November 10, 2016

The First Domino

A report from the Real Deal on New York. “Free rent. Paid attorneys’ fees. Falling prices. It sounds like a scary flashback to the dark days of 2009. But it’s actually all happening today in different segments of New York’s residential market. After a multi-year run-up marked by prices that seemed to be on a never-ending upward trajectory, the tables have started to turn. Now, at least in many cases, it’s the buyers and renters who are holding the cards.”

“‘A year ago, it was, ‘If you want to see my property, you’re going to need an appointment,’ said Joshua Silverbush, research director for the Marketing Directors, which specializes in new development brokerage. ‘Now we’re getting invitations.’”

“The goal for sellers or landlords, of course, is to preserve the face value of their property — even if it means taking a slight financial haircut elsewhere. That’s largely because it allows them to maintain prices for the rest of their units. But these sweeteners, whether on the condo or rental side, are typically a precursor of what’s to come. ‘It’s the first domino,’ said Robert Dankner, the president of Flatiron-based brokerage Prime Manhattan Realty. ‘It usually ultimately leads to price breaks.’”

From Market Watch on Florida. “All signs lead downward for the Miami condo market. In the latest Q3 condo market statistics for the Greater Downtown Miami and the Miami Beaches, prices declined slightly by 1.4%, and all other leading indicators are soft; In other words, the market is likely to take a further hit. This has been the slowest 3rd quarter since 2009 for Miami condo sales. This latest quarter’s numbers expose a year-over-year 25% decline in condo sales volume in the Greater Downtown Miami and the Miami Beaches.”

“The rule of thumb for a balanced market in Miami is 6-12 months of inventory depending on the type and price point. If we are under 6 months, sellers are in control and prices typically go up. If we are above 12 months, buyers are in control and prices typically go sideways or down. We are currently at a whopping 24.5 months overall inventory. (Using sales pace from past 180 days, as of Oct. 24.) With this glut of inventory, it is increasingly likely that we will see more downward pressure on prices until the inventory dissipates.”

The Oklahoman. “The other day I saw a Realtor on Facebook casually describe a $200,000 home as ‘lower end.’ A Realtor in Oklahoma City. Commenting on the Oklahoma City market. She was in business mode, surely. Surely, she sells homes at the upper price points — say, $300,000 up to $1 million plus, which is the stratosphere for prices here. So maybe $200,000 is beneath her — her usual experience, at least. She knows that $200,000 isn’t really the lower end, surely.”

“Either that or, as I then posted in a snort of pique, she’s ‘completely out of touch with most of us who ‘do most of the working and paying and living and dying’ (as George Bailey put it) around here.’ But I didn’t name names on Facebook, and I’m not naming names here. It is a matter of perspective. Besides, ‘Buy all the house you can afford,’ like ’smoke ‘em if you got ‘em’ and ‘flaunt it if you’ve got it,’ are rooted in ‘those good old-fashioned values on which we used to rely’ — right?”

“Uh huh. And LORD, forgive me for quoting ‘It’s a Wonderful Life’ in one paragraph and the ‘Family Guy’ theme song in the next, even if they are great mile markers for where we’ve been and where we are in this country, as we try to figure out where we’re going. But it sparked a good Facebook thread — good in that it reminded some folks of just how good we’ve got it in Oklahoma. Because while $200,000 is above where most of us live, it actually is ‘lower end’ in some places.”

“First some actual numbers: The average price of homes sold last month in the Oklahoma City area was $183,154, down from $190,429 in September 2015; and the median price was $156,450, down from $160,000, according to the Okahoma City Metro Association of Realtors.”

“Now, the ‘lower end’? A California friend, T.R., responded: ‘Oh honey. $200k.’ Me: ‘Right? LOL what’ll that getcha where you are?’ T.R.: ‘Our house in Ventura is a 2br built in 1926. 1300sf, nothing updated since the 70s, needed new wiring and plumbing and the foundation bolted. And it’s still on septic, and will need to be connected to city sewer when the tank finally goes. We paid $369k.’”

“Me: ‘A few years ago, and at 52 what I mean by that is ‘10,’ some folks made some ado about the reverse migration of Okies coming back here from the Central Valley and environs — or their retirement-age children and grandchildren. They came in here with California housing dollars and, well, bought large!’”

“T.R.: ‘Yeah that’s happening all over the west, I think.’”

“Me: (Tagging T.T.), T.T., what’ll $200,000 get you, housewise, in Maplewood, N.J.? Hee hee. T.T.: ‘In Maplewood, $200k will get you a house in Irvington (high crime area).’ A.C.: ‘Out here in Colorado, that is a lower-end home. Can’t even find a condo less than $200,000. Denver metro. We’re hoping to buy a town home in the next year or so, but our budget will be under $250,000.’”

“Me: ‘R.M., check in from Brooklyn.’ R.M.: ‘Well, this is Zillow’s estimate on the value of my 575 sq ft apartment: $837,110. We do not own it. Prices are crazy here.’ Me: ‘OMG.’”

“H.M. (in Oklahoma City): ‘It’s stunning to me that a ’starter home’ is $140k these days.’ D.A.: ‘$200,000 is cheap now here in the Twin Cities. ‘Affordable housing’ is an oxymoron.’ S.L. (in Oklahoma City): ‘I guess I’m living in poverty and blight. Insulting as hell.’”

“So there you go, some experience to go with home price stats, which are all over the map literally and figuratively, although clustered closer to everyday reality in Oklahoma. Here, $200,000 most certainly is not ‘lower end.’”




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192 Comments »

Comment by Apartment 401
2016-11-10 09:02:46

Realtors are liars.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-10 09:50:09

‘The average price of homes sold last month in the Oklahoma City area was $183,154, down from $190,429 in September 2015; and the median price was $156,450, down from $160,000, according to the Okahoma City Metro Association of Realtors.’

‘Now, the ‘lower end’? A California friend, T.R., responded: ‘Oh honey. $200k.’ Me: ‘Right? LOL what’ll that getcha where you are?’ T.R.: ‘Our house in Ventura is a 2br built in 1926. 1300sf, nothing updated since the 70s, needed new wiring and plumbing and the foundation bolted. And it’s still on septic, and will need to be connected to city sewer when the tank finally goes. We paid $369k.’

Some one called me yesterday and suggested the term sad pandemonium.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-10 09:52:38

Trump victory bursts Silicon Valley bubble

A comment:

‘If you are a wealthy elite, you are likely to be like Warren Buffet - there is a social benefit to being seen as “kind” and tolerant, to wanting to pay more in taxes, to wanting more open immigration policies - “everyone is worthy of opportunity” you can say . . . BECAUSE you have the resources to build your own walls . . . You do not live in an area with a violent crime problem . . . You do not have to deal with crime or bad schools for your kids . . . In essence, you can afford to be nice, becasue you have wealth and it is a “trendy” way to try to pretend to understand the struggles of the less fortunate . . . But you are really “tolerating” the hollowing out of the middle class - the “other America” is being destroyed and you only want to be SEEN as caring . . . So you pander to “minorities” and support “open borders” and the rights of transgender people, or whatever is “cutting edge” in terms of what society deems acceptable . . . The “problems” of the “other America” are of no concern to you - until the situation gets so bad that a rebuke to your arrogance is delivered in a Presidential election . . . Did you learn anything? Probably not . . . But the issues that brought Trump to power are not going away - better hope your wealth can buy you solace . . .’

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 10:02:49

A fellow went looking for Hell.

Guess what he found?

Earth.

BTW, why doesn’t Earth have a cool name like the rest of the planets in our solar system?

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-10 10:23:56

They were named after gods.

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Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 10:27:58

I know that, but we gave all these awesome god-names to the other planets and called our dirt-ball “Earth”. Couldn’t we have called the planet Apollo? Zeus?

Heck, why not Hades?

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 11:05:40

Hades is not flat, it’s round.

 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 15:45:17

No planet is named Krishna. Racists…every one of them.

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-10 10:33:08

Because all the gods lived up in the sky. This here place is just the ground.

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Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 11:04:29

Really? Well, shoot. I thought we wuz gods.

 
 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2016-11-10 11:10:13

G A I A !!!!!!

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Comment by snake charmer
2016-11-10 12:33:38

“At midnight in Washington, as Donald Trump’s victory became inevitable, the French ambassador to the US sent out a tweet. ‘It is the end of an era,’ he declared, ‘that of neoliberalism.’

‘It remains to be seen what will succeed it,’ Gérard Araud added. ‘After Brexit and this election, everything is now possible. A world is collapsing before our eyes.’

Those sweeping observations were later deleted.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/09/donald-trump-presidency-global-reactions-trade-deals

Comment by Karen
2016-11-10 12:46:06

A world is collapsing before our eyes

Couldn’t have happened to a nicer group of folks

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 18:38:11

The 99% who have been screwed over by globalism are finally pushing back.

 
 
 
Comment by Karen
2016-11-10 12:36:37

a rebuke to your arrogance is delivered in a Presidential election . . .

That pretty much sums it up.

I’ve had conversations like the commenter describes with these sorts of limousine-liberals, and you cannot get through to them at all. Under the guise of empathy, and caring, and community, and social justice, and all these other terms they like to throw around, they are supporting policies that destroy the rest of America. And they feel that somehow they will escape the consequences.

Comment by snake charmer
2016-11-10 13:15:52

With respect to empathy and the left, it bothers me that the emotion clearly does not extend to … the exact type of economically distressed people in the Rust Belt who ended up carrying Trump to victory. Funny how that worked out.

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Comment by King Dollar
2016-11-10 15:41:02

Theyre all so empathetic…. Until they’ve gotta get their wallet out.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 18:40:08

Yeah…Hillary and all her talk of “investments” to fix all our ills…all paid for by taxes on the middle class diverted to companies run by DNC donors and Clinton cronies. So generous of her….

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 18:34:00

The “problems” of the “other America” are of no concern to you - until the situation gets so bad that a rebuke to your arrogance is delivered in a Presidential election . . . Did you learn anything? Probably not….

The mobs with pitchforks and torches may have been deferred, but I suspect they’re still coming at some point.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-10 09:55:00

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
NasdaqGS 732.96-38.92 (-5.04%)

http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN?p=AMZN

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 10:08:08

Did someone say Amazon?

Wha’ hoppen?

http://i2.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article3388857.ece/ALTERNATES/s1200/Aleksandr-Orlov–Compare-the-Meerkat.jpg

https://twitter.com/JeffBezos?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Aw, geez, so that’s what it was all about. He was jealous of the hair.

Pro Tip: Bosley

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 10:36:01

“Congratulations to @realDonaldTrump. I for one give him my most open mind and wish him great success in his service to the country.”

Jeff, Jeff, I got my hip waders on, I’m comin’ ta getcha, bro’. Hang on, I’m comin’ ta getcha!

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 11:58:58

Uh-oh, Jeff, Donald isn’t answering your tweet.

Maybe you could get WaPo to give him a big wet smooch? Shouldn’t be a problem. Whaddya say?

Oh, yeah, I fergot, independent journalism and all.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 18:42:33

Remember that awesome “F**ked Company” website that chronicled the collapse of the tech bubble companies and their stocks? That needs to be resurrected.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-10/nasdaq-plunges-fang-freefall-erases-post-trump-gain

Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2016-11-10 21:43:55

The author (Pud) is now friends with people from those companies and involved in the tech scene so he won’t.

Someone else will have to build one.

His business model was build a database, let people populate it for free, charge for access. Classmates.com style.

 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 10:31:05

Lots of sad underpants in the MSM these days.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-10 10:36:16

Sad Panderers.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-10 10:42:34

Speaking of, where’s Rio? First the Brazil bubble pops on his shanty, they are going to lock up his former Presidente, and now the clown car has steamrolled Clinton. He must be inconsolable.

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 11:12:52

What happened? I thought you sent him money to get out of Brazil. What’d you do, lose track of him after that?

 
Comment by snake charmer
2016-11-10 12:25:45

I would like for Rio to return to posting here, even though I did not always agree with him.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-10 16:49:19

and whys that

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 18:45:11

I liked Rio. Didn’t always agree with him, but he could at least make a cogent case for believing as he did, instead of spewing dogmatic drivel like certain other posters wedded to their pet ideologies.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-10 19:23:42

Lola got owned one too many times.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2016-11-10 12:25:12

“A happy lasting result of the election is the complete discrediting of the US media.  The media predicted an easy Hillary victory and even Democratic Party control of the US Senate.  Even more important to the media’s loss of influence and credibility, despite the vicious media attack on Trump throughout the presidential primaries and presidential campaign, the media had no effect outside the Northeast and West coasts, the stomping grounds of the One Percent.  The rest of the country ignored the media.”

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/11/09/the-working-class-won-the-election/

Comment by Karen
2016-11-10 12:38:53

I haven’t watched a newscast in 20 years.

Comment by rms
2016-11-10 21:14:03

+1 Kudos.

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Comment by Vineet
2016-11-10 16:37:35

The Media. They didn’t score very well on the housing bubble way back in 2006 either .. so many experts and yet so wrong.

Comment by rms
2016-11-10 21:16:17

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” —Mark Twain

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Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-10 10:35:30

I just got an invite to this:

“The MacArthur-supported How Housing Matters Conference, hosted by the National Housing Conference, brings together practitioners from different sectors to explore ways in which housing is a platform for achieving positive outcomes in health, education, and economic opportunity. The 2016 conference will focus on cross-sector collaboration, using housing as a foundation for affecting real change for real people. Watch this video to learn more about this year’s conference theme.”

December 13, 2016
Washington D.C.

Should I RSVP?

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 10:49:44

“Should I RSVP?”

Only if all expenses are paid. And you can pull off a James O’Keefe undercover vid.

Say, one thing I learned during this election cycle is what a great racket this “foundation” stuff is. I’m thinking of starting one of my own. I was gonna call it the “Open Societies Foundation”, but Boy George already has that one locked up. Dang. What to do, what to do….

I’ve got it! How about the “Open Sores Foundation”? Do you think people will get the reference?

Comment by redmondjp
2016-11-10 11:13:25

That name is all kinds of awesome!

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 11:28:37

Somebody gets it!

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Comment by Overbanked
2016-11-10 14:47:37

Doctor Josh U.A. Tree, Esquire would seem to be appropriate.

 
 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2016-11-10 12:22:48

Here’s a description of one of the panels:

Speakers will shed light on best practices in housing-based educational enrichment and afterschool programming which address factors that contribute to educational disparity. The panel will also explore for the need for engagement between housing providers and developers, and educational organizations, to start community conversations on cross-sector approaches to education reform and address entrenched issues that result in educational inequity such as school segregation.

Wow, they musta gone to collige with the elitist multisyllable horsesh!t. And they wonder why they lost.

That said, I don’t know if there’s a way to solve the affordable housing problem. I don’t agree that simply shutting off the spigot of gov money will drop the price of land to make affordable housing pencil out on its own. There just isn’t enough yield to be attractive. More likely, private sector will simply sit it out and move on to something else. Section 8 and spreading the poor out over the middle-class suburbs will just ruin the middle class suburbs. It takes only one. Maybe the only solution is to go back to “the projects,” only this time with some serious tough love.

Comment by Karen
2016-11-10 13:02:54

There are a lot of entrenched interests in real estate, and it goes far beyond the usual suspects we mostly write about here (realtors, debt donkeys, too-big-to-fail banks, etc.)

When I lived in Massachusetts I had some run-ins with the local “affordable housing” agency and wondered who I could complain to about them. These are people who talk about ‘community’ but behave like the Mafia.

Problem is, they are not exactly a government agency, so it wasn’t real clear who I would reach out to. In my search, I googled phrases such as Massachusetts affordable housing, Massachusetts housing agencies, Massachusetts housing authorities, etc.

I simply could not believe the number of results I got, and I marveled at the amount of money and energy that went into this. It’s all public-private partnerships, the “necessity” for which was created by the housing bubble.

Federal entities, state entities, county and city level entities, the list just went on and on. Aside from the ones we post about here (Fannie, Freddie, HUD) there are various regional housing authorities, community action committees, housing and planning associations, community economic assistance development corporations, housing partnership funds, housing rehabilitation commissions, the USDA, and on and on.

This is part of the swamp that needs to be drained.

Comment by taxpayers
2016-11-10 14:37:49

+1
Remember 20% of gov workers r quitting so to trump

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Comment by taxpayers
2016-11-10 14:38:54

+1
Remember 20% of gov workers r quitting do to trump

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Comment by oxide
2016-11-10 14:47:11

Thank you for that, Karen. While people don’t like government takeovers, *anything* has to be better than this slow bleed of taxpayer money which accomplishes nothing except make people fat on hotel donuts.

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Comment by Vineet
2016-11-10 16:41:29

Federal entities, state entities, county and city level entities, the list just went on and on. ”

And who exactly builds the houses ?

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-10 16:59:22

Not realtors. They’re too helpless and lazy.
Not appraisers…. You know those guys can’t be trusted any more than realtors.

Not mortgage pimps.

But with 25 million excess empty houses out there…. who cares?

 
Comment by oxide
2016-11-10 19:40:14

I would imagine eventually these authorities and associations and commissions — in part paid with taxpayer money — stop jawboning at conferences and manage to wrestle some more taxpayer money to hire some company in cahoots to build some housing. The company in cahoots hires a crapload of illegals to slap up any old thing.

After much fanfare and ribbon-cutting and white guilt photo ops, the poor move into the houses, the houses fall apart, the LL does nothing, and the place turns into a slum. At which point the authorities and associations and commission come begging for more money to rebuild and restore. Rinse and repeat.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-10 19:49:59

Quite an imagination Donk. In the meantime millions of contractors continue to construct for a fraction of the cost of your associations.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Karen
2016-11-10 12:42:02

Should I RSVP?

Ask if you can bring a few friends :)

 
 
Comment by jerzdebil
2016-11-10 10:36:13

I just became aware of this guy’s videos a few weeks ago, definitely a voice for freedom

The Legacy Media is Dying, The Decentralized, International Press Is Rising
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTTiGOHW3L4

Be nice to see the lying press that has pimped themselves for every globalist totalitarian and insane asset bubble over the last 2 decades get their own bubble burst.

Burn it down!

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-10 10:44:29

“First some actual numbers: The average price of homes sold last month in the Oklahoma City area was $183,154, down from $190,429 in September 2015; and the median price was $156,450, down from $160,000, according to the Okahoma City Metro Association of Realtors.”

Tornado Alley special!

 
Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 11:10:31

LOL, gotta love ZH, “Orange is the New Black” caption contest!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-10/caption-contest-orange-new-black

Best one so far:

TRUMP: I said ‘Pull My Finger.’

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-10 21:26:11

That’s gross.

 
 
Comment by redmondjp
2016-11-10 11:20:16

Those WTO Protesters, er I mean, Occupy Wall St, um, no, wait, now Black Lives Matter, er, Socialist Alternatives will never give up.

As long as George keeps sending them their checks, they will be out there doing their thing. Heck, that is how they make a living, if you can call it that!

My high school guidance counselors never clued me in that one could be a professional protester!

They were out in full force in Freattle last night.

Comment by palmetto
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2016-11-10 12:08:10

GAIA!!!

 
 
Comment by oxide
2016-11-10 12:41:19

I’m not too worried about Trump. The real snakes are going to be Ryan and McConnell. For years, the GOP has been waiting for a Republican Congress and President so that they can ram through their laundry list of “business-friendly” legislation.

In other words, they want to contract out prisons, education, Medicare, Social Security, etc to private companies, who of course will cut corners and take a fat skim. Such measures will deeply hurt the very people who voted for Trump.

Comment by Blue Skye
2016-11-10 16:17:28

Doesn’t sound like anything that would create jobs.

 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 16:28:42

Good point. You would hope that Trump privately demands Ryan’s and McConnell’s resignations. If I were Trump, I would do all I can, of course privately, to thin the cuckservatives from position of power. They are the wall between him and the “forgotten men.”

Comment by butters
2016-11-10 16:56:36

And the first to go has to be Yellon and her fellons.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 18:58:12

+1000. The Fed since its inception has been the oligarchy’s chief instrument of plunder against the 99%. Ron Paul tried to wake up the sheeple to its scams and swindles, but failed. How Trump deals with the Fed will be a litmus test of whether he’s the real deal or just another flimflam man selling hope n’ change in new bottles.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 18:55:43

Private prison stocks soared after Trump was elected. That’s a red flag. The prison-industrial complex is a national disgrace and should not be a “for-profit” enterprise - already unscrupulous judges and defense attorneys have been convicted for essentially funneling young men with trivial offenses into these slave labor centers.

http://finance.yahoo.com/m/e985502a-d554-3b3b-b70b-4cea0495929e/ss_prison-stocks-soar-following.html

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-10 23:15:18

“That’s a red flag.”

There are a lot more of those to come…

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Comment by ahansen
2016-11-11 01:33:37

Seriously. This guy is a real estate developer, remember? Who wants Jaimie Dimon as his Secretary of Treasury. And want to build “fabulous housing for all our ‘inner cities’”.

Wonder who will get the contracts?

 
Comment by Michael Viking
2016-11-11 07:21:32

Wonder who will get the contracts?

We can be sure if your corrupt, scheming, evil, irredeemable loser had won it would be the Clinton Foundation.

Maybe you can go stand in a freeway or go cause some fight at a rally to make yourself feel better? Maybe you can go smash some windows and loot. Maybe you can let in some muslim refugees who hate our way of life, murder homosexuals and treat their women like chattel so you can feel impressively good about how tolerant you are! God knows you don’t show your tolerance for Republicans of any sort.

I’ve never seen a more pathetic group of poor losers in my life. I guess since you all got trophies all your life you don’t know how to lose? Maybe you all listened to the ugly duckling story so much that you think you grew up to be beautiful swans who know everything and are better than all the ducks. The reality is that you grew up to be ugly ducks, not swans.

And I’ll take a real estate developer who’s put together a lot of deals under budget and before the due date (see for example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wollman_Rink) any day over a stupid community organizer. Jeebus. What the F has a community organizer ever done?

All of you holier than thou elites can have my Meddel Finger!

Sorry for the rant, Ben…

 
Comment by tj
2016-11-11 08:07:58

well said!

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 11:27:12

Oh, man, what an epic trolling. Force Jamie Dimon to sniff with disdain “I’m not interested”. Like the epic trolling of Kasich with the Veep post.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-10/trump-said-consider-jamie-dimon-treasury-secretary

I didn’t realize until Wikileaks came out that this stuff was gamesmanship. Shame on me for taking it seriously.

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 11:51:14

Not replying to, but adding to my post. I didn’t realize until election night what the Pence veep pick was all about. I thought it was just some dumb deal he made to get the nomination. I even wrote about it, pompously and extensively, here on the blog.

And then on election night I saw Indiana one of the first out of the gate to go for Trump. Needless to say, I slammed my forehead.

Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-10 12:12:45

Reading the comments here the past few months I was reminded of the power of self doubt. In high school I played offensive guard on the football team. We had a rough start to the year and mid season the tackle position next to me had a few guys go down to injury. There was this guy Mike who had been in the school band and decided at the last minute to try out for the team his senior year. He wasn’t a great athlete, but he tried hard and never really expected to play. So this game comes up and we’ve got no one else to play that position and Mike had to start. We warmed up and just before the game starts he comes up to me and kinda starts to lose it, saying he can’t do it, he’ll lose the game, that sort of thing. I don’t know what came over me but I grabbed him by the jersey and told him to get his sh*t together because we were gonna go out there and stomp these guys. We beat them 6 touchdowns to nothing. Mike was a hero to the band, and he and I were always good friends. We never talked about what happened.

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 12:26:07

“I don’t know what came over me but I grabbed him by the jersey and told him to get his sh*t together because we were gonna go out there and stomp these guys.”

No kidding. I’ve been on the receiving end of a Ben Jones “get yer head out of yer arse” pep talk. It works.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-10 12:29:39

That’s a great story. Thank you.

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Comment by taxpayers
2016-11-10 13:52:44

kewl tale

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Comment by Carl Morris
2016-11-10 23:19:34

That’s awesome. Reminds me of incidents that sometimes happened when I was in the 101st ABN DIV band.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2016-11-10 12:12:46

He won by taking the Midwest. My guess is that Pence helped far more than he hurt in that region.

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 12:19:51

“My guess”

Not a guess. Pence turns out to have been way more of an asset than I had thought.

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Comment by butters
2016-11-10 17:12:51

Defacto president. Trump will get bored in a month and hit the golf course for 4 years.

 
 
 
 
Comment by SW
2016-11-10 15:06:50

Palm, what do you mean by gamesmanship? Is trump mocking dimon?

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 16:10:15

Yes.

Comment by palmetto
2016-11-10 17:05:20

Well, let me elaborate, SW. It’s not so much “mocking” as it is “trolling”. And not just trolling Dimon, but it would certainly bring out the folks who would say “Oooh, look, look, your savior offered the Treasury gig to Dimon, toldya, meet the new boss, same as the old boss”.

It creates chatter, it creates controversy, it creates attention. Also it’s a bit of a magician’s trick, a misdirection and deflection of attention from what he’s really up to. In the Wikileaks, there was an email where the Hillary campaign was totally taken off guard by the Pence pick. Didn’t see it coming. Neither did most of the deplorable base. Including me.

If you’ve been following any of the drama of his campaign, he put on quite a show. Everyone was being “vetted”, Joni Ernst, Newt Gingrich, Chris Christie, Mike Flynn and a few others I can’t remember. All the posters on reddit were in a tizzy with speculation. Pence was not on anyone’s radar. And just before he made the decision, he made some public appearances with Newt and Christie and Bob Corker and Flynn, like he was showing off his picks to see how they were received. And still, Pence was not on the radar.

Two days before he made his decision, all of a sudden he has a family gathering that includes Pence. The next day, Pence is on his way to NY. The day after, it gets announced.

And once again, I fell for the whole troll, believing the “leaked” stories that Trump didn’t want this, Manafort forced it on him to appease the RNC, there was family drama over it, Trump tried to back out of the decision, etc. All BS, and I didn’t realize it until election night. Afterwards came the Kasich “leaks”, that he’d offered the position to Kasich who turned him down. He went as far as having his son Don, Jr. call and have a discussion with an aide to Kasich. That’s as far as it went.

It would have been fun (only in theory) to see Dimon call his bluff, though.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 19:02:26

I will very rapidly lose faith in Trump if he keeps offering positions like Treasury to known grifters like Jamie Dimon. Hey Trump, “drain the swamp,” remember?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-10 23:19:09

“…if he keeps offering positions…”

How about to ex-beauty pageant contestants?

Donald Trump’s Potential Cabinet Includes Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich

Us Weekly‎ - 7 hours ago

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2016-11-10 13:55:31

INdy even ACA cost went down
my ticket would be PEe/Mitch Danels

 
Comment by the spider monkey
2016-11-10 16:20:33
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 19:03:35

If banks start getting slapped with $5K a month fines for vacant houses, they might start getting serious about getting them off their books.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 19:28:54

You need to re-read that article. Vancouver just slapped a fine of ten thousand Canadian dollars A DAY on vacant houses! Oh dear…Chinese embezzlers and speculators aren’t going to like this one bit. Paying attention, San Francisco?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-09/vancouver-wields-c-10-000-a-day-fine-in-crackdown-on-empty-homes

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2016-11-11 11:15:35

The tax is only assessed PER DAY if you make a false report that a vacant house is occupied in order to avoid the PER YEAR tax.

 
 
 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 16:22:29

If you can’t trust polls, how can you trust Obama’s approval ratings?

RIGGED RIGGED RIGGED just like this country’s stawks.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-10 16:29:52

Like housing, mortgages, etc

 
Comment by azdude
2016-11-10 16:32:50

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNi1hKi9Z5c

The real deplorables come out and whine about trump win. Losers

 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 16:48:31

Have to ask - what does the Iowa Electronic Market say about that?

Comment by butters
2016-11-10 17:18:45
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-10 23:20:58

That’s because Hillary won the popular vote.

As Donald Trump correctly tweeted, the Electoral College vote is rigged.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2016-11-11 00:28:47

The electoral college works exactly as it was designed.

We are both a state and population based democracy.

The House of Representatives is based on population.
The Senate is based on states.
The presidential election is a mixture of both.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-11 01:25:05

Donald J. Trump Verified account
‏@realDonaldTrump

The electoral college is a disaster for a democracy.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 16:31:49

If you are a Hillary supporter and on Soros’ payroll, how would you rather do?

Sign the petition below or hit the street?

https://www.change.org/p/electoral-college-electors-electoral-college-make-hillary-clinton-president-on-december-19

 
Comment by azdude
2016-11-10 16:41:03

Can trump reign in the debt and the free sh@t army?

Without credit created out of thin air half the country will be in soup lines again.

We need sound money again.

I went into some new homes over the weekend and just had to laugh at the prices.

400k for 2300 ^2 feet. Of course the model homes were decked out with 50k in upgrades. I asked what the avg smuck gets in upgrades and they said 25k. Just absurd. I’m sure the money to grant these loans is created out of thin air too. Must be nice to enslave people.

Comment by oxide
2016-11-10 19:12:22

A lot or Trump voters *are* the free sh!t army. Lots of food stamps, disability, farm subsidies…

 
 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 16:45:45

Why do dems care about minorities so much? Wouldn’t it be politically wise to care majority and minority equally?

 
Comment by Vineet
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 17:08:46

Even if he does half from the list, he will go down as the best president ever. NAGA = Not Going to Happen

* FIRST, propose a Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress;

* SECOND, a hiring freeze on all federal employees to reduce federal workforce through attrition (exempting military, public safety, and public health);

* THIRD, a requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated;

* FOURTH, a 5 year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service;
WATCH: Hillary Clinton Concedes Presidential Race To Donald Trump
Politics
WATCH: Hillary Clinton Concedes Presidential Race To Donald Trump

* FIFTH, a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government;

* SIXTH, a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.

On the same day, I will begin taking the following 7 actions to protect American workers:

* FIRST, I will announce my intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205

* SECOND, I will announce our withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership

* THIRD, I will direct my Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator

* FOURTH, I will direct the Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and direct them to use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately
WATCH: President Obama On Trump Win, Clinton Loss
Politics
WATCH: President Obama On Trump Win, Clinton Loss

* FIFTH, I will lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars’ worth of job-producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal.

* SIXTH, lift the Obama-Clinton roadblocks and allow vital energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline, to move forward

* SEVENTH, cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America’s water and environmental infrastructure

Additionally, on the first day, I will take the following five actions to restore security and the constitutional rule of law:

* FIRST, cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama

* SECOND, begin the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia from one of the 20 judges on my list, who will uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States

* THIRD, cancel all federal funding to Sanctuary Cities

* FOURTH, begin removing the more than 2 million criminal illegal immigrants from the country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won’t take them back

* FIFTH, suspend immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur. All vetting of people coming into our country will be considered extreme vetting.

Comment by butters
2016-11-10 17:52:36

Forget half. 1/4th would be great as well.

 
Comment by tj
2016-11-10 18:35:15

term limits.

one term in the senate.. six years

three terms in the house.. six years

??

then out of federal government forever except to run for president?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-10 21:36:44

Federal employment has shrunk or gone sideways since maxing out in Ronald Reagan’s time in office, including during Obama’s presidency.

Real Time Economics
The Federal Government Now Employs the Fewest People Since 1966
By Josh Zumbrun
Nov 7, 2014 12:03 pm ET
The federal government now employs the fewest people since the mid-1960s.
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Given the grinding budget battles of recent years, it’s almost hard to believe the federal government now employs the fewest people since the mid-1960s. Yet according to Friday’s jobs report, the federal government now employs 2,711,000 people (excluding non-civilian military). Among the economy’s largest job sectors, it was the only one to shrink over the past year.

Not since July 1966 has the federal government’s workforce been so small. (The spikes every decade are the hiring of several hundred thousand temporary workers to conduct the census.) Federal government hiring climbed in the 1960s, moved sideways in the 1970s, climbed to the highest level ever outside of a census in the 1980s, declined in the 1990s and then again held steady for most of the 2000s.

Federal employment initially rose during the recession and climbed further in 2009 and 2010 with the stimulus package (and, again, the especially sharp spike for the census). The federal government has since shed about 200,000 jobs.

Comment by Carl Morris
2016-11-10 23:28:42

Is contracting hiding a bunch of them as it does for military numbers?

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Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-10 23:31:25

Good point.

However, contractors are good, because they are private sector workers.

According to Republican gospel, all private sector workers, even including Realtwhores, are better than all government workers.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-10 17:13:48

We don’t honor npr links.

 
 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 16:55:01

Nostradamus on this blog said Trump would be gone by Thanksgiving 2015.

Then there’s DailyKos’ election forecast, which currently gives Trump a 13 percent chance of winning the election.

The Huffington Post’s election forecast, which is by far the most confident in a Hillary Clinton victory. They give Donald Trump just a 1.3 percent chance of becoming president, the lowest of any major forecast.

FiveThirtyEight currently gives Trump a 34.5 percent chance of winning the election.

Another prominent election forecaster is The New York Times’ The Upshot, and they’re much more certain of a Hillary Clinton victory than FiveThirtyEight. According to their model, Donald Trump only has a 16 percent chance of becoming the next president.

Next up is PredictWise, which using a combination of prediction markets and polling data to calculate the two candidates’ odds of winning. They currently forecast that Donald Trump has a 13 percent chance of victory.

 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 17:03:17

Trump’s 11/9 win is the new 911.

Comment by Carl Morris
2016-11-10 23:31:18

911 Porsche?

 
 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 17:04:30

PAUL KRUGMAN, 12:42 AM ELECTION NIGHT: “If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.”

Comment by Karen
2016-11-10 17:20:43

PAUL KRUGMAN, 12:42 AM ELECTION NIGHT: “If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.” ?

NassimNicholasTaleb
‏@nntaleb
Who got burried?
Saudi Barbaria
Goldman Sacks
Syrian Jihadis aka “rebels”
Academic Economists w/PseudoNobel
NYT & other bullshit venues.

Comment by butters
2016-11-10 17:35:14

Bullshit venues….LOL

So gonna steal it.

 
Comment by Karen
2016-11-10 17:36:20

I forgot to bold

NYT & other bullshit venues — that applies to Krugman as well

He got double-dissed

Comment by butters
2016-11-10 17:47:59

I don’t think Krugman gets it. He probably thinks it’s a compliment.

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Comment by butters
2016-11-10 17:31:19

I am little ill and staying home today. I am watching PBS’ election night coverage on youtube. If you wanna laugh, here’s the link.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lL-gicgoCAY

Comment by butters
2016-11-10 17:43:52

2:50 mark is when the truth starts to sink in…..Suddenly they start insinuating racism and other usual democratic canned responses.

 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 17:54:29

3:08 mark - they are stumbling and showing their displeasure.

Comment by butters
2016-11-10 18:26:46

3:48 Kris Kobach drops some truths. The hosts stumble a little.

Never knew who Kris Kobach was….why isn’t he in national scene?

 
 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 18:10:20

3:30 mark - not a word yet on hillry’s frauds/gafts/emails, etc.

Comment by butters
2016-11-10 18:12:53

Also it’s the 50/50 election now. Before this….it was forgone conclusion that Hillry would win.

 
 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 18:18:41

3:42 mark - Trump has proven not to be an albatross for the senate and rep elections.

Obama has 62% approval rating. LOL

 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 18:32:34

3:53 mark - it’s getting interesting…they are starting to say the “R” word…racist white voters that is.

 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 18:34:15

3:55 mark - Dow drops 400 or 500 points. Long and red faces abound.

 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 18:37:28

4:02 mark - they are starting to blame polls

 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 18:41:24

4:07 mark - Mark Shields (?) getting angry about Dem outreach to LGBT (less than 5%) while ignoring working whites (40%)

 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 18:46:56

4:10 mark - Jesus…the moral bankruptcy of the demoRATS. Jennifer Granholm is still holding on to, not convincingly I might add, Arab and Latino votes in Michigan. How many are there anyway?

 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 18:52:34

Oh, OH is white state, now? Did all the blacks & hispanics left ohio in last 4 years?

 
 
Comment by azdude
2016-11-10 17:33:41

keep your credit score high so you can beg for a loan from your masters.

 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 17:46:01

Arizona just awarded to Trump. He’s 4 or 5 percent ahead. Why this late?

Narratives for next election has to be built one day at a time.

 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 17:49:27

Rise of fascists and it’s not Trump

Grubhub CEO Matt Maloney Tells Employees Who Support Trump To Resign.

 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 17:57:20

Are sad pandas behind this?

TWITTER Erupts With Assassination Threats…

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 19:23:16

The precious snowflakes who post these threats aren’t going to like our federal pennitentary system, or being told that Jesus loves them when he’s their MS-13 cellmate.

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-10 18:09:07

The MSM and President Obama should be all over this any second now.

SHOCK VIDEO: BLACK MOB VICIOUSLY BEATS WHITE TRUMP VOTER
“You voted Trump? You gonna pay for that shit!”

Paul Joseph Watson - NOVEMBER 10, 2016 9285 Comments

http://www.infowars.com/shock-video-black-mob-viciously-beats-white-trump-voter/

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 19:08:19

The media will call this a “fight.” Implying the “Trump voter” - he’s an older white male, so he had to be a Trump voter, right? - instigated it.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2016-11-10 19:27:42

Evidently this African American is not aware that the Black Community has lost hundreds of thousands of unskilled jobs to illegal immigrants, in agriculture and low-skill service economy. It’s entirely possible that the coastal elites were hurting blacks more than Trump ever will.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 19:35:33

You really think they care? Any excuse to go out and smash and grab works just fine.

 
Comment by Karen
2016-11-10 21:29:12

The black community lost hundreds of thousands of jobs in agriculture to illegal immigrants?

Ask any of them if they’d like those jobs back.

 
 
Comment by rms
2016-11-10 21:55:53

Will the police there investigate?

 
 
Comment by butters
2016-11-10 18:20:00

Trump killed bushes and clintons once in for all.

Will he kill the love child of bushes and clintons, aka NAFTA?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 19:19:29

Let’s see what he does about the neocon wars that are bleeding us dry.

Comment by rms
2016-11-10 22:06:46

Are the deplorables still waiting for Jesus’ return?

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 19:10:16

Oh dear…this doesn’t fit the “Everything is Awesome!” meme the MSM was extolling up until we learned Trump would be our next president.

http://wolfstreet.com/2016/11/10/whats-going-on-with-foreclosures-spike-fha-va-mortgages/

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 19:18:28

Foreclosures suddenly spike most since the last Housing Bust

The total number of homes with foreclosure filings jumped 27% in October from September, when they’d been at the lowest level since 2006. It was the biggest jump in monthly foreclosure filings since August 2007.

Compared to October last year, homes with foreclosure filings still decreased, but this nationwide decrease is covering up what is now happening in 28 states and Washington D.C., according to the Foreclosure Report by ATTOM Data Solutions. There, the inventory of homes with foreclosure filings is beginning to rise even on a year-over year basis. And in some states it soared year-over-year:

Colorado +64%
Georgia +22%
Pennsylvania +20%
Arizona +17%
Virginia +15%
Massachusetts +11%
New York +10%

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2016-11-10 19:46:47

Let’s get rid of these foreclosure moratoriums and unclog the moribund housing market.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Karen
2016-11-10 21:40:15

It’s a badge of honor

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 19:14:38

Are NFL ratings plummeting because The Sheeple are finally waking up and turning off their TeeVee bread and circuses?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/sports/football/nfl-tv-ratings-shorter-games-fewer-commercials.html?_r=0

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 19:17:03

Remember that Eurozone financial crisis that was “contained” by our wise and illustrous Keynesian central bankers and their QE-to-Infinity?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-10/italian-french-bonds-feel-pain-in-europe-as-rout-spreads-chart

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 19:25:28

Trump’s win didn’t “shatter” the Democratic Party. Being corrupt toadies of their oligarch donors run by unscrupulous political hacks like Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and Donna Brazille had corroded that evil party from within long before Trump ever came along.

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-democratic-party-2016-11

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 19:33:55

Michael Moore is the rarest of the rare: a somewhat principled liberal Democrat. He predicted Trump’s win as the forgotten American’s middle finger to our arrogant, out-of-touch political elites, and now he’s blasting the Democrats for failing what should’ve been their traditional constituency.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-10/democrats-failed-us-miserably-michael-moore-unleashes-post-election-do-list

Comment by Carl Morris
2016-11-10 23:36:25

Yeah, I was a fan back in the Roger and Me days…it warms my heart to see him return to his roots.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-10 20:05:36

Financial Times

Sign In

The Financial Times
US economic recovery
Trump’s economic policy explained: the era of fiscal restraint is over
Untangling contradictions and discerning real priorities is going to be fraught
Donald Trump is faced with challenges involving infrastructure spending, fiscal policy, trade deals and the Federal Reserve
8 hours ago
by: Sam Fleming and Shawn Donnan in Washington

As Donald Trump prepares for the White House, a theme is beginning to emerge: the era of fiscal restraint in the US could be coming to an end.

Mr Trump was scathing during the campaign about the increases in US national debt under Barack Obama, and the businessman at one point claimed implausibly that he would pay the entire $19tn stock off in eight years.

Yet as bond markets have been recognising over the past 48 hours, by prioritising tax cuts and an infrastructure package for the first 100 days of the Trump administration, his team appears to be envisaging a stimulus programme that comes at a time when the US is already close to full employment. That could mean not only higher growth, but quicker inflation.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-10 22:06:23

Trump stock-market rally reflects expectations for new era of fiscal stimulus
Published: Nov 10, 2016 5:37 p.m. ET
Traders lift stocks, slam bonds on hopes for expansionary policy
AFP/Getty Images
Time to shatter the debt ceiling?
By William Watts
Deputy markets editor

Republican lawmakers have spent the past eight years bashing President Barack Obama as fiscally irresponsible, but investors are now betting that Donald Trump could run much bigger budget deficits than Democratic rival Hillary Clinton had planned.

Those bets might underestimate potential political pitfalls, but they’re part of the reason stocks quickly recovered from the swoon that sent futures sharply lower as a surprise Trump victory in the presidential election became apparent late Tuesday night. And it is also part of the reason why Treasury bonds sold off sharply, sending yields soaring.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 20:32:36

Maybe instead of supporting Wahhabi fundamentalism and radical mosques all over the the globe, or the Clinton Foundation, Saudi Arabia should settle its arrears.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/11/saudi-arabia-owes-billions-to-private-firms-after-collapse-in-oil-revenues

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 20:49:40

Cry it out, future cat ladies. Crooked Hillary has been vanquished by The Donald.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3921786/Tears-anguish-devastation-female-Clinton-voters.html

Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-10 21:52:27

Butt-Hurt Crying Hillary Voters Compilation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grD_IINiH9c

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-10 22:27:11

Mean spirited and true to form, Raymond.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-10 20:57:55

The rent is too damn high…I want concessions, and I’m going to get them, Mr. Landlord, or we won’t be doing business.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-10/more-troubling-signs-nyc-real-estate-rent-concession-soar

 
Comment by rms
2016-11-10 21:12:10

Knocking back a cold-one for azslim; another trip around the sun.

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-10 21:25:42

Do those protesters in Oakland think they made it to Canada?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwDvF0NtgdU

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-10 22:11:50

Is the Fed’s War on Savers ending? (Yes, I’m a saver.)

The Financial Times
Election investment strategies
‘Trumpflation’ risk rattles bond markets
Debt bull market faces test as prospects of US growth, protectionism lift inflation risk
15 hours ago
by: Elaine Moore

Donald Trump has come under criticism for his lack of specifics on policy in the campaign. But in his victory speech after his upset in the US presidential election, he made one very specific promise: to invest in American infrastructure.

“We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals,” Mr Trump said. “We’re going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. And we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it.”

By singling out a public works programme, the president-elect has raised expectations in bond markets of government stimulus that would not only raise debt levels but spur growth and inflation — testing a three-decade rally that drove yields to record lows.

Yields on US Treasury debt have risen sharply in the immediate aftermath of the presidential result, with the 10-year bond hitting 2.12 per cent in morning New York trading on Thursday, a 40 basis point increase from the depths of the post-election sell-off.

“Under a Trump presidency we are more likely to see fiscal expansion that drives growth and markets are reflecting that,” says Andrew Wilson, global co-head of fixed income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, who called the moves as a reflation trade.

Comment by rms
2016-11-10 23:28:42

“We’re going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. And we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it.”

We could rebuild all of it every year with the money we’re spending in the middle-east.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-10 23:32:25

Did you ever notice how all the money we are pouring into prosecuting wars in the Middle East are not part of the discussion on how to reduce the costs of government?

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-10 22:25:22

Why are bond vigilantes so afraid of Trump?

10-year Treasury yield’s 4-day rise largest in nearly 2½ years
Published: Nov 10, 2016 4:07 p.m. ET
By Joseph Adinolfi
Markets reporter

Treasury prices tumbled for the fourth straight session on Thursday, driven by the expectation that President-elect Donald Trump would adopt a range of stimulative economic policies, including tax cuts and increased infrastructure spending.

The yield on the 10-year note gained 4.9 basis points to 2.118%, its highest level since Jan. 11. The four-day advance was the 10-year’s largest since June 24, 2013.

Meanwhile, the two-year yield added 1.2 basis point to 0.906%, its largest four-day rise since May. The 30-year yield advanced 5.1 basis points to 2.928%, its largest four-day gain since May 2009.

On Wednesday, the 10-year yield—which increased by an astounding 20.3 basis points—shot above the key 2% threshold for the first time since March as a “fear trade” gripped U.S. debt markets.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-10 22:38:26

Why the Elite Wanted Trump To Lose

There’s that word again.

Comment by Karen
2016-11-10 23:18:58

Elections pose a basic problem. Should the direction of a government be set by amateurs We the People, by a the majority or plurality mass of people who know nothing about policy detail have to pay for and suffer the consequences of government policy, or should the best and brightest worst and the darkest, the educated elite the parasites and government lobbyists and foreign interests, make informed decisions be allowed to pretend to act for the good of all, for the good of everyone while taking all the loot for themselves, and growing ever fatter and richer as they feed off the corpse of the Republic?

I am feeling some serious rage at these folks.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-10 23:34:21

Apparently walls come in handy for keeping liberal deplorables away from the Trump Tower.

Trump gets his wall: Huge barricade and no-fly zone is put in place around Manhattan’s Trump Tower amid protests at The Donald’s shock election victory
By Sarah Dean For Mailonline
Published: 06:54 EST, 10 November 2016 | Updated: 17:49 EST, 10 November 2016

Comment by Karen
2016-11-11 00:15:24

Liberal deplorables?

“Police in Portland Oregon have detained several people as an anti-Trump protest-turned violent with demonstrators breaking windows of businesses and starting a dumpster fire downtown. Police termed it a riot.”

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-latest-arrests-in-portland-anti-trump-protests/ar-AAk7pRZ?li=BBnbfcL

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-11 01:27:39

They are running amok all along the West Coast.

Anti-Trump Protests Erupt In Oregon And Across West Coast
AP | Nov. 9, 2016 1:13 p.m. | Updated: Nov. 9, 2016 2:59 p.m. | Oakland

Demonstrators angry about the election of Donald Trump smashed windows and set garbage bins on fire early Wednesday in downtown Oakland, California, joining protesters elsewhere in the country who swarmed streets in response to the election. Other protests were generally peaceful.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2016-11-11 05:53:17

Trump supporters wore Hillary’s “Basket of Deplorables” canard as a badge of honor, considering the source of the comment. Please don’t call Soros Scum “deplorable” now that the word means defiant opposition to the corrupt, crony capitalist status quo. Call them what they are: vermin.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-10 23:37:40

Investors flee emerging markets after Trump victory
By The Associated Press November 10, 2016 4:45 pm

NEW YORK (AP) — Investing in Mexico, China and other emerging markets has never been for the fainthearted. Big swings have been a hallmark, caused by everything from the 1994 “tequila crisis” where Mexico devalued the peso to Russia’s default on its debt in 1998.

Here’s the latest addition to the list: Donald Trump’s victory on Tuesday, which some analysts are calling an “orange swan” event for emerging markets. Trump’s election was unexpected, and investors were unprepared for it — the kind of event that economists liken to seeing a black swan for the first time — and it has caused stock markets to tumble from Mexico City to Seoul. As investors try to piece together what a Trump presidency will mean for stocks, a growing consensus is that emerging markets will be some of the biggest losers, at least in the short term.

Comment by Karen
2016-11-11 00:17:29

MAGA means Make America Great Again, not make China and Mexico great.

They can deal with their own stock markets.

Comment by Professor Bear
2016-11-11 01:28:39

So long as our stock market keeps going up, we will know MAGA is working.

Comment by Karen
2016-11-11 11:39:03

Do you not realize that the stock market is as big a bubble as real estate?

It’s a bubble that’s going to pop no matter what.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2016-11-11 00:24:10

We Live in the Arctic, 1947

“We Live in the Arctic” is a silent film by Harmon “Bud” Helmericks and Constance Helmericks, circa 1947. The film details the Helmericks’ lives as homesteaders in the Brooks Mountain Range of Alaska, and as explorers of northern Alaska and Canada.’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyuCd5VQbxI

 
Comment by redmondjp
2016-11-11 01:00:38

Interesting discussions on talk radio tonight regarding Trump’s meetings today in the WH, as well as the background of some of his team. The establishment Republicans seem to be back to their old habits and think that this will be business as usual.

One thing that was interesting: Giuliani, while he was mayor of NYC and like previous mayors, continued an executive order policy of making it a sanctuary city.

Time will tell if Trump will really be changing anything, or if he is just another puppet of the power-elite. As mentioned above, we’ll see if anything changes with respect to our Middle Eastern policy - that will be telling.

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-11 06:16:45

After Donald Trump victory, Oregonians submit ballot proposal to secede from the union

By Lizzy Acker | The Oregonian/OregonLive
November 10, 2016 at 10:00 AM

Two days after Donald Trump was elected president of the United States, two Portlanders have submitted a petition for a 2018 ballot initiative to have Oregon secede from the United States.

comments

Russ_in_OR 24 minutes ago

Can we just have a ballot initiative to have Portland secede from Oregon?

New EnglandJCALBunchofpdxbabies LikeReply

A. Frog 5 minutes ago
@Russ_in_OR And possibly Eugene.

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/11/after_trump_victory_oregonians.html

 
Comment by phony scandals
2016-11-11 06:27:12

Portland’s anti-Trump protest turns violent, as rioters rampage in Pearl

By Jim Ryan | The Oregonian/OregonLive
November 10, 2016 at 6:30 PM

A third consecutive day of anti-Trump demonstrations turned violent Thursday night, as protesters began with a rush-hour march and chanting but eventually damaged cars at a dealership and rampaged through the Pearl District shattering business windows into Friday morning.

Police declared the demonstration a “riot” more than three hours after its 5 p.m. start, citing “extensive criminal and dangerous behavior.” The bureau said it warned the crowd about the designation, then tweeted that rioting is a class C felony. It later tweeted that 26 were arrested in the demonstration, which lasted into early Friday morning.

http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2016/11/anti-trump_protests_held_for_f.html

Comment by drumminj
2016-11-11 18:20:10

Do these folks think that the vote was rigged/dishonest? Or is it just that the votes of folks they don’t agree with shouldn’t count?

I’m blown away by the folks who can’t seem to cope with the fact we have a democratic republic, when people they disagree with get elected.

Let me make a suggestion to anyone who’s disturbed by this — stop trying to centralize governmental power. If the federal government’s powers were limited as they were originally set up to be, and if the executive hadn’t been allowed to usurp legislative (and judicial!) powers, then who is elected to the office of president isn’t a big deal.

The people have spoken. You can’t have a representative form of government, but only if it goes your way. Sometimes you’re in the minority. That’s okay. And that’s also why we have laws to protect the minority from tyranny of the majority — stop trying to erode the constitution before this is lost as well.

Comment by tj
2016-11-12 05:26:16

they’re going to find out it wasn’t rigged the way they thought it was.

many many illegals voted in this election. trump had to overcome the voter fraud that occurred.

it will be all be uncovered in the not too distant future.

 
Comment by tj
2016-11-12 05:56:54

drumminj,

here’s a wish for the joshua tree extension.

sometimes it’s easy to misread what post you’re replying to. how about a color to highlight the path to the post you’re replying to? it would make it easier to not make a mistake replying in a long thread.

Comment by drumminj
2016-11-12 17:28:42

how about a color to highlight the path to the post you’re replying to? it would make it easier to not make a mistake replying in a long thread.

Interesting suggestion. Let me think on it/see if I can come up with a way to make that work….

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by drumminj
2016-11-12 17:53:28

Taking a quick look, I’m curious to understand where the confusion is…

By default, the plugins Ben is using will ‘collapse’ all of the children of the comment you’re posting to, so that should make it clear which the parent is. What’s the scenario where it’s confusing? Do you have a screenshot perhaps you can send?

I have some ideas, but the difficulty is making it behave correctly if you “cancel” reply.

 
Comment by tj
2016-11-12 17:55:01

great! sometimes i wish i could just click on a post and see who it is replying to. there are other sites that use a platform similar to this one that could use the same thing.

 
Comment by tj
2016-11-12 18:08:35

i’ve never used ‘cancel reply’.

yes it does collapse the children. maybe nothing can be done after the thread gets too long to show individual replies. it then just shows a batch of replies (if i’m using the correct words).

anyway, it isn’t all that important. i should just learn to be more careful and not be so lazy.

thanks for your time.

 
Comment by drumminj
2016-11-12 19:58:52

TJ, if you’re willing to be a guinea-pig, I have a version you can play with that may do what you want. Shoot me an email at jt.extension at gmail dot com and I can send it to you.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by tj
2016-11-13 06:05:59

drumminj, you’re a great dude and i really do appreciate it. but for a host of reasons, some of them being just time constraints, i just can’t do it. i’ll spare you the lengthy explanations.

thank you for even being willing to look into the matter. i owe you for that alone. if it ever gets put into your extension, i’ll use it. gratefully.

thanks again..

 
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