While they have been pretty well received, it just feels like there has been a lot them.”

“Q: Do you feel the multifamily market is cooling off? Walton: What we found is, for example, when we opened some of our earlier luxury buildings, we’d be 50- to 60-percent pre-leased when we opened, but with some of our more recent deliveries, we opened at 25-percent pre-leased. It used to take us three months to fill a building, now it’s taking us six to seven months. So all of our buildings are filling, but you can just feel it and you can see the math — it’s slowing down.”




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128 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-10-01 06:30:26

‘The easiest way to make a budget look possible has been to have high rents’

….

‘Along with a sharp demand created by a lack of supply, that’s what was driving so many of these luxury apartment deals’

Lack of supply? You guys just invented this rich renter story, of course there wasn’t much supply.

‘While they have been pretty well received, it just feels like there has been a lot them’

And a lot of them all over the place at the same time. What drove this? Money, chasing yield. There’s a recession coming. We’re gonna see this “boom” turn off quick. It probably already has with all these stalled condos and apartments.

Comment by butters
2016-10-01 11:06:54

Give loans to renters a la mortgages, problem solved.

I know it’s farfetched now…but it’s coming.

 
Comment by oxide
2016-10-01 12:19:15

And I wonder how much of this is being bundled in rental-backed securities.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-10-01 16:56:30

hey Donk

 
Comment by A Random Realtor
2016-10-02 05:50:19

Shot some sporting clays for the first time yesterday at a charity event with a guy who acted as the buyer’s agent for a private equity firm that ended up buying a huge chunk of the homes whose cash flows are now distributed via those rental backed securities.

Learned a couple of things:

1. The private equity guys got played by the contractors they hired to get the properties up to snuff to get rented. Lots of new roofs for homes that really didn’t need a new roof etc.

2. I prefer shooting at things with a pulse that I can eat afterwards.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-10-02 08:12:34

The next recession is going to be a doozy, as the Fed can’t very well play the rate reduction card when they are already up against the zero bound. What will they try instead? QE4? NIRP?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-02 09:11:33

NIRP and QE-to-Infinity are baked in the cake. Yellen the Felon also floated a trail balloon about the Fed buying equities. Meaning, the Fed is going down exactly the same road as the BoJ, with exactly the same outcome. Luckily for Yellen, 95% of the ‘Murican electorate are docile and stupid, and continue to bend over on demand for these Wall Street-Federal Reserve swindles.

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2016-10-02 10:22:48

Considering the Japan model, it looks like this can well continue until most of us are dead.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-10-01 06:34:13

Record high housing inventory, record low demand, falling rental rates and housing prices.

Hope no one thought that a depreciating asset like a house wasn’t going to be a financial disaster.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-10-01 06:49:52

I can’t link to this because it’s subscription, but here’s a short look:

‘Our July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast said: “Many pension fund assets are far more precariously positioned today than they were before the 2007-2009 bear market. Losses are already mounting.”

‘The publication mentions that the funding gap for public pensions in 2012 was $1.83 trillion. Today, it’s an astounding $3.4 trillion, almost twice as large. A big part of the public pension problem is low yields.’

‘The September Financial Forecast elaborates on how one pension system has ramped up risk to compensate: “The Dallas pension system now has more than half of its assets in alternate investments such as homes in Hawaii, a Napa Valley vineyard, an apartment tower in Dallas and a stake in the American Idol production company. In 2010, Money Management Letter cited the Dallas plan as “one of the best-diversified funds in the U.S.” Six years later, Idol is off the air and the Dallas pension system is the prime exemplar of the danger of diversification in search of higher returns.”

‘Less than a month after the September Financial Forecast published, we learn that financial fear is running rampant among Dallas pensioners. “Dallas’s police and firefighters are quitting in droves, wagering that financial-market losses are about to render their promised pensions too good to be true. With the city considering benefit cuts to help close a retirement-fund shortfall that grew by $1.2 billion last year, more than 200 workers have decided to retire or leave, about double the normal rate. …”

‘The public-safety system has just 45 percent of the assets it needs to cover benefits, down from 64 percent at the end of 2014 and half what it was a decade ago.’

‘Other public pension funds are also in trouble, including the nation’s largest. The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (Calpers) returned only 0.6% on its investments through the year ended June 30. It was the worst performance since the bear market ended in 2009. This is far below the 7½% that Calpers needs to meet its existing obligations.’

Here’s where Mike can chime in and tell us how much money we’ve all saved refinancing shack loans.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-10-01 06:54:30

Refinancing instead of dumping the bad mistake is truly a lost opportunity. Holding onto a depreciating asset simply magnifies already large losses.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-10-01 06:55:40

August 11, 2016

‘The past month has been an emotional roller coaster for Dallas police and firemen. Thursday afternoon, the bad news continued. The Dallas Police and Fire Pension System is a billion dollars in the red, and the plan to bail the system out is already being called “unacceptable” by some.’

‘The bailout plan, unveiled Thursday, is a proposal that police and fire employees knew was coming. But the fact is, the Dallas Police and Fire Pension System is actually closer to $2 billion in the hole.’

‘If things keep going the way they are going, the pension fund will be broke by 2030. That’s why consultants unveiled the bailout plan, which one police veteran called so drastic he believes it will be voted down by rank-and-file.’

‘What’s more, the City of Dallas would immediately have to contribute $600 million into the fund just to keep it solvent. “There is no choice. There have to be deep cuts,” said pension fund board member and Dallas City Councilmember Phillip Kingston. “We tried to make them the least painful as possible. There have to be deep cuts and there is no guarantee the city is going to love contributing the amount that being asked.”

‘The pension fund got into trouble after former administrators made millions of dollars in risky real estate investments. Some of those administrators and advisors are reportedly now under federal investigation. The pension system is in such bad shape pension system officials says dramatic cuts must be made beginning this October.’

And note this is even before anything bad has really happened to the multi-family market. What was it the Federal Reserve paper said recently, “First, do no harm”?

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-10-01 06:59:41

‘Dallas Police & Fire Pension System returned a net -12.6% for the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, said the $2.8 billion retirement system’s annual report. “Real estate performance was adversely impacted by changes in the estimated fair value of certain development stage properties, as well as declines in the estimated enterprise value of certain real estate related business ventures which were previously included in the private equity asset class and reclassified in 2015 to the real estate asset class due to the high correlation of the nature of the business to the real estate industry,” the report stated.’

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-10-02 08:57:52

“Dallas Police & Fire Pension System returned a net -12.6% for the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, said the $2.8 billion retirement system’s annual report.”

How do you factor that into your actuarial investment return assumption?

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Comment by taxpayers
2016-10-01 09:33:12

The sheople need to rise up
401is for all
No more taxpayer bailout of defined benefit plans

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-01 12:13:34

The sheeple will bend over like they always do.

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Comment by In Colorado
2016-10-01 12:46:25

There have to be deep cuts,” said pension fund board member and Dallas City Councilmember Phillip Kingston.

So much for state and muni employee pensions being made whole on the taxpayer’s back.

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2016-10-01 07:30:33

Broke @ss baby boomers get to eat cat food and cut their pills in half, LOLZ.

Your generation sucks.

Comment by Feckless Boomer
2016-10-01 07:41:05

Because succeeding generations have done such a great job fixing things. Especially Gen Whine.

lol, what generation is this guy from?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-30/meet-young-virginia-democrat-registered-19-dead-people-vote-virginia

 
Comment by Feckless Boomer
2016-10-01 07:44:41

OTOH, what generation is this guy from? My hat’s off to him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5zebaFFsQY

Alex Jones owes him $5,000.00

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-10-01 07:45:21

Personally, I don’t think it’s going to be funny. Imagine the pull on “consumer confidence” when millions of people find out their retirements are going to be diminished or wiped out, when life insurance comes up short. Don’t think it can happen? It’s already happening. This is what you get when powerful people think money can be free. And it can’t be turned back. These people can’t work another 20 years and make it up. These pensions and life insurance companies rely on compounded returns and those years are gone. What’s worse, they stampeded into high risk bets like American Idol and luxury student housing that will cause principle (!) to go poof. Not just no returns, what they put in goes away!

Comment by Don't Think It's Happening? It's Already Happening.
2016-10-01 08:07:01

It won’t be funny but a necessary and imminent dose of medicine to end this terminal economy of a decade or more. Yes there will be pain for many. In particular homeowners.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-10-01 08:20:57

Let me ask you this: what medicine should a Dallas pensioner take this morning? Don’t they know about this situation and it’s affecting them every day? IMO, there are some dots to connect here:

‘Bitter internal strife, plunging support among voters and surging populism: has there ever been a worse time to be a centre-left party in Europe? A dozen years ago, left-of-centre giants seemed a natural source of government in many European states. But today the tally of parties that are declining, sidelined or ideologically adrift is long.’

‘In Germany, the Social Democratic Party has lost half its members since 1998. In France, President Francois Hollande is the most unpopular president in his country’s modern history and would be routed if he stands in next year’s presidential elections, according to opinion polls.’

‘Centre-left parties recently lost power in Denmark, a stronghold of social democracy, and registered their worst-ever results in Finland and Poland. In Greece, support for the once dominant Pasok has plunged to just six percent.’

“Social democracy is a shadow of itself,” German political analyst Albrecht von Lucke said on NDR television channel. “We are dealing with decline of historic proportions.”

‘For many commentators, the finger of blame points at globalisation. They say immigration has become a lightning rod for anger, with older manual workers blaming an influx of foreign labour for job insecurity and lower wages.’

“The metropolitan elite think ‘great, free movement, we’re all multicultural,’ but the working class don’t really see the benefits and feel threatened by it,” says Isabelle Hertner, a lecturer at King’s College London. “The average person doesn’t necessarily benefit, just the best qualified people. It’s difficult for centre-left parties to bridge that gap.”

‘Other perceived factors in the centre-left’s decline are the 2008 financial crisis, China’s entry into the world economy, shrunken public coffers and technological innovation. Put together, these have savaged the credibility of the “third-way” politics championed by Bill Clinton, Tony Blair and other Social Democrats once ruling Europe.’

‘The model embraced capitalism, globalisation and vast public spending programmes to vacuum up votes among both the comfortable middle classes and industrial heartlands during the booming 1990s and early 2000s.’

‘Post-crash, the traditional far-left became emboldened by the apparent failure of the centre-left’s vision of capitalism, and with its subsequent austerity programmes. “A lot of centre-left parties were actually in power, so you think ‘you have not regulated financial markets, so what’s the point in voting for you?’” said Hertner.’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-10-01 08:30:33

“The metropolitan elite think ‘great, free movement, we’re all multicultural,’ but the working class don’t really see the benefits and feel threatened by it,” says Isabelle Hertner, a lecturer at King’s College London. “The average person doesn’t necessarily benefit, just the best qualified people.”

The best people, like yourself Isabelle? Elite? Is that what we’ve come back to? I don’t see this situation as medicine. It looks more like the French Revolution. Clueless globalists flailing around, trying to stay in power, blinded by their arrogance and dismissive of accountability for their failures. Here we have a whole lot of people who could end up with nothing just when they need it most. And globalist Yellen is afraid to raise interest rates a quarter of one percent?

Almost everyone who is in power is a globalist. Globalism is largely a central bank project. Go back and look at the role of Greenspan and Volcker. The fat cats and bureaucrats that set it up turned to them for the structure. It has failed and their only solution is more globalism, more money printing, more inequality. Open borders, amnesty, more off-shoring; they see no problems. But the peasants are restless. Angry even. Would you be angry if you were a Dallas pensioner this morning? Had there been the traditional fixed income investments available not near so much risk would have been incurred.

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-10-01 08:46:52

“Isabelle Hertner, a lecturer at King’s College London.”

Ah, Isabelle is an academic. Many academics fancy themselves as members of the elite, until their betters throw them under the bus.

At some point the whole tenure/education/academic complex is also gonna go blooey, and then whatever will these hacks do?

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2016-10-01 09:01:23

I posted this on a friend’s Fakebook in reply to some shill post for Hillary bemoaning the prospect of The Donald winning:

“the version quoted by Brody is even worse, as it indicates that Kael was actually acknowledging her provincialism (“I live in a rather special world”) and from its perch expressing her distaste for the unwashed masses with whom she sometimes had to share a movie theater. What this indicates is that, even then, liberal provincialism was as proud of its provincialism as any Babbitt.”

https://www.commentarymagazine.com/culture-civilization/the-actual-pauline-kael-quote%e2%80%94not-as-bad-and-worse/

 
Comment by rms
2016-10-01 13:33:44

“At some point the whole tenure/education/academic complex is also gonna go blooey, and then whatever will these hacks do?”

Better sell your Saab and Volvo shares. Many of the bricks-n-motar intelligentsia will be replaced by online courses.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-10-01 18:43:22

The university was invented in Italy over 900 years ago. You probably won’t live to see its end.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-10-01 19:28:35

Better sell your Saab and Volvo shares.

Saab went out of business and closed the doors for good in 2012.

Volvo Cars is a wholly owned subsidiary of Geely Motors, in China.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-10-01 19:32:56

The university was invented in Italy over 900 years ago. You probably won’t live to see its end.

True, but it’s going to change, especially the super expensive American version. I think that’s what Palmetto meant by “go blooey”. Sure, there will be higher ed. But I expect that it will be much smaller and very slimmed down, without the armies of well paid administrators and tenured faculty.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-10-01 20:05:39

It’s possible that state legislatures will put some pressure on their universities to cut back on administrators a little, but going blooey is something else altogether. Administrators also don’t have tenure, professors do.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2016-10-01 20:51:28

Armies of tenured faculty already are a thing of the past. A lot of teaching is done by adjuncts.

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2016-10-01 08:22:56

Ben Jones anybody who does a cash out refi to pay for shiny toys and vacations and ends up broke at 65 deserves everything they have coming.

This is who I am LMFAO at, specifically.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-10-01 08:46:47

‘deserves everything they have coming’

I’m not saying they don’t. Think back a few years. We watched the bubble crack up. Everyday in my wall street and washington posts, we saw billions vanish. Then posters started saying, “crap, I got laid off.” I don’t see how we avoid that now. If Greenspan was reckless for “keeping rates too low for too long”, what have Bernanke and Yellen done? QE was unimaginable when I started this blog. Now it’s a world-wide central banker policy regularity.

Let me describe one apartment deal I listened to on the radio. Group raised 2.5 million or so. Bought and remodeled a Houston complex, spent just over 9 million with loans. Within a year it was appraised at 11 million and they refinanced 60% of the equity back out and Group pocketed that.

So these guys have a lot less skin in the game. A 10% correction (not exactly out of the possibility in glut town Houston) will put them underwater. A recession puts them in default. Here’s the kicker; this was within the last year and it was told as a glorious success story that all should emulate. Multiply that deal by many thousands and you have an idea of how bad this could get.

 
 
Comment by Bluto
2016-10-01 09:42:02

I retired early 4 years ago and was very fortunate to have a cash out option for my pension…thanks to the madness of QE and ZIRP the cash out amount was waaay higher than it would have been had interest rates been normal. Rolled it into an IRA which has been doing OK so far…but fully realize that could change very quickly.

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Comment by rms
2016-10-01 15:02:25

“These pensions and life insurance companies rely on compounded returns and those years are gone.”

…’twas foam on the runway.

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Comment by In Colorado
2016-10-01 12:51:03

Broke @ss baby boomers get to eat cat food and cut their pills in half

Nah. They’ll stick get something. All that means is they’ll live in a modest condo instead of a gold course home and they’ll take fewer and less lavish vacations (Vegas, not Europe), eat out less, etc.

They’ll be fine, though very disappointed. The generations that follow will be far worse off.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-10-01 21:59:32

We won’t all be disappointed.

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Comment by Bluto
2016-10-01 09:26:39

Interesting stuff and no doubt we will see a similar situation in many California counties in the near future…here the pension fiasco was caused by bumping “public safety” pensions up 50% 10-15 years ago and not funding that. Many counties are slowly sliding into bankruptcy as the pension benefits come out of the general fund…in the meantime roads are very poorly maintained, etc…
Typically public safety pensions here are 3% X years of service once you reach 50…so it is not unusual for someone in their early 50’s to bail at nearly full pay plus health benefits. Many of them will be drawing this for 30-40 years, no way in hell this can work in the long run.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-10-01 09:31:53

Many pension fund assets are far more precariously positioned today than they were before the 2007-2009 bear market.

Talked to a dude the other day who is moving back to his high tax home state, in part because he’s homesick. But get this: he also said that taxes are “too low” here in the Centennial State and he complained that TABOR was too draconian as a reason for going back. He also said that paying 0.5% property tax was “too low”

I wished him well and told him that he would be paying those taxes he loves to fund 100% full pensions for governments workers back home (and probably even more taxes to make them whole) while he would have to scrimp and save to fund his own retirement (he works in the private sector)

He seemed to be OK with that.

Comment by Malinvestment
2016-10-01 09:40:42

Based on your ‘conversations’ with individuals, it seems like CO is a strange place.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-10-01 10:11:36

The dude in question is from … hang on to your hat … Illinois. He’s only been here a few years and he hates it, he finally arranged to be able to telecommute and is heading home soon.

So maybe it’s people from Illinois who are strange.

As for Colorado, it has to be the most libertarian state in the country, so I guess that would make it seem “strange” to most Americans who are used to paying taxes through the nose, and getting little in return.

It attracts young midwesterners who come here to barhop and ski. But some have trouble adapting to the Colorado “culture” which is neither western nor midwestern, so some end up moving on. People here like to call it “Mountain West”, but even that isn’t uniform in the Rocky Mountain states.

Got TABOR?

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Comment by butters
2016-10-01 10:31:47

red neck state

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-10-01 12:52:27

red neck state

Then don’t complain about your taxes in your “elite” state.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2016-10-01 18:41:05

Keep in mind that you’re mistaken if you think that red neck state means people living on farms and in small towns. Most Coloradans probably live in high density suburbs in SFHs on lots smaller than a quarter acre. Many of them drive their pickup trucks to office jobs.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-10-01 19:36:24

Plus the fact that most came here from somewhere else, like Apt 401.

 
Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2016-10-02 11:27:35

“Plus the fact that most came here from somewhere else, like Apt 401.”

And you. Any reason you failed to mention that?

 
 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2016-10-01 13:00:22

Talked to a dude the other day who is moving back to his high tax home state, in part because he’s homesick. But get this: he also said that taxes are “too low” here in the Centennial State and he complained that TABOR was too draconian as a reason for going back. He also said that paying 0.5% property tax was “too low”

On the assumption that he doesn’t just like to give money away, what is he hoping to get from Colorado in return for paying more taxes?

Comment by In Colorado
2016-10-01 19:23:57

Beats me. He mumbled something about “lack of government services” and “lack of investment in education”/

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-10-01 07:05:26

‘Boosted by low interest rates, refinancing of student housing assets is also healthy. ‘We are at historic lows, with the 10-year Treasury hitting below 1.4 percent right now,’ said Will Baker, a Birmingham, Ala.-based senior vice president & managing director for Walker & Dunlop. ‘I think that’s attracting a lot of people sitting on the fence about whether or not to refinance.’ These low rates have tended to compress cap rates, which have fallen below 6 percent on occasion.’

All these guys have been refinancing (or flipping) their complexes over and over for years, pulling cash out and chasing the next deal. It has been a frenzy, pushed further by GSE backing even for the student stuff. They really believed and told each other repeatedly, “it’s never, ever going to end.”

Comment by rms
2016-10-01 15:36:21

“It has been a frenzy, pushed further by GSE backing even for the student stuff.”

I haven’t heard, milf, Bethany McLean comment on GSE backing for student housing projects. She seems to think we can’t get through modern life without the GSEs.

 
 
Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
2016-10-01 09:15:38

(Sob!) we did not get a token salary increase this year. The last pay period was the one where a year ago we got 3%. And that was my first increase since 2010.

There is a side project I spend evenings and weekends and it greatly increases your personal privacy on computer devices. It is lots of applied mathematics based on group signatures.

And I have an interest in joining Zcash as an engineer. It has some great mathematicians on its team. I think I could work with one of the mathematicians to encode her decentralization ideas. She is sharp. First I have to finish my project and deploy it to the peers and that will be on my resume and LinkedIn.

In the meantime Its great to still have a job and still fund my Roth 401k and move further into financial independence.

Comment by In Colorado
2016-10-01 09:33:43

We’re still waiting to find out. If there is any pay raise budget, it will only go to the top 15% of performers.

Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
2016-10-01 09:39:08

I have a lease renewal in January. The one bedrooms are advertised at $200 per month more than I am paying now. But I read recently that the unoccupied units are being upgraded. Meanwhile a lot of clusters of new construction of apartment complexes by the hundreds of units all over the part of Irvine where my office is. They are probably high end only.

My company has been long time notoriously cheap. I knew it before I joined three years ago. Maybe they really want people to do side projects and improve their marketability to move on.

 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-10-01 10:08:04

Gov workers get raises and cola increases,always

Comment by In Colorado
2016-10-01 10:14:54

Gov workers get raises and cola increases,always

So why don’t you get TABOR on your ballot?

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Comment by taxpayers
2016-10-01 12:42:25

working on it-
the source of overspending is the hard thing for pols to admit

 
 
Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
2016-10-01 13:31:09

Also the salaried workers on defense programs always get cost of living increases. Not the 1099 consultants though. Defense spending is the biggest scam. It’s the MIC that has to be dissolved.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2016-10-01 13:03:05

In the meantime Its great to still have a job and still fund my Roth 401k and move further into financial independence.

Did you ever buy the Mustang? The new ones are amazing, especially the GT350s.

Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
2016-10-01 13:29:21

I am leaning toward just accumulating more stock in the company that makes my car and use the dividends to pay for the maintenance. The stuff they are putting in the car is very intrusive on your privacy. My company is involved with the big auto companies and the new cars these days are like a smartphone with GPS and your personal ID. You HBBers against smart phones better hang onto the older cars.

 
 
Comment by rms
2016-10-01 15:53:33

“(Sob!) we did not get a token salary increase this year.”

I read that gubmnt contractors will get paid sick leave. Cheer up.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-10-01 16:20:40

I was a gubment contractor. I got vacation pay and 2 days sick leave in the year 2001 and partly into 2002. After that, no paid vacation or sick leave. That’s how it is normally in job shops. I had no paid vacation from early 2002 to mid 2013.

 
 
 
Comment by Don!
2016-10-01 09:38:36

You build a taller wall someone builds a taller ladder.

The only secure place for communications anymore are highway rest area bathrooms. Kill three birds with one stone.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-10-02 03:45:41

So sorry that the stress of the campaign has you coming unhinged.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-10-02 08:25:43

Politics
Hillary Clinton ran a perfect psyop to derange Donald Trump
Josh Barro
Sep. 30, 2016, 2:11 PM

 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-10-01 10:06:58

Only gov workers will retire

We keep challenging pols in my county and state
Age 55 w 75% pensions

Comment by In Colorado
2016-10-01 10:18:03

Why don’t you move to a lower tax locale?

I don’t get the complaining about taxes, then just shrugging and paying them while saying “watcha gonna do?”

Comment by phony scandals
2016-10-01 12:23:33

Highest and Lowest Property Taxes by County

There’s a Big Difference Between the Highest and Lowest County Property Taxes

By Tonya Moreno, CPA
Updated September 08, 2016

Highest Property Taxes by County

The two most expensive counties – Westchester and Rockland – are both in New York. Median taxes paid in Westchester County were $13,842 according to the Zillow analysis, followed by Rockland County at $10,550. Compare these figures with the national median that year: $2,132.

It gets a little cheaper if you live in New Jersey, but not much. The third and fourth most expensive counties on the list were Bergen and Essex in the Garden State at $9,546 and $9,288 respectively. Nassau County in New York was fifth at $9,091. Homeowners in Passaic County, New Jersey paid just a tad less: $8,978.

Union ($8,926), Morris ($8,549), Hudson ($8,407) and Hunterdon ($8,392) Counties in New Jersey bring up the rear of this dubious top 10 list.
Lowest Property Taxes by County

Head south if you want to pay less in property taxes. The median is only $216 a year in Tunica County, Mississippi.

Yes, you read that right — $13,626 less than what residents paid in Westchester County, New York. But Mississippi isn’t the state with the most counties on the least expensive top 10 list. That distinction goes to Alabama, with four counties:

Bibb County — $228
Walker County — $244
Blount County — $344

St. Clair County — $470

Another three notably inexpensive counties are scattered about the south: Amelia County in Virginia at $358 a year, Fayette County in Tennessee at $410, and Meriwether County, Georgia at $457. Out west in Lincoln County, Oklahoma, residents pay $402 in median property taxes, ranking the county seventh on the list of the 10 least expensive.

Butler County, Pennsylvania – ironically a state neighbor to New York and New Jersey – makes it onto the least expensive list, too, at number six. Residents here pay a median of $397 in property taxes.

https://www.thebalance.com/highest-and-lowest-property-taxes-by-county-3193292 - 175k -

Comment by taxpayers
2016-10-01 12:45:03

PA is a surprise- they have separate school taxes so it may be bs

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Comment by taxpayers
2016-10-01 12:48:11

where’s scdave and h2o- they love to pay !

I call bs on PA- they charge a separate tax for the chillens-school tax

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Comment by phony scandals
2016-10-01 12:35:01

“Why don’t you move to a lower tax locale?”

That wouldn’t be Palm Beach or Jupiter Island.

Tiger Woods: Elin’s Finally Been Paid Off IN FULL!

March 16, 2016 by Jose Lambiet

JUPITER ISLAND — It’s official: Golfer Tiger Woods has made good on his divorce settlement agreement — and ex-wife Elin Nordegren has released the $54.5 million-mortgage she held on Woods’ Jupiter Island house until he was all paid up,

Woods’ property, about 10 acres from the ocean to the Intracoastal, is estimated to be worth about $57 million by the Martin County Property Appraiser’s Office.

Woods pays close to $1 million in yearly property taxes.

http://www.gossipextra.com/2016/03/16/tiger-woods-makes-final-54-million-divorce-payment-ex-wife-elin-nordegren-5755/ - 91k -

Comment by snake charmer
2016-10-01 14:14:16

There’s still no state income tax here, thus our popularity with athletes.

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Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
2016-10-01 14:02:18

Or at least accumulate stick in low or no dividend companies and then when selling, you already moved to a state that taxes neither income nor capital gains, or at least has a way low tax rate. I still love Arizona.

Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
2016-10-01 14:44:21

Stick = stock…

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Comment by jerzdebil
2016-10-01 10:38:34

And what if the govt actually acknowledges we’re back in recession and implements NIRP? All the pensions blow up, massive strife between the govt employees wanting their gilded retirements and the masses that dont want to pay for it. Good job Alan/Ben/Janet/((a tribe member yet to be named))!

Comment by butters
2016-10-01 10:40:23

They will admit no such a thing and still implement NIRP.

Amerikka, what a fukushima!

 
Comment by butters
2016-10-01 10:44:43

You will be called antisemi for saying tribe there. But you gotta wonder how in a country of 300 mil, the 2% population has all the control. I think it’s about time we implement quota system in everything.

Comment by USA First
2016-10-01 12:45:36

‘You will be called antisemi for saying tribe there.’

Screw em.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-01 12:24:34

‘Muricans, meet your future once the Comrades of Proven Worth (D) get their permanent Democrat supermajority and can take the “redistribution of the wealth” to a whole new level. Forward!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3816999/Hungry-Venezuelans-stop-livestock-truck-steal-crates-chickens-country-s-food-shortage-spirals-control.html

 
Comment by azdude
2016-10-01 13:19:34

everyone is so leveraged a 10% correction could leave them insolvent.

CAVEAT EMPTOR

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2016-10-01 14:49:58

Another boring pic of some ugly @ss mountains:

http://www.picpaste.com/20161001_154249.jpg

Comment by palmetto
2016-10-01 15:34:26

Brown and arid.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-10-01 17:35:38

Where are you, Sarasota? I haven’t seen any beach sunsets from there. My mom and my cousin live in St Pete right on the water and everything they show me is beautiful. If you don’t like boring pics of rocks, don’t click the link.

BTW when you leave Denver, heading south thru Colorado Springs and into the non-resort mountain towns that have economies where people actually have to work for a living, the Trump signs and stickers multiply. I hope half the population of Boulder has a stroke and dies after he is elected before they can move to Canada.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-10-01 18:20:03

Guided by Voices — On The Tundra (1992):

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=j22fnL-56uQ

Guided by Voices — My Impresson Now (1993):

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8DFb_THYcXc

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Comment by aNYCdj
2016-10-01 18:55:33

sorry thats when music turned WUSSIE, and ghetto…..the 90’s you cant even give those cd’s away…

 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2016-10-01 20:58:53

I’ve spent most of my life living in flat, hot places, so I like to look at mountains — to me they are exotic, especially when snow-capped.

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Comment by rms
2016-10-01 16:25:46

I like the Fall colors.

The Columbia Basin’s summer heat is gone now, and the leaves are brown and yellow these days. It’s the best time of year in these “four-seasons” places, IMHO.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-01 15:40:37

Meanwhile, the stealth banker bailouts continue in the PIIGS.

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/10/01/stealth-bailout-merger-bankia-banco-mare-nostrum-spain/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-01 15:46:25

Send us your huddled MENAs yearning to get away from neocon wars and sign up as Democrat lifetime dependency voters.

http://www.thedailysheeple.com/white-house-set-to-create-new-racial-category-for-middle-easterners-mena_102016

Comment by rms
2016-10-01 22:24:29

Okay… adding MENA to my next firmware image.

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-10-01 16:19:56

Hurricane Matthew is threatening Haiti and those poor Haitians still haven’t recovered from the earthquake and being ripped off by Bill, Hillary and Chelsea Clinton.

REPORT: The Clinton Foundation Enriched Itself By Ripping Off Haiti After 2010 Earthquake

Aleister Jul 18th, 2016 11:04 am

Plenty of speculation has revolved around the Clinton Foundation and some have suggested it’s nothing more than a slush fund for Bill and Hillary Clinton posing as a charitable non-profit.

Dinesh D’Souza confirms many people’s suspicions in his new book Hillary’s America. D’Souza provided an enlightening excerpt from the book today at National Review:

How the Clinton Foundation Got Rich off Poor Haitians

In January 2015 a group of Haitians surrounded the New York offices of the Clinton Foundation. They chanted slogans, accusing Bill and Hillary Clinton of having robbed them of “billions of dollars.” Two months later, the Haitians were at it again, accusing the Clintons of duplicity, malfeasance, and theft. And in May 2015, they were back, this time outside New York’s Cipriani, where Bill Clinton received an award and collected a $500,000 check for his foundation. “Clinton, where’s the money?” the Haitian signs read. “In whose pockets?” Said Dhoud Andre of the Commission Against Dictatorship, “We are telling the world of the crimes that Bill and Hillary Clinton are responsible for in Haiti.”

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/07/report-clinton-foundation-enriched-ripping-off-haiti-2010-earthquake/ - 245k -

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-02 09:16:26

Another hurricane hitting Haiti will bring new opportunities for more lucrative frauds and scams by the Clinton Foundation and DNC-aligned NGOs. Forward!

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2016-10-01 16:46:57

Portland’s Small-House Movement is Catching On

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/style/portland-affordable-housing-solutions-tiny-homes.html

you dont need big anymore

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-10-01 17:07:18

Pictures speak a thousand words:

‘Crazy pictures of micro-apartments around the world’

‘Another style is the “cage home,” a stackable six-foot by two-foot wire box, also located in Hong Kong. Hundreds of elderly men, such as Kong Siu-Kau, live in these conditions. In one such building, up to 12 men can live together in tightly packed cages. The conditions are squalid. There are bed bugs and putrid smells.’

‘Until the Hong Kong government acknowledges the danger of the conditions, however, the best residents can do is protest. The cages are where many will live out their remaining years.’

Comment by rms
2016-10-01 22:29:05

That Mumbai, India shot… all the exterior decks are enclosed behind wire to keep the porch-climbers out. LOLZ.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-10-01 17:03:07

‘Cosi has closed its Woodmont Avenue restaurant in Bethesda. The sandwich shop this week announced the closure on a sign posted on a window fronting the store.’

‘The Boston-based fast-casual chain filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy Wednesday and plans to sell itself to lenders, according to The Wall Street Journal. The report noted the business has closed 29 stores since Monday and laid off more than 450 workers at it struggles to pay off nearly $20 million in debt. Over the past year the publicly traded company’s stock price has dropped from a little over $1 to 7 cents as of Thursday.’

‘The closure leaves another vacancy along the Woodmont Avenue stretch of Bethesda Row. Max Brenner Chocolate Bar, two doors away from Cosi, closed in June.’

A comment:

‘MT Pockets • I am sure a $15 sandwich shop will take its place or not. Max Brenner and it’s $10 hot cocoa closed up as well. Maybe people in downtown Bethesda do have less disposable income after paying half million plus for a one bedroom condo.’

20 million Yellen Bucks just went poof.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-01 17:10:21

I still can’t understand why people pay $4 for a cup of coffee they can brew at home for a fraction of the cost.

Comment by YellenBux
2016-10-01 17:20:28

Nothing too difficult to understand. It’s just like housing….. when you can buy it on credit it the price doesn’t matter knowing that you’ll never acquire it any other way. It’s the most primal form of degenerate gambling.

 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-10-01 17:12:47

‘MT Pockets • I am sure a $15 sandwich shop will take its place or not. Max Brenner and it’s $10 hot cocoa closed up as well. Maybe people in downtown Bethesda do have less disposable income after paying half million plus for a one bedroom condo.’

MT Pockets. :mrgreen:

 
Comment by snake charmer
2016-10-01 21:00:05

How’s the Grilled Cheese Truck doing?

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-01 18:14:46

The ‘tards who voted for hope n’ change Goldman Sachs can believe in are getting their reality check. Wasn’t Obamacare supposed to save the average family $2500?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-01/obamacare-rates-soar-minnesota-commissioner-slams-unfair-unsustainable-system-crushi

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-10-01 18:26:15

Even higher priced insurance?

Why is it so difficult for people to understand that it is only falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels accelerate the economy, create jobs and raise the standard of living?

Comment by azdude
2016-10-02 06:14:55

obamacare raised prices lame

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-02 06:22:28

Why is it so difficult for people to understand that it is only falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels accelerate the economy, create jobs and raise the standard of living?

Because we have a dumbed-down populace.

Comment by azdude
2016-10-02 06:38:44

Has the fed actually sold ( balance sheet reduced) any of the bonds it bought in the crisis?

Has the balance sheet went down?

It appears that when the bonds they bought come up for maturity they simply take the money and buy more, or roll them over.

Do you think the FED wants to crush its balance sheet with higher rates? If you do u are a very gullible person.

I think their balance sheet is unlimited and they will soon be monetizing most of the treasury debt.

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Comment by In Colorado
2016-10-02 09:31:11

I doubt they’ve been selling off any treasuries. And you can bet that other central banks around the world are playing the same game. Governments everywhere are up to their eyeballs in debt.

 
 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-10-01 18:51:11

“middle-class Minnesotans” are being “crushed by the heavy burden of these costs.”

Talked to a 57 year old gentleman yesterday who is still put there bustin’ his @ss, said his health insurance for he and his wife had gone up to $1,650 a month recently.

He was already on payment plans for previous co pays from when his wife had problems earlier in the year. He has always had health insurance but he was about at the end of the road with it.

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-10-01 20:07:11

” 57 year old gentleman yesterday who is still put there bustin’ his @ss,”

57 is my age. When you are fit and trim at 57 you are young. “Still” is a funny word. 57 is the new 45. Stay hydrated, limit your net calories so that you drop your body fat down below 20% and no lower than 10%, drink coffee, eat lots of vegetables and get plenty of rest. Stand at least 5 hours a day. Your energy level from all this will be much higher.

I think Combo is older than me and he is my inspiration about working. Think of the salary and compensation you are making. Now think how much money you would need in a 4% yielding bond to equate to those wages and compensation. Having a job is a good thing.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-02 06:21:27

57 is the new 45.

No, Bill. 57 is still 57 any way you slice it. Surrender gracefully the things of youth.

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Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
2016-10-02 09:01:48

You do not own your job.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-10-02 09:24:28

57 is still 57 any way you slice it.

Agreed. Sure, some 57′ers are healthier than others (especially in this age of rampant obesity), but in the end, no matter what you do, you can’t fight your genetic weakpoints. For some it might be male pattern baldness. For others it can be arthritis or diabetes. And for some it could be a defective ticker.

I knew far too many people who were thin, who exercised, who “ate right” and did all the “right things” and who keeled over and died in their 40’s.

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-10-02 15:32:49

“I knew far too many people who were thin, who exercised, who “ate right” and did all the “right things” and who keeled over and died in their 40’s.”

This dude used to jog by us in the late 70s when we were in high school while we were at Tod’s Point drinking beer.

JAMES F. FIXX DIES JOGGING; AUTHOR ON RUNNING WAS 52

By JANE GROSS
Published: July 22, 1984

James F. Fixx, who spurred the jogging craze with his best-selling books about running and preached the gospel that active people live longer, died of a heart attack Friday while on a solitary jog in Vermont. He was 52 years old.

http://www.nytimes.com/1984/07/22/obituaries/james-f-fixx-dies-jogging-author-on-running-was-52.html - -

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by azdude
2016-10-02 05:06:06

A closely watched pot never boils over!

MOAR STAWKS!

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-02 06:24:01

Obama is exploding the national debt. Hope n’ change, Bitchez….

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/10/01/why-u-s-government-deficit-numbers-are-a-big-lie-national-debt/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-02 06:26:49

Get ready for more bailouts of the un-fixed global financial system.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/01/its-not-just-deutsche-european-banking-is-utterly-broken/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by rms
2016-10-02 12:36:31

Talk about a rabbit hole. Black budget.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-02 06:39:09

Once we have our permanent Democratic supermajority and the Comrades of Proven Worth (D) preside over all of our urban centers, the dystopia can reach Chicago levels. Forward!

http://www.newsday.com/opinion/oped/i-never-worry-i-ll-be-shot-in-chicago-after-all-i-m-white-1.12389543

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-02 06:44:17

Hillary should do better due dilligence on her “Trump victims.”

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2016/09/former-miss-universe-in-trump.html

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-10-02 08:55:01

“Clinton’s people should have done a better due diligence. Machado has had a checkered past over those twenty five years, and having a child with a most wanted narco is just one of those.”

Donald’s people should have done a better job of getting him to do some homework before the debate, in the hopes of keeping him from coming unhinged over a petty dispute with a Hispanic female beauty pageant contestant.

 
Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-02 09:20:26

How adorable - our resident anarcho-capitalist” is now Big Brother’s little helper and shilling for Hillary. Big Bad Bill is Sweet William now….

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qE2cEh_eZk

Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-10-02 12:28:51
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Comment by The Selfish Hoarder
2016-10-02 12:32:07

Nothing in my post is favorable to Hillary. I. Don’t. Vote.

How many times do I have to call you retarded for thinking that since I do not like your God, that I like your God’s “Opponent?”

And some opponent. They are the best of friends. Their policies only differ by the fact that Trump is a blatant racist and Nazi while Hillary hides her racism and fascism.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-02 14:08:11

Your grip on reality appears tenuous, my friend.

The bizarre rant on “my God” indicates your rate of unraveling is accelerating. Seek help with that.

The flagship of the corporate-captured MSM, the Washington Post, has pulled a Bill by tracking some some poor, pathetic, mentally ill woman and holding her up as a typical Trump supporter. Pravda columists would blush at such blatant and tasteless smear tactics.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/outrage-washington-post-takes-advantage-mentally-ill-woman-smear-trump/

 
 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-10-02 13:33:55

It is amazing how the MSM is protecting Hillary/Miss Universe.

1 and 19 down in today’s Sunday Funnies sums it up although 4 down is truly Hilarious.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-10-02 16:45:23

Acts of Love for September. Crony capitalists and Libertarians want open borders.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/10/02/open-borders-rap-sheet-crime-immigrants-september/

 
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