November 4, 2016

It Was Always Coming And We Wondered When

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Nearly a decade after the housing crisis, the mortgage market has evolved in unexpected ways, with nontraditional financiers increasingly backing ever more leveraged loans. And while nonbanks like Quicken and Nationsta underwrite to the same strict standards the banks do, their business model could put them at a disadvantage in a downturn. Nonbanks depend on being able to sell the mortgages they originate quickly. If they ever ran low on liquidity, they would have to turn to banks for funds. That kind of widespread need for credit in a financial crisis has never been tested.”

“‘Almost all of the credit risk, the risk of a loan going into default and there being losses, is being borne by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA,’ Quicken Chief Economist Bob Walters told MarketWatch. In the new marketplace, FHA and the VA are ‘filling the vacuum for those buyers that have to stretch more to buy a home, filling the vacuum that was left by the exit of the subprime lenders,’ said Attom Vice President Daren Blomquist.”

“Simon Property Group has put construction of a 52-story Boston luxury tower on hold citing an oversupply of such units and high construction costs, the Boston Herald reported. Onlookers have said this could be the beginning of the end for Boston’s luxury residential market, which has several high-rises in various stages of completion.”

“A similar trend is occurring in Miami, where developers have put luxury developments on hold as high inventory drives sales prices down. Condo developer Related Group stalled a 298-unit development when only 15% of the units drew buyers during the pre-sales period. Construction on the Auberge Residences & Spa Miami was set to begin in 2017, but Related executive Carlos Rosso told The Miami Herald that taking a break ‘might be good for all of us.’”

“San Francisco real estate prices are still astronomical, but a new report shows glimmers of a market that’s returning to earth. An increasing number of sellers are slashing prices, according to Trulia. Brokers are noticing a shift, especially in the high-end market on properties valued over $3 million and on new condos. A sparkling new condo in Mission Bay and a luxurious Italianate mansion in Pacific Heights have been on the market for several weeks, and are likely to see price cuts before they sell. ‘Price reductions are occurring with slightly increased frequency as sellers acclimate to a mildly adjusted market,’ said Sotheby’s agent Rob Levy.”

“Increased competition and tough times in the oilpatch mean some Alberta contractors will likely go bankrupt over the next few months, the president of the Edmonton Construction Association says. The city should weather the downturn better than Calgary, with its 22-per-cent core office vacancy rate, but the completion of several major projects means the local construction industry faces a crunch, Dave Bentley says.”

“‘As a risk-management guy who looks at financial statements which show the healthiness, or not, of companies, we’re concerned,’ he said. He estimated two-thirds of the companies on the association’s board have reduced staff. ‘The cash burn is up for a lot of these heavy equipment contractors. We’re going to see some bankruptcies for sure … in the coming months, in Edmonton, in Calgary, Grande Prairie, Lloydminster.’”

“Builders are sounding alarm bells over a looming downturn in the state’s construction industry. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed building approvals across the state fell by 12 per cent in September. Approvals for detached houses rose 10 per cent but that was wiped out by a 28 per cent decline in the number of new apartments and units given the tick. Master Builders deputy CEO Paul Bidwell said the slump was the first concrete sign of a coming slowdown in unit developments after widespread speculation of a looming oversupply in Brisbane.”

“‘It was always coming and we wondered when,’ he said.’The big guys are looking around and asking where are we going next.’”

“Swire Properties has bucked the rising home price trend in Hong Kong by selling 12 houses on Lantau Island as much as 30 per cent cheaper than the previous launch six months ago. The developer, which builds luxury properties such as Opus Hong Kong in Mid-Levels, on Wednesday night uploaded the latest price list for the house development, Whitesands, in southern Lantau. Swire said buyers would get further discount and tax rebates if they made the purchase before December 16 and completed the deal in three months.”

“‘After all incentives, the maximum discount is as much as 30 per cent ,’ said a Swire spokesperson. Asking prices for homes range from HK$33.76 million to HK$60.67 million. ‘We hope the revised price list can attract more buyers,’she said.”

“The price decline in Singapore - the steepest since 2013 - has made it even more uncertain if earlier signs of a bottoming-out in prices can continue amid mounting concerns over the state of the economy and employment. SLP International executive director Nicholas Mak noted that accelerated price declines in Q3 were across different market segments as well as across different property types. With foreigners bearing the brunt of job losses, the softening employment market is hurting residential leasing, he said.”

“‘Worries over a weaker economy, news of job cuts and fears of a coming recession seem to have adverse impact on the property market,’ Mak said.”

“To curb the excessive rise of real estate prices, the South Korean government Thursday released a set of anti-speculation plans that include an extended ban on the transfer of home purchasing rights in affluent areas. ‘The government will limit the transfer of home purchasing rights and enhance monitoring when giving prior purchasing rights to new home buyers, as well as root out illegal activities to curb speculative demand,’ Finance Minister Yoo Il-ho said in an economy-related ministers’ meeting.”

“‘Some real estate markets, centering on reconstruction sites in Gangnam areas, are overheated,’ he said.”

“Most public company heads tend to be pretty circumspect in their statements to the press. Not Vornado’s Steven Roth, who is the ‘last in a line of brash hustlers running blue-chip real estate investment trusts,’ as we write in a profile of him in this issue. Roth isn’t afraid to call a competitor a ‘bald-headed chicken f-er,’ joke about the greed of other developers, or mention that he has to ’suck up’ to Chinese banks to get a loan.”

“Roth is also one of the few who hasn’t been afraid to talk about a weaker climate for retail, saying that landlords holding out for top-dollar rents may not get them. ‘We’re not in a hope business, we’re in the realistic business, and I believe rents have gotten to the point where they’re too high,’ he told investors on an earnings call recently.”

“And it’s not just the retail sector that’s at a significant inflection point. It’s the entire real estate market. On the residential side, clear signs of a buyers’ market have emerged, evidenced by falling prices and concessions, including paid attorneys’ fees, that are being offered as incentives to close deals. It’s becoming a situation where bold buyers who are not afraid to lowball might be rewarded.”

“The softer market is also putting pressure on the brokers who market new condos amid an oversupply of units on the high-end. We go inside their cutthroat world on page 70 and run down how they pitch developers to land new development marketing gigs. Other tactics to spur sales at new developments are less aboveboard.”

“In an investigative piece, reporter Konrad Putzier found that many projects that touted early sales (’50% sold in 72 hours’!) weren’t quite as successful as they indicated. Looking back at public records that were available only once the building was completed, we found that the sales numbers being offered up when a project first launched were often bogus. Many, for example, counted contracts that were merely sent out (but not signed) as ’sold’ units.”




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160 Comments »

Comment by Palm Beach County
2016-11-04 03:50:54

A new study shows Miami is the toughest place in the country for home buyers to get a mortgage, especially if they’re of a non-white race.

http://therealdeal.com/miami/

Comment by 2banana
2016-11-04 07:04:57

Unpossible.

We still have CRA.

“We will tackle lending discrimination wherever it appears. With the new policy in full force, No loan is exempt; no bank is immune. For those who thumb their nose at us, I promise vigorous enforcement.”

Comment by taxpayers
2016-11-04 07:15:29

CRA
CRA\
CRA

= bad loans
guaranteed

Comment by Overbanked
2016-11-04 10:44:09

And Congress is powerless to repeal the CRA because?

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Comment by taxpayers
2016-11-04 11:09:23

O and now Hilary would veto it

 
Comment by Overbanked
2016-11-04 13:54:19

ummm… Obamacare?

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 16:19:50

“…and the average family will see a cost savings of $2500 on their health insurance.” — Obama pitching Obamacare. Hope n’ change, Bitchez….

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-04 18:49:54

I save a fortune, but taxpayers get hosed with my subsidy. $545 per mo. Subsidy is more than half.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-04 23:03:11

“O and now Hilary would veto it”

She’s quite likely to be the next president, courtesy of Trump and the GOP members who nominated him.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Larry Littlefield
2016-11-04 03:51:16

Low downpayment loans were available before the insanity, but you had to purchase mortgage insurance or qualify for FHA or VA loans.

My concern is loan and total debt to income ratios. I suspect these have been elevated, to allow (or force) younger generations to bid up what they pay for Generation Greed’s houses.

What is the current loan to income max at Fannie and Freddie? With lower interest rates it should be going down, not up.

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-11-04 08:59:17

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/

Probably doesn’t answer the precise question you have, but it’s a piece of useful data.

Comment by YellenBux
2016-11-04 09:15:11

What that doesn’t show is all the debt service getting pushed out from 7 or 10 years to 30 and 40 years. Rolling new debt into old debt and extending the term is destructive.

#underwaternation

Comment by Rental Watch
2016-11-04 11:50:59

http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/refinance_report.html

This again, isn’t perfect data, but it does show refinance data now compared to earlier years.

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Comment by YellenBux
2016-11-04 12:16:26

The same smoke and mirrors.

 
Comment by Larry Littlefield
2016-11-04 12:18:06

Bottom line is the debt service ratio is still pretty high with interest rates at zero.

 
Comment by YellenBux
2016-11-04 12:22:30

And triple the duration. Have fun crawling out of that hole.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2016-11-04 14:06:06

Something to put into the back of your head when you see the “debt service” numbers.

Debt service includes both principal and interest, and today, many fewer people are borrowing interest only…and more are refinancing into 15-year mortgages.

In prior eras of ~7% rates for 30 year loans, 12% of your first payment went to principal.

In the era of Option ARMs and interest only loans, 0% (or less) of your first payment went to principal.

In the era of 4%, 30-year mortgages, 30% of your first payment is going to principal.

So the debt service seems high relative to the Fed’s ZIRP, but relative to history, a pretty high percentage of each payment is going to principal. Certainly higher than during the bubble, and very likely higher than pre-bubble eras.

This effect (more principal reductions for each payment) is due to the choices people have made with respect to the type of debt they hold, and IMHO, reflective of a population that overall is more debt averse than it has been in some time. You can see this in the total amount of mortgage debt outstanding per the NY Fed:

From Q1 2004 to peak in Q3 2008, total mortgage debt grew from $6.17T to $9.99T, an annualized rate of 11% per year…a rate commensurate with home price growth. People borrowed more and more because they could–there was little aversion to debt. More debt=more profit.

From the post-crash trough in total outstanding mortgages Q2 2013 at $8.38T to the last reading at Q2 2016 at $8.84T, the annualized growth in total mortgage debt has been running at 1.8%…more or less rising at the rate of inflation…but certainly lower than home price growth. People are NOT borrowing meaningfully more just because home prices are rising. Today, people’s attitudes seem to be “more debt=more risk”.

 
Comment by YellenBux
2016-11-04 14:42:38

Kicking the can down the road. There’s no way to convolute it.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-11-04 16:37:54

People are NOT borrowing meaningfully more just because home prices are rising.

And yet, if you just look at the total debt load, the proles have been fooled into increasing total debt from ~6T to ~9T, a 50% increase in debt. 3T seems like a meaningful increase to me.

Service may seem reasonable today with historically-unheard-of interest rates; but let’s see how that extra 3T gets repaid if rates revert to the mean anytime in the next 30yrs.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2016-11-05 05:57:29

5 years into a loan at 3.25% interest = loan balance reduced 14.6%. I really enjoy looking at my loan statement each month.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-05 06:21:19

“I really enjoy looking at my loan statement each month.”

That’s priceless. Like a DebtDonkey.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-04 23:09:15

Loan to income should GO UP with lower rates, as the same monthly payment supports a higher loan amount as rates decline.

 
 
Comment by Palm Beach County
2016-11-04 03:54:54

Leonard Kiefer ‏@lenkiefer
Recently, fastest house price growth has been out west, #dataviz looks at how states have ranked in terms of house price growth:

https://twitter.com/thesamkhater

 
Comment by butters
2016-11-04 03:59:52

Civil war, Civil war….

Bring out the popcorn!

Comment by 2banana
2016-11-04 07:18:57

Massive voter fraud.

Foriegn countries buying influence with a candidate through massive donations to a charity

A national candidate sending goons to incite violence at her opponents rallies.

Using the IRS to go after political enemies.

Having the DOJ stop investigations due to politics.

Etc.

I say we are in a civil war already….

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-04 08:07:19

“we are in a civil war already”

It sure does look that way. I think that if you peel the onion on this it goes back at least to the early days of the Clinton administration and China.

The dynasty needs to end.

 
Comment by Dutch Spikes
2016-11-04 09:35:50

This country has been in a civil war since April 12, 1861. Although the Union won the initial conflict–the tensions behind the War Between the States have never completely gone away. The tensions peaked again in the 1960’s, when the Union won again with the victories of the Civil Rights Movement. We’re in another peak of tensions as evidenced by the removal of the Confederate flag from the South Carolina Capitol. Those who hold on to the values of the Old South don’t just live in Dixie–they occupy much of rural America. And they’re in decline: they’re part of a dwindling white demographic, they don’t adopt new technology, and they don’t take the time to learn about how America is changing. Much of their frustration is targeted at people who have darker skin than them as well as the technocrats who really run the country. There’s a deep and old schism in this country and it ruptures from time to time–but the outcome is always the same: progress.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-04 09:41:42

That’s a load of horse hockey.

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Comment by 2banana
2016-11-04 09:58:03

You nailed it.

It has nothing to do with massive corruption, a government that does not follow it’s own laws and constitution and the stealing of wealth and assets from the 99%…

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-04 10:22:47

This post is revealing in many ways:

‘We’re in another peak of tensions as evidenced by the removal of the Confederate flag from the South Carolina Capitol’

Oh yeah, this comes up in day to day discussions, like never!

‘they’re in decline: they’re part of a dwindling white demographic, they don’t adopt new technology, and they don’t take the time to learn about how America is changing’

Is decline the change? How can Merica dwindle and be some metamorphosing new dynamic?

‘don’t just live in Dixie–they occupy much of rural America’

“They”. Yup, it’s those hicks in the sticks that don’t get it, unlike the fine city slickers. But if the knuckle-dragging hicks are “they”, who is “us”?

‘Much of their frustration is targeted at people who have darker skin than them as well as the technocrats who really run the country’

Ah, so you see yourself as part of the “technocrats who really run the country”, and protectors of the dark skinned mouth breathers. Well sally forth with your civil war Granny. But don’t be too surprised if your antiquated world view gets turned upside down.

 
Comment by MacBeth
2016-11-04 14:24:59

It’s already being turned upside down. Hence, “Dutch Spikes” need to post something so banal.

The poster doesn’t actually believe a word he/she wrote. Likely a follower of Alinsky.

 
 
Comment by Garbage Alert
2016-11-04 10:26:37

More garbage dumped on the blog.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 16:27:37

It’s our resident Correct the Record troll, just back from the DNC’s Collectivist Cadre indoctrination refresher workshop.

 
 
Comment by MacBeth
2016-11-04 14:22:06

What kind of b.s. is this?

You must be a Coastal.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 16:25:29

Mikey resurfaces under a new handle: Dutch Spikes.

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Comment by ibbots
2016-11-04 11:02:30

‘Using the IRS to go after political enemies.’

The Dallas IRS Office That’s Quietly Determining the Fate of the Clinton Foundation

http://www.dallasobserver.com/news/the-dallas-irs-office-thats-quietly-determining-the-fate-of-the-clinton-foundation-8864404

Based on my first hand experience with this office, this is like asking Cheech and Chong to prep the space shuttle for launch.

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-04 15:37:56

“Based on my first hand experience with this office, this is like asking Cheech and Chong to prep the space shuttle for launch.”

That made me laugh so hard I spit pizza on my laptop.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-04 23:11:30

Using the FBI to go after political enemies. Yep… it’s war. A propaganda war.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-11-05 10:45:20

Let me get this straight: you think Obama is behind this??

Thanks, Obama!!

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Comment by snake charmer
2016-11-04 08:06:19

I’ve moved away from the passive entertainment metaphor myself. In 1861 some people brought picnic baskets and set up to watch the Battle of Bull Run, no doubt thinking it would be glorious spectacle and that, when it was over, their lives and the nation’s life would continue as before. If anything should happen this time, whether we want to be there or not, we’ll be in the movie rather than watching it.

 
 
Comment by Palm Beach County
2016-11-04 04:21:09

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Hit 19-Week High
Freddie Mac PMMS Rate Survey
Mortgage Rates Rise On New Inflation Data

Mortgage rates jumped this week, to the highest levels since summer.

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of more than 100 mortgage lenders, conventional 30-year fixed rate mortgages increased 7 basis points (0.07%) from last week’s reading. Rates rose to 3.54% nationwide, on average.

It’s the highest reading in 19 weeks.

New data released this week signaled that inflation could be on the rise. Inflation is bad for mortgage rates.

http://themortgagereports.com/23040/freddie-mac-pmms-mortgage-rates-november-3-2016

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2016-11-04 04:52:13

If you own a home and have an interest rate below 4%, rising interest rates will make a decision to move more challenging if your move entails paying off your low rate and replacing it with a higher rate loan.

We live in interesting times.

Comment by scdave
2016-11-04 05:55:19

If you own a home and have an interest rate below 4%, rising interest rates will make a decision to move more challenging ??

As I have suggested here many times…The entire country pretty much is sitting on sub-4% mortgages….Some are sub-3%…

Comment by Salinasron
2016-11-04 06:26:45

I refied a month ago. Bought in April 2011 on a 30 @ 4%. With prepaying was setting @yr 18. My mortgage co. Offered me 2.75% if I took out another 30yr and no refi costs or I could have a 15 yr with 1.5 points. I finally took a no cost 15 yr. @ 2.87%. They really pushed for cash out refi which was not for me. Principle is now 2/3 rds of my mortgage payment. Extra money invested into property for me is better than into the stock market.

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Comment by new attitude
2016-11-04 14:28:49

I never understood the chronic re-fier. Paying all that interest up front. Ever seen an amortization table?

not your case going 30 to 15.

Se ya at home Depot!

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2016-11-04 15:45:50

I refinanced twice. First, lowering my rate from 5.15% to 4.375%, then to 3.75%. New 30-year loans in each case (but the refinances were all within the first 2 years of ownership. Never any cash out.

At 5.15%, you pay back $1.96 for every $1 you borrow.
At 4.375%, you pay back $1.80 for every $1 you borrow.
At 3.75%, you pay back $1.67 for every $1 you borrow.

When rates were really low a few months ago, I asked my lender what the rate might be if I refinanced again…she said she might be able to get me 3.5%…not worth it.

IMHO, the most important item on the mortgage payment each month is how much interest you pay.

If your refinance isn’t lowering this number, it’s a bad idea.

Even if you refinance into a new 30-year mortgage, lowering the rate, but extending maturity, you can always CHOOSE to pay more to principal each month, thus accelerating the repayment back to where you were originally, and you’ll be better off than you were before the refinance.

You can’t un-owe interest to the lender.

 
 
 
Comment by YellenBux
2016-11-04 06:53:51

Let’s be truthful. If you’re a mortgage slave, you don’t own anything. You’re renting from the bank.

Comment by 2banana
2016-11-04 07:13:19

Let’s be truthful. If you’re a property tax slave, you don’t own anything. You’re renting from the government.

Mortgages can be paid off.

Property taxes are forever.

And public goon pensions will be paid.

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Comment by YellenBux
2016-11-04 07:34:16

‘Mortgages can be paid off.’

Sunk cost.

 
Comment by scdave
2016-11-04 07:37:31
 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-11-04 11:13:27

Chicago ‘re taxes up 12,8%
To pay union goons

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-04 12:14:39

So why do productive people still live in Chicago? Why haven’t they all moved to a low tax haven like Cheyenne, Wyoming?

 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-11-04 13:56:18

IRS data shows that they are moving out

 
 
Comment by Salinasron
2016-11-04 08:42:53

It’s not about owning but controlling rent and diversification of an asset (not an investment but hopefully inflation protection over the long term).

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Comment by Price Discovery
2016-11-04 08:44:53

And when rents and prices fall?

 
 
Comment by rms
2016-11-04 17:08:24

It is nice to have a garage for the hang gliders, motorcycle, roll-away toolbox and a stud to hang the Rigid Tool Girl calendar.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 05:13:19

Jill Stein, unlike Bernie Sanders, is clearly no sellout or the controlled opposition. An independent candidate unafraid to speak truth to power or blast corruption in high places - me gusto.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-03/jill-stein-crushes-hillary-clinton-queen-corruption

Comment by snake charmer
2016-11-04 10:28:04

Which is why I am voting for her. I know she’s not going to win. I get that. But this is the only real political power I have and I intend to use it. And I live in Florida.

Comment by Eddie89
2016-11-04 13:34:15

Ditto for Jill Stein.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 05:22:00

The sleazy, co-opted, RINO sellouts in the Establishment GOP “leadership” are rightfully worried that the Republican base detests them for their failure to support Trump (and for being devoid of any true Republican convictions or principles).

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-04/republican-voters-rallying-to-trump-leave-leaders-in-awkward-spot

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 05:24:20

Wow - a left-leaning celebrity who isn’t a vapid pom-pom shaker for the “completely corrupt” DNC.

http://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/304218-susan-sarandon-the-dnc-is-completely-corrupt

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 05:26:50

But…but…during the presidential debates Crooked Hillary said there was no evidence that her private e-mail server, set up to facilitate ex officio influence peddling and pay-to-play, was ever hacked. Add that to the never-ending list of Hillary’s lies.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/report-clinton-server-breached-by-up-to-seven-actors/article/2606440

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 05:32:14

Jeffery Epstein, friend of the Clintons and owner of Orgy Island and the Lolita Express, no doubt has plenty of video on his rich and powerful fellow scum.

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/british-socialite-perv-jeffrey-epstein-prove-innocence-article-1.2833053

Comment by mcbain!
2016-11-04 15:57:21

Look at Brock Pierce, accused pedo and board member of the Clinton Global Initiative:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brock_Pierce
https://medium.com/@cuttlefish_btc/brock-pierce-timeline-a230ad1ecdc5#.qunlh7yfd

Also X-men director Bryan Singer, accused pedo and big time Hillary and DNC contributor:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/people/2014/04/17/x-men-director-accused-of-sex-abuse-in-lawsuit/7814697/

The rabbit hole on those two goes deep.

If you were a scumbag, which candidate would you try and purchase a get out of jail pass from?

 
Comment by rms
2016-11-04 19:51:17

Where are these young girl’s parents… off spending the loot like those pimping parents who took their bait to Neverland Ranch?

 
 
Comment by scdave
2016-11-04 05:57:59

And, thanks again to you Ben for bringing the national and international housing information to the board each day…I thought the Florida information today was quite interesting…Related Cos. pulling in their horns…

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 06:00:38

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” — H. L. Mencken

Comment by 2banana
2016-11-04 07:14:35

“Never let a crisis go to waste.”

Said by some powerful democrat.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 06:08:50

This is what happens when a society becomes so morally debauched that it sanctions and enables institutional corruption with its votes.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/10/murder-rate-mexico-161031122439604.html

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 06:10:57

94.6 million Americans “not in the work force” yet the official unemployment rate is 4.9%. Baghdad Bob would blush with shame if asked to propagate such a whopper.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-04/people-not-labor-force-surge-425000-94609000

 
Comment by ZH
2016-11-04 06:45:56

People Not In Labor Force Surge By 425,000 To 94,609,000

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-04/people-not-labor-force-surge-425000-94609000

Helps keep things in perspective.

Comment by taxpayers
2016-11-04 07:17:21

why work
get
o phone
stamps
welfare
free hc

Hilary to continue the no workfare policy

Comment by Obama Goons
2016-11-04 07:21:40

Hillaryous is unelectable.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 16:33:48

Hillary will establish the scum quotient in our population and electorate. Anyone who pulls the lever for Crooked Hillary is willfully aiding and abetting systemic corruption.

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Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-04 06:49:37

It’s crumbling.

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-11-04 07:51:36

Do you want me to read the card?

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-04 15:21:56

Yes, yes! Say it, goon: “This sucker could go down”. GWB

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-04 16:23:46

“Do you want me to read the card?”

Absolutely!

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2016-11-04 07:09:31

A trip down memory lane.

How we got in this mess.

A hint. Bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations buying votes.

—–

Why the Mortgage Crisis Happened

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2008/10/what_really_happened_in_the_mo.html

Comment by YellenBux
2016-11-04 07:43:21

Government tinkers and tampers, costs go through the roof. No one in the federal government has the capacity to think nor have they ever been a part of a profit earning enterprise. We’re a nation led by arrogant people with a host of ignorant stupid people assisting them.

Comment by taxpayers
2016-11-04 07:51:23

FEDs can retire age 57 w hc for the entire family- even children of divorced spouse

check you county it might be worse

age 55 in mine

Comment by YellenBux
2016-11-04 07:56:19

Housing
Energy
Food
Labor
Finance
Medical

All experiencing severe disruption imposed by government. It’s no mystery why conditions are as poor as they are.

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Comment by jerzdebil
2016-11-04 10:38:23

You forgot education. And if you live in Cali, kids are mandated 40 vaccinations or they arent allowed in day care or any school, public or private. WTF?!?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-04 10:47:43

I thought food prices had fallen 2%

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-04 12:07:26

“food prices had fallen 2%”

Yes, after doubling.

Food price is a proxy for energy price which is a proxy for global construction which is a proxy for central bank easy credit.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-04 12:16:00

So in other words, prices are falling.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2016-11-04 12:17:15

Anyway, isn’t price double something that is affected by central bank monetary policies?

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-04 14:04:29

Of course, perhaps I was too obscure. It is possible that now the monetary policies have worn out their effectiveness to double prices again.

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-04 17:12:04

18 eggs are $1.39 at Costco, get a 10lb bag of rice and beans and you can survive all month off $30. Get your salsa from Taco Bell.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-04 17:36:32

I hear guys like you when I go to a public bathroom sometimes.

 
 
 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-04 17:09:30

Why does these “stupid” gov workers make more than you and retire sooner?

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-04 08:11:32

“Nonbanks depend on being able to sell the mortgages they originate quickly. If they ever ran low on liquidity, they would have to turn to banks for funds. That kind of widespread need for credit in a financial crisis has never been tested.”

Really?

The credit crunch of 2007-2008: a discussion of the background, market reactions, and policy responses

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-04 08:18:47

What was the percentage of the total market they had in 2007?

 
Comment by Price Discovery
2016-11-04 08:41:32

Shut the spigot, dry it up and we’ll see just what all this junk is worth.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-04 09:05:06

‘And it’s not just the retail sector that’s at a significant inflection point. It’s the entire real estate market.’

The biggest damage from a real estate bubble isn’t the decline in prices. It’s the hole left in the economy when the activity dries up. The Australian asks, “where will we go next?” You go home and sit without a paycheck until market forces determine what will get done next. And those forces will be afraid because of the recession. Buying and selling each other houses was never a basis for an economy. But it’s a lesson hard learned.

Comment by 2banana
2016-11-04 10:02:17

You pulled in demand from the next 20 years….

What did you think would happen?

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-11-04 11:03:20

You pulled in demand from the next 20 years….

It’s worse than that; speculative demand is not real demand pulled forward—it’s simply not real demand, period.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-05 03:55:41

Nor is the stimulus-fueled demand created by Subprime Sam’s motley assortment of federally-guaranteed mortgage lending programs, which will eventually cumulate in the next mortgage lending collapse and bailout…

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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-11-05 10:49:40

I would argue that subprime demand is at least real demand; the subprime buyer does need housing, and does want to purchase it (to the marginal extent that their desire isn’t simply speculative, I mean). The problem is that their demand gets pushed to the wrong part of the pricing curve—e.g. where they can’t actually afford to be/stay. They should be either buying lower/cheaper, or not buying at all. The former is real demand; I suppose the latter is not.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-04 10:03:48

How many times do you have to learn the lesson before you no longer meet Albert Einstein’s definition of insanity?

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-04 13:19:59

The only explanation I can think of for the very slow learning process on this matter is that somebody with access to the corridors of power is making buckets of money from the designed-to-regularly-fail system that is encouraged to continue in existence.

 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2016-11-04 19:27:12

“Yet Mr Greenspan also held a fear and a hope. His fear was that participants in the financial game would always be too far ahead of the government’s referees and that the regulators would always fail. His hope was that “when risk management did fail, the Fed would clean up afterwards.” Unfortunately, after the big crisis, in 2007-08, this no longer proved true.”

http://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21707908-was-alan-greenspan-blame-financial-crisis-man-dock

 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-11-04 10:29:17

Many, for example, counted contracts that were merely sent out (but not signed) as ’sold’ units.”

How is that not just flat-out fraud? They are knowingly misrepresenting the current state of sales to the next set of buyers, in order to profit financially.

There will be no prosecutions, of course.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-04 10:46:16

That’s why he called them greedy bald-headed chicken f-ers. Remember when the national association of UHS double counted sales for years?

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2016-11-04 13:12:08

That’s pretty bad.

It’s always been common for builders and brokers alike to call a home “sold” if it was in contract.

HOWEVER, saying it’s “sold” when only a contract had been sent out? That’s a new one for me.

Personally, I always felt as though that status was “purchase contract out for signature”, and “sold” meant that title and money had changed hands.

Silly me, I’m old fashioned in thinking that words mean what they say.

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-04 14:41:03

Prime - go after them. You can do it!!

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-11-04 16:50:43

No harm to me, so I’d have no standing to sue. Someone who did suffer a loss, though—that would be another story.

 
 
 
Comment by Checker
2016-11-04 11:36:52

It’s my belief they still are. You’re on drugs if you think there are five and a half or 6 million housing sales every year.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-05 04:04:17

Good point. For instance, where did they hide all the For Sale, Open House, and hand-written Investment Opportunity signs that used to be visible in every San Diego neighborhood? It’s like the Used Home Salespeople were abducted by space aliens.

 
 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-04 14:24:29

Good news, solar is getting cheaper. Love saving $$$ for doing nothing.

First Solar shares shed nearly 15 percent Thursday after the company reported a 30 percent price drop in solar panels, which has forced it to walk away from some money-losing supply contracts.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 16:36:25

Taxpayers will make good any and all losses in these scam companies which happen to be generous donors to the DNC and Clinton campaigns.

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-04 17:08:19

Chinese tax payers or Taiwanese??

 
 
 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-04 14:31:08

This is for 16 yr olds! Not the 25 yr old with 3 kids in Alabama:

Taco Bell to add 100,000 U.S. jobs by 2022

Comment by butters
2016-11-04 16:09:22

Why do you hate black people so much?

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-04 16:15:57

Genetics??

 
 
 
Comment by mcbain!
2016-11-04 16:01:58

S&P 500 closed down for the 9th straight day, the worst streak since … 1980. What else happened that year?

Remember my prediction about the cubs win signaling a bear market starting. What other historic events can we expect in the near future - maybe a certain presidential candidate getting perp walked?

Wikileaks’ stochastic terminator in overdrive right now.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-04 16:27:09

The S&P and the Dow broke support this week. The next support is 30 or 40% down.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 16:34:55

But everything is still awesome. CNBC’s real journalists would alert us if there were cause for alarm.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-05 05:15:49

Maybe that’s why I sold almost all of Dad’s stocks (again) last month. (Actually the last time, back in early 2007, I talked him into going to cash; this time I am driving for him, as he is almost 90.)

 
 
Comment by mcbain!
2016-11-04 16:30:53

GoPro crashed, again, on announcing 330% decline in net revenues. A few years ago the owner bought a bunch of mansions around the world and a giant yacht. Now his company has crashed like a lot of the people who use gopro - thanks suckas!

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GPRO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77679567694

 
Comment by bill, just south of Irvine
2016-11-04 16:36:25

“What else happened that year?”

Nothing that can happen this year, if you are thinking about a candidate who is LOVED and RESPECTED like Reagan was. Neither of the top two candidates has the love, respect, or character of the opposition, and by “opposition” I mean people who intend to vote for the top competitor of that candidate they respect or love.

I respected Reagan, as like almost a father figure. My parents admired Reagan. But I could not vote for him.

I cannot say the same about either of the top two candidates now.

If you see no difference between 1980 and now you are a religious fanatic about one of the top two candidates.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 16:47:29

Thank you for your latest irrelevant musings, Sweet William.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-05 04:16:22

Trumplings gonna trumple.

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Comment by new attitude
2016-11-04 17:04:03

I admire Leo DiCaprio and of course Al Pacino - isnt that the same thing? Like Reagan, they are actors (only better).

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 18:40:38

Leo DiCaprio is a preening, self-absorbed little tw*t who jets around the world in his private Gulfstream to give self-important little lectures on the evils of global warming to whatever fawning globalists will give him an invite and media attention.

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Comment by redmondjp
2016-11-04 21:38:34

So in other words, Leo is just a younger version of Al Gore.

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Comment by mcbain!
2016-11-04 19:27:29

You were a child, and saw the world through a childs eyes. Now you are old, and a bitter cynic - as we all are to some extent. Maybe if you were a kid now, you’d think the same of Trump as you did of Reagan. But you lack that kind of awareness and as a typical atheist, you see the religious bogeyman behind anyone who has a different point of view. I doubt if anyone posting anti Hillary stuff has all that much affinity for Trump. I personally would like the presidency reduced to having very little power, maybe him and a cabinet of 12 or so and beyond that every single office including all these stupid agencies would get voted on - and especially judges! Courts need to get whittled down as there are too many laws, many are nonsensical and in no way can be enforced fairly and evenly.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-05 04:29:41

“I personally would like the presidency reduced to having very little power,…”

If that’s what you think Trump is about, then you need to take off your beer goggles.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-05 04:09:54

“…maybe a certain presidential candidate getting perp walked?”

Did Trump do something that bad that went unreported?

Comment by Get Stucco
2016-11-05 09:15:45

I guess Americans won’t know what was in Trump’s tax returns come election day?

Is Donald Trump a tax criminal? With so many red flags, it’s time for the government to investigate
Donald Trump is the only presidential nominee since Gerald Ford to withhold his personal tax returns.
(Evan Vucci/AP)
BY David Cay Johnston
SPECIAL TO THE NEW YORK DAILY NEWS
Wednesday, November 2, 2016, 8:00 PM

We sign our tax returns under penalty of perjury, which means that if we lie about our income or deductions we can be fined and even prosecuted.

Abundant evidence shows that the IRS and the New York State attorney general should initiate criminal investigations of Donald Trump, his charitable foundation and his personal tax returns.

Trump is the only presidential nominee since Gerald Ford to withhold his personal tax returns (and Ford released a summary). He has bragged on national television that not paying federal income tax makes him “smart.” Trump is last known to have paid federal income taxes in 1977.

While we do not have his personal returns, we do have decisions that went against Trump in two appeals he filed when auditors accused him of taking unjustified tax deductions.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 16:40:07

Venezuelans who voted for socialism, aka “redistribution of the wealth,” are now living in much-deserved distitution and will be forced to become producers, i.e. by growing their own food, if they want to eat. Truly the universe has a way of putting things right.

http://readynutrition.com/resources/venezuelans-facing-severe-food-shortages-and-malnutrition-turn-to-urban-farming_04112016/

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-04 17:06:25

Ven is not a socialist country. Dont be so easily duped. Venezuela is a Military Dictatorship.

Comment by new attitude
2016-11-04 17:27:10

so·cial·ism
ˈsōSHəˌlizəm
noun
a political and economic theory of social organization that advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 18:37:32

“The community as a whole” will never regulate anything. There are only the Comrades of Proven Worth in every socialist system who install their collectivist kleptocracies and through coersion and force “redistribute the wealth” from the productive to their own supporters, i.e. the social parasites. There is no other form of socialism on the planet.

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Comment by new attitude
2016-11-05 08:41:54

There is no other form of socialism on the planet.

 
 
 
Comment by tj
2016-11-04 17:46:54

yeah, chavez got elected and went straight to a military dictatorship, right oddie?

to the extent they’re a military dictatorship it is the result of their failure in the socialism experiment implemented by chavez. but of course the socialists (you) will always try to rewrite history..

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 18:12:59

Ven is not a socialist country. Dont be so easily duped. Venezuela is a Military Dictatorship.

Here’s a fawning 2013 puff piece from Salon about how the socialist tinhorn dictator Hugo Chavez created an “economic miracle.” Um, yeah…let’s fast forward a few years, shall we, Salon?

http://www.salon.com/2013/03/06/hugo_chavezs_economic_miracle/

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-04 16:41:49

Hillary’s MASSIVE MELTDOWN “If that f - - - ing bastard wins, we all hang from nooses!’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at2iwcQNNlY

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 16:45:58

I would’ve loved to see Screech’s volcanic temper on display as she railed at her synchophants and criminal accessories. How soon will the ships start leaving the sinking rat?

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-04 17:36:45

Secret Service agents: Hillary is a nightmare to work with

By Deroy Murdock October 2, 2015 | 8:50pm

“Good morning, ma’am,” a member of the uniformed Secret Service once greeted Hillary Clinton.

“F— off,” she replied.

“When in public, Hillary smiles and acts graciously,” Kessler explains. “As soon as the cameras are gone, her angry personality, nastiness, and imperiousness become evident.”

http://nypost.com/2015/10/02/secret-service-agents-hillary-is-a-nightmare-to-work-with/

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 18:05:22

“As soon as the cameras are gone, her angry personality, nastiness, and imperiousness become evident.”

And tens of millions of ‘Muricans, fully witting of and indifferent to Crooked Hillary’s 30-year string of scandals, influence peddling, and corruption, are fully prepared to make her their president. What a horrific statement on America’s broken moral compass.

 
Comment by new attitude
2016-11-04 18:48:53

Excellent ! we want a hardarse who drains the swamp!

Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-04 19:36:10

“You really had to see this to believe it. She came apart – literally unglued; she is the most foul-mouthed woman I’ve ever heard … and that voice at screech level … awful!”
“She screamed she’d get that f…..ing Lauer fired for this.”

And his little dog too!

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Comment by phony scandals
 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-11-05 11:27:16

we want a hardarse who drains the swamp!

She _IS_ the swamp!

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Comment by palmetto
2016-11-04 19:10:46

You’d be pretty nasty, too, if you were imbibing all those bodily fluid cocktails like Hillary and her crew do at those Spirit Cookouts, lol.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 16:44:25

I love how intrepid citizen bloggers are circumventing the Oligopoly media’s journalistic Omerta on the Clinton Crime Family and are digging up and publishing the dirt that the MSM presstitutes conspire to suppress. The Internet has finally broken the monopoly on information that allowed the Masters of the Universe to use their control of the media to disseminate The Narrative and keep 95% of the population in a state of bovine stupidity.

https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/5b6is7/no_bs_i_found_it_this_is_the_clinton_foundation/

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2016-11-04 17:18:12

The Ronettes — Be My Baby:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2g_FD_sYazk

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 18:07:21

Definitely a tune you want on your smuggled iPod in Dear Leader Clinton’s gulag for the Irredeemable Deplorables.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 18:45:42

Maybe there is hope for the Republic if enough federal law enforcement officers have the professional integrity and commitment to the public interest to want to see the law applied to everyone, even the corrupt and venal .1% who are currently a law onto themselves, i.e. Crooked Hillary.

http://www.businessinsider.com/rudy-giuliani-fbi-hillary-clinton-emails-2016-11

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-05 04:19:28

Isn’t it illegal for politicians like Giuliani to meddle in the FBI’s internal affairs for purposes of swaying an election?

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-04 18:50:44

Shoddy, defamatory reporting should result in serious consequences, but rarely does. Good to see that a jury found Rolling Stone guilty of taking a fabricator’s concocted rape tale and smearing innocent people.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/jury-finds-reporter-rolling-stone-responsible-for-defaming-u-va-dean-with-gang-rape-story/2016/11/04/aaf407fa-a1e8-11e6-a44d-cc2898cfab06_story.html

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-04 19:52:43

“Fixer Upper’ house-hunting scenes are fake, show participant claims”

http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2016/11/04/fixer-upper-house-hunting-scenes-are-fake-show-participant-claims.html

It’s a fffffffrrrrrraud. Like everything else housing related.

Comment by butters
2016-11-05 05:54:54

Rental’s wold is most likely collapsing. He tends to believe every word & statistics they throw out there. What next? FB has 14 billion daily active user?

 
 
Comment by azdude
2016-11-05 05:20:53

“when fiat becomes the source of wealth you know you are going nowhere.”

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-05 07:37:39

Do you get the feeling that the Fed and friends have inadvertently put stocks and bonds on a hair trigger, where the slightest move towards rate normalization could blow the market sky high?

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-05 07:50:37

“We will also cancel billions in global warming payments to the United Nations, and use that money to support America’s vital environmental infrastructure and natural resources,” Trump told supporters Wednesday.

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/02/trump-we-will-cancel-global-warming-payments-to-the-un/#ixzz4P97Kt4nF

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-05 11:04:01

“If that f - - - ing bastard wins, we all hang from nooses!”

HRC

 
Comment by Data
2016-11-05 12:38:42

California Poverty Rate Leads Nation

http://www.lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article

 
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