Once It Starts Going Downhill, It Starts Going Fast
A report from Real Estate Weekly. “Lifestyle changes from Millennials, Baby Boomers and a favorable financing environment contributed to resilient multifamily capitalization rates in the U.S. over the first half of 2016, according to the latest research from CBRE Group, Inc. ‘Given investor caution after long periods of sustained price appreciation, we had expected to see more increases in cap rates; however, the decline in government bond yields has kept the spread of cap rates above the risk-free rate favorable, which has helped to support current price levels,’ said Spencer Levy, Americas Head of Research, CBRE.”
“‘There are significant demographic and lifestyle changes from Millennials and Baby Boomers that have a long-way to run relative to increasing demand for apartments,’ said Chris Akins, Senior Managing Director, Multifamily, Capital Markets, CBRE. ‘This, combined with favorable and plentiful financing available from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is making multifamily an attractive long-term prospect as reflected in the cap rates. Foreign capital is also becoming more comfortable with the asset class. We have not seen significant over-supply, although we are starting to see moderated rent growth as a result of new supply in some markets.’”
From Reuters Media. “Even with a good salary as a data scientist at a San Francisco technology firm, Yang Guo, 30, knew he couldn’t afford a home in the Bay Area, among the priciest U.S. markets. He still wanted to own property in addition to stocks, however, and soon found a way to buy cheap rental houses in faraway cities - and to outsource the associated hassles to HomeUnion, a three-year-old startup in Irvine, California.”
“The companies are pulling in money from clients in costly coastal markets that is boosting demand and home prices in the lower-cost cities they target. ‘In the last 12 months, I’ve seen more cash buyers from California than I’ve ever seen in my career, and I’ve been doing this for 25 years,’ said Anne Callahan, a real estate agent in Cleveland, Ohio, where the average rent for a single-family home is up 4.2 percent over the last year, according to Zillow Research.”
“Guo, the San Francisco investor, had no experience as a landlord and is already realizing that it is not as simple as he imagined. His property near Birmingham — in a metro area whose 14.4 percent vacancy doubles the 6.9 percent average nationwide - sat empty for a few months before he landed a tenant. The high cost of property insurance, meanwhile, is making him wary of buying in areas susceptible to hurricanes and other natural disasters.”
“There are signs, too, that the rental industry is cooling off. After the housing crash, hedge funds raced into beaten down markets including Las Vegas and Los Angeles, buying up large blocs of single family homes to rent out. But some institutional investors are now eyeing an exit strategy. Blackstone Group’s Invitation Homes announced in July that it expects to sell about 5 percent of its about 50,000 homes to current renters.”
From Marketplace. “The median price for an existing home in the United States right now is around $240,000 and rising. But there are some markets, like Detroit, where it’s still far below that — in the city of Detroit the median value is below $40,000. The prospect of buying low and selling it at a decent profit or renting it to tenants has drawn a lot of international investors to Detroit. But that can create problems.”
“‘There are a lot of people competing for these houses,’ said Rob Funk, a realtor who says his business is hot right now. On a way to a house on Detroit’s east side, which he’d shown earlier in the day to a German investor, he said he sees more and more people from overseas: the U.K., China, Indonesia. The one he showed to the German guy is two stories, solid brick, with a lot of detail work inside. But like a lot of homes that have sat vacant for years in the city, it’s missing a furnace, and needs a new roof — the repairs could add up to tens of thousands of dollars. On the other hand, he’s marketing the house at for just $9,900.”
“A buyer might fix it up and flip it, but local investors also buy up homes in foreclosure auctions and resell them to overseas investors as rental properties. Websites advertise a return on investment of up to 20 percent. ‘That seems like a very attractive return when government bonds give you 1.5 percent,’ said Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a professor of real estate finance at New York University’s Stern School.”
“Still, it’s no secret that this is all speculation on the likelihood that home prices will continue to rise in the city. Also, cash buyers from out of town who are speculating can push up prices somewhat arbitrarily, making otherwise very low-value homes out of reach for locals. ‘People are essentially gambling for the resurrection of Detroit,’ Van Nieuwerburgh said.”
“It also means growing numbers of landlords in Detroit are the very definition of absentee. Taneka Sanford is on the other side of that situation— she rents a three-bedroom in the city for $750 a month for her two kids and herself. During a walk through of the house, she pointed to a back hall and basement with visibly waterlogged ceilings and walls. Parts of the house smelled like mold even though she’d cleaned after a long rain. There was a hole in the roof of the garage, and a dangerous pit several feet wide and deep in the backyard that makes it unsafe for kids to play.”
“‘When it rains it pours,’ she said — meaning literally, it pours inside the house. She said she’s been asking the managers to fix these and several other problems since she moved in last November. The owners are in Taiwan. After she withheld rent and demanded the repairs, the local management company took her to court — but a judge dismissed the case in September when the management company failed to appear in court with full documentation showing it has the authority to represent the Taiwanese owners.”
“Last year the owners agreed to cut $50 from her monthly rent, but doing more might cut too deep into their returns. It’s also not clear that the Taiwanese owners know about all the problems, or what their cut is of the rent payments. In some cases in Detroit, local intermediaries have been caught scamming overseas buyers, who saw pictures that didn’t represent the homes accurately.”
The New Orleans Advocate in Louisiana. “A year ago, the three-bedroom condo in the Cotton Mill building might not have been empty for even a day in between tenants — likely movie industry professionals who wouldn’t have blanched at renting it out for $5,500 or more a month. The Warehouse District complex was in high demand. But with film work drying up after the Legislature trimmed back the state’s tax credit program; with the oil and gas industry, another major employer, laying off workers; and with a surge in new Central Business District apartments, the Cotton Mill condo languished on the market for two months this summer before it finally found a tenant for $1,000 less than normal.”
“Although the unit still went for several times what a typical renter would pay in New Orleans, the difficulty in filling it may be a sign that the city’s scorching-hot rental market is beginning to soften, according to analysts and landlords. ‘If the higher-end market can’t stay afloat, the lower-end market can’t either,’ said Karen Sepko, who manages several Cotton Mill condos and other units in the Warehouse District. ‘If the higher-end market is discounting, the lower-end market is too.’”
“At the same time, rental rates appear to be continuing to climb at the lower end of the market, leaving many tenants paying more than they can afford in rent even as many landlords are having trouble making a profit. But there does appear to be a glut of apartments, many brand-new, on the market.”
“‘There are high-end properties that are sitting vacant that people can’t get into because they simply can’t afford it. There are middle-of-the-road properties that people can’t get into because of things like insurance and property taxes,’ said Andreanecia Morris, executive director of HousingNOLA. ‘Then there are people who are living in their houses or renting and are cost-burdened. The boom we’ve seen, given the economics, is not sustainable. Given the wages of most of our citizens, housing prices continually going up is not something that New Orleans could sustain.’”
“Sepko, the Cotton Mill condos manager, has a more dire view of the situation than some of the others watching the market. While the properties she manages go for hefty sums, she said that when all the costs are added up — including the mortgage, insurance, property taxes and condo fees — many of the condo owners she represents are barely breaking even or are taking a loss on their properties. If prices continue to decline, she said, that could mean foreclosures will ripple through the market.”
“‘It takes a little while to get the snowball going, but once it starts going downhill, it starts going fast,’ Sepko said.”
‘leaving many tenants paying more than they can afford in rent even as many landlords are having trouble making a profit’
A crazy situation, no? What could have brought about such a thing?
‘Given investor caution after long periods of sustained price appreciation, we had expected to see more increases in cap rates; however, the decline in government bond yields has kept the spread of cap rates above the risk-free rate favorable, which has helped to support current price levels…favorable and plentiful financing available from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is making multifamily an attractive long-term prospect as reflected in the cap rates’
It’s gonna be a disaster IMO.
she said that when all the costs are added up ??
And the costs are going up further in California…The early though was it would be a point of sale requirement…Nope…Starting in January, its state law mandatory…Unenforceable maybe but state law non-the-less
Low flow fixtures now required…As a landlord, you will be required to put in low flow fixtures in your rentals…The rental agreements will state that you have..
My brother plumber & pipe fitter were discussing this at length…You might say, whats the big deal…Costs of the fixtures plus a few hours for a plumber…Not so…If it is old plumbing it may be impossible to remove the faucet and replace…You may need to go all the way into the wall to properly replace the fixture..
What about dry rot in the floor after you remove the old toilet ?? Does the plumber attempt to bolt a new toilet into a floor that won’t support it ??
Our genius busy at work in Sacramento…
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=10&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi88o-Nks7PAhVP8WMKHcINCtAQFghaMAk&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.larsonmontgomeryteam.com%2F2016%2F09%2F13%2Flow-flow-toilets-to-become-law-2017%2F&usg=AFQjCNG8SECdjK-sXwTSPYsSLhKDh3Icpg
still very easy on old props (ps. Turn off the water)
lol
CA is out of water, this is a must and no big deal. If you have rot, you cant ignore it. Cost of owning… same as before.
Lake Cachuma is at 9% full. That is crazy!
Our genius busy at work in Sacramento…
The sheeple of California voted for Nanny State Comrades of Proven Worth to intrude into every aspects of their lives, not coincidentally demanding new restrictions that always happen to benefit DNC donors and benefactors in some way.
Funny how all these excuses for rip off pricing on housing never seems to accumulate to a level remotely close to asking prices.
‘The late August confrontation outside the 60-unit Marmion Royal apartments in Highland Park marked a flashpoint in L.A.’s slow-burning drama over income inequality, cultural identity, housing affordability and neighborhood preservation. With its rents and real estate prices rising dramatically in recent years, Highland Park has become the latest front in the wave of gentrification that has swept nearby communities such as Echo Park and Atwater Village, uprooting working-class Latinos from neighborhoods they have called home for decades.’
“Highland Park is now ground zero, not only in L.A., but in the whole country,” said Peter Dreier, professor of urban and environmental policy at Occidental College in Eagle Rock. “Hedge funds and private equity firms are gobbling up properties all over the country,” he said. “They buy buildings for speculation. There’s enormous pressure on landlords to get rid of tenants.”
‘In the first half of this year, 20 multi-family buildings changed hands in Highland Park, five more than the same period last year, according to the real estate data firm CoStar.’
‘Skya Ventures, a Tarzana investment company, bought the complex in May from Azusa Pacific University. The university had acquired the property as a donation and remained a distant landlord, allowing rents and maintenance to lag. The boxy, two-building complex was no beauty on the outside. But at $14.3 million — and free of city rent controls — it was full of potential.’
‘Skya planned to upgrade the apartments and bump up the rents 50%, said the firm’s management agent, Chris Gray…Out front, a smartly dressed woman walked the sidewalk with a cellphone to her ear. She was Galena Skya-Wasserman, founder and owner of Skya Ventures.’
‘As the crew began unrolling high-pressure hoses, Skya-Wasserman aimed the cellphone at an anti-Skya sign the tenants had hung above the courtyard entrance. Two young women on the stairs gave her looks. “Take my picture,” one said, striking a modeling pose. “You can give me the middle finger,” Skya-Wasserman said. “That’s OK.”
Heck of a job Mel.
Used apartment buildings, worth more empty than occupied.
or businesses/land worth more dead than alive…….
I was listening to “real estate today”, a weekly (?) program on ((bloomberg)) radio. Its wall to wall NAR spokeholes, including one VP for the western region based out of Colorado. Said high end houses and ranches had little to no activity, but the low end (350-500!) was still going like hotcakes. More topping confirmed.
They also reported the ((obama administration)) was “concerned” that people who cant read or write english were not able to get mortgages and were pushing to change that. I’m sure after this all blows up and the US is in an even deeper depression (for the middle and lower classes) the retarded cucks responsible for voting in these vultures will still be finding ways to blame bush. How dumb can you be? Evil is to the regressive left elites as stupid is to its voters. And dont confuse the regressive left with classical liberalism, theres still a decent amount of them out there - talk show hosts like Dave Rubin and others, including lots of the alt right apparently. This country is getting so weird as it descends into out of control corruption, its amazing - hollywood trashing trump for his words - hollywood! Its like we’re in a parallel universe - might as well call it idiocracy.
Two young women on the stairs gave her looks. “Take my picture,” one said, striking a modeling pose. “You can give me the middle finger,” Skya-Wasserman said. “That’s OK.”
Two two young women on the stairs doubtlessly lacked the intelligence to make the connection between their votes for the Oligopoly status quo, aka hope n’ change, and the fact that they’re about to be evicted so landlords can gouge the next batch of tenants more deeply.
Who says they bothered to vote? And being that this is in LA, there’s a good chance they aren’t even citizens.
In fairness RKH, you don’t know who they’re going to vote for.
http://la.curbed.com/2016/10/9/13220212/highland-park-renters-eviction-gentrification-rental-strike
The subway station nearby is the origin of this rent hijacking. The Goldline is above ground and is different than the underground ride in both demographics and experience. We use both in Los Angeles.
‘How high can it go? That’s the question of the day in Downtown Los Angeles. Rents have been on the rise in DTLA’s office market, but with a hefty vacancy rate relative to other submarkets, and new development rising, some analysts say rents won’t get higher.’
“Rents will probably even out now,” Petra Durnin, CBRE’s director of research, told The Real Deal. “In Downtown Los Angeles, they’ve hit the ceiling.”
‘Vacancy, meanwhile, remained relatively high Downtown, at 16.8 percent, compared with the Greater L.A. average of 14.3 percent. It barely dropped from the 16.9 percent average last quarter, according to CBRE data.’
‘Durnin said that DTLA’s vacancy rate has always been higher than most other submarkets, because of its size and the tenant downsizing that took place in the aftermath of the recession. The submarket’s equilibrium, she said, is about 16 percent vacancy.’
‘The vacancy rate is even higher in Downtown’s Central Business District. When Bunker Hill and the Financial District are calculated separately from the rest of Downtown Los Angeles, as they were in Cushman & Wakefield’s third quarter report, they have the highest vacancy rate out of any submarket, at 19.2 percent.’
‘Meanwhile, in Greater Los Angeles, leasing activity saw a 17 percent drop in the third quarter when compared to the average of the past 15 months — 2.79 million square feet, compared to 3.4 million square feet, according to the Cushman report.’
Oh, gawd, I just want it to stop.
‘Rents will probably even out now’
Sure, that’s how it always works. Boom, even out, boom again. Wait until Petra finds out they’ve overbuilt the luxury apartment/condo market downtown and there won’t be people to use this office space. And that’s not even considering the coming recession.
“And that’s not even considering the coming recession.”
I believe the country is less psychologically prepared for the next recession than for any previous recession in history.
I’ll only say this once because people get so worked up. Why did Mel go on a trillion apartment spree?
‘favorable and plentiful financing available from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is making multifamily an attractive long-term prospect as reflected in the cap rates’
To juice the economy. All this buying, rehabbing and flipping creates churn, commissions. Look at how angry everyone is. Do you think that’s just going to dissipate after the election? A lot of this is tied to the housing bubble. It shook people up. They’re mad about the bailouts. Well Mel is gonna need a lot more when this thing blows up.
I thought it was popping at the end of 2014. That’s when FHA opened up the spigots. Then Mel said “pedal to the metal.” With flipping shows on the TV 24/7, I guess people bought in. Around that time someone here asked me if I thought it was going to be worse than before. I said I could see it both ways. Now it’s almost 2 years more bubbly and I do think it’s going to be worse. If people are angry now, imagine what another RE bust will create? I’ll repeat; it was largely a commercial RE bust that took down the oil states banks and S&L’s. Houses went down with the economy. We didn’t have half million dollar houses everywhere back then. And if this thing rolls through the pension funds and life insurance companies like it could?
That statement the other day about quantitative failure is shocking. If it’s true, we just spent 10 years and many trillions of Yellen bucks and we got nothing to show for it but debt, overpriced shacks and a whole lot of pissed off people.
To juice the economy. All this buying, rehabbing and flipping creates churn, commissions.
It also generates work and income for contractors who buy overpriced trucks and stuff. Until the wheels come off the bus, then the used car lots will be packed with low mileage pick ups.
“quantitative failure is shocking. If it’s true, we just spent 10 years and many trillions of Yellen bucks and we got nothing to show for it but debt, overpriced shacks and a whole lot of pissed off people.”
You already know. You’re just being nice about it.
‘In the last 12 months, I’ve seen more cash buyers from California than I’ve ever seen in my career, and I’ve been doing this for 25 years,’
The scourge of California equity locusts is back!
Sell to China and leave your state for cheaper COL.
California cash out refis have taken off again. You guys are going to end up like the people in Vancouver, calling up UHS and begging them to find some Chinese dude to buy your shack.
Hope so… add no water to the equation. They are mining for water in the valley going 1200′ in some cases.
So Cal will still plant green lawns and build swimming pools. They need to learn from Santa Fe, NM or Baja who to survive.
At least this answers my questions about who those investors are who were buying housing in Cleveland and Detroit and other worn-out cities: foreigners who want “property.” Those houses are going to fall down before they appreciate. Even the little quarter acre lot isn’t worth enough to homestead on.
“‘There are a lot of people competing for these houses,’ said Rob Funk, a realtor who says his business is hot right now.”
https://www.trulia.com/profile/rob-funk-agent-detroit-mi-zgkwhwhg/
According to Zillow, no listings and no sales the last year. I almost feel sorry for Detroit realtors, but of course if it was a hot market they would NOT feel sorry for us.
“It takes a little while to get the snowball going, but once it starts going downhill, it starts going fast”
This will be the narrative for Clinton’s polling numbers once America discovers Bill’s past in tonight’s debate.
That Bill Clinton is a pedophile and a rapist?
And Hillary defended him and enabled him?
But Trump said some R rated things about women in private 10 years ago…
After busted stealing 2 million in food stamps Muslim migrants response is fck America
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmHIDjV2JWo
If Hillary gets elected, expect this x1000.
“some R rated things…”
I note that it is not taboo now to write these words in bold print in the news, for audiences of all ages. And yet the high horse is maintained.
Funny thing is media puts more vulgar thing than this in TV and suddenly discovers and outrage that people actually talk like that.
phony outrage
I believe there are more trump tapes out there. Every time a Wikileak is released or Hillary is in defensive, they will release it drip by drip. But I doubt it will have any effect. The boy who cried wolf syndrome and such.
Someone should ask Ivanka Trump what she thinks of her father.
Why is DT our next president? Nobody wants to give that filthy bastard another license to molest underage girls again.
“…said some R rated things about women…”
You can’t spin this stuff away so easily.
The Violence of Donald Trump
Trump’s leaked remarks about grabbing women are consistent with his history of alleged and admitted physical assaults
In a leaked tape from 2005, Donald Trump described kissing and grabbing women without their consent.
PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP/Getty
By Bridgette Dunlap
1 day ago
More News
- Trump’s Terrifying Relationship With the Law
- Ex-Trump Employee Speaks Out on His Treatment of Women
- What the Trump, Cosby Allegations Reveal About Rape Culture
Donald Trump’s comments and behavior, captured in a 2005 hot-mic recording released by the Washington Post Friday, are horrifying – but they cannot possibly be surprising to anyone who’s been paying attention to this election. On the tape, Trump bragged that he kisses women without permission and he can “grab them by the pussy” because he’s a star. It’s been widely noted that these statements fit a decades-long pattern of Trump making hateful and demeaning comments about women. But they are also entirely consistent with his lesser-discussed history of alleged and admitted physical assaults – particularly his alleged rape of his first wife.
Some legal basics before we proceed: It is generally illegal to touch someone who doesn’t want to be touched. Battery is a tort – a violation of civil law for which the victim can sue – that entails a “harmful or offensive contact with the person of another.” It doesn’t require a physical injury, just an offensive touching. As one court explained, “the slightest unlawful touching of the person of another is sufficient, for the law cannot draw the line between different degrees of violence and therefore totally prohibits the first and lowest stage, since every individual’s person is sacred and no other has the right to touch it.” Criminal laws also prohibit a range of unconsented touchings, which have different names such as “battery,” “assault” and “rape.”
…
Perfect! Trump is an alleged rapist…just like Hillary’s husband and just like Bill he would make a great president for some people. LOL
Amerikkka, what a fukushima!
The choice this election season is not pretty.
“The choice this election season is not pretty.”
Yep… years of AIPAC meddling in U.S. politics.
Had the media shown an ounce of sympathy when women were accusing Bill Clinton of raping and groping, these things about Trump would have hold some water. Too late lamestream media, you lost the plot long ago.
When I was single I grabbed all I could.
“That Bill Clinton is a pedophile and a rapist?”
Our founding fathers did more than sample the brown sugar.
That would be a mistake on Trump’s part. If he’s smart he would use the “p****gate” questions to turn the table around to Hillary and the Media….”What’s more important? Things I said in private or Wikileaks information on Hillary during her time in office?”
Do you know there was a President who had to resign over erasing some tapes? His name was Nixon…
The problem is that there is a possibility Trump is complicit in getting Hillary elected
https://mobile.twitter.com/wikileaks/status/784908158426869761
I put that out there over a year ago, and was roundly mocked for suggesting it.
Well, lemme mock the idea a year later. The idea is beyond absurd. With all that has transpired, what on earth does Trump get out of helping Hillary get elected? What possible benefit? What’s she doing to do to reward him for all the BS he’s been through, give him the state of Florida?
Rumor has it, and I don’t know if it is true, that he was offered some ungodly sum, I think it was $150 million, to drop out of the race a while back. He didn’t take it.
He’s invested tens of millions of dollars of his own money, taken unimaginable slings and darts from media, politicians (even his own party) and financial interests, risked assassination, put his family at risk, suffered business reversals, kept up a grueling schedule of rallies, meetings and appearances since he declared his candidacy, had his private life examined like a constant anal probe, had people hammering and yammering at him 24/7 telling him what to do and how to act, lost friends, gained enemies. I mean, you name it, he’s had to confront it one way or another.
You tell me, how on earth could Hillary or TPTB possibly compensate him for all of that?
TPTB compensates handsomely industry of “journalists” to speculate on nonsense like this. Idiots run with them as “nooos.”
“Well, lemme mock the idea a year later. The idea is beyond absurd.”
And yet, somehow completely consistent with current developments in the campaign.
“And yet, somehow completely consistent with current developments in the campaign.”
Only in the fever dreams of a paranoid schizophrenic.
“Only in the fever dreams of a paranoid schizophrenic.”
Ad hominem attacks aren’t going to resurrect the failing campaign of your Dear Leader.
The problem is it upsets the narrative of the Hillary versus Trump worshippers - as in “that they are really campaigning against each other.”
They are both campaigning for Hillary.
“They are both campaigning for Hillary.”
Don’t expect Dear Leader’s admirers on this board to recognize the obvious.
Neither one of you can answer the question: What’s in it for him that could possibly make all of what he has been through worthwhile?
Since his business model is basically to slap the TRUMP label on whatever he sells, the campaign should presumably make his brand more valuable, unless graphic talk of grabbing women by the p___y somehow ends up having a negative effect on the TRUMP brand.
A possible big payoff by the banker pals of Hillary. Rothchchilds and Rockefeller banker pals, that is.
a Yuge payoff.
The real question - is Hillary is complicit in getting Trump elected? 100k sounds too cheap for Clintons.
Why did they even let her steal the election from Bernie? Do you know the answer?
The majority of ‘Muricans simply don’t care about things like public or private morality.
Trump probably has 10 frivolous lawsuits a month from women claiming sexual harassment, and I’ll bet NONE of those women alleged that he grabbed them ‘there.” Because he didn’t do it,he doesn’t do it, he just brags like guys do when they’re trying to impress other guys.
“…he just brags like guys do when they’re trying to impress other guys…”
I never bragged about grabbing women by the p___y, and nobody I know ever did so, either. A kid who lived a couple of houses up from me when I was in junior high school often bragged about his naked exploits with his girlfriend, but he never once suggested that coercion was involved. That’s just plain sick, and you should be ashamed of yourself for serving up apologies for such behavior.
Politics
NPR Battleground Map: Trump In Crisis
October 9, 2016
3:38 PM ET
Domenico Montanaro
Ahead of the second presidential debate Sunday night, the secret Donald Trump audio tape of him bragging about groping and kissing women — and let’s be clear, if he did what he’s bragging that he did, it would be assault — has shaken the presidential race and is reshaping the presidential map.
…
Both of the Clinton’s are war criminals with the blood of hundreds of thousands on their hands. By every indication from expected neocon cabinet picks, her mass slaughter will continue if elected. Did NPR mention that?
What makes you believe Trump won’t soon be a “war criminal” if elected president?
What makes you believe Trump won’t soon be a “war criminal” if elected president?
Doesn’t have a history of actually doing so?
“Doesn’t have a history of actually doing so?”
Lack of opportunity = no history
‘Lack of opportunity = no history’
You guys are really reduced to the logic of children. I don’t see how you waste day after day on this foolishness.
Call me a child if you please. I realize my posts here are a waste of time, as everybody’s mind is already made up, no matter what new developments come to light.
everybody’s mind is already made up
So is yours. Don’t be such a tease.
“So is yours.”
Not at all. I have no dog in the fight.
Just trying to make sure that the Trump lovers here have a fair chance to reconsider their opinions before it’s too late.
‘have a fair chance to reconsider their opinions before it’s too late’
Like putting a couple that have the blood of around a million dead innocents on their hands in the White House?
It’s a Hobson’s choice.
I’ve read this blog for almost 8 years and this is the first time I’ve posted. Can we stick to the topic of housing…it gets really old reading all the political crap. If I want to read that I’ll go to Reddit…I’m here for housing bubble information.
If u have been reading here for 8 years, I’d like to hear your opinion on the housing cheerleading posted here daily.
“It’s not just about vulgarity. It’s about an attitude toward power and what it entitles you to do to others without their consent.”
“an attitude toward power”
The irony is that without this attitude, nobody would seek high office. That is why we need officers of the government to be restrained by the rule of law. The founding fathers understood this well. Their wisdom has not turned to stupidity by the passage of 240 years. JMO.
“The irony is that without this attitude, nobody would seek high office.”
Yes, but not everybody who seeks high office has a track record as a sexual abuser.
What’s a sexual abuser?
What a fraud this election is. People who used to be outraged by politicians’ sexual abuse are protecting a “sexual abuser” AND people who had no problems with this sort of things in the past, have suddenly found jesus.
Amerikka, what a fukushima!
“What’s a sexual abuser?”
The situation is shaping up much like the recent sad saga of a defunct Democratic San Diego politician.
However, there is a much bigger message in the release of the Trump sex tapes, regarding the perceived privilege of wealth:
“I’m a billionaire; thus I am above the law.”
Thousands of women share their sexual abuse stories in response to Donald Trump
Tanveer Mann for Metro.co.uk
Sunday 9 Oct 2016 1:12 pm
- Thousands of women are sharing their sexual abuse stories in response to Donald Trump’s ‘by the p***y’ comments.
- ‘Grab them by the p***y t-shirts’ already for sale after Donald Trump’s degrading comments
ICYMI, the republican presidential candidate sparked outrage on Friday after a 2005 video of him was released in which he made a series of crude remarks about women.
In the video, released by The Washington Post and NBC News, Mr Trump says: ‘When you’re a star they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the p***y. You can do anything.’
In response, Canadian writer Kelly Oxford called on women to tweet about their sexual abuse stories, after sharing the first time she was assaulted on a bus at 12 years old.
…
Phony fooking outrage!
Let’s treat sexual abuse as what it is regardless who commits it. As long as thousands of women keep silent on Bill Clinton, IT is nothing more than contrived phony outrage.
“It’s not just about vulgarity. It’s about an attitude toward power and what it entitles you to do to others without their consent.”
The irony is that without this attitude, nobody would seek high office
Bingo. what http://www.voluntaryism.com is saying.
that is…http://voluntaryist.com/
“…once it starts going downhill, it starts going fast”
Avalanche!
The sad irony of what could propel the first woman into the White House
By Maeve Reston, CNN
Updated 6:10 PM ET, Sun October 9, 2016
Donald Trump’s campaign chaos
St. Louis (CNN)
Here’s the great irony of the 2016 campaign: Rather than a historic debate about whether a female nominee can best her male rival, the race is suddenly a referendum on how much crass, coarse objectification of women America is willing to take.
When Hillary Clinton clinched the Democratic nomination, it was hailed as a barrier-breaking moment for women. Young and old supporters watched her acceptance speech in Philadelphia with tears streaming down their cheeks, describing themselves as witnesses to history.
But the sweeping stagecraft of the #ImWithHer convention now seems like a quaint memory. With the emergence of the 2005 “Access Hollywood” tape featuring Donald Trump bantering about unwanted advances and actions that would constitute sexual assault, the 2016 conversation about women moved straight into the gutter.
“One of the most disturbing things about this election is just the unbelievable rhetoric coming from the top of the Republican ticket,” President Barack Obama said Sunday, noting he wouldn’t repeat the language because “there are children in the room.”
…
If the economy was good we wouldn’t need to borrow so much.
If people would cut back on consumption of crap products that no one needs…that would help but everyone needs to produce widgets so people can buy widgets to store widgets in ever expanding houses so everyone can have money ….for more widgets.
cut $50 from her monthly rent, but doing more might cut too deep into their returns
“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush
Is Cheyenne looking for that DenialVer money?
https://wyoming.craigslist.org/reo/5780229537.html
What kind of work is there in Cheyenne?
Friend in Boulder moved her mom here from back east, only assisted living she could find for her is in Cheyenne, everywhere in northern Front Range CO was too expensive.
It is the state capital for starters, so there are government jobs. There’s also an air force base. It’s a railroad hub and because electricity is cheap there are data centers located there.
It’s a small town, about 60K IIRC.
Rigged stawks, rigged polls, rigged bets….
Everything is rigged.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/big-london-bets-tilted-bookmakers-brexit-odds-1466976156
I’m rigged too.
The GOP hates Obama, swore to get nothing done (McCon). Do they all hate Trump? So….
This was the yr the GOP could have easily won… and they go with Don…
It is getting more difficult for the crony establishment to get the stamp of approval. Maybe not impossible yet, but getting more so. Poke them in the eye in November no matter what. Don’t sit home quietly.
In 2008 and 2012, we had a retard quotient of 95%, as demonstrated by the way these docile and stupid herd creatures mindlessly bent over for the corrupt crony capitalist status quo by casting votes for Obama, McCain, and Romney. WIll the electorate of 2016 be any less stupid? I have my doubts, but we’ll see soon enough.
Hillary not going to get more than 46% of the vote.
People wake up to reality during pain, hardship and discomfort. Not everyone wakes up quickly. I knew of a man who was so comfortable sitting by his stove that he wouldn’t go outside for another bucket of coal.
I said in the last election that it was too early for a real hero, since we hadn’t generally experienced a real depression yet. Maybe it is still too early, but there are more people awake than before.
Interesting that R’s tried to elect a “moral saint” last time with Romney, which the Dems/media machine had no problem attacking. Now they go with the Donald - a bit of an opposite - and the Dem/media machine reverse course and crucify him as well. Their brains must look like pretzels.
Just think what the justice department and fbi will look like under a Hillary regime. It will protect her, disregard any and all laws it feels like, and relentlessly attack the working class.
7 in 10 Americans have less than $1,000 in savings…
That put us all so much closer to being a 1%-er!
we are the 30% !(at least)
If you have $1000 in “savings” and owe $500,000 on a shack, you are still just a debt donkey.
If you have $1000 in “savings” and owe $500,000 on a shack, you are still just a debt donkey.
Unless your neighbor just sold for $1.5 mill. Debt is a tool. See Trump’s lifestyle of debt.
Or your neighbor could have sold for $400,000, and then you are really screwed
President Trump will fix all that.
“If you have $1000 in “savings” and owe $500,000 on a shack, you are still just a debt donkey.”
Homeless bums are wealthier than these homeowners aka debt donkeys. How many of them are there? Millions? Strange world we live in.
“Homeless bums are wealthier than these homeowners aka debt donkeys.”
It’s hard for a homeless guy to get underwater by $100Ks on a home loan. But then again, it’s also hard for homeless folks to qualify for personal bailouts.
3 of 5 in my household have less than $1,000 in savings…the equivalent of 6 in 10.
But they are all less than 9 years old…do they count?
China’s central planners are riding a tiger. The masses who were implicitly led to believe the CCP’s Comrades of Proven Worth wouldn’t let them lose money are not going to react well when they find themselves facing a financial wipeout once the Chinese housing bubble implodes.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-09/hangzhou-we-have-problem-over-71-new-chinese-loans-went-fund-mortgages
Soros owns Hillary.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/07/leaked-emails-show-clinton-campaign-coordinating-with-soros-organization/
RKH this is one of my favorite pics to drop on FB in reply to Hillary shill posts:
http://imgur.com/a/4e0nN
Ha ha!
Deplorable.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ohio-newspaper-breaks-with-tradition-endorses-clinton/ar-BBxcDQs
The last Demik Rat they endorsed? Woodrow Wilson. Surprise, surprise.
They are scared to death of someone pulling back the curtain.
Don’t they realize that it makes Trump even more appealing to the masses?
Saudi bank stocks crashing…sure it’s nothing to be concerned about, or the MSM would’ve raised the alarm.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-09/mideast-massacre-saudi-bank-stocks-crash-crisis-lows
What could be a more fitting backdrop to this ugly U.S. election season than the beginnings of another global financial meltdown?
Get to work, Mr. Yellon.
They’re working hard to find bad news there at Zerohedge. Friday is the Sunday of Islam, so check the news from Muslim countries for looming crises.
Are you even capable of differentiating between bad news and good news?
http://imgur.com/gallery/A43mw
Is US any different?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-09/hangzhou-we-have-problem-over-71-new-chinese-loans-went-fund-mortgages
ECONOMICS
Low Rates Are Here to Stay
114OCT 7, 2016 6:30 AM EST
By Noah Smith
When I talk to friends in asset management, I often hear them express a deep, gnawing worry about low interest rates. Fears that low rates would spark inflation, or cause governments to default on their debt, seem to have receded. I don’t hear many people talk about a “bond bubble” anymore. But one big concern won’t go away — the idea that low rates will cause financial instability.
The idea is that low rates encourage excessive risk-taking, in the financial world and possibly the business world as well. Awash in a sea of cheap money, asset managers will bid up the price of financial assets well above their sustainable values. They will reach for yield, funding overly risky projects in a desperate attempt to deliver returns that meet their investors’ high expectations. All of this will result in a crash — stocks and real estate prices will plummet back to sustainable levels, and risky projects will fail en masse, leading to a recession.
This scenario can’t be ruled out, of course — in the financial markets, almost nothing is impossible. But I’m skeptical. The clearest reason is the historical record. Japan has had interest rates at or near zero for two decades now, and there has been no sign of disaster in its financial markets. Stock and home prices have not performed well there, it’s true, but there’s been little sign of a reach for yield, risk-taking remains low and there have been no big bubbles. In other words, Japan’s case makes it obvious that low rates don’t always lead to financial instability.
What is it that allows rates to hover around zero indefinitely without causing investors to do bad things with cheap money? It depends on why rates are low in the first place. If money is cheap because central banks are using their powers to keep rates lower than what the market would bear on its own, it stands to reason that investors will take cheap money and invest it in riskier things than they otherwise would. But if rates are low because of natural forces in the economy, and central banks actually have little to do with it, then there’s no reason businesspeople would be taking extra risk.
Interest rates are a price — the price of future money, in terms of today’s money. In the short term, central banks can push that price around by buying and selling bonds. If they distort the price, we can expect those distortions to show up elsewhere as higher inflation and financial bubbles. But the price can also be affected by a number of longer-term factors. For example, if people or companies become more patient, valuing the future more relative to the past, we should expect interest rates to decline, since people wouldn’t need as much of an incentive to save money.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-10-07/low-rates-are-here-to-stay
walmart sales are cratering faster than trumpsters poll numbers.
Trump’s poll numbers are strong as ever, cuz Palmetto sez…
Low
Rates Aredemand is Here to Stay.Just how communists like it.
No sign of disaster in Japan’s financial markets? Can Japan even be said to have financial markets anymore, given that the BoJ simply buys everything in sight?
Yellen’s comment that perhaps the Fed might buy stocks in the future is, to me, a “sign of disaster.”
“…given that the BoJ simply buys everything in sight?”
What are the implications of central banks becoming the buyers of last resort of EVERYTHING?
IMO the implication is that eventually the central banks will own EVERYTHING.
Tech Bubble 2.0 is starting to burst.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-09/two-words-suddenly-strike-fear-silicon-valley-heartsprice-reduced
“However, many will state this is all a bunch of “hyperbole” or “uninformed assertions” or better yet, as is portrayed among the main stream financial media crowd as “the doom and gloom-ers looking only to be proved wrong again, i.e., “For just look at these markets!” I leave you with 2 words that were near unconscionable over the last few years.
Two very small words that have monumental implications and should bring panic to anyone in tech, “Silicon Valley,” or still holding dreams of cashing out large on the basis of an IPO built on the “Eyeballs for ads” model. And it’s right there in Palo Alto, California for all to see. That is – if one dares look.
Those two words?
“Price Reduced!”
And no, that’s not in reference to a Silicon Valley darling such as a start-up. No, those two words belong to that other seemingly invincible meme which was seen as far more stable than the IPO’s that afforded them.
Real estate.”
There it is, real estate. The canary in the coal mine of Silicon Valley. They know something’s coming, so they’re looking for a greater fool. Problem is, there may not be many of those left.
Twitter has been left at the altar by its suitors. But does anyone remember Groupon? Groupon? Bueller? Bueller?
Palo Alto, CA Real Estate & Homes for Sale
142 Homes
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Palo-Alto_CA
Palo Alto, CA Price Reduced Homes for Sale
29 Homes
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Palo-Alto_CA/show-price-reduced
This one looked weird so I ran a search:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/170-N-California-Ave-Palo-Alto-CA-94301/19497393_zpid/
For Sale
$2,795,000
Price cut: -$400,000 (9/26)
‘**Building permits ready to pull. Motivated Seller. Rare opportunity to jump start a project in prestigious Old Palo Alto! Fully approved plans by City of Palo Alto. Property listed as land value and approved architectural plans for a beautiful 4,041+/- sf transitional French-style home.’
09/26/16 Price change $2,795,000-12.5%
09/13/16 Price change $3,195,000-8.4%
08/15/16 Listed for sale $3,488,000+2.4%
08/31/15 Sold $3,407,000+71.3% Nena Price
08/08/15 Pending sale $1,989,000
07/28/15 Listed for sale $1,989,000+2,552%
02/28/75 Sold $75,000
If I’m reading this right, this bozo is out 600k in a year, if he sells at this price. It’s the usual “wait exactly a year to flip” deal. Hey Bozo, you won’t have to worry about paying taxes on this one.
This is consistent with what’s happening in Greenwich, CT as well, especially at the upper end (the upper end being over $5 million)
That is his loss before a 5% commission to the selling agent!
It’s an inevitability…only a matter of when, not whether.
FL and noVA? It’s getting ugly even for 2008-2014 buyers.
N va, tight inventory w no price move
See nvar.com
When did the word “rapey” become a thing, as an adjective?
Was it Facebook? Reddit? Twitter? 4chan? Tinder?
I don’t care, but either way I love it.
Bill Clinton has raped and sexually assaulted many many many women. And I know some salty mouthed women who talk about guys and their c*cks in language no less salty than anything The Donald has said.
Turnabout is fair play. And celibate SJW’s, enjoy those cats and boxed wine
Most of the cucks who are clutching their pearls over Trump’s locker-room banter would sleep alone in a women’s prison.
“And I know some salty mouthed women who talk about guys and their c*cks in language no less salty than anything The Donald has said.”
The very popular ‘it’s OK, cuz everyone is doing it’ apology…
You are a parent, right?
Is 14 years old enough for a female to give consent to have intercourse with a 50+ year old male?
It’s kinda disturbing when you think about it, but that’s what you’re voting for when you vote for the Democrat Party, the party of statutory rape.
#JeffreyEpstein
You must not have heard that Trump is a friend of that guy as well.
Epstein was also a regular visitor to Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago, and the two were friends. According to the Daily Mail, Trump was a frequent dinner guest at Epstein’s home, which was often full of barely dressed models. In 2003, New York magazine reported that Trump also attended a dinner party at Epstein’s honoring Bill Clinton.
http://nypost.com/2016/10/09/the-sex-slave-scandal-that-exposed-pedophile-billionaire-jeffrey-epstein/
“In 2003, New York magazine reported that Trump also attended a dinner party at Epstein’s honoring Bill Clinton.”
Gotta love the hypocrisy!
A photo has surfaced of Trump grabbing a pu**y.
https://westernrifleshooters.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/screen-shot-2016-10-08-at-9-08-12-pm.png
Not quite…he just got the bush.
And now, for something completely different:
The Friday Cover
‘He Brutalized For You’
How Joseph McCarthy henchman Roy Cohn became Donald Trump’s mentor.
By Michael Kruse
April 08, 2016
The reporter from the Washington Post didn’t ask Donald Trump about nuclear weapons, but he wanted to talk about them anyway. “Some people have an ability to negotiate,” Trump said, of facing the Soviet Union. “You either have it or you don’t.”
He wasn’t daunted by the complexity of the topic: “It would take an hour and a half to learn everything there is to learn about missiles,” he said.
It was the fall of 1984, Trump Tower was new, and this was unusual territory for the 38-year-old real estate developer. He was three years away from his first semi-serious dalliance with presidential politics, more than 30 years before the beginning of his current campaign—but he had gotten the idea to bring this up, he said, from his attorney, his good friend and his closest adviser, Roy Cohn.
That Roy Cohn.
Roy Cohn, the lurking legal hit man for red-baiting Sen. Joe McCarthy, whose reign of televised intimidation in the 1950s has become synonymous with demagoguery, fear-mongering and character assassination. In the formative years of Donald Trump’s career, when he went from a rich kid working for his real estate-developing father to a top-line dealmaker in his own right, Cohn was one of the most powerful influences and helpful contacts in Trump’s life.
…
In case anyone fears The Donald may be anti-gay, note that Roy Kohn was a homosexual who died of AIDS.
Trump gave him the AIDS. Get on with the program, dude.
In other news - Hillary praises her friend and mentor, former KKK.
huma and hill are bush lovers, or else why does wiener keep sexting his wiener to young girls….things that make you go hmmmmm
$72 trillion dollars in derivatives exposures, yet DB assures us there’s no sytemic risk to the financial system if its derivatives portfolio blows up.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-09/deutsche-bank-tells-investors-not-worry-about-its-€46-trillion-derivatives
Conspiracy theory becomes fact once again.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-09/new-email-leak-reveals-unprecedented-coordination-between-hillary-campaign-and-press
If zerohedge sez it, then it must be true.
Hillary and the MSM are owned by the same oligarchs.
there is too much debt for the economy to ever take off.
What if the Fed buys all the debt, thereby extinguishing it?
We need moar debt. Mighty mouse just suggested that Japan is kicking a$$ with their ZIRP.
#Hillary doesn’t give a f* about male voters except for cucked out beta boys who like watching their wives get r@ped.
LOLZ at all of all the Bill Clinton rape apologists, he is a rapist and sexual predator.
Would you put your 14 year old daughter in a hotel room with this monster?
Bill Clinton is a RAPIST.
The Donald is dropping the nuclear option on Hillary. I gotta admit, she is icy.
Even for these two in the company of Anderson Cooper this is bizarre.
Almost like a 2.0 version of elections in the new millenium. Mudslinging and surprises are what we crave.
Did Hillary just say Abraham Lincoln made her call Bernie supporters “buckets of losers”?
That woman babbles like an idiot and lies like a thief. Trump is right. She’s all talk with 30 years of no action.
He took a slap at his VP. It was well deserved. GTFO, Pence.
I thought the fly landing on her face was a nice touch, tee-hee. I guess it sensed a corpse in the making.
“I thought the fly landing on her face was a nice touch, tee-hee. I guess it sensed a corpse in the making.”
Damn! “rotting flesh”
I thought you were joking.
Why do flies fly toward and land on people?
Matt Hickman
January 24, 2011, 9:46 a.m.
The fact of the matter is that houseflies are scavengers and land on us because, well, they like us: The human body, like some of their favorite food sources — feces, food and rotting flesh — radiates a sense of warmth and nourishment. And while not interested in biting (they don’t have the equipment for that), the common housefly, or musca domestica, does want to suck up the salt, dead skin, oil and whatever they find edible on the exposed epidermis with their straw-like tongues.
Thanks to hearty appetites aided by an excellent sense of smell and a pair of complex eyes that cover half of their heads, houseflies also land on us and everything else in sight because they’re constantly on the hunt for a nice warm place to poop, vomit (they vomit on solid foods to liquefy it and make it edible) and lay eggs.
http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/animals/questions/why-do-flies-fly-toward-and-land-on-people - 221k -
Well, dang, ya learn something new every day!
Nothing beats the Ted Cruz booger snack, though.
Since she has never been president before, what lack of action is he talking about? Couldn’t she make the same claim that Trump has failed to act over 30 years, given that he hasn’t ever been president before, either?
Are you really that stupid? HRC has been a politician her entire life and her husband WAS President for 8 years. HRC was Secretary of State. Her 30 years of public “service” has been an unmitigated disaster.
OTOH, Trump, until very recently, was just a private citizen. A businessman who actually had a job (and made jobs, too).
HRC reminds us endlessly about her stellar “record”. She’s also destroyed lots of people (particularly blowjob Bill’s babes).
That might be what DJT was talking about.
You must have a rather expansive definition of politician.
Virtual meeting run long today?
she was senator from ny and she let the upstate rot into a depression..for her 8 years
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/as-senator-clinton-promised-200000-jobs-in-upstate-new-york-her-efforts-fell-flat/2016/08/07/339d3384-58d2-11e6-831d-0324760ca856_story.html
We want less gov, not more. she did not let it rot, it rotted on its own.
Hillary supporters, who are as vile as she is, do not care about electing a habitual liar who is corrupt to her evil core.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-09/its-about-time-recession-property-manager-warns-rents-drop-first-time-career
“Mr. Trump what would you do about Aleppo?”
Trump: ” He was a great Marx brother.”
odd that Christians and gays are not first in line since they seem to be the first in line for torture and beheadings from isis.
What interests do we have in Syria outside of humanitarian?
oil but we dont want Americans to get any of it
Hillary’s response to every Donald Trump point.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4bftQ4xxFc - 168k -
He hit it out of the park. The first couple of minutes were a bit rocky and so obviously a set-up, and then he took the gloves off and beat her like a drum. BAM! What tape? There was a tape?
An epic schlonging. Good job, Don!
I’m not sure I would stick with that “schlonging” metaphor in light of recent revelations.
Anderson Cooper grills Donald Trump: ‘You bragged that you have sexually assaulted women’
Aol.com Editors
Oct 9th 2016 9:43PM
…
I never knew that Donald Trump’s “Yeah, I guess so,” vote on the Howard Stern show in March 2003 was the vote that put us over the top on the Iraq War, which Clinton voted to authorize as a New York Senator in 2002 but that’s what Hillary, Lester Holt and the rest of the real journalists keep saying so it must be true.
“He hit it out of the park.”
You (and he) said that after the last debate.
And then his poll numbers sagged…
Does Trump believe that getting elected president would place him above the Judicial Branch and the Rule of Law?
A new low, even for Donald Trump
Trump says he will ‘get a special prosecutor’ to investigate Clinton’s e-mails if he becomes president
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump told Hillary Clinton that if he becomes president, he will instruct the attorney general to hire a special prosecutor to investigate her. (The Washington Post)
By Editorial Board October 9 at 11:47 PM
HAS THERE been a more disturbing low in presidential politics?
“If I win, I am going to instruct my attorney general to get a special prosecutor to look into your situation,” Republican nominee Donald Trump threatened in the course of the second presidential debate Sunday night.
“It’s just awfully good that someone with the temperament of Donald Trump is not in charge of the law in our country,” Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton responded.
“Because you’d be in jail,” Mr. Trump shot back.
Mark the moment. A major-party presidential nominee is officially promising to lock up his political opponent, despite the fact that an impartial federal investigation concluded that no fair prosecutor would have charged Ms. Clinton in the matter of her emails. If anyone needed any more proof that Mr. Trump does not understand the meaning of rule of law as opposed to arbitrary rule of autocrat — that he would use the levers of the federal government in a vindictive, self-serving and corrupt manner — Mr. Trump provided it.
…
Given that pundits are openly discussing the role of the central banks’ interest rate suppression regime in driving asset prices to frothy levels, the end is near.
THE FINANCIAL TIMES
Central bank intervention
Bubbly finance and low inflation spark alarm
It is always easy for central banks to find reasons not to act
Sebastian Mallaby
October 7, 2016
The politics of many advanced countries may be unhinged, but there is an equally frightening disconnect in the world’s financial markets. Equity prices, which represent claims on the proceeds of future growth, have risen sharply in the past five years, even though growth expectations have been revised down almost everywhere.
Bond markets seem oblivious to risk: no matter how long the duration, or how dubious the credit, investors are buying securities with yields that are derisory or negative. House prices in the US are approaching their pre-crisis level. In the UK they are above that level. In Canada they are far above it.
The cause of this alarming froth is extraordinarily loose monetary policy. Nobody denies this obvious fact, but plenty of thoughtful commentators argue that central banks should nonetheless continue to create money. To a financial historian, unfortunately, this debate recalls an awful time. We have seen a version of this movie before. It did not end happily.
A dozen years ago, the US Federal Reserve found itself in a similar predicament. Alan Greenspan, the celebrated Fed chairman, had cut the short-term borrowing rate to 1 per cent — startlingly low for the pre-2008 era. He had experimented with a radical new tool, pushing down on long-term interest rates by guiding investors to expect a “considerable period” of low short-term ones. As a result of this extraordinary stimulus, house prices and financial markets were heating up. Yet core inflation languished below 1.5 per cent, not far off today’s level.
Faced with this very 2016 mix of frothy markets on the one hand and low inflation on the other, Mr Greenspan and his colleagues were both worried and insouciant. At their interest-rate meeting in January 2004, Timothy Geithner, then president of the New York Fed, warned of future “distortions in financial markets that can only be unwound with some drama”. Mr Greenspan sounded even more worried. “When we get down to the rate levels at which everybody is reaching for yield, at some point the process stops and untoward things happen,” he said grimly.
And yet, like today’s central banks, the Greenspan Fed chose not to act against these market dangers. With the unfair benefit of hindsight, we know this was a mistake: by 2005-2006, “untoward” risks were accumulating. So the question for today’s policymakers must be: are they repeating that error?
…
Billy Bush, Host on ‘Today,’ Is Suspended by NBC
Billy Bush in New York in August.
Craig Barritt / Getty Images
By JOHN KOBLIN
October 9, 2016
Billy Bush, a host on the “Today” show who has received stinging criticism for his role in a video with Donald J. Trump, has been suspended by NBC.
The NBC executive in charge of “Today,” Noah Oppenheim, wrote in a memo to his staff members on Sunday that “we’ve all been deeply troubled by the revelations of the past 48 hours.”
“Let me be clear — there is simply no excuse for Billy’s language and behavior on that tape,” he said. “NBC has decided to suspend Billy, pending further review of this matter.”
…
Gasp…rental rates are starting to drop in the most bubblicious cities.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-09/its-about-time-recession-property-manager-warns-rents-drop-first-time-career
Regulators prepare for “derivatives clearning crisis.”
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/10/09/europe-biggest-problem-is-its-banks-coming-derivatives-clearing-crisis/