Sooner Or Later, The Free-Wheeling Fun Cools Off
A report from Reuters. “U.S. apartment vacancy rate was unchanged at 4.4 percent in the third quarter from the second, while rent growth decelerated in a period that generally sees the strongest increase, real estate research firm Reis Inc said. ‘Developers had enjoyed healthy rent growth and significant pre-leasing just a few short years ago when the housing market was struggling to gain footing. But since then developers have been overbuilding in some markets as demand has ebbed somewhat,’ Reis economist Barbara Denham said in a statement.”
The Wall Street Journal. “Apartment rents declined in some of the country’s priciest cities during the third quarter, a dramatic reversal that could signal the end of a six-year boom for the U.S. rental market. ‘San Francisco and New York are leading the way in the downturn,’ said Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center of Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California at Berkeley. ‘People are going to be surprised that this is happening but they shouldn’t be. It’s been too far, too fast.’”
“The same downtown areas that drove the boom are now the deepest pockets of weakness. ‘You’re going to see red right in the middle of every market. That’s the one place where supply and demand are out of balance,’ said Jay Denton, senior vice president of analytics for Axiometrics.”
“In San Jose, buildings such as the Ascent, which opened in September 2015 with one-bedroom units starting around $ 2,500, are now offering new tenants two months of free rent. Eugene Korsunsky, president of Intempus Realty, a San Jose real-estate brokerage firm that manages apartments and single-family homes for landlords, said for the past couple of years apartments sat on the market for about a week. Now it can take him nearly a month to find a tenant, he said. ‘We’ve actually had to drop the rent on some properties, which I don’t think I’ve ever done in my career,’ he said.”
“‘We’re late year-six, early year-seven of the recovery,’ said Greg Willett, chief economist at RealPage, a property management company. ‘That’s about time for a recession by historical standards.’”
The Detroit Free Press in Michigan. “So many new housing developments are coming to greater downtown Detroit that it’s easy to lose track. Last week alone, four fresh projects with potentially 600-700 units took big steps toward becoming reality. Those four projects come on top of the 1,000 or so units already under construction around central Detroit and perhaps at least 1,000 more units in various stages of the planning pipeline.”
“I asked Arthur Jemison, director of Detroit’s Housing & Revitalization office, about how many potential renters and buyers really want to move downtown. ‘I don’t think I’m worried about overbuilding yet but I think about that a lot,’ Jemison told me, suggesting that we may be another 500 or so units away from satisfying current market demand. If that’s true, then some of the planned projects may not fill up as fast as their developers hope.”
“I’m not suggesting we’re approaching the saturation point in downtown Detroit’s housing market. But downtown right now is bringing on new housing like sailors first coming ashore. Sooner or later, the free-wheeling fun cools off. We just don’t know if that will happen tomorrow or five years from now.”
The Wichita Eagle in Kansas. “Wichita apartment rental rates, already among the lowest in American cities, fell slightly over the past year, according to the Apartment List website. The median rent is $520 for a one-bedroom and $640 for a two-bedroom unit, down 1.5 percent from a year ago. Wichita has seen a flurry of apartment development in the past two years, with hundreds of new units, which tends to mean lower rents for a time.”
Bloomberg on New York. “There are a lot more apartments available for purchase these days in Manhattan. And fewer people are buying. Sales of previously owned condominiums and co-ops fell 20 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier as potential buyers grew cautious amid more choices, according to a report Tuesday from appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate. There were 5,290 resale apartments on the market at the end of September, 53 percent more than the number available in late 2013, the lowest point for listings.”
“Many sellers have yet to accept that they can no longer name any price, and the disconnect between their expectations and what buyers are willing to pay is contributing to the drop in overall sales, said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel. ‘We’re clearly seeing a slowdown,’ Miller said. ‘This era of aspirational pricing is coming to an end. Buyers get the message first.’”
The New York Times. “Financing commercial property has been local banks’ bread-and-butter business for years, but a postcrisis push for loan growth prompted regulatory warnings about lax lending standards, and small banks are now shying away from the market. A shakeout in commercial real estate is under way as some banks unwind or sell off the loans that are under regulators’ microscopes, and bankers say they are wary of making new loans.”
“Joseph J. Lebel III, chief lending officer of OceanFirst Bank in Toms River, N.J., has reviewed some of the commercial loans that other banks have put up for sale recently but decided not to buy any because they have weak loan terms and other features that point to aggressive underwriting.”
‘a postcrisis push for loan growth’
Oh dear…
‘weak loan terms and other features that point to aggressive underwriting’
‘Falling oil prices have hurt demand for space just as a flood of offices have become available for lease, putting pressure on vacancy and rental rates, notes Cushman & Wakefield’s Global Chief Economist Kevin Thorpe.’
‘In other words, like the oil glut, there’s also an oil-center office glut.’
‘The situation may not be as bad for more-recent office completions — new, high-end office space is a sought-after commodity — as it is for older, lower-end real estate. Thanks to price declines and ample office availability, companies are likely to opt for better digs for their money, hurting demand for lower-grade real estate.’
‘Houston has a lot of new office space, even following the oil price crash — and there’s more coming.’
‘Both Houston and Calgary kept adding floor space after the oil crash began, near the end of 2014. So far this year, they have added a combined 3.8 million square feet. Perhaps more alarming, Cushman & Wakefield estimates the pipeline of projects due for completion between the second half of 2016 and the end of 2018 is 4.3 million square feet in Calgary and a whopping 9.1 million in Houston. Even if the oil glut begins to clear in the next year or so, that office glut will keep building.’
‘Like Calgary and Houston, Denver also has a lot of new office space arriving on the market: 1.4 million square feet from 2016 to 2018.’
“…like the oil glut…”
Haven’t you heard? There’s no more glut and it’s off to the races on OPEC jawboning and bogus inventory numbers.
It’s pretty hard to hide an oil glut for very long. You can’t just dump the stuff at sea and pretend it never existed.
Rather than hide the oil you just talk about how you’re going to artificially restrict the supply at some unknown juncture in the future, then BAM!!!PRESTO!!! it’s off to the races.
“…talk about how you’re going to artificially restrict the supply at some unknown juncture in the future…”
That’s a good way to create a bubblet, but it also serves to worsen the glut by encouraging more pumping in excess of demand.
Eventually the dam will break again, when some astute MSM observer once again notices the overflowing storage facilities at land and at sea.
The commodities boom was an echo of the construction boom. Either it is over now for a lifetime or it is off to round three. Can the world pull off another credit expansion bigger than the “China Miracle” or is it saturated in debt already?
I’m thinking it’s over for roughly two decades — think 1980 through 2000 for a recent historic example.
So if you plan to live for more than two decades, why not back up the truck and load up on commodities investments over the next few years while they are severely out of favor? Maybe wait until after the next recession announcement to get started, though…
I’ve said for a while, when the history of this thing is written the most important period will be post 2009, when China poured 100 years of concrete in 3, paid for by massive QE, especially in China. That touched off the commodity boom that eventually crushed the BRICs, energy states from Nigeria to Canada, and saw Asian speculators running all over the globe buying air boxes and shacks.
“…and saw Asian speculators running all over the globe buying air boxes and shacks.”
I’m looking forward to the chronicles on the aftermath of this part of the story.
Never forget Stein’s Law: “Anything that cannot go on forever will stop.”
The Financial Times
International Monetary Fund
World debt hits $152tn record, says IMF
Calculation of burden highlights challenge of boosting growth
by: Claire Jones in Washington
Read next: IMF tells European banks to stop blaming low rates for woes
The world is $152tn in the red — a record-breaking level of debt, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The figure, more than two times the size of the global economy, comes from the fund’s latest Fiscal Monitor and is, officials claim, the most accurate measure of the world’s debt burden ever calculated.
“Global debt is at record highs and rising,” said Vitor Gaspar, director of fiscal affairs at the fund.
Levels of borrowing have substantially outpaced global growth in recent years, rising from 200 per cent of gross domestic product in 2002 to 225 per cent last year.
The size of the debt burden highlights the difficulty of boosting the fragile international economy at a time when borrowing, particularly by corporates, has already reached unprecedented levels.
…
“Deficits don’t matter.”
-Dick Cheney
He was right, up to a point: They don’t matter, until they do.
“Deficits don’t matter.”
If you are over 70 yrs old.
The debts/deficits are being created by design. The global elites are creating regional financial problems so large that their solution of a new, global financial system will appear to be the only answer.
Globalists gonna globe . . .
“Globalists gonna globe”
Credit “Apartment 401″ aka “Real Journalists” aka “PressboardBox”, etc. for the term.
Don’t you mean blame, not credit?
Irrelevant
Who is the self-described “king of debt?”
‘We’re late year-six, early year-seven of the recovery,’ said Greg Willett, chief economist at RealPage, a property management company. ‘That’s about time for a recession by historical standards.’
A recession with tens of thousands of units on the way in several cities alone. Now we’ll find out how those luxury rents hold up. (They won’t, it was always a little story these guys told themselves to justify paying way too much for the land).
You know what’s coming? A credit crunch. Remember a few years ago when those credit card applications stopped coming in the mail? Interest rates will go up too, no matter what the central banks do.
‘That’s about time for a recession by historical standards.’
Time to stop whistling while strolling alongside the graveyard?
That really bugs me, this idea that recessions can be prevented. All this guy did was state the obvious; recessions are periodic events of varying magnitude. They are caused by booms, and who can deny we’ve had several concurrent booms: commodities, tech, stock, bonds, all sorts of real estate. A simple recession will destroy these luxury apartment/condo/student housing concepts. Boci ball courts and zen gardens, jeebus. And they already can’t give away some of these luxury mansions.
“…this idea that recessions can be prevented.”
It seems like this misconception only serves to worsen the magnitude of the inevitable eventual recession, as living in denial leads to greater excess during the boom years, followed by more catastrophic wealth destruction during the ensuing bust.
And it gets even worse when you consider that one of the original significant justifications for the creation of the FED was that they would prevent or at least mitigate these boom/bust cycles.
After over 100 years of history, we know how well that has worked.
“Interest rates will go up too, no matter what the central banks do.”
Silver lining: Higher rates will blunt the dire pension liability picture.
We’re already seeing condo towers halted mid-build because they can’t get financing. Recently I posted a quote saying something like, “a loan that made sense 6 months ago might not today.” There’s no interest rate high enough to get lenders to lose money. They can see this oversupply coming. I saw it coming a year and a half ago, just based on internet gum-shoeing. My eyes were opened when I heard this apartment guy on the radio talking about how it was a trees grow to the sky, new paradigm that was never, ever going to end. Literally.
“There’s no interest rate high enough to get lenders to lose money.”
Which makes it really tough to find an interested lender when rates are at historic rock-bottom levels!
“…it was a trees grow to the sky, new paradigm that was never, ever going to end.”
Porcine beauticians will paint lipstick on pigs. That’s what they do.
Speaking of higher rates, what would become of the bond bubble if long-term yields reverted to historic norms?
Why The Massive Bond Bubble May Not Burst
September 29, 2016, 11:14:14 AM EDT
By Trevir Nath
A financial bubble occurs when the price of a security rises beyond its value defined by its fundamentals. The trend typically continues to the point where the long term benefit of ownership no longer outweighs the cost of investing, resulting in a sharp decline. The dot.com and 2008 Financial Crisis both originated by bubbles that grew so large that they eventually popped. Today the biggest bubble isn’t forming in the equities market, but in the bond market.
Just like equities, bonds are frighteningly overvalued. Yields are hovering around historic lows while prices continue to skyrocket. Conventional wisdom has it that this inverse relationship should stop funds from investing in bonds, but that hasn’t been the case. Investors, now more than ever, are parking themselves in government bonds because they are still being viewed as a safe haven.
Around the world government bonds yielding negative returns have reached $11.7 trillion, a $1.3 trillion increase since the end of May, according to Fitch ratings. A large portion of this comes on the back of low rates and asset purchases by the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England. In fact, the Bank of England recently cut rates and restarted quantitative easing to support the economy in the wake of Brexit.
Meanwhile, the Fed has predictably decided to leave interest rates unchanged, presumably until December. Lately the Bank of Japan seems to be the only one making progress to normalization. The central bank recently announced they would start targeting yields on the 10-year government bonds near zero percent, well above the current rate of -0.079. This closes the door, for the time being, on a historic bond market collapse starting in Tokyo, but that doesn’t mean it can’t start elsewhere.
…
Eventually the bond bubble can end one of two ways: it can deflate naturally or it can burst. If interest rates are to increase too quickly, we are more likely to see the bond bubble pop. Prices will decline and yields will increase drastically, causing a massive sell off in interest sensitive securities. Bond holders from this historically low yield period will no longer be incentivized to hold their depreciating assets. Furthermore, sectors that thrived in the low rate environment, such as dividend stocks, REITs, and utilities, will begin to face significant headwinds.
…
Will the Economic Recovery Die of Old Age?
Glenn D. Rudebusch
Is the current recovery more likely to end because it’s lasted so long? Have various imbalances and rigidities accumulated to make the economy frailer and more susceptible to a recessionary shock? Recent history suggests the answer is no. Instead, a long recovery appears no more likely to end than a short one. Like Peter Pan, recoveries appear to never grow old.
Recent economic indicators show that U.S. economic growth has slowed considerably. After adjusting for inflation, aggregate output increased little during the final three months of 2015. Is this the start of a serious stumble by an aging economy with creaky knees? Are we due for a recession? Or is the slowdown just part of the normal ups and downs of a healthy, dynamic economy?
Recessions are notoriously difficult to forecast. However, much conventional wisdom views an aging expansion as increasingly fragile and more likely to end in recession. The associated predictions of recession—proclaiming that “it’s about time” for a downturn—have become more prominent lately because the current recovery, which started six and a half years ago, is relatively long already. For example, Rebecca Jarvis from ABC News asked Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen about this issue at the most recent Federal Open Market Committee press conference (Board of Governors 2015):
Rebecca Jarvis: Historically, most economic expansions fade after this long. How confident are you that our economy won’t slip back into recession in the near term?
Chair Yellen:…I think it’s a myth that expansions die of old age. I do not think that they die of old age. So the fact that this has been quite a long expansion doesn’t lead me to believe that…its days are numbered.
The notion that business expansions are more likely to end as they grow older was especially common before World War II. Gottfried Haberler’s (1937) classic synthesis of prewar business cycle theories devotes an entire section to the topic: “Why the Economic System Becomes Less and Less Capable of Withstanding Deflationary Shocks After an Expansion Has Progressed Beyond a Certain Point.” Nowadays, the underlying rationale for this view follows an analogy to human mortality: As the expansion ages, assorted imbalances and rigidities accumulate that hobble the economy and make it more fragile. Thus, the recovery could be jeopardized by ever smaller shocks, and it becomes more likely over time that the economy will fall into recession.
However, the historical record since World War II does not support the view that the probability of recession increases with the length of the recovery. The earliest statistical investigation of the issue by Diebold and Rudebusch (1990) found that postwar expansions were not more likely to end as they endured. This Economic Letter updates that analysis. The results concur with Yellen’s view that, all else equal, longer expansions are no more likely to end than shorter ones.
http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2016/february/will-economic-recovery-die-of-old-age/
‘does not support the view that the probability of recession increases with the length of the recovery…Yellen’s view that, all else equal, longer expansions are no more likely to end than shorter ones’
The probability is 100%. Long and short, they all end in recession. This is why they make the big bucks.
By allowing more excesses to build up, longer expansions can end up in far worse recessions.
What they used to do was take away the punch bowl to keep things from getting out of hand, limiting the depth of the inevitable recession. I don’t know what they are doing anymore.
Neither do they. Theyre immobilized by fear. They believe they’ll escape responsibility by taking no action.
“They believe they’ll escape responsibility by taking no action.”
Seems like the plan is to kick the can down the road in perpetuity.
You foam the runway once, and after that everybody expects it to be that foamy all the time . . .
Yeah, skydiving into foam with no parachute becomes the new extreme sport that all the cool kids are doing.
Had we been graced sooner with the genius of our current crop of central bankers, we might be in the 80th year of the recovery, or something.
‘I’m not suggesting we’re approaching the saturation point in downtown Detroit’s housing market. But downtown right now is bringing on new housing like sailors first coming ashore.’
The article mentions a condo selling for $300/sq ft. That’s not crazy or anything.
Is that the Detroit suburb of London? They can’t be referring to Detroit, Michigan; the city that can’t keep the street lights on.
Try to keep up, Bob - they created the Detroit Public Lighting Authority a few years ago; they are installing new streetlights as fast as the crackheads can pull the copper wires feeding them.
‘a dramatic reversal that could signal the end of a six-year boom for the U.S. rental market. ‘San Francisco and New York are leading the way in the downturn,’ said Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center of Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California at Berkeley. ‘People are going to be surprised that this is happening but they shouldn’t be. It’s been too far, too fast.’
‘The same downtown areas that drove the boom are now the deepest pockets of weakness. ‘You’re going to see red right in the middle of every market. That’s the one place where supply and demand are out of balance’
Right where they are building the most and the most expensive. And don’t forget Miami Beach is already a disaster. Downtown LA hears whispers of a 15% luxury vacancy with thousands under construction. And it’s in pretty much every market, large and small:
‘Wichita has seen a flurry of apartment development in the past two years, with hundreds of new units’
See these guys have been fanning out to “discover” new markets to tell their rich renter story to lenders. Remember the CRE guy saying “like everyone else on the planet, we’ve been doing every multi-family deal we can get our hands on.” That especially includes refinancing. They have been pulling cash out like crazy. Sound familiar?
‘People are going to be surprised that this is happening but they shouldn’t be. It’s been too far, too fast.’
More than anyone I know of in the REIC, Ken Rosen shoots straight from the hip. His commentary is at the extreme opposite end of the credibility scale from that of the porcine beauticians who populate Wall Street.
Guy probably has tenure and doesn’t need to worry about speaking too much truth.
He’s way beyond tenure. For good measure, he has a sideline consulting business in addition to his academic post. He could retire wealthy today if he didn’t enjoy his work.
I’ve been a long term follower of DTLA (Los Angeles), and imho the Adaptive Use Ordinance fueled the renaissance of the building bubble. I don’t care how much lipstick they use, it’s still DTLA (or any other DT). Go in for an event, and get the hell out.
Tom Gilmore was an early adopter in AUO. Some credit him as the originator for bringing AUO to DTLA. He’s a relocated NY Architect, and is a giraffe.
SF leading the way down in lots of different ways:
http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/disturbing-photos-SoMa-drug-use-homelessness-9624487.php
b-b-but muh utopia maaaaan! Million dollar crack shacks looking like a sweet investment deal - thanks regressive left!
Wichita?
The plane biz left town a decade ago
Wheat is in the tank
‘The search for attractive investment opportunities was the main theme at EisnerAmper’s fourth Private Equity Summit, which took place in New York on September 28. Featuring Equity Group Chairman Sam Zell as keynote speaker, the event attracted its share of drama, with protestors confronting Zell about losing their homes.’
‘Zell, for his part, didn’t mince words either. He noted that he doesn’t see much opportunity in the capital markets today. “Our whole world was built based on the assumption the pie would grow. Nobody has come up with a solution as to where that growth will come from,” Zell replied when asked about his assumptions for the next decade of real estate investment.’
How do you grow your way out of a glut? Makes no sense whatever…
“the pie would grow”
Now it’s more like “Don’t open the refrigerator”.
Heh heh!
Or “These are not the snails you are looking for.”
‘A growing trend in home rentals is leaving some Tampa Bay area tenants with a headache. They say it’s nearly impossible to get big company landlords to fix any problems. “It’s unbelievable. Unbelievable,” said renter Rey Gonzalez.’
‘That’s how he describes what it’s like to deal with his landlord American Homes 4 Rent. He’s had troubles from the day he moved into his Brandon home. “I’m not confident in their response to help, address themselves and fix it,” Gonzalez said.’
‘In three years, he’s dealt with five different property managers. Gonzalez says he is fed up with late fees even when he’s got proof of on-time rent payment, and how hard it is to reach anyone with the company.’
‘Similar concerns are echoed in hundreds of complaints to the Better Business Bureau and on Facebook pages. Some people are even threatening lawsuits against the company.’
‘His biggest frustration is getting the company to come and fix problems with the home. Last year, his circuit breaker melted apart.
“There’s a lot of fear. I have three small children. I was told that panel was overheated and practically caught fire or something. It was a huge concern that i wasn’t getting responded to get it fixed,” Gonzalez said.’
‘His home is new enough, he finally decided to contact the builder and they responded right away. An electrician says the repairs look good, but there are still other issues. An expert found problems with nearly every light switch and outlet. “They really should put the wires around the screw and tighten it up on each device,” said Manny Polizzi with Electric Today.’
‘It’s called back-stabbing an outlet, and it’s a common shortcut in wiring new homes that can cause a lot of headaches. “For the most part it’s just going to be a big inconvenience of losing power, lights flickering. It could cause some damage in the long run that burn out the switches, could arc, and theoretically could catch on fire,” Polizzi said.’
‘In three years, he’s dealt with five different property managers’
Sounds like someone is short on cash.
The place I rented in Tampa in 2011 was in a multiple unit deal. About six months into my lease i was told they sold my unit. Kind of odd that they would split up and sell to whoever would be interested. My new landlord kept the same lease term. I never had any maintenance issue as everything was near new. It was one of the best apartments I ever rented. Utilities were included so I kept the AC going 9 24 hours a day, cool enough so that I had to wear a sweat shirt at my “home.”
I never had a problem with maintenance renting from a large owner. I think that affects only SFHs, not multiple units. Maybe because the tenants would organize and do something the owners would not like?
This Nola.com story duplicates the above. Local housing bubble deflating starting with the downtown rentals. Hollywood South moved to Atlanta and the oil layoffs and the huge number of new high-end units on the market are converging to kick-start the process.
Rents dropping by 50% shows how over-inflated they’ve been.
“‘For one one-bedroom unit, the rent was lowered from $2,800 for a one-bedroom to $1,400 in an attempt to get it leased. “We have an excess amount of inventory out there,” Sepko said.”
And
McGehee said. “I have a mortgage … It wakes you up at night.”
http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2016/10/new_orleans_rental_market.html
For some reason, Drudge thinks this is a responsibility of American taxpayers to pay for:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-tells-saudi-navy-vessels-avoid-iranian-waters-104526927.html
No “smaller government” or “less regulation” or “lower taxes” happening here.
I saw a URL the other day. It was dated in 2009 and the comment section is closed. It was the Irvine Housing Bubble blog. The author’s screen name is Irvine Renter. He showed how the average house price in Irvine from 1990 to 2009 (20 years) appreciated somewhere under 5% per year.
I think the house prices have gotten way out of hand here and I think anytime, they will revert to the mean. And the average price gain will revert to the mean.
Irvine Renter. Great name! Lots of millennials are supposedly moving into this area (from a Yahoo link yesterday) and they are not buying houses.
When the mother of all credit crunches arrives, house price appreciation is likely to be seriously negative for a long time.
And the bailout money the politicians will get the ((tribe)) to print up will get handed out to “save” their ((friends)) banks who in turn will hand a portion back to those same politicians:
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/breaking-guccifer-2-0-releases-clinton-foundation-documents/
or they will set up trusts like Nancy Pelosi did (salary: 193K; net worth: 58 Million) to accept unlimited funds and dodge campaign finance laws (such as hillary directing maxed out donors to give to state dem parties, who in turn funnel the money back to her), all the while whining about campaign finance reform. You cant make this stuff up!
Pelosi has a sweet 16 acre pad in St. Helena (Napa) Land there goes for $1 mil and acre.
on March 18, 2008, the Pelosis bought between $1 million and $5 million (politicians do not have to report the exact amounts, only ranges) worth of Visa stock at the IPO price of $44 per share. Two days later, the stock price rocketed to $65 per share, yielding a 50% profit. The Pelosis then bought Visa twice more. By their third purchase on June 4, 2008, Visa was worth $85 per share.
members of Congress are exempt from insider trading laws
As well as from Obamacare.
Irvine - across from UCI you can buy a 3/2 townhome for $1.1 mill with a $400 a mo HOA and 65% Asian neighbors who want to paint everyone’s door red. And for all this you get to sit in traffic 2 hrs a day on your way to the cubicle. Ahhhh…..
How odd, I bike past UC Irvine every weekend on my way to the beach and I see far more whites than asians.
Asians don’t go to the beach.
Charley don’t surf.
Try South Coast Plaza–they dont exercise, they shop.
That sounds unlikely.
author’s screen name is Irvine Renter
OC Housing News: Irvine Renter’s new blog
OC Housing News
He owns rental properties here in Las Vegas.
Thanks! Hmm…He joined the dark side.
Speaking of old blogs, I wonder what happened to ol’ Casey, he of the “I am facing foreclosure” blog/site.
You can google him and find out . . . needless to say, it’s not exactly a success story.
President George H. W. Bush, Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and Mexican President Carlos Salinas all have what in common?
Bill Clinton didn’t sign the NAFTA. Obama is NOT behind the TPP either
Bill C is right about the ACA, they added millions more customers but not any more supply, of course prices went up. The GOP congress agrees (see Ryan today) but they do nothing to alter it or improve on it. Blue Cross wins again.
The price of health insurance has been increasing rapidly for decades.
Because those with insurance are paying for those without insurance, who also tend to have the most unhealthy and irresponsible lifestyles, i.e. Democrat lifetime entitlement voters.
You must have just made that up. It’s a double dose of the Just World Hypothesis. The poor are the problem because they’re unhealthy. They’re both poor and unhealthy because they’re inherently bad people.
He’s not entirely right though either.
They added some customers while at the same time skewing the risk pool considerably. They made insurance really cheap for people who are likely to have major health problems, and made it really expensive for people who are unlikely to use much healthcare.
And so premiums rose considerably to take into consideration the more expensive customer base.
It’s not about increased demand and no more supply. It’s about increased cost per patient, because fewer low cost patients are participating.
Steelworkers livid over report Trump bought Chinese steel, aluminum
U.S. steelworkers say they are livid after hearing that Donald Trump has used Chinese steel and aluminum for his building projects while campaigning in manufacturing-centric states.
United Steelworker International President Leo Gerard said the union would not only travel to every one of their steel plants across the country to educate members but they would go door-to-door in battleground states to tell voters about the Republican nominee’s business practices.
“How can you say you’re going to rebuild America and stand up for America when you’re in fact doing the very opposite,” Gerard told reporters on a Tuesday call.
Gerard said Trump has a “fundamental disrespect for workers” because he is “saying one thing and doing another.”
There are about 13,000 steel workers and 6,000 in aluminum who have been laid off because of excess supply of those products mostly coming in from China, Gerard said.
“it would be one thing if Donald Trump was in our face bringing in Chinese steel and thinking that the confrontation that they were violating our trade laws,” he said.
“But instead of doing that it’s fundamental dishonesty that he is trying to sneak that in into the country by a number of shell companies coming through the Virgin Islands.”
On Monday, Newsweek released an investigative report concluding that in at least two of Trump’s last three construction projects he purchased steel and aluminum from Chinese manufacturers, including for his Las Vegas hotel, which opened in 2008.
Trump has campaigned heavily in states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania where he has placed blame on Hillary Clinton and her support of trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and China’s entry into the World Trade Organization as the reason why workers have lost their jobs.
Gerard called the Republican candidate’s statements about foreign trade and the need for better job creation in manufacturing “hypocritical” and “fundamentally dishonest.”
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/299293-steelworkers-livid-over-report-trump-bought-chinese-steel-aluminum
Oh look, another “change the subject” article attacking Trump. I only see a few hundred of those a day. The issue is, which candidate will renegotiate trade deals so US companies aren’t forced to compete with countries that belch pollution, have terrible worker safety regulations, sell their product at a loss and have bad human rights records?
but then the costs go way up if you cant buy cheap asian products. does Trump want the costs to go way up? way up?
But do they?
Trump is the champion of worker safety.
“…which candidate will renegotiate trade deals so US companies aren’t forced to compete with countries that belch pollution, have terrible worker safety regulations, sell their product at a loss and have bad human rights records?”
Neither.
‘does Trump want the costs to go way up?’
Ignoring the environmental damage, lack of worker safety laws, low pay, selling at a loss, and that it’s a brutal dictatorship, what good are low costs if you don’t have a job?
This isn’t rocket surgery and I’ve stated it here for years; we used to only trade with countries sorta like ours. Similar pay, regulation, etc. Equal footing. And then we only did it if we got something out of it. Plus by law it was sunsetted, forcing a review every few years to see it was on the up and up.
Did you know China still blocks a lot of outside goods from getting into their markets? This Ford plant moving to Mexico is going to pay something like $12 hour. The WTO and NAFTA are bad deals.
If it is so obvious that NAFTA is bad ( I agree it is) Why hasn’t anyone changed it since Bush1 created it? Why is this time gonna be different?
Why is trickle down gonna work this time?
How can we cut taxes and increase spending and the size of gov…walls, wars, deportations and see the debt cut?
I dont see Trump doing anything at all. He does not like to work or prepare. He will be worse than Bush 2.
You don’t get any more lethargic than the Obama economy.
It’s INVESTMENT. You cut taxes on producers and dead people, you bolster the military so our ships stop getting sunk, our highways stop getting sabotaged, the total debt will increase, yes, but the economy will increase faster, so the debt as a PERCENTAGE of the economy will DECREASE.
It works every time it’s tried.
Why isnt the GOP congress doing that now ? Why did Bush and the GOP see just the opposite, cutting taxes and spending?
Why did it fail in Kansas?
What are all these ships getting sunk?
“He does not like to work or prepare.”
You’d think his fawning admirers would take a clue from his debate (non)performance, wouldn’t you?
“change the subject”
The SNL skit had a great dig on HRC’s ‘change of subject’ to past beauty queens…(link on previous thread).
Trump is the champion of pollution-fighters.
Trump and poster Don! are the champions of BS artistry.
“On Monday, Newsweek released an investigative report concluding that in at least two of Trump’s last three construction projects he purchased steel and aluminum from Chinese manufacturers,”
I’m really surprised Trump is doing the purchasing on these projects. I thought he would have hired someone like the guy he hired to kick Candy Kaine’s @ss last night.
make America great, keep the pollution in china!
It’s pronounced Chi-i-ina!
“Sooner Or Later, The
Free-Wheeling Fun Cools Offwheels fall off”They always do. It just took 20 years before they loosened up. Now fasten your seatbelts.
“The Late Show” streamed the vice presidential debate Tuesday with video of kittens. Host Stephen Colbert bared his own claws in a live monologue afterward.
Colbert sharply referenced anti-gay legislation that the Republican VP pick, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence (R), backed in his state. Critics said the so-called “religious freedom” law allowed businesses to refuse service to gay customers on religious grounds. The 2015-enacted law was revised but LGBT and other advocacy groups said gay people were still not protected from discrimination in the state.
So Colbert pointed out a debate clip of Pence saying, “I try and spend a little time on my knees everyday.”
The comedian milked the audience for a bit, then said, “Apparently Mike Pence is also very close with Vladimir Putin. Now fair warning, Mike, Indiana businesses can now refuse to serve you.”
Earlier in his bit, Colbert launched another zinger about the law. “As Jesus himself said, ‘Get out of my pizza parlor, you queers,’” he quipped.
Why Canada why not move to Venezuela when Trump is the prezident?
Anywhere. Just go. Good riddance.
The world is $152 trillion in debt, yet the Fed and central banks continue their deranged QE-to-Infinity and ZIRP/NIRP. When will the system come crashing down under the weight of its own fraud and ficticious valuations?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/05/global-debt-hits-all-time-high-of-152-trillion-as-imf-warns-of-w/
It’s not possible for the world to be in debt.
It’s the dream land gift of central banking Mike. The money was loaned into existence.
From http://www.endthefed.org:
The Federal Reserve, “the Fed”, is the central bank of the United States of America that was created in 1913 by Congress. It is a banking cartel that has a government-granted monopoly on the creation of money and credit. The Fed literally loans “money” (Federal Reserve Notes) into existence. Federal Reserve Notes are paper promises backed by nothing of intrinsic value and they are only functioning as money because the government forces them on the public through legal tender laws. Federal Reserve Notes are referred to as dollars but are not. The definition of a dollar is a weight of silver (371 grains). To put it simply, the Fed is a group of banks running a national counterfeiting operation with the protection of the government.
Of course it is. Debt is borrowing against future income. Why can’t there be net borrowing against future income?
I meant the world as a whole. In order for the planet to be in debt, it would have to borrow from the moon or some other planet.
You seem unable to distinguish between debt and insolvency.
You can definitely have net debt (merely claims against future income, as PB states) planet-wide; what you can’t have is planetary insolvency, as every debt is someone else’s asset, so the balance sheet is zero. For planetary insolvency, we would have to be indebted to someone off-planet.
Long-absent “reduced” signs starting to appear in Vancouver.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/10/05/hot-money-on-the-move-vancouvers-cold-shoulder-sends-real-estate-investors-into-torontos-open-arms/
More fundamental transformation in Brussels. How’s that multiculturalism working out for ya, Europe?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/05/belgian-police-officers-stabbed-suspected-terror-attack-brussels-schaerbeek-neighbourhood
Don in Reno! Go, man, go!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qc7oMALZV7c&feature=youtu.be
Geez, what a crowd, very spirited.
Whoa, he just went there. In terms of corruption, America’s like a third world country! He really said that.
A sneak peak at Hillary Clinton who is once again off the campaign trail for debate prep.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s09gMX7JNfU - 159k -
LOL! Is she taking “the treatment”? Like the rest of the deviant elites.
BTW, I take it you’re going to “shelter in place”. My thoughts are with ya, here’s hoping you and yours get through the storm OK. I’ll be expecting a full report on the aftermath, though.
The Donald live in Henderson, NV earlier today:
https://www.c-span.org/video/?416448-1/donald-trump-campaigns-henderson-nevada
He’s talking about trade, manufacturing, and jobs.
Please please please (hat tip to James Brown) keep speaking about this.
The entire island of Manhattan could be destroyed by a hurricane and west Los Angeles could have an earthquake and sink into the ocean, and it would be no net loss to this country. These parasites add nothing, they build nothing.
The man is on fire, again.
Coastal elitist out of touch f*cks need to choke on their own vomit and die.
Never gotten their hands dirty after a day of work in their life, never had a sore back from actually working a day in their life.
Got rope and a lamppost? LOLZ
Hillaryous is unelectable.
She needs to have a stroke, live, on stage, on national television.
She is so sick and weak and useless, this evil woman belongs in a coffin, like 5 minutes ago.
Got President Kaine? LOLZ
She is a manifestation of the ignorance and fecklessness of the ‘Murican electorate. And as nightmarish as it seems, she will be our next president. Forward, Soviet!
Hint for Trump: Sometimes a little bit of prepping goes a long way!
OCT 5, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Trump’s Doing Worse Than Romney Did Among White Voters
By Harry Enten
Filed under 2016 Election
Donald Trump’s strategy in this campaign has been fairly clear from the beginning: Drive up Republican support among white voters in order to compensate for the GOP’s shrinking share among the growing nonwhite portion of the electorate. And Trump has succeeded in overperforming among a certain slice of white voters, those without a college degree. But overall, the strategy isn’t working. Trump has a smaller lead among white voters than Mitt Romney did in 2012, and Trump’s margin seems to be falling from where it was when the general election began.
Four years ago, Romney beat President Obama among white voters by 17 percentage points, according to pre-election polls. That was the largest winning margin among white voters for any losing presidential candidate since at least 1948. Of course, even if Trump did just as well as Romney did, it would help him less, given that the 2016 electorate will probably be more diverse that 2012’s. And to win — even if the electorate remained as white as it was four years ago — Trump would need a margin of 22 percentage points or more among white voters.
But Trump isn’t even doing as well as Romney. Trump is winning white voters by just 13 percentage points, according to an average of the last five live-interviewer national surveys.1 He doesn’t reach the magic 22 percentage point margin in a single one of these polls.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-doing-worse-than-romney-did-among-white-voters/
In 2008 and 2012, 95% of the electorate were docile and stupid sheep who bent over for the crony capitalist establishment status quo with their votes for Obama, McCain, and Romney. Now some of those stoopids have seen the light after being relentlessly screwed over by TPTB. So how many people have become awake and aware? That is the pivotal question the election outcome hinges on.
MM is a paid employee of the Southern Poverty Law Center.
There’s no reason to insult him personally, he’s a paid worker doing a job (and doing it well). He’s here for a paycheck. At least he’s working.
A housing article:
“In the U.S, there was a 6 percent increase in the proportion of youth living with their parents from 2007 to 2014, significantly higher than the OECD average. Today, about 67 percent of 15- to 29 year-olds in the U.S. live with their parents as opposed to on their own or with a roommate, compared to around 63 percent before the crisis, according to Stéphane Carcillo, the senior economist who oversaw the report.”
http://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2016-10-05/countries-where-the-most-young-adults-live-with-their-parents
No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes happening here, LOLZ
“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush
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