A Lot Of People Who Are Financially Overexposed
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “A new wind is blowing in the nation’s housing market. And if one of the industry’s top economists is prescient, it’s a wind that could begin to cool the red-hot real estate market in high-growth cities around the country. Declines in home buyer traffic and changes in consumer attitudes about housing purchases are showing up after several years of positive growth, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. ‘One thing that is clear is there is much weaker momentum now compared to six months ago, one year ago or even 18 months ago,’ Yun told thousands of real estate agents meeting earlier this month in Florida.”
“Yun said lender surveys show that fewer people are applying for loans to buy homes, even though interest rates have remained relatively low. ‘It had been consistently positive up to the summer,” he said. ‘Ever since the summer, it’s beginning to trend down from one year ago.’”
“Manhattan landlords are giving renters more financial incentives than ever in a bid to keep apartments from going empty while the market gets flooded with new supply. At the end of last month, there were 7,132 apartments available for rent in Manhattan, a 23 percent jump from October 2015, according to the report. The annual growth in listings has topped 20 percent every month this year since March.”
“‘There must be great concern because of how much competition has been added to the market over the last couple of years,’ said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel. ‘This is probably not a temporary blip.’”
“With more than 28,000 apartments set to open in North Texas next year, will there be enough renters to fill them all? More than 50,000 apartments are under construction in North Texas — more than any other metro area in the country. Developers say the spike in apartment costs has put a strain on renters. ‘It’s an affordability issue,” said Doug Chesnut, one of the founders of StreetLIghts Residential, one of Uptown’s busiest apartment developers. ‘People just can’t afford the cost. We can build it, but if they can’t afford it, it will sit there vacant.’”
“Really, really bad. That’s the current outlook for luxury housing in the United States. Right now, the supply of high-end homes is rising, demand is falling, and prices are being cut. Making matters worse, an ongoing Federal criminal investigation into wealthy home buyers across the country is scaring away skittish foreigners. Greenwich, Connecticut, home to some of the richest people and most expensive homes in the world, is in deep trouble. As you can see in the numbers below, there’s a staggering amount of houses sitting on the market.”
“$3 million to $4 million: 17 months of supply which has risen 38% over the past year. $4 million to $5 million: 22 months of supply, +35% over the past year. $5 million to $10 million: 48 months of supply, +108% over the past year. Greater than $10 million: 128 months of supply, +63% over the past year. To put that last bullet into perspective, at 128 months, that’s almost 13 years of supply.”
“Just this week I was speaking with a new client who lives in Corinth Hills. We were discussing the market when he made the comment that he and his wife had noticed the market has shifted. I asked him why he would say that, and he said they had noticed homes that were once selling in a day — or not even hitting the market — were now taking much longer to sell.”
“Several weeks ago I wrote about market downturn indicators and how the Shawnee Mission area was already seeing 3 of the 5 indicators. Well, as of this week, we are now at 5 out of 5. In the last two weeks, we have been hired by two Prairie Village families who have been on the market for at least 60 days and have not successfully sold yet. This is the first time that I have listed a previously listed home, let alone two, in a couple of years. In both cases, it seemed that the prior strategy was to let the seller’s market do the heavy lifting. Well, unfortunately, since July, those days are gone.”
“I have learned through the years that shifts in real estate happen gradually and then suddenly. The suddenly is the drop in sales, and it has taken many a Realtor’s breath away. If you look at the comparison of last October to this October, you will see that the months of supply is up 49.9 percent comparatively. Now let’s notice what has been happening since April 2016. The supply has been slowing going up. Not dramatically, but rather gradually. That is until October when, BAM, the inventory doubled!”
“Six months after a red hot real estate market on the North Shore peaked at scorching highs, a dramatic cooling has sent sales into the deep freeze and prices are falling. ‘We have a completely collapsed activity level,’ said Realtor Brent Eilers of Remax Masters Realty in West Vancouver. ‘What the market’s done since Aug. 1 is dramatic.’”
“Prices are beginning to fall, said Eilers, who added those who want to sell their house now will likely get between 10 and 20 per cent less than they might have got at the earlier peak of the market. Many of the homes selling have ‘greatly reduced their price to get the home sold.’ ‘That’s a big shift in the mood of the market,’ he said. ‘Now the pressure’s on the seller. There are a lot of people who are overexposed financially.’”
“The number of unsold central-London homes under construction will reach a record high this year, increasing the risk that developers’ bets on rising demand for luxury properties will go sour. Luxury home prices have been dropping across the market. Values in Chelsea and Knightsbridge fell 9.9 percent and 5.6 percent respectively in the year through October, according to broker Knight Frank LLP. To the north of Hyde Park they were 8.2 percent lower.”
“‘A glut of inappropriate residential stock has been bubbling for some time now across prime central London,’ said Faisal Durrani, head of research at broker Cluttons LLP. ‘An unfortunate combination of domestic and global events has accelerated a market-wide slowdown that has been under way for almost 18 months now.’”
“Investors have abandoned property in the battling steel town of Whyalla with average rents tumbling 27 per cent in a year, while house prices have plunged 25 per cent as sellers face a wait of nine months to offload sharply discounted properties. ‘Investors have been non-existent for the last six months. They’ve disappeared,’ said Peter Calliss, a real estate veteran. ‘The banks have tightened up. It’s just been a flow-on effect.’”
“The recently implemented housing sales restrictions are alarming real estate agencies and property developers. This real estate agency in Shanghai’s downtown Jingan used to be one of the company’s best-performing branches in term of sales volume. But since Shanghai launched a new series of housing policies last month, almost none of the staff bothers to come to the office.”
“‘Some 50 to 70 percent fewer clients are coming to see apartments. There are fewer apartments on the market and recent policies have made it harder for some would-be buyers. So people are not coming,’ said Yu Jiajun, Deputy Branch Manager of Centaline Property.”
“In the hours after Donald Trump was elected US president, the Canadian immigration website crashed and google searches on moving to New Zealand rocketed. But it’s not a case of just packing a bag, because for one thing, New Zealand has a housing crisis that won’t accommodate Trumpfugees. New York Times columnist Gail Collins jested about the potential flood of Americans to other shores: ‘Forget about moving abroad. Of course it sounds tempting, but you’d be surprised how many countries are unenthusiastic about acquiring new former-American citizens. Plus there’s that terrible housing bubble in New Zealand.’”
What the Heck’s going on with Foreclosures? Why this Spike?
by Wolf Richter • November 10, 2016 • 43 Comments
http://wolfstreet.com/
Just when the MSM assured us that foreclosures were going to stay at recent low levels FOREVER!
Housing Bust 2? Subprime No-Down-Payment Mortgages Surge, “Shadow Banks” Dominate
by Wolf Richter • October 25, 2016 • 53 Comment
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/10/25/government-guaranteed-subprime-mortgages-low-or-no-down-payments-surge-shadow-banks-dominate/
The money people own your @ss, admit it.
Folks on Nightly Business Report (airs on PBS but wholly owned by CNBC) are already discussing how to profit from a Trump Presidency. For example, rolling back that rule that forced brokers to disclose conflicts of interest.
Those Trump voters need JOBS, and all the money people care about is keeping their crooked dealings secret. Disgusting.
I hope there are some non-rural, non-un-educated folks at Drudge and Breitbart keeping tabs on this sh!t and reporting to those Trump voters.
Those Trump
votersdoners needJOBSFAVORS…Fixed it.
Trump’s election could trigger a peso crisis in Mexico.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/11/10/trump-mexico-peso-crisis-trigger-next-dollar-debt-crisis/
Thanks for posting. I suspect it’s only going to get worse.
Thanks for sharing. Ramifications could be catastrophic for many.
With borrowing costs surging in the PIIGS, how long will Draghi be able to maintain NIRP? And what happens when he’s forced to raise rates?
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Bond/TMBMKIT-10Y?countrycode=BX
All the PIIGS have terrible unemployment especially for younger workers trying to get started in life. The economic crises will morph into demographic potholes as the timeline unfolds.
Rare truthiness from an unlikely source. Team Hillary and the DNC were so blinded by their own arrogance and hubris they never saw the populist tsnuami building among the people who pay the bills and price for their corporate statism.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-10/trump-s-data-team-saw-a-different-america-and-they-were-right
“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.” - Richard P. Feynman
Let the recriminations begin in the corrupt DNC. How sweet it is….
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/11/10/huffington-post-dnc-staffer-screams-donna-brazile-helping-elect-donald-trump/
Speaking of finance,
“In 1816 the Second Bank of the United States was chartered by President James Madison to restore the United States economy devastated by the War of 1812… Biddle’s recharter bill passed the Senate on June 11 and the House on July 3, 1832. Jackson, believing that Bank was fundamentally a corrupt monopoly whose stock was mostly held by foreigners, vetoed the bill. Jackson used the issue to promote his democratic values, believing the Bank was being run exclusively for the wealthy. Jackson stated the Bank made “the rich richer and the potent more powerful…”
Wikipedia on Andrew Jackson
Just a suggestion: Might be a good new Presidential Portrait for the Oval Office.
The Deplorable In Chief of his day.
Andew Jackson foresaw what a swindle a central bank (i.e. the Federal Reserve) would be against the Republic and its citizens.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/gold-news/andrew-jacksons-speech-against-central-banksters-as-true-today-as-in-1832/
If Trump is as harsh on illegal immigrants as he promised during his campaign, we might even get the 21st century equivalent of the Trail of Tears.
On a side note, electoral-vote.com has had excellent commentary on this election: Dem-leaning but whine-free. Today they ran some stats and concluded that Clinton lost because registered Dems simply didn’t show up for her compared to 2012. Example: in Wisconsin, Trump got the same votes as Romney did in 2012. But Clinton got 15% FEWER votes than Obama did in 2012. Similar for Michigan, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania etc. No racism, no voter suppression. Just plain ol’ dislike of Hillary.
Almost 50% of Registered Democratic women are of above average intelligence. Many of them voted for Trump is what I hear.
My wife is in that camp (intelligent women who are registered Democrat). That said, I think her politics are moving right she ages and is more successful.
I don’t know if she voted for Clinton or not, but in CA, it didn’t matter. I do know that she said several times that it is a shame that our likely first woman president is going to be someone as corrupt as HRC.
She wasn’t a Trump supporter though…my guess is that she held her nose and voted for HRC.
I can easily see how a woman appalled at the idea of HRC as the first woman president would vote for Trump.
I don’t think your wife’s politics are moving right. It’s more like your wife stayed the same and the libs have simply moved too far left, especially in the past four years. Very recently, libs crossed the line from being generous to giving away the store. From being a social justice warrior in the mold of MLK, to being a sucker who is taken advantage of by unsavory folks. Most notably, unsavory folks who walk in, have children, and then demand freebies for the sake of said children.
My wife has very little visibility into the government giveaways, and she pays little attention to politics and so that has not moved her.
What has moved her is a stark realization of how much we pay in tax, which is less related to a recent move to the left (since the rates are similar to those under Clinton), and more related to her being successful.
“…in CA, it didn’t matter.”
That’s right. You could have voted for the Man on the Moon with full assurance that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote here.
“What has moved her is a stark realization of how much we pay in tax, which is less related to a recent move to the left (since the rates are similar to those under Clinton), and more related to her being successful.”
Anyone who passed their undergraduate microeconomics course realizes that we have an income tax system designed to punish Middle Class worker productivity.
Small wonder so many Middle Class workers remain perpetually out of the workforce!
“The difference between successful people and others is how long they spend time feeling sorry for themselves.” —Barbara Corcoran
When I’m not being successful I think of that quote.
“If Trump is as harsh on illegal immigrants as he promised during his campaign, we might even get the 21st century equivalent of the Trail of Tears.”
Oh, puh-leeze. We’ve already had the 21st century equivalent of the Trail of Tears ad nauseum. These mokes have perfected the art of crying on cue. Like Pavlov’s dogs, they see a camera or a microphone and the tears start flowing. Geez, they could end the drought in California, except you’d need a desal plant or two.
I like a good documentary as much as the next person, but seriously, shut off NPR and PBS for a while. Which reminds me, why are we still funding those outlets?
“Search Results
Image result for Trail of Tears
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aia/part4/4h1567.html
“In 1838 and 1839, as part of Andrew Jackson’s Indian removal policy, the Cherokee nation was forced to give up its lands east of the Mississippi River and to migrate to an area in present-day Oklahoma. The Cherokee people called this journey the “Trail of Tears,” because of its devastating effects.”
I found a 21st century trail of tears, by golly:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/03/nyregion/they-keep-finding-bodies-gang-violence-in-long-island-town-fuels-immigration-debate.html
That’s a real trail of tears right there. Youth being offed by Central American gang-bangers right on good old Long Island. Some of these families hoped to escape hell, but it followed them.
And here’s a Trail of Tears that happened right in my own back yard, the locally infamous Apollo Beach gang rapes:
http://www.tampabay.com/news/courts/criminal/apollo-beach-rape-case-began-with-a-scream-in-an-alley/1147507
But eff-em, right, oxy? Those ladies were probably deplorables and had it coming. They probably don’t watch PBS or listen to NPR.
BTW, does anyone know what these women have to endure after a good gang-bang? It’s sort of like rabies treatments. A painful series of injections to fend off possible STDs and other diseases.
But eff-em, right, oxy? Maybe you can recommend an edifying Ken Burns documentary to them.
Palmy, you’re overreacting. I didn’t say I *wanted* the illegals here. I’m just warning Trump to be careful with how he carries out his plans to deport. if he sends ICE in indiscriminately, we could very well see families literally ripped apart on TV.
Trump is already walking back some of his campaign rhetoric. If he steps up the deportation of criminals and undesirables, while tightening border security, that would be a good first step.
“I’m just warning Trump to be careful with how he carries out his plans to deport.”
Give him a call and warn him then. This “ripping families apart” is one big smelly canard. Whither the parents go, so shall the children. When my parents moved from one town to another, I had to go with them. No one was sobbing about me and my siblings being ripped from “the only home I’ve ever known” or separated from friends. Many of these “parents”, and used the term loosely, could give a rat’s patootie about “the children” outside of the compensation they get for them.
Speaking of warning, as a Trump supporter, we got all these “warnings” from “the authorities” within the movement to behave ourselves if Trump lost, to avoid “acting out”. And to be gracious and “start the healing” if he won. How’d that work out? Ask the people who were viciously beaten, including the 11 year old kid, for supporting Trump.
Y’know what? I’m sick of being “warned”.
Who knows what will happen, but all he needs to do is give signals that employers may not hire illegals & etc. They will go home. It’s a financial wall and Mexico will pay, in lost remittances. The ripping families apart on TV thing is ridiculous.
‘Who knows what will happen, but all he needs to do is give signals that employers may not hire illegals & etc. ‘
+1
I detest Hillary. And have for years. I can only hope that after being smacked down again (like in 2008 when Obama came out of nowhere and took the nomination), she’ll finally go away for good.
Well, maybe Bill will have the big one and Hillary will go of a broken heart within days of each and then we can have a one of a kind double state funeral celebrating their love for each other and country. Good novel for Stephen King.
First he needs to stay on the $20 bill. I’ll never agree with how he treated native Americans, but as a factual matter we wouldn’t be the United States we are today without him.
You mean how he treated allies of the British in the American Revolution?
Who fought against the very freedoms we enjoy today?
Go Google the Cherry Hill Massacre.
The Cherokee were staunch allies of the British.
Jackson taught them what it means to loose a war. They are lucky they were not treated like Nazis German.
And Nazis Germany never massacred entire American towns.
I think you mean “Cherry Valley Massacre.” That occurred in New York in 1778 during the Revolutionary War and involved the Iroquois, not the Cherokee. Andrew Jackson would have been 11 years old and not involved, although according to Wikipedia he did participate in the American Revolution, as a courier to the local militia in the Carolinas.
The Cherokee, in fact, were not allied with the British during the War of 1812. They were allied with American forces, led by Jackson, in the southern theatre of the conflict. As President, Jackson proceeded to expel the Cherokee from Georgia — not after a war, but after gold was discovered there.
Not your most coherent post banana. Did your weekend start a little early?
Nearly ALL Indians tribes fought on the side of the British in the American Revolution.
To INCLUDE the Cherokee.
The were the shock and terror troops of the Crown responsible for dozens of massacres of civilians, torturing POWs and for taking mostly white slaves.
And you wonder why they were treated like they were.
How is that for being coherent?
Uh, we were talking about Andrew Jackson. You advised me to use the Google, and I did. But with respect to conflict with Native Americans, there’s more than enough terror and massacres to go around. Not sure why you invoked Nazi Germany, either, but after Nuremberg we rebuilt Germany rather than forcibly relocate the entire population.
Stop trying to intervene with facts in the path of Republican talking points!
If only Donald Trump would End the Fed
Not audit it, get rid of it
Immigration, Federal Reserve, Trade.
If he doesn’t do what he said on those, he’s toast. Personally, it seems there are conflicts of interest on at least the second and third items. We’ll see.
…and if the rumors of Dimon are true…c’mon, man!
Yeah, WOW on that. Trump would lose all respect going with that guy. Dimon is one of those most responsible for the economic meltdown, and should be in prison.
As long as he disrupts the status quo, or makes a relentless effort to do so, he’ll avoid the toaster in my opinion.
Anecdotally, I read that Mitch McConnell wasn’t very receptive to the term limits for Congress, saying that we already have them and they’re called elections.
We live in interesting times that are going to become even more interesting.
We have state legislature term limits here in Florida. They actually appear to have empowered lobbyists (many of whom are former politicians), special interests, and career staff, because no elected politician can stay around long enough to learn the ropes and become truly effective. I get tired of seeing the same old leaders too, especially when they’re so bad, but I have to agree with McConnell on this one. Maybe term limits, but long ones, like ten terms in the House and three in the Senate.
The lifers in DC remind me of a prison… different warden every few years, but the prisoners run the place.
Here’s to hoping that Andrew Jackson serves as a model for the Trump Presidency.
Read the other day that Vancouver was imposing a $10k / yr. Tax on any vacant houses. If not disclosed, the tax jumps to $10k / day. Didn’t save the link though….
http://www.calgaryherald.com/vancouver+slaps+year+empty+homes+about/12372683/story.html
They say it is 1% of assessed value of the empty homes, not specifically $10K. I don’t know if “assessed value” vs “market value” (or whatever value) are significantly different, but given many of the houses in Vancouver are appx 1mm, then you get your $10K number.
For the foreign Chinese buyers, they already got hit with the 15% foreign-buyer tax, so what’s an extra 1%. Heh.
Who owns your house?
If I want my vacant or full it’s my business
Whatever it takes to get all these empty houses on the market.
C$10,000 a DAY. That is going to leave a mark.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-09/vancouver-wields-c-10-000-a-day-fine-in-crackdown-on-empty-homes
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-09/vancouver-wields-c-10-000-a-day-fine-in-crackdown-on-empty-homes
Try bloomibergi: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-09/vancouver-wields-c-10-000-a-day-fine-in-crackdown-on-empty-homes
plus it’s all over google. and get this: secondary homes rented out on AirBnB would still count as “empty” and still get taxed. Wa-hoo!
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-airbnb-empty-homes-tax-1.3771725
I hope this practice spreads as municipalities and communities fight back against the blight of empty speculative housing. Suck it, realtors and speculators!
And if you lie about it and get caught, you pay 1% per day supposedly.
They could buy mannequins and put a TV nearby a window so it looks like the houses are occupied.
Like back when California started dedicating a freeway lane for car-pool traffic only. People would put a mannequin in the passenger seat and try to cheat that way.
Just offer neighbors a financial incentive for ratting out absentee homeowners. Most would probably be happy to lower the boom on speculators who don’t take care of their property.
That’s how North Korea works! Seems like a pretty smart system.
The neighbors are in on the Ponzi.
Not if they’re renters.
I think you would be interested in reading this Ben;
http://city-journal.us4.list-manage.com/track/click?u=b75d222a8ff4ade269f9efd3b&id=f6d449dda0&e=cc5188f607
‘An annual congressional report, “Estimates of Federal Tax Expenditures,” gives insight into how Washington manipulates supply and demand in these sectors. Consider house prices. This year, Washington will pay homeowners $99 billion in forgone taxes to borrow money to purchase or refinance a house or to sell that house and reap the profit. Americans will buy or sell about $600 billion worth of houses this year. Government subsidy, then, represents nearly one-sixth of this market. The federal government also provides a guarantee for most mortgages, thanks to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-supported mortgage companies that benefited for decades from an implicit government guarantee before they got an explicit guarantee during the 2008 financial crisis.’
‘These subsidies have fired the growth of the housing industry. Between 1975 and 1979, the U.S. Treasury paid out $102.6 billion in mortgage-interest breaks in today’s dollars. Between 2015 and 2019, the Treasury will pay out $419.8 billion in such tax favoritism—a more than fourfold rise, nearly ten times the population increase. The hike is particularly extraordinary, considering that in the late 1970s, the annual interest rate on a mortgage was 9 percent, twice what it is today. Taking today’s lower rates into account, Washington has increased the mortgage subsidy more than eightfold.’
‘It’s no surprise that mortgage debt has soared, to $9.5 trillion, from $2.6 trillion in inflation-adjusted dollars in 1981. Back then, mortgage debt constituted 31 percent of our nation’s GDP. Today, it makes up nearly 53 percent.’
‘Washington has increased the mortgage subsidy more than eightfold’
Anyone want to insert supply and demand at this point?
I’ll bite. “Demand” can be characterized as desire+ ability. This subsidy money enables people who had the desire but not the ability to purchase, to now have both desire and ability. That is, demand increases. If the housing supply — in good locations — doesn’t increase, then the price of housing should rise.
This applies to people who purchase for primary residence. For speculators who think to sell in the near future, they buy on the premise of not only the current price but the perception of future price. The increase in demand and subsequent increase in price raises the perceived future price and therefore raises speculative demand too, which competes with and adds to the demand from end-consumer buyers, raising prices even more, in a positive feedback loop.
‘“Demand” can be characterized as desire+ ability.’
Where is the $99 billion subsidy in that equation?
“Ability don’t last.” —Marsellus Wallace
“Demand” can be characterized as desire+ ability.
in addition, desire becomes less important as ability increases. ability being ‘buying power’.
as buying power increases, desire almost becomes whimsical. one could then question if it is really ‘desire’ anymore.
There it is. The EmptyPocketed want what they can’t have. Some charlatan comes along and tells them they can have it but it requires a deal with the devil, they do it.
yes, wanting or desire for what you can’t afford, isn’t market demand.
The question is how do you unwind it if thats the political desire…Its a behemoth…And there is a lot of debt out there riding that horse…
“mortgage debt has soared, to $9.5 trillion”…
There’s only one way to the bottom of the global housing bubble…… Falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels, accelerating the economy and creating jobs only like falling prices can.
BEG FOR A LOAN PEON.
Look at it like an impending bankruptcy. The first step in unwinding a mountain of debt is to stop piling it up.
Shutting the tidal wave of borrowed government money is the first step in fixing this dead economy.
The first step in unwinding a mountain of debt is to stop piling it up ??
LOL…Well get ready for the pile to get much bigger because government cheese is on the way…A promise is a promise…
It all starts at home. Step 1: Acknowledge your losses.
Creepy…
Step 2?
Step 2: PROFIT!
Step2-liquidate depreciating asset, declare bankruptcy.
‘how do you unwind it’
There are two things at work: government interference and market forces. Look at the articles above: 13 years of inventory in Greenwich. A glut of apartments in Manhattan. Tens of thousands of overpriced apartments being built in Dallas. Market forces are like gravity. They never stop trying to seek equilibrium. Market forces are unwinding it as we type. The ugly outcome is at the foot of the fools who interfere in the market.
“The ugly outcome is at the foot of the fools who interfere in the market.”
And the degenerate gamblers who convinced themselves that the few resources that go into building anything are on the scale of a moonshot.
Like the crushing weight of market forces, the losses associated with paying more than construction cost($55/sqft lot, labor, materials and profit) will materialize no matter what.
“DEBT SLAVES ARE EASY TO MANIPULATE.”
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MDOTP1T4FR
I was actually surprised by what I found when I pulled the spreadsheet and ran some numbers. These are all NOMINAL…on a real basis, the numbers from 1952-1999 would look lower relative to 2000-2006 (my intuition is that inflation was higher on average from 1952-1999 than from 2000-2006, but that’s just a guess).
From 1952-1999, mortgage debt grew by an average of 10% per annum.
From 2000 to 2006, mortgage debt grew by an average of 12% per annum.
From 2000 to date, mortgage debt grew by an average of about 5% per annum.
From 2006 to date, mortgage debt has been roughly flat on a nominal basis (shrinking on a real basis).
In 1952, there was ~$55B of mortgage debt, and the NOMINAL GDP that year was $426B. So, in 1952, mortgage debt was only 13% of GDP vs. 31% of GDP in 1981.
In other words, there is no magic to the 1981-today timeframe. We’ve been steadily using more and more mortgage debt as it relates to GDP since the FRED’s data series begins (in the early 50’s), and probably even before that.
So, if mortgage usage has been growing for much of the 20th century, but the madness in home price growth didn’t occur during that whole timeframe…what else is happening?
‘I have learned through the years that shifts in real estate happen gradually and then suddenly.’
“How did you go bankrupt?”
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”
Hemmingway
Few countries have the MID. Canada does not. Government subsidy of debt can’t explain their home price increases.
Almost no countries other than the US have a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. But a huge number of countries experienced the housing bubble in 2004-2007. The availability of the 30-year loan can’t explain those countries price run-ups.
Likewise, government lending programs like the FHA and Fannie/Freddie are also rare. But housing bubbles emerge all around the world.
There are loads of examples of housing prices going too high relative to income in the absence of the 30-year mortgage, government backing of loans, or the MID.
While I support getting rid of the GSEs and the MID (and eventually the 30-year would go away too), I think it is incorrect to believe that getting rid of these things alone will make housing affordable.
I think the big principle which will reform the markets is to limit “financial pollution” which is the ability externalize costs and internalize profits.
Think of a factory on a riverbank, upstream of a town. It belches pollutants into the river and into the air. The townsfolks don’t get to enjoy in the profits but they do suffer the costs.
Financial reform should seek to limit the costs of financial transactions to the participants in the transaction.
This is another way of saying that the “privatize the profits, socialize the losses” model should be eliminated. How those losses are socialized should be closely examined.
“This is another way of saying that the “privatize the profits, socialize the losses” model should be eliminated. How those losses are socialized should be closely examined.”
I agree, which means that the government should stop meddling, and make it less likely that large organizations will fail and the public bears meaningful costs. Some ideas:
1. Make it illegal to provide a rating (opine on the quality of) a mortgage pool unless more than 95% of that pool is supported by documented income that would be able to pay the highest possible payment under the terms of the loan…in other words, no rating loan pools that are made up of speculative loans.
2. Increase the down payment requirement for GSE loans by 0.25% every quarter–no “cold turkey”, but a slow roast…plenty of time for other private players to emerge. In 20 years, if the GSEs exist at all, their minimum down payment would be 23%. Over time, the entities would be providing safer and safer loans. Legislate that in 7 years, the explicit guarantee goes away…minimum down payments would be 10% at that point.
3. Restructure how FDIC insurance works, so that the banks have a maximum amount of protection for the entire bank…they can allocate it among their depositors as they wish. Small banks would have a competitive advantage over large ones because they could insure larger deposits. Large banks would need to prove to their depositors that they are safe.
Those ideas are pretty brilliant, RW.
but hasn’t the size of the mcmansion grown too
Will Trump move decisively against Mexican cartels and Central American gangs operating on US soil?
http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2016/11/special-ops-team-raids-drug-cartels-in.html
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/mexican-druglord-el-chapo-say-9237406
NEWSPEAK got ahead of itself in it’s zeal to see Crooked Hillary win the election.
http://knuckledraggin.com/2016/11/dewey-wins/
Got Grub-Hub stawk?
Investors have not reacted well to having some sanctimonious progressive tw*t of a CEO telling his employees how to vote.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-11/real-lesson-america-grubhub-stock-plunges-after-ceo-tells-trump-supporters-resign
Does my heart good to see this little nasty fister go down in flames.
Another bs company that is valued in billions for performing a trivial task, delivering restagrant food.
Foreclosures spiked in October. No one could’ve seen it coming…no one.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/11/10/whats-going-on-with-foreclosures-spike-fha-va-mortgages/
Oh dear. The defective circuitry in the precious snowflakes’ barren little craniums just switched into overload.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-win-is-causing-a-surge-in-demand-for-mental-health-services-2016-11-10
LOL!
Now now, let’s be nice. Many of those calls were from gay and transgender youth, and they have a legitimate concern. Trump’s putting far-right justices onto the Supreme Court could very well overturn the legalization of gay marriage. And while I believe that transgenders who are in transition should use the single-separate restrooms, they should be treated like real people too.
Most of Les Deplorables don’t give a damn what two consenting adults do in the privacy of their own bedroom. There should be two bathrooms: male and female. If you have a crank, you hit the male bathroom. Simple as that.
just use the handicapped bathroom, single person occupancy…..
Poor democrats.
They didn’t complain when five unelected judges went thier way…
Too bad they actually didn’t get laws passed.
Instead they shoved their ultra left wing agenda down America’s throat through judicial fiat.
PAYBACK is coming using their exact same method.
No complaining dems…
don’t count on much of a ‘pay back’. it’s beginning to look like trump will renege on much of what he promised to do.
He’s already dispatched the two dominant political dynasties of our age, run the neocons off, and taken the one position globalist depend on most. And he’s against globalism. Not bad for the first 3 days.
let’s see what he follows through on.
he’s already back peddling on obamacare and the wall. and i’m not trying to take a stance on anything. i’m just saying it’s not looking good that he’ll follow through.
as far as dispatching the political dynasties, that was just the result of his election. it’s a great result, but his supporters did it by following through for him. they refused to let anyone derail him, and the democrats and the dynasties paid mightily because of it.
i’m glad he won against clinton. i supported him because i couldn’t stand to see that criminal hillary get in. i just don’t want to see him piss away this great opportunity with compromises.
He’s gonna be president, not king. IMO this wall is completely unnecessary. Just run the social security numbers and find the ones that are fake, duplicates, belong to dead people, etc, drive over to where they are working and slap the fine on the employer that has been on the books for 30 years. No job, it’ll be adios gringos.
There’s going to be a push from many, many forces. And we can fight that as it comes. Considering that a year and a half ago it looked like Clinton versus Bush, I’d say anything positive we get from here on out is gravy. And there’s dozens of bubbles straining to pop. It might be damage control for the next 4 years.
IMO this wall is completely unnecessary.
so glad to hear you say that. i felt exactly the same way.
“Considering that a year and a half ago it looked like Clinton versus Bush, I’d say anything positive we get from here on out is gravy.”
yes, i’m on record on your blog as disliking bush more than anyone else in the republican primaries.
but we may not have congress and the presidency for a long time again. we need to take advantage of it. things like term limits, the lessening of tax and reg burdens and much more are necessary to free up the economy. the democrat party is very weakened right now. we don’t need to compromise. they never did. repeal obamacare.. all of it.
I’m not a Republican. Anyone who has read here for a while knows that I think globalism and policing the world (empire, as the neocons would call it) are our two biggest problems. Illegal immigration is part of globalism. The chance that some positives will come on these fronts is good, so I’m optimistic.
Central banks!
Am I the only one who wanted change? OK, so change has risks. Some of it will probably turn out badly. But look at how things are evolving: Russia is suddenly an ally against ISIS. We were almost at WW3 a week ago! The Saudis and Turks who backed ISIS are suddenly on the outs. Israel’s PM flew to Russia 3 times this year, putting him at odds with the neocons and “interventionists” like the Clinton’s. And it’s not just here in the US, this is big macro, sea-change. Next year there are going to be 4 European elections with a likely winner being anti-EU, including France and Italy, the 2 biggest after Germany. The EU could be gone shortly. NAFTA, WTO being re-considered! TPP is toast already.
as you know, much of the time you and i are on the same page.
i’m a registered independent, but i do see the ‘crats as the biggest problem right now. i see their political correctness as tyranny.
you have your eyes on the world stage. that’s very important, but not as important to me as our country. i’d just like us to have a strong economy again because for us, everything else builds from it.
The world can hang fire for all I care. These global entanglements are our biggest problem IMO.
The world can hang fire for all I care. These global entanglements are our biggest problem IMO.
I wish it were possible to make all the SJW’s stop for a moment and think. If we end up in WWIII, is that worth being able to push their agenda on the home front? People seem afraid that Trump is going to end legalized gay marriage, for example. But what is that compared to the risk of nuclear war?
they have a legitimate concern. Trump’s putting far-right justices onto the Supreme Court could very well overturn the legalization of gay marriage
So you’re insinuating here that these potential justices won’t uphold the law as they are sworn to do, but instead will simply rule based on their personal biases?
Don’t you think that’s a bit unfair? Do you have any basis for this belief?
Do you have any basis for this belief?
drummin, I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic; if not, aren’t you ignoring the many decisions that have been split 5-4 along ideological lines?
Not being sarcastic, Prime. Yes, I’m aware the court is often split along ideological lines, though I’d argue it’s not based on “left” vs “right”, but rather how they choose to interpret the constitution (strict constitutionalist or not). Apparently there are researchers who disagree, though:
Using statistical analysis of Supreme Court votes, scholars found that an inferred value representing a Justice’s ideological preference on a simple conservative–liberal scale is sufficient to predict a large number of that justice’s votes.[5]
Wikipedia link
My personal belief — if “liberal” vs “conservative” political leanings can change the ruling of a judge/justice, then it’s really something that needs to be addressed by the legislative branch rather than the judiciary as the law isn’t clear, and we’re asking the courts to determine too much.
Attacks by feral Hillary supporters are not hate crimes. They are The People’s Revolutionary Justice. Forward!
http://www.infowars.com/video-high-school-girl-viciously-attacked-for-supporting-donald-trump/
Opinions on this Hensarling guy for Treasury? I give him a mixed review. Not happy about his association with Gramm.
We’re having a civil war in BOTH parties. Once the dems quit sobbing, the Bernie wing is going to attack the HRC wing.
But on the GOP side, it’s going to be much sneakier. Those traditional establishment Republicans — Ryan, McConnell, maybe even Pence — are going to whisper sweet nothings in the ear of Trump, while quietly carrying out their usual “business-friendly” policies, which is code for screwing over the middle class, just as they always have.
The real mandate belongs to those people who faithfully turned out for Trump, those people who held their nose and voted for Clinton but felt ashamed about it, and even those who voted for Johnson. There’s actually a lot of economic overlap there. There’s quite a bit of room for Trump and the Dems to make deals.
Hey Donk.
I agree with that, if the Democrats in Congress can stop demonizing Trump, which is highly unlikely. It was working-class people in the Rust Belt who carried Trump over the top, and their economic interests haven’t mattered to the two major parties for decades, and to the Republican Party in particular for more than a century.
I followed through and voted for Stein. I am going to re-register as an independent, which I would have done earlier but for the fact that I wanted to vote for Sanders in the primary and Florida’s primary is closed.
“Consumers in the world’s biggest democracy just got a big surprise.
“Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday announced that 500 and 1,000 rupee banknotes would be withdrawn from circulation at midnight, saying it was part of a crackdown on rampant corruption and counterfeit currency.”
No more $7 bills! Paying cash is a crime against the banking system.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/08/india-abolishes-larger-banknotes-in-fight-against-graft-black-money.html
Why not insert an anti-counterfeiting strip in the currency, or take other measures besides withdrawing these from circulation?
I will say that, in the Third World, large bills are almost impossible to get rid of, because few people have the slightly smaller bills often needed to make change. When I convert money I specifically request a lot of small-denomination currency.
I was at the gym and saw a tv report on the news showing soro’s paid activists tearing up a city by the bay. Gee protesting Trump in a blue city by destroying it. Sweet justice! They had some gov type saying she can’t understand how this can happen in such a diversified city.
What’s she going to do with leftover campaign funds?
You’re assuming there’s any left over. My guess is they’re deep in the maw of Podesta’s stink-tank.
Qatar and Saudi Arabia are going to be fuming over their bad “investments” in Crooked Hillary.
The Clinton Crime Family is grooming The Spawn for a congressional run, in a desperate attempt to keep the payola rolling in.
http://nypost.com/2016/11/10/chelsea-clinton-being-groomed-to-run-for-congress/
They had some gov type saying she can’t understand how this can happen in such a diversified city.
I bet she said it from the safety of some well-secured office far from the disturbances. Let he go down and mingle with her fellow “progressives” and get a healthy dose of cultural enrichment.
Muricans can’t afford to pay even $100 a month in health insurance costs, yet most refuse to make the kind of diet and lifestyle changes that would help ensure greater health, wellness, and longevity.
http://www.infowars.com/poll-half-of-america-cant-afford-more-than-100-a-month-on-health-insurance/
Trump’s election is a signal victory for populist-nationalist parties and leaders in Europe, as the corrupt and feckless neoliberal establishment and its oligarch controllers clutch at their pearls in horror.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/donald-trump-geert-wilders-president-win-response-patriotic-spring-europe-revolution-take-country-a7408931.html
““In the hours after Donald Trump was elected US president, the Canadian immigration website crashed and google searches on moving to New Zealand rocketed.” Good riddance. Of course that’s wishful thinking, these losers won’t ever actually bother to go through with it.
‘you’d be surprised how many countries are unenthusiastic about acquiring new former-American citizens’
But you’re a foaming at the mouth racist if you suggest the US should control immigration.
if you suggest the US should control immigration ??
We have immigration laws…Why have they not been enforced for the last 16 years ??
LOLZ
Double plus good LOLZ
Try 36 years.
LOLZ
Think about the hypocrisy. These self-righteous articles telling US citizens to stay home because they elected someone who wants to control immigration!
And in Canada - you need an ID to vote…
Funny that people think you can just waltz into Canada or NZ and they will welcome you with open arms. Last time I saw they had pretty strict immigration rules. NZ won’t let you in at all unless you can speak English.
I looked into moving to Mexico years ago, prior to the cartel take-over. You had to have documented outside income to support yourself and you had to prove it again every three months. Oh, and you can’t vote or even publicly criticize the government. Who calls Mexico racist?
Mexicans are tired of being under the thumb of crime:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/11/mexico-vigilantes-killings-public-support
Doesn’t Mexico also have laws which prevent foreigners from owning real estate within 50 miles of the ocean, or something like that?
That has been changed
No country welcomes parasites and n’er-do-wells.
Except the US.
Trump says he wants to deport the illegal immigrants, but allow them to apply for citizenship and come back.
I’m not as nice. Willfully trampling our country’s laws disqualifies you from ever becoming a citizen. Ever.
Actions have consequences.
“See you at the bill signing.”
Bet on it.
I feel the same way. Those who follow the law have rights, too.
OTOH, if NAFTA goes by the boards, people can go back to Mexico and have a chance to prosper in their own country. Or at least get by.
I’m pretty sure if you get deported from *any* first-world country — they’re never going to let you back in. Most likely not even as a tourist.
People in the USA whine about, “If we deport them, what about families being split up?”
My answer — you should have thought about that before you decided to become a criminal in a foreign country. Now you have to deal with it.
Heck, in Mexico it is a felony to be an illegal immigrant. They take it seriously down there.
If you don’t want people coming here as refugees or illegals or H1Bs or whatever, pay attention to those actions taken by the government and businesses that facilitate this sort of thing.
There are many things you can do about this stuff in small but effective ways.
For example, NAFTA is a huge culprit behind illegal immigration. People who were happy to live in Mexico on subsistence farms could no longer feed themselves or their families. Many had no choice but to go where the work is and so they came here, many of them driving the housing malinvestment by working in construction for less than citizens. I read that GW Bush had an unspoken agreement with Mexico that the US could be used as a pressure valve, and started the custom of looking the other way as illegals poured across the border.
Did anyone bother to at least contact their Senators and Representatives to express their displeasure and request the repeal of NAFTA? Did anyone push for “official English”?
As to the drugs, did you walk away from family or friends who just couldn’t seem to stop their habit? Hard to do, I know, I’ve been there, but for the sake of sanity and community and future generations, it has to be done.
Are you on FB? Delete your account. Do you buy on Amazon? Find it somewhere else. It may cost a little more time and effort and even $$, but isn’t it worth to have more of a secure future in the US? Buy New Balance foot wear. In fact a buddy of mine cured his plantar fasciitis by switching from Reebok to New Balance. Don’t patronize Disney. Your children may hate you at first, but in the future they will thank you.
Help end the refugee rackets by encouraging your Congresscritters to end the subsidies to Catholic Charities and other such organizations, who get paid for dumping refugees on communities. If you’re a member of a religious organization that is involved in one of these rackets, speak up. Or don’t give until the government ends the subsidy. Why should they double-dip you?
My point is, there are many small things you can do and encourage others to do to change the situations that face us today. Many here have already suggested something as simple as cutting the cable, and that’s a good start.
New Zealand indeed is difficult. I know someone who has lived and worked there for two decades. After repeatedly having to go through the hassle of renewing his legal authorization to be in the country, he eventually renounced his U.S. citizenship.
I can’t imagine a significant number of Americans moving to a country where people drive on the left.
What is the best source for information about average rent (and in particular, if its going up or down) in the Las Vegas metro area? Thanks in advance.
Craig’s list.
TALK TO A REALTOR
What should I say to him?
Start with telling him you already know he is a liar.
Actually that is the end of the conversation.
If their lips are moving, they’re lying!
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/10/31/cheaper-rents-in-new-york-san-francisco-other-cities-incentives-pile-up-new-apartments-flood-market/
Trulia and Zillow have decent data. I have yet to find any data source that I think is truly reliable. I would talk to a realtor.
from ZH
“Nevada Senator Harry Reid released the following statement about the election of Donald Trump as the 45th president of the United States:
“White nationalists, Vladimir Putin and ISIS are celebrating Donald Trump’s victory, while innocent, law-abiding Americans are wracked with fear…”
So a white person who loves the USA is a terrorist, a commie, guilty, a and a criminal. Oh and a sinner. Thanks for being so plain Harry.
BTW Harry, I think you’ve been a grifter for a very long time. I will not be sorry if you are inconvenienced.
“White nationalists, Vladimir Putin and ISIS are celebrating Donald Trump’s victory, while innocent, law-abiding Americans are wracked with fear…”
Hrm, which of these am I….
Can I be Vladimir Putin? Sweet, I’ll be him. Y’all can be the white nationalists, ‘k?
Back to my celebrating….
Keep stacking.
http://www.shtfplan.com/conspiracy-fact-and-theory/the-radical-left-seems-ready-to-go-to-war-as-count-claims-hillary-won-the-popular-vote_11112016
More Troubling Signs For NYC Real Estate As Rent Concessions Soar
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-10/more-troubling-signs-nyc-real-estate-rent-concession-soar
The collectivist kleptocrats and their oligarch puppetmasters can’t “redistribute the wealth” from the productive as long as those pesky bitter clingers have the means to resist. Forward!
http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/10/soros-funded-ammo-control-passes-in-california/
Neocon “national security efforts” have their panties in a twist about having a non-neocon in the White House.
http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-win-national-security-2016-11
Will the Community Reinvestment Act be repealed in the first 100 days?
Hopefully
No mo free Sht
no more corporate welfare!! Hear that GE, Exxon, Boeing, Alcoa, WalMart!! Trump is on it@!
Just defend it.
No filibuster can stop it.
Defund it…
Ben, can you please apply for a job with Trump’s administration to replace Mel Watt? You know the nuts and bolts of housing better than most.
That would be some sweet justice!
The FHFA, Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac, et al will not exist after Trump’s first 100 days.
Mel Watt’s predecessor, Edward DeMarco, was much better. He stood for principle rather than political expedience.
“However, she remained hopeful that her detractors represented “the dying moans of the dragon known as the patriarchy being stabbed again and again in the stomach.”
http://www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2016/11/11/lena-dunham-blames-self-hating-white-women-violent-privilege-trump-victory/
These future cat ladies, as they eke out a miserable lonely existence in their dotage, are going to curse their younger selves for a lifetime of bad choices and bankrupt ideologies.
Lena Dunham is deplorable.
“Lena Dunham is deplorable.”
Take that back!
Hillary forever gave “deplorable” a positive connotation. Pick another word, friendo.
Ben Franklin said so much incorrect stuff was written within 6 months of the revolution that no one would remember what really happened. I’d say we’re at that point about this election and not a week has passed. I encourage everyone to make a mental note of what went down. One thing that blows me away: both parties made active efforts to control the nominations. The DNC was totally working for Clinton and the RNC was telling us the party picked the nominee. One thing is sure: this democracy we’ve got ain’t what we thought it was.
And the press: oh boy, the notion that they are independent or unbiased is a gone pecan. So both parties are rigged, the press is rigged. Dang, we’ve got quite a mess here. And the President urging illegal immigrants to vote, and he had the nerve to mention the sanctity of the vote! I don’t even know how one begins to address it all.
how one begins to address it all.
By going to work every day and spending time in the mountains and with family, and getting on with my life, which half of people I know on FB seem now incapable of…
There seem to be many who have been shocked along the way that the rigging on this thing got all tangled up and failed. I think the beginning is to call things by their right name, and I hope we hear more of that.
Interestingly, the GOP nominee arguably was not a Republican. And the strongest Democratic candidate, Sanders, wasn’t a Democrat. And their ideas in some ways were similar. Yet we’re still pitched the conventional left-right narrative.
The country will benefit if the two major parties dissolve and are replaced by new entities. And even an institution as boring and unimaginative as the modern corporate media will adapt.
Off the top of my head, the closest I can come up with is the 1% Party and the 99% Party.
Remember how in the beginning, the TEA Party and Occupy Wall Street were eerily similar? Then the TEA party was taken over by the GOP, and OWS was taken over by hippies. Anything to keep them away from each other. Those oligarchs definitely do NOT want to proles to unite against them.
‘Remember how in the beginning, the TEA Party and Occupy Wall Street were eerily similar? Then the TEA party was taken over by the GOP, and OWS was taken over by hippies. Anything to keep them away from each other. Those oligarchs definitely do NOT want to proles to unite against them.’
My understanding is that OWS got taken down once they were clamoring for more taxes on the stock trade industry. That was a deathblow platform for them to take.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupy_Wall_Street
You’re right, beginner. The PTB got real scared at the idea of a Tobin tax. But you can’t kick out protesters on the grounds of belief. The PTB finally managed to kick out OWS on sanitation grounds.
And the President urging illegal immigrants to vote,
Hey Ben, I listened to that interview, and came away with a different impression: I thought that the President avoided asking the question that was asked (as politicians so often do), and answered a slightly different one; the answer he gave as “If you vote, you are a citizen, …”—meaning that only citizens would be able to vote, and those citizens didn’t have to worry about their undocumented families being deported as a result. In other words, he answered a slightly different question than asked, and addressed it only to anchor-babies. That was my take, anyway.
“…of the millenials, dreamers, undocumented citizens – and I call them citizens because they contribute to this country – are fearful of voting,” an interviewer told the president. “So if I vote, will immigration know where I live? Will they come for my family and deport us?”
“Not true,” Obama reassured. “And the reason is first of all when you vote you are a citizen yourself. And there is not a situation where the voting rolls somehow are transferred over and people start investigating, et cetera. The sanctity of the vote is strictly confidential.”
It’s on the U tube.
That interviewer threw so many loaded questions at the President that I have no idea which one he answered. ISTM that the President answered only the last question. Voter’s addresses were not shared with INS, and why should it be? Voters are citizens and INS doesn’t need to know where citizens live. That’s all Obama said.
The rest of it is balderdash.
Read it again. The girl says the illegals are citizens because they contribute. Obama says they are citizens because the are voting. Not that they are voting because they are citizens.
Obama says they are citizens because the are voting.
The interviewer clearly uses her own definition of “citizen”—an entirely bogus, made-up one. In Obama’s answer, he sounds to me as though he is qualifying his answer to only apply to the families of true citizens—e.g. the actual definition of citizens. Or at least, that’s how it sounded to my ears. YMMV.
Voting doesn’t “make” you a citizen. Obama was saying that being able to vote is “proof” that you’re a citizen; that is, that you must have already been on the citizenship rolls in order to even register.
I’m positive that Obama knows this nuance VERY well.
link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fOSZf_YHlY
I think we all kind of knew that the DNC and RNC “powers” had their favorites, and that those candidates either implicitly or explicitly were given an advantage by those groups.
And I think we all kind of knew that the media was biased.
And while this election made it clear that all three were true, I think the media came out looking the worst.
Sharing debate questions before the debate? Running articles past campaigns before going to print? Just the tone and demeanor of the anchors during election night was enlightening (and pretty funny–poor, poor Wolf Blitzer…I wonder if he is still in his chair in a catatonic state).
The press should NO LONGER get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to reporting on anything remotely related to politics…they are more corrupt than they have ever been.
+infinity, RW. The media has shown its true color, and it is corruption.
So…is trust in the media something that can ever be reclaimed? Through what mechanism?
Is there any reason to trust any of the media, even those that seem to be the “good guys”?
Picking their favorite over the will of the voters kind of blew up on the DNC, no?
The reaction is as good as after the brexit vote. They are so fooking predictable.
Can someone challenge Trump’s victory in London high court?
Haha… actress Lena Dunham’s teeth.
How is Draghi going to justify NIRP when PIIGS bonds are doing this?
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Bond/TMBMKIT-10Y?countrycode=BX
Or worse…
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/%e2%80%98prediction-professor%e2%80%99-who-called-trump%e2%80%99s-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/ar-AAkbsjd
I believe this. Trump has too many enemies in both parties.
And the GOP *really* wants Pence.
Don’t be silly.
I personally don’t see impeachment as a likely prospect for Trump.
So…I’d say the verdict is in on hope n’ change….
http://nypost.com/2016/11/10/obamas-main-legacy-the-collapse-of-the-democratic-party/
Just like W.
Decades in the making, instead of trying to appeal to voters in an honest way, they chose corruption and trying to buy their support. I’m not convinced at this point they know any alternative. They’ve lost the classical liberals who have migrated to the alt-right. They lost the middle class, they lost workers who have seen their jobs offshored and their wages decline thanks to uncontrolled migration. Theyve watched their cities and neighborhoods decline due to lawlessness. RINOs are guilty of not stopping this stuff in their tracks. Trump has the potential to remake the political landscape for generations. Regressive dems need to be extricated from power, go back to the mafia, drug smuggling or union thugging.
Did you start a violence today and blame it on Trump?
http://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/realestate/ct-re-1113-kenneth-harney-column-20161110-column.html
Freddie Mac plans to stop using pesky appraisals, which are expensive and take too long. Instead the process will be automated.
For those of us who have followed Ben since 2005 or earlier, I finally feel like we went off the cliff. Keep your assets in cash, keep the powder dry.
I hope Trump can do as he says! I am all for lower taxes and more spending on infrastructure, destroying ISIS and ending the Bush Wars. As well as bringing back the trillions held overseas with a one-time tax. ( too bad I dont get any tax breaks for holding money in Ireland.) AND of course lowering health insurance costs on day 1! Exciting times and inflation is coming!
how can you lower taxes when we are already running huge deficits?
It is amazing the cutting spending doesn’t even enter your thought process…
I can see significant spending cuts when and if we back off of all these foreign wars.
But didn’t Trump say he was going to undertake a big military expansion? How does that square with bringing our troops home?
Trump can, he knows more about this stuff then we do.
And he is Pro-like, so more criminals and cheap prison labor in the future.
You make the deficits YUGE-er.
I will be interested in what they do on taxes. My hope is that Paul Ryan dusts off the tax plan that was in Simpson Bowles, which was intended to be revenue neutral, but I suspect we will be running larger deficits, as the tax plan will NOT be revenue neutral.
Lola do you really believe wages will triple or quadruple to meet massively inflated housing prices?
Of course not.
Housing prices will continue falling to dramatically lower and more affordable levels wages. It’s how the world works.
Yes, Trump can do it!
Remember… A house is a depreciating asset that takes money from your wallet every day you own it.
SHOCKING VIDEO: California High School Student BRUTALLY BEATEN For Supporting Trump
Published on Nov 10, 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6MDq9y8xoc
The tolerance of liberals and the left.
Imagine if the races were reversed.
And they wonder why guns sales are hitting new records each month.
What’s up with these feral negros? Should be expelled permanently.
To all the protesters paid and otherwise who will march tonight, there is something I would like you to know…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1wOK9yGUYM
Speaking as a New Zealander, we are a real country with our own problems, not some mythical Hobbit utopia for people to flee to when they’ve ballsed up their own back yard. This is our home, not your escape-hatch from reality.
Please take in our precious snowflakes. They will culturally enrich you beyond measure. Their social welfare costs - they are utterly incapable of being self-sufficient or value-added - will be offset by their earnestness in propagating their collectivist utopian visions to all and sundry who will listen.
Elon Musk, Gate, Buffet…snow flakes?
you mean poor people, not liberals.
‘when they’ve ballsed up their own back yard’
That was the attitude of a guy in the last article. I’m curious what’s your opinion on the recent election?
It’s not just this election. Happened in 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 as well, and no doubt will happen again in 2020. Every time anything goes wrong, or people don’t get their own way on something, it’s all ‘lalalala we’ll just move to New Zealand!’ with no apparent consideration that there are already inhabitants in place who are real people, not happy hobbit villagers, and who may have a different opinion as to this. Columnist in the quoted article - nail on head.
‘no apparent consideration that there are already inhabitants in place’
Then you may understand why people who live in border states like where I live are tired of the constant flow of human smuggling from the south. Almost 3,000 migrants have died in the desert near Tucson in the last 20 years. There are cartel murders here - the really grisly stuff. Most people don’t know the cartels make more money smuggling people than drugs, and these cartels are really bad news. Not to mention the increased crime, burden on social services, etc.
FYI, I used to be an open border libertarian until I moved 30 miles from Mexico for 5 years. I completely changed my outlook because down there it is basically come and go in a 150 mile band. It’s all screwed up and I realized you can have a safety net, or open borders, but not both. So please understand that is where the primary support for Trump came from. The other candidate was for open borders.
And I have no desire to move to New Zealand. I am too attached to the direction my toilet flushes.
I’ve sometimes mulled over the thought experiment of ‘what would happen if all borders everywhere were opened?’ Initial movement would be to the usual suspects where the demand is now, and some countries would be severely depopulated, and the movement would be highly dependent on the financial resources of the migrants, and how they make a living. The immediate influx to countries like Norway and New Zealand would crush us like bugs, and probably trigger echo diasporas. Where would things settle five years after the experiment began?
When I moved away from Mexico in 2004, there were something like 100 million Mexicans living on $2 per day. And around half of those were living on $1 per day. The real question should be, why can’t Mexico and Central America get their economies in shape? There isn’t any reason they couldn’t. They have natural resources, human resources. Climate, proximity to trading partners.
I’ve been to Mexico: it sucks. And it’s getting more violent. I have no desire to have more millions of them become US citizens. And all the while I can’t go down there and live even if I wanted to. It’s illegal.
‘Silicon Valley won’t take this sitting down. Shervin Pishevar, co-founder of transportation startup Hyperloop One, has promised to fund a campaign for California to become its own nation. Supporters are working on an initiative to put a referendum for California secession on the 2018 ballot. On Wednesday, residents gathered in front of the capitol building in Sacramento to rally for independence.’
‘Whether or not secession works out, people like Altman have plenty of backup plans. In an earlier interview with the New Yorker, Altman explained his preparations for the apocalypse: “I have guns, gold, potassium iodide, antibiotics, batteries, water, gas masks from the Israeli Defense Force, and a big patch of land in Big Sur I can fly to.” Plan B is to fly to New Zealand with billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel.’
‘Okay, this is why half the country hates the wealthy elite. They can muck things up all they want, and simply leave when the going gets tough. And they love to experiment with other people’s lives. Thiel cofounded the Seasteading Institute, a movement to build independently governed floating cities. Larry Page has designs on a regulation-free Google Island, Elon Musk plans to colonize Mars, and Tim Draper wants to carve up California and turn Silicon Valley into a ministate.’
‘It became the world’s sixth largest economy thanks in large part to transfers from the rest of the country. The Bay Area tech industry received much of its early funding from the U.S. Navy for things like radios and aeronautics research, which created demand for vacuum tubes and San Jose’s mercury mines. The biggest buyers of early silicon circuits were the Department of Defense and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.’
‘Secessionists point out that California receives only 94 cents in federal spending for every dollar it pays in income tax. Yet leaving could sever crucial ties to the rest of the country. Southern California gets most of its water from the Colorado River in Arizona, and the entire state’s natural gas and oil supply arrives through pipelines coming from Texas. Many California-based companies are incorporated in Delaware, for the lower tax rates.’
‘In theory, state representatives could negotiate independent trade agreements, but this would cost a lot more than the 6 percent of California tax dollars that go to other parts of the union (there’s something to be said for economies of scale). Plus, the new Republic of California wouldn’t survive a foreign invasion unless it built its own military or became the protectorate of another nation.’
Don’t listen to this Bloomberg writer California. You must form your own state. Arizonans won’t cut off your water. Promise.
‘Okay, this is why half the country hates the wealthy elite. They can muck things up all they want, and simply leave when the going gets tough.
News flash, oligarchs: we proles have a little something called the Internet to get around your captured media. So when you jet off to New Zealand or Chile or whatever, it’s a good bet the local populist proles will be waiting to greet you with pitchforks and torches.
‘You must form your own state. ‘
With their own militia and weapons too? Wonder how that will pencil out.
CA can take WA and OR with it. NO food or wine, unless you play nice.
CA can take WA and OR with it. NO food or wine
No, please don’t lump WA with California. I’m okay with giving them Oregon, but Washington actually is self-sufficient with fresh water, farming, cattle, and wine.
OK, but they have to take Nevada with them.
CA can take WA and OR with it. NO food or wine
CA up north has all the water, central valley all the sun. Lots of oil, solar power, wind power, sil valley, Hollywood… best universities in the county, JPL, Stanford, Cal Tech, Berk, UCSD, UCLA,…. navy, marines…. CA will be more than Fine. Yosemite will be $100 a day for out of state tourists.
but Washington actually is self-sufficient with fresh water, farming, cattle, and wine.
I thought the Republic of Cascadia only encompassed the portion from the Cascades west-ward… In that case, WA wouldn’t have wine after all, unless we can continue to buy grapes from the eastern portion of ex-WA.
Republic of Cascadia
Whoah, I wasn’t aware there was an independence movement for Cascadia! I was just responding to the comment about CA taking OR and WA with it…
What’s been the attitude over the years to immigration from South Africa? When I was in SA back in 2000 it seemed like talented people of all races wanted to leave, and your country and Australia were the top destinations.
What happens to the Fed’s asset bubbles when the bond market forces Yellen the Felon to jack up interest rates?
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/11/11/government-bond-rout-inflation-trade-greater-fool-as-trump-looms/
when the bond market forces Yellen the Felon to jack up interest rates?
How does the bond market repricing bonds force the Fed to do anything?
Gotta feel sorry for Huma. Married to a perv, has worked for no one since Hillary since she was a 19-year-old intern. She seems to have been a conscientious and competent “girl Friday” for Hillary, who is not my favorite person, but I wish Huma well despite all that.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3928032/Huma-breaks-weeps-openly-returns-campaign-headquarters-aides-ran-doomed-bid-elect-Hillary-Clinton.html
When you have an unfortunate ride, the best thing that can happen is to do something else.
Why do all the Red states take more from the Fed then they give back? moochers sock!
That’s a bunch of crap. I was looking at a color map of the county votes and the entire Rio Grande Valley in Texas was Democrat. I lived down there and something like 90% of the people are on federal assistance of some sort. And if the feds didn’t let the illegals come in we wouldn’t have to pay that at all. They stopped Arizona from closing the freebies to illegals too. Of course, that’s all about to change.
And do you remember why Arizona became the western gateway for human smuggling? Because California has more powerful Democratic congresspeople who shut down the border near San Diego, so they run around through Arizona.
It’s not a conversation, not with this dude.
you cherry picked and pulled out a county. I said state.
Dont rent to illegals, dont hire them then they dont come here.
I dont want to lose my housekeeper though, she is different.
“I dont want to lose my housekeeper though, she is different.”
Hehe… Arnold?
Workfare !
Because California has more powerful Democratic congresspeople who shut down the border near San Diego, so they run around through Arizona.”
That’s how they do it let the middle class deal with it so they don’t have to.
And then wag their finger at Arizonans and call them racists for trying to stop it. Why don’t they just open the gates to Tijuana if they are so progressive?
Why do you think CA is full of missionaries? It is dog eat dog in mos t of CA>
POTUS = Orange is the new Black!
Hillary lost because of James Comey, not because of her 30-year trail of scandals and corruption. What is it with sociopaths and their pathological refusal to accept personal accountability?
http://www.businessinsider.com/clinton-campaign-fbi-director-james-comey-2016-11
Ever see the vote broken down my college grads vs non-grads? That says a lot about what the success people want vs the down and out hoping to be rescued.
Since when are victims studies majors working as baristas considered ’success people’ ?
John Fogerty Blue Moon Nights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CaKmjFL1F8
I’m sorry that John Fogerty song was supposed to go out to new attitude.
Correct the Record trolls, we hardly knew ye….
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/11/thank-donald-trump-hillarys-nasty-paid-internet-trolls-get-canned/
As predicted:
“Slowly but surely, Democrats had been losing their foothold in eastern and southern Ohio. On Tuesday, Donald Trump delivered the knockout blow.
Trump, now president-elect, ran at least 10 percentage points better than 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney in 42 counties, most of them situated in that Appalachia-encompassing region, according to a cleveland.com analysis of unofficial election results.”
http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/11/appalachia_fueled_donald_trump.html#incart_most-comments
SERFS
These are not protests they are Hissy Fits.
Trump supporters show up and burn something to make em all look bad, know the game, play the game.
The special snowflake pantywaists don’t need any help to look bad.
Trump supporters show up and burn something to make em all look bad, know the game, play the game.
If I was Ben I would ban you, since you add nothing of value to this site and are just a troll intent on spewing lies and DNC talking points. Then again, that makes you an object lesson in what “progressives” really are: crap weasels.
They created so much credit / debt they have to keep rates at zero just to keep it serviceable.
Trump voters produce! They are tired of people riding their coattails!
clintonites want to create more debt. Trump people want to work.
In the end, Crooked Hillary couldn’t muster enough freeloader votes to overcome the loathing decent Americans held for her, or their desire for REAL hope and change.
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/michael-tracey-epic-nature-hillary-collapse-article-1.2869736
“They called us sexists, homophobes, demagogues and populists,” Mr. Grillo wrote in a blog post. “They don’t realize that millions of people already no longer read their newspapers and no longer watch their television.”
Cancel your subscriptions to MSM periodicals and newpapers. Cancel your cable TeeVee. STARVE THE BEAST!
Change da coming?
New York Times publisher vows to ‘rededicate’ paper to reporting honestly
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/12/new-york-times-publisher-vows-to-rededicate-itself-to-reporting-honestly.html
Oligarch-owned media is incapable of doing anything other than propagating The Narrative.
The long knives are coming out in the Democratic Party as the “progressives” turn on the crony capitalist, corporate Establishment types who tried to foist Crooked Hillary on the nation.
http://www.businessinsider.com/democratic-party-civil-war-clinton-loss-trump-2016-11
So much for all those celebrity pledges to leave America.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3927506/Celebrities-promised-leave-Canada-decide-stay-just-coincidence-Trump-planning-tax-cuts.html
Sorry America, we’re not leaving! Celebrities who had promised to leave for Canada and beyond decide to stay
Those who made hasty U-turns include Miley Cyrus, Whoopi Goldberg, Amy Schumer, Bryan Cranston and Chelsea Handler
Others have gone quiet, including Chloe Sevigny and Ne-Yo
Lena Dunham has still to address her pledge despite a 1,700-word jeremiad on how watching Clinton lose brought her out in hives
Hit The Road Jack (remastered)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8DRen60X10
How’s that collectivist kleptocracy working out for you, Zimbabwe?
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/11/zimbabweans-sleep-banks-cash-crisis-worsens-161111191648232.html
A preview of coming attractions as the banksters step up their war on cash.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/anger-rising-india-banks-slow-dispense-cash-millions-073107745.html
“Enemies of the People” (Winner of the 2010 Sundance Aaward): a documentary about the Khmer Rouge killing fields in Cambodia. This is what happens when collectivist hard-liners have free rein to impose their utopian lunacies on a populace with no means to resist. Forward!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nS54FTCMUR4
I don’t like this. Trump is already starting to go wobbly.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/12/donald-trump-appears-to-soften-stance-on-range-of-pledges
Is “uneducated” the new Hitler, Racist or Sexist when you denounce your right wing foes?
Trump is already walking back his campaign pledges. This isn’t good.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-nine-times-betrayed-voters-us-election-2016-mexico-clinton-muslims-a7413341.html
The barnacles on the ship of fools that was the Clinton corruption machine will now have to go out into the economy ravaged by the neoliberal policies the Clintons promoted and enabled and find gainful employment. Good luck with that, grifters!
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/11/11/hill-shattered-dreams-clintonworld-longtime-aides-left-jobless/